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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Schmid, Anna |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343891 |
| By: | Birla, S.C.; Rankine, L.B.; Singh, R.H. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:carc86:265056 |
| By: | Chandio, Rabail |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343968 |
| By: | Li, Yanggu; Zhang, Wei |
| Abstract: | Agricultural conservation on working agricultural lands is increasingly recognized as a critical strategy for addressing environmental challenges and enhancing the resilience of food systems in the face of climate change. Despite the growing funding for Climate-SmartAgricultural and Forestry (CSAF) practices, we lack comprehensive assessment of their economic impacts. Focusing on the impacts of CSAF practices under the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) on agricultural productivity and resilience in the United States, we estimate the effects of EQIP payments for CSAF on county-level yields, loss acres, and insurance loss cost ratios for corn, soybean, and winter wheat, while controlling for the confounding effects of land-retirement payments through the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Our findings suggest that EQIP payments for CSAF practices significantly reduce corn loss acres and loss cost ratios. A one standard deviation increase in EQIP payments for CSAF practices is estimated to reduce county-level corn loss acres by 1.17%, highlighting their potential to mitigate climate risks. Conversely, payments for non-CSAF practices are associated with increased corn loss acres and higher loss cost ratios for corn and soybean, suggesting the need for more targeted conservation strategies. This study contributes to the growing literature on agricultural conservation by quantifying the economic benefits of CSAF practices and offering insights for improving conservation program design to enhance agricultural productivity and climate resilience. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361186 |
| By: | Wanyonyi, Gloria; Posey, Sean; Muriuki, James |
| Abstract: | How do smallholder farmers in Ghana navigate fluctuations in crop prices and market uncertainty? This study explores the dynamic land allocation decisions of smallholder farmers between two main crops produced in Ghana: maize and cassava. While economic theory suggests that farmers adjust their crop choices in response to market prices, these decisions are more complex, influenced by price risks, resource constraints, and local conditions. A key challenge in this context is the limited availability and accessibility of timely market data in developing countries, which restricts farmers’ ability to make fully informed decisions. Leveraging market data and an agricultural household model, we investigate whether and how farmers respond to changes in market price trends and price volatility of maize and cassava. We hypothesize that farmers will expand maize cultivation in response to positive price shocks but will show limited responsiveness to negative price shocks. This response reflects the dual pressures of ensuring food security and maximizing economic returns. Additionally, we expect that greater access to price information enhances responsiveness to market signals, while higher price risk discourages land allocation to volatile crops. Furthermore, we hypothesize that farmers farther from markets or ports are less likely to be influenced by market and import prices, respectively, due to higher transaction costs and reduced market access. These findings promise to inform policies that enhance market transparency, risk management, and equitable access to agricultural opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360637 |
| By: | Henderson, Thomas H. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:carc86:265047 |
| By: | Loduca, Natalie R.; Sears, James |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) cost-share programs in promoting cover crop adoption. Cover crops offer multiple public ecological benefits, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving water quality, along with private benefits to farmers from improvements in soil health, weed suppression, and a reduction in soil erosion. However, adoption of cover crops remains below the socially-optimal level due to high adoption costs and incomplete internalization of broader ecosystem services. The cost-share payments from NRCS allow farmers to bridge this gap between the public and private benefits of conservation practices. First, our theoretical model demonstrates that failing to separate voluntary adoption program payments into their cost-share proportion and per-acre cost components will yield incorrect conclusions regarding the impact of cost-share generosity on enrolled cover crop acreage. Next, using disaggregated NRCS program participation data and a panel fixed effects regression approach, we isolate the effect of cost-share generosity from per-acre payments and provide novel evidence on the role cost-share generosity plays in driving voluntary conservation program participation and cover crop adoption in agriculture. Lastly, we utilize remote-sensing data on total county-level cover crop and conservation tillage acreage to estimate complementarity models. These findings contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing the adoption of cover crops and offer insights into the role of government incentives in increasing sustainable agricultural practices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361184 |
| By: | Baldos, Uris Lantz C. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343904 |
| By: | Pemberton, C. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:carc86:265046 |
| By: | McDonald, Tia M. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Farm Management, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343871 |
| By: | Alexander, Carrie S; Yarborough, Mark; Smith, Aaron |
| Abstract: | This article presents findings from interviews that were conducted with agriculture and food system researchers to understand their views about what it means to conduct ‘responsible’ or ‘trustworthy’ artificial intelligence (AI) research. Findings are organized into four themes: (1) data access and related ethical problems; (2) regulations and their impact on AI food system technology research; (3) barriers to the development and adoption of AI-based food system technologies; and (4) bridges of trust that researchers feel are important in overcoming the barriers they identified. All four themes reveal gray areas and contradictions that make it challenging for academic researchers to earn the trust of farmers and food producers. At the same time, this trust is foundational to research that would contribute to the development of high-quality AI technologies. Factors such as increasing regulations and worsening environmental conditions are stressing agricultural systems and are opening windows of opportunity for technological solutions. However, the dysfunctional process of technology development and adoption revealed in these interviews threatens to close these windows prematurely. Insights from these interviews can support governments and institutions in developing policies that will keep the windows open by helping to bridge divides between interests and supporting the development of technologies that deserve to be called “responsible” or “trustworthy” AI. |
| Keywords: | 30 Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences (for-2020), 40 Engineering (for-2020), 3002 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management (for-2020), 3004 Crop and Pasture Production (for-2020), 4017 Mechanical Engineering (for-2020), Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (rcdc), 2 Zero Hunger (sdg), Artificial intelligence, Precision agriculture, AI ethics, Trustworthy AI, Food policy, Technology adoption, 0703 Crop and Pasture Production (for), Agronomy & Agriculture (science-metrix), 3002 Agriculture, land and farm management (for-2020), 3004 Crop and pasture production (for-2020), 4017 Mechanical engineering (for-2020) |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt1db2j2p1 |
| By: | Maredia, Mywish K.; Boughton, Duncan; Fisher, Ian |
| Abstract: | Climate change and food insecurity require agrifood systems that are both productive and resilient. Climate-Smart Innovations (CSIs) offer practical solutions, yet their successful identification, evaluation, and scaling remain challenging. This guide presents a structured framework for advancing CSIs from early identification to large-scale impact. Developed for the USDA-funded Regional Agricultural Innovation Network (RAIN) project and grounded in the Research for Development (R4D) paradigm, the guide outlines five interconnected phases: Screening, Feasibility Assessment, Field Testing, Scaling Up/Out, and Impact Assessment. RAIN’s adapted “5S” model places particular emphasis on designing viable business models and engaging private-sector actors to support scaling. Across phases, the framework integrates technical, economic, institutional, and social considerations to ensure CSIs are relevant, adoptable, and sustainable—especially for smallholder farmers. The guide provides researchers, policymakers, and practitioners with a practical roadmap for translating climate-smart innovations into scalable, resilient agrifood system solutions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midasp:386159 |
| By: | Liu, Min; Huang, Kaixing; Wang, Jizhe; Wuepper, David |
| Abstract: | Ecosystem restoration is often perceived as competing with agricultural production, yet this perception neglects potential synergies emerging from biophysical feedbacks. Here, we demonstrate that large-scale grassland restoration under China’s Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy (GECP) significantly enhances maize yields by regulating local microclimate. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design with county-level panel data, we show that restored grasslands reduced average growing-season temperatures by approximately 0.11℃ and increased precipitation by 11.48mm, thereby suppressing extreme heat and drought during critical reproductive stages. These changes extended the maize reproductive growth period by 0.93 days, elevating yields by 7.76% (0.437t/ha) and reducing crop failure risk by 25.9%. Economically, the yield gains alone offset over 80% of program costs within five years, and the additional production could alleviate nearly 10% of China's maize import deficit in the Northern Spring Maize Region. Our findings overturn the conventional trade-off narrative between conservation and agri culture, positioning ecosystem restoration as a scalable strategy for climate resilient food security. |
| Keywords: | ecosystem restoration, agricultural production, climate change adaptation, grassland, China, cost-benefit analysis |
| JEL: | Q15 Q18 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127058 |
| By: | Olivera, Serena; Börner, Jan; Sellare, Jorge |
| Abstract: | The intensification of livestock production systems driven by growing demand for animal products has resulted in significant environmental challenges. Manure mismanagement in intensive systems can lead to greenhouse gas emissions and potential contamination of water and soil, thus contributing to biodiversity loss and climate change. We study manure management adoption in dairy farms in Buenos Aires, Argentina where livestock production is strongly linked to cultural traditions and faces multiple barriers to sustainable change, such as strong taxation and high levels of uncertainty. Specifically, we examine how two key behavioral and social mechanisms shape adoption outcomes: farmers’ risk preferences, and the interplay between farm succession and family labor availability. To our knowledge, these factors have not been previously explored and are especially relevant to the local context. We run an ordinal logistic regression based on farm-level data. Farmers’ risk preferences are elicited using a lottery-based experiment, while succession is proxied by the farmer’s perception of his/her children continuing dairy farm activities. We complement our analysis using semi-structured interviews with key informants to add qualitative insights into the motivations and constraints for adoption. We find that farmers more willing to take risks are more likely to adopt manure management practices, but this effect becomes weaker with farmers that simultaneously present loss-aversion. Family dynamics also play a key role. Surprisingly, farmers who expect a child to take over the farm, but do not currently have family labor on the farm, are less likely to adopt. Yet, when both succession and active family labor are in place, the likelihood of adoption increases significantly. We find that in-farm sustainable investments are more prone when the succession is expected and the family is actively engaged in farm labor. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360677 |
| By: | Scognamillo, Antonio; Burrone, Sara; Poudel, Dixit; Rub, Abdur; Song, Chun; Munaweera, Thilani; Bandara, Sidath |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the Smart Extension and Efficient Decision-making (S.E.E.D) Hub, an integrated e-extension service implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in rural Sri Lanka. The S.E.E.D Hub aimed to improve agricultural outcomes by delivering geospatially tailored market and weather information, along with farming advisory services, through a user-friendly mobile application. The initiative sought to address key challenges faced by paddy farmers, including production efficiency, risk management, marketing strategies, and food security. The program’s impact was evaluated using a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) involving 2, 200 paddy farmers across 220 Farmer Organizations (FOs), representative of Sri Lanka’s paddy-farming population. The results reveal that the S.E.E.D Hub significantly enhanced access to timely and relevant information, with a 50 percent increase observed among the compliers sub-population, as measured by the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE). Furthermore, the intervention promoted greater crop diversification and strengthened farmers’ capacity to market rice effectively, signaling potential long-term economic benefits. While the program produced some encouraging results, the absence of statistically significant effects on food security and vulnerability to harvest losses suggests that access to information alone is insufficient to improve resilience related outcomes, underscoring the need for more comprehensive and supportive interventions. Policymakers are encouraged to consider integrating such initiatives with broader support mechanisms, such as access to credit, financial risk mitigation tools, and investments in rural infrastructure, to maximize their impact on agricultural resilience and livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360985 |
| By: | Teal, Jim |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Agribusiness, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343927 |
| By: | Vieira, Dominic; Lopez Barrera, Emiliano; Ray, Srabashi; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Reducing food waste (FW) is a key strategy for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including food security (SDG 2), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), climate action (SDG 13), and economic growth (SDG 8). While enhancing sustainability, FW reduction also introduces economic trade-offs, particularly in labor-intensive agricultural sectors. This study employs a multiscale modeling framework to assess both global sustainability gains and localized economic challenges. At the global scale, a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) estimates FW as household technical inefficiency, and these estimates are integrated into the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land Use, and the Environment (SIMPLE). A 50% reduction in FW by 2050, aligned with SDG 12.3, reduces cropland use by 3% and lowers annual greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.5 gigatons, easing pressure on natural resources. These changes also lead to lower global crop prices (6.8%–8%), improving food affordability and reducing undernourishment, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (7.6 million fewer undernourished individuals) and South Asia (4 million fewer).At the local scale, the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land Use, and the Environment – Gridded version (SIMPLE-G-US) evaluates the effects of FW reduction on U.S. agricultural water use and labor markets. Irrigation water use declines by an average of 5.6%, with reductions up to 11.6% in water-scarce regions, contributing to water conservation efforts. However, FW reduction also results in a 4.25%–11.8% decline in agricultural employment, with wage losses of up to $3 per hour, particularly in labor-intensive regions like the Fruitful Rim. These findings highlight the need for coordinated policies that maximize sustainability benefits while addressing economic equity concerns, ensuring that FW reduction strategies support both environmental and social well-being. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360723 |
| By: | Gao, Siqi; Liang, Wanqi; Miao, Ruiqing; Li, Wenying |
| Abstract: | Climate change is widely recognized as a significant threat to global food systems, yet its precise impact on human nutritional intake remains insufficiently quantified. Previous research has primarily examined agricultural productivity and disruptions to food supply, overlooking the subsequent implications for nutrient intake. We present the first global empirical analysis of how rising temperatures affect actual human nutrient intake across 185 countries, using data from 1990 to 2018. By integrating high-resolution climate data with nationally representative dietary intake estimates, we find that global warming undermines human nutrition: each 1 °C increase in mean global temperature reduces per-capita daily intakes of vitamin A and dietary fiber by over 1 %, while the decline in seafood-derived ω-3 fats reaches 2.12 %. These impacts are disproportionately borne by children, rural populations, and low-income countries, and have intensified over time. Projections under high-emission SSP5–8.5 scenario suggest further widespread nutritional deterioration by the year 2100, with omega-3 fat and vitamin A intake declining by over 20% in many regions. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of climate vulnerability: the decline in dietary quality, underscoring the need to integrate high-resolution, nutrition-sensitive strategies into climate adaptation and food policy. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360979 |
| By: | Hao, Zhuang; Zhang, Xudong; Li, Gucheng; Tennekoon, Vidhura S.; Tian, Zerui |
| Abstract: | Farming households face intertwined uncertainties in health and agricultural production, raising critical questions about how ongoing efforts of developing countries on social insurance provision and expansion influence agricultural production decisions. This paper investigates the impact of health insurance on agricultural investments, leveraging the phased rollout of a nationwide basic insurance scheme integration in China that enhanced the affordability and accessibility of health care services for rural residents. We provide robust evidence that insurance integration leads high health-risk farming households to significantly reduce investments in food crop production, with expenses on seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and films decreasing by 7.5%, 8.5%, 7.6%, and 7.3%, respectively. Empirical results suggest that insurance integration mitigates health risks, encouraging farming households to assume greater production risks. This is reflected in reduced food crop diversification, which may explain the decline in its investment. However, there is no significant evidence of increased engagement in other risky agricultural production activities, such as expanding sown areas or investing in cash crops. Importantly, the reduction in food crop investments does not compromise household income. These findings highlight the complex interplay between health insurance and agricultural decision-making, offering valuable insights into social policies aimed at reducing rural vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | Health Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360927 |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360986 |
| By: | Jean-Noel Depeyrot (SSP/CEP - Paris); Mickael Hugonnet (SSP/CEP - Paris); Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Philippe Lescoat (SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This conference is part of the launch (in Paris on January 30, 2025) by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty (MASA) of the Assises du Sanitaire. The aim of this initiative is to reassess the organizations, strategies, and resources to be mobilized for the surveillance and control of animal diseases in France. The conference is structured around six key points: the challenges facing livestock farming in France; livestock farms and farmers; the supply and demand for animal products; the geography of animal production; farmers' incomes and the importance of subsidies; and foreign trade in animal products. |
