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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Mirkasimov, Bakhrom; Parpiev, Ziyodullo; Wolfson, Inna |
| Abstract: | Climate change is likely to reshape agriculture in an irrigated, water-scarce transition economy like Uzbekistan. We use IFPRI's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model and evaluate the direct effects of climate change on Uzbekistan’s agriculture through 2050. We assume changes in GDP, population, and technological progress to be exogenous. We find that climate change and the corresponding temperature increase will have significant adverse effects on the long-term yields of cotton and wheat through changes in water availability, precipitation patterns, crop yields, and the use of land, water, and other natural resources, but harvested area responses may differ. All climate change scenarios are similar in predicting an increase in harvested area for temperate fruits and vegetables, but their yield gains remain conditional on market prices, policy reform, water use and institutional constraints. For policymakers, this makes climate change adaptation actions an opportunity for incentives and structural reforms as well as for technology to adapt to changing environmental conditions and to ensure food security. |
| Keywords: | climate change; climate change adaptation; mathematical models; climate change impacts; modelling; Uzbekistan; Central Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2026–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cenawp:183323 |
| By: | Madhok, Raahil; Noack, Frederik; Mobarak, Ahmed; Deschenes, Olivier |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how agricultural production responds to the loss of agricultural labor during the process of urbanization and structural transformation. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration opportunities induced by urban income shocks, we show that agricultural households do not systematically replace lost labor with increased capital. Instead, they cultivate less land and lower their use of agricultural technology, reducing crop production. Changing land and crop prices induce non-migrant households to expand agricultural investments and production. In aggregate, market adaptation mitigates over three-fourths of the direct agricultural losses from urbanization. Spatial reorganization moves food production from land near urban areas toward more remote areas with lower emigration. |
| Keywords: | India |
| JEL: | O13 O15 Q15 Q16 R11 R12 J43 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20241 |
| By: | Haqiqi, Iman; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Growing geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and export restrictions have renewed concerns about the resilience of globally integrated food systems. While previous studies have examined the implications of agricultural trade for food security and environmental outcomes, little is known about how trade restrictions reshape production, resource use, and food access at the spatial scales where agricultural decisions occur. Existing approaches either lack endogenous behavioral responses or rely on highly aggregated representations of land and production systems. We address this gap using a multi-crop version of SIMPLE-G, a global gridded equilibrium model that integrates economic decision-making with high-resolution data on crop yields, land availability, water constraints, and production systems. We use the model to evaluate the consequences of global crop import tariffs and to quantify the land-use and productivity adjustments required to maintain food security under reduced trade integration. Our results show that trade restrictions increase crop prices, reorganize production across landscapes, and worsen food insecurity, with the largest impacts concentrated in import-dependent regions. Major exporters such as the United States and Brazil reduce production of internationally traded crops, while food-importing regions expand domestic production through import substitution. However, these market adjustments are insufficient to maintain baseline food security. Restoring pre-tariff levels of undernourishment would require substantial additional cropland expansion or accelerated productivity growth. In North Africa, for example, maintaining baseline food security requires either a 62.7% increase in cropland extent or a 24.9% increase in total factor productivity. Similar but smaller adjustment requirements emerge across the Middle East, Central America, and China. Iso-nutrition frontiers reveal the trade-offs between land conversion and productivity enhancement needed to offset the food-security consequences of trade fragmentation. Beyond the policy implications of trade restrictions, this study demonstrates the value of high-resolution economic modeling for understanding how global market shocks propagate through local agricultural landscapes. By resolving market-mediated responses at the grid-cell level, the framework provides a foundation for evaluating interactions among trade, food security, agricultural productivity, and environmental sustainability in the next generation of global gridded economic models. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404668 |
| By: | Arouna, Aminou; Britwum, Kofi; Gbede, Remy T. |
| Abstract: | Micronutrient deficiencies remain a major public health challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly among rural populations whose diets depend heavily on staple crops. Biofortification has emerged as a promising nutrition-sensitive agricultural strategy for addressing hidden hunger through the development of micronutrient-dense staple food crops. However, the success of biofortified crops depends largely on farmers’ willingness to adopt them. This study examined smallholder farmers’ willingness to adopt (WTA) biofortified crops in West Africa using data collected from 2, 509 farming households across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. The study focused on four biofortified crops: zinc rice, vitamin A maize, vitamin A cassava, and vitamin A sweet potato. A contingent valuation approach with a double-bounded dichotomous choice design was employed within a randomized information-treatment framework. Farmers were randomly assigned to a control group or to one of two information treatments emphasizing household-level nutritional benefits or combined household and public nutritional benefits of biofortified crops. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, and a bivariate probit model. The results indicate favorable perceptions toward biofortified crops, particularly regarding yield potential, marketability, resilience, and ease of commercialization. More than 98% of respondents expressed willingness to adopt biofortified crops. The estimated average WTA suggests that farmers are willing to allocate approximately 66% of their cultivated land to biofortified crop production. The findings further reveal that information treatments significantly influence adoption intentions. Farmers exposed to information emphasizing both household and broader public nutritional benefits were significantly more likely to adopt biofortified crops compared with those receiving only basic information. Agricultural training, awareness of biofortified crops, and participation in commercial seed systems also positively influenced willingness to adopt. In contrast, larger proposed land allocations reduced the probability of adoption, indicating that farmers may prefer gradual adoption strategies under conditions of uncertainty. The study concludes that biofortified crops have substantial potential for scaling among smallholder farming systems in West Africa. However, sustained adoption will require strengthened seed systems, nutrition-sensitive extension services, awareness campaigns, and improved market development. The findings provide important policy insights for governments, development organizations, and agricultural research institutions seeking to promote nutrition-sensitive agricultural innovations and combat hidden hunger in the region. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404518 |
| By: | Dai, Shangze; Guan, Zhengfei; Ji, James |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how geopolitical risk reshapes food security strategies, agricultural land allocation, trade, productivity, and environmental outcomes. We argue that rising geopolitical uncertainty increases concerns over the availability and reliability of external food supplies, encouraging countries to adopt defensive strategies centered on domestic agricultural capacity. Using a country-year panel from 2016 to 2022 that combines geopolitical risk measures with land-cover data, agricultural trade flows, agricultural total factor productivity, ecological footprint indicators, and macroeconomic controls, we document several findings. Higher geopolitical risk is associated with agricultural land expansion, forest loss, and weaker urbanization, suggesting that food security concerns raise the strategic value of domestic agricultural land. Geopolitical risk also reduces agricultural exports and net agricultural exports, while its effect on imports is weaker and statistically insignificant, indicating a retreat from trade-oriented specialization. These adjustments are accompanied by lower agricultural total factor productivity and a larger ecological footprint, consistent with resource misallocation and environmental pressure induced by defensive agricultural expansion. The effects are generally weaker among net agricultural exporters, which face less pressure to expand domestic production capacity because of their stronger initial food-supply position. These findings reveal a trade-off between national resilience and economic and environmental efficiency: strategies designed to secure food availability under geopolitical uncertainty may reduce external vulnerability, but they can also generate land-use distortions, productivity losses, and environmental costs. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404631 |
| By: | Magezi, Eustadius; Nakano, Yuko; Tsujimoto, Yasuhiro |
| Abstract: | Balancing environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity is a major global challenge. In particular, increasing crop productivity while reducing fertilizer inputs is central to achieving sustainable intensification among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study evaluates the impact of P-dipping—an innovative technique for lowland rice production that enables farmers to achieve high yield with a small amount of fertilizer by placing a triple superphosphate (TSP) fertilizer near the root system at transplanting— on yield, income, and profit. Despite the technological advantages of P-dipping, its diffusion would require improvements in the fertilizer supply chain, as TSP fertilizer remains largely unavailable in rural markets. We conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to answer two primary questions: the effectiveness of P-dipping training for farmers on productivity, and whether providing training to both farmers and local fertilizer retailers would enhance the development of the TSP market. We compared three groups: a control group without training, farmers trained only, and farmers trained together with fertilizer retailers. We find that the adoption of P-dipping increased fertilizer use efficiency by 10.6 to 14.0 kilograms of paddy per kilogram of fertilizer applied. Furthermore, the adoption increased rice yield by 6.9 to 14.1 kilograms per are compared to non-P-dipping plots, resulting in higher income and profit even under an international fertilizer price surge that occurred in 2022 during the experimental period from 2021 to 2024. Our intention-to-treatment effects show that providing P-dipping training to both farmers and fertilizer retailers results in more sustained adoption than training farmers only. Retailers, however, stopped stocking TSP when project logistical support ended, resulting in a decline in adoption rates. These findings suggest that while P-dipping can significantly improve fertilizer use efficiency and productivity, its long-term success depends on viable supply chains. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404653 |
| By: | Haqiqi, Iman; Doelman, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Global conservation initiatives, including the Kunming–Montreal Global Framework's 30×30 target, require policy instruments that determine not only how much land is protected, but also where protection occurs. Yet most economic assessments of conservation policies rely on highly aggregated representations of land use that cannot capture spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem value, agricultural productivity, or opportunity costs. As a result, they provide limited insight into how alternative conservation designs influence land-use displacement, trade, and economic outcomes. This paper evaluates the economic and land-use consequences of alternative spatial conservation policies using a high-resolution gridded equilibrium model of global agriculture. We implement a set of land-conversion taxes within SIMPLE-G, a spatially explicit modeling framework that represents agricultural production, consumption, trade, and land allocation across 2.3 million grid cells worldwide. All policy scenarios achieve the same conservation objective, maintaining at least 30 percent natural land within each region-biome, but differ in their degree of spatial targeting. We compare uniform taxes applied broadly across landscapes with priority-targeted and differentiated tax schemes that concentrate conservation efforts in ecologically valuable locations. The results demonstrate that the spatial design of conservation policy is a first-order determinant of economic and environmental outcomes. Priority-targeted policies achieve conservation goals more efficiently by concentrating land withdrawal in high-value areas, but they also generate greater leakage through the relocation of agricultural production and land-use change to non-target regions. Uniform policies reduce leakage by spreading adjustments more broadly, although at higher aggregate economic cost. We further show that intermediate policy designs defined at the biome-region level capture much of the efficiency gain associated with highly targeted interventions while reducing implementation complexity. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for spatial heterogeneity and market-mediated feedbacks when evaluating large-scale conservation policies. More broadly, they demonstrate that conservation outcomes depend not only on the extent of protection but also on the spatial allocation of conservation effort within an interconnected global food system. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404494 |
| By: | McFadden, Jonathan; Rosburg, Alicia; Lim, Katherine; Arbuckle, J. Gordon |
| Abstract: | Digital agriculture is typically evaluated through productivity and environmental outcomes, yet its heterogeneous effects on farmers’ wellbeing remain poorly understood. Using Iowa farmer survey data, we estimate associations between five digital technologies and eleven wellbeing outcomes and interpret those patterns using thematic coding of farmers’ open-ended comments to assess how digitalization has changed farming and farmer wellbeing. Autosteer is consistently associated with reduced fatigue and higher productivity, whereas yield monitoring and mapping show weaker and narrower benefits. Drones align with coordination- and stressrelated benefits, and variable-rate systems with time-flexibility outcomes. Digital agriculture (DA) is chiefly framed as a transformative pathway to more efficient, resilient, and sustainable global food production1, 2. Precision guidance, automated sensing, highly detailed geospatial data, and decision-support tools can help farmers manage within-field variability while reducing input use and improving the timing of operations1, 3, 4. Yet these technologies also reorganize farm work, reshape how information is interpreted, and redistribute responsibilities between farmers and digital systems2, 5. For farmers and their households, such changes may be as meaningful as improvements in yields or input efficiency6. A growing literature examines both the promise and risks of DA. Some studies emphasize its role in sustainability monitoring, precision input use, and climate-smart management1–3. Others highlight a set of tangible risks, including heightened surveillance, data ownership and privacy concerns, technological lock-in, and power imbalances between farmers and technology providers5. Qualitative and critical social-science scholarship has argued that digitalization reorganizes labor, expertise, and control within farming systems5, 7, 8, raising concerns about farmer autonomy and broader inequities, but quantitative evidence remains limited on how specific technologies have affected multiple dimensions of farmer wellbeing in large samples, and on how these patterns align with farmers’ own accounts of daily work. Policies promoting DA often implicitly assume that technologies generating productivity, environmental, or resilience gains improve farmer welfare9. Yet if technologies redistribute stress, time burdens, managerial complexity, or technological dependency unevenly across farmers and/or tools, then adoption incentives may produce mixed wellbeing outcomes even when agronomic performance improves. Understanding how diverse technologies influence farmer wellbeing differently is therefore important not only for food systems research, but for designing targeted policies to improve rural livelihoods in the face of fundamental changes to the labor structure of farming. We address this gap by evaluating DA through the lens of multidimensional farmer wellbeing, moving beyond conventional evaluations focused mainly on adoption and productivity. We estimate how five common digital technologies—autosteer, yield monitors, soil mapping, variable rate equipment, and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) —associate with eleven wellbeing outcomes—time pressure, physical labor, non-farm time, time flexibility, multiple forms of stress, fatigue, technology-failure pressures, and perceived productivity—and interpret these patterns using farmers’ own accounts. Our approach connects DA research with broader food-systems work emphasizing trade-offs, sustainable transitions, and farmer decision-making with direct evidence on the lived experience of farm work4, 10–12. We show that DA impacts vary systematically across technologies and wellbeing dimensions, with a redistribution of physical, cognitive, and managerial burdens that are highly tool specific. Reported adoption rates broadly align with representative adoption estimates from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) for Iowa and the broader Midwest (Table S1.1), supporting external validity in a major U.S. field crop adoption setting. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404611 |
| By: | Islam, Md Sayemul; Atwood, Joseph; Nugent, Paul; Belasco, Eric |
