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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Bharti Nandwani (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Ishita Verma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of India's landmark Forest Rights Act (FRA), which granted indigenous forest-dwelling communities legal rights to manage and protect forests, on the incidence of forest fires. Combining high-resolution satellite fire data with a village-level panel, we exploit pre-reform variation in forest cover in a difference-in-differences framework to identify the causal impact of the FRA on the occurrence and intensity of forest fires. We find that, following FRA, villages with greater forest cover experienced significant reductions in the likelihood and severity of fires. District-level data on the actual distribution of forest land titles corroborate these results. We further show that the decline in forest fires is accompanied by broader environmental improvements, including reductions in PM2.5 concentrations and burned area, highlighting the ecological gains from community-based forest governance. |
| Keywords: | Forest land rights, Property rights, Forest Fires, Environment, Common pool resources, Forest governance, Satellite data |
| JEL: | Q15 Q23 Q54 O13 H41 K11 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2026-006 |
| By: | Bugingo, Arnold; Mugabo, Lambert; MacDonald, Laura; Noriega, Abbie; Thomas, Evan; Muthike, Denis |
| Abstract: | Rural households in Rwanda face intensifying risks from climate variability, including erratic rainfall, recurrent droughts, and flooding that threaten food and water security. Households in areas with limited infrastructure and constrained livelihood options are particularly vulnerable due to reduced adaptive capacity. Drawing on longitudinal data from over 60, 000 household surveys and remote sensing observations, this study investigated the co-occurrence of household food and water insecurity and evaluated associations between geographical, biophysical, and socioeconomic factors and food insecurity outcomes. Approximately 19.4% of surveyed households—equivalent to about 2.8 million people nationally—experienced simultaneous food and water insecurity, with co-occurrence higher in the control group (21.1%) than in the intervention group (18.3%). A mixed-effects logistic regression revealed strong associations between food insecurity and water insecurity, household size, and income, with water insecurity increasing the odds of food insecurity by approximately 60%. These findings underscore the need for climate resilience programs in Rwanda to explicitly address the interplay between food and water insecurity alongside the mediating roles of climatic and non-climatic factors in shaping household well-being. |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a89e5_v1 |
| By: | Arteaga Vallejo, Julian Gabriel; De Roux, Nicolas; Gáfaro, Margarita; Ibáñez, Ana María; Pellegrina, Heitor S. |
| Abstract: | We study how weather shocks affect the farm-size distribution and agricultural productivity. Using survey data from several developing countries, we document new empirical patterns in farm-size dynamics and the effect of weather shocks. Drawing on unique administrative data from Colombia with land-transaction records, census-based farm sizes, and household surveys on consumption and investment, we show that shocks intensify land market activity and increase the number of small farms, reducing average farm size within regions. We calibrate a heterogeneous-agent model that endogenizes the farm-size distribution and use it to study mechanisms and the dynamic effects of weather shocks and climate change. |
| JEL: | O13 Q15 Q12 Q54 D24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14583 |
| By: | Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub |
| Abstract: | After more than seven years of drought, Morocco experienced exceptionally abundant rainfall during the winter of 2025-2026, reflecting increasingly marked water variability. This rapid alternation between chronic deficits and occasional excesses reveals the country's water paradox: a system historically centered on scarcity must now manage concentrated and intense extreme episodes. Hydraulic infrastructures helped limit human and economic impacts and ensured significant replenishment of water reserves. Nevertheless, some agricultural areas suffered localized losses affecting crops, forage stocks, livestock and value-chain logistics, exposing structural vulnerabilities. At the same time, groundwater recharge and improved dam filling rates create favorable prospects for upcoming agricultural seasons. These events underline the need to progressively adjust the hydraulic model to integrate excess water management and strengthen agricultural resilience and food security in the face of increasing climatic variability. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb11_26_1 |
