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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Robert Huang; Matthew E. Kahn |
| Abstract: | Long-run studies of agricultural productivity use balanced county-level panel data to document slow adaptation to climate change in U.S. agriculture. We revisit this treatment-effect puzzle using a selection model that incorporates the optimizing behavior of heterogeneous farmers. Using data from 1980 to 2020, we document three dynamic selection effects. First, counties that completely exit farming alter the composition of the balanced panel sample. Second, higher-skilled workers are more likely to leave rural areas as weather conditions worsen. Third, smaller farms consolidate into larger farms in counties affected by climate change. We document that the yield damage function’s slope depends on the county’s educational level and farm size. Causal estimates of weather impacts must account for selection effects along several adaptation margins of adjustment. |
| JEL: | Q1 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34771 |
| By: | Petrick, Martin; Robinson, Sarah; Kosimov, Alisher |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the transformation of livestock value chains in peri-urban areas of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, focusing on the dynamics of livestock production, land use, and downstream supply chains. Drawing on unique farm-level data and qualitative research, we examine the limited progress of agri-food value chain modernisation in the region. Findings reveal that while urban demand for meat and processed food has grown, the smallholder-dominated livestock sector remains constrained by deficient fodder resources, fragmented production, and limited access to modern processing and retail channels. Despite massive growth of livestock numbers kept in rural households, livestock intensification has progressed only slowly, with large-scale enterprises representing a small but dynamic segment. Our survey data shows that smallholders rely heavily on informal market arrangements and local sales channels, often constrained by insufficient vertical coordination and limited quality enforcement. Large enterprises and feedlots often benefit from government support and exhibit advanced integration, with enhanced genetics, own processing plants, and branded retailing. This bifurcated structure in the livestock sector underscores challenges in transitioning toward modern value chains. Government interventions, including subsidies and cooperative development, have largely failed to integrate smallholders or address systemic bottlenecks. We discuss the options for inclusive strategies, such as strengthening public governance or leveraging medium-scale farmers. Our findings highlight the delayed transformation of Central Asia's livestock value chains compared to other emerging economies. We suggest that in Central Asia, intensive larger farms have some potentials to overcome many of the trade-offs inherent in the prevailing smallholder livestock systems. |
| Keywords: | Livestock value chains, Central Asia, Smallholder farming, Agri-food transformation, Peri-urban livestock systems |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:336247 |
| By: | Nour Nsiri (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Georgios Kleftodimos (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sophie Drogué (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Context To improve agricultural productivity and water sustainability in water-scarce regions, it is essential to understand the efficiency and diversity of farming practices Objective This study aims to assess the diversity and efficiency of farming systems in Morocco's Chtouka-Massa plain. It focuses on resource management, agricultural intensification, and water use, identifying inefficiencies and proposing sustainable solutions. Methods Using Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Clustering, we classify 40 farm households into three distinct typologies: (i) extensive cereal-arboriculture systems, (ii) semi-intensive mixed cereal-vegetable systems, and (iii) intensive vegetable farming systems. A meta-frontier approach combined with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is then applied to assess disparities in resource efficiency, technological performance, and environmental sustainability among these typologies. Results and conclusions Our results show that extensive cereal-arboriculture systems exhibit the highest resource efficiency—particularly in water, nitrogen, and labor—but achieve the lowest gross margins due to limited agricultural intensification. Semi-intensive mixed systems demonstrate moderate efficiency but consume the largest amounts of water, largely sourced from subsidized private wells. Intensive vegetable farming systems, while generating the highest gross margins, are the least efficient due to high input costs, reliance on desalinated water, and labor-intensive practices. Targeted policy interventions are needed to optimize resource use and promote sustainable practices adapted to each farming typology. Significance This study provides actionable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance the sustainability of agricultural systems and groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions. The findings support the need for targeted policies to enhance groundwater management. |
| Keywords: | Farm household typology, Efficiency, DEA Model, Meta-Frontier, Farm household typology Efficiency DEA Model Meta-Frontier |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05398998 |
| By: | Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Eiji Yamaji; Kaliappa Kalirajan |
