nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2011‒07‒13
ten papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Turkey: Change from an emigration to an immigration and now to a transit migration country By Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
  2. Turkey's globalizing economy By Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
  3. Is Turkey still an emigration country? By Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
  4. The Turkish economy: A winner of the Euro crisis? By Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
  5. Tourism in the MED 11 Countries By Robert Lanquar
  6. Estimating the potential migration from Turkey to the European Union: A literature survey By Elitok, Secil Pacaci
  7. مقترح لتعزيز الأداء التصديرى للمشروعات الصغيرة والمتوسطة في مصر By Alasrag, Hussien
  8. Financial liberalization, financial development and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Turkey By ince, meltem
  9. An economic analysis of tobacco control policies in Turkey By Asena Caner; Selin Arslanhan; Kerem Helvacioglu; Ismail Saglam; Tuncay Teksoz
  10. The Turkish economy in a regional perspective By Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas

  1. By: Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
    Abstract: In the post Second World War period Turkey was an emigration country for a long time. But things have changed since. After the end of the Cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union, immigration from the neighborhood to Turkey increased substantially. A lively cross-border movement with the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also with the Middle East countries (i.e. especially Iran), has occurred. On the other hand, Western European countries have become extremely reluctant to open up their borders to Turkish migrants. As a consequence, Turkey is a country of emigration, immigration and transit, nowadays. In this paper, we concentrate on immigration and transit migration. --
    Date: 2010
  2. By: Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
    Abstract: The end of the Cold War has been a catalyst for Turkish economic relations with its neighbors. Turkey moved from the periphery to the center of a region that is transforming politically, socially and economically very fast. It is now surrounded by 13 sovereign nation states, which are more or less open to international trade and factor movements. All these new nation states have become potential partners for all kinds of economic activities. Due to their proximity, they are easily accessible markets for Turkish exports of goods or for imports of energy. Furthermore, they could provide the Turkish economy with cheap labor force - either as migrants to Turkey or as workers for Turkish plants to be established in the neighborhood. --
    Date: 2010
  3. By: Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
    Abstract: Located at the geographical intersection between East and West, with both Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, Turkey was always a country with large movements of people. There were several waves of forced (ethnic) movement of people as a consequence of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the following nation-building process in the Turkish neighborhood. In the post-Second world war period, Turkey became a country of emigration. In 1961 a bilateral agreement on labor recruitment between Turkey and Germany had been signed. In the following years, similar bilateral agreements were reached with a couple of other European countries (Austria, Belgium, France, the Netherland and Sweden). Nowadays, things have changed. Turkey is still a country of emigration. But it has also become a country of immigration and transit. And therefore, it faces similar challenges of migration and integration that are characteristic for areas with strong cross-cultural movements of people. In this paper, we concentrate on the emigration flows. --
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
    Abstract: While Turkey has opened up for trade, and export orientation has been seen as an important tool for development, foreign direct investments (FDI) have lagged behind. Turkey has not attracted a lot of FDI. Less than one billion US-$ FDI came to Turkey per year before 2000. In the last decade, FDI to Turkey has risen sharply to a peak of about 22 billion US-$ in 2007 but with a significant decrease since (as a consequence of the worldwide international financial crisis). --
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Robert Lanquar
    Abstract: For the last two decades, MED11 countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Autonomy, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) have recorded the highest growth rate in inbound world tourism. In the same time, domestic tourism in these countries was growing very fast. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing in light of the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties of the region. The last financial crisis had no severe consequences on this development, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the MED 11 countries in this sector. This trend was abruptly halted in early 2011 during the Arab Spring, but could resume when the situation stabilizes. This paper questions whether this trend will continue in the period up to 2030 and, for that, provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in MED11 for 2030: (i) reference scenario, (ii) common sustainable development scenario,(iii) polarized (regional) development scenario and (iv) failed development - decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourism arrivals will grow. However, security and adjustment to climate change remain the main factors that will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in MED11 countries.
