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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Kumara T M, Kiran; Birthal, Pratap Singh; Meena, Dinesh Chand; Kumar, Anjani |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is multi-functional, producing economic goods including food, feed, fibre, and fuel, as well as providing several intangible or non-tradable services to society free of cost. Non-tradable services, unlike economic goods, remain unpriced; as a result, farmers are not compensated monetarily for the benefits of the several non-tradable services they provide through agriculture. Recognizing the monetary value of non-tradable ecosystem services is crucial to incentivize farmers to adopt eco-friendly technologies and practices for the sustainable development of agriculture. Through a meta-analysis of the existing evidence on ecosystem services, this study attempts to estimate the value of ecosystem services by using direct and indirect valuation methods—for example, carbon sequestration, methane emission, nutrient availability, biological nitrogen fixation, and water saving—generated by several important technological and agronomic interventions, namely the direct seeding of rice (DSR), zero-tillage in wheat, leguminous crops, organic manure, integrated nutrient management, and agroforestry, based on studies conducted in India. It also explores the trade-offs between the non-tradable and tradable ecosystem services attributable to these interventions. The monetary value of the non-tradable services resulting from most of these interventions is quite large, 34–77% of the total value of all the ecosystem services. However, not all interventions result in a win-win situation that yields improvements in both tradable and non-tradable outcomes. While no-till wheat, legumes, and integrated nutrient management result in a win-win outcome, there are trade-offs between the tradable and non tradable ecosystem services in the cases of directed seed rice, organic manure, and agroforestry. This evidence suggests that not all agricultural technologies and practices are beneficial for farmers, despite their higher environmental benefits. Thus, the findings of this study imply that agricultural policy should provide incentives for the adoption of technologies and practices to conserve ecosystems and natural resources. |
| Keywords: | ecosystem services; agriculture; economic value; farmers; sustainability; incentives; technology adoption; India; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140796 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila |
| Abstract: | Nutrition-sensitive agricultural diversification continues to receive interest among developing country stakeholders as a viable option for achieving dual goals of poverty reduction and food/nutrition security improvements. Assessing the effectiveness of this strategy is also essential in countries like Tajikistan. We attempt to enrich the evidence base in this regard. We assess the linkages between household-level agricultural diversification and dietary diversity (both household- and individual-levels) using unique panel samples of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province. Using difference-in-difference propensity-score methods and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions, we show that higher agricultural diversification together with greater overall production per worker and land at the household level leads to higher dietary diversity, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Typology analyses and crop-specific analyses suggest that vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products and eggs are particularly important commodities for which a farmer’s own production contributes to dietary diversity improvement. Furthermore, decomposition exercises within the subsistence farming framework suggest that nutritional returns and costs of agricultural diversification vary across households, and expected nutritional returns may be partly driving the adoption of agricultural diversification. In other words, households’ decisions to diversify agriculture may be partly driven by potential nutritional benefits associated with enhanced direct on-farm access to diverse food items rather than farm income growth alone. Our findings underscore the importance of supporting household farm diversification in Tajikistan to support improved nutrition intake, especially among those living in remote areas. In a low-income setting with limited local employment opportunities that is vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, this will likely continue to be one of the most straightforward and realistic paths to improving household’s nutrition resilience. |
| Keywords: | dietary diversity; food security; nutrition; propensity score matching; agriculture; modelling; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140750 |
| By: | Laborde Debucquet, David; Olivetti, Elsa B.; Piñeiro, Valeria; Illescas, Nelson |
| Abstract: | This study identifies food system interventions with high transformational potential for Indonesia by utilizing the MIRAGRODEP a multi-region, multisector computable general equilibrium model to analyze policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. Initiatives such as social safety nets and food stamps can enhance affordability, while repurposing farm subsidies can improve socio-economic sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages that include social safety nets, repurposing agricultural supports, environmental regulation and investment in sustainable production, can lead to substantial GDP growth, poverty reduction, and dietary enhancements. However, each intervention presents distinct trade-offs between economic gains and environmental implications. This analysis underscores the need for a holistic policy approach when trying to achieve multiple sustainability goals. Implementing a blend of policies designed to promote environmental, social, and economic sustainability simultaneously could drive Indonesia towards a sustainable and resilient food system, addressing the complex interplay between economic development, environmental conservation, and improved nutrition. |
| Keywords: | food systems; computable general equilibrium models; policies; social safety nets; sustainable development; agriculture; economic development; nutrition; poverty; Indonesia; South-eastern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:149269 |
| By: | Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Marilign, Yalew M.; Warner, James; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather event of 2015/16 caused severe drought conditions in northern and central Ethiopia affecting the welfare of millions of farmers in late 2015 and early 2016. Using nationally representative panel data collected in 2012 and 2016 and recent advances in the difference-indifferences literature, this paper explores the effects of the 2015/16 drought and the potential role of irrigation in reducing the adverse effects of the drought. We find that the drought caused, on average, a 37 percent reduction in net annual crop income, an 8 percent decline in area cultivated, a 3 percent decline in household dietary diversity score, and a 10 percent decline in the share of harvest sold for rainfed farmers. On the other hand, irrigating farmers affected by the drought managed to increase their daily expenditures by 72 percent of their average daily food expenditure in the pre-drought period, and maintained their net crop income, size of cultivated land, household dietary diversity, and share of harvest sold to the market. Overall, while rainfed agricultural producers suffered sharp declines in welfare, those farmers with access to irrigation maintained their economic status. The results suggest that irrigation protected farmers from the adverse effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event and given increasing climate variability in Ethiopia, the government should intensify its investment and support to irrigation development in the country. |
| Keywords: | drought; irrigation; resilience; farmers; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:139780 |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Vos, Rob; Kim, Soonho; Park, Beyeong; Zaki, Sediqa; Mamboundou, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available. The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience. |
| Keywords: | staple foods; food prices; Ukraine; less favoured areas; vulnerability; food security; imports; price volatility |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140444 |
| By: | Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Andam, Kwaw S.; Amare, Mulubrhan; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Fasoranti, Adetunji |
| Abstract: | Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world and one of the highest consumers. This paper documents the challenges in cowpea production and consumption, export, and import trends in Nigeria. The critical and comparative review reveals several important insights. Cowpea is important for households and communities due to its substantial contributions to food security, nutrition, and revenue production. It plays a pivotal role in supporting various stakeholders involved in the value chain, including producers, processors, traders, and food vendors. Thus, cowpea is a crucial multipurpose crop. Although Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world, with a total production of 3.6 million tons in 2021, the demand for cowpea surpasses its supply due to factors such as the country's large population and low productivity. We describe the main challenges encountered in Nigeria's cowpea production, encompassing a range of issues such as high susceptibility to pests and diseases from planting to storage phases, low adoption of improved cowpea seed varieties, poor soil fertility, drought, and heat stress. The data suggest that low input use, low-yield varieties, and low productivity characterize the current level of cowpea production. Our findings suggest the need for tailored strategies to support the adoption of improved cowpea varieties in Nigeria to increase domestic production, adherence to quality standards, exploration of international markets for export opportunities, and ultimately, household income and improve nutritional outcomes. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; cowpeas; value chains; households; exports; imports; Nigeria; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:139672 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Konstantinos Dellis; Christopher Deranian; Theofanis Zacharatos |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is a fundamental sector for Greece, accounting for more than 4% of the GDP and representing almost 11% of total employment. However, it is characterized by stagnant productivity and subpar contribution to climate change mitigation efforts. This chapter explores the transformation of the Greek agri-food system toward sustainability, leveraging insights from the FABLE calculator. The analysis highlights the environmental and economic benefits of transitioning to a National Commitments pathway, which aligns with EU and national policies and declarations and is underpinned by a bold reform agenda across the agri-food value chain. Key findings indicate that implementing targeted policies and adopting sustainable agricultural practices could halve agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 while reducing production costs by nearly 50%. A central theme of the chapter is the double dividend of shifting to a Mediterranean diet, which not only enhances public health but also significantly reduces emissions, particularly methane, from livestock. Holding all other assumptions compatible with a business-as-usual scenario, shifting to a Mediterranean diet is associated with a curbing of GHG emissions from agriculture of 5% by 2030 and 46% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. The findings underscore the importance of addressing structural challenges in the Greek agricultural sector, including fragmented landholdings, low productivity, and slow technological adoption. Policy recommendations emphasize increasing investment in precision agriculture, strengthening Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKIS), and promoting financial incentives to facilitate sustainable transitions. Moreover, integrating the Mediterranean diet into national health strategies and raising public awareness can drive demand-side shifts. Ultimately, this chapter provides a roadmap for Greece to achieve a resilient and low-emission agri-food system, aligning with broader sustainability goals while fostering economic and environmental benefits. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2556 |