| Abstract: | Global agri-food systems are under acute pressure from climate change, conflict, persistent inequality, and continued population growth. The result is rising food insecurity and widening gaps in progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly across the Global South. Digital transformation offers a powerful pathway to reverse these trends by increasing productivity, reducing environmental impacts, strengthening resilience, and improving food system governance. Building on commitments from the past four Global South G20 Presidencies – Indonesia (2022), India (2023), Brazil (2024), and South Africa (2025) – the United States G20 Presidency in 2026 has a unique opportunity to consolidate momentum through a coherent, forward-looking framework that links digitalisation with sustainability and SDG acceleration. This policy brief proposes a G20 action plan grounded in a digital–data–innovation–sustainability nexus. It highlights five drivers of digital transformation: productivity gains, improved market access and inclusion, enhanced resilience, strengthened food and nutrition security, and data-driven policymaking. To realise these benefits, the G20 should expand rural digital infrastructure, promote responsible data governance, incentivise sustainable digital innovations, and build institutional and financial capacity, especially for women and youth. The brief also calls for establishing an international governance structure for digitally enabled virtual food reserves to support food security during crises. Together, these measures can help G20 members build more productive, sustainable, and equitable food systems and accelerate SDG achievement by 2030. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-19 |
| By: | Barasa, Laura (University of Nairobi, School of Economics); Kihiu, Evelyne (International Potato Center); Vaz, João Manuel Lameiras (Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campolide Campus); Tanga, Chrysantus (International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology) |
| Abstract: | Food and nutrition insecurity, combined with poor waste management and sanitation, are common features of urban informal settlements. We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial with 810 households in Kibera to evaluate the effects of urban agriculture interventions—climate smart gardens (CSGs) and black soldier fly frass fertilizer (BSFFF) derived from recycled human waste—on food and nutrition security, household welfare, and food production. The interventions significantly enhanced food and nutrition security and home food production, with stronger effects observed in female-headed households. While vegetable consumption expenditure declined, food and total consumption expenditure remained unaffected. These results underscore the potential of circular economy interventions to simultaneously improve nutrition, waste management, and gender equity in densely populated informal settlements. |
| Keywords: | urban agriculture; informal settlements; climate smart gardens; frass fertilizer; food and nutrition security; household welfare; food production; gender equality |
| JEL: | I31 N57 Q12 Q15 Q18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2026_001 |
| By: | Astrid Sneyers |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at disentangling the mutual link between conflict, drought and food security in Somalia. The analysis is conducted using various indicators for food security and on different sub-national aggregation levels. The evidence is based on data from three household-level surveys, collected in various regions in Somalia between 2013-2015. While the general these that drought triggers conflict is confirmed, a negative effect of both drought and conflict on non-food expenditures is found, suggesting that these households buy less non-food items when confronted with distressing situations. Increasing drought and conflict effects on food consumption scores and food expenditures are furthermore encountered for households in Somaliland and Puntland. We test the hypothesis of differing effects of conflict and drought for households in various food security situations, with different food consumption scores, and find empirical support for the existence of a potential ’food insecurity trap’. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:449 |
| By: | Thomas Jacquet |
| Abstract: | This article assesses the short- and medium-term effects of extreme heat on agricultural productivity across French departments during 1980-2023. Using high-resolution ERA5-Land temperature data and CORINE Land Cover, we construct a sector-specific Extreme Degree Days (EDD) index, weighted by cropland and pasture shares to capture sector-specific thermal stress. We estimate department-specific impulse responses via local projections and find significant and persistent productivity losses following heat shocks above 29 °C, with effects intensifying over a four-year horizon and attenuating only modestly thereafter. A Wald test confirms substantial regional heterogeneity in sensitivity to extreme temperatures. The negative impacts are particularly pronounced in lower-productivity, livestock-oriented departments clustered between 44.5° and 46° north latitude. These findings underscore the macroeconomic relevance of a spatially disaggregated measure of exposure to extreme temperatures and highlight the urgency of region-specific adaptation strategies as these episodes intensify. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Climate change; Extreme heat; France; Productivity |
| JEL: | O13 Q19 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-4 |
| By: | Charles Hawksley (University of Wollongong [Australia]); Jonas Brouillon (IAC - Institut Agronomique Néo-Calédonien); Nichole Georgeou (Western Sydney University); Severine Blaise (LARJE - Laboratoire de Recherches Juridique et Economique - UNC - Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie); Nidhi Wali (Western Sydney University); Severine Bouard (IAC - Institut Agronomique Néo-Calédonien) |
