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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Goli, Srinivas; Chakraborty, Kaustav; Dash, Antaryami; Bheemeshwar, Reddy A; Desilets, Marie Claude; Pandey, Richa Singh; Chamois, Sylvie; Singh, Usha |
| Abstract: | Climate change is emerging as a major threat to food and nutrition security, particularly for women and children. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, droughts, floods, and extreme weather events disrupt agricultural production, reduce food availability, increase food prices, and compromise diet quality. Climate-related diseases, water insecurity, and damage to health and sanitation services further worsen nutritional outcomes. Women and children are especially vulnerable because of biological, social, and economic disadvantages. The report emphasizes that climate change affects nutrition through food systems, health services, water and sanitation, and caregiving practices. It calls for climate-resilient food systems, strengthened nutrition services, social protection, and integrated policies linking climate adaptation with nutrition and child well-being. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Food and Nutrition Security, India, Child Nutrition |
| JEL: | Q1 Q18 F63 O13 I15 I18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:341678 |
| By: | Cavalcanti, Tiago; Kamkar, Kilian |
| Abstract: | Does improving agricultural productivity spare forests or accelerate their demise? We offer a new perspective on this debate by emphasizing the relative agricultural suitability of forest versus available vacant land for conversion. We develop a parsimonious framework in which land differs in agricultural efficiency across alternative expansion margins, showing that productivity gains translate into deforestation only when forests constitute the most cost-effective source of additional effective land. We test this prediction using a quasi-experimental design based on Tanzania’s National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme (NAIVS), which promoted modern seed and fertilizer adoption. Combining high-resolution satellite data on forest loss with spatial data on soil nitrogen to proxy relative suitability, we find that the program increased deforestation only in villages where vacant land was substantially less productive than forest land. Our results highlight the central role of land quality heterogeneity in shaping the environmental consequences of agricultural productivity growth, offer a complementary explanation for land-sparing versus expansionary outcomes, and point to a role for directed agricultural innovation in mitigating deforestation without constraining productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation; Tanzania |
| JEL: | Q15 Q23 Q24 O13 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21131 |
| By: | Pascale Bazoche (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sabine Duvaleix (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Marie Lassalas (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble-UGA - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | In France, organic farming adoption has slowed down despite ambitious targets set by the European Green Deal and the French National Strategic Plan. The role that cooperatives, as key stakeholders, can play in encouraging the adoption of environmental practices remains underexplored in the literature. This study examines how they may promote organic farming by adjusting the design of the contracts established with their members. Using a discrete choice experiment with winegrowers from a wine cooperative, we assess farmers' preferences for contract attributes such as environmental requirements, advisory services, partial vineyard contracting, price premiums, and yield-loss compensation mechanisms. We choose the wine sector as it faces a major challenge in reducing pesticide use. Results show that winegrowers are highly responsive to market-based economic incentives such as a 30% premium and compensation options for yield loss. They have heterogeneous preferences regarding the inclusion of environmental requirements within the farming contracts. A latent class analysis identified three groups of winegrowers: a majority are Adverse to change (61%), others are specifically Reluctant to organic (26%), and the smallest group are Ready to adopt organic (13%). While cooperatives' farming contracts can be a potential instrument to increase the uptake of organic farming, additional tools and policies are needed, at least in the shortterm, to scale up its uptake. |
| Keywords: | Choice experiment, Organic farming, Agricultural cooperative, Contracting |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05653061 |
| By: | Baul, Tushi; Karlan, Dean; Toyama, Kentaro; Vasilaky, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | Providing agricultural advice at scale poses operational challenges. Technology may help if repeating content reinforces learning for recipients and thus improves adoption, but risks reducing efficacy given limited customization and human interaction. We tested videos shared with female farmers in India as a supplement to standard human-provided extension services promoting a climate-smart practice, System Rice Intensification. The average treatment effects are large but imprecise because of non-normally distributed outcomes, specifically fat right tails. Weighted quantile regressions show that the imprecision in estimating an average treatment effect comes from farmers with output or yields in the upper quantiles. Both quantile regressions of the 25% and 50% quantiles and a Bayesian hierarchical model (robust to several priors) reveal positive treatment effects, and two subtreatments, one that reinforces information on labor costs from adoption and a second that presents role models to motivate adoption, lead to even higher estimated treatment effects on output. |
| Keywords: | Water; Field experiment; agriculture; Video; system rice intensification; video-based training; group extension |
| JEL: | D13 D83 O12 O13 O33 Q01 Q12 Q25 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21179 |
| By: | Helfand, Steven M.; Lima Cavalcanti, Francisco; Freitas, Carlos Otávio; Moreira, Ajax R B; Schling, Maja |
| Abstract: | Brazil ranks among the worlds top four agricultural producers and exporters, and continued growth is important for domestic and global food security. Sustained productivity growth is essential to support this expansion. This study estimates a stochastic frontier production function and calculates total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Brazilian agriculture. TFP is decomposed into components related to technology, weather (growing degree days), policy variables, and other factors. The analysis uses municipal Agricultural Census data from 1985 to 2017. TFP increased at 1.56% per year, accounting for 60% of output growth. The decomposition highlights the slowing effect of climatic factors, alongside the accelerating influence of investments in R&D and education. A key finding is the pronounced divergence in outcomes across many dimensions. Output and TFP growth were fastest in the Cerrado biome, characterized by large farms, and slowest in the Caatinga. Output became increasingly concentrated in a small number of municipalities, which tended to exhibit faster TFP growth and specialization in annual crops such as soybeans. Conversely, about one-third of municipalities experienced decline in output and TFP. The findings have significant policy implications for addressing climate change, guiding investments in R&D, and managing the growing divergence of outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural productivity;productivity growth;climate change;Agriculture;R&D |
| JEL: | Q10 Q16 Q54 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14646 |
