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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Jo, Jungkeon; Adjemian, Michael |
| Abstract: | Identifying the causal effect of agricultural production conditions on food prices is challenging because commodity prices respond simultaneously to supply and demand shocks. Exploiting high-frequency field crop futures prices and USDA crop reports, we estimate impacts of agricultural supply news shocks on food markets. A poor harvest news shock that raises field crop prices leads to an increase in food-at-home and food service prices, a decline in food expenditures. Using household-level food price indexes constructed across income quintiles, we find that welfare losses are approximately seven times larger for the lowest-income quintile than for the highest. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, without these shocks, U.S. food inflation during 2021-23 would have peaked up to 1.9 percentage points lower. |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404421 |
| By: | Dong, Fengxia; Hennessy, David |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative, multiyear farm-level data from the 1998–2023 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), this study investigates long-run patterns and determinants of crop diversification in U.S. agriculture. Fractional response logit models estimated for four diversification indicators—the largest crop share, top-two crop share, Herfindahl index, and Shannon index—show that larger farms and mixed crop–livestock operations exhibit higher levels of diversification. The analysis further demonstrates that land ownership, land capability, operator characteristics, and household dependence on farm income significantly influence diversification choices. Interactions among land ownership, farm size, and land capability modify the magnitude and direction of these effects. Warmer growing conditions are associated with greater diversification, whereas extreme heat leads to increased crop concentration. Substantial regional variation in diversification is also observed. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404690 |
| By: | Qiao, Xiyuan; Zhu, Chen |
| Abstract: | Ensuring food security under increasing climate risks has become an important policy challenge. Policy-based agricultural insurance is an important instrument for governments to stabilize agricultural production and enhance farmers' resilience to production risks. China launched policy-based staple grain insurance for rice, corn, and wheat in 2018, covering both full cost insurance and planting income insurance. Based on the staggered implementation of the policy across counties in thirteen major provinces that produce staple grains in China, this paper uses panel data at the county level covering 2010-2023 and employs a staggered difference-in-differences model to estimate the effect of the policy on the acreage of the three staple grains. The policy raises the acreage of the three staple grains of pilot counties by around 8.2 percent, which survives various robustness tests. Extreme climate days positively moderate the policy effect, meaning larger gains in high climate risk regions. The effects are stronger in North China and in counties with less per capita arable land and higher levels of economic development. The findings provide new empirical evidence on how policy-based agricultural insurance promotes land allocation toward staple grain production and have policy implications for food security in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404331 |
| By: | Green, Mark Alan (University of Liverpool); Wilkins, Emma; Gilthorpe, Mark S (University of Leeds); Sawczuk, Thomas; Hardman, Charlotte; Greatwood, Hannah; Stone, Rebecca Ann (University of Liverpool); Johnstone, Alexandra (University of Aberdeen); Morris, Michelle |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Promoting healthier and more sustainable diets is needed to improve population and planetary health. However, limited evidence has described how these intersecting issues vary together by socioeconomic position. Our study uses novel large-scale retailer consumer purchase data, adjusted for known biases, to explore socioeconomic inequalities in health and environmental impacts of food and beverage purchases. Methods: Data were household-level loyalty card records from a major UK supermarket retailer between 24th July and 31st December 2022 (n = 117 710). The health-related outcome was proportion of purchases that were ‘High in Fat, Salt or Sugar’ (HFSS), determined using the UK nutrient profile model. We estimated three environmental outcomes: total greenhouse gas emissions, total land use footprint, and total water use from food purchases. Multilevel regression with post-stratification was used to estimate each outcome measure by level of neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation, adjusted for age, household size, distance to nearest supermarket, and urbanicity. We also described environmental outcomes by food category across level of deprivation. Results: Households residing in the most deprived 10% of areas purchased a larger proportion of HFSS items than households in the least deprived 10% of areas. Households in the least deprived 10% of areas had a greater absolute environmental impact. However, when considered per weight of items, households in the most deprived 10% of areas purchased items that contributed to higher greenhouse emissions per kg but had lower impacts for land use. Soft drinks, ready meals, pasta, and pastry products were identified as key food categories for targeted ‘food swaps’ to reduce environmental inequalities. Conclusions: Our novel application of retailer loyalty card data shows how these data can offer valuable insights for informing strategies to promote healthy, sustainable, and equitable diets. Tackling environmental inequalities in food purchases requires tailoring approaches to different population groups. |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ky62u_v1 |
| By: | Winslow, Jared; Peacock, Jacob Robert (Stanford University); , Jayisha Dhargawe (St. Francis De Sales College); Sherman, Hailey; Green, Seth Ariel (Code Ocean); Mathur, Maya B |
| Abstract: | Plant-based alternative proteins are widely expected to displace meat consumption and, in turn, reorient the global food system away from the externalities of animal agriculture, but little empirical work has assessed these presumed substitution effects in naturalistic settings. Here, we use a dataset of 1.2 million transactions across seven restaurants and eight years to investigate whether introducing modern alternative proteins to restaurant menus reduces purchases of meat-containing dishes. We analyzed effects on total meat purchases and on category-matched purchases, pairing each alternative protein with the meat it emulates; we also estimate individual (within-customer) purchasing changes. Our results from 40 preregistered outcome-exposure pairings are overwhelmingly null, whether pooled across restaurants or stratified by restaurant. These findings challenge the widespread belief that alternative proteins displace meat purchases. |
| Date: | 2026–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tpyk9_v1 |
| By: | Donovan, Christopher; Lawler, Tessa; Loconte, Isabella; Ericksen, Polly; Galford, Gillian; McIntosh, Matthew |
| Abstract: | CONTEXT: Food systems support the nutritional needs and livelihoods of a growing population. Sustainably managing food systems within social and ecological bounds requires accessible and accurate data. Sustainability indicator frameworks provide a structure for curating these data, and regional approaches are particularly relevant for decision making at the state and local levels. OBJECTIVE: To assess data availability, quality, and trends in the Northeast food system, we conducted an inventory and analysis of publicly available datasets representing five dimensions of sustainability. METHODS: Data were sourced from federal, academic, and non-profit repositories, and metrics were selected to best represent the region at the county level. We used correlations and spatial regressions to assess interactions among metrics and trends over time. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We found key gaps in the Economic, Production, and Social dimensions. Some data were only available at state level, while monitoring for some metrics began recently, precluding analysis of trends over time. We identified 62 metrics to represent the framework indicators, but only 31 were available at the county level with multiple time points. Of these, half were improving, and one third were declining. Trends in the Production and Economic dimensions were neutral to positive, while the other dimensions were mixed. SIGNIFICANCE: Access to data is critical in improving regional food system sustainability. The gaps we identified should serve as a road map in developing monitoring programs. The curation of datasets that are consistent, interoperable, and accessible, is crucial in monitoring food systems and developing policies and interventions to support sustainability. |
| Date: | 2026–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gn32f_v1 |
| By: | Mo, Taejun |
