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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Tavneet Suri; Petar Madjarac; Robert D. van der Hilst |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity is an existential threat for Africa (a continent facing rapid population growth and dire climate impacts) and addressing it a global imperative. Over 30% of caloric intake comes from maize, but crop yields are low partly because high costs make synthetic fertilizers uneconomical. A field experiment with Kenyan smallholder farmers explores the promise of genetically modified (microbial) biofertilizers to deliver nitrogen and increase yields at affordable costs. We see significant increases in yields (up to 110% for some farmers) and lower environmental impact than synthetic products. This suggests that biofertilizers could dramatically improve food security and child nutrition in Africa. |
| JEL: | O13 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34858 |
| By: | Espinosa-Uquillas, Elizabeth; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Niles, Meredith |
| Abstract: | Despite cover crops been widely promoted for their on and off-farm benefits, their adoption is both low nationally and diminishing in some areas. Existing research has examined a suite of factors affecting the adoption of cover crops in the United States, yet understanding the role of multiple government programs and climate changes has not been fully investigated over time, especially across a national sample. Furthermore, the factors associated with cover crop disadoption have not yet been explored nationally. To fill these gaps in the literature, we combine multiple publicly available data sources to estimate the role of multiple government programs (i.e., crop insurance, state, conservation and working-lands programs) and weather and climate change conditions on county cover crop adoption and disadoption. First, we find that increasing crop insurance participation is associated with increasing cover crop adoption nationally and in the Midwest and Northeast, while increasing insurance premium subsidies are correlated with reduced cover crop adoption in the Midwest and increasing in the Southwest. Second, working-lands payments (including EQIP, CSP and commodity) are highly correlated with cover crop adoption in every region except the Northwest, although exclusively during the 2012-2017 period, when EQIP aggressively expanded cost-sharing cover crops. Third, cover crops might have been implemented as a climate-resilience strategy although constrained by a region’s particular agricultural system. For instance, increasing temperature variability is correlated with higher cover crop adoption in the Western regions, while water deficits are associated with more cover crops in the Midwest but lower cover crops in the Southeast. Finally, we quantify that 31% and 41% of counties had decreasing level of cover crops in 2017 and 2022, respectively, implying potential adoption saturation and concentration in fewer counties. Regionally, the probability of cover crop disadoption increases with land-retirement payments in the Northwest, insurance participation in the Southeast, and insurance subsidies in the Midwest, while it decreases with working-lands payments in the Midwest. We conclude that production risks from cover crop adoption could be potentially alleviated with the expansion of federal cost-sharing programs and crop insurance participation; yet the amount of premium subsidies should be assessed as possibly disincentivizing cover crops in the Midwest due to moral hazard triggers and risk-management redundancies under both practices. |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:76djb_v1 |
| By: | Pratt, Bryan; Paul, Laura; Bowman, Maria; Messer, Kent; Ferraro, Paul |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive research on cover crop use, little research has been done on the repeated use, or persistence, of cover crops in the crop production process. To examine the persistence of cover cropping, this report uses four panel data sources: (1) the U.S. Department of Agricultureʼs (USDAʼs) 2012, 2017, and 2022 Censuses of Agriculture; (2) crop acreage submitted by farmers through the USDA, Farm Service Agencyʼs Form 578 for crop years 2013−19; (3) an on-the-ground, in-person “windshield” survey by the Indiana Conservation Partnership for crop years 2014−19; and (4) the USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) Phase 2 from 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021. The percentage of land under cover crops differs by data sources, but overall, cover crop use has increased over time. However, in the majority of data sources, this increase over time masks a significant share of fields and operations reducing or disadopting cover crop use. Results also indicate the levels of cover crop use and its persistence are positively correlated across regions but do not substantially differ across crop rotation or when livestock are present on the operation. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:396224 |
| By: | Estep, Mary; Barnes, Tricia; Goings-Colwell, Cassandra; Murphy, Dena; Feather, Catherine; Gajnak, Tom; Miller, Noah |
| Abstract: | Report Summary: Foreign investors held an interest in over 46 million acres of U.S. agricultural land (forest land and farmland) as of December 31, 2024. This is an increase of over 1.3 million acres from the December 31, 2024 report which reflected data as of December 31, 2023 and represents 3.6 percent of all privately held agricultural land in the United States. These and other findings are based on information submitted to the U.S. Department of Agriculture in compliance with the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act of 1978. Forest land accounted for 47 percent of all reported foreign-held acreage, cropland for 29 percent, pasture and other agricultural land for 22 percent, and nonagricultural land for 2 percent. Foreign holdings of U.S. agricultural land increased modestly from 2012 through 2017, increasing an average of 0.6 million acres per year. Since 2017, foreign holdings have increased an average of over 2.4 million acres annually, ranging from 1.3 million acres to nearly 3.4 million acres per year. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:396222 |
| By: | Joiner, Emily (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Indirect land-use change (ILUC)—the market-mediated expansion of agricultural land that can occur when cropland is diverted to biofuel feedstocks—has potential to result in the release of large amounts of stored carbon, offsetting some or all of the climate benefits of biofuels. ILUC has been a source of debate in biofuels policy and life-cycle greenhouse gas accounting for nearly two decades. This brief reviews how economic models estimate ILUC and how policymakers incorporate those estimates in the United States, the European Union, and international aviation. We explain why projections vary across models, where disagreements remain, and how policy design can account for uncertainty.Biofuels are derived from biological material, such as crops, waste oils, and residues. They have the potential to reduce net GHG emissions relative to petroleum-based fuels because the carbon released when they are burned was recently absorbed by the feedstock and will be reabsorbed from the atmosphere if new feedstock is grown. For this reason, they are often viewed as a way to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy-duty transport.Whether biofuels reduce net emissions in practice depends on the consequences of producing and using them at scale relative to fossil-fuel baselines, including emissions from feedstock cultivation, refining, (LUC). An expansion of agricultural land use induced by increased biofuel demand has the potential to spur the conversion of forests, grasslands, and wetlands to cropland, thereby releasing large amounts of stored carbon.LUC could arise in two ways. Direct LUC is an expansion of cropland for feedstock production; such expansion can be directly observed and accounted for. For example, when a forest is cleared for a palm oil plantation, fuel produced from that plantation can be assigned direct LUC emissions. ILUC, by contrast, occurs through market-mediated responses. Increased demand for crops as feedstocks (versus food or animal feed) raises crop prices, which creates incentives to convert non-crop land to cropland. Natural areas may be converted directly to cropland, or land used for grazing livestock may be converted to cropland, pushing livestock production into natural areas. These responses occur globally, so they can induce land conversion far from where feedstocks are produced. For instance, if soybean oil is diverted from export markets to US fuel use, higher global prices for vegetable oil may induce expansion of palm oil production in Southeast Asia to replace soybean oil in food markets.That ILUC operates through global markets makes it difficult to attribute land-use emissions to biofuels, and researchers and policymakers have typically relied on models to simulate it. Searchinger et al. (2008) brought concerns about ILUC to prominence by predicting ILUC emissions from US corn ethanol production large enough to undo its carbon benefits relative to conventional fuels. In this comparison, timing matters: ILUC produces a