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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Reena Singh (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati; Purvi Thangaraj |
| Abstract: | Punjab and Haryana have long played a pioneering role in shaping India's agricultural transformation, when it was needed the most. With the adoption of input-intensive technologies during the Green Revolution, Punjab emerged as the leader in transforming Indian agriculture during the 1970s and 1980s, with Haryana following closely. This transformation led to a substantial increase in wheat and rice productivity, thereby significantly strengthening government procurement of these staple crops and ensuring food security of the country. Further, India has emerged as the largest producer of rice in the world and also the largest exporter with a share of 40 per cent in global exports of rice during Marketing Year 2025 (USDA, 2026). At the same time, the environmental costs of sustaining national food security have been substantial. Intensive paddy (rice) cultivation practices have placed severe stress on natural resources, leading to the degradation of land and depletion of groundwater in both states. Yet, farmers continue to grow this crop due to profitability and its assured procurement from the government. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, Farmer Income, carbon credits, export, national food security, Punjab, Haryana, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-13 |
| By: | Charis Anais Kanellos; Philippe Delacote; Antonello Lobianco; David. W Shanafelt |
| Abstract: | Recent bioenergy policies have led to an increase in wood demand, the use of which is linked to sustainability and climate change objectives. However, balancing climate mitigation and wood harvest involves land use competition among sectors (e.g. agriculture vs forestry) and within sectors (e.g. resource exploitation and conservation). By developing a theoretical model of natural resources management and conducting numerical simulations, we show how initial land allocation impacts forest expansion and intensification choices in two regions. In particular, we analyze optimal land allocation (between primary, secondary forest and agriculture) and timber harvest intensity under scenarios of increased wood demand, harvest restriction in primary forest and tree mortality, including quantifying the marginal rates of substitution between harvest intensity and forest expansion and between primary and secondary forest. The initial land allocation does not significantly affects forest management decisions. As wood demand increases, the profitability of wood production rises, resulting in a combination of deforestation and higher harvested volumes. In our model, secondary and primary forests behave as substitutes: secondary forests can be harvested in lieu of primary forest to meet timber demand. These findings underscore the need for sustainable harvesting practices and policies, especially as forest resources face growing pressure from climate change, rising timber demand, and regulatory constraints. |
| Keywords: | forestry, land allocation, agriculture, sustainable resource management |
| JEL: | Q23 Q3 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-13 |
| By: | Alexis Habiyaremye (College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg. South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg); Phumzile Ncube (College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg. South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg); Kiru Sichoongwe (South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg); Anele Slater (South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg) |
| Abstract: | The use of advanced technologies in South African commercial agriculture has a long history. Digital technologies have been acknowledged as a potentially revolutionary way to boost the efficiency and sustainability of agricultural production systems. The South African agricultural sector is a significant contributor to the country’s export earnings, food security and employment. In the era of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) and other digital technologies, the South African agricultural sector could benefit from more intensive digitalisation, such as precision agriculture and climate smart agri-food systems that balance the shifts in demand preferences and sustainable supply. This study analyses the patterns, drivers, constraints and sustainability implications of advanced technology adoption in the South African agricultural sector. Using in-depth interview data, we generate evidence-based insights into the dynamics of advanced technology adoption and diffusion. We use the ‘technology-organisation-environment’ and the ‘technology acceptance model’ to analyse the implications of advanced technology adoption and diffusion for productivity, skills and labour needs in selected agricultural sub-sectors, with a specific emphasis on the citrus production sub-sector. We find that factors such as perceived usefulness, economies of scale, complementary technological infrastructure and access to finance play an important role in enabling precision agriculture technologies. For the citrus sector, additional factors – such as market requirements and harvest optimisation – appear to be key drivers of automation technology in the packhouses. The economies of scale and the adoption challenges faced by smallholder farmers underscore the importance of coordinated policy and the role of affordable complementary infrastructure in fostering inclusive technology diffusion. Policies aimed at stimulating the adoption and diffusion of precision agriculture technologies will need to factor all these findings into their deliberations, and align them with long-term development strategies. |