| By: | Bangsund, Dean A.; Hodur, Nancy M. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:373288 |
| By: | Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops. |
| Keywords: | bioeconomic models; climate change; maize; crop modelling; agricultural production; modelling; climate models; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:139503 |
| By: | Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Abstract: | We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks. |
| Keywords: | fertilizer application; smallholders; household surveys; yield response factor; shock; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:148984 |
| By: | Adong, Annet; Ambler, Kate; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; de Brauw, Alan; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Islam, AHM Saiful; Wagner, Julia |
| Abstract: | Intermediary firms within agri-food value chains operating between the farmgate and retailers typically account for at least as much, if not more, value added as the primary agricultural production sector of the economy, but little is known about how these small and largely informal firms conduct their business. Drawing on a set of innovative surveys implemented amid the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, we describe the financial activities of the firms that transform agricultural produce into food. We document four sets of results. First, across all intermediary actors in our data the overwhelming majority of transactions are cash-based. Second, although many intermediary actors are un-banked, access to financial accounts varies considerably by value chain segment, commodity, and country. Third, while most intermediary actors report using mobile money for personal purposes, especially in Uganda, very few use mobile money to facilitate business transactions. Fourth, although intermediary actors frequently report exposure to risk, very few effectively manage this risk. We conclude by discussing how intermediary agri-food value chain actors represent an underappreciated population for the promotion of new technologies both to improve the stability of the agricultural sector and to improve outcomes among smallholder farmers. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; finance; mobile phones; technology; value chains; Bangladesh; Uganda; Africa; Eastern Africa; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:151859 |
| By: | Martin, Will; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | Progress toward reducing global hunger has stalled since the mid-2010s. In fact, hunger is on the rise again, driven by slowing economic growth and protracted conflict, intensified by the impacts of climate change and economic shocks in many low- and middle-income countries. In addition, food systems worldwide have suffered disruptions in recent years, caused by the COVID-19-related global recession and associated supply chain disruptions, and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. These factors have also jeopardized efforts at addressing the challenges to food system sustainability. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the related sustainable development goals (SDGs), defined in 2015, recognize these challenges and set ambitious targets to end hunger and all forms of malnutrition and to make agriculture and food systems sustainable by 2030. Many other fora have restated and reiterated these ambitions, including the 2021 United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS). While governments around the world have subscribed to these ambitions, collectively they have not been very specific as to how to achieve the SDGs and related goals and targets, except for three means of implementation (MOI) involving (i) increases in research and development, (ii) reductions in trade distortions, and (iii) improved functioning and reduced volatility in food markets. This paper is part of a wider effort at assessing the international community’s follow-through on the above ambitions and the related (implicit or explicit) commitments made toward action for achieving them. While not presenting new research findings, we bring together available evidence and scenario analyses to assess the progress made toward the ambitions for transforming food systems, the actions taken in regard of the internationally concerted agenda, and the potential for accelerating progress. The number of hungry people in the world has risen from 564 million in 2015, when the SDGs were agreed, to 735 million in 2022. While declines to between 570 and 590 million by 2030 are projected, this is far above the 470 million projected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. The share of the world’s people unable to afford healthy diets is projected to decline from 42 percent in 2021 to a still far too high 36 percent by 2030. On the means of implementation, levels of spending on agricultural research and development have increased, particularly in key developing countries such as Brazil, China and India. However, rates of investment remain too low for comfort, particularly in low-income countries. Also, little progress has been made in reducing agricultural trade distortions and many countries continue to use trade policy measures, such as export restrictions, which have proven to increase the volatility of both world and domestic food prices. We conclude that progress toward the SDG-2 targets has been dismal, and that the food system challenges have only become bigger. But we also find that it is not too late to accelerate progress and that the desired food system transformation can still be achieved over a reasonable timespan and at manageable incremental cost. Doing so will require unprecedented concerted and coherent action on multiple fronts, which may prove the biggest obstacle of all. |
| Keywords: | food security; food systems; hunger; nutrition; diet; sustainable development goals |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:138940 |
| By: | Mamun, Abdullah; Laborde Debucquet, David |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (e.g., ban, tax, licensing etc.) were applied: the 2008 and 2010 food price crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price change is measured from a reference level in the long interval than the short interval. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, commodity share in production and export, weather condition increases the chances of imposing export restrictions. Per capita income, population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, political economy indicators - all have a negative influence on this likelihood. |
| Keywords: | agricultural products; commodities; COVID-19; export controls; international trade; war; trade liberalization; exports |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140687 |
| By: | Ruoyan Zhang (School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China; Economic Growth Centre, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Shengqiang Zhou (School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, China); Ru Chen (Bay Area International Business School, Beijing Normal University, China; Economic Growth Centre, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | China is harmonizing the symbiotic relationship between humans and nature through efforts to implement grassland ecological compensation policies (GECP), which have triggered changes in the resilience of farmers' livelihoods within grassland ecosystems. This study examines the direct impacts of climate change on the livelihood resilience of farm households and the direct and moderating effects of GECP on livelihood resilience by constructing a robust empirical strategy using sample data from a multi-year tracking of the regions where GECP was implemented. The results showed that the level of livelihood resilience of farm households showed an increasing trend during the period 2010–2019, buffering capacity and learning capacity are important components in the livelihood resilience of farm households, and higher temperatures and reduced precipitation have negative impacts on the livelihood resilience of farm households. The direct effect of GECP implementation significantly increased the level of livelihood resilience of farm households in the second cycle, but GECP was shown to play a significant moderating role in the relationship between climate change risk and livelihood resilience. The policy moderating effect attenuated the impact of climate change risk on the resilience of farmers' livelihoods and was more pronounced for farmers in husbandry-oriented livelihood strategies. Subsidy intensity is a key factor influencing the moderating effect, more so among farmers with lower levels of resilience and livestock-reducing production decisions. Enhancing the diversity and precision of subsidies is a future direction of improvement for GECP. |
| Keywords: | Livelihood resilience, Climate change, Grassland ecosystem, Ecological compensation, Moderating effect |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nan:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Zahniser, Steven; Castillo, Marcelo; Simnitt, Skyler |
| Abstract: | USDAʼs Census of Agriculture, conducted every 5 years, collects data on farm labor expenses, with details for both contract and hired labor by agricultural industry, location, and farm size (as measured by sales). These data, when adjusted for inflation, reveal that total farm labor expenses, production expenses, and sales of agricultural products all increased in real terms from 1997 to 2022. Two measures of labor intensity, the ratio of labor expenses to total production expenses (labor-to-total-expenses) and the ratio of labor expenses to total agricultural sales (labor-to-sales), showed no clear upward or downward trend at the national level during this period. However, consistent with other evidence of a recent tightening of farm labor markets, between 2012 and 2022 the labor-to-total-expenses ratio increased overall and in virtually all industries, particularly those where the ratio was initially high. The increase in the labor-to-sales ratio was more muted nationally, but the change in this ratio varied more across industries. The increase in this ratio was particularly large (more than 5 percentage points) for two industries: tobacco and fruit and tree nuts. Otherwise, the distribution of labor expenses by industry, U.S. State, and farm size changed relatively little over the past several Censuses. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Dairy Farming, Labor and Human Capital, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:373314 |