large, immediate release of land carbon, but the emissions benefits from substituting corn ethanol for petroleum accrue over many years. In Searchinger et al. (2008), corn ethanol nearly doubles GHG emissions over the first 30 years, and the break-even point is reached only after about 167 years. Subsequent critiques questioned the assumptions underlying these large projections (Wang and Haq 2008; Sedjo et al. 2015). Since then, policymakers have relied on lower ILUC emissions values, reflecting alternative models and assumptions.ILUC predictions continue to be vigorously debated. Model results are highly sensitive to contested assumptions and modeling choices, and the past predictive performance of ILUC models has been difficult to validate empirically. These challenges—coupled with the potential significance of ILUC for assessing the climate effects of biofuels and influencing policy incentives and compliance obligations—have made the topic highly contentious.We begin by outlining how policymakers incorporate ILUC into regulatory frameworks in Section 2. Section 3 describes the economic models used to estimate ILUC, explaining why projections vary. Section 4 reviews the ILUC values adopted in policy and the disagreements surrounding them. Section 5 concludes with reflections on future directions for ILUC analysis and policy design. |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-02 |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Kurbanov, Zafar; Tadjiev, Abdusame; Dhehibi, Boubaker; Akramkhanov, Akmal |
| Abstract: | Agricultural sector in Uzbekistan is undergoing rapid modernization driven by institutional reforms and mounting pressure to ensure sustainable land and water resource use. This study investigates the adoption and impacts of four sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) promoted for sustainable intensification: crop rotation, manure application, drip irrigation, and laser levelling. Using nationally representative survey data from 1, 225 farms across four major regions (Andijan, Kashkadarya, Khorezm, and Samarkand) collected in 2024, we employ a multivariate probit model to analyze complex, inter-dependent adoption decisions and their determinants. Subsequently, we apply treatment-effects models to assess the impact of individual practices and selected bundles on three critical outcomes: farm revenue, an agronomic sustainability index, and the gender wage gap among seasonal workers. Our analysis reveals that SAP adoption patterns are highly practice-specific. Crucially, perceived profitability, benefits and challenges are strong predictors of uptake, while standard structural variables (education, farm size, and extension contact) are inconsistent determinants across practices. Modern technologies are more strongly linked to institutional arrangements, farm structure, and training than are traditional practices. Results on impact are nuanced: no single technology improves all three outcomes simultaneously. Drip irrigation emerges as the most promising individual practice, significantly raising both revenue and sustainability. In contrast, laser levelling shows no clear average economic gains. Importantly, SAP bundles consistently outperform single practices on sustainability and sometimes on revenue. Social impacts are mixed: crop rotation tends to widen, while the joint adoption of laser levelling and drip irrigation narrows, the gender wage gap. Overall, the findings underscore the necessity of practice-specific and portfolio-based policy support for sustainable agriculture in reforming transition economies. |
| Keywords: | Technology adoption, Irrigated farming systems, Multivariate probit, Treatment effects analysis |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:337498 |
| By: | Dominik Suri (University of Bonn); Jan Börner (jborner@uni-bonn.de); Zerihun Kebebew (Jimma University); Sebastian Kube (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Forest protection contributes to climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.Yet negative income shocks can induce local forest users to increase extraction in order to cope with economic hardship. We study how social norms shape collaborative forest management when communities face an exogenous income shock. We implement an incentivized framed field experiment with 162 smallholder farmers in rural Ethiopia using an interactive dynamic resource extraction game. Farmers individually decide how many trees to harvest from a community forest: harvested trees yield private income, whereas unharvested trees generate group benefits. They do so under different experimental treatments—either with or without i) the presence of a negative income shock and ii) a previous activation of social norms—allowing us to causally identify mechanisms shaping forest management. We find that the activation of social norms fosters fully sustainable resource management in the absence of an income shock. Moreover, a different norm emerges when the community encounters an income shock: now, harvesting more than can sustainably regrow is considered socially appropriate and harvesting behavior adjusts accordingly. Yet without norm activation, the negative income shock puts even more pressure on deforestation. Taken together, these findings suggest that policy-makers should work with local communities to develop complementary institutional mechanisms that sustain collective forest management in times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | Common-pool resources, forest commons, social norms, income shock, framed field experiment, community forest management, cooperation |
| JEL: | Q20 Q23 Q50 Q56 D70 D91 D64 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:393 |
| By: | Espinosa-Uquillas, Elizabeth; Kling, Matthew; Niles, Meredith |
| Abstract: | The heterogeneity of different farmland sizes has been overlooked in the climate adaptation literature, yet it is crucial for identifying effective policy interventions to achieve national-scale climate resilience. Using U.S. Agricultural Census data from 2012, 2017, and 2022 aggregated by farm size groupings within states, we compare the temporal changes in adoption of three water-related climate adaptation practices (cover crops, tile drainage, and irrigation) across small, medium and large farms, individually. Specifically, we provide estimates of the role of multiple government programs and climate changes in shaping heterogeneous climate adaptation behaviors across farm sizes. Applying multilevel models within a Bayesian framework, we show that temporal changes of government programs and climate conditions correlate with temporal changes in adoption differently across farm sizes. For small and medium farms, insurance participation associates positively with adoption of cover crops and irrigation. Among large farms, federal programs correlate negatively with irrigation, while state programs and insurance are positively associated with cover crops. These results suggest the opportunity to enhance cover crops among small and medium operations by improving the distribution of insurance and state programs, where small farms often have low participation. Alternatively, crop insurance, and not climate, might be the major driver of irrigation expansion among smaller farms as a way to increase productivity and reduce premium subsidies. Finally, small farms’ adoption of irrigation and tile drainage shows uncertain or negative correlations with changing and uncertain climate, implying that diseconomies of scale might be limiting their adoption; meanwhile, uncertainty of returns under climate changes is preventing farms of all sizes from growing cover crops, specifically in the West for large and medium farms, and the Eastern regions for small farms. We conclude that encouraging the adoption of water-related climate adaptation practices may require adjusting current federal and local programs toward individualized farm-size policies. |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h6zsp_v1 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Abstract: | The world urgently needs food systems that ensure access to nutritious food, promote healthy choices, and create economic opportunities for the poorest—many of whom rely on small-scale farming. Yet climate change, conflict, and pandemics have pushed millions into hunger, with 45 million children now suffering from severe malnutrition and 150 million at risk of long-term developmental challenges. Social protection programs can play a vital role in building more resilient, equitable food systems by supporting food and nutrition through tools like cash transfers, school feeding, and jobs programs. However, limited funding, tight timelines, and design gaps often hinder their integration. Tackling these barriers is essential to ending malnutrition and food insecurity. |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:207465 |