| Keywords: | Precision agriculture, AgriTech, 4IR technologies, post-harvest processes |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q12 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adz:wpaper:2024-07 |
| By: | Gilles A Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Guano, a natural fertilizer derived from seabird excrement, is exceptionally rich in phosphates, nitrates, and potassium, essential for crop growth and soil restoration. In the nineteenth century, Peru's islands contained vast deposits that fueled intensive agriculture, particularly in Europe. Extraction relied on immigrant labor under harsh conditions and required sophisticated coordination among local producers, traders, and maritime carriers. Exposure to storms, piracy, and political conflicts demonstrated that economic strength alone could not secure export flows. Reliance on a limited number of islands made supply chains highly vulnerable, highlighting the necessity of diversifying sources and maintaining strategic reserves. The guano trade provides early evidence that resilient agricultural commodity chains depend on proactive planning, logistical flexibility, and multi-stakeholder collaboration. Lessons from this historical case offer a framework for modern agricultural systems to withstand environmental, economic, and geopolitical shocks. By emphasizing anticipation, diversification, and operational margins, the guano case illustrates how continuity of procurement and agricultural productivity can be preserved, providing actionable insights for contemporary food security, sustainable fertilizer management, and the strategic handling of critical resources. |
| Keywords: | critical resources, food security, guano, history, logistics, resource dependence, supply chain, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05582105 |
| By: | Kenny Kutu (Department of Business Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Sonali Das (Department of Business Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa; National Institute for Theoretical and Computational Sciences (NITheCS), South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of climate risks on the prices of agricultural commodities in South Africa, a nation with heightened levels of poverty, subsequent household food insecurity and food price sensitivities. Composite climate risks, including both physical and transition risks, are captured through a Google Trends-based Climate Attention Index for South Africa. Panel fixed effects, feasible generalised least squares and seemingly unrelated regression estimators are applied to a panel of 16 agricultural commodities for the period 2004--2024. Results show that climate risks are inflationary, possibly through supply-related channels, where climate risks reduce yields, resulting in a subsequent increase in prices. The feasible generalised least square estimation suggests that a one unit increase in the composite climate risk index can result, on average, in a 0.023 percentage point increase in real commodity price growth rates for production growth at the mean, ceteris paribus. Additionally, allowing for heterogeneity in the slope parameters through a seemingly unrelated regression model shows that real horticultural product prices are generally more sensitive to composite climate risks. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Commodity Prices, Climate Attention Index, Composite Climate Risks, Panel Data, South Africa, SDG2 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202612 |
| By: | Tsiboe, Francis; Njuki, Eric |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses divergent interpretations of agricultural insurance's association with on-farm production variability by conducting an exhaustive analysis of the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program and its effect on farm technology levels and efficiency. We utilize a meta-stochastic frontier approach and employ nearest-neighbor matching of insured and uninsured farms to minimize the self-selection issue in insurance participation. Analyzing 106, 551 farm-level observations from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey spanning 2001–2023, we find that insured farms exhibit an 8.50% higher technology level and a 6.36% greater efficiency in resource usage compared to uninsured farms. This technology level gap associated with insurance is weakly linked to its ability to strengthen producers' financial positions, making them more reliable candidates for credit and potentially promoting the use of technologies that yield relatively higher output. Additionally, significant variations in the benefits of insurance across different farm types and operator demographics are documented, underscoring the necessity for agricultural policy to be responsive to the heterogeneous needs of the farming community to optimize the impact of insurance programs. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwo:396438 |