| Abstract: | Cette conférence s'inscrit dans le cadre du lancement (à Paris le 30 Janvier 2025) par la Ministre de l'Agriculture et de la Souveraineté Alimentaire (MASA) des Assises du Sanitaire. Ces dernières visent à réinterroger les organisations, stratégies et moyens à mobiliser dans la surveillance et la lutte contre les maladies animales en France. Cette conférence s'articule autour de six points clés : les enjeux de l'élevage en France ; les exploitations d'élevage et les éleveurs ; l'offre et la demande de produits animaux ; la géographie des productions animales ; les revenus des éleveurs et l'importance des aides ; le commerce extérieur de produits animaux. |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness, Livestock farming, France, Animal production, Agricultural markets, Marches agricoles, Compétitivité, Productions animales, Elevage |
| Date: | 2025–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05430678 |
| By: | Bahrami, Shahin; Rad, Mani Rouhi; Hrozencik, Aaron; Quesada, Gabriela Perez; Nayga, Rodolfo |
| Abstract: | Groundwater is a critical source of water supply for irrigated agriculture. Multiple studies have highlighted the importance of declining well capacities as a critical factor affecting groundwater demand in agriculture. These studies show that well capacity, the maximum instantaneous flow rate of pumping from an aquifer, is a better determinant of groundwater use than saturated thickness, which measures the height of an aquifer above the bedrock. While the effects of declining well capacities on irrigation demand are well known, the costs of declining well capacities are not well understood. In this paper, we estimate the benefits of groundwater access and the value of irrigation well capacity using a hedonic valuation approach applied to agricultural property markets in the Colorado portion of the High Plains Aquifer. Specifically, we spatially link agricultural land sale transactions with the hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer and irrigation wells. This novel dataset allows us to estimate land values as a function of well capacity, saturated thickness, depth to water, hydraulic conductivity , and specific yield. In addition, we control for a range of non-hydrological attributes of farmland that may affect land values, such as proximity to urban areas, soil quality, and the dollar value of the improvements. We find that having access to groundwater is associated with about a 119% higher land values. On the other hand, a 10-foot higher saturated thickness is associated with 2% higher land values. We also find that both saturated thickness and well capacity are statistically significant determinants of land values. Specifically, we show that a 100 gpm increase in well capacity is associated with a 2% increase in land values ($127 in 2022 USD). Our results have important implications for valuing groundwater as natural capital. We find that the exclusion of well capacity can underestimate the shadow value of groundwater by more than 10%. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361200 |
| By: | Yim, Hyungsun; Dall'erba, Sandy |
| Abstract: | In the United States, like in other countries, the agrifood supply chain faces challenges from a growing population and less predictable weather conditions. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, decrease agricultural yield and harvested areas, impact the domestic trade of agricultural products and, in turn, food manufacturing. We investigate this relationship by estimating the food manufacturing production function in a two-stage process. In the first stage, we assess how drought affects trade in animals and fish (SCTG 01), cereal grains (SCTG 02), and all other crop products (SCTG 03). Next, we estimate a nested production function for processed food at the state level. Our findings indicate that the impact of a drought is far from being confined to the area where it happens. At the national level, we find that a 1% increase in drought in the states producing agricultural commodities reduces their exports to other states by 0.5%–0.7% which, in turn, reduces food manufacturing production by an average of 0.04%. The capacity to shift the origin of import flows, adjust their volume, and substitute agricultural inputs supports the resilience of the food manufacturing sector. We further estimate the 48×48 pairwise dependence across states and by commodity group. While cereal grain production is more spatially concentrated than other crops, the agrifood supply chain can enhance resilience by sourcing from geographically diverse counties within key supplier states and improving multi-state coordination. These findings provide insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders to enhance food system resilience in the face of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360645 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Held under the high patronage of Madame the Minister of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forestry, this conference was organized by the French Academy of Agriculture and Crédit Agricole. Following an initial introductory address by Thierry Caquet (Environment Deputy Director at INRAE) focusing on the effects of climate change on agricultural holdings, the conference addressed the issue of the competitiveness of French agricultural farms and their resilience. |
| Abstract: | Placé sous le haut patronage de Madame la Ministre de l'Agriculture, de la Souveraineté alimentaire et de la Forêt, cette conférence a été organisée par l'Académie d'Agriculture de France et le Crédit Agricole. Dans la continuité d'une première allocution introductive réalisée par Thierry Caquet (DS Environnement de INRAE) portant sur les effets du changement climatique sur les exploitations agricoles, cette conférence a abordé la question de la compétitivité des exploitations agricoles françaises et leur résilience. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Economic Performance, Resilience, Competitiveness, Changement climatique, Performances économiques, Résilience, Compétitivité |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05430630 |
| By: | Goyal, Raghav |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:344005 |
| By: | Shukla, Sumedha; Arora, Gaurav; Agarwal, Sandip Kumar |
| Abstract: | Climate change and the resulting increase in crop failures pose significant production risks, particularly for smallholder farmers dependent on agriculture as their primary income source. Growing multiple crops is regarded as an important resilience strategy, enabling risk diversification through both inter-seasonal practices (e.g., double or triple cropping) and intra-seasonal approaches like mixed cropping. This study examines the role of mixed cropping - the simultaneous cultivation of multiple crops on a single plot - in production risk management among smallholder farms in semiarid and tropical regions in India. From a farm management perspective mixed cropping is expected to support higher farm incomes, improved dietary diversity, and lower production costs. However existing research exploring its farm productivity and production risk impacts is limited, inconclusive and predominantly based on agronomic experimental data. Here we investigate the effects of a cotton-pigeonpea traditional mixed cropping system on farm productivity and production risk. We employ beta regressions in conjunction with a non-linear instrumental variable framework to estimate input-conditional yield densities using plot-level primary survey data (Arora et al. 2021). The welfare implications of mixed cropping are measured using certainty equivalent - the expected income minus the cost of risk exposure. To estimate risk exposure, we use higher-order moments of the yield distributions, adapting the framework developed by Di Falco and Chavas (2009) to our multiple cropping context. We find that mixed cropping reduces the variability of returns and increases skewness, leading to an overall reduction in downside risk exposure despite its slight negative effect on mean returns. To our best knowledge, we provide the first piece of evidence on the role of mixed cropping cotton-legumes in managing farm-level production risk in India. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361060 |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers are among the most vulnerable to extreme weather events due to high dependence on rainfed agriculture, constrained financial resources, and the absence of insurance and safety nets. Unable to meet the collateral and land title requirements set by credit bureaus, female farmers, tenant farmers, and sharecroppers are often turned away from borrowing, limiting their ability to expand production and invest in modern inputs. “KhetScore” is a novel digital credit-scoring approach that utilizes remote sensing and machine learning to assess creditworthiness based on the expected productivity of a plot rather than the profile of a borrower. Using a cluster randomized trial in two states of India, we evaluate the effect of KhetScore in unlocking farmers’ access to credit and the impact of bundling KhetScore credit with insurance in mitigating borrowing risks and protecting farmers from default. Results reveal that offering KhetScore credit alone significantly crowds in borrowing from formal sources without driving borrowers into indebtedness. We hypothesize that bundling KhetScore credit with insurance can additionally protect farmers from indebtedness, but we cannot speak to the effect due to few insurance payouts being triggered. Improved access to credit through KhetScore credit-scoring is found to be effective in expanding agricultural production mainly at the extensive margin through increasing the area cultivated, especially in the Rabi (dry) season when land is often left fallow due to limited access to irrigation. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360984 |
| By: | Kim, Youngho; Newburn, David; Lichtenberg, Erik; Wietelman, Derek; Wang, Haoluan |
| Abstract: | Emissions trading programs have been promoted as efficient means to reduce nonpoint source water pollution and sequester carbon from agricultural land. While trading programs are often evaluated in isolation, they compete with longstanding agricultural conservation subsidy programs. Both programs target agroforestry practices that provide environmental benefits using different payment structures: Trading pays for performance while agricultural conservation programs pay for effort. We evaluate the performance of both programs in isolation and competition using an integrated assessment model that combines a stated preference survey of agricultural landowners for establishing forests with biophysical models of water quality and carbon sequestration benefits of forests. Our numerical policy simulation suggests that the water quality trading program in isolation can provide sufficient financial incentives for landowners to engage in afforestation activities on agricultural land. However, federal agricultural conservation subsidies largely crowd out the trading program when in competition. Stacking payments for carbon offsets with water quality trading payments does not enhance trading participation. Overall, the attractiveness and effectiveness of emissions trading programs for afforestation activities on agricultural land are heavily influenced by the presence and level of federal agricultural conservation subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360762 |
| By: | Ponce, Anthony; Zhang, Terry; Zhang, Wendong |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the ecological benefits of conservation easements on bird populations, specifically those established around wetlands. Wetlands, which covered only 116.4 million acres (approximately 6% of U.S. land) by 2019, have experienced a 50% increase in loss rates since 2009 due to drainage and agricultural conversion. In response, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service has obligated over $1.8 billion to preserve nearly 800, 000 acres via agricultural and wetland easements, with the 2018 Farm Bill allocating roughly $450 million annually to the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). We provide causal estimates of how wetland easements affect bird relative abundance and species richness, accounting for variations in easement intensity, timing, and hydrological boundaries. Our data span 2003 through 2023 and include granular eBird observations—one of the most comprehensive citizen-science bird datasets available, offering novel geographic and temporal resolution—that we use to construct annual HUC12-level indices of relative abundance and species richness by conditioning on observer effort, expertise, and seasonality. We supplement these observations with the National Conservation Easement Database for spatial records of CREP, ACEP, and EQIP easements; the National Land Cover Database for high-resolution wetland and land-cover classifications; PRISM climate data (temperature and precipitation) to control for weather influences; and CropIndex land use and crop price information to capture adjacent agricultural pressures. Our empirical strategy proceeds in two steps. First, we generate subwatershed-level indices of bird abundance and richness using eBird checklists, differentiating between breeding and non-breeding seasons to capture habitat sensitivity. Second, we implement a staggered difference-indifferences design: treated subwatersheds with wetland easements are compared to matched control subwatersheds in the same HUC8 watershed that have not yet received easements. Matching on pre-treatment trends and covariates mitigates confounding and spillover concerns, while the two-period comparison isolates changes before and after easement implementation. Preliminary findings suggest notable heterogeneity in bird indices over time, with subwatersheds of higher initial richness tending to maintain or increase their relative abundance. Although definitive results are forthcoming, we anticipate that wetland easements will demonstrate positive but uneven effects on biodiversity measures. By providing timely, causal estimates of conservation easement efficacy, this research contributes to economic valuation of wetland ecosystem services and informs policymakers and land managers aiming to optimize investments in habitat protection. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360754 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | This conference was part of the sessions of the French Academy of Agriculture (Paris, September 17, 2025). Proposed by members of Section 3 of the Academy (René Baumont and Françoise Médale), the session was entitled: "Organic Livestock Farming: Today and Tomorrow." Among the presentations delivered by various speakers within this framework, this one focused on the dynamics of the market for organic animal products in France. |
| Abstract: | Cette conférence s'inscrit dans le cadre des Séances de l'Académie d'Agriculture de France (Paris, 17 septembre 2025). Proposée par des membres de la section 3 de l'AAF (René Baumont et Françoise Médale), cette séance avait pour titre général : « L'élevage biologique : aujourd'hui et demain ». Parmi les conférences présentées dans ce cadre par différents intervenants, celle-ci était focalisée sur la dynamique du marché des produits animaux bio en France. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Agricultural markets, Organic livestock farming, Organic agriculture, Marchés agricoles, Elevage biologique, Agriculture biologique |
| Date: | 2025–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05430711 |
| By: | Calil, Yuri Clements Daglia |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343928 |
| By: | Yu, Shuo |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Agricultural and Food Policy, Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:344060 |
| By: | Zhou, Qi; Yang, Lin; Chen, Luoye |
| Abstract: | As urbanization increasingly threatens food security, the preservation of arable land has become critical, prompting government interventions in land use to ensure food security. However, the effectiveness of these mandatory land-use strategies is often questioned due to the socio-economic complexities. This study utilizes China’s ALR policy as a natural experiment to assess the impact of arable land protection on food production. Employing satellite data and Difference-in-Differences with a continuous treatment model, the research examines agricultural outcomes in counties with different cropland restoration requirements before and after the implementation of the ALR policy. The findings suggest that the ALR policy likely reduces crop productivity. Although the sown area remains stable, there is a notable decrease in total grain output. Additionally, the study observes regional disparities. In Northeast China, the ALR policy has led to a notable decline in productivity with an increase in cropland restoration, resulting from substantially increased sown area without affecting grain production levels. This decline is likely due to the conversion of higher-quality farmland into lower-quality land. Conversely, in South China, the policy does not significantly affect crop productivity but results in a notable reduction in both the sown area and grain output. These effects are likely driven by labor shortages, which may lead to farmland abandonment despite restoration efforts. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360634 |
| By: | Mieno, Taro |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343697 |
| By: | Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing |
| Abstract: | Perennial bioenergy crops, such as miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues have the potential to scale up Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production and mitigate carbon emissions. However, high establishment costs, establishment lags, and risk and return profiles with bioenergy crops that differ from those of conventional crops can adversely affect incentives to produce them. We develop an economic model that incorporates spatially varying joint yield and price distributions for the multiple crop choices a farmer faces and apply it to examine the incentives for risk-averse, present-biased, and credit-constrained farmers to produce cellulosic feedstocks under various biomass prices. We link this model to a biogeochemical model to quantify the spatially varying carbon mitigation benefits from these feedstocks in the rainfed region of the United States. We also analyze the cost-effectiveness of two carbon payment policies: annual and upfront. We find that risk-averse, present-biased, or credit-constrained farmers prefer to grow the lower-yielding but less risky switchgrass and harvest corn stover instead of producing the lower carbon, higher-yielding but riskier feedstock miscanthus, resulting in lower SAF production. Upfront carbon payments incentivize higher quantities of less carbon-intensive SAF production by risk-averse, credit-constrained, and present-biased farmers because they offset a part of the establishment costs of miscanthus. We also find that when farmers are credit-constrained, upfront payments are more cost-effective in terms of carbon mitigation per dollar spent. In contrast, annual payments are more cost-effective when farmers can access credit. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360769 |
| By: | Alex, Leslie Joy; Maredia, Mywish K.; Tschirley, David; Wineman, Ayala |
| Abstract: | Beyond its direct impacts on agricultural productivity, irrigation infrastructure is used by policy makers to achieve other objectives like food security, job creation, and , more broadly, poverty reductionHowever, the evidence required by policy makers while formulating national irrigation plans is often not adequately available due to two reasons. First, irrigation’s causal impact is hard to isolate due to endogeneity in infrastructure placement. While econometric methods address this, they do not fully resolve the issue. Second, and more importantly, national level evidence on the causal impacts of irrigation is hard to come by. This is especially true in African countries, where the impacts of irrigation are not as extensively documented as they are in other parts of the global south. This study addresses the above gaps in the literature by developing a novel empirical framework that integrates a national sample censushousehold survey, community-level irrigation access, and administrative records on irrigation infrastructure to evaluate the impact of irrigation schemes in Tanzania. Specifically, we assess impacts on agricultural productivity, production costs, livestock holdings, poverty indicators, and food consumption. Beyond its empirical contributions, this study introduces a methodological innovation to compare villages with and without irrigation schemes while addressing endogeneity concerns. Rather than focusing solely on geographic and engineering determinants of irrigation placement, we incorporate socioeconomic and political-economy factors alongside hydrological and agroecological considerations—an approach never applied in previous studies to the best of our knowledge. We combine the 2020 National Sample Census of Agriculture with a national irrigation database that classifies schemes by hydrological feasibility and political priority. Using geospatial identifiers, census communities are matched to irrigation schemes, and we implement two increasingly stringent definitions of potential control communities to verify the robustness of our causal estimates. Our treatment identification strategy employs propensity score matching at the village level, followed by regression analyses of household-level outcomes. By integrating political-economy, agropolitical economyecological, and hydrological factors, this study provides a more complete and accurate understanding of irrigation’s role in agricultural and economic resilience. Finally, this study provides timely evidence on the implications of public irrigation investment by providing valuable evidence during a period of renewed interest in expanding irrigation infrastructure by the Government of Tanzania. Over the past two years, the Government of Tanzania has made substantial financial commitments to enhance irrigation infrastructure nationwide. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to implement the provisions of the National Irrigation Master Plan (National Irrigation Commission, 2022). As such, there is renewed interest among policymakers in Tanzania in understanding the broader impacts of public investments in irrigation infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360990 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Laurent Piet (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | This conference serves as an introduction to a mini-series devoted to the competitiveness of agricultural holdings. Entitled "Farmers' Income in France: Measurement, Trends, and Dispersion, " it reviews the various definitions and indicators used to measure agricultural income, as well as the heterogeneity of the economic results of French agricultural holdings, in connection with their structures and performance. |