| By: | Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Kuhn, Lena; Eltazarov, Sarvarbek; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | The insurance market in Uzbekistan is characterized by its heavy focus of risk management on strategic crops like cotton and wheat and the very close coupling of insurance with agricultural loans. The majority of farmers who received a subsidized production credit from the agricultural bank Uzagrobank are insuring their crops to become eligible for the said credits, which are mainly provided by the state agricultural insurance company Uzagrosugurta. While the importance of this credit-bundled insurance product is undisputed, this close loan bundling has led to a condition where, to date, most Uzbek farmers perceive the insurance product only as a condition for credit access rather than accepting it as a risk management strategy. Several policy reforms (e.g. presidential decrees and development strategies) aimed at improving the functionality of the insurance product beyond its credit collateral function and making it suitable to manage climate and irrigation risks. However, most of these reforms to date require large-scale transformations and come with high implementation cost and risk. In the scope of this policy brief, we provide policy recommendations towards a sustainable implementation of efficient financial climate-risk management in Uzbek agriculture based on several years of research and implementing activities of IAMO in Central Asia. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:337497 |
| By: | Anderzén, Janica; Bliss, Sam; Schattman, Rachel E.; Azima, Stevens; Mitchell, Rebecca C; Merrill, Scott C.; Yerxa, Kathryn; Nowak, Sarah A.; Laurent, Jennifer; Niles, Meredith |
| Abstract: | Many food-insecure households in high-income countries produce some of their own food through gardening, hunting, fishing, foraging, or raising livestock—activities collectively referred to as home and wild food procurement (HWFP). This study aims to deepen understanding of the roles that diverse HWFP activities play within the broader set of strategies food-insecure households use to keep food on the table. We conducted interviews with 25 participants in two rural states in the northeastern United States, Maine and Vermont. On average, the study participants reported having engaged in 19 of a list of 41 coping behaviors, not including HWFP activities, in the last year. Overall, they described HWFP activities as socially legitimate food sources that provide multifaceted benefits beyond food. For these interviewees, HWFP can be an effective coping strategy for alleviating household food insecurity because it diversifies their food sources and allows for stockpiling non-market abundances. Yet, HWFP should not be mistaken for a coping strategy in the sense of an activity that households undertake only in response to hardship, because participants associated these activities with diverse, positive meanings such as joy, connection, and autonomy. The only negative aspects of HWFP that participants identified were challenges stemming from limited access to key resources needed for successful harvests, such as equipment, skills, and land access. We recommend policies and programs that ensure access to these prerequisites for HWFP success; people experiencing food insecurity should guide these efforts. |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jw8vb_v1 |
| By: | Dineva, Mariana; Wilkins, Emma; Green, Mark Alan (University of Liverpool); Gilthorpe, Mark S (University of Leeds); Johnstone, Alexandra (University of Aberdeen); Morris, Michelle |
| Abstract: | With increasing concerns around food sustainability, estimating the environmental footprint of diets is critical. Supermarket transaction data are becoming prominent as a valuable source of objective dietary purchase data. We developed a method to map environmental sustainability metrics to foods and beverages sold by a major UK supermarket, using sales data from the Yorkshire and the Humber region (2022). Products were mapped to global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGE) estimates for 45 commodities in four stages. Initially, products were grouped into categories and linked to commodities. Subsequent stages disaggregated high-complexity or high-sales categories into subcategories with similar ingredients, using retailer categorisations (Stage 2) and word searches within product descriptions (Stage 3), and finally refined categorisations to aid interpretability (Stage 4). The product with the highest sales in each subcategory was selected as an indicator product and mapped to commodities using data on ingredient proportions. Land Use and Water Use estimates were generated using the final mapping scheme. A look-up tool was produced linking categories to environmental sustainability metrics for use with other food product data. By Stage 4, 98·6% of >27, 000 products were mapped to GHGE, using 200 category/subcategory-based GHGE estimates. Disaggregation revealed significant variation in GHGE estimates: up to a three-fold difference between Stage 1 and 4 estimates for the same category, and up to a 30-fold difference between subcategories within the same category. Disaggregation of complex categories is important for accurate estimation of sustainability indices. Our sales-guided approach balances accuracy and efficiency when dealing with large supermarket data and could support a wide range of research into sustainable diets. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rxf9j_v1 |
| By: | Da Mata, Daniel (Sao Paulo School of Economics (FGV EESP)); Dotta, Mario (Dotta: Sao Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV EAESP)); Severnini, Edson (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Does industrial activity drive deforestation and land degradation, and can limited state capacity be overcome to decouple economic growth from environmental harm? We examine these questions in the context of slaughterhouse plant openings in Brazil from 1994 to 2019. Guided by a simple conceptual framework and using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we show that plant openings increase livestock production while reducing forest cover and degrading pastureland. However, following the introduction of legally enforceable, incentive-compatible agreements between slaughterhouses and federal prosecutors—which penalize purchases of livestock from illegally deforested areas but act as a green certification mechanism—plant openings increase productivity without driving deforestation. Our findings suggest that tying firm performance to environmental goals through market-aligned legal mechanisms can generate economic and environmental gains at low cost to the government. |
| Keywords: | industrial activity, slaughterhouses, deforestation, land degradation, state capacity, green certification |
| JEL: | O13 Q01 Q15 Q56 K32 P18 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18380 |
| By: | Miller, Noah J.; Winters-Michaud, Clayton P.; Isa, Bassmah |
| Abstract: | In 2022 foreign investors, including long-term leaseholders, held an interest in 43.4 million acres of U.S. agricultural land. This represents 3.4 percent of all privately held agricultural land and nearly 2 percent of all land in the United States. This report compares foreign-owned and long-term foreign-leased U.S. agricultural land held in 2022 using data collected through mandatory reporting requirements set forth in the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act of 1978 (AFIDA). Foreign-held, long-term leases (i.e., 10 years or more) accounted for roughly one-third (32.5 percent) of foreign-held U.S. agricultural land as of December 31, 2022, up from roughly 20 percent in 2017. This report also identifies important differences between foreign-owned and long-term foreign-leased agricultural land in the United States in terms of its use, location, size, and other characteristics. A much greater share of long-term foreign-leased agricultural land is associated with renewable energy development compared to foreign-owned land (85 percent versus 2 percent). A much smaller share of long-term foreign leaseholds (less than 10 percent) is associated with a change in the agricultural producer (operator) compared with foreign purchases of agricultural land. The findings in this report indicate that foreign leases of agricultural land are more likely to result in dual use (i.e., agriculture and renewable energy) thereby providing an additional income stream to owner-operators. The results also show that around 97 percent of foreign land leaseholders indicated they did not intend to take the land out of agricultural usage |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:396223 |
| By: | Ting Chen; Jiajia Gu; L. Rachel Ngai; Jin Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the uneven impacts of reducing mobility barriers arising from land market frictions by leveraging two major land reforms that strengthened land rental rights in China. We construct a novel county-level reform index by tracing the reforms’ spatial and temporal rollout. Combining this index with a large panel dataset, we show that, relative to men, the reforms facilitate rural women’s transition out of agriculture while reducing urban women’s employment and wage income. We embed the reform index in a two-sector model with household-level employment decisions. Interactions between land market frictions and gender roles in market and home production drive these uneven impacts. Counterfactual analyses suggest that alleviating these frictions substantially affects female labor allocation and agricultural productivity. |
| Keywords: | Land; Labor mobility; Household employment patterns; Structural transformation; Agricultural productivity gap |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/028 |