| By: | Magnuszewski Piotr; Hegadorn Chris; Szewczyk Katarzyna; Bertolozzi Caredio Daniele (European Commission - JRC); Ciaian Pavel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report presents a comprehensive operational framework for stress-testing the European Union's food systems to identify vulnerabilities and enhance crisis preparedness. While the EU has historically maintained a stable food supply, the convergence of climate change, geopolitical instability, and economic volatility has created systemic risks that require a forward-looking assessment. The proposed methodology adopts a multidimensional view of food security, incorporating availability, physical and economic access, nutritional utilization, stability, sustainability, and human agency. By utilizing systems thinking and scenario-based foresight, the framework provides a structured process for mapping complex supply chains, designing plausible disruption scenarios, and evaluating cascading impacts. Central to this approach is the iterative collaboration between experts, who provide analytical rigor, and stakeholders, who offer practical sectoral insights. This methodology aims to empower policymakers and industry operators to transition from reactive crisis management to proactive resilience building, ensuring that the EU food system can withstand and adapt to the unpredictable shocks of the 21st century. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc145765 |
| By: | Vincent Blanfort (UMR SELMET - Systèmes d'élevage méditerranéens et tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Julien Demenois (UPR AIDA - Agroécologie et intensification durables des cultures annuelles - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Marie Hrabanski (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - UMPV - Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry); Nicolas Viovy (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jacques-André Ndione (ARAA - Agence régionale pour l'agriculture et l'alimentation); Moussa Waongo (AGRHYMET - Centre régional AGRHYMET); Maguette Kaire (AGRHYMET - Centre régional AGRHYMET); Lilian Blanc (UPR Forêts et Sociétés - Forêts et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Sylvain Schmitt (UPR Forêts et Sociétés - Forêts et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Séverine Bouard (Lincoln University [Nouvelle-Zélande]); Catherine Sabinot (UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - UNC - Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie - UG - Université de Guyane - UA - Université des Antilles - UM - Université de Montpellier); Pierre François Duyck (UMR PVBMT - Peuplements végétaux et bioagresseurs en milieu tropical - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UR - Université de La Réunion - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Philippe Birnbaum (UMR AMAP - Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Audrey Leopold (IAC - Institut Agronomique Néo-Calédonien); Julien Drouin (IAC - Institut Agronomique Néo-Calédonien); Fabian Carriconde (IAC - Institut Agronomique Néo-Calédonien); Laurent L'Huillier (IAC - Institut Agronomique Néo-Calédonien); Christophe Menkes (ENTROPIE [Nouvelle-Calédonie] - Ecologie marine tropicale des océans Pacifique et Indien - IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Délégation Ifremer de Nouvelle-Calédonie - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UNC - Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The atlas presented in this work analyses the challenges of climate change for agri-food systems, first through the lens of (1) greenhouse gas emissions, then (2) the impacts of climate change on the land sector, followed by (3) the question of the effects of climate change and mitigation challenges, and finally (4) by adopting an analysis by major regions. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05575148 |
| By: | Greenhill, Simon; Hsiang, Solomon; Balboni, Clare; Barrage, Lint; Bolliger, Ian W.; Boomhower, Judson; Diaz, Delavane; Druckenmiller, Hannah; Garg, Teevrat; Hino, Miyuki; Hong, Harrison; Kousky, Carolyn; Martinich, Jeremy; Nath, Ishan; Oremus, Kimberly L.; Park, R. Jisung; Phan, Toan; Proctor, Jonathan; Rafey, Will; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Simon, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Even under the most ambitious greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios, climate change will continue to affect human well-being for generations, with the severity of these impacts differing across mitigation pathways. Adapting to climate change is thus a necessary complement to mitigation. Because individuals, businesses, and communities benefit directly from their adaptation choices, the incentives they face as individuals to adapt are generally stronger than the incentives they face to mitigate emissions. Yet evidence to date suggests that communities are not systematically adapting to recent climate changes (1). What can policy-makers do to facilitate adaptation? Here, we draw on a burgeoning field of economic research on climate adaptation to identify when and how markets can be a promising tool for effective and efficient adaptation. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137221 |