| By: | Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy; Bulte, Erwin; Miguel, Jérémy Do Nascimento; Sadoulet, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to purchase the quality they are most interested in and reward sellers accordingly. Beyond product characteristics, buyers’ use of TPC services also depends on market conditions. We study the introduction of TPC in typical smallholder-based agriculture value chains of low-income countries, where traders must aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors, and where introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders’ choice to purchase quality-certified output from farmers. Using a purposefully designed lab-in-the-field experiment with rural wheat traders in Ethiopia, we find mixed support for the model’s prediction: traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output does increase with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. It, however, does not decrease with the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We further analyze conditions where traders deviate from the theoretically optimal behavior and discuss implications for future research and public policies seeking to promote TPC in smallholder-based food value-chains. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; certification; markets; quality; smallholders; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:144973 |
| By: | Gianfranco Giuloni; Edmondo Di Giuseppe; Arianna Di Paola |
| Abstract: | This work outlines the modeling steps for developing a tool aimed at supporting policymakers in guiding policies toward more sustainable wheat production. In the agricultural sector, policies affect a highly diverse set of farms, which differ across several dimensions such as size, land composition, local climate, and irrigation availability. To address this significant heterogeneity, we construct an Agent-Based Model (ABM). The model is initialized using a representative survey of Italian farms, which captures their heterogeneity. The ABM is then scaled to include a number of farms comparable to those operating nationwide. To capture broader dynamics, the ABM is integrated with two additional components:a global model of international wheat markets and a tool for assessing the environmental impacts of wheat production. This integrated framework enables us to account for the feedback loop between global prices and local production while evaluating the environmental implications of policy measures. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02154 |
| By: | Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | The agriculture sector receives substantial fiscal subsidies in various forms, including through programs that are linked to production and others that are decoupled. As the sector has reached the technology frontier in production over the last three decades or so, particularly in high- and middle-income countries, it is intriguing to investigate the impact of subsidies on productivity at aggregate level. This study examines the impact of subsidies on productivity growth in agriculture globally using a long time series on the nominal rate of assistance for 42 countries that covers over 80 percent of agricultural production. The econometric results show heterogenous effects from various subsidy instruments depending on the choice of productivity measure. Regression results suggest a strong positive effect of input subsidies on both output growth and labor productivity. A positive but relatively small impact of output subsidies is found on output growth only. Subsidies that are mostly decoupled reveal no significant impact on any of the productivity measures. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity; agricultural technology; econometrics; globalization; input output analysis; subsidies |
| Date: | 2024–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140668 |
| By: | Zorbas, Christina; Resnick, Danielle; Jones, Eleanor; Suri, Shoba; Iruhiriye, Elyse; Headey, Derek D.; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob; Arndt, Channing; Menon, Purnima |
| Abstract: | Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2), Zero Hunger, by 2030 is in jeopardy due to slowing and unequal economic growth, climate shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict, lackluster efforts toward investing in food system sustainability and agricultural productivity growth, and persistent barriers to open food trade. Nevertheless, numerous commitments to achieving SDG 2 have been repeatedly expressed by Heads of State and Ministers at diverse global meetings since the SDGs became a focus in 2015. To identify the intensity and degree of convergence of commitments that national governments have collectively made to realizing SDG 2, this paper provides a qualitative assessment of statements from more than 68 global meetings and 107 intergovernmental commitment documents since 2015. Analyzing these commitments against seven critical factors necessary for impact at scale, we find that stated intentions to solve the global food security and hunger challenge have become more pronounced at global meetings over time, especially in the wake of the crises. However, the intent to act is not consistently matched by commitments to specific actions that could help accelerate reductions in hunger. For instance, while increased financing is often recognized as a priority to reach SDG 2, few commitments in global fora relate to detailed costing of required investments. Similarly, many commitment statements lack specificity regarding what and how policy interventions should be scaled up for greater action on SDG 2 or the ways to enhance different stakeholders’ capacities to implement them. While horizontal coherence was mentioned across most global fora, it was only present in about half of the commitment statements, with even less recognition of the necessity for vertical coherence from global to local levels. Despite global acknowledgement of the importance of accountability and monitoring, usually by way of progress reports, we find few consequences for governments that do not act on commitments made in global fora. We discuss the implications of these findings and offer recommendations for how to strengthen the commitment-making process to help accelerate actions that can reduce food insecurity and hunger and augment the legitimacy of global meetings. This work can inform the policy advocacy community focused on SDG 2 and those engaged in catalyzing and supporting intergovernmental action on other SDGs. Our findings reiterate the importance of attention to global governance and the political economy of global meetings—which is necessary to strengthen our focus on delivering outcomes that put the world on a path that brings the solution to the problems of global hunger and food insecurity within reach. |
| Keywords: | food security; diet; accountability; food policies; hunger; governance; nutrition |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:138946 |
| By: | Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.; ElDidi, Hagar |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is highly dependent on irrigated agriculture for employment, income generation and food security—around 90 percent of all food production relies on either surface or groundwater irrigation. The growing dependence of agriculture but also industries and the drinking water sector on groundwater has led to the overexploitation of groundwater resources and, in some areas, to the deterioration of groundwater quality. Fiscal incentives for solarization of irrigation/drinking water pumps are likely to further increase water withdrawals and make water governance more complex. To understand the perspectives of groundwater users, a qualitative study was conducted in the alluvial groundwater systems of Punjab as well as the hard rock systems of Balochistan. Interviews with key informants at federal, provincial, and district level were also conducted to capture insights from additional decisionmakers affecting groundwater management and governance. The study identified a series of challenges around groundwater management and use, including overexploitation of groundwater resources, worsening groundwater quality raising serious health challenges, lack of communities’ participation in decision making, particularly women, non-availability of actionable data, weak enforcement of laws and regulations relating to groundwater governance, and partisan decision-making driven by political influentials and local bureaucracies. Solarization of irrigation pumps without proper regulatory and monitoring framework is expected to exacerbate groundwater extraction and accelerate water stress. The study strongly suggests an urgent need for not only integrated water management at all levels with equitable distribution of water resources but also to engage local communities and other stakeholders, including women in water conservancy awareness campaigns, groundwater quality monitoring, and decision-making. Moreover, the management and governance of water, particularly groundwater, must be insulated from political and partisan decision making. It is equally important to look at the quality of groundwater from a wider prism, considering health and water supply, sanitation and hygiene to address the increase in water borne diseases. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; food security; groundwater irrigation; women; employment; governance; Pakistan; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:139604 |
| By: | Bhanjdeo, Arundhita |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade in India, farmer producer organizations (FPOs) have emerged as a means of collectivizing smallholder farmers and providing them access to extension, innovation, and market services. FPOs that center women farmers, traditionally at a disadvantage vis-à-vis their male counterparts in access to resources and extension, can serve to enhance women’s agency and collective action in agricultural value chains. We used 59 key informant interviews and nine focus group discussions to examine the constraints to, and facilitators of, women’s and men’s participation in three women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, an eastern Indian state. Additionally, we study the gender and power dynamics in such FPOs and the potential of collective efficacy to enhance agricultural and empowerment outcomes. The FPO intervention we evaluated was supported by an NGO that provides FPO members with both agricultural and gender-based inputs to improve agronomic practices, market linkages, agricultural yields and profits, and the role of women both within the FPO and within their households and communities. In this paper, we provide contextual insights on ‘what works’ to empower women in this context. Women’s perceptions of the benefits from FPO membership were heterogeneous. Our qualitative analysis suggests a nuanced picture of women’s autonomy and decision-making within and outside their household, further shaped by women’s and men’s perception of shifts in women’s access to resources and services. The emerging lessons provide inputs for development implementers and policymakers to recognize diverse contextual barriers in designing FPO interventions to enable and enhance women empowerment outcomes. The research also contributes to the body of knowledge on local gender norms and understanding of empowerment. |
| Keywords: | agricultural value chains; collectivization; extension; gender; innovation; women’s empowerment; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:145187 |
| By: | Ragasa, Catherine; Ma, Ning; Hami, Emmanuel |
| Abstract: | Many rural producer groups face poor management practices, low productivity, and weak market linkages. An information and communication technology (ICT)-based intervention bundle was provided to producer groups to transform them into ICT hubs, where members learn about and adopt improved management practices and increase their productivity and incomes. The intervention bundle includes phone messages and videos, promotion of the call center/hotline, and facilitation of radio listening clubs and collective marketing. The study, a cluster-randomized controlled trial, randomly assigned 59 groups into treatment groups and 59 into control groups. After 18 months of interventions, results show positive but small impact on crop sales (USD65 per household) and no impact on productivity. The income effect was mainly from Kasungu and Nkhota-kota, which experienced increased production and sales of rice, soybean, and groundnut and received higher prices due to collective marketing. Farmers in Kasungu and Nkhota-kota improved a few agricultural management practices, while farmers in other districts did not improve their management practices. Results show more farmers accessing phone messaging on agriculture and markets, greater awareness and use of the call center, more listening groups established, and more farmers—especially women—joining these groups. Nevertheless, coverage and uptake remain very low, which are likely reasons for the limited impact. |