| By: | Parra, Algimiro Antonio Torres |
| Abstract: | Institutional food environments provide meals to large populations through settings such as healthcare systems, educational institutions, workplaces, and senior living facilities. These environments shape dietary exposure at scale, yet the organizational and structural determinants of nutritional quality in institutional meal provision are often treated as operational details rather than researchable systems variables. Two such determinants—food literacy and menu design—are frequently discussed in consumer-facing nutrition education or behavioral terms, but they also operate upstream through workforce knowledge, procurement practices, production capacity, and governance decisions. This paper develops a conceptual framework linking (1) organizational food literacy, (2) menu architecture, and (3) institutional constraints to nutritional quality in institutional food environments. Drawing on public health nutrition, food systems scholarship, organizational studies, and choice architecture research, the paper synthesizes existing evidence and proposes testable propositions for future empirical work. The framework emphasizes how organizational capacity, including training, standardization, and cross-functional coordination, mediates the translation of nutrition standards and policy goals into actual food offerings. Rather than providing clinical guidance or individual behavior interventions, this work focuses on structural mechanisms that can be evaluated using institution-relevant outcomes such as standards adherence, nutrient-dense option frequency, procurement quality, participation, and plate-waste patterns. By positioning food literacy and menu design as system-level variables, the paper supports interdisciplinary research agendas and practical policy discussions aimed at improving the nutritional quality of meals served in institutional settings. |
| Date: | 2026–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nw45z_v1 |
| By: | Ravi, S. C.; Kiran Kumara, TM; Kumar, Shiv; Damodaran, T.; Mishra, M.; Gupta, A. K.; Singh, Akath |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:396211 |
| By: | Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Pracek, Torin (Queen's University); Chen, Jianghua (Hefei University); Chen, Wen-hao (National Taipei University) |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on trade data, academic literature, government reports, and policy documents to contextualize historic trade dynamics and trace the buildup to recent disputes. Using a comparative framework, we analyze how Sino-U.S. and Sino-Canada relations have shaped and continue to shape agri-food trade flows. Our analysis reveals structural vulnerabilities in U.S. and Canadian agricultural exports to China, emphasizing how reliance on a narrow set of commodities exposes both countries to economic losses resulting from China’s trade policies. Simultaneously, China’s dependence on a limited number of suppliers for large volumes of key commodities makes it vulnerable to price volatility and supply uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | agri-trade, bilateral agreements, tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers |
| JEL: | D74 Q11 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18362 |
| By: | Wongpiyabovorn, Oranuch; Plastina, Alejandro |
| Abstract: | The goal of this policy brief is to assess the economic and environmental impacts of alternative policy designs for the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) to promote agricultural conservation practices in the presence of voluntary private carbon initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umcraf:396214 |
| By: | Julia Jadin; Florine Le Henaff |
| Abstract: | Dietary change is a low-cost and scalable strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the food system, yet little is known about which house holds emit most, who reduces emissions over time, and how. This paper com bines detailed scanner data from Worldpanel by Numerator’s Take Home data with product-level emissions from the SHARP-ID database to examine the level and evolution of dietary carbon footprints among GB households from 2017 to 2022. We find differences across household types. Higher footprints are associated with older, less-educated, or female main shoppers, as well as larger, predominantly male, or child-rearing households. These differences reflect both quantities purchased and the carbon intensity of food choices. Over time, households with initially high footprints—especially middle-aged, less-educated, and larger households—were most likely to reduce them. In contrast, households with children and predominantly male ones showed little adjustment. Among reducers, nearly all lowered food quantity, and a majority also reduced carbon intensity, often via substitutions within food groups (e.g. beef to chicken). These findings identify the groups driving emissions, those adjusting, and those requiring policy attention. Supporting lower-carbon sub stitutions and targeting high-emission groups could improve the effectiveness and equity of food-related climate policies. |
| Keywords: | dietary carbon footprint; household heterogeneity; scanner data; carbon intensity |
| JEL: | Q54 Q18 D12 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/403155 |
| By: | Ayse Sila Koc; Irfan Cercil |
| Abstract: | The rapid increase in climate change risks has given rise to multinational and country-level efforts to mitigate its effects. In recent decades, and particularly after the Paris Agreement in 2016, climate change policies (CCPs) have intensified across both advanced countries and emerging market economies. These developments have heightened transition risks stemming from the adaptation of green policies, with potential implications for international capital flows, most notably, foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper investigates the impact of country-specific CCPs on FDI flows using a panel of 40 advanced and EM economies over the period of 1990-2019, employing the local projections (LP) method. The results indicate that CCPs are significantly associated with a decline in both gross and net FDI inflows in EM economies, whereas the effects of CCPs on FDI flows in advanced economies are more muted and statistically insignificant. Further empirical analysis reveals no statistically robust relationship between CCPs and overall portfolio (equity and debt) flows. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the macro-financial consequences of CCPs and offer valuable insights for both policymakers and international investors. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Climate change policies, Emerging markets, Capital flows, Foreign direct investment, Local projections |
| JEL: | F21 F64 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2604 |
| By: | Rausch, Lisa; Reis, Tiago; Mazzetti, Cristiane; Barrozo, Marcos; Skidmore, Marin; Gibbs, Holly |
| Abstract: | For the last two decades, a widely adopted commitment by soybean traders to avoid sourcing from farms in the Brazilian Amazon with recent deforestation has contributed to reducing deforestation across the biome. Recently, legal and political challenges to this commitment have led to its likely demise. We review the evolution of the Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM) policy context and present estimates of the area of forest at risk with the end of the policy. Ending the ASM will lead to increased deforestation in the Amazon and could discourage the adoption of policies against deforestation by other private sector actors more broadly. |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jsk4z_v1 |
| By: | Rutledge, Zachariah; Win, Myat Thida |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midasp:396210 |
| By: | Louis-Antoine Saïsset (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | In order to answer this question, the chapter is organized in four parts: first, we expose our theoretical framework; second, we detail the qualitative methodology based on four case studies; third, we analyse these cases; and fourth, we synthetize and conclude. Theoretical framework: democratic and innovative governanceWe based our theoretical framework on the concepts of democracy, governance, and innovation in corporate governance, applied to cooperatives, more particularly in the agricultural sector. In the following pages, we will define and develop these concepts, showing that a few studies deal with them and their interactions, proposing a conceptual framework to deal with drivers of governance innovation in terms of democracy. Democracy and governance: from capitalistic firms to cooperativesCompany is an organization with many faces that has been approached in different ways. From the neoclassical conception, according to which the company was considered as a "black box", to the company seen as a system, it is still difficult to grasp its complex reality (Tosi, 2009). Organization theory studies all types of organizations with very diverse points of view, as underlined by Tosi ( 2009): rational/natural models, closed/open system approaches, and considering single-or double-way relationships between environment and structure.According to Pfeffer (1991), this research field frequently took the individual and its behaviour as the unique unit of analysis and did