| Abstract: | Precision agriculture (PA) and conservation tillage (CT) are promoted as risk-reducing innovations that can stabilize yields, improve input efficiency, and enhance environmental performance. Yet, if these technologies reduce production risk, they may also change farmers’ demand for federally subsidized crop insurance—an underexplored policy interaction. This study evaluates whether Virginia’s Conservation Tillage and Precision Agriculture Equipment Tax Credit—a refundable state income tax credit that subsidizes eligible PA and CT equipment purchases—affects crop insurance coverage choices for corn producers. Leveraging the tax credit as a natural experiment, we assemble a county-by-year panel combining USDA Summary of Business (SoB) crop insurance outcomes with Risk Management Agency (RMA) measures of premiums, liability, and yields over 1999–2023. We estimate a difference-in-differences model with county and year fixed effects, using an acres-weighted effective coverage rate as the primary outcome and controlling for planted area and lagged yields. Results indicate that the tax credit is associated with a statistically meaningful decline in effective coverage—approximately a 0.019-unit reduction—consistent with farmers lowering coverage after adopting risk-mitigating technologies. Findings are robust across alternative specifications and are not sensitive to statespecific time trends. Overall, the evidence suggests that state incentives for PA/CT adoption can generate spillovers into the federal crop insurance program, with potential implications for producer risk-management strategies, insurance pricing, and the public cost of premium subsidies. Keywords: precision agriculture, conservation tillage, tax credits, crop insurance, difference-in-differences, risk management. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404770 |
| By: | Tong, Jingyi; Comito, Jacqueline; Zhang, Wendong |
| Abstract: | Edge-of-field conservation practices can reduce nutrient losses from agricultural landscapes, but adoption remains limited, especially for structural practices that require land-use change and program participation. This paper examines whether the gender of farmer messengers affects Iowa farmers’ willingness to adopt water quality enhancement wetlands (WQEW). We use a 2024 online survey experiment in which farmers and landowners were randomly assigned to receive no supplemental information or farmer-messenger treatments that varied messenger gender, delivery format, and wildlife-benefit content. Respondents then answered a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation question under randomized cost-share offers. Logit models with respondent gender interactions show strongly gender-asymmetric messenger effects. Female farmers respond much more strongly to male farmer messengers than to female farmer messengers, and male messengers largely close the predicted adoption gap between female and male farmers. Male farmers, by contrast, are largely messenger-neutral. Message format also matters: a video treatment with wildlife benefits reduces the messenger-gender gap among female farmers. Willingness-to-accept estimates show that respondents are relatively insensitive to the offered cost-share range and often require compensation above full cost reimbursement. The information treatments have economically meaningful shadow values, especially for female farmers, by lowering implied compensation requirements for WQEW adoption. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404878 |
| By: | Liang, Xiaomeng; Yang, Chenyujing; Xue, Yongji |
| Abstract: | Balancing ecological restoration and grain production is a central challenge in sustainable land management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Large-scale ecological engineering programs are often perceived as potentially limiting agricultural output due to land-use competition; however, causal evidence regarding their long-term impacts and underlying mechanisms remains limited. This study examines whether and how China’s Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) influences grain production. Guided by the social–ecological systems framework and ecosystem-services theory, we hypothesize that ecological restoration enhances agricultural output through improvements in ecosystem services rather than by crowding out cropland. Using county-level panel data from 2000 to 2022, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) model, parallel trend test, placebo test, and multiple robustness checks to estimate causal effects. Mechanism analysis integrates grain production data with satellite-derived vegetation indices, air quality indicators, and ecosystem quality measures. Our results indicate that the TNSFP significantly increases county-level grain production, with effects robust to controls for agricultural inputs, climate, and socioeconomic conditions. Mechanism analyses reveal that enhanced vegetation cover, improved air quality, and overall ecosystem quality jointly promote grain production. Significant regional heterogeneity is observed: the policy effect is stronger in Northeast and North China, positively moderated by cropland area and negatively moderated by the relief degree of land surface. These findings provide new causal evidence that ecological restoration can achieve synergistic gains in land restoration and food production, offering practical implications for sustainable land management in dryland regions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404477 |
| By: | Zhao, Xuemei; Yu, Xiaohua |
| Abstract: | Cost–price squeeze (CPS) is an important but under-measured form of producer-side stress in food systems. It occurs when rising production costs are not sufficiently matched by output-price adjustments, resulting in compressed producer margins. While existing research has documented agricultural profitability pressures in specific commodities or countries, less is known about the conditions under which CPS emerges across global staple crop systems. This paper examines the drivers of CPS using a harmonized country–year panel for maize, wheat, and rice systems over 2000–2023. Building on an outcome-based CPS indicator developed in a companion pattern paper, we estimate fixed-effects models, fertilizer shock-exposure specifications, placebo tests, and machine-learning prediction models. The results show that exchange-rate pressure is the most stable external predictor of CPS risk, suggesting that macro-external price exposure plays an important role in producer margin stress. More importantly, global fertilizer price shocks disproportionately increase CPS risk in countries with higher pre-period fertilizer intensity. This shock-exposure result remains robust after controlling for lagged macroeconomic, food-trade, agricultural-structure, and climate variables, while a lead-shock placebo is statistically insignificant. Nutrient-specific estimates indicate that nitrogen exposure is the most consistent fertilizer-related channel. Machine-learning models provide complementary predictive validation: Random Forest, XGBoost, and LASSO-logit models achieve meaningful out-of-sample performance, and fertilizer shock exposure, nitrogen shock exposure, food-trade variables, and global fertilizer shocks rank among the most important predictors. The findings suggest that CPS risk emerges from the interaction between external cost shocks and country-specific exposure structures, highlighting the importance of monitoring input dependence as an early-warning indicator of food-system vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404541 |
| By: | Li, Yuan; Dai, Rao |
| Abstract: | Farm scale expansion in smallholder agriculture requires access to land and the capacity to organize production. Under land fragmentation, households that rent in additional land must still organize labor, machinery, timing, and management across dispersed plots. This paper examines whether outsourced agricultural services facilitate farm operational scale expansion in rural China. Using household data from the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey and complementary panel evidence from the National Fixed-Point Survey, this paper studies the association between service adoption and three scale-related outcomes: operated land area, number of operated plots, and net land inflow. The empirical analysis combines double/debiased machine learning with instrumental-variable checks, panel-data robustness using the National Fixed-Point Survey, and sensitivity tests for skewed land distributions and initial land endowment. Service adoption is positively associated with operated land area across DML specifications and remains robust to alternative estimators, log and winsorized outcomes, exclusions of upper-tail farms, and controls for initial land endowment. Complementary estimates suggest that service adoption is also associated with fewer operated plots and a higher probability of net land inflow. Mechanism tests using yield per mu and trust provide suggestive evidence that services relax operating constraints and improve the transaction environment. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the association varies by farm size, farmer age, agricultural income dependence, and service type, with management-oriented services showing stronger associations than basic mechanized services. The findings suggest that service markets can complement land rental markets by reducing the post-rental production and coordination costs that constrain scale formation under land fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404384 |
| By: | Fitzsimmons, Jill |
| Abstract: | The expansion of utility-scale solar energy is expected to require millions of acres of land in the United States, increasing pressure on agricultural landscapes and raising concerns regarding farmland preservation, rural identity, and food production. Agrivoltaics, which combines agricultural production and solar energy generation on the same parcel of land, has been proposed as a strategy to reduce land-use conflicts between renewable energy development and agriculture. While previous studies find that the public generally prefers agrivoltaics to conventional utility-scale solar, little evidence exists regarding how consumers value agrivoltaics relative to continued agricultural production or other competing land uses. This study evaluates public acceptance of agrivoltaics using a discrete choice experiment administered to 6, 332 adult consumers across thirty-seven U.S. states with commercial apple production. Respondents repeatedly chose whether to purchase apples from farm stands associated with traditional apple production, agrivoltaics, utility-scale solar, or residential development. Choice attributes also varied the share of land-use revenues accruing to farmers, subsidy status, travel time, and apple price. The survey incorporated randomized information treatments and elicited measures of risk preferences and social preferences. Results indicate substantial heterogeneity in willingness to pay for agrivoltaics. On average, respondents prefer maintaining agricultural production relative to converting farmland to utility scale solar or residential development. Willingness to pay for agrivoltaics is not statistically different from continued agricultural production in the full sample. However, urban respondents exhibit a positive willingness to pay for agrivoltaics, whereas rural respondents exhibit a negative willingness to pay. Higher farmer revenue shares significantly increase support for land-use change, while the absence of subsidies reduces acceptance of solar-related development. Additional analyses indicate that support for agrivoltaics varies systematically with political ideology and risk preferences. The findings suggest that public acceptance of renewable-energy development on agricultural land depends not only on energy production outcomes but also on perceptions of agricultural land as a provider of public goods and on the distribution of economic benefits associated with land-use change. Policies that preserve agricultural functions, support increased and transparent revenues for farmers, and account for place-based differences in public preferences may improve acceptance of agrivoltaic development during the renewable-energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404505 |
| By: | Manners, Rhys; Warner, James |
| Abstract: | This research uses high-frequency food price data from more than 60 Rwandan markets integrated with bi-weekly dietary consumption data collected during two periods in 2021/22 and 2023/24. During these periods considerable price fluctuations were observed, providing a unique opportunity to track consumption responses to large price instability created by global shocks. |
| Keywords: | monitoring; impact; price volatility; food consumption; food prices; Rwanda; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:rssppn:178417 |
| By: | Matej Opatrny (Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies & Charles University Environment Center); Milan Scasny (Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies & Charles University Environment Center); Csilla Farkas (Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO)); Mikael Skou Andersen (Aarhus University); David Zilberman (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a social benefit-cost analysis (BCA) of Precision Agriculture (PA)and Enhanced Efficiency Fertilizers (EEF) for reducing nitrate pollution in the Zelivka catchment, the drinking-water source for 1.5 million people in Prague and surrounding regions. The analysis combines field-level data (50, 309 ha, 729 farms), meta-analytical biophysical parameters, a dynamic heterogeneous-agent adoption model, and cross-validation against an independent SWAT+ hydrological simulation. Technology adoption generates a mean Net Present Value of EUR 291 million (95% CI: EUR 94 775 million) over fifty years, with a deterministic benefit-cost ratio of 19.8. Even with health benefits set to zero, the NPV remains positive at EUR 44 million, indicating that private benefits alone cover adoption costs. BCA and the SWAT+ approaches imply comparable rates of reservoir-concentration decline (≈0.15 mg/L/yr in SWAT+ over its lag-free window versus a ≈0.13 mg/L/yr peak in the BCA once the lag has elapsed). At-source nitrogen prevention via agricultural technology adoption offers a cost-effective complement to structural catchment measures and end-of-pipe water treatment. |
| Keywords: | benefit-cost analysis; precision agriculture; enhanced efficiency fertilizers; nitrogen pollution; water quality; technology adoption |
| JEL: | D61 Q12 Q15 Q25 Q51 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_18 |
| By: | Adhikari, Prabin; Ojha, Laxmi Narayan; Kassas, Bachir |
| Abstract: | Catastrophic crop diseases are widely assumed to accelerate the conversion of farmland to urban uses, yet rigorous causal evidence on the destination of land released from agriculture is scarce. We use the spread of huanglongbing (HLB), or citrus greening, in Florida as a natural experiment to estimate where land flows after a severe and persistent productivity shock. Combining USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service citrus surveys with the annual USDA Cropland Data Layer for the period 2008 to 2023, we construct a county-level yield-loss proxy for HLB severity and exploit two complementary identification strategies: a within-Florida two-way fixed effects design across fourteen citrus counties, and a matched difference-in-differences design that uses California citrus counties, which were largely unaffected by HLB during the sample period, as a counterfactual. We find that a one-unit increase in the production pressure due to HLB is associated with a 28 percent annual decline in citrus acreage and a meaningful reallocation of land toward forest and shrub cover (1.7 percentage points) and lower-value agricultural uses (0.7 percentage points), with a small and generally insignificant effect on developed land. The matched differencein-differences design corroborates this pattern: treated counties lost 3.8 percentage points of citrus share after 2012, while developed land grew by less than one percentage point. Results are stable across robustness checks that include house price controls, climate covariates, and the exclusion of hurricane years. A complementary analysis suggests that depressed land values in former citrus counties may have facilitated utility-scale solar development after 2016. The findings indicate that even severe and incurable plant disease shocks generate land-use adjustment primarily within agriculture and toward natural reversion rather than urbanization, with implications for farmland protection policy, rural development, and the design of disease-response programs. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404740 |
| By: | Huang, Teng; Zhang, Xinshuang; Tan, Zhaofeng; Liu, Tianjun |
| Abstract: | The adoption of improved crop varieties has long been a key driver of agricultural transformation in developing countries. While the existing literature has documented the achievements of the Green Revolution, an important question remains unanswered: How do agricultural technologies translate into improvements in individual nutritional outcomes? Are the nutritional benefits associated with improved wheat varieties driven by the grain itself, or by the labor savings they generate? To address this question, we construct an individual-level dataset comprising 45, 278 observations from 49 counties across nine provinces in China over the period 1991–2011. Using a two-way fixed effects model, we find that the adoption of improved wheat varieties significantly increases overall nutrient intake among local residents. In particular, it leads to higher consumption of fat and protein, while having no significant effect on carbohydrate intake.Further analysis reveals that the nutritional benefits of improved wheat varieties do not primarily arise from increased agricultural output or farm income. Instead, improved varieties reduce labor requirements in agricultural production, facilitating the reallocation of agricultural labor to non-agricultural sectors. This labor reallocation, in turn, contributes to improved nutritional outcomes. These findings provide important policy implications for agricultural technology diffusion and structural transformation in developing countries. To maximize the benefits of improved seed technologies, governments should not only promote the adoption of improved varieties but also implement complementary human capital support policies that facilitate labor mobility and non-farm employment opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404619 |
| By: | Harstad, Bård |
| Abstract: | There appears to be a tension between proponents of trade and environmental activists. This paper shows, however, how trade can motivate environmental conservation. I first analyze a standard trade model, where trade-specific investments (e.g., deforestation) causes environmental damage. In this model, a traditional trade agreements will cause more thus deforestation. Next, I investigate the extent to which a contingent trade agreement (CTA), where default tariffs can vary with changes in the production capacity (e.g., forest cover), can motivate conservation. The model permits many products, countries, and collaborators. A numerical example suggests that growth and liberalization can cause Brazil's agricultural area to expand by 27%, but this expansion can be avoided if the EU and the US offer a CTA. |
| Keywords: | International trade |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F55 Q37 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20037 |
| By: | Xie, Ziqing; Sawerengera, Jane; Wang, Jingjing |
