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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Boscow Okumu (African Population and Health Research Centre); Herbert Ntuli (University of Cape Town); Edwin Muchapondwa (University of Cape Town); Gibson Mudiriza (University of Cape Town); Alfred Mukong (University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Climate change and variability poses a significant hindrance on agricultural productivity. The adverse effects are particularly concerning in many African countries that rely more on rainfed subsistence agriculture for livelihood. The promotion of climate smart agriculture technologies as a pathway to enhancing food security, farmer’s welfare, and providing climate adaptation and mitigation benefits is one of the several interventions aimed at improving agricultural productivity. However, there has been a dearth of evidence on the determinants of adoption of climate smart agriculture practices as well as the impact of climate smart agriculture practices on food security and household welfare. This paper contributes to this knowledge gap by using the probit model to explore the drivers of uptake of climate smart agriculture practices and the inverse probability weighting regression model and the instrumental variable approach to assess the impact on food security and household savings and household vulnerability. We find that the adoption of climate smart agriculture practices among smallholder farmers is influenced by land ownership, climatic variables, land terrain, and household sociodemographic characteristics. The study further revealed that adoption of climate smart agriculture practices leads to reduction in household savings and household vulnerability but leads to improved food security. The findings suggest the need to promote climate smart agriculture practices aimed at livestock management, enhanced agricultural extension work and reduced resource constraints that inhibit farmer’s capacity to adopt complementary practices among others. |
| Keywords: | Climate smart, food security, Savings, Vulnerability |
| JEL: | Q01 Q18 Q54 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:44 |
| By: | Mohamed, Shima; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan’s agricultural sector in 2026 is facing unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing conflict, economic instability, and climate-related shocks. These overlapping crises have severely disrupted farming activities, market systems, and rural livelihoods across the country. The situation is particularly critical for smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Sudan’s food production and rural economy. This report assesses the state of agriculture in conflict-affected Sudan, with a focus on input use, crop production, market access, and farming household-level challenges. It draws data from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey, conducted across 13 of Sudan’s 18 states. The survey covered both the 2023/24 winter cropping season and preparations for the 2024 summer season. The findings reveal that Sudan’s agriculture sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. Migration and displacement due to the conflict are reshaping the structure of farming households, while asset losses, reduced cultivated land, and declining livestock holdings undermine their resilience. Household incomes have contracted sharply. Engagement in agricultural activities has dropped, while reliance of farming households on non-agricultural businesses, casual labor, and humanitarian assistance has increased. Food insecurity has reached alarming levels—fewer than one in four households are food secure, while over half are severely food insecure. Food-insecure households are most prevalent in conflict-affected states, such as South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Blue Nile. However, improvements were seen in access to input and output markets and the adoption of agricultural inputs in the 2023/24 winter season compared to the 2023 summer season. Farmers reported better availability of improved seed and fertilizer and more reliable input markets and crop-selling channels. However, these gains are overshadowed by growing uncertainty—a large portion of farmers indicated that they did not plan to cultivate crops during the 2024 summer season. Farmer’s access to finance and external assistance remained highly constrained. Farming households that used credit primarily relied on informal credit sources. More than three-quarters reported receiving no external assistance in 2024. Where support is available, its distribution remains uneven, with conflict-affected areas facing severe delivery challenges. Farmers report widespread exposure to both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks such as illness, flooding, theft, and violence—all of which compound their vulnerability. The coping strategies they use include selling household goods, reducing agricultural investment, or liquidating assets. Such choices provide short-term relief but jeopardize their long-term recovery. Perceptions of insecurity remain widespread, particularly in states experiencing active conflict. Overall, the findings paint a picture of a farming sector under extreme strain in Sudan. Without urgent, state-specific, and conflict-sensitive interventions, rural livelihoods will continue to deteriorate, further threatening national food security. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen humanitarian support, revitalize agricultural input and finance systems, protect the assets of farming households, restore markets, and invest in building the resilience of farming households to both conflict and climate risks. Tailored interventions are needed to address state-level disparities, including food and security support in the Kordofan region, water and health services in Red Sea and Kassala states, and agricultural inputs in Aj Jazirah and River Nile. Long-term strategies must also invest in climate-smart agriculture, strengthen social protection systems, and ensure conflict-sensitive approaches that protect farmers and rebuild trust in rural communities. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; farming; livelihoods; resilience; armed conflicts; smallholders; surveys; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:182880 |
| By: | Aung, Zin Wai; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | We analyzed rice productivity and profitability data for the 2025 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2026. The survey covered plots managed by 2, 734 rice producers across all states and regions of the country. As no MAPS survey was conducted during the 2024 monsoon season, we compare performance changes with those observed in 2023. Our findings reveal the following: 1. National rice productivity, measured on farmers’ largest plots, declined by an average of 8 percent during the 2025 monsoon compared to 2023. This lower productivity was primarily driven by reduced incentives for production as shown by reduced labor inputs, with more farmers adopting broadcasting methods, as well as an increased incidence of natural shocks, notably floods and heavy rains. 2. The Delta agro-ecological zone, the country’s principal rice-producing area, experienced a 7 percent decline in rice productivity in 2025 compared to 2023, while the Coastal agro-ecological zone recorded the largest decline among all zones, with yields falling by 22 percent. This sharp reduction was partly driven by poor performance in Rakhine State, which was largely cut off from commercial input and output markets in 2025, considerably reducing the use of modern inputs in rice production. 3. Thirty-six percent of paddy farmers reported being affected by climatic or other production shocks during the 2025 monsoon season. Floods, reported by 10 percent of farmers, and heavy rains, reported by 15 percent, had significant adverse effects on yields. Among affected farmers, paddy yields declined by 34 percent and 15 percent, respectively. 4. Significant changes in rice cultivation input costs were observed between the 2023 and 2025 monsoon seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 23 percent, while mechanization costs, measured through plowing costs, increased by 55 percent. Wages recorded the sharpest increases, likely reflecting escalating rural labor scarcity. Wages increased by 88 percent for men and 83 percent for women. Overall input expenditures per acre of rice cultivated increased by 63 percent. 5. Farmgate paddy prices declined by 6 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices between the 2023 and 2025 monsoon seasons. 6. Given rising input costs and declining paddy prices, paddy farming profits declined substantially and reached their lowest level in the last six years. Nominal profits per acre fell by 40 percent between 2023 and 2025. 