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on Arab World |
| By: | Halicioglu, Ferda |
| Abstract: | This research is aimed at establishing a bivariate long-run association between FIFA country ranking and domestic football competition level in the case of Turkey. To test this hypothesis empirically, coefficient of variation values are computed seasonally for Turkish Super League over 1994-2010. This variable along the FIFA ranking of Turkey in the same period are used in the framework of ARDL approach to cointegration. The empirical results suggest that a 1% increase in the domestic football competition level leads to 1.14% rise in the FIFA ranking of Turkey. The post-sample variance decompositions also confirm the long-run relationship. |
| Keywords: | football; FIFA ranking; cointegration; variance decomposition; Turkey |
| JEL: | Z00 C22 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35662&r=ara |
| By: | Altan Aldan; M. Faruk Aydin; Olcay Yucel Culha; Enes Sunel; Temel Taskin |
| Abstract: | [TR] 2003-2011 doneminde Turkiye’nin ihracat cesitlenmesi hem urun hem de ulke bazinda artmistir. Bu notta, ihracat cesitlenmesi, bolgesel bazda sektor ve sektorel bazda ulke cesitlenmesi dikkate alinarak detaylandirilmistir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, makine ve ulastirma, demir celik, giyim ve tekstil gibi ana sektorlerde ihracatta pazar cesitlenmesinin arttigina isaret etmektedir. Benzer sekilde, AB, Orta Dogu ve Kuzey Amerika basta olmak uzere, bolgelere yapilan ihracatta urun cesitlenmesi artmistir. Soz konusu bulgular, ihracatin herhangi bir bolge ve/veya sektorde meydana gelebilecek dissal soklara dayanikliliginin arttigi dusuncesini guclendirmektedir. [EN] Turkey has diversified her exports by sector as well as by markets in 2003-2011 period. In this note, we give a detailed analysis of export diversification by sectors within markets and by markets for different sectors. The results suggest that market diversification has been increased in main export sectors such as machinery and transportation, iron and steel, wearing apparels and textiles. Similarly, product diversification has been increased in main export markets such as EU, Middle East and North America. These findings indicate that Turkish exports have gained strength against external shocks observed for particular sectors and/or markets. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1218&r=ara |
| By: | Balli, Faruk; Basher, Syed Abul; Jean Louis, Rosmy |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates welfare gains and channels of risk sharing among 14 Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries, including the oil-rich Gulf region and the resource-scarce economies such as Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. The results show that, for the 1992--2009 period, the overall welfare gains across MENA countries are higher than those documented for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations. In the Gulf region, the amount of factor income smoothing does not differ considerably when output shocks are longer-lasting rather than transitory, whereas the amount smoothed by savings increases remarkably when shocks are longer-lasting. By contrast, both factor income flows and international transfers respond more to permanent shocks than to transitory shocks in the non-oil MENA countries. The results also show that a significant portion of shocks is smoothed via remittance transfers in the economically less developed MENA countries, but not in the oil-rich Gulf and OECD countries. Finally, for the overall MENA region, a large part of the shock remains unsmoothed, suggesting that more market integration is needed to remedy the weak link of incomplete risk-sharing. |
| Keywords: | MENA region; remittance transfer; risk sharing; welfare gain |
| JEL: | I31 E21 F36 E60 |
| Date: | 2012–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40739&r=ara |
| By: | Mahir Binici; Bulent Koksal |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Aralik 2002 sonrasi icin Turkiye’de banka kredilerindeki asiri genisleme donemleri alternatif kredi olçutleri dikkate alinarak tanimlanmakta ve soz konusu genislemelerle iliskili olan faktorler belirlenmektedir. Ozellikle getiri egrisindeki degisimler, reel doviz kuru, ABD faiz orani ve net sermaye girisleri ile asiri kredi genislemesi olasiligi arasinda guclu bir iliski bulunmustur. Sonuclar, bu faktorlerin finansal istikrari tehdit edebilecek asiri kredi genislemelerinin tahmininde onemli unsurlar olarak goz onune alinmasi gerektigini gostermektedir. [EN] By using different credit measures, this study identifies the credit booms in Turkey that have occurred after December 2002, and examines the related factors with these events. We find that the factors that have a strong correlation with the probability of a credit boom are the changes in the slope of the yield curve, reel exchange rate, US interest rate and net capital inflows. The results imply that these factors should be considered as important elements in forecasting such events that could threaten financial stability. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1215&r=ara |