| Abstract: | In a rapidly growing world, conventional agriculture is under pressure from climate change and is struggling to meet the growing food demand while protecting the environment. Adopting new technologies like Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA), where farming is done in controlled environments shielded from external climate fluctuations, can ensure climate resilience. This paper develops a dynamic bioeconomic model of aquaponic production in which fish biomass is both a harvestable stock and a source of nutrients for plant production. The model links fish growth, waste generation, plant nutrient availability, fertilizer substitution, repeated plant harvests, and terminal fish harvest timing in a unified private-profit framework. The central mechanism is intertemporal: fish biomass evolves over a long production cycle, while leafy vegetables can be harvested repeatedly over shorter cycles. As fish biomass increases, fish-generated waste raises plant-available nutrients and can reduce the need for purchased fertilizer. A calibrated tilapia-kale application illustrates the model. In the baseline simulation, the profit-maximizing tilapia harvest occurs after approximately 262 days, while kale is harvested on a 27-day cycle. Repeated kale harvests generate revenue before the terminal fish harvest and therefore affect farm cash flow as well as fertilizer demand. Sensitivity analysis shows that fish profit is most responsive to biological growth conditions, especially temperature, and to revenue-side parameters such as fish price and harvestable-output share. Kale profit is driven primarily by crop price, harvestable yield, and production scale. The results show that the value of aquaponic integration depends not only on nutrient recycling, but also on the timing of biological growth, nutrient availability, and harvest decisions. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404315 |
| By: | Sapkota, Sushil; Gitungwa, Henriette; Gustafson, Christopher; Rose, Devin |
| Abstract: | Pulses provide well-documented health and environmental benefits, yet remain underconsumed. In fact, pulses are a critical element in the movement to shift diets towards plant-based foods to improve human and environmental health: they are both a protein food and a vegetable food. While surveys and choice experiments show significant percentages of consumers interested in pulse-containing foods, sales data do not reflect these claims. A potential explanation is that simple research environments eliminate cognitive or search costs for attributes that constitute a small percentage of products. Recent work on rational inattention theory predicts that these costs will lead decision-makers to limit the set of items/information they consider. In the food retail environments, attention is likely to be driven by individual priorities (e.g., taste, health, price sensitivity, etc.). To examine these mechanisms, we conducted an online experiment with 831 U.S. adults in which participants selected foods in large product sets (50 items/category) across six product categories under two pulse-prevalence conditions (10% vs. 20% of products). Immediately after completing the food choices, participants completed an ecological momentary assessment-style question capturing what they were actively thinking about while making food choices. They then rated how important taste, food prices, healthiness, and environmental impact are when making food choices. Mixed-effects logit and mediation analyses indicate that both environmental and health importance ratings are positively associated with pulse product selection. Environmental importance also exhibits a statistically significant indirect effect through active consideration of environment during choice, while the indirect pathway through active consideration of health is not statistically significant. Increasing pulse prevalence more than doubles the odds of choosing pulses without affecting self-reported consideration. Overall, the findings suggest that policies highlighting environmental attributes while increasing the availability of pulse-based products may be particularly effective in encouraging sustainable food choices, as they target both attention to sustainability information and the accessibility of sustainable options. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404428 |
| By: | Cai, Yetian; Guan, Zhengfei; Wang, Le; Weng, Weizhe |
| Abstract: | Managed trade policies are widely used in agricultural markets and have attracted renewed attention amid rising trade protectionism, yet their environmental consequences remain poorly understood. Managed trade policies, which refer to government interventions that utilize quantitative trade restrictions to achieve specific, measurable outcomes, have garnered significant recent attention. While such policies have long been used in agricultural and food markets to support commodity prices and shield domestic producers from international competition, the empirical evidence on their environmental consequences is notably limited, especially within the context of agricultural commodities in developed economies. Using the 2014 U.S.–Mexico Suspension Agreement as a quasi-experiment, this paper presents the first empirical study to quantify the causal environmental consequences of shifting from free trade to a managed trade agreement. Exploiting agronomic constraints that tie sugarcane production to sugar mill proximity, we employ a spatial difference-in-differences design with high-resolution remote sensing data on agricultural fires and land use. There are three primary findings. First, we document an approximately 15% increase in agricultural fires in treated fields three years later, with effects varying by exposure intensity. Second, results show substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The increase in fire activity only significantly happen in Louisiana and is concentrated in the early harvest window. Third, the surge primarily driven by land-use conversion rather than intensified burning on existing sugarcane fields. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that these effects translate into approximately $238 million in annual environmental costs, reflecting increased smoke-related mortality and wetland ecosystem loss. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404360 |
| By: | Majeed, Fahd; Cooper, Joseph; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing |
| Abstract: | The potential for cover cropping to reduce the riskiness of row crop yields has led to interest in considering crop insurance premium subsidies as a mechanism to induce adoption. We develop an integrated framework that links an economic model with a biogeochemical model to analyze the incentives for a utility- maximizing farmer, with varying risk and time preferences, to adopt cover cropping across spatially heterogeneous counties in the rainfed region of the United States. We use this framework to examine the effects of increasing insurance premium subsidies linked to cover cropping on the level and spatial pattern of cover cropping and its implications for policy costs. Our results show that both without and with 20 insurance subsidy policy interventions, farmers do not have an incentive to adopt cover crops in the 21 Midwest. But crop insurance subsidies for cover cropping can be effective in incentivizing adoption 22 the Great Plains and southern states where premiums are higher and net costs of cover cropping lower. 23 We find that the actuarially fair reduction in insurance premiums for cover cropping would be about 24 $5-7 per acre per year in the Midwest, which is not enough to meet the costs of cover cropping, and 25 $25-40 per acre per year in the southern states and Great Plains. Additionally, we show that when crop 26 insurance is already heavily subsidized, additional subsidies linked to cover cropping do not 27 significantly affect the downside risk, which is already largely covered. Lastly, we show that crop 28 insurance subsidies alongside a uniform per-acre payment for cover cropping of $30 per acre can 29 incentivize some adoption in the Midwest by meeting cover cropping costs and monetizing the risk 30 reduction it provides. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404396 |
| By: | Schling, Maja; Salazar, Lina; Perez Massard, Renee Gabriela; Barbosa, Daniel; Chang Huaita, Rodrigo Ysaac; Lee, Dasun |
| Abstract: | This study reviews a decade of rigorously evaluated IDB-supported agricultural interventions in Latin America and the Caribbean. The evidence base encompasses five major intervention categories: input and technology transfers, rural infrastructure, land regularization and administration, extension services and capacity-building, and animal and plant health. Five key findings emerge. First, productivity impacts are inherently dynamic and often require medium- and long-term data to fully capture the transformation of productive systems. Second, agricultural programs can generate substantial welfare gains, including improvements in food security, resilience, and inclusion, even in the absence of immediate increases in productivity or income. Third, heterogeneous impacts across gender and other population groups are highly relevant but remain insufficiently explored. Fourth, the measurement of spillover effects provides valuable insights into the broader development effectiveness of agricultural interventions beyond direct beneficiaries. Finally, combining survey data with remote sensing offers a powerful complementary approach that expands the scope of impact measurement and helps overcome many of the limitations of traditional field-based data collection. The study concludes with practical recommendations to strengthen the design, implementation, and evaluation of future agricultural development programs. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Policies;Impact Evaluation;Agricultural productivity;rural development;Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | O13 Q16 Q18 C93 O22 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14670 |
| By: | Chakravorty, Rwit; Tsiboe, Francis; Turner, Dylan; Arita, Shawn |
| Abstract: | On July 21, 2026, USDA announced its intention to restore the prevented planting (PP) buy-up option under the Federal Crop Insurance Program after eliminating it through the Expanding Access to Risk Protection rule for the 2026 crop year. The buy-up option allows producers to increase prevented planting coverage by 5 percent above the standard coverage factor, providing additional protection against weather-related planting delays. This brief reviews the policy reversal, summarizes the regulatory and legislative developments leading to the restoration, and synthesizes evidence from recent Agricultural Risk Policy Center research on the performance of the buy-up option. Historical program data indicate that policies electing buy-up coverage did not exhibit higher aggregate underwriting losses than comparable policies without the option. Using USDA Risk Management Agency data, the brief also documents the geographic and commodity concentration of buy-up use, showing that benefits have been greatest in the Prairie Pothole Region, particularly for corn and soybean producers in North Dakota and South Dakota. Finally, the brief discusses the implications of USDA's announcement for producers, lenders, and crop insurers, while highlighting the key implementation decisions that the Risk Management Agency must address before restoration can take effect for the 2027 crop year. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:404881 |
| By: | Adabrah-Danquah, Vera; Hobbs, Lonnie; Britton, Logan |
| Abstract: | Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks can generate severe economic losses through supply chain disruptions, trade restrictions, carcass disposal costs, and consumer demand shocks, even though FMD poses no direct risk to human health. One proposed strategy for reducing these losses is to redirect recovered livestock protein into alternative downstream outlets, including pet food. This study evaluates U.S. consumer acceptance of pet food products containing livestock protein associated with a hypothetical FMD outbreak and compares pet food with other potential value-recovery outlets. Using an online stated-preference survey, we estimate willingness to pay for pet food attributes related to protein formulation, infection-zone status, country origin, vaccination disclosure, and price. We also compare these findings with consumer valuation of beef products and a two-stage ranking exercise measuring preferences for alternative downstream uses of meat from animals recovered from FMD. Results indicate that acceptance of recovered livestock protein is highly conditional. Pet owners required a substantial discount for pet food products sourced from a U.S. infected zone, while products sourced from U.S. noninfected zones received the highest valuation. Vaccination disclosure generated a positive willingness-to-pay premium, suggesting that consumers value information signaling disease management and oversight. Pet owners also preferred single-protein beef formulations over blended alternatives. The ranking exercise showed that pet food was viewed as a moderately acceptable downstream use, though indirect uses such as industrial applications and feed for nonfood animals received stronger support. These findings suggest that pet food may serve as a supplementary value-recovery outlet during FMD events, but its effectiveness would depend on transparent labeling, credible safety assurances, price discounts, consumer trust, and the ability of supply chains to manage segregation, verification, and coordination costs. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404582 |
| By: | Tian, Yixin; Shanoyan, Aleksan |
| Abstract: | Economic theory suggests that processor concentration typically harms agricultural producers through buyer monopoly power. However, long-run models indicate that highly concentrated processors may act as a buffer during severe supply chain disruptions. The low water levels on the Mississippi River in the fall of 2022 led to a significant decline in barge capacity, disrupting export channels for inland farms. This provided a natural experiment to test this theoretical trade-off. Using weekly county-level panel data on corn basis differentials across seven U.S. states during harvest weeks from 2018 to 2024, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to isolate the impact of local ethanol processor concentration, represented by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), during the shock period. The model strictly controls for distance from the Mississippi River and local drought severity to ensure that the HHI mechanism operates independently. We find strong evidence of a buffering effect: during the crisis, a 5, 000-point increase in the HHI was associated with an increase of approximately $0.04 per bushel in the basis. This effect exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity: it is dominant in states deep inland (Kansas, NorthDakota, SouthDakota, Nebraska); in river in estates (Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas), the basis is primarily influenced by distance from the river. However, tests of the transmission mechanism using farm-level panel data from Kansas indicate that this loca lprice buffer did not translate into higher net farm income. In particular, for corn-dependent farms, drought-induced yield losses ultimately offset the price gains from the basis phase. Ultimately, these findings provide key parameters regarding the benefits of price buffering that are currently missing from the antitrust framework. This suggests that highly concentrated processors in inland regions actually serve as a critical regional buffer. Antitrust policymakers should consider the positive impact of processor concentration on supply chain resilience, especially in the inland states. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404321 |
| By: | Willwerth, Hanna; Janzen, Sarah; Michelson, Hope C.; Hultgren, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Climate change is increasing weather variability across Sub-Saharan Africa, exacerbating uncertainty in agricultural production. Farmers can adapt to changes in expected growing conditions by shifting between maize seed maturity types. Local input providers, agro-dealers, facilitate adaptation by determining which seeds are available to farmers even as dealers grapple with demand uncertainty. In this context of market and production risks, seasonal forecasts can help agro-dealers and farmers align their expectations of upcoming growing seasons. Using a panel of 748 agro-dealers from 2021 to 2023 and leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in seasonal forecasts across counties, we study adaptation responses in Kenyan maize seed markets. We build a theoretical framework to model how forecasts influence expected demand and agro-dealer stocking decisions, and how this can vary by agro-ecological zone. This framework motivates our estimation of the reduced form equilibrium response of realized seed sales to forecasts, which embed both supply and demand decisions. We specifically estimate the marginal change in the maturity profile of maize seed sold when the forecast deviates from normal. We find that the portfolio of maize seed sold shifts in response to forecasts, but that adjustments are relatively small and vary across zones. In the highlands, the maturity profile of seed sold falls by 11 days when the forecast is below-average and rises by 10 days when it is above-average, approximately 8% of the mean days to maturity under a normal forecast. Seed sales in the marginal and wet upper mid-altitude zone exhibit near-zero response to forecasts. This paper provides new evidence on the supply-side use of seasonal forecasts, highlighting the role of agro-dealers in facilitating short-run climate adaptation |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404656 |
| By: | Ehmke, Mariah; Okrent, Abigail; Awad, Koroles; McCluskey, Jill; Restrepo, Brandon |
| Abstract: | Differentiating food products by level of industrial food processing is essential to measuring relationships among food processing, food demand, and public health. The Circana (formerly known as IRI) scanner data lacks identified measures of food product processing, but contains other food product descriptors that can be used to predict the processing of food products. This report specifies procedures to use Natural Language Processing with a Naïve Bayes model in Python’s scikit-learn to efficiently classify retail food purchases by level of food processing according to the NOVA food classification system. This method accurately predicts NOVA classification 94 percent using only the food item descriptions as predictors. Based on this classification we find 60 percent of retail food sales to be ultraprocessed in 2023, an increase from 55 percent in 2020. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404883 |
| By: | Budhathoki, Srijan; McCluskey, Jill |
