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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Shweta Gupta; Gaurav Datt; Shreekant Gupta |
| Abstract: | With an exhausting land frontier, raising agricultural production to meet future global demand for food is highly contingent on higher crop yields. Yet, continued yield growth is increasingly threatened by climate change. This paper presents new evidence on significant effects of climate change on yields across ten major crops for 563 districts of India over half a century. The impacts are larger than those in the literature not only for India, but also relative to global benchmarks. Larger impacts are attributable to our use of a dynamic specification to capture persistence and to making an allowance for nonlinearity of marginal effects. We estimate 1◦C higher temperature reduces the national average all-crop yield by 8%. For individual crops, yield losses are as high as 16% for maize and 19% for pearl millet. For individual districts, they range from under 1% to 39% |
| Keywords: | climate change, agriculture, India, yield loss |
| JEL: | Q54 O13 O53 |
| Date: | 2026–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:paper_1775627283163_892 |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Alphonce, Roselyne |
| Abstract: | Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation. Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050. Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages. Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy. Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders. In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework. In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population: • A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods, • Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains, • A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and • A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production. |
| Keywords: | food systems; urbanization; consumers; food supply; Tanzania; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:178094 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Informal commercialisation of agricultural products is widespread in Colombian food systems. It plays a central role in supporting rural livelihoods and affordable food access, but may limit value creation, create fiscal pressures, and undermine the evidence base for policymaking. This paper examines why small-scale farmers in Colombia rely on informal markets, with particular attention to Afro-Colombian and Indigenous communities. It situates informality within the broader context of rural areas and the structure of the agri-food supply chain. It proposes a characterisation of the main barriers that hinder small-scale farmers’ engagement with formal buyers, drawing on desk research and interviews with government officials, industry stakeholders, community representatives, and academics. It suggests that formal market participation could be facilitated by prioritising the provision of rural public goods, improving data and evidence on informality in food systems, better aligning agricultural policies with producer-financed parafiscal funds, and adopting a demand-driven approach to agricultural policy. |
| Keywords: | Afro-Colombians, Agri-food supply chains, Indigenous, Informality, Small-scale farmers |
| JEL: | O17 Q13 Q18 R11 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:227-en |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The Middle East plays a limited direct role in agricultural production and trade, but conflict in the region has a significant effect on global agriculture. This is because agriculture is energy intensive and closely linked to energy markets through biofuel production. Using the OECD–FAO Aglink-Cosimo model, this study analyses two transmission channels of an oil price shock to global agricultural prices: fertiliser markets and biofuel demand. Results show delayed and moderate increases in agricultural commodity prices, with the strongest impacts in countries highly dependent on imported fertilisers. Temporary increases in biofuel mandates have limited effects on food prices but may increase risks for vegetable oils. |
| Keywords: | Fertiliser, Food security, Oil shock, Partial equilibrium modelling |
| JEL: | C54 Q11 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:225-en |
| By: | Jaleta, Moti; Abate, Gashaw T.; Yirga, Chilot; Kidane, Sisay; Hailu, Mekonnen; Shifa, Abdulaziz; Beyene, Habekristos; Mohammed, Abdu; Mohammed, Belay; Spielman, David J. |
| Abstract: | Although continuous genetic improvement of crops cultivated by smallholder farmers is a well-known route to increasing agricultural productivity, our understanding of varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration in farmers’ fields is limited. Often, the greatest challenge to our understanding lies in the measurement approach (farmer self-reports versus DNA fingerprinting), as well as in the analysis and interpretation of the available data. To address this issue, we explore variety-level data on four main crops (wheat, maize, teff, and common bean) in Ethiopia. We estimate the area-weighted average varietal age (AWAVA) of each crop using data from a nationally representative sample survey of farm households and a unique genotyping dataset based on seed samples collected from the fields of sampled farm households. We also calculate indices to explore the concentration of varieties in farmers’ fields, which serves to substantiate the varietal age analysis. Overall, results show considerable variation in average varietal age across crops, ranging from 12.5 years for wheat to 28.2 years for common bean. Analysis of area shares of individual varieties for each crop indicates that slower varietal turnover (i.e., higher varietal age) is driven by the continued dominance of older varieties, despite the presence of newer varieties in the market. Slow varietal turnover in the presence of new varieties suggests the need for greater investment in the systems and markets through which seed is distributed to farmers. This includes stronger coordination of research and extension activities, improvement of variety-specific popularization and marketing efforts, and continued experimentation in seed sector development in Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | food security; food systems; fortified foods; cereal products; genotyping; DNA fingerprinting; Ethiopia; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:183034 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper examines water risks for agriculture and outlines a typology of tools to support public authorities in anticipating, monitoring and assessing these risks. Agriculture faces multiple water risks including shortage, excess and poor water quality, alongside systemic risks from degraded freshwater systems and a destabilised water cycle. Monitoring and anticipating these risks is critical to sustaining agricultural production and protecting freshwater resources. Given the diverse water risks and decision contexts, the sector requires a suite of tools tailored to different risks and temporal and spatial scales. The relevance of specific tools depends on decisions being taken, with the highest value achieved when tools inform choices with high or irreversible costs. While technological progress is driving rapid tool development, gaps and challenges remain. Public authorities have a central role in promoting a robust data environment, while taking a long-term, holistic perspective to build systemic resilience. |
| Keywords: | Climate, Drought, Extreme weather, Floods, Food systems, Risk assessment tools |
| JEL: | D81 Q15 Q25 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:226-en |
| By: | Kiss, Lívia Benita |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is the dominant economic sector in Africa. Africa is distinguished by a large population working in agriculture, abundant and fertile land for self-sufficient food production, and even surplus production. However, the growth rate of food production and the ratio of those employed in agriculture to the total workforce clearly reflect the poor state of the sector. The main objective of the study is to identify the main problems and obstacles that have contributed to the underdevelopment of African agriculture from the 2010s to 2022, and to find solutions to them. The most determining factors of the continent's agriculture were collected using a PESTEL analysis. Using problem tree analysis, this paper examines the obstacles and problems that hinder the development of agriculture in Africa. It seeks answers to the problems that African governments and farmers should find solutions to in order to safely supply food to the ever-growing population. As a result, a solution tree was created. The development and modernization of agriculture in Africa is absolutely necessary to pave the way for food security and economic recovery. Self-sufficient food production would be the goal, taking into account sustainable development, which would require the identification of key policy areas, education and grassroots development of the sector, as well as curbing corruption and targeting subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401274 |
| By: | Suproń, Błażej; Łącka, Irena |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to assess the impact of the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural production in the Visegrad countries. The study used monthly data for the 2005-2022 period. Based on a literature analysis, key variables affecting agricultural production that were disrupted by the pandemic were identified. In the second step, the FGLS model was used to establish causal relationships between the variables studied and agricultural production. The ARIMA model was then used to determine the difference between the expected and actual production values during the pandemic. The results indicate that variables such as household final consumption expenditure, agricultural exports and imports, and inflation significantly impact agricultural output. At the same time, disruptions in these areas harmed the sector. The analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular the lockdown policy, led to a permanent loss of agricultural production of 4.5% in the countries studied. Another substantial pandemic effect was high inflation, which shows a non-linear effect on agricultural production. The findings suggest that in the event of similar socio-economic disruptions, policymakers should support domestic consumption of agricultural products and pursue policies that ensure price stability. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401272 |
| By: | Roman, Monika; Žáková Kroupová, Zdeňka; Trnková, Gabriela |