| Abstract: | Cette conférence s'inscrit en introduction d'une mini-série consacrée à la compétitivité des exploitations agricoles. Intitulée "Le revenu des agriculteurs en France : mesure, évolution et dispersion", elle revient sur les différentes définitions et indicateurs de mesure du revenu agricole ainsi que sur l'hétérogénéité des résultats économiques des exploitations agricoles françaises, en lien avec leurs structures et leur performance. |
| Keywords: | FADN, Economic performance, Competitiveness, Agricultural income, RICA, Performances économiques, Compétitivité, Revenu agricole |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05430652 |
| By: | Zhao, Xialing; Fan, Linlin; Xu, Yilan; Baylis, Kathy; Heckelei, Thomas; Cao, An |
| Abstract: | Understanding how production shocks influence food prices is increasingly critical in a world facing climate change and growing dependence on international trade for crops. This study examines how production shocks influence crop prices by combining machine learning methods and gravity modeling. Using a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach with weather instruments selected via the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), we first predict crop production using high-resolution weather variables. The instruments exhibit strong predictive power and pass weak instrument tests. In the second stage, we find that increases in domestic production significantly reduce local prices, while the effects of production changes in trade partners vary across crops. Higher output by major sellers lowers rice prices but raises wheat prices, and greater production by major buyers increases maize and wheat prices. We estimate trade flows using a structural gravity model, incorporating WTO membership, free trade agreements (FTA), and border effects. Results show that WTO membership significantly promotes wheat trade, while border frictions tend to reduce trade volumes, especially after 2010. These findings highlight the complex transmission mechanisms of production shocks through global trade networks and underscore the importance of accounting for both supply and demand channels when evaluating food price dynamics and international food security. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361040 |
| By: | Ferraro, Gregory H.; Brown, Zachary S.; Reisig, Dominic |
| Abstract: | Traditional agricultural extension in the US and elsewhere uses a ‘knowledge transfer’ model focused on disseminating results of public agricultural research to farmers. Yet extension is often tasked with helping farmers solve problems that require collective action, such as pesticide resistance and water management, for which technical information provision alone is often ineffective or even counterproductive. Informed by the study of socioecological systems, we conducted a pilot test of an extension messaging strategy which appealed to heterogeneous farming community norms and values. Among 209 participants in 14 agricultural extension meetings held across eastern North Carolina in 2023, we randomized the content of extension presentations aimed at increasing farmers’ use of non-Bt corn, Zea mays L., refuges to slow insect pests’ evolution of resistance to transgenic Bt corn. Using an incentivized economic game for measuring ‘conditional cooperation’ in common-pool resource management, we elicited participants’ baseline willingness to cooperate (WTC) with their neighbors in a framed vignette about collective control of herbicide-resistant weeds. We also recorded participation in local drainage management organizations (DMOs), which we hypothesized would predict levels of social capital and conditional cooperation. As hypothesized, we confirm that participation in DMOs predicted more cooperative gameplay. Extension presentations with cooperative norm activation v. an information-only control significantly increased Bt refuge planting intentions only for those with lower baseline WTC, contradicting another of our hypotheses. These findings point to the potential effectiveness of tailoring messaging about cooperation and community values in extension communication, using specialists’ on-the-ground knowledge of community-level social capital. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361203 |
| By: | Rabbitt, Matthew P.; Reed-Jones, Madeline; Hales, Laura J.; Suttles, Shellye; Burke, Michael P. |
| Abstract: | This report provides statistics on food security in U.S. households throughout 2024 based on the Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, in December 2024. An estimated 86.3 percent of U.S. households were food secure throughout the entire year in 2024, with access at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life for all household members. The remaining households (13.7 percent, not statistically significantly different from the 13.5 percent in 2023 or 12.8 percent in 2022) were food insecure at least some time during the year. Very low food security is the more severe range of food insecurity where one or more household members experience reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns at times during the year because of limited money or other resources for food. In 2024, 5.4 percent of households were very low food secure, an estimate that is statistically similar to the 5.1 percent in 2023 and 5.1 percent in 2022. Children and adults were food insecure at times during 2024 in 9.1 percent of U.S. households with children, statistically similar to the 8.9 percent in 2023 and 8.8 percent in 2022. In 2024, very low food security among children was 0.9 percent, statistically similar to the 1.0 percent in 2023 and 1.0 percent in 2022. In 2024, the typical food-secure household spent 11.1 percent more on food than the typical food-insecure household of the same size and household composition. During the month before the 2024 survey, about 58.9 percent of food-insecure households participated in one or more of the three largest Federal nutrition assistance programs: the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP); the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC); and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:386180 |
| By: | Ge, Houtian; Gomez, Miguel I.; Peters, Christian J. |
| Abstract: | Fresh fruits and vegetables typically have a limited shelf life due to their high moisture content and perishable nature. The contemporary food system provides consumers with convenience, extensive choice, and the year-round availability of fresh produce. In this paper, these achievements are recognized within the context of the associated food loss. While a considerable amount of the academic literature has examined the root issues behind food waste generation in the stages of food production and consumption, very few studies have investigated the food loss of the transport components of food supply chains. This analysis adds to the existing literature by considering the food loss associated with the aggregation and distribution of fresh produce products consumed by American households. We use a two-stage hybrid approach to identify the most efficient fresh produce assembly and distribution patterns. In the first stage, the facility location problem is formulated as a cost minimization problem. The result obtained in the first stage is used in the second stage to develop a food loss minimization problem to optimize the design of the supply chain network. This approach allows the simultaneous consideration of two dimensions of sustainability including food loss and the total cost of the supply chain design. The proposed approach generates a tradeoff analysis between food loss and associated costs for making informed decisions on designing sustainable supply chains. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360636 |
| By: | Rabbitt, Matthew P.; Reed-Jones, Madeline; Hales, Laura J.; Suttles, Shellye; Burke, Michael P. |
| Abstract: | Report Introduction: This supplement provides statistics on component items of the household food security measure, the frequency of occurrence of food-insecure conditions, and selected statistics on household food security, food spending, and the use of Federal and community food and nutrition assistance programs. It complements the Household Food Security in the United States in 2024 report (Rabbitt et al., 2025), which provides the primary national statistics on household food security, food spending, and the use of Federal food and nutrition assistance programs by food-insecure households. The statistics presented here are based on data collected in the Current Population Survey (CPS) Food Security Supplement (FSS) conducted in December 2024. Information about the survey, data, and methods is available in the Household Food Security in the United States in 2024 report (Report No. ERR-358). All statistics were calculated by applying the FSS weights to the responses of surveyed households to obtain nationally representative prevalence estimates. Unless otherwise noted, statistical differences described in the text are significant at the 90-percent confidence level. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersap:386179 |
| By: | Arora, Utkarsh; Ali, Saif; Barsinge, Anjuman; Arora, Gaurav |
| Abstract: | Enacted in 2006, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) instituted a large public works program that provides 100 days of assured employment to volunteering members of rural households in India. It is implemented at the village level by the local government, called the Gram Panchayat, which undertakes development projects considered important to the village community using funds allocated through MGNREGA. This paper studies the impact of MGNREGA-based water conservation through farm ponds on agricultural land use patterns within Gram Panchayats. It looks at how farm pond construction influences land use transitions from single cropping in one year to multiple cropping in the next and vice versa. Farm ponds can increase soil moisture, provide irrigation water storage facilities, and serve as a means of livelihood through pisciculture or animal husbandry. Economic adaptation to such changes by households can cause shifts in local agricultural land use patterns. We find that the construction of new farm ponds in a Gram Panchayat drives a 4% (2.2%-6.1%) year-on-year increase in single to double/triple-cropping transitions while reducing the transitions in the reverse direction. Preexisting farm ponds and previous cropping patterns in the Gram Panchayat also play a significant role in determining the extent and direction of transitions. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods through water conservation initiatives. This research combines national scale with a fine Gram Panchayatlevel granularity bringing together a unique spatial data repository comprising a variety of variables related to natural and built environments as well as administrative data which can potentially generate wide-ranging research opportunities in empirical economics and applied econometrics. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361116 |
| By: | Tsiboe, Francis |
| Abstract: | This white paper examines the economic implications of eliminating prevented planting (PP) buy-up coverage under the Federal Crop Insurance Program and evaluates whether producers can offset lost protection through higher base coverage levels. Using administrative evidence on coverage elections and premium structures, the analysis shows that coverage-level substitution provides only a partial and nonlinear replacement for former buy-up protection and becomes infeasible as producers approach the 85 percent coverage ceiling. Most insured acres were already concentrated at high coverage levels prior to elimination, limiting adjustment capacity for many producers. Observed responses following earlier buy-up removals indicate modest shifts toward higher coverage among former buy-up users, but incomplete restoration of PP protection. Under the 2018 Farm Bill, declining subsidy rates would have rendered substitution prohibitively costly. Enhanced premium subsidies under the One Big Beautiful Bill substantially reduce (but do not eliminate) these cost increases, producing uneven distributional effects that depend on initial coverage positions rather than PP risk alone. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwp:386196 |
| By: | Khusru, Amir; Tronstad, Russell; Aradhyula, Satheesh |
| Abstract: | The primary goal of this research is to determine whether Pasture Rangeland Forage – Rainfall Index (PRF-RI) insurance has any effect on our food supply in the form of influencing county level beef cow inventories in the United States. For all other crop insurance products, except those tied to just price insurance, premiums and indemnity claims are tied to prior and or current production. However, PRF-RI is different in the sense that it has very little to do with actual yield/production, prices, or revenues and indemnities are driven by rainfall received. PRF-RI was introduced in the United States in 2007 in a few states, and by 2016 it was available for all 48 contiguous states. We analyze county-level percentage age changes in beef cow inventories as our dependent variable and consider independent variables such as; average Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the April-October grazing season, cumulative grazing season degree days (>34°C), cumulative grazing season county-level precipitation, Log of the US beef cow and state level hay price ratio, and county-level subsidies and indemnities provided by PRF-RI. Our time period spans from 2002 to 2023. We estimated county, county-time, and just county fixed effect models plus cyclical time trend variables. Our climate variables of average grazing season PDSI, cumulative grazing season degree days, precipitation, and quadratic term of precipitation all align with prior literature on being positive, negative, positive, and negative, respectively. The Log of the beef and hay price ratio has a positive and significant effect on annual county level beef cow inventories. Our estimated results indicate that neither subsidy, indemnities, nor the availability of PRF-RI have a statistically significant impact on beef cow inventories at the mean. In addition, PRF-RI may be causing more variation in beef cow inventories rather than less. PRF-RI subsides have grown from $151.2 million in 2016 to $805.8 million in 2025 with $6.9 billion in liabilities and taxpayers have not been getting anything back in return in the form of a more stable or reliable food supply. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361176 |
| By: | Balaji, S. J.; Nithyashree, M. L.; Birthal, Pratap S. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:383748 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | This lecture is part of the Sessions of the French Academy of Agriculture (Paris, May 7, 2025). Organized by Sections 4 and 10 in partnership with the SFER and dedicated to the memory of Lucien Bourgeois, the overall theme of the session was: "Farmers' Income in France: Trends, Dispersion, and Prospects." Among the five lectures presented by different speakers, this one focused on the economic performance of farms and the dispersion of agricultural incomes in France. |
| Abstract: | Cette conférence s'inscrit dans le cadre des Séances de l'Académie d'Agriculture de France (Paris, 7 mai 2025). Proposée par les sections 4 et 10 en partenariat avec la SFER et dédiée à la mémoire de Lucien Bourgeois, cette séance avait pour titre général : « Le revenu des agriculteurs en France : évolution, dispersion et perspectives ». Parmi les cinq conférences présentées dans ce cadre par différents intervenants, celle-ci était focalisée sur la performance économique des exploitations et la dispersion des revenus agricoles en France. |
| Keywords: | Economic performance, Competitiveness, Agricultural income, FADN, RICA, Performances économiques, Compétitivité, Revenu agricole |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05430692 |
| By: | Somerville, Scott; Mérel, Pierre; Hadacheck, Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | Nitrate pollution threatens human health and ecosystems in many regions of the world. Although scientists agree that nitrogen compounds from human activity, notably agriculture, enter groundwater systems, empirical estimates of the impacts of land use on nitrate concentrations in well water are still lacking. We provide evidence of such impacts by combining nitrate concentration measurements from 6, 016 groundwater wells with remotely sensed California land use data from 2007–2023. We categorize agricultural land uses according to crops’ propensities to leach nitrogen and further consider high- and low-density urban development, in addition to undeveloped land—the default land use. Results show that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of land used to grow high-nitrogen crops within 500 meters of a well is associated with a 12% increase in nitrate concentrations a decade later. The same increase in low-intensity urban development is associated with a 10% increase. Local cattle populations also contribute to nitrate pollution. When conditioning on initial nitrate measurements, the impact of nearby land use on future nitrate concentrations attenuates and is imprecisely estimated, demonstrating the legacy nature of nitrate leaching into groundwater. A calculation based on our regression estimates further implies that replacing high-nitrogen with low-nitrogen crops around our sample of wells would achieve a 4.8% reduction in nitrate concentrations, saving municipal water systems approximately $25 million annually. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361194 |
| By: | Guo, Jiawei; Kiesel, Kristin; Sexton, Richard J. |
| Abstract: | The United States and many other countries seek to expand the production and consumption of organic products as a pathway to achieving their agricultural sustainability goals. However, organic fraud, mislabeling conventional products as organic, presents a significant threat to achieving these goals. It can result in the classic adverse selection problem, reducing price premiums for organic products and dissipating farmers’ incentives to convert land to organic production. This paper explicates concerns regarding organic fraud and presents an econometric test in the context of international shipments of organic commodities that can help identify instances of organic fraud. We apply the empirical framework to organic shipments of grains and oilseeds to the United States. Using data from multiple sources, we estimate econometric models to explain organic grain and oilseed shipments as a function of the conventional–organic price spread, the EU–US organic price spread, and control variables to test the hypothesis that the magnitude of the conventional–organic spread incentivizes mislabeling of conventional product as organic and, thus, creates organic fraud. Preliminary results reveal a positive correlation between shipments labeled as organic and the conventional–organic price spread, supporting the main hypothesis of the paper. We conclude that significant opportunities exist to commit organic fraud, especially in the context of international trade. Such fraud, as it becomes more widely known, can threaten efforts to expand production and consumption of genuine organic foods. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360830 |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Ali, Daniel A. |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a rich set of geo-coded administrative and remotely sensed data on more than 1 million agricultural land transactions in Ukraine to explore how informality, size, and recent land reforms affect land prices. Three main findings are highlighted. First, absence of registered rights generates large negative externalities, the size of which plausibly exceeds the cost of registering all land. By contrast, informality of lease contracts is a choice that may enable owners to evade regulatory obstacles that prevent them from renegotiating contracts to obtain more favorable terms. Second, while land market liberalization generated significant indirect benefits, gains are unevenly distributed. Furthermore, competition in sales markets remains limited, pointing to scope for measures—including reducing the transaction costs of selling land and accessing mortgage finance, improving publicity of pending land sales, and use of electronic auctions—to enhance the reforms’ impact on efficiency and equity. Third, size at the parcel, field, and farm levels is associated with higher per hectare prices, pointing to scope for market-based land consolidation and growth of medium-size farms to increase land values and productivity. Achieving this potential will require measures to limit speculative land acquisition and exercise of market power by making local land markets more competitive and using market-based land valuation as a basis for taxing land on a recurrent basis and any capital gains due to land appreciation. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361025 |