| Abstract: | Plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) have been marketed as a tool for reducing the environmental footprint of food consumption, yet their actual market performance and policy relevance remain contested. Using the Nielsen Consumer Panel, we estimate an EASI demand system across conventional beef, conventional chicken, plant-based (PB) beef, PB chicken, and PBMA veggie products for the years 2021 to 2024, a period that follows the PBMA U.S. sales peak. Censored participation is corrected via the Shonkwiler-Yen two-step procedure with full categorical demographic controls in the selection stage. PBMA participation rates declined markedly across our sample period, yet PBMAs retain persistent price premiums over their conventional counterparts. We find that PBMAs are own-price elasticities are elastic, while conventional meats are approximately unit elastic. Hicksian cross-price elasticities reveal meaningful substitutability between PB beef and conventional beef and between PB chicken and conventional chicken, but Marshallian cross-price elasticity estimates are negative, reflecting dominant income effects. Policy simulations suggest that a carbon tax calibrated to the U.S. social cost of carbon would reduce household beef consumption by 8% to 20% and aggregate dietary greenhouse gas emissions by 6.5% to 16.2%, whereas a $0.10 per pound PBMA subsidy alone generates negligible emissions reductions. Combining the carbon tax with a PBMA subsidy yields marginally greater reductions. Heavy meat consumers and low-income households face disproportionately large absolute reductions in consumption under the carbon tax. Our results imply that demand-side climate policy in the food sector should prioritize consumption taxes on high-emission conventional meats over supply-side subsidies for alternatives. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404569 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Balana, Bedru; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Omamo, Steven Were |
| Abstract: | Nigeria faces a new wave of economic pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz causing sharp increases in global oil and fertilizer prices and threatening to reverse the recent decline in Nigeria’s food inflation. Although Nigeria could benefit from higher oil and fertilizer export revenues due to its expanding domestic refining and urea production capacity, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are already increasing pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare. At the same time, however, the crisis presents a strategic opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and reposition itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; impact; fuels; fertilizers; food prices; inflation; value chains; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2026–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:nssppn:183398 |
| By: | Liu, Rui; Lopez Barrera, Emiliano; Vieira, Dominic; Roe, Brian |
| Abstract: | Differences in pharmaceutical regulatory frameworks, including patent protection, approval 26 timelines, pricing policies, and market access conditions, shape the pace and scale of adoption of 27 anti-obesity medications such as glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists across 28 countries. Although these medicines are primarily discussed in health contexts, regulatory-driven 29 variation in adoption can induce large-scale dietary shifts that propagate through agri-food 30 systems. Here, we examine how heterogeneous regulatory environments influence GLP-1 31 diffusion and how the resulting behavioral changes translate into economy-wide adjustments in 32 U.S. agriculture, trade, welfare, factor markets, and environmental outcomes. We combine a Bass 33 diffusion model of pharmaceutical adoption with the GTAP-RD recursive dynamic computable 34 general equilibrium framework to simulate alternative adoption scenarios across North America through 2030, distinguishing between current clinical coverage and expanded weight-36 management access. Preliminary results suggest that asynchronous adoption across trading 37 partners alters relative demand conditions and shifts sectoral comparative advantages, generating 38 trade-mediated reallocation of U.S. production and export patterns. Within the United States, 39 agricultural land markets emerge as the primary adjustment margin, with land rents declining 40 substantially relative to baseline levels, while labor and capital markets remain comparatively 41 stable. Reduced output in emission-intensive sectors generates systematic declines in U.S. 42 production-side greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions, highlighting a tension between 43 environmental gains and pressures on agricultural land values. Overall, these findings suggest 44 that pharmaceutical regulation can act as an indirect driver of food-system transformation, 45 underscoring the importance of cross-sector policy perspectives when evaluating how emerging 46 health technologies reshape sustainability outcomes, trade relationships, and producer 47 livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404673 |
| By: | Gashaw T Abate (IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [Washington] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Tanguy Bernard (UB - Université de Bordeaux); Erwin Bulte (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Jérémy Do Nascimento Miguel (UB - Université de Bordeaux); Elisabeth Sadoulet (UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California) |
| Abstract: | When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to distinguish between quality levels and reward sellers accordingly. We study the adoption of TPC by traders in smallholder-based agricultural value chains in low-income countries, where traders aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors. In this context, the introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders' choice to purchase certified output from farmers. Next, using a novel lab-in-the-field experiment with Ethiopian wheat traders, we examine the model's predictions. Traders' willingness to specialize in certified output increases with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. However, we find that traders do not optimally respond to variation in the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We also analyze conditions where traders deviate from optimal behavior and discuss implications for research and policy making to promote TPC in smallholder-based value-chains. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Certification, Experiment, Markets |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05652525 |
| By: | Tripathy, Dr Sadasiba |
| Abstract: | Odisha’s announcement of procuring paddy at ₹3, 100 per quintal under the Samrudha Krushak Yojana is a notable state level intervention in terms of price support for agriculture. The central miscall of the key paddy minimum support price of the state input assistance policy is therefore expandable to beyond farm-gate price realization. This paper studies whether a higher procurement-linked paddy price can bolster rural youth livelihoods, induce seasonal labour demand, and create conditions for partial reverse migration in Odisha. The paper examines a wide range of verified secondary evidence on paddy MSP, state policy on procurement, PLFS labour indicators, MGNREGA person-days, and trend in paddy procurement in Odisha. The econometric component makes use of a clearly labelled illustrative district-level dataset for all 30 districts of Odisha since complete district-level public data linking youth employment and reverse migration is not available. Through the application of descriptive statistics, growth-rate analysis, correlation analysis and OLS regressions, we estimate the associations with agricultural procurement intensity, rural wages, availability of MGNREGA, irrigation, youth employment and potential for reverse migration. The results indicate that procurement-intense districts have better rural livelihood indicators and more reverse migration potential, but this effect is contingent on irrigation, transparent procurement, buffer stocks, milling capacity and non-farm value chain employment. The ₹3, 100 paddy procurement can give a fillip to rural employment and help in migrant reintegration but only when it comes with efficiency in procurement, crop diversification, development of rural enterprises, and skills formation directed to youth. |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bznea_v1 |
| By: | Mossa, Summer; Dharmasena, Senarath; Thompson, Troy |
| Abstract: | Drone‑based aerial application is a fast‑growing part of U.S. agriculture, but we still know little about how much farm income depends on these services in dollar terms (Agriculture Spraying Equipment Market (2025 - 2033) 2025). Farmers and custom applicators are interested in drones because they can spray quickly, reach hard‑to‑access areas, and apply pesticides more precisely than some traditional methods (Blake 2011). At the same time, drones are a new technology, and they can be costly to buy and operate compared to many ground sprayers (Talaeizadeh, et al. 2025). This study estimates the economic value of the agricultural drone application industry by asking a simple counterfactual question, what would happen to farm‑level revenue if drone‑based spraying were no longer an option (Hughes, Dharmasena and Martin 2022). We focus on Texas as a test case and examine five major Texas crops: corn, cotton, grain sorghum, soybeans, and wheat. Using existing data on crop acreage, yields, and prices, along with assumptions about how much acreage is treated with drones, we build a simulation model that compares current farm‑gate revenue with a scenario where drone spraying is removed and only partly replaced by other methods such as ground rigs. The model follows the basic structure used in earlier work (Hughes, Dharmasena and Martin 2024) on the value of the agricultural aerial application industry, but we simplify it by looking only at the producer side and only at the drone share of aerial applications. In the “no‑drones” 5 scenario, some of the acres that were previously sprayed by drones are assumed to be taken over by ground rigs, while other acres are left untreated or are treated too late, leading to yield losses and lower total revenue on those acres. A stochastic simulation is run to reflect uncertainty in the amount of acreage switched to ground rigs. By comparing simulated revenue with and without drones, the resulting difference in yield and revenue is the economic value attributable to drone use. The losses represent amounts occurring if drone applications were not available. The counterfactual result places a lower‑bound value on the contribution of the drone application industry to Texas for these five major crops and measures the avoided revenue loss associated with drone‑enabled access, timeliness, and treatment capability. The results do not account for economic value on the industry because costs, profits, capital investment, and operational efficiency are not included in this preliminary result; however, it does place an estimate of the minimum economic importance of drones, because it captures the yield losses that would occur if drones were unavailable. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404317 |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Eshana Mukherjee; Samriddhi Dube |
| Abstract: | This brief makes recommendations on strengthening supply chain traceability, product standards and testing, and data-driven policymaking to help the market formalise, integrate supply chains, ensure that food is safe for consumption and help MSMEs grow in the formal sector. If these measures are implemented, the growth rate will be doubled, and the Indian spices market will reach over USD 13 billion by 2034. |
| Keywords: | Spices, Supply Chain, India, Fragmentation, Food Safety and Standards, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:73 |
| By: | Niazi, Kamran; Poudel, Dixit; Burrone, Sara; Bologna, Giulio; Lombardi, Niccolo; Scognamillo, Antonio |
| Abstract: | Anticipatory cash transfers, i.e. disbursed before climate shocks materialise rather than after, are expanding rapidly across fragile settings, yet rigorous evidence on their effectiveness in slow-onset drought contexts remains scarce. This study provides one of the first quasi-experimental evaluations of Early Warning-based Anticipatory Cash Transfers (EWACT) targeting a slow-onset drought in a fragile, conflict-affected setting, using three rounds of panel data from 1, 635 households in Baidoa district, Somalia (2024–2025) and a difference-in-differences design with inverse probability weighting. Results show that treated households significantly increased savings and crop reserves and improved debt repayment capacity, the intermediary outcomes of the asset-protection, savings, and debt-management pathways, which translated into a 33 percentage-point improvement in food consumption scores and a 7 percentage-point reduction in crop losses at midline. No significant effects on livestock mortality were detected. Effects on mobility and displacement, reveal a reduction in both, with mobility effect that deepens from 5 to 12 percentage points between midline and endline, even as food security gains dissipate. An instrumental variable extension shows that food security benefits are front-loaded and fade with elapsed time since transfer, while financial stock outcomes persist across seasons. This temporal asymmetry, transient food security improvements alongside a strengthening and durable reduction in mobility, is the paper's central empirical contribution, with implications for the design, sequencing, and cost-effectiveness of anticipatory action in fragile, drought-prone contexts. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404575 |
| By: | Sloterdijk, Hans; Grünhagen, Caroline; Voss, Rudi; Grasse, Patricia; Keller, David P.; Kleemann, Linda; Kluger, Lotta Clara; Lancker, Kira; Rickels, Wilfried; Riebesell, Ulf; Salvatteci, Renato; Oschlies, Andreas; Schmidt, Jörn O.; Oppelt, Natascha; Rehdanz, Katrin; Riekhof, Marie‐Catherine |
| Abstract: | Achieving global climate goals while ensuring food security in a changing climate presents significant challenges, particularly when relying solely on land-based solutions. Covering over 70% of the Earth's surface, the ocean remains an underutilized resource for climate mitigation. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is one such strategy, designed to strengthen the ocean's natural carbon sink, reduce atmospheric CO2, and mitigate ocean acidification. However, its implications for fisheries, critical for food security and livelihoods, remain uncertain. This study examines the interplay between global fisheries, OAE, and different future socioeconomic and climatic conditions, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways framework. We explore how global fisheries and OAE could evolve under three combined scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (sustainability-focused), SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil fuel dependency). By integrating ecological, economic, societal, and technological perspectives, we develop scenario narratives and quantify key bio-economic parameters, including technological progress, fishing costs, fisheries management, marine aquaculture, and ecosystem carrying capacity. High-emission (SSP5-8.5) and fragmented development (SSP3-7.0) scenarios present significant barriers to the coexistence of OAE and fisheries, whereas sustainability-focused pathways (SSP1-2.6) offer the most favorable conditions for their alignment. Successfully integrating OAE with fisheries management will likely depend on technological advancements, international cooperation, and socio-economic developments. These scenarios are aligned with those used in model-based scenario studies conducted under the frameworks of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), providing a shared foundation for future work. Plain Language Summary The world faces two major challenges: reducing climate change and ensuring food security. While many climate solutions focus on land, the ocean, covering over 70% of the Earth's surface, offers untapped potential. One proposed strategy is ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), which could help the ocean absorb more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and reduce ocean acidification. However, little is known about how OAE might affect global fisheries, which are essential for food and livelihoods. Our study explores how fisheries and OAE could co-evolve under different future scenarios, considering climate change and socio-economic developments. We examine three possible futures: one focused on sustainability (SSP1-2.6), another marked by regional conflict (SSP3-7.0), and one with continued high fossil fuel use (SSP5-8.5). Using these scenarios, we analyze factors such as fishing costs, technology, aquaculture, and ecosystem health. We find that sustainability-focused pathways (SSP1-2.6) create the best conditions for OAE and fisheries, while high-emission and fragmented development scenarios present major challenges. The successful implementation of OAE alongside fisheries management will likely depend on technological progress, international cooperation, and economic policies. We expect that these scenarios will be a common starting point for future model-based scenario studies related to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:341700 |
| By: | Prakash, Divya; Porse, Erik; Nemati, Mehdi; Shellabarger, Rachel; Dinar, Ariel; Ma, Meilin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how nitrogen management practices (NMPs) affect nitrogen (N) use efficiency, which is measured as nitrogen applied (A) minus nitrogen removed (R) through crop uptake (A−R). The analysis uses unique field-level panel survey data from 11 water quality coalitions across California’s Central Valley, spanning the period 2019–2023. Because fertilizer application decisions are jointly determined with cropping management practices and field conditions, we employ an Instrumental Variables (IV) framework that uses soil, tissue, and irrigation-water testing practices as instruments for nitrogen application intensity. The results indicate that several management practices are associated with significant improvements in nitrogen efficiency outcomes. The largest gains are observed for split nitrogen applications, followed by fertigation and foliar nitrogen application. To further examine heterogeneity across growers, we estimate Quantile IV models across the distribution of A−R outcomes. The estimates reveal substantial variation in the effectiveness of management practices across such distribution. In particular, the practice of split nitrogen applications generates the largest efficiency gains among relatively less efficient fields, while fertigation and foliar applications exhibit heterogeneous effects across quantiles. The findings suggest that improvements in nitrogen efficiency are driven by a relatively narrow set of efficiency-oriented practices, highlighting the importance of distinguishing among management practices in both regulatory design and extension outreach efforts. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404362 |
| By: | Mwebaze, Paul; Khanna, Madhu; Majeed, Fahd; Mishra, Bijesh; Miao, Ruiqing |