| Abstract: | A well-integrated agricultural market is a precondition for the sustainability of agri-food systems since it contributes to optimal resource and product allocation and encourages specialization according to comparative advantage. The aim of the paper is to assess the processes of spatial price transmission in the milk market of Central European countries. This paper extends previous studies on the spatial integration of the milk market by providing a regional analysis of four Central European countries by examining the effects of distance, borders, and specialization on price transmission. Germany as the main milk producer in the European Union (EU) and the original member of the EU represents the base country for our analysis. The econometric analysis of the regional monthly raw milk prices reveals that the German regions, with the leading position in milk prices formation in Central Europe, together with the Czech and Slovak regions, can be regarded as a single milk market where prices tend to converge in the long run. In contrast, the Polish regions are still poorly integrated internally and externally. The perishability of the commodity coupled with the small size of the Polish farms means that farmers cannot easily switch to other, e.g., foreign buyers. This hinders price adjustment and is reflected in the economics of Polish dairy farms, whose profitability is low. Policymakers should, therefore, aim to equalize the market powers of agricultural producers and milk processors, e.g., by supporting the integration of dairy farms into producer organizations and sales cooperatives. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Dairy Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401269 |
| By: | Weremczuk, Arkadiusz Stanisław; Malitka, Grzegorz |
| Abstract: | The main objective of the study is to characterize the market in terms of asymmetry between the dynamic increase in imports and the less pronounced increase in exports from Poland, with particular emphasis on various categories of agricultural products. The research methodology involves the analysis of trade data from Eurostat and a comprehensive review of scientific and specialized literature. The comparative analysis is centered around categories such as cereals, vegetable oils, meat, and dairy products. Key findings indicate a significant increase in the import of agricultural products from Ukraine, especially corn, coupled with a modest rise in exports from Poland. Additionally, a decline in exports for certain categories suggests that part of production has been retained on the domestic market. The main conclusions emphasize the need for effective strategies to manage surplus agricultural products, including the promotion of alternative markets and the development of diversification initiatives for the agricultural sector. Given the challenges stemming from the war in Ukraine, an appropriate approach to shaping agricultural policy becomes crucial for the sustainable development of the sector. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401273 |
| By: | Rice, Brendan; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | Accurate measurement of the depth of acute food insecurity remains a major gap in current global monitoring systems. While the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identifies the scale and geographic distribution of populations in crisis, it does not quantify the magnitude of food intake shortfalls faced by affected populations. This paper outlines an exploratory data exercise that tests three proxy approaches to estimating food gaps using available IPC and DIEM data. First, we derive back-of-envelope caloric deficit estimates by IPC phase using thresholds from the Household Economy Approach. Second, we assess whether widely used dietary diversity, experiential food insecurity, and coping capacity indicators can serve as proxies for calorie deficits by analyzing their cross-indicator correlations. Third, using microdata from FAO's DIEM surveys matched to IPC area phases, we estimate indicator-specific shortfalls using a Foster-Greer-Thorbecke gap framework and translate these into food assistance estimates. The results show that proxy indicators cannot be used interchangeably to estimate caloric shortfalls, reflecting weak cross-indicator correlations consistent with the existing literature. Within-phase heterogeneity is wide and data limitations are substantial. The paper documents these approaches and their limitations as an intermediate step. The paper provides several recommendations for improving data collection that would allow for more reliable food gap estimates using the framework presented in this paper, which in turn could then operationalized for humanitarian agencies to ‘right size’ and better target food assistance to populations facing acute food insecurity. |
| Keywords: | food security; dietary diversity; humanitarian assistance; aid programmes; targeting |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:182633 |
| By: | Mirowska, Zofia; Ziętara, Wojciech |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this study is to assess changes in the structure of farms in Poland after the political and economic transformations initiated in 1989. Changes in the structure of farms and their areas will be presented against the background of selected European Union (EU) countries. The following EU-15 countries were selected: Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Finland, France, Ireland, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Of the countries that joined the EU in 2004, the selected nations were Czechia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Hungary, and in 2007, Bulgaria and Romania. In analyzing changes in the structure of farms in Poland, special attention was paid to the place and role of large- scale farms. The sources of research materials were statistical data and literature. The comparative method was used in the analysis of research materials. The faster rate of increase in labor costs in the national economy and the prices of inputs for agriculture compared to the selling prices of agricultural products caused a decline in the unit profitability of agricultural production. In this situation, farmers reacted defensively by increasing the scale of production, mainly by expanding farm areas, which led to the creation of large-scale enterprises of 100 hectares or more of agricultural land. In Poland, a factor conducive to the creation of such units was the ownership transformation of state-owned farms (PGRs) caused by the political and economic changes in 1989. The current policy towards large-scale enterprises leasing State Treasury land threatens their functioning. Restricting the development possibilities of this group of enterprises is not conducive to improving the structure of farms. It threatens to reduce production and may also cause social unrest because these enterprises are significant employers in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401268 |
| By: | Tsiboe, Francis; Turner, Dylan |
| Abstract: | Crop insurance is widely used to stabilize farm income, yet its effectiveness varies across policy designs. This study evaluates how different Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) policies affect both average farm revenue and year-to-year revenue volatility. Using FCIP records for 11 major crops from 2011-2022, we simulate net indemnities, defined as indemnities minus producer-paid premiums, for 51 policy and coverage combinations and compare outcomes to an uninsured baseline. We find that crop insurance generally improves farm revenues and reduces income variability: on average, a 1 percent increase in net revenue from insurance is associated with a 2.25 percent reduction in interannual revenue volatility. This stabilizing effect is strongest for policies based on verified on-farm outcomes, such as Yield Protection, Actual Production History, and Revenue Protection, which also account for most program participation. In contrast, index-based policies tend to increase revenue variability due to basis risk, as indemnities do not always align with individual farm losses. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401336 |
| By: | Zhao, Kai |
| Abstract: | How do product perishability and market connectivity jointly determine the propagation of climate shocks through food supply chains? Using 6.7 million daily wholesale price observations across 234 markets and 46 products in China (2017–2023) matched to typhoon track data, this paper documents that typhoon exposure raises wholesale prices by 4.1 percent within 100 km, with effects extending to 500 km but concentrated among vegetables. A triple-interaction specification reveals that the price response increases with operational perishability (β̂₁ > 0), decreases with market connectivity (β̂₂ |
| Keywords: | climate shocks, food prices, market connectivity, perishability, supply chain resilience, typhoons |
| JEL: | Q11 Q13 R12 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128712 |
| By: | Kumar, Anjani; Singh, Dhiraj K.; Kumar, Nalini Ranjan |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a nationally representative assessment of changes in women’s work in livestock rearing in rural India using unit-level data from the Time Use Surveys (TUS) 2019 and 2024. By situating the analysis within debates on the feminization of agriculture, the study examines shifts in participation and time allocation in livestock rearing among rural working-age individuals (15–59 years). While women’s participation in economic work increased modestly between 2019 and 2024, this expansion continues to coexist with a persistently high burden of unpaid domestic and caregiving services. Within agriculture, livestock emerges as a relatively more dynamic and gendered domain of work. Using the 2016 International Classification of Activities for Time-Use Statistics (ICATUS), livestock activities are disaggregated into own use and market-oriented livestock activities. Descriptive evidence shows that women’s participation in livestock activities increased from 11 percent in 2019 to 15 percent in 2024, with a particularly notable rise in market-oriented livestock activities across several states and agroecological zones. Although crop husbandry continues to dominate agricultural employment, both incidence and intensity of participation of women in livestock rearing has visibly increased. Regression results indicate a positive and significant year effect for total livestock and livestock activities, but not for livestock own-use activities, suggesting that the observed increase is primarily associated with market-oriented engagement rather than subsistence expansion. Education exhibits a strong negative association with livestock time use, especially for women, indicating that livestock remains a fallback activity under constrained employment options. Gelbach decomposition further shows that changes in age composition and educational attainment account for a substantial share of the explained variation, while monthly per capita consumption expenditure has a stronger and more consistently significant association with women’s livestock time use than men’s. Overall, the findings point to incremental change within a persistently gendered structure of rural time allocation. |