| By: | D. Yıldırım, Burcu; Coskun, Yener; Caglar, Ozan; Yıldırak, Kasırga |
| Abstract: | Recent developments in Turkish derivatives markets demonstrate the increasing importance of risk management not only for individual banks but also for the entire system. In this context, this study analyzes the counterparty credit risk of OTC derivatives. The analysis is based on a hypothetical portfolio that is characterized by key aspects of the instruments banks hold. Thus, the portfolio consists of vanilla swaps, which dominate banks’ transactions. By simulating market risk factors, we come up with proxy risk exposure figures for the whole banking system. After a proper adjustment, these figures have been compared with the risk weighted assets, which includes credit risk,as well as with the capital. Consequently, we observe that the counterparty credit risk resulting from the use of OTC derivatives is relatively small for the Turkish banking system. Nevertheless, in light of the new regulatory framework introduced by Basel III, the importance of credit and market liquidity risk for the OTC instruments in trading portfolios is expected to increase in the near future. |
| Keywords: | Counterparty credit risk; OTC derivatives; swaps; Basel II; valuation |
| JEL: | C15 E44 G32 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40600&r=ara |
| By: | Murat Ungor |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma, basit bir uretim fonksiyonunu temel alarak Turkiye icin bir cikti acigi gostergesi hesaplamaktadir. 2005-2008 doneminde cikti aciginda pozitif duzey olusmus ve 2007 : Q4 donemi tepe noktasi olarak gozlenmistir. 2009 yilinda ise son kuresel krizin etkisiyle uretim duzeyi, potansiyel duzeyinin altinda yer almis ve cikti acigi 2009 : Q1 doneminde dip noktasina ulasmistir. Bu calismada ortaya konulan cikti acigi hesaplamalari, yeni Keynesyen bir model ve Bayesci yontem kullanilarak Turkiye’de cikti aciginin hesaplandigi, Alp, Ogunc ve Sarikaya (2012) calismasinin bulgulari ile karsilastirilmistir. Niceliksel olarak bazi farkliliklar gozlenmekle beraber; iki calismada da niteliksel olarak benzer cikti acigi bulgulari ortaya konmaktadir. [EN] This note estimates an output gap measure for Turkey using a production function approach relying on a simplistic representation of the production technology. There is a large positive swing in the output gap during 2005–2008 and output gap reached its peak in 2007 : Q4. Output level fell below its potential dramatically as a result of the global economic crisis in 2009 hitting a trough in 2009 : Q1 and negative output gap as a percentage difference from the potential output was around 12 percent. Output gap estimates in this note and the ones obtained in Alp, Ogunc, and Sarikaya (2012), using Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, exhibit a similar pattern qualitatively, whereas there are some differences in quantitative terms. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1219&r=ara |
| By: | Dirk Heine; John Norregaard; Ian W.H. Parry |
| Abstract: | This paper recommends a system of upstream taxes on fossil fuels, combined with refunds for downstream emissions capture, to reduce carbon and local pollution emissions. Motor fuel taxes should also account for congestion and other externalities associated with vehicle use, at least until mileage-based taxes are widely introduced. An examination of existing energy/environmental tax systems in Germany, Sweden, Turkey, and Vietnam suggests that there is substantial scope for policy reform. This includes harmonizing taxes for pollution content across different fuels and end-users, better aligning tax rates with values for externalities, and scaling back taxes on vehicle ownership and electricity use that are redundant (on environmental grounds) in the presence of more targeted taxes. |
| Keywords: | Cross country analysis , Energy taxes , Environmental protection , Germany , Sweden , Tax reforms , Tax system reviews , Turkey , Vietnam , |
| Date: | 2012–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/180&r=ara |
| By: | Insan Tunali (Department of Economics, Koç University); Emre Ekinci (Department of Business Administration, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Berk Yavuzoglu (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | We modify the Additively Non-ignorable (AN) model of Hirano et. al. (2001) so that it is suitable for data collection efforts that have a short panel component. Our modification yields a convenient semi-parametric bias correction framework for handling endogenous attrition and substitution behavior that can emerge when multiple visits to the same unit are planned. We apply our methodology to data from the Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) in Turkey, which shares a key design feature (namely a rotating sample frame) of popular surveys such as the Current Population Survey and the European Union Labor Force Survey. The correction amounts to adjusting the observed joint distribution over the state space using reflation factors expressed as parametric functions of the states occupied in subsequent rounds. Unlike standard weighting schemes, our method produces a unique set of corrected joint probabilities that are consistent with the margins used for computing the published cross-section statistics. Inference about the nature of the bias is implemented via Bootstrap methods. Our empirical results show that attrition/substitution in HLFS is a statistically and substantially important concern. |
