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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Alphonce, Roselyne |
| Abstract: | Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation. Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050. Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages. Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy. Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders. In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework. In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population: • A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods, • Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains, • A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and • A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production. |
| Keywords: | food systems; urbanization; consumers; food supply; Tanzania; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshdn:178094 |
| By: | Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Aung, Zin Wai; Goeb, Joseph |
| Abstract: | Climate change and conflict are increasingly shaping livelihoods in Myanmar, with agricultural households among the most directly affected. Yet, empirical evidence on how these stressors affect farmers’ adaptation strategies and agricultural assets remains limited. We draw on unique largescale primary surveys: Over a three-year period, we conducted bi-annual surveys with nearly 5, 000 farmers, collecting data on exposure to conflict, natural risks, climate change perceptions, agricultural adaptation, and agricultural land valuation. |
| Keywords: | climate change; risk; conflicts; climate-smart agriculture; agriculture; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:178197 |
| By: | Jovanovic, Nina; Darwish, Maram; Kurdi, Sikandra; Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | Groundwater irrigation supports agricultural production and local food security in arid regions, however costs and accessibility of fuel for pumping are a challenge in conflict-affected contexts. Solar-powered drip irrigation technology can support smallholder farmers in such settings. In this study we estimated the impacts of subsidized solar-powered drip irrigation systems on smallholder farmers’ production decisions and household food security via a clustered randomized control trial in eastern Yemen. We found that farmers in the treatment group were significantly less likely to cultivate cereals, more likely to cultivate horticultural crops, and more likely to sell a higher share of their harvests at market during the first season post‑intervention. These results provide causal evidence on the impact of solar drip irrigation systems on shifting smallholder farmers’ crop production toward higher-value crops. We did not find significant impacts on household food security within the short-term post-intervention period that the analysis covered. These findings also provide preliminary support for investments in solar and drip irrigation technology in Yemen, while acknowledging that more research is needed to address potential negative externalities. |
| Keywords: | impact assessment; irrigation; solar powered irrigation systems; trickle irrigation; groundwater irrigation; smallholders; irrigation systems; Yemen; Middle East |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:179397 |
| By: | Hashad, Reem; Jovanovic, Nina; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | Global food price increases and widespread inflationary shocks negatively affect poor households’ diets, particularly those of women who are more likely to be food insecure compared to men. This study evaluates the relationship between changes in food prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and poor mothers’ diets in Egypt, a country that heavily relies on imports of staple foods and is highly vulnerable to increases in international food prices. We combine food group specific governorate-level consumer price index (CPI) data with data on diets of 2, 868 poor mothers in Egypt collected before and after the onset of the war. Additionally, we examine the potential protective effect of Egypt’s large-scale food subsidy program, Tamween, whereby specific foods are sold at subsidized prices at specific retailers. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find that changes in food prices are significantly associated with changes in the composition of mothers’ diets. Mothers were less likely to consume dairy and fish and more likely to consume pulses and sweetened beverages after the war began. Poor mothers decreased consumption of unsubsidized foods, suggesting a protective role of the Egyptian food subsidy program. This paper also provides suggestive evidence that poor mothers from households engaged in agricultural production could be slightly less responsive to changes in food prices compared to mothers from households that do not engage in agricultural production. |
| Keywords: | inflation; diet; gender; poverty; mothers; dietary diversity; price volatility; Egypt; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:179553 |
| By: | Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K. |
| Abstract: | This report presents evidence from the Sudan Rural Household Survey of 2023 and 2024, a two-wave panel survey that assesses how rural households are navigating prolonged conflict. By tracking the same households over time, the survey provides longitudinal insights into livelihoods, food security, access to markets and productive resources, and exposure to shocks across an insecure and rapidly evolving context. The findings from the survey data analysis point to an uneven pattern of economic adjustment by households rather than sustained recovery. Rural households are actively adapting through changes in livelihood strategies, income diversification, and increased participation of household members in income-generating activities. Compared to 2023, fewer households reported in 2024 having no employment. Engagement in salaried work and agriculture also rose. Despite these shifts, income losses remain widespread. Only a small share of households reported improved earnings in 2024, indicating that adaptation is largely driven by necessity rather than durable recovery. Food consumption outcomes improved markedly between survey waves, with substantial declines in the share of households in 2024 reporting poor or borderline diets. At the same time, experience-based measures show that food insecurity remains pervasive, with more than half of rural households facing moderate or severe food insecurity. There has been little change in the prevalence of severe food insecurity. The continuing food insecurity challenges underscore the fragility of recent gains and the continued vulnerability of many households. |
| Keywords: | food security; conflicts; livelihoods; households; surveys; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:179368 |
| By: | Alban Thomas (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | This chapter presents an analysis of the potential contribution of urban (UA) and peri-urban (PUA) agricultural systems to food and nutritional security in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. In the light of the limited data and scientific evidence regarding PU and PUA in these countries, we provide additional evidence regarding the structure of UA and PUA that may be in favour of food and nutritional security in the MENA region. We use three different sources of information: a foresight study on future food systems in the MENA region in 2050, a brief literature review on UA and PUA systems, and an empirical analysis based on global data for MENA countries. We find evidence that the proportion of agriculture in peri-urban areas contributes positively to the city's capacity to feed its population, but we do not see any size effect of peri-urban area (or its density), indicating that it may be more an intensive margin impact at play. We also find a positive and significant correlation between the share of PUA in total peri-urban area and available food per head, as well as (although less significant) with food diversity. We also find a higher elasticity of animal-sourced protein contents of diet to GDP per capita in MENA countries on average, compared with protein contents and available food per head, reflecting larger income elasticity for animal products on average. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Food security, MENA, Peri-Urban |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05529852 |
| By: | Minten, Bart; Ei Win, Hnin |
| Abstract: | Prices of major crops declined substantially in the 2025 dry season compared to the previous year. Paddy prices fell by 15 percent, and most major non-paddy crop prices also decreased. The only major exception was green gram. With yields also declining nationwide, many farmers reported lower sales income: only 28 percent indicated that their sales income had increased, while a quarter reported declines of more than 20 percent. While output prices mostly fell, input prices continued to rise in the 2025 dry season compared to 2024. Urea prices increased by 18 percent. Mechanized plowing costs rose by 29 percent (for 4-wheel tractors), while hired labor costs surged by 47 percent for men and 43 percent for women. These sharp wage increases may partly reflect the introduction of the Military Service Law. Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2025 dry season, reflecting the resilience of the private sector in delivering these products. Fewer farmers reported shortages of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds compared to last year. Use of agricultural credit declined during the 2025 dry season, falling from 45 percent in 2022 to 31 percent in 2025—a decrease of 14 percentage points. Agricultural extension services have rebounded. After falling by 5 percentage points from 39 percent in 2022 to 34 percent in 2024, usage rose again to 38 percent in the 2025 dry season. This recovery was driven by private extension services, and use of digital agricultural extension services also increased. Security challenges continue to hinder crop commercialization in Myanmar. Conditions vary across states and regions, with the Delta—the country’s rice bowl—experiencing relatively better security. Farmers in conflict-affected areas face greater obstacles to commercialization, including reduced availability of agricultural inputs. |