| Keywords: | gender; rural women; women farmers; livestock; livestock production; livestock-raising; feminization; time use patterns; working hours; agricultural practices; India; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:183033 |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi; Balana, Bedru B.; Bawa, Dauda; Edeh, Hyacinth; Shi, Weilun |
| Abstract: | Food loss is a significant source of economic inefficiency in value chains. In many developing countries, including Nigeria, a majority of fruits, vegetables, and other perishable foods are lost after harvest, due in large part to inadequate postharvest handling or low adoption of post-harvest management technologies, particularly cooling technologies such as temperature-controlled transportation and cold storage. To examine the economic impacts of cool transportation connecting vegetable-producing states in northeast Nigeria to large demand centers in Nigeria’s southern regions, we introduced a randomized controlled trial. Cool transportation was found to have a large and statistically significant impact: sales price, revenues, and profits increased substantially for the origin-state marketers. A larger portion of sales price increase at the destination market is attributed to refrigeration, that is, quality preservation through cooling. About 66 percent of this increase comes from cooling, with an additional 34 percent from transportation. An information experiment further showed that improved quality information through labelling that identifies the origin of the produce creates price premiums at the destination market. This implies that significant economic gains can be generated not only from narrowing supply–demand gaps in different markets but also, potentially, through mitigating spatial asymmetric information. |
| Keywords: | food losses; food waste; food preservation; fruits; vegetables; solar energy; evaporative cooling; cooling; cold storage; randomized controlled trials; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:182475 |
| By: | Adam POUPARD |
| Abstract: | This article offers structural definition and comparison of national food social protection systems (SNPSA) in France and Brazil by applying Théret’s (1997) description of social protection systems to the food sector. We describe SNPSA as a mediating force between economic, political, and reproductive orders in the face of the joint commodification of land and food. The analysis shows that the two countries represent two opposing ideal types through an examination of the frameworks mobilized in the formulation of public policies, by combining inductive and structural analysis. France represents a historically weak alliance between the reproductive and political spheres in terms of access to food, whereas in Brazil this constitutes a key basis for legitimizing the actions of the federal government. We explain these differences based on the synchronies and asynchronies of popular and rural social movements. |
| Keywords: | Social protection for Food, France-Brazil comparison, commodification, institutionalization of food policies, Food Security |
| JEL: | P11 P16 P50 P52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-9 |
| By: | Chetana Chaudhuri (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Raktimava Bose (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Sanjib Pohit (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of India's water resources through the construction and application of Physical Supply and Use Tables (PSUT), providing a systematic framework for understanding sectoral water allocation, consumption patterns, and policy implications. Using the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) methodology, we examine water flows across agricultural, industrial, energy, and municipal sectors, revealing critical insights into India's water security challenges. Expectedly, our analysis shows that agriculture dominates water consumption at 859 billion cubic metres (BCM) (81% of total abstraction), with rice alone accounting for 341 BCM, followed by wheat (106 BCM) and sugarcane (70 BCM). The industrial sector consumes 20 BCM, with engineering and pulp-and-paper industries being the largest users, while the energy sector requires 12 BCM, predominantly for coalbased electricity generation. We find that surface water provides 690 BCM and groundwater contributes 239 BCM to total abstraction of 1, 122 BCM. The return flows amount to 1, 053 BCM, indicating substantial potential for wastewater treatment and reuse expansion. The paper demonstrates how water accounting frameworks can inform evidence-based policy formulation, particularly for demand management, pricing reforms, and intersectoral water reallocation. The research contributes to the growing literature on environmental-economic accounting by providing the first comprehensive PSUT analysis for India's water sector, offering a replicable methodology for other developing economies facing similar water stress challenges. |
| Keywords: | Water accounting, Water Supply and Use Tables, SEEA methodology, sectoral water allocation, sustainable water management |
| JEL: | Q25 E16 Q56 Q28 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:188 |
| By: | Geoffrey, Baragu; Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Azzarri, Carlo |
| Abstract: | Potato is the second most important staple crop in Kenya after maize, supporting its food security and providing livelihoods for millions in the value chain, including over 800, 000 smallholder farmers. However, fragmented marketing systems, inadequate post-harvest infrastructure, and limited access to quality inputs constrain the performance of the sector and result in severe post-harvest losses. This qualitative study provides empirical analysis on potato tuber quality among 233 farmers in Nakuru and Nyandarua counties, and among traders six different main markets in Kenya. Our findings establish a baseline for potato quality at the farm-level and in major markets, tracking individual shipments to measure degradation during transit due to lack of crucial market conditions and logistical bottlenecks. Our main results reveal some important elements that need to be addressed. Overall, potato quality is compromised at the farm gate, but this initial damage is dramatically amplified post-harvest, with skin abrasions more than doubling and rotting increasing threefold as produce moves along the value chain. Critically, these losses are compounded by limited quality-based sorting and the inadequate use of storage infrastructure, with negligible adoption of cold storage. The study also demonstrates that local/traditional handling practices and poor infrastructure quality are bigger drivers of loss than transport distance. Our research concludes that most economic losses could be addressed, being the direct result of identifiable failures in infrastructure, handling, access to information, and quality governance throughout the value chain. Most aspects of which can be mitigated with digital tools. Indeed, digital tools can enhance farmer-buyer linkages, promote digital education and advisory services -also through collaboration with Farmer Service Centers, encourage cold storage via digital incentives. These recommendations position digital tools as a catalyst for transforming the potato value chain, both directly and indirectly mitigating post-harvest losses while boosting resilience and incomes. |
| Keywords: | potatoes; quality; surveys; tubers; quality assurance; value chains; Kenya; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:181383 |
| By: | Barczak, Wioleta |
| Abstract: | The main aim of the article is to determine the level and variability of income obtained on EU farms, classified according to the FADN methodology into eight agricultural types, and the share of subsidies for operational activities in the income obtained. The analysis covers the variability of the total number of farms in the EU keeping FADN accounting, their structure, and the level of income obtained in individual types of farming from 2004 to 2022. Absolute and relative increases were used to determine changes in the total number of farms. They showed that from 2004 to 2022, number of farms under FADN observation field decreased by 36%. The next step was to analyze the level of income obtained from the farm. The highest level of income in the examined period was recorded by farms specialized in the breeding of granivores. Then, the average value for a given year, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation were used to assess the level and variability of income in individual agricultural types. From 2004 to 2022, farms specialized in rearing and breeding granivores and mixed farms were characterized by strong variability in the income obtained from a family farm between 2004 and 2022. Average variability in the level of income was observed on farms specialized in rearing and breeding other grazing livestock, which also had the highest share of subsidies for operating activities. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401271 |
| By: | Pasińska, Dorota |
| Abstract: | The aim of the article is to identify changes in the production and export of poultry from Poland and the factors influencing the development of this market. The main methods used to achieve the aim of the study are comparative analysis over time, structure analysis, and correlation coefficient. The study mainly used annual data collected by the Ministry of Finance and Statistics Poland. During the period under study, Poland was self-sufficient in poultry production, which increased, except for 2021, when it decreased, which was primarily caused by the very dynamic transmission of avian influenza in poultry. A progressive process of production concentration is observed in the sector. The share of farms keep- ing the smallest flocks of broiler chickens decreased, and the share of farms keeping the largest flocks increased. Imports of poultry products in relation to exports were small. Production was much higher than domestic market demand. About half of the production was exported. Between 2014 and 2022, poultry meat and offal had the largest share in the export structure. One of the challenges for market development is the greater intensity of avian influenza, which directly or indirectly affects various participants in the supply chain. Therefore, there is a need to create plans for dealing with the appearance of avian influenza in poultry. In the case of export, the consequence of the occurrence of avian influenza in poultry may be the need to change some geographical export directions, which should be included in such plans. It is also necessary to prepare a plan for the management of surplus poultry in the event of a ban on ritual slaughter. The development scale creates a need for systematic research of this sector. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401275 |
