nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2009‒04‒05
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Assess The Long Run Effects Of Monetary Policy On Bank lending,Foreign Asset and Liability In MENA Countries By Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi
  2. Terrorism and the Regional and Religious Risk Perception of Foreigners: The Case of German Tourists By Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Bastian Franke; Wolfgang Maennig
  3. The Resilience of Authoritarian Rule in Syria under Hafez and Bashar Al-Asad By Annette Büchs

  1. By: Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi
    Abstract: In this empirical study, we perform cointegrated relation to analyze the effects of monetary policy on bank credit to private sector, foreign assets and foreign debts in ten MENA countries include: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Tunis and Turkey. There are two co-integration techniques, the Johanson co-integration and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) are used to examine long run relationship between the variables. The empirical evidences with aggregate data of ten MENA countries show that bank credit to private sector and foreign asset increasing with a monetary expansion. However, the positions of banks’ foreign debts aren’t similar for different countries. Hence, the aggregate data show that bank lending channel is likely to be an effective monetary transmission mechanism in MENA countries.
    Keywords: Bank Lending; Monetary Transmission; Capital Flows
    JEL: E51 F32 E52
    Date: 2009–03–29
  2. By: Gabriel Ahlfeldt (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Bastian Franke; Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: This paper analyses how German tourists react to unanticipated shocks that alter their risk perception of selected tourism destinations. Using a difference-in-difference strategy which flexibly accounts for macroeconomic conditions and also addresses potential problems of serial correlation, we isolate significant effects of the 9/11 (2001) terrorist attacks, as well as for the attacks in Egypt (1997), Tunisia (2002), Morocco (2003) and Indonesia (2003). These terror attacks impacted especially on Islamic countries all over the world, indicating a transmission mechanism driven by ethnic and religious proximity. At the same time, tourism into Islamic countries was temporarily substituted by tourism to (south) European countries.
    Keywords: Keywords: Terrorism; 9/11; Islamic Countries; Tourism Demand
    JEL: R19 D89
    Date: 2009
  3. By: Annette Büchs (GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies)
    Abstract: This paper seeks an explanation for the resilience of the Syrian authoritarian regime under Hafez and Bashar Al-Asad. It will be argued that this resilience is to a relevant extent caused by the fact that the regime’s “material” as well as “ideational” forms of power share a common element, if not an underlying principle. This generates their compatibility and congruency and thus produces a convergence of forces which manifests in the regime’s ability to exceed the mere sum of its individual forms of power. It will be demonstrated that this common principle can be conceptualized as a “tacit pact” between unequal parties, with the weaker party under constant threat of exclusion and/or coercion in the event of noncompliance. It will be argued that inherent in the pact is a high level of ambiguity; this, paradoxically, renders it more effective but at the same time also more instable as a tool of domination.
    Keywords: authoritarianism, power of command, disciplinary power, hegemony, Middle East
    Date: 2009–03

This nep-ara issue is ©2009 by Quentin Wodon. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.