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on Arab World |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); H. Mehmet Tasci |
| Abstract: | There is little evidence on unemployment duration and its determinants in developing countries. This study is on the duration aspect of unemployment in a developing country, Turkey. We analyze the determinants of the probability of leaving unemployment for employment or the hazard rate. The effects of the personal and household characteristics and the local labor market conditions are examined. The analyses are carried out for men and women separately. The results indicate that the nature of unemployment in Turkey exhibits similarities to the unemployment in both the developed and the developing countries. |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:521&r=ara |
| By: | Hasan Ersel (Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | For many observers, Turkey’s performance during the “2007+ global financial crisis”1 was puzzling. In the first half of the 2009, Turkey was one of the worst affected countries in the world. In addition, the Turkish government was too slow to react, and the measures taken seemed inadequate. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: First, why was Turkey affected so much by the crisis? And second, why was the government’s reaction late and “less than adequate”? The paper is organized as follows: In the following section the concept of vulnerability is briefly discussed. The second section is devoted to another methodological issue. Here a simple framework is introduced to analyze the channels and the manner in which a shock such as the 2007+ crisis affects an economy. In the third section, Turkey’s experience with the 2001 crisis is discussed. The purpose of this section is to give some historical insight to explain why the government was confident (even overconfident) of Turkey’s resiliency. The fourth section briefly surveys the developments in the Turkish economy after it was hit by the global crisis in the last quarter of 2008. In the fifth section, in the light of these discussions, the government’s reaction is analyzed. In this section the emphasis is on the uncertainty that the 2007+ crisis had created. Therefore it is assumed that the government was taking decisions under complete uncertainty. A simple framework is introduced to show that a rationale can be attributed to the government’s behavior. The paper concludes with the evaluation of the government’s decisions. |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:520&r=ara |
| By: | Djavad Salehi-Isfahani (Department of Economics, Virginia Tech University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comparative study of private returns to schooling in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey using similar survey data and a uniform methodology. We employ three surveys for each country that span nearly two decades, ranging from 1987 to 2006. Our aim is to learn from survey data about the signals of rewards that individuals use in their decisions to invest in education. So we pay special attention to differences across countries and over time in the institutions of education and labor markets, and how these differences might be related to the observed patterns of rewards to education. We find a fair amount of consistency in the patterns of returns between the countries, as well as important differences that suggest the influence of institutions. We find that returns to education increase in years of schooling in all three countries, as one would expect in countries with relatively rigid labor markets, where heavy emphasis on higher terminal degrees reduce the value of basic education. Private returns to tertiary relative to upper secondary and vocational education are high, confirming that university education is highly attractive in these countries. Low returns to vocational training relative to general upper secondary, which have been observed in many developing countries, are true in Egypt and Iran, but not Turkey. We attempt to reconcile these facts with the institutional features of the countries and changes over time. |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:504&r=ara |
| By: | Canan Yildirim (Kadir Has University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the role of moral hazard and corporate governance structures in bank failures within the context of the 2000-2001 currency and financial crises experienced in Turkey. The findings suggest that poor performers with lower earnings potential and managerial quality, and hence lower franchise value, were more likely to respond to moral hazard incentives provided by the regulatory failures and full coverage deposit insurance system. The findings also suggest that ownership and control variables are significantly related to the probability of failure. Privately owned Turkish commercial banks were more likely to fail. Moreover, among the privately owned Turkish commercial banks, the existence of family involvement on the board increased the probability of failure. |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:486&r=ara |
| By: | Ozan Bakis (Department of Economics, Galatasaray University); Nurhan Davutyan; Haluk Levent; Sezgin Polat |
| Abstract: | This paper studies local human capital externalities and returns to education in Turkey. Data comes from 2006 Household Labor Survey. Instrumental Variables-OLS estimation indicates internal (external) returns amounting to 4.9% (2.4%), while IV estimates using quantile regression range from 3% to 6.9% (1.3% to 3.5%). We discuss further characteristics of the Turkish labor market segmented by gender and show that external returns are uniformly higher for women. Our results also indicate both internal and external returns increase or equivalently the wage distribution spreads out as education increases. |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:517&r=ara |