7. Commercially obtained inputs are significantly associated with higher rice yields. A doubling of commercial input expenditures is associated with a 34 percent increase in yields, while a doubling of chemical fertilizer use is associated with a 9 percent increase in yields, ceteris paribus. The use of organic fertilizer is also positively and significantly associated with higher yields, with users obtaining yields that are 4 percent higher on average. The outlook for paddy production in 2026 appears highly uncertain due to several factors: 1. The Iran war: High fuel prices, as well as constrained fuel availability resulting from the Iran war, are likely to complicate transportation, irrigation, and agricultural mechanization, thereby affecting preparation for the next monsoon season. Fertilizer prices have also risen sharply and are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future (Arita et al. 2026), with likely negative consequences for use rates and profitability for paddy production during the 2026 monsoon (USDA 2026). 2. Weather conditions: Adverse weather conditions, as observed during the 2025 monsoon, can significantly affect yields. Most climate models predict El Niño conditions during the second half of 2026. These conditions are typically associated with drier-than-average rainfall, which could lead to lower rice yields. 3. Evolution of insecurity: Insecurity is associated with reduced access to agricultural inputs and higher input costs where inputs remain available, thereby reducing profitability for farmers in these areas. 4. Labor scarcity: Labor availability is expected to remain constrained during the next monsoon season due to significant out-migration (linked to the Military Service Law). These findings point to three key implications for Myanmar’s rice sector: 1. Ensuring access to agricultural inputs: Myanmar’s rice sector is highly commercialized, and access to commercial inputs is crucial for its performance. Risks associated with the Iran war, particularly regarding fuel and chemical fertilizer availability and prices, pose serious challenges for the functioning of the sector. While some commercial inputs could potentially be partially substituted with local production factors, such as agricultural labor replacing mechanized operations or organic fertilizers substituting for chemical fertilizers, a lack of access to these commercial inputs would nevertheless have major implications for rice production and national food security. Where feasible, encouraging such substitution may help mitigate some of these impacts. 2. Expanding access to climate-resilient seeds and other climate-smart agricultural technologies: As farmers are increasingly relying on self-preserved paddy seeds, there is an urgent need for them to have access to and to promote improved, high-yielding, and stress-tolerant rice varieties. Our findings show that farmers affected by floods and droughts experience substantially lower yields than unaffected farmers. Given the expected increase in weather-related shocks associated with climate change, as well as anticipated El Niño conditions, wider adoption of adapted seed varieties as well as other climate-smart agricultural technologies will be critical. 3. Ensuring profitability in rice farming: Rice farming profitability was severely stressed in 2025. This raises concerns about production incentives for the upcoming monsoon season, particularly as input costs continue to rise while rice prices – at least internationally – remain stagnant. Adjustment of the dual exchange rate system that currently depresses output prices would be beneficial. Ensuring adequate rice availability in the country may also require expanded access to credit schemes, or targeted input voucher programs for poorer smallholders, to sustain production and national food security. |
| Keywords: | rice; agricultural productivity; profitability; monsoon climate; wet season; farm inputs; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:183098 |
| By: | Schmidt, Emily; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Monoi, Belinda; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude |
| Abstract: | Enhancing the fresh produce value chain in PNG will contribute to wider development goals including rural economic growth, food and nutrition security and rural employment diversification. An important component of strengthening agriculture value chains in PNG will be increasing crop productivity and quality. However, equally important is strengthening agricultural markets and rural – urban linkages. Recognizing the importance of supporting greater domestic fresh produce marketing, the PNG government (GoPNG) continues to promote investments that link farmers to markets, primarily through the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) (DAL 2023). A principal mechanism for promoting rural economic growth and strengthening agriculture value chains involves enabling the more commercially oriented smallholder farming households to significantly increase their productivity through greater use of modern farming inputs over an increasing share of local arable land (Benny et al., 2022). As the income of more productive farm households grows, their demand for locally produced goods and services increases. These goods and services are generally labor-intensive, require limited capital in their production, and are typically not marketed outside of the local community. This includes construction and associated services; transport and infrastructure services; education, health, and other social services; food and beverage processing; and the like, which facilitate greater (and often higher value) labor diversification and specialization within the rural economy. Fresh produce value chains remain understudied in many low- and middle-income countries, despite their demonstrated role in promoting rural economic growth, improved welfare, and dietary diversity. This lack of information and analysis is particularly acute in Papua New Guinea (PNG), whereby dated or limited evidence exists on agriculture production and expansion, fresh produce trade flows, price formation and price variation over time, throughout seasons, and across regions. Understanding these production and market dynamics is essential for supporting value chain actors in developing profitable and sustainable systems that provide farmers with the incentives they need to supply fresh produce to trustworthy and transparent markets. This synopsis draws upon 2 detailed studies (Schmidt et al., 2025; and Minten et al., 2025) that aim to inform opportunities for investment in the fresh produce value chain by: 1) analyzing remote sensing data to estimate agricultural expansion in horticulture production areas of the PNG highlands; 2) evaluating unique market flow and fresh produce price data collected over a 15-year period by FPDA; and 3) estimating the price margins of each value chain actor in the fresh produce value chain through in-depth stakeholder interviews. The structure of this synopsis report is as follows. Section 2 provides an analysis of agriculture expansion over time and fresh produce market flows from the Highlands fresh produce corridor. Section 3 examines price trends and marketing margins across 6 key markets in diverse locations of the country. Section 4 reports on in-depth stakeholder interviews to unpackage costs along the value chain from farmgate to retailer. Section 5 concludes with key findings and implications. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; fresh products; agricultural value chains; value chains; trade; markets; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:182350 |
| By: | Arvind Ashta |
| Abstract: | The Fourth Agricultural Revolution promises to reconcile productivity with environmental sustainability through nine transformative technologies: artificial intelligence, IoT sensors, robotics, biotechnology, drones, precision irrigation, vertical farming, blockchain, and digital twins. This critical review examines both environmental impacts and socioeconomic implications through an analysis of peer-reviewed research.This review documents substantial environmental benefits such as water conservation, pesticide reductions and disease detection accuracies. However, the analysis reveals an equity-efficiency paradox: technologies delivering the greatest environmental benefits often impose the most severe social costs. Capital-intensive systems create barriers for 500 million smallholder farmers. Agricultural robotics threatens vulnerable migrant workers with displacement. Digital platforms risk reducing farmers from independent producers to dependent data subjects. Additional concerns include psychological stress from information overload, erosion of farmer-land connections, and technological lock-in restricting repair autonomy. The analysis suggests an agricultural sustainability trilemma where agriculture 4.0 technologies achieve environmental and economic goals while undermining equity, raising questions about whether all three can coexist. Corporate mega-mergers have concentrated control—the "Big Four" now control over 60% of global seed sales and agrochemicals. Large operations in wealthy nations capture benefits while smallholders, workers, and communities bear costs of exclusion, displacement, and lost autonomy. A critical finding is systematic absence of quantitative social impact data across all dimensions. I propose a research agenda emphasizing inclusive development, just transition programs, data governance reforms, and food sovereignty protections to navigate between environmental promise and social perils. |
| Keywords: | Fourth Agricultural Revolution; Precision agriculture; Agricultural sustainability; Equity and access; Food sovereignty; Corporate consolidation; Digital agriculture; Trilemma |
