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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Greenslade, Wallis; Jameson, Daisy; Tron, Madeleine |
| Abstract: | Climate change and nature degradation are creating increasingly frequent and severe impacts on the agri-food system in the European Union. This is driving crop losses across Member States, affecting local labour markets, supply chains, rural lending and related economic activities. These losses are largely uninsured, leaving crop farmers without the financial resilience to respond to these risks or prepare for future risks. Underinsurance in the crop sector has important implications for EU Ministries of Finance in their role in dampening the potential macroeconomic effects of agri-food shocks, maintaining rural sustainability and avoiding undue fiscal pressure from post-disaster expenditure. However, Ministries have several levers they can utilise to promote crop insurance as a fiscal tool for climate adaptation and nature restoration. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138509 |
| By: | Turner, Dylan |
| Abstract: | The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) introduced several modifications to the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs including higher reference prices, revised payment formulas, a "higher-of" provision, and expanded base acreage. This brief quantifies the marginal impact of each provision by computing payments under five policy scenarios using historical FSA data for all covered commodities from 2019 to 2025. Results indicate that the OBBB provisions would roughly triple cumulative ARC/PLC outlays relative to the 2018 Farm Bill, with formula and reference price changes accounting for the largest share of the increase. Impacts vary substantially across commodities. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401220 |
| By: | Sánchez, Marco V.; Cicowiez, Martín; Fontes, Francisco Pereira; Nakelse, Tebila |
| Abstract: | In 2014, African governments pledged to allocate 10% of public spending to agriculture in pursuance of 6% agricultural GDP growth. Most countries have not met these targets but, still, they reaffirmed their commitment to meet similarly ambitious targets in the 2025 Kampala Declaration. The CAADP Strategy and Action Plan 2026–2035, which broadens the focus from agriculture to agrifood systems, recognizes the importance of improving spending quality but lacks an evidence-based framework to enable it. We assess whether increasing spending on agriculture to reach 10% of total spending is enough to achieve agricultural growth targets in six sub-Saharan countries. We apply the policy optimization tool, PolOpT, which combines a multi-criteria decision-making technique with a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We find that the level of spending to achieve 6% agricultural GDP growth depends on countries’ specificities, including economic structure, inter-sectoral linkages and fiscal capacity. Spending quality (i.e., optimizing spending allocation) can matter more than spending quantity in some countries. Evidence-based, country- specific allocations are essential to maximize the impact of public spending on agricultural productivity and broader societal objectives. Countries should optimize agri-food expenditure composition for increasing cost-effectiveness, setting targets more realistically, and meeting their agri-food GDP target by 2035 |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:401175 |
| By: | Suarez, Ronny |
| Abstract: | This working paper analyzes how variations in water management, technological intensity, and regional conditions shape both productivity and emission profiles in rice cultivation, using Brazil as an empirical case study. By contrasting irrigated and rainfed systems and applying IPCC methodologies, the study underscores the relevance of carbon intensity, rather than absolute emission levels, as a more policy-oriented metric for guiding sustainable agricultural strategies. |
| Keywords: | carbon intensity; rice; tCO2e |
| JEL: | Q01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128938 |
| By: | Lwin, Wuit Yi; Keller, Andrew; Arita, Shawn; Cooper, Joseph; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | Proposition 12 sets animal confinement legislation (ACL) that pork must meet to be sold in California. Because the rule applies at the point of sale, its effects run through the entire supply chain, from the farm and packing plant to the retail shelf. Using weekly Circana retail scanner data and Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR) data, this brief examines the retail and wholesale impacts of Proposition 12 and estimates compliance costs along the supply chain. At retail, the California price gap relative to the rest of the United States widened sharply after full enforcement and has remained elevated for two full years, with cut-level premiums rising by 14 to 32 percentage points. California's share of total U.S. pork volume declined from 8.5% to 7.1%, with the largest drop in ribs. Sausage, an exempt benchmark, showed no change in its price premium. At wholesale, ACL-compliant pork accounted for an average of 5.3% of reported volume and traded at a compliance-attributable premium of 24.2 cents per pound, indicating that compliant and conventional pork coexist as parallel wholesale channels rather than a market converging on full compliance. Applied to observed volumes from January 2024 to January 2026, these premiums imply an estimated economic burden of $184.7 million at wholesale and $403.1 million at retail in California and Massachusetts combined. Producers received $121.6 million in compliance premiums, packers retained $63.1 million in net margin, and the remaining $218.4 million reflects retail amplification. The retail price effect was therefore nearly three times the wholesale compliance premium, indicating that the largest economic effects emerged between the packing plant and the retail shelf. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2026–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401233 |
| By: | Raffaele Della Croce; Daisy Jameson; Maxwell Read; Esin Serin; Anna Valero |
| Abstract: | The UK is experiencing increasing impacts from climate change, including more frequent and severe floods, heatwaves and storms. It needs to prepare more for these impacts. It also needs to honour its pledge to support climate adaptation efforts in developing countries. The UK should maximise the opportunity from an increase in the demand for adaptation goods and services, including flood defences, climate-resilient building materials and crops, innovative insurance products and treatments for vector-borne diseases, both at home and globally. There is an economic, social and environmental imperative to scale up and innovate in adaptation-related goods and services, especially in those areas where the UK has an existing and potential comparative advantage. |
| Keywords: | Green Growth, innovation |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepsps:56 |
| By: | Warren Maruyama (Hogan Lovells); Joseph W. Glauber (International Food Policy Research Institute); Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Nicki Ghazarian-Foye (Former Hogan Lovells) |
