nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2010‒07‒10
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Türkiye’de Piyasa Göstergelerinden Para Politikasý Beklentilerinin Olculmesi (Measuring Market Based Monetary Policy Expectations in Turkey) By Harun Alp; Hakan Kara; Gursu Keles; Refet Gurkaynak; Musa Orak
  2. The changing pattern in international trade and capital flows of the Gulf cooperation council countries in comparison with other oil-exporting countries By Peeters, Marga
  3. Determinants of Time-Varying Sensitivity of MENA Countries to Global Shocks: A State Space Approach By Bedri Kamil Onur Tas

  1. By: Harun Alp; Hakan Kara; Gursu Keles; Refet Gurkaynak; Musa Orak
    Date: 2010
  2. By: Peeters, Marga
    Abstract: During the past decade the Gulf cooperation council countries have achieved a remarkably high degree of trade and financial integration in the world economy. Before the global crisis began, they invested their abundant oil income which resulted from high energy prices and high world demand, in return abundantly abroad. Thanks to policies that are geared towards opening up borders, the Gulf cooperation council countries have imparted a significant stimulus to the world economy, to a much greater extent than other oil exporting countries in similar conditions. The development of the gross capital flows in view of the recent global crisis and their composition are the main focus of this study. It aims at providing a comprehensive overview of the pattern of the current and capital account of the balance of payments of the group of six Gulf cooperation council countries, and benchmarks this group with the other OPEC countries that have a comparable size of natural resources. Aspects of globalization, trade and financial integration, such as the dependence on oil, “Dutch disease”, regional integration, foreign direct investment and cross-border assets and loans are addressed. The impact of the crisis is found to have reverted international capital flows of the GCC, in particular cross-border bank loans and deposits.
    Keywords: Gulf countries; trade; capital flows; balance of payments; oil-exports;
    JEL: F4 P33
    Date: 2010
  3. By: Bedri Kamil Onur Tas (TOBB ETU Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether the mechanism by which global shocks are transmitted into MENA countries changes over time. Three main questions are investigated by implementing TVC-VAR methodology. 1) Do MENA countries respond differently to global economic shocks? 2) Do the reactions of countries to global economic shocks vary over time? 3) What are the structural factors that determine the sensitivity of a country to global shocks? The responses of countries to shocks, to global GDP and oil price are investigated. The empirical results indicate that the reaction of countries to global shocks differs significantly among MENA countries. Also, the response of an individual country varies over time. Finally, economic factors like the exchange rate regime, monetary policy, transparency of the central bank and institutional quality play significant roles in the reaction of domestic GDP to shocks, to global GDP and oil price. The results of this paper have significant policy implications especially for AGCC countries.
    Date: 2010–06

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