| JEL: | Q16 Q18 Q55 O33 O13 D63 O32 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/408009 |
| By: | Ei Win, Hnin; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper presents findings from an assessment of farm commercialization and farm services during the 2025 monsoon. The analysis is based on data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), a phone-based survey conducted with 4, 553 crop farmers across all states/regions of the country during Q1 of 2026. Our findings reveal the following: Insecurity continues to affect farming, as reflected in the substantial share of farmers who feel unsafe and report being unable to move freely to buy inputs or sell outputs without serious concerns for their safety. Twenty-three percent of farmers reported feeling “very insecure” or “insecure” during the survey period. Additionally, 7 percent reported that some agricultural fields in their area could not be cultivated due to conflict. Furthermore, 9 percent of farmers expressed fear of storing produce at home because of the risk of confiscation or destruction. Despite challenges related to fuel and mobility, agricultural inputs were largely available during the monsoon, reflecting the resilience of the private sector in supplying these goods even under difficult conditions. However, labor scarcity is becoming more pronounced, seemingly linked to migration and insecurity. Input prices continued to rise, with fertilizer prices increasing by 24 percent compared to two years earlier. Other input costs, including mechanization and wages, increased even more. On the output side, prices for paddy—grown by 64 percent of all farmers during the monsoon—fell over the last two years, leading to reduced investments and lower agricultural productivity. Other crops linked to export markets also experienced price declines or only moderate increases over the same period, including pigeon pea (-18 percent) and maize (+28 percent), compared to much larger increases for more domestically consumed crops such as tomato (+178 percent), betel nut (+75 percent), and betel leaves (+43 percent). Most farmers reported either stabilization or worsening of agricultural sales income compared to the previous monsoon. Thirty-nine percent of farmers reported lower incomes in the 2025 monsoon season than in the previous monsoon, with 22 percent experiencing declines of more than 20 percent. Only 30 percent reported an increase in sales income. The use of agricultural credit during the 2025 monsoon continued its decline, falling from 47 percent of farmers in 2021 to 38 percent in 2025—a decrease of 9 percentage points. This decline occurred across all agro-ecological zones except the Delta. Access to agricultural extension services remained at levels similar to previous years, with 35 percent of farmers accessing some type of extension service. Security challenges continue to hinder crop commercialization in Myanmar. Conditions vary across states and regions, with the Delta—the country’s rice bowl—experiencing relatively better security conditions. Farmers in conflict-affected areas face greater obstacles to commercialization, including reduced availability of agricultural inputs. |
| Keywords: | commercialization; agricultural sector; surveys; wet season; prices; marketing; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:183097 |
| By: | Lamonaca, Emilia; Maccarone, Irene; Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano |
| Abstract: | Catastrophic (CAT) weather events are rare and impactful, yet still poorly considered in ex-ante risk management policy interventions. Subsidised crop insurance schemes are not an exception, although the systemic nature of those risks has cascading effects that are reflected on the entire food systems and along the value chains. The Italian subsidised crop insurance market, and its dynamics vis-à-vis CAT events, including flood, drought, and frost, is an interesting case study. Insurance uptake and coverage increase after CAT shocks, signalling their value in strengthening farmers resilience to climate changes. The responsiveness is higher when coverage is predominant, with markedly heterogeneous patterns calling for deeper understanding of the trade-offs that are put in place by these policy instruments, central in the EU risk management strategy. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Climatic risk; Extreme event; Risk management; Subsidised insurance. |
| JEL: | G22 G32 Q14 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129322 |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; Reardon, Thomas; Zu, A Myint; Htar, May Thet |
| Abstract: | Increased vertical integration and coordination are defining features of transforming and modernizing agricultural value chains in low- and middle-income countries, with important implications for market efficiency and farm-level transformation. However, research documenting these processes in modernizing domestic value chains is limited, and tends to focus on foreign direct investment and high-value food products. We study the rice value chain – the most important staple in Southeast Asia – in Myanmar and use unique data from domestic rice mills and farmers to analyze millers’ expansion into other businesses and services. We show that both modern and traditional mills serve as key nodes in local rice value chains, fulfilling diverse roles beyond processing at both the farm and post-farm levels and highlighting a co-development of modern processing and vertical integration. Yet, statistical tests that control for mill and farmer characteristics, respectively, show that modern mills are more engaged in vertical integration and coordination, particularly in post-farm value chain segments, highlighting the co-development of modern processing and business expansion. Consistent with this pattern in the miller data, farmers using a modern mill are more likely to receive complementary services – especially post-farm – and to adopt modern production practices more broadly. However, this expansion is uneven, reaching large farms more frequently than small and medium farms. |
| Keywords: | value chains; agricultural value chains; rice; agro-industrial sector; vertical integration; modernization; milling; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:182623 |
| By: | Ranjana Roy (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | India's agriculture is undergoing a gradual structural transformation, with a slow shift from cereal-dominated systems toward high-value horticulture. In this context, protected cultivation has emerged as a technology-driven pathway to promote crop diversification, enhance productivity, and stabilize farm incomes. Drawing on national trends and field-based evidence from Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, the study finds that protected cultivation—particularly polyhouse-based capsicum production—delivers substantially higher yields and returns compared to traditional paddy–wheat systems. Despite high initial investment costs, financial analysis indicates strong profitability and robust returns under supported conditions, highlighting its potential as a viable alternative for income enhancement. However, the adoption of protected cultivation remains limited due to several structural and operational constraints. These include high upfront capital requirements, dependence on subsidies, gaps in technical knowledge, and inefficiencies such as weak market linkages and price volatility. While institutional initiatives like Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture (MIDH) and Centres of Excellence (CoEs) have supported technology dissemination and capacity building, challenges in scalability persist. The study concludes that realizing the full potential of protected cultivation will require coordinated policy support, improved access to credit, strengthened extension services, investment in post-harvest infrastructure, and region-specific strategies to enable a transition toward a more resilient and high-value agricultural system. |
| Keywords: | cultivation, Farmer Income, horticulture, croping pattern, fruit production, vegetable production, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-14 |
| By: | Schmidt, Emily; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Minten, Bart; Monoi, Belinda; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude |
| Abstract: | The Government of Papua New Guinea (GoPNG) aims to promote agricultural transformation through strategic investments to support greater commercialization via increases in production output and quality. To accomplish this goal, the GoPNG recently released the National Agriculture Sector Plan (NASP) 2024-2033 which acknowledges the fresh produce sector’s potential to contribute to poverty alleviation and economic growth via increased income for rural farmers (Department of Agriculture and Livestock 2023). With growing urbanization and expanding mining operations, the demand for fresh produce is increasing within the country (Chang et al. 2015). While the challenges that PNG faces to promote a more competitive fresh produce agriculture sector are not simple hurdles to overcome, they are not impossible barriers to surpass either. This report sets out to achieve three goals: 1) provide an assessment of PNG’s fresh produce farming and sales trends using remote sensing data and recent data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA); 2) report on current programming (namely Market for Village Farmers) aimed at supporting fresh produce value chain development; and 3) inform future programming of fresh produce value chain support through a detailed account of a scoping study of the fresh produce sector conducted in June, 2025 and November, 2025. |