| Abstract: | We investigate how climate-induced changes in agricultural productivity will reshape global agricultural trade patterns, and how trade policy mediates these effects. We employ a structural gravity model combining econometric and counterfactual simulation-based analyses using spatially resolved data reflecting anticipated productivity impacts for six major crops. Our analysis yields three main findings: (1) climate change will significantly alter the geography of global agricultural production and trade, (2) trade offers a crucial mechanism through which the impacts of climate change can be mitigated, and (3) trade liberalization can further amplify the role of trade in buffering the economic effects of climate change. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404670 |
| By: | , KuoRayMao; Jin, Shuqin; Yu Hu; Weeks, Nefratiri; Ye, Liangjun |
| Abstract: | As industrialized animal agriculture expanded rapidly in the last decade, the resultant pollution has generated widespread despoliation of natural resources and environmental victimization in rural China. This study examines the formulation and implementation of national environmental regulations from 2014 to 2019 and finds that the juxtaposing ministerial and provincial jurisdictions resulted in conflicting interpretations of the scale and evaluation criteria of the national policy. We argue that the regulations are more than centralized conservation programs designed to reduce environmental pollution caused by the expansion of animal husbandry. Instead, these regulations are fundamentally state-led rural development initiatives that utilize the designations of ecological protection zones to reconfigure land use and promote scale-up production in agricultural structural adjustment initiatives. The enforcement of these environmental regulations, therefore, constitutes a treadmill of law (ToL) that accelerated the geographical specialization and function intensification of the Chinese husbandry sector. |
| Date: | 2026–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k2zg6_v1 |
| By: | Gillaizeau, Marc; Gaertner, Jakob; Avdeenko, Alexandra; Al Harun, Abdullah; Anastasia, Aladysheva |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of climate adaptation interventions in coastal areas on household welfare, food security, and shock preparedness. Results indicate that adopting climate-adaptive livelihoods increased household income by 43%, improved food security, and enhanced preparedness for extreme weather events, though it had limited impact on women’s decision-making power. Moreover, we show that perceptions are instrumental in the success of adaptation projects. Beneficiaries showed increased concern about the adverse long-term consequences of climate change, which is linked to a greater likelihood of adopting adaptive and resilient livelihoods. Finally, the cost-benefit analysis points to the economic viability of adaptation projects promoting climate-adaptive livelihoods. |
| JEL: | O12 Q54 Q56 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19211 |
| By: | Pi, Zhiying; Bai, Junfei |
| Abstract: | Policies aimed at reducing food waste are central to global sustainability agendas, yet most studies analyze waste in isolation, neglecting interactions with food safety and nutrition. Efforts to curb waste can interact in unexpected ways with these objectives, potentially shifting inefficiencies rather than resolving them. This paper develops a unified producer–consumer model in which waste, spoilage risk, and nutritional deviation arise endogenously from intertemporal decisions on pricing, purchasing, and consumption. We show that single-objective policies, such as disposal fees or consumer was te reduction campaigns, may distort incentives, shift waste across stages, or worsen safety and health outcomes. Coordinated interventions improve welfare when spoilage probability decreases through real technological progress, so long as waste disposal fees are high enough and consumption remains close to the nutritional benchmark. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404380 |
| By: | Lachhab, Rania; Bruno, Ellen |
| Abstract: | Water banking has gained increasing policy attention as a means to mitigate drought risk and enhance long-term water security, yet assessing its economic value remains challenging. We estimate the value of groundwater storage with a hedonic analysis of the Kern Water Bank in California, which created spatial variation in access to storage based on whether a parcel was located within a participating water district. Using a dataset of agricultural land transactions from Kern County, CA and surrounding areas spanning 1984 to 2021, we find that access to the Kern Water Bank meaningfully increased land values, with a 15% increase in the per-acre price of parcels within participating water districts relative to those outside following the start of the bank. These findings underscore the substantial economic benefits of intertemporal water reallocation, with policy implications for agricultural regions facing growing water scarcity and climate variability. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404731 |
| By: | Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Cardell, Lila; Farris, Jarrad; Ajewole, Kayode; Johnson, Michael E.; Johnson, William; Lin, Jesse; Valdes, Constanza; Zeng, Wendy |
| Abstract: | This annual report is published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service before September 30 each year as required by section 408(b) of Public Law 480 and 7 U.S.C. 1736b of Public Law 95−98. Based on macroeconomic assumptions completed in September 2025, this report uses the Global Food Assessment (GFA) model to evaluate food demand in 83 low- and middle-income countries and monitor each country’s ability to meet this demand (food and non-food) through its production and local sources. The gap between local food availability and food demand helps identify potential markets for U.S. agricultural products. Grain demand in GFA countries is projected to rise from 1.1 billion tons in 2026 to 1.4 billion tons by 2036, driven mainly by increased needs in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, with grain production growing at only 1.6 percent annually, it will not meet the 2.1 percent annual increase in demand, widening the supply gap. In 2026, 19.5 percent of the population (or 884.4 million people) across 83 of the GFA countries are estimated to be food insecure, measured by the percentage of people consuming less than 2, 100 kilocalories per person per day. By 2036, the number of food-insecure people in these countries is projected to decline by 33.4 percent, reaching 589 million individuals (or 11.4 percent of the GFA population), due to sustained income growth and stable commodity prices. While the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to maintain a surplus in grain production, other regions are expected to face widening deficits. This situation will necessitate a 36-percent rise in the Implied Additional Supply Required from 325.6 million tons in 2026 to 441.7 million tons in 2036. Asia’s food supply gap is projected to grow due to income growth, population expansion, and increased demand for animal products. In Latin America and the Caribbean, rising grain demand driven by income growth and urbanization is projected to result in increasing reliance on imports. Similarly, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to experience a widening grain deficit due to slow production growth and high cereal import dependence. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to face rising food demand driven by population growth, leading to increased dependence on imported grains and higher-value foods. These broad economic trends do not account for localized shocks which may continue to exacerbate food insecurity in vulnerable regions of SSA, MENA, and the Caribbean (e.g., Haiti), regardless of global averages. The projections do not consider the impacts of unforeseen future events—such as weather shocks, armed conflict, and political and economic instability—that may have occurred after the projections were completed. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Productivity Analysis, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersmp:410193 |
| By: | Fang, Ming; Wang, Shuang |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of informal institutions—specifically, clan culture—in facilitating agricultural land markets in the absence of robust formal property rights. Exploiting the staggered rollout of China's agricultural land certification program as a quasi-experiment, we analyze rural household land rental behavior. We document two main findings. First, villages with stronger clan networks exhibit significantly higher rates of land out-leasing, highlighting the protective role of informal cultural norms on land tenure security. Second, the policy-induced increase in land leasing— driven by the formalization of property rights—is substantially weaker in villages with strong pre-existing clan cultures. Our findings suggest a strong substitution effect between formal legal institutions and informal cultural norms, providing direct empirical evidence on the protective power of social capital in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404430 |