| Keywords: | markets; Information and Communication Technologies; digital agriculture; digital extension tools; impact assessment; sales; productivity; agriculture; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:148814 |
| By: | Camille Megy (TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | As the global transition toward low-carbon energy systems intensifies, Power-to-Gas (PtG) technology plays a crucial role in converting surplus electricity into hydrogen via water electrolysis. However, scaling up renewable hydrogen production presents environmental challenges, particularly concerning freshwater resources, which are expected to decline due to climate change. While the integration of water considerations has been explored in electricity systems, they have received little attention in the context of hydrogen systems. This article examines how climate-induced water availability constraints affect joint electricity and hydrogen planning. We employ a linear programming model to optimize investment and operating decisions. A regret-minimizing approach is used to compare planning decisions with and without considering water availability constraints. We focus on a French case study at a river basin scale. Results indicate that incorporating climate impacts on water resources leads to increased investments in renewables and PtG capacity, helping offset reductions in hydro and nuclear production and ensuring adequate hydrogen supply during summer. The regret-minimizing approach demonstrates that proactively considering the impacts of climate change on water resources in electricity and hydrogen planning minimizes regrets. This findings highlight the importance of integrating water constraints in energy system models and contribute to the broader dialogue on climate change adaptation planning. |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:cea-05294990 |
| By: | Leah Costlow; Rachel Gilbert; William A. Masters; Flaminia Ortenzi; Ty Beal; Ashish Deo; Widya Sutiyo; Sutamara Noor; Wendy Gonzalez |
| Abstract: | New methods for modeling least-cost diets that meet nutritional requirements for health have emerged as important tools for informing nutrition policy and programming around the world. This study develops a three-step approach using cost of healthy diet to inform targeted nutrition programming in Indonesia. We combine detailed retail prices and household survey data from Indonesia to describe how reported consumption and expenditure patterns across all levels of household income diverge from least cost healthy diets using items from nearby markets. In this analysis, we examine regional price variations, identify households with insufficient income for healthy diets, and analyze the nutrient adequacy of reported consumption patterns. We find that household food spending was sufficient to meet national dietary guidelines using the least expensive locally available items for over 98% of Indonesians, but almost all households consume substantial quantities of discretionary foods and mixed dishes while consuming too little energy from fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds. Households with higher incomes have higher nutrient adequacy and are closer to meeting local dietary guidelines, but still fall short of recommendations. These findings shed new light on how actual food demand differs from least-cost healthy diets, due to factors other than affordability, such as taste, convenience, and aspirations shaped by marketing and other sociocultural influences. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.20203 |
| By: | Benin, Samuel |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of the composition of government agriculture expenditure (GAE) in Africa and estimates the effect of the composition on agricultural productivity using cross-country annual data from 2014 to 2020 and structural equations modeling methods. It includes different specifications of the explanatory variables to assess the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions of the conceptual variables that are hypothesized to affect the composition and pathways of impact of government expenditure. The results show that there is a wide variation in GAE across African countries, and few have achieved the 10 percent CAADP agriculture expenditure target. Most African countries spend much smaller proportions of the national budget on agriculture than the sector’s share in the economy, and total agriculture expenditure seems to be allocated across subsectors according to their relative contribution to the sector’s output, with forestry and fisheries being slightly favored compared with crops and livestock, which dominate the sector. The allocation is also affected by several factors, such as past output and size of the subsector, official development assistance, education, irrigation, and state of agricultural transformation, although there are cross-subsector differences in their influence. There are also subsector differences in the estimated effect of GAE on land productivity: 0.06 to 0.08 for expenditure on the total sector, 0.02 for research, 0 to 0.09 for crops, 0 to 0.08 for livestock, and 0 to 0.07 for fisheries. The lower bound of zero means that the estimated effect is not statistically significant in some of the model specifications, such as whether cross-subsector expenditure effects are considered. We discuss implications of the results and suggestions for future research. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity; agriculture; CAADP; data; expenditure; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:148782 |
| By: | Eissler, Sarah; Rubin, Deborah; de Anda, Victoria |
| Abstract: | This study presents findings from a qualitative research study conducted in Chiapas, Mexico that is one component of a larger activity funded by the Walmart Foundation and implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), titled Applying New Evidence for Women’s Empowerment (ANEW). ANEW seeks to generate evidence from mixed-methods evaluations of women’s empowerment in production and other entrepreneurial efforts at different nodes of agricultural value chains and aims to develop and validate measures of women’s empowerment that focus on agricultural marketing and collective empowerment at the group level, both of which build upon the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). In this report, we present findings of a qualitative study of coffee cooperatives supported by Root Capital in Chiapas, Mexico and how Root Capital engages with them to advance women’s economic empowerment, among other objectives. As part of this study, we aimed to describe the gender dynamics and roles and responsibilities of men and women in the coffee value chain in Chiapas, and the opportunities and barriers faced as a result of these dynamics. This study employed qualitative methods to collect primary data from types of respondents using individual and group interviews. Two coffee cooperatives in Chiapas that work with Root Capital were selected to participate in this study. From June to July 2023, 21 individual interviews and 9 group interviews were conducted with market actors, men and women coffee cooperative leaders, men and women cooperative members and their wives, and Root Capital staff from two municipalities in Chiapas. The data were transcribed into Spanish and then translated into English. These transcripts were analyzed using thematic analysis in NVivo software. A codebook inclusive of inductive and deductive themes was developed to guide the thematic analysis. This study design adhered to best practices for ethical research and received approval from IFPRI’s IRB. Several limitations should be considered when reviewing the findings and conclusions of this study. There exist defined gender roles and divisions of labor at each node of the coffee value chain in Chiapas, and participants often described these roles as expected given social norms or perceived gender-specific limitations of natural abilities that would shape how men or women could engage in different activities. Men and women indicated that while men are in charge of coffee production activities, women do spend time contributing to cleaning and management activities, and that women are heavily involved in the coffee harvest. Both men and women explained that women are responsible for processing activities, which can be time consuming and laborious, but often occur close to the home. Although the coffee harvest activities require physical labor in picking and carrying the baskets of ripened cherries, there is a perception that women cannot participate in other post-harvesting activities, such as transporting bags of coffee, because the lifting is too physically heavy of a task for women. Men are responsible for managing the sale of coffee and directly negotiating with the buyer to the extent that a negotiation happens. In instances when buyers travel to the household as the point of sale, women can participate in sales, typically facilitating the sale under the direction of her husband. However, women still do not lift the coffee bags nor transport the bags for sale. And many coffee producing households prefer to or sometimes need to hire labor to help with coffee harvest activities; they tend to hire men as laborers more out of preference or their availability compared to women. Men and women interviewed for this study also described their perceptions and understanding of empowerment and elements of an empowered person with relation to engaging in the coffee value chain. Overall, while the concept of an empowered person was difficult for both men and women to relate to, they shared perceptions of how relations between men and women had changed over the years. Respecting women’s rights or the perception of respecting women’s rights was more acknowledged at the time of the interviews than in previous years, and it was more common to see men and women both generating incomes for the household. Men and women shared different perspectives regarding attitudes toward intimate partner violence, whereas both acknowledged men often mistreated their wives, but women discussed it as a private matter where men shared concerns over women’s reaction to the mistreatment rather than the mistreatment itself. Varying access to resources limited both men and women farmer’s ability to advance in the coffee value chain, particularly access to credit, which was limited for both men and women in the study areas. Limited access to credit with favorable or reasonable terms limited men’s and women’s ability to hire additional labor on their coffee farm or to purchase machines that would reduce specifically women’s time burdens within the household. Women’s time use is constrained by expectations and normative tasks in ways that men are not constrained. Future research is needed and discussed to better understand these dynamics of gendered roles and relations and elements of empowerment in the coffee value chain in Chiapas. Men and women members of the two respective cooperatives shared differences in how they were able to participate in and benefit from their participation in each cooperative. One cooperative provided more opportunities for members to directly engage in meetings, social activities, and capacity building opportunities whereas the other operated through a more decentralized structure and did not offer opportunities for members to directly participate in decision-making or meetings beyond