| Keywords: | fresh products; value chains; agricultural value chains; agriculture; vegetables; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:182348 |
| By: | Rakhy, Tarig; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Sudan is facing profound economic and market disruptions driven by prolonged conflict, political instability, and severe macroeconomic deterioration. These shocks have substantially undermined agricultural production, disrupted supply chains, and weakened market functioning across the country. Agriculture, which remains central to livelihoods, food security, and economic activity in Sudan, has been particularly affected by infrastructure damage, population displacement, rising input and transport costs, and increasing fragmentation of markets. In this context, food availability and affordability have become highly volatile, with wide spatial disparities across states and localities. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; prices; value added; data collection; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:179544 |
| By: | Camille Luis (UPR HORTSYS - Fonctionnement agroécologique et performances des systèmes de cultures horticoles - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Magali Aubert (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Laurent Parrot (UPR HORTSYS - Fonctionnement agroécologique et performances des systèmes de cultures horticoles - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Faced with current agricultural challenges, vegetable production systems in Martinique and Guadeloupe are being called to transition towards more environmentally-friendly practices. These territories hold significant potential to address these challenges in terms of food security, sustainability and resilience to climate change. In this context, having a better understanding of the diversity of vegetable farms is an essential step in shedding light on the dynamics of agroecological practices and chemicals use. The study is based on a typological analysis of 409 farms. We first categorize farms according to their structure, their economic performance, the individual characteristics of their farmers and their additional activities. Three clusters of farms emerged: (1) the survivors which are poorly diversified, generate low incomes and operate on small surfaces; (2) the diversified which are similar to the first group but are differentiated by their high diversity in terms of crops and para-agricultural activities and by a greater use of direct sales; and (3) the big farms which are cultivated on large surfaces, need more workforce and generate a higher income. Based on this typology, we characterize their agroecological profile according to their degree of agroecological practices, pesticides and chemical fertilizers use. The results show that diversified farms are the most engaged in agroecology with less reliance on chemicals and a greater adoption of agroecological practices compared to the survivors and the big farms. This study thus allows to characterize the vegetable production systems in the French West Indies and highlights the facilitating role of diversification and small farm size in the development of agroecology. |
| Abstract: | Face aux enjeux agricoles et climatiques actuels, les systèmes de production maraîchère en Martinique et en Guadeloupe sont appelés à évoluer vers des pratiques plus respectueuses de l'environnement et à s'adapter. Ces territoires présentent un potentiel important pour répondre aux défis de sécurité alimentaire, de durabilité et de résilience face au changement climatique. Dans ce contexte, mieux comprendre la diversité des profils d'exploitations constitue une étape essentielle pour éclairer les dynamiques d'utilisation de pratiques agroécologiques et d'intrants de synthèse. Cette étude s'appuie sur une analyse typologique réalisée auprès de 409 exploitations. Nous nous attachons dans un premier temps à catégoriser les exploitations agricoles en fonction de leur structure, leur performance économique, les caractéristiques individuelles des exploitants et leurs activités annexes. Trois groupes d'exploitations ressortent : (1) les subsistantes, qui sont faiblement diversifiées, apportent un revenu faible et couvrent de petites surfaces agricoles ; (2) les diversifiées en termes de cultures et d'activités para-agricoles et ayant davantage recours à la vente directe ; et (3) les grandes exploitations qui sont sur de larges surfaces, nécessitent plus de main-d'œuvre et apportent un revenu plus élevé. Sur la base de cette typologie, nous caractérisons leur profil agroécologique selon leur degré d'utilisation de pratiques agroécologiques, de pesticides et d'engrais de synthèse. Les résultats mettent en évidence que les exploitations diversifiées sont les plus engagées dans l'agroécologie avec un recours moindre aux intrants de synthèse et une plus grande adoption de pratiques agroécologiques, comparées aux subsistantes et aux grandes exploitations. Cette étude permet souligne le rôle facilitateur de la diversification et de la petite taille des exploitations dans le développement de l'agroécologie. |
| Keywords: | zones insulaires, typologie des exploitations maraîchères, pratique agricole, agroécologie, intrants de synthèse, agroecology, agricultural practices, chemicals, vegetable farms typology, insular areas, zones insulaires agroecology, agroécologie pratique agricole intrants de synthèse typologie des exploitations maraîchères zones insulaires agroecology agricultural practices chemicals vegetable farms typology insular areas |
| Date: | 2026–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05645706 |
| By: | Braide, Tamunotonye M.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D. |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a taro yield emulator to assess climate change impacts on taro production in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The emulator uses a fixed-effects polynomial regression trained on DSSAT simulations to capture non-linear, stage-specific responses of taro yields to rainfall and temperature. Historical MSWX weather and future climates from CMIP6/ISIMIP3b and a large MIT-IGSM/AgERA5 sample are used to drive the emulator and assess changes in average yields, yield variability, and the frequency of low-yield years across PNG. Our analysis shows that taro appears to be sensitive to both low- and high-rainfall levels during particular phases of growth and is sensitive to heat during particular phases, as well. Our visit to farmers fields in the Markham Valley along with discussions with experts at GrowPNG in Lae, NARI, and PNG University of Technology in Lae alerted us to the fact that drought was a serious problem for taro, but the model revealed the additional issues with high rainfall and high temperature, along with the additional information about the months that were particularly important for determining the degree of damage that adverse weather might do to yields. National-average yield changes by mid-century under high-emissions scenarios are projected to be small based on the median projections across climate models, however one of the climate models projects a much larger temperature increase relative to the other models, and for that climate model, the yield reduction is around 9% on average. |
| Keywords: | taro; crop yield; climate change; impact; climate change impacts; crop modelling; fixed costs; regression analysis; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2026–04–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:182470 |
| By: | Frédéric Bonin (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Meriem Fournier (SILVA - SILVA - AgroParisTech - UL - Université de Lorraine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Benoît Grasser (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Myriam Legay (SILVA - SILVA - AgroParisTech - UL - Université de Lorraine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This study shows how climate change profoundly reshapes forest planning routines. Based on a French state forest case study, it demonstrates a shift from rigid, long-term planning toward adaptive planning built on shorter cycles, continuous monitoring through remote sensing, and renewed governance that strengthens coordination within forest administrations and with external stakeholders. Context: Climate change fundamentally challenges the foundations of traditional forest planning, which has long relied on stable ecological baselines, long-term predictability, and deterministic planning cycles. Increasing disturbances such as droughts, pests, and large-scale dieback undermine these assumptions and create conditions of prolonged uncertainty, rendering conventional planning increasingly ineffective. Aims: We explored how forest planners adapt their practices to cope with this prolonged uncertainty and provide emerging alternatives, through the theoretical framework of organizational routines to analyze both stability and change. Methods: We conducted an in-depth single-case study of a French state forest, combining interviews, field observations, and analysis of management documents. Using an abductive and processual approach, we traced the sequencing of actions, actors, and artifacts to understand how forest planning routines evolve in practice. Results: We identify three major shifts: the shortening of planning cycles to reduce long-term obsolescence; the integration of continuous monitoring enabled by remote sensing technologies; and the redesign of governance arrangements to enhance internal coordination and stakeholder engagement. Conclusion: Forest planning is transitioning from a fixed long-term roadmap toward an adaptive, continuously updated process designed to cope with persistent uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Prolonged uncertainty, Forest planning, Monitoring, Organizational routine, Pattern |
