nep-agr 2026-03-30 papers

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By:	Xie, Hua; Masso, Cargele
Abstract:	Water is a fundamental input for food production and is used extensively across all agricultural activities, including crop cultivation, livestock production, aquaculture, and food processing. Substantial investments have been made to expand water supply capacity for agriculture, which has made a significant contribution to agricultural production growth (FAO, 2021). At the same time, the intensive use of water in agriculture and related processes creates significant pressures on water resources and aquatic ecosystems. Water scarcity and pollution are among the major water-related challenges associated with global food production, which are directly relevant to SDG 6.
Keywords:	water management; food security; water
Date:	2025–12–31
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:179405

By:	Fasoranti, Adetunji; Kirui, Oliver K.; Popoola, Olufemi; Ali, Samuel; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi
Abstract:	Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.
Keywords:	fertilizers; supply balance; demand; agricultural transformation; nitrogen fertilizers; trade; prices; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa
Date:	2025–12–05
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178596

By:	Abate, Gashaw T.; McNamara, Brian; Bonilla, Juan; Asrat, Daniel T.; Spielman, David J.
Abstract:	Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).
Keywords:	advisory services; agricultural extension; wheat; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa
Date:	2025–12–17
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178949

By:	Abate, Gashaw T.; McNamara, Brian; Bonilla, Juan; Yesigat, Habtamu; Spielman, David J.
Abstract:	Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).
Keywords:	advisory services; dairying; agricultural extension; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa
Date:	2025–12–17
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178948

By:	Balana, Bedru; Abba, Aminu; Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Yakasai, Musa Tukur; Yakasai, Bello; Abdullahi, Kabiru; Shuaibu, Ahmed Usman; Musa, Nuruddeen Muhammad; Kirui, Oliver K.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Ringler, Claudia
Abstract:	Ample evidence shows that small-scale irrigation (SSI) has positive impacts on agricultural productivity, poverty reduction, climate resilience and household food security, nutrition. Despite this, adoption of SSI has remained low in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, where previous research suggests potential for adoption is largest. Factors such as high cost of technologies, farmers’ risk behavior, lack of incentives, and lack of access to finance and capacity gaps have often been noted as key constraints limiting the adoption/scaling of SSI among smallholders. However, in an environment with low overall levels of use, it is important to not only focus on the challenges experienced by smallholder farmers, but also on those of key intermediary actors—specifically government, irrigation equipment distributors, and finance institutions—that are critical for a supportive enabling environment of SSI technology diffusion. To understand the constraints these groups encounter and propose innovative policy, financial, and supply chain solutions, we conducted a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops in three locations in Nigeria. Key solutions proposed during nine workshops include the need for cross-sector coordination and policy harmonization, improved data and digital systems and platforms, customized financial products and risk-sharing options for SSI, capacity-sharing for extension services, and specific strategies to support women farmers so that they benefit equally.
Keywords:	irrigation; small-scale irrigation; government; financial institutions; irrigation equipment; design; Nigeria; Western Africa
Date:	2025–11–26
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:178299

By:	Owuor, Antonate Akinyi; Kramer, Berber; Ceballos, Francisco; Sambo, Kingsley
Abstract:	This project note presents midline findings regarding the effects of Munda Makeover (MMO), a farm makeover TV show designed to disseminate agricultural knowledge to Zambian farmers in an entertaining way. IFPRI and partners designed and implemented a cluster randomized trial across 160 villages involving two main interventions: village screenings of MMO episodes, combined with weekly SMS reminders to watch the show; and agricultural roadshows or input fairs. Results from a phone survey with 976 farmers show that community screenings and SMS reminders significantly increased viewership and knowledge around innovations promoted in the TV show. However, the uptake of agricultural inputs sold during the roadshows remains limited, largely due to liquidity constraints. These findings offer critical insights for optimizing the delivery of agricultural extension content through mass media and improving farmers’ access to agricultural inputs.
Keywords:	capacity building; information; agricultural extension; Zambia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa
Date:	2025–12–15
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178817

By:	Steinhuebel-Rasheed, Linda; Darwish, Maram; Ecker, Olivier
Abstract:	Rural households in many low- and middle-income countries remain highly dependent on agriculture and related value chain activities, making them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As rising temperatures and increasing climate variability reduce agricultural productivity and income stability, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly promoted as a path toward rural development and the transformation of the agrifood systems (AFS). Yet, little is known about whether climate change influences rural households’ decision to start an enterprise to diversify or switch their income sources away from agriculture-related activities in order to adapt to weather risks. We address this research gap by drawing from nationally representative data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2023 and estimating a dynamic duration model to explore how heat stress is linked to households’ likelihood to start a (nonfarm) SME. Our findings offer new evidence for climate-responsive rural policy and SME support strategies in vulnerable regions.
Keywords:	small and medium enterprises; development; climate change; climate change adaptation; food systems; agrifood systems; heat stress; dynamic models; modelling; Egypt; Northern Africa
Date:	2025–12–31
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180550

