|
on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Allan Hsiao; Jacob Moscona; Benjamin A. Olken; Karthik A. Sastry |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how global warming affects deforestation and agricultural land use. Using high-resolution satellite data on global temperature, deforestation, and land cover from 2001 to 2019, we find that extreme heat shocks to agricultural productivity cause large and persistent forest loss on the world’s agricultural frontier. This effect is strongest in the tropics, in areas growing the most temperature-sensitive crops, and in regions with the most inelastic demand for agricultural products, and it does not seem to be offset by international spillovers. Moreover, we show that deforestation in response to extreme heat can be explained almost entirely by cropland expansion. We corroborate these findings using agricultural census data from Brazil, where we find evidence for a mechanism whereby heat reduces yields and raises local agricultural prices, driving cropland expansion but little land use or input adjustment along other margins. Our estimates imply that extreme heat has driven substantial forest loss and that projected warming through 2100 could lead to an additional 28 million hectares of deforestation. Our findings challenge the view that reallocation will soften the environmental consequences of climate change, suggesting instead that farmers double down and expand cropland locally when productivity falls. |
| JEL: | O13 Q15 Q23 Q24 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35029 |
| By: | Lacy, Katherine; Key, Nigel; Bauman, Allison; Jablonski, Becca B.R.; Hadrich, Joleen |
| Abstract: | Information from the 2022 Census of Agriculture is used to describe the characteristics of farms and ranches with beginning farmers and ranchers (BFRs), producers having no more than 10 years of farming experience. The report presents data for farms where all producers are BFRs; at least one, but not all producers are BFRs (multigenerational); and those operations with no BFRs. For each type of operation, the report compares the characteristics of business operations that survived from 2012 to 2022 to those that did not. The analysis identifies which farm and producer characteristics were correlated with farm business survival over this 10-year period. Results suggest that land tenure arrangements, the use of differentiated markets, crop insurance, and government payments are important correlates with business survival for farms operated by beginning farmers and ranchers. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:396401 |
| By: | Luck, Nathalie (University of Passau and TU Munich); Grimm, Michael (University of Passau); Tamtomo, Kristian (Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta) |
| Abstract: | Most impact assessments of agricultural training evaluate one-time interventions over short time horizons. However, farmers may initially show enthusiasm for a new technology but subsequently dis-adopt it after a trial period, while others may adopt practices gradually over time. This study investigates the causal impact of repeated agricultural training on the adoption of organic farming practices among Indonesian smallholder farmers. Using a randomized controlled trial and four waves of panel data spanning five years, we analyze adoption dynamics over time. Farmers in the treatment group received training twice, once in 2018 and again in 2022. Our findings show that repeated training significantly increased the adoption of organic farming practices, but no evidence that training motivated farmers to fully transition to organic farming. Adoption patterns reveal substantial dis-adoption, re-adoption, and late adoption following repeated training. The results contribute to understanding longer-term adoption dynamics after extension programs and provide insights into the challenges faced by smallholder farmers transitioning to sustainable agricultural practices. |
| Keywords: | organic farming, training, skills, technology adoption, information constraints, extension services, Indonesia |
| JEL: | C93 J24 J43 O12 O13 Q12 Q15 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18479 |
| By: | Hélène David-Benz (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Arlène Alpha (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Victoria Bancal (UMR QualiSud - Démarche intégrée pour l'obtention d'aliments de qualité - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UNA - Université Nangui Abrogoua); Carine Barbier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Damien Beillouin (UPR HORTSYS - Fonctionnement agroécologique et performances des systèmes de cultures horticoles - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Yannick Biard (UPR HORTSYS - Fonctionnement agroécologique et performances des systèmes de cultures horticoles - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, ELSA - Pôle ELSA, Environmental Life Cycle and Sustainability Assessment); Daniel Foncéka (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Franck Galtier (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Sandra