| By: | Abdelmonim Amachraa |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the complexities of the Moroccan agricultural model from a systemic and paradoxical viewpoint. It highlights the fundamental contradiction facing Moroccan agriculture: balancing export-driven growth and global competitiveness with rising ecological challenges and social inequalities, especially amid increasing water scarcity. Despite a strong export performance, Morocco’s agricultural sector remains fragile because of environmental and social vulnerabilities worsened by climate change and resource limitations. By reviewing national policy development and analyzing the tensions between economic, social, and environmental domains, this study proposes an integrative governance framework grounded in paradox theory. Using case studies from key value chains, including fertilizers, fruits and vegetables, sugar, and wheat, the research underscores the need for systemic governance, and questions the traditional techno-economic model. The findings indicate that Morocco’s agricultural transformation must align with broader global trends in industry, technology, and geopolitics. Policies should aim to balance strategic sovereignty with global integration and ecological transitions. The paper emphasizes that Morocco’s strategic assets, including its advantageous position in agricultural inputs and its emerging scientific ecosystem, can support necessary advancements in the agri-food sector, ultimately fostering a systemic model that combines economic prosperity and national sovereignty. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaagr:pp_08-26 |
| By: | Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa |
| Abstract: | Using U.S. county-level data, we uncover a relatively overlooked coping strategy employed by farmers in response to cyclones: selective increase of pesticide application. By constructing a novel dataset spanning 25 years of tropical cyclone activity, pesticide use, and agricultural output, our difference-in- differences design reveals that farmers respond to cyclone shocks by applying more pesticides to protect their crops. On average, a typical U.S. farm applies approximately 2, 150–2, 250 kg more pesticides in both the event year and the following - around ten times the normal annual quantity. While rising pesticide use poses health and environmental risks, our heterogeneity analysis offers a more nuanced view. Farmers selectively boost pesticide applications to counter the rise in pests and pathogens that usually follow cyclones. They raise the use of lower-toxicity pesticides (e.g., 2, 4-D, Metolachlor) but not highly hazardous ones (e.g., Chlorpyrifos), suggesting endogenous avoidance behavior consistent with risk awareness and regulatory constraints. These results hold robustly across eight measures of cyclone intensity, including rainfall, wind speed, and duration. In terms of coping mechanisms, farmers not only intensify pesticide use on existing crops but also expand their harvested acreage to compensate for yield losses, with effects lasting up to four years after a cyclone event. Overall, our results indicate that pesticide intensification, though adaptive in the short term, imposes considerable e and environmental trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | Tropical Cyclone, Atlantic Basin, Pesticide Use, Difference-in-Differences. |
| JEL: | Q1 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128276 |
| By: | Vianney Dequiedt (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Audrey-Anne de Ubeda (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Andrea Dsouza (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Jean-Marc Gravellini (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | African agriculture employs 45% of the continent's working population and accounts for 21% of its GDP. Yet the sector's technical and economic performance remains insufficient, both to meet the continent's growing food needs and to fully leverage its key position within global food and industrial value chains. Every exogenous shock - financial crises, COVID-19, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East - highlights and exacerbates this situation, which is characterized by deep-seated structural constraints: rapid population growth, climate change, soil degradation, infrastructure deficits, insecurity, and weak institutional frameworks. The Kampala Declaration set ambitious targets for 2035 - increasing production by 45%, halving post-harvest losses, tripling intra-African trade, and mobilizing $100 billion - but achieving them requires enhanced coordination between public and private, African and international actors. Building productive, resilient, and sustainable African agri-food systems is a shared challenge for Africa and Europe. Ferdi identifies three areas of focus with significant multiplier effects and, for each, a priority for action at the Africa Forward Summit. |
| Keywords: | agri-food systems, Africa, African agriculture |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05614424 |