| Keywords: | farms; commercialization; services; farm inputs; agricultural prices; agricultural marketing; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:179100 |
| By: | Hareau, G.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Andrade, Robert; Petsakos, Athanasios; Sulser, Timothy B.; Chamberlin, Jordan; Sonder, Kai; Kihiu, Evelyne; Suarez, V.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Thomas, Timothy S.; Alene, Arega D.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Mjuma, Andrea; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Petnkeu, Jeronya Mbiatat; Antonio, Ronald Jeremy S.; Cabrera, Ellanie; Basnet, Shyam; Gimutao, Maureen; Pede, Velerien; Chan, Chin Yee; Chung, Ka Yi Karen; Sari, Evren Can |
| Abstract: | Changes in yields of food commodities are key drivers—and consequences—of changes in agriculture and food systems. Simulation models used to explore the future of agriculture require initial assumptions about baseline levels and changes in yields as a starting point and then can be used to analyze how those yields are affected by the dynamic interaction between changes in demand, markets, technology, climate and other factors. This paper reports on how critical initial yield assumptions have recently been reviewed and updated in the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This paper is aimed at a technical audience interested in core details of the IMPACT modeling framework and is a follow-up to the latest full model documentation (Robinson et al 2024). IMPACT was developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policymakers and researchers about the actions necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Over time, this economic model has been expanded and improved, and IMPACT is now a system of linked models around a core multimarket economic model of global production, trade, demand, and prices for agricultural commodities. IMPACT supports integrated analysis of the implications of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends and phenomena, allowing for varied and in-depth analysis on a variety of key issues of interest to policymakers. As a flexible policy analysis tool, IMPACT has been used to research linkages between agricultural production and food security at the national and regional levels. IMPACT also has been used in commodity-level scenario analyses and has contributed to thematic and interdisciplinary scenario-based projects. IMPACT is one of major global models of the agriculture sector, but because of its high level of commodity and geographic disaggregation, it plays a particularly important role in analyzing patterns of agricultural productivity growth around the world. Potential commodity yields are key drivers in the IMPACT baseline scenario and an important lever influenced by investment and policy scenarios. The baseline assumptions about exogenous growth in crop and livestock yields are referred to in IMPACT as “intrinsic productivity growth rates” (IPRs). This paper describes the approach developed to review and update the IPRs to reflect recent trends and incorporate expert1 opinion, making the yield projections more transparent, inclusive, and efficient, and more consistent across CGIAR centers, improving projections and enhancing policy relevance. The remaining sections include a description of the IMPACT Model, the methods for updating the IPRs using projections based on FAOSTAT data and expert consultations, the findings related to the IPRs from each of the expert consultations, and a description of the process used to incorporate the findings from the consultations into IMPACT and concludes with discussion. A description of the Power BI tool used to support the expert consultations is presented in Appendix A. |
| Keywords: | modelling; yields; growth rate; agriculture; productivity; crop yield |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:178821 |
| By: | Kamar, Abul; Kumar Padhee, Arabinda; Pradhan, Mamata; Roy, Devesh |
| Abstract: | Odisha’s agricultural exports are rising steadily, yet they remain highly concentrated in a few products and districts. Shrimp continues to dominate, while cotton and rice are gradually emerging as important contributors. Notably, the share of agriculture in Odisha’s total merchandise exports has nearly doubled from 4% in 2021–22 to 7% in 2024–25, . |
| Keywords: | trade; exports; shrimp fisheries; cotton; rice; agricultural trade; India; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:178931 |
| By: | Cole, Steve; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Heckert, Jessica; Hidrobo, Melissa; Mwakanyamale, Devis; Nwagboso, Chibuzo |
| Abstract: | Transforming gender norms improves women’s wellbeing and may help close the agricultural productivity gap, yet evidence on pairing them with agriculture interventions is limited. We will test an innovative approach to developing and delivering gender transformative interventions with cassava producers in Tanzania. Using a cluster-randomized controlled trial, we examine the impact of these gender transformative interventions paired with standard agricultural service, compared to agricultural services alone, on the primary (gender norms, decision making, and women’s leadership) and secondary (agricultural productivity, women’s savings, and women’s access to land) outcomes. Qualitative methods will examine changes in intra-couple dynamics (communication, decision making, and division of labor). |
| Keywords: | gender; policies; impact assessment; women; cluster randomized trials; qualitative analysis; Tanzania; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:179364 |
| By: | Sonia Quiroga (UCM - Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid]); Cristina Suárez (UAH - Universidad de Alcalá [Alcalá de Henares, España] = University of Alcalá [Alcalá de Henares, Spain] = Université d'Alcalá [Alcalá de Henares, Espagne]); Juan Diego Solís; Pablo Martínez-Juárez (UAH - Universidad de Alcalá [Alcalá de Henares, España] = University of Alcalá [Alcalá de Henares, Spain] = Université d'Alcalá [Alcalá de Henares, Espagne]); Juan Fernández-Manjarrés (ESE - Ecologie, Société et Evolution (ex-Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution) - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Climate change will have a permanent impact on the Mesoamerican agricultural sector. Current crops, such as shade coffee that is grown in middle-elevation areas, are already showing signs of climatic stress and may not secure agricultural subsistence. Therefore, the first stages of crop diversification are being observed in countries such as Nicaragua, where the migration of new crops like non-shade cocoa may lead to a reorganisation of ecological and social structure. Diversification is an already undergoing process whose underlying motivations and decision-making are not yet fully understood. This study analyses subjacent motivations and contexts that lead to the potential incorporation of cocoa crops in presentday Nicaraguan coffee farms. To achieve that, three main motivations were identified: climatic, economic, and governmental. An econometric analysis was performed over the variables that affect farmers' motivations and decisions to analyse first this decision-making process and, second to understand how social and climatic evolution over the next decades will impact the context under which agricultural output is shaped. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04963268 |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Reardon, Thomas; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet |
