nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2011‒06‒11
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020 By Zafer Dilaver; Lester C Hunt
  2. Analyzing Energy Consumption and GDP Nexus Using Maximum Entropy Bootstrap: The Case of Turkey By A. Talha Yalta
  3. Shallow versus Deep Integration between Mediterranean Countries and the EU and within the Mediterranean Region By Ahmed Farouk Ghoneim; Javier Lopez Gonzalez; Maximiliano Mendez Parra; Nicolas Peridy

  1. By: Zafer Dilaver (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey); Lester C Hunt (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and an underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.
    Keywords: Turkish Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Energy Demand Modelling and Future Scenarios.
    JEL: C22 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2011–05
  2. By: A. Talha Yalta
    Date: 2011–06
  3. By: Ahmed Farouk Ghoneim; Javier Lopez Gonzalez; Maximiliano Mendez Parra; Nicolas Peridy
    Abstract: The paper aims at assessing the specific impact of shallow versus deep integration between Mediterranean (MED) countries1 and their partners in the European Union (EU) as well as between the MED countries themselves. It relies on dataset developed for this project concerning tariffs (as a proxy for shallow integration) and Non Tariff Measures (NTMs)2 (as a proxy for deep integration). Additional data are also included in order to take into account other trade costs, especially transport costs and logistics costs. In this regard, an original dataset of maritime freight cost (Maersk, 2007) is introduced as well as the trade logistics performance (TLP) index produced by the World Bank. Such datasets are useful for providing additional insight into deep integration. The paper starts by calculating the magnitude of NTMs in terms of ad valorem tariff equivalent (AVEs). The estimation of NTMs through ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) shows that Algeria and Jordan have the highest value of AVEs, whereas Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt have the lowest value. A gravity model is then estimated with special emphasis on trade costs which are the crucial point in our research study. Given the limitation of data on NTMs, the gravity model is estimated for only one year (2001), and for each MED country. Trade costs are represented by tariffs, AVEs of NTMs, and transport and logistics costs. The idea is to test which of the three elements of trade costs are the most impeding to bilateral trade between MED countries and EU countries as well as amongst MED countries. The model shows that tariffs, NTMs, and trade and logistics costs have a significant impact on trade, but is highly vivid in countries suffering from high tariff rates, prevalence of NTMs, and trade costs. A number of simulations are carried out trying to differentiate between the impact of partial liberalization and full liberalization on trade creation. The results obtained show that full liberalization has a significant effect whether it is only related to shallow integration (tariff removal) or deep integration (NTMs and trade and logistics). The effect is higher if trade costs and logistics are improved. The results are far less if only partial liberalization takes place and in several countries is insignificant implying that marginal reductions in NTMs or tariffs cannot always help to create trade. Finally the study shows that there is a huge potential for enhancing trade amongst MED countries if trade costs are lowered, logistics is improved, and NTMs are abolished.
    Keywords: Regional Trade Agreements, Regional Integration, Non-Tariff-Measures, Deep versus shallow integration, South Mediterranean countries, European Union Trade Agreements
    JEL: F15 F17
    Date: 2011

This nep-ara issue is ©2011 by Quentin Wodon. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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