| By: | Davis, Kristin E.; Vitellozzi, Sveva; Ronzani, Piero; Azzarri, Carlo; Kinuthia, Dickson |
| Abstract: | Invisible mental strain affects women and men, especially in rural areas. The effects of this strain can influence collective and economic decisions, impacting resilience in low-resource agricultural communities. Using qualitative data collected from focus group discussions with smallholder farmers in Western Kenya, we explored gendered strains of women and men, their social and psychological consequences, and the gender empathy gap. We conducted focus group discussions with 56 farmers and found that expectations of the roles of women and men in the household were clear. The “invisible burden” was present in the pressure to be hardworking and to provide financial means for the family as a man; and to care for the family and farm as a woman. The strain led to stress, worry, and deterioration of mental health, contributing to despondency, isolation, household conflict, and even mental breakdowns. Household members coped with the psychological strain in different ways. Men tended to use avoidance mechanisms, isolate themselves, or turn to alcohol consumption. Women mentioned talking to others about the strain. Both women and men also reached out to other people, took some kind of action, made plans or relied on their faith in God. Both women and men showed empathy toward one another; that is, they recognized the strain and the effects on their spouse. However, women appeared to show more empathy than men. Thus, the breadwinner strain borne by men and the family load borne by women was an important factor in rural areas, affecting household relations and decisions, which can ultimately affect household resilience. Given the negative social and psychological consequences of this invisible burden, mental health literacy trainings, gender transformative approaches, community dialogues, and gender-responsive extension services can be employed to help households to better cope with strain. |
| Keywords: | gender; mental health; mental stress; smallholders; Kenya; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:182634 |
| By: | Turner, Dylan |
| Abstract: | The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025 authorizes the first net expansion of farm base acres since the 2002 Farm Bill. This brief presents county-level estimates of additional base acres for North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. The three states are expected to receive a combined 7.25 million additional base acres representing approximately 24 percent of the 30 million national cap. North Dakota leads with 2.88 million acres, followed by Minnesota (2.21 million) and South Dakota (2.16 million). |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401335 |
| By: | Kargi, Bilal; Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | This study challenges traditional economic models of farm competitiveness by highlighting the underexamined role of legal structures. It argues that a farm's governing structure significantly impacts its ability to thrive in the market. The authors propose a novel framework for assessing farm competitiveness that encompasses three key dimensions: economic efficiency, financial health, and governance effectiveness. This framework is then applied to evaluate various agricultural governing structures in Bulgaria. A multi-layered evaluation system with four pillars is employed to assess competitiveness across these structures. The research reveals a generally positive competitiveness landscape for Bulgarian agriculture, with cooperatives demonstrating the highest level of competitiveness. However, some critical areas for improvement are identified, including low productivity, income, financial security, and adaptation to environmental challenges. The study also finds that a significant portion of Bulgarian farms struggle with low competitiveness. The research emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to address these weaknesses, including public support and improved management practices. Additionally, it highlights the importance of restructuring struggling farms and implementing better management approaches. Furthermore, the study underscores the crucial role of government support in preventing farm closures. Finally, the research reveals that farm size, specialization, market focus, and ecological location all play a role in competitiveness, but the significance of these factors varies depending on the specific governing structure employed. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401270 |
| By: | Łopaciuk, Wiesław; Rembisz, Włodzimierz |
| Abstract: | This article concerns the issue of price sensitivity on the global wheat market, understood as the ratio of the change in prices to the change in the volume of harvests and stocks as supply variables. This sensitivity was investigated using a model approach, applying it to the market as a whole and to exporting and importing countries. To capture the essence of this sensitivity, a simplifying assumption was made about demand as an a priori given variable. The results of the study indicate that with large amplitudes of changes in both the volume of harvests and stocks as well as price levels, the level of price sensitivity, i.e., how prices react in percentage terms to a 1% change in harvests and stocks, is relatively low. At the same time, this sensitivity is greater for harvests than for stocks. The aim of the study is to present general trends in the price sensitivity coefficient. The period of empirical analysis covers almost 60 years. The results of the study are of both cognitive and utilitarian significance, in particular for methods of prediction and forecasting of the market situation and for agricultural policy formulation. It is also a politically important issue at the moment. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401276 |
| By: | Lee, Chad; Bruening, Bill; Green, J.D.; Grove, John; Knott, Carrie; Legleiter, Travis; Ritchey, Edwin; Bradley, Carl; Villanueva, Raul; McNeill, Sam; Montross, Michael; Halich, Greg; Shockley, Jordan; Van Sanford, David; Gardner, Grant |
| Abstract: | The soft red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown in Kentucky provides flour for cookies, cakes, pastries, and crackers and is the fourth most valuable cash crop in the state. Winter wheat has been an integral part of crop rotation for Kentucky farmers. Wheat is normally harvested in June in Kentucky and provides an important source of cash flow during the summer months. Improvements in varieties and adoption of intensive wheat management practices have resulted in dramatically increased wheat yields. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ukynea:401339 |
| By: | Jonatan Andersson (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University); Göran Ulväng (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | This article studies the role of disamenity work in the rural sector in the shift in the urban sector and growth of cities. We focus on the effects of dairy farming, a sector with famously harsh working conditions, in Sweden around the turn of the twentieth century on rural-urban migration, which was extensive at the time. We use several high-quality historical sources in our study. First, to measure dairy farming concentration in a parish, we digitize parts of the 1890 agricultural census which contains parish-level information on the number of cows per cultivation unit. Second, to identify rural-urban migrants, we link young rural individuals across the 1890 and 1910 Swedish censuses. Third, to interpret our results causally, we digitize records of historical farm property subdivisions that predict concentration in 1890. OLS, reduced form, and 2SLS estimates all point in the same direction, that high levels of dairy farming concentration in a parish pushed its residents to cities. We show that the estimates were similar for men and women, but that it was especially the lower classes and landless groups that responded to the treatment. This likely reflects that they were the most likely to perform manual labor on the large livestock farms. Ultimately, our results strongly suggest that preferences against disamenity work in the rural sector contributed to the rise in the urban sector and growth of cities. |
| Keywords: | migration, urbanization, agriculture |
| JEL: | N33 N53 N93 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0303 |
| By: | Keiser, David A; Mazumder, Bhashkar; Molitor, David; Shapiro, Joseph S |
| Abstract: | Since the 1974 Safe Drinking Water Act, the U.S. has spent \$2 trillion to provide safe drinking water, yet drinking water for 10--20 percent of Americans violates standards. We study trends, causes, and consequences of U.S. drinking water pollution, using 266 million readings on 1, 250 pollutants over decades that we obtained from 48 states via dozens of Freedom of Information Act and associated requests. We link pollution to administrative Medicare data on older Americans' health outcomes. Three findings emerge. First, U.S. drinking water pollution has declined rapidly; the share of readings exceeding current health standards fell by half from 2003--2019. Unregulated pollutants declined more slowly. Low-income areas have higher pollution; Black and Hispanic communities have more complex patterns. Second, loans provided by the Safe Drinking Water Act to water systems reduce pollution. At the estimated average loan cost-effectiveness, these loans could eliminate pollution above health standards for \$46 annually per person. Third, these loans reduce mortality rates of older Americans. Although fiscal federalism cautions against federal funding of local public goods with few inter-jurisdictional externalities like drinking water, we estimate large benefits from Safe Drinking Water Act loans. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Drinking water, pollution, health |
| Date: | 2026–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt4gs6358n |
