| Abstract: |
We assess the effects of oil price shocks on real exchange rate and output in
four large energy-producing countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and
Russia. We estimate four-variable structural vector autoregressive models
using standard long-run restrictions. Not surprisingly, we find that higher
real oil prices are associated with higher output. However, we also find that
supply shocks are by far the most important driver of real output in all four
countries, possibly due to ongoing transition and catching-up. Similarly, oil
shocks do not account for a large share of movements in the real exchange
rate, although they are clearly more significant for Iran and Venezuela than
for the other countries. |