nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2009‒08‒30
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Emergence of the Regulatory State: The Political Economy of Turkish Banking Reforms in the Age of Post-Washington Consensus By Caner Bakir; Ziya Onis
  2. Rohstoffbasierte Staatsfonds: Theorie und Empirie By Clemens, Marius; Fuhrmann, Wilfried
  3. Optimal Probabilistic Forecasts for Counts By Brendan P.M. McCabe; Gael M. Martin; David Harris

  1. By: Caner Bakir (Koc University); Ziya Onis
    Abstract: The new era of Post-Washington Consensus (PWC) promoted under the auspices of multilateral organizations such as IMF and the World Bank centres on the need to develop strong regulatory institutions, especially the realm of banking and finance in developing countries. By focusing on the Turkish experience in the aftermath of the 2001 crisis, the article identifies the positive features of the new era the PWC in terms of the banking sector which as a result has become much more robust in terms of its ability to withstand external shocks and to avert future financial crises. At the same time, however, the article highlights some of the limitations of the new era. Important limitations are identified in terms of the distributional impact of the regulatory reforms with the banking sector and notably the foreign banks emerging as the major beneficiaries of this process. Additional limitations are observed in the areas of consumer protection and competition regulation. These weaknesses, in turn, highlight the limits of the emerging regulatory state in the era of the PWC. Similarly, significant weaknesses are evident in terms of the ability of the banking system to finance the real economy, and notably the small and medium sized businesses.
    Keywords: Regulatory state; post-Washington consensus; banking; Turkey
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2009–08
  2. By: Clemens, Marius; Fuhrmann, Wilfried
    Abstract: Because of increasing resource prices and thus, higher export profits, resource abundant countries become more and more constrained in implementing a sustainable resource management which realizes two main objectives: The development of competitive non-oil industries and the reduction of resource caused volatility. This paper surveys rationales, structures and effects of resource-based Souvereign Wealth Funds as an instrument of optimal resource management. The main objective is to find out if resource funds have some significant impact on macroeconomic stability and development. Therefore, chapter 2 gives a review of different "resource curse" theories to identify macroeconomic core indicators that should be affected by introducing SWFs. The next chapter introduces the theory of resource-based SWF by simulating a general optimal resource management under different scenarios in an infinite horizon model. It shows that resource funds can be an effective instrument to obtain stabilization as well as sustainability objectives. After discussing specific practical topics as different types of funds, the linkage to government budget and the portfolio management, chapter 4 starts with a descriptive analysis about the implementation of resource funds in three different countries: Norway, Russia and Azerbaijan. Other nations and regions were considered by short subsections. In chapter 5 an unbalanced panel data model with 30 countries from 1970-2006 is build to estimate the effects of resource-based SWF´s on resource curse, stabilization and sustainability by means of fixed and random effects estimator. Finally, a short criticism and outlook gives motivation for further research tasks.
    Keywords: Sovereign Wealth Funds; Oil; Optimal Resource Management
    JEL: Q32 Q38 N5 E6 E61
    Date: 2008–06–31
  3. By: Brendan P.M. McCabe; Gael M. Martin; David Harris
    Abstract: Optimal probabilistic forecasts of integer-valued random variables are derived. The optimality is achieved by estimating the forecast distribution nonparametrically over a given broad model class and proving asymptotic efficiency in that setting. The ideas are demonstrated within the context of the integer autoregressive class of models, which is a suitable class for any count data that can be interpreted as a queue, stock, birth and death process or branching process. The theoretical proofs of asymptotic optimality are supplemented by simulation results which demonstrate the overall superiority of the nonparametric method relative to a misspecified parametric maximum likelihood estimator, in large but .nite samples. The method is applied to counts of wage claim benefits, stock market iceberg orders and civilian deaths in Iraq, with bootstrap methods used to quantify sampling variation in the estimated forecast distributions.
    Keywords: Nonparametric Inference; Asymptotic Efficiency; Count Time Series; INAR Model Class; Bootstrap Distributions; Iceberg Stock Market Orders.
    JEL: C14 C22 C53
    Date: 2009–08

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