| By: | Karlan, Dean; Lambon-Quayefio, Monica; Manjeer, Utsav; Udry, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Digital finance in agriculture is a nascent technology which could help improve rural financial inclusion. In an experimental evaluation of a digital lending product for farmers in Southern Ghana, credit increases farm investments but has few statistically significant average effects on downstream outcomes. However, logistical challenges generated imperfect compliance with the treatment assignment, with some loans delivered in a timely fashion for agricultural investments and others coming later. We cautiously exploit this unplanned non-experimental implementation heterogeneity and conclude that agriculturally-focused digital credit platforms have potential to tackle persistent rural financial market imperfections, but the timing seems critical and deserves further study. |
| Keywords: | Ghana; Trade |
| JEL: | O12 O16 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21177 |
| By: | Chakravorty, Rwit; Monaco, Henrique; Tsiboe, Francis |
| Abstract: | The 2026 crop year offered the first major stress test of the Margin Coverage Option (MCO), a new area-based insurance endorsement designed to protect county-level operating margins from lower crop revenue, higher input costs, or both. This brief examines how the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption affected expected MCO-95 outcomes for corn and soybeans. The disruption sharply increased fertilizer and energy costs during MCO’s April harvest input price discovery period, while crop prices provided little offset. Using simulated county-level yields, market conditions as of June 11, 2026, and RMA policy data, we estimate that MCO-95 trigger probabilities averaged about 68 percent for corn and 61 percent for soybeans. Expected net returns were also positive, averaging approximately $35.60 per acre for corn and $22.10 for soybeans. Results suggest that MCO provided meaningful cost-risk protection in 2026, although final payments remain conditional on harvest prices and county yields. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:404824 |
| By: | Macchiavello, Rocco; Miquel-Florensa, Josepa; de Roux, Nicolás; Verhoogen, Eric; Bernasconi, Mario; Farrell, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Do the returns to quality upgrading pass through supply chains to primary producers? We explore this question in the context of Colombia’s coffee sector, in which market outcomes depend on interactions between farmers, exporters (which operate mills), and international buyers, and contracts are for the most part not legally enforceable. We formalize the hypothesis that quality upgrading is subject to a key hold-up problem: producing high-quality beans requires long-term investments by farmers, but there is no guarantee that an exporter will pay a quality premium when the beans arrive at its mills. An international buyer with sufficient demand for high-quality coffee can solve this problem by imposing a vertical restraint on the exporter, requiring the exporter to pay a quality premium to farmers. Combining internal records from two exporters, comprehensive administrative data, and the staggered rollout of a buyer-driven quality-upgrading program, we find empirical support for the key theoretical predictions, both the lack of pass-through of quality premia under normal circumstances and the possibility of a buyer-driven solution through a vertical restraint. Calibration of the model suggests that one-third to two-thirds of the (substantial) gains from the program accrue to farmers, with the vertical restraint playing a critical role. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that quality upgrading can provide a path to higher incomes for farmers, but also that it is unlikely to be viable under standard market conditions in the sector. |
| JEL: | O12 F61 L23 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20981 |
| By: | Jack, Kelsey; Jayachandran, Seema; Kala, Namrata; Pande, Rohini |
| Abstract: | Particulate matter significantly reduces life expectancy in India. We use a randomized controlled trial in the Indian state of Punjab to evaluate the effectiveness of conditional cash transfers (also known as payments for ecosystem services, or PES) in reducing crop residue burning, which is a major contributor to the region's poor air quality. Credit constraints and distrust may make farmers less likely to comply with standard PES contracts, which only pay the participant after verification of compliance. We randomize paying a portion of the money upfront and unconditionally. Despite receiving a lower reward for compliance, farmers offered partial upfront payment are 8-11 percentage points more likely to comply than are farmers offered the standard contract. Burning measures derived from satellite imagery indicate that PES with upfront payments significantly reduced burning, while standard PES payments were inframarginal. We also show that PES with an upfront component is a cost-effective way to improve India's air quality. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21122 |
| By: | Schling, Maja; Ortiz, María Camila; Perez Massard, Renee Gabriela; Saenz Somarriba, Magaly; Chang Huaita, Rodrigo Ysaac |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes trends in agricultural total factor productivity in Bolivia between 2008 and 2015 and the factors driving these trends using national agricultural surveys. On balance, the findings suggest that agricultural total factor productivity increased by 1.8% annually between 2008-2015. Among productive inputs, land shows the largest marginal effect on the value of agricultural production. Regarding temperature shocks, the study finds that each additional harmful degree day during the growing season is associated, on average, with a 9.8% decrease in the value of agricultural output. With regards to policy drivers, no statistically significant effect of land titling within the last two years is detected on productivity. Public irrigation infrastructure has a positive effect on productivity, though its magnitude decreases with rising incidence of precipitation. These findings underscore the importance of continuing to invest public resources efficiently in infrastructure that can boost agricultural productivity and prioritize investments targeting regions with the lowest productivity growth rates and with the smallest share of land and workers. |
| Keywords: | Bolivia;Agriculture;total factor productivity;Latin America |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q12 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14632 |
| By: | Gong, Haozhou; Lin, Chen; Sautner, Zacharias; Schmid, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy (RE) is vital for addressing climate change, but the land use of hydro, solar, and wind plants can negatively affect biodiversity through habitat destruction. By combining spatial biodiversity data, satellite imagery, and asset-level information on 40, 911 RE plants, we develop a novel measure of RE’s biodiversity impact around the world. We find that solar plants cause the greatest negative impact overall, while hydro plants are located in the most biodiversity-sensitive areas. The biodiversity impact of RE has grown substantially over time, driven by increased land use and siting in more biodiversity-sensitive locations. This impact is highly concentrated, with the top 1% of plants and owners being responsible for the majority of impact. Three finance applications of our measure show that plants with private or financial owners and those that are project financed have lower biodiversity impacts. |
| Keywords: | Renewables; Biodiversity |
| JEL: | Q57 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20846 |