| Abstract: | With the intensification and modernization of agriculture in Myanmar, farmers are increasingly dependent on purchased agro-inputs—such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—to enhance productivity. These inputs are typically acquired from small and medium-sized agro-input retailers. Despite their growing significance in agrifood value chains, limited research has examined the roles these retailers play. Drawing on large-scale, nationwide surveys of farmers and agro-input retailers in Myanmar, we explore their operations and implications in this context. Key findings include: 1. There is widespread and increased use of agro-chemicals in Myanmar. Among dry season crop farmers, pesticides were the most commonly purchased input, reported by 73 percent of respondents, closely followed by fertilizers at 72 percent. While fertilizer usage has remained relatively stable compared to nearly a decade ago (75 percent in 2016), pesticide use has increased significantly—rising by 13 percentage points since 2016. 2. The expansion of pesticide use is reflected in official data. In 2017, just over 500 pesticide products were registered; by 2024, this number had increased eightfold. Similarly, pesticide imports in 2023 were five times higher than in 2013. 3. Many agro-input retailers provide complementary services beyond product sales, offering services such as credit, agricultural extension advice, mechanization facilitation, transportation, crop buying, and emergency loans. These complementary services integrate them more deeply into agricultural value chains. 4. Only 12 percent of retailers provided none of the aforementioned complementary services, while 16 percent offered four or more. Competition is a driver of service provision—retailers located near competitors are more likely to offer extension and credit services. 5. Retailers in insecure areas are equally engaged in delivering complementary services as those in more secure regions. 6. Agro-input retailers are a vital source of credit, with nearly half of the farmers purchasing inputs on credit—typically at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent. Larger farmers are more likely than smaller ones to access credit through retailers. 7. Nearly half of the farmers reported receiving agricultural extension advice from their main retailer. This advice often pertains to retailer-sold products but can also address broader agronomic issues. Larger farmers are more likely to use these services than smaller ones. Given the limited availability of public extension services in Myanmar, agro-input retailers are an important, yet often overlooked, source of agricultural knowledge. 8. Despite their advisory role, farmers generally trust retailers’ advice less than other sources. Trust in agro-input retailers ranks below that in other farmers, public, and private extension agents, and only above trust in mills. Notably, medium and large farmers exhibit higher relative trust in retailers compared to smaller farmers. 9. Policy Implications: • The rapid increase in pesticide use by farmers in the country raises a number of health, safety, and environmental concerns, especially in a situation where oversight is limited given insecurity and travel concerns. • The decline in public agricultural service delivery, such as extension and credit, in the country also underscores the need for increased attention from stakeholders focused on agricultural productivity and equity. • While agro-input retailers play crucial, multifaceted roles, their services are not universally accessible. Over-reliance on private providers may risk marginalizing smaller farmers from critical services like credit. • The dependence on retailers for extension advice raises concerns about accessibility and credibility. Low trust in retailer-provided information may hinder behavior change and contribute to product misuse, especially regarding inputs with health and environmental risks like pesticides. • Further research is needed to understand the nature and impact of the advice given by private retailers. Complementary policy efforts—such as training, certification programs, and trust-building initiatives—may help enhance service quality and farmer confidence. |
| Keywords: | agricultural value chains; farm inputs; Myanmar; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:176165 |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Cecchi, Francesco; Levine, Madison; Waithaka, Lilian |
| Abstract: | Insurance has great potential to increase productive investments, but agricultural insurance markets remain thin, in part because asymmetric information limits the viability of indemnity-based contracts. This paper evaluates a digital innovation—picture-based insurance (PBI)—that uses smartphone images of insured crops to indemnify crop damage. Through a cluster randomized trial in seven counties in Kenya, we compare subsidized PBI to subsidized weather index-based insurance (WBI) and to a control group offered unsubsidized WBI. We find that moving from index-based to indemnity-based insurance substantially increases take-up, particularly among women and farmers in drought-prone areas, indicating that innovations in contract design can broaden coverage in inclusive ways. Insurance coverage significantly increases fertilizer use in both treatments, confirming that uninsured risk constrains agricultural investment. However, despite higher take-up, PBI increases total fertilizer use as much as WBI. Using a Heckman selection model to correct for endogenous adoption, we show that this is not only due to incentive effects but also to multidimensional selection: PBI attracts farmers who, in the absence of insurance, would have invested less in fertilizer. After adjusting for this compositional change, differences in fertilizer use per farmer enrolled in WBI and PBI are not statistically significant. We conclude that higher take-up rates of digital indemnity-based insurance may not automatically translate into proportionally larger farm investments, but since increased coverage is concentrated among the relatively more vulnerable, it may contribute to complementary objectives such as inclusivity, equity, and resilience. Contract design and targeting, therefore, remain central to effective insurance product development. |
| Keywords: | digital innovation; crop insurance; agricultural insurance; insurance; technology adoption; risk; information; Kenya; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:179846 |
| By: | Mahzab, Moogdho; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Mattsson, Martin; Anowar, Md Sadat |
| Abstract: | Agriculture remains central to Bangladesh’s economy and food security, yet it is increasingly threatened by the rapid expansion of informal brick manufacturing that extracts fertile topsoil from cropland and generates heavy local pollution. This paper provides national-scale causal evidence on how brick kiln expansion affects vegetation health and agricultural productivity by combining long-run satellite observations with geolocated kiln data. We construct a spatiotemporal panel of unions and municipalities using annual the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) from 2002–2024 and a high-resolution inventory of 9, 187 brick kilns detected through satellite imagery and machine learning. Using a continuous and staggered difference-in-differences design, we find no evidence of differential pre-trends, but we do find a clear and persistent deterioration in vegetation health following kiln establishment. The magnitude is economically meaningful: a marginal increase in kiln presence is associated with roughly a 1 percent annual decline in local vegetation productivity, with effects that persist and accumulate over time. These results are consistent with long-run soil degradation and chronic environmental exposure around kiln sites, and they imply substantial hidden costs of informal industrial growth in densely cultivated landscapes. The findings highlight the urgency of stronger enforcement of siting rules, of incentives for cleaner production technologies, and of land-use planning that protects high-productivity agricultural zones. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity; food security; plant health; remote sensing; drying kilns; Bangladesh; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180697 |
| By: | Tauseef, Salauddin; Linn, Khin Mar; Oo, Theingi; van Asselt, Joanna |
| Abstract: | Persistent Hunger: Extreme hunger continued to affect nearly 3.5 percent of households in late 2025. Poor Adult Diet Quality: Over a quarter of adults (27.1 percent) lack adequate dietary diversity. Women’s diet quality has worsened faster than men’s over the past three years. Deteriorating diets of young children: Over 36.5 percent of 6-23 months and 24.3 percent of 6-59 months old children are without an adequately diverse diet, significantly higher than in previous years. Multiple Factors Affecting Risk & Resilience: Low assets, conflict, and high food prices drive insecurity; remittances reduce food-related risks. This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using nine rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to October 2025. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2025. Nearly 3.5 percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in July-October 2025, with low asset households disproportionately affected. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 16.2 percent in July-October 2025. Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 27.1 percent between December 2021-February 2022 and July-October 2025. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality during this time (8.7 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.9 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food. In the latest round of survey, children with poor diet quality increased compared to previous rounds – currently in 2025, 36.5 percent of 6-23 months and 24.3 percent of 6-59 months children are without an adequately diverse diet compared to 30.7 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively, in 2024. Similarly, 42.9 percent of children aged 6-23 months in Myanmar do not meet the Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD), a composite indicator of meal frequency and dietary diversity, indicating widespread inadequacy in infant and young child feeding. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity also increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender-sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups, is needed. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition; hunger; households; dietary diversity; food consumption statistics; regression analysis; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:182086 |