| Abstract: | Utility-scale solar expansion across U.S. croplands is intensifying food–energy land-use conflicts, particularly in the Midwest. Agrivoltaics (AV), the co-location of photovoltaic systems with agricultural production, offers a potential land-use solution, but its scalability depends on farmer adoption. This study examines how financial incentives, operational requirements, and behavioral factors shape AV adoption decisions using a discrete choice experiment with 177 farmers across 12 Midwestern states (708 choice observations). The experiment evaluates attributes that directly affect farm profitability, risk exposure, and management complexity, including lease payments, income variability, land share under panels, and requirements for new equipment or crop switching. We model adoption as a joint discrete–continuous decision, capturing both the likelihood of adoption and the extent of land allocation to AV. Results show that higher lease payments significantly increase both the probability of adoption and land allocation, highlighting the importance of stable and attractive compensation. In contrast, operational complexity, particularly requirements for new equipment, reduces adoption and generates substantial implicit costs in willingness-to-accept (WTA) estimates. Behavioral characteristics also matter: farmers with higher discount rates are less likely to adopt, whereas risk-tolerant farmers are more willing to participate. Latent class analysis further reveals substantial heterogeneity, distinguishing a majority of cautious “moderate adopters” from a smaller group of “high-intensity adopters” that is more responsive to stable income streams and higher lease compensation. Overall, the findings suggest that financially attractive and operationally simple AV contracts will be critical for scaling adoption while preserving agricultural production. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404508 |
| By: | Balboni, Clare; Shapiro, Joseph S. |
| Abstract: | How do environmental goods and policies shape spatial patterns of economic activity? How will climate change modify these impacts over the coming decades? How do agglomeration, commuting, and other spatial forces and policies affect environmental quality? We distill theoretical and empirical research linking urban, regional, and spatial economics to the environment. We present stylized facts on spatial environmental economics, describe insights from canonical environmental models and spatial models, and discuss the building blocks for papers and the research frontier in enviro-spatial economics. Most enviro-spatial research remains bifurcated into either primarily environmental or spatial papers. Research is only beginning to realize potential insights from more closely combining spatial and environmental approaches. |
| JEL: | F18 F64 H23 J61 O18 Q50 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19934 |
| By: | Pan, Chenyu; Downey, W.; Keshavarz, Masie |
| Abstract: | Sustainability adoption in agriculture is often modeled as a binary decision; however, emerging evidence suggests that adoption may instead occur through multiple stages. This thesis examines heterogeneity in sustainability adoption pathways among commercial farmers by distinguishing between interest in adoption and commitment to sustained implementation. Using survey data from commercial producers, ordered and binary regression models are employed to identify economic, strategic, operational, and behavioral determinants of both stages. Results indicate that perceived economic benefits and strategic positioning are strong predictors at both stages of the adoption pathway. Policy incentives, including both government financial support and perceived consumer willingness to pay, predict initial interest but lose explanatory power at the commitment stage. In contrast, perceived financial constraints do not deter initial interest but significantly reduce the probability of transitioning from interest to commitment. Demographic characteristics such as age, education, and gender exhibit limited explanatory power, while farm size shows selective effects at the interest stage. The findings reveal an “adoption puzzle”: while many producers recognize the economic rationale for sustainability, fewer fully integrate these practices into long-term farm management systems. This divergence suggests that sustainability adoption is not a single decision but a multi-stage process shaped by differing economic incentives and structural constraints. The study contributes to the literature by reframing sustainability adoption as a dynamic pathway rather than a binary outcome and by identifying distinct determinants at different stages of engagement. Policy and industry strategies that focus solely on stimulating initial interest may overestimate durable transformation unless they also address implementation risk, uncertainty, and long-term integration incentives. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404379 |
| By: | Abdushukurova, Sevinch; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Djuraeva, Mukhayyo |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is central to the Kyrgyz economy, yet technology adoption lags, and existing models overlook trust and risk preferences, particularly their interaction. Moreover, no prior Kyrgyz study has addressed this gap. Hence, this research examines how risk attitudes and trust shape technology adoption among Kyrgyz farming households, using two waves (2016, 2019) of the Life in Kyrgyzstan panel survey restricted to farming households, yielding balanced panel data of 1, 305 households with 3, 298 observations. Using household fixed-effects regression, preliminary results show that risk preference alone is not a significant variable, while its interaction with trust reveals that risk-tolerant farmers adopt more when they have institutional trust or are cautious. It has also been observed that different types of trust have distinct direct effects on farmers' technology adoption. For instance, wariness predicts higher adoption, while institutional trust suggests lower adoption. These findings are crucial for Kyrgyzstan’s current push toward modern, particularly green and resource-efficient, approaches aimed at limiting environmental damage while improving resource management in farmers’ practices. Investments pay off only if farmers actually adopt technologies. Therefore, to maximize the returns from these investments, it is important to design trust- and risk-sensitive policy for Kyrgyzstan. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Risk preferences, Technology Adoption, Trust |
| JEL: | N50 O13 P32 Q1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342387 |
| By: | Dong, Caroline Yifan; Fei, Chengcheng; McCarl, Bruce; Zilberman, David |
| Abstract: | U.S. farmers have reallocated land across crops on an extraordinary scale over the past thirty years, and how much of this reflects climate adaptation matters for the welfare cost of warming. A farmer who switches from cotton to soybean may be chasing higher expected returns or fleeing rising downside risk. The two motives carry very different welfare and policy implications but reduced-form acreage-share methods cannot tell them apart. We build a structural land-use framework in which risk-averse farmers choose among crops by maximizing CARA expected utility over believed non-Gaussian per-acre profit distributions. The believed distributions are constructed from a thirty-year rolling weather belief and a Just–Pope yield model. The acreageshare system estimates a behaviorally disciplined distribution of farmer absolute risk aversion from observed land shares, rather than calibrating it from surveys. Federal crop insurance enters explicitly through its indemnity-and-premium structure. The framework lets us decompose climate-driven between-crop reallocation into a productivity channel and a risk channel, evaluate the welfare value of letting farmers re-optimize across crops, and assess subsidized federal crop insurance as a climate-adaptation policy. We apply the model to U.S. county-level land-allocation data 1987–2022 and project a CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 climate forward to mid-century. Two findings emerge. Between-crop reallocation absorbs most of the welfare cost of climate change the model assigns. About one-third of the projected reallocation reflects substitution away from worsening downside risk rather than toward higher expected returns — a channel reduced-form acreage methods cannot identify — and the same one-third risk share appears retrospectively in the actually-observed 1990–2020 reallocation. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404687 |
| By: | Tsiboe, Francis |
| Abstract: | This ARPC Report documents how U.S. producers configured Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) policies between 2006 and 2025, from the production context through supplemental coverage. Drawing on USDA Risk Management Agency program level and producer level FCIP records, it maps insured acres and liabilities across policy layers, commodity groups, and regions. Key trends stand out: most liability sits in individual revenue plans, while area and index based plans cover more acres at lower value per acre; coverage has shifted into higher bands; and Enterprise Units, with much lower producer paid premiums, are now the main choice for individual plans. Yield-history options dominate the options layer, and supplemental coverage, though still small, expanded sharply in 2025 after subsidy increases. Written agreements cover a small and declining share of acres, a sign that diverse production is steadily moving inside the program’s standard offer. The report closes by tracing how confirmed 2026 and 2027 policy changes, led by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act subsidy increases and the phase out of prevented planting buy up coverage, may reshape these choices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcre:404916 |
| By: | Poghosyan, Armine |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404882 |
| By: | Ray, Srabashi; Hill, Alexandra; Haqiqi, Iman; Taylor, J. Edward; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to evaluate the nationwide impacts of farm labor scarcity on U.S. crop producers. We focus on the period between 2002 and 2017 and disentangle the effects of labor scarcity from other market forces such as rising demand for agricultural commodities, factor-biased technological change, and changes in the supply of other inputs. To accomplish this, we leverage insights from a stylized theoretical framework, that shows labor market outcomes are determined by the interaction of market forces with structural parameters like factor-specific productivity changes, factor substitutability and endogenous relative price changes. We implement a two-step empirical strategy. First, we use a novel constrained optimization approach to simultaneously estimate changes in input-biased factor productivity, labor substitutability and price elasticity of labor supply for major crop-producing Farm Resource Regions. Second, with these estimates in hand, we use a spatially explicit partial equilibrium model of the crop sector, to replicate observed labor market outcomes, and estimate their responsiveness to a 1% shock in farm labor supply across widely differing production systems, between 2002 and 2017. Our estimates of regional changes in factor-biased productivity underscore the differences in capacity to adjust to labor shortages across production systems. We estimate that a 1% annual decline in farm labor supply can increase hiring costs by 7.4% for specialty crop growers and 5.9% for field crop producers over the course of a decade. These can be further aggravated if trade policies increase demand from domestic producers and immigration policy further accentuates the shortage of farm workers. Addressing labor scarcity will be key to ensuring the long-term sustainability and resilience of U.S. agriculture |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404600 |
| By: | Da, Yabin; Chen, Yuanyuan; Qiu, Huanguang |
| Abstract: | China generates more than 3.8 billion tons of livestock and poultry manure annually, making manure one of the most important sources of agricultural nonpoint-source pollution. Since 2017, China has implemented a county-wide manure resource utilization pilot program, supported by substantial central fiscal transfers, to promote crop-livestock recycling, manure treatment facilities, and water-quality improvement. Yet water quality has not improved uniformly in key river basins, and several indicators have increased rather than declined. This paper treats the county-wide manure utilization pilot in Sichuan Province as a quasi-natural experiment and combines county-level panel data on lake and reservoir water quality from 2014 to 2023 with staggered difference-in-differences estimators. To separate local treatment effects from basin-level spillovers, we construct directed hydrological spatial weights from high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) analysis of upstream-downstream runoff relationships. The results show strong indicator-specific heterogeneity. The policy significantly reduces total phosphorus (TP) and the permanganate index (PI), but increases total nitrogen (TN) and conductivity (Cond) in both lakes and reservoirs. Mechanism tests suggest that treatment facilities generate abatement benefits, while pilot counties also experience a substantial expansion in livestock scale, offsetting part of the environmental gains through additional nitrogen and dissolved-ion loads. Heterogeneity tests show larger nitrogen and ion-migration risks in areas with weaker cultivated-land carrying capacity, stronger precipitation-driven runoff, and better irrigation conditions. DEM-based spillover estimates further show that upstream pilots improve downstream composite water quality while increasing downstream TN, turbidity, and conductivity, consistent with selective abatement and pollution shifting. The paper contributes a hydrologically directed policy-evaluation framework for agricultural environmental regulation and provides evidence for basin-scale coordination in manure management. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404484 |
| By: | Litkowski, Carrie; Whitt, Christine; Borisova, Tatiana; Lim, Katherine; Todd, Jessica; Winter, Heather |
| Abstract: | This report documents the methods used to produce the USDA, Economic Resource Service’s (ERS) forecasts of farm-level average net cash farm income and farm household level median and mean income. These forecasts, released three times per year, provide insights into the financial well-being of farms and the households that operate them. Historical components of the financial indicators are drawn from the annual Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), a representative cross-section of farms in the 48 contiguous States. Forecasts are generated using models that begin with micro-level data from ARMS and incorporate USDA, ERS sector-level net cash farm income forecasts, along with broader, economy-wide forecasts. These models project changes in two income categories: income from farm operations and off-farm household income. Summary statistics are reported in two USDA, ERS data products: the Farm Income and Wealth Statistics and the Farm Household Income and Characteristics. These forecasts support informed decision-making by farm operators, policymakers, and other agricultural stakeholders by highlighting expected income trends across various farm types, sizes, and specializations, and projected changes in farm household financial well-being. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Financial Economics, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Marketing, Production Economics, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerstb:404915 |
| By: | Gharib, Mariam; Bergtold, Jason; Avocat, Helene; Caldas, Marcellus M.; Joslin, Audrey |
| Abstract: | CRP persistence, the length of time land under CRP land management practices remains under similar land management after contract expiration, ranges between 15 to 66% of previously enrolled land. Thus, longer-term environmental benefits from CRP on the land depend on how the land is managed after contract expiration. Research has examined what influences CRP persistence, but little literature extensively examines the effect of environmental factors on CRP persistence. We examine the influence of wildfires and drought, as well as surrounding land use, on CRP persistence. To study this, we constructed a 10-year unique geodatabase at the CRP parcel level and used a mixed effects Weibull accelerated failure time model (AFTM) to examine CRP persistence. We find that CRP persistence averages about 3 years, and most conversions of land practices away from those under prior CRP contracts happen within the first 2 years after contract expiration. CRP persistence is higher for expired CRP parcels located in regions with long-term to mid-range drought conditions, parcels that have been burnt or been in proximity to a megafire event. CRP persistence increases for every increase in percentage of grassland and open water for the surrounding land and decreases when bordered by crops. There is a need for policy intervention within the first two years after contract expiration to ensure the environmental benefits of conservation are retained in the longer term. This can be achieved through education to encourage landowners to retain CRP-based practices, enhancing wildfire mitigation land management efforts on both CRP and post-CRP lands, as well as increasing the likelihood of reenrollment for CRP lands classified as risky areas, such as those that are less connected or surrounded by crop production, located in wetlands, and during periods of short-term drought. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404737 |
| By: | Vourazeris, Kelsey; Richards, Timothy; Schmitz, Troy |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how trade policy and technological change have jointly shaped competition in the U.S. fresh tomato market. Since 1996, the U.S.–Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreements have imposed minimum reference prices on Mexican tomato exports, while Mexico has simultaneously expanded greenhouse production through sustained investment in protected agriculture. Using weekly product-level data from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Terminal Market and Movement reports from 1998 to 2025, we first document that suspension-agreement price floors bind frequently, with binding episodes occurring in approximately two out of every five weeks over the sample period. We show that these binding episodes disproportionately constrain lower-priced open-field products while greenhouse tomatoes, which command higher prices, are less frequently affected. This creates incentives for compositional shifts toward greenhouse production and higher-value export categories. To evaluate these mechanisms, we estimate a structural model of differentiated tomato demand that allows substitution across products defined by origin, production technology, variety, and organic status. The model incorporates heterogeneous preferences for greenhouse production and recovers implied marginal costs and markups under Bertrand competition. We then use the estimated framework to evaluate counterfactual policy scenarios involving tariffs on Mexican imports, reductions in marginal costs associated with Mexican greenhouse investment, and comparable subsidies for U.S. greenhouse producers. The preliminary results suggest that price-based trade protection primarily redistributes surplus, whereas technological change and greenhouse expansion have played a more important role in reshaping market structure, trade composition, and welfare outcomes in U.S. tomato markets. The paper contributes to the literature on non-tariff barriers by showing how differentiated price floors interact with production technology and quality differentiation in agricultural trade. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404366 |
