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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Nkhoma, Nomore; Chen, Xiaonan |
| Abstract: | Persistent food insecurity and low agricultural productivity continue to undermine rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa, where smallholder farmers face increasing climatic and market risks. Crop diversification has been promoted as a potential strategy to enhance resilience and improve welfare, yet rigorous causal evidence remains limited. This paper examines whether crop diversification enhances land productivity and household food security in Malawi, using nationally representative data and Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) to address model specification bias and high-dimensional confounding. Results show that diversification significantly increases land productivity, food consumption, and household dietary diversity, with the strongest impacts observed for dietary quality and food consumption. Mechanism analysis highlights market participation, access to credit, and the use of organic fertilizers as critical pathways through which diversification improves outcomes. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that benefits are most significant among rural, small-scale, and male-headed households. Robustness checks, including propensity score matching and sensitivity analysis, confirm the validity of the findings. Overall, the study demonstrates that crop diversification is not merely a risk-coping strategy but a transformative pathway toward productivity growth and food system resilience. By integrating causal inference with modern machine learning, this study advances empirical understanding and provides policy-relevant insights for promoting sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397882 |
| By: | Mittenzwei, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Dietary shifts are needed to improve public health and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but they may conflict with other ecosystem services provided by agriculture, such as landscape aesthetics and biodiversity. This paper identifies socially optimal diets and levels of ecosystem services from agriculture. Norway, which has highly ambitious policy goals in these areas, serves as a case study. We extend a partial equilibrium social welfare maximizing model of the Norwegian agricultural sector and include monetary health effects of dietary changes and ecosystem service provision in the model’s objective function. With mean estimates of health benefits, the optimal consumption of red and processed meat aligns closely with national guidelines and the EAT Lancet diet. Potential negative impacts of less red meat production on ecosystem services can be partially mitigated through changes in farm management and shifts in the production mix. However, socially optimal diets are highly sensitive to uncertainty in health benefit estimates. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397912 |
| By: | Ezebuihe, Jessy Amarachi; Parlasca, Martin |
| Abstract: | Many countries experienced record-high food inflation in recent years, which often has negative implications for food insecurity. Off-farm employment is a useful strategy to mitigate food insecurity; however, the role of off-farm employment in buffering against food insecurity triggered by food price shocks remains an important empirical question. This study investigates how food price shocks influence the relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity in Nigeria, which experienced particularly high inflation in 2024. Based on data from 3, 025 rural households collected in 2018/2019 and 2023/2024, we use panel fixed effects regression models and a control function approach. Our main finding suggests that an increase in food price significantly worsens food insecurity, and that there is a complex relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity. Furthermore, at high food prices, off-farm employment does not have any significant association with food insecurity. Exploring potential underlying mechanisms, we find that food purchase explains the relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity at high food prices. In addition, household food purchases and total household income further clarify the complex relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity. Our analyses suggest the need for external support to ensure food security for rural households amid rising food prices. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397903 |
| By: | Boy, Karl-Friedrich; Peña-Lévano, Luis; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe |
| Abstract: | Climate change and evolving regulations in the European Union (EU) place increasing pressure on agriculture to reduce its carbon footprint while remaining economically viable. The Farm-to-Fork strategy positions organic farming as a cornerstone of sustainable food systems, aiming for 25% of EU agricultural land to be organic by 2030. Yet, the economic feasibility of making this transition remains contested. This study provides a robust assessment on changes in farm profitability of transitioning from conventional to organic farming in Germany. Using a uniquely comprehensive large dataset of 1, 048, 139 farm-year observations from 54, 817 farms (between 1995 and 2018), we identify all converting farms and match them to structurally similar nonconverting “twin” farms. A difference-in-Differences framework adapted for staggered adoption and fixed effects estimates the impact of conversion on operating profit. Preliminary results indicate an average post-conversion increase of €11, 580 per year. Effects vary by region and farm type, underscoring heterogeneity in economic outcomes. These findings highlight the complexity of aligning environmental goals with farm-level incentives and demonstrate the value of long-run panel data for evidence-based policy. Further research will refine identification and explore distributional impacts to inform strategies under the EU Green Deal. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397883 |
| By: | Rieger, Joerg; Behrendt, Lena; Stepanyan, Davit; Thom, Ferike; Gocht, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This study employs the CAPRI model to assess the single and combined effects of sustainable dietary shifts and carbon pricing in Europe on the agriculture sector, the environment, and international trade by 2035. Adopting sustainable diets reduces animal-based production and lowers GHG emissions, while a carbon tax delivers greater overall emission reductions, mainly through the adoption of mitigation technologies, with 3-NOP feed additives showing the highest mitigation potential. Dietary shifts substantially affect trade flows, as reduced domestic demand for animal-based foods lowers production but increases exports, whereas higher consumption of plant-based foods drives up imports and reduces exports. In contrast, the carbon tax reduces EU competitiveness, lowering exports of emission-intensive products and increasing imports. Regarding economic impacts, sustainable diets slightly decrease EU agricultural income with highly heterogeneous effects across regions, while a carbon tax increases income by 2.8% due to higher producer prices. The combined scenario achieves the largest GHG reductions and highlights strong environmental complementarities. Our findings suggest that policymakers can develop targeted EU strategies that promote sustainable diets and the adoption of mitigation technologies to support EU climate goals and guide a transition toward more sustainable food systems. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397866 |
| By: | McVittie, Alistair; Glenk, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Soil natural capital underpins agricultural production and contributes to multiple ecosystem services providing both private and public benefits. The extent of provision of these services depends on an interaction of the properties of soil, its biophysical context, and the management of soils. Changing soil management to deliver multiple services may require additional policy support or participation in ecosystem service markets. A choice experiment assessed the degree of public support for improving different soil ecosystem services. We find public support for improving four soil ecosystem services: improved water quality through reducing nutrient and soil loss, reduced flood and drought risk through reduced runoff, increased soil carbon storage, and increased soil biodiversity. The estimated values were then applied to mapped soil properties data. The results demonstrated spatial patterns of soil ecosystem services benefits indicating where soil natural capital already provides benefits and where measures to improve soil management could be targeted. Relating the results to land capability for agriculture found that except for carbon storage, which was lower in better quality land, ecosystem services could be provided across capability classes suggesting that agricultural productivity and ecosystem services can be jointly provided. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397921 |
| By: | Nicholas Li (Department of Economics, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Canada); Angela Daley (Unaffiliated); Barry Watson (Department of Economics, Acadia University, Wolfville, Canada); Tracey Galloway (Department of Anthropology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada) |
| Abstract: | Remote communities in Northern Canada have persistently high rates of food insecurity due, in part, to incomes that are low relative to the high price of food and other goods. The Federal government mitigates food insecurity through income supports – ranging from national entitlements like child benefits to recent region-specific measures like the Inuit Child First Initiative (ICFI) – and through the Nutrition North Canada (NNC) retail subsidy that is intended to lower prices for select foods shipped to remote communities. Using administrative and household survey data, in addition to exogenous variation from recent enhancements to child benefits and retail subsidies, we provide the first systematic quantitative evaluation and comparison of these programs regarding their per dollar impacts on nutritious food shipments and food insecurity, along with an analysis of their distributional effects. Our analysis highlights an important policy trade-off, as current NNC food subsidies are more effective at increasing nutritious food shipments and reducing marginal food insecurity, but child benefits – including both means tested benefits and universal benefits like the ICFI Hamlet Food Voucher Program – are much more progressive and effective at reducing severe child food insecurity. |