| By: | Shun Mitamura (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Jagu Schippers Emma (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Thierry Brunelle (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Yann Kervinio (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | National payments for standing forests could be a complement, or an alternative to baseline-based reduced deforestation mechanisms. The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), launched at COP30, exemplifies this approach by proposing uniform per-hectare payments combined with penalties for deforestation. This paper evaluates whether such payments are economically sufficient to deter deforestation. Using spatially explicit estimates across tropical forest countries, we benchmark the TFFF's reward-penalty structure against the opportunity costs of forest conversion. Results show substantial heterogeneity in agricultural opportunity costs. While the TFFF's base payment of $4 per hectare represents only a small share of aggregate opportunity costs, its penalty mechanism ($400-800 per hectare) could economically deter deforestation in regions with low to moderate agricultural returns. However, the mechanism is unlikely to counterbalance agricultural opportunity costs in areas of high agricultural value, notably in Brazil. The findings suggest that national per-hectare standing forest payments can provide meaningful deterrence in specific contexts, but their effectiveness depends critically on spatial economic conditions and institutional enforcement capacity. Uniform land-based incentives should therefore be complemented by targeted domestic policies. |
| Keywords: | Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), REDD+, Payments for ecosystem services, Opportunity cost, Climate finance, Paris Agreement |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05686008 |
| By: | Magali Aubert (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Anna Lungarska (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Karine Robineaud (DipSO - Direction pour la Science Ouverte - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | La présentation vise à rappeler les enjeux à la création d'une collection et à décliner le processus d'identification des outputs des agents du collectif CATI-CITISES |
| Keywords: | Collection |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05669371 |
| By: | Tolipov, Ibrokhim; Abdushukurov, Jasur |
| Abstract: | Promoting digital agriculture is one of the ways to increase the productivity of farms, reduce the use of resources and enhance management. However, adoption of digital tools in practice also requires farmer's willingness and capacity. This paper explored the attitude of farmers to the use of digital agriculture in the region of Qibray in Uzbekistan, Tashkent Region, where there is a lack of direct evidence at the level of farmers and the national digitalisation policy is developing. The study evaluated the association between socio-economic, ICT-related and behavioural factors with adoption and the relationship between the perceived productivity, income and management outcomes of adopters and the non-adopters. A positivist quantitative design was used, based on a structured survey of 60 active farmers. The data were analyzed, using descriptive statistics, group comparison tests, correlation analysis and binary logistic regression, in Stata software. The results revealed a definite awareness-acceptance gap as only 33.3% of the respondents were adopters, while high levels of smartphone ownership and internet access were observed, with platform awareness also high. The socio-economic and ICT variables were found to be weak support, whereas behavioural readiness, particularly future intention, was found to be more significant. Adopters experienced higher productivity and management improvements while income improvement was weaker. The study suggests that training, affordability, advisory services and farmer confidence are key policy areas to focus on in digital agriculture. |
| Keywords: | digital agriculture, technology adoption, farmers’ behavior, Uzbekistan, Qibray district, ICT, behavioural readiness, farm management |
| JEL: | Q16 O33 Q12 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341697 |
| By: | Vanden Eynde, Oliver; Vargas, Juan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how climate change and natural resource dynamics contribute to conflict, with a focus on the implications of the green transition. It reviews empirical evidence showing that extreme weather events - such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves - are linked to increased violence, particularly through economic disruptions, reduced agricultural productivity, and displacement. The analysis also explores the mechanisms through which climate shocks influence conflict, including opportunity costs, resource competition, and behavioral responses to environmental stress. The discussion then turns to the role of natural resource exploitation, especially in the context of rising demand for minerals essential to low-carbon technologies. The paper highlights how resource price and availability shocks can trigger conflict, often depending on the type of resource, extraction method, and local governance. It also addresses the overlap between climate- and resource-driven conflict risks, emphasizing that their interaction may amplify instability. Throughout, the paper identifies open research questions related to prediction, the effects of long-run environmental changes, and the design of policy responses. These include insurance schemes, climate adaptation strategies, infrastructure investment, and regulatory frameworks for resource governance. The findings point to the need for research that integrates climate and conflict dynamics, with the goal of informing policies that can mitigate the risks associated with environmental change and resource pressures. |
| Keywords: | Conflict; Climate shocks; Climate change; Natural resources |
| JEL: | D72 D74 L23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21170 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report reviews six indices of environmentally sustainable productivity growth (SPG) that integrate agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth and trends in four agri-environmental externalities at the national level. The findings reveal only minor differences across indices when environmental dimensions are assigned low weights, but these differences widen as weights increase. This variation reflects index-specific conditions under which SPG exceeds TFP. Some indices require externalities to grow more slowly than outputs or input (relative decoupling) while others require externalities to decrease (absolute decoupling). Three case studies (Mexico, The Netherlands and New Zealand), illustrate potential drivers of SPG. In Mexico, improved market access resulting from trade-agreements, alongside shifts in agricultural support appeared to be key factors. In the Netherlands, regulatory measures targeting ammonia, fertilisers and manure management contribute to positive SPG outcomes. In New Zealand, performance is associated with export-driven output growth, herd dynamics, and the adoption of new technologies. |
| Keywords: | Agri-environmental performance, Agriculture, Environment, Total Factor Productivity |
| JEL: | D24 O44 Q18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:228-en |
| By: | Burchardi, Konrad; Lerva, Benedetta; de Quidt, Jonathan; Tripodi, Stefano |