Payen (UMR ABSys - Agrosystèmes Biodiversifiés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Ninon Sirdey (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Mathieu Weil (UMR QualiSud - Démarche intégrée pour l'obtention d'aliments de qualité - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | Climate change and food systems are now key priorities on global and national agendas, with resilience emphasized at the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit and COP28 in 2023. Food systems include all stages from input production to consumption and waste, contributing about one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions. Industrialized countries are major emitters due to their production and consumption patterns, while developing countries, though less responsible, face greater climate impacts. This chapter analyzes both emission sources within food systems and climate change's effects, especially on post-production stages. It highlights increasing food security risks, particularly in low-income countries. |
| Date: | 2026–03–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05576767 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The global trade in animal products, excluding trade between European Union (EU) Member States, has grown significantly over the past two decades, reaching 226 billion euros in 2023. This represents approximately 17 % of total agricultural and agri-food trade. With a trade surplus of nearly 50 billion euros in 2024, the EU is the region in the world with the largest surplus for animal products. Despite the implementation of several free trade agreements, the EU's trade balance has improved markedly over the past twenty years, particularly thanks to dairy products and pork. While trade agreements with the United Kingdom and Canada have been beneficial to European trade, more restrictive measures were introduced in 2025 with Ukraine to curb a substantial rise in exports (notably for poultry) since the outbreak of the war. |
| Abstract: | Les échanges mondiaux de produits animaux, hors commerce entre les États membres de l'Union européenne (UE), ont fortement progressé au fil des deux dernières décennies pour atteindre 226 milliards d'euros en 2023, soit l'équivalent de 17 % du total des échanges de produits agricoles et agroalimentaires. Avec une balance commerciale proche de 50 milliards d'euros en 2024, l'UE est la zone la plus excédentaire au monde en produits animaux. En dépit de la mise en œuvre de plusieurs accords de libre-échange, le solde commercial de l'UE s'est nettement amélioré au fil des deux dernières décennies grâce surtout aux produits laitiers et à la viande porcine. Si les accords commerciaux signés avec le Royaume-Uni et le Canada ont été favorables au commerce européen, des mesures plus restrictives ont été appliquées en 2025 avec l'Ukraine pour contenir une hausse importante des exportations de ce pays depuis le déclenchement de la guerre, notamment en viande de volaille. |
| Keywords: | Animal production, Trade agreements, Imports, Exports, Competitiveness, Trade, Productions animales, Accords commerciaux, Importations, Exportations, Compétitivité, Commerce |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05575524 |
| By: | Douadia Bougherara (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Léa Gosset (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Raphaële Préget (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sophie Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | This article measures farmers' innovativeness and the effectiveness of a priming nudge on their (stated) intention to adopt an innovation, namely the French "Low-carbon label" (LCL). The LCL is an innovative certification framework that provides farmers with a potential new "green business model, " enabling them to generate income through the sale of certified carbon credits earned by reducing their own greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using 6, 005 responses to an online survey with French farmers, we validate an original scale designed to measure farmers' capacity to innovate and find that innovativeness is positively correlated with stated intention to adopt the LCL. We then evaluate with a randomized experiment included in the questionnaire the net impact of a priming nudge, defined as exposure to a lexical field designed to unconsciously activate psychological factors, and implemented here with references to innovation in order to target the most innovative farmers. We show that the nudge has no detectable impact on the surveyed sample: it neither increases adoption intentions among the most innovative farmers nor discourages the less innovative ones. This absence of effect leads us to discuss the effectiveness of nudges when trying to influence farmers' high-stakes decisions.www.agropolis-fondation.fr/?lang=en. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05571841 |