| By: | Wang, Ming; Arita, Shawn; Turner, Dylan; Zhang, Yifei |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404407 |
| By: | Sarkar, Sampriti; Lan, Xin; Jiang, Zhimeng; Chen, Junhua; Manning, Dale T |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404400 |
| By: | Van Tassell, Gerald; Ker, Alan |
| Abstract: | The United States spends billions annually on crop insurance premium subsidies, yet the prevailing distance-based guarantee design unintentionally rewards risk-taking by linking subsidies to yield variability. We consider a simple redesign: define guarantees in terms of probability so that coverage reflects a consistent likelihood of indemnity. Using U.S. data, this probability-based approach would reallocate about $3.3 billion in annual subsidies from high-risk to low-risk production, reducing regional disparities by two-thirds without changing total subsidies. Because most publicly subsidized crop insurance programs around the world share this structure, adopting probability-based guarantees could help realign agricultural production toward more resilient and sustainable regions and practices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404359 |
| By: | Giglio, Stefano; Kuchler, Theresa; Ströbel, Johannes; Wang, Olivier |
| Abstract: | We explore the economic effects of biodiversity loss by developing an ecologically-founded model that captures how different species interact to deliver the ecosystem services that complement other factors of economic production. Aggregate ecosystem services are produced by combining several non-substitutable ecosystem functions such as pollination and water filtration, which are each provided by many substitutable species playing similar roles. As a result, economic output is an increasing but highly concave function of species richness. The marginal economic value of a species depends on three factors: (i) the number of similar species within its ecosystem function, (ii) the marginal importance of the affected function for overall ecosystem productivity, and (iii) the extent to which ecosystem services constrain economic output in each country. Using our framework, we derive expressions for the fragility of ecosystem service provision and its evolution over time, which depends, among other things, on the distribution of biodiversity losses across ecosystem functions. We discuss how these fragility measures can help policymakers assess the risks induced by biodiversity loss and prioritize conservation efforts. We also embed our model of ecosystem service production in a standard economic model to study optimal land use when land use raises output at the cost of reducing biodiversity. We find that even in settings where species loss does not reduce output substantially today, it lowers growth opportunities and reduces resilience to future species loss, especially when past species loss has been asymmetric across functions. Consistent with these predictions of our model, we show empirically that news about biodiversity loss increases spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) more for countries with more depleted ecosystems. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity |
| JEL: | E3 E32 E60 E61 G1 G10 H20 H21 H23 Q01 Q3 Q30 Q32 Q50 Q54 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19277 |
| By: | Wongpiyabovorn, Oranuch; Wang, Tong; Oyebanji, Akinsola T. |
| Abstract: | This study uses county-level data from the 2022 U.S. Census of Agriculture, the first nationwide survey recording precision agriculture (PA) usage, to investigate PA adoption patterns and drivers. Our findings indicated concentrated PA usage in the Corn and Cotton Belts with a national adoption rate of 12.2%. Demographic characteristics along with structural factors like farm size and internet access, significantly affect PA adoption rates. More funding opportunities towards PA advancements in the livestock and specialty crops sectors are required. Our paper highlights the necessity for policies to reduce PA adoption barriers and to refine PA adoption variables for future research. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404712 |
| By: | Gong, Xuche; Cheu, Sungmin; Lee, Seowoo; Park, Yunsun |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404364 |
| By: | Kunwar, Binayak; Fiechter, Chad; Shew, Aaron; Tchuente, Guy |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how state-led land acquisitions for industrial development affect farmland markets, focusing on the Indiana Economic Development Corporation’s (IEDC) purchase of farmland for the LEAP Innovation and Research District in Boone County, Indiana. Using transaction-level data from 2016–2024 and difference in- differences and event-study designs, we estimate both localized and spillover price effects. Farmland prices in Boone County increased by 40–58 percent, while neighboring counties experienced spillovers of about 7 percent. Local effects persist, whereas spillovers emerge with a lag and gradually dissipate. These results have implications for land-use planning, agricultural expansion, and rural equity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404339 |
| By: | McGrady, Clare; Rutledge, Zachariah |
| Abstract: | Historically, farmers in the United States have relied on a flexible supply of low-wage labor from rural Mexico. Recent studies indicate there has been a decline in this labor pool, partly due to competition from other economic sectors. This study utilizes data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey to examine factors influencing crop farmworkers’ likelihood of engaging in nonfarm work. We find that farmworkers who are male, have stronger nonfarm networks, higher education levels, legal work authorization, or engage in migrant farmwork are more likely to work off the farm. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404613 |
| By: | Belgacem, Wajdi; Xu, Zheng; Wang, Tong |
| Abstract: | U.S. dairy consolidation has accelerated, yet the role of climate risk remains underexplored. Using county‑level panel data from five USDA Censuses of Agriculture (1997–2017) linked with gridded climate records, we estimate fixed‑effects Poisson models to quantify the effects of climate extremes on dairy farm numbers. A two‑standard‑deviation increase in heat stress reduces small‑farm counts by 75 percent and increases large farms by 94 percent. A similar increase in extreme drought further accelerates small‑farm exit by 3.4 percent. Climate stress thus reinforces structural dynamics favoring larger operations, underscoring the need for policies that strengthen the resilience of vulnerable producers. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404478 |
| By: | Kim, Minsu; Schmidt, Claudia; Goetz, Stephan J.; Tian, Zheng |
| Abstract: | We examine how greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture (GNF) production affects farm viability and structural change in U.S. agriculture. Using state-level panel data from the U.S. Census of Agriculture and US State Energy Data System (SEDS) for 2012–2022, we estimate fixed-effects models and a competition-based land-allocation system. Greater shares of land devoted to GNF are associated with increases in total and average farm size, and declines in farm numbers, indicating land reallocation rather than farm entry. Higher productivity and government support increase GNF adoption, while higher productivity in the other sector reduces it. Non-GNF production is sensitive to temperature variation, whereas GNF is not, highlighting its role as a climate-resilient production system. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404715 |
| By: | Lwin, Wuit Yi; Arita, Shawn; Cooper, Joseph; Keller, Andrew; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | California’s Proposition 12 imposed retail-level animal-confinement requirements (ACL) on pork sold in the state beginning in January 2024. We combine two empirical strategies to estimate the impacts of Proposition 12 along the pork supply chain and consumers. First, we estimate a linear-approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) using pre-policy data to recover the full demand elasticity matrix and derive welfare measures. Second, we employ a vertical supply-chain decomposition that links wholesale ACL premiums from the USDA Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR) database to retail scanner data, allowing us to estimate the pass-through rate and quantify the economic burden borne at each stage of the supply chain. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404390 |
| By: | MIller, Steve; Koppa, Nisha; Binte Ali, Suraiya; Jarrett, Uchechukwu |
| Abstract: | Weexamine the intra-annual timing of discretionary agricultural trade interventions for maize, rice, and wheat. Relating intervention timing to production cycles reveals that many interventions occur during growing seasons when policymakers lack complete harvest information. Based on this observation, we ask whether hypothesized drivers of intervention– international price and domestic yield– are more strongly related to intervention probability during different parts of the production cycle. We find strong associations between intervention and two yield signals at different times: realized yield with some delay after harvest and satellite-derived proxies for crop conditions during the season. Prices are consistently associated with intervention throughout the year. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404680 |