By:	Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Samuel Chibuzor Umeh; Faith Ani James; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
Abstract:	This paper investigates the relationship between climate change, macroeconomic variables and indigenous livestock production in Nigeria over the period 1981–2023 using fractional integration and multivariate regression methods. More specifically, it examines how temperature and precipitation anomalies, including their nonlinear (squared) effects, agricultural conditions and macroeconomic factors affect Total Indigenous Livestock Meat (TOLIM), Raw Milk of Cattle (RAMOC), and the combined value of Meat and Milk (TOVOMAMI). Climate variables enter the models in levels, while the other variables are first-differenced and log-transformed where appropriate, to ensure stationarity and balanced regressions. The specifications assuming white noise residuals suggest weak and largely statistically insignificant effects of the climate variables on livestock productivity, and also yield some slight evidence of an impact of macroeconomic factors. By contrast, when imposing an AR(1) specification on the error term, negative effects of permanent pasture and exchange rate depreciation on output values are found. These results suggest possible inefficiencies in land use and macroeconomic vulnerability in Nigeria’s indigenous livestock sector. and provide useful information for designing sustainable livestock adaptation policies in low-income economies.
Keywords:	Nigerian indigenous milk and meat production, climate change, fractional integration, multivariate regression
JEL:	C22 Q12 Q54 O13 Q18
Date:	2026
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12566

By:	Kishore, Avinash; Swaminathan, Soumya; Scott, Samuel P.; Avula, Rasmi; Menon, Purnima
Abstract:	Improving diet quality in India is both urgent and achievable, and the cost of inaction is high. The policy entry points identified through stakeholder consultations offer practical ways forward—from implementing front-of-package labeling and restricting ultra-processed food advertisements, to strengthening nutrition behavior change communication in existing safety net programs and making these programs more nutrition-sensitive. India's increasingly diverse food production is creating the supply-side foundation for healthier diets. Policy action should now focus on three key areas: making nutritious foods more accessible and affordable through agricultural policies and social protection programs that enable and incentivize crop and diet diversification; fostering healthier food environments by regulating ultra-processed foods with improved labeling, restrictions on advertising and promotion near schools, and limits on sugar, fat, and salt content; and building sustained demand for diverse, nutritious diets through targeted behavior change communication. Implementation should apply a consistent equity lens: prioritizing lagging geographies and marginalized groups, addressing gendered time constraints through childcare and other supports, and enabling women-led and small enterprises that produce nutritious, convenient foods. Success requires prioritizing cost-effective interventions with demonstrated impact, fostering collaboration across government departments and levels, and leveraging India's growing data infrastructure to ensure interventions reach the most vulnerable populations.
Keywords:	nutrition; diet; food consumption; policies; healthy diets; stakeholders; India; Southern Asia; Asia
Date:	2025–12–22
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:179208

By:	Enoch Ntsiful (Institute of Economics of Barcelona and Department of Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); François Cohen (Institute of Economics of Barcelona and Department of Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.)
Abstract:	Little is known about household-level interventions to strengthen household resilience to food insecurity. Rapid electrification could enable refrigeration and transform how food is stored, prepared, and consumed. We provide the first causal evidence on how access to refrigeration affects food insecurity and dietary quality in a low-income country. Our identification exploits appliance breakdowns, comparing households with functioning and broken refrigerators purchased at the same time and similar prices. Losing access increases food insecurity by one third and reduces consumption of animal-sourced foods, lowering intake of vitamin B12. Refrigeration is an overlooked lever to improve diets and reduce micronutrient deficiencies.
Keywords:	Refrigerator; Food Expenditure; Food Security; Sustainable Cooling; Ghana. JEL classification: I14; I15; Q49; O13.
Date:	2025–12
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202523

By:	Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Balana, Bedru; Rueda, Jorge Armando; Glauber, Joseph W.
Abstract:	This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.
Keywords:	trade; tariffs; food security; food prices; computable general equilibrium models; United States
Date:	2025–11–25
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:178193

By:	Suarez, Ronny
Abstract:	This article synthesizes key adaptation and mitigation practices in rice farming through a Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) lens, with particular emphasis on water management, crop and soil management, nutrient and residue management, and integrated pest management.
Keywords:	mitigation, adaptation, rice, CSA
JEL:	Q10
Date:	2026–01–18
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127768