| By: | Tauseef, Salauddin; Linn, Khin Mar; Oo, Theingi |
| Abstract: | This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using eight rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to December 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2024. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-December 2024. Hunger was highest in Kachin (6.5 percent), followed by Kayah (6.3 percent) and Chin (6.0 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 14.2 percent in October-December 2024. The shares in October-December 2024 were highest in Chin (34.6 percent), Kayah (25.4 percent), and Shan (19.3 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 26.0 percent between December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality (7.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.2 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food and vegetables. In the latest round of the survey, 30.7 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 21.3 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality. Of note during October-December 2024, urban households faced greater food insecurity than rural households, with higher hunger rates (3.5 percent vs. 2.8 percent), and lower dietary diversity among both adults (26.0 percent vs. 25.0 percent) and children aged 6–59 months (23.2 percent vs. 20.4 percent). Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gendersensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition; diet quality; income; conflicts; food prices; remittances; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:175339 |
| By: | Ranjana Roy (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Raya Das; Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | This policy brief looks at the level and composition of agri-households' incomes, and analyses the factors that can augment their incomes. Regression results of SAS unit level data shows that farmers with livestock have 86.2 percent higher incomes than those without any livestock. Further, evidence suggests that farmers who allocate a greater share of their gross cropped area (GCA) to horticulture crops experience significantly higher incomes than those with minimal diversification. Farmers with less than 6 percent of their land under horticulture, the national average, serve as the baseline. In comparison to that, those who have higher area under horticulture (6–23 percent of GCA) earn approximately 25 percent higher incomes. Income gains continue to rise with greater diversification towards horticulture: farmers with 23-40 percent of their area under horticulture earn 44 percent more, while those exceeding 40 per cent report an average income increase of 56 percent compared to the baseline. This upward trend highlights how diversifying into high-value horticulture crops can substantially boost farm incomes. |
| Keywords: | Farmers income, crop diversification; High Value Crops, Livestock Farming, Fishery, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:60 |
| By: | Yann Desjeux (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); K Hervé Dakpo (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Laure Latruffe (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The wine sector faces the dual challenge of profitability while meeting societal expectations for more sustainable production, in a changing climatic and economic environment. In this frame, the authors propose to provide here a picture of the French wine sector over the last two decades. Using data from the French Farm Accounting Data Network (Réseau d'information comptable agricole-RICA), we study the evolution of winegrowing farms in metropolitan France in terms of structure and performance over the period 2002-2021. Figures show that winegrowing farms have expanded and have experienced a decrease in yield and economic performance per hectare, but an increase in economic performance when calculated per annual working unit. Winegrowing farms have substantially reduced their crop protection costs but have increased the cost of contracting work. |
| Abstract: | Le secteur viticole doit composer avec le double défi de rentabilité tout en répondant aux attentes sociétales d'une production plus durable, dans un environnement climatique et économique changeant. Dans ce cadre, les auteurs proposent ici de fournir une image du secteur viticole français sur les deux dernières décennies. Grâce aux données du Réseau d'information comptable agricole (RICA), ils analysent l'évolution des exploitations viticoles en France métropolitaine en termes de structure et de performance sur la période 2002-2021. Les chiffres montrent que les exploitations viticoles se sont agrandies et ont subi une baisse de rendement et de performance économique ramenée à l'hectare, mais une augmentation de la performance économique par unité de travail annuel. Les exploitations viticoles ont fortement diminué leurs charges dédiées à la protection des cultures mais ont augmenté celles liées aux travaux par tiers. |
| Keywords: | FADN, Performance, Evolution, Winegrowing farms, France, RICA, Exploitations viticoles |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05532322 |
| By: | Ritika Juneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Biswabara Sahu; Ashok Gulati; Sachchida Nand |
| Abstract: | Restoring soil health is therefore central to improving both crop health and human nutrition. This policy brief calls for a paradigm shift anchored in 3 P's-Policy, Products, and Practices. The policy switch towards rational pricing of fertilisers and targeted support to farmers can catalyse the development and adoption of precise, customised, and site-specific fertilisation solutions, underpinned by rigorous R&D, soil diagnostics, and crop-specific nutrient requirements. These products, when complemented by appropriate agronomic practices can restore soil biological, chemical, and physical health. Only when soils are adequately nourished can they consistently produce food that sustains health rather than merely alleviates hunger. Ensuring healthy soils is therefore not just an agricultural priority, but a public health imperative critical to India's long-term development. |
| Keywords: | Soil Health, Crop Health, Human Nutrition, Deficiency, Policy, Product, Practice, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:63 |
| By: | Fuller, Kate Binzen; Hellerstein, Daniel; Rosenberg, Andrew; Subedi, Dipak; Feather, Catherine; Iovanna, Rich; Pratt, Bryan; Claassen, Roger |
| Abstract: | USDAʼs conservation programs provide incentives to agricultural producers to improve soil health, wildlife habitat, and water and air quality, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Over time, conservation funding authorized by Farm Bills has changed both in aggregate and in the relative shares of funded programs. In fiscal year 2024, estimated USDA conservation funding authorized by Farm Bills stood at $5.7 billion, with three programs (the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP), and the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)) accounting for approximately 90 percent of funding. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provided more than $19 billion in supplemental conservation program funding to be spent from 2023–31, on EQIP, CSP, as well as the Agricultural Conservation Easements Program (ACEP), and the Regional Conservation Partnership Program (RCPP). This report provides a summary of USDA conservation programs and their funding, with a focus on conservation programs in the 2002−18 Farm Bills. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:396260 |
| By: | Dabalen, Andrew L.; Fuglie, Keith; Goyal, Aparajita |
| Abstract: | This paper examines agriculture growth performance in 20 countries in West and Central Africa over 2001–23. Most countries in the region continued to depend on land expansion to raise agricultural output. However, two countries in West Africa, Ghana and Senegal, stand apart. Over these two decades, Ghana and Senegal achieved rapid improvements in yields for a wide range of crops and agro-ecological zones. Agricultural labor productivity and total factor productivity also grew at rates comparable to those of the rest of the world. The paper investigates policy choices that may have contributed to accelerating and sustaining productivity growth. Compared to other countries in the region, Ghana and Senegal deepened rural infrastructure, invested significantly more in agricultural research, extension, and development, and expanded access to financial services. These factors helped achieve wider adoption of improved inputs and technologies and stimulate new economic activity along commodity value chains. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11323 |
| By: | Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Harsh Wardhan; Sulakshana Rao; Raya Das |
| Abstract: | This policy brief assesses the scope of increasing Indian exports to Russia, focusing on select sectors, hard-hit by Trump's tariffs. In T&A, India faces a significant disadvantage due to 13-14 per cent tariffs, compared to zero-duty for Vietnam. In fisheries, although India’s seafood exports total USD 7.4 billion (2024-25), exports to Russia remain limited at USD 138 million, confined to frozen shrimp. Given Russia's USD 2.12 billion import, significant untapped potential exists in mackerel, trout and other value-added products. In case of agriculture, high-value segments, including processed fruits and vegetables and animal products such as bovine meat create clear openings. Yet high tariffs, SPS barriers, certification delays and logistics costs persist. |
