nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2009‒07‒28
five papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith? By Olivier Gervais; Ilan Kolet
  2. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey" By James Butkiewicz
  3. Analysis of Innovation and Energy Profiles in the Turkish Manufacturing Sector By Okay, Nesrin; Konukman, Alp Er S.; Akman, Ugur
  4. Evaluating the impact of Egyptian social fund for development programs By Abou-Ali, Hala; El-Azony, Hesham; El-Laithy, Heba; Haughton, Jonathan; Khandker, Shahidur R.
  5. Küreselleşme ve Enflasyon:Küresel Çıktı Açığı Hipotezi-Türkiye Örneği By Ercan Eren; Serkan Çiçek

  1. By: Olivier Gervais; Ilan Kolet
    Abstract: The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies. Moreover, nearly half of all global oil production, and roughly 75 per cent of proven reserves, are accounted for by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In this paper, the authors assess the implications of recent developments for the future supply of oil. They find that (i) the OPEC cuts announced in December 2008 could provide important support for prices in the coming year, and (ii) low prices have depressed, and may continue to depress, oil infrastructure investment, and thus could amplify existing supply constraints.
    Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Inflation and prices; International topics
    JEL: Q41 Q43
    Date: 2009
  2. By: James Butkiewicz (Department of Economics,University of Delaware)
    Abstract: Turkey experienced a financial crisis in 2000-2001 which led to significant financial reforms. The reforms resulted in a switch to a floating exchange rate, granted greater central bank independence and pursuit of a more credible monetary policy. Investigation of the channels of monetary policy in both periods finds that monetary policy’s output effects have been strengthened considerable by the reforms. In the pre-crisis period monetary policy was highly inflationary, while in the post-crisis period, monetary policy targets low inflation and has become a tool for output stabilization. These results support the importance of central bank independence and a credible policy.
    Keywords: monetary transmission mechanism, central bank independence, inflation targeting.
    JEL: E42
    Date: 2009
  3. By: Okay, Nesrin; Konukman, Alp Er S.; Akman, Ugur
    Abstract: We present Turkey’s manufacturing-sector innovation data and, for the first time, analyze likely relationships among GDP growth, sectoral innovation intensities, energy consumptions, and energy-saving potentials. We detect a power-law-like relationship between the projected energy-saving potentials and realized energy consumptions of the manufacturing-sector groups. We observe that the energy consumptions of the sectors do not change significantly despite varying innovation levels during transitions from economic crisis and recovery periods. We conclude that the Turkey’s manufacturing sectors’ energy consumptions are insensitive to their innovation levels, or their innovation activities are not energy-efficiency- and energy-saving-oriented, reflecting Turkey’s past supply-oriented energy policy. The leader innovating sectors are, nevertheless, expected to contribute more to Turkey’s energy-saving and energyefficiency policies if their innovation potentials can be directed to achieve higher energy savings and energy efficiencies via government incentives within the agenda of the recent energy-efficiency and R&D laws.
    Keywords: Manufacturing sector; Innovation; Energy consumption; Energy saving potential; Energy efficiency; R&D; GDP; Turkey
    JEL: Q48 Q55 L52 O3 Q43 L60 Q4
    Date: 2009–07–19
  4. By: Abou-Ali, Hala; El-Azony, Hesham; El-Laithy, Heba; Haughton, Jonathan; Khandker, Shahidur R.
    Abstract: The Egyptian Social Fund for Development was established in 1991 with a mandate to reduce poverty. Since its inception, it has disbursed about $2.5 billion, of which nearly two-fifths was devoted to supporting microcredit and financing community development and infrastructure. This paper investigates the size of the impact of the Fund’s interventions, whether the benefits have been commensurate with the costs, and whether the programs have been targeted successfully to the poor. The core of the impact evaluation applies propensity-score matching to data from the 2004/2005 national Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey. The authors find that Egypt’s Social Fund for Development programs have had clear and measurable effects, in the expected direction, for all of the programs considered: educational interventions have reduced illiteracy, health and potable water programs have lowered household spending on health, sanitation interventions have cut household spending on sanitation and lowered poverty, and road projects have reduced household transportation costs by 20 percent. Microcredit is associated with higher household expenditures in metropolitan areas and urban Upper Egypt, but not elsewhere. The Social Fund for Development’s road projects generate benefits that, by some estimates, exceed the costs, as do health and potable water interventions; this is less evident for interventions in education and sanitation. The Fund argues that its mission is primarily social, and so should not be judged using a cost-benefit analysis. The Fund support for microcredit is strongly pro-poor; the other programs analyzed have a more modest pro-poor orientation.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,,Rural Poverty Reduction,Housing&Human Habitats,Population Policies
    Date: 2009–07–01
  5. By: Ercan Eren (Department of Economics, Yildiz Technical University); Serkan Çiçek
    Abstract: The aim of paper to search whether there is a change in relationship between inflation rate and domestic economic activity in Turkey and to test whether an increase in the level of globalization has an impact on this changing. The findings point out that the slope of Phillips Curve has declined in Turkey. The effect of globalization that is foreseen the reason of flattening, is tested by global output gap hypothesis. The results show that globalization has an impact on domestic inflation rate -especially on traded goods inflation rate. özet Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de enflasyon oranı ile yurtiçi ekonomik aktivite arasındaki ilişkinin seyri noktasında bir değişimin olup olmadığını araştırmak ve küreselleşme düzeyinde yaşanan artışın bu değişim üzerinde etkili olup olmadığını sınamaktır. Elde edilen bulgular Türkiye’de Phillips eğrisinin eğiminin azaldığına işaret etmektedir. Azalışın nedeni olarak öngörülen küreselleşmenin etkisi, küresel çıktı açığı hipotezi çerçevesinde sınanmıştır. Tahmin sonuçları küreselleşmenin Türkiye’deki enflasyon oranı üzerinde –özellikle ticarete konu olan malların enflasyon oranı üzerinde– etkili olduğunu göstermiştir.
    Keywords: Central Banks, Monetary Policy, Globalization, Inflation
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2009

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