By:	K. B. Vedamurthy; Manojkumar Patil; Vaishnavi; Priyanka V; Suman L; Ajayakumar; Sagar
Abstract:	India generates substantial volumes of public agricultural data, yet artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in farming remains limited and largely confined to pilot initiatives. This paper examines this gap by assessing India's agricultural data infrastructure against the requirements of AI systems deployed at scale. Drawing on a systematic review of major national datasets and digital initiatives including Soil Health Cards, crop insurance, AgriStack, and selected state platforms we identify persistent structural constraints, including temporal misalignment between data collection and agricultural decision cycles, spatial fragmentation arising from the absence of common geocodes linking soil, weather, and yield information, limited machine readability due to reliance on static data formats, and unclear governance frameworks that restrict data access and reuse. These deficiencies impede cross-dataset integration and automated decision support, with disproportionate consequences for smallholders, who constitute 86~\% of India's farmers and lack the capacity to compensate for weak data infrastructure. Drawing on implementation evidence from India and comparative international experiences, the paper identifies recurring features associated with scalable digital agriculture systems, including incentives linked to data provision, service bundling through local institutions, and sensor-enabled risk management.
Date:	2026–03
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.23289

By:	Suarez, Ronny
Abstract:	Rice cultivation systems in Latin America exhibit substantial heterogeneity driven by geographic, climatic, technological, and institutional factors. These differences shape productivity outcomes, exposure to climate risks, greenhouse gas emissions, and producers’ adaptive capacity. This article provides a system-oriented analysis of the main rice production systems in the region, distinguishing among irrigated, partially irrigated, and rainfed systems, as well as mechanized, semi-mechanized, and traditional production models. It examines how water management, mechanization, cropping intensity, and socioeconomic conditions interact to influence climate vulnerability and the feasibility of adaptation and mitigation strategies. The analysis highlights the importance of differentiated system-sensitive climate-smart agriculture pathways aligned with local production contexts and producer realities across Latin America.
Keywords:	rice systems, irrigated, rainfed
JEL:	Q10
Date:	2026–01–19
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127782

By:	Kariuki, Sarah; Muteti, Francisca N.; Vudriko, Patrick; Ariong, Richard M.; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Chamberlin, Jordan
Abstract:	The Ugandan dairy sector has expanded rapidly in recent years. However, ticks and tick-borne diseases pose increasing challenges to this progress, exacerbated by the rise in resistance to acaricides, the primary method for tick control. This paper examines the systemic constraints that undermine effective, safe, and sustainable tick control in Uganda’s liberalized dairy system. Drawing on multiple complementary data sources—including household surveys, exit interviews, list experiments, and covert audit methods—we show that the de facto farmer-led model of tick control is characterized by failures in information, coordination challenges, imperfect input markets, and weak regulation. Farmers operate with limited technical knowledge and minimal advisory support, and under extensive grazing systems and frequent inter-herd contact that require coordinated approaches to tick control. Input markets provide access to acaricides, but little guidance on proper use. As a result, misuse and overuse of chemicals are widespread, generating risks for animal and human well-being, food safety, and environmental integrity. Addressing these constraints will require integrated interventions that strengthen extension and regulatory capacity, improve accountability in veterinary input markets, and foster community-level coordination to ensure safe and sustainable tick control.
Keywords:	dairy industry; value chains; tickborne diseases; animal diseases; ticks; behaviour; parasite control; acaricides; farm inputs; Uganda; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Date:	2025–12–19
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179187

By:	Hill, Ruth Vargas; Resnick, Danielle
Abstract:	Worldwide, government spending on subsidies in agriculture, fishing, and fossil fuels amounts to a staggering $1.25 trillion annually. Subsidies play a significant role in every country’s fiscal policies, regardless of income level or spending patterns. Spending on energy and agricultural subsidies consistently accounts for 2%-3% of GDP on average across income levels and make the production and transportation of food cheaper. Spending on these subsidies is coming under increasing scrutiny as governments struggle to mobilize additional revenue to meet important development targets amid rising debt distress, dwindling aid resources, and citizen protests against unpopular tax increases. One solution proposed by a growing consensus of voices is to repurpose expensive subsidies towards expenditures that generate higher development benefits. While these subsidies aim to address low agricultural productivity, high food prices, and other critical challenges, their continuing predominance in food system investments raises important questions: Is this an effective way to spend public funds on such a large scale? If not, can some of the money currently going to subsidies be used to finance other needed investments (that may in turn make subsidies themselves more effective) and if yes, what type of investments can they fund? This note explores these questions, focusing specifically on fertilizer subsidies, a major source of government support for farmers, especially in low-income countries, where they comprise a quarter of all subsidy spending (as well as one-tenth of such spending on in high income countries).
Keywords:	fertilizers; prices; subsidies
Date:	2025–12–15
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178861