| Abstract: | BackgroundDevelopment aid to Pacific Islands states tends to take the form of grants to provide services in health, education and transport, however Melanesian states are largely rural, and it may be time to consider stronger support for the agricultural sector as a mode of development to provide for future food security, decreased reliance on imports, and improved nutrition in an era of climate change adaptation. MethodsTo understand the place of family farming in the donor development strategies of four Melanesian states we first assess the place of foreign aid in total development finance to Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji between 2008-2021. Using data from the Lowy Institute a detailed study of aid flows highlights the respective place of official development assistance (ODA), other financial flows, private flows and remittances in the financial flows for each recipient state. We then focus on donor aid flows and their sectoral breakdown concentrating on the 'Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries' (AFF) sector, and within AFF on the sub-sectors of donor intervention. |
| Keywords: | Writing -Review & Editing, Agriculture Melanesia Aid Food Security Nutrition Conceptualization Formal Analysis Methodology Validation Writing -Original Draft Preparation Writing -Review Conceptualization Data Curation Investigation Resources Software Validation Visualization Writing -Review & Editing, Georgeou N: Conceptualization Formal Analysis Investigation Methodology Writing -Original Draft Preparation Writing -Review Curation Investigation Validation Writing -Review Conceptualization Data Curation Funding Acquisition Methodology Project Administration Resources, Agriculture, Melanesia, Aid, Project Administration, Funding Acquisition, Writing -Review Curation, Georgeou N: Conceptualization, Food Security, Visualization, Software, Resources, Investigation, Data Curation, Writing -Review Conceptualization, Writing -Original Draft Preparation, Validation, Methodology, Formal Analysis, Nutrition Conceptualization |
| Date: | 2025–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05369898 |
| By: | Cullen S. Hendrix (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural research and development (R&D) and have had to depend increasingly on themselves--and one another--to meet rising food needs. Hendrix argues that the BRICS+ economies--Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia--are well positioned to fill the world's food security gap. Key Takeaways For BRICS+, the stakes are existential because hunger and climate vulnerability are clear domestic challenges, not distant risks. Investments in climate-resilient, regionally adapted crop research would provide self-insurance and also help stabilize neighboring fragile states, where food insecurity drives migration. The returns to investments will be greatest if they are accompanied by science-based regulatory reforms. Governments of economies wary of biotechnology should educate the public and reform regulations to reap the benefits of advanced agricultural technologies. BRICS+ have the scientific know-how, institutional capacity, and capital to underwrite a massive increase in public agricultural R&D funding. Doing so would be an opportunity to demonstrate that they are capable of providing global leadership. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb26-4 |
| By: | Hales, Laura J.; Rabbitt, Matthew P.; Suttles, Shellye |
| Abstract: | Previous USDA, Economic Research Service research showed that active duty service members were nearly 2.5 times more likely to live in a food-insecure household than their socioeconomically similar civilian adult counterparts in 2018 and 2020. However, due to data limitations, this research was not able to account for the methodological differences between food security survey measurement techniques for the active duty military and civilian populations. One important methodological difference is that the Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement (CPSFSS), which is used to measure food security among civilians, uses screening procedures to reduce respondent burden, while the Status of Forces Survey of Active Duty Members (SOFS-A), used to measure food security among active duty service members, does not. The difference in screening procedures used in these two surveys may at least partially account for differences in previous estimates of food security across these groups. This report uses a novel application of a statistical approach that simulates the preliminary screening procedure that is absent from the military survey to adjust 2022 food insecurity prevalence estimates for service members, based on the SOFS-A. The statistical approach first uses civilian survey data from the 2022 CPS-FSS to construct a civilian sample that is representative of the service member sample and then applies logistic regression modeling to simulate the results of the CPS-FSS preliminary screening procedure and its impact on the food insecurity prevalence estimates of service members. The authors find that the simulated preliminary screening procedure reduces the prevalence of military food insecurity from 41.0 percent to 14.1 percent in 2022. Results from the simulation analysis may be considered a lower bound for the measured prevalence of food insecurity for the population of active duty service members since food security screening procedures generally lead to lower rates of food insecurity. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerstb:392429 |
