nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2009‒04‒18
six papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries: Evidence from TAR and M-TAR Models By Mohammadi, Hassan; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.
  2. A Theory of the Islamic Revival By Jean-Paul Carvalho
  3. Oil Service Contracts - New Incentive Schemes to Promote Drilling Efficiency By Osmundsen, Petter; Sørenes, Terje; Toft , Anders
  4. Financial market pressures, tacit collusion and oil price formation By Aune, Finn Roar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter; Rosendahl, Knut Einar
  5. Design and Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures for Turkey By Oguz Atuk; Mustafa Utku Ozmen
  6. Education-Occupation Mismatch and the Effect on Wages of Egyptian Workers By Fatma El-Hamidi

  1. By: Mohammadi, Hassan; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.
    Abstract: The paper studies the long-run relation and short-run dynamics between real oil prices and real exchange rates in a sample of fourteen oil-exporting countries to examine the possibility of Dutch disease in these countries. The results, based on threshold and momentum-threshold autoregressive (TAR and M-TAR) tests of cointegration, are mixed. Support for Dutch disease is found in five countries. For these countries, we also find evidence of (a) long-run uni-directional causality from oil prices to exchange rates; (b) faster adjustments in exchange rates to positive deviations from the equilibrium; and (c) short-run unidirectional causality from oil prices to exchange rates in two countries, unidirectional causality from exchange rates to oil prices in one country, and bi-directional causality between oil prices and exchange rates in one country.
    Keywords: Asymmetry; Cointegration; Dutch Disease; Error Correction; Oil Prices; Real Exchange Rates; Threshold and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive Models
    JEL: F37 C32 C52 F47 F31
    Date: 2009–02
  2. By: Jean-Paul Carvalho
    Abstract: There has been a dramatic surge in Islamic participation and values since the 1970s. We propose a theory of the contemporary Islamic revival based upon two forms of relative deprivation - envy and unfulfilled aspirations. To analyze these motivations, a behavioral model of religion is developed in which agents have reference-dependent preferences. We demonstrate that raised aspirations, low social mobility, high income inequality and poverty are intimately related, not separate causes of a religious revival. As such, the origins of the Islamic revival are traced to a combination of two developments: (1) a growth reversal which raised aspirations and led subsequently to a decline in social mobility which left aspirations unfulfilled among the educated middle class, (2) increasing income inequality impoverishment of the lower-middle class. The sexual revolution in the West and rapid urbanization in Muslim societies intensified this process of religious revival.
    Keywords: Islamic revival, Economics of religion, Endogenous preferences, Reference-dependent preferences, Inequality, Relative deprivation
    JEL: Z12 J22
    Date: 2009
  3. By: Osmundsen, Petter (University of Stavanger); Sørenes, Terje; Toft , Anders
    Abstract: ,
    Keywords: Oil
    JEL: A10
    Date: 2009–03–01
  4. By: Aune, Finn Roar; Mohn, Klaus (University of Stavanger); Osmundsen, Petter (University of Stavanger); Rosendahl, Knut Einar
    Abstract: ,
    Keywords: Oil Market; Investment behaviour; market power; collusion; equilibrium model
    JEL: G31 L13 Q41
    Date: 2009–10–01
  5. By: Oguz Atuk; Mustafa Utku Ozmen
    Date: 2009
  6. By: Fatma El-Hamidi
    Abstract: . . .
    Date: 2009–04

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