|
on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Anna Lungarska (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raja Chakir (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the complex relationship between climate change and ecosystem services (ESs) in France. We explore both the direct effects of climate change and the indirect effects