the representation of their delegate. Members of both cooperatives perceived their cooperatives to be consistent and reliable coffee buyers offering stable prices. The former cooperative was also perceived as a source of support and community for members to advance their coffee production and post-harvesting activities. Both cooperatives also addressed key barriers faced by members, such as providing consistent and reliable pricing. Some members reported that cooperatives offered higher prices than those offered by non-cooperative buyers. Cooperatives also provided transportation options for producers to sell their coffee, which also enables women to have more engagement in coffee sales. However, normative barriers, such as women’s existing time burdens and their need for their husbands’ permission, limits women’s full participation in the cooperatives. Finally, we explored the extent to which Root Capital’s engagement with the cooperatives had supported activities or changes that strengthen women’s empowerment by understanding members and leaders’ perceptions of this engagement. Overall, cooperative members were generally unaware of Root Capital and its engagement with the cooperative. Since Root Capital does not provide direct services to farmers or cooperative members, it was not surprising that many cooperative members were generally unaware of Root Capital and its engagement with the cooperative. However, a few were aware of Root Capital, knowing it had provided their cooperative a loan to purchase and maintain a truck, which was used to reduce barriers faced by producers to bring their coffee to the point of sale and had implications for shifting gender roles to manage coffee sales. Cooperative leaders reflected on the loan that facilitated increased transportation capacity, as well as other benefits from working with Root Capital. However, as Root Capital operates with a client-driven approach, adoption of the Gender Equity Advisory services was limited as these services only became recently available in 2021 and cooperatives opted not to prioritize these until 2023. Therefore, there was limited data to understand how these activities may be influencing cooperative operations, gender dynamics and roles, and perception of women engaged in the coffee value chain at the time of this study. We present several recommendations for areas of future research and considerations for Root Capital to strengthen its approach to gender equity programming. |
| Keywords: | coffee; cooperatives; research methods; value chains; women’s empowerment; gender; collective behaviour; qualitative analysis; Mexico; Americas; Northern America |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140749 |
| By: | Jaqueline Coelho Visentin; Ademir Antônio Moreira Rocha; Marcos Roberto Benso; Eduardo Mario Mendiondo; Eduardo Amaral Haddad |
| Abstract: | This study develops and applies an Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) framework to evaluate the economic impacts of hydrological anomalies on irrigated agriculture productivity across Brazil’s twelve hydrographic regions. The framework integrates three components: (i) an econometric model estimating the sensitivity of irrigated yields to reductions in Blue Water availability; (ii) a set of seven hydrological models projecting Blue Water supply across the twelve hydrographic regions under two climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) between 2015 and 2099; and (iii) a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (B-MARIA-12RH) capturing direct, regional, indirect, and interregional economic effects of productivity shocks under uncertainty. The results show that if the average reduction in Blue Water availability projected under SSP2-4.5 (2015–2099) had affected irrigated agricultural productivity in 2015, Brazil’s real Gross Domestic Product would have declined by approximately -0.0052% (USD 95 million in 2015 values). This effect is mainly driven by a contraction in export volumes (up to -0.0322%) and a reduction in aggregate capital income (up to -0.0101%), disproportionately affecting capital-intensive sectors. Employment losses are most pronounced in S01-Agriculture, including support (-0.0389%), S12-Tobacco products (-0.0342%), S20-Biofuels (-0.0182%), and S09-Refined sugar (-0.0168%). Regionally, the largest contractions in Gross Regional Product occur in HR10-São Francisco (-0.0168%), HR2-Eastern Atlantic (-0.0154%), and HR12-Uruguay (-0.016%), underscoring vulnerabilities in irrigation-dependent territories. By linking physical and economic dimensions of climate change, the proposed IAM framework provides policy-relevant insights into adaptive strategies that strengthen resilience in water-intensive sectors and regions. This study contributes to ecological and climate economics by operationalizing a multi-scale, interdisciplinary modelling approach for evaluating adaptation options. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Climate change; Hydrological anomalies; Economic losses; Integrated Assessment Model; Computable General Equilibrium; Brazil |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:021670 |
| By: | Resnick, Danielle |
| Abstract: | Why is there high variability—both across countries and across different food staples—in the adoption and implementation of large-scale food fortification (LSFF)? A systematic diagnostic of the enabling environment for LSFF can identify key bottlenecks and help to calibrate policy interventions appropriately. This paper delineates the components of such a tool by focusing on two core elements of the enabling environment—political will and implementation capacity—and applies the framework to Madagascar. With more than 75 percent of its population living below the poverty line and almost 40 percent of children under five who are stunted, Madagascar faces major hurdles to addressing malnutrition, including weak consumer purchasing power, recurrent political crises, and frequent climate shocks that undermine agricultural productivity. LSFF has been identified in several national nutrition plans as an option for addressing malnutrition. Yet, thus far, only salt has been fortified at a national scale. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 31 knowledgeable stakeholders in Madagascar in the areas of mandatory fortification of salt, voluntary targeted fortification of infant flour, and fortification of foods for humanitarian assistance, the framework reveals several key priorities. First, weak governance overall affects several dimensions of nutrition and fortification policy, including policy momentum, commitment, and communication. Nutrition interventions therefore need to be calibrated to the country’s broader political risks, incentive structures, and capacities of relevant civil servants. To this end, fortification advocates should go beyond drawing on the expertise of nutrition professionals alone and also engage public sector governance experts as partners in fortification efforts. Second, major priorities for investment include a large-scale micronutrient and consumption survey to update information on micronutrient deficiencies and identify viable food vehicles for mass fortification. Third, an accredited laboratory to test micronutrients is sorely needed in the country to help reduce costs faced by companies who currently send their products overseas for testing and who face competition from counterfeit products. Fourth, financial and technical partners must pursue a multi-pronged lobby approach to overcome high government taxes on imported premix. Fifth, the National Food Fortification Alliance, which serves as a multi-stakeholder platform, requires a sustainable financing model to attract committed leadership and ensure consistent coordination activities. These and other lessons hold policy relevance for other low-income and fragile settings where LSFF is being considered as an option to address micronutrient deficiencies. |
| Keywords: | environment; food fortification; implementation; micronutrient deficiencies; governance; fragility; Madagascar; Africa; Southern Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:141798 |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Hossain, Shahadat; Kabir, Razin; Dorosh, Paul A.; Rashid, Shahidur |
| Abstract: | Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month. One set of simulations tests alternative levels of distribution, finding that cutting distribution to 1 million tons would have minimal effects on the level of rice price stability. Another set of simulations tested different import tariff levels, including the baseline rate of 25%1. We find that lower tariffs result in both lower rice prices and less price instability, as world rice prices tend to be more stable than local prices. Simulating a buffer stock with different price bands shows that a narrow band can achieve high price stability but at a high fiscal cost. A 20 T/kg (USD 0.26/kg) price band generates similar price stabilization at a lower cost compared to current policy. However, it is difficult to set the “right” purchase and sale price, and many simulations result in exhausting reserves or reaching warehouse capacity. An adaptive buffer stock, in which the price is adjusted as the stock runs too low or too high, solves some of these problems. In general, the study finds that current procurement and distribution patterns do not match well with the regional and monthly patterns of surplus and deficit, possibly reflecting multiple and conflicting goals of the public food distribution system. |
| Keywords: | equilibrium; price stabilization; stochastic models; rice; tariffs; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:141799 |
| By: | Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; Minot, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Food trade barriers in many countries are systematically adjusted to insulate domestic markets from world price changes—a response not predicted by traditional political economy models. In this study, policymakers are assumed to minimize the political costs associated with changing domestic prices and deviating from longer-run political-economy equilibria. Error correction techniques applied to domestic and world price data for rice and wheat collected to measure trade policy distortions allow estimation of policy response parameters. The results suggest that systematic short-run price insulation reduces shocks to domestic prices but sharply increases world price volatility and the costs of trade distortions. However, idiosyncratic domestic price shocks resulting from inefficient policy instruments such as quantitative restrictions increase domestic price volatility relative to the magnified volatility of world prices—frequently outweighing the stabilizing impacts of price insulation. This fundamentally changes our understanding of the impacts of price-insulation—from a zero-sum game where some countries reduce the volatility of their prices using beggar-thy-neighbor policies that raise price volatility elsewhere, into one where price volatility rises in most countries. National policy reforms to move away from discretionary, destabilizing policies could lower costs, reduce volatility in domestic and world prices, and facilitate reform of international trade rules. |
| Keywords: | food prices; volatility; consumer economics; trade policies; behaviour; econometric models |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:141800 |
| By: | Ariong, Richard M.; Chamberlin, Jordan; Kariuki, Sarah Wairimu; Van Campenhout, Bjorn |
| Abstract: | Quality upgrading may be lagging in value chains where the assessment and traceability of the quality of the underlying commodity is challenging. In Uganda's southwestern milk shed, a variety of initiatives are trying to increase the quality of raw milk in dairy value chains. These initiatives generally involve the introduction of technologies that enable measurement of key quality parameters at strategic nodes in the value chain, in conjunction with a system that allows for tracking of these parameters throughout the supply chain. In this paper, we use a combination of focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and quantitative data that is generated by these initiatives to document outputs, describe emerging outcomes, and reflect on the potential impact. We find clear evidence that milk quality improved, but the effects on milk prices are more subtle. |