| By: | Rocco Macchiavello (LSE); Josepa Miquel Florensa (Toulouse School of Economics.); Nicolás de Roux (Universidad de los Andes); Eric Verhoogen (Columbia University); Mario Bernasconi (University of Basel); Patrick Farrell (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Do the returns to quality upgrading pass through supply chains to primary producers? We explore this question in the context of Colombia’s coffee sector, in which market outcomes depend on interactions between farmers, exporters (which operate mills), and international buyers, and contracts are for the most part not legally enforceable. We formalize the hypothesis that quality upgrading is subject to a key hold-up problem: producing high-quality beans requires long-term investments by farmers, but there is no guarantee that an exporter will pay a quality premium when the beans arrive at its mills. An international buyer with sufficient demand for highquality coffee can solve this problem by imposing a vertical restraint on the exporter, requiring the exporter to pay a quality premium to farmers. Combining internal records from two exporters, comprehensive administrative data, and the staggered rollout of a buyer-driven quality-upgrading program, we find empirical support for the key theoretical predictions, both the lack of pass-through of quality premia under normal circumstances and the possibility of a buyer-driven solution through a vertical restraint. Calibration of the model suggests that one-third to two-thirds of the (substantial) gains from the program accrue to farmers, with the vertical restraint playing a critical role. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that quality upgrading can provide a path to higher incomes for farmers, but also that it is unlikely to be viable under standard market conditions in the sector. |
| Keywords: | Quality Upgrading, Relational Contracts, Vertical Restraints, Buyer-Driven Voluntary Standards |
| JEL: | O12 F61 L23 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022173 |
| By: | Tenkhoff, Leona; Voigt, Lisa |
| Abstract: | As climate negotiators gathered in Belém for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), the surrounding rainforest was in the spotlight, with COP30 being dubbed a "forest COP". As one of its key projects, the Brazilian government launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). The fund for the conservation and restoration of standing rainforestsaims to serve as a successful and innovative initiative in multilateral cooperation through blended finance. However, there remains a gap between current forest finance and what is needed to reach the Rio Convention targets. Germany and a few other European states have pledged investments into the fund and could shape its implementation. Additional financing mechanisms for forest restoration play a complementary role and should be enhanced. Still, not all success lies in finance. Forest finance mechanisms must reconcile targets of increasing carbon sequestration and storage in forests along with biodiversity and sustainability targets, while upholding the rights of local populations. |
| Keywords: | Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), multilateral cooperation, Rio Convention, Paris Agreemen, carbon sequestration and storage, Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:335917 |
| By: | Burgess, Matthew G.; Brown, Patrick T.; Kahn, Matthew E.; Pielke, Roger Jr |
| Abstract: | Adaptation is often framed as marginally important to addressing climate change, and as socio-technically difficult and ineffectual. We combine theoretical and empirical analyses to show that adaptation—especially via economic development—is actually often the dominant driver of climate-sensitive societal outcomes, especially on smaller space and time scales. This aligns adaptation with markets and governance incentives. For these reasons, widely studied climate-sensitive outcomes such as crop yields, affluence, and damage and death rates from climate-related hazards have broadly and steadily improved over the past several decades, as have indirectly climate-sensitive outcomes such as mortality from violence and self-harm. These improvements provide important context to recent pessimistic studies of adaptation that focus on outcomes’ marginal sensitivities to climate. They also underscore the importance of economic development to human well-being, and they suggest that economically costly climate policies could harm climate-sensitive outcomes. Moreover, we show that the range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions scenarios has narrowed, providing greater clarity to the temperatures and types of impacts society must adapt to. Our analyses highlight where adaptation and development are currently underappreciated in climate change research and policy. |
| Date: | 2026–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:m7tqu_v1 |
| By: | Burke, M.; Mohaddes, K; Raissi, M. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how climate change affects sovereign credit ratings and borrowing costs under the latest IPCC climate scenarios. We integrate country-specific income-loss estimates from Mohaddes and Raissi (2025) into the IMF’s Q-CRAFT macro-fiscal framework and apply a Random Forest emulator to predict rating trajectories. We also use the CDS-spread mapping from Aizenman et al. (2013) to translate these rating changes into borrowing-cost effects. Results show negligible rating impacts under the Paris-aligned scenario but significant downgrades (up to 2.8 notches) and increases in borrowing costs (30 basis points) under high-emission, slow-adaptation pathways by 2100 for the G20 countries. Monte Carlo simulations highlight substantial tail risks and cross-country heterogeneity, with tail outcomes producing downgrades of up to six notches by century end. We further extend the analysis to unrated economies and incorporate acute physical risks from climate-related natural disasters, using DIGNAD to estimate their cumulative GDP effects over 30 years and feeding these into the Q-CRAFT and the Random Forest emulator to project ratings. Disaster exposure can induce 1–3 notch downgrades by 2050 for highly vulnerable emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Climate, Natural Disasters, Adaptation, Credit Ratings, Debt, Machine Learning |