| By: | Zhang, Yifei; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Cavigelli, Michel A.; White, Kathryn E.; Knight, Lynn; Dell, Curtis; Hollinger, David; Lane, Erin D. |
| Abstract: | The practice of no-till farming has gained attention in agriculture due to its potential to improve soil health, deliver environmental benefits, and increase farmers’ profits. Despite these agronomic and ecological benefits, national adoption remains limited, with only 27.5% of cropland under no-till in 2022 (USDA-NASS, 2024). A central barrier to broader adoption is uncertainty about the long-term economic returns of no-till, given variation across soil types, crops, and management practices. This study assesses the net economic impact of sustained no-till use over 30 years, utilizing plot-level data from long-term field trials conducted in Ohio and Michigan. We quantify treatment effects on crop yields and input costs using site-by-crop fixed effects models and calculate net changes in profitability via partial budgeting that accounts for seed, fertilizer, pesticide, and field operation costs. Our results indicate that no-till consistently reduces operational costs and generates positive net returns relative to chisel tillage, even when accounting for yield variation across sites. These findings suggest that long-term use of no-till farming has great potential to offer a significant positive impact on farmers' profitability. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361069 |
| By: | Sebaq, Mohamed |
| Keywords: | Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343680 |
| By: | Tobias-Mamina, Rejoice; Jordaan, Yolanda; Lin, Lin; Ortega, David L. |
| Abstract: | High meat consumption in South Africa is driven by population growth, increased income, and urbanization. However, high meat production raises environmental and societal concerns, highlighting the need to shift toward more sustainable protein sources to reduce these impacts. This study examines consumer preferences for plant-based, insect-based, and cultured meat as alternatives, alongside the effects of environmental and health information and naming restrictions on these preferences. A food choice experiment was administered on 1, 013 urban South African food shoppers to assess preferences for three alternative burger patties relative to farm-raised beef patties. Respondents were randomly assigned to treatments varying by health, environmental, and product naming information. Results indicate that farm-raised beef captures approximately 96% of the market share within our sample of urban food shoppers. Naming restrictions do not significantly affect beef demand but increase the market share for plant-based and cultured alternatives. Health information leads to slightly higher preferences for plant-based options than environmental information. Preference for insect-based alternatives remains low, likely due to an aversion to insects. These findings enhance understanding of consumer preferences for alternative meat products and naming restrictions, informing policies aimed at reducing the environmental and societal impacts of livestock production in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360835 |
| By: | Menezes, Tais; Countryman, Amanda M. |
| Abstract: | African swine fever (ASF) represents a serious threat to the U.S. pork industry and global agricultural markets due to its high mortality rate and the absence of a commercial vaccine. This study evaluates the potential economic consequences of a hypothetical ASF outbreak in the U.S. using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model. For our preliminary analysis, we simulate four outbreak scenarios, varying in scale and trade disruption, to estimate impacts on production, trade flows, prices, and welfare across major global regions. Preliminary results indicate that small, localized outbreaks have limited domestic and global economic effects, while large-scale outbreaks could trigger severe welfare losses for the U.S. (up to $11.4 billion), along with substantial price increases and trade realignments. Competing exporters such as Canada, Brazil, and the European Union benefit from reduced U.S. market presence, while import-dependent regions face welfare losses. Welfare decomposition analysis reveals that U.S. losses in small outbreaks are driven primarily by deteriorating terms of trade, whereas losses in large outbreaks stem from technological shocks to domestic productivity. Although preliminary, these findings highlight the importance of early detection, containment, and international regionalization agreements as key strategies to mitigate economic disruption. The study provides evidence to inform U.S. animal health policy and highlights the global interdependence of pork markets in the face of transboundary animal diseases. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360646 |
| By: | Short, Gianna |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343951 |
| By: | Joaquin Ameller Pavez (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sophie Drogué (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Kaleab Baye (AAU - Addis Ababa University); Noora Kanerva (Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki); Agnes Le Port (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Marinel Hoffman (University of Pretoria [South Africa]); Abdelrahman Lubowa (MAK - Makerere University [Kampala, Ouganda]); Gaston Ampe Tumuhimbise; Mikael Fogelholm (Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki); Natalia Rosa-Sibakov (University of Eastern Finland, VTT - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland); Marie-Josephe Amiot (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | A growing body of literature has emerged using mathematical models for diet optimization under multiple constraints nutrient needs, food preference, environmental impact, affordability. In the present study addressing malnutrition, we focus on modeling healthy, economically affordable, and culturally acceptable diets for vulnerable African people, specifically targeting women of reproductive age 17 45 years) and their young children (0.5- 2 years) in eight African cities. Our goal is to provide optimized diets for consideration in future national dietary guidelines across four African countries Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, and Uganda. The present work is part of the European project InnoFoodAfrica "Locally driven co- development of plant based value chains towards more sustainable African food system with healthier diets and export potential » (www.innofoodafrica.eu). |
| Date: | 2025–08–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05393394 |
| By: | Shin, Hyeseon |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343657 |
| By: | Arteaga, Julian; Deininger, Klaus |
| Abstract: | As with most agricultural inputs, the optimal use of fertilizer leverages the production complementarities between different types of nutrients. Wide variation in the intensity of nutrient application rates suggests there are potentially large productivity gains to be had from rebalancing fertilizer use across nutrient types even under a fixed expenditure budget. Using detailed information on a large sample of rice fields across three states in eastern India, this paper investigates whether a more balanced use of fertilizer—measured as the ratio of potash to nitrogen applied to a field—can lead to higher yields and revenues. To address the endogeneity of fertilizer application decisions, the analysis exploits the fact that nitrogen-based fertilizers demanded by Indian farmers are mostly produced domestically in a limited number of manufacturing plants, while all potash-based fertilizers must be imported by ship from abroad. Instrumenting for the ratio of potassium-to-nitrogen fertilizer applied on a field with the relative travel distances between farmers’ villages and both the nearest urea production plant and the nearest international port, the paper estimates the impact of more balanced fertilizer use on yields and revenues. The estimates show that at median levels of fertilizer use, and keeping the level of expenditure on fertilizers constant, rebalancing fertilizer application choices such that the potassium-to-nitrogen ratio of fertilizer is doubled would lead to a 4.8 percent increase in yield. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361015 |
| By: | Li, Xinrong; Xuan, Zhichong; Zhao, Qiran; Yang, Boqiong; Wei, Hanlin |
| Abstract: | Household refrigerators are rapidly diffusing through low- and middle-income countries, yet their implications for the nutrition transition remain unclear. Using panel data from China’s Fixed Observation Rural Survey (2003–2018), our study performs fixed-effects models and the instrumental variables approach to explores how the household refrigerator ownership effects nutrition transition in rural China. The results show that ownership is associated with lower daily cereal intake and higher consumption of fruits, vegetables, eggs, aquatic products, and meat (all p < 0.01), indicating a shift towards nutrient-dense foods. However, total dietary fat also increases and the household Healthy Eating Index does not improve, suggesting an incomplete move toward balanced diets. Findings suggest that promoting modern storage devices like household refrigerators alone is not enough to raise the population’s overall nutritional status. Strengthening healthy eating education is also needed to help individuals plan balanced meals and avoid excessive intake of high-fat foods. The findings offer empirical support and policy insights from China, providing guidance for developing countries seeking to alleviate the triple burden of malnutrition. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360885 |
| By: | Mallory, Mindy; Peng, Rundong; Ma, Meilin; Wang, H. Holly |
| Abstract: | Price transmission has been studied extensively in agricultural economics through the lens of spatial and vertical price relationships. Classical time-series econometric techniques suffer from the “curse of dimensionality” and are applied almost exclusively to small sets of price series — either prices of one commodity in a few regions or prices of a few commodities in one region. However, an agrifood supply chain usually contains several commodities (e.g., cattle and beef) and spans numerous regions. Failing to jointly examine multi-region, multi-commodity price relationships limits researchers’ ability to derive insights from increasingly high-dimensional price datasets of agrifood supply chains. We apply a machine-learning method – specifically, regularized regression – to augment the classical vector error correction model (VECM) and study large spatial-plus-vertical price systems. Leveraging weekly provincial-level data on the piglet-hog-pork supply chain in China, we uncover economically interesting changes in price relationships in the system before and after the outbreak of a major hog disease. To quantify price transmission in the large system, we rely on the spatial-plus-vertical price relationships identified by the regularized VECM to visualize comprehensive spatial and vertical price transmission of hypothetical shocks through joint impulse response functions. Price transmission shows considerable heterogeneity across regions and commodities as the VECM outcomes imply and display different dynamics over time. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361074 |
| By: | Tian, Xi; Cai, Chechen; Grant, Jason H.; Zhu, Jing; Xie, Chaoping |
| Abstract: | Attention toward quality has been exacerbated by the recent significant increase in the demand for high quality products. Among firms trading internationally, quality shocks about one firm’s products may damage the group’s reputation. The ongoing debate on how government interventions in food safety capacity can address these issues. This study examines the effectiveness of China’s Export Quality and Safety Demonstration (EQSD) program, a policy initiative designed to improve products’ quality in the agricultural sector by imposing strict regulations during domestic agri-food value chain. Utilizing firm-product-destination level data from 2009 to 2015, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the program’s impact on exports. Our findings reveal that EQSD significantly enhances export performance, with heterogeneous effects across different ownership types, various products and counties. Furthermore, the program’s effectiveness is more pronounced in countries with better economic development, stricter regulations, or more homogeneity. We identify three key mechanisms driving these effects: cost reduction, quality improvement and trade facilitation. Surprisingly, we found that this export promotion policy also benefits industrial upgrading. This research contributes to the literature on export promotion, NTMs and industrial upgrading, offering valuable insights for policymakers in designing targeted interventions to boost agricultural exports amid complex global trade barriers. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361011 |
| By: | Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Lark, Tyler J.; Naugle, Dave; Morford, Scott |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the durability of conservation outcomes from the USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest payment for ecosystem services program in the United States. Program durability, as indicated by the longevity or persistence of perennial vegetative cover, is important given the ability of such conservation cover to provide and sustain key ecosystem services relative to croplands. We use point-level data on land use and land cover (NRI) to track outcomes over time. The data provides us with a unique long-term perspective into particularly the early entrants into the program, for which we are able to track post-CRP outcomes for 20 years. We find that the CRP has expanded conservation cover by incentivizing landowners to replace croplands with non-crop grass and tree cover. Average durability (survival time) of such conservation cover post-CRP is about 4.2 years, with most points in our sample reverting back to cropland within the first year. Factors such as location, biomass productivity, drought, proportion of irrigated areas in landscape, prevalence of land abandonment each contribute expected durability. We discuss implications for program design and highlight tradeoffs with additionality and program cost effectiveness when policymakers target durability. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361149 |
| By: | Christian P. Traeger; Christian Träger |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the challenge of accurately modeling and estimating climate change damages. Time series approaches rely on weather shocks, while cross-sectional analyses capture climatic differences but suffer from omitted variable bias. Climate is defined as the statistical pattern of weather that persists over time and allows for adaptation, unlike unpredictable weather realizations. To assess econometric approaches, I (i) integrate forward-looking adaptation into a full-fledged integrated assessment model of climate change permitting an analytic solution and (ii) generalize the insights based on a dynamic stochastic envelope argument. I show how a carefully designed time series (or panel) estimation strategy can comprehensively identify the costs of climate change, including the indirect identification of unobserved adaptation costs. The paper also presents the first explicit formula for This result is not only insightful in its own right but also valuable for clarifying and refining prevailing envelope-theorem arguments in the literature and for emphasizing that adaptation costs are part of the social cost of carbon. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, climate change, climate econometrics, damages, integrated assess- ment, social cost of carbon, uncertainty, identification |
| JEL: | Q54 H23 D80 D62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12353 |
| By: | Long, Yanxu |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, International Development |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343677 |
| By: | Jain, Rajni; Ashok, Arathy; Nisha; Kumar, Vikas |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:383745 |
| By: | Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Kentaro Yamada |
| Abstract: | Crop residue burning continues to pose major environmental, economic, and public health challenges in ASEAN. While the region has issued guidelines and advanced various initiatives, adoption of sustainable residue management practices remains uneven. Crop residues, however, are not merely a waste product – they are an underutilised resource with significant potential for creating new value chains, supporting rural incomes, and contributing to the region’s climate, circular economy and inclusive energy transition. A mix of public, private, and international financial mechanisms – ranging from incentives and concessional loans to carbon credits, private investment in infrastructure, and digital finance – can help small landholding farmers shift away from burning. Yet these measures require credible monitoring systems, stronger design, clearer time horizons, and better integration with technologies and market development. This brief outlines key financial strategies suited to ASEAN’s diverse agricultural landscapes and provides policy recommendations to support a long-term transition away from crop burning. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-14 |
| By: | Paudel, Ujjwol |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Production Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343821 |
| By: | Akinwehinmi, Oluwagbenga; Liesbeth, Colen; Vincenzina, Caputo |
| Abstract: | Aflatoxin contamination in food poses severe health risks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet many consumers are unaware of their exposure. Moreover, most food markets in these countries are not regulated for food safety and lack credible mechanisms to signal food safety. This study investigates how market-specific exposure information influences consumers' beliefs about their perceived health risk of and exposure to aflatoxin contamination, and willingness to pay (WTP) for tested, certified, and untested maize flour. Based on test results from 150 maize flour samples taken at five informal markets, we generated market-specific exposure to aflatoxin contamination. Using an incentive-compatible discrete choice experiment (DCE) with a random information treatment, we estimated WTP among 370 consumers in Northern Nigeria. The findings reveal that tailored, market-specific information resulted in the most significant updates of belief about exposure to unsafe food, large premiums for tested and certified maize flour, and the largest discount for untested maize flour. Heterogeneity analysis shows that belief updating significantly explains the discount. Findings underscore the potential of market-specific information to mitigate consumer exposure to food safety risks, promote safer food markets, and inform food safety policies in LMICs. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360883 |
| By: | Jumrani, Jaya |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:383747 |
| By: | Bolotova, Yuliya |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Marketing, Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343553 |