By:	Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.
Abstract:	Excessive insecticide use in smallholder agriculture can threaten human health and the environment. We evaluate the effects of receiving a genetically modified cowpea variety that confers resistance to the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) using a clustered randomized controlled trial with an encouragement design in Nigeria. We find that farmers who received the pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea with complementary inputs significantly reduce insecticide volumes and report fewer days of insecticide-related illness compared to farmers who only received a conventional cowpea variety. Farmers receiving PBR cowpea alone experience smaller, mostly insignificant reductions. To explore heterogeneous responses, we combine ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) interactions with machine learning-based Causal Forest estimates of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs). Results reveal that smaller, less wealthy, and labor-constrained households experience the largest reductions in insecticide use and health improvements, whereas wealthier farmers or those with higher baseline spraying practices experience lower reductions. Women-managed plots exhibit modestly higher responsiveness. Our findings highlight the importance of moving beyond average effects and seed distribution toward targeted, context-specific interventions that account for behavioral and resource constraints in smallholder farming systems.
Keywords:	insecticides; farmers; health; genetically modified foods; cowpeas; randomized controlled trials; machine learning; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa
Date:	2025–12–18
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179030

By:	Minten, Bart; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet; Masias, Ian
Abstract:	This brief draws on interviews with 51 agro-input retailers across 10 states and regions to assess how falling international rice prices may affect monsoon paddy cultivation in their communities. Key Findings: In May 2025, international rice prices (in real terms) reached their lowest level in the past 15 years, one-third lower than in May 2024. Myanmar’s dual exchange rate system has further depressed local rice prices. In addition to low export prices, rising marketing and processing costs—driven by persistent electricity shortages and transportation challenges—have widened the gap between farmgate prices and end-market prices (both domestic and export). According to informants, fertilizer (urea) prices rose 12 percent, while paddy prices fell by an average of 21 percent (median decline: 29 percent) in May 2025 compared to a year earlier. In response to weaker price incentives, respondents expect monsoon paddy area to decline by 11 percent and fertilizer use to drop by 18 percent compared to the 2024 monsoon season. Expected declines in paddy prices, cultivated areas, and yields are likely to reduce production, lower farm incomes, and increase rural poverty in 2025 - especially concerning given farmers’ relative resilience in recent years. Recommended Actions: To ensure adequate incentives for paddy farmers, the dual exchange rate system should be revised to give exporters—and, by extension, farmers—fairer and more predictable returns. Barriers to efficient domestic trade and processing—such as roadblocks, restrictive regulations, poor transportation infrastructure, and limited access to fuel and electricity—should be addressed to narrow the growing gap between producer and consumer prices.
Keywords:	prices; rice; agriculture; exports; farmers; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia
Date:	2025–06–26
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:175338

By:	Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.
Abstract:	Excessive insecticide use in smallholder agriculture can threaten human health and the environment. We evaluate the effects of receiving a genetically modified cowpea variety that confers resistance to the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) using a clustered randomized controlled trial with an encouragement design in Nigeria. We find that farmers who received the pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea with complementary inputs significantly reduce insecticide volumes and report fewer days of insecticide-related illness compared to farmers who only received a conventional cowpea variety. Farmers receiving PBR cowpea alone experience smaller, mostly insignificant reductions. To explore heterogeneous responses, we combine ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) interactions with machine learning-based Causal Forest estimates of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs). Results reveal that smaller, less wealthy, and labor-constrained households experience the largest reductions in insecticide use and health improvements, whereas wealthier farmers or those with higher baseline spraying practices experience lower reductions. Women-managed plots exhibit modestly higher responsiveness. Our findings highlight the importance of moving beyond average effects and seed distribution toward targeted, context-specific interventions that account for behavioral and resource constraints in smallholder farming systems.
Keywords:	insecticides; farmers; health; genetically modified foods; cowpeas; randomized controlled trials; machine learning; Nigeria; Western Africa
Date:	2025–12–18
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:179030

By:	Tarek, Abdallah; Abdelhadi, Ali; Karachiwalla, Naureen
Abstract:	Digital technologies have rapidly reshaped agricultural systems worldwide, and Egypt is no exception. Over the past decade, the proliferation of smartphones, mobile internet, and low-cost digital tools has opened new channels through which farmers, traders, processors, and aggregators access information and services. Smartphone applications, websites, call centers, and SMS-based platforms now offer advice on crop management, weather and climate alerts, input and output price information, traceability tools, and digital marketplaces. For smallholder farmers—who make up the backbone of Egypt`s agricultural sector—these tools have the potential to reduce information frictions, improve decision-making, and increase productivity and profitability. For larger firms engaged in aggregation, processing, or export, digital platforms can streamline supply chains, enhance coordination, and improve quality assurance.
Keywords:	digital agriculture; digital technology; software development; computer applications; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa; Middle East
Date:	2025–12–05
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178598

By:	Amare, Mulubrhan; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Abay, Kibrom A.; Omamo, Steven Were
Abstract:	Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.
Keywords:	public expenditure; agriculture; youth; migration; data; models; Nigeria; Western Africa
Date:	2025–11–26
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:178300