| JEL: | C45 G24 H63 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2608 |
| By: | Karmouni, Hajar el; Dehove, Henri; Alles, Benjamin; Baudry, Julia; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Péneau, Sandrine; Touvier, Mathilde; Mofakhami, Malo; Group, USPN Student Citizens’ Assembly; Bellicha, Alice (University Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | Background: Improving students’ diet is a public health priority, yet interventions often fail to address the structural barriers students face, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged settings. This study aimed to assess how students involved in a co-creation process (i.e. a student citizens’ assembly) conceptualise and prioritise solutions to improve students’ access to healthier, more climate-friendly diets. Methods: This participatory research took place at a French university (Sorbonne Paris Nord) located in socioeconomically disadvantaged suburbs of Paris. A student citizens’ assembly was conducted with the aim to co-create concrete proposals that would enhance students’ access to sustainable diets and physical activity. The assembly involved 27 students randomly selected among a pool of volunteers. Over three days in November 2024, students received awareness-raising and training, deliberated among themselves then with institutional and local stakeholders, and formulated proposals. For each proposal, students were asked to rate anonymously their approval on a 10-point scale. Proposals related to diet (i.e. not physical activity) were analysed a posteriori using two complementary frameworks: the DONE framework classifying determinants of diet (individual, interpersonal, environmental /policy) and the FAO dimensions of sustainable diets (health, ecological, socioeconomic, cultural). Results: Overall, 31 proposals were formulated, of which 77% targeted environmental and policy determinants of diet (e.g. institutional regulations, university policies, food assistance solutions, improved food affordability and availability, food labelling). Other proposals referred to individual (19%) and interpersonal determinants (3%). In addition, 39%, 29%, 23% and 10% proposals addressed the health, socio-economic, ecological and cultural dimensions, respectively. Mean approval ratings (SD) for each proposal ranged from 6.7 (4.0) to 9.7 (0.9), with a mean (SD) value for all proposals of 8.6 (0.7). Proposals addressing the socio-economic dimension received the highest approval ratings (mean [SD] 9.0 [0.6], vs 8.4 [0.6], 8.4 [0.8] and 7.9 [0.4] for the health, ecological and cultural dimensions, respectively). Conclusion: The predominance of environmental and policy measures targeting economic access to food highlights the importance of co-creation and its value to align interventions with participants’ needs and expectations. One major challenge that warrants further investigation is the capacity of stakeholders to implement such proposals, and to evaluate their effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8smwr_v1 |
| By: | Burke, Matt (Sheffield University Management School, University of Sheffield); Mohaddes, Kamiar (University of Cambridge); Raissi, Mehdi (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how climate change affects sovereign credit ratings and borrowing costs under the latest IPCC climate scenarios. We integrate country-specific income-loss estimates from Mohaddes and Raissi (2025) into the IMF's Q-CRAFT macro-fiscal framework and apply a Random Forest emulator to predict rating trajectories. We also use the CDS-spread mapping from Aizenman et al. (2013) to translate these rating changes into borrowing-cost effects. Results show negligible rating impacts under the Paris aligned scenario but significant downgrades (up to 2.8 notches) and increases in borrowing costs (30 basis points) under high-emission, slow-adaptation pathways by 2100 for the G20 countries. Monte Carlo simulations highlight substantial tail risks and cross-country heterogeneity, with tail outcomes producing downgrades of up to six notches by century end. We further extend the analysis to unrated economies and incorporate acute physical risks from climate-related natural disasters, using DIGNAD to estimate their cumulative GDP effects over 30 years and feeding these into the Q-CRAFT and the Random Forest emulator to project ratings. Disaster exposure can induce 1–3 notch downgrades by 2050 for highly vulnerable emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Climate, natural disasters, adaptation, credit ratings, debt, machine learning |
| JEL: | C45 G24 H63 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-03 |
| By: | Edwige Fain (ISARA); Stéphane Lemarié (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Aline Fugeray-Scarbel (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Adrien Hervouet (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The agrosupply sector plays a key role in the transition toward reduced pesticide use by developing and commercializing alternative crop protection market offerings. This article examines the business models of agrosupply actors based on eight cases-including biocontrol, equipment, and digital tools. Results reveal diverse models, some mirroring pesticide approaches and others drawing on digital-economy logics, with providers generally aiming for pesticide-level performance while requiring limited changes to existing practices. In the discussion, we distinguish models according to their implications for ecological transition and suggest that lowsustainability pathways rely on business models largely compatible with pesticide models, with the risk of reinforcing structural lock-ins and hindering future shifts toward strong sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Agrosupply sector, Multiple-case study, Business model, Biocontrol, Digital agriculture, Lock-in, Crop protection |