| By: | Alexandre Gohin (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The margin levels of French food retailers are debated at every farm crisis. The main objective of this article is to statistically identify the eventual existence of market powers of these retailers. In order to overcome missing data on their distribution costs, we develop an original framework of the French system of temporary limits on margins in case of a market crisis. Our econometric results conducted on two fruit and vegetable products indicate that this system is effective with significant reductions of these margins during market crises. Above all, our statistical results indicate that the French food retailers simultaneously modify their margins on other products, attesting the presence of market powers to the detriment of the organic sectors. |
| Keywords: | Food retailing, Market powers, Organic markets, Distribution alimentaire, Pouvoir de marché, Filières biologiques |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05583696 |
| By: | Ndip, Francis E.; Maina, Cecilia |
| Abstract: | Adoption of agricultural technologies is crucial for sustainable development, yet adoption of many relevant technologies remains low, especially among smallholder farmers in Africa. While there is an extensive literature aimed at understanding drivers of adoption, intra-household factors have received much less attention. In this study, we examine the relationship between spousal cooperation, an important intra-household factor, and the adoption of agricultural technologies among smallholder farmers in Cameroon. Specifically, we focus on improved seed varieties, inorganic fertilizers, intercropping, and minimum tillage as technologies. We combine survey and lab-in-the-field experimental data and employ multivariate probit models to account for simultaneous adoption. We also estimate associations between cooperation and the number of technologies adopted. The results suggest that spousal cooperation is positively associated with the adoption of improved varieties and intercropping. However, we find no associations between cooperation and adoption of inorganic fertilizers and minimum tillage, although the coefficients are positive. We also find that cooperation is positively associated with the number of technologies adopted. Lastly, we find interesting complementarities between the various technologies. Our findings suggest that promoting spousal cooperation could serve as an important leverage point for the adoption of modern agricultural technologies. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:396426 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Primov, Abdulla; Khamidov, Imomjon |
| Abstract: | The study provides some fresh insights into the Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) framework in Bukhara and Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan. The findings confirm that loss in production, soil erosion, deforestation, decreasing arable land, salinization, and water management are the most prevailing challenges in the region. Our resilience analysis confirms that access to basic services, assets, adaptive capacity, and social safety nets enhances household resilience. Socio-economic results of LDN show the importance of an institutional approach, a capacity approach, a gender-sensitive approach, food and water integration, financial support and incentives, and other synergies. For LDN, special attention is needed to restore biodiversity and productivity, which may yield significant economic benefits for agriculture and horticulture. A priority should be given to a sustainable development approach that will focus on socio-economic development, environmental protection, and inclusivity in the regions. There is a noticeable intervention showing the disintegration of the ecosystem in supporting income-generating activities in the region. This situation requires a sustainable development intervention enhancing the implementation of LDN. |
| Keywords: | Degradation, Climate change, Land, Resilience |
| JEL: | A1 Q10 R20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:339913 |
| By: | Guillaume Denos (IAE Angers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Angers - UA - Université d'Angers, GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Mathias Guérineau (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, CRG I3 - Centre de Recherche en Gestion I3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Etienne Capron (DRM - MLAB - Dauphine Recherches en Management - MLAB - DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Faced with grand challenges and complex problems, society urgently needs to develop alternative solutions to transition toward a more sustainable model. Among these challenges, food is at the forefront. To tackle the challenge of transitioning toward a sustainable food system, some actors are seeking to develop alternative food systems, referring to actors and initiatives aimed at creating new relationships between producers and consumers, in opposition to intensive agriculture and the domination of multinationals (Michel, 2019).Addressing these major challenges often involves transformative social innovations. This term describe these "shared activities, ideas and objects across locally rooted sustainability initiatives that explore and develop alternatives to incumbent and (perceived) unsustainable regimes that they seek to challenge, alter or replace" (Loorbach et al., 2020, p. 254). Empirical cases of solutions at