| Date: | 2026–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05642036 |
| By: | Clémence Barrey; Marielle Brunette; David Shanafelt |
| Abstract: | Forests provide a wide range of goods and services that are threatened by natural disturbances, which represent one of thegreatest threats to forests worldwide. Climate change increases their frequency and intensity, creating a multirisk context in which different hazards act in combination. How forest owners perceive these interconnected risks is crucial for the implementation of adaptation strategies and the development of relevant public policy. In this article, we conduct a literature review examining how existing articles address risk perception in forests, particularly in relation to multirisk. Our review focuses exclusively on research articles written in english, with at least one keyword for risk perception, forests, and risk. More specifically, we examine whether the methodologies used to study isolated risks remain relevant when considering multirisk. Our main conclusion is that no study directly addresses the perception of multirisk in forests, as almost all the articles consider risks in isolation. Methodologically, most studies rely on surveys conducted among professionals, forest owners, or local residents. Very few articles are theoretically grounded or based on economic models. In addition, the literature reveals a lack of diversity in both the risks and countries studied, with the majority of papers focusing on wildfires in the United States. Therefore, understanding the perception of multirisk in forests remains a broad field for future research, both theoretically- particularly in economics- and empirically, through further exploration of underrepresented countries. |
| Keywords: | Forest; Risk; Perception; Multirisk; Review; Cognitive |
| JEL: | D83 D91 Q23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-16 |
| By: | Robertson, Richard D. |
| Abstract: | Process based crop simulation models can be used to anticipate how crop yields behave under different weather conditions which makes them useful for assessing the implications for yields of weather variability, uncertainty, and climate change. However, they can be cumbersome to use or embed in other models. Hence, developing statistical models that emulate the full models can provide a lighter-weight means of harnessing their power for rapid or high-volume assessments. We develop emulators for several major crops. Climate and fertilizer rates are matched to the yields simulated by a full crop model to provide a dataset covering the entire land surface of the globe. We use neural network specifications to be able to easily try out different levels of complexity. The final selection of the emulator models is a balance between complexity and performance. The large amount of data meant that the emulators could support complicated specifications. We ultimately settled on models with approximately 200 parameters. Neither rainfed nor irrigated conditions were consistently better performing. In general, the r-squared values of the estimated emulators ranged from 0.85 to 0.95. No crops appeared significantly easier or more difficult to model than the others. The emulators we developed provide a simple substitute for more complicated crop models when a high level of detail is not needed. The approach can be easily updated with new data or be applied to more specific circumstances if necessary by creating custom datasets that emphasize the particular conditions anticipated to be most important. |
| Keywords: | crop modelling; models; crop yield; climate change impacts; climate change |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:182490 |
| By: | Shiwakoti, Avyash |
| Abstract: | The circular economy (CE) offers a practical alternative to the linear “take–make–dispose” model dominating Nepal’s agricultural system, which employs approximately 61% of the workforce and contributes around 22% of GDP. Despite its significance, open burning or unregulated disposal largely mismanages agricultural waste, including crop residues, livestock manure, and agro-chemical packaging. This conceptual review examines the applicability of CE principles to Nepal’s agricultural waste sector at national and sub-national policy levels. Drawing on the Ellen MacArthur Foundation framework and recent Nepal-specific studies, the paper identifies four key opportunities: crop residue valorization, livestock waste-to-biogas systems, agro-industrial circular clusters (CEICs), and enabling mechanisms such as digital residue aggregation platforms and extended producer responsibility. However, significant barriers persist, including fragmented landholdings, weak institutional coordination, high infrastructure costs, and limited farmer awareness. The paper argues that CE is not optional but essential for Nepal’s resource-constrained federal context. Three policy priorities emerge: developing a national CE roadmap for agricultural waste, strengthening biogas–biofertilizer value chains through market-based mechanisms, and piloting inter-municipal CEICs across agro-ecological zones. This review contributes to evidence-based policymaking for sustainable agricultural transformation in Nepal. |
| Date: | 2026–05–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5aeg3_v1 |
| By: | Jameson, Daisy; Croce, Raffaele Della; Valero, Anna; Read, Maxwell; Serin, Esin |
| Abstract: | The UK is experiencing increasing impacts from climate change, including more frequent and severe floods, heatwaves and storms. It needs to prepare more for these impacts. It also needs to honour its pledge to support climate adaptation efforts in developing countries. The UK should maximise the opportunity from an increase in the demand for adaptation goods and services, including flood defences, climate-resilient building materials and crops, innovative insurance products and treatments for vector-borne diseases, both at home and globally. There is an economic, social and environmental imperative to scale up and innovate in adaptation-related goods and services, especially in those areas where the UK has an existing and potential comparative advantage |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138261 |
| By: | O'Rourke, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity is widely used to identify vulnerable households, yet the literature remains divided over what exactly it captures. One perspective treats food insecurity as a proxy for economic disadvantage—a view supported by cross-sectional associations but complicated by recent causal evidence. A second perspective contends that food insecurity reflects subjective perceptions of hardship rather than objective economic deprivation, but empirical evidence on this hypothesis is limited. A third perspective emphasizes that food insecurity primarily depends on household experiences of other forms of hardship. Using longitudinal data from three nationally representative surveys, this study adjudicates between these perspectives by examining how food insecurity changes within households as economic resources, subjective wellbeing, and material hardship change over time. I find that food insecurity is highly stable within households over time and is only weakly responsive to changes in economic resources and subjective wellbeing. By contrast, food insecurity increases when households experience other direct forms of hardship, including worsening housing conditions and greater difficulty paying bills. These findings challenge the idea that households substitute one form of hardship for another when navigating scarcity. Instead, food insecurity appears to coincide with other forms of material hardship: households experiencing hardship in one domain are often exposed to hardship in others. |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wehdn_v1 |