| By: | Onour, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates common cyclical features between crude oil market and stock markets in major oil exporting countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait. The results of the paper indicate, at low oil prices (below $40 per oil barrel) Saudi and Abu-Dhabi markets share common cyclical feature with oil market, but they digress from the oil market as oil prices rose above $40 per barrel. The decoupling feature indicate the capital markets and oil market respond in different pattern to cycle generating shocks, suggesting as higher oil prices may raise global investment risk, stock markets in these countries deflect from their key fundamental driver. |
| Keywords: | Common trends; Shared cycles; nonlinear cointegration |
| JEL: | C10 C50 F30 |
| Date: | 2010–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23334&r=ara |
| By: | Ebru Voyvoda (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the patterns of structural and technological movements in the post-1980 Turkish economy. This period is known to span the overall transformation of the Turkish economy from domestic demand-oriented import substitutionist industrialization to one with export-orientation and integration with the global commodity and financial markets. What was theoretically expected from the process of outward orientation, was that as the economy would be exposed to more competition and technological know-how in the global markets and rapid gains in productivity would be converted into an engine of growth through technological improvements. It is the purpose of this paper to analytically depict and decompose the output movements in Turkey from 1980 onwards. By doing so, it becomes possible to observe whether trade orientation has been (one of) the major stimulating factors of output growth. To this end, this study uses input-output tables and employs Structural Decomposition Analysis to decompose the output change in the economy into the fraction attributable to changes in technology, the fraction attributable to import penetration in intermediate demand and the fractions attributable to level and composition of final demand, both in terms of its domestic and foreign components. |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:507&r=ara |
| By: | M. Hakan Berument (Department of Economics, Bilkent University); N. Nergiz Dincer; Zafer Mustafaoglu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between growth and growth volatility for a small open economy with high growth volatility: Turkey. Quarterly data for the period from 1987Q1 to 2007Q3 suggests that growth volatility reduces growth and that this result is robust under different specifications. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on how growth volatility affects a set of variables that are crucial for growth. Empirical evidence from Turkey suggests that higher growth volatility reduces total factor productivity, investment, and the foreign currency value of local currency (depreciation). Moreover, employment increases, however the evidence for this is not statistically significant. |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:528&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Ali Marouani (Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne); Laura Munro |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess barriers to service provision in the financial, telecom, and transport sectors of selected MENA countries, including both trade and domestic restrictions. The analysis is focused on computation of aggregate and modal trade restrictiveness indexes (TRIs) by sector, drawing on information gathered from detailed questionnaires and country reports prepared by local consultants. The conclusions highlight that significant regulatory reforms have taken place in the service sectors of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco over the last decade, but that a broad range of restrictions still remain. The most significant change in these service sectors has been the lifting or softening of the constraints imposed on foreign equity participation. Reforms, however, have had varying degrees of impact on market structure depending on the country and the sector. |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:496&r=ara |
| By: | Ridha Nouira; Patrick Plane; Khalid Sekkat (Université Libre de Bruxelles (U.L.B), Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Recent literature suggests that a proactive strategy consisting of deliberate real exchange rate depreciation can promote exports diversification and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates whether four developing countries have adopted such a strategy. Data from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are used to construct and compare the macroeconomic real effective exchange rate (REER), similar exchange rates at the sector level (SREER) and the macroeconomic Equilibrium Real Effective exchange rate (EREER). It shows that there are instances where the objective of diversifying exports through depreciation of exchange rate comes at the expense of further misalignment (REER departs from the EREER) and, then, monetary authorities are doomed to choose. The results show that Morocco and Tunisia are choosing the proactive exchange rate strategy while Egypt and Jordan are not. This fits with the observation that the former are doing much better than the latter in terms of exports diversification. |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:510&r=ara |