| By: | Justin Quinton (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada); Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, and Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Godwin Olasehinde-Williams (Department of Management Information Systems, Istanbul Ticaret University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the dynamics of household food insecurity in Nigeria using panel data from three waves (2012, 2015, and 2018) of the General Household Survey, situating micro-level evidence within the broader macroeconomic context. This survey is a nationally representative sample of approximately 5000 households that have been surveyed six times across the three waves. We document that the sharp deterioration in food security after 2015 coincided with three major national developments: a steep naira depreciation, a 57.3% increase in the food consumer price index, and a collapse in real food imports from $11.34 billion in 2012 to $4.21 billion in 2018, largely shaped by the 2015 oil price collapse and foreign exchange restrictions on food imports. These indicators highlight a macro-monetary transmission channel through which the oil price collapse and subsequent policy responses amplified retail food price pressures, raising household vulnerability. To identify the distributional impact of these shocks, we employ a difference-in-differences design that exploits the differential exposure of urban versus rural households. Urban households, more reliant on monetized and import-exposed food markets, serve as the treatment group, while rural households, with partial self-provisioning capacity, act as the control. Results reveal a significant post-shock rise in food insecurity across all households, with an additional and statistically robust increase among urban households. These findings clarify the mechanism by which macroeconomic and trade shocks transmit through urban retail markets to household welfare, underscoring the importance of targeted policy responses. By linking national price and trade disruptions directly to household outcomes, the paper offers a concrete evidence-based framework to guide interventions aimed at mitigating the welfare costs of macroeconomic shocks. |
| Keywords: | food insecurity, GHS-P, Nigeria, oil price shock, policy. |
| JEL: | D10 E2 Q17 |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4643 |
| By: | Tsiboe, Francis; Chakravorty, Rwit; Zhao, Hongxi; Turner, Dylan; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | This report documents long-run changes in the size, composition, and structure of the United States Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) from 2006 to 2025. Using administrative records from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency, the analysis examines insured liabilities and net reported acres across the program’s major commodity groupings; field crops, fruits, nuts, vegetables, nurseries, forage, whole-farm coverage, and a residual other-commodities category. Across nearly all commodity groups, insured liabilities have grown faster than insured acres, a pattern consistent with rising insured values and higher coverage intensity rather than broad acreage expansion. Field crops continue to account for most insured liabilities, while specialty-crop coverage displays heterogeneous growth paths shaped by the distinction between tree (stock) and output policies and by differences in product design. Nursery coverage is the only major group whose insured exposure ended the period below its mid-2000s level. The most pronounced structural change is the expansion of the index-based pasture, rangeland, and forage insurance plan, which simultaneously raised insured acres and liabilities and shifted a larger share of program exposure onto weather-correlated, spatially concentrated risk. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcre:401338 |
| By: | Gilbert Mbara (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the dynamics of price discovery between physical spot and financial futures markets for green coffee, a commodity uniquely characterized by the geographical and informational separation of its producers from global financial centers. Using dis-aggregated weekly prices from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) auction and corresponding International Coffee Exchange (ICE) futures, we estimate a vector error correction model to quantify the transmission of information. Our findings reveal that price discovery predominantly occurs in the physical spot market, which accounts for approximately 83% and 88% of the information and component shares, respectively. These results challenge the conventional view that futures markets are the primary locus of price formation for homogeneous commodities and highlight the critical role of local supply-demand fundamentals in a major producing region. The analysis further uncovers heterogeneity in price discovery contributions across different coffee grades, providing novel insights into the micro-structure of agricultural commodity markets. |
| Keywords: | price discovery, information shares, cointegration, coffee futures, Nairobi Coffee Exchange, commodity markets |
| JEL: | C5 C32 C58 C32 E32 Q11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-19 |
| By: | Mario Ortez (Agricultural and Applied Economics) |
| Abstract: | The study found that consumers who try plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) are much more likely to buy them again, showing strong habit formation rather than one-time curiosity. However, households that frequently buy ground beef are significantly less likely to purchase PBMAs, indicating limited crossover from loyal meat consumers. The study also found that PBMAs are often purchased alongside meats like ground turkey, suggesting they complement rather than replace traditional meats in many households. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vpi:aaecrp:aaecrpr2025-01 |
| By: | Michail Tsagris; Vangelis Tzouvelekas (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece) |
| Abstract: | We develop a nonseparable agricultural household model under output price risk to examine whether nominally decoupled income transfers are behaviorally neutral. In the presence of market imperfections and uncertainty, we show that such payments affect production decisions through endogenous wealth, risk, and technology channels. Using a dual certainty-equivalent representation, we derive analytical expressions that characterize how transfers propagate across production and consumption decisions. The framework identifies three mechanisms, an income channel, a wealth-risk channel, and a liquidity/technology channel, through which decoupled payments become partially decoupled. An empirical application to farm-level data from Greece quantifies these effects and shows that decoupled payments generate nontrivial responses in input use, labor allocation, and welfare. The results provide a unified explanation for the observed production effects of decoupled policies and inform the design of ag |
| Keywords: | Decoupled payments; Nonseparable household models; Price risk; Behavioral coupling |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 D81 D13 C51 |
| Date: | 2026–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crt:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Gammans, Matthew; Wang, Ming |
| Abstract: | This blog examines how proposed changes to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit under the One Big Beautiful Bill may reshape incentives in U.S. biofuel markets. Comparing House and Senate proposals, we focus on three key changes: extending the credit’s duration, restricting eligible feedstocks to North America, and removing indirect land-use change (ILUC) emissions from carbon intensity calculations. While these revisions strengthen the competitiveness of domestic ethanol and soy-based renewable diesel, they also raise concerns about investment certainty, exclusion of foreign suppliers, and weakened environmental accounting. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Risk and Uncertainty, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401337 |
| By: | Rice, Brendan; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | The relationship between labor productivity and economic transformation, and their combined impact on labor market dynamics, remains insufficiently understood and highly country specific. This study applies an economywide analytical framework, using Rwanda as a case study, to examine how youth and women’s productivity influence economic growth and structural transformation, and how this transformation process, in turn, affects these groups. The results indicate that labor productivity gains—whether economywide or concentrated among youth—shift growth toward the industrial and service sectors, while growth in the agricultural sector is minimal. Increases in productivity of women’ labor generate more balanced growth across sectors and substantially enhance women’s industrial participation. Productivity gains of youth labor induce stronger structural shifts, as young workers move from agriculture to expanding industrial and service sectors, though this transition partially displaces adult workers. In general, labor income in these simulations rises broadly in line with GDP, with youth and women benefiting most under targeted scenarios. Sector-specific growth strategies yield distinct distributional effects, however: industry-led growth benefits women and adults, while service-led growth favors the versatile youth. Overall, productivity-driven structural transformation in Rwanda fosters welfare gains, although potential trade-offs between inclusiveness across gender and age groups and aggregate economic performance warrant further investigation. In conclusion, policy design in Rwanda should ensure that gains in aggregate economic growth are balanced with inclusive outcomes for women, youth, and adults. |
| Keywords: | labour; labour productivity; gender; youth; economic growth; transformation; Rwanda; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:182847 |
| By: | Gizem Kosar; Ishva Mehta; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Current discussions regarding a bifurcated U.S. economy highlight the increasing economic divide between lower- and higher-income Americans in spending and earnings growth and wealth accumulation. While many households are doing fine and economic activity overall has been expanding at a solid pace, large segments of the population are facing high levels of economic insecurity and financial strain, and consumer sentiment on the whole has dropped to low levels. In this post, we use newly collected data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) to update our 2020 analysis of disproportionate financial hardship experienced during the early pandemic and to investigate recent changes in food insecurity and broader economic strains. We then examine how food insecurity relates to the increase in consumer pessimism. We find a remarkable increase in food insecurity, particularly among lower-educated and lower-income households and households with young children. We document a contemporaneous increase in pessimism among the same groups, along with a sharp decline in job-finding expectations. |