| Abstract: | Fertilizer adoption is persistently low among Sub-Saharan African farmers. Numerous governments have responded by introducing substantial price subsidies, but solving an allocation problem by introducing price distortions has unclear welfare implications. This paper presents results from a theory-guided experiment on fertilizer adoption among Ugandan farmers, finding that there exists a group of farmers with high returns to fertilizer, who would not adopt at the market price but can be induced to adopt with a 30% subsidy. Furthermore, consistent with adoption frictions due to liquidity constraints, the results indicate that a cash transfer is sufficient to eliminate the need for subsidies. These findings tie into broader ideas on second-best policymaking (Lipsey and Lancaster, 1956) and have important implications for fertilizer policy in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Technology adoption; Second-best policy; Subsidies; Selective trials; Development |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21023 |
| By: | Bartolucci, Francesco; Crippa, Andrea; Pieroni, Luca |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of social protection spending on mitigating food insecurity across Europe between 2005 and 2023. Despite strong economic development, food insecurity remains a major challenge, reflecting persistent socio-economic vulnerabilities worsened by crises such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using longitudinal microdata from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we estimate a logit model with random individual effects and fixed country effects to analyze its determinants, while accounting for cross-country heterogeneity in welfare systems. The results show that higher social protection spending is associated with a 0.30 percentage-point reduction in food insecurity, with effects that are robust and stronger during economic downturns. This improvement is mainly mediated through income. These findings highlight social protection as a central instrument of food-security policy in high-income countries, where food insecurity is driven less by aggregate food availability than by unequal access, affordability constraints, and household exposure to income shocks. The results suggest that food policy should not be limited to food aid or supply-side interventions but should also include income-support mechanisms capable of protecting vulnerable households from trade-offs between food and other essential expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Food insecurity; social protection; food affordability; welfare regimes; EU-SILC; food policy |
| JEL: | E62 H53 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129637 |
| By: | Daria, Loginova; Mann, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This study is the first to apply biclustering to households’ home consumption of food and finds patterns of households and foods that may account for factors of consumption in Switzerland. We define and label five overlapping biclusters—basic, vegan processed, old & poor, vegan raw and sweet-toothed — which are distinguished mainly by age and household size. Our results may help to target food and nutrition policy and marketing activities in the future by using clearer behavioural information about consumers. |
| Keywords: | food consumption; biclustering; Switzerland |
| JEL: | C49 |
| Date: | 2025–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123419 |
| By: | Vedarshi Shastry |
| Abstract: | This paper finds diverging partial effects of diurnal warming (higher nighttime and daytime temperatures) on agricultural wage-labour shares from decadal Indian Censuses (1981-2011). Though both margins contract grain output and cultivated area, only higher maxima raise harvest prices locally, consistent with a model where warmer nights shock land but warmer days shock land and labour productivity. Warming nights shift seasonal workers and self-cultivators into agricultural labour; warming days push labour to the seasonal margin. Long differences show the labour divergence is rural. In towns, both margins depress non-agricultural worker shares. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.00279 |
| By: | Prince, Ehsanur Rauf |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macro-econometric relationship between external sector dynamics and agricultural food production in Ethiopia. Utilizing a comprehensive structural framework, this study investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of official development assistance (ODA), foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, and personal remittances on the Ethiopian Food Production Index. Using annual time-series data spanning from 1990 to 2024 and employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the framework captures complex cointegrating properties and systemic feedback mechanisms. The empirical findings indicate that trade openness and macroeconomic remittances exert statistically significant positive effects on food production in the long run. Foreign direct investment demonstrates a positive but modest long-run contribution, while official development assistance exhibits a minor negative impact, highlighting potential aid-dependency distortions and structural misallocation. The error correction term is found to be -0.65, implying a robust and rapid adjustment speed toward long-run equilibrium. These insights indicate that Ethiopia can structurally optimize its food production systems by deepening regional and global trade integration, creating targeted agro-industrial investment frameworks, and formalizing diaspora resource channels. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia, Food Production, Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment, Remittances, Official Development Assistance, VECM |
| JEL: | E0 F0 F1 F4 F41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129427 |
| By: | Lena Wiest; Klas Wetterberg; Max Skoczylas; Elisa Lanzi |
| Abstract: | Carbon credit markets are flexible tools that can incentivise greenhouse gas mitigation at different scales. Historically, most carbon credits have been generated at the project level, but crediting approaches at larger scales are emerging. These approaches can operate across entire jurisdictions, sectors or policies, placing governments at the centre of the crediting approach. This enables a wider range of mitigation efforts, including government strategies, policies and enforcement. For scaled-up crediting to effectively support climate change mitigation, approaches must be designed and implemented with a high level of integrity. This paper examines key integrity considerations in scaled-up crediting, with a focus on environmental integrity in jurisdictional forest crediting. The analysis highlights that scaled-up crediting can help address certain integrity risks associated with project-based crediting, but considerable methodological and implementation challenges remain. The paper presents strategic considerations for donor governments to help ensure that scaled-up crediting approaches become more effective tools for climate change mitigation. |
| Keywords: | Article 6, carbon credit markets, climate change mitigation, co-operative approaches, environmental integrity, greenhouse gas emissions, integrity, jurisdictional, Paris Agreement, policy-based, REDD+, scaled-up crediting, sectoral, social integrity |
| JEL: | F55 G14 H23 Q52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:276-en |
| By: | Kim, Dongin; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | This article evaluates the market impacts of recent U.S. trade policy pivots on agricultural machinery imports under HS headings 8432 (soil preparation and seeding equipment) and 8433 (harvesting and threshing machinery). Utilizing product-level trade elasticities, we conduct an ex-ante simulation to project 2026 imports following the implementation of Presidential Proclamation 11021. While the initial April 2026 action imposed a steep 25% Section 232 tariff, the subsequent June 1 modification retroactively lowered the rate to a temporary 15% through 2027 to mitigate severe equipment shortages. Our projections indicate that the 15% tariff preserves an estimated $114.3 million in soil preparation equipment and $478.9 million in harvesting machinery compared to the 25% scenario; however, overall imports remain 20% to 25% below 2025 levels. Furthermore, domestic manufacturing indicators reveal severe cost-push constraints, suggesting domestic production cannot serve as an immediate or affordable cushion against this broader market shock. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:404815 |