| By: | Onour, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | This paper employs extreme downside risk measures to estimate the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008/2009 on equity markets in major oil producing Middle East countries. The results in the paper indicate the spillover effect of the global crisis varied from a country to another, but most hardly affected market among the group of six markets was Dubai financial market in which portfolio loss reached about 42 per cent. This indicates that Dubai debt crisis, which emerged on surface in 2009, exacerbated the impact of the global financial crisis and prolonged the recovery process in these markets. |
| Keywords: | Value at risk; Fat-tails distribution; Expected Shortfall; Extreme losses. |
| JEL: | G12 F30 C01 |
| Date: | 2010–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23332&r=ara |
| By: | Ali T. Akarca (Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Chicago); Cem Baslevent (Department of Economics, Bilgi University) |
| Abstract: | Using data drawn from a nationwide voter-tendencies survey conducted shortly before the July 2007 parliamentary election in Turkey, inter-party vote movements during the 2002-2007 period are investigated with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as the focal point. A descriptive analysis relying on two and four-way partitions of the dataset reveals that, in comparison to the relatively small group of ‘deserters’ from the party, the ‘newcomers’ to the AKP are younger, mostly female, more satisfied with the performance of the economy, and more likely to be pro-EU membership. The data also shows that AKP supporters are less educated and less concerned with the threats to secularism than the rest of the voters. The key finding of the econometric work is that economic evaluations—especially retrospective ones— have a strong association with the party choice in the 2007 elections. |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:509&r=ara |
| By: | Jeffrey B. Nugent (University of Southern California); Abla M. Abdel-Latif (Economics Department, The American University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | The main objectives of this study are: (1) to quantify the amounts of both trade creation and trade diversion in each of the countries involved, (2) to explain why the effects especially in Jordan have been much larger than one might have expected and seemingly larger than those in Egypt even though Egypt may have had a stronger comparative advantage in such exports than Jordan, and (3) to identify and explain those effects other than on trade, such as in attracting FDI, developing local entrepreneurship, encouraging female labor force participation, developing linkages to firms outside the QIZ and on broader trade and industrial policies. We shall also try to identify policy and other changes that might have allowed these effects to be more positive and stronger than they actually were. Because of the longer experience with the Jordanian QIZs, somewhat more emphasis is placed on the Jordanian data and more detailed statistical analysis were possible. But the Egyptian case is also illustrative, especially for looking at the differential benefits on firms of different size, diversity and sophistication of product lines and benefits accruing to Egypt from attracting Turkish investments. |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:514&r=ara |
| By: | Samy Ben Naceur (Laboratoire d’Economie et Finance Appliquées (LEFA) and Institut des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (IHEC)); Hichem Ben-Khedhiri; Barbara Casu |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, both developed and developing countries have deregulated their banking and financial systems with the aim of improving the efficiency, productivity and profitability of the sectors and increasing international competitiveness. This study attempts to examine the effect of institutional and financial variables on the banking industry performance of selected Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. Evaluating bank efficiency in a non-parametric setting (Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA), we then employ a second-stage Tobit regression to investigate the impact of regulatory variables on banks’ efficiency. The first stage indicates that Morocco and Tunisia have more efficient banking systems compared to the other selected MENA countries, although banks in Jordan seem to catch up with best practice from 2003 onwards. The Tobit regressions show a robust association of some environmental measures with cost efficiency. In this context, our results reveal that higher bank efficiency in our sample is influenced by the quality of the legal system, well capitalized and liquid banks. We also find that banking sector development measured by credit to private sector by banks in low regulated environments—like the one in our sample countries—tends to reduce bank efficiency. However, the impact of stock market development is positive and significant in all specification confirming the complementary role of bank and capital market. Besides, a highly concentrated banking sector in our sample reduces significantly the efficiency of banks. Finally, efficiency is improving in our sample thanks to the financial reforms variables not accounted for in our control variables and Egyptian banks display the lowest efficiency in the region for the entire sample period. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:499&r=ara |
| By: | Imed Medhioub (High Trade School, UREP Laboratory, Sfax, Tunisia) |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, due to the world economic regionalization, business cycle synchronization is of great importance. It is in this context that this study is defined. Indeed, following the political debates carried out especially by France in order to create a Mediterranean Union, we propose a synchronism estimation between the Tunisian, French, Italian, Spanish, Greek and Turkish industrial cycles. Several methods were used to measure the business cycles synchronization among these countries. In fact, concordance index indicates a weaker convergence between the two Mediterranean sides. Consequently, the cycles are, in general, asynchronous and the creation of a Mediterranean Union is not encouraged. |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:527&r=ara |