| Keywords: | India-Russia Bilateral trade, agriculture, shrimps, textiles, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:57 |
| By: | Susan Athey; Shawn Cole; Shanjukta Nath; Jessica Zhu |
| Abstract: | We conduct a series of iterative experiments to evaluate approaches for optimally targeting calls for an agricultural advisory service serving over one million farmers in rural India. We estimate the value of alternative targeted policies using “off-policy” evaluation on data from randomized call assignments. When we evaluate off-policy using held-out data from the same time periods used to design the targeted policies, we find that targeted policies increase engagement by up to 8%. However, when we design a policy using current data and then implement the policy for randomly selected users in subsequent weeks, our “on-policy” evaluation estimates show realized gains that are substantially smaller. We develop tools to diagnose the causes of this underperformance and adopt a transfer-learning approach to policy learning and off-policy evaluation that accounts for temporal changes in farmer behavior, substantially improving off-policy estimates of performance in subsequent weeks. We further develop novel approaches to targeted policy design that respond to organizational objectives and resource constraints, including distributional goals (e.g., reaching women farmers) and prioritizing farmers likely to benefit most from the information on downstream outcomes (e.g., yields). We propose a method for organizations to quantify trade-offs between objectives, and we demonstrate the value of targeting for alleviating these trade-offs. |
| JEL: | C93 O13 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34951 |
| By: | Bin Khaled, Muhammad Nahian; Maredia, Mywish K.; Narayanan, Sudha; Belton, Ben; Kabir, Razin |
| Abstract: | Price discounts are a common policy tool to promote agricultural technology adoption in low-income settings, yet their effectiveness may be limited when farmers face uncertainty or have access to familiar alternatives. We test this through a randomized controlled trial with shrimp farmers in southwestern coastal Bangladesh, a region highly exposed to climate shocks. The government promotes Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) post-larvae (PL)—certified as disease-free—to reduce high mortality in shrimp farming. Farmers were randomly offered varying discount levels for two SPF-PL types, differing in size uniformity and market price (proxies for quality), with the highest discount reducing their prices to parity with conventional non-SPF PL. We find no significant effect of discounts on adoption of the lower-priced Mid-grade SPF-PL, characterized by less size uniformity. In contrast, discounts significantly increased adoption of the higher-priced, more uniform Premium-grade SPF-PL, raising uptake by 10–19 percentage points among active shrimp farmers. Larger discounts did not yield higher adoption than smaller ones, indicating diminishing returns to discount generosity. Heterogeneity analyses reveal behavioral and contextual mechanisms: prior exposure to Mid-grade SPF-PL reduced its subsequent adoption but increased responsiveness to Premium-grade, consistent with experience effects and reference dependence. Cyclone exposure dampened treatment responses, suggesting capital constraints, while infrastructure preparedness (e.g., nursing facilities) enhanced uptake. These findings underscore that in high-risk agricultural systems, price incentives alone may not drive adoption unless the promoted input is perceived as effective. Successful promotion strategies must integrate quality assurance with attention to farmer experience, behavioral biases, and vulnerability to shocks. |
| Keywords: | farmers; shellfish diseases; financial policies; shrimp culture; pond culture; supply chains; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:178761 |
| By: | Azzarri, Carlo; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu |
| Abstract: | Climate change intensifies risks in Nigeria’s agri-food systems, disproportionately affecting women due to social inequalities that increase their vulnerability and limit their adaptive capacity. Hotspot areas are concentrated in northern and north-central Nigeria, notably Bauchi, Benue, Kano, Jigawa, Kebby, Nasarawa, Niger, Sokoto, and Zamfara. Policy actions should prioritize climate-smart agriculture, gender-sensitive climate services, and social protection to improve resilience and equity. |
| Keywords: | climate change; gender; agriculture; agrifood systems; policies; Nigeria; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gssppn:179189 |
| By: | Narayanan, Sudha; Sakil, Abdul Zabbar; Kabir, Razin; Redoy, Md.; Belton, Ben |
| Abstract: | This project note summarizes insights from a three-year research project focused on an ambitious cluster intervention by the Department of Fisheries (DoF), Government of Bangladesh for shrimp farmers. In 2022, as part of a World Bank funded project, the Department of Fisheries organized smallholder shrimp farmers with contiguous ponds into clusters in Khulna, Satkhira and Bagerhat districts in southwest Bangladesh. Each cluster brought together 20-25 farmers, with pond sizes of at most 1.5 acres in size, to deliver training on best management practices, supply inputs, and encourage coordination. Group members were encouraged to follow a suite of management practices aimed at raising farm productivity, reducing the incidence of shrimp disease, and increasing the supply of raw material for processors. These measures included farming bagda shrimp (P. monodon)—Bangladesh’s main export species—in monoculture, raising shrimp stocking densities, stocking disease-free shrimp larvae (SPFPL), using factory-made feeds, deepening ponds, erecting biosecurity fencing, and coordinating stocking and harvesting activities with other group members. The costs of deepening ponds and adopting other improved management practices were borne by farmers themselves, but the clusters that made these investments received free SPF-PL and feed as incentives for doing so. The goal of this cluster intervention was to promote sufficient volumes of shrimp for processing plants for export, eventually paving the way for instituting traceability systems and group-based sustainability certification, increasingly a requirement in global retail markets. Even at the time of inception, the cluster program was intended as a time-bound two-year project that would end in 2025. |
| Keywords: | shrimp fisheries; evaluation; shrimp culture; farming systems; aquaculture systems; Bangladesh; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:179366 |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| Abstract: | The seventh edition of the Abstract Digest highlights a nutrition landscape in South Asia—and globally— marked by persistent anemia, poor dietary quality, and uneven progress in delivering effective interventions at scale. Several studies focus on anemia reduction, including a series published by The Lancet, showing that despite long-standing global commitments, most countries remain off track to meet current targets. New modelling evidence suggests that the existing Sustainable Development Goal of halving anemia prevalence among women of reproductive age by 2030 is unlikely to be achieved with current approaches, underscoring the need to prioritize more realistic and cost-effective strategies. Across maternal, child, and adolescent nutrition, featured studies examine trends and determinants of anemia among mother–child dyads in India, the effectiveness of multiple micronutrient supplementation during pregnancy in Bangladesh, and the strong link between maternal and child dietary diversity across low- and middle-income countries. Other articles draw attention to the growing influence of food environments and modern food systems in South Asia, including high consumption of ultra-processed foods and emerging links between climate change, food systems, and inflammation-related health outcomes. This edition also highlights evidence from Nepal on adolescent nutrition challenges and implementation research, alongside reviews pointing to gaps in evaluation methods and the need for better-aligned measurement tools. Together, the articles in this edition reinforce the importance of aligning evidence, policy, and delivery systems, and call for more rigorous evaluation of scalable nutrition interventions in real-world settings. A blog from the recent annual Delivering for Nutrition in South Asia conference, held in Kathmandu, Nepal and online from December 2–4, highlights key lessons on what it takes to achieve nutrition impact at scale. Please scroll down to explore these articles. If you were forwarded this Abstract Digest, we invite you to subscribe. Happy reading! |
| Keywords: | nutrition; maternal and child health; gender; health; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshad:179407 |
| By: | Colin Aitken; Rajat Masiwal; Adam Marchakitus; Katherine Kowal; Mayank Gupta; Tyler Yang; Amir Jina; Pedram Hassanzadeh; William R. Boos; Michael Kremer |