| Keywords: | Prices; Incomes; Subsidies; Child benefits; Nutrition; Food insecurity |
| JEL: | I18 J15 D42 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rye:wpaper:wp101 |
| By: | Tablang, Solomon; Bitonio, Josefina; TOLEDO, RALPH RENDELL (Government Procurement Policy Board-Technical Support Office) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural cooperatives are widely recognized as important institutional actors in advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in agrarian and rural economies. This study examines the initiatives, services, and constraints of agricultural cooperatives in relation to the SDGs in Region I of the Philippines. A mixed-methods design was used, combining a structured survey of officers from 30 medium and large agricultural cooperatives with selected semi-structured interviews to provide context for the quantitative findings. Descriptive statistics were employed to summarize cooperative profiles, services, and SDG-aligned practices, while cross-tabulations were used to examine differences in governance, climate- and resource-related, and market challenges by cooperative size. The findings show that most cooperatives are medium-sized and long-established, with lean staffing structures and moderate asset bases. Core services remain concentrated on credit provision and commodity distribution, while higher-value activities such as processing and mechanization are less common. Cooperatives implement a wide range of initiatives aligned with multiple SDGs, with the strongest engagement observed in poverty reduction, food security, decent work, and partnerships. These contributions, however, are constrained by persistent challenges related to governance, limited access to finance, market competition, and environmental and climate risks. Medium-sized cooperatives report greater vulnerabilities in governance, environmental pressures, and market access than larger cooperatives, which, despite greater resilience, face more pronounced bureaucratic constraints. Overall, the results point to the need for profile-sensitive interventions that strengthen governance, expand access to finance and markets, and improve the integration of environmental sustainability into cooperative operations. Addressing these areas can enhance the capacity of agricultural cooperatives to contribute more effectively to inclusive and sustainable rural development and to the achievement of the SDGs. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6cd87_v1 |
| By: | Owusu-Sekyere, Enoch; Lindberg, Mikaela; Hansson, Helena |
| Abstract: | European dairy farmers face biological, climatic, and socioeconomic shocks that heighten vulnerability, underscoring the importance of understanding how risks are perceived across domains. While most studies focus on single risk types, this study analyses perceived risk among 399 specialised Swedish dairy farmers across climatic, socioeconomic, and biological domains, examining variation across regions, production systems, and the distribution of vulnerability. Using unconditional quantile regression, we estimate how farm, farmer, institutional, and informational characteristics shift the unconditional distribution of perceived risk. Results show that socioeconomic and biological risks are perceived as more prominent than climatic risks overall, although climate shocks are viewed as particularly damaging when they occur. Strong heterogeneity emerges across the risk distribution: most covariates are insignificant at the median but exert substantial effects at the upper tail, indicating structurally distinct high-risk farmers. Cooperative membership consistently reduces perceived risk across domains, while organic and mixed systems increase socioeconomic and overall risk, particularly among the most vulnerable farmers. Information provision and training often raise perceived risk, suggesting awareness effects not necessarily matched by effective risk reduction. Regional patterns vary across domains. These findings highlight that risk perceptions are multidimensional and unevenly distributed, implying that policies should prioritise high-risk farmers, tailor interventions to production systems, strengthen collective institutions, and combine information with actionable risk-management strategies. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397915 |
| By: | Biagini, Luigi |
| Abstract: | Producer Organisations (POs) are a central instrument of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), designed to strengthen farmers’ collective action, improve their market position and promote sustainable agricultural practices. Despite their long-standing policy relevance, evidence on whether PO membership yields measurable benefits at the individual farm level remains limited and inconclusive, particularly in the European context. This paper assesses the causal impact of PO membership on farm performance in the Italian fruit and vegetable (F&V) sector, where the PO model is most established and widespread. Using microdata from the Italian Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) covering the period 2014-2022, the study applies a Double Debiased Machine Learning (DDML) estimator to evaluate the effects of PO participation across multiple performance dimensions aligned with the objectives of Article 46 of Regulation (EU) 2021/2115. These dimensions include economic competitiveness, efficiency, financial structure, commercial and qualitative performance, environmental sustainability, risk management, and labour composition. Results reveal a nuanced and heterogeneous pattern across production systems. For permanent crop farms, PO membership is associated with improvements in output valorisation, quality-certified production, direct sales, investment intensity, and environmental indicators, alongside lower profitability margins and reduced asset turnover, suggesting a trade-off between quality upgrading and short-term cost efficiency. In contrast, for horticultural farms, the effects are more limited and often statistically insignificant. Overall, these contrasting patterns underline the importance of accounting for heterogeneity between production systems when evaluating the economic impacts of PO membership and suggest that policy interventions should be tailored accordingly. The study contributes to the literature in two main ways. First, it provides the first comprehensive multidimensional causal evaluation of PO membership effects in a major EU F&V producing country, explicitly comparing different production systems. Second, it demonstrates the value of the DDML approach for agricultural impact assessment, showing how high-dimensional causal methods can uncover complex and sometimes conflicting effects of collective action on farm performance. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397880 |
| By: | Cronauer, Carla; Weituschat, Sophia; Murken, Lisa; Randrianarison, Henintsoa; Waid, Jillian; Gornott, Christoph |
| Abstract: | Soil degradation poses a severe threat to smallholder farmers' livelihoods in Madagascar, yet farmers' own perceptions of the processes affecting soil quality remain poorly understood. This study analyzes the mental models of 1, 007 smallholder farmers in south-eastern Madagascar, examining how environmental and socio-economic characteristics shape their understanding of soil quality processes. As a second objective we examine whether mental model elicitation influences agronomic knowledge and adoption intentions. Using a representative survey with randomized assignment to the mental model elicitation task, we find that Malagasy smallholder farmers hold moderately complex mental models, most often drawing direct connections between drivers and soil quality. Manure, rainfall, and heat are the most frequently included drivers, with manure perceived as most beneficial for soil quality. Education emerges as the strongest predictor of mental model complexity, with complexity increasing progressively across education levels. Sex, age, and local climatic conditions also shape both complexity and the inclusion of specific drivers. Mental model elicitation did not meaningfully improve agronomic knowledge test scores, but was positively associated with intentions to adopt manure application. These findings underscore the value of farmers' systems thinking and highlight the importance of accounting for socio-demographic and environmental heterogeneity when seeking to understand local agricultural knowledge systems. They further suggest that structured mental model elicitation holds potential as a tool for targeted agricultural extension, particularly for practices that are already salient in farmers' mental models and positively perceived. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397896 |
| By: | Rompani, Hugo; Dogbe, Wisdom; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar |
| Abstract: | To achieve its ambitious climate targets, it is likely that Scotland will have to shift the food consumption of households away from animal proteins. This paper analysed the effectiveness of taxes and subsidies on animal and plant proteins in improving the environmental sustainability of protein consumption in Scotland. It was found that taxes on animal proteins alone struggle to shift consumption towards plant proteins. However, plant protein subsidies achieved dietary shifts toward plant protein categories. The study also highlighted that a blanket tax on all animal proteins, while most effective in reducing total environmental impact of protein consumption, could result in significant negative nutritional and distributional outcomes; thereby reducing the tax’s viability as a policy option. The study concludes that a combination of select taxes and subsidies, along with a mix of alternative policy options, are best suited to shifting Scottish diets in a more environmentally and socially sustainable direction – however, to achieve the Climate Change Committee’s dietary recommendations a mixture of policy levers will likely be required. The study used 2021 home scan data from Kantar Worldpanel and the Exact Affine Stone Index demand system to estimate Marshallian elasticities for protein categories in Scotland. These were used to simulate a range of ad valorem fiscal policy scenarios, which were then evaluated for their impact on greenhouse gas emissions, land use, nutritional intake and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397887 |
