nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2009‒08‒22
four papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Perceptions and Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants in Australia after 9/11 By Goel, Deepti
  2. Click to download data: an event study of Internet access to economic statistics By Tokel, O. Emre; Yucel, M. Eray
  3. Public Opinion behind the Deterrence: An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Study of the Israeli Policy towards Lebanon By Hamanaka, Shingo
  4. A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut – The “China Factor” and the OPEC Cartel By Ansgar Belke; Daniel Gros

  1. By: Goel, Deepti (Institute for Financial Management and Research (IFMR))
    Abstract: I examine whether after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 Muslim immigrants and immigrants who fit the Muslim Arab stereotype in Australia perceive a greater increase in religious and racial intolerance and discrimination compared to other immigrant groups. I also examine whether there is a differential change in their labor market outcomes. I find that after 9/11 there is a greater increase in the likelihood of Muslim men and of those who look like Muslims to report a lot of religious and racial intolerance and discrimination relative to other immigrants. Further, I do not find evidence that after 9/11 Muslims or their stereotypes show a differential change in the likelihood of looking for a new main job or of being employed. There is also no evidence of a differential change in hours worked or in wage incomes. This suggests that the Australian labor market did not react to attitudinal changes in society, at least in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.
    Keywords: discrimination, immigrants, September 2001, 9/11
    JEL: J61 J71
    Date: 2009–08
  2. By: Tokel, O. Emre; Yucel, M. Eray
    Abstract: This study examines the online access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey’s Electronic Data Delivery System within an event study framework. The comparisons of pre-event and post-event statistics suggest that announcements of both the policy interest rates and the consumer price data considerably affect society’s data access behavior. The timing and amplitude of these effects are further studied with respect to inflation expectations and surprise content of events; yet no solid pattern was revealed.
    Keywords: Data access; Macroeconomic data; Market efficiency; Event study
    JEL: G14 C50 G10
    Date: 2009–08–17
  3. By: Hamanaka, Shingo
    Abstract: Israel’s policies regarding Lebanon have been dependent on public opinion, which is very volatile. The citizens of Israel did not favor the occupation of the security zone in South Lebanon because of the Four Mothers movement, and it influenced the government to withdraw military forces unilaterally in May 2000. When Hizbollah attacked the Israel Defense Force (IDF) patrol and abducted two soldiers on the northern border, the Israeli citizens supported the government’s decision of waging a war in retaliation. This study aims to shed light on the causal mechanism of the influence of public opinion on the defense policy in the rational framework of deterrence strategy. I chose the evolutionary game theory approach as my research method. My study yielded the following result: the deterrence is not stable when the aggression level of the defenders is less than the level of the critical condition. The Israeli government made a decision to conduct unilateral withdrawal under the pressure of passive defenders among the people. However, the IDF could begin the operation in Lebanon because of a substantial number of supporters who hoped to restore the deterrence. This study concludes that the Israelis exhibited strong intension and an aggressive attitude toward the deterrence.
    Keywords: Deterrence; Evolutionary Game Theory; Second Lebanon War; Israel; Hizbollah
    JEL: N45 F5 F51 C7 N4 C72
    Date: 2009–08–13
  4. By: Ansgar Belke; Daniel Gros
    Abstract: The purpose of this contribution is to illustrate the mechanism by which higher oil prices might lead to lower interest rates in the context of a simple model that takes into account the global external savings equilibrium. The simple model has interesting implications for how one views the huge US current account deficit and how the emergence of China’s savings surplus and oil supply shocks impact the global economy.We show that the new equilibrium is located at a lower interest rate but also at a lower income level than without the China effect. Moreover, we argue that the lower real interest rates resulting from excess OPEC savings have facilitated the adjustment to the subprime crisis.
    Keywords: China factor, current account adjustment, interest rate, oil prices, saving glut
    JEL: E21 E43 F32 Q43
    Date: 2009–07

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