not really consider social structure as relevant, denying the effects of social and mutual interactions among individuals on the firm's management. On the contrary, for Pfeffer (1991, p 801), "organizations are social settings". Social relations are therefore essential and can influence the firm's performance. Some authors went further and considered organization as an open system model where structure and environment are linked, sometimes following an interactive process, dealing with institutions and ecology, and leading to open system natural models (Tosi, 2009).In this perspective, the pervasive power of shareholders, stressed by Jensen and Meckling (1976), is counterbalanced or, at least, influenced by the open system of interactions between internal and external stakeholders, taking into account the commitment to society of the firm, analysed by the stakeholder theory (ST; Freeman, 1984). Democracy is also more concerned, directly or indirectly, considering the firm as an institution where democracy gains ground thanks to increasing openness, activist shareholders (Gomez, 2001) and citizen requirements (Grandori, 2017). This phenomenon led Andreani (1994, p 184) to state, "it is much more difficult to initiate democracy in a party than in a firm". In fact, behind stakeholder and democratic issues, governance is at the heart of operations.Democratic governance (Cornforth, 2004) concerns the essence of agricultural cooperatives as social economy organizations. Since their origin, they have been |
| Date: | 2026–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05525593 |
| By: | Aoki-Beattie, Yu (University of Aberdeen & IZA); Arulampalam, Wiji (University of Warwick, CAGE & IZA); Lloyd, Neil (University of St Andrews); Mathew, Sushil (Imperial College London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the causal effect of exposure to fast-food outlets on adolescent z-BMI using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. We develop a novel approach to modelling persistence in adolescent BMI by clustering early childhood BMI trajectories, capturing biologically and behaviourally persistent obesity risk profiles. Including these profiles in the model allows us to separate baseline susceptibility from contemporaneous environmental effects. For identification, we exploit the near-universal transition from primary to secondary school in Great Britain, which creates plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to fast-food outlets around schools. Using this variation, we find that adolescents with at least one major-brand outlet within 400 metres of their school have, on average, a 0.158 standard-deviation higher z-BMI. Effects decline at larger distances, are limited around the home, and do not extend to other food outlets. |
| Keywords: | Adolescent obesity, Body mass index, Fast food, School food environment JEL Classification: I12, I18, L83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:791 |
| By: | Kumar, Suresh; Sanwal, S. K.; Kandpal, Ankita; Kumar, Arvind; Kulshreshtha, N.; Yadav, R. K. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:396198 |
| By: | Michael K. Adjemian; A. Ford Ramsey |
| Abstract: | USDA designed the Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) program to help producers insure against declining prices for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and swine. Prices in derivatives markets determine program indemnities, making LRP policies similar to put options. Beginning in 2019, USDA made several changes to the program to encourage producer takeup, including increased premium subsidies. We introduce a theoretical model to show that subsidizing LRP premiums invites producers to “subsidy harvest, ” i.e. extract the subsidy as an arbitrage by simultaneously taking an offsetting position in the options market—potentially removing the downside protection the program was intended to provide. The subsidy harvest is a pure rent and costlier than a direct payment because it requires administrative oversight and federally-subsidized delivery through approved insurance providers. According to the model, the government’s premium subsidy leads producers to favor LRP-oriented strategies over market options alone, while their choice to offset actual risk protection using options depends on individual risk tolerance and wealth objectives. |
| JEL: | Q0 Q02 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34887 |
| By: | Katia Jazmín Romero-Bautista (ColPos - Colegio de Postgraduados); David Jesús Palma López (ColPos - Colegio de Postgraduados); César Jesús Vázquez Navarrete (ColPos - Colegio de Postgraduados); José Jesús Obrador Olán (ColPos - Colegio de Postgraduados); Winston Vlaminck (PalmElit); Arnulfo Aldrete (ColPos - Colegio de Postgraduados); Laurene Feintrenie (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Objective: To evaluate the physical and chemical properties of waste from the oil palm industry (empty fruit bunches and palm kernel shell charcoal), from the forestry industry (Cedrela odorata sawdust and Eucalyptus spp. bark), and from the agroindustry (sugarcane bagasse, cocoa pod husk, and coconut fiber), in order to determine their potential as components of regional substrates. Design/Methodology/Approach: A completely randomized design was used for the experiment. Seven regional substrate treatments with three replicates were used to evaluate the response variables. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's multiple comparison test (p≤0.05) were used to analyze the results in the InfoStat v. 2020 statistical software. Results: Regional substrates had similar characteristics —and even a higher concentration of nutrients— than the commercial substrate, which was mainly based on sphagnum peat moss. Substrate S5 —eucalyptus (Eucalyptus spp.) bark:cocoa pod husk:cedar (Cedrela odorata) sawdust (3:1:1)— had more variables that were statistically similar to the commercial substrate, while S4 —cocoa pod husk:cedar sawdust:palm kernel shell charcoal (3:1.5:0.5)— stood out for its higher concentration of micronutrients. The results identified sustainable and accessible options that meet the recommended criteria for plant production in containers. Study Limitations/Implications: This study only took into account the characterization of regional waste and substrates; consequently, its effects on future plant production should be evaluated. Findings/Conclusions: The substrates were sustainable and affordable and met the recommended criteria for the plant production in containers. |
| Keywords: | recycling, nursery, physical and chemical properties, sphagnum peat moss, organic waste, Tabasco, sciure, récipient de culture, coque de cacao, charbon de bois, propriété physicochimique, Eucalyptus, déchet organique, production forestière, utilisation des déchets, déchet d'exploitation forestière, bagasse |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05506367 |
| By: | Sara Ait Abderrahman (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Fatima Zohra Alaoui Sossi (University Ibn Toufail = Université Ibn-Tufayl = جامعة ابن طفيل) |
| Abstract: | Abstract This article analyzes how the integration of sustainability into a territorial brand influences citizens' perceptions and eco-friendly behaviors. Based on a literature review, the study introduces the concept of a "sustainable territorial brand" that merges place branding and sustainable development. A quantitative survey conducted among 120 residents of Rabat, designated a "green city" since 2010, shows that the sustainable territorial brand significantly strengthens citizens' commitment, values, trust, and attitudes. The main finding indicates that commitment is the strongest determinant of eco-responsible behavior, whereas trust has no direct effect. These results suggest that sustainable territorial branding can be an effective lever for mobilizing citizens toward environmental transition. Recommendations include reinforcing transparency and visibility around sustainability initiatives, encouraging citizen participation in local environmental actions, and designing communication strategies that highlight shared values and collective benefits. Déclaration de divulgation : L'auteur n'a pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Conflit d'intérêts : L'auteur ne signale aucun conflit d'intérêts. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable territorial brand brand image civic commitment trust values attitude eco-responsible behavior sustainability territorial branding Rabat, Sustainable territorial brand, brand image, civic commitment, trust, values, attitude, eco-responsible behavior, sustainability, territorial branding, Rabat |
| Date: | 2025–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05415647 |
| By: | Papanicolas, Irene; Wouters, Olivier J.; Sawaya, Tania; Han, Jihye; Wei, Jinru; Naci, Huseyin |