| By: | Mehan, Sach |
| Abstract: | India faces a dual crisis: an oil import dependency of 87.7% costing $137 billion annually, and binding climate commitments including a 47% emission intensity reduction target and net zero by 2070. The transport sector, which accounts for 14% of India's total emissions and 58-60% of imported crude oil consumption, sits at the centre of both crises. This policy brief examines ethanol blending as a policy instrument positioned to address both simultaneously. Drawing on official government data, a peer-reviewed study by IIM-A and the Potsdam Institute (Jha et al., 2026), and the Parliament statement of July 20, 2026, the brief analyses the advantages and challenges of India's Ethanol Blending Programme, which achieved its 20% blending target in 2025, five years ahead of schedule. While the programme has delivered $19.3 billion in forex savings and a net reduction of 832 lakh metric tonnes of CO2 emissions, it presents serious trade-offs in food security, water stress, and land use. This brief argues that the path forward lies not in retreating from ethanol blending, but in accelerating the transition from first-generation sugarcane-based ethanol to second-generation agricultural waste-based ethanol. Five policy recommendations are proposed to address the structural challenges while preserving the programme's strategic benefits. |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aws6h_v2 |
| By: | Chandio, Rabail; Lence, Sergio; Zhang, Wendong |
| Abstract: | Farmland auctions are widely used, particularly for high-quality parcels, yet their effect on sale price remains unclear. Using detailed transaction data, we show that although higher-quality ground is more likely to be sold via auction, auctions are associated with lower prices on average after controlling for observable characteristics. We reconcile this apparent contradiction by demonstrating that auction performance is highly dependent on land quality: auctions perform relatively well for higher and homogeneous quality, easily observable parcels but generate worse outcomes for lower-quality or more ambiguous land. These findings highlight that auctions are not universally “effective”, but instead operate as a context-dependent sales mechanism shaped by the underlying characteristics of the asset. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404337 |
| By: | Valencia, Christian |
| Abstract: | The H-2A visa program provides US farms access to foreign temporary labor but requires employers to pay a federally mandated minimum hourly wage, the Adverse EffectWage Rate, to both foreign and domestic workers performing comparable tasks. This paper studies how increases in the H-2A visa wage affect farms’ allocation of agricultural inputs. Using county-level data from the 2002–2022 USDA Census of Agriculture and a border-county pair design that compares counties across state lines, I show that higher visa wages lead farms to substitute away from labor and toward capital and materials. I find that a 1% increase in the visa wage on average leads to a 1.2% increase in machinery values, increases intermediate input use by 3.9% on the intensive margin, and expands the range of inputs used by 1.1% on the extensive margin. I find no effect on employment or payrolls. The results are consistent with labor-cost-driven mechanization and input intensification, which together contribute to higher agricultural productivity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404392 |
| By: | Mottaleb, Khondoker; Meerza, Syed Imran Ali |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the long-run impacts of the Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge on agricultural transformation and rural welfare in Bangladesh. Exploiting the bridge opening in June 1998 as a quasi-natural experiment, we use six waves of nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey data and a difference-indifferences framework. The results indicate that households in treatment areas experienced higher expenditures, increased agricultural investment, greater agricultural commercialization, and stronger production growth following the bridge opening. Effects are stronger in districts closer to the bridge, suggesting that reduced transport costs and improved market access generated durable rural transformation. The findings highlight the role of large-scale transport infrastructure in reducing spatial isolation, improving agricultural outcomes, and supporting progress toward poverty reduction and food-security goals. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404755 |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Makate, Clifton (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Land rental markets are widely viewed as an important mechanism for improving the allocation of land in smallholder agriculture, and nationally representative household panel surveys have become an increasingly important source of evidence on their performance. However, credible inference from such surveys depends on the reliability of reported land ownership and rental information. This paper develops a diagnostic framework that exploits repeated household observations to evaluate reporting quality, identify where conventional panel analyzes become vulnerable to reporting errors, and improve subsequent empirical assessment of land rental markets. Using balanced panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda, we document substantial instability in reported ownership holdings, persistent inconsistencies between reported tenant and landlord activity, and systematic underestimation of contemporaneously reported land ownership.We incorporate these diagnostics into benchmark and dynamic analyzes of land rental markets to examine their implications for allocative efficiency and entry barriers. The diagnostics substantially affect estimated farm-size distributions, landlessness assessments, and landlord-side rental statistics, while tenant-side analyzes prove considerably more robust. Although reporting instability is widespread, the principal relationships between land endowments, complementary productive assets, entry barriers, and tenant behavior remain remarkably stable after the identified reporting problems are explicitly taken into account. Our findings demonstrate that nationally representative household panel surveys can provide credible evidence on land rental markets when accompanied by systematic diagnostic analyzes that identify reporting limitations, guide empirical specification, and clarify where reliable inference is and is not possible. |
| Keywords: | Land rental market; allocative efficiency; data reliability; policy relevance |
| JEL: | C23 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2026_008 |
| By: | Cai, Qingyin; Li, Qingxiao; Adjemian, Michael; Li, Wenying; Zhao, Shuoli |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404557 |
| By: | Taj, Tanjum Afrin; Elbakidze, Levan; Hwang, Julian |
| Abstract: | Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are harmful and persistent synthetic chemicals widely detected in U.S. surface water, groundwater, and public drinking water systems. Although the EPA introduced national drinking water standards for selected PFAS compounds, the economic benefits of mitigating PFAS in drinking water remain unquantified. We estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for removing PFAS from all publicly supplied drinking water in the U.S. using an online dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey. The results show that aggregate annual benefits of a national PFAS drinking water remediation program range from $104.1 billion to $111.7 billion. WTP is higher when PFAS are detected in the respondent’s local drinking water supply, while provision of information about exposure to PFAS via other pathways besides drinking water, including consumer goods, has no significant impact. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404489 |
| By: | Franken, Jason; Cornett, Evan; Grashuis, Jasper; Mukembo, Stephen |
| Abstract: | Given the decreasing number of cooperatives in the U.S. between 2017 and 2022, this study conducts a competing risk survival analysis on confidential data from the USDA1 to examine two exit types: mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and liquidations and dissolutions (L&D). By applying the Fine and Gray method and cumulative incidence analyses, the study incorporates two time scales—time-to-event and time-underobservation— to estimate determinants of the two exit pathways. This research demonstrates that failure in agricultural cooperatives is a complex process shaped by leverage, profitability, scale, and exogenous shocks. M&A represents a strategic decision for survival or growth, while L&D predominantly represents the failure of small and unprofitable cooperatives. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404316 |
| By: | Sharma, Manoj; Villoria, Nelson |