different stages of the food chain have been explored in the literature (e.g. Colombo et al., 2023; Michel, 2019). More generally, the literature has shown that transformative social innovations are generally seen as emerging from a local problem identified by actors in a region (Mazzei, 2017). However, relatively similar solutions are used in different regions. For example, different models of energy cooperatives exist in different European countries, and even within the same country with nuances depending on the region (Baileche et al., 2024; Bauwens et al., 2020; Geskus et al., 2024). Remains one persistent question : how to scale these innovations.To contrast with conventional definitions of scaling, where the objective is the organization's economic growth, researchers have developed a framework in which scaling refers to maximizing the impact of the organization and its social and environmental mission (Colombo et al., 2023). Different types of scaling routes have been identified theoretically and empirically (e.g. Bauwens et al., 2020; Colombo et al., 2023; Westley et al., 2014). These studies show that scaling is a temporal process, which follows an evolutionary and non-linear This work is in line with the multi-scale perspective of transition processes (Binz et al., 2020; Coenen et al., 2012) to better understand how transformative social innovations develop within and between regions. We contribute to a better understanding of the scaling process of transformative social innovations in two ways. First, by reversing the perspective to the actors who adopt and implement social innovations locally, we extend the actors to be considered and highlight a process that is not unidirectional, but can come from the intentions, resources and actions of actors who adopt and translate innovations. Second, by studying how organizations implement transformative social innovation through placemaking (Cartel et al., 2022; Fohim et al., 2024), we explore how local and extra-local resources are combined to connect their organisation to the local context and materialise in a place. |
| Keywords: | Solidarity restaurants, Transformative social innovation, Place, Scaling |
| Date: | 2025–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05583293 |
| By: | Lwin, Wuit Yi; Keller, Andrew; Arita, Shawn; Cooper, Joseph; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | This study provides ex post evidence on the retail price, consumption, and supply chain effects of animal confinement legislation (ACL), specifically California's Proposition 12, which prohibits the sale of pork from breeding sows housed below minimum space requirements. Using Circana weekly retail scanner data from January 2020 to January 2026 and USDA Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR) wholesale data from January 2022 through January 2026, we estimate regulatory effects by exploiting variation across the ACL-compliant and conventional pork markets. Following full ACL enforcement in January 2024, retail pork price premiums widened by 72.7 cents per pound in California and 62.8 cents per pound in Massachusetts, with an overall widening of 71.2 cents per pound. California's national pork purchase share declined from 8.5 to 7.1 percent. At the wholesale level, the ACL compliance premium averaged 24.2 cents per pound, and at the retail level, it was amplified by a factor of 2.95. The combined retail consumer cost for California and Massachusetts totals approximately $403.1 million over the enforcement period, with retail amplification accounting for the largest share (54.1%), followed by producer-received premiums (30.2%) and packer net margin (15.7%). |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwp:396440 |
| By: | Nathania Vieira de Mello, Benedicta Neysa (United Nations); de Mello, Sergio Alfredo Jose Vieira |
| Abstract: | Climate justice has emerged as one of the most critical ethical, legal, and political frameworks in global climate governance. It is no longer sufficient to treat climate change as a purely scientific or environmental matter, as the crisis increasingly reveals structural inequalities, historical injustice, and uneven global vulnerability. Climate change affects communities differently based on wealth, geographic exposure, political representation, and access to adaptation resources. These unequal impacts reinforce existing social injustices and deepen poverty, displacement, health insecurity, and conflict. This paper, developed by the United Nations Human Rights Educational Project (UNHREP), examines climate justice as a human rights-based framework that connects environmental protection with global equity and sustainable peace. It argues that climate policy must not only aim for emission reduction and technological transition, but also uphold human dignity through accountability mechanisms, inclusive decision-making, and fair distribution of resources. Using a qualitative policy-based approach, this paper integrates human rights principles with climate governance instruments, including the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and evolving norms recognizing the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment. The paper highlights that the climate crisis is fundamentally linked to rights such as the right to life, health, food, water, housing, and cultural identity. It also addresses the importance of intergenerational justice and the ethical responsibilities of high-emission states and corporate actors. The paper concludes with the position that climate justice must be operationalized through transparent financing, legally binding accountability, protection of Indigenous and marginalized communities, and climate education that empowers global citizenship. UNHREP recommends stronger mechanisms for loss and damage support, inclusive adaptation governance, and global partnerships rooted in human rights obligations. |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:uswxd_v1 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Davronova, Durdonabonu |