| By: | Brot, Robert; Curzi, Daniele; Palma, Alessandro; Russo, Simone; Pallante, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | The increasing intensity of extreme weather events poses a major challenge to agriculture by undermining crops growth conditions. This is particularly critical for wine production, where the quality of wine strongly depends on crops’ life cycle. Such changes create significant difficulties for wine farms, especially those operating under Geographical Indication (GI), which, as a matter of fact, imposes restrictions on the farms’ productivity. Against this background, the existing literature has overlooked the extent to which the limits imposed by these policies affect farms’ adaptation capacities to extreme weather events. The objective of this study is to empirically analyse the effect of extreme weather events on farm-level productivity, focusing especially on PDO wine farms in Italy. Preliminary results, capturing the short-term effect, indicate the higher crop’s losses for PDO vineyards. These findings serve as a pivot point for further reflection on long-term impacts, measuring the adaptation capacity among PDO wine farms. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397888 |
| By: | Mgomezulu, Wisdom Richard; Thangata, Paul; Maonga, Beston B.; Chitete, Moses |
| Abstract: | Orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) is often overshadowed by globally traded cereals, yet comprehensive evidence now positions it as a strategic climate-nutrition asset. We synthesized 618 farm-gate life-cycle observations around the globe to evaluate the environmental consequences of replacing conventional staples with OFSP. Seemingly Unrelated Regression disentangled correlated production decisions and revealed that, per kilogram of edible output, OFSP reduces greenhouse-gas emissions by 28%, blue-water withdrawals by 37%, and land occupation by 31%, even after controlling for fertilizer use, irrigation status, climate zone, and regional effects. Thus, shifting to OFSP would tremendously shrink agriculture’s carbon footprint and turbo-charging vitamin A intake in nutrient-insecure communities. Yet the narrative is not one of blind substitution. First, we note that despite OFSP supplying up to 100% of a child’s daily vitamin A in a 125g serving, its protein density is way lower than that of wheat or maize, imposing implications on amino-acid intake unless legumes or animal sources rise concurrently. Second, we note perishability bottlenecks to feed-grain deficits and test policy levers that turn risks into innovation opportunities. Consequently, crop diversification rather than monoculture substitution emerges as the most holistic pathway in leveraging OFSP’s micronutrient edge while retaining cereal protein. By reframing roots and tubers as front-line actors in sustainable food systems, this research invites policymakers, investors, and farmers to harvest a new synthesis involving resilient livelihoods, healthier plates, and a lighter environmental load, all sprouting from a single, orange root. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397908 |
| By: | McCormack, Maureen |
| Abstract: | Irish livestock systems are characterised by a predominantly grass-based production model, where cows spend the majority of the year grazing outdoors. Effective grassland management is therefore fundamental to the success of Irish livestock farming. Central to this is the strategic application of fertiliser, both chemical and organic, to ensure an adequate supply of grass throughout the grazing season and for the production of grass silage for the housing period. Nonetheless, excessive use of nitrogen (N) fertilisers poses environmental risks, with high N surpluses causing potential runoff into watercourses, thereby compromising water quality. A key metric in assessing the sustainability of livestock systems, where N inputs often exceed outputs, is Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). In this paper, the NUE trends on Irish dairy farms from 2013 to 2023 was investigated, analysing Farm Accountancy Network data (FADN) to identify key determinants of NUE on grass based systems. The analysis shows that reducing total N inputs is the most important driver, but that farm size reducing the N content in concentrate feed and innovations such as Low Emission Slurry Spreading (LESS) and the use of protected urea are also important drivers of NUE at farm level. Notably, the interaction between soil productivity and nitrogen inputs indicates that more productive soils support significantly higher NUE at comparable input levels, suggesting a greater capacity to convert nitrogen inputs into output on better land. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397884 |
| By: | Begho, Toritseju; Asmare, Fissha; Glenk, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Farmers face a range of structural, environmental and market adjustments that require continual adaptation in management practices and decision-making. Understanding how farmers respond to change is central to promoting adaptability and resilience in agriculture. This study examines Scottish farmers’ dispositional orientation toward change using data from a Farmer Intentions (FIS) 2023 survey. Thirteen Likert-scale statements, adapted from Oreg’s (2003) Resistance to Change (RTC) framework, were used to elicit farmers’ orientation toward change. The Likert-scale items were used to construct a composite behavioural change-cautious orientation (CCO) index following psychometric validation where a higher value indicate a stronger change-cautious orientation, whereas lower values reflect greater openness to change. The index was analysed using ANOVA and regression methods to examine demographic, social and perceptual determinants of behavioural orientation, and to assess how openness to change influences farmers’ future investment and environmental intentions. Two underlying dimensions were identified, namely, aversion to disruption in daily practices, and openness to embrace behavioural and managerial change. CCO varied with farmer type, group membership, age and percentage of household income that comes from the farm business. Business-oriented and group-affiliated farmers exhibited a weaker CCO, whereas crofters, hobbyists, smallholders, and especially the oldest farmers showed a stronger CCO. Farmers with a weaker CCO were significantly more likely to plan increased investment and participation in agri-environmental activities. Farmers with weaker CCO are also more likely to adopt sustainable agricultural practices. These results indicate that openness to change among Scottish farmers is structured by type, farmer group-affiliation and experience. Differentiated engagement strategies are needed to strengthen farmers’ orientation toward change. Therefore, policies that combine business-focused advisory support with network-based learning for different farmers’ enterprise type can help reduce behavioural inertia and encourage forward-looking investment and environmental action. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397869 |
| By: | Seifert, Stefan; Low, Guy; Kodama, Wataru; Britz, Wolfgang; Heckelei, Thomas; Hüttel, Silke |
| Abstract: | Climate change impacts farms’ risk profiles and farms’ expected returns; yet farms seem to be reluctant to invest into adaption measures. Previous literature suggests that delayed adaptation is due to the real option nature of such investments: irreversibility, flexibility in timing, and (economic) uncertainty. We test these theoretical considerations by empirically examining irrigation uptake among Danish farms. We consider production inefficiency, market and weather risk, and experienced climate extremes as determinants of irrigation adoption behavior. Our analysis uses a panel of 1, 104 farm-level observations from the FADN for 2007–2020 combined with weather, climate and price data. We model farms’ persistent inefficiency using a 4-component stochastic frontier; a panel logit quantifying the effects of inefficiency, climate extremes, and price and weather volatility on adoption. Our results align with predictions from real options theory: higher market uncertainty lowers adoption rates, whereas exposure to extreme drought increases the probability of investing. Results also suggest that crop-market signals matter, suggested by higher adoption rates under greater potato price volatility, indicating anticipatory investment when upside price risk is salient. We find that higher farm-level efficiency is associated with a lower propensity to invest, pointing either to substitution toward other risk-management or yield-enhancing strategies, or to less binding water constraints on already efficient farms. Our current results therefore suggest that additional policy initiatives may be required to foster adaptation levels adequate for expected climate change development. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397875 |
| By: | Ngarava, Saul; Magnone, Daniel; Gould, Iain; Ruto, Eric |