| By: | Rammohan, Anu; Balla, Shalem; Sharma, Anjali; Goli, Srinivas; Nedumaran, Swamikannu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dynamic relationship between transitions in cropping pattern and economic growth in India over the period 1966 to 2017, specifically focusing on the relationship between crop production diversity and economic growth. Using the state-level panel data, we present two-way line graphs and estimate Quadratic regression models. This enables us to explore the intricate relationship between GDP per capita and the Shannon Diversity Index. By employing piece-wise regression models, we aim to discern any statistically significant breakpoints or shifts in this relationship. Finally, we estimate Quantile regression and Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) as robustness checks. Our empirical results show that crop production diversity decreased between 1966 and 1995 and then slightly increased, thereby resembling a 'U-shape relationship'. Using the year 1995 as a breakpoint, the piece-wise regression model shows a split relationship between the Shannon Crop Diversity Index and GDP per capita, with a negative relationship in the first period (1966-1995) and a positive relationship in the second (1996-2017). |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Crop Diversity, Economic growth, Gross Domestic Product, India |
| JEL: | Q1 Q18 F63 O13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341615 |
| By: | Seth Ampomah Duodu (International University of Japan); Norio Usui (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | With soaring domestic demand, Ghana has become highly dependent on imported rice, thereby tying domestic rice prices more closely to international prices. This study aims to analyze how international and domestic rice prices interact, as well as how imported prices affect domestic prices across regions. This study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics of imported prices, domestic prices, world prices, and overall inflation. The data used are monthly data from ten major rice markets in Ghana for the period 2012 to 2024. The results indicate a long-run relationship between imported and domestic rice prices, and some degree of integration with the global market. Price transmission is faster in coastal markets but slower in the north, where shocks can take more than a year to be reflected in local prices. Ineffective policies, poor infrastructure, and macroeconomic instability explain why Ghana is largely a price taker. This study clarifies region-specific cross-market price transmission, identifying a clear south-north transmission gradient and slower adjustment speeds compared to those found in previous studies. |
| Keywords: | Price transmission, Imported rice, Local rice, ARDL model |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_13 |
| By: | Edenhofer, Ottmar; Franks, Max |
| Abstract: | We develop a unified cost-benefit framework that allows for a better understanding of nature conservation and climate policies under risk and uncertainty. We derive modified Hotelling rules from a social planner’s welfare optimization. They reveal four forces that jointly determine market design for climate and nature conservation: First, discounted marginal climate damages enter the social cost of carbon (SCC) and marginal ecosystem services the social value of nature (SVN). Second, climate and nature are coupled, which raises both prices: degradation of ecosystems increases the SCC, while climate damages raise the SVN. Third, a climate-nature beta quantifies additional hedging components of policies against fat tails, when we consider a stochastic setting with exogenous random shocks. The climate-nature beta summarizes the option values for abatement, adaptation, ecosystem restoration and carbon dioxide removal. Fourth, Markov markups quantify tipping risks, which we capture by extending the model to a constrained Markov decision process with state-contingent transition probabilities. Thereby, we endogenize tipping points: the likelihood of moving into a high-damage regime becomes a function of the atmospheric carbon stock and natural capital, which depend on policy choices. Thus, hazard risks are a policy-sensitive component of the system’s dynamics. The model yields state-contingent asset-pricing formulas for carbon prices, restoration subsidies, land charges, and capacity payments. We propose institutions at the level of the European Union that could implement Pigouvian taxes and subsides as well as new types of SCC- and SVN-indexed bonds to share non-diversifiable risks arising from Earth's changing climate and the degradation of its biosphere. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity; Sustainability; Asset pricing; Welfare economics |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 Q57 D81 G12 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21090 |
| By: | Brzezinski, Adam; Garicano, Luis |
| Abstract: | Political narratives on climate policy have turned more skeptical despite mounting evidence of climate urgency. We explain this shift with a theory of narrative entanglement: to appeal to voters, politicians intertwine economic and environmental narratives rather than treating them separately. Hence, shocks unrelated to climate change can impact environmental narratives. We test our theory in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which affected the economic costs of the European Green Deal without changing its impact on emissions. We use large language models to identify climate narratives across all speeches in the 9th European Parliament (2019-2024). Exploiting only variation within each parliamentarian, we show that after the invasion, narratives become both more negative in the cost assessments of climate policies and more skeptical about their environmental impact. |
| Keywords: | Narratives |
| JEL: | D72 D91 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20829 |
| By: | Lumbanraja, Alvin; Mouabbi, Sarah; Passari, Evgenia; Rousset Planat, Adrien |
| Abstract: | Commodity supply shocks are a plausible but empirically elusive source of business-cycle fluctuations. We develop a comprehensive framework to measure them, constructing daily supply and demand proxies for 20 commodities — spanning energy, metals, agriculture, and livestock — from textual analysis of over one million news articles (2001-2023). These measures allow us to separate supply from demand across the full commodity market, not just oil. A striking finding emerges: non-oil supply disruptions affect inflation and industrial production at least as strongly as oil disturbances, a result previously undocumented in the literature. Transmission varies sharply with countries' commodity trade positions: net importers experience more persistent output contractions and stronger inflation pass-through, while net exporters are partially insulated. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21244 |