| By: | Magda Kandil (International Monetary Fund); Mohamed Trabelsi |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the desirability and feasibility of establishing a monetary union in GCC countries using a multivariate structural Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) for the period 1980-2006. The paper builds on the earlier work, capitalizing on a methodology that captures supply and demand disturbances impinging on individual economies. Co-movement of shocks across countries is considered a crucial condition towards integration in a common currency area. Shocks are based on the estimation of a structural VAR model that comprises world real output, domestic output, real exchange rates and the price level. Based on correlations using demand and monetary shocks, the paper establishes the following results: (i) countries of the region are still far from the necessary conditions to ensure the success of joining a currency union. Nevertheless, for a subset of countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar), conditions suggest higher potential to take the lead in endorsing and fostering a common currency zone, (ii) a higher degree of labor mobility, openness, and intra-regional mobility are still desired to accelerate regional integration and ensure a steady path towards the establishment of a currency union. |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:522&r=ara |
| By: | Hanan Morsy (International Monetary Fund (IMF)) |
| Abstract: | The paper aims at characterizing the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Previous studies included a very limited number of oil-exporting countries in their samples, raising concerns about the applicability of the estimated coefficients for oil countries. Furthermore, current approaches are not specifically tailored to oil-producing countries because they fail to capture the effects of oil wealth and the degree of maturity in oil production. This paper explores the underlying determinants of the current account balance for a large sample of oil exporting countries, and extends the specifications commonly used in the literature to include an oil wealth variable, as well as a proxy for the degree of maturity in oil production. The paper therefore contributes to the existing literature both in terms of the sample studied as well as the variables considered. The results reveal that factors that matter in determining the equilibrium current account balance of oil-exporting counties are the fiscal balance, the oil balance, oil wealth, age dependency, and the degree of maturity in oil production. |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:511&r=ara |
| By: | Zaki, Chahir; Hendy, Rana |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at evaluating the liberalization policies effects on inequality in Egypt with respect to gender, region and qualification level. No previous studies in Egypt, to our best knowledge, have used the Microsimulation analysis which is a good tool that allows such an evaluation and determines the redistribution aspects of macro policies. The latter consists of linking macroeconomic changes to the micro level of the economy i.e. the individual level. A Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) is first estimated for a maximum tariff rate of 10%. And, wages and employment changes resulted from the CGE are replicated, in a second stage, into our micro data. Results show that liberalization policies have important impacts on inequalities among the Egyptian population in general. Inequality has decreased among males and females as well as among different regions of the Egyptian society but has increased among high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Results of the present research have important policy implications that have to be considered. |
| Keywords: | Trade liberalization; Egypt; CGE |
| JEL: | F16 J01 D58 J16 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23354&r=ara |
| By: | Srijit Mishra |
| Abstract: | Using Bayesian updating to deterministic priors persistence of fundamentalist belief like those in the mind of a terrorist is explained. Under such belief system if conditional evidence is diametrically opposite and also deterministic then a process of change will set in and in the present war against terrorism this can be effectively done through Islamic religious authorities. In situations where interaction is the basis, self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others’. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative about the concerns of Middle East, this will also make things easier for intervention through Islam.[Working Paper No. 2003-002] |
| Keywords: | Bayesian updating, fundamentalist belief, interaction, variation. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2563&r=ara |
| By: | Galal Amin (The American University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | Although income distribution is one of the oldest parts of economic theory, we are still far from having any satisfactory theory explaining why income distribution in one country is more or less equal than in another, or what makes distribution move towards or away from equality over time. Behind the development of equality and inequality lie a variety of forces that do not guarantee that this development necessarily continues in the same direction, towards either a greater or smaller degree of equality. At the heart of this combination of forces that shape income distribution lies the key factor of the nature and rate of technological progress. But technology is not the only factor. There is also the nature of power structure, the rate of population growth and the degree of integration with the outside world. This paper attempts to show the likely impact of each of these factors on the trend and changes in the degree of equality and inequality. A final section applies this analysis to the development of the pattern of income distribution in Egypt over the last 200 years, followed by a few observations comparing Egypt in this respect with other Arab countries. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:500&r=ara |