| Abstract: | Flood-induced salinisation poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity and economic stability, particularly in flood-prone regions like Greater Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, where agriculture contributes substantially to the local economy. This study assesses the impacts of salinisation on crop production value and its cascading effects on the broader economy, employing spatial econometric models, propensity score matching (PSM), regression analysis, and Leontief input-output frameworks. Focusing on key crops such as winter/spring wheat/barley, beet, oilseed, and potato, the study integrates spatial data on crop distribution, land quality, and flood zones to model salinity effects. Results reveal strong spatial spillovers, with land quality and crop area as dominant predictors of value losses, while salinity's direct impact is minimal, suggesting effective adaptations or confounding factors. PSM ensures robust causal inference, showing excellent covariate balance for most crops, though potato exhibits some imbalances. Economy-wide analysis indicates total losses exceeding £253 million for the chosen crops, with £124 million for winter wheat alone, with ripple effects through supply chains, including wholesale trade and fertilizer sectors. Sensitivity simulations highlight systemic vulnerabilities to shock magnitudes. The findings underscore the need for spatially targeted policies, such as enhanced drainage and salt-tolerant crop promotion, to mitigate clustered risks and ensure food resilience. Future research should incorporate dynamic models and comparative studies to address methodological limitations and enhance predictive accuracy. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397913 |
| By: | Haldar, Surajit |
| Abstract: | Groundnut cultivation in Odisha has steadily declined, challenging rural livelihoods and oilseed sustainability. This study explores how farmers make sequential acreage decisions—first whether to grow groundnut, then how much land to allocate—under uncertainty shaped by climate variability, seed market failures, and price instability. Using survey data from 906 households across inland and coastal districts, a double-hurdle model separates participation drivers from acreage intensity factors. Irrigation access, improved seed availability, and household labour significantly raise the probability of allocating at least 10% of cropped area to groundnut, while high seed prices and poor-quality supply deter experienced inland farmers. Soil suitability strongly influences coastal participation. To capture macro-level dynamics, ARMAX models using 2000–2022 data assess rainfall effects on state-level groundnut area. Rainfall consistently shows a positive and significant impact, though high persistence and structural rigidities indicate systemic constraints beyond climate. By integrating household and time-series evidence, the study demonstrates how climate, seed systems, and market conditions jointly shape acreage decisions and identifies region-specific interventions to stabilise groundnut cultivation in Odisha. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397910 |
| By: | Molina, Paula Palma |
| Abstract: | The New Delivery Model of the current EU CAP reform (2023-2027) brought associated challenges for Member States (MS) in terms of monitoring and evaluation. One of the main challenges is the need to report the effectiveness of the interventions (assessing performance towards objectives) included in their national CAP Strategic Plans (CSPs). To support Ireland’s Department of Agriculture Food and the Marine (DAFM) in addressing the new CSP reporting requirements, this study aims to implement an ex-post evaluation framework that includes a logic model of the direct payment (DP) interventions included in Ireland’s CSP and a set of additional indicators for their monitoring and evaluation based on existing farm-level data from the Teagasc National Farm Survey. The logic model identified the increase or stabilisation of agricultural income, the improvement of income distribution, the enhancement of agricultural sector competitiveness, and the reduction of income disparities, among other outcomes, as common expected results from the implementation of DP interventions. These outcomes are directly related to CAP specific objective 1 (secure viable farm incomes), CAP specific objective 2 (enhance attractiveness and competitiveness of the agri-food sector), CAP specific objective 6 (generational renewal of farmers), and CAP specific objective 6 (biodiversity conservation). Indicators were proposed for some of these expected outcomes, although data was still lacking to allow the estimation of indicators related to themes such as competitiveness and generational renewal. The implemented framework provides a template with the potential for application in the ex-post evaluation of other interventions included in the CSP, as well as in other policy areas and policy making cycles, including the planning, monitoring and evaluation of the European Commission’s proposed National and Regional Partnership Plans (NRPPs) for the CAP 2028-2034 programming period. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397865 |
| By: | Mgomezulu, Wisdom Richard; Phiri, Mthakati Alexander R.; Muthini, Davis; Thangata, Paul |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity remains an issue of great concern in Malawi. As such, the Government of Malawi through the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) and the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) introduced the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) in 1979 to be able to store grain that can be used in responding to vulnerable households, during food shortages amidst climate change concerns. However, past estimations of how much grain the SGR is supposed to hold employed static models that did not consider the dynamic nature of food requirements presented by climate change and volatile food prices, let alone the duo objectives of achieving food security whilst minimizing storage costs. Through understanding the dynamic and evolving goals of the country, the current study employed dynamic optimization algorithms using GEKKO and Numpy libraries in Python. In terms of how much grain the SGR is supposed to hold, the study found that the optimal stocks to be held for 3 months with another 3 months lead time to mobilize grains under public-private-partnership capacity is 316, 350 MT to effectively offset any historical shortfalls in supply, 674, 178MT for the emergency reserve and 191, 267.9 MT as buffer stocks. Nonetheless, the country’s physical storage space is not adequate and too costly to hold such a quantity of grain. The study therefore advises using futures contracts and virtual stock programs, such as grain banks, to ensure a swift and effective response in emergencies. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397879 |
| By: | Pavel Kiparisov; Christian Folberth |
| Abstract: | Global food security depends on tightly coupled international supply chains including natural gas, mineral fertilizers, and staple crops. Earlier research has examined potential consequences of disruptions in each of these domains separately but not from a systemic perspective. Here we integrate bilateral trade in natural gas, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, and eleven staple crops accounting for approximately 70% of plant-based calories into a cascading-impact model spanning 208 countries, 20 geopolitical blocs, and the period 1992-2023. Under complete trade isolation, up to 22% of global caloric consumption would be lost, with a peak in the most recent evaluated years. Structural vulnerabilities vary greatly. Regions largely lacking some parts of the supply chain face near-total crop supply collapse, while few countries can cover the whole nexus through domestic resource endowments and production capacities. Temporal trends highlight a substantial increase in vulnerability globally, most prominently in the EU with a near two-fold increase since the 1990s. Market power is most concentrated and most volatile in the upstream gas and mineral-fertilizer layers, from which shocks propagate downstream. Food stocks provide only limited resilience with half of humanity living in countries disposing of stock lasting less than three months. Our results identify the upstream supply chains as the structural bottlenecks of the global agrifood system and propose leverage points to enhance resilience. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.06411 |
| By: | Devaki Ghose; Eduardo Fraga; Ana Margarida Fernandes |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages Sri Lanka's 2021 chemical fertilizer import ban to quantify the costs of restricted fertilizer access for agriculture, trade, and welfare. Leveraging trade and production data, satellite-based yield estimates, and event studies, we document sharp declines in fertilizer imports, agricultural output, and exports. A quantitative spatial model of trade and agriculture estimates the ban's average welfare cost at 7.3%, with farmers, estate workers, and fertilizer-intensive regions bearing disproportionate losses. Model-implied partial-equilibrium elasticities line up with the experimental evidence, but once we account for general-equilibrium price and wage adjustments, the elasticities are much smaller—implying that using partial equilibrium estimates to assess large, economy-wide fertilizer shocks (like those seen during recent conflicts) would substantially overstate their effects. Domestic and trade policy interact: by curtailing fertilizer use, the import ban effectively contracted the country's fertilizer subsidy program and its implicit transfers from mobile workers to farmers, thereby mitigating the former's welfare losses. |
| Keywords: | trade, industrial policy, import ban, non-tariff measures, fertilizer, and agriculture |
| JEL: | D58 F13 F14 O13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12623 |
| By: | Epifanio, Daniele,; Ernst, Christoph, |
| Abstract: | Africa faces a dual challenge of persistent un and under- and informal employment—especially among youth and women—and environmental degradation exacerbated by poor waste management. Tailored organic waste management can represent a strong solution to promote both decent work and environmental sustainability. This paper explores how appropriate technologies for managing organic waste can contribute to employment creation and a Just Transition in agrifood systems, particularly in rural and urban settings. The research integrates a desk review with key informant interviews. Identified examples lead to the conclusion that waste-to-agrifood technologies exist along a continuum, ranging from farm-enhancing practices that improve soil health and reduce input costs to income-generating activities that create market opportunities and employment. Composting, biochar production, and black soldier fly farming, among others, illustrate how organic waste can be repurposed into fertilisers, animal feed, and bioenergy, addressing environmental and economic challenges. At smaller scales, they provide direct benefits to smallholder farmers and decentralised communities, while at commercial levels, they create job opportunities downstream and upstream the value chains, from waste collection and processing to specialized roles in biotechnology or logistics. To unlock their full potential in strengthening agrifood systems, creating green jobs, and advancing sustainable development in Africa, competencies development, investments in infrastructure, financial access, as well as social dialogue are essential. An appropriate technology approach could make organic waste solutions more accessible and adaptable to local contexts. |