| By: | Dechen Wangmo (International University of Japan); Norio Usui (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | The facilitated market linkage program in Bhutan was initiated to raise farmers f income by linking them with institutional markets such as schools and training academies for the national service program. While policy reports and media sources have repeatedly documented its positive impact on farmers f income, there is limited empirical evidence. This study hence aims at evaluating the impact of the program on farmers f income by applying the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) with radius matching method. A convenience non-probability sampling technique was used in the field survey to collect the household level data in Wangdue Phodrang district, Bhutan. The determinants of participation in the program are also examined using a logit model. The results indicate a significant impact of the facilitated market linkage program on farmers f income. Participating farmers earn an annual income of about BTN 156, 030 more than the non-participating farmers, ceteris paribus. Higher prior income, greater distance to the market, and female-headed households, are positively associated with the program participation. Technology adoption, measured by the use of greenhouses and feeding machines, is negatively associated with the participation. The estimated positive impact of the program on the farmers f income is consistently robust across all alternative model specifications. |
| Keywords: | Facilitated market linkage program, Farm income, PSM, Logit model, Group collection, Technology adoption, Gender |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_12 |
| By: | Diksha Gupta; Ritwick Mishra; Achla Marathe; Krista Danielle Yu; Anil Vullikanti |
| Abstract: | Global supply chains are highly interconnected, making them vulnerable to cascading disruptions induced by trade policy shocks. Understanding how such disruptions propagate through production networks, and how mitigation mechanisms such as trade reallocation and production adjustment can alleviate their impacts, remains a central challenge. In this work, we develop a linear programming formulation of an Input-Output (IO) system that captures cascading supply-chain disruptions together with trade reallocation and production expansion. Our formulation yields a system-level equilibrium characterization that enables the joint analysis of disruption propagation and mitigation within a unified framework. We propose an efficient algorithm for computing approximate equilibrium solutions by minimizing total unmet demand in large IO systems. We apply our approach to tariff-induced disruptions in the global oilseeds supply chain arising from the U.S.-China trade war. Our results show that a localized 70% disruption to flows from the U.S. oilseeds sector to China leads to a 3.27% loss in global output, with China experiencing a disproportionate loss of 14.02%. As a counterfactual mitigation strategy, allowing a 20% reallocation from Brazil's oilseed sector to China significantly reduces global output losses to 1.36%, although pressure remains high on final-demand flows. We further investigate production expansion as an additional mitigation mechanism and show that it introduces tradeoffs between reducing global final-demand losses and protecting Brazil's domestic flows. Domestic reallocation disproportionately shifts losses toward smaller economies, while globally sourced expansion redistributes losses more broadly across the network. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.30685 |
| By: | Jack, Kelsey; Ryan, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Economic development relies on and transforms the environment. The transformation is evident in the poor environmental quality in many developing countries. For example, air quality in Southeast Asia is three times worse than in the United States, in sub-Saharan Africa four times worse and in South Asia more than six times worse. We model how environmental quality affects health, productivity and well-being and how individuals privately adapt to environmental hazards. We also model how collective action and formal regulation contribute to environmental quality. We draw three main findings from a review of empirical research on these mechanisms. First, individual adaptation to environmental hazards is both inadequate as a remedy and inefficiently low. Second, collective action, without the state, to manage resources or address externalities has been outstripped by the scale of environmental problems. Third, state action through formal regulation works better than it looks. Many formal regulations are coarse, poorly targeted and inefficient, but nonetheless yield benefits in excess of their costs. |
| Keywords: | Economic development; Pollution; Climate change |
| JEL: | O10 Q0 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21087 |
| By: | Friberg, Richard; Halseth, Emil M. S.; Steen, Frode; Ulsaker, Simen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how consumer price knowledge affects shopping behavior and the prices consumers pay in grocery markets. We combine survey-based price recall data from over 2000 Norwegian households — yielding over 70 000 price recalls across two grocery chains and 24 products—with 18 months of of linked individual-level transaction histories. Better-informed consumers—those who recall prices more accurately—pay lower prices by timing purchases to coincide with sales. A 10 percentage point increase in price knowledge (approximately the interquartile range) is associated with a 1.3 percentage point reduction in prices paid. Our results provide direct support for the central mechanism in Varian’s (1980) model of sales: that informed consumers pay lower prices by exploiting temporary discounts. We also find that consumers who are more active in seeking information about prices have higher price knowledge. Taken together our results suggest that policies or tools that help consumers learn about prices may be effective in enhancing competition. Our findings also speak to a marketing literature that seeks to measure and explain consumer price knowledge. By linking survey data to actual shopping behavior, we contribute to this literature by demonstrating that shopping behavior and attitudes are stronger predictors of price knowledge than demographic characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Search costs |
| JEL: | D83 L10 L66 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20875 |
| By: | Gorin, Clement; Combes, Pierre-Philippe; Duranton, Gilles; Gobillon, Laurent |
| Abstract: | We provide a highly granular account of land-use change across France, comparing two snapshots taken approximately 160 years apart. Built or paved land increased from about 0.7% of the territory in 1860 to 5.2% in 2020. Over the same period, cropland contracted by 20 percentage points to 42%, and meadows nearly disappeared. Only a small fraction of these declines is explained by land development; instead, the shares of forests and pastures roughly doubled. Although recent policies aim to limit land development, our results suggest that the spatial dispersion of developed land may pose a greater concern than its total share. |
| Keywords: | historical maps; Computer vision |
| JEL: | N53 Q15 R14 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20946 |
| By: | João Godinho (Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group - WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Anja Coors (ECT Oekotoxikologie GmbH); Bruno Guimarães (Syngenta Agro); Jeroen Meeussen (International Biocontrol Manufacturers Association - Partenaires INRAE); Andrea van der Veen (ECT Oekotoxikologie GmbH); Dimitrios Karpouzas (Department of Biochemistry and Biotechnology - University of Thessaly); Jérémy Belzunces (International Biocontrol Manufacturers Association - Partenaires INRAE); Karen Duis (ECT Oekotoxikologie GmbH); Kutay Cingiz (Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group - WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Michael Werner (Syngenta Agro); Stefania Loutseti (Syngenta Agro); Stéphan Marette (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Justus Wesseler (Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group - WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]) |