| Abstract: | Wequantifytheextenttowhichinternational demandforagricultural commodities drives deforestation. Using panel data for 138 countries and 18 commodity groups during 2001–2022, we estimate commodity-specific elasticities of deforestation with respect to exports. To address the potential endogeneity between exports and supply-driven deforestation, we instrument exports with an export share‑weighted average of destination‑market import demands, constructed from a gravity model of bilateral trade. We find that a 10% increase in exports of agricultural commodities increases commodities-associated deforestation by 2.96%. We also find heterogeneous effects across commodities and regions, with the largest effects for perennial and tree crops, livestock, soybeans, and sugar crops. Back‑of‑the‑envelope calculations suggest that increases in international demand account for approximately 53 million hectares of agricultural expansion into forests between 2001 and 2022, corresponding to 49% of the observed forest-to-agriculture conversion. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404633 |
| By: | Zhang, Yuxiang; Liu, Yizao |
| Abstract: | Recent food price inflation has placed substantial pressure on household budgets, food security, and mental well-being. Using Household Pulse Survey data, we combine k-modes clustering and Double Machine Learning to identify distinct household coping groups and examine and examine differences in how households respond to rising food prices across groups. Results show that higher food prices are associated with increased grocery and prepared meal spending, elevate risks of food insufficiency, and worsen mental health conditions, with heterogeneity across coping groups. Households employing moderate substitution strategies show limited buffering, while those using more intensive coping behaviors remain highly vulnerable, highlighting the need for policy responses that address the multiple, co-occurring dimensions of hardship including food access, financial strain, and mental health, rather than any single dimension in isolation. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404617 |
| By: | MOGAJI, RIDWAN ISHOLA |
| Abstract: | Today, environmental crisis is at the forefront of global debates due to the significant harm done to the environment over the years. This crisis has caused decreased agricultural yields, water pollution, flooding, and a decline in living standards, as well as affected public health. As a result, the global community has been compelled to address these urgent issues, for if left unchecked, they could be more disastrous to human well-being. Environmentalists have argued that these consequences, being the effect of climate change, can be traced to the degradation of nature by humans. To this effect, various coping strategies and preventive measures have been proposed to raise awareness and implement solutions, but environmental degradation persists. This, however, has been argued to be a result of a top-down approach to environmental crisis, which, as a result, led to a shift towards embracing a bottom-up approach to environmental crisis. This shift has sparked an interest in indigenous knowledge systems, for it is believed that the indigenous people have a closer relationship with the environment. In this context, we propose the Yoruba conservation approach, which prioritises fear in environmental management. The goal herein is to assess its relevance and effectiveness in addressing contemporary environmental challenges. Through a conceptual analysis, critical analysis, and comparative analysis, this paper argues that the Yoruba conservative methodology, which is founded on fear, may struggle to survive in today's scientific world, where innovative solutions and societal developments are scientifically driven. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Crisis, Fear, Global, Yoruba conservation approach |
| JEL: | I3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128258 |
| By: | Arkoh, Isaac; Van der Sluis, Evert |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of public agricultural research and development (R&D) and interstate knowledge spillovers on US agricultural productivity from 1971 to 2012. Using a statelevel production framework, it tests four spillover weighting schemes: USDA regions, geographic distance, production-mix clusters, and correlation-weighted clusters. Findings confirm that R&D significantly boosts total factor productivity, with national average social internal rates of return (19%-28%) substantially exceeding average local rates (9%-15%). Results are highly sensitive to spillover modeling, with agro-ecological similarity proving more predictive than geographic proximity. Public extension services further complement R&D, underscoring the need for coordinated investment to sustain productivity. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404707 |
| By: | Remy Levin; Daniela Vidart |
| Abstract: | We design a method for measuring the risk preferences of agents in the deep past. The method combines a structural model of crop choice as a portfolio allocation with machine-learning prediction of expected crop returns, using historic agronomic and climate data. We estimate county-level risk preferences for the United States and farmer-level preferences in Kansas from 1889 to 1929. More risk averse farmers leveraged less, were less likely to purchase novel WWI Liberty Bonds, and were more likely to participate in local risk-sharing institutions. We show that higher risk aversion predicts slower tractor adoption and farm mechanization during the 1920s. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.15876 |
| By: | Hassanizadeh, Behnam; Kenkel, Phil; Brorsen, Wade |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes correlations in county-level grain production in Oklahoma and Kansas from 2013 to 2023 to evaluate risk diversification potential in cooperative mergers. Using ordinary least squares, and Bayesian regression, we model how spatial distance, crop composition, adjacency, and production scale affect production correlations. Results show modest county-level heterogeneity, with east–west distance consistently reducing production correlations. Overall, findings suggest that the distance between a cooperative and a potential merger partner is not a reliable predictor of the degree of correlation in grain receipts. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404769 |
| By: | Qi, Tao; Bovay, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the stock market response to USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) Class I meat and poultry recalls affecting publicly listed U.S. firms over 2014– 2024, using four empirical approaches: an event study, an event study with interactions, and two staggered difference-in-differences estimators. While the cumulative average abnormal return is –1.49 percent, large recalls produce losses of –2.47 percent by day 20 after the recall announcement and product contamination recalls reach –4.0 percent by day 30, whereas small recalls and misbranding events carry no significant market penalty. The two staggered DID estimators yield directionally consistent but quantitatively different results, highlighting that the choice of empirical method affects estimated magnitudes. Applying multiple frameworks with distinct identification assumptions produces more credible evidence on the financial consequences of food safety failures and the market incentives for compliance. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404545 |
| By: | De Marchi, Elisa; Banterle, Alessandro; Cavaliere, Alessia; Fadini, Irene |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404520 |
| By: | Pereira, Olívia S; Jacobsen, Mark; Carson, Richard; Cortés, Jorge; Levin, Lisa A |
| Abstract: | Methane seeps are highly productive ecosystems that provide carbon sequestration services, host diverse communities including endemic species, and serve as habitats for commercial fisheries. Little is known about the economic value the public places on them. Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are administered to a sample of Costa Rican taxpayers to evaluate their willingness to pay (WTP) in monetary terms using tradeoffs made in a survey context involving three of the main attributes of methane seep ecosystems to provide insights for future conservation and management efforts. Extensive effort is devoted to understanding how Costa Ricans view different aspects of the deep sea. We find that they associate it with strange animals, natural resources, the unknown, and being far from reach. Perhaps surprisingly, they underestimate how much they know about the deep sea. We find that WTP for methane seep protection is the highest for programs that protect seeps with endemic species, followed by seeps with high climate change mitigation potential and commercial fishing habitat. Higher-income groups and women are more likely to prefer options that increase the current level of protection. We discuss how science communication and community engagement contribute to care expressed toward the deep sea. |
| Keywords: | 38 Economics (for-2020), 3801 Applied Economics (for-2020), 15 Life on Land (sdg), Choice modelling, Deep sea, Ecosystem services, Existence value, Methane seeps, 0502 Environmental Science and Management (for), 1402 Applied Economics (for), 1499 Other Economics (for), Agricultural Economics & Policy (science-metrix), 3103 Ecology (for-2020), 3801 Applied economics (for-2020), 3899 Other economics (for-2020) |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt87w646zx |