| Keywords: | waste recycling, technologies, circular economy, employment creation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995681072802676 |
| By: | Adam, Nasir |
| Abstract: | This study examines farmers’ preferences for fossil-based and fossil-free mineral nitrogen fertilisers as part of efforts to decarbonisation agricultural inputs, using a labelled discrete choice experiment among 211 Swedish crop, dairy and mixed farmers. Fertiliser alternatives are characterised by three attributes: price, climate impact, and production origin. Preferences are analysed using a mixed logit model to capture continuous heterogeneity and a latent class choice model to identify discrete farmer segments. Results show that higher fertiliser prices reduce choice probabilities, while farmers exhibit substantial willingness to pay for fertilisers produced in European Union, United Kingdom and Norway and, in particular, in Sweden (their domestic market). Farmers continue to choose conventional mineral fertiliser over the opt-out alternative even when its climate impact increases. This indicates the central role of mineral nitrogen fertiliser in crop production rather than a preference for higher emissions. Two distinct farmer segments emerge: a larger group that trades off price with production origin and climate attributes, and a smaller group that is primarily price sensitive. In addition, social and economic identities significantly explain membership in the dominant segment, whereas environmental identity plays a more limited role. The findings reveal that farmers trade off price against production origin rather than climate impact: they are willing to pay substantial premiums for supply-security consideration (Swedish fertilisers), but not for reduced climate impact alone. The results suggest that decarbonisation policies in fertiliser markets may be more politically and economically viable when embedded within broader supply-security and preparedness frameworks rather than framed solely as climate premiums. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397891 |
| By: | Baumert, Josef; Heckelei, Thomas; Estes, Lyndon; Storm, Hugo |
| Abstract: | Spatially explicit information on farmers’ crop choice and how it is impacted by changing environmental or economic conditions is essential to foster food security and predict future crop production. While such knowledge could be particularly beneficial in world regions with large rural populations and high climate risk, data scarcity often impedes crop production mapping and modelling. We present a novel approach that links environmental data, satellite imagery, and regional statistics using economic modelling and generative AI for high-resolution crop choice mapping and modelling without labelled observations. The approach builds on two components: first, we employ a reduced-form model based on economic theory to express the cultivation probability of a crop at a specific location as a function of environmental and potentially economic conditions. Second, we use k-Deep Variational Autoencoders, a class of generative neural networks, to cluster pixels with similar appearance on satellite imagery into groups that can be associated to crop types. By linking both components and jointly estimating all model parameters, the economic model provides prior knowledge to the clustering approach while benefiting from the information entailed in the remote sensing imagery. Validation for France indicates high overall accuracies of the obtained crop maps. We additionally apply the approach to northern Ghana and simulate how an increase in in-season droughts would impact the spatial distribution of major food crops, information crucial for food security policies. Our method is applicable to numerous world regions. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397894 |
| By: | Latka, Catharina; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Heckelei, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Many consumers in high-income countries do not adhere to dietary guidelines. This imposes a threat to their health and to the environment as some of the excessively consumed foods also have high emission footprints. Food price changes (e.g. enforced through taxes) are a promising lever to steer consumers toward a recommended diet. However, a country-level pricing policy fails to only target those consumers that do not follow dietary recommendations but affect all consumers. Here, we estimate individual household-specific demand systems using a locally-weighted approach to capture differences in the preference structure and price sensitivity of consumers. We compare these to a pooled estimation and assess elasticity differences and implications for meat tax simulations. Tax-induced meat consumption reductions, embedded greenhouse gas emission savings and the level of adherence to dietary recommendations are compared at the national level and for consumer groups defined based on their baseline meat intake. Our findings stress that without considering heterogeneity in price responsiveness, we tend to over-estimate benefits from pricing policies. Consumers eating more meat than recommended are less responsive to price changes, but would still contribute most to emission savings and show the largest absolute dietary improvements. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397876 |
| By: | Zhang, Yumei; Wang, Jingjing; Ruizeng, Zhang; Sun, Tiantian; Fan, Shenggen |
| Abstract: | Global agrifood systems must undergo a low-carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China’s agrifood emission will continue to rise, jeopardizing its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed-methods approach combining narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterize China's agrifood system emissions across the entire value chain, (2) project carbon emissions reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple scenarios, and (3) provide lessons for other developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, emissions are projected to rise slowly to 1.8 billion tons of CO₂eq by 2060 from 1.6 billion tons in 2021, driven primarily by the expansion of livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modeling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvement, adoption of low-carbon technologies, reducing food loss and waste, production structure adjustment and low-carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% by 2060 relative to the baseline, while enhancing the carbon sequestration potential to 1.8 billion tons CO₂eq annually. The latter will not only neutralize the emissions from agrifood system but also contribute to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system-wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low-carbon transitions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397899 |
| By: | Curzi, Daniele; Fiankorb, Dela-Dem Doe; Solazzo, Roberto; Valenti, Daniele |
| Abstract: | We study how global wheat market shocks transmit to export prices of pasta and related wheat based products. We first estimate a Bayesian structural vector autoregression for the world wheat market using annual data from 1970 to 2022 on production, inventories, real wheat prices, and global economic activity. The model yields structural shocks that capture unexpected shifts in wheat supply, global activity, consumption demand, and inventory demand. We then link these shocks to Italian customs microdata on export unit values by firm, product, and destination from 2004 to 2022, controlling for firm, product, destination, and market conditions. We find economically meaningful pass through from global wheat price movements driven by demand and inventory forces, while supply shocks have weaker and slower effects. Price responses are asymmetric, with larger adjustments following positive shocks than negative shocks. Heterogeneity analyses suggest smaller pass through for firms that import wheat directly, consistent with input sourcing and risk management dampening exposure. The results highlight the role of global commodity shocks in food price formation and the importance of firm level strategies in buffering international price volatility. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397895 |
| By: | Rathnayaka, Shashika D.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Chalmers, Neil; de Roos, Baukje |
| Abstract: | Understanding UK consumer responses to meat prices is critical for health, environmental, and fiscal policy. While red and processed meat consumption remains above recommended levels for some consumers, contributing to cardiovascular disease & colorectal cancer risk, and greenhouse gas emissions, most empirical studies treat red meat as a single aggregate category, masking important heterogeneity in beef purchasing patterns. Using the data from Kantar Worldpanel data for 2013–2022, this study estimates expenditure and price elasticities for a disaggregated set of beef products, alongside lamb, pork, poultry, fish, and other meat products. A dynamic two-stage error-corrected LA/AIDS model was applied to capture gradual adjustment and long-run equilibrium relationships. Results reveal substantial heterogeneity in own- and cross-price elasticities across beef products, with pronounced vertical differentiation within beef, and complex substitution and complementarity patterns across meat groups, that are obscured in aggregate models. Short-run elasticities are often smaller in magnitude than long-run elasticities, reflecting consumption inertia and gradual adjustment. Statistically significant error-correction terms confirm stable long-run relationships across both aggregate and disaggregated systems. These findings provide robust evidence to inform targeted fiscal and pricing policies aimed at promoting healthier and more sustainable dietary transitions. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397919 |