| Abstract: | Hundreds of millions of farmers make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty about future weather. Forecasts can inform these decisions, but available choices and their risks and benefits vary between farmers. We introduce a decision-theory framework for designing useful forecasts in settings where the forecaster cannot prescribe optimal actions because farmers' circumstances are heterogeneous. We apply this framework to the case of seasonal onset of monsoon rains, a key date for planting decisions and agricultural investments in many tropical countries. We develop a system for tailoring forecasts to the requirements of this framework by blending systematically benchmarked artificial intelligence (AI) weather prediction models with a new "evolving farmer expectations" statistical model. This statistical model applies Bayesian inference to historical observations to predict time-varying probabilities of first-occurrence events throughout a season. The blended system yields more skillful Indian monsoon forecasts at longer lead times than its components or any multi-model average. In 2025, this system was deployed operationally in a government-led program that delivered subseasonal monsoon onset forecasts to 38 million Indian farmers, skillfully predicting that year's early-summer anomalous dry period. This decision-theory framework and blending system offer a pathway for developing climate adaptation tools for large vulnerable populations around the world. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.07893 |
| By: | Gace, Sara; Rode, Julian |
| Abstract: | The Vjosa River Basin, located in the heart of the Balkans, is one of Europe's last free-flowing wild rivers comprising a large number of pristine habitat types with a wealth of biodiversity. Widespread degradation of the forest ecosystem and unsustainable land use due to logging and livestock farming have led to an urgent need for effective conservation planning and sustainable management. This study applies the Ecosystem Service Opportunity (ESO) framework to provide a diagnosis of the social-ecological context and the current institutional and legal frameworks governing the Vjosa River in Permet area and its surroundings. Based on 15 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from local government, NGOs, and a national government agency, we identify opportunities for policy and finance instruments to encourage ecosystem conservation and sustainable livelihoods. The results are compared to Integrated Management Plan (IMP) for the Vjosa Wild River National Park. Our results align with the IMP approach in several strategic areas (i.e., stronger law enforcement and patrolling, regulating illegal livestock grazing, improved staff management and collaboration between local agencies, incorporating traditional knowledge in conservation strategies), but further emphasizes the need for action beyond national park boundaries, decentralization with stronger municipal involvement, establishment of a collaborative platform, and the diversification of funding initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Vjosa River Basin, ecosystem services, conservation, policy instruments, financing mechanisms |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:338072 |
| By: | Vitellozzi, Sveva; Savadori, Lucia; Davis, Kristin E.; Azzarri, Carlo; Kinuthia, Dickson; Ronzani, Piero |
| Abstract: | In several countries and settings, especially in low- and middle-income countries, men are expected to act as primary economic providers for their households, bearing the psychological and social burdens associated with this role. Despite its potential consequences, the effects of the breadwinner role on economic decision-making are understudied, particularly among poor households. This study investigates how gendered breadwinner expectations shape economic behavior in rural Kenya. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment among 400 smallholder farmers in Vihiga County, we test how psychological and social pressures associated with being the breadwinner of the family influence decision-making in both individual work choices and collective decisions. Participants completed a real-effort task choosing either a high-effort, high-reward option or a low-effort, low-reward alternative, followed by a public goods game framed around communal seed bank contributions. Results reveal that the heightened strain of the main breadwinner led male participants to reduce contributions to the communal seed bank by 0.2 standard deviations, while it did not affect their productivity in the real-effort task. These behavioral shifts suggest that the psychological consequences of breadwinner strain can undermine cooperation and the adoption of sustainable agriculture practices. Addressing the pressures of breadwinning can foster both economic resilience and social cohesion. |
| Keywords: | gender; gender norms; decision making; poverty; households; intrahousehold relations; Kenya; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180329 |
| By: | Yann Raineau (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Eric Giraud-Heraud (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sébastien Lecocq (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Le recours aux nudges (coups de pouce comportementaux) est fréquemment discuté dans les politiques publiques visant à orienter les agents économiques et les citoyens vers des choix plus durables. Une expérimentation menée auprès de viticulteurs du Bordelais a permis d'étudier l'efficacité des nudges fondés sur la comparaison sociale pour réduire l'utilisation des pesticides. Il apparait que la transmission d'une information volontairement minimaliste sur l'usage des pesticides dans le voisinage du destinataire, peut avoir un impact significatif, démontrant l'existence de marges de réduction possibles. A contrario, une information plus détaillée s'avère inefficace, soulevant ainsi de sérieuses questions éthiques concernant les mécanismes de ce type d'intervention. |
| Keywords: | Ethique de l'information, Pesticide, Nudge |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05532616 |
| By: | Benson, Todd; Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim |
| Abstract: | Smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies have had limited success in Malawi over the past several decades. Policy makers are now increasingly looking for alternative ways to accelerate agricultural and rural development. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agri-business firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Support for such partnerships is growing, but there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve and the conditions they need for success. Summarizing findings from a detailed report (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, forthcoming). This policy note seeks to address these questions and provide guidance for future action. We structure our discussion around five questions: what the model is, when it can make sense, for whom it can work, how it can be implemented, and whether it can contribute to inclusive rural development. |
| Keywords: | development; enterprises; contract farming; farming systems; Malawi; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:impass:178508 |
| By: | Raya Das (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sanchit Gupta; Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | This policy brief examines the economic viability, scalability, and sustainability of shrimp aquaculture in Haryana, drawing on primary field insights from Sirsa district and comparative evidence from West Godavari, Krishna and Kakinada districts in Andhra Pradesh, India's leading shrimp-producing state. The analysis reveals that in Sirsa, even with a single shrimp cycle per year, farm-level profitability is 4 to 5 times higher than the prevailing paddy-wheat cropping system. In contrast, Andhra Pradesh, where two shrimp cycles per year dominate records about 10 times increase in profitability compared to paddy–paddy cultivation. However, shrimp aquaculture entails substantially higher capital investment and working-capital requirements. Also, the risks are much higher and that makes the entry of new players difficult. Our risk simulation models estimate a high probability of farmers exiting the business due to production risks induced crop failures. This calls for better production system, access to finance, market, and insurance mechanism to be in place so that scaling up of shrimp farming can be viable. Policy measures such as local feed and processing infrastructure, vertical value-chain integration, IoT-enabled resource-use efficiency, and stronger FPO-led market access are essential to ensure long-term sustainability. If appropriately supported, shrimp aquaculture can transform salinity-induced agrarian distress into a high-value economic opportunity for farmers in Haryana. |
| Keywords: | Shrimp, aquaculture, finance, agriculture, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:59 |
| By: | Yadav, Anjali |