| By: | Olivier Parent (Olivier Parent: University of Cincinnati); Abdallah Zouache |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Africa’s and Middle East’s growth performance for the period 1990- 2005. It employs a Bayesian Model Averaging method that constructs estimates as a weighted average of Spatial Autoregressive estimates for every possible combination of included variables. One of the results of the paper is that the inclusion of spatial dependencies has a direct impact on the determinants of growth in Africa and Middle-East. Indeed, the methodology used in the paper offers an interesting response to the institution/geography debate on the explanation of growth and development. In particular, our methodology allows a selection of the institutional variables that count to explain low development since the geographical variables are partially integrated in the spatial dependence effect. |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:490&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Abdel Gadir Ali (Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the political economy of inequality in the distribution of consumption expenditure in the Arab region, using consumption expenditure as the best available proxy for the standard of living in developing countries (in contrast to income being the relevant proxy in the advanced countries). Following a brief discussion of the relevant concept of development to be adopted, we discuss the nature of the Arab social contracts that have prevailed in the region since independence and up to the mid-1980s. We show that, compared to the world, the Arab region enjoys a medium degree of inequality. This, we suggest, should be understood as the cumulative achievement of the redistributive social contracts. We also show that the recent trend, however, is one of increased inequality and discuss these recent trends in the context of tolerance towards inequality during the early stages of development. Societies that tolerate increasing inequality are said to be endowed with a deep "tunnel effect" ala Hirschman (1973). In the absence of the "tunnel effect" developing countries could fall into "development disasters" such as civil wars. We show that a relatively large number of Arab countries experienced "development disasters" over the period since independence. Finally, we address "inequality traps", the interplay of socio-political and economic inequalities. Inequality traps are essentially based on the concept of equality of opportunity. Policies required for dealing with such traps during the process of development are reviewed and are found to be equivalent to the type of policies that were pursued by the Arab countries prior to their succumbing to neo-liberal policy packages of the 1980s and 1990s. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:502&r=ara |
| By: | James A. Robinson (Harvard University, Department of Government and IQSS) |
| Abstract: | The extent of inequality in society is determined by the distribution of assets, the rates of returns on different assets, and government policy. All of these things are deeply political and reflect the balance of political power in society and the institutions to which this balance gives rise. I illustrate this perspective on the determination of inequality by a case study of the Sudan and argue that in the Middle East and North African countries it suggests a paradox - inequality is much lower than one might anticipate. I make some conjectures about why this might be based on a comparison with the historical development of inequality in Latin America. |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:493&r=ara |
| By: | Marwan Khawaja (Center for Research on Population and Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon); Rozzet Jurdi; Shireen Assaf; Joumana Yeretzian |
| Abstract: | This paper examines cause-specific labor force non-participation among women living in three impoverished communities on the outskirts of Beirut, Lebanon. It uses an expanded labor force utilization framework, separating the socially discouraged from other labor nonparticipants. This study is based on data from a sample survey of some 2699 households, carried out in 2002. The analysis is limited to women between the ages of 15-59 which yields a total of 3813 women, 9% of whom reported to be socially discouraged from seeking employment. Descriptive and bivariate analysis of the affect of the independent variables chosen is first investigated. A multinomial logit model is then fitted to the data in order to uncover the impact of individual and household characteristics on the socially discouraged group as well as women labor force participation. The focus is on covariates pertaining to both women respondents and their spouses (heads of household in other household domains), but several other human-capital, demographic and socio-economic factors are also included. Our findings overall indicate a strong influence of social and demographic factors on discouragement. These include residence, marital status, households with children and experience. Surprisingly, education of the household head and women, presence of children and income have no noticeable influence on social discouragement. |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:494&r=ara |