| By: | Masias, Ian; Htar, May Thet; Oo, Theingi; Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This note presents results from a January–February 2026 phone survey of 325 combine harvester service provider (CHSPs), offering insights into the 2025 monsoon season. Key Findings Acres harvested declined by 11 percent (7 percent in the Dry Zone, 11 percent in the Delta), with 61 percent of CHSPs reporting lower demand, associated with poor rice price incentives in the Delta and movement restrictions in the Dry Zone. Nominal service charges fell by a median of 6 percent, concentrated in the Delta where fuel costs declined, while Dry Zone charges remained flat reflecting limited fuel savings and a restricted operating environment. Most CHSPs (91 percent) extended credit to farmers without interest, and 74 percent provided more financial assistance than the previous year, highlighting their role as an important source of informal credit. Cash flow problems affected 26 percent of CHSPs, driven by declining revenues and rising costs that may be understated in real terms given Myanmar's persistently high inflation, with many coping by borrowing, selling assets, or drawing on other income. Emerging fuel supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict pose a significant risk to the 2026 monsoon season, potentially limiting CHSP operations at a time when farmers may also face fertilizer shortages, threatening agricultural production. Recommended Actions De-risk credit for mechanization services by expanding farmers' access to affordable formal credit or introducing partial guarantee schemes. Improve mobility and security for CHSP operations through greater transparency and reductions of checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads. Support training and retention of machine operators to address shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity. |
| Keywords: | combine harvesters; monsoon climate; wet season; services; development aid; farmers; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:182639 |
| By: | Ingram, Will; Vincent, Katharine; Lalika, Christossy; Barry, Djibril; Gungalund, Vitus Tondelo; Gannon, Kate; Mikolajczak, Katarzyna; Kanyumba, Gloria; Truelove, Julie |
| Abstract: | Attempts to strengthen adaptive capacity and water security across sub-Saharan Africa include widespread use of a local volunteer champion mode of delivery by NGOs and governments. Problems with sustained engagement of volunteer champions exist but have received limited attention. We employ a behavioural lens, rarely applied in this context, to examine factors shaping champion sustained engagement. Qualitative data were gathered from 158 champions across seven active champion-based water security and climate adaptation projects in Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Malawi, South Africa, Mozambique, and Zambia, and analysed using the COM-B behavioural model. The sample showed convergence of behavioural determinants across diverse case studies. Champions’ physical and psychological capability to stay engaged was typically evident, and reflective and automatic motivation was high, driven by prosocial commitment, interest, and satisfaction and reinforced by emotional responses including joy from helping and pride. Conversely, physical and social opportunity are frequently constrained, particularly by inadequate tools, materials, transport, or ongoing support from external project implementers. Contrary to assumptions that low sustained engagement stems from insufficient champion motivation, this instead shows that external support and structural factors are critical to leverage otherwise high motivation. The findings offer practical guidance for organisations seeking to enhance adaptation and water security through champion-based programme design, orienting focus towards reducing structural barriers to support sustained engagement. Such strategies avoid relinquishing responsibility and overburdening champions with unfair motivational appeals, with important climate justice implications. The study demonstrates the value of a behavioural lens for investigating the delivery of community-based adaptation and water security. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation; volunteer; behaviour change; motivation; COM-B; champtions; Tanzania; Malawi; Burkina Faso; Zambia; Mozambique; South Africa |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138704 |
| By: | Eva Forslund; Jaakko Meriläinen; Celine Zipfel |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on how a gender-biased, labor-saving technology-the milking machine-advanced one important dimension of gender equality: women's political representation. Our focus is mid-20th-century Finland, where mechanized milking reduced the time burden of a task traditionally performed by women and facilitated modernization of rural parts of the country. Using historical data, we estimate panel and instrumental-variable models that exploit temporal variation in the spread of milking machines and geographic variation in pre-determined comparative advantage in cattle farming. We find that municipalities with greater adoption of milking machines experienced significantly larger increases in the share of local council seats held by women between 1930 and 1972. These effects operated through time savings for women on dairy farms and rural economic development, against a backdrop of rising female off-farm employment, which together likely helped ease key constraints to women's political representation. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, gender, political representation, technological change, women in politics |
| JEL: | D72 J16 N54 P13 P16 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26145 |
| By: | Jiyuan Lyu |
| Abstract: | Scholarly debates on China's agricultural growth between 1949 and 1986 continue to differ over the extent of the price scissors, the effect of heavy industrial investment, the role of the 1978 reforms, and the impact of decollectivization on irrigation. Using a single dataset and complementary econometric methods, this paper addresses each of these controversies. The results show that 1952--1957 was the only net extraction period across all three channels, after which the state channelled a net inflow of about 168.6 billion yuan into agriculture via fiscal and credit instruments. Heavy industrial investment exerted a significant positive lagged effect on agriculture, while the contemporaneous negative correlation stemmed from the zero-sum nature of the investment share indicator. The input-output elasticity shifted abruptly in 1970, and collective agricultural loans broke in 1971, both pointing to the rectification effects of the North China Agricultural Conference. Disaster prevention capacity fell from 0.70 under the collective era to 0.53 after household contracting, mainly because the collective maintenance system collapsed rather than because state investment declined. After 1979 the price elasticity of agricultural supply approached zero, suggesting that the 1979 procurement price increase acted more like a one-off recalibration than a sustained marginal incentive. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.20286 |
| By: | Sjølie, Hanne K. (University of Inland Norway); Lopez, Lucas; Franklin, Oskar; Kalen, Christer |
| Abstract: | Modern forestry practice with clearcuts and subsequent regeneration of trees provides ample food for deer and is a key driver for maintaining a dense and highly reproductive moose population in the Nordic countries. However, moose browsing causes heavy damage to growth and wood quality of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), economically one of the most important tree species in this region. The consequences of moose browsing on pine for timber production and economics remain poorly quantified. We address this by studying potential impacts of browsing damage on growth, management, timber production and economic returns in a simulation-optimization framework. Browsing damage functions based on forty-year field observations were implemented in an individual-tree growth and yield simulator to project stand development under alternative forest management alternatives. By including economic parameters, we assessed how management would be shifted over the next 200 years to mitigate impacts of browsing over a range of productivity classes, regeneration densities, browsing levels and discount rates. The most pronounced management adaptation was prolonging rotation age up to twenty years. Still, browsing caused timber production to be reduced by up to 1.5 m3 ha-1 yr-1 and up to 25 percent. Land expectation values were likewise heavily impacted, for a discount rate of 2% p.a., browsing turned forest management on medium-productive land unprofitable. The results may guide policymakers and forestry and wildlife practitioners in balancing moose population with timber production and economic objectives. |
| Date: | 2026–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bza2k_v1 |
| By: | Lauriane Benoist; Stéphane Dees; Elise Kremer; Clément Payerols; Oriane Wegner |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of nature-related risks for France through a forward-looking scenario analysis. We first identify and prioritize key nature-related shocks with potential macroeconomic relevance. Using a multi-country semi-structural model, we then design two illustrative scenarios: one focused on water-related shocks - combining chronic scarcity, declining quality, and acute disruptions - and another on agricultural shocks, including domestic yield losses and a multiple breadbasket failure. The simulations suggest that both scenarios generate material impacts on economic activity and inflation in France. Water-related shocks lead to a stagflationary episode marked by a sharp and persistent decline in output and rising prices, while agricultural shocks result in deeper output losses due to global spillovers and food price surges. These findings highlight the macro-economic relevance of nature-related risks and call for further work on their implications for financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Nature-related risks, Ecosystem services, Macro-economic modeling, Scenario analysis |