| By: | Lopez-Morales, Ernesto; Inostroza, Luis; Herrera, Nicolas; Araos, Ana Luisa; Mosso, Vicente |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the impact of ecosystem services (ES) on rural land values in southern Chile using a hedonic pricing model. The methodology integrates over 80, 000 georeferenced rustic plot transactions (1999–2023) with expert-scored data on 32 ES, including 21 regulating and 11 cultural services, mapped onto a hexagonal tessellation of structural land types. Spatial proximity to ES sources was weighted using inverse-distance functions. The results show significant and diverse effects of ES on land prices, revealing both positive (e.g., waste filtering) and negative (e.g., pollination) valuation impacts. These findings reveal critical gaps in Chile’s current tax appraisal system, which overlooks the contribution of natural capital to the formation of land value. The study emphasizes the need to modernize property taxation by incorporating the various contributions of ecosystem services to land. This approach enhances redistributive potential and strengthens territorial equity, particularly in ecologically sensitive, rapidly subdividing rural areas. |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bqtyz_v1 |
| By: | Tsiboe, Francis; Zhao, Hongxi |
| Abstract: | This brief provides early evidence that supplemental crop insurance adoption may rise sharply in 2026 under partial OBBBA implementation. Because 2026 acreage reporting is incomplete, the analysis uses observed policy counts for commodities in counties with sales closing dates on or before April 15, 2026, combined with historical acres-per-policy ratios, to project insured acreage and adoption. The 2026 subsidy increase to 80 percent for both ECO and SCO appears to have strongly increased policy sales. ECO policies rose from about 231, 000 in 2025 to 531, 000 in 2026, while SCO policies rose from about 63, 000 to 313, 000. Applying historical acreage relationships suggests ECO adoption could reach 51.6 percent of eligible acres and SCO adoption 23.3 percent in 2026. Growth is projected to be strongest in major row-crop states and among crops such as corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. The estimates remain preliminary but signal a major expansion in supplemental coverage. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401174 |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Makate, Clifton (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Land rental markets are often viewed as an important mechanism for improving allocative efficiency in smallholder agriculture. A growing literature has used nationally representative household panel data, particularly the LSMS–ISA surveys, to study land rental market participation and land allocation in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the reliability of these analyses depends critically on how accurately land ownership and operational holdings and rental transactions are measured in the survey data. <p> This paper examines how measurement instability in reported land holdings affects empirical assessments of land rental markets and allocative efficiency. Using LSMS–ISA panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda, we document substantial instability in reported ownership holdings across survey rounds and show that this instability is systematically correlated with land rental participation. Rental land access statistics for landless and land-poor tenants are particularly sensitive to instability in reported ownership, with strong implications for the assessment of how pro-poor land rental markets are. We also find persistent large imbalances between reported tenant and landlord activity, suggesting substantial underreporting of rented out land.<p> We then assess allocative efficiency using three complementary approaches: the Bliss–Stern benchmark relating net land leasing to owned land, dynamic models of tenant participation, and conditional rental intensity models. The results indicate that ownership measurement instability can affect estimates of allocative efficiency, but tenant-side dynamics remain informative. Overall, the findings suggest that while survey-based estimates of landlord participation may be unreliable, nationally representative panel data can still provide useful insights into land rental market functioning and underlying reasons for limited adjustment when measurement constraints are explicitly addressed. |
| Keywords: | Land rental market; allocative efficiency; data reliability policy relevance |
| JEL: | C23 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2026_004 |