| Keywords: | consumer sentiment; food insecurity |
| JEL: | I31 I32 D12 |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:103312 |
| By: | Dhruv, Dhruv Tyagi |
| Abstract: | India's tiger population has recovered substantially since the launch of Project Tiger in 1973. As per the All-India Tiger Estimation (2022), India's tiger population is estimated at 3, 682 individuals (range: 3, 167–3, 925), reflecting an approximate annual growth rate of around 6% and representing one of the world's most celebrated conservation recoveries. Madhya Pradesh alone hosts 785 tigers across six reserves. This paper asks whether the communities living adjacent to these reserves have shared in the gains. Using district-level data from the National Family Health Survey matched to reserve boundaries across all 51 districts of Madhya Pradesh, I compare welfare outcomes in buffer-zone districts against non-adjacent districts within the same state. Buffer districts display significantly higher child stunting (+5.2 percentage points), lower sanitation access (−10.0 pp), lower use of clean cooking fuel (−9.6 pp), and lower rates of institutional delivery (−5.6 pp). A Difference-in-Differences design exploiting the NFHS panel reveals that stunting declined 9.0 pp less in buffer districts between 2015–16 and 2019–21 relative to comparable districts, suggesting that the rest of Madhya Pradesh improved faster than its conservation frontier. A propensity-score falsification test confirms this divergence is specific to reserve-adjacent communities and is not an artefact of regional demographic variation. These findings are consistent with forest-dependency constraints, restricted land use, and unequal access to public services in buffer zones, and raise the question of whether India's conservation dividend is being distributed equitably. |
| Keywords: | tiger conservation, buffer zones, child nutrition, Difference-in-Differences, India, protected areas |
| JEL: | I15 O18 Q23 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129057 |
| By: | Ruppert Bulmer, Elizabeth N.; Christiaensen, Luc; Farole, Thomas; Lehr, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | Climate change and environmental degradation are accelerating globally, with low-income countries facing especially severe impacts and having limited resources to adapt or invest in mitigation. The global shift toward a sustainable, carbon-neutral development path -referred to as the green transition presents significant opportunities for productivity gains, diversification, and job creation, as well as substantial adjustment costs for firms, workers, and governments. This paper examines how the green transition affects economies and jobs through multiple channels and identifies emerging risks, potential labor market disruptions, new employment opportunities, and policy priorities. |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:208638 |
| By: | Salaudeen, Kamaldeen Oladimeji; Yamauchi, Futoshi; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Aredo, Samson Dejene |
| Abstract: | This study examined the postharvest storage potentials of a solar-powered cool storage and an off-grid, metal-in-wall evaporative coolant. Temperature drop and relative humidity (RH) increase were used to analyze the performance of cooling systems. Tomato (United Trading Company (UTC) variety), orange (Dan Benue variety) and carrot (Orange Chantenay) were obtained from the international fruits market in Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria. The items were sorted and stored in three different storage conditions: room temperature (RT), solar-powered cold storage, and metal-in-wall evaporative cooling systems. Mass loss, color, hardness, total soluble solids and titratable acids, carotenoids, vitamin C, and rate of nutrient degradation were among the quality indicators tested. The study shows that the solar-powered cold storage outperformed all other storage methods across the evaluated parameters; it preserved fruit firmness, significantly reduced the rate of color change, and minimized mass and nutrient losses, outperforming the metal-in-wall evaporative cooling system. For instance, tomato mass losses observed in 24 days were 42.66, 63.79, and 85.45 percent in the solar-powered cold storage, evaporative coolant, and ambient storage, respectively. Economic advantages of the above technologies, however, require careful consideration of investment costs and longer-term durability and benefits. |
| Keywords: | food losses; food waste; food preservation; vegetables; solar energy; evaporative cooling; cold storage; cooling; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:182630 |
| By: | Rymuza, Katarzyna; Bombik, Antoni; Kacprzak, Tomasz |
| Abstract: | Farmers' entrepreneurship in Poland has both a historical and economic basis and stems from personality traits. It is supported by national and EU projects and funding. Legal conditions also favor farmers' entrepreneurial activity. The aim of the article was to analyze the influence of selected factors on the development of entrepreneurship among farmers in Siedlce County (with a high percentage of employment in the agricultural sector), measured by the entrepreneurship index in 2012 and 2022, and to find out which factors had the greatest impact on its development over the course of ten years. The research material consisted of data from thirteen municipalities of Siedlce County as at the end of 2012 and 2022, from Statistics Poland, and municipal offices, as well as the results of surveys in which respondents assessed the change in entrepreneurship development conditions in 2022 compared to 2012. The dependence of the entrepreneurship index on selected variables was assessed using the simple correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression equations. The econometric analysis showed that the entrepreneurship index in both 2012 and 2022 in the municipalities of Siedlce County was shaped by: the number of national economy entities, the share of annual own income per capita, and the share of agricultural tax in the municipalities' own income. The respondents assessed that during the period under study, the share of non-agricultural income in total income increased, while the income situation worsened in relation to 2012 and there was a decrease in income from non-agricultural activities against the income of other occupational groups. Factors that significantly affected the entrepreneurship rate were shown to have changed in the decade under analysis. The overall situation shaping entrepreneurial development has also deteriorated. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:401277 |
| By: | Aslýhan Atabek Demirhan; Saide Simin Bayraktar; Muhammed Bahca; Saide Simin Bayraktar |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma, Ramazan ayinin gida fiyatlari uzerindeki etkisini makro fiyat endeksleri ve mikro duzeyde yuksek frekansli perakende fiyat verilerini birlikte kullanarak detayli bir sekilde analiz etmektedir. Makro fiyat endeksleri kullanilarak elde edilen bulgular, Ramazan ayinin gida fiyatlari uzerinde oncu, es anli ve gecikmeli yukari yonlu baski olusturdugunu gostermektedir. Mikro duzey analizler, Ramazan etkisinin urun gruplari ve market turleri arasinda farklilastigini; islenmemis gida urunlerinde fiyat oynakliginin Ramazan ayinda belirgin bir sekilde arttigini ortaya koymaktadir. Elde edilen sonuclar, Ramazan ayinin sadece mevsimsel bir unsur olarak degil, gida fiyatlari acisindan ongorulebilir ve izlenebilir bir donemsel risk unsuru olarak ele alinmasinin onemine vurgu yapmaktadir. Bu cercevede, Ramazan ayi etkisinin kisa vadeli enflasyon gorunumu analiz edilirken dikkate alinmasi, fiyat gelismelerinin daha saglikli yorumlanmasina katki saglayacaktir. [EN] This study provides a detailed analysis of the effect of Ramadan on food prices by combining macro price indices with high-frequency retail price data at the micro level. Findings related to macro price indices indicate that Ramadan exerts a leading, simultaneous, and delayed upward pressure on food prices. Micro-level analyses reveal that the Ramadan effect varies across product groups and market types, with price volatility increasing significantly for unprocessed food products. The results emphasize the importance of considering Ramadan not only as a seasonal factor but also as a predictable and traceable periodic risk factor in terms of food prices. In this context, taking the Ramadan effect into account when analyzing the short-term inflation outlook will contribute to a more accurate interpretation of price developments. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2604 |
| By: | Johansson de Silva, Sara; Moessinger, Martin; Santos, Indhira Vanessa |
| Abstract: | Countries in Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which are escalating in both frequency and severity, and disrupting human capital—the health, skills, and productivity of individuals— across multiple domains. However, there has been a lack of systematic documentation of these impacts in ECA countries, limiting opportunities for evidence-based policy making. This paper pulls together information on climate change and human development from a variety of sources including news media, humanitarian sources, gray literature and academic research. The evidence collected shows clearly that climate change is leading to adverse health outcomes, disrupting education, reshaping job markets, and driving displacement across ECA, and is affecting vulnerable groups more than others. The paper and its accompanying database represent an initial step in filling this knowledge gap, providing a resource that can support targeted, data-driven policy responses essential to fostering resilient human capital in the region. |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:202713 |
| By: | Albano, Donatella; Billio, Monica; De Bernardo, Gabriella; Gianni, Carlotta; Salvati, Luigi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether firms insure where objective physical risk is highest, in a context where physical climate risk is increasingly priced in capital markets, but insurance coverage remains limited. Using a unique firm-level data on natural catastrophe insurance in Italy matched with high-resolution geospatial indicators for earthquakes, floods, and landslides, we document a weak alignment between risk exposure and insurance uptake. Although higher seismic and hydraulic risk increase the probability of coverage, the economic magnitude of these effects is modest, and no significant relationship emerges for landslide risk. Firm characteristics—particularly size, sector, and legal form—play a substantially larger role than physical hazard exposure in explaining insurance demand. The results highlight a structural disconnect between risk exposure and risk transfer. Despite growing evidence that physical risk affects the cost of capital, insurance uptake remains only weakly responsive to differentiated hazard exposure, pointing to persistent demand- and supply-side frictions in catastrophe insurance markets. |