| Abstract: | Background : The European Commission's recent "Vision for Agriculture and Food" aims to accelerate market access to Low-Risk Pesticides, yet the introduction of these products remains slower than warranted. This study consolidates and reviews the fragmented knowledge concerning the current status of Low-Risk Pesticides in the EU market, including their applications, regulatory constraints, stakeholder expectations, and market dynamics, to support the development of a more coherent and effective risk assessment framework at the EU level. Results : A detailed analysis of the current data requirements, regulatory documents, guidance documents, and manuals necessary to complete the risk assessment, in accordance with the framework outlined in Reg. 1107/2009, is provided. A comparison of the EU and US regulatory frameworks for pLRPs highlights potential regulatory barriers, e.g., the absence of formally adopted data requirements for several pLRP categories (botanicals, semiochemicals, and dsRNA), and substantially longer approval timelines relative to the US. We further investigated (i) how regulatory guidance can support National Authorities in interpreting the data requirements for risk assessment, and (ii) whether National Authorities have sufficient resources to assess potential Low-Risk Pesticides. To this end, an inventory of these documents and requirements was compiled and grouped by legal status and product category (microorganisms, botanicals, pheromones/semiochemicals, and dsRNA). In parallel, 19 EU Member States were surveyed regarding their expertise, resources, timelines, and fee structures. Results show wide disparities in National Authorities' expertise, dedicated expert groups, and application fees. Respondents highlighted the importance of harmonizing waiver criteria, developing fast-track procedures, and improving guidance for specific low-risk pesticide categories as key opportunities. Conclusions : The current EU regulatory framework for Plant Protection Products, while ensuring high safety standards, presents notable hurdles for the assessment and authorisation of Low-Risk Pesticides. To improve the efficiency-and ultimately the speed-of approving and introducing potential Low-Risk Pesticides into the EU market, while maintaining the adequacy, safety, and rigour of the risk assessment process, regulatory adjustments are required. These include the establishment of dedicated expert teams within National Authorities, harmonized guidance on waiving data requirements, and the adoption of novel assessment tools. These findings suggest concrete steps for enhancing the EU's regulatory framework to accelerate potential Low-Risk Pesticides authorization while safeguarding health and environmental standards. |
| Abstract: | Contexte : La récente « Vision pour l'agriculture et l'alimentation » de la Commission européenne vise à accélérer l'accès au marché des pesticides à faible risque, mais la mise sur le marché de ces produits reste plus lente qu'elle ne devrait l'être. La présente étude rassemble et analyse les informations fragmentées concernant la situation actuelle des pesticides à faible risque sur le marché de l'UE, notamment leurs applications, les contraintes réglementaires, les attentes des parties prenantes et la dynamique du marché, afin de soutenir l'élaboration d'un cadre d'évaluation des risques plus cohérent et plus efficace au niveau de l'UE. Résultats : Une analyse détaillée des exigences actuelles en matière de données, des textes réglementaires, des documents d'orientation et des manuels nécessaires à la réalisation de l'évaluation des risques, conformément au cadre défini dans le règlement n° 1107/2009, est fournie. Une comparaison des cadres réglementaires de l'UE et des États-Unis concernant les pesticides à faible risque (pLRP) met en évidence des obstacles réglementaires potentiels, par exemple l'absence d'exigences en matière de données officiellement adoptées pour plusieurs catégories de pLRP (produits botaniques, sémiochimiques et ARN double brin), ainsi que des délais d'autorisation nettement plus longs qu'aux États-Unis. Nous avons en outre examiné (i) comment les lignes directrices réglementaires peuvent aider les autorités nationales à interpréter les exigences en matière de données pour l'évaluation des risques, et (ii) si les autorités nationales disposent de ressources suffisantes pour évaluer les pesticides à faible risque potentiels. À cette fin, un inventaire de ces documents et exigences a été établi et regroupé par statut juridique et par catégorie de produits (micro-organismes, produits botaniques, phéromones/sémiochemicals et ARN double brin). Parallèlement, une enquête a été menée auprès de 19 États membres de l'UE concernant leur expertise, leurs ressources, leurs délais et leurs barèmes de redevances. Les résultats montrent de grandes disparités entre les autorités nationales en matière d'expertise, de groupes d'experts spécialisés et de redevances de demande. Les répondants ont souligné l'importance d'harmoniser les critères de dérogation, de mettre en place des procédures accélérées et d'améliorer les orientations pour certaines catégories spécifiques de pesticides à faible risque, y voyant des opportunités clés. Conclusions : Le cadre réglementaire actuel de l'UE relatif aux produits phytopharmaceutiques, tout en garantissant des normes de sécurité élevées, présente des obstacles notables pour l'évaluation et l'autorisation des pesticides à faible risque. Afin d'améliorer l'efficacité – et, à terme, la rapidité – de l'approbation et de la mise sur le marché européen de pesticides potentiellement à faible risque, tout en préservant l'adéquation, la sécurité et la rigueur du processus d'évaluation des risques, des ajustements réglementaires s'imposent. Il s'agit notamment de la mise en place d'équipes d'experts spécialisées au sein des autorités nationales, de l'élaboration de lignes directrices harmonisées concernant les dérogations aux exigences en matière de données, et de l'adoption de nouveaux outils d'évaluation. Ces conclusions proposent des mesures concrètes visant à renforcer le cadre réglementaire de l'UE afin d'accélérer l'autorisation des pesticides à faible risque potentiels tout en préservant les normes sanitaires et environnementales. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable pest management, Risk assessment harmonisation, Novel risk assessment, Biocontrol, Biocontrol Novel risk assessment Risk assessment harmonisation Sustainable pest management |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05679236 |
| By: | Nathalie Berny (IEP Rennes - Sciences Po Rennes - Institut d'études politiques de Rennes); David Baldock (Institute for European Environmental Policy); Ludivine Petetin (Cardiff University); Sophie Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Peter Matthews (The Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute [Cambridge]) |
| Abstract: | La décision du Royaume-Uni de quitter l'Union européenne suite au vote en faveur du Brexit en 2016 a conduit à un chantier législatif d'ampleur, afin de changer les dispositifs de soutien financier aux agriculteurs. Le bilan négatif de la politique agricole commune de l'Union européenne sur le plan écologique a inspiré une tentative de refondation de la politique agricole dans les quatre nations du Royaume-Uni. Ces dernières ont voulu mettre en pratique le principe de « l'argent public pour des biens publics », en particulier en Angleterre. L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser les dispositifs de réformes qui ambitionnent une écologisation des politiques agricoles à Bruxelles et outre-Manche. |
