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on Arab World |
| By: | Francesco Grigoli; Dalia Hakura |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Economic models , Economic recession , Economic recovery , Fiscal policy , Hydrocarbons , Investment , Middle East , Monetary policy , North Africa , Oil exporting countries , Pakistan , Production growth , Trade liberalization , |
| Date: | 2010–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/122&r=ara |
| By: | Kareem Ismail |
| Abstract: | This study derives structural implications of the Dutch disease in oil-exporting countries due to permanent oil price shocks from a typical model. We then test these implications in manufacturing sector data across a wide group of countries including oil-exporters covering 1977 to 2004. The results on oil-exporting countries are four folds. First, we find that permanent increases in oil price negatively impact output in manufacturing as consistent with the Dutch disease. Second, Evidence in the data shows that oil windfall shocks have a stronger impact on manufacturing sectors in countries with more open capital markets to foreign investment. Third, we find that the relative factor price of labor to capital, and capital intensity in manufacturing sectors appreciate as windfall increases. Fourth, we find that manufacturing sectors with higher capital intensity are less affected by windfall shocks than their peers, possibly due to a larger share of the effect being absorbed by more laborintensive tradable sectors. An implication of the fourth result is that having diverse manufacturing sectors in capital intensity helps cushion the volatility of oil shocks. |
| Keywords: | Capital , Cross country analysis , Economic models , External shocks , Industrial sector , International trade , Labor costs , Manufacturing sector , Oil exporting countries , Oil prices , Price increases , Production , Resource allocation , |
| Date: | 2010–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/103&r=ara |
| By: | Nir Klein |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical studies have shown an inverse relation between natural resource intensity and long-term growth, implying that the natural resources generally impede economic growth through various channels (the “natural resource curseâ€). This paper departs from these studies by exploring the intersectoral linkages between oil and non-oil sectors in a cross-country perspective. The paper shows that the applicability of “natural resource curse†across oilbased economies should be treated with caution as the externalities of the oil sector highly depend on the countries’ degree of oil-intensity. In particular, the results show that, in low oil-intensity economies, the incentives to strengthen both fiscal and private sector institutions lead to positive inter-sectoral externalities. In contrast, weaker incentives in high oil-intensity economies adversely affect fiscal and private sector institutions and consequently lead to negative inter-sectoral externalities. |
| Keywords: | Angola , Cross country analysis , Economic growth , Economic models , Exchange rate appreciation , Natural resources , Nonoil sector , Oil exporting countries , Oil sector , Political economy , Real effective exchange rates , |
| Date: | 2010–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/118&r=ara |
| By: | CASE |
| Abstract: | Based on the conceptual framework developed by the European Commission for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth, this study examines empirically the key channels through which fiscal policy impacts economic growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the EU. The results confirm that the function of specific disaggregated fiscal parameters like debt financing, governance, efficiency of spending, mixture of taxes can have a significant impact on growth. |
| Keywords: | Quality of public finances,fiscal policy,growth,public sector governance,Mediterranean partner countries. Study on Qualit |
| JEL: | H1 H2 H3 H5 H6 H7 E6 O1 O2 O4 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecopap:0394&r=ara |
| By: | Driouchi, Ahmed; Kadiri, Molk |
| Abstract: | Abstract This is a contribution to the new economics of skilled labor emigration that focuses on the mobility of medical doctors from sending Middle East and North African countries. Economic models under risk neutrality and aversion are used. The findings show that the relative expected benefits and the emigration rate have major effects on the net relative human medical capital that remains in the source country. The effects of relative wages in the destination and sending countries besides the yield of education are likely to change the emigration patterns. Comparisons of theoretical and observed relative human capital per country averages are conducted and ensured the statistical validity of the model. The empirical results based on the available data by Docquier and Marfouk (2006 and 2008) and Bhargava, Docquier and Moullan (2010) allowed further use of the model to understand the current trends in the emigration of medical doctors. These trends confirm the magnitude of relative wages besides the level of education and the attitude toward risk as determinants of the emigration of skilled labor. The countries included in the study are all exhibiting brain gain under 1991-2004 emigration data but two distinct groups of countries are identified. Each country is encouraged to anticipate the likely effects of this emigration on the economy with the increase of health demand, the domestic wages and the increase in education capacity for medical doctors. |
| Keywords: | Medical skilled emigration; wages; human capital; risks. |
| JEL: | F22 A20 J24 I1 |
| Date: | 2010–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22810&r=ara |