| By: | Hannah Kamen (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Jared C. Carbone (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Ben Livneh (Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado and CIRES, University of Colorado); Parthkumar Modi (Alabama Water Institute, Tuscaloosa, Alabama); Eric Small (Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado); Bill Szafranski (Lynker Corporation); Cameron Wobus (CK Blueshift, LLC) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is shifting Western US basins from snow-fed toward rain-fed systems, weakening the precision of water supply forecasts. We investigate the value of water markets in reducing economic damages from supply uncertainty. We produce hydrologic supply forecasts from data across 889 SNOTEL stations and show that forecast uncertainty is higher in rain-fed basins. We embed these empirical uncertainty measures into a water-trade model and find that when some production decisions are irreversible (e.g., planting in agriculture), and made before water availability is realized, trade helps offset losses from sub-optimal investments. We find that gains are 7\% larger in rain-fed basins on average, with offsetting effects increasing in both forecast bias and variance. As rising temperatures are expected to reduce the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, we project that water trade will become a more valuable mechanism for rationing water. |
| Keywords: | climate change, drought, forecast uncertainty, water trade |
| JEL: | D81 E27 F17 Q25 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp202601 |
| By: | Dikgang, Johane; Magambo, Isaiah; Bachu, Kiana; Kimani, Mumbi |
| Abstract: | This study assesses how pandemic-related job losses and social protection impacted food security in South Africa using five waves of data from the NIDS-CRAM survey of 794 individuals. Job loss increased food insecurity by 5.2% (14%), consistent across five methods and lasting for 12 months. COVID-19 grants, including the R350/month Social Relief of Distress grant, reduced food insecurity by 3.8% (10%). The link between employment and food security extends beyond income loss: job loss increased income decline by 8.7%, accounting for less than a third of the total food security effect. Grants mainly worked through non-income benefits, such as psychological support, better food planning, and logistics. The effects were larger for low-income, less-educated households, and families with children. Recommendations include increasing grant levels to 30-40% of median wages, extending the duration, reducing delays, and linking grants with employment services. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, Food Security, Unemployment, COVID-19, Causal Inference, Social Protection |
| JEL: | I15 I31 C21 C23 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1734 |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Makate, Clifton (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tione, Sarah E. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Reliable measurement of farm size is central to empirical research on agricultural structure, land inequality, and land use efficiency in developing countries. Most studies rely on single-round household survey data and implicitly assume that reported farm size is stable and accurately measured. This paper questions that assumption using balanced panel data from Ethiopia and Malawi. <p> We exploit within-household variation over time by comparing reported owned farm size in each survey round to the household-specific maximum observed across rounds, interpreted as an upper-envelope benchmark. We document large and widespread shortfalls from this benchmark that are frequently reversed across survey rounds, indicating episodic instability rather than monotonic landholding change. Instability is strongly associated with parcel attrition – captured by deviations from maximum plot counts and unmeasured parcels – while indicators of real landholding change explain little of the observed variation. <p> These findings imply that instability in reported owned farm size can materially affect measured farm size distributions, land inequality, and inferences about land markets and allocative efficiency. |
| Keywords: | farm size measurement; land ownership; panel survey data; land inequality; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | C23 D31 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2026_001 |
| By: | Murphy, Ryan; Gardner, Grant E.; Mark, Tyler; DeBolt, Seth |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, bourbon has not only reclaimed its spot as America's native spirit but also emerged as a global symbol of craftsmanship, authenticity, and agricultural heritage. From small craft distilleries to large-scale operations, the U.S. bourbon industry has experienced tremendous growth, driven by shifting consumer preferences, policy changes, and expanding export markets. This publication explores the significant trends shaping the bourbon sector today while highlighting the deep connection between bourbon and American agriculture—particularly the farmers who grow the grains. The University of Kentucky Extension publication Distillery Grain Demand in Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, and Ohio (AEC-103) further highlights the industry’s significance for grain producers by assessing the grain requirements of distilleries in Kentucky and neighboring states (Murphy et al. 2026). |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ukynea:396403 |