| By: | Arita, Shawn; Wang, Ming; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | Under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (1994), the over-quota (Tier 2) tariff on U.S. sugar imports was set at 17.62 cents/lb and phased down to 15.36 cents by 2000. By 2025, inflation had eroded approximately 49% of its real value, narrowing the U.S.-world price spread to the point where over-quota entry became commercially viable. Tier 2 volumes surged from roughly 10, 000 STRV per year before FY2018 to a record 1, 231, 000 STRV in FY2024. Total imports remained stable, but their composition shifted from administered Mexican supply to arbitrage-driven supply that caps domestic prices. Using a partial equilibrium model, a stocks-to-use regression, and a stock-adjusted dynamic extension, we estimate that this compositional shift depressed domestic raw sugar prices by 5 - 8 cents/lb during FY2025 - FY2026, implying annual revenue losses of $0.9 to $1.5 billion. Adjusted for raw-to-refined price transmission, the industry-wide loss rises to $1.3 - 1.8 billion. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401163 |
| By: | Febinia, Clarissa Asha (University of Cambridge); Kusuma, Pradiptajati; Luqman, Hirzi; Lewis, Joseph; Limardi, Prisca C.; Apriyana, Isabella; Priliani, Lidwina; , Kristiawan; Sudoyo, Herawati; Malik, Safarina G. |
| Abstract: | Market access is a key factor in structuring food procurement in rural communities. For groups undergoing subsistence transition, market interactions further transform lifestyle, with direct consequences for their diet and health. The Punan of Borneo and the Orang Rimba of Sumatra in Indonesia represent traditionally hunter-gatherer groups with recent transition histories. In this study, we use a cross-sectional comparative design across these communities (7 groups; 297 participants) to examine the effects of lifestyle transitions on diet and health at the intersection of market integration and subsistence shifts. In particular, we profiled dietary composition, procurement strategies, and the consumption of sugar, cigarettes, and medicine. We then employed linear mixed-effects models to evaluate associations between these variables, transition states, demographic factors, and Body Mass Index (BMI). Results indicate that market integration variably impacts subsistence practices; specifically, it circumvents the need for food cultivation in early-transition communities and substitutes for wild game in late-transition contexts. Both market access and subsistence transition drive dietary shifts along with increased BMI. The latter process affects women more severely than men. Sugar consumption is high across all communities (68.6 g/daily on average), while cigarettes are most consumed by men in early-transition communities (93%); both have significant health implications. Considering the communities, lifestyle transition appears mediated by the interaction of forest degradation, local infrastructure, isolation, government/NGO initiatives, and market access. In sum, subsistence transitions in Indonesia likely occur within the context of and are driven by market access, influencing dietary composition with sex-specific impacts on health. |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qyn8w_v1 |
| By: | Stomps, Boris; Can, Muhlis; Brusselaers, Jan |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the environmental implications of biotrade openness, defined as the trade of biodiversity-based products as a share of GDP, within OECD countries between 2010 and 2022. Drawing on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and trade–environment nexus frameworks, the research aims to assess whether biotrade contributes to ecological sustainability in trade by reducing the ecological footprint. To address this objective, we construct a panel dataset for 37 OECD economies and apply a suite of advanced econometric techniques. These include cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root tests, Westerlund cointegration tests, method of moments quantile regression (MMQR), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests. The ecological footprint, sourced from the Global Footprint Network, serves as the primary indicator of environmental pressure. Empirical findings confirm the presence of an EKC relationship: economic growth initially increases ecological footprint, but after a threshold, further growth leads to environmental improvements. Most notably, biotrade openness exerts a consistent and statistically significant negative effect on the ecological footprint. This suggests that expanding biodiversity-based trade reduces environmental stress. These results have important policy implications. For OECD countries, promoting biotrade appears to be a viable strategy for aligning economic growth with environmental sustainability. The findings also support the integration of biotrade into environmental policy frameworks, trade agreements, and biodiversity conservation strategies. Policymakers should further incentivize sustainable supply chains and verify compliance with BioTrade principles to fully realize environmental gains. |
| Keywords: | Biotrade Openness; Trade; Ecological Footprint; Biodiversity; OECD; EKC; Quantile Regression; Sustainability. |
| JEL: | O1 O11 O13 Q5 Q50 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128368 |
| By: | Rising, James; Godfrey, Nick; Watkiss, Paul; Surminski, Swenja; Baeza Breinbauer, Daniela; Gutiérrez-Hurtado, Maria Paula; Pimenta, Maria João |