| By: | Zaki, Chahir |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model incorporating trade facilitation aspects. This paper’s contributions are twofold: theoretical and empirical. First, this paper attempts to model trade facilitation explicitly in a dynamic CGE model applied. On the empirical side, I estimate, not assume, the tariff equivalent of red tape and related procedures at sectoral level. I use the ad valorem tariff equivalents of time to import and to export that have been estimated in a companion paper and I take into account the cost of such a process. To do so, I modify the Exter model that is calibrated on the Egyptian social accounting matrix of 2000/2001. My main findings show that, when trade facilitation is modeled precisely, i.e. by taking into account its cost as well as the tariff equivalents of its aspects, the impact of such a process is reduced. Meanwhile, its impact remains higher than trade liberalization. Moreover, some sectors witness a significant expansion more than others, especially processed food, garments and high value added products. |
| Keywords: | CGE; Trade facilitation; Egypt |
| JEL: | F11 F14 D58 |
| Date: | 2010–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23353&r=ara |
| By: | Alasrag, Hussien |
| Abstract: | The informal sector is economic activity that is neither taxed nor monitored by a government, and is not included in that government's Gross National Product (GNP), as opposed to a formal economy.Although the informal economy is often associated with developing countries, where up to 60% of the labor force (with as much 40% of GDP) works, all economic systems contain an informal economy in some proportion. The term informal sector was used in many earlier studies, and has been mostly replaced in more recent studies which use the newer term. This research aims to study The impacts of the informal sector On the Egyptian economy. |
| Keywords: | The informal sector ; Egyptian economy |
| JEL: | O1 O17 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23344&r=ara |
| By: | Sami Bibi (Department of Economics, University of Laval, Quebec, Canada.); Rim Chatti (Ministère des Finances du Québec) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the association between gender and poverty in Tunisia based upon an empirical analysis of 1990 and 2000 household surveys. It also tests whether there is a widespread feminization of poverty. To achieve these goals, the paper suggests a theoretically sound method to compute expenditure-based incidence of poverty and tests for differences in headcount ratio between female- and male-headed households for a given period and whether this difference is increasing over time. Stochastic dominance tests are also performed to avoid arbitrary choices of poverty lines and indices. The results suggest that although the female headed households would be subjected unequal treatment in the labor market, they are not poorer than their male counterpart as they live with more active persons. However, as we increase the poverty line, the poverty difference between female and male headed households rises to the detriment of female-headed households and becomes statistically significant. But what is more disquieting is that this difference will increase over time due to the fall in both the level and the returns of the female assets. |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:512&r=ara |
| By: | Houssem Eddine Chebbi (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Nabeul (FSEGN), Tunisia); Marcelo Olarreaga; Habib Zitouna |
| Abstract: | The literature on trade often focuses on its impact on economic growth. However, more recently attention has been paid to the impact of openness on other important aspects of individual welfare, such as the environment. Because openness affects economic activity it will also affect pollution levels. But changes in economic activity also imply changes in the levels of income per capita which may lead to changes in the demand for environmental standards. Moreover, trade will affect pollution levels directly through its impact on the composition of the production bundle, as resources get reallocated across more, or less polluting sectors. All this suggests that the impact of trade openness on pollution is likely to depend on initial conditions and therefore cross-country results are likely to hide significant heterogeneity which may lead to the wrong policy conclusions. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of Tunisia’s trade reforms over the last four decades on its CO2 emissions by taking into account not only the direct effect of trade on emissions, but also its indirect effect through growth. Using cointegration techniques we disentangle the long and short-run relationship between trade openness, income per capita and CO2 emissions in Tunisia, and explore the extent of Granger causality among these variables. Results suggest that the direct effect of trade openness on CO2 emissions is positive both in the short and the long run, but the indirect effect is negative at least in the long run. |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:518&r=ara |
| By: | Nadia Belhaj Hassine (Economic Research Forum); Veronique Robichaud; Bernard Decaluwé |