| Abstract: | How do newspapers frame extreme weather events (EWEs), and does framing differ systematically by event type? Extreme weather attribution is a rapidly growing field of climate science, yet media coverage often diverges from scientific understanding, shaping public perceptions of whether EWEs are human-induced crises or naturally occurring phenomena. This paper presents a corpus-based computational text analysis of approximately 18, 000 articles published in The Guardian between 1997 and 2022, covering hurricanes (n ≈ 10, 000) and droughts (n ≈ 8, 000). We test the null hypothesis that there is no difference in narrative framing of different extreme weather events in relation to climate change. Using a six-category theory-driven keyword occurrence matrix covering climate change attribution, severity and damage, social inequality, policy response, emotional and psychological responses, and knowledge discourse derived from IPCC attribution research, we compare framing patterns across the two corpora. We find strong grounds to reject the null hypothesis: drought articles are more frequently framed in terms of climate change attribution and human causation, while hurricane coverage is more strongly associated with economic damage framing. These asymmetries have significant implications for the political economy of climate information, public risk perception, and the governance of climate adaptation. |
| Date: | 2024–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qsd97_v1 |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; De Weerdt, Joachim; Fang, Peixun; Jones, Eleanor; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | This paper is an update of Country Brief 8 in the series of Agrifood System Diagnostics coauthored by De Weerdt et al. (2023). The important addition from the previous country brief is a new section assessing agriculture’s environmental footprint, focusing on water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by subsector and over time. Unlike the previous version, this brief does not include a forward-looking analysis—using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023)—of the contribution of productivity growth in agricultural value chains on agrifood transformation, employment, and socioeconomic outcomes. For a recent and extensive value chain ranking analysis that incorporates RIAPA modeling results, readers are referred to Pienaar et al. (2023). Malawi experienced slow growth in the post COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition to the economic impacts of the pandemic itself, the country suffered from high levels of public debt and a sustained balance of payments crisis. Global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather events such as Cyclone Freddy and the El Niño in 2023–2024 further prevented the Malawi economy from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent in 2011–2019 to 2.2 percent since 2020 (World Bank 2025), with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent per year during 2009–2022. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; environmental impact; value chains; trade; Malawi; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspp:178668 |
| By: | Heckert, Jessica; Sow, Doulo; Tranchant, Jean-Pierre; Paz, Florencia; Gelli, Aulo |
| Abstract: | Armed conflict has myriad negative consequences on the wellbeing of women and men, and its non-random nature makes it difficult to study its impacts. We examine the changes in empowerment during the period of 2017-2020 in western Burkina Faso as armed conflict moved closer. We combined data from the randomized-controlled trial of Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Elevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Economie Rural (SELEVER) a gender- and nutrition-sensitive poultry production intervention, which collected the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index with geospatial- and date-specific data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project database. To evaluate the effect of conflict on empowerment, we estimated a continuous difference-in-difference model, separately for women and men, across multiple empowerment indicators, in which the primary explanatory variable describes the change in distance to conflict during this time period. Then, to determine if the SELEVER program had a protective effect when there was increased proximity to conflict, we estimated these models separately for the treatment and control groups and compare the difference in the coefficients. As conflict encroached, there was a shift in intrahousehold decision making that suggests less coordination between spouses and fewer decisions made jointly, along with a greater acceptance of intimate partner violence among women. We also found increases in other outcomes, such as men’s group membership, and women’s and men’s access to credit. These changes may be attributable to how communities responded and how humanitarian aid was delivered. We found that the SELEVER program had a protective effect on men’s work balance and the amount of time that both women and men spent working. Notably, however, women spent more time on childcare activities as conflict become closer. |
| Keywords: | gender; women's empowerment; conflicts; randomized controlled trials; fragility; Burkina Faso; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180989 |
| By: | Xingjian Ding; Yumin Hu; Shilei Liu; Cong Peng; Jintao Xu; Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu; Qinghua Zhang |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal impact of highway expansion on forest quality in China, where expressway growth coincided with widespread greening. We link maps of highways built in 2000-2010 to China's National Forest Inventory: over 18, 000 geo-located plots in 11 provinces surveyed in 1999-2003 and 2009-2013, with ground measures of standing timber volume and canopy structure. Long-difference and instrumental-variables designs—using a terrain-based least-cost network and the 1962 road plan—show that moving 10 km closer to a new highway increases timber volume by 2-4.3%, with effects concentrated 1-20 km from roads. The implied gains in forest biomass correspond to 55.8-141.9 Mt of CO2, comparable at the upper bound to the Netherlands' annual emissions. Under strict land-use controls and forest tenure reform, improved downstream market access induces investment and specialization in forestry. A calibrated spatial equilibrium model attributes most of the estimated gains to downstream market access, highlighting the environmental benefits of connectivity. |
| Keywords: | public infrastructure, environmental externalities, forest management, market access, land-use regulation |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2162 |
| By: | Kyle, Jordan; Ragasa, Catherine |
| Abstract: | The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize equal participation and empowerment of women in all levels of decisionmaking, yet frameworks and tools to measure and strengthen women's empowerment in policy spaces remain limited. Focusing on agrifood systems, this paper introduces a framework, metrics, and scoring method to track women’s empowerment in policy processes (WEAGov) and presents findings from pilot applications in India and Nigeria. The pilots draw on novel surveys with more than 200 agrifood organizations and policy experts across the public sector, private sector, civil society, and research communities in both countries. Across both countries, we find that agrifood policy documents incorporate gender priorities on paper but fall short in budgeting, implementation, and evaluation. Prevailing social attitudes and limited awareness of policies, regulations, and legal rights remain major constraints on women’s ability to engage meaningfully in policy processes. Women participate as staff and mid-level managers in agrifood organizations, but their representation at higher decision-making levels are limited. Expert assessments also highlight disconnects between formal roles and the actual influence women can exert over policy decisions. Gender-responsive budgeting processes are absent in Nigeria and weakly-institutionalized in India, where compliance has become procedural rather than transformative. These patterns reveal persistent bottlenecks in translating gender commitments into practice. By systematically tracking barriers and identifying entry points for reform, the WEAGov framework offers governments, researchers, and civil society organizations a practical tool to diagnose gaps in women’s empowerment in agrifood policy processes and to strengthen their inclusiveness and accountability. |
| Keywords: | women's empowerment; gender; women; governance; food policies; India; Nigeria; Africa; Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Asia; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179834 |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute; Hayoge, Glen; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu |
| Abstract: | This report provides analysis of food price trends for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, from July to September. The Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) continues to collect prices from major markets despite recurrent logistical challenges to maintain consistent data for capturing, analyzing and informing relevant stakeholders. Due to insufficient data being collected from April to June (collected only for May across all markets and for April in Banz and Kokopo), no second quarter bulletin was published. This report compares prices in Q3 2025 with Q1, Q2 (with the available limited data) of 2025, and Q3 2024 to identify quarterly and year-on-year trends of prices. Prices are reported in PGK per kilogram and represent real prices adjusted for inflation using FAO Consumer Food Price Index (PCI) and price gaps (April to September 2025) filled using a growth rate calculated from the PNG National Statistical Office (NSO) - June quarterly PCI data. This bulletin focuses on selected important staples (sweet potato, taro, cassava, cooking banana and rice), vegetables (aibika, English cabbage, capsicum, carrot, and choko-tips) and fruits (lemon, orange, pawpaw and pineapple). For longer time series data and interactive tools, visit the IFPRI website and download food price data here. |