| Keywords: | dairy value chains; raw milk; research methods; technology; Uganda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:149239 |
| By: | Ambler, Kate; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; de Brauw, Alan; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Wagner, Julia |
| Abstract: | A key challenge in systematically collecting data on intermediary agri-food value chain actors is that value chains take the form of a network, with actors linked by a series of transactions. Moreover, we have limited ex ante knowledge about the structure or scale of these networks, which complicates the construction of valid sampling frames and limits traditional random sampling approaches to collect data. To address these challenges, we adapt the respondent-driven sampling approach to collect data on intermediary agri-food value chain actors within their transaction-linked network and implement this approach in the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh. We observe meaningful heterogeneity in the structure and scale of agri-food value chains across commodities and countries. Focusing on traders, we show that the respondent-driven sampling approach generates a larger sample of traders who differ in observable characteristics (i.e., value added, enterprise scale, and financial access) compared to a sub-sample of traders generated in a way that mimics traditional random sampling approaches used to study traders. We conclude by discussing how this respondent-driven sampling approach, applied within transaction-linked networks, can provide a useful data collection method for studying intermediary agri-food value chain actors. |
| Keywords: | data; agrifood systems; value chains; networks; arabica coffee; soybeans; rice; potatoes; Bangladesh; Uganda; Eastern Africa; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:144207 |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | After 1994, everything was a priority, and our people were completely broken. But we made three fundamental choices that guide us to this day. One—we chose to stay together. Two—we chose to be accountable to ourselves. Three—we chose to think big. — His Excellency President Paul Kagame, 20th Commemoration of the Genocide against the Tutsi (April 7, 2014) Rwanda’s socio-economic progress since 1994 has been remarkable. Rwanda is rightly considered a showcase of the enduring power of visionary leadership. Despite remarkable achievements in sustaining high growth, improved well-being, and political stability, Rwanda remains a low-income country characterized by widespread poverty and vulnerability. Subsistence agriculture still prevails, and food security—though progress has been made—remains a distant goal for millions. Today, Rwanda faces the challenge of climate change, which threatens to undermine its hard-won gains unless leadership builds on these achievements to transform agriculture and agri-food to be climate resilient, with sustainable, broad-based productivity and profitability. Such a transformation will not only require, but also drive, the transformation of the entire economy. A tall order, no doubt, but nothing less will suffice to fulfill the leadership’s aspirations for Rwanda to become a middle-income country by 2035 and a high-income country by 2050. If visionary leadership and good governance prevail, Rwanda’s future will indeed be bright. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_41-25 |
| By: | Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.; Chamberlin, Jordan; Sebsibie, Samuel |
| Abstract: | The emergence of rural land rental markets in Sub-Saharan Africa is recognized as a key component of the region’s ongoing economic transformation. However, the evidence base on land market participation relies on survey-derived measures, which do not always cohere when compared and triangulated, suggesting the possibility of non-trivial measurement error. We report the results of a priming and list experiments designed to shed light on a persistent mystery in rural household survey data from Africa: why there are so many fewer self-reported landlords (renters-out) than tenants (renters-in)? Our design addresses two hypotheses using experimental data from Ethiopia. First, rented-out and rented-in land may be systematically underreported because enumerators and respondents are typically primed to emphasize parcels that are actively managed/cultivated by the household. Second, rented or sharecropped-out land may be systematically underreported because of respondents’ reluctance to acknowledge an activity for which public disclosure may have negative repercussions. We address the first hypothesis with a priming experiment by exposing a random subset of respondents to a nudge that explicitly reminded them to fully account for all land, including rented/sharecropped-in and rented/sharecropped-out. We address the second hypothesis with a double-list experiment, designed to elicit true rates of land renting and sharecropping-out. We find that nudging induces about 4 percentage points increase (or 13% in relative terms) in the share of households participating in renting in or sharecropping-in practices but has negligible effects on reported rates of renting and sharecropping-out. Interestingly, our list experiment indicates much higher revealed rates of renting-out (14-15%) than is reflected in the nominal parcel-roster responses (3%). The magnitude of the latter finding fully explains the apparent difference in renting in versus renting-out rates derived from the regular parcel roster responses. These results indicate that efforts to document land market participation rate and associated impacts must overcome large systematic reporting biases. |
| Keywords: | land; households; survey design; surveys; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:144206 |
| By: | Headey, Derek D.; Venkat, Aishwarya |
| Abstract: | Climate change is resulting in increased frequency of extreme weather events, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) already characterized by highly vulnerable malnourished populations. Unsurprisingly, there are many empirical studies of the linkages between extreme weather events and undernutrition, especially stunting and wasting in early childhood, and several existing reviews of this literature. However, the quality of empirical studies in this highly multi-disciplinary literature is uneven, and existing reviews do exhaustively illustrate the potential pitfalls of climate-nutrition analyses. In this more critical review, we therefore have five objectives. First, to map out the existing literature, particularly in terms of the types of dependent and independent variables used, the geographies in which different studies focus their analysis, and the types of statistical methods used. Our second objective is to illustrate the empirical limitations and pitfalls of this literature through a more critical review. Our third objective is to be critically constructive, by developing a checklist of good practices for analytical studies in this literature, which we hope will be formalized and broadly adopted. Our fourth objective is to illustrate the usefulness of these good practices through a deep dive into what we consider an exemplary study in the literature from Blom et al. (2022). Our final objective is to identify possible steps for new types of survey methods and data collection, actions for the adoption of best-practice analytical methods and identify important research questions for future research. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; climate change; nutrition; undernutrition; extreme weather events; stunting; wasting disease (nutritional disorder) |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:138887 |
| By: | Pauline Castaing (World Bank); Jules Gazeaud (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations - French Collaborative Institute on Migration [Aubervilliers]) |
| Abstract: | Index insurance can help smallholder farmers take on more productive risks, but its impacts remain modest, uncertain, and highly context dependent. |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05289219 |
| By: | Jaqueline Coelho Visentin; Marcus André Fuckner; Sérgio Rodrigues Ayrimoraes Soares; Marcela Ayub Brasil; Alexandre Lima de Figueiredo Teixeira; Carlos Alberto Gonçalves Junior; Keyi Ando Ussami |
| Abstract: | Brazil holds approximately 12% of the world’s surface freshwater, positioning it as a water-rich country. However, climate change and growing demand exacerbate water security challenges across Brazilian river basins, placing increasing pressure on economies reliant on water resources. Managing multiple and competing uses in this context is complex, especially in water-scarce regions where priority and non-priority demands must be balanced. Growing attention is therefore directed toward indirect water use embedded in supply chains, as it provides a clearer picture of the sectors and trade flows exerting the greatest pressure on water availability. This study identifies the main direct and indirect contributors to Blue Water withdrawal for consumptive use by estimating Virtual Water and Water Footprints, and evaluates their impacts on quantitative water balance, value added, and employment from a watershed perspective in Brazil. We integrate the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water (SEEA-Water) with an interregional Environmentally Extended Input-Output Model (EE-IOM) at the river basin level, covering 24 economic sectors in 2017 three different regions: for the Grande and Paraíba do Sul Basins and the rest of Brazil. Results reveal significant water stress, with restricted water balances of 13% in the Grande and 9% in the Paraíba do Sul Basin. These critical conditions are primarily driven by Blue Water withdrawals linked to interregional trade, which exerts greater influence on water balance criticality than international trade. In the Grande Basin, 80% of water withdrawals are allocated to exports (50% interregional, 30% international), while in the Paraíba do Sul Basin, 74% of withdrawals support exports (61% interregional, 14% international). Findings also show that water-intensive production and trade generate relatively low value added and employment, underscoring inefficiencies particularly relevant in water-restricted regions. These insights highlight the need for policies that go beyond regulating international trade to also address interregional flows, and to support the design of water pricing mechanisms, sectoral reallocation strategies, and efficiency improvements. By reconciling economic development with sustainable water use, such measures can strengthen resilience and promote equitable growth in Brazil’s water-stressed regions. |
| Keywords: | water; watershed; SEEA; Input-Output Model; Brazil |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:021672 |
| By: | Dominik Naeher; Virginia Ziulu |
| Abstract: | Previous research indicates that zero tillage technology offers a profitable alternative to crop residue burning, with significant potential to reduce agricultural emissions and contribute to improvements in air quality and public health. Yet, empirical evidence on the link between zero tillage adoption and residue burning remains scarce, adding to the difficulties policy makers face in this context. This study addresses this gap by integrating high-resolution satellite imagery with household survey data from India to examine the empirical relationship between zero tillage and residue burning. We compare different methods for constructing burn indicators from remote-sensing data and assess their predictive power against survey-based measures. Our findings reveal a robust negative association between zero tillage and crop residue burning, with reductions in the incidence of burning of 50% or more across both survey data and satellite-derived indicators. By providing insights into optimal geospatial data integration methods, our study also makes a methodological contribution that can inform future research and support evidence-based policy interventions for more sustainable agricultural practices. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.01351 |