| Abstract: | This report provides a groundbreaking new synthesis of the economic and fiscal risks arising from physical climate change and the economic case for investing in adaptation to climate impacts. The report combines the results of nearly 300 studies and more than 6, 000 unique estimates of the consequences of climate change and adaptation investment, and includes case studies from six countries. The report shows that the macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of climate impacts are already significant, growing, and likely to continue and intensify without further efforts to adapt and increase resilience. The evidence shows that early and strategic adaptation investments can bolster economic stability, reduce debt levels and borrowing costs, and accelerate development. |
| Keywords: | adaptation; GDP; investment; resilience; risk; welfare |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137972 |
| By: | Fang, Ximeng; Innocenti, Stefania; Vogt, Sonja (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | Scalable behavioural interventions often struggle to engage the cognitive and psychological mechanisms that underlie durable changes in preferences and habits. This study provides a proof of concept for an underexplored intervention format: edutainment through video games. Partnering with a large video game company, we develop a game that embeds educational content on sustainable food consumption into an entertaining storyline. In a pre-registered field experiment (N = 4, 034 UK adults), participants are randomly assigned to play either one of three treatment versions of the game or a control version without environmental content. Real-world food choice behaviour is measured through incentivised online supermarket tasks. Relative to the control group, treated participants select grocery baskets with 20% lower environmental impact immediately after gameplay, an effect that remains at 8–10% in a follow-up 2–3 weeks later. Behavioural change results from a combination of knowledge gains, short-term salience and preference change. Strikingly, effects were particularly persistent among subjects with low baseline sustainability. Further evidence suggests that the intervention was effective partly because it provided an enjoyable experience and affected a rich set of beliefs and attitudes, including personal norms, efficacy, and perceived social norms. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-13 |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Dimico, Arcangelo (Queen's University Belfast); Tedeschi, Gian Luca (Univesity of Bergamo) |
| Abstract: | Using a combination of individual-level, bioclimatic, ethnographic, and archaeological data, we investigate the ancient origins of cross-country variation in preferences for redistribution. Our hypothesis is that contemporary attitudes toward redistribution are shaped by ancestral inequality, which arose as an endogenous adaptation of pre-Neolithic hunter-gatherer societies to seasonal food shortages induced by the seasonality of the wild progenitors of domesticated crops. Employing contemporary survey data and an epidemiological approach, we first show that migrants originating from countries characterized by higher ancestral inequality exhibit lower support for redistribution, and that this relationship is driven by the degree of crop seasonality in the migrants’ origin countries. Next, using data on premodern societies, we show that crop seasonality induces food storage practices, which in turn lead to inequality. The positive effect of food storage on inequality is corroborated by data from archaeological sites. Drawing on data from preindustrial polities, we uncover that the mechanism linking food storage to redistributive preferences operates through the positive influence of the former on tolerance for inequality. |
| Keywords: | preferences for redistribution, seasonal food shortage, crop seasonality, food storage, inequality, tolerance for inequality |
| JEL: | D63 H23 N50 O13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18647 |
| By: | Kritika Sharma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Taniya Ghosh (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Food price shocks are often treated as transitory and largely irrelevant for underlying inflation. In emerging economies, where food has a large weight, such shocks may be more persistent and broader in their effects. Using monthly CPI data for India from 2012 to 2025 this paper examines how inflation transmits across horizons from food to headline and core inflation, and whether food shocks affect core inflation directly or through headline inflation. Three findings emerge. First, food inflation leads headline inflation at medium- to long-run horizons, indicating that food price shocks are not purely short-lived. Second, headline inflation leads core inflation at longer horizons, consistent with second-round effects. Third, food and core inflation co-move at longer horizons. However, the predictive role of food inflation weakens for the exclusion-based core measure once controls are included, but persists for some statistical core measures. These results point to a sequential, horizon-dependent transmission mechanism and highlight the policy relevance of persistent food shocks. |