| Abstract: | Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have gained popularity as an empirical tool for assessing the impact of trade liberalization on agricultural growth, poverty and income distribution. However, conventional models ignore the channels linking technical change in agriculture, trade openness and poverty. This study seeks to incorporate econometric evidence of these linkages into a CGE model to estimate the impact of alternative trade liberalization scenarios on welfare, poverty and equity. The analysis uses the Latent Class Stochastic Frontier Model (LCSFM) and the metafrontier function to investigate the influence of trade openness on agricultural technological change. The estimated productivity gains induced from higher levels of trade are combined with a general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalization to evaluate the direct welfare benefits of poor farmers and the indirect income and prices outcomes. These effects are then used to infer the impact on poverty using the traditional top-down approach. The model is applied to Tunisian data using the social accounting matrix of 2001 and the 2000 household expenditures surveys. |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:519&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Benbouziane (Faculty of economics and management, Tlemcen University); Abdelhak Benamar; Mustapha Djennas |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to test for the liquidity effect in Algeria and Morocco using multivariate threshold autoregressive model (MVTAR) as proposed by Tsay (1998). Our empirical results have several important implications. First, results do not support threshold behavior in the case of Algeria. Moreover, when using M1 as a proxy of monetary policy, the liquidity effect hypothesis is rejected in this country. When using bank deposit assets (BDA), results show that there is a negative relationship between monetary shocks and interest rate, and accordingly accepting the liquidity effect. Secondly, in the case of Morocco, however, results show an asymmetric response of interest rate to positive and negative shocks of monetary policy. Moreover, these results strongly support a threshold behavior when BDA is employed, while weakly supporting the same behavior using M1. Furthermore, and using the proxy of bank deposit assets, the liquidity effect are accepted in the low inflation regime, whereas it is rejected in the high inflation regime. Hence, the threshold behavior offers an interesting alternative for explaining the relationship between interest rates and monetary policy shocks. The results presented herein may give more insights on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in different inflationary environments. Accordingly, a good inflation targeting policy would yield better results in this context. Indeed, the liquidity effect breaks down for the high inflation regime, as inflationary expectations are immediately responsive to money growth. In a low-inflation regime, however, money is not considered to be neutral, as it could affect output through the liquidity effect. |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:525&r=ara |
| By: | Chahir Zaki (Universit´e Paris I Panth´eon Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model incorporating trade facilitation aspects. This paper’s contributions are twofold: theoretical and empirical. First, this paper attempts to model trade facilitation explicitly in a dynamic CGE model applied. On the empirical side, I estimate, not assume, the tariff equivalent of red tape and related procedures at sectoral level. I use the ad valorem tariff equivalents of time to import and to export that have been estimated in a companion paper and I take into account the cost of such a process. To do so, I modify the Exter model that is calibrated on the Egyptian social accounting matrix of 2000/2001. My main findings show that, when trade facilitation is modeled precisely, i.e. by taking into account its cost as well as the tariff equivalents of its aspects, the impact of such a process is reduced. Meanwhile, its impact remains higher than trade liberalization. Moreover, some sectors witness a significant expansion more than others, especially processed food, garments and high value added products. |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:515&r=ara |
| By: | Rim Ben Ayed Mouelhi (Department of Economics, ISCAE, University of La Manouba, Tunisia) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at measuring the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) use on the efficiency of the Tunisian manufacturing sector, at the firm level within a simple theoretical framework. We use a firm-level panel data for the manufacturing sector in Tunisia to investigate whether adoption of ICT influences efficiency in factors use. The analysis is conducted through the use of a parametric method to measure technical efficiency. We estimate a stochastic production frontier and the relationship aimed to explain technical efficiency differentials in a single stage as suggested by Battese and Coelli (1995). The results confirm the presence of positive returns to ICT capital. We find that the impact of ICT on efficiency is strong. Our results also suggest that it is important to carefully control for human capital related characteristics of employment when studying the effect of ICT. The evidence shows that achieving benefits from investment in ICT requires complementary investments and changes in human capital. This means that the combined use of ICT and human capital in a firm would enhance its efficiency beyond the direct effects of these factors taken alone. |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:506&r=ara |