By:	Wenjing Zhang; Ling Sun; Phu Nguyen-Van (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
Abstract:	This paper investigates the dynamic interactions among global economic policy uncertainty, food prices, and maritime freight rates, focusing on changes in the global food landscape since China's WTO official accession. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV), it analyzes the impacts of economic policy changes, environmental policy, geopolitical risks, and global public health events on food and transportation markets. Additionally, it explores how fluctuations in maritime freight rates may affect food prices and, consequently, global economic development. Finally, the paper offers recommendations for food import and export countries to enhance food security and promote sustainable development in food transport firms.
Keywords:	global economic policy uncertainty, food market, food maritime transport, TVP-VAR-SV, food security
Date:	2026
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05137663

By:	Tsiboe, Francis; Davis, Walker
Abstract:	This brief examines newly released 2026 enrollment data for forage insurance in the Federal Crop Insurance Program, with a focus on the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) program. PRF insures perennial forage used for grazing or haying through a rainfall index that serves as a proxy for forage productivity and drought risk, since grazed forage cannot be directly measured like harvested crops. As of March 19, 2026, PRF enrollment reached 322.54 million acres, up 8.59 million acres from 2025, confirming continued national growth. However, expansion remains slower than the rapid gains observed between 2016 and 2022, suggesting possible saturation in some western states where participation is already high. National penetration increased from 70.9 percent to 72.84 percent, though growth remained uneven across states. The findings indicate that future PRF expansion will depend increasingly on adoption in underinsured regions and on how program rules, incentives, and compliance requirements shape participation.
Keywords:	Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty
Date:	2026–03–20
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:396375

By:	Priyanka V; Geetha Charan; Rohit P Suresh; Thandava Sunkara; Manojkumar Patil; Kartik Sagar; Aashman Trivedi; Soumya K; Subir Paul; Parashuram Hadimani; Ganesh Babu; Ravi Trivedi; Y. Narahari
Abstract:	Carbon farming is the collection of agricultural best practices specifically designed to maximize the capture and long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide in soils and plant biomass, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions from cultivation practices. Carbon farming can be viewed as a promising pathway to simultaneously address climate change mitigation, soil degradation, and farmer welfare. For example, if the entire agricultural cropland in India practices carbon farming, this will spectacularly offset about 50% of emissions from the country's annual transport-sector emissions. However, practical deployment of carbon farming is constrained by scientific challenges, inherent complexity, and fragmented understanding across disciplines. This inter-disciplinary, expository survey offers the first unified treatment of carbon farming for practitioners, policymakers, and researchers. The survey integrates insights from agronomy, soil science, climate science, measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), economics, carbon markets, and policy design. We begin by establishing the conceptual foundations of soil organic carbon dynamics and agricultural carbon sequestration, and compare carbon farming with the paradigms of sustainable, regenerative, and organic agriculture. We then present a comprehensive landscape analysis of carbon-farming best practices, including both generic and crop-specific interventions, and systematically examine their co-benefits and trade-offs. The paper offers a rigorous review of MRV frameworks, emerging digital MRV technologies, and the carbon-credit project life cycle, followed by a structured analysis of voluntary and compliance carbon markets...
Date:	2026–03
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.20674

By:	Cook, Elizabeth A.J.; Ambler, Kate; Hoffmann, Vivian; Otoigo, Lilian Kwamboka; Kiarie, Alice Njoki; Wagner, Julia
Abstract:	Weak enforcement of regulatory standards is widespread in low- and middle-income countries. Low firm capacity and standards inappropriate to local contexts imply that traditional punitive enforcement approaches may be counterproductive. We test the impact of a regulatory oversight intervention leveraging the soft power of meat inspectors in the context of 140 rural slaughterhouses in western Kenya. The intervention focused meat inspector attention on hygiene practices and was combined with training of workers and provision of basic equipment and supplies. Practices improved significantly relative to control facilities, but microbial contamination of meat did not. Outcomes were similar in a subset of treatment facilities where workers were additionally given a hygiene performance incentive. Higher volume of business in treatment facilities, which customers perceived as cleaner, suggests that retailers value less contaminated meat, but may counteract the effects of improved practices through cross-contamination and crowding.
Keywords:	training; regulations; food safety; monitoring; livestock; meat; abattoirs; workers; meat inspection; meat hygiene; vocational training; Kenya; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa
Date:	2025–12–19
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179188

