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on Arab World |
| By: | Harun Alp; Selim Elekdag |
| Abstract: | As an emerging economy, Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit countries by the crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Taking the most intense year of the crisis as our baseline, namely 2009, counterfactual simulations indicate that rather than the actual contraction of –4.8 percent, the growth outturn would have been –6.2 percent if the CBRT had not implemented countercyclical and discretionary interest rate cuts. Further, if a fixed exchange rate regime was instead in place, then the counterfactual simulations indicate a growth rate of –8.0 percent in 2009. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis. These counterfactual experiments are based on an estimated structural model which along with standard nominal and real rigidities, include a financial accelerator mechanism in an open-economy framework. |
| Keywords: | Financial Accelerator, Bayesian Estimation, DSGE Model, Financial Crises, Sudden Stops, Monetary Policy, Turkey, Emerging Economies, Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | E5 F3 F4 C11 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1110&r=ara |
| By: | Kirdar, Murat G. (Middle East Technical University); Tayfur, Meltem Dayioglu (Middle East Technical University); Koc, Ismet (Hacettepe University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the extension of compulsory schooling in Turkey from 5 to 8 years on the marriage and fertility behavior of teenage women in Turkey using the 2008 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. We find that the new education policy reduces the probability of marriage and giving birth for teenage women substantially: the probability of marriage by age 16 is reduced by 44 percent and the probability of giving birth by age 17 falls by 36 percent. The effects of the education policy on the time until marriage and first-birth persist beyond the completion of compulsory schooling. In addition, we find that the delay in the time until first-birth is driven by the delay in the time until marriage. After a woman is married, the rise in compulsory schooling years does not have an effect on the duration until her first-birth. Finally, we find that the education policy was more effective in reducing early marriage than a change in the Civil Code aimed for this purpose. |
| Keywords: | age at marriage, fertility, education, compulsory schooling |
| JEL: | J12 J13 I20 D10 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5887&r=ara |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu |
| Abstract: | I analyse the Household Budget Surveys prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) to reveal the empirical importance of precautionary saving in Turkey. The most difficult aspect of the empirical analysis is the approximation of labour income risk as a proxy variable for future labour income uncertainty. Individual disposable income is interacted with the probability of being unemployed and with the probability of job-loss in the next period to generate the labour income risk variables. The econometric results support the precautionary saving hypothesis and labour income risk emerges as one of the main determinants of household saving decisions. Moreover, households implement alternative strategies to smooth their income streams such as holding a second job and increasing the number of income earners in the family. However, it is observed that they are still vulnerable against labour income risk, which underlines the need for a satisfactory social security system. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary Saving, Labour Income Risk, Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | D12 J65 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1109&r=ara |
| By: | Radwan, Amr; Gil, Jose Maria; Diab, Yaser A.A.; Abo-Nahoul, Mohamed A. |
| Abstract: | A very important pillar of the modernization of the Egyptian agriculture depends upon the exportation of the high value added products such as organic products. In spite of the importance of the organic agriculture within the Egyptian agriculture sector and up to our knowledge, it does not exist in Egypt until now any study that try to determine and analyze the determinant factors of the adaption of the organic agriculture within the Egyptian farms. In this study, we focus on this issue. A survey with a representative sample of organic and non-organic farms in Upper Egypt area was carried out. Using obtained data set we apply duration analysis techniques to assess the effect of different explanatory variables on both the adoption of organic agriculture farming and the timing of this adoption. Our results suggest that the maximum hazard of adopting organic agriculture takes place during the first few years after the construction of the farm and Manager characteristics such as his education level and Risk behaviour together with the farm size seem to be the most significant factors affecting the likelihood of organic agriculture adoption in Egypt.. These results could be helpful in designing the suitable policies and strategies to support the extension of organic agriculture within Egypt. |
| Keywords: | organic agriculture, duration analysis, Egypt, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C41, Q1, |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc11:108961&r=ara |
| By: | Chemak, Fraj |
| Abstract: | In order to cope with the water scarcity, Tunisia has to manage efficiently the demand of the economic and social sectors mainly that of the agricultural irrigated activities. Within this context our investigation aims to analyze the technical efficiency, the water use efficiency and the dynamic of the productivity of the irrigated areas in the Sidi Bouzid region. Hence, farm surveys, regarding the cropping years 2003 and 2007, were carried out. We have assessed the technology performance using the Data Envelopment Analysis approach and we have computed the Malmquist index in order to characterize the productivity change. Our empirical findings showed that the technical efficiency of the farms has increased by 17% during this period leading to an improvement of the water use efficiency up to 22%. Both, the technical efficiency change as well as the technical change have contributed to this improvement. However, the farmers have to enhance further their irrigated practices in order to save more water. Indeed, in 2007, the water use efficiency was only 78%. |
| Keywords: | Irrigated Area, Technical Efficiency, Water Use Efficiency, Productivity Change, Data Envelopment Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C14, Q12, Q25, |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae10:97046&r=ara |
| By: | Kashiwagi, Kenichi; Mtimet, Nadhem; Zaibet, Lokman; Nagaki, Masakazu |