| JEL: | Q54 E32 C68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1046 |
| By: | Li, Junkan; Nganje, William; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | This report examines long-term trends in farm income, agricultural production, productivity, and research and development (R&D) investment in North Dakota. Although nominal farm receipts have increased substantially, growth in real net receipts has been more modest because rising production costs have absorbed a substantial share of revenue gains, particularly in livestock production. North Dakota also achieved strong long-run total factor productivity (TFP) growth after 1960, consistent with the delayed effects of earlier public agricultural R&D growth. However, productivity growth has slowed in recent decades, and aggregate TFP has stagnated after 2000, likely reflecting slower R&D growth in earlier decades, especially during the 1990s. Despite this slowdown, estimated returns to North Dakota agricultural R&D remain positive and economically meaningful. The preferred specification produces an internal rate of return (IRR) of 28.42 percent and a modified internal rate of return (MIRR) of 10.37 percent. Counterfactual simulations suggest that if real R&D investment had continued to grow at the 2000–2015 rate during 2015–2025, additional agricultural production through 2075 would have been worth $7.47 billion in 2015 dollars. These findings suggest that sustained public agricultural R&D investment can support North Dakota’s long-run productivity growth and production capacity. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Public Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcre:404147 |
| By: | Caroline Paire (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Marianne Schalk (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Olivier Geffroy (PPGV - Physiologie, Pathologie et Génétique Végétales - EI Purpan - Ecole d'Ingénieurs de Purpan - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Foued Cheriet (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Pôle Vigne et Vin - L'Institut Agro - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Keywords: | innovation, étiquette et contre-étiquette, code catégoriel informationnel, Vin issu de variétés résistante, packaging |
| Date: | 2026–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05628794 |
| By: | Sahaj Raj Malla |
| Abstract: | Forecasting agricultural commodity prices in emerging economies is difficult due to high volatility, frequent supply disruptions, and strong cultural influences on demand. This study introduces the Kalimati Vegetable Price Index (KVPI), a new inverse-volatility weighted composite index that aggregates 135 daily wholesale commodities from Kathmandu over ten years (2013-2023). By creating a stable macro-level signal, the KVPI reduces the noise inherent in modelling individual crops. A rich set of 64 causally valid features was developed, including festival lead-lag effects, rolling statistics, and calendar variables. Fourteen forecasting models spanning statistical, tree-based, deep learning, hybrid, and transformer architectures were rigorously evaluated across short (7-day), medium (14- and 30-day), and long-term (90-day) horizons. Tree-based ensembles proved notably robust, while classical statistical models and complex transformers struggled with the noisy dataset. The proposed Momentum-Corrected Online Stacking Ensemble achieved the strongest performance, yielding a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.771, an exceptionally low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.68%, and explaining 84.5% of the variance (R-squared = 0.845) at the 90-day horizon. This open-source pipeline provides policymakers and supply chain actors in Nepal and similar markets with a practical, reliable tool for anticipating price movements and strengthening food security. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.30720 |
| By: | François-Charles Wolff (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, TEPP - Théorie et évaluation des politiques publiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines buyers' preferences for quality in French first-sale fish markets. Using data covering 72 million transactions between 2011 and 2022, we first estimate quality premiums with an exact matching procedure that controls for product availability. We then apply interval regression models to explain differences in buyers' willingness-to-pay for high-quality fish. Results show substantial heterogeneity in quality premiums across both lots and species. Econometric estimates further reveal that quality premiums decline with lot size and vary with buyer characteristics. Retailers and supermarkets pay more for high-quality fish, while wholesalers, processors, and canners are less sensitive to quality. These findings highlight how value from quality is distributed along the supply chain and which types of buyers capture it. |
| Keywords: | Preferences for quality, First-sale fish markets, Buyers, Quality |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05626902 |
| By: | Marta-Costa, Ana; Rodríguez, Xosé A.; Santos, Micael |
| Abstract: | The adoption of a sustainable approach has been recognized as a competitive and resilience factor for the vine and wine sector. This research aimed to address the variables that explain the sustainability of the viticultural systems practiced in the Douro Demarcated Region, in a dimensional and global perspective of sustainability. In total 110 vineyard farms were randomly selected and a matrix of sustainability indicators grouped by economic, environmental and social dimension was used. In order to analyse the main determinants of the different dimensions of sustainability, an econometric analysis was carried out considering different typologies or groups of determinants: efficiency; training system; vineyard landscaping; geographical determinants; destination of the grapes; type of work used; other determinants. Based on the estimations of eight models, an important divergence in the results was found, especially between the estimates of the models developed through the global sustainability index than the estimates of the indices disaggregated by dimension. This disparity in results indicates that the analysis of the determinants of sustainability should be carried out in a disaggregated manner (at the level of sustainability dimensions). Divergent results were also deduced depending on the dimension of sustainability. For instance, the model with the highest explanatory power concerned the economic dimension, while the efficiency determinant was not significant in the social and environmental dimensions. In light of these findings, policy measures are proposed. |
| Keywords: | Viticultural; Sustainability; Econometric Anlysis |
| JEL: | D0 D00 Q1 Q12 |
| Date: | 2024–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128911 |
| By: | Mogge, Lukas; Roeckert, Julian; Krähnert, Kati |
| Abstract: | Recent impact evaluation shows that anticipatory humanitarian action based on meteorological forecasts helps vulnerable rural households cope with weather disasters. As climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, humanitarian needs are rising. Anticipatory humanitarian action uses risk forecasts to provide assistance before disasters fully unfold. RWI researchers examined the impact of such anticipatory action in Mongolia, where extreme winter conditions lead to high livestock mortality and threaten the livelihoods of affected households. The study shows that poorer households benefit from the transfers in terms of livestock assets and food consumption. It also highlights the challenges of rigorously evaluating anticipatory action. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwiimp:341183 |
| By: | Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hirvonen, Kalle; Leight, Jessica; Mesfin, Hiwot; Mulford, Michael; Tesfaye, Haleluya |
| Abstract: | This brief reports on a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial of 3, 015 households evaluating the effectiveness of SPIR II, a nutrition-sensitive graduation model implemented in Ethiopia. The full treatment package—combining nutrition-focused behavior change communication (BCC), village economics and savings associations, monthly maternal cash transfers of US$20, and a one-time livelihood grant of US$300—generates large, sustained improvements in child diet quality, household consumption, livestock holdings, and formal savings. A substantial reduction in childhood stunting (7 percentage points) is observed in the same sub-arm; BCC alone improves caregiver nutrition knowledge but does not lead to improved child feeding or growth. The benefit-cost ratio is nearly two, suggesting the program more than pays for itself. |
| Keywords: | impact; nutrition; child nutrition; modelling; randomized controlled trials; benefit-cost ratio; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:182850 |