| By: | Brey, Bjorn; Facchini, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | What are the political consequences of de-globalization? We address this question in the context of Weimar Germany, which experienced a 67\% decline in exports between 1928-1932. During this period, the Nazi party vote share increased from 3\% to 37\%. Using newly digitized data, we show that this surge was not driven by the direct effects of the export decline in manufacturing areas. At the same time, trade shock-induced declines in food prices spread economic hardship to rural hinterlands. We document that this indirect effect and the pro-agriculture policies put forward by the Nazis are instead key to explain their electoral success. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Extremism; Germany |
| JEL: | F14 F44 N14 N44 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19383 |
| By: | Li, Youmin |
| Abstract: | For agricultural food economic studies, rich survey instruments capture meaningful heterogeneity, but conventional empirical specifications can become sensitive to co-linearity and endogeneity. This study recognized how consumer perceptions shape olive oil consumption choices, combining unsupervised learning for data quality and structure detection with supervised models for prediction and inference. Using exploratory factor analysis to condense multi-item perception constructs, clustering to identify respondent archetypes and remove low-quality responses, and penalized models ensembles to predict consumption preference, we quantify (i) which perceptions matter most (EFA-PCA), (ii) how effects vary across consumer segments (Cluster and SEM), and (iii) out-of-sample performance under K-fold cross-validation. Results indicate that quality perceptions, taste imagery and price sensitivity are the dominant drivers, with heterogeneity across income and region. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404522 |
| By: | Chen, Tzu-Hui; Sexton, Richard; Smith, Aaron; Swanson, Andrew |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404377 |
| By: | Ma, Richie; Serra, Teresa |
| Abstract: | This paper examines price discovery in agricultural derivatives using Chicago Mercantile Exchange intraday data, revealing a decoupling between timeliness and efficiency. We show that options lead underlying futures in timeliness, yet futures remain the primary anchor for pricing efficiency. While options are thinly traded, they exhibit a significantly higher frequency of aggressive quotes that move the best bid or offer price—over three times that of futures. A 1% increase in relative aggressive quoting is associated with a 0.75%–0.98% increase in options’ timeliness. These findings challenge trade-centric views, showing that aggressive limit orders rather than executed trades are associated with timely information incorporation in modern electronic markets. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404352 |
| By: | Morse, Madison; Whitman, Kathy; Urie, Natalie; DeLay, Nathan; Lombard, Jason |
| Abstract: | Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 had a significant impact on U.S. dairy production during the outbreak beginning in 2024. We estimate the causal effect of HPAI H5N1 on per-cow milk production using a staggered differences-in-differences (DiD) analysis. Results indicate that HPAI H5N1 reduces per-cow average daily milk production by 7.52%. Substantial treatment effect heterogeneity is identified with some group-level treatment effects exceeding 20%. We provide the most comprehensive empirical evidence to date on the production impacts of HPAI H5N1 on U.S. dairy farms. This study offers insights on transboundary animal disease costs for policymakers designing compensation programs and disease mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404691 |
| By: | De la Peña, Nicolas (Universidad de La Salle); Vasquez-Merchan, Irma Liliana |
| Abstract: | International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) and Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are supposed to influence domestic environmental norms. Although recent literature has examined global patterns, there remains a lack of understanding regarding the situation in Latin America. This paper aims to assess the effect of international agreements on domestic environmental law in Latin America. We develop an empirical analysis of the relationship between international agreements and national environmental legislation by combining three datasets: International Environmental Agreements Database (IEADB), Trade & Environment Database (TREND), and Food, Agriculture and Renewable Natural Resources Legislation Database (FAOLEX), to address IEAs, PTAs, and domestic legislation, respectively. Our paper contributes to scientific debates on international political economy because Latin America exhibits particularities regarding the influence of international norms on domestic legislation due to political regime, environmental protectionism, the influence of high-income partners, and the more significant impact of PTAs compared to EIAs. |
| Date: | 2026–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7623c_v1 |
| By: | Yin, Jiaxin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how institutional structure shapes groundwater market participation using the evidence from the Oxnard Basin in Ventura County, California, where the first groundwater market under California’s SGMA was implemented. Using a farm-year panel of well-level extraction records linked to crop and land-use data, I show that agricultural production units have become increasingly concentrated. The internal reallocation of groundwater within the production units absorbs some marginal gains from formal market participation. The findings suggest that limited groundwater market trading may reflect institutional substitution rather than market failure, with implications for the design and evaluation of environmental markets. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404733 |
| By: | Robertson, Dewey J.; Hendricks, Nathan P. |
| Abstract: | Ad hoc programs are increasingly becoming the administrative means by which farm support is provided. This paper examines how ad hoc programs distort commodity market outcomes through the storage margin. Using a commodity-state-quarter-marketing-year panel dataset covering corn, soybeans, and wheat from 2016—2024, we employ a two-stage least squares estimator that exploits cross-state variation in ad hoc payment levels as an instrument for on and off-farm inventory shares. The first stage indicates that payments increase inventory shares early in the marketing-year when liquidity constraints are tightest following harvest. We further find evidence of anticipatory storage behavior, suggesting that producers expect ad hoc payments. Second stage estimates indicate that payment-induced stockholding affects local cash prices as detected in the basis. Our results have implications for how the impacts of ad hoc agricultural support programs are evaluated and for the design of risk management tools in markets subject to policy-driven storage incentives. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404767 |
| By: | Shrestha, Kalyani; Pendell, Dustin |
| Abstract: | Since early 2022, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has caused extensive losses across the U.S. livestock industry through high mortality, depopulation, and severe trade disruptions. While direct losses are significant, indirect costs from export restrictions remain equally damaging. This study assesses the welfare impacts of HPAI on the U.S. turkey sector using an equilibrium displacement model to trace price, quantity, and producer-surplus effects across turkey, chicken, beef, and pork markets from 2022 to 2025. We compare three trade scenarios: no restriction, county-level bans, and state-level bans. In 2023, turkey producer-surplus losses reached approximately $117 million under county-level restrictions, compared to $365 million under state-level bans, a difference of roughly $248 million. These findings underscore the value of precise Sanitary and Phytosanitary protocols in reducing preventable economic losses during future outbreaks. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404405 |
| By: | Shanoyan, Aleksan; Bergtold, Jason; Guazzelli Pezzali, Julia; Hobbs, Lonnie; Rabiee, Elaheh |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404313 |
| By: | Antonelli, Nicolás; Zanfrillo, Alicia Inés; Baltar, Fabiola; Sirochinsky, Eugenia |
| Abstract: | As a result of the profound changes in purchasing patterns driven by younger generations who are more conscious and responsible for what is produced and consumed, together with the health crises that brought food safety to the center of the debate, the demands on production models have evolved towards more sustainable and circular schemes. In this context, the fishing industry finds in the circular economy (CE) paradigm a strategic vehicle for the generation of value, with a remarkable potential in the reuse of waste, diversification of by- products and generation of renewable energy from organic waste. |
| Keywords: | Industria Pesquera; Economía Circular; Sostenibilidad; Cadena de Valor; |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4586 |