| Keywords: | Natural catastrophe insurance; Insurance demand; Physical risk exposure; Insurance protection gap; Firm-level data; Earthquakes; Floods; Landslides |
| JEL: | D81 G22 Q54 R19 |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128802 |
| By: | Dennis Guignet; Anna Silva |
| Abstract: | We conduct a meta-analysis of hedonic studies examining the effects of potable water contamination on home values. We assess the robustness of the results to alternative weights, test for publication bias, and estimate meta-regressions to assess price effect heterogeneity. We find that the adverse effects on home values are similar across public versus private water sources, and that declines in home values persist for more than 10 years, on average. When contamination is detected the average decrease in home values is about 4-5%; and this effect increases to a 12-13% depreciation when contamination levels exceed regulatory or health-based standards. Key Words: benefit transfer, drinking water, groundwater, hedonic, housing value, property value, meta-analysis |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:26-06 |
| By: | Marie Sciaccitano (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; OFCE, Sciences Po Paris, France; SKEMA Business School, France) |
| Abstract: | We examine how income growth reshapes the composition of household consumption between green and non-green goods across countries. Using harmonized data on Environmental Goods and Services (EGS) for 138 countries over 1995–2015, we measure green consumption as expenditure on goods and services explicitly designed to prevent or reduce environmental degradation and estimate a non-linear environmental Engel curve. Green consumption behaves as a luxury at low income levels but progressively transitions toward a necessity as income rises. We further show that income elasticities of green consumption are systematically higher than those of non-green consumption, revealing income-driven composition effects in the consumption basket. These non-homothetic demand patterns imply that income growth systematically shifts household expenditure toward or away from goods intended to reduce environmental pressures, with important policy implications. Applying our estimates to a stylized Climate Fund redistribution, we show that accounting for heterogeneous income elasticities changes its predicted outcome. Relative to the homothetic benchmark with unit elasticities, the response of global green consumption remains limited, whereas the increase in global non-green consumption is substantially larger. |
| Keywords: | Measurement of green consumption, income elasticities, environmental Engel curve, luxury & necessity goods and services, climate policy |
| JEL: | E01 E21 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-15 |
| By: | Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)); Gema Aparicio (Independent Researcher (Spain)); María-Isabel Ayuda (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)); Ignacio Belloc (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)); Pablo Delgado (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)); Ángel Luis González-Esteban (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid (Spain)); Raúl Serrano (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | Latin America’s agri-food export trajectory from 1850 to 2024 reveals a long-term pattern of deep global integration, mid-twentieth-century relative decline, and renewed expansion in the early twenty-first century. During the first globalization, the region became a major supplier of agricultural commodities, especially in South America, benefiting from strong complementarity with industrial economies, expanding foreign demand, favorable terms of trade, and falling transport costs. The interwar period disrupted this model: wars, the Great Depression, protectionism, and deteriorating terms of trade exposed the fragility of export-led growth. After 1950, import-substitution industrialization, anti-export policy biases, weak regional integration, and specialization in products with low income elasticity reduced Latin America’s relative weight in world agri-food trade, even as exports continued to grow in absolute terms. Since the 1990s, however, market-oriented reforms, trade agreements, technological change, and especially rising Asian demand have driven an extraordinary export boom. This recent surge has increased the region’s global prominence but has also reinforced dependence on primary commodities, generating a new phase of reprimarization with uneven developmental and environmental consequences. |
| Keywords: | Latin American Economic History, Agri-food exports, Globalizations, Reprimarization, Latin American Economies |
| JEL: | F14 N56 N76 Q17 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2601 |
| By: | Balado-Naves, Roberto; Garcia-Valinas, Marian; Zaporozhets, Vera |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of the EU budget bargaining process across different expenditure sections for each EU member state. The central hypothesis is that the countries may accept lower allocations in one budget section in exchange for higher shares in others. To explore this, we first develop a theoretical bargaining model that captures member states’ preferences across budgetary items. We then empirically test the model using an unbalanced panel dataset covering EU member states from 1976 to 2020, estimating the marginal rate of substitution between different types of expenditure. The results reveal significant trade-offs among certain budgetary items. On average, structural funds emerged as the most valued expenditure category, followed by agricultural and natural resources policies. |
| Keywords: | EU budget; bargaining; agricultural policy; structural funds |
| JEL: | D72 H61 O52 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131796 |
| By: | Liu, Jingshi (Joyce) (Bayes Business School, City St. George's, University of London); Tatavarthy, Aruna Divya (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this research we uncover a tidy=sustainable association, which informs consumers’ evaluations and decisions. Across ten studies (N=2700), we find that consumers judge tidy (versus untidy) places, as well as objects within those places, to be more sustainable. We posit that consumers develop this learnt association because of the link through the multi-faceted concept of minimalism, which encompasses aspects related to aesthetics (as represented in spatial tidiness) and consumption (with impact sustainability outcomes). Supporting this mechanism, we show that spatial tidiness increases perceptions of minimalistic consumption practices—where consumers perceive tidy spaces as reflecting reduced number of possessions and mindful consumption—which in turn increases sustainability evaluations. Importantly, we show that the tidy=sustainable association operates bidirectionally, is amplified among consumers with higher minimalism values, and has downstream consequences on purchase, recommendation, and joint consumption decisions. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability; household; minimalism; aesthetics; consumption |
| JEL: | D10 H31 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_005 |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Rajiv, Sharanya; De Block, Wouter; Ergasheva, Tanzila; Maertens, Miet; Mardonova, Mohru; Van Hoyweghen, Kaat |
| Abstract: | Labor migration is often driven by a need for income, and can also be motivated by a desire for higher earnings. A naïve assumption is therefore that an increase in local livelihood alternatives might reduce outmigration, something which has been found to hold true in some settings, but not in others. This study employs a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 408 rural respondents in Tajikistan—a country heavily reliant on remittances from abroad—to assess whether specific local income-generating opportunities, such as those offered through cash-for-work programs or through the provision of additional farmland, might affect stated preferences regarding migration. The study explores trade-offs between local income generating opportunities (wage employment, access to farmland, and irrigation infrastructure) and migration restrictions, i.e., hypothetical constraints on household members migrating abroad for a given duration. We rely on stated rather than revealed preferences to examine these trade-offs. Our findings lend some support to the idea that households are willing to accept outmigration restrictions in return for improved local income-generation opportunities, either through wage employment or own-farming. Yet, findings are heterogeneous and depend on the households’ current and anticipated reliance on labor migration. |
| Keywords: | migration; livelihoods; land; income transfers; remittances; public works; Tajikistan; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:182632 |
| By: | Di Novi; C.;; Salari; P.; |
| Abstract: | Sugar-sweetened beverages are a major source of free sugars in Western diets. In response, several European countries have introduced taxes to encourage product reformulation and reduce consumption. This study assesses how these taxes affected sales in off-trade and on-trade markets, examines consumers’ potential substitution effects using Euromonitor data (2004–2019), and evaluates manufacturers’ reformulation responses through Mintel product -launch data (2010–2019). We focus on six countries that implemented such taxes, specifically Belgium, France, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom , and additionally analyse Denmark, which introduced a similar tax earlier and repealed it in 2014, providing a reverse test case. Using a synthetic control approach, we construct counterfactual scenarios to estimate tax impacts. We find significant sales effects only under progressive tax designs, while reformulation emerged consistently, particularly where sugar thresholds and implementation timelines were clearly defined. |
| Keywords: | sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); unhealthy diets; excise taxes; fiscal policy; consumption patterns; food industry; reformulation;synthetic control method; public health; |
| JEL: | H2 H3 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:26/07 |
| By: | Collins, Matthew; Dempsey, Seraphim; Griffin, Míde; Finan, Olivia |