| Abstract: | Emerging discourses present evidence from post-Soviet countries, suggesting that remittances may complement household resilience capacity in the face of climate change. This manuscript, using “COVID-19 Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS)” data from the World Bank, aims to analyse the effect of remittance on household resilience capacity in Georgia. The measurement strategy employs the Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) approach, as proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). RIMA measures Resilience Index Capacity (RCI) through available household adaptive options (pillars): Access to Basic Services (ABS), Adaptive Capacity (AC), Social Safety Nets (SSN), and Sensitivity (S). The results of the econometric model indicate that remittance has a positive impact on RCI, primarily through the ABS and AC pillars. Further policies in Georgia should consider the role of remittances in enhancing household resilience, ensuring that the negative consequences of shocks do not have long-lasting effects on household livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | Remittance, climate change, household resilience, capacity |
| JEL: | A1 Q00 C1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:339912 |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Basco Mascaro, Sergi; Domènech Feliu, Jordi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how export-oriented settler agriculture shaped the spatial distribution of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. By the early twentieth century, Algeria had become one of the world's largest wine producers and the principal supplier of wine to metropolitan France. We construct a commune-level panel dataset combining census measures of theindigenous population with indicators of viticultural intensity derived from agricultural reports. Exploiting variation in early exposure to viticulture across communes, we show that indigenous population growth became increasingly concentrated in high-viticulture areas from the late 1920s onward, with divergence intensifying during the Great Depression. This pattern is consistent with in-migration driven by the relatively continuous labor demand of viticulture -unlike more seasonal crops- followed by reduced outward mobility as alternative employment opportunities contracted. These findings indicate persistent spatial differences in population growth across communes. This study provides systematic quantitative evidence linking the labor demands of settler monoculture to the spatial concentration of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Algeria; Viticulture; Population growth; Internal migration; Labor demand; Settler economies |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:49839 |
| By: | Cortes Quiñonez, Juan Camilo; Cabezas, Stefania Cielo |
| Abstract: | Access to credit is a key driver of agricultural sector development in emerging economies; however, this process entails significant risks for financial institutions. This study examines credit risk in the agricultural sector from a macroeconomic and institutional perspective. A fixed-effects panel data model is employed for the period 2010–2022, using data from six selected countries: Colombia, Mexico, India, the Philippines, South Africa, and Romania. The dependent variable is the ratio of non-performing loans, used as a proxy for credit risk, while the independent variables include macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, institutional quality, and sector-specific agricultural variables. The results indicate that the real interest rate and agriculture's value added as a percentage of GDP are significant positive determinants of credit risk. Additionally, the analysis finds that higher government effectiveness is associated with an increase in the share of non-performing loans, potentially reflecting improved financial reporting and supervision practices. The study highlights the complex interplay between institutional environment, macroeconomic dynamics, and credit risk in the agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | Credit Risk, Agricultural Sector, Agricultural Economics, Panel Data. |
| JEL: | C23 G19 O13 O40 Q14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128675 |
| By: | Han, Sanghyun; Lwin, Wuit Yi; Steinbach, Sandro; Zurita, Carlos; Arita, Shawn |