| By: | Casey, Gregory; Fried, Stephie; Gibson, Matthew |
| Abstract: | Existing climate-economy models assume climate change has equal impacts on the productivity of firms that produce consumption and investment goods and services. We develop a model of structural change to show that the split between damage to consumption and investment productivity matters for the aggregate consequences of climate change. When investment is more vulnerable to climate, we find smaller short-run consumption losses than leading models suggest, but larger long-run consumption losses. We provide a quantitative illustration of these effects for one type of climate damage in the US economy: labor productivity losses from heat stress. We find that accounting for heterogeneous damages increases the welfare cost of the climate damage from heat stress by approximately 4 to 23\%, depending on the discount factor. |
| Keywords: | Growth |
| JEL: | O13 O44 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19229 |
| By: | Peter K. Kruse-Andersen; Peter Birch Sørensen; Anders Pretzmann Gotfredsen; Francesco Clora; Wusheng Yu |
| Abstract: | Despite being a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, agriculture remains one of the least regulated sectors in climate policy. Designing climate policy for agriculture is challenging due to the interaction between GHG emissions, emissions of other pollutants such as ammonia and nitrate, competing land uses, and the risk of GHG leakage. Within a general equilibrium framework, we analyze cost-effective climate policy for the entire economy with a focus on agriculture, assuming a national GHG emissions target and a target for limiting GHG leakage. The first-best policy requires a large set of tax and subsidy instruments to mitigate GHG leakage from all possible channels. We argue that this set of instruments is unlikely to be implemented in practice. We therefore focus on an implementable second-best policy. We show that accounting for all externalities and leakage effects, it is second-best optimal to differentiate GHG taxes across sectors and to allow taxes on other emissions to deviate from their Pigouvian level. To quantify the second-best policy, we simulate a calibrated version of our theoretical model, with leakage coefficients computed using a large-scale global general equilibrium model. Simulations indicate that the domestic environmental co-benefits of GHG reductions may be sufficiently large to ensure that overall household welfare improves even when disregarding global warming effects. However, the government faces a trade-off: if it wishes to limit GHG leakage, it will have to sacrifice the benefits to the domestic environment that could otherwise be gained from the second-best optimal unilateral climate policy. |
| Keywords: | climate and environmental policy towards agriculture, greenhouse gas leakage, environmental co-benefits from climate policy. |
| JEL: | D58 H21 Q15 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12944 |
| By: | Lee, Siun |
| Abstract: | Feedlot operators hedge a feeding margin that depends jointly on feeder cattle, corn, and live cattle prices, yet futures hedges lose effectiveness precisely when margins deteriorate. Using rolling Regular-Vine copulas on daily prices for the three commodities (2014–2025), this research studies the joint dependence among spot and futures markets and hedging effectiveness across profit and loss regimes. Variance based effectiveness is relatively stable, but downside effectiveness falls sharply as margins turn negative. This is driven not by the dependence structure but by the level of the margin. Because futures are approximately mean-neutral, they reshape the margin’s dispersion but cannot shift its location: when the expected margin sits below break-even, downside protection collapses even as variance reduction is preserved. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404351 |
| By: | Yang, Zhengliang; Dinar, Ariel; Nemati, Mehdi; Porse, Erik; Shellabarger, Rachel; Howlader, Aparna; Ma, Meilin; Zilberman, David; Caputo, Vincenzina; Kilders, Valerie; McNamara, Paul; Hennessy, David; Zheng, Hongyun |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404376 |
| By: | Liu, Zhentao; Just, David; Jablonski, Becca; Byrne, Anne |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how food pantry clients value different food items. Using survey data from local food pantry users, the analysis measures the importance of specific pantry items through respondents’ stated willingness to wait, defined as the number of minutes they are willing to wait for each item. The empirical analysis applies a two-part framework to distinguish two dimensions of item importance. The first part examines the extensive margin: whether a respondent is willing to wait for a given item at all. The second part examines the intensive margin: how long the respondent is willing to wait conditional on reporting a positive waiting time. This framework allows the paper to evaluate both whether pantry clients treat an item as worth waiting for and how strongly they value it once they are willing to wait. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404577 |
| By: | Strine, Joshua; Fiechter, Chad; Kuethe, Todd |
| Abstract: | Between 2002 and 2023, 37 mergers occurred among Farm Credit System (FCS) agricultural credit associations (ACAs). We examine the effect of these mergers on ACA technical efficiency and financial performance using a window data envelopment analysis followed by a second-stage stacked difference-in-differences framework. We find no significant improvement in technical efficiency following consolidation. However, mergers yield different benefits for the merging associations. The smaller ACAs in the mergers reduce their bank efficiency ratios by 9.8–9.9 percentage points, a 34 percent reduction in the average ACA bank efficiency ratio, indicating they have less non-interest expense per dollar of income. Larger ACAs in the mergers increase their net interest margin by 0.12 percentage points, a 4 percent increase relative to the average ACA net interest margin, indicating a greater interest margin relative to their earning assets. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404332 |
| By: | Zhang, Yifan; Tian, Xiaohui |
| Abstract: | Existing projections of China’s forest carbon sink treat management as exogenous, ignoring how timber prices shape investment, species selection, and harvest timing. We develop a high-resolution China module within the Global Timber Model (GTM), a dynamic partial-equilibrium optimization framework calibrated to the Ninth National Forest Inventory across 234 land classes. Under the baseline, China’s forests sequester an average of 164 Tg C yr−1 between 2020 and 2060, stabilizing above 100 Tg C yr−1 through end-of-century. Commercial plantations, 24% of forest area, contribute over half the total sink by 2060. Holding management intensity fixed reduces the sink by 15% by 2060. Higher timber demand strengthens the sink through intensified management, while relaxing logging restrictions generates short-term carbon costs but long-term net gains. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404739 |
| By: | Bilal, Adrien; Känzig, Diego |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, un- like country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model. Business-as-usual warming implies a present welfare loss of more than 30%, and a Social Cost of Carbon in excess of $1, 500 per ton. These impacts suggest that uni- lateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E01 E23 F18 O44 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19203 |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel; Gan, Li; Zhang, Yike |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how intensified border enforcement affects employers’ reliance on temporary legal workers in U.S. agriculture. Using administrative data on H-2A certifications (2015-2025), we exploit the geographic concentration of a Texas state initiative that expanded immigration enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico boundary to compare border and interior counties before and after implementation. Results show a large, persistent increase in H-2A certifications in border counties relative to interior ones. Complementary analyses indicate that these increases were not accompanied by changes in agricultural activity or local economic conditions. Overall, the findings suggest increased reliance on formal guest-worker channels following reinforced border control. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404371 |
| By: | Chen, Jialiang; Lade, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | Environmental advocates argue that California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is expanding U.S. dairy herds by paying farmers to capture manure methane, while regulators dismiss these concerns as speculative. We exploit the historical placement of natural gas facilities relative to dairy farms and historical LCFS credit prices to examine the impact of the policy on county milk-cow inventories from 2012 to 2025. We find that a 10 percent increase in the credit revenue per unit of biogas raises herd sizes by approximately 1.2 percent for complier counties. The estimate is robust to excluding California. National herd inventories have held steady between 9.3 and 9.5 million head since 2018, suggesting the policy reallocated dairy cow locations rather than expanding aggregate herd sizes. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404445 |