| Abstract: | Factors influencing the timing of regulatory submission for new drugs across countries are poorly understood. We identified all new drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or European Medicines Agency (EMA) during the period 2014–18 and tracked their regulatory submissions to the US, the European Union, Canada, Japan, and Australia through 2022. We assessed whether disease area, orphan status, therapeutic value, market size, and launch price were associated with submission delays. The FDA received the highest proportion of first submissions (70 percent). Median submission delays ranged from zero months (FDA) to 18.5 months (Australia). The range of median regulatory review times was small (9.2–14.1 months) compared with the range of median submission delays. Drugs with moderate-to-high therapeutic value were associated with a six-month earlier submission time compared to drugs with low therapeutic value, on average. Higher-price drugs were associated with earlier submission, on average. Overall, cross-national differences in drug availability largely reflected differences in submission, not regulatory review, times. Although the US had greater and faster availability of novel therapeutics, the difference was smaller for drugs that offered moderate-to-high therapeutic value. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137084 |
| By: | Scott R. Baker; Nicholas Bloom; Stephanie G. Johnson; Jana Obradović |
| Abstract: | Conducting a new survey on the Nielsen Consumer panel we examine the impact of working from home (WFH) on shopping, finding three key results. First, WFH changed shopping modes, increasing online shopping and the fraction of trips to stores on weekdays. Second, WFH increased total spending through increased product quantity and range, tilting expenditure towards food and general merchandise and away from health and beauty products. Finally, WFH increased prices paid by shoppers and lowered price elasticities due to a move towards higher-cost products and lower deal usage. The change in prices paid is concentrated among married households, driven by a redistribution of shopping responsibility within the household, especially when the new remote worker is male. We find that remote workers engage in more shopping trips but fewer minutes of shopping. Our results suggest that shifting to remote work increases prices paid for groceries by about 1%, highlighting how WFH is impacting households, retail and inflation. |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34883 |
| By: | Robert Reinhardt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan African cities are among the fastest growing in the world but face significant climatic risks. This study investigates how the four most important weather shocks (floods, heat waves, drought, and storms) have shaped the physical expansion of 5, 721 cities in the region between 2000 and 2019. Using high-resolution remote sensing data combined with a panel of weather shocks observed over time, we find that floods, especially, reduce urban growth by 3-9%, most notably in western Africa. The effects are substantially amplified when floods follow heat waves, a common cooccurring combination. Droughts, when considered in the surrounding areas of cities, are associated with a 3% growth in urban areas. However, inverse effects are observed when treatment history is taken into account. Storms appear to accelerate the growth of wealthier towns, although the evidence is limited. Heatwaves alone show no clear effect. Our findings emphasize the need for integrated flood adaptation policies that take common co-occurring hazards equally into account. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of considering both the historical context and the spatial dimension of the shock in empirical work. |
| Keywords: | Development, Urban Growth, Resilience, Climate Change |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-05510186 |
| By: | Malthouse, Eugene (Department of Psychology, University of Warwick); Pilgrim, Charlie (University College London); Sgroi, Daniel (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); others* and Thomas Hills (Department of Psychology, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Collective action problems emerge when individual incentives and group interests are misaligned, as in the case of climate change Individuals involved in collective action problems are often considered to have two options : contribute towards a public solution or free-ride. But they might also choose a third option of investing in a private solution such as local climate change adaptation. Here we introduce a collective action game featuring wealth inequality caused by luck or merit and both public and private solutions with participants from 34 countries. We show that the joint existence of wealth inequality and private solutions has a consistent effect across countries: participants endowed with higher income choose the private solution almost twice as often as those endowed with lower income ; and this finding cannot be explained by different sources of wealth (luck vs. merit) or by cultural or economic factors. We also show that preferences for private solutions undermine support for public solutions, resulting in wealth inequality increasing in every country. In contrast, we identify two universal pathways to successful public solution provision: early contributions to public solutions and conditional cooperation. Our findings highlight the ubiquity of the ‘private solution problem’ and its potential consequences for global collective action problems. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1600 |
| By: | Robert Reinhardt (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéo-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan African cities are among the fastest growing in the world but face significant climatic risks. This study investigates how the four most important weather shocks (floods, heat waves, drought, and storms) have shaped the physical expansion of 5, 721 cities in the region between 2000 and 2019. Using high-resolution remote sensing data combined with a panel of weather shocks observed over time, we find that floods, especially, reduce urban growth by 3-9%, most notably in western Africa. The effects are substantially amplified when floods follow heat waves, a common cooccurring combination. Droughts, when considered in the surrounding areas of cities, are associated with a 3% growth in urban areas. However, inverse effects are observed when treatment history is taken into account. Storms appear to accelerate the growth of wealthier towns, although the evidence is limited. Heatwaves alone show no clear effect. Our findings emphasize the need for integrated flood adaptation policies that take common co-occurring hazards equally into account. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of considering both the historical context and the spatial dimension of the shock in empirical work |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Resilience; Urban growth; development |
| JEL: | P25 Q54 O44 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:26004 |
| By: | Hamidou Diallo (Université de Kindia); Mamadou Saidou Diallo (Université de Kindia) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether large mining commitments can reshape macroeconomic exposure to climate shocks before extraction begins. Focusing on Guinea—a highly rainfall-dependent economy—and the Simandou iron ore project, we test whether the sensitivity of growth to rainfall variability changes after a discrete commitment regime associated with major legal and contractual milestones. Using annual data and interaction specifications with Newey–West HAC inference, we find a pronounced regime shift: rainfall shocks are not precisely associated with GDP growth in the pre-commitment period, but become economically large and statistically meaningful after commitment. In the preferred specification with macro controls, a one–standard-deviation rainfall shock reduces real GDP growth by about 0.54 percentage points in the post-commitment regime, implying that rainfall variability explains a nontrivial share of observed growth volatility. Sectoral results indicate that amplification is not cleanly concentrated in agricultural growth; instead, post-commitment rainfall shocks are associated with a positive and significant response in services, consistent with altered co-movement and demand spillovers under changing sectoral composition. Complementary dynamic diagnostics and counterfactual simulations reinforce the timing and magnitude of this amplification. Overall, the findings suggest that extractive commitment can endogenously increase climate vulnerability by reshaping economic structure and shock propagation—even in the absence of mining production or resource revenues—highlighting the importance of aligning extractive planning with climate resilience and agricultural buffering capacity during pre-production phases. |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse si de grands engagements miniers peuvent modifier l'exposition macroéconomique aux chocs climatiques avant le début de l'extraction. En se concentrant sur la Guinée, économie fortement dépendante des précipitations, et sur le projet de Simandou, nous examinons si la sensibilité de la croissance à la variabilité pluviométrique évolue après un régime d'engagement lié à des jalons juridiques et contractuels majeurs. À partir de données annuelles et de modèles à interactions estimés avec des erreurs HAC de Newey–West, nous identifions un changement de régime marqué : les chocs pluviométriques deviennent économiquement significatifs et statistiquement pertinents après l'engagement. Dans la spécification privilégiée, un choc d'un écart-type réduit la croissance réelle du PIB d'environ 0, 54 point de pourcentage dans la période post-engagement. Les résultats sectoriels suggèrent que cette amplification ne se limite pas à l'agriculture, mais s'accompagne d'une réponse positive du secteur des services, traduisant une recomposition sectorielle et des effets de propagation. Ces résultats indiquent que les engagements extractifs peuvent accroître la vulnérabilité climatique en modifiant la structure économique, même en l'absence de production minière, soulignant la nécessité d'intégrer la résilience climatique dès les phases pré-productives. |