By:	Bortz, Pablo; Toftum, Nicole
Abstract:	Climate change and environmental degradation pose significant risks to commodity-dependent developing economies, yet their macroeconomic and financial implications remain underexplored. We use an environmental stock-flow consistent model to examine how land-use changes driven by agricultural expansion and intensification impact balance-of-payments dynamics, wage and price inflation, and financial stability in agricultural commodity-exporting countries. Exchange rate devaluations and increases in commodity prices boost agricultural output and export revenues, but also lead to increased carbon dioxide emissions and ecosystem degradation, ultimately reducing land productivity. These price changes translate into wage and price dynamics and impact economic activity and constrain investment, raising a policy dilemma: promoting short-term expansion of agricultural exports results in long-term environmental damage and loss of productive capacity. The analysis demonstrates that physical climate risks, such as extreme weather events, directly impact central bank reserve accumulation by disrupting agricultural exports. The impact is not restricted to the trade balance, since portfolio decisions by non-resident investors take into consideration expected dynamics in foreign exchange accumulation. Using Argentina as a case study, the research confirms that climate shocks represent a material risk to monetary policy implementation in commodity-dependent emerging market economies. Addressing these challenges from a monetary policy perspective requires a multidimensional framework, with regulatory policies (such as green credit subsidies and loan loss provisions) complementing other, more structural market developments (such as insurance and future markets) to stimulate green investment, avoid inflationary pressures and maintain banking stability
JEL:	N0
Date:	2026–03–19
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137665

By:	Mahzab, Moogdho; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Karim, Md. Aminul; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Roy, Shalini
Abstract:	Bangladesh's Phase III agricultural mechanization subsidy program (2020–2024) distributed over 35, 000 machines worth BDT 1, 595 crore (USD 163 million), including nearly 9, 000 combine harvesters (CHs) that accounted for 84% of machinery expenditure. Earlier causal econometric analysis suggests that high-allocation CH areas saw 6-13% yield gains, 38-70% lower labor costs, and 12-26% lower production costs. In this note, we explore the distributional consequences of subsidized combine harvesters, particularly along gender lines. As a result of the program, self-employment in agriculture increases by 5.3 percentage points; men shift from wage labor to own-account farm work linked to mechanized operations. Female self-employment in agriculture declines by 2.6 percentage points; overall female employment probability falls by 1.8 percentage points. Unlike men, women do not transition into non-agricultural employment, indicating limited capacity to absorb displaced female workers. Among those who remain self-employed, women increase their time allocation substantially—suggesting that while fewer women participate, those who do work more hours, likely in livestock and fisheries. Foreign migration increases by 6.1 percentage points in high-mechanization areas, suggesting households use freed labor for overseas opportunities.
Keywords:	labour market; gender; impact; agricultural mechanization; subsidies; combine harvesters; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia
Date:	2025–12–17
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178946

By:	Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Popoola, Olufemi
Abstract:	We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.
Keywords:	impact; genetically modified organisms; seed damaging insects; pest resistance; cowpeas; randomized controlled trials; machine learning; smallholders; information dissemination; yields; postharvest losses; profitability; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa
Date:	2025–12–04
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:178553

By:	Hiremath, Arpita; Hoffmann, Vivian; Rao, Manaswini; Shenoy, Ashish
Abstract:	Bovine mastitis, inflammation of a cow’s mammary gland, is estimated to cost Indian dairy farmers approximately 1.5 billion US dollars each year through the reduction of milk production and quality (Banal and Gupta, 2009). Milk production may decrease by as much as 17.5% before any noticeable signs of infection are present (Krishnamoorthy et al., 2021), with even larger losses in the case of clinically observable mastitis (Singh and Singh, 1994). Prevalence of sub-clinical mastitis in India has been estimated at 42% and is increasing with warming global temperatures (Krishnamoorthy et al., 2021; Jingar, Mehla, and Singh, 2014). Farmers in India typically treat animals for mastitis only once clinical signs appear, using broad-spectrum antibiotics that may accelerate development of resistant pathogens (Chauhan et al. 2018; Mutua et al., 2020). Diagnostic methods for mastitis are often expensive, time-consuming, and generally used for retrospective herd-level testing, limiting their effectiveness for preventing economic losses.
Keywords:	capacity building; bovine mastitis; mastitis; qualitative analysis; screening; animal health; udder health; veterinary services; dairy farming; India; Asia; Southern Asia
Date:	2025–12–17
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178947

By:	Mahmoud, Mai; Kurdi, Sikandra
Abstract:	In-kind food aid programs remain prominent world-wide. Targeting in these programs is complex due to potential distortions in consumption. This paper advances the literature by moving beyond poverty-based targeting to address nutritional objectives. Using data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we apply machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze heterogeneity in impacts across nutritional outcomes, aiming to inform targeting based on observable characteristics. We find that such characteristics significantly predict heterogeneity in treatment effects, though relevant predictors differ by outcome and treatment type. Building on recent literature advocating for balancing of deprivation and expected impact, we show that, in our context, the trade-off between targeting the most impacted versus the most deprived households is limited. Instead, the main challenge is prioritizing among competing nutritional objectives. Our findings indicate that ML methods can inform outcome-specific targeting criteria, though these criteria vary across outcomes and are imperfectly correlated.
Keywords:	nutrition; econometric models; food aid; machine learning; targeting; Egypt; Northern Africa
Date:	2025–12–31
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:179370