| By: | Gustafson, Christopher |
| Abstract: | What determines which foods we consider? One factor, certainly, is what we like to eat, and if liking what we eat were the sole relevant outcome of food consumption, there would be little to say about incomplete consideration. However, diet quality has important, well-documented effects on health outcomes (as well as other important considerations, such as differential environmental impact). Close to 75 percent of American adults are overweight or obese, which increases the likelihood that the individual will experience one or more serious non-communicable diseases. A food’s healthiness is an important consideration for many people when making food choices, but, unlike tastiness, healthiness is more difficult to assess. Products carry nutrition facts panels displaying myriad pieces of information about nutrients, vitamins, and minerals. Whereas you get a sense of whether you like the taste of something within milliseconds, health outcomes occur over long timescales and innumerable meals, making it nearly impossible for an individual to identify the contribution of any particular food item to their current health status. In our attempts to make sense of the healthiness of foods, many of us form beliefs about the attributes of foods—which may include nutrients, such as how much protein is in a product; production practices, such as organics; or the absence of something, e.g. gluten free products—to help us categorize foods as healthy or not. Thus, even if we’re all trying to make healthy food choices, we may base those health judgments on different combinations of criteria, leading us to different beliefs about which products are healthy. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:404864 |
| By: | Shrestha, Aavash; Zhang, Qi; Etienne, Xiaoli; Tejeda, Hernan; Trujillo-Barrera, Andres |
| Abstract: | The food sector faces growing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and food companies increasingly communicate climate actions through product labels and sustainability claims. Yet low-carbon claims can be achieved through substantively different strategies. Some firms directly reduce emissions in production or along the supply chain, while others rely on carbon offsets that compensate for emissions through external projects. This study examines whether U.S. consumers distinguish among direct emissions reduction, carbon offsetting, and a combined reduction-and-offset approach in the context of dairy products. We conduct an online discrete choice experiment in which consumers choose between two 8-ounce blocks of sharp cheddar cheese and a neither option. Product attributes include brand type, price, climate mitigation claim, and certification source. Using a conditional logit model with respondent-clustered standard errors, we estimate willingness to pay for alternative climate claims and certification sources. Results show that consumers value all three climate mitigation claims relative to no claim, but they do not treat them as equivalent. Under both certification sources, the combined reduction-and-offset claim receives the highest willingness to pay, followed by direct emissions reduction and carbon offsetting alone. Similarly, across all the climate mitigation claims, government certification generates an additional premium relative to independent third-party certification. These findings suggest that the market value of climate-related food labels depends not only on the presence of a low-carbon claim, but also on the substantive mitigation strategy and the credibility of verification. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404432 |
| By: | Trovillion, Alexander P.; Piggott, Nicholas E.; Poole, Chad A. |
| Abstract: | Water management technologies−including center pivot irrigation, subsurface drip irrigation, tile drainage, and open ditch drainage−require substantial upfront capital investments, yet their economic viability in the humid southeastern United States remains poorly understood. Previous research has largely evaluated irrigation and drainage technologies independently; this study jointly assesses both strategies for corn production in North Carolina’s northern coastal region, the Blacklands. This study develops and applies a farm-scale profitability framework in which corn yield responses to eighteen water management strategies are simulated using DRAINMOD (Skaggs, 2013), calibrated against field trial data, and integrated with empirical cost estimates through a novel grid search-based numerical optimization approach spanning 20 years of historical data (2005-2024). We find that drainage is the primary driver of profitability in the poorly drained Blacklands. Open ditch drainage with no land leveling or irrigation yields the shortest payback period (0.91 years), the highest net present value ($235, 096.81), and the highest internal rate of return (32.52%), while subsurface drip irrigation combined with tile drainage and no land leveling generates the highest mean annual per-acre profit ($337.85). An important economic finding is that the profit-maximizing level of water management is generally less intensive than the agronomic optimum, highlighting the need to account for investment and operating costs in technology adoption decisions. These results are consistent with stakeholder sentiment and indicate that excess water is the primary limiting hydrological factor in the Blacklands. The framework in this study is designed to be transferable across North Carolina’s diverse agronomic regions as additional calibration data become available, and it has the potential to generate spatially differentiated profitability estimates that can help producers, policymakers, and stakeholders make more informed investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404710 |
| By: | David Amaglobeli; Todd Benson; Ms. Tewodaj Mogues; Kaleb Tamiru Gulilat |
| Abstract: | This Note provides an overview of food assistance expenditure policies, quantifying and categorizing them, discussing their advantages and drawbacks, and outlining different options for targeting food-spending modalities. Generalized food price subsidies can be effective for quickly addressing price shocks, but they also tend to distort markets, are costly, and often disproportionately benefit better-off households. While food voucher programs can be more efficient in well-functioning markets, they are costly to administer and tend to be less useful in areas with poor market infrastructure. Direct in-kind food transfers can be critical during acute hunger crises but tend to be expensive and disrupt local markets if used over the long run. Design elements of food assistance programs matter. Understanding the drivers of food insecurity is key for better tailored interventions, whether addressing chronic food insecurity or responding to severe crises. Political challenges often prevail in reforming food assistance programs, particularly price subsidies, which are often seen by the public as a government obligation and can be contentious to scale down. |
| Keywords: | Keywords Provide a maximum of 7 words Food price subsidies; in-kind food distribution; food vouchers; food assistance spending; food security; food assistance spending |
| Date: | 2026–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2026/001 |
| By: | Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Mwebaze, Paul; Miljkovic, Nenad; Du, Xuzhi; Jia, Mengqi; Peng, Bin; Guan, Kaiyu |
| Abstract: | Solar energy adoption in the US offers a cost-effective means to meet future energy demands, but its land 17 requirements often overlap with high-yielding cropland, especially in the Eastern Interconnection. We 18 provide a comprehensive economic analysis of the potential of US agriculture to meet solar development 19 targets using utility-scale PV systems on US cropland, and the impact such adoption will have on crop 20 production. We show that to meet 2050 projections, only a fraction (1.67%) of farmland is needed under 21 utility solar. Next, we consider two alternative solar setups, namely a land sparing approach where solar is 22 adopted only on low quality land, and a land sharing approach using agrivoltaic solar systems. We show 23 that utility scale solar on low quality cropland will displace solar production from being concentrated in a 24 few counties to counties further away from transmission lines, and displace a similar number of acres as 25 utility-scale solar. We also show that agrivoltaic setups will require more cropland than utility-scale solar, 26 due to shading effects on yield and an increase in land set aside for panels and buffer regions. In each 27 alternative approach, more regions will not have enough cropland for solar development sites, resulting in 28 lower overall energy generation relative to utility-scale. Utility solar also has the lowest cost compared to 29 the other solar system setups, with land sparing approaches increasing transmission costs and being located 30 in relatively lower generation areas, and land sharing mostly due to high CAPEX costs and increased land 31 demand. Additionally, utility scale solar on low quality land will displace fewer crops (due to being located 32 on lower yielding cropland), and agrivoltaic setups will displace more crops than utility scale solar (due to 33 shading effects and an increase in land left idle). |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404749 |
| By: | Ferraro, Greg; Brown, Zachary; Moschini, Giancarlo; Perry, Ed |
| Abstract: | Glyphosate, the active ingredient of the herbicide RoundUp, has been subject to extensive scrutiny since the introduction of genetically engineered glyphosate tolerant crops in 1995. However, both a lack of observational studies and continued uncertainty around the toxicity of glyphosate emissions contribute to international political controversy and numerous civil actions at a time when US rural health measures are worsening and youth cancer rates are rising. Recent quasi-experimental studies using genetically engineered crop adoption as a source of exposure variation found glyphosate applications caused deleterious infant health effects in rural US areas, but we are unsure their exposure is truly exogenous. We reassess glyphosate’s effects on infant health using two sources of exposure variation in two-stage least squares instrumental variable approaches for twelve different infant health measures. We first similarly employ genetically engineered crop adoption but using seed sale marketing data, which is a more accurate measure of adoption relative to previous attempts. We then use changes in glyphosate product characteristics from the introduction of generic product types using product sales marking data, which is a novel separate source of variation. We do not find any consistent significant health changes from glyphosate exposure, where estimates are generally precise, pass typical assumption tests, and are robust to alternative specifications. By investigating the association between genetically engineered crop adoption and several rural co-occurring health and agricultural trends, we obtain evidence exposure variation from genetically engineered crop adoption is probably not independent from other agricultural production externalities. While this study provides evidence glyphosate did not contribute to rural health problems from 1995 to 2013, we believe pesticide data limitations, continued glyphosate controversy, and remaining potential for toxic agricultural emissions justifies evaluations of improved environmental monitoring. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404479 |
| By: | Joseph, Delide; Ifft, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | Weather-induced cash flow shocks pose significant risks to agricultural producers through their effects on crop yields, farm income, and financial decision-making. This study examines how Kansas commercial farms respond to weather-driven cash flow shocks—both contemporaneous and persistent—using farm-level panel data from the Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) and county-level temperature data from PRISM for the period 2013 to 2020. We find that exposure to extreme degree days above 32◦C (EDD) increases total loan volume and long-term borrowing, consistent with producers using debt to manage operational costs and minimize rollover risk following cash flow shocks. We extend this framework by examining consecutive shock exposure—classifying farm-years by their position within multi-year above-threshold heat streaks. Farms in the first consecutive shock year significantly increase current borrowing, while farms in the second consecutive shock year significantly increase machinery investment, revealing a two-stage adaptation sequence invisible to single-year analysis. Young producers are unable to access current credit in consecutive shock years at the same rate as the average farm, consistent with tighter credit constraints for operators with shorter financial histories. No-till adopters expand their total credit relationships in the onset year of a consecutive streak, suggesting that conservation tillage signals balance sheet quality to lenders under recurring heat stress. These findings are robust to Conley spatial standard errors and inverse hyperbolic sine transformation of outcomes. Our results indicate that producers use external finance to navigate weatherinduced cash flow shocks, with the persistence of these shocks generating distinct financial adaptation responses beyond what contemporaneous heat intensity alone predicts. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404334 |
| By: | Shrestha, Aavash; Zhang, Qi; Etienne, Xiaoli; Tejeda, Hernan; Trujillo-Barrera, Andres |
| Abstract: | Carbon taxes are economically efficient but often face public resistance, especially in food markets where taxes may raise concerns about affordability and fairness. This study examines whether revenue earmarking can improve U.S. consumer acceptance of a carbon tax on dairy products. We conduct a discrete choice experiment with 1, 169 U.S. primary grocery shoppers using yogurt as the product context. Alternatives vary by base price, carbon tax rate, and revenue use. Earmarking options include nutrition assistance, dairy emissions-reducing R&D, animal welfare and food safety improvements, and general government revenue. Results from a conditional logit model show that consumers respond negatively to higher base prices and to higher carbon tax rates when revenues are allocated to general government revenue. However, the positive and statistically significant interactions between the carbon tax rate and the earmarking indicators show that revenue use substantially changes consumers’ valuation of the tax. WTP estimates for a one-percentage-point increase in the carbon tax rate are negative under general government revenue (-$0.055), positive and statistically significant under nutrition assistance earmarking ($0.018), negative but smaller in magnitude under emissions-reducing R&D (-$0.011), and positive under animal welfare and food safety earmarking ($0.006). These findings suggest that revenue design is central to the acceptability of food carbon taxes. Earmarking revenues toward visible and socially meaningful purposes, especially nutrition assistance, may help reduce consumer resistance and broaden support for climate policy in food markets. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404503 |
| By: | Duchoslav, Jan; Minot, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Maize price instability remains a major policy challenge in Malawi, where most households depend on maize for both production and consumption. Many farmers sell maize after harvest, when prices are low, only to buy it back during the lean season, when prices are high. This paper examines whether Malawi's Strategic Grain Reserve, managed by the National Food Reserve Agency, can meaningfully stabilize maize prices. It reviews the sources of maize price volatility, assesses past government interventions—including minimum farmgate prices, trade restrictions, and public grain purchases and sales—and develops a conceptual framework for buffer stock operations. The analysis shows that while a strategic grain reserve can help mitigate the most extreme seasonal price movements, its effectiveness is severely constrained by limited storage capacity, financing and timing challenges, and, in particular, the market-determined import and export parity prices that govern cross-border trade. The paper argues that Malawi should retain its strategic grain reserve but calibrate its price-stabilization mandate to what is operationally feasible, while preserving the reserve's emergency and safety-net functions. |
| Keywords: | strategic grain reserves; grain; maize; food prices; price stabilization; fiscal policies; Malawi; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspp:183948 |
| By: | Tan, Cara; Hogg, Jennifer; Lacoe, Joanna; Rothstein, Jesse |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity is widespread among college students in the United States. CalFresh food benefits, known federally as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, can help students inCalifornia pay for food, but may not reach all eligible students. This data point provides estimates of CalFresh participation rates among California community college (CCC), California State University(CSU), and University of California (UC) students in California. It updates numbers from our last data point, which focused on CalFresh enrollment during the 2022–23 school year for CCC and UC students.This is the first data point in this series to include CSU students. |
| Keywords: | Education, food insecurity, SNAP, CalFresh, food benefits, CCC students, UC students |
| Date: | 2026–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt0046t08g |
| By: | Hueth, Brent; Dunn, Richard A.; Bailey, Sam; Babkin, Anton; Sandler, Austin |
| Abstract: | U.S. agricultural production relies on a wide array of inputs. Identifying the industries that contribute to the production of these inputs and quantifying the activity that supports the agricultural supply chain provides a more comprehensive accounting of the total contribution of the agricultural supply chain to the U.S. economy. Using input-output (I/O) analysis with 2017 data, we find that economic activity upstream of agricultural production is associated with $570 billion in output value ($515 billion domestically), $241 billion in value added, $119 billion in payroll, and more than 1.5 million jobs. We also identify the commodities that are the most important contributors to upstream agricultural activity, which can inform future research efforts to identify the potential sources of productivity growth in domestic agricultural production and document the spatial distribution of economic activity in the agricultural supply chain. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics, Labor and Human Capital, Marketing, Production Economics, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:404932 |