| By: | Leppert, Daniel; Aftab, Ashar; Scarpa, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | Agriculture can contribute to catchment flooding via land use change. The viability of natural flood management (NFM) projects differs substantially between farms, which motivates research into spatially targeted NFM schemes. This paper proposes a hypothetical market in NFM contracts with exchange rates (‘trading ratios’) that incentivise farmers to voluntarily reallocate NFM contracts to farms where the land is most suitable for NFM. Voluntary trading is theorised to alleviate concerns expressed by farmers about unfairness with targeted payments for flood management. This is the first cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical market in NFM. The cost is estimated through a discrete choice experiment with a representative sample of English farmers. The effectiveness of NFM is simulated using a hydrological connectivity computer model. Results show that trading can represent significant annual cost saving per farm across simulated schemes. A higher transaction cost reduces the cost savings achievable from trading, although even at 10% of the payment, trading reduces the overall cost by no less than £10, 000 annually. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397877 |
| By: | Tanaka, Tetsuji; Guo, Jin; Sun, Laixiang; Song, Xiao-Peng |
| Abstract: | Climate-induced yield variability and a global soybean import-to-production ratio exceeding 40% have rendered international food markets increasingly vulnerable to regional supply shocks. Here we evaluate a "global hedging mechanism" that leverages remote sensing (RS) technology to exploit the seasonal production asymmetries between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. By integrating early-season forecasts from the Southern Hemisphere into the planting decisions of Northern Hemisphere farmers, this information-based coordination allows for ex ante production adjustments that stabilize global supply and prices. Using counterfactual simulations and risk-premium measures derived from expected utility and prospect theories, we demonstrate that the utilization of RS information reduces import price volatility across all eight sampled countries, with significant declines of 10.0% in Hungary and 9.3% in Iran. While conventional expected utility models estimate global annual welfare benefits up to USD 954 million , our behavioral analysis accounting for loss aversion through prospect theory reveals that benefits could reach approximately USD 15.5 billion. These results underscore the disproportionate impact of price spikes on welfare in vulnerable, import dependent economies. Our findings suggest that RS-based forecasting functions as a global public good, providing a cost-effective, market-compatible safety net. Investing in international RS infrastructure and integrating transparent information into food policy are essential steps for enhancing the resilience of the global agricultural value chain against future climatic crises. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397872 |
| By: | Iovleva, Ekaterina; Stepanyan, Davit; Gocht, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Nutrient pollution in EU agriculture is highly uneven, with the strongest pressures concentrated in regions with intensive livestock production and high nitrogen (N) inputs. This discussion paper evaluates the environmental and economic effects of a spatially targeted N-surplus tax using the CAPRI partial equilibrium model for 2035. First, a multi-indicator framework is applied to identify agricultural pollution hotspots at NUTS2 level. Based on gross N surplus, total N input, mineral fertiliser input, nutrient use efficiency, and livestock density, 35 hotspot regions are selected across the EU. Second, four tax scenarios are simulated, ranging from €250 to €1000 per tonne of N surplus, applied only in the identified hotspot regions. The results show that the targeted tax reduces total EU N surplus by 5.0% to 6.8% and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 10.4 to 13.6 Mt CO2eq relative to the baseline. The strongest responses are observed in Belgian, Dutch, and other intensive production regions. Adjustment mechanisms differ across regions, but mainly include lower mineral fertiliser use, lower livestock density, and, at higher tax levels, greater uptake of mitigation technologies. Production effects at EU level remain moderate, while some redistribution of N pressure occurs towards non-targeted regions. Of the 35 initially identified hotspot regions, a maximum of 4 were removed from hotspot status under the simulated policy scenarios, while no new hotspots were created. The findings suggest that a targeted N-surplus tax can be an effective instrument for reducing nitrogen pressure in hotspot regions, but additional policy measures will likely be needed to deliver a broader and more durable solution. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397904 |
| By: | Loughrey, Jason |
| Abstract: | The agricultural sector in Ireland is facing increasing societal pressures for improvements in environmental sustainability with emission targets based on progress from 2018 to 2030. In this context, the relationship between the farm income distribution and the distribution of emissions is underexplored. The Kakwani index is applied to compare the distribution of farm income and the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland between 2018 and 2023. Concentration indices are used to measure inequality in emissions over the distribution of farm income. Data are based on the Teagasc National Farm Survey. Results show that farm income is more unequally distributed than greenhouse gas emissions. Concentration index curves show that low-income farms are accounting for a declining proportion of GHG emissions. For the dairy farming system, in particular, policy efforts need to continue to pursue widespread adoption of environmental technologies for the entire population of farms. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397917 |
| By: | Nejadrezaei, Nima; Balaine, Lorraine; Buckley, Cathal; Chiabrando, Andrea; Regueiro, Leticia; Mohammadrezaei, Mohammad; Baratta, Selene; Argiz, Lucia |
| Abstract: | Livestock farming plays a key role in European agriculture but is increasingly associated with environmental challenges. Effective manure management is essential to mitigate these impacts, yet the adoption of improved technologies and practices remains slow. Farmers’ decisions are shaped by technical, economic, and behavioural factors, and positive attitudes do not always translate into implementation, making adoption a complex process. This study, part of the Horizon Europe NUTRITIVE project, examines these dynamics in Ireland, Italy, and Spain using a mixed-method approach. Semi-structured interviews and a Delphi study with diverse stakeholders were conducted to identify key technologies, practices, and barriers. Insights from these phases, together with a scoping literature review, will inform focus groups and the development of a survey research conceptual framework. The quantitative phase will involve a farmer survey and advanced modelling techniques to analyse adoption patterns and cross-country differences. The expected outcomes will help bridge the gap between attitudes and actual uptake, guiding interventions and policy strategies to promote sustainable manure management across the EU. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397889 |
| By: | Zavalloni, Matteo; Hanley, Nick; Simpson, Katherine |
| Abstract: | Despite significant policy interventions and conservation initiatives, incentives for the conservation of biodiversity have been criticized for being ecologically ineffective and economically inefficient. This paper examines a novel approach to improve the ecological and economic performance of such incentives. Specifically, we analyse the ecological and economic effectiveness of a targeting bonus which establishes a two-part subsidy for changes to land management when the ecological benefits of such changes vary spatially. Using a spatially explicit mathematical programming model applied to an empirical case study in the UK, we show that a targeting bonus has the potential to enhance efficiency, with the magnitude of gains depending on the strength and sign of the spatial correlation between opportunity costs and ecological benefits, as well as the size of the budget and the definition of the targeting zone. We find that the targeting bonus offers major advantages when the most ecologically beneficial land parcels are positively correlated with highest opportunity costs for farmers; and that the additional benefits of the targeting bonus relative to a no-bonus subsidy scheme eventually decline as the share of the bonus is increased. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397867 |
| By: | Anda Nugroho (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation); Marc Mariano (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation); George Verikios (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University); Kenneth Clements (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Widely used global food demand elasticities often derive from outdated sources and insufficiently examined theoretical assumptions. This paper addresses both concerns by estimating a Rotterdam-style demand system for eleven food categories using pooled 2017–2021 International Comparison Program data covering 173 countries. We test structural stability across rounds, validate pooling, and conduct bootstrap likelihood-ratio tests of homogeneity, symmetry, preference independence, and no-price effects restrictions. Results reveal staples and vegetables are necessities while meat and alcohol are luxuries, with income sensitivity declining at higher incomes. Price sensitivity is substantially higher in low-income countries, highlighting their disproportionate vulnerability to food price hikes. Cross-price elasticities indicate dominant substitution relationships, especially among animal proteins. The resulting elasticity set can serve as an updated, empirically grounded input for global food policy modelling |