By:	Hassan, Ganna; Tarek, Abdallah
Abstract:	This policy note summarizes presentations and discussion shared during the workshop held in Cairo on May 25th 2025, as part of the Bridging Evidence and Policy (BEP) seminar series, a collaborative initiative by the Egyptian Food Bank (EFB), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD) which brings together researchers, policymakers, and development practitioners.
Keywords:	climate change; climate-smart agriculture; early warning systems; policies; Egypt; Northern Africa; Middle East
Date:	2025–12–31
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:179367

By:	Abay, Kibrom A.; Wondale, Meseret; Korir, Josphat K.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Araya, Mesele; Breisinger, Clemens
Abstract:	This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.
Keywords:	youth; labour market; structural adjustment; youth employment; agrifood systems; Africa
Date:	2025–12–02
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:178454

By:	Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet
Abstract:	The livestock sector in Myanmar represents a significant component of the national economy, contributing approximately 6 percent to the country’s GDP. Beyond its economic role, the sector provides critical livelihood opportunities for rural households and underpins the supply of animal-source foods (ASF), which are essential for enhancing dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes. A resilient and efficiently functioning livestock sector also generates important multiplier effects, contributing to poverty reduction, employment creation, and overall economic growth (Diao et al. 2024). This note summarizes recent structural and market developments in Myanmar’s livestock industry and examines their implications for ASF price dynamics.
Keywords:	prices; animal source foods; price volatility; livestock systems; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia
Date:	2025–11–19
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178051

By:	Minten, Bart; Aung, Zin Wai; Zu, A Myint; Mahrt, Kristi
Abstract:	This research note examines changes in food prices and their effects on the cost of both common and healthy diets, as well as on the purchasing power of casual wages. Data on food prices and casual wage levels were collected through interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas across Myanmar, conducted between December 2021 and December 2024 as part of the ongoing Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS).
Keywords:	food prices; inflation; remuneration; surveys; Myanmar; Asia; Southern Asia
Date:	2025–07–10
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:175601

By:	Scheer, Antonina; Honneth, Johannes; Hizliok, Setenay; Dietz, Simon; Nuzzo, Carmen
Abstract:	Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) is an investor-led project to develop a free, publicly available, independent tool that assesses countries on climate change. The ASCOR framework is composed of indicators for the transparent assessment of the progress made by countries in managing the low-carbon transition and the impacts of climate change. ASCOR aims to inform, support and facilitate investors’ decision-making on sovereign bonds and enable a more explicit consideration of climate change. The project hopes to facilitate engagement and dialogue between issuers and investors and drive financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation. ASCOR will also enable countries to showcase their improvements on the transition to a low-carbon and resilient future by providing independent and open-source assessments of their targets and policies.
JEL:	N0 F3 G3
Date:	2024–11–05
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137700

By:	Gilles A Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon)
Abstract:	Informal supply chains ensure the circulation of essential goods despite significant local constraints. In rural villages in sub-Saharan Africa, community networks organize the transport of basic foodstuffs despite impassable roads, distant markets, and seasonal supply fluctuations. In urban diasporas in North America and Europe, communities structure the transnational circulation of food, clothing, and cultural products, overcoming limitations in market access and regulatory frameworks. Drawing on the concept of social capital-structural, relational, and cognitive dimensions-the analysis highlights how actors anticipate needs, adjust operations in real time, and maintain the continuity of flows under variable conditions. The illustrations from rural and urban contexts broaden understanding of logistical mechanisms beyond conventional approaches centered on efficiency and optimization. Insights gained from these illustrations suggest pathways for hybrid supply systems that reconcile formal efficiency with local adaptability. By linking anthropology and supply chain management, the article provides an original perspective on how social relationships, local knowledge, and embedded practices shape resilience and operational agility in informal supply chains.
Keywords:	Anthropology, Diasporas, Informal supply chains, Local knowledge, Resilience, Rural networks, Social capital, Urban networks, Agility
Date:	2026–03
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05544012