| By: | David L. Dickinson; Jacob Norwood |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity affects roughly 18 million people in the United States and 2.3 billion globally. Given its prevalence, this study aims to examine how food insecurity and resulting anxiety affect cognitive control and decision-making. Samples of n=102 food-insecure and n=102 food-secure individuals were recruited from the Prolific online subject pool to complete an incentivized Stroop Task and a Monetary Risk Taking task. Randomized treatment assignments administered either a High or Low Cognitive Load manipulation prior to decision making by prompting participants to consider a more or less expensive unexpected financial expense. While food insecurity did not impact cognitive control and risky choices as hypothesized, it may indirectly affect outcomes via anxiety. And, exploratory analysis of response times data suggest food insecurity may promote some increased risk taking due to less deliberative decision processing. The role of anxiety and its effect on choice process among the food-insecure likely merits further investigation. fatigue. Key Words: food insecurity, cognitive load, anxiety, risky-choice |
| JEL: | D00 D91 I30 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:26-08 |
| By: | David Dosso; Imen Ghattassi; Francisco Serranito |
| Abstract: | Climate vulnerability indices are widely used to guide environmental planning, climate adaptation strategies, and the allocation of resilience resources. However, many existing indicators are strongly correlated with countries’ levels of economic development, which can blur the distinction between climate risk and income conditions and lead to potentially biased prioritization of adaptation efforts. This study introduces the Climate Vulnerability Neutral (CVN) Index, a transparent and reproducible tool designed to better isolate climate-related vulnerability while maintaining broad sectoral coverage relevant for environmental management. The CVN index is constructed using a systematic selection procedure that retains vulnerability components with limited dependence on GDP per capita while preserving representation across key environmental domains, including food security, water resources, health, ecosystems, habitat, and infrastructure. Using panel data for 158 countries over the period 1995-2023, the results show that economic development explains a substantial share of the variation in widely used vulnerability indicators, whereas its influence on the CVN index is markedly lower. The proposed framework therefore provides a more balanced representation of countries’ exposure and sensitivity to climate hazards across income groups.From a management perspective, the CVN index offers a practical instrument for monitoring vulnerability trends, supporting comparative risk assessments, and improving the targeting of climate adaptation policies. By enhancing the transparency and usability of vulnerability measurement, the index can assist governments and international organizations in designing more effective and evidence-based environmental management strategies. |
| Keywords: | Climate vulnerability ; Environmental management ; Risk assessment ; Adaptation policy ; Composite indicators, GDP neutrality |
| JEL: | Q54 Q01 C43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-17 |
| By: | Tang, Yifang |
| Abstract: | Rural electrification is usually studied as a bridge to nonfarm employment and manufacturing growth. This paper studies a different and historically central margin: how the arrival of reliable rural power changes agricultural production, rural industrial activity, and the distribution of gains across places. I use China's Rural Primary Electrification Program as a staggered natural experiment. Counties entered certified cohorts in 1990, 1995, and 2000; the analysis combines a 1981-2015 county panel from the county-level agricultural database with climate, terrain, baseline economic conditions, and poverty-status controls. The empirical strategy is a twostage difference-in-differences estimator that residualizes outcomes with county fixed effects, year fixed effects, and province-year shocks before estimating treatment effects with countyclustered standard errors. Electrification increased agricultural machinery power by 11.9 percent, fertilizer use by 11.1 percent, effective irrigated area by 4.8 percent, total sown area by 6.4 percent, grain sown area by 7.8 percent, and agricultural labor by 9.5 percent. These input and scale margins translate into an 8.2 percent increase in grain output, a 7.9 percent increase in aggregate agricultural output value, and a 6.8 percent increase in agricultural income; rural industrial output value also rises by 10.8 percent. The estimates do not show robust effects on grain yield, plastic film use, cultivated land stock, aggregate farmer income, township-enterprise employment, or industrial income. Heterogeneity by baseline county income shows a progressive pattern: the lowest-income counties gain 22.4 percent in agricultural income, far more than richer counties. Event-study evidence supports the identifying assumption for major production and income outcomes and shows that the effects build gradually after certification. The results suggest that early electrification in poor agrarian settings is not merely an industrial policy. It is a general-purpose rural technology that relaxes production constraints, expands the cultivated margin, and can narrow spatial inequality when targeted toward lagging counties. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404763 |
| By: | Maria Elena Bontempi; Clementine Ols |
| Abstract: | Temperate conifer forests underpin European ecosystems and economies, making it essential to understand how they respond to climate change. Yet most empirical studies estimate average climate responses that mask variability across biological and ecological scales. Using a cross-classified panel model, we estimate heterogeneous climate sensitivities across trees, species, and ecological regions while accounting for temporal dynamics, competition, stand characteristics, and within- and between-species size variation. Spring temperature emerges as the dominant seasonal driver of radial growth, but its effect varies markedly across species and ecological regions. Native species exhibit lower growth potential but more context-dependent responses, whereas introduced species generally achieve higher growth while displaying greater climate sensitivity. Controlling for tree size attenuates the estimated temperature effect, showing that part of the apparent climate response reflects ontogenetic structure rather than intrinsic physiological sensitivity. Consequently, vulnerability cannot be inferred from species identity alone but depends on the interaction between species traits and ecological context. Models imposing homogeneous climate responses therefore risk misrepresenting both resilience and exposure to climate change. Our findings suggest that continued warming and changing precipitation regimes are likely to reshape temperate conifer forests through differential responses across species and ecological settings rather than through a uniform climatic effect. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q23 C23 Q24 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1229 |
| By: | Matt Clancy |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel estimates of annual private sector agricultural R&D at the level of US states for the period 1976-2014. For each of five different agricultural subsectors, I allocate estimates of national private sector R&D across the 50 states by using the geographic distribution of inventors listed on contemporaneous US patents in the same agricultural subsector. These five subsectors comprise a large majority of total private sector agricultural R&D. I then use this new dataset to document three stylized facts about private sector agricultural R&D: it is highly correlated with the size of the state's agricultural economy (including over time, as well as in cross section), it is highly persistent, and is has become increasingly less concentrated over 1976-2014, though this last trend shows signs of reversing. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.04956 |
| By: | Tirgari, Mohammad; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Harmel, R. Daren |
| Abstract: | The agricultural economics literature has overlooked the development of a normative approach to describe farmers’ non-monotonic behavior and preferences toward environmental strategies. This gap has become increasingly important as emerging global paradigms related to nitrogen planetary boundaries and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for nitrogen regulatory policies that promote pro-environmental behavior. Consequently, any disruption to farmers’ utility may significantly hinder the implementation of strategies based on Less Environmentally Impactful Diets (LEID-based strategies). This study introduces a novel utility function and extends the normative approach for describing farmers’ preferences regarding the trade-off between economic gains and environmental benefits. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using metadata from 421 studies conducted on corn farms in the United States and Canada. The utility function and the marginal rate of substitution between corn yield and the LEID index identify four assumptions underlying farmers’ behavioral rules: (i) the marginal utility of crop yield increases as yield rises but declines through its interaction with nitrogen leaching; (ii) the marginal utility of nitrogen leaching increases as leaching intensifies, although this effect is moderated by its interaction with crop yield; (iii) the marginal utilities of crop yield and nitrogen leaching exhibit a negative interaction, where the inverse relationship indicates substitutability between economic gains and environmental benefits; and (iv) nitrogen leaching exhibits diminishing marginal utility as it approaches the drainage-discharge threshold. The results show that the estimated marginal utility of leid, an index representing the production of less environmentally impactful diets, has an inverse relationship with the elasticity between yield and nitrogen leaching. This finding supports the positive effect of pro-environmental behavior on farmers’ utility among those who successfully reduce nitrogen leaching through LEID-based strategies. The structural properties of the proposed utility function therefore provide theoretical support for analyzing farmers’ behavioral responses to LEID-based strategies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404781 |
| By: | Wang, Xinran; Wang, Xingguo; Fei, Chengcheng |
| Abstract: | Reduced-form climate–yield panels allow nonlinear temperature effects but often treat precipitation as a seasonal total over a fixed calendar window. This paper estimates precipitation responses for rainfed U.S. corn and soybean from 1981 to 2022 using county-year yields, PRISM daily weather, and NASS Crop Progress phenology. We construct dynamic growingseason windows from planting to physiological maturity, estimate generalized additive models, and allow precipitation to affect yield differently across cold, moderate, and heat regimes through tensor-product smooths with the matching degree-day exposure. The dynamic window lowers measured growing-season precipitation by 25.1% for corn and 34.8% for soybean and removes 85.0%and82.3%offixed-window cold exposure. The regime specification does not increase out-of-sample mean squared error relative to an additive dynamic-window GAM. Estimated rainfall responses vary by thermal context: moderate-regime rainfall has a humpshaped marginal effect with zero-crossings near 380 mm for corn and 425 mm for soybean, while heat-regime rainfall has positive dry-end effects, especially for corn. An adaptation-gain counterfactual, which holds the fitted response surface fixed and re-evaluates climate inputs under a 1981–1985 baseline phenology window, turns positive after the 1980s for both crops. Decadal gains peak at 0.44 billion 2022 dollars for corn in 2001–2010 and rise to 0.55 billion for soybean in 2011–2022. These estimates bundle deliberate calendar choices with passive phenological movement, so they are not causal estimates of farmer behavior. The results show that precipitation effects depend on when rainfall occurs within the temperature distribution, andthat historical phenology shifts have already changed the value of growing-season weather. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404689 |
| By: | Pathak Chalise, Prayash; Kostandini, Gentian; Mykerezi, Elton |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of state-level mandatory E-Verify laws on firm performance in labor-dependent sectors, focusing primarily on U.S. agricultural firms. Using the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) dataset, which provides firm-level sales, employment, and geographic information, we analyze more than 14 million farm-year observations from 1990 to 2019 and exploit the staggered adoption of private-sector E-Verify mandates across seven states. Employing multiple causal identification strategies we find consistent evidence that E-Verify significantly reduces both farm sales and employment. On average, sales decline by about 5 percent and employment by about 3 percent after policy implementation, with effects emerging soon after adoption and persisting over time. The impacts are not uniform across firms: small farms and labor-intensive subsectors such as fruits, vegetables, nurseries, and farm labor contractors experience the largest losses, while larger farms appear more resilient, likely due to greater access to mechanization or alternative labor sources. Geographic results further show that farms located far from borders with non-mandating states face larger declines, suggesting that cross-border labor market access partly offsets enforcement effects. Extending the analysis beyond agriculture, we also document negative impacts in hospitality, food service, and construction industries, while placebo sectors such as finance, insurance, and utilities show little measurable effect. Overall, the findings indicate that E-Verify functions as a negative labor supply shock in sectors highly dependent on immigrant labor, reducing firm scale and productive capacity while disproportionately burdening smaller and labor-intensive businesses. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404372 |
| By: | Zeballos, Eliana; Restrepo, Brandon J. |
| Abstract: | In this report, we examine how U.S. adults allocate their time to eating, food acquisition, meal preparation, and physical activity using data from the 2022–2023 Eating and Health Module (EHM) of the American Time Use Survey. We analyze how these behaviors vary across sociodemographic and health-related groups. On an average day in 2022–2023, adults spent 67.5 minutes eating and drinking as a main activity and 16.4 minutes eating while engaged in another activity, with differences across age, employment status, and household structure. Prepared, ready-to-eat foods obtained from restaurants, fast-food places, grocery store delis, and other establishments (including takeout and delivery) were purchased an averaged 2.2 times per week, and 36.8 percent of adults consumed food prepared away from home on a typical day. Grocery shopping and meal preparation were common activities, although responsibility for these tasks varied by sex, income, and household composition. Complementing these food-related behaviors, 64 percent of adults reported participating in physical activity during the past week, with higher participation among those reporting better health status and diet quality. These descriptive statistics provide national benchmarks on food- and health-related behaviors and highlight differences across population groups. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:404901 |
| By: | Geleta, Solomon |
| Abstract: | Organic transition support programs are an incentive-design problem under asymmetric information. Policymakers cannot observe farm-specific transition costs, yield outcomes, or compliance capabilities. As a result, uniform and static payment structures can generate information rents for low-cost adopters, fail to attract high-cost but potentially high-value participants, and create moral hazard during the multi-year transition period when compliance is costly to monitor. We develop an integrated bio-economic and mechanism-design framework to evaluate how federal organic transition programs affect adoption incentives, transition costs, compliance behavior, and program efficiency. Farm-level linear-programming models are calibrated to USDA Census of Agriculture microdata for conventional operations and certified organic farms to generate farm-specific conversion-cost distributions, which serve as the type space for mechanism evaluation. Programs are assessed on six criteria: individual-rationality satisfaction, incentive-compatibility compliance, participation rates, targeting efficiency, information rents, and deadweight loss relative to the full-information first-best benchmark. Static support scenarios, including certification cost share through the Organic Certification Cost Share Program (OCCSP) and practice-based conservation payments through the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), do not achieve break-even within the transition period for the majority of farms in our simulations. Cumulative four-year returns remain negative under all static scenarios evaluated. A theoretical dynamic mechanism, budget-matched to the Environmental Quality Incentives Program–Organic Transition Initiative (EQIP-OTI) over the three-year transition window and structured as a front-loaded, declining payment conditioned on verifiable transition milestones, achieves positive Year 1 returns, the highest targeting correlation, and the lowest rents-to-budget ratio among all evaluated configurations, outperforming all static programs on fiscal efficiency. The highest steady-state adoption rate (86.3 percent individual-rationality satisfaction) is achieved by combining market premiums with practice-based cost share, but this scenario also produces the largest deadweight loss (35.1 percent of first-best welfare) due to additive information rents. These results establish a quantitative efficiency-adoption tradeoff at the core of organic transition program design. Effective policy should use dynamic, declining payment structures as the core mechanism, offer sizeand production-type-differentiated contract menus to exploit observable heterogeneity, condition continuation on verifiable milestones rather than self-reported costs, and integrate financial transfers with technical assistance and market-development support. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404389 |
| By: | Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2)); Gema Aparicio (Independent Researcher); María-Isabel Ayuda (Universidad de Zaragoza, and Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Economía, Sociedad Digital y Sostenibilidad (IEDIS)); Ignacio Belloc (Universidad de Zaragoza, and Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Economía, Sociedad Digital y Sostenibilidad (IEDIS)); Pablo Delgado (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2)); Raúl Serrano (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2)) |