| By: | Macchiavello, Rocco (University of Warwick); Miquel-Florensa, Josepa (Toulouse School of Economics); de Roux, Nicolás (Universidad de los Andes); Verhoogen, Eric (Columbia University); Bernasconi, Mario (University of Basel); Farrell, Patrick (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Do the returns to quality upgrading pass through supply chains to primary producers? We explore this question in the context of Colombia’s coffee sector, in which market outcomes depend on interactions between farmers, exporters (which operate mills), and international buyers, and contracts are for the most part not legally enforceable. We formalize the hypothesis that quality upgrading is subject to a key hold-up problem: producing high-quality beans requires long-term investments by farmers, but there is no guarantee that an exporter will pay a quality premium when the beans arrive at its mills. An international buyer with sufficient demand for high-quality coffee can solve this problem by imposing a vertical restraint on the exporter, requiring the exporter to pay a quality premium to farmers. Combining internal records from two exporters, comprehensive administrative data, and the staggered rollout of a buyer-driven quality-upgrading program, we find empirical support for the key theoretical predictions. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that quality upgrading can provide a path to higher incomes for farmers, but also that it is unlikely to be viable under standard market conditions in the sector. |
| Keywords: | buyer-driven voluntary standards, vertical restraints, relational contracts, quality upgrading |
| JEL: | O12 F61 L23 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18335 |
| By: | Islam, Mujahidul; Klaiber, H. Allen |
| Abstract: | As solar energy infrastructure rapidly expands across the U.S., particularly on agricultural land, it increasingly competes with farmland conservation efforts such as the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). This study investigates whether utility-scale solar development undermines ACEP enrollment, focusing on spatial and temporal substitution patterns between these two land uses. Drawing on a county-level panel dataset spanning 2002 to 2022 across the contiguous U.S., this study employs discrete-time hazard and competing risks models to estimate the timing and probability of ACEP enrollment relative to solar land conversion. Findings reveal that ACEP enrollment and solar development rarely coincide within the same county-year, indicating emerging substitution. While cumulative solar presence may, in some cases, trigger defensive conservation efforts, large-scale solar installations are generally associated with lower ACEP enrollment, especially in high-farmland, rural regions. Urban and high-saturation counties, by contrast, exhibit stronger institutional continuity and peer effects driving conservation. These results suggest a growing land-use conflict between climate mitigation and agricultural preservation goals, calling for integrated policy solutions such as adaptive easement designs or differentiated incentives to reconcile conservation with renewable energy expansion. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361206 |
| By: | Braulio Britos (InternationalMonetaryFund); Manuel Hernandez (International Food Policy Research Institute); Danilo Trupkin (Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | International migration has surged in recent years, especially from rural areas in developing countries. This paper examines how agricultural distortions contribute to these emigration patterns and affect welfare, using Guatemala as a case study. A structural model with agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, estimated with micro and aggregated data, shows that distortions drive emigration among more productive agents and cause factor misallocation, diminishing overall productivity and incomes. Reducing distortions to the most efficient departments lowers emigration by 2.3 points and raises agricultural productivity by 30.1% and median welfare by 4.5%. High-distortion areas are more isolated and lack institutional and financial access. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural distortions, Emigration, Labor mobility, Productivity, Welfare |
| JEL: | O15 O13 J24 J61 R23 Q1 O40 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:wpaper:174 |
| By: | Akinwehinmi, Titilayo; Birgit, Gassler; Ramona, Teuber |
| Abstract: | Consumer resistance to novel food technologies, such as genetic modification (GM) and gene editing (GED), is often attributed to a limited understanding of the underlying scientific processes. Literature suggests that providing information about the processes may influence consumer acceptance, but evidence remains inconsistent across regions. This study examines how information on genetic engineering processes influences consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for genetically engineered foods in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where food and nutrition insecurity are pressing issues. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in Nigeria and a randomized experimental design, we subjected respondents to two types of information treatments: one emphasizing the health benefits of a nutritionally enhanced cassava product ("gari") and another that additionally explained the scientific processes behind conventional breeding, GM, GED. The data were analyzed using mixed logit models, comparing full attendance with stated and inferred attribute non-attendance (ANA) specifications. The results show consumers are willing to pay a premium for enhanced micronutrient content. However, information detailing scientific processes increased consumer aversion toward GM and GED methods. Importantly, providing process information significantly reduced instances of ANA behaviour, with stated ANA models offering the best fit to the data. While our findings suggest that efforts to scale up these technologies to address micronutrient deficiency and other nutrition insecurities in Africa are likely to succeed, other concerns about market prospects remain. We discuss these concerns and other market implications of the findings. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360897 |
| By: | Cooray, Ayesha; Wu, JunJie; Dorfman, Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | High-profile incidents of flooding, catastrophic lagoon breaches, and thousands of animal deaths have put a spotlight on the environmental risks associated with a geographically-concentrated hog industry and the annual storm season in North Carolina. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of swine feeding operations on surface water quality given existing permit protocols, examine the role of precipitation in exacerbating outcomes, and evaluate whether the current regulatory/permit system can be revised to better protect North Carolina’s water resources. Using inorganic nitrogen, phosphorus, and fecal coliform readings from surface water quality monitoring locations throughout the state, daily precipitation, and the list of permitted animal feeding operations, we estimate difference-in-difference models to compare surface water quality outcomes before and after excessive precipitation across monitoring locations. Our results indicate that excessive rain triggers levels of fecal coliform that exceed the Environmental Protection Agency’s safety standards for drinking, swimming, and boating at monitoring locations downstream of swine feeding operations. Given the low incidence of reported lagoon overflows in our period of analysis, our results suggest that runoff from manure applied ahead of extreme rainfall is the primary mechanism by which hog feeding facilities damage water resources in North Carolina. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360734 |
| By: | Résolus, Dany; Alcantara, Reymark; Wang, Chenggang; Che, Yuyuan; Wenxuan, Guo; Oluwatola, Adedeji |
| Abstract: | Cotton production in the Texas High Plains—a semi-arid region—is heavily dependent on supplemental irrigation due to highly variable and insufficient rainfall. With increasing water scarcity, optimizing irrigation practices has become essential for improving profitability and promoting sustainable resource use. This study employs a two-stage empirical framework to determine the optimal irrigation level for maximizing profit in cotton cultivation within the region. In the first stage, a fixed-effects panel regression model is estimated using plot-level data from multiple sites and years, capturing the nonlinear relationship between total water supply and cotton yield while controlling for biophysical and climatic variables. In the second stage, the estimated yield function will be embedded in an economic optimization model that incorporates actual cotton market prices and irrigation costs. Preliminary econometric results indicate a statistically significant, concave yield response to total water supply, consistent with diminishing marginal returns. Optimization results are currently under development and will be presented in subsequent versions of the study. These findings highlight the need for data-driven irrigation strategies and supportive policy interventions to enhance the economic and environmental sustainability of cotton farming in semi-arid agroecosystems. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360948 |
| By: | Liu, Dan; Liu, Yaru; Jin, Yanhong; Deng, Haiyan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the private sector in a middle-income country like China adapts to extreme heat through seed breeding innovation. While most existing research has focused on abiotic stress, such as drought and heat, we extend the analytical framework to include biotic stresses, specifically crop pest and disease exposure, a critical but often overlooked dimension of climate adaptation. We construct novel firm-level, crop-specific exposure measures of extreme heat and crop pests/diseases to investigate how both climate-related abiotic and biotic stressors influence the development of heat/drought-tolerant (HDT) and pest/disease-resistant (PDR) varieties at the firm level. Our results show that Chinese seed firms actively respond to climate pressures, increasing HDT varieties by 2.6% and PDR varieties by 9% for an additional harmful extreme heat degree-day, with significant variations across crops. Maize exhibits comprehensive adaptation across both HDT and PDR, rice focuses on PDR traits, while wheat shows limited responsiveness due to biological complexity and weaker market incentives. Breeding innovation responsiveness is stronger among private firms compared to state-owned enterprises and is most pronounced under the independent innovation model relative to inter-firm collaboration and private-public partnership models. We identify three key pathways driving these responses: increased farmer demand for climate-resilient seeds, heightened pest and disease pressures induced by extreme heat, and government policy signals, proxied by official communications addressing climate- and pest/disease-related issues. Furthermore, the adoption of improved varieties significantly mitigates crop yield loss caused by extreme heat exposure and pest/disease prevalence--PDR varieties reduce pest-related yield losses by 363.72 tons in rice and by 1, 342.27 tons in maize. However, adoption and mitigation effects in wheat remain limited due to biological and market constraints. These findings offer valuable policy insights for enhancing agricultural climate resilience. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361183 |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Francesco Amodio; Leonardo Baccini; Michele Di Maio |
| Abstract: | We show that weather shocks affect government trade policy decisions. We exploit variation in rainfall during the growing season within and across countries to show that weather shocks impact agricultural output and trade. Using information on tariff cuts by commodity from preferential trade agreements, we then show that weather shocks that happen during the negotiation period correlate strongly with the size of tariff cuts. When weather shocks increase (decrease) a country’s capacity to produce a given crop, its government negotiates a smaller (larger) tariff cut. These results are consistent with a political economy trade model with sector-specific inputs in which the government places more weight on producers relative to consumers in its objective function. They also reveal that governments update their beliefs about domestic agricultural production capacity in response to weather shocks. |
| Keywords: | weather shocks, climate change, agricultural trade, trade policy. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 Q17 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2401 |
| By: | Otgun, Hanifi; Fulginiti, Lilyan; Perrin, Richard |
| Abstract: | This paper provides regional level estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and its components in Turkish agriculture. Using a translog stochastic frontier model with monotonicity constraints, we decompose TFP growth into technical change and efficiency change across 26 NUTS-2 regions over 2013–2020. We also examine the relationship between technical efficiency and trade openness by integrating regional agricultural trade openness into the model as an (in)efficiency driver. These contributions address gaps in the existing literature by revealing regional TFP disparities in Türkiye and investigating the previously understudied link between technical efficiency and trade openness. Additionally, we explicitly control for climatic effects, including average temperature and precipitation in the frontier, to isolate weather-driven fluctuations from inefficiency. Our results highlight pronounced regional disparities, with export-oriented regions exhibiting higher efficiency. Moreover, trade openness is significantly and positively associated with technical efficiency, suggesting that greater integration with external markets may foster TFP growth in the Turkish agricultural sector. Climate variables show nuanced impacts, with moderate temperature and rainfall positively affecting agricultural output, while extreme conditions negatively impact yields. TFP growth is predominantly driven by technical change, while efficiency change slightly detracts from overall productivity gains. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361177 |
| By: | Bhandari, Nabin; Miao, Ruiqing |
| Abstract: | Valuing the agro-ecosystem services of birds can quantify the economic contribution of biodiversity and inform agricultural and conservation policies. Yet, no large-scale, generalizable study has assessed the contribution of birds to crop yields. Using county-level panel data for breeding birds in the United States over 1997-2014, we estimate the effects of grassland bird, insectivorous bird, and endangered bird biodiversity on corn and soybean yields in the presence of neonicotinoid use. We find that the yield effects vary by bird group: grassland birds contribute positively to corn and soybean yields, insectivorous birds contribute negatively, and endangered birds show no statistically significant effect. Neonicotinoid use diminishes both the beneficial and detrimental influences of birds on crop yields. When evaluated at sample means, grassland birds contribute to 11.52% of corn yield (an economic value of $9.3 billion per year), while their contribution to soybean yield is statistically insignificant. Neonicotinoid use contributes to 3.82% of corn yield and 7.02% of soybean yield, corresponding to annual economic values of $3.1 billion and $4.1 billion, respectively. Were grassland birds to become extinct, neonicotinoid use would need to increase by 219.43% to maintain current corn yield. Conversely, if neonicotinoid use were banned, then a 32.93% increase in grassland bird population could offset the resulting reduction in corn yield. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361197 |
| By: | Barnor, Kodjo; Kafle, Kashi |
| Abstract: | Frequent and intense rainfall shocks pose a serious threat to educational attainment in agrarian economies, yet the pathways through which these shocks operate remain underexplored. Using nationally representative panel data from the Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) and high-resolution rainfall measures from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)), we estimate the effects of extreme droughts and floods on children’s schooling in Tanzania. Exploiting variation in rainfall deciles, we show that extreme low-rainfall events below the 10th percentile lead to a roughly 10 percentage points decline in school enrollment, while moderate deviations have no significant impact. Severe drought effects persist across specifications with household and individual fixed effects and are especially large for adolescents (13–17 years) and girls, who face declines in enrollment of up to 19 percentage points. We find that droughts sharply increase household reliance on family labor, adding nearly 36 days per year without substantially altering hired-labor inputs or children’s involvement in farm work. Continuous rainfall measures (total rainfall and lagged rainfall) further corroborate that incremental increases in precipitation significantly boost both plot-level yields and village-level vegetation indices. We offer new evidence on the timing, heterogeneity, and channels through which climate variability undermines educational investment in Sub-Saharan Africa and underscores the urgency of integrated policy responses that bolster both agricultural resilience and school access. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361160 |
| By: | Almeida, Elena; Goumet, Laudine; Greenslade, Wallis; Waaifoort, Maria |
| Abstract: | Nature degradation and climate change are deeply interconnected crises that reinforce each other, exacerbating risks for the economy, financial system and societal wellbeing. This relationship is often described as the climate–nature nexus. • We identify five interactions within the climate–nature nexus: (1) the physical impacts of climate change contribute to nature degradation; (2) the physical impacts of nature degradation contribute to climate change; (3) climate mitigation and adaptation efforts can contribute to nature degradation; (4) environmental policy and legislation can delay the roll-out of climate mitigation projects; and (5) conserving nature can contribute to climate adaptation, mitigation and resilience. • For policymakers, adopting a systemic approach to the climate–nature nexus is no longer optional: considering climate and nature separately or sequentially in monetary, financial, economic and fiscal policymaking will leave blind spots in risk assessments, reduce the effectiveness of policy interventions, and overlook opportunities for co-benefits. • Central banks and financial supervisors need to improve their understanding of the risks and opportunities associated with the climate–nature nexus and adapt current tools or create new approaches to better take them into account. For example, nature degradation should be incorporated alongside climate change in supervisory expectations, risk assessments and scenario analyses. • Ministries of Finance sit at the heart of government decision-making and have a range of levers at their disposal to address the climate–nature nexus, including developing better decision support tools (e.g. natural capital accounting), broadening green taxonomies to include nature, catalysing cross-departmental work on harmful subsidy reform, and integrating nature criteria into public spending screening. |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130755 |
| By: | Fiechter, Chad; Kunwar, Binayak; Mallory, Mindy; Faller, Eugene |
| Abstract: | Grain producers face significant price uncertainty, and while exchange-traded derivatives like futures and options have been extensively studied, little is known about how farmers use structured over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. This study investigates how U.S. corn producers select among three structured OTC derivative products: Participation, Price Improvement, and Protection contracts, to hedge price risk. Using proprietary data on individual OTC corn derivative contracts provided by Marex Solutions, covering trades executed by U.S. farmers between 2022 and 2024, we adopt a two-stage analytical framework, employing XGBoost machine learning for variable selection and a multinomial logit model for economic interpretation. Our findings reveal distinct behavioral patterns: producers strongly prefer Price Improvement contracts during periods of low prices, Participation contracts at price extremes under moderate volatility, and underutilize Protection structures even when downside risks are pronounced. Counterfactual analysis demonstrates that Price Improvement strategies consistently yield the highest returns, outperforming other structures by 40 to 60 cents per bushel on average, suggesting potential suboptimal decision-making by farmers. This study offers new empirical insights into how producers engage with complex OTC instruments and contribute to the broader literature on commodity market behavior and agricultural finance. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360826 |
| By: | Barnor, Kodjo; Kafle, Kashi |