| By: | Murphy, Ryan; Gardner, Grant E.; Mark, Tyler; DeBolot, Seth |
| Abstract: | This article discusses the demand for grains by whiskey distilleries and estimates the amount of grain demanded in Kentucky and surrounding states. While the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) estimate grain use for food, it is difficult to assess the impact of distilleries on grain demand. The University of Kentucky Extension publication Bourbon’s Boom: Growth, Trends, and the Role of Agriculture (AEC-104) discusses the growth in bourbon (Murphy et al. 2026); however, this article delves deeper into demand and examines distilleries’ current grain requirements. This article aims to educate producers and the public on the demand for grain in Kentucky distilleries. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ukynea:396402 |
| By: | Danae Maniatis (SoGE - School of Geography and the Environment [Oxford] - University of Oxford); Kathryn J Jeffery (University of Stirling, UMR AMAP - Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | The Congo Basin, comprising the world's second-largest tropical rainforest, presents both critical environmental challenges and unique opportunities for sustainable development. This chapter evaluates key pathways for environmentally sustainable development in the region, with an emphasis on extractive industries, renewable energy, agroforestry, biodiversity conservation, ecotourism, and climate and carbon finance. Using regional indicators such as the Fragile States Index (FSI), Human Development Index (HDI), and Environmental Performance Index (EPI), the authors highlight the structural barriers—including weak governance, institutional fragility, and extreme poverty—that constrain the region's development trajectory. Despite these challenges, the Basin's ecological wealth offers potential for transformative interventions. Strategies such as Reduced-Impact Logging for Climate (RIL-C), sustainable mining practices, decentralized renewable energy systems, and integrated agroforestry models are analyzed for their capacity to reduce emissions, protect biodiversity, and enhance local livelihoods. The chapter further explores the potential of REDD+ and emerging carbon market frameworks to finance conservation and climate mitigation efforts. Emphasizing the role of participatory governance, indigenous knowledge systems, and scientific innovation, the chapter underscores the necessity of context-specific, cross-sectoral approaches to operationalize sustainability in one of the planet's most ecologically and geopolitically complex regions. |
| Keywords: | Reduced-impact logging, Sustainable development, Congo Basin forests, Environmental policy and governance, Climate and carbon finance, Agroforestry systems |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05572636 |
| By: | Marie-Noëlle Woillez (AFD - Agence française de développement); Thanh Nguyen-Xuan; Dzung Nguyen-Le (USTH - Department of Advanced Materials Science and Nanotechnology [Hanoi] - USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi); Quan Tran-Anh (HUMG - Hanoi University of Mining and Geology); Tung Nguyen-Duy (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï]); Thanh Ngo-Duc (USTH - Department of Advanced Materials Science and Nanotechnology [Hanoi] - USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | study investigates drought conditions in Vietnam and its seven sub-climatic regions using the Standardized Precipitation- Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPEI was derived from daily, high-resolution (10-km) precipitation and temperature products from the CMIP6-VN dataset, which statistically downscaled CMIP6 global models. Performance evaluation of 22 CMIP6-VN models confirmed their accuracy in representing precipitation and temperature characteristics for the reference period (1985–2014). Regarding the future period (2015–2099) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), significant warming is projected across Vietnam, while precipitation projections remain uncertain, with most areas anticipated to experience slightly increased rainfall. SPEI results indicate that precipitation significantly influences drought conditions more than temperature, accounting for approximately 70% of the SPEI trend under SSP5- 8.5, which consequently introduces substantial uncertainty in drought projections. Drought conditions under different global warming levels (GWLs) were investigated, showing that while drought may not occur more frequently at high GWLs, more extreme drought events are projected. Five models exhibiting the most pronounced increasing drought trends were further analyzed, revealing a deterioration of all drought characteristics, particularly in the Northwest, Northeast, and Central Highlands. Copula statistical analysis reveals that drought events with higher return periods tend to be more prolonged and severe in the future. |