| Abstract: | This article reconstructs the evolution of Latin American and Caribbean agri-food exports between 1850 and 2024 by developing homogeneous series based on international sources and historical databases. To do so, it combines data from Federico and Tena (2019), the International Institute of Agriculture, the FAO, FAOSTAT, and UN Comtrade, linking different series expressed in constant dollars. The study shows that during the first wave of globalization, the region became deeply integrated into international markets through the export of primary products, although outcomes varied depending on products and regions. The two world wars and the Great Depression generated major external shocks, especially for South America. From the mid-twentieth century onward, import-substitution industrialization policies, international protectionism, and the structure of the export basket reduced Latin America's relative weight in global agri-food trade. Since the 1990s, and especially after 2001, trade liberalization, regional agreements, the rise of Asian demand, particularly from China, technological change, and improved terms of trade drove a new export boom, associated with a degree of reprimarization and unevenly distributed benefits. |
| Keywords: | Latin American Economic History, Agri-food exports, Reprimarization, Latin American Economies |
| JEL: | F14 N56 N76 Q17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0308 |
| By: | Chakravorty, Rwit; Tsiboe, Francis; Zhao, Hongxi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether and to what extent producers substitute higher coverage levels for the loss of targeted prevented planting (PP) buy-up protection. We focus on the effect of the 2018 elimination of the 10% PP buy-up option, which preceded the Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule's that completed the elimination of the remaining PP buy-up option beginning with the 2027 commodity year. Using policy-level administrative data from the USDA Risk Management Agency covering 2013–2024, we implement a difference-in-differences framework with farm and commodity-by-year fixed effects, supplemented by entropy balancing to address pre-existing differences between farms that elected the 10% buy-up (treated) and those that used base coverage only (control). Our preferred specification, focusing on corn and soybeans where pre-treatment parallel trends hold most cleanly, estimates that treated farms increased coverage levels by approximately 0.04 percentage points on average relative to control farms. This aggregate estimate masks substantial heterogeneity: farms with more than 10 percentage points of room below the 85% coverage ceiling increased coverage by 0.45 percentage points, while farms already at or near the ceiling show no positive response. The dynamic response is gradual and concentrated in 2020, a year of historically severe prevented planting losses following the record 2019 PP season, consistent with deliberate risk management substitution. Heterogeneity-robust estimators (Sun-Abraham, Callaway-Sant’Anna) confirm a positive and significant treatment effect, with the Sun-Abraham interaction-weighted estimate of 0.43 percentage points reflecting the concentrated post-treatment response more accurately than the TWFE average. These findings suggest that coverage-level substitution occurs where mechanically possible but is insufficient to fully compensate for the loss of targeted PP protection for a large share of the program population. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404357 |
| By: | Althouse, Jeffrey; Bedossa, Bastien; Espagne, Etienne; Faucher, Léna; Gonon, Morgane; Kedward, Katie; Modica Scala, Angela; Poupard, Adam; Svartzman, Romain |
| Abstract: | While the macroeconomic and financial implications of climate change have long been debated by researchers as well as economic and financial decision-makers, the potential macro-critical impacts posed by biodiversity loss and the structural shift towards an economy that protects - rather than degrades - nature remain underexplored. In fact, recent studies struggle to explain why even major ecosystem disruptions show only minor macroeconomic and financial impacts in their models. Against this backdrop, this paper reviews existing biodiversity-economy scenarios and modeling approaches to assess their ability to capture the macro-criticality of nature-related transition impacts. We highlight two key gaps: (i) The prevailing tendency to adopt a narrow approach to nature-related impacts, predominantly focusing on the agricultural sector, fails to account for the multiple sectors that could also be affected—either directly or through value chain linkages. Moreover, this approach overlooks the broader socioeconomic transformations that may be necessary to facilitate a meaningful transition toward sustainability; and (ii) The limits of equilibrium-based models, which systematically underestimate the economic impact of nature-related impacts due to their focus on optimization under constraints, their assumptions about substitutability, and their limited representation of both the financial sector and propagations of shocks throughout value chains. We then make three contributions to start addressing these shortcomings: First, we provide a thematic summary of a broad range of nature-related transition scenarios, to support future economic assessments of nature loss or transition pathways through a more comprehensive approach. Second, we explore the potential of diverse non-equilibrium ecological macroeconomic models to reflect the interdependencies between biodiversity, economic activity, and financial stability. Rather than forcing automatic convergence towards an optimal state, these models track the dynamic evolution of simulated trajectories, thereby better capturing how nature loss can become macro-critical. Third, we apply these insights through four case studies to illustrate how nature-related impacts can propagate through production and financial networks, with potentially large positive or negative impacts at the macro level. We do so by using both: relatively simple tools (based on input-output tables) to assess short-term economic and financial exposures to specific scenarios; and two of the ecological macroeconomic models mentioned above for medium-term assessments. Our findings underscore the need to consider both a broad range of scenarios and alternative modeling approaches to identify the potential macro-criticality of nature. Doing so will be essential to begin to meaningfully integrate nature into economic and financial policymaking, and support efforts to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity; Macro-financial stability; Input-output linkages; Disequilibrium models |
| JEL: | C67 D50 D57 E17 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19987 |
| By: | Deka, Anubrata; Banerjee, Simanti; Floyd, Theresa |
| Abstract: | In this bulletin, we have provided a descriptive analysis of the perceptions of conservation professionals in Nebraska and Montana, two states where the rangeland ecosystem is facing a large-scale transition from native grasses to invasive trees and grasses. This analysis provides an initial understanding of the different factors that can influence adoption of policy initiatives by conservation professionals. When considered alongside insights into the management behaviors of ranchers—whose productivity and profitability are adversely affected by these transitions—this information helps form a more comprehensive picture of the ecological and economic impacts of UVTs, as well as strategies for their mitigation. In the next step, our goal is to analyze data from questions about respondents’ social networks to evaluate how the structure and composition of their networks influence policy priorities and barriers, and how those are related to their perceptions of trust. This analysis will be conducted for both states while controlling for respondent-level characteristics and other variables in the data set, thereby deepening our understanding of how personal, environmental, and social factors influence professionals’ approaches to UVT management on the landscape. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:404860 |
| By: | Peng, Cong; Zhang, Enqi |
| Abstract: | Many areas in sub-Saharan Africa remain poorly connected to reliable road networks, while domestic food distribution relies heavily on road transport. Meanwhile, because most countries import refined fuel, shocks in global oil markets may translate into higher inland transport frictions and food prices, especially in remote markets. We examine how road-network remoteness shapes the transmission of international oil prices into local maize prices across 19 countries in subSaharan Africa. The analysis uses monthly market-level data from January 2021 to December 2023, a period that includes the sharp increase in international oil prices following the 2022 RussiaUkraine war. We measure market-level remoteness exposure by interacting road-network distance to ports with international oil prices. To address endogeneity concerns, we use an IV strategy that instruments remoteness exposure with proximity to straight lines connecting major mines and ports active before 2000, interacted with oil supply news shocks. The IV estimates imply that when international oil prices increased from $74 to $123 per barrel (as it did between December 2021 and June 2022), local maize prices would be 30.343% higher in a market located 500 km farther from ports than in an otherwise comparable market closer to ports. The estimated effect is stronger in areas with poorer agricultural production conditions, where weaker local production buffers make maize prices more vulnerable to oil price shocks in remote markets. As an extension, contemporaneous remoteness exposure is associated with higher local conflict events and fatalities, while lagged exposure has no detectable effect. These results highlight the need to account for road-network remoteness and local production buffers when assessing how global energy shocks translate into local food price vulnerability |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404636 |
| By: | Kilimann, Jana; Hartmann, Monika; Verbeke, Wim; Klink-Lehmann, Jeanette |
| Abstract: | Shelf life-extending edible coatings for fruits offer a promising approach to mitigate wastage of fresh produce in households, yet their effectiveness ultimately depends on consumer acceptance. Grounded in the expectancy-value framework, the present study examines how trust in actors of the food sector, beliefs regarding benefits and risks, and attitudes influence purchase intentions for four coated example fruits: avocados, bananas, pears and tomatoes. We distinguished between cognitive and affective attitudes to capture both rational and emotional evaluations. An online survey was conducted with a total of 3, 568 German consumers between December 2025 and January 2026, with independent subsamples for each example fruit. Partial least squares structural equation modeling was applied to estimate four fruit-specific models. While benefit beliefs, risk beliefs, attitudes and purchase intentions varied across fruit examples, the structural relationships between constructs remained consistent, suggesting a generalizability of model relationships to other product contexts. Across all fruit examples, higher levels of trust in actors of the food sector were associated with more favorable benefit beliefs, reduced risk beliefs, and more positive cognitive and affective attitudes, which ultimately increased purchase intentions. We further found a strong relationship between benefit beliefs and cognitive attitudes, as well as between risk beliefs and affective attitudes, highlighting the necessity of addressing both attitude dimensions in the context of shelf life-extending innovations. The results of our study can be leveraged to design effective communication strategies to support the uptake of food waste-reducing technologies, and to inform the design of future studies which should incorporate real purchasing scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404526 |
| By: | Anderson, Kym; Wittwer, Glyn |
| Abstract: | The announcements by President Trump in April 2025, of unilateral hikes of 10-50 percentage points on US import tariffs on all countries’ goods, are under threat of coming into force on 8 July 2025. This article estimates their likely effects on trade in alcoholic beverages, using a global model of national beverage markets. Various scenarios are compared. They suggest that if the tariff hike was restricted to just 20% on goods from the European Union, the value of global trade in each of the three beverages would shrink by one-tenth. But the US tariff hikes are to apply to all countries’ goods, which is estimated to shrink global exports by 13% for wine, 22% for spirits and 33% for beer. In that broader scenario, most countries’ wine exports would shrink, but exports of beer and spirits would expand for some countries thanks to the trade divergence generated by the varying tariff hikes. If the increasing uncertainty associated with these developments led to a cumulated 2% drop in consumer spending, virtually all wine-exporting countries would sell less wine to both the US and the rest of the world. That is, wine trade destruction would outweigh trade diversion. |
| Keywords: | Trump tariff wars; Unilateral protection; Economic coercion; Trade retaliation |
| JEL: | F14 F17 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20285 |
| By: | Jiang, Jing; Fan, Yubing; Tang, Zeng |
| Abstract: | Livestock production has thus become a key pillar of rural revitalization and agricultural modernization. However, herders in China’s pastoral regions face significant risks from natural disasters, wildlife conflicts, and market fluctuations, which threaten income stability and sustainable development. Using survey data from 522 herder households in the Qilian Mountains, this study employs a Double-Hurdle model to examine how herders’ perceptions of natural disaster, wildlife conflict, and market risks affect their livestock insurance purchase decisions and payment amounts. The results reveal that a one-unit increase in overall risk perception raises the probability of purchasing insurance by 34.2% and increases insurance expenditure by 1, 512.1 CNY 2 . Specifically, only natural disaster perception demonstrates a statistically significant effect on insurance expenditure: a one-unit increase in this perception raises the probability of purchasing insurance by 3.0% and increases expenditure by 242.9 CNY. Perceived market risk increases purchase probability by 6.2%, and wildlife conflict risk increases it by 2.9%. Regional heterogeneity is evident: Qinghai herders respond more strongly to natural disaster risks in determining insurance payment amount, whereas Gansu herders are more responsive in their purchase decisions. Across livestock types, natural disaster perception remains the dominant driver of insurance participation and expenditure for both cattle and sheep herders. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring policy-based livestock insurance to regional and behavioral contexts. Strengthening herders’ market risk awareness, improving insurance accessibility and trust, and aligning insurance with ecological conservation policies can enhance participation and promote sustainable pastoral livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404779 |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Shubhro (University of California San Diego); Constantino, Sara (Stanford University); Mishra, Nirajana (Northeastern University); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Sabarwal, Shwetlena (The World Bank); Samaddar, Dighbijoy (Centre for Social and Behavior Change); Sherif, Raisa (Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finances) |
| Abstract: | We study intergenerational spillovers of environmental education using a randomized field experiment with 1, 446 child–parent pairs in Patna, India, assigned to child-only, parent-only, joint, or control arms. Treating either children or parents raises the likelihood that the untreated household member chooses a delayed recycled certificate over an immediate standard one by 25 percentage points—spillovers on this incentivized behavior run symmetrically in both directions. Spillovers on beliefs and attitudes are asymmetric, however: children shift parents' views on climate change, but little spillover runs from parents to children on other measures. Joint participation does not outperform targeting children alone once child-to-parent spillovers are accounted for, suggesting that targeting children is a more scalable, cost-effective way to promote sustainable household behavior. |
| Keywords: | environmental education, intra-household spillovers, intergenerational transmission, pro-environmental behavior, climate risk perceptions, factorial randomized design, India |
| JEL: | C93 D10 I20 O10 Q01 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18809 |
| By: | Mireille Razafindrakoto (LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, Paris); François Roubaud (LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, Paris); Florent Bédécarrats; Stéphanie Carrière; Emmanuel Pannier |
| Abstract: | Despite repeated calls for urgent action to address biodiversity loss, the resounding verdict is that most conservation policies, in particular their main policy measure, Protected Areas (PAs), have failed to halt environmental degradation and achieve meaningful social outcomes. Yet, the international community has committed to extending PA coverage to 30% of the planet by 2030, and with one-third of the Global South’s population already living in or near a PA, this proportion is set to become a majority. In view of this, the current practice, which is supposed to promote sustainable development but is problematic, consists of juxtaposing socioeconomic policies and environmental policies, often regarded as mutually antagonistic, without considering a comprehensive view of governance issues. This article reviews the impact of PAs on biodiversity and the populations’ living conditions and identifies the knowledge gaps, before looking into why biodiversity conservation has been prioritised, inconclusively, to the detriment of local sociopolitical and economic dynamics and why the narrow principle of ‘inclusive governance’, more words than deeds, falls far short of the mark. The traditional approach, which is blind to the fact that conservation and development objectives are embedded within power relations and a broader sociopolitical dynamic, dominated by extractivist and capitalist logic, should be challenged. We propose a novel analytical framework with an operational methodological approach grounded in critical political ecology in order to take a bottom-up approach rooted in a territory and improve our understanding of the complex interactions between local socioecological, socioeconomic and sociopolitical concerns. This approach will help put in place more effective and inclusive policies consistent with local livelihoods, ways of life, equity and justice. |
| Keywords: | Protected areas, Methodological Framework, Monitoring, Interdisciplinarity, Conservation-development system |
| JEL: | Q01 Q56 C81 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202605 |
| By: | Etienne Fouqueray (RURALITES [Poitiers] - Rural, urbain, acteurs, liens, territoires, environnement, sociétés [UR 13823] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, Région Nouvelle-Aquitaine); Jeanne Jimenez (Région Nouvelle-Aquitaine); Elodie Massiot (Région Nouvelle-Aquitaine); Coralie Mouffok-Chabe (AD'OCC - AD'OCC Agence Régionale d’Attractivité et de Développement d’Occitanie) |
| Keywords: | Régression logistique, Agroécologie, Crise, Décertification, Agriculture biologique |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05648943 |