| Keywords: | food demand, income and price elasticities, 11 food subcategories, cross-country demand econometrics, International Comparison Program |
| JEL: | D12 F61 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:26-01 |
| By: | Lampkin, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Almost forty years of agri-environment and rural development policy support for organic farming in the EU has seen the sector grow from less than 100, 000 ha in 1985 to more than 18 million ha (11.1 % of EU27 utilisable agricultural area (UAA)) in 2024. While globally, the organic food market has been the primary driver of organic sector growth, in the EU policy drivers are also important, if not dominant, in explaining the growth trends. Regulatory definition of organic practices, agri-environmental payments for organic conversion and maintenance, rural development investment aids, promotion funding, public procurement, research and advisory measures have all contributed, often integrated in organic action plans. Overall, growth is continuing at similar rates, but with some significant variations between Member States. With the EU targeting 25% of agricultural land to be managed organically by 2030, it is relevant to ask which drivers could be leveraged to secure the desired results. In this paper we explore the evidence relating to policy, market and information drivers and their influence on the development of organic farming at EU level and in individual member states. Policy recommendations to achieve this, with a focus on the next CAP, are highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397905 |
| By: | Chalmers, Neil G.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Rathnayaka, Shashika D.; de Roos, Baukje |
| Abstract: | Recent research using extracted data on the UK Seafood Supply chain shows the top four combined sustainability and nutrient dense species of: herring, mackerel, salmon, and mussels, whilst, the 5 most consumed fish species (‘the big five’, e.g. cod, haddock, salmon, tuna and prawns, make up 80 percent of the fish and seafood consumed in the UK), are all import reliant. Rathnayaka et al (2025) found that demand for most seafood products was more dependent on income and change in tastes than price. The work on this paper extended the analysis of the demand for seafood products by considering: (1) different seafood classifications, (2) a different demand system, (3) use of 2024 cross sectional data and (4) estimating five demand systems based on the quintiles of household spending on food and drink products (a proxy for household income). This study applies an incomplete demand system modelling to understand British household demand for sustainable and nutrient dense seafood products with regards to the different household income groups. The Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system used cross sectional data and considering different socioeconomic groups (identified by income quintiles). The data consisted of 2024 Kantar Worldpanel data for Great Britain, considering 5 seafood groups. The estimated demand system was used to compute price and expenditure elasticities at household level. The main findings suggest that lower income households are more price sensitive relative to higher income households for canned oily fish and oil fish products. Therefore, a price-based policy for lower expenditure households with regards to canned oily and oily fish may be an effective way to encourage greater consumption of seafood products with potential beneficial health and sustainable benefits. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397918 |
| By: | Mgomezulu, Wisdom Richard; Thangata, Paul; Marechera, George; Said, Jonathan; Muthini, Davis; Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso |
| Abstract: | Agricultural mechanization is re-emerging as a pivotal lever for transforming AgriFood Systems, boosting productivity, and creating decent jobs in low- and middle-income economies. This study utilizes country Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Egypt, Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Malawi to quantify economy-wide effects of increased mechanization investment and identify where mechanization most effectively catalyzes output growth, labor income, and job creation. We apply SAM-based multiplier analysis to simulate +10% and +20% investment shocks, tracing direct and indirect effects on sectoral outputs and labor compensation, and aggregating GDP impacts. This approach captures cross-sector linkages like machinery, metals, energy, finance, and logistics while benchmarking near-term elasticities and diffusion pathways. GDP rises by approximately 0.33–0.91% at +10% shocks and doubles at +20%; labor compensation increases by roughly 0.21–0.71%. The largest sectoral output and labor-income gains accrue to machinery, equipment and vehicles, with strong spillovers to business and financial services. In agri-food, short-run output effects for staples are modest, while mechanization intensifies labor demand and incomes in post-harvest handling, grading/packaging, cold chain. The study recommends prioritization of a services-led mechanization strategy to take advantage of upstream job opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397893 |
| By: | Wiggins, Steve; Ahmed, Bilkisu Yayaji; Akullo, Betty; Barry, Boukary; Dudu, Johnson; Eronmhonsele, Job; Kiwala, Yusuf; Ogisi, Dicta; Onokerhoraye, Andrew; Opio, Jimmy; Patel, Neema; Sulieman, Hussein |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397873 |
| By: | Maruejols, Lucie |
| Abstract: | Program officers are faced with difficult modelling choices when monitoring the state of diverse yet related dimensions of household food security. We compare results of single- and multi-output frameworks, applying both econometric and machine learning models, to jointly predict three interrelated outcomes of food security: prevalence of undernourishment (access), dietary diversity (utilization), and food market dependence (stability). Using the 2013–2022 Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey, the results show that accounting for interdependencies among outcomes significantly improves accuracy, with the Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM) outperforming both single-output regressions and single- and multi-output neural networks. The asymmetry between caloric adequacy, dietary diversity, and market exposure explains that multi-output modeling enhances predictive power over single outputs. The findings can guide program officers navigating the trade-offs between prediction performance, interpretability and feasibility, showing that linear models can deliver robust predictions even when outcome dependencies are jointly addressed. These findings advance understanding on the interrelations between multiple dimensions of food security and have important implications for designing monitoring strategies that recognize the multidimensional nature. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397911 |
| By: | Mzek, Tareq; Piras, Simone; Lozada, Luz-Maria; Premarathne, Mindi |
| Abstract: | Agri‑Environmental Climate Schemes (AECS) are central to Scotland’s environmental goals, but their success depends on voluntary farmer participation. This study used a discrete choice experiment to explore Scottish farmers’ preferences for AECS design. A total of 144 farmers completed an online survey, choosing between hypothetical scheme options that varied in contract duration, environmental objective, collaboration requirements, technical assistance, payment type, monitoring approach, and payment level. Data were analysed using conditional and mixed logit models. Results show that farmers are generally not in favour of having to collaborate with other farmers; the option to apply jointly was consistently viewed negatively across all models. There is some evidence that farmers prefer shorter contracts over longer ones, and that they are open to results‑based payments and schemes focused on soil health. The payment (monetary) attribute itself was not statistically significant, and its large standard deviation suggests farmers are divided on whether payments drive their choices: some respond positively and others negatively. Willingness to accept estimates should be treated with caution given the uncertainty around the payment coefficient. These findings highlight the importance of farmers’ independence and flexibility when designing schemes. The results also point to potential interest in soil health and results‑based payments, and that the payment level is not necessarily the main driver beyond application decisions. These findings can assist policymakers in understanding what truly matters to farmers when designing the AECS. By incorporating farmers’ views, they can not only encourage higher participation rates but also ensure that the schemes on offer align more closely with farmers’ actual requirements. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397890 |
| By: | Liu, Qi; Hanley, Nick; Yi, Yuanyuan; Xu, Jintao; Kontoleon, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) schemes, particularly those involving tree-planting initiatives, are increasingly recognized for their great potential to mitigate carbon emissions and address climate change. Among them, Outcome-Based Payments (also known as results-based schemes) have gained attention for their cost-effectiveness and potential to improve environmental efficiency. This study examines farmers’ preferences towards participating in an outcome-based tree planting scheme using a discrete choice experiment conducted in Yunnan, China. We explicitly incorporate uncertainty in environmental outcomes, which in turn affects payment structures. We also elicit farmers’ risk perceptions through incentivized field lottery games and examine its influence on participation decisions and marginal willingness-to-accept (WTA). Based on a sample of 340 respondents, we find that farmers’ willingness to participate is significantly influenced by contract attributes, including the subsidy level, provision of training and technical guidance, environmental performance requirements, and the degree of uncertainty involved. Our findings further highlight the role of uncertainty and risk perceptions in shaping farmers’ decision-making processes in outcome-based PES. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397897 |