| Date: | 2026–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05476198 |
| By: | Lwin, Wuit Yi; Joseph Cooper; Seth Meyer; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | In July 2023, California began enforcing Proposition 12, a voter-approved law that sets minimum space requirements for breeding sows and prohibits the sale of non-compliant pork within the state. The policy created new regulatory barriers for pork entering the California market, resulting in constrained supply and added compliance costs for producers. Drawing on high-frequency scanner-level data from July 2022 to June 2025, this analysis finds that Proposition 12 has led to lasting changes in California’s pork market. Retail prices for key pork cuts have increased sharply relative to national trends, while the state’s share of national pork consumption has declined. The results point to a structural shift in consumer behavior and pricing dynamics, with effects that have persisted over a two-year period. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:391417 |
| By: | Kohei Asao; Raju Huidrom |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of inflation in Timor-Leste—a post-conflict, low-income economy and small developing state that is fully dollarized. We find that Timorese inflation was high until about mid-2010 and was strongly influenced by swings in global food prices given its high share of food in the CPI basket and heavy reliance on food imports. But inflation has been relatively low and stable in the past decade relative to peers—a period that also broadly coincided with moderate global food prices. We develop an empirical model for Timorese inflation that distills the role of these underlying drivers, and which can be deployed for forecasting inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Phillips curve; Low-Income Country; Fragile and Conflict State; Dollarization; Timor-Leste |
| Date: | 2026–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/024 |
| By: | Mustapha Jouili (University of Carthage); Mohamed Amine Welleni (University of Carthage) |
| Abstract: | Since 2011, in a post-revolutionary context, the debate on the CGC in Tunisia has resurfaced with each finance law. In this debate, the surge in compensation charges is most often attributed to the surge in world prices and/or the increase in consumption of subsidized products. Such an analysis obscures a multitude of variables that are the expression of the economic policies implemented and that contribute to the variability of compensation charges. However, it is precisely the identification of these factors that can provide a reliable explanation of the reduction or increase in budgetary allocations granted under compensation and inaugurate avenues of reflection on the possibilities of reforming the subsidy system. And it is to the identification of these factors that this contribution is devoted. |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1816 |
| By: | Mitrovic, Aleksandar; Steenkamp, Daan |
| Abstract: | E‐commerce data enable economists to study a range of economic phenomena, ranging from price dynamics, market structure and product entry and innovation, consumer demand and behaviour, and pass‐through of input costs to final retail prices. In this paper we compare developments in e‐commerce prices to official estimates of consumer good inflation in South Africa. We highlight measurement challenges and differences between online list prices and officially surveyed statistics from discounting, product changes and product availability over time. We also evaluate online discounting behaviour for specific products and product categories, especially during Black Friday sales, and quantify online price persistence in South Africa. We show that e‐commerce prices experience changes at a broadly similar frequency as our estimates imply for official measures of consumer prices. Our analysis suggests real‐time alternative data are important, not just for forecasting, but also for understanding the nature of price dynamics in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | E‐commerce, big data, real‐time data |
| JEL: | E31 C81 L81 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:336211 |
| By: | Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali (University of Khartoum); Abdul-Hameed Elias Suliman (University of Khartoum) |
| Abstract: | This study primarily aims to test the applicability of the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to Sudan using time series data from 1970 to 2022. The study is driven by the rise in greenhouse gas emissions—such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)—during the last decades in which the country became an oil producer and exporter. To achieve this objective, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration technique, which is well-suited for analyzing short- and long-run relationships. Following the essential pre-tests, the analysis reveals a significant integrated relationship among the variables under consideration. The primary finding of the analysis is that the EKC in Sudan follows a U-shaped pattern. This implies a direct relationship between economic development and environmental deterioration, particularly in terms of CO2 emissions. The findings also highlight that the continuous growth in energy consumption, electricity production, and urbanization directly contributes to environmental degradation. Based on these results, the study proposes a number of recommendations, including policy interventions and behavioral changes, aimed at addressing the environmental imbalance identified in the analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1777 |
| By: | McLaren, Keith R. |
