nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2011‒05‒07
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes and Price Stability: Evidence from MENA Countries By Darine Ghanem
  2. A Vector Auto-Regressıve (VAR) Model for the Turkish Financial Markets By Bayraci, Selcuk; ARI, YAKUP; YILDIRIM, YAVUZ
  3. Economic integration in the EuroMed: current status and review of studies By Joachim Jarreau

  1. By: Darine Ghanem
    Abstract: In this study, we empirically test whether pegged regime was successful in achieving and maintaining consistently low inflation rates in 17 MENA countries over the period of 1980-2007. Taking into account unobserved country heterogeneity, as well as, the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes we estimate a dynamic panel data model of the effects of exchange rate regimes on inflation using officially announced exchange rate regimes in addition to de facto regimes in place. Our findings suggest a strong link between the choice of the exchange rate regime and inflation performance.[...]
    Date: 2010–11
  2. By: Bayraci, Selcuk; ARI, YAKUP; YILDIRIM, YAVUZ
    Abstract: In this paper, we develop a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of the Turkish financial markets for the period of June 15 2006 – June 15 2010 and forecasts ISE100 index, TRY/USD exchange rate, and short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the VAR model is compared with the results from the univariate models. Moreover, the dynamics of the financial markets are analyzed through Granger causality and impulse response analysis.
    Keywords: multivariate financial time series; vector auto-regressive (VAR) model; impulse response analysis; Granger causality
    JEL: C51 C01
    Date: 2011–04–24
  3. By: Joachim Jarreau
    Abstract: This article draws a picture of the current status of the liberalization process in the Euro-Mediterranean region, and reviews existing studies of this process. Economic integration among the South-Med countries (SMCs) has started in the middle 1990s through intra-regional agreements (GAFTA, Agadir Agreement) and bilateral agreements with the EU. Econometric studies using gravity models generally found important trade creation effects for intra-regional trade, but smaller and asymmetric effects from EU-Med agreements, with an increase of export flows from the EU but no increase of flows in the other direction. Simulations with CGE models shows the main sources of gains (trade creation) and of losses (trade diversion, terms of trade) for SMCs. Studies also suggest that a dismantling of non-tariff barriers and of barriers in services trade could yield substantial gains for SMCs. A table with existing agreements and a picture of economic flows in the region can be found in the annex.
    Keywords: Economic integration; EuroMed; Gravity models; Computable general equilibrium
    JEL: F15 F17 O24 O53 O55
    Date: 2011–03

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