| By: | Mittermaier, Daniel; Merschroth, Simon; Auer, Cornelia; Bohne, Tobias; Ferri, Stefano; Gottwick, Vanessa; Michelini, Sidney; Slouma, Sana; Racek, Daniel; Šedová, Barbora |
| Abstract: | Climate and conflict hazards both threaten human security, and where they coincide their effects may compound. Yet global risk assessments often lack transparency and do not clearly distinguish between climate risk, conflict risk, and the vulnerabilities that shape both. We introduce the Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess where, to what extent, and under which conditions climate and conflict risks (co-)occur. The CCVI is a global index at 0.5° x 0.5° spatial resolution and updated quarterly and harmonizes a wide range of indicators based on publicly available data to create measures of climate and conflict risk together with a combined score identifying places exposed to both. Applying the index globally, we find that combined climate-conflict risk is generally low to moderate, but highly concentrated in specific regions, with the highest levels observed in Africa between the Sahel belt and the equator. We further show that climate and conflict risks are spatially correlated in an asymmetric way: high conflict risk rarely occurs where climate risk is low, whereas high climate risk occurs across the full range of conflict risk. By separating shared vulnerability from climate and conflict hazards, the CCVI helps identify location-specific risk profiles. It constitutes an openly accessible, transparent tool for comparing climate-conflict risk patterns across sub-national regions worldwide. |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jqmx9_v1 |
| By: | Bardazzi, Elisa; Barbosa, Ana-Luisa; Beber, Caetano; van Berkum, Siemen; Bos, Astrid; Doelman, Jonathan; Frank, Stefan; Gocht, Alexander; Haniotis, Anastassios; Havlík, Petr; Kesting, Monika; Krisztin, Tamás; Krüger, Christoph; Kumar, Ipsita; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Müller, Marc; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Pieralli, Simone; Salputra, Guna; Singh, Rupesh; Weiss, Franz; Witzke, Peter; Wögerer, Michael; Zamani, Omid; van Meijl, Hans; van Zeist, Willem-Jan |
| Abstract: | Economic models are widely used to assess future developments in EU agriculture, yet their baseline projections often differ due to structural and behavioral assumptions. This paper compares harmonized medium- to long-term projections from six established modelling frameworks (AGLINKCOSIMO, AGMEMOD, CAPRI, GLOBIOM, IMAGE and MAGNET). Using common assumptions for population, economic growth, yield trends and current policies, we assess the consistency of projected developments in production, land use, emissions, prices and trade at EU, Member State and global levels. The comparison identifies several robust signals at aggregate EU level, including yield-driven output growth, moderate land contraction and modest declines in agricultural emissions. At the same time, substantial divergence emerges in trade balances, commodity composition and selected crop-specific land-use outcomes, while spatial patterns at Member State level are more heterogeneous than EU aggregates suggest. We further examine how external shocks—higher trade barriers, sustained energy and fertilizer price increases, and stronger climate impacts—affect model dispersion. The results clarify where projections are structurally robust and where outcomes are sensitive to modelling architecture, thereby indicating when single-model assessments provide reliable guidance and when multi-model evidence is particularly valuable for policy interpretation. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397881 |
| By: | Nainggolan, Lukas Bonar; Lansink, Alfons Oude; Rommel, Jens; Höhler, Julia |
| Abstract: | Agricultural and forestry production are inherently connected to the provision of impure public goods, yet public good provision generally remains below socially optimal levels. One promising approach to increase provision are social norms and non-binding collective agreements facilitated through cooperatives, although existing evidence on their effectiveness is mixed. We conducted a threshold public goods experiment with 141 farmers and foresters from Greece and Italy to examine the effectiveness of collective agreements and the relationship between social norms and cooperation. Our results show that non-binding collective agreements significantly increase individual contributions. We contribute to the literature by showing that not only average social norms, but also their distribution, are correlated with individual contributions, with greater heterogeneity within groups associated with lower contributions. Overall, focal points are shaped by expectations of peers’ contributions. Two key implications follow: cooperatives can effectively facilitate collective action, and managing heterogeneity among farmers and foresters is essential for sustaining cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397870 |
| By: | Samarasinghe, B K D J R; Yuchun, Zhu; Abeynayake, N R; Wanninayake, R W W M P K |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of seasonal climate on rice yield in Sri Lanka and uses district-level panel data covering the period from 1979 to 2024. Yala and Maha seasons are considered separately, and a fixed-effects Spatial Durbin model with a queen contiguity matrix is used to capture both local and spatial spillover effects. In the Yala season, spatial spillovers are predominant: increases in harvested area boost local yields, but expansion into neighbouring districts reduces yields. Significant positive spillovers stem from minimum temperature and rainfall in adjacent districts, while the interaction of rainfall extent shows negative spillovers. Although most individual weather variables have insignificant direct effects, their total effects are positive and significant, reflecting the overall influence of climatic conditions across the spatial system. In the Maha season, rice yield is mainly influenced by local factors: harvested area and rainfall have notable positive direct effects, with minimal spillover effects from neighbouring districts. Night-day humidity differences negatively impact local yields. Cross-seasonal spatial models show that rainfall in the earlier Maha season positively affects Yala yields, and humidity differences in the Yala season negatively affect the next Maha season rice production. Our estimates indicate that climatic variations in one season can affect another season, underscoring the need for seasonal, spatial interdependencies considerations for policy-making and implementing climate adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397923 |
| By: | Ghoshray, Atanu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the price linkages between major exporting countries of wheat, whereby the actions of profit-seeking exporters is expected to form a long-run equilibrium so that the price differences should be no more than the costs of spatial arbitrage. This mechanism is akin to the Law of One Price (LOP hereafter). The global wheat market is an interesting case as it is characterized by market concentration where only a handful of countries account for more than two-thirds of the total wheat exports, along with the fact that wheat as a commodity has different end uses based on its intrinsic characteristics, thereby making it a differentiated product. Furthermore, the wheat export market has undergone structural change over the last decade, such as the signing of new trade agreements, the changing composition of wheat sellers and buyers, the dismantling of single desk monopoly boards, climate change and war. This paper contributes by testing for the LOP that allows for several structural shifts in prices over time, by making use of a novel multivariate flexible fourier form procedure due to Pascalau et al. (2022). We also test for price leadership and use simulations to trace out the response of individual country export prices to competing country price shocks. The empirical results contribute to our understanding of the structure of the world wheat export market. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397906 |
| By: | Velazco, Jacqueline |
| Abstract: | Peru, a small open economy, has experienced recurrent cycles of crisis and recovery closely linked to shifts in external demand. Its long-run growth pattern is characterised by primary commodity exports and manufactured imports. Development strategies since the late nineteenth century can be broadly grouped into: primary export diversification, import-substituting industrialisation, and, from 1990 onwards, the promotion of non-traditional exports. Against this backdrop, the paper aims to address, from a long-term perspective, the question of the role of agriculture in Peru's growth process for the period 1896-2012. To achieve this, two analyses were conducted. The first aims to identify the relationship between agricultural GDP, industrial GDP, mining GDP, and other sectors, including services and energy. It is assumed that these sectors represent the state of urban development, and it is of interest to understand their level of interaction with agriculture. The second analysis aims to empirically verify the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis and the import-led growth hypothesis (ILG). Time-series co-integration techniques were employed. Econometric findings pointed out a negative relationship between agriculture and industry. The paper identifies bidirectional links between agriculture and urban sectors (services and energy), with food flows, migration and labour markets connecting rural households’ diversified livelihoods to city-based employment. It also finds that Peru exhibits both export-led and import-led growth dynamics: agricultural and non-agricultural exports, together with imports of inputs and capital goods, jointly underpin a feedback relationship between trade and long-run economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397898 |