| Abstract: | Allocation models such as consumer demand systems typicall imply a degenerate error structure. The usual approach in estimation is to delete one equation, and to appeal to the results of Barten(1969) or Powell(1969) that parameter estimates are invariant to the equation deleted. However such proofs of invariance are not straightforward. This paper demonstrates that such systems are observationally equivalent to structures common in the simultaneous equations literature, for which invariance is obvious, and hence provides a more transparent demonstration of conditions for invariance |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:monebs:266969 |
| By: | Keller, Andrew |
| Abstract: | The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), signed in July 2025, reshapes the farm tax landscape primarily by preventing the scheduled 2026 sunset of major 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions and by adding targeted new benefits for producers. This post summarizes the law’s effects across three practical domains for Midwestern farm operations. First, it locks in lower individual income tax rates and the higher standard deduction, avoiding an automatic tax increase for most farm families, while also strengthening and permanently extending the Child Tax Credit and adding a temporary senior deduction for 2025–28. Second, it improves farm business investment incentives by making the 20% qualified business income deduction permanent, restoring 100% bonus depreciation, and expanding Section 179 expensing, alongside other provisions that affect interest limits, SALT, and clean fuel incentives. Third, it supports intergenerational succession by permanently increasing the estate and gift tax exemption to $15 million per person (indexed) and preserving stepped-up basis, helping most family farms transfer assets without federal estate tax exposure. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2025–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:391416 |
| By: | González, Antonio Blanco; del Campo Villares, José Luis |
| Abstract: | In any product whose evaluation involves taste factors, subjectivity is a determining factor. For this reason, a rating or evaluation system is sometimes proposed to help potential consumers navigate different decision-making alternatives. In recent decades, the wine sector has been characterized by the use of ratings issued by specialized critics. This access channel serves as a means of knowledge for potential customers who have not physically seen the product and who, upon seeing the ratings received by these critics, see them as an influential factor in their final decision-making. Making a decision based on the numerical rating given by a wine reviewer after tasting a wine, where the wine is awarded the maximum score (100 points), can have a positive influence on the consumer's decision. However, not all critics, and consequently their ratings, have the same relevance to the final buyer. This work designed a methodology and proposed a formulation that objectively assesses the real influence of a wine's highest rating by a critic, based on its increased online visibility, search volume, and references in digital media. Several indicators were designed to compare the influence of different critics' scores over a time horizon of one to four weeks after a wine received its highest rating. The study examined whether the highest rating awarded by a specialized wine reviewer has the same impact in all cases or whether it depends on the critic. It also determined the duration of its influence over time. |
| Date: | 2026–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5kd4v_v1 |
| By: | Diengdoh, Vishesh Leon (Meghalaya Climate Change Centre) |
| Abstract: | Multi-level governance (MLG) emphasises the importance of subnational institutions and actors in climate governance. From an MLG perspective, state legislatures and legislators in India represent potentially important but empirically underexamined sites of climate governance, given their roles in articulating local concerns, exercising policy oversight, and holding executive actors accountable. This study provides the first systematic synthesis of climate-related legislative discourse in India by examining over three decades (1993–2025) of legislative questions from the Meghalaya Legislative Assembly. Using a public corpus of 9, 522 questions retrieved from the National eVidhan Application (NeVA) portal, the study applies an iteratively developed keyword-based annotation approach to distinguish between explicit climate discourse and implicit climate-relevant engagement. The findings show that explicit references to climate change are exceedingly rare, accounting for 0.06% of all legislative questions, consistent with the limited formal integration of state legislatures within India’s climate governance framework. In contrast, legislators frequently engage with climate-relevant sectors such as coal, flood, forests, and irrigation, framing these issues primarily through administrative and financial concerns rather than through climate change narratives. This pattern highlights the unrealised potential of subnational legislatures as sites of climate governance. By focusing on legislative attention and discourse, this study contributes new empirical evidence on subnational climate governance in the Global South and highlights opportunities for mainstreaming climate-change discourse within legislative processes. |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5ncpt_v1 |