| Keywords: | attrition; substitution; selectivity; short panel; rotating sample frame; labor force survey. |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1220&r=ara |
| By: | Malorgio, Giulio; Grazia, Cristina |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to provide a focused analysis of the competitiveness of fruit and vegetable exports of some south Mediterranean countries (Egypt and Morocco). We first provide a brief overview of the export flows to the international market aimed at analyzing the dynamics of destination markets and exported product range. Then, the competitiveness on the European (and Italian) market is analyzed. After an introductory analysis of the dynamics of Egypt and Morocco shares on EU (and Italian) F&V imports over the period 2000-2010 per product category, a Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA) is developed. This method enables to further analyze the trade performance by decomposing the change in imports from Egypt and Morocco into different components (market size, commodity composition, and competitiveness effect). Finally, we provide a discussion on the substitutability / complementarity between imports from Egypt and Morocco and Italian production and on the possible price and non-price competitiveness factors. This discussion is further developed by an analysis of third countries’ capacity to comply with food safety requirements of the Italian market. A final discussion on the possibilities of North-South cooperation in then provided. |
| Keywords: | Mediterranean Countries, fruit and vegetable exports, competitiveness, Constant Market Share Analysis, food quality and safety, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, F13, Q17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:isae12:130459&r=ara |
| By: | Ianchovichina, Elena; Estache, Antonio; Foucart, Renaud; Garsous, Gregoire; Yepes, Tito |
| Abstract: | In the next 10 years or so, the infrastructure sector has the potential to generate significant employment. This paper estimates annual job creation of about 2.0 million in direct jobs and 2.5 million in direct, indirect and induced infrastructure-related jobs just by meeting the infrastructure investment needs of about 6.9 percent of gross domestic product (about US$106 billion) for the Middle East and North Africa region on average. The breakdown in expected needs is 11 percent in developing oil exporters, 6 percent in oil importing countries, and 5 percent in the Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters. Needs are particularly high in electricity and roads. While important, infrastructure job creation will not resolve the region's unemployment problem alone and its job creation potential varies greatly across countries. Moreover, the current ability to finance and hence meet the infrastructure needs varies significantly across countries. Oil importers are likely to fall short under business as usual scenarios. In a region in which the public sector is the main source of infrastructure financing, fiscal choices will thus matter to job creation through infrastructure. But there are more challenges, including the governance of job creation, and the proper targeting and costing of subsidies for job creation and the (re)training programs needed. Managing expectations will also matter, as infrastructure jobs will help but will not solve the region's unemployment and underemployment problems. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Labor Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics,Labor Policies |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6164&r=ara |
| By: | Elasrag, Hussein |
| Abstract: | Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have become one of the key instruments to face economic and social problems and achieve development objectives in most industrial and developing countries. SME contributions to employment creation, productivity improvement, and income generation are underutilized in the Arab countries at a time when economic transformation is shifting the onus for productivity from the public sector to the private sector. Population growth and economic restructuring in many Arab countries make the creation of substantial new employment opportunities a necessity. To do so, Arab enterprises must favorably face increased competition in both local and export market through improvements in product quality and work place efficiency. Sheer survival in theses business conditions forces both large companies and SMEs to restructure themselves in order to meet the global competition. Statistics show that SMEs represent 90% of total companies in the vast majority of economies worldwide and provide 40-80% of total job opportunities in addition to contributing largely to GDPs of many countries. The aim of this research is to study The developmental role of SMEs in the Arab countries. |