| Abstract: | In 2025, U.S. beef prices surged by 16.4% (19.3% for ground beef), sparking widespread public debate over the role of federal trade policies in driving food inflation. This paper estimates the impact of four key 2025 trade policy changes, ranging from the Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs to an expanded Argentine import quota, on final consumer prices. Using a structural partial equilibrium trade model combined with estimated pass-through rates across the U.S. beef supply chain, we estimate the effects of these policies in the short and long run. Our estimates reveal that restrictive trade policies in 2025 contribute up to 3.91% to the overall consumer beef price increase in the short run and 1.85% in the long run. These price effects are primarily focused on boneless beef due to its higher reliance on imports, with predicted increases of 8.71% in the short run and 4.76% in the long run. Our predictions are significantly lower than the actual price increases observed, which indicates that while trade policies have contributed meaningfully to beef price inflation, other factors not modeled in this paper, such as drought-induced inventory lows, remain significant drivers. Moreover, our results indicate that, in the long run, the protectionist trade policies of 2025 decreased U.S. consumer surplus by $3.95 billion, while increasing producer surplus by $1.55 billion and government revenue by $0.41 billion. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2026–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwo:396441 |
| By: | Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | In 1893, Frederick Jackson Turner proposed that America's Far Western frontier was an economic 'safety-valve, ' a place where settlers migrated when European and eastern states' economic and social conditions crystallized against their upward mobility. However, Turner's hypothesis has come under recent scrutiny, where it is proposed that weather asymmetries and farmers' inability to adjust their farm sizes and region-specific human capital decreased Central Plains' agricultural productivity. Despite challenges to the Turner hypothesis, the Illinois prison illustrates that Central Plains' average height, BMI, and weight by socioeconomic status, race, and urban residence remained constant and robust; heights were taller, BMIs were higher, and weights were heavier. Rather than decreasing, Illinois's net nutrition remained constant or improved, despite Chicago's rapid industrialization, indicating the Turner hypothesis, as measured by net nutrition, remains a viable economic and net nutritional explanation for conditions on the western frontier. |
| Keywords: | stature, Body Mass Index, cumulative net nutrition, nativity; urbanization, race |
| JEL: | C1 C4 D1 I1 N3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12609 |
| By: | Moretz-Sohn, Caio; Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impacts of protected area downsizing and degazettement (PADD) on land-use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon. Analyzing PADD events implemented between 2009 and 2015, we compare estimates from standard difference-in-differences methods to synthetic difference-in-differences, which addresses violations of parallel trends arising from selective treatment assignment. We show that conventional difference-in-differences estimates yield null effects, consistent with prior literature. Synthetic difference-in-differences estimates, however, show that PADD increases deforestation by approximately 23% relative to pre-treatment baselines, driven by a 40% increase in pastureland expansion and a 3, 471% increase in mining area growth. The divergence in results suggests that earlier null findings reflect methodological limitations rather than the absence of actual effects. Our findings underscore the importance of legal protection for environmental outcomes, especially in politically or economically contested areas. |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wgkty_v1 |
| By: | Magali Trelohan (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Anne-Cécile Gay; David Moroz (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Damien Chaney (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School) |
| Abstract: | Despite increasing efforts to promote biodiversity protection, a persistent gap remains between policy measures and public expectations. Aligning biodiversity strategies with citizens' concerns is crucial to fostering support and ensuring effective implementation. Building on the environmental governance and ecosystem services literature, this study leverages Large Language Models for embedding-based topic modeling to analyze a large-scale public consultation involving 80, 000 participants, 6000 proposals, and 1.8 million votes in France, identifying eight key biodiversity-related themes: Management of natural and urban spaces, Resource management and pollution control, Wildlife protection and species management, Environmental education and awareness, Agriculture and sustainable food practices, Environmental policy and regulatory measures, Sustainable mobility, energy, and marine conservation, and Emerging and niche concerns. Findings also reveal significant polarization in areas such as hunting regulations, taxation of polluting products, and energy transition, while topics like environmental education and urban greening enjoy strong consensus. These insights highlight the need for differentiated strategies: prioritizing immediate action in consensus areas while fostering dialogue and adaptive policymaking in highly polarized domains. Methodologically, this study demonstrates how Large Language Models can efficiently process and analyze large-scale citizen consultation datasets, offering a scalable approach to capturing public preferences and societal debates in a policy context. |