By:	Fenitra Josiane Rakotondrabearimino (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sarah Audouin (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Holimalala Randriamanampisoa (Université d'Antananarivo); Bruno Salomon Ramamonjisoa (Université d'Antananarivo); Chloé Lecomte (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)
Abstract:	In Madagascar, a wide range of organizations are developing innovation support model. Designed around a theory of change, these mechanisms aim to generate changes through a sequence of interventions or innovation support services (ISS). Impacts production constitutes one of the main expectations of these organizations as well as a central criterion for their evaluation. The effective use of theories of change therefore emerges as a key lever for steering and improving actions to support agricultural innovation. However, few studies have examined the links between the causal structuring of ISS and the effective generation of long-terme change. This paper explores how organizations 2 produce changes in relation to their agricultural innovations support services. Five models, deployed across five distinct regions of Madagascar, are analyzed, reflecting a diversity of contexts, implementing organizations, and innovation situations. Semi-structured interviews with the implementing organizations were conducted to reconstruct their theories of change. The results reveal both regularities and specificities in the ways organizations perceive and pursue change. The regularities mainly concern the interdependent sequence of intermediate changes pursued, regardless of the ultimate objectives. These changes are generated through a diversity of ISS. Technical changes, for instance, are produced not only through technical advice and support services but also through other types of services that complement the diverse needs of innovation producers. Action aiming at institutional change are positioned in later stages of the process, thereby expanding the scope of transformations initiated locally. The type of implementing organization as well as the presence or absence of intermediary beneficiaries appear specific to each theory of change. The identified causal assumptions and external factors largely relate to the capacities of the different actors involved in the model, from implementing organizations to final beneficiaries, including intermediaries who help consolidate change. In perspective, this paper provides new insights to guide organizations in steering and improving their interventions to foster sustainable change accross multiple scales.
Abstract:	A Madagascar, une diversité d'organisations développe des dispositifs d'accompagnement de l'innovation agricole. Conçus autour d'une théorie du changement (TdC), ils visent à générer des changements via une succession d'interventions appelées services support à l'innovation (SSI). La mobilisation efficace des théories du changement constitue un axe de pilotage et d'amélioration des actions d'accompagnement de l'innovation agricole. Or, peu d'études évaluent les liens entre la structuration causale des SSI et la génération effective de changements sur le temps long. Cette communication explore la manière dont les organisations produisent des changements en lien avec leurs activités d'accompagnement de l'innovation agricole. Cinq dispositifs à Madagascar sont analysés couvrant une diversité de contextes, de porteurs de dispositifs et de situations d'innovation. Des entretiens semi-directifs auprès des porteurs des dispositifs ont permis de reconstituer leur TdC. Les résultats ont montré des similitudes dans les séquences de changements intermédiaires visés, quelle que soit la finalité recherchée. Ces changements sont générés pour la plupart à partir d'une grappe de SSI. Les changements techniques sont produits à partir de services d'appuis techniques mais aussi à partir d'autres types de services qui viennent compléter la réponse aux besoins divers des producteurs innovateurs. Les actions visant le changement institutionnel sont positionnées dans des phases avancées du processus permettant d'élargir la portée des transformations initiées localement. Le type d'organisation porteur ainsi que la présence ou non de bénéficiaires intermédiaires sont spécifiques à chaque théorie de changement. En perspective, cette communication fournit un éclairage nouveau permettant aux organisations d'orienter et d'améliorer leur intervention pour viser des changements durables à différentes échelles.
Keywords:	Services Support à l'innovation, Madagascar, innovation agricole, systèmes d'innovation agricole, théorie du changement, organisation agricole, développement agricole, innovation, Chemin d'impact, Théorie du changement, Système d'innovation agricole, Agricultural Innovation System, Intervention, Hypothèses de changement, Impact pathway, Change assumptions, Innovation support service
Date:	2025–12–16
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05484763

By:	Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Hidrobo, Melissa; Hoddinott, John F.; Rakshit, Deboleena; Roy, Shalini
Abstract:	Findings from this study will provide greater insight as to how and why transfer programs have mixed post-intervention effects across different contexts, and how gender and livelihood opportunities may influence these trajectories. These insights will help inform the future design of transfer programs that aim to support sustainable poverty reduction and gender-equitable livelihoods, including to guide modifications tailored to the local context.
Keywords:	social protection; cash transfers; food security; evaluation; consumption; livelihoods; food assistance; Bangladesh; Southern Asia; Asia
Date:	2025–12–31
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:179365

By:	Chugh, Aditi; Resnick, Danielle
Abstract:	Global calls to repurpose agricultural support toward more sustainable and equitable food systems have intensified scrutiny of fertilizer subsidies. While political economy constraints often hinder reform, the exact manifestation of these constraints is rarely examined. To clarify the specific mechanisms at play, this paper systematically reviews peer-reviewed studies from 2000 to 2025 and identifies 38 fertilizer subsidy reform cases across 15 countries. We code political economy factors influencing outcomes at different stages of subsidy adoption and redesign. The analysis shows that ideational factors around self-sufficiency, the private sector, and the social contract, as well as the institutional structures impacting policymaking, are central to successful subsidy introduction. Electoral incentives play a role at both the policy introduction and redesign phases. Yet, political economy factors are not the only prominent drivers. In fact, technocratic considerations about underperformance or corruption became more prominent during redesign efforts but were also present in more than 80 percent of failed cases. This reaffirms that while technocratic factors, including the availability of research and evidence are necessary for subsidy design improvements, they are not sufficient on their own. By distinguishing which political economy factors matter and how they interact with broader policy process dynamics, this study provides a more actionable foundation for anticipating and managing challenges to fertilizer subsidy reforms and repurposing more broadly.
Keywords:	fertilizers; subsidies; reforms; policies; political ecology
Date:	2025–12–31
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180322