| By: | Konstantinos Gavriilidis; Diego R. Känzig; Ramya Raghavan; James H. Stock |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel measure of climate policy uncertainty based on newspaper coverage. Our index spikes during key U.S. climate policy events—including presidential announcements on international agreements, congressional debates, and regulatory disputes—and shows a recent upward trend. Using an instrument for plausibly exogenous uncertainty shifts, we find that higher climate policy uncertainty decreases output and emissions while raising commodity and consumer prices, acting as supply rather than demand shocks. Faced with this trade-off, monetary policy does not accommodate climate policy uncertainty shocks, shaping their transmission. Firm-level analyses show stronger declines in investment and R&D when firms have higher climate change exposure. |
| JEL: | D80 E66 H23 L50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34762 |
| By: | Mundschenk, Lovisa; Janssen, Lisa; Werner, Hannah (University of Zurich); Reiljan, Andres; Cicchi, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | Climate change has become increasingly politicized, prompting concerns that it may generate new societal rifts. While elite-level rhetoric—particularly among radical right actors—has grown more adversarial, it remains unclear whether similar affective divisions have emerged among citizens. Using cross-national survey data, this paper examines affective polarization over climate change in France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, and Poland. Mirroring real-world debates that pit stricter climate protection against economic prosperity, we assess mutual affect between individuals on either side of this division, and estimate polarization across the full attitudinal spectrum. Across all countries, we find significant affective polarization with a clear asymmetric pattern: pro-climate citizens express clear in-group warmth and out-group coldness, whereas pro-growth citizens show little affective opposition and in some cases even evaluate climate-oriented individuals more positively than their own group. Moreover, affective polarization among pro-climate respondents is not associated with reduced political tolerance. These findings suggest that mass affective polarization over climate action is less entrenched than elite discourse implies. |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pm3qd_v1 |
| By: | Honda, Hiroshi; Kakidani, Hitoshi; Tomita, Motonori; Nakano, Tetsuo; Tohda, Hideki |
| Abstract: | Industrial biotechnology plays a central role in contemporary innovation systems; however, the professional positioning of industrial bioengineers within international engineering qualification frameworks remains insufficiently clarified. This study presents a data-informed institutional analysis of how industrial bioengineering is recognized within professional qualification systems by combining a comparative review of international qualification frameworks with quantitative analysis of membership statistics from Japan’s Professional Engineer system. The review indicates that bioengineering is most often positioned primarily within biomedical engineering, while comprehensive qualification categories encompassing genetic engineering, cell engineering, and industrial bioprocess engineering, such as those institutionalized in Japan, are rarely explicitly articulated at the international level. Moreover, analysis of division-level data across 20 engineering disciplines in Japan further shows that organizational engagement, measured by organization rates, exhibits a negative but statistically non-significant association with division size. This trend suggests that in large divisions where holding the qualification itself provides practical advantages, such as preferential evaluation in public procurement, incentives for active participation in professional organizations may be relatively weaker. In contrast, smaller divisions display greater variability in organization rates and appear more sensitive to qualitative institutional factors. Within this context, the biotechnology division is distinctive, exhibiting both the highest organization rate (59.4%) and the highest female representation (13.4%) among all divisions. These characteristics are consistent with the nature of industrial biotechnology, a field characterized by rapid technological advances and persistent ethical, safety, and regulatory challenges that require continuous human interaction and collective professional governance. Using Japan’s Professional Engineer (Biotechnology and Bioengineering) system as an implemented reference, this study highlights the importance of institutionalizing industrial bioengineering through professional qualification frameworks and encourages economies to consider similar approaches to support sustained professional engagement. |
| Date: | 2026–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8ufbc_v1 |
| By: | Jean-Marie Baland (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Cédric Duprez (National Bank of Belgium); Wouter Gelade (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium, University of Mons); François Woitrin (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a model of North-South trade to investigate the impact of Fair Trade. In the absence of a label, Southern producers are exploited by monopsonisitic traders who export to Northern markets. The Fair Trade label, given to some existing traders, certifies the adoption of high labour standards or the payment of fair prices to producers in the South.We first show that such a label is never Pareto improving: the welfare of unlabeled and some label led producers in the South falls while the welfare of Northern consumers increases. An expansion of Fair Trade tends to exacerbate those effects. We also show that the consequences of fair trade are systematically dampened in environments where traders enjoy more market power. We also explore an alternative setting in which new Fair Trade cooperatives are introduced alongside private traders. The cooperatives maximize the welfare of the producers they trade with. We show that our main results also apply in this context. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nam:defipp:2602 |