nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2010‒05‒15
six papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Growth and economic crises in Turkey: leaving behind a turbulent past? By Mihai Macovei
  2. Parliamentary Election Cycles and the Turkish Banking Sector By Christopher F. Baum; Mustafa Caglayan; Oleksandr Talavera
  4. A direct test of the endogeneity of money: implications for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries By Bedri Kamil Onur Tas; Selahattin Togay
  5. Rethinking time allocation of Egyptian females. By Rana Hendy
  6. A collective model of female labor supply : do distribution factors matter in the Egyptian case ?. By Rana Hendy; Catherine Sofer

  1. By: Mihai Macovei
    Abstract: Turkey's performance in the current crisis shows that it has managed to weather the global stormy conditions relatively well and avoid collapsing into a full-fledged currency and financial crisis. On the face of it, one could conclude economic reforms introduced since 2001 have paid off and today's performance marks a clean break with the past. But there are also indications that the Turkish economy still retains some of its old vulnerabilities. By determining how resilient Turkey's economy has become to domestic and international economic volatility, one can better assess the sustainability of the accelerated economic convergence process on which Turkey embarked after the 2001 crisis.
    Keywords: Economic crisis, external vulnerabilities, growth, economic convergence, fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, enlargement, boom-bust growth pattern, Macovei
    JEL: E32 E63 F33 P17
    Date: 2009–10
  2. By: Christopher F. Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin); Mustafa Caglayan (University of Sheffield); Oleksandr Talavera (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of parliamentary election cycles on the Turkish banking system. Using annual bank-level data representing all banks in Turkey during 1963-2005, we find that there are meaningful differences in the structure of assets, liabilities and financial performance across different stages of the parliamentary election cycle. However, we find that government-owned banks operate similarly to both domestic and foreign-owned private sector banks before, during and after elections. Our estimates also show that government-owned banks underperform their domestic and foreign-owned private sector counterparts.
    Keywords: elections, state banks, domestic banks, foreign-owned banks, loans, interest rate margin
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2010–04–21
  3. By: AYSIT TANSEL (Middle East Technical University & Institute for Study of Labor); H.MEHMET TASÇI (Balikesir University)
    Abstract: There is little evidence on unemployment duration and its determinants in developing countries. This study is on the duration aspect of unemployment in a developing country, Turkey. We analyze the determinants of the probability of leaving unemployment for employment or the hazard rate. The effects of the personal and household characteristics and the local labor market conditions are examined. The analyses are carried out for men and women separately. The results indicate that the nature of unemployment in Turkey exhibits similarities to the unemployment in both the developed and the developing countries.
    Keywords: Unemployment Duration, Hazard Analysis, Gender, Turkey
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Bedri Kamil Onur Tas (TOBB ETU); Selahattin Togay (Gazi University)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the endogeneity of money supply by empirically investigating the GCC countries. We propose and implement a direct test of money supply endogeneity that depends on econometric specification of exogeneity. To be able to make comparisons with previous studies in the literature, we also conducted Granger Causality tests to analyze the causality relationship between bank credit and money supply. Both of the empirical studies provide empirical evidence for the endogeneity of money supply in GCC countries. The results of the paper have many significant monetary policy implications for the upcoming monetary unification of the GCC countries.
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Rana Hendy (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics et CREST-INSEE)
    Abstract: The present research explores for the first time to our best knowledge the extremely biased division of labor within Egyptian households. Time activities in respect of paid and unpaid work are an important aspect of this study. The classical dichotomy of "work in the market" versus "leisure" may serve as a good approximation of the role the male plays in the production activity of the household but does gross injustice to the female since it overlooks the whole time she spends, outside the market, on domestic activities. And, studying the females' invisible unpaid work is crucial since it remains the female's main occupation. Time use profiles are constructed using the Egyptian time use data available, only for females, in the Egyptian Labor Market and Panel Surveys of 1998 and 2006. The empirical exercise consists in, on the one hand-analyzing the main features of Egyptian females' time allocation relying on both cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis. On the other hand, we estimate a Propensity Score Matching model in order to evaluate the effect of marriage on females market and domestic labor supplies.
    Keywords: Time allocation, domestic production, descriptive analysis, propensity score matching, Egypt.
    JEL: D13 J16 J22
    Date: 2010–04
  6. By: Rana Hendy (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne et CREST-INSEE); Catherine Sofer (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the intrahousehold ressource allocation in Egyptian married couples and its impact on females labor supply. Using data from the Egyptian Labor market and Panel Survey of 2006, we estimate a discrete-choice model for female labor supply within a collective framework. The economic model incorporates the possibility of non-participation for females which represents the working situation of more than 70 percent of Egyptian married women. The originality of this paper consists on testing new distribution factors, i.e., a set of exogenous variables which influence the intrahousehold allocation of resources without affecting preferences or the budget constraint. The latter are variables related to the marriage market, gender attitudes, domestic violence, direct access to the household income and participation in household decision making. Indentification of the model relies on the assumption that only some parameters of the utility function are identical for single and married females. We find significant relations between females bargaining power and labor supply decisions. This study's results has important policy implications.
    Keywords: Collective model, labor supply, distribution factors, maximum simulated likelihood, Egypt.
    JEL: D11 D12 J22
    Date: 2010–05

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