| Keywords: | food prices; legumes; markets; staple foods; rice; fruits; food security; nutrition; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2025–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:nsspwp:178716 |
| By: | Mariana Marchionni (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Julián Pedrazzi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); María Florencia Pinto (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | Structural transformation—the shift from agriculture toward industry and services—is a defining feature of economic development, with the potential to reshape gender gaps in labor markets. Yet little is known about how this process has unfolded in rural Latin America, where women face a double disadvantage stemming from both gender and rurality. In this paper, we document the evolution of rural women’s labor market outcomes in 14 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2023, drawing on harmonized household surveys that provide comparable indicators across time and space. We complement this analysis with a pseudo-event study around the birth of the first child to estimate motherhood effects, and with time-use data from Mexico to explore household mechanisms that constrain women’s labor supply. Our results show that despite important educational progress, rural women continue to lag behind rural men and urban women in employment, hours worked, and earnings. Structural transformation has contributed to declining informality and rising participation in services and formal salaried jobs, but it has not closed rural-urban or gender gaps: unpaid family labor and other precarious forms of employment remain widespread. Motherhood further exacerbates these disadvantages. While rural mothers experience smaller short-term employment drops than urban mothers and show some recovery over time, they are increasingly pushed into unpaid work and low-skilled self-employment, reinforcing long-term income gaps. Evidence from Mexico suggests that this disadvantage is not primarily driven by childcare demands—similar across rural and urban mothers— but rather by heavier burdens of household chores, home production for own consumption, and lower access to labor-saving technologies. By providing the first systematic evidence on how structural transformation interacts with motherhood in rural Latin America, our paper makes two contributions. First, it fills a gap in the literature by offering a detailed, cross-country account of rural women’s labor market outcomes over two decades in a region where evidence has been scarce. Second, it brings together insights from the literature on structural change and child penalties, showing that structural transformation alone is insufficient to generate inclusive labor market opportunities for rural women when unpaid work and caregiving responsibilities remain unequally distributed. |
| JEL: | D63 J13 J16 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0360 |
| By: | Trachtman, Carly; Hill, Ruth Vargas |
| Abstract: | Low and middle income countries have been facing mounting pressure from lenders and donors to eliminate or reform fertilizer subsidy programs, which can have distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities. However, there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both in theory and in practice, and hence who may be affected by policy reform. In this paper, we identify low and middle countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are meant to be universal, there are are additional implicit targeting criteria and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls in many countries. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, fertilizer subsidies are generally progressive, though this seems to be driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | fertilizers; inorganic fertilizers; subsidies; targeting |
| Date: | 2025–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:178957 |
| By: | Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Deepak Guptа; Subhodeep Basu |
| Abstract: | India's electricity distribution system continues to face a structural imbalance. Publicly owned Distribution Companies (DISCOMs) bear the dual burden of universal service obligations and sometimes politically determined tariffs. This results in persistent financial losses, particularly in rural supply. While renewable energy expansion has accelerated nationally, it remains heavily centralised, doing little to alleviate the high cost of rural power delivery. Agriphotovoltaics (APV), the dual use of land for solar power generation while continuing agriculture, offers a structural innovation that can bridge this gap. By generating electricity directly within rural feeders, APV systems reduce transmission losses, defer infrastructure investments, and transform farmers from subsidised consumers into energy partners. Drawing on ICRIER’s pilot projects in Rajasthan and Odisha, the brief demonstrates how farmer-led APV models can align renewable energy deployment with livelihood enhancement. A sensitivity analysis of the Rajasthan pilot reveals that while capital subsidies can ease entry barriers, a remunerative Feed-in Tariff (FiT) of around INR 4.40/kWh is critical for ensuring long-term financial viability and scalability. The findings highlight the need for policy recalibration that recognises APV as both a decentralised energy solution and a rural development instrument that would be capable of improving DISCOM viability, enhancing farmer incomes, and advancing India's just energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Agriphotovoltaics, farmers-income, business models, Feed-in-Tariff, PM KUSUM, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:62 |
| By: | Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti (BANQUE DE FRANCE AND BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Cristina Peñasco (BANQUE DE FRANCE AND UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE); Rok Spruk (UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of “green regulations” - i.e. those aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change and environmental externalities - on innovation, using a novel regulatory database covering the period 008-2022 for Spain. The database identifies regulations at both the national and regional levels through textual analysis. Employing a panel data approach, we assess how different types of environmental regulations - particularly those related to renewable energy - affect firm-level innovation activities. Our findings indicate that national-level green regulations have a positive effect on innovation, whereas regional-level regulations show mixed or negligible impacts. Importantly, the interaction between national and regional regulations, measuring the simultaneous production of legal texts at both levels, can foster innovation but at a reduced pace with respect to the sole production of regulation at the national level. Given the results for regional-level regulation, our findings provide evidence in favour of the hypothesis that regulatory fragmentation due to unequal, overlapping, inconsistent or conflicting procedure across jurisdictions may diminish these benefits. |
| Keywords: | green regulation, innovation, Porter hypothesis, renewable energy, business |
| JEL: | K32 Q5 O44 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2611 |
| By: | Kumar, Anjani; Bathla, Seema; Singh, Dhiraj K. |
| Abstract: | This study examines gendered patterns of time use in rural India using nationally representative time use surveys from 2019 and 2024, capturing shifts in labor force participation amid significant socioeconomic changes, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis reveals a notable rise in rural women’s labor force participation—from 32 percent to 35.9 percent in agriculture—with a 38 percent increase in their paid agricultural work time. However, this progress coexists alongside entrenched gender disparities in unpaid domestic work, where women continue to spend nearly five hours daily, limiting their engagement in nonagricultural employment, which remains male-dominated and stagnant for women. Using multivariate regression and Gelbach decomposition, the study identifies gender, landholding, education, income, and caste as significant determinants of time allocation. Yet, much of the increase in women’s work time is driven by unobserved factors, likely linked to post-pandemic livelihood adjustments and structural constraints. The findings underscore that recent gains in women’s participation reflect genuine shifts rather than statistical artefacts but caution that without addressing time poverty, gender norms, and access to diversified livelihoods, these gains may not translate into sustainable empowerment. The paper calls for integrated policy measures, including gender-responsive agricultural support, public care infrastructure, skill development, and behavioral interventions to rebalance domestic responsibilities and facilitate women’s transition to higher productivity sectors. |
| Keywords: | gender; labour; multivariate analysis; rural areas; unpaid work; surveys; time study; India; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:181545 |