    Keywords: Mediterranean, domestic tourism, international tourism, security, climate change, tourism indicators, tourism's economic contribution, tourism competitiveness, tourism prospective, tourism scenarios
    JEL: D12 D60 E27 F47 H54 O53 O55
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Elitok, Secil Pacaci
    Abstract: The likelihood of a potential migration flow from Turkey into the European Union (EU) has increasingly been the focus of debates among academics and policy makers. As having one of the fastest growing populations of Europe, Turkey and its migration potential are the nexus of fears and concerns. Against this background, this paper is a survey of the growing literature on the estimations of the volume of potential migration from Turkey to the EU within the context of possible Turkish membership. Taking into account the methodological problems, drawbacks of the data and definitional issues, this article aims at critically evaluating the existing literature. In the light of potential migration discussions, this paper emphasizes the necessity of a shift in the focus of debate from quantitative aspects, that are overemphasizing the economic aspects, to qualitative dimensions of migration potential from Turkey to the EU. --
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Alasrag, Hussien
    Abstract: Micro, small and medium sized enterprises (M/SMEs) are a dynamic force for sustained economic growth and job creation. They are a valid, crucial component of a vibrant industrial society.M/SMEs stimulate private ownership and entrepreneurial skills; they are flexible and can adapt quickly to changing market demand and supply conditions; they generate employment, help diversify economic activities and make significant contribution to export and trade.This paper aims to present a proposal to enhance the exports of small and medium enterprises in Egypt.
    Keywords: small and medium sized enterprises (M/SMEs); export performance of SMEs; Egypt
    JEL: E0 E2 L26 E6 F1 L53
    Date: 2011–07
  8. By: ince, meltem
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to seek how financial growth affects economic growth in Turkey in the flourishing world. The financial market is changed and developed very rapidly in the last decade. Moreover the change of financial market has also been brought some innovations and new policies. So this study examines whether financial development leads to economic growth in Turkey. The main elements of financial liberalization that have been used commonly in the literature are considered for analysis. This is because financial liberalization is the first step to achieve financial development and can contribute to development. In the light of financial development between the period of 1980 and 2010, cointegration and Granger casuality tests are applied to assess the finance-growth linkages. There is a strong relation between finance and growth in the short-run, but it is failed in the long-run casuality. Contrary to the conventional findings in the literature, the results of the analysis support that there is one way link from financial development to economic growth for Turkey and it is necessary to take different policies to improve growth and maintain the steady economic growth.
    Keywords: Financial growth; financial liberalization; economic growth; Casuality; Cointegration
    JEL: D53 E44 C22 F43
    Date: 2011–04–30
  9. By: Asena Caner (TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics); Selin Arslanhan (Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV)); Kerem Helvacioglu (Ankara University, Department of Economics); Ismail Saglam (TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics); Tuncay Teksoz (Pfizer Ýlaçlarý Ltd. Þti.)
    Abstract: To evaluate the costs and benefits of various anti-smoking policy alternatives including taxation and four cessation programs, accounting for the demographic projections in 2011-2050 in Turkey. Demographic projections are combined with incidence and mortality rates of four major cigarette related diseases, price elasticity of cigarette demand and unit costs of nonprice measures to reduce demand in order to estimate the net present discounted values of policy alternatives. Among policy alternatives that yield the same amount of cigarette consumption, cessation programs yield lower costs to households and the society at large than taxation, while taxation is preferred by the public sector. Net benefit to the public sector as a function of the tax rate is a single-peaked Laffer curve. The public sector can obtain the highest net benefit if it raises the special consumption tax rate from its current level by nearly 9 percentage points. Although intervention programs emerge as the preferred anti-smoking alternatives, more research is needed on estimating the cost-effectiveness and social desirability of taxation and intervention programs in Turkey.
    Date: 2011–06
  10. By: Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas
    Abstract: The end of the Cold War changed the political landscape of the Black Sea area and the Middle East completely: In the North-East, the collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by the nascence of new sovereign nation states - with all the problems of nation building and all the costs of going through a fundamental economic and social transformation from communist systems to market oriented economies. In the West, the European Union (EU) widened geographically and deepened structurally, increasing the number of full members from 12 to 15 (1995) to 25 (2004) and finally to 27 (2007). Furthermore a European Monetary Union with a common currency for 16 members was established. Finally, the South-East - disturbed by political crisis and wars - has become more important as a supplier of energy (i.e. gas and oil) not only for the area itself but even more for Europe and other world regions. --
    Date: 2010

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