| By: | G. R. Soltani (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University); M. Bakhshoodeh (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Shiraz); M. Zibaei |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the problem of agricultural water use efficiency via optimization of cropping patterns, irrigation strategies and external trade of agricultural products in Iran. Towards this end, comparative advantages of some principal crops are first determined using Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) at three levels: farm, plain and basin. Due to importance of irrigation water, a new approach is developed for estimating scarcity price or the social price of irrigation water in the selected regions. Then, optimal cropping patterns at basin and farm levels are determined using mathematical programming techniques and considering water supply risk. According to the findings of this study, optimal allocation of water at the farm level is achieved when marginal return to irrigation water is the same not only in all growing stages of a crop but also at different growing stages of competing crops grown in the farm. Finally, the findings indicated that it is possible to direct optimal cropping patterns at basin level to maximize social profits, water-use efficiency and net virtual water import simultaneously. However, in order to draw a definite conclusion with respect to virtual water trade, more data is needed on the quantity of water embedded in each crop imported from and exported to each country. Moreover, it is necessary to design a suitable agricultural external trade plan to be used as a target for directing cropping patterns. The approach used in this study can be considered a first step in this direction. |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:508&r=ara |
| By: | Yacine Belarbi; Abdallah Zouache (CREUSET-CNRS, University of Lyon, Saint-Etienne, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic forces that explain regional growth in Algeria in the period 1998-2005. Since the beginning of structural reforms in the early 1980s, the Algerian economy has experienced a transition from a soviet-kind planned economy to a market economy. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2000, Algeria experienced many political and economic troubles and was even forced by the IMF to follow a structural adjustment program between 1994 and 1998. This paper studies the relation between industrial employment growth per capita in 48 Algerian regions and the geographical location of those regions in terms of immediate neighborhood. Our results demonstrate that there is no convergence process between the Algerian regions. In other words, “rich” Algerian regions stay rich whereas relatively poor regions stay poor. In that vein, the significance of the spatial dependence coefficient may reveal that there are convergence clubs in Algeria. Growth dynamics in Algeria are not equitably distributed. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:501&r=ara |
| By: | Touhami Abdelkhalek (Institut national de statistique et d’économie appliquée, Rabat, Maroc); Fouzia Ejjanoui |
| Abstract: | L’étude de la pauvreté au Maroc s’est toujours appuyée sur l’approche dite monétaire préconisée par la Banque mondiale. Pour approcher le phénomène de la pauvreté, la Direction de Statistique n’utilise que les dépenses de consommation. Cependant, cette approche a fait preuve de ses limites du fait de son caractère unidimensionnel. Ces dernières années, un consensus universel s’est constitué. Il consiste à traiter la pauvreté comme une privation multiple. Il stipule qu’il est important de tenir compte de dimensions monétaires et non monétaires dans l’analyse et la mesure de la pauvreté. Dans ce sens, la présente recherche se base sur les données brutes du Recensement général de la population et de l’habitat (RGPH) de 2004, pour approcher et mesurer la pauvreté multidimensionnelle en milieu urbain dans l’une des principales villes du Maroc (Marrakech). Il s’agit, plus précisément, de construire un indicateur composite de la pauvreté (ICP) pour chaque ménage concerné. Cet indicateur permet d’élaborer une carte de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle (non monétaire) au niveau des six communes urbaines de la ville de Marrakech. Sur le plan méthodologique, nous avons utilisé, de façon complémentaire, des méthodes statistiques avancées : l’analyse des correspondances multiples (ACM) et deux méthodes de classification (la classification ascendante hiérarchique (CAH) et une méthode de partition). Les résultats obtenus font ressortir une forte disparité, en termes de pauvreté non monétaire, entre les communes de la ville en 2004. Selon le cas étudié en détail, l’étendue entre la commune qui couvrirait le moins de pauvres (Gueliz) et celle qui abriterait le plus de plus de pauvres (Annakhil) est de 18,40 points de pourcentage. Ces résultats sont aussi largement différents en termes d’incidence de ceux obtenus par le Haut Commissariat au Plan (HCP) à travers la carte de pauvreté basée sur une approche monétaire pour la même année (2004). |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:513&r=ara |
| By: | Ghazi Boulila (Faculte des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Tunis, Universite de Tunis - El Manar); Chaker Gabsi; Mohamed Trabelsi (Institut des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Carthage (IHEC)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of total and regional poverty in Tunisia using the Growth Incidence Curve (GIC) approach based on individual consumption and education level from the household consumption surveys and other official publications during the period 1990-1995. Three main results are found, first, growth is pro-poor in Tunisia and poor households benefit from growth in the whole country as well as many different governorates. Second, the different social incidence curves (SGICs) using education as a social indicator confirms the fact that growth is generally pro-poor. This result means that education and human capital accumulation are important factors in decreasing poverty especially in rural areas. Third, the empirical analysis tends to confirm the existence of conditional and unconditional convergence in terms of poverty between regions, where poor governorates tend to grow more rapidly (with a high pro-poor growth) and to catch up with rich ones. |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:505&r=ara |