| Keywords: | Drought, Statistical Downscaling, CMIP6, SSP scenarios, Vietnam, Climate Change Version |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05491362 |
| By: | Vanzetti, David |
| Abstract: | The age of free trade is over. That was the message given by President Trump’s 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs. Ostensibly, the tariffs were intended to rebalance the U.S. trade deficit, but the measures functioned largely as leverage for bilateral trade negotiations. Most partners sought exemptions or new deals, while China imposed reciprocal tariffs. These actions have reshaped trade flows, with implications for Australian exporters. This paper assesses these impacts using the GTAP computable general equilibrium trade model, applying tariff shocks derived from official U.S. Executive Orders. Three scenarios are examined: (i) Liberation Day tariffs, adjusted for numerous exemptions; (ii) Retaliation, where partners impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports; and (iii) Realignment, in which the United States scales back tariffs for most partners except China, which maintains higher protection. Preliminary results indicate that Australia loses from widespread retaliation but in other scenarios gains modestly in real GDP. Agricultural effects are mixed: wheat, coarse grains and cotton expand into markets vacated by U.S. exporters, while beef exports to the United States are reduced. Overall, the global realignment scenario—arguably the most likely— offers both risks and emerging opportunities for Australian agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare26:396225 |
| By: | Tashreef Muhammad; Tahsin Ahmed; Meherun Farzana; Md. Mahmudul Hasan; Abrar Eyasir; Md. Emon Khan; Mahafuzul Islam Shawon; Ferdous Mondol; Mahmudul Hasan; Muhammad Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | Accurate short-term forecasting of agricultural commodity prices is critical for food security planning and smallholder income stabilisation in developing economies, yet machine-learning-ready datasets for this purpose remain scarce in South Asia. This paper makes two contributions. First, we introduce AgriPriceBD, a benchmark dataset of 1, 779 daily retail mid-prices for five Bangladeshi commodities - garlic, chickpea, green chilli, cucumber, and sweet pumpkin - spanning July 2020 to June 2025, extracted from government reports via an LLM-assisted digitisation pipeline. Second, we evaluate seven forecasting approaches spanning classical models - na\"{i}ve persistence, SARIMA, and Prophet - and deep learning architectures - BiLSTM, Transformer, Time2Vec-enhanced Transformer, and Informer - with Diebold-Mariano statistical significance tests. Commodity price forecastability is fundamentally heterogeneous: na\"{i}ve persistence dominates on near-random-walk commodities. Time2Vec temporal encoding provides no statistically significant advantage over fixed sinusoidal encoding and causes catastrophic degradation on green chilli (+146.1% MAE, p |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.06227 |
| By: | Gaskin, Thomas; Demirel, Guven; Wolfram, Marie-Therese; Duncan, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally, economists model trade using gravity models, which rely on explicit covariates that might struggle to capture these subtler drivers of trade. In this work, we employ optimal transport and a deep neural network to learn a time-dependent cost function from data, without imposing a specific functional form. This approach consistently outperforms traditional gravity models in accuracy and has similar performance to three-way gravity models, while providing natural uncertainty quantification. Applying our framework to global food and agricultural trade, we show that low income countries experienced disproportionately higher increases in trade costs due to the war in Ukraine’s impact on wheat markets. We also analyse the effects of free-trade agreements and trade disputes with China, as well as Brexit’s impact on British trade with Europe, uncovering hidden patterns that trade volumes alone cannot reveal. |
| Keywords: | REF fund 2025/2026 |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2026–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137330 |
| By: | Forest Service; Bureau of Land Management |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this MOU is to outline cooperation between the Forest Service and the BLM for continued and effective coordination and cooperation in issuing a Grazing Action Plan, which will bring federal land grazing to the forefront and address the critical needs of grazing permittees. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:396400 |
