nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2009‒12‒19
nine papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey By C. Emre Alper; Orhan Torul
  2. Real Interest Rates, Bubbles and Monetary Policy in the GCC countries By Razzak, Weshah; Bentour, E M
  3. The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence By Alper, Emre; Hatipoglu, Ozan
  4. International Migration and Human Development in Turkey By Içduygu, Ahmet
  5. Foreign ownership, sales to multinationals, and firm efficiency: The Case of Brazil, Morocco, Pakistan, South Africa, and Vietnam By Kinda, Tidiane
  6. On the links between inflation, output growth and uncertainty: system-GARCH evidence from the Turkish economy By Korap, Levent
  7. Ottoman State Finances in Comparative European Perspective, 1500-1914 By K. Kývanç Karaman; Þevket Pamuk
  8. New time series evidence for the causality relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy By Korap, Levent; Saatçioğlu, Cem
  9. Immigration and Human Development: Evidence from Lebanon By Tabar, Paul

  1. By: C. Emre Alper; Orhan Torul
    Date: 2009–06
  2. By: Razzak, Weshah; Bentour, E M
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Their monetary policy objective is to stabilize the foreign price, i.e., exchange rate instead of the domestic price level, where the nominal interest rate is equalized with the US federal fund rate, but the inflation rates are independent. High oil prices and the depreciating US dollar caused inflation to rise and real interest rates to be persistently negative in the UAE and Qatar. Asset prices bubbles formed then burst creating large loses. They could have moderated the effect of, or avoided, the bubble had they floated the currency and stabilized domestic prices.
    Keywords: inflation; real interest rate; bubbles
    JEL: E31 E58 E37
    Date: 2009–12–01
  3. By: Alper, Emre; Hatipoglu, Ozan
    Abstract: We document the role of independence for Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) as it matters to successful implementation of monetary policy. We compare the implementation of monetary policy pre- and post-crisis periods within an empirical framework which allows us to measure the role of independence quantitatively. We estimate a Taylor rule with time varying coefficients by employing a dual extended Kalman filter. We find that the coefficient of inflation gap has increased substantially since CBRT gained de-juro independence.
    Keywords: Taylor Rule; Kalman Filter; Monetary Policy
    JEL: E58 E52 E00 C11
    Date: 2009–01
  4. By: Içduygu, Ahmet
    Abstract: As often argued, a negative perception of immigration, or even emigration, prevails public opinions and governments in most countries. It is argued that caused by economic hardship or political hardship or political unrest in countries of origin, it would threaten well-being and identity in countries of destination, and sometimes endanger political security. However, on the other hand, social scientists recognize that, being a part of the global circulation and global integration, human mobility bears a tremendous potential for human progress. This view is increasingly shared by several actors for which adequate policies could make migration a genuine instrument for economic and social development. Therefore, the conditions under which, and the mechanisms through which, migration can transform individual benefits into an aggregated one, for the greater society, are to be studied. From this perspective, Turkey provides us with an interesting case study; firstly because of its multiple migration roles as a country of emigration, immigration and transit, over time; secondly because, this ongoing flows of emigration and immigration involve various stages of a migration cycle; thirdly because, this migration cycle reflects, both explicitly and implicitly, some gains, and occasionally loses, both for the country and its people, migrants and non-migrants; and finally because of Turkey’s longestablished EU-membership process which highlights various types of migration issues. This report provides us with an overview of some aspects of migration-development nexus in the case of Turkey.
    Keywords: Development; emigration; immigration; remittances; migration cycle; Turkey; European Union.
    JEL: F22 O15 F24
    Date: 2009–10–01
  5. By: Kinda, Tidiane
    Abstract: Using a one-step stochastic frontier model for five developing countries (Brazil, Morocco, Pakistan, South Africa, and Vietnam), we show that foreign firms benefit from a better investment climate, which significantly explains why they are more efficient than local firms. Unlike former studies, this paper uses the share of each firm’s sales to multinationals located in the country to assess the importance of vertical spillovers, and it controls for the direct impact of the investment climate on efficiency. The results show that firms (particularly small local firms) that sell more of their production to multinationals are more efficient.
    Keywords: Foreign ownership; firm-level efficiency; vertical spillovers; investment climate; developing countries
    JEL: F23 F21 D24 O14
    Date: 2009
  6. By: Korap, Levent
    Abstract: In this study, the causal relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty have been re-examined for the Turkish economy. Based on the system-GARCH methodology, estimation results reveal that for the 1987M01 2008M09 investigation period with monthly data, the mutual Granger causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty cannot be rejected in a positive way. For the output growth and its uncertainty relationship, it is observed that the larger the output growth the lower the output growth uncertainty. Some evidence have also been obtained in favor of that an increase in inflation uncertainty lowers output growth and that an increase in the latter lowers the former. Furthermore, an increase in output growth uncertainty is likely to lead to more inflation. A sensitivity analysis implemented for the post-2001 period supports to a great extent these results. Consequently, it is inferred that policies aiming at reducing inflation would lead to a more efficient functioning of the price system, and this would contribute to the real output growth.
    Keywords: Inflation ; Output growth ; System-GARCH ; Turkish economy ;
    JEL: C51 C32 E31
    Date: 2009–12
  7. By: K. Kývanç Karaman; Þevket Pamuk
    Date: 2009–05
  8. By: Korap, Levent; Saatçioğlu, Cem
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy by using contemporaneous Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) estimation methodology. Our findings indicate that inflation leads to inflation uncertainty, and dealing with the information content of this relationship, the conditional variance of inflation reacts more to past positive shocks than to negative innovations of equal size. Causality analysis between inflation and inflation uncertainty reveals that inflation Granger- causes, or in other words, precedes inflation uncertainty, but no clear-cut and significant evidence in the opposite direction can be obtained. Furthermore, generalized impulse response analysis estimated in a vector autoregressive framework yields supportive results to these findings.
    Keywords: Inflation ; Inflation uncertainty; Granger causality analysis ; EGARCH modelling ; Impulse response analysis ;
    JEL: C51 C32 E31
    Date: 2009–07
  9. By: Tabar, Paul
    Abstract: This paper takes Lebanon as a case study to examine the relationship between human development and immigration. It examines this issue from both ends: the sending and the receiving countries. The author suggests that by developing the concept of a diasporic civil society and a diasporic public sphere, a significant aspect of the relationship between human development and immigration is illuminated especially at the level of political, social and cultural capitals. The paper also argues that the double impact of the home country and that of destination has a lot to say about the influence of immigration on human development in Lebanon. In examining Australia as a destination country, the paper shows the particular impact that globalisation and September 11 have lately had on the capacity of the Lebanese migrants for human development. Finally, the paper concludes by showing the extent to which the diasporic civil society compensates for the ‘negligent’ character of the Lebanese state in the context of human development.
    Keywords: Lebanese diaspora; human development; diasporic civil society; diasporic public sphere; economic and social capitals
    JEL: O15
    Date: 2009–08–01

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