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on Arab World |
| By: | Kangni Kpodar; Patrick A. Imam |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of the pattern of Islamic bank diffusion around the world using country-level data for 1992 - 2006. The analysis illustrates that income per capita, share of Muslims in the population and status as an oil producer are linked to the development of Islamic banking, as are economic integration with Middle Eastern countries and proximity to Islamic financial centers. Interest rates have a negative impact on Islamic banking, reflecting the implicit benchmark for Islamic banks. The quality of institutions does not matter, probably because the often higher hurdle set by Shariah law trumps the quality of local institutions in most countries. The 9/11 attacks were not important to the diffusion of Islamic banking; but they coincided with rising oil prices, which are a significant factor in the diffusion of Islamic banking. Islamic banks also appear to be complements to, rather than substitutes for, conventional banks. |
| Keywords: | Banking systems , Cross country analysis , Economic models , Financial systems , Interest rates , International banking , Islamic banking , Middle East , North Africa , South Asia , Sub-Saharan Africa , Time series , |
| Date: | 2010–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/195&r=ara |
| By: | Zafer Dilaver (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey); Lester C Hunt (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and -0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020. |
| Keywords: | Turkish Industrial Electricity Demand; Energy Demand Modelling and Forecasting; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Future Scenarios. |
| JEL: | C22 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:129&r=ara |
| By: | Angel-Urdinola, Diego F.; Semlali, Amina; Brodmann, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | This note presents and analyzes the main design features of an inventory of non-publicly provided Active Labor Market Programs (ALMPs) in Arab-Mediterranean Countries (AMCs), with a specific focus on programs targeted at youth. Despite considerable international evidence, there is little systematic analysis on the effectiveness of ALMPs in AMCs as most programs and investments remain largely un-assessed. Since most AMCs lack unemployment insurance systems or other safety nets for the unemployed, ALMPs constitute a relevant instrument to address the consequences of labor market frictions, such as high unemployment and slow school-to-work transition. Programs from nine countries are included in the inventory: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen. Benchmarked against international best practices, assessment of the programs covered in the inventory reveals that the majority lack the necessary mix of design features that make programs effective. These findings call for urgent reforms in program design and delivery, especially given the sizeable financial investments in programs and the urgency to improve labor market outcomes among youth. This policy note constitutes a first step towards understanding and assessing provision of ALMPs in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and intends to provide policy makers and financiers with options for reform to enhance efficiency of existing programs and improve the design of future interventions. In addition to specific aspects of program design and implementation, stakeholder coordination needs to be strengthened and put at the forefront of ALMP reform. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Primary Education,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Education For All |
| Date: | 2010–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:55673&r=ara |
| By: | Maher Hasan; Jemma Dridi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the performance of Islamic banks (IBs) and conventional banks (CBs) during the recent global crisis by looking at the impact of the crisis on profitability, credit and asset growth, and external ratings in a group of countries where the two types of banks have significant market share. Our analysis suggests that IBs have been affected differently than CBs. Factors related to IBs‘ business model helped limit the adverse impact on profitability in 2008, while weaknesses in risk management practices in some IBs led to a larger decline in profitability in 2009 compared to CBs. IBs‘ credit and asset growth performed better than did that of CBs in 2008-09, contributing to financial and economic stability. External rating agencies‘ re-assessment of IBs‘ risk was generally more favorable. |
| Keywords: | Banking systems , Banks , Competition , Credit expansion , Financial assets , Financial crisis , Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 , Islamic banking , Markets , Profit margins , Risk management , |
| Date: | 2010–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/201&r=ara |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Temple University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a unique monthly data set that covers overall credit card usage in a small-open economy, Turkey, to investigate a possible credit channel of monetary policy transmission through credit cards. A reduced-form vector autoregression analysis is employed where the forecast error variance decompositions are calculated for three-year windows over the period 2002-2009. It is shown that, during the recent financial crisis that has started in 2007, the monetary policy of Turkey has shifted toward focusing on output volatility and interest-rate smoothing through setting short-term interest rates, while the inflation rate has been mostly affected by exchange rate movements and inflation inertia. Credit cards usage has an increasing effect on inflation rates through time, requiring more policy emphasis on the credit channel through credit cards. When the effects of the credit view and the money view are compared, the former seems to be more effective on the real side of the economy independent of the level of inflation. |