| Abstract: | Clemens et al. (2018) examine the impact of the exclusion of Mexican immigrant workers, known as braceros, from US agricultural labour markets in the 1960s. The explicit goal of this policy was to boost wages and/or employment for local agricultural workers by decreasing labour supply. The authors present a theoretical framework which argues that this policy may not have the desired impacts if firms can adjust capital inputs in response. Their main finding is that there is no effect of the bracero exclusion on the wages or employment of local agricultural workers. They provide evidence of increased mechanisation in response to decreased labour supply. We conduct a computational and robustness reproduction of the main results presented in Clemens et al. (2018). Using the reproduction package provided by the original authors, we successfully computationally reproduce the main results. Our robustness reproduction comprises three distinct robustness checks. We test the sensitivity of the results to changing the base year used to define treatment. We implement a more recently proposed difference-in-difference estimators in the presence of a continuous treatment variable. Finally, we change how missingness is dealt with in one outcome variable-domestic seasonal employment. Our results do not provide compelling evidence to challenge the findings of the original paper. However, we note that large confidence intervals around point estimates make it difficult to draw conclusions of a precise null effect. |
| Keywords: | Reproduction, replication, labour markets, immigration, agriculture, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C18 J15 J18 J22 J31 J43 J61 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:298 |
| By: | Basit, Syed Abdul; Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed |
| Abstract: | his study investigates the perceptions and purchase behavior of Pakistani Generation Z consumers toward Fair Trade (FT) products, addressing a significant gap in the literature given the limited research outside Western economies. The primary objective was to validate the determinants influencing these consumers' perceptions and purchase decisions regarding FT products. We proposed a theoretical framework contending that FT knowledge (FTK) would influence FT Beliefs (FTB) and experience (FTE), these will in turn affect the Attitude Towards FT (FTA), along with Subjective Norm (FTSN), and Moral Obligation (FTMO). These will ultimately affect FT Purchase Intentions (FTPI). The methodology adopted a post-positivist research paradigm, employing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to determine the validity of the conceptual framework and the relationships between variables. The study also conducted a multi-group analysis to explore gender differences in ethical consumption behavior. A total of 350 participants were included in the demographic profile. Key findings reveal that Fair Trade knowledge significantly influences consumer beliefs and experiences. Positive initial experiences, particularly concerning product quality and availability, along with positive beliefs seem to have a positive effect on Attitude Towards FT (FTA), Subjective Norm (FTSN), and Moral Obligation (FTMO). The effect of Attitudes towards FT product purchase intentions is predominantly positive, driven by social consciousness and environmental awareness, with emotional connections playing a crucial role. Subjective norms, especially peer and family influence, significantly impact purchase intentions, with descriptive norms being more influential than injunctive norms. Moral obligation emerged as the strongest predictor of purchase intentions, highlighting the role of personal responsibility in addressing global inequalities. Significant gender differences were observed, with female consumers demonstrating stronger FT knowledge, more positive attitudes, higher moral obligation, and stronger purchase intentions than males. In conclusion, the proposed theoretical model effectively explains the fair trade consumption behavior of Pakistani Generation Z, emphasizing the multifaceted interplay of cognitive, experiential, and moral factors that vary across genders. These insights suggest the need for gender-differentiated marketing strategies to promote Fair Trade product adoption effectively. |
| Keywords: | Pakistani Generation Z, Fair Trade Products, Perceptions, Purchase Behavior, Ethical Consumption, PLS-SEM, Gender Differences |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341057 |
| By: | Femi Oladunni, Opeyemi Afolabi |
| Abstract: | This article examines intergenerational occupational and wealth mobility in rural Spain (1850–1936), a period of major structural change. Using linked household censuses and wealth tax records from La Mancha, it employs transition matrices, intergenerational elasticities, and halving-time estimates to trace long-run mobility dynamics. Occupational mobility was relatively fluid in the late nineteenth century, persistence strengthened during early twentieth-century agricultural expansion, and declined before the Civil War. In contrast, wealth mobility remained highly persistent, with land concentrated within established families. Incorporating maternal literacy into wealth regressions significantly reduces estimated persistence, highlighting the role of intra-household human capital. By distinguishing occupational from wealth trajectories and accounting for maternal influence, the study extends patrilineal models and sheds light on the structural and gendered reproduction of inequality in agrarian Europe. |
| Keywords: | Wealth mobility; Maternal education; Rural institutions; Occupational mobility |
| JEL: | D63 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:50182 |
| By: | Espejo, John Ruel; Garin, Karl Jerome; Organo, Donna Fhel; Santos, Mary Diane; Cruz, Christian Paul |
| Abstract: | CampusBites a Food Ordering System Mobile Application for Faculty and Staff of Pangasinan State University, Alaminos City Campus; addresses the challenges faced by vendors, faculty, and staff in managing food orders by providing a centralized platform for them to operate on, enhancing communication and overall ordering experience within the campus. The existing manual ordering process through the Facebook Messenger often leads to miscommunication, delayed transactions, and difficulty in tracking orders, highlighting the need for a more organized and efficient digital solution. Using the Agile Methodology, the study aims to design and develop a mobile application that provides a centralized platform for food ordering and order management. Data were collected through interviews, observations, and online research providing the researchers with the existing ordering process and challenges the customers face. These methods allowed the team to gather firsthand information from vendors and faculty members, which ensures that the system addresses real pain points such as order accuracy, response time, and ease of use. Purposive Sampling was used to select the participants, with a total of 91 responses from a combination of vendors, faculty, and staff. System performance and user acceptance were evaluated using a Likert-scale survey, which measured key indicators such as functionality, reliability, and user satisfaction. By digitizing and streamlining the food ordering process and improving communication between vendors and faculty, this study contributes to enhanced service at Pangasinan State University Alaminos City Campus. The findings are expected to support the adoption of digital solutions in academic settings, promoting efficiency and convenience within the university community while also serving as a reference model for similar campus-based food ordering systems. |
| Keywords: | Food Ordering System, Ordering, Mobile Application |
| JEL: | M1 M15 O1 |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128906 |
| By: | Gilbert Mbara (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the feasibility of hedging commodity price risk using gap call options within an auction-based market devoid of traditional derivatives. Using a novel, high-frequency dataset from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE), we model spot price dynamics by deriving a Geometric Brownian Motion process from the independent private values paradigm. The estimated model captures the unique microstructure of the NCE, where discrete weekly auctions generate prices characterized by extreme volatility (146.5% annualized). We utilize Monte Carlo simulation to price and evaluate the performance of gap call options for buyers seeking protection against catastrophic price spikes. Our results demonstrate that gap options – characterized by a trigger price higher than the strike – provide superior risk-adjusted returns compared to standard European calls. Our study offers a practical framework for developing tailored risk management instruments in emerging commodity exchanges, and provides empirical evidence for the viability of gap options as a cost-effective hedging tool in high-volatility, institutionally constrained markets. |
| Keywords: | risk management, hedging, commodity price risk, gap options, Nairobi Coffee Exchange, geometric Brownian motion, Monte Carlo simulation |
| JEL: | G11 G13 G32 Q14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-20 |
| By: | Toshitaka Maruyama (Bank of Japan); Fumitaka Nakamura (Bank of Japan); Hiroaki Shirai (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism and the University of Tokyo); Nao Sudo (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | We examine how changes in flood-risk perception influence land prices by analyzing price developments in inundated and nearby areas following Typhoon Hagibis (2019), using parcel-level data, inundation maps, and an event-study approach. Our key findings indicate that land prices in inundated areas declined monotonically after the flood, falling 10% after five years. Furthermore, a distance-decay effect is observed, with non-inundated plots within 100 meters of the flood boundary declining by 5%, whereas effects disappear beyond 800 meters. Price declines differ inside and outside official hazard zones, with larger spillover effects in unaffected areas outside the zones. To clarify the mechanism, we extend the Bayesian belief-updating framework of Bakkensen and Barrage (2022) to account for variations in flood-risk perception arising from temporal lags, proximity to the affected area, and hazard-zone designation. Simulation results based on the model show that three factors explain price changes: delayed adjustment of risk perceptions after the flood, reduced impact of flood risk perceptions with distance from the disaster area, and pre-flood incorporation of flood risk into prices within hazard map zones. |
| Keywords: | Flood Risk; Land Prices; Risk Capitalization |
| JEL: | D83 Q54 R30 |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp26e07 |