| Keywords: | Guinea, macroeconomic volatility, structural change, mining commitment, rainfall variability, climate shocks, Chocs climatiques, Guinée, vulnérabilité, changement structurel, engagement minier, précipitations, Simandou |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05462959 |
| By: | Himanshu Jaiswal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); A. Ganesh-Kumar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the economic implications of recent US tariff escalations, centered on the "7th and 27th August Tariff Shock", and examines India's strategic options in responding through unilateral reforms and prospective bilateral trade agreements with the United States. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, the paper simulates ten scenarios encompassing tariff shocks, India's unilateral tariff cuts of different intensity, and various designs of an India-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The results reveal that while unilateral tariff reductions yield moderate gains by improving input efficiency and competitiveness, the most substantial increases in India's GDP and welfare occur under reciprocal liberalization with the US. The Full FTA scenario delivers the highest overall benefits, driven by strong expansion in manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and technology-intensive sectors. However, agricultural liberalization introduces volatility and welfare losses, underscoring the sector's political and economic sensitivity. A selective FTA excluding agriculture emerges as an optimal pathway-achieving welfare and output gains comparable to a full and comprehensive FTA while safeguarding India's rural economy. |
| Keywords: | Trade War, IND-US Trade Agreement, Free Trade Agreement, Tariff Liberalization, CGE Analysis |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-024 |
| By: | Robinson, Abbie; Thiede, Brian C. (The Pennsylvania State University) |
| Abstract: | The social costs of climate change are of global interest, as vulnerable populations face new or heighted environmental stressors. Previous research has documented many social consequences of environmental change, but several important outcomes, including child marriage, remain underexplored. We address one of these gaps by examining the relationship between climate shocks and early marriage in Mali, a country where weather extremes are common and rates of child marriage are high. We draw on three decades of marriage records (1986-2016) from the Demographic Health Surveys (n=117, 170 person-years), combined with high-resolution climate data. We measure overall climate impacts on early marriage and evaluate spatial differences across rural and urban areas, northern and southern Mali, and environmental conditions. Across the full sample, cooler than average temperatures reduce the probability of child marriage, while precipitation shocks show no statistically meaningful effect. However, the effects of climate conditions vary spatially. Linear models show that the marginal effect of very high rainfall increases child marriage for girls living in urban areas and northern Mali. In addition, exposure to very cold and very dry conditions predicts marriage before age 18. Overall, our findings point to meaningful but complex relationships between climate variability and child marriage, in which precipitation and temperature exposures can increase or decrease marriage risks, underscoring the need for more research on understudied populations and spaces affected by climate change. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vz54m_v1 |
| By: | Lukas Pohn; Günther G. Schulze |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of access to clean water sources on educational outcomes in Indonesia. Using the longitudinal Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) panel dataset, which follows the same individuals from 1993 to 2014, and applying household fixed effects allows us to identify the causal effect of access to clean water at different childhood stages on children’s educational performance. We find that lifetime and early childhood access increases strongly the likelihood of completing junior and senior secondary school; later-gained access has no discernible effect on school performance. Our results underscore the need to provide access to clean water very early on. |
| Keywords: | access to tap water, access to improved water, educational outcomes, Indonesia |
| JEL: | I25 O15 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12475 |
| By: | Jennifer Cohen; Yana Rodgers |
| Abstract: | Background. Low earnings are associated with household insecurity. Direct Support Professionals (DSPs) provide support for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities, typically for wages close to state minimums, and may experience insecurity. Objective. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of food and housing insecurity among DSPs. Methods. We conducted a statewide, cross-sectional survey of DSPs in New York State (2022-2023). Measures included detailed questions about food and housing insecurity. We used chi-square analyses and logistic regressions to examine relationships between insecurity and demographic characteristics as proxies for social determinants of health. A total of 4, 503 DSPs responded to the survey. The analytic sample contained 2, 766 respondents with complete data for all relevant variables. Results. Overall, 62.6% experienced food and/or housing insecurity, with over half of those respondents experiencing both. Insecurity was highest among DSPs with a disability (76.2%), DSPs of color (75.7%), and those with lower income (72.4%), but over 50% of DSPs across demographic groups experienced insecurity. Conclusions. The widespread insecurity this study demonstrates is an occupational hazard that reduces worker welfare. At the macro-level, household insecurity is a critical threat to the stability of the care and support delivery system. The human services sector is projected to grow rapidly in the future. If growth continues along low wage lines, it implies an equally rapid expansion of worker insecurity. Government action to raise pay and interventions that enhance food and housing security are needed to support workers in the care delivery system for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.20356 |
| By: | Shahroo Malik; Harald Oberhofer; Jordi Paniagua |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how incorporating the informal economy influences the estimated benefits of international trade liberalization. Using a structural gravity framework, we quantify the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) while explicitly accounting for the presence of shadow (informal) economic activity among trading partners. Specifically, we assess the expected welfare gains from the recently concluded EU–India FTA under a counterfactual scenario in which the informal agricultural sector is integrated into the formal economy. |
| Keywords: | international trade, FTAs, informal/shadow economy, agriculture , structural gravityv |
| JEL: | E26 F13 F14 F17 Q12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12509 |
| By: | Luca Congiu (University of Insubria; CEIS, University of Rome “Tor Vergataâ€); Manuela Coromaldi (Department of Economics, University of Rome Niccolò Cusano); Alessio D’Amato (University of Napoli Parthenope; Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies (SEEDS)); Loredana Mirra (University of Rome “Tor Vergataâ€); Andrea Rampa (University of Rome “Tor Vergata†; Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies (SEEDS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of Italian attitudes towards climate change and climate policies based on a comprehensive survey of 5, 637 respondents. The study investigates the potential drivers of public support for various climate policies, including carbon taxes, product bans, and subsidies for green technologies, in light of public resistance observed in other countries. We use ordered probit models to address support for specific policy types and a multivariate probit model to explore the interdependencies across public opinions on taxes, bans, and subsidies. Our findings indicate that attitudes toward climate policy are primarily shaped by a combination of individual characteristics —such as political affiliation, climate change awareness, and personal intentions — and, to a lesser extent, by the respondents’ employment sector. We find that older individuals, those with left-leaning political views, and those with higher climate engagement are consistently more likely to support a broad range of climate policies. Conversely, individuals who deny climate change and those working in hard-to-abate industries show a certain opposition. The analysis also strongly highlights the importance of social equity, as concern about inequality is positively correlated with support to subsidies, while concerns about impacts on personal wage and wealth appear to reduce, in several cases, support to climate policies. Our multivariate analysis also reveals a high correlation across different policy types support, suggesting an underlying, unified view in favour (or against) climate action. Similarly to Douenne and Fabre (2022), our results highlight the importance of designing policies that are not only economically sound but also address social equity concerns, such as through targeted revenue recycling, to enhance public acceptability and mitigate potential resistance. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0426 |