| Keywords: | direct payments, European Union, United Kingdom, environmental performance, politique agricole, Union européenne, Royaume-Uni agricultural policy, performance environnementale, paiements directs |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05672572 |
| By: | A. Luisi; F. Roccazzella; A. Triantafyllou (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | We examine the time-varying nature of the comovement of the slope of the futures curve in major agricultural, metals and energy commodity futures markets in a Global Vector Autoregressive model. We find significant comovement between the slopes, indicating the co-existence of backwardation and contango in many seemingly unrelated commodity futures markets. The degree of comovement in commodity futures curves intensifies during periods of financial and macroeconomic turmoil and increased geopolitical risk. In contrast, our analysis shows that the gold futures market becomes more backwardated (contangoed) when the rest of the commodity futures markets become more contangoed (backwardated). |
| Keywords: | Time varying Global VAR, Backwardation, Contango, Commodities, Futures markets |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05635286 |
| By: | Dupas, Pascaline |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews the evidence on geography's causal impact on economic development. The economics research on the causal impact of the disease burden, climate and soil conditions, and topographical constraints has moved beyond cross-country correlations to exploit natural experiments, historical shocks, and fine-grained spatial variation. The evidence shows that geographical factors have clear causal effects on development outcomes, both directly and indirectly, with sub-Saharan Africa at a particular disadvantage. Moreover, climate change will only exacerbate this disadvantage. |
| JEL: | O12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21249 |
| By: | Jonathan Gruber; Adam Solomon |
| Abstract: | Intensifying climate change makes protection against natural disaster risk – either through ex ante insurance or ex post aid – a first-order public policy issue. Flood risk protection in the U.S. traditionally featured ex post aid through FEMA and heavily subsidized insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). In an effort to correct subsidy-induced overbuilding and under-mitigation in flood-prone areas, the NFIP recently moved to actuarially fair insurance premiums. But this change has two unintended consequences: a fiscal spillover onto FEMA disaster aid as insurance coverage declines in flood-prone areas, and household exposure to uninsurable reclassification risk from uncertain climate projections. We develop a model of optimal flood insurance that incorporates the static and dynamic tradeoffs of subsidizing premiums. We then use a variety of identification strategies and data to estimate the five key parameters needed to implement this model. We find that the fiscal spillover and reclassification risk protection benefits significantly outweigh the moral hazard costs, and that the optimal subsidy to flood insurance is 52%, comparable to the level of subsidization before the recent reform. |
| JEL: | H22 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35408 |
| By: | Donato Romano |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, hunger has re-emerged as both a consequence and, in many cases, a deliberate instrument of contemporary armed conflicts. Drawing on approaches from international law, development economics, and comparative political science, this study analyzes the norms prohibiting the use of starvation as a warfare tool, the channels through which conflict generates food insecurity, and the economic mechanisms that perpetuate it. The research shows that, despite the codification of the prohibition in international humanitarian and criminal law, extensive zones of impunity persist due to enforcement limitations, difficulty in providing evidence of intent, and geopolitical interests. Empirically, contemporary conflicts are observed not only to destroy food supply chains but also to restructure the entire food economy, creating new rents and instruments of social control. The conclusion is that hunger in war is not a collateral effect, but an intentionally used political tool. Within this framework, the role of International Organizations proves to be decisive, as they stand at the center of a global system that seeks - through legal norms, diplomatic instruments, and operational interventions - to contain a phenomenon that strikes at the very foundations of the right to life. In the final section, an interdisciplinary agenda is discussed for strengthening legal accountability, economic resilience, and the prevention of hunger in conflict contexts. |
| Keywords: | starvation, conflict, international organizations |
| JEL: | D74 K33 O19 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2026_05.rdf |
| By: | HAYASHIDA, KOHEI |
| Abstract: | Demand estimation of perishable food products is challenging because freshness is typically not recorded in available data. To address this measurement challenge, I collect novel customer-transaction and batch-level-production panels—enabling direct observation of freshness for each individual unit in both consumer purchases and choice sets—from the prepared fried-food category of a Japanese grocery chain. With this unique data, I study consumer willingness-to-pay for freshness, its joint heterogeneous distribution with price sensitivity, and grocers’ optimal pricing by freshness using improved demand estimation. I build and estimate a model of consumer batch choice (i.e., freshness) for perishable goods, capturing heterogeneous freshness preferences and price sensitivity. I find that consumer demand for freshness is substantial, with an additional hour of freshness for an average product equivalent to 4.0% of its full price, but freshness preferences also correlate with price sensitivity, implying an absence of purely price-driven consumers. I then model the retailer’s dynamic markdown problem—trading-off discount losses against future stockout losses—and show that optimal markdowns can be zero under observed heterogeneity and the production process. I implement the proposed policy in the focal store; the structural model predicts a focal profit increase of 2.24% (95% posterior predictive interval [1.91, 2.60]), and a field implementation yields a profit increase of about 6.3%, consistent with this prediction. My findings can explain cross-grocer differences in pricing-by-freshness policies as a function of consumer heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2026–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a2twx_v1 |
| By: | Martinez, Ricardo; Moreno-Ternero, Juan; Pan, Pengshan; Weber, Shlomo |
| Abstract: | Since trans boundary rivers support large populations and economic production, the challenge of a fair water sharing became an issue of increasing importance across the world. Yet the existing research which describes various paths of cooperation, treaty formation, and institutional durability, does not offer an operational benchmark and a clear standard against which negotiated allocations can be evaluated. In this paper we study fair protocols resorting to allocation rules with strong normative grounds, connected to the principle of Territorial Integration of all Basin States. We then apply our results to the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers of the Aral Sea Basin, where post-Soviet institutional fragmentation emerged from a previously unified hydraulic system. Our approach accommodates the Aral Basin’s multi-path configuration and allows for computable fairness benchmarks that can guide the evaluation and reform of allocation regimes. |
| JEL: | D23 D63 Q25 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21064 |