| By: | Kenneth Houngbedji (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement); Marc Bouvier (Nitidæ, UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - UNC - Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie - UG - Université de Guyane - UA - Université des Antilles - UM - Université de Montpellier); Antoine Leblois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Jean-Sylvestre Makak (GEOCOM - Geospatial Company); Benoit Mertens (UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - UNC - Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie - UG - Université de Guyane - UA - Université des Antilles - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Forest management plans are central to regulations governing logging concessions in the Congo Basin, yet their long-term effectiveness remains uncertain. Here, we combine annual satellite-derived forest change data with administrative concession records and exploit variation in the timing of plan validation across five countries to assess how validation influences forest-cover dynamics from 2000 to 2020 using counterfactual impact-evaluation methods. We find that concessions with validated plans experience a gradual, sustained decline in forest loss, averaging 100 ± 44 hectares per year, equivalent to a 47% reduction relative to concessions operating without validated plans. Effects persist for up to 19 years and occur in concessions with and without independent third-party certification. These results indicate that accelerating the validation and implementation of forest management plans can substantially reduce forest disturbance in the Congo Basin. |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05571916 |
| By: | Brenøe, Anne (University of Zurich); Stearns, Jenna (University of California, Davis); Martin, Richard (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the only large-scale randomized controlled trial promoting prolonged exclusive breastfeeding, we study how the intervention affected child health and why. The intervention increased weight-for-age in infancy, with effects persisting through adolescence. We show that treated infants were breastfed more and received less water, juice, and other liquids, resulting in a more calorie-dense diet. A mediation analysis indicates that increased caloric intake explains a large share of the early weight gain, while reduced illness explains little. These findings suggest that, in this setting, the main benefits of breastfeeding promotion for physical growth came from improved nutrition. More broadly, the results highlight that the effects of breastfeeding promotion depend on the local alternatives to breast milk and may differ in settings where infant formula or other more nutritious substitutes are the main alternative. |
| Keywords: | breastfeeding, infant feeding, child health, the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT) |
| JEL: | I10 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18495 |
| By: | Sara Balestri (Dipartimento di Economia, Università di Perugia, Italy); Raul Caruso (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - European Center of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC), Catholic University ‘Our Lady of Good Counsel’, Tirana, Albania) |
| Abstract: | We analyse to what extent land-related institutional settings affect the likelihood of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa and whether this relationship is conditioned by climate variability. Using a country–year panel covering the period 1990–2024, we focus on the occurrence of communal violence and examine the role of legal transparency and predictable enforcement of laws. The empirical analysis relies on a panel probit model for binary outcomes, controlling for socio-economic characteristics, land-use patterns, demographic pressure, and conflict persistence. The results show that higher levels of legal transparency and more predictable enforcement are consistently associated with a significantly lower likelihood of communal violence. This relationship proves robust across alternative specifications and sample restrictions. To address potential endogeneity in institutional quality, we implement a set of complementary strategies to account for unobserved heterogeneity, while exploiting early post-independence institutional conditions to mitigate concerns related to reverse causality. These checks support the robustness of the baseline association. Climate variability does not emerge as an independent driver of communal violence. Instead, drought acts as a threat multiplier by conditionally weakening the conflict-mitigating effect of legal institutions. Interaction effects indicate that while improvements in institutional quality substantially reduce the probability of communal violence under normal climatic conditions, this stabilizing effect progressively diminishes as drought severity increases and becomes negligible under severe drought. Therefore, as drought severity increases, the mitigating role of institutions progressively weakens. Overall, the findings highlight the central role of legal transparency and predictable enforcement in managing land-related tensions, while showing that their effectiveness is contingent on environmental stress. |
| Keywords: | communal violence, land institutional settings, climate shock, conflicts, Africa |
| JEL: | D74 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0057 |