| Keywords: | Polarization, Large Language Models, Environmental governance, Public consultation, Biodiversity |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05576392 |
| By: | Ritika Juneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Emil Thomas Johny; Ashok Gulati; Kirti Goel |
| Abstract: | India is also the world's largest consumer of cashew kernels, with domestic consumption growing at an average rate of 7 percent annually, reaching 3.2 lakh tonnes in 2021–22. This dual role—as both a major consumer and exporter, creates opportunities but also demands careful balancing of domestic and export priorities. To meet its processing needs, India imports nearly half of its RCN from African countries. However, the import trade is dominated by intermediaries, who often drive-up prices through hoarding, undermining the cost competitiveness of processors. Global trade of cashew kernel has almost doubled from 3.6 lakh tonnes in 2012 to 6.2 lakh tonnes in 2023, driven by rising global demand for healthy snacks. Vietnam is the largest exporter of cashew kernels, accounting for 63 percent of global exports valued at USD 2.8 billion in TE 2023. Whereas, India's share in global exports has shrunk to just 8 percent, valued at USD 0.37 billion during the same period, highlighting a sharp decline in its global standing. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, Cashew Export, APEDA, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-08 |
| By: | Xiaolan Zhou (School of Economics, Shandong University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Asian Development Bank Institute and Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo); Elaine S. Tan (Economic Research and Development Impact Department, Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Using proprietary data from Alibaba, we estimate a structural model for the digital food delivery platform and quantify the welfare effects of shop-type strategies. We find that shops with higher net gross merchandise value (GMV), multi-app stores, and chain stores exhibit larger cross-network effects on both consumers and couriers. These types of shops are more effective in driving the expansion of the platform’s market size and contribute more significantly to the platform’s net GMV. The magnitudes of these effects are amplified in a dynamic setting due to the positive direct network effects at the platform level. Specifically, platforms' strategy of prioritizing top merchants over supporting a multitude of mid-tier merchants proves more effective in the fresh food sector than in the cooked food sectors characterized by greater product heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2026cf1270 |
| By: | Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Bhattacharya, Leena; van Soest, Arthur |
| Abstract: | Rising temperatures due to climate change pose significant challenges to how much and how effectively individuals can work, particularly in low- and middle-income countries such as India, where exposure to extreme heat is becoming more common. While existing research documents adverse effects of heat on labor outcomes, little is known about how individuals adjust their work patterns within a day. This study examines the impact of ambient temperature on time allocation, with a focus on intraday substitution of time spent on paid work. The study uses nationally representative data from the 2019 Indian Time Use Survey combined with high-frequency temperature data measured at 30-minute intervals. We estimate the effect of temperature on total daily time spent on paid work and on the likelihood of working during specific periods of the day. Our results show that extreme heat has limited effects on overall daily work hours but leads to substantial intraday reallocation of labor. Individuals shift work from the hottest periods midday toward early morning or late evening. This pattern is primarily driven by younger men and workers in self-employed or agricultural jobs, who have greater flexibility in their schedules and are more exposed to ambient heat. In contrast, salaried workers reduce work during peak heat without compensatory increases at other times. These findings highlight the importance of flexible work arrangements and targeted heat-mitigation policies to sustain productivity and worker well-being in a warming climate. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, time use, paid work, India |
| JEL: | J22 J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1738 |
| By: | Sulakshana Rao (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Aarushi Bhargava; Aishwarya Rohtagi |
| Abstract: | India's pomegranate export potential remains largely untapped due to structural and regulatory bottlenecks. By adopting an integrated, phased strategy that targets quality enhancement, infrastructure upgrades, strategic market access, and value addition, India can emerge as a global leader in pomegranate exports. This report provides a roadmap for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and exporters to build a resilient and competitive pomegranate export ecosystem. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, agri-export, APEDA, icrier, Pomogranate |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-07 |