| Keywords: | Small and medium enterprises ;Arab countries;oil revenues |
| JEL: | E24 D20 E00 H3 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40608&r=ara |
| By: | Maystadt, Jean-François; Trinh Tan, Jean-François; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | Expectations are high that transition in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen will bring about more freedom, justice, and economic opportunities. However, experiences from other world regions show that countries in transition are at high risk of entering conflicts, which often come at large economic, social and political costs. In order to identify options on how conflict may be prevented in Arab transition countries, this paper assesses the key global drivers of conflicts based on a dataset from 1960 to 2010 and improved cross-country regression techniques. Results show that unlike in other studies where per capita incomes, inequality, and poor governance, among other factors, emerge as the major determinants of conflict, food security at macro- and micro-levels emerges as the main cause of conflicts in the Arab world. This "Arab exceptionalism in conflict" suggests that improving food security is not only important for improving the lives of rural and urban people; it is also likely to be the key for a peaceful transition. |
| Keywords: | food security, Transitional economies, Conflict, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1196&r=ara |
| By: | Dyrnes, Inger (IASS, Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the concept of socio-economic development needs to be redefined for the purpose of effective democracy promotion. By including aspects from human development theory, advocates of revised modernisation theory state that mass values in a society shift towards a preferance for democracy as higher levels socio-economic development provide existential security. This implies that a democratic culture shapes its institutions and not the other way around. If donor countries are willing to make long-term investments in human resources rather than focus on short-term improvements of state institutions, effective democracy may stand a better chance of developing. |
| Keywords: | democratisation, human development theory, socio-economic development, foreign development aid, USAID, Egypt, Middle East, foreign policy, international relations, governance, civil society, institutional development, economic policy, judicial reform |
| JEL: | O15 F59 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2012045&r=ara |
| By: | Alakbarov, Naib |
| Abstract: | Here is estimated the effect of monetary union and the exchange rate volatility on trade. First of all, Frankel and Rose (1997, 1998) have developed the idea that the suitability of European countries for the EMU cannot be judged on the basis of historical data. I use an augmented gravity model to estimate the effects of currency unions and exchange rate volatility on trade. The model is “augmented” in that the standard gravity model only includes income and distance variables. The estimated results show that two countries that use the same currency trade more, but it can be seen that the currency union effect of trade is not large. These findings are similar to those in Nardis and Vicarelli (2003). That is, they are not as large as those found in Rose (2000) and Glick and Rose (2002). The effect of the variable of ECU is also positive und significant. These findings are similar to those in Berger and Nitsch (2005), which claim that the potential trade-creating affects of the EMU must be viewed and analyzed in the proper historical perspective. -- |
| Keywords: | Currency Areas,Lucas Critique,Trade Integration,gravity equation |
| Date: | 2012–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:60464&r=ara |
| By: | Benner, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | The development of Abu Dhabi and Dubai during past years seems breathtaking. Both emirates pursue a strategy of diversifying their economic structure and thus of becoming less dependent on oil and gas. The obvious goal is to secure their prosperity for an era beyond oil. Diversification is a relevant strategic imperative for other resource-rich developing countries, too. In view of the current transformation processes in Arab countries the question whether differing strategies of the two emirates can pose a model for other countries becomes highly significant. |
| Keywords: | Abu Dhabi; Dubai; diversification; industrialization; industrial policy |
| JEL: | O25 O10 L78 L71 O20 O14 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40746&r=ara |
| By: | Crescimanno, Maria; Galati, Antonino |