| By: | Mottaleb, Khondoker |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether India’s rice market is insulated from external price variability shocks using monthly data on domestic rice prices, international rice prices, crude oil prices, fertilizer prices, and exchange rates. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework is employed to analyze both short-run and long-run volatility transmission. The results indicate strong integration between domestic wholesale and retail rice-price variability, while direct effects from international rice markets remain weak. Exchange-rate variability emerges as the most important external transmission channel. Overall, the findings suggest that India’s rice market is partially insulated from global price volatility, although external shocks continue to influence domestic markets indirectly through broader macroeconomic conditions. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404681 |
| By: | Sariman, Sevval Buse; Rudi Polloshka, Jeta; Just, David; Caputo, Vincenzina |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404549 |
| By: | , KuoRayMao; Zhao, Zhong |
| Abstract: | This article examines authoritarian states’ roles in commodifying freshwater resources in illiberal societies. The authors argue that collusion between global capitalism and national authoritarian interests has affected the legal structure, regulation enforcement, and institutional practices of public–private partnerships in China’s municipal water systems, resulting in regulatory failures in drinking water provision. The article also explores the implications of China’s state capitalist expansion into the global water utilities market as part of the green Belt and Road Initiative and suggests that this expansion may lead to new patterns of environmental concerns in the Global South. The findings demonstrate that collusion between neoliberal and authoritarian capitalist expansions shapes increasing inequalities and environmental governance standards in the Global South. The authors stress the need to view environmental and public health disasters resulting from water privatization as a transnational crime rather than solely focusing on nation-state regulatory mechanisms that exemplify “metropolitan thinking” in criminology. |
| Date: | 2026–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8akq3_v1 |
| By: | Adrien Bilal; Noémie Pinardon-Touati; Conor Walsh |
| Abstract: | We explore the welfare costs of the loss of animal life in a consequentialist total utilitarian framework that incorporates the intrinsic value of living beings through their sentience. Moral philosophy and neuroscience define sentience as the capacity for valenced experience. Observable performance on cognitive tests represents a conservative lower bound on sentience under plausible neuroscientific assumptions. We estimate the relationship between cognition and neuron counts to cardinalize sentience. We collect population and neuron data for a wide range of animal species, and aggregate them into a single welfare measure. Across a wide range of parameters, the aggregate sentience losses of animals in the past half century outstrip the sentience gains to humans from population growth by at least 10, 000-fold. Breaking even in welfare terms requires assigning a correspondingly small welfare weight to animals. Including the benefits of economic growth to humans does little to change these overall welfare losses. |
| JEL: | D61 D63 O44 O57 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35592 |
| By: | Khanal, Ajit; Legrand, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether Minnesota’s Buffer Law affected county-level corn and soybean yields. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design that compares Minnesota border counties to neighboring border counties, we estimate dynamic effects while controlling for weather, drought, fertilizer use, and adoption intensity of federal conservation programs. We do not find consistent evidence that the law reduced average yields in the later post-treatment periods. The current results are preliminary and should be interpreted cautiously pending additional robustness and sensitivity analysis. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404481 |
| By: | Richards, Timothy J.; Rabinovich, Elliot |
| Abstract: | Food supply networks consist of complex, intertwined relationships among firms that depend on each other for flows of goods and services. Importantly, the stability of these relationships determines how resilience the entire network can expect to be through disruptions that may interrupt the normal flow of goods and services. We estimate the importance of endogenous network relationships to the resilience of an important food supply chain– bananas. We find that bargaining power is critically important to the endogneous formation of supply relationships, but network ties are not nearly as fragile as models of supply chain resilience in the macroeconomics literature suggest. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404628 |
| By: | Uduwe Welage, Naduni; Afesorgbor, Sylvanus; Lim, Sunghun; Lynn, Kennedy |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the major research gap in understanding how diplomatic ties and regional integration affect agricultural trade and how these two instruments complement each other. Utilizing a panel dataset that covers over 250 countries over the period of 1986–2019, we estimated structural gravity model controlling for multilateral resistance and correcting for selection bias. Findings indicate that compared to regional integration, bilateral diplomatic exchange is more significant in determining the agricultural trade flows. We find lack of complementarity between the two instruments, indicating that when countries are regionally integrated, it lessens the space for bilateral diplomatic ties. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404676 |
| By: | Marco Alfano; Joseph-Simon Görlach |
| Abstract: | Accounting for multiple responses to weather shocks drastically changes policy implications for adaptation to increasingly variable weather. Kenyan households react to temperature anomalies by sending migrants, by transiting to less climate-sensitive occupations, and by changing livestock species. Evidence suggests these are short-term adjustments, which respond significantly to common interventions. Randomised income transfers cushion consumption losses and decrease adaptation pressure, such as migration. Better infrastructure, instead, eases occupational transitions, reducing alternative adjustments, including migration and livestock composition. A model of joint migration, occupation, and livestock choices reveals long-term effects of these short-term shocks. Transitions to non-agriculture first act as a substitute for migration and subsequently as a stepping stone for later migration. |
| Keywords: | migration, weather shocks, coping strategies, development policies |
| JEL: | J61 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26216 |
| By: | Kang, Minseong; Lee, Seungki |
| Abstract: | Droughts have increasingly disrupted the Mississippi River system, which carries roughly half of U.S. grain exports. Using monthly export data for 174 ports from 2013 to 2025, this study examines how the U.S. port network reallocates shipments when river navigation deteriorates. The dynamic causal impact of river disruption on port-level trade flows are estimated using a two-stage local-projection control-function framework, instrumenting grain barge rates with localized hydrological variation across 46 monitoring gauges. Weekly river conditions are aggregated to the monthly frequency using a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) scheme. We find that the U.S. port network buffers waterway disruptions only in the short-run. Initial buffers temporarily shield Gulf exports, but sustained losses emerge as these margins collapse. Ultimately, the speed and scope of port reallocation hinge upon supply chain diversification and seasonal contractual rigidity. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404679 |
| By: | Vaiknoras, Kate; Boline, Amy; Swearingen, Bryn |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, soybean seeding rates have fallen in the United States. This has coincided with shifts in planting method, seed technologies, and seed costs, and could have implications for yields and profitability. This paper examines determinants of seeding rates and the impacts of seeding rates on seed costs, yields, and net returns. We find that the use of genetically engineered seed and conventional planters, as well as earlier planting dates, are all associated with reduced seeding rates. Reduced seeding rates lower seed costs by $1-$4 per 10, 000 seed reduction, although they are not associated with yield or net returns in most years. By contrast, the technologies associated with reduced seeding rate, such as conventional planters, are strongly associated with increases in yield and returns. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404699 |