| Abstract: | This study investigates firm level technical efficiency of production and its determinants in a sample of 137 olive oil manufacturing firms in Tunisia using a stochastic frontier production model applied to cross-section data. Results indicate that technical efficiency of production in the sample of olive oil manufacturing firms investigated ranges from a minimum of 47.1% to a maximum 99.5% with an average technical efficiency estimate of 86.5%. This implies olive oil manufacturing firms in Tunisia can increase their production on average by 13.5% through more efficient use of technology and production inputs. The fact that 93 firms represented more than 64.4% of the sample hit more than 80% of technical efficiency score implies the efficacy of modernization programme implemented in Tunisia. The estimated coefficients in the technical inefficiency effects model indicate that level of technology, frequent use of computer and internet, the ownerâs age, the share of skilled labour, the employment of management staff, and the input sourcing by the own production have a significant and positive effect on technical efficiency. On the other hand, negative relationships are found between technical efficiency and entrepreneur dummy variable, continuous relationship with the suppliers in the same district, and with the private sector and trader as customers. These results imply that the adoption of new technology, accumulation of skill and knowledge as well as stable input sourcing contribute to improve the technical efficiency of olive oil manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | olive oil manufacturing, stochastic frontier production function, technical efficiency, modernization programme, Tunisia, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae10:96195&r=ara |
| By: | Chebil, Ali; Frija, Aymen; Abdelkafi, Belhassen |
| Abstract: | This study aims first to measure the farm specific irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE), through non parametric DEA model; and second to evaluate the potential irrigation cost reductions and identify the main factors causing variations in IWUE among the sample farms. Cross sectional data collected from a sample of 75 farms participating in the WaDImena project in Nadhour region (northern Tunisia) was used for this aim. The results showed that the average level of IWUE across the farm sample was around 61.2% under variable returns to scale (VRS) assumption. However, the estimated mean irrigation water technical cost efficiency (ITCE) is much higher than IWUE. Farmers would be able to reduce their actual cost by 5% under VRS by adjusting irrigation water to its efficient level. This low level of cost reductions is consistent with the existing literature about IWUE in Tunisia. Moreover, education level of farmers, access to credit and agricultural extension service showed a positive relationship with the IWUE in our case study. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae10:96158&r=ara |
| By: | Dhehibi, Boubaker |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to measure productive efficiency of irrigation water efficiency based on the concept of technical efficiency and compared among different sizes farms. The proposed methodology is applied to a randomly selected sample of 144 citrus growing farms located in Nabeul (Tunisia) and differentiated by size (small, medium and large farms). A stochastic production frontier approach, based on Battese and Coelliâs (1995) inefficiency effect model, is used to obtain farm-specific estimates of technical and irrigation water efficiency. The last step of the analysis consists on the identification of the factors influencing irrigation water efficiency differentials across citrus growing farms on the basis on a second-stage regression approach. Empirical results show that estimated mean technical efficiency ranges from a minimum of 12.82% to a maximum of 90.69% with an average estimate of 67.73%. This result means that 32.3% increase in production is possible with the present state of technology and unchanged input uses, if technical inefficiency is completely removed. Thus, improving technical efficiency will result to significant increases in framerâs revenue and profit. On the other hand, mean irrigation water efficiency is found to be 53%, which is much lower than technical efficiency and also exhibits greater variability ranging from 1.6% to 98.87%. The estimated mean irrigation water efficiency implies that the observed quantity of marketable citrus could have been maintained by using the observed values of other inputs while using 47.0% less of irrigation water. This means that farmerâs can achieve significant savings in water use by improving the utilisation of irrigation system and by utilizing more advanced irrigation technologies. |
| Keywords: | Water Efficiency, stochastic frontier production function, small, medium and large citrus farms, Tunisia, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae10:97328&r=ara |
| By: | Speelman, Stijn; Frija, Aymen; Buysse, J.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido |
| Abstract: | With increasing water scarcity, research on policy options for improved water allocation and governance becomes an urgent priority for many developing and developed countries. Evaluating institutional alternatives is however a challenging task. This article takes a comparative approach and compares case study data from Tunisia and South Africa highlighting the importance of the water rights system for irrigators. Using contingent valuation methods the benefits for water users of changes in water rights systems are quantified. In both countries WTP estimates reveal that from the farmersâ perspective significant improvements can be made to the current water rights systems. This is valuable information for policy makers to guide institutional reforms. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae10:95954&r=ara |
| By: | Feizabadi, Yaser |
| Abstract: | Rice comes second after wheat in Iran`s food consumption economy. Rising population and recent growth in GDP has made Iran one of the greatest rice importer countries all over the world. That is why rice marketing has always been a controversial issue in Iran`s agricultural economics. To study rice marketing system in Iran, this paper aims to calculate rice marketing margin, market efficiency and marketing cost coefficient in seaside Mazandaran province( where 70 percent of domestic rice production is obtained )Over the period 2000-2010. Results show that firstly HYV`s wholesale marketing margin is less than local varieties in 2000 while this trend is reversed in 2010. Secondly, retail marketing margin, total marketing margin, market efficiency and cost marketing coefficient for local varieties are all greater than HYV. Consequently, agricultural cooperative`s encouragement would lead to decrease in rice marketing margin and role of traders and raises rice farmers earnings |
| Keywords: | Mazandaran Province, Marketing Margin, Rice, Marketing, Q13, |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc11:108944&r=ara |