| Keywords: | Inflation dynamics, Food inflation, Headline inflation, Core inflation, Emerging economies |
| JEL: | E31 E52 C32 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2026-004 |
| By: | Alla Semenova |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the growing impacts of climate change in the US homeowner's insurance industry. As climate change-driven weather extremes and natural disasters have accelerated in their frequency and severity, they have inflicted increasingly more residential property damage and destruction, leading to surging losses and claims payouts for the US homeowner's insurance industry. Faced with worsening underwriting performance, the US home insurers have responded with higher homeowner's insurance premiums, reduced home insurance coverage, policy non-renewals, exits from high-risk geographic areas, and other changes to their business practices. Such climate-driven actions by home insurers have led to a crisis of homeowner's insurance affordability, availability, and protection. This crisis further undermines homeownership affordability, eroding homeowner finances, and threatening the stability of the US financial system. By focusing on the US homeowner's insurance industry, this paper provides a case study on the growing economic costs and impacts of climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change; extreme weather; homeowner’s insurance; home ownership affordability; homeowner finances; financial stability; federal policy |
| JEL: | D14 E31 E44 G01 G21 G22 G28 G51 G52 Q54 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1115 |
| By: | Antoine Heranval (BioSP); Olivier Lopez (CREST); Didier Ngatcha (CREST); Daniel Nkameni (CREST) |
| Abstract: | According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (2025), the average annual cost of natural catastrophes increased from 70--80 billion USD between 1970 and 2000 to 180--200 billion USD between 2001 and 2020. Reports from organizations such as the IFOA and the WWF highlight the need for the insurance sector to adapt to this rapidly evolving context by developing medium- to long-term strategies that go beyond the one-year horizon of prudential regulations such as Solvency II. This paper introduces an artificial intelligence framework based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (Conditional GANs) to generate future spatio-temporal trajectories of climatic indices. The approach focuses on the Soil Wetness Index (SWI), a key indicator used in France to assess drought severity. Drought accounts for approximately 30% of the indemnities paid under the French natural catastrophe insurance scheme. The proposed model, SwiGAN, simulates plausible drought propagation patterns up to 2050 for a region of France particularly exposed to this hazard. By generating realistic sequences of SWI maps, SwiGAN provides insights into drought dynamics under climate change scenarios and supports the design of adaptive risk management and insurance strategies. The methodology is also generalizable to other climate-related perils and actuarial applications such as economic scenario generation. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.06678 |
| By: | Klein Martins, Guilherme; Kaltenbrunner, Annina; Löscher, Anne; Rodrigues, Isabella; Waaifoort, Maria; Axl Araujo, Karina |
| Abstract: | Pressure on ecosystem services can reduce and destabilise export earnings, raise import costs and dependence, and tighten external financing through higher risk premia. In Brazil, several important activities for earning foreign exchange (FX) are dependent on nature, creating scope for feedback between ecological stress, financing conditions and currency volatility. This new brief from the Land and Ocean series explores these critical channels for understanding macroeconomic risks in Latin America and further afield, providing new insights into the impact of nature degradation on the balance of payments (BoP) and exchange-rate dynamics. |
| JEL: | N0 E6 |
| Date: | 2026–04–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137981 |
| By: | Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou (Department of Economics, University of Piraeus); Athanasios Triantafyllou (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty by explicitly accounting for comovement across commodity markets. Using quarterly realized volatilities of major agricultural, metals, and energy commodity prices, we estimate a hierarchical dynamic factor model that decomposes uncertainty into a global component, common to all commodities, and group-specific components capturing sectoral uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty factors are then embedded into country-specific Structural VAR models to assess the dynamic macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks through impulse response functions. We