| By: | Dario Bonciani; Riccardo M. Masolo; Silvia Sarpietro |
| Abstract: | Food prices are salient for households’ inflation perceptions and expectations at both the micro and macro levels. UK survey data indicate over 60% of households report food prices as very important for perceived inflation. These households exhibit a stronger correlation between perceived and expected inflation, reflecting backward-looking expectations. An SVAR with aggregate data shows food-price shocks generate larger and more persistent movements in expectations than “representative” inflation shocks. Finally, embedding behavioural expectations in a New Keynesian model, we find that, following a food-price shock, welfare losses are mitigated when monetary policy responds to households’ inflation expectations, even if they overreact. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Expectations; Inflation Perceptions; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | D10 D84 E31 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp274 |
| By: | Puvaneyshwaran, David; Logie, Carmen H.; Van Borek, Sarah; Abrams, Amber; Grootboom, Lauren; MacKenzie, Frannie; Taing, Lina; Perez-Brumer, Amaya; Gittings, Lesley |
| Abstract: | Water justice is the equitable, reliable, and safe access to clean water and sanitation and meaningful community inclusion in water governance, which is constrained by multiple social inequities. Financial (housing) and social inequities such as gender inequitable norms and gender-based violence, land insecurity, racial discrimination, and sexuality diversity (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer [LGBTQ+]) exclusion perpetuate unequal access to water and sanitation for historically marginalized populations. This highlights the need for an intersectional approach to building alliances to advance water justice across diverse social movements. In Cape Town, South Africa, legacies of colonialism and apartheid continue to shape spatial and infrastructural inequalities, especially in backyards. In response, we co-developed the “Water Justice Alliance-Building Toolkit” through a community-engaged process with activists from five intersecting movements: water justice, women’s rights, housing rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and racial justice. The participatory co-production process involved filmed walk-along interviews, focus groups, arts-based workshops, and community dialogue, culminating in modular tools designed to support intersectional education, alliance-building, and advocacy. In this article, we describe the toolkit’s development, its components, and an accompanying documentary, “Its Ebbs and Flows, ” which centers lived experiences of water injustice through visuals and multilingual narration. Toolkit activities, including discussion guides, artmaking, song-making, and role-play, facilitate inclusive dialogue. We conclude with implications for practice and policy, highlighting how participatory, arts-based approaches can foster more responsive health promotion strategies. By validating community knowledge and creative expression, this toolkit expands on whose expertise counts to guide a just transition and offers replicable templates for promoting health equity in climate-vulnerable settings. |
| Keywords: | indigenous movements; cClimate resilience; collaborative governance; community-based research; health equity; intersectionality; just transition; participatory arts-based methods; water justice |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137430 |
| By: | Yilin Hou; Michael Kumhof; Lei Shao |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an analytical framework for examining land taxation in the context of contemporary urban economies. We dissect the China case for simulation, comparing two model-based scenarios where revenue losses from consumption taxes are replaced by higher income taxes and land taxes. We calibrate the model to year-2015 data and find that higher income taxes cause large losses in output and income, while higher land taxes lead to substantive gains that increase with land share in net wealth. This paper offers empirical explorations in revitalizing the land tax, with simulation results at a large country level for generalization. |
| Keywords: | land value tax, consumption tax, capital income tax, labor income tax, balanced budget |
| JEL: | E62 H21 H61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12476 |
| By: | Adam, Antonis; Tsarsitalidou, Sofia |
| Abstract: | We argue that when terms‐of‐trade (ToT) shocks reduce resource rents, autocrats lose the fiscal capacity to sustain loyalty through patronage and increasingly rely on electoral manipulation as a survival strategy. We present a simple model in which rents finance patronage in normal times, while adverse shocks reduce the effectiveness of loyalty‐buying and induce substitution toward electoral manipulation. We test these implications using a panel of 114 autocracies from 1980 to 2021. Shocks are defined as ToT declines larger than 10%, and their impact is estimated on V‐Dem's Clean Elections Index using a difference‐in‐differences design with country and year fixed effects. Results show that negative trade shocks are associated with worse electoral conditions, especially in resource‐rich regimes, consistent with a shift from patronage to manipulation. These findings highlight how volatility in global markets can shape electoral strategies and authoritarian control. |
| Keywords: | autocracy; resource shocks; autocratic elections; electoral fraud |
| JEL: | D72 D73 O13 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137469 |
| By: | Thobe, Petra; Chibanda, Craig; Boimah, Mavis; Banhazi, Thomas |
| Abstract: | There is a general consensus that improved animal welfare (AW) benefits both farmed animals and humans. However, the types of animal welfare measures that can be implemented at different stages of the value chain vary considerably. In order to reliably assess their socio-economic and environmental impacts, an appropriate dataset is essential. This study aims to report on the process of data collection for the assessment of animal welfare strategies in the broiler and pig production chains. Therefore, this study details the identification and validation of indicators, the development and validation of questionnaires, and the data collection process on different stages of the production chain. The study contributes to the debate on how to combine data from different sources to obtain a reliable dataset. The data collection strategy is illustrated by an intervention study on how weight sensors in pig fattening can alert possible diseases and avoid additional costs. |
| Keywords: | Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae25:396213 |
| By: | Sansia Blackmore (African Health Policy Alliance); Renee van Eyden (Professor of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | Aiming to contribute to the literature on tobacco-harm reduction, this study estimates cross-price elasticities to explore the extent to which excise taxes may, through relative-price effects, induce substitution away from cigarettes towards lower-harm non-combustible alternatives, that is, towards e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs). Using data from 33 countries for the period 2018 to 2024, the novel contribution of the study is in its representativity of many world regions in various stages of development, and the inclusion of both the e-cigarette and HTP markets to determine potential substitutability or complementarity. The cross-price elasticity estimates suggest that a rise in cigarette prices may induce a shift from cigarette use towards e-cigarette and HTP use, which would support harm reduction. A price increase in the HTP market may encourage substitution towards cigarette use but has no effect on the e-cigarette market. Changes in the price of e-cigarettes do not induce consumption shifts in the cigarette or HTP markets. Notably, societies' degree of health and harm awareness is significantly and negatively associated with cigarette and HTP sales. Hence, harm-differentiated excise taxes are proposed to catalyse harm-reducing substitutions through two potential conduits, first through price-aware consumers' response to changes in relative affordability and second, through health-conscious consumers' response to the differential harm signals. |
| JEL: | H30 H23 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202606 |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Michael Haupert (UW-La Crosse - University of Wisconsin-La Crosse) |
| Keywords: | R58, R11, O18, N90, N10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05511261 |