| By: | Solomon Hsiang; Marshall Burke |
| Abstract: | Some analyses suggest that drought in Syria during 2007-10 may have contributed to the 2011 onset of its civil war and that anthropogenic climate change had a detectable impact on the severity of that drought. Yet these qualitative statements alone do not allow us to estimate {how much} anthropogenic climate change amplified the risk of civil war in Syria. Climate policy is increasingly relying on global-scale cost-benefit analyses to inform major decisions, and any excess conflict risk imposed on future populations should be considered in this accounting because of its substantial human and economic impact. In order for this excess conflict risk to be accounted for, it must be quantified and its uncertainty characterized. Here we build on multiple recent findings in the literature to construct a best estimate for the excess conflict risk borne by Syria in 2010 that was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. We estimate that the baseline risk of conflict in Syria, which was likely already high, was amplified roughly 3.6% (90% confidence interval: 1.1-7.3%) due to the anthropogenic component of the drought. The effect of climate change was thus discernible but unlikely responsible for the bulk of Syrian conflict risk. Nevertheless, the magnitude of similar excess risk around the globe is expected to grow as climate change progresses, and its human cost could be large because most populations will face positive excess risk. Our approach to quantifying this risk is applicable to these other settings. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02650 |
| By: | Aissatou Ndimblane (Territoires - Territoires - AgroParisTech - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Kassoum Ayouba (Territoires - Territoires - AgroParisTech - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Olivier Aznar (Territoires - Territoires - AgroParisTech - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | We assess the eco-efficiency of French inter-municipal cooperation entities in charge of waste management. We employ a conditional order-m approach to (i) estimate their eco-efficiency considering variables characterizing their environmental context, (ii) evaluate the effect of these contextual variables on the eco-efficiency. Our results demonstrate that the population size, the type of area (e.g., tourist, rural), and the waste pricing systems significantly influence eco-efficiency. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring local waste management policies to the specific characteristics and available resources of each area. They provide valuable insights for local authorities seeking to enhance eco-efficiency and optimize waste management practices. © 2025 The Authors |
| Keywords: | Eco-efficiency Municipal waste management Conditional approach Contextual variables, Municipal waste management, Eco-efficiency, Contextual variables, Conditional approach |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05232549 |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | A generation after the end of Apartheid in 1994, the Republic of South Africa is once again at a critical juncture in its long march to realize Mandela’s vision of a society that enjoys six freedoms: freedom from want, hunger, deprivation, ignorance, suppression and fear. While much has been achieved in advancing these freedoms, much remains to be done. South Africa today continues to grapple with substantial poverty and hunger, high unemployment especially among youth and deep inequities inherited from Apartheid. The government has yet to fulfill the promise of transformative land restitution and land reform. Facing the existential threat of climate change and a significant youth bulge, South Africa’s ongoing struggle can realize Mandela’s vision by seizing the golden opportunity offered by the AfCFTA’s continent-wide markets, while building on its considerable domestic assets such as strong public institutions and high-performing modern subsectors. South Africa’s success or lack thereof in building an inclusive, resilient, and high-growth economy serves as a test case for the strengths and limitations of relying on a market-oriented approach to redress deep socio-economic inequities. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_37-25 |
| By: | Eissler, Sarah; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the Federal Government of Nigeria implemented the Nigeria Value Chain Development Program (VCDP) across six Nigerian states with the objective to improve farmer organizations’ collective efficacy, and alleviate poverty via improving rice and cassava production, farmers’ incomes, and value chain integration. The VCDP incorporated a gender-sensitive design to target women beneficiaries and improve empowerment by expanding access to training, opportunities, and resources. The VCDP also aimed to improve local infrastructure. This study presents qualitative findings from the VCDP impact evaluation. Four communities from two of the six treatment states were selected for this study: Niger and Anambra. Across study areas, sex disaggregated key-informant interview were conducted with 10 service providing agents (technical and capacity building), 8 farmer organization leaders, 14 producers, 13 processors, and 15 marketers. And 8 sex disaggregated FGDs were conducted with members of farmer organizations; 2 FGDs were also conducted with youth-only farmer organizations. Service providing agents found general success in delivering services to beneficiaries and benefitted themselves by working for the VCDP. Agents developed new skills that better enabled them to deliver services, and they benefitted from higher social standings as a result of their work. The VCDP was generally well received and improved target farmer organizations’ collective efficacy. These factors lead to improved rice and cassava production and processing, increasing access to necessary resources for value chain actors, and fostering cross node integration. Beneficiaries found that the different VCDP technical trainings that supported linkages to buyers were particularly useful for improving their outcomes within the value chains. Additionally, VCDP supported infrastructure development positively impacted value chain actors, particularly women, by reducing the time they spent on certain domestic chores and facilitated their ability to better participate in value chain activities. Some challenges persisted. Cultural norms restricted interaction between men and women in Niger state. Weak governance of participating farmer organizations, high levels of corruption, and security concerns that limited mobility and access to remote areas were especially challenging. Beneficiaries also noted that access to suitable financing was a significant challenge; the VCDP is rolling out a new financial linkages component to address this directly in 2020. Finally, beneficiaries were sometimes frustrated with what was perceived as unmet expectations or slow delivery of services by VCDP. In future iterations of VCDP and similar programs, it is recommended to continue strengthening the capacity building services to improve organizations’ collective efficacy, embed anti-corruption measures to ensure all intended beneficiaries have access to program resources, ensure appropriate and timely delivery of services to meet beneficiaries’ needs, and to strengthen the gender component of the program by increasing gender-sensitization trainings for beneficiaries, further targeting women beneficiaries for inclusion, and delivering context-specific solutions that enable all women beneficiaries have equal access to program support and resources. |
| Keywords: | agricultural development; collective action; farmers organizations; value chains; poverty; Nigeria; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:137795 |
| By: | Clément-François Wakwinga Wabenga ((CURDES) - Centre Universitaire de Recherche pour le Développement Économique et Social (CURDES)); Dieu-Merci Kambale Kahandukya ((CERAD) - Centre des Économistes pour la Recherche – Action et le Développement (CERAD)); Paul Senzira Nahayo ((CERAD) - Centre des Économistes pour la Recherche – Action et le Développement (CERAD)) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effect of food taxation on the well-being of Goma households in the context of a security crisis. Using a hypothetico-deductive approach and a computable general equilibrium model on a random sample of 392 households and other secondary sources, it reveals a significant deterioration in well-being: falling real income, high inflation (Fisher index of 1.84), and over-taxation of up to 60% of sales. The indirect utility function shows a decline of USD 36.77, requiring an additional income of over USD 200 per month to maintain the initial standard of living. The study highlights an illegal and oppressive tax system, acting without compensation, and underlines the urgency of tax reforms, pacification of agricultural areas, and policies to support local production to restore market efficiency. |
| Abstract: | Ce papier évalue l'effet de la fiscalité alimentaire sur le bien-être des ménages de Goma en contexte de crise sécuritaire. À partir d'une approche hypothético-déductive et d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable sur un échantillon aléatoire de 392 ménages et d'autres sources secondaires, elle révèle une dégradation significative du bien-être : baisse du revenu réel, forte inflation (indice Fisher de 1, 84), et surimposition allant jusqu'à 60% du chiffre d'affaires. La fonction d'utilité indirecte montre un recul de 36, 77 USD, nécessitant un revenu supplémentaire de plus de 200 USD par mois pour maintenir le niveau de vie initial. L'étude met en lumière un système fiscal illégal et oppressif, agissant sans contrepartie, et souligne l'urgence de réformes fiscales, de la pacification des zones agricoles, et de politiques de soutien à la production locale pour restaurer l'efficacité du marché. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural products, Food taxation, Security crisis, Households, Welfare, Crise sécuritaire Classification, Ménages, Bien-être, Produits agricoles, Fiscalité alimentaire |
| Date: | 2025–07–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05245548 |
| By: | Khalid R Temsamani; Hafsa El Bekri |
| Abstract: | The impacts of climate change are increasingly manifesting through severe and multifaceted loss and damage, particularly across vulnerable regions such as the Mediterranean. These impacts extend beyond environmental degradation, contributing to forced displacement, food insecurity, political instability, and the erosion of human rights and dignity. Furthermore, they reinforce structural inequalities between the Global North and South, thereby challenging global principles of climate justice and equity. This policy brief offers a strategic set of recommendations to address the complex dimensions of climate-induced loss and damage in the Mediterranean region. It synthesizes key insights from a webinar held in October 2024, jointly organized by the Science Policy Platform-Climate (SPP-C) and the Positive Advisory Agenda (P2A), with technical support from ESSEC Business School Africa, and the contribution of the following institutions: the ConnectinGroup International Foundation; the Union for the Mediterranean; the Mediterranean Expert Group on Environmental and Climate Change (MedECC); UNIMED; Moroccan Ministry of Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development; ESSEC Business School Africa; WECEN; ENDA Energy – Senegal. The event, entitled “Strengthening Climate Finance for Loss and Damage within the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), ” served as a platform for multi-stakeholder dialogue and knowledge exchange. The brief proposes an integrated approach anchored in regional cooperation, inclusivity, and innovation. Key policy recommendations included enhancing Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus frameworks to promote systemic resilience; ensuring equitable access to climate finance mechanisms; establishing a dedicated funding stream for loss and damage; and improving science-policy communication channels. Additionally, the brief underscores the vital role of academic institutions in informing evidence-based policies and fostering long-term adaptation capacity. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb33_25 |