| Keywords: | Credit Cards, Monetary Policy, Credit Channel, Vector Autoregression, Turkey |
| JEL: | E44 E50 E60 C32 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tem:wpaper:1010&r=ara |
| By: | Heiko Hesse; Raphael A. Espinoza; Adolfo Barajas; Ralph Chami |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the recent credit slowdown among Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from three analytical angles. First, it finds that, similar to other regions and to its past history, a credit boom preceded the current slowdown, and that a protracted period of sluggish growth is likely going forward. Second, it uncovers a key role played by bank funding (deposit growth and external borrowing slowed considerably) but whose effect was frequently dampened by expansionary monetary policy. Third, bank-level fundamentals - capitalization and loan quality - helped to explain differences in credit growth across banks and countries. |
| Keywords: | Bank credit , Banking sector , Credit expansion , Cross country analysis , Economic growth , Middle East , Monetary policy , North Africa , |
| Date: | 2010–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/219&r=ara |
| By: | Wajih Khallouli (Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - Université de Tunis); René Sandretto (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate whether the recent financial turmoil which arose in the United States has contaminated the Middle East and North African countries (MENA). In contrast to Lagoard-Segot and Lucey (2009), we try to identify the existence of pure contagion (Masson, 1999) rather than shift-contagion (Rigobon, 2003). Then, we explicitly define financial “contagion” in accordance with Eichengreen et al. (1996) and we extend the Cerra and Saxena (2002) methodology by using a Markov-Switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry (2009) in order to identify contaminated MENA stock markets. Our results provide evidence of a persistence of recession characterised by low mean/high variance regimes which coincides with the third phases of the subprime crisis. In addition, there is evidence of mean and volatility contagion in MENA stock markets caused by the US stock market. |
| Keywords: | subprime crisis; Contagion; MENA stock markets; Markov switching EGARCH model |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00522683_v1&r=ara |
| By: | Angel-Urdinola, Diego F.; Kuddo, Arvo |
| Abstract: | This note provides a general background of the main features of labor regulation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and benchmarks them against international best practices. The note compiles information on available labor laws and other legal acts concerning employment protection regulation. Within the broader scope of labor regulation, and in order to assure regional comparability, information collected focuses on key issues in the labor law associated with commencing or terminating employment and during the period of employment (including maternity benefits). The main sources the data are the World Bank doing business 2010 and International Labour Organisation (ILO) databank. This note is a tool to provide policymakers and international organizations with a regional diagnose of how labor regulation affects labor market outcomes in MENA and inform client governments about strategic approaches to employment creation through labor policy and reform. This activity comes as a response to regional priorities in the context of the Arab World Initiative (AWI). One of the six strategic themes of the AWI focuses explicitly on employment creation as a top priority. Part of the World Bank's mandate under the AWI is to inform client governments about strategic approaches to employment creation through labor policy and reform. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Labor Standards,Work&Working Conditions,Labor Management and Relations |
| Date: | 2010–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:55674&r=ara |
| By: | Avato, Johanna |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to better understand emigration pressures in migrant sending countries by looking at the determinants of the propensity to migrate at the individual level. The analysis is based on survey data from Albania, Moldova, Egypt and Tunisia collected by the European Training Foundation (ETF) in 2006. Within this context the study focuses on: (i) the self-selection of migrants in terms of skills; and (ii) the impact of selective immigration policies on the migration process. The paper finds that migration pressures, or the intent to migrate, are not subject to any self-selection. However, immigration policies exert a strong out-selection that is likely part of the reasons why positive selection is found in many studies. Further, the study confirms that the European Union (EU) attracts comparatively lower skilled migrants than other destinations. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Human Migrations&Resettlements,International Migration,Gender and Development |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:52449&r=ara |
| By: | Raphael A. Espinoza; Ananthakrishnan Prasad |
| Abstract: | According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4. |
| Date: | 2010–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/224&r=ara |