| Abstract: | US farmers have been among the biggest beneficiaries of US free trade agreements and the postwar creation of a rules-based global trading system. Under recent administrations, however, farmers have been disadvantaged by the US shift away from forging such trade pacts. Agriculture has also been one of the sectors most affected by the volatility and uncertainty of the first and second Trump administrations' high tariffs and trade wars. Both Trump administrations have compensated farmers for lost export revenue, but such a trade policy is not a sustainable long-term solution and cannot replace a more positive policy that improves trade rules and expands farmers' market access abroad. |
| Keywords: | trade, agriculture, retaliation, international trade negotiations |
| JEL: | F51 F53 F13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-8 |
| By: | Will Rafey |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes and applies new methods to value water rights and assess misallocation across competing uses in California, the world’s fourth largest economy. The empirical strategy combines detailed microdata on farms, evapotranspiration, historical water rights, and the hydrological flow network in order to isolate sources of inefficiency within the hydrological network, assess distributional implications of water access under current property rights, and evaluate alternative mechanisms for water reallocation. |
| JEL: | D23 D61 L1 L2 Q1 Q24 Q25 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35176 |
| By: | Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); McCormack, Kristen (Resources for the Future); DeAngeli, Emma (Resources for the Future); Kota, Ambarish; Ziegler, Ethan (Resources for the Future); Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future); Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future); Wear, David N. (Resources for the Future); Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Overlapping economic, energy security, and environmental rationales have contributed to relatively broad political support for biofuel policy in the United States over time. Biofuels can reduce reliance on imported petroleum, create new markets for agricultural and forestry products, and are often discussed as a potential near-term option for decarbonizing difficult-to-electrify sectors such as aviation, marine shipping, and heavy-duty transport. Expanding biofuel production, however, can impact land and water use, biodiversity, and competition with food crops, and there is ongoing debate about how biofuel production, and the policies that support it, affect greenhouse gas emissions. Drawing on a 2025 Resources for the Future webinar series and a follow-up expert discussion with participants from industry, policy, and academia, this report discusses the potential role of biofuels in the energy transition, provides an overview of key areas of debate in life-cycle assessment and indirect land use change modeling, and highlights lessons from experience with existing federal and state biofuel policies. The report concludes by identifying policy-relevant knowledge gaps and research needs. |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-09 |
| By: | Astier, Jeanne; Barrows, Geoffrey; Calel, Raphael; Ollivier, Hélène |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because trade creates spillovers, comparing the change in outcomes of regions with different exposure to shocks leads to biased estimates. We model these between-region spillovers using standard assumptions from international trade theory, and develop a model-consistent strategy for estimating key parameters and deriving counterfactuals. We use our estimation strategy to revisit the literature on the impact of climate change on gross output. We find that accounting for trade spillovers yields substantially larger climate damage projections. |
| Keywords: | climate change; spillovers; trade; gravity |
| JEL: | Q48 L10 L50 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138243 |
| By: | Joséphine Gantois; Anouch Missirian; Evelina Linnros; Anna Tompsett; Amir Jina; Gordon C. McCord; Eyal G. Frank |
| Abstract: | Monitoring systems for disaster prevention are costly, and measuring benefits is difficult when monitoring effort is endogenous. We provide the first causal estimate of one such system's impact using three decades of desert locust monitoring data. We document conflict-induced interruptions to monitoring in remote breeding areas, reconstruct how infestations spread to populated areas, and show that exposure to locust swarms around birth decreases child height-for-age, increasing stunting risk by over 7 percentage points. Eliminating the locust monitoring system would induce annual losses of US$25 billion, implying a benefit-cost ratio between 160:1 and 680:1 from child nutrition benefits alone. |
| JEL: | I15 O13 Q0 Q5 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35215 |
| By: | Howai, Niko; Bian, Alice; De Guzman-Mortillero, Arnica; Robinson, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | Mangroves, especially in coastal areas, provide collective benefits to households, not just individuals. In this study, we undertake a comparison of individuals’ and couples’ intra-household decision-making on preferences for mangrove preservation expenditure and benefits using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in Palawan province in the Philippines. We find that men’s and women’s individual preferences differ when responding separately to the survey, and that their joint preferences align more with the men’s preferences. We also conducted in-depth interviews with a subset of the population considered to be marginalised and exempt from contributing to mangrove preservation payments under the DCE. The findings from the exemption interviews suggest strong support for community co-management of mangrove marine protected areas (MPAs), provided that income-generating alternative livelihood projects are created. This, in turn, is combined with the couples’ preferences in the DCE. The resulting preferences for mangrove benefits and their valuation can be used to inform the design and financing of MPAs that include co-managed mangrove protection and restoration projects with locals, as well as policies for the use of mangrove resources on the island. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment; intra-household preferences; in-depth interviews; hierarchical Bayesian logit; mangroves |
| JEL: | C11 C52 D12 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138521 |
| By: | Nguyen, Manh-Hung |
| Abstract: | Anticipated carbon pricing and biodiversity regulation turn agricultural subsidies into stranded assets. In a continuous-time model of partially irreversible capital under Poisson policy arrival, calibrated to Danish dairy, the stranding loss is strictly convex in the capital overhang. Under full pass-through of CAP support into livestock capital, Common Agricultural Policy payments amplify the loss by a factor of 13.2; at a 25% pass-through the multiplier is 1.7. A second biodiversity risk contracts the capital target by 60 percent; expected stranding losses are super-modular in the subsidy pair in the risk-neutral benchmark and satisfy the same ranking numer-ically in the calibrated HJB, so joint reform dominates staged reform. The welfare-maximising subsidy is zero once the social cost of methane exceeds e 19/tCO2e. |
| Keywords: | irreversible investment; policy risk; stranded assets; carbon taxation; biodiversity regulation; subsidy design |
| JEL: | E22 H23 Q18 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131713 |