| By: | Benito Arruñada; Marco Fabbri; Daniele Nosenzo; Giorgio Zanarone |
| Abstract: | We provide causal evidence on how a community’s formal institutions and social structure jointly affect the value of its land to outside investors. Using field research and a lab-in-thefield experiment in rural Benin, we show that potential urban investors perceive a higher risk of expropriatory collusion among villagers—and thus invest less—when villages lack formal land records and exhibit strong social tightness. We also find that, although formalizing land rights increases the confidence of outsiders, it does not eliminate their concerns about collusion: outsiders remain wary of investing in villages with a tight social structure even with formal property rights, indicating that local collusion continues to pose a barrier to developing impersonal property markets. Our findings therefore suggest that in addition to facilitating intra-community investment and trade (e.g., by formalizing land ownership), well-designed property institutions should also guarantee the impartial treatment of outsiders. |
| Keywords: | Collusion; lab-in-the-field experiment; property rights; randomized control trial; social structure. |
| JEL: | D02 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1917 |
| By: | Bernard Korai; Rémy Lambert; Wajdi Hellali; Stéphanie Sany Kong |
| Abstract: | The issue of awareness, recognition and promotion of the agri-environmental efforts of agricultural producers has been a pressing concern in recent years, at least in public discourse. Faced with societal expectations and demands for exemplary behaviour that they perceive as increasingly high, producers feel that they alone must bear the responsibility for the negative externalities of their agricultural production. To address this perception, the Plan d'agriculture durable (PAD) has focused on creating a compensation programme to reward agricultural producers for the agri-environmental efforts they make. In this study, the authors examine the factors that influence Quebecers' perceptions of the sustainability of their agriculture and how they view the responsibility of the various stakeholders in the agricultural sector in managing sustainability issues designated as high priority. Certain avenues for reflection are suggested in order to better reconcile the practices of agricultural stakeholders with citizens' societal expectations. La question de la connaissance, de la reconnaissance et de la valorisation des efforts agroenvironnementaux des producteurs agricoles constitue un enjeu prégnant ces dernières années, du moins dans le discours public. Devant des attentes sociétales et une exigence d’exemplarité qu’ils jugent comme étant de plus en plus élevées, les producteurs sentent qu’ils doivent porter seuls la responsabilité des externalités négatives de leur production agricole. Pour pallier cette perception, le Plan d’agriculture durable (PAD) a tablé sur la création d’un programme de rétribution visant à indemniser les producteurs agricoles pour les efforts agroenvironnementaux qu’ils déploient. Dans cette étude, les auteurs examinent les facteurs qui entrent en ligne de compte dans la perception que se font les Québécois et Québécoises de la durabilité de leur agriculture et la façon dont ils se représentent la responsabilité des différents acteurs du secteur agricole dans la gestion des enjeux de durabilité jugés prioritaires. Certaines pistes de réflexion sont suggérées afin de mieux concilier les pratiques des acteurs agricoles avec les attentes sociétales des citoyens. |
| Keywords: | Agri-environmental practices, agricultural sustainability, citizens’perceptions and representations, agricultural sector stakeholders, agri-communication, Pratiques agroenvironnementales, durabilité de l’agriculture, perceptions et représentations, acteurs du secteur agricole, communication agricole |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2025rp-21 |
| By: | Francisco B. Galarza Arellano; Jonatan Amaya |
| Abstract: | We study how the interaction between the protective effect of local institutions and the amplifying effect of road infrastructure jointly shape deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon. Using data from 289 districts, we construct a local institutional index via principal components analysis and estimate a Spatial Durbin Model to capture both direct and indirect (spillover) effects on cumulative deforestation between 2001 and 2023. Our results show that stronger local institutions are associated with a 5.51 p.p. reduction in cumulative deforestation, 1 p.p. stemming from a district’s own institutions (direct effect) and 4.51 p.p. from those of neighboring districts (indirect effect). However, this protective role is entirely offset by proximity to paved roads, suggesting that road infrastructure significantly undermines institutional effectiveness. Our findings indicate that effective responses to deforestation cannot rely on isolated local actions. Because institutional spillovers extend across district borders, strengthening local governance requires coordination among municipalities. At the same time, road development—while important for connectivity and growth—can undermine institutional capacity to protect forests if not carefully managed. An integrated policy framework that combines institutional strengthening with strategic infrastructure planning is therefore essential to ensure that road investments reinforce, rather than weaken, collective efforts to curb forest loss. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Institutions, Roads, Amazon, Spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:211 |
| By: | Arianna Agosto (University of Pavia); Alessandro Bitetto (Carlo Cattaneo University-LIUC); Paola Cerchiello (University of Pavia); Yana Kostiuk (IUSS School for Advanced Studies Pavia); Alessandra Tanda (University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new, entirely data-driven, and time-consistent index of environmental performance that relies on a reliable statistical technique to objectively assess environmental sustainability. While most indices depend on expert based or equally distributed weights, the proposed index — the Data-Driven Environmental Performance Index (DDEPI) — is built on empirical data, focusing on variables that account for the largest share of variance in the data over time. To construct the proposed index, we apply a dimensionality reduction technique, such as Robust Principal Component Analysis (Robust PCA), which captures the relationship between variables and countries for each year. The DDEPI is primarily driven by indicators related to air quality, drinking water quality, and biodiversity. An analysis of the causal relationships between the proposed index and country specific dimensions highlights the critical role of institutional quality and natural resource management in achieving sustainability goals. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Performance, Sustainability Index, Data-Driven, Policy Planning, Country Ranking, Robust Statistics |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0230 |
| By: | Molla, Nusrat; Jaiswal, Ruchika; Herman, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Governance is increasingly understood to be a complex system shaped by diverse actors. However, understanding of how these actors interact with the institutions and infrastructure systems in which they are embedded to drive change is still limited. An interdisciplinary approach is needed to understand factors shaping actors' political behavior and how power dynamics influence their ability to create change. This study addresses this gap by combining analysis of actors' narratives about water issues and governance with dynamical systems modeling of the socio-hydrologic system in the context of California's San Joaquin Valley. Through interviews and focus groups with growers, advocacy groups, and rural residents, distinct narratives emerge around water issues and power dynamics. Modeling strategies that would maximize each actor's water access reveals that existing structures incentivize strategies that would mainly benefit larger growers, and thus conflict with the goals of environmental justice narratives. Comparing these modeled strategies with actors' actual strategies also reveals disparities in different actors' ability to pursue the "optimal" strategy. These findings highlight how system structures entrench certain interests as well as the potential of narratives for shaping strategies aimed at long-term transformation. |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ydvk3_v1 |
| By: | Agarwal, Aishwarya; Englander, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | Most African coastal nations prohibit industrial vessels from fishing near their shores; these Inshore Exclusion Zones (IEZs) reserve the most productive locations for small-scale, artisanal fishers. However, previous descriptive research suggests that non-compliance by industrial vessels prevents IEZs from benefiting African economies, food security, and fish stocks. Radar data released in 2024 detect industrial vessels without selection, enabling the first causal evaluation of African IEZs. First, regression discontinuity estimates reveal that 6 of 20 African countries successfully deter industrial fishing vessels (Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mauritania, Ghana, and Guinea). Second, bunching estimators obtain counterfactual vessel distributions that are uncontaminated by spillovers outside IEZ boundaries. Third, extensive‑margin effects are captured by calibrating a discrete choice vessel location model to the bunching estimates. Back‑of‑the‑envelope bioeconomic calculations indicate that IEZs increase annual artisanal fisher catch by 324 thousand tons—enough to meet key micronutrient requirements for 6.3 million people—without reducing industrial catch. |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11222 |
| By: | Allen IV, James |
| Abstract: | Overlap between school and farming calendars—pervasive in agrarian settings—constrains children’s time for both activities, potentially forcing trade-offs between schooling and child labor. Using shift-share estimation, I study an exogenous shift to overlap between school and crop calendars in Malawi, weighted and aggregated by communities’ pre-policy crop shares, matched to panel data on school-aged children. From pre- to post-policy, a five-day (i.e., one school-week) increase in overlap during peak farming periods decreases children’s school advancement by 0.14 grades—one lost grade for every seven children—while only resulting in 3.9 percent fewer children working on the household-farm. Policy simulations show how adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods can be an effective strategy to increase school participation. |
| Keywords: | education; child labour; households; crop production; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:138825 |