| By: | Jeanne Astier; Geoffrey Barrows; Raphael Calel; Helene Ollivier; Hélène Ollivier |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because trade creates spillovers, comparing the change in outcomes of regions with different exposure to shocks leads to biased estimates. We model these between-region spillovers using standard assumptions from international trade theory, and develop a model-consistent strategy for estimating key parameters and deriving counterfactuals. We use our estimation strategy to revisit the literature on the impact of climate change on gross output. We find that accounting for trade spillovers yields substantially larger climate damage projections. |
| Keywords: | climate change, spillovers, trade, gravity |
| JEL: | Q48 L1 L5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12602 |
| By: | Sebastien Gallet; Julja Prodani; Kitty Rang |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a top-down stress testing framework for estimating the financial (stability) impact of nature degradation. The methodology links the three components of the NGFS conceptual framework on nature-related risks: nature, the economy, and the financial sector. In the first step, a shock on nature, e.g. water scarcity, is calibrated based on the macroeconomic impact of proxy scenarios of nature degradation. We then estimate the impact of this shock on nature on companies. For this, we modify the Merton model (Merton, Robert C. 1974) to account for the vulnerability of companies to nature. The resulting higher probabilities of default are the main driver of credit and market risk losses for banks and insurers respectively. While the framework we introduce is general and can be applied to multi-dimensional nature shocks and joint climate-nature shocks, in quantification we focus on water as a sub-category of nature. The results show that the financial‑stability implications of nature‑related disruptions can be quantified in a coherent manner. Losses are allocated according to sectoral, geographical and ecosystem‑service vulnerabilities. The framework delivers granular indicators – from sectoral production impacts to market revaluations and prudential ratios – supporting a wide set of analytical and supervisory applications. |
| Keywords: | nature degradation; ecosystem services; biodiversity loss; dependence score; financial stability; risk; credit risk; market risk; Merton model |
| JEL: | G21 G28 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:857 |
| By: | Harsh Wardhan (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati; Kirti Goel; Aishwarya Rohtagi |
| Abstract: | This report provides a comprehensive assessment of India's cucumber and gherkin export ecosystem, with a particular focus on gherkins. It examines production patterns, global trade dynamics, export competitiveness, policy constraints, and emerging market opportunities. Drawing on secondary data and extensive stakeholder consultations, the study identifies key challenges facing the sector and proposes targeted strategies to strengthen India's global position while ensuring sustainability and inclusive growth across the value chain. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, gherkins Export, cucumber Export, APEDA, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-09 |
| By: | Ritika Juneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati; Kirti Goel; Aishwarya Rohtagi |
| Abstract: | India's Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) in pineapple has stayed below 1 since 2013, underscoring its limited competitive edge globally. RCA stood at 0.04 in 2013, peaked at 0.10 in 2017, and settled at 0.06 by 2023. This aligns with India’s stagnant export share, just 0.2 percent of global pineapple exports. Indian pineapples fetched around USD 589/tonne, marginally higher than Costa Rica’s USD 556/tonne and slightly below the Philippines’ USD 593/tonne, offering India a modest price advantage in low-volume, price-sensitive markets like the UAE, Nepal, the Maldives, and Qatar. However, India continues to lack traction in premium markets (EU, USA, Japan, South Korea) due to market access barriers, stringent compliance standards, and regulatory limitations. Competition from countries like Costa Rica and the Philippines, backed by superior supply chains, high-yield varieties (e.g. MD-2), and strong export ecosystems (e.g. institutions like CANAPEP) adds further pressure. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, Pineapple Export, APEDA, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-10 |
| By: | Christian Velasquez (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of state and sector-specific sensitivity to weather fluctuations and interregional production networks in the United States. I build a general equilibrium model where the impact of weather fluctuations on productivity is state-sector dependent, and networks expose sectors to weather shocks from other regions through intermediate inputs. To quantify these mechanisms, I use annual data on sectoral GDP and weather by state from 1970 to 2019. My estimates show that models that do not consider these characteristics underestimate the aggregate impact of weather fluctuations by at least a factor of 3. In particular, when the whole economy faces an unexpected increase in temperature of 1 Celsius degree, the contraction in economic activity increases from -0.13 to -0.37 percent once heterogeneity is considered and -1.14 percent when networks are included. |
| Keywords: | weather fluctuations, production, climate change, networks, spatial heterogeneity, GDP |
| JEL: | E23 F18 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2025-020 |