| Abstract: | The Mediterranean has always been an area of strategic interest for the European Union (EU), since its establishment, has woven with his partners of the South and East of the Mediterranean a dense network of relationships, by signing agreements cooperation, first, and association, then. The study aims to present an evolutionary picture of the agro-food trade network between the countries of the EU's Mediterranean partners and his neighbours in North Africa and the Near East. Using specific indicators, widely used in the economic literature that analyse trade in sectors, however, different from the agro-food, to measure the intensity of the trade. In particular, the analysis by the application of bilateral trade indices according to Frankel and Rose (1997) and Traistaru (2004) showed, on the whole, a progressive weakening of the intensity of agro-food trade in the period 1996-2010. The analysis of indices of intensity of bilateral trade between the partners in the area, helped to identify the main factors that regulate the commercial relations, and in particular the historical and colonial relations, as in the case of France, and physical distance, which determines the phenomena of border trade. Conversely, the Association Agreements and the Stabilisation and Association Agreement signed between the EU on the one hand, and the Mediterranean partners, on the other, have played a marginal role in almost all trade in food products, distinguishing itself not a relation between the positive trend of the intensity of trade and the signing and entry into force of the agreements. |
| Keywords: | Trade Intensity, Agro-food products, Mediterranean countries, Euro-Med Policy, Agribusiness, Financial Economics, International Relations/Trade, Q170, F140, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:isae12:130449&r=ara |
| By: | Tobias Lechtenfeld (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates why household connections to piped water supply can increase diarrheal diseases among under-5-year-old children. Using a unique mix of household data, microbiological test results and spatial information from urban Yemen it is possible to distinguish the adverse impacts of malfunctioning water pipes from unhygienic household behavior on water pollution and health outcomes. The analysis consists of three parts: First, exogenous variation of pipe construction is used to quantify the health impact of access to piped water, which is found to increase the risk of child diarrhea by 4.6 percentage points. Second, by exploiting the spatial correlation of pollution among households connected to the same water pipe, it is shown that broken pipes and interruptions of water supply are responsible for most of the water pollution. Third, unhygienic water storage and handling at household level additionally increases water pollution. These results show for the first time that water rationing can jeopardize the intended health benefits of access to clean drinking water. Importantly, these results apply to most urban areas in Africa and the Middle East where water resources are limited and water supply is frequently interrupted. |
| Keywords: | Water and Sanitation; Diarrhea; Child Health; Impact Evaluation; Yemen |
| JEL: | I38 O12 O16 |
| Date: | 2012–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:119&r=ara |
| By: | Serhan Cevik; Katerina Teksoz |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms - strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets - would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy , Inflation , Interest rates on loans , Currency pegs , Bank credit , Economic growth , Economic conditions , Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf , |
| Date: | 2012–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/191&r=ara |
| By: | Velez, Carlos E.; Al-Shawarby, Sherine; El-Laithy, Heba |
| Abstract: | This paper provides relevant indicators and measurements useful for public policies seeking the expansion of equitable human development opportunities for Egyptian children and youth. To measure equitable access to opportunities, the authors use the Human Opportunity Index to examine the evolution of 16 basic opportunity indicators grouped in four sectors: education, basic housing services, early childhood development, and nutrition and hunger. The main findings show that during the last decade most opportunities for children and youth improved unambiguously,for the first two sectors, but were stagnant for nutrition and early childhood development opportunities. Although the urban-rural and interregional gaps were partially reduced, there are still substantial opportunity gaps between children in favorable and unfavorable circumstances. Parents'education, income per capita, urban-rural location, number of siblings, and regional location, are the five most important factors affecting equality of opportunity, although their impact varies across indicators. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Primary Education,Early Child and Children's Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Regional Economic Development |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6159&r=ara |