| By: | Minten, Bart; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Monoi, Belinda; Schmidt, Emily; Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the fresh produce market in Papua New Guinea (PNG) using unique market flow and price data collected by the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) over the past 15 years across multiple markets. We document substantial flows of fresh produce from diverse production zones to major urban centers, with Port Moresby emerging as the primary terminal market. Hard fresh produce and sweet potato supplied there largely originate from the Highlands, while other staples and soft fresh produce are mostly sourced from other regions. Price analysis reveals four key patterns: (i) fresh produce prices have risen significantly relative to non-food products, particularly for items less supplied by the Highlands; (ii) prices exhibit strong seasonality—lowest at year-end and highest mid-year (June–August)—reflecting major cultivation periods and possibly seasonality in household labor availability; (iii) marketing margins have increased substantially, especially for soft fresh produce, creating new opportunities for Highland producers to compete in Port Moresby markets; and (iv) in 2023–2025, marketing and wastage costs accounted for the largest share of retail prices in Port Moresby—up to 85 percent for cabbage—while producer shares ranged from 15 percent for cabbage to 61 percent for Irish potatoes. These findings underscore evolving market dynamics and the critical role of supply chain efficiency in PNG’s fresh produce sector. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; markets; prices; fresh products; seasonality; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:182349 |
| By: | Caroline Paire (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Karine Pedneault (UQO - Université du Québec en Outaouais); Paméla Nicolle (UQO - Université du Québec en Outaouais) |
| Abstract: | Perception des vins issus de variétés hybrides par les acteurs de la filièreQuébécoise |
| Keywords: | Québec, Vin, Perception des consommateurs, Variété hybride |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05628775 |
| By: | Frédéric Docquier (LISER, Luxembourg); Alice Dominici (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca; Bocconi University (INSPIRE)); Martín Fernández (LISER, Luxembourg); Fabio Mariani (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a historical quasi-natural experiment to provide causal evidence on how networks and diversity affect migrant economic outcomes in a rural setting. Between 1932 and 1941, the Italian government relocated about 4, 000 families to the Pontine Marshes, a previously uninhabitable area undergoing a massive reclamation project. The settlers came from different provinces of Italy and were quasi-randomly assigned to plots of land, generating exogenous variation in neighborhood composition. Using comprehensive data on the universe of settlers, we find that larger networks of common-origin neighbors significantly increased the likelihood of long-term settlement and land purchase. This effect operated, at least partially, through an increase in productivity, resulting from higher cooperation and solidarity among network members. Symmetrically, by reducing the scope of network externalities, greater neighborhood diversity hindered economic performance, except for isolated settlers who benefited from a fragmented environment. We also document the crucial role of shared experiences and geographical proximity in strengthening networks. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Networks; Diversity; Productivity; Agriculture |
| JEL: | D85 J24 J61 N54 O13 O15 O40 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026010 |
| By: | Peter Huybers; Marco Tabellini; Charles A. Taylor; Francesco Toti |
| Abstract: | What factors drove human migration before modern states, markets, and borders? We develop a framework of ecological sorting in which climate-specific subsistence knowledge depreciates with ecological distance. To test this, we use ancient DNA identity-by-descent segments to construct bilateral migration flows across Western Eurasia over the last 10, 000 years. We document four main findings. First, migration flows decline with differences in growing degree days, precipitation, and soil characteristics between origins and destinations. Second, the dimensions of climate that bind vary across subsistence systems: farmers exhibit strong thermal and soil matching, while pastoralists match most strongly on precipitation-consistent with differential ecological constraints and limiting factors. Third, periods of warming increase farmer expansion while cooling increases pastoral expansion in patterns that recover known archaeological migration episodes. Migration also acts as a margin of climate adaptation: populations exposed to temperature change move to destinations that partly offset the shift. Fourth, genetic flow predicts subsequent convergence in destination vegetation toward migrants' ecological profiles, consistent with migration shaping landscape change and the demic diffusion of subsistence practices. |
| Keywords: | migration, ancient DNA, prehistory, climate, ecology |
| JEL: | N50 O13 Q54 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26144 |
| By: | Javed, Harris; Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | The rising worldwide concerns about climate change, environmental degradation, and sustainability issues have made environmental reporting more vital for corporate reporting systems. The study investigates how firm size and profitability, and corporate governance practices, impact the sustainability accounting and environmental reporting of listed companies. Panel data has been collected from 40 listed PSX companies from 2018 to 2025. The study applies panel regression to estimate the impact of independent variables on the dependent variable. The results show that organizational size hurts environmental reporting, because organizational size does not significantly determine sustainability disclosure practices. Environmental reporting shows a positive relationship with profitability, which remains statistically unproven because financial performance does not account for all differences in environmental disclosure. Environmental reporting shows a positive relationship with corporate governance, which holds statistical significance because governance structures play a vital role in promoting transparency and accountability, as well as sustainability disclosure. The study found that corporate governance stands as the primary element that determines environmental reporting for all companies in the selected sample. The findings show that strong governance mechanisms serve as a foundation that enables organizations to achieve higher levels of environmental transparency while maintaining their corporate accountability standards. The study expands the existing literature on sustainability accounting by delivering empirical results that explain the factors that determine environmental reporting while giving policymakers, regulators, and corporate executives valuable information about how to enhance sustainability disclosure practices. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Reporting, Corporate Governance, Sustainability Accounting, Firm Performance |
| JEL: | M14 M41 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129204 |
| By: | Mikołaj Czajkowski (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Wojciech Zawadzki (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Katarzyna Skrzypek (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Wiktor Budziński (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Milan Scasny (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; Charles University, The Environment Center) |
| Abstract: | Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3, 312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2, 588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1, 507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management. |
| Keywords: | Bathing water quality, Pathogens, Microbial contamination, Risk communication, Information treatments, Discrete choice experiment (DCE), Travel cost method (TCM), Recreation demand, Welfare measurement, Consumer surplus, Climate adaptation, Coastal health risks, Baltic Sea, Poland |
| JEL: | C93 C35 Q26 Q51 Q53 D91 I18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-22 |
| By: | Muhammad, Andrew; Menard, R. Jamey; Taylor, Adam |
| Abstract: | This report examines the economic impact of Tennessee’s forest product exports, and analyzes export changes in 2024, while considering destination countries (e.g., China, European Union) and product categories (e.g., oak lumber, hardwood logs, barrels). Additionally, it evaluates the overall economic impact of export sales on income and employment at the state level. In brief, here are the main highlights from 2024. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:utaeer:404148 |
| By: | Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Figures on: Cereals and Flour, Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas, Vegetables, Meat and Animal Products, Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans, Seeds, Fertilizers, Diesel and Petrol, Exchange Rates, Labor wages, and Market Actors’ Perceptions, |
| Keywords: | capacity building; commodities; prices; markets; price stabilization; economic stabilization; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:182133 |