| Abstract: | Frequent and intense rainfall shocks pose a serious threat to educational attainment in agrarian economies, yet the pathways through which these shocks operate remain underexplored. Using nationally representative panel data from the Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) and high-resolution rainfall measures from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)), we estimate the effects of extreme droughts and floods on children’s schooling in Tanzania. Exploiting variation in rainfall deciles, we show that extreme low-rainfall events below the 10th percentile lead to a roughly 10 percentage points decline in school enrollment, while moderate deviations have no significant impact. Severe drought effects persist across specifications with household and individual fixed effects and are especially large for adolescents (13–17 years) and girls, who face declines in enrollment of up to 19 percentage points. We find that droughts sharply increase household reliance on family labor, adding nearly 36 days per year without substantially altering hired-labor inputs or children’s involvement in farm work. Continuous rainfall measures (total rainfall and lagged rainfall) further corroborate that incremental increases in precipitation significantly boost both plot-level yields and village-level vegetation indices. We offer new evidence on the timing, heterogeneity, and channels through which climate variability undermines educational investment in Sub-Saharan Africa and underscores the urgency of integrated policy responses that bolster both agricultural resilience and school access. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360983 |
| By: | Agossadou, Arsene; Valizadeh, Pourya; Nayga Jr., Rodolfo; Fischer, Bart |
| Abstract: | The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is a cornerstone of the U.S. social safety net, yet little is known about how recipients respond to unexpected disbursement shocks. We examine the behavioral effects of the early issuance of the February 2019 SNAP benefits in January, prompted by the 2018–2019 federal government shutdown. Using Nielsen IQ consumer panel data, we assess impacts on food expenditure, diet quality, food prices, and the SNAP benefit cycle. At the federal level, we leverage the exogenous timing shift, while at the state level, we apply a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the effectiveness of the adjustment made by some states in March–April disbursements. Results reveal an 8% decrease in February 2019 food expenditure, indicating a violation of the permanent income hypothesis. The effect is driven by states that issue benefits in the first week of the calendar month and states with low SNAP participation rates. Households paid lower food prices in the third week of February, followed by a drop in diet quality in the fourth week. Early disbursement also attenuates the typical SNAP benefit cycle. Our findings underscore the importance of disbursement timing in safeguarding food security during periods of policy disruption. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360895 |
| By: | Khadka, Tirsana; Fiechter, Chad |
| Abstract: | Farmers routinely form expectations about future commodity prices in the face of uncertainty. These beliefs influence financial planning, land valuation, and broader economic sentiment. However, little is known about how directional price expectations—such as anticipated increases or decreases—translate into farmers’ sentiment across multiple domains. This study uses direct survey responses from the Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to examine how subjective corn price expectations affect short- and long-term beliefs about farmland values, farm financial conditions, and the general agricultural economy. Drawing on repeated cross-sectional data and estimating ordered logistic regression models, we find that corn price expectations meaningfully shape farmers’ short-term outlooks, particularly regarding their own financial condition and the general U.S. agricultural economy. These effects are notably weaker for long-term expectations, especially those related to farmland values. Moreover, we observe asymmetric responses: expectations of price declines have a stronger influence on negative sentiment than price increases have on optimism, consistent with behavioral theories of loss aversion. Notably, this asymmetry does not extend to land value expectations, suggesting that belief formation varies across domains and planning horizons. Taken together, these findings offer new insight into the behavioral and temporal dimensions of agricultural decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360673 |
| By: | Gilbert, Rachel |
| Abstract: | Low and lower-middle income countries have declining rates of undernutrition as measured by micronutrient deficiencies or stunting, but a rising burden of other diet-related diseases such as diabetes and hypertension. Using household survey data from Malawi, one of the world’s lowest income countries, we find that the quality of diets rises with income up until incomes of approximately $2.60 international dollars per person per day (2021 PPP), well above the international poverty line ($2.15) but below the average cost of the least-expensive healthy diet available in Malawi ($3.03) (FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO, 2024b). The wealthiest households consume vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds below recommended thresholds, and consume more calories from starchy staples and discretionary foods than are needed for health. This results in lower diet quality in terms of risk factors for disease than could be achieved at that level of income. This evidence suggests that rising incomes alone may not sufficient to improve diets in extremely low-income settings over the long term, although income transfers remain imperative to improve diets and well-being of the poorest households. Targeted income increases among households with higher baseline diet quality appears better-suited to producing diet quality increases. Other approaches that target marginalized households or target specific food groups (fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts and seeds) may be needed to make significant diet quality improvements among the rest of the population. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361158 |
| By: | Econ Team, Verité Research; Abeysinghe, Subhashini; Arangala, Mathisha; Liyanage, Shalomi |
| Abstract: | Governments often mandate that traders secure permits before importing or exporting certain products to fulfill objectives such as protecting endangered species, endemic flora, and ensuring consumer safety. The time, cost, and unpredictability associated with obtaining these permits impact the competitiveness of businesses engaged in international trade. This research brief outlines steps to overcome various obstacles that hinder the streamlining, simplification, and automation of these processes to make them more business friendly. Using the issuance of forest permits for horticultural exports as a case study, it shows how adopting steps to facilitate trade can reduce trade costs and strengthen regulatory oversight. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:vrabpn:386160 |
| By: | Nicolas Berman (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Mathieu Couttenier (ENS de Lyon, Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict, CNRS and CEPR); Raphael Soubeyran (CEE-M, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between culture and environmental conservation through the lens of deforestation. Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2001- 2021, we show that changes of national leaders affect deforestation in a way that depends on the environmental culture of their ethnic group’s. We use data on folklore to measure the importance of forests in group-specific culture. We find that deforestation and land-intensive activities increase in the ethnic homelands of leaders whose ethnic groups have no or little forest-related culture. These patterns are reversed when the leader’s group has a salient forest culture. Our results suggest that culture is an important lever for environmental conservation in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Culture, Deforestation, Politics, Folklore, ethnicity, Africa |
| JEL: | Z1 Q5 D7 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2537 |
| By: | Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin; Beier, Felicitas; Humpenöder, Florian; Leip, Debbora; Crawford, Michael S.; Meng-Chuen Chen, David; von Jeetze, Patrick; Springmann, Marco; Soergel, Bjoern; Nicholls, Zebedee; Strefler, Jessica; Lewis, Jared; Heinke, Jens; Müller, Christoph; Karstens, Kristine; Weindl, Isabelle; Stevanović, Miodrag; Rein, Patrick; Sauer, Pascal; Mishra, Abhijeet; Molina Bacca, Edna Johanna; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Wang, Xiaoxi; Singh, Vartika; Hunecke, Claudia; Collignon, Quitterie; Schreinemachers, Pepijn; Dietz, Simon; Kanbur, Ravi; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The improvement of the global food system requires a thorough understanding of how specific measures may contribute to the system’s transformation. Here we apply a global food and land system modelling framework to quantify the impact of 23 food system measures on 15 outcome indicators related to public health, the environment, social inclusion and the economy, up to 2050. While all individual measures come with trade-offs, their combination can reduce trade-offs and enhance co-benefits. We estimate that combining all food system measures may reduce yearly mortality by 182 million life years and almost halves nitrogen surplus while offsetting negative effects of environmental protection measures on absolute poverty. Through joint efforts, including measures outside the food system, the 1.5 °C climate target can be achieved. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130069 |
| By: | Sapio, Silvia; Caso, Gerarda; Annunziata, Azzurra; Vecchioa, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | To satisfy consumer demand for convenient, tasty, and inexpensive products, Ultra Processed Foods (UPFs) have become increasingly prevalent in many countries worldwide. This rise in UPFs consumption can however contribute to several health issues, particularly among low-income groups, who are more susceptible to making unhealthy food purchases. Nudging is an approach that aims to influence consumer behavior toward desired outcomes. In the context of a digital environment, the swap suggests healthier alternatives when an individual selects an unhealthy food option. Herein, an experiment was conducted on 810 low-income Italians responsible for household food purchases, who were asked to select a main and side dish in an online supermarket. When UPFs were selected, a food swap was proposed, offering a minimally processed alternative. Results provide evidence that a food swap can reduce the selection of UPFs among low-income consumers and identify specific individual factors that influence the effectiveness of a food swap among this target population. Specifically, 23% of participants accepted the swap, and younger males, with higher UPFs consumption levels and lower reactance, were more likely to follow the nudge, suggesting the potential for targeted interventions in the digital environment. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360813 |
| By: | Bafowaa, Bridget Yeboah; Rabinowitz, Adam; Secor, Will; Goeringer, Paul |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy is a tool for alleviating financial stress for borrowers, enabling individuals and businesses to reorganize or discharge their financial obligations and obtain a fresh start. Chapter 12 of the US bankruptcy code is specifically designed for financially distressed farmers to seek debt relief through the US court system. Yet a recent study shows approximately 56% of farm bankruptcies with FSA loan obligations are filed under chapters 7, 11, or 13. Unlike the consumer who is usually faced with two options, chapters 7 or 13, farmers are faced with even more options, making it a more difficult decision to determine how to move forward through financial recovery. A deeper understanding is needed to explore the factors that influence farm debtors' decisions when selecting among different bankruptcy chapters. The data used in this study identifies farm bankruptcies filed under chapters in addition to chapter 12, providing a comprehensive view of all available avenues for farmers seeking financial protection through the court. Using farm debtors’ financial standings and agricultural and macroeconomic factors at the time of filing, we explore what determines the choice between reorganization and liquidation, and the choice among the different reorganization chapters: chapters 11, 12, and 13. This analysis offers valuable insights into the conditions under which some farmers opt for alternative chapters, even though chapter 12 is supposed to be specifically designed to meet their needs. Findings from this study can help policymakers assess whether chapter 12 provides sufficient protection for farmers. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360679 |
| By: | Cathrine Hagem (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Environmental restoration as a compensatory mechanism for the development of previously undisturbed land can play a significant role in fulfilling nature conservation objectives. Numerous local authorities have adopted spatial planning frameworks that incorporate nature targets, such as “no net loss” (NNL) often operationalized through net area or net biodiversity principles (i.e., area neutrality, or no net loss in biodiversity). This study employs a simplified analytical economic model to evaluate the welfare implications of both local offset schemes and coordinated offset strategies across adjacent regions, accounting for ecosystem services that benefit the local community. We show that a standalone offset market generally fails to achieve the first-best outcome as an offset market designed to ensure NNL in developed land will typically diverge from the welfare-optimal level of net development. However, an advantage of the offset market is that restoration can be achieved without any public transfers. Interregional cooperation in achieving NNL targets can improve overall welfare compared to isolated regional strategies. If the target is set to NNL, the offset market ensures that this target is achieved in a cost-effective manner as marginal cost of restoration equals marginal profit from development. However, an offset markets targeting net gain or net loss result in inefficient levels of both development and restoration. Furthermore, we suggest that implementing a permit system based on environmental value metrics rather than strict area-based neutrality (ambient permits), may mitigate some of the inefficiencies inherent in area neutrality frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Environmental restoration; Nature degradation; Offset markets; Public goods; Biodiversity targets; Ambient permit |
| JEL: | D47 D61 Q26 Q51 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1029 |
| By: | Bellemare, Marc F.; Kandpal, Eeshani; Thomas, Katherina |
| Abstract: | How much do the poor spend on food when their income increases? We estimate a key economic parameter—the income elasticity of food expenditures—using data from the randomized evaluations of five cash transfer programs: four conditional (two in Mexico, and one in each of Nicaragua and the Philippines) and one unconditional (in Uganda). The transfers provided routine, exogenous increases of 12 to 23 percent of baseline income for at least a year to recipients at or below the global poverty line. Using pooled ordinary least squares and Bayesian hierarchical models, we first show that expenditures on all food categories increase with income. But even among some of the poorest people in the world, all of whom are experiencing high hunger levels, our estimated income elasticity for food is 0.03, i.e., much smaller than many published estimates relying either on cross-sectional variation or study responses to large income shocks. Next, we use our data to test Engel’s Law—which predicts that the budget share of food will monotonically decrease as income increases—and to run a the first credible test of Bennett’s Law—the empirical regularity whereby, for poor households, income increases are associated with (i) shifting spending from coarse to fine staples, and (ii) spending more on protein than staples—finding support for both. While income increases lead consumers to spend a declining share of their income on food and to substitute fine grains for coarse grains and protein for staples, the estimated shifts are smaller than previous estimates. Quantifying how small, routine income changes affect food demand in low- and middle-income countries can inform the policy discourse on poverty reduction, nutrition, and social protection, as well as the debate on the impact of economic growth on global carbon emission patterns. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361225 |
| By: | Raphael Kweyu (Department of Geography, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya); S. Kehinde Medase (Institute of Innovation and Rural Economics, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Braunschweig, Germany); Resty Naiga (Department of Development Studies, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda) |
| Abstract: | To promote social justice and support inclusive development in East Africa, addressing land inequality is essential. Kenya and Uganda illustrate the complex factors driving land inequality in subÂSaharan Africa. During colonial times, extensive fertile lands were often alienated from local communities and given to colonial authorities, resulting in persistent land disparities. This study assesses land inequality in both countries using household surveys, the Gini, and Theil approaches. For background, we examine colonial history, land tenure regimes, and theories of structural inequality. Our findings show Uganda has higher inequality than Kenya, with regional differences greatly influencing these patterns. Kenya's inequality is lower, with some intergroup differences, such as those linked to gender, residence, religion, and marital status, having a limited impact. In Uganda, a small elite group controls the majority of the land, as indicated by Lorenz curves and spatial maps. The results highlight the need for countryÂspecific policies: Kenya should adopt community approaches, while Uganda should utilise regional strategies. These initiatives require a collaborative effort from stakeholders, including governments, agencies, and civil society, to support inclusive initiatives. This analysis guides efforts to improve land equality and governance, promoting fairness and development in Eastern Africa. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural land, Lorenz curve, land inequality, Kenya, Uganda, land governance |
| JEL: | J15 I3 Q15 Q23 R2 Y10 |
| Date: | 2026–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-001 |
| By: | Paulus, Estelle; Obersteiner, Michael; Ranger, Nicola |
| Abstract: | The global food system’s recent disruptions reveal its vulnerability to cascading failures, highlighting the urgent need to strengthen its systemic resilience, a vital precondition for global food security. Though modeling is key to comprehending its complex behavior and informing policy and decisions, the conceptualization, assessment, and modeling of systemic resilience are still in their infancy, raising questions about the suitability of existing models for evaluating resilience-building solutions. Utilizing insights from complexity theory and systems thinking, this paper proposes a holistic framework of seven criteria to evaluate modeling approaches and policies for systemic resilience. An assessment of five existing modeling approaches and associated examples of existing models reveals important gaps in current methodologies, especially regarding the transmission and amplification of impacts on the macro scale. Hence, we call for enhancing the analytical preparedness capability through the development of new models and clear communication of current shortfalls to stakeholders for improved governance. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130760 |
| By: | Bejarano Loor, Andres; Chen, Lijun Angelia; Thornsbury, Suzanne; Dutt, Manjul |
| Abstract: | Increasing consumer demand for variety in food products and grower interest in high-value alternative crops are fueling the development of novel specialty crops that may have strong market potential. The University of Florida has focused on developing new opportunities for citrus, including finger limes (Citrus australasica), recently releasing two cultivars with tolerance to Huanglongbing (HLB or citrus greening disease). However, the potential markets and supply chain relationships for Florida finger limes remain unexplored. This case study investigates how demand and supply factors must align to support the successful commercialization of a new product. An integrated theoretical framework is applied to analyze the economic system for finger limes, including stakeholder decision-making, motivation, and information exchange. Results highlight key drivers and constraints and illustrate an approach to assess emerging specialty crops with market uncertainty and limited data. Designed for capstone undergraduate and master’s students in agricultural economics and agribusiness, this case supports applied learning in market analysis, supply chain development, risk assessment, and stakeholder engagement. For more advanced students, a quantitative method appropriate for limited data is identified. The accompanying teaching notes equip students with practical skills to evaluate market opportunities for emerging products. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361153 |