| By: | Karine L. Mahefarisoa (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Hajaniaina A. Ratsimbazafy (ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles = Free University of Brussels); Ellen Decaestecker (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Leo Delpy (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean Hugé (ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles = Free University of Brussels, Open University of the Netherlands [Heerlen], VUB - Vrije Universiteit Brussel [Bruxelles], UHasselt - Hasselt University); Nicolas Antoine-Moussiaux (Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire [Liège]); Raf Aerts (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) |
| Abstract: | Madagascar, a globally recognised biodiversity hotspot, faces escalating biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease risks. Weak response systems and fragmented governance further exacerbate these threats. This study identifies key conservation and health actors and analyses their connections to understand decision-making and information flow. The findings emphasise the need to integrate One Health into conservation strategies to address interconnected public health and biodiversity challenges. Following the Laumann-Marsden-Prensky framework, a social network analysis (SNA) survey was conducted between March 14 and June 24, 2022. The study involved 30 senior leaders (≥5 years experience) in biodiversity conservation and health in Madagascar. Key network metrics, indegree, outdegree, and eigenvector centrality, identified influential actors, while network density and centralisation assessed structural cohesion. Participants listed collaborators in conservation and health projects and funding sources. The strength of One Health integration and interaction was quantified. Among 287 identified actors, 54.4 % are international entities. SNA shows that foreign organisations dominate collaboration and funding networks in conservation and public health governance, while local government bodies have limited involvement. Only a few stakeholders have effectively integrated the One Health approach into their conservation and health governance practices. These findings highlight a reliance on international actors, primarily due to funding access, with limited local participation. While international support provides crucial resources, greater national and local leadership is essential for the sustainable implementation of One Health. This study provides insights to enhance local involvement in conservation governance. |
| Abstract: | Madagascar, reconnu mondialement comme un point chaud de biodiversité, fait face à une perte croissante de biodiversité ainsi qu'à des risques accrus de maladies zoonotiques. Des systèmes de réponse faibles et une gouvernance fragmentée aggravent encore ces menaces. Cette étude identifie les principaux acteurs de la conservation et de la santé et analyse leurs connexions afin de comprendre les processus de prise de décision et les flux d'information. Les résultats soulignent la nécessité d'intégrer l'approche One Health dans les stratégies de conservation afin de répondre aux défis interconnectés de la santé publique et de la biodiversité. En suivant le cadre de Laumann-Marsden-Prensky, une enquête d'analyse de réseau social (SNA) a été menée entre le 14 mars et le 24 juin 2022. L'étude a impliqué 30 dirigeants expérimentés (≥ 5 ans d'expérience) dans les domaines de la conservation de la biodiversité et de la santé à Madagascar. Des indicateurs clés du réseau — indegree, outdegree et centralité d'eigenvecteur — ont permis d'identifier les acteurs influents, tandis que la densité et la centralisation du réseau ont servi à évaluer la cohésion structurelle. Les participants ont listé leurs collaborateurs dans les projets de conservation et de santé ainsi que leurs sources de financement. Le niveau d'intégration et d'interaction de l'approche One Health a également été quantifié. Parmi les 287 acteurs identifiés, 54, 4 % sont des entités internationales. L'analyse de réseau social montre que les organisations étrangères dominent les réseaux de collaboration et de financement dans la gouvernance de la conservation et de la santé publique, tandis que les institutions gouvernementales locales sont peu impliquées. Seul un petit nombre d'acteurs a effectivement intégré l'approche One Health dans leurs pratiques de gouvernance de la conservation et de la santé. Ces résultats mettent en évidence une forte dépendance envers les acteurs internationaux, principalement en raison de leur accès aux financements, ainsi qu'une participation locale limitée. Bien que le soutien international fournisse des ressources essentielles, un leadership national et local plus important est indispensable pour assurer la mise en œuvre durable de l'approche One Health. Cette étude offre ainsi des pistes pour renforcer l'implication locale dans la gouvernance de la conservation. |
| Keywords: | Health system governance, Social network analysis, Cross-sector collaboration, Integration, Environmental governance, Stakeholder engagement, One health |
| Date: | 2025–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05125241 |