focus in particular on business investment and exports across a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Our results show that a global commodity price uncertainty shock generates sizable and persistent recessionary effects on investment and trade worldwide. Benchmark comparisons indicate that this global commodity uncertainty shock produces larger and more persistent macroeconomic contractions than standard uncertainty measures. Importantly, we show that, once global uncertainty is accounted for, commodity-specific uncertainty shocks exhibit differentiated effects. Increases in agricultural and metals price uncertainty lead to contractionary outcomes, whereas energy-specific uncertainty shocks generate positive short-run responses in investment and exports. These findings provide new empirical evidence that oil price uncertainty can be expansionary when it reflects sector-specific dynamics rather than global demand uncertainty. Overall, our framework offers a novel way to disentangle "bad" and "good" commodity price uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices, uncertainty shocks, comovement, recessionary effects, positive macroeconomic impact |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05607366 |
| By: | Couto Ribeiro, Beatriz; Castillo, Adriana; Pérez Urdiales, María |
| Abstract: | Limited access to safe and proximate water remains a defining constraint in Haiti, where access to piped water remains limited and school enrollment is not universal. Using a pseudo-panel constructed from four rounds of the Haiti Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), we estimate the causal impact of water hauling time on childrens school enrollment. Our findings reveal a strong and statistically significant, each additional minute spent fetching water reduces the likelihood of enrollment by about 1.3 percentage points, with substantially larger effects in rural areas where hauling time is highest. Gender-specific estimates reveal that the burden of distance is not symmetric. While girls more often perform water collection overall, boys disproportionately undertake long-distance trips, and simulated enrollment probabilities indicate a widening gender gap once collection times exceed 3040 minutes, with boys experiencing steeper enrollment losses. These findings demonstrate how deficient water infrastructure depresses educational participation, underscoring the potential of investments in improved and more proximate water access to generate meaningful school enrollment gains. |
| Keywords: | water;Haiti;children;school enrollment;Education;demographic and health surveys |
| JEL: | Q25 H31 I24 C36 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14591 |
| By: | Ahmed, Musa Hasen; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Mesfin, Hiwot Mekonnen; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of drought shocks on unintended pregnancies across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results show that drought exposure increases the likelihood of unintended pregnancy by one to two percentage points (about 3 to 6 percent), depending on the specification. The analysis further finds that children born from unintended pregnancies are less likely to receive antenatal care, less likely to be delivered in health facilities, and more vulnerable to illness. The findings also show that unintended pregnancies have implications for women’s labor market outcomes. Overall, the findings indicate that drought shocks intensify women’s economic and reproductive vulnerabilities. Given the wide-ranging consequences of unintended births for both mothers and children, the results high-light the importance of integrating reproductive health interventions into climate adaptation policies. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11364 |
| By: | Bax, Karoline; Ćehajić, Aida |
| Abstract: | We examine whether banks incorporate firm-level biodiversity risk into their lending decisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans matched to firm-level biodiversity risk measures, we document that borrowers with higher biodiversity risk face significantly higher loan spreads. Evidence on loan volumes is weaker, suggesting that banks primarily adjust along the pricing margin rather than restricting credit supply. To capture biodiversity risk exposure, we develop a novel text-based indicator derived from corporate disclosures that incorporates the contextual content of environmental risk. To strengthen identification, we exploit firm-level environmental violations as shocks to environmental credibility. In a stacked difference-in-differences framework, we show that such violations increase the sensitivity of loan pricing to biodiversity risk. Overall, our findings provide evidence that biodiversity risk is a financially material dimension of environmental risk in credit markets. JEL Classification: G21, Q51, Q57 |
| Keywords: | bank-firm relationship, biodiversity risk, financial stability, syndicated loans, textual analysis |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263232 |