| By: | Deka, Anubrata; Meerza, Syed Imran Ali; Yiannaka, Amalia |
| Abstract: | We assess consumer preferences and attitudes toward CRISPR applications and estimate consumer willingness to pay for a food product developed using CRISPR technology to enhance food safety and confer health benefits. Within this context, we analyze the impact of information provision on perceptions, attitudes and willingness to pay for gene-edited wheat flour with reduced acrylamide levels. Specifically, we consider the potential effect of both the nature of information provided (whether it emphasizes the differences between GM and CRISPR technology or not) and the delivery format (text versus video) used to present content-equivalent information. Among the factors we investigate as potentially influencing consumer preferences and WTP are consumers’subjective and objective knowledge of CRISPR technology, its perceived benefits and risks as well as trust in various entities to accurately inform and develop safe and beneficial gene editing agri-food technologies. Our results show that although consumers were willing to pay a positive amount for CRISPR gene-editing technology, their willingness to pay was lower compared to what they were willing to pay for the organic and conventional technology. Results also show that WTP for CRISPR gene-editing technology and reduced acrylamide levels were highest for participants with high subjective and objective knowledge. In contrast, variations in informational content and delivery modality do not have a statistically significant effect on consumer valuation of CRISPR gene-edited wheat flour. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360601 |
| By: | Kaplan, Jonathan; Yelshetty, Neha; Singh, Ajay S.; Salvador, Diego |
| Abstract: | Huanglongbing (HLB) is a disease that infects trees with the bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas), which leads to fruit drop, yield reduction, and eventual death. HLB presents a significant threat to citrus production worldwide, jeopardizing its economic viability. There is currently no known cure for HLB. Past and current attempts at controlling the spread of HLB have primarily focused on spraying insecticides for Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) control, which vector CLas. Rogueing of infected trees has also been considered but has been largely abandoned given very limited effectiveness at curbing the spread of HLB. Recent research has examined the use of antibiotics, such as oxytetracycline (OTC), as potential solutions to mitigate HLB. OTC is a heat-tolerant member of the tetracycline class of antibiotics, which was first administrated through trunk injection as a pesticide for use in peaches in 1974. Our study evaluates the economic implications of OTC trunk injections as an HLB treatment in the event that a Navel orange grove in California was infected with HLB. We develop an empirical model to evaluate the effectiveness of OTC in reducing economic losses associated with HLB. The results show that the benefits of OTC treatment in terms of greater yields outweigh its cost but only when the high price of $23.29 USD per 37.5 lb box is observed. Furthermore, our model incorporates the use of insecticides in conjunction with OTC to evaluate the combined effects of these management and prevention strategies for HLB infections. Assuming the application of insecticides at an 80% efficiency in reducing the ACP population, profitability is first achieved in year 16 for average prices and yields, reaching $762.83 USD per acre. A scenario in which both prices and yields are high was also evaluated, in which the treatment becomes profitable in year 8 at every OTC efficiency. In the 20th year, cumulative discounted profits per acre are $107, 278, $117, 244, and $124, 936 USD for low, average, and high OTC efficacy, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360610 |
| By: | Paudel, Ujjwol |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Labor and Human Capital, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343822 |
| By: | Duan, Dinglin; Gao, Zhifeng |
| Abstract: | While Nutrition Facts Panels (NFPs) are mandated by the FDA for packaged foods in physical retail, their regulation in online environments remains unaddressed. This study examines how NFP accessibility affects consumer purchase decisions in online grocery shopping, where NFP presentation is inconsistent and often absent. Despite online grocery sales reaching $201 billion in 2023, no research has investigated the relationship between NFP accessibility and consumer choices in digital grocery stores. Using a real choice experiment, participants make actual purchase decisions while we manipulate NFP presence and placement. The study addresses three research questions: (1) whether NFPs should be mandated for online food retail, (2) whether NFP prominence affects consumer decisions, and (3) whether simplified nutrition indicators enhance online shopping choices. This investigation is particularly timely given the FDA's January 2025 proposal for front-of-package nutrition labeling, which emphasizes immediate visibility of key nutritional information but has unknown implications for consumer behavior. Our research design differs from previous studies by testing actual purchase behavior rather than stated preferences, evaluating various NFP placements, and examining simplified nutrition formats. Results will inform policymakers in developing regulations for online food retail and help retailers design effective strategies for presenting nutritional information. The findings are especially relevant as online grocery shopping continues to expand, making digital nutrition labeling an increasingly important public health concern. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360871 |
| By: | Goodwin, Barry K. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343712 |
| By: | Zhong, Zhen; Zhong, Xiaoting; Chen, Wei; Guo, Jun; Gu, Yangyang |
| Abstract: | China’s traditional self-sufficient economy has maintained a close relationship between agricultural production and rural livelihoods for thousands of years, with human waste playing a crucial role in closing the nutrient cycle. However, the recent toilet revolution program in rural China, spurred by significant government investments in sanitation infrastructure, presents a potential disruption to this age-old nutrient cycle. Leveraging an extensive panel dataset from China’s official Fixed Observation Rural Survey (FORS) spanning 2009 to 2018 focusing on 21, 747 farming households, we estimate the impact of adopting indoor sanitary toilets on household decisions regarding manure and chemical fertilizer usages using a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) approach. We further utilize the toilet revolution policy implementation at the village level as the instrumental variable for individual having toilets. We find that the introduction of indoor sanitation facilities leads to a notable decrease in both the probability of manure application and the amount of manure used by households, while concurrently increasing the chemical fertilizer usage and in particular the urea usage. Our study underscores the intricate interplay between advancements in rural sanitation, agricultural production decision-making, and the unintended environmental consequences arising from improved living standards in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360737 |
| By: | Kilduff, Alice; Tregeagle, Daniel; Brown, Zachary S. |
| Abstract: | While phosphorus is an essential nutrient for plant growth, excess demand for phosphate fertilizers has contributed to extremely volatile fertilizer prices and caused billions of dollars in environmental damages. Over 80% of terrestrial plants have evolved to form symbiotic relationships with soil-dwelling fungi known as mycorrhiza, which help them to absorb phosphorus, and agricultural producers may be able to improve P-efficiency by encouraging this symbiosis. However, mycorrhiza cannot be directly observed and the magnitude of their effect on P absorption is context-dependent and subject to scientific debate. This paper estimates the value of the ecosystem services provided by mycorrhiza to agricultural operators through improved P-efficiency using a dynamic programming model with varying levels of state stochasticity and uncertainty. We compare several different management strategies under which an agricultural producer chooses to add fertilizer and/or a commercial mycorrhizal inoculum to maximize profit and yield. The first objective is to calibrate a deterministic dynamic programming model, wherein the biological and physical processes are well-understood. To this, stochasticity will added, including biological stochasticity for the biomass of mycorrhiza and the host plant. Lastly, distributions will be added to key parameters, representing uncertainty about the biomass of mycorrhiza, the stock of phosphorus, and the effects of symbiosis on plant biomass. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360746 |
| By: | Kumar, Kushal; Ge, Houtian; Gomez, Miguel |
| Abstract: | Economic models of contamination and risk control often assume producers respond to incentives in a predictable and uniform manner. However, real-world producer behavior is characterized by heterogeneity, adaptive learning, and complex responses to policy interventions. In order to model this, we use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the decision-making of 1, 000 producers across 10 regions over a 60-month period to analyze the effects of dynamic food safety testing regimes. The simulation with our designated parameters yielded counter-intuitive yet significant results: system-wide contamination rates decreased from 13.1% to below 1%, while the testing rate itself was reduced by 73 percentage points. This outcome was driven by a dramatic increase in producer risk-control effort, which grew 11-fold in response to the perceived effectiveness of the testing system. With our configuration, the investment in capital-intensive technology remained low (approximately 3%), suggesting that behavioral change was the primary driver of improved safety outcomes. The entire system costs fell by 97.3%, from $1.63 million to $43, 800 over time as the contamination and testing requirements reduced. These findings suggest that dynamic, feedback-based testing policies can achieve superior food safety outcomes at substantially lower costs than static regulatory approaches. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360891 |
| By: | Manfredo, Mark R.; Richards, Timothy J.; Webster, Scott; Chenarides, Lauren |
| Abstract: | During the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, food producers threw out millions of pounds of food while grocery store shelves stood empty. Despite the overall efficiency of the modern food system, COVID-19 uncovered a general lack of resilience in food supply chains. While we know quite a bit about what it means for a supply chain to be resilient, there are few formal theoretical or empirical models that provide quantitative measures of resilience. We interpret observations of wasted food during this period as a lack of resilience in the food supply chain. We develop both a theoretical explanation for the lack of resilience and an empirical example that demonstrates how a lack of resilience affects food supply chains. We base our definition of resilience on the theory of real options and economic hysteresis. Economic hysteresis is the perpetuation of a particular course of action after the original rationale has disappeared, or, in our case, failing to invest in new distribution channels. Our analytical model of supply chain resilience demonstrates how the real option embedded in investments to adapt to a disruption leads to hysteresis and a lack of resilience. Although hysteresis results from rational responses to uncertain economic environments, managers should be aware that delays in responding to disruptions have real social consequences – wasted food in our empirical example. Indeed, we find that a firm’s rational responses to disruptions result in excessive hysteresis compared to what is best for society as a whole because a firm’s “value of waiting” differs from a social planner’s. We demonstrate the comparative static properties of hysteresis and examine a range of policy solutions for mitigating the supply-chain loss that results from hysteresis. We show how building redundancy, increasing flexibility, and increasing supply chain collaboration are all ways in which the hysteretic effect of uncertainty on supply chain resilience can be reduced. More generally, we provide a framework that can help policymakers assess the merits of alternative interventions to improve supply chain resilience. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360967 |
| By: | Hatzenbuehler, Patrick; Hewlett, John P.; Schumacher, Joel; Tejeda, Hernan |
| Abstract: | Extension professionals across the United States increasingly field complex questions regarding agricultural lease agreements, as the scope of leasing has expanded to encompass cropland, pasture, public land, and renewable energy production. Yet many Extension personnel lack formal training or experience in negotiating and developing such leases. To address this gap, Extension faculty designed and implemented the “Negotiation in Agriculture: Agricultural Leases” Train-the-Trainer Extension Program, utilizing a hybrid format with both in-person and online components. The in-person workshop, conducted in November 2024, featured expert presentations and a scenario-based group project to foster practical skills. Post-program evaluations indicated that all participants rated the training as at least “moderately useful, ” with average self-assessed knowledge in all topics increasing by more than one point on a 5-point scale. The paper further describes the online course component, strategies for integrating these materials into broader Extension curricula, and recommendations for shifting stakeholder approaches toward more comprehensive and informed agricultural lease development. This program demonstrates a replicable model for enhancing Extension Educator/Agent capacity in agricultural negotiation and lease education. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361164 |
| By: | Ogisma, Lonege; Wade, Tara; Merzier, Michelson; Dorvil, Weldenson; Vilna, Josaphat |
| Abstract: | Despite its relevance to environmentally sustaining farmers’ economies in Haiti, beekeeping continues to be traditionally valued. Nowadays, only 1.54% of beekeepers have modernized their apiaries in Northern Haiti. Lack of training makes beekeepers unaware of optimum beehive maintenance, which leads to apiary disturbance and decreases bee production. This study analyzes the effects of modern apiary operation on honeybee income per hive in Northern Haiti and assesses the financial impacts of beehive maintenance in the region. We use proxy, instrumental variables, and robust two-stage least squares (robust 2SLS) methods, followed by heterogeneity effects analysis, to estimate the per-hive profit. The primary analysis underscored that access to the Bahamas market and attendance at training for honey treatment are instrumental in modern apiary use variables. The number of beehives is an instrument for apiary maintenance frequency and is inversely correlated with the maintenance frequency (h/hive/month). The results underscored that operating a modern apiary significantly increases honeybee profit per hive by more than twice as much as improved apiaries. In addition, access to subsidies/grants and environmental improvement significantly increases the honeybee profit per hive in the region. However, routine beehive maintenance even negatively impacts the profit from per-hive beekeeping. Access to high-price markets, training, grants/subsidies, and environmental conservation practices are crucial factors to impel beekeepers to adopt apiary modernization and allow for an increase in honeybee profit per hive in Northern Haiti. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360605 |
| By: | Chen, Sijia; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | The implementation of anti-dumping / countervailing duties as protectionism on international trade protects the U.S. domestic industry from material injury because of the dumped or subsidized imports. As a primary policy instrument, the Five-year Sunset Reviews assess the appropriateness of trade remedies imposed against foreign trading partners to mitigate the risk of prolonged and proliferative remedies. This paper examines the impact of the determinations of the Sunset Reviews on U.S. agricultural and food imports. We compile a comprehensive dataset including Sunset Reviews related data and U.S. monthly import data at the country-product level from 1998 to 2019. The empirical analysis concentrates on the contemporaneous trade effects of Sunset Reviews determinations by identifying the variation between trade remedy targeted countries and products. We also apply the event study method to examine the dynamic trade effects of the Sunset Reviews determinations. Based on our results, except the changes in duty margins bring about trade creation effects on the U.S. imports, no evidence shows that U.S. imports of agricultural and food goods alter by the change of Sunset Reviews determinations dummy. Our analysis indicates that even though the change of duty margins may attract exporters into the U.S. markets, the trade cost, the possible delayed access to the alternative trade supply market also affect the decision of trading economies not to choose to alter their trade. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361046 |
| By: | Alem, Yonas (University of Cape Town); Woldemichael, Leulseged L. (Addis Ababa University) |
| Abstract: | We use nationally representative panel data from rural areas and small towns in Ethiopia, matched with fine‑resolution weather data, to investigate the impact of drought on energy poverty. Energy poverty is measured using the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) and a multidimensional poverty status indicator. Fixed‑effects regression estimates show that experiencing drought in the previous production year increases a household’s MEPI score by 0.019 points and raises the probability of being multidimensionally energy poor by 3.8%. We further demonstrate that the primary pathway through which drought affects energy poverty is through its adverse effect on per‑capita income: experiencing drought in the previous production period reduces per‑capita income by 33.7%. In contrast, we find that the energy poverty of households participating in Ethiopia’s major safety‑net intervention—the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)—is not significantly affected by drought, suggesting that the program effectively buffers participants from these shocks. Overall, our findings contribute to the growing literature on the economic costs of drought and underscore the critical role of well‑targeted safety‑net programs in mitigating climate‑related vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | Income shock; Energy Poverty; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | I32 O13 Q40 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_014 |
| By: | Singerman, Ariel; Lence, Sergio H. |
| Abstract: | We collected data on the willingness of row-crop farmers in Argentina to coordinate actions to combat the impact of herbicide-resistant weeds using a framed field economic experiment that elicited farmers’ preferences in the gain and loss domains. This is a highly relevant case study because of the increasingly significant challenge that herbicide resistance poses worldwide as well as due to the increase in private and social costs associated with the market failure resulting from laissez faire. We find that the way the payoff from the decision is framed has a statistically significant impact on the probability that a randomly chosen individual coordinates, but such impact is not economically significant. However, we also find that the aggregation of responses disguises important underlying differences in how individuals responded to changes in the games’ framing. We discovered that a large share of farmers exhibited a type of behavior that could be hypothesized to be induced by time pressure, which has been found to cause reversal of (prospect theory) preferences. When considering the responses that do not show such a reversal —to make the case more favorable for framing — we find that the impact on the probability that a randomly chosen individual coordinates and on the maximum coordination threshold tend to be larger but are still of rather little economic significance. This finding suggests that highlighting the potential benefits of coordination in terms of reducing losses is unlikely to have a major impact to incentivize collective action against herbicide-resistant weeds. |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360698 |
| By: | Peng, Rundong; Mallory, Mindy; Ma, Meilin; Wang, H. Holly |
| Abstract: | Time series data have been extensively utilized in agricultural price analysis, with the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) being foundational tools. Over the past three decades, the availability of disaggregated agricultural commodity price data has increased, resulting in high-dimensional datasets. The efficacy of VECM and Johansen’s maximum likelihood test diminishes with increased dimensionality due to exponential growth in the required time series length, implying difficulty in extracting cointegrating relationships in high-dimensional data. This article addresses this challenge by employing time series clustering to reduce data dimensionality. Clusters are formed based on price similarity, dynamically adjusted for specified time period using hierarchical clustering with dynamic time warping. With clustered time series, we extract the mean price of each cluster and apply Johansen’s framework to estimate cointegration relationships. Applied to the Chinese hog market before and after the 2018 African Swine Fever outbreak, we show that the cointegrating relationship has changed suggesting less inter-provincial trade. The study identifies clusters based on price similarity and shows the advantages of this method compared to traditional geographical clustering. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360950 |
| By: | Gurung, Suraj; Chen, Lijun Angelia; Magnier, Alexandre; Gao, Zhifeng |
| Abstract: | The rise of the Home Cooking Movement (HCM) reflects growing consumer interest in locally sourced, value-added foods and a desire for closer ties to food origins. Legislative reforms in states like California, Utah, Iowa, and Wyoming have introduced varied regulatory frameworks—from strict licensing to full exemptions— which may influence consumer trust and behavior towards home kitchens. To examine how these regulatory differences and consumer values shape willingness to pay (WTP) and purchasing decisions, we designed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with five key attributes: price, customer reviews, establishment type (licensed/exempt home kitchens or traditional restaurants), liability insurance, and certifications. Using a betweensubjects design, respondents were randomly assigned to one of three information treatments: control, altruistic, or egoistic. A random parameter logit (RPL) model was used to capture preference heterogeneity. Results show strong, consistent WTP for food safety credentials ($3.60–$5.95). However, framing plays a critical role: egoistically framed consumers required steep discounts to choose either licensed (−$3.46) or exempt (−$3.82) home kitchens, whereas altruistic messaging significantly reduced resistance and broadened acceptance. These findings highlight the importance of value-aligned messaging and credible food safety practices in fostering consumer acceptance of home kitchens. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360599 |
| By: | Han, Donggeun; Adom, Enoch; Lambert, Dayton M. |
| Abstract: | Research credibility in agricultural economics is compromised by two interrelated factors: selective reporting and low statistical power. These factors contribute to exaggerated findings that appear more persuasive and garner more citations. This study analyzes 849 articles published in leading U.S. agricultural economics journals between 2018 and 2023, with 48, 962 observations. Two empirical analyses are conducted. The first regresses citation counts on p-values reported in article tables, a proxy for statistical power, article topics, and journal and year fixed effects. The second predicts the time it takes a journal to be cited ‘10’ times, given p-values and statistical power. We hypothesized that citation counts would be negatively associated with p-values (i.e., lower p-value attract more citations), while no specific hypothesis was formed for statistical power, as it is unobservable to readers. The results show that citation counts are strongly influenced by topic novelty and journal prestige, with studies reporting lower p-values receiving more citations, whereas adequately powered studies receive fewer. The misalignment between research rigor and citation counts raises concerns that farmers may adopt recommendations based on less reliable findings, as agricultural extension services may rely on citation metrics when evaluating scientific research. Thus, aligning citation-based evaluations with empirical credibility is important not only for maintaining trust in science but also for informing decisions made by farmers and extension agents. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361172 |
| By: | Traore, Ousmane Z.; Tamini, Lota D.; Latouche, Karine |
| Abstract: | Most agri-food import rejections at the borders of Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) network countries stem from non-tariff measure (NTM) compliance issues, such as the presence of mycotoxins, pathogenic microorganisms, excessive pesticide residues, and insufficient quality controls. These rejections predominantly affect products like edible vegetables and fruits, which African countries export more frequently than other nations. This paper examines the impact of RASFF import refusals on African exports of edible vegetables and fruits from 2008 to 2018. Specifically, we estimate the average effects of border rejections by RASFF countries on the extensive and intensive margins of African exports, accounting for the endogeneity of current border rejections and addressing the issue of zero trade flows. Using data on border rejections from the RASFF online database and export figures from 45 African countries in the UN WITS database, we apply the canonical sectoral gravity equation from Anderson & Van Wincoop (2004). Our methodology employs the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator from Silva & Tenreyro (2006), combined with the robust Two-Stage Residual Inclusion (2SRI) approach of Terza et al. (2008). Our findings indicate that a single import refusal by a RASFF country in a given year leads to a 0.018% decrease in the number of European trade partners for African exporters of edible vegetables and a 0.143% decrease for edible fruits. Additionally, each additional import refusal lowers the export value of edible vegetables from African countries by 0.045%. However, counterintuitively, import refusals in a given year contribute to a 0.126% increase in the export value of edible fruits. Furthermore, our results confirm the endogeneity of import refusals and reveal both direct and spillover effects of border rejections. Specifically, an increase in border rejections of a particular product such as fresh fruit one year prior correlates with a rise in rejections of the same product and similar items, such as fresh vegetables, in the following year. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361032 |
| By: | Owusu Ansah, Michael; Skevas, Theodoros; Grashuis, Jasper |
| Abstract: | This study examines the temporal effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on the productivity of U.S. grain marketing cooperatives from 2004 to 2020. While prior research has explored the drivers and outcomes of M&A, limited attention has been paid to how the passage of time since an M&A event affects productivity, particularly in terms of total factor productivity (TFP). Using a system GMM model, we explore how M&A age, defined as the number of years since a cooperative’s most recent merger of acquisition, influences TFP. M&A age serves as a temporal measure of post-M&A experience, reflecting the integration period during which cooperatives absorb operational, managerial, and cultural changes. The results show that M&A age does not significantly impact productivity, suggesting that the integration and adjustment process may offset productivity gains in the short term. Secondary findings reveal that exporting cooperatives tend to have higher productivity, while those exiting the sector experience declines. These results highlight the need for cooperatives to develop long-term strategies to manage post M&A integration. This paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the temporal dynamics of M&A in agricultural cooperatives and offers insights for strategic decision-making within the sector. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361178 |
| By: | Peterson-Wilhelm, Bailey; Schwab, Benjamin; Burrone, Sara |
| Abstract: | List experiments utilize indirect survey questions to reduce social desirability bias in measures of sensitive behaviors and sentiments. While often used to assess retrospective behavior or opinions of respondents, list experiments have not been widely applied to assessing “deep” parameters of economic models, such as willingness to pay. Common stated preference methods of estimating willingness to pay may be impacted by social desirability bias, particularly when a product has been provided to survey recipients for free. List experiments can uncover the share of respondents willing to pay a given price while reducing social desirability bias. Repeating the method at a variety of prices recovers a partial demand curve. This study discusses the conditions required to satisfy the list experiment validity assumptions and demonstrates the method in an e-extension platform randomized control trial in Sri Lanka. We show that the “no design effect” assumption for list experiments requires that the budget constraint for a household be nonbinding. Under conditions where that assumption is likely to hold, we find direct estimates overstate willingness to pay at low prices. Our findings suggest list experiments may provide a cheap method of more accurately assessing the typically large share of respondents unwilling to pay any non-zero-sum (extensive margin), but are less effective at reducing bias from exaggerated demand (intensive margin). |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361169 |
| By: | Bronnenberg, B.J.J.A.M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Bùi, Trang (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Deleersnyder, Barbara (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Haerkens, Lesley (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Knox, George (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); van Lin, Arjen (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Pachali, Max (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Paley, Anna (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Smith, Robert (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Stäbler, Samuel (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:776efe3e-2b65-4122-90df-fdd1829c51fd |
| By: | Quaye, Leonard-Allen A.; Stewart, Shamar; Massa, Olga Isengildina |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how river-based transportation costs, particularly barge freight rates, influence corn basis along the Mississippi River. The corn basis (the difference between local cash and futures prices) captures key pricing dynamics affected by both local conditions and broader logistical networks. Using weekly data from 2014 to 2024, we apply a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with spatial and time fixed effects to account for both local and spillover effects across markets. Two model specifications are estimated: one assuming directionally constrained spatial spillovers, consistent with downstream trade patterns, and another allowing for unconstrained spatial interactions. The results show that an increase in barge freight rates is associated with a decline in the local corn basis, underscoring the negative impact of rising transportation costs on prices paid at origin. Moreover, significant spillover effects reveal that barge rate changes in one region affect basis values in adjacent markets, indicating that transportation shocks propagate spatially. The analysis also highlights how river navigability and localized energy price variation contribute to basis volatility, depending on how spatial relationships are structured. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of infrastructure, costs, and spatial connectivity in grain pricing. This research offers important insights for policymakers, producers, and traders seeking to manage transportation risks and improve market efficiency in the agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361205 |
| By: | Zebrowski, Wesley; Iovanna, Rich; Lark, Tyler |
| Abstract: | The USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) delivers environmental benefits to society by enrolling cropland and grasslands to reestablish or safeguard long-term vegetative cover. In recent years, the CRP has dramatically increased in enrollment in its new Grassland signup subprogram, which conserves existing grasslands and now constitutes a plurality of CRP acres. In contrast, enrollment in the General signup subprogram, which restores marginal croplands to grassland, has been in steady decline. Through at least the end of the 2018 Farm Bill, these two subprograms share a combined acreage cap which in theory could create either competitive or complementary interactions within the program. This paper uses descriptive analysis and a spatial comparison of participant incentives to assess the relationship between these two CRP signup types. We find that the recent low supply of General offers has been accompanied by relatively low EBI cutoffs, thereby maintaining a consistent enrollment of eligible offers, with a large share of the remaining cap being filled with Grassland acres. Despite this trend, incentives for expiring CRP land—an instance where participants could choose to either enroll in the Grassland program or re-enroll in General—favor re-enrolling in the General signup in 62% of county-years, and even more so when the grazing deduction is utilized. We argue that while these two programs do not compete administratively under current trends, these enrollment patterns could tighten competition between the programs in future periods if total enrollment approaches a shared cap, especially considering that programmatic incentives or market conditions could change under future Farm Bills. We discuss the implication of these findings for program design going forward. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361148 |
| By: | Abdal, FMS; Deb, Uttam K. |
| Abstract: | The United States is the world’s top importer and the eleventh-largest exporter of fish and fishery products, with US$4.5 billion. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. trade performance, comparative advantage, and competitiveness in exports, as well as the potential of fish and fishery product exports over the last two decades. Estimates of the gravity model via Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) revealed that U.S. exports are significantly influenced by the GDP and population of importing countries, as well as by free trade agreements. Conversely, domestic fish production in importing nations tends to substitute for U.S. exports. The market assessment estimates show that the U.S. had a mixed performance in market utilization with its major trading partners. High performance was observed in countries like Lithuania, the Netherlands, Italy, and Thailand, while share was lost in recent years in South Korea, France, and China. The market utilization rate for the U.S. is close to or slightly higher than the market potential for long-term trading partners, such as Canada and Japan. Revealed Comparative Advantage was used to measure the competitiveness, and the U.S. had a consistent competitiveness in the export of frozen fish (HS 0303), fish fillet and other fish meat (HS 0304), dried/salted/in-brine and smoked fish (HS 0305). For other products, the U.S. had a comparative advantage with a few destinations only. The U.S. can expand its exports through enhancing domestic processing capacity, improving trade facilitation with the EU, strengthening maritime infrastructure, and supporting exporters in meeting international standards. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361033 |
| By: | Lu, Pei Jyun |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343980 |
| By: | Kumar, Bhupender; Kiran Kumara, T. M.; Jat, Shankar Lal; Jat, Hanuman Sahay |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:383750 |
| By: | Kakimoto, Shunkei; Mieno, Taro |
| Abstract: | Gridded weather datasets, such as PRISM, have been widely used in econometric analysis to study the impact of weather on economic outcomes. Yet, concerns persist regarding the measurement errors in these datasets and their consequential estimation bias. This study systematically quantifies and characterizes the measurement errors in growing-season total precipitation and extreme degree days (EDD) derived from PRISM. Using exact spatial matches between PRISM grid cells and ground weather stations, we find that PRISM weather variables exhibit nontrivial measurement errors that are negatively correlated with true weather outcomes, especially for EDD. Moreover, the variance of these errors increases with the extremity of actual weather outcomes. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the resulting estimation bias in weather impact on farm-level corn yields. The simulation results show that the average bias is moderate when estimating weather impacts on corn yield across the entire Corn Belt region due to large weather variations. However, the bias becomes more substantial at smaller spatial scales, such as individual states, where limited variation amplifies the relative influence of measurement error. We conclude that researchers should exercise caution when using PRISM data in econometric models, especially in subregional analyses. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360727 |
| By: | Fan, Hao; Wang, Jingjing; Fan, Shenggen |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of two interventions—information and commitment—on food waste behaviors among students in university canteen, along with the underlying socio-psychological mechanisms. The informational intervention involves providing students with details about the environmental impact of food waste, while the commitment intervention encourages students to sign a pledge to reduce waste after receiving similar information. The experiment conducted in two university canteens in China reveals that information alone has a limited effect on students’ food- waste behavior, whereas the combined intervention of information and commitment significantly reduces food waste. Further analysis indicates that the effectiveness of the commitment intervention varied across gender, dining pattern, and policy awareness, highlighting the importance of tailoring future interventions to account for the heterogeneity within the student population. Mechanism analysis identifies three key socio-psychological factors—attitude, subject norms, and perceived behavioral control—that play significant roles in food-waste behaviors. Notably, the interaction between attitude and commitment interventions is positively associated with students’ food waste behavior, likely due to the triggering of students’ psychological reactance, or a backlash effect, as students seemed to rebel against the imposed commitment. This study provides a theoretical foundation for food waste interventions in higher education institutions and highlights the importance of combining strategies, addressing socio-psychological factors, and tailoring approaches to individual and group characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360814 |
| By: | Kim, Hannah; Hultgren, Andrew; Janzen, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Weather extremes in early childhood can disrupt child growth and nutrition outcomes, but global evidence across developing countries remains limited. We examine the impact of temperature and precipitation variations on early childhood malnutrition across 57 low and middle income countries using over 1.2 million children from Demographic and Health Surveys linked to high-resolution ERA5 weather data. Using bin regression and restricted cubic splines, we identify nonlinear weather effects on stunting, underweight, and wasting probability while controlling for national, seasonal, and regional confounding factors. Our results show that both temperature and precipitation variations increase the probability of childhood malnutrition. We find that temperature has a nonlinear effect on stunting, where both high temperatures (above 90°F) and low temperatures (below 50°F) increase the probability by 1.3-1.4 percentage points relative to moderate conditions. Exposure to heat is associated with underweight and wasting, with months above 90°F increasing these outcomes by 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively. Precipitation effects vary by outcome type. Drought conditions below 5mm monthly precipitation increase underweight probability by 0.5 percentage points, while heavy rainfall above 250mm increases wasting risk by 0.4 percentage points. Effects vary across child age groups, with temperature showing more precise impacts on stunting among older children, while precipitation effects remain largely insignificant across age groups. Rural children show greater vulnerability to precipitation extremes, particularly for heavy rainfall effects on underweight and wasting. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360729 |
| By: | Estere Seinkmane |
| Abstract: | Evaluation of "Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050" for The Unjournal. |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:e2limitedmeatprod |
| By: | David Manheim |
| Abstract: | Evaluation of "Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050" for The Unjournal. |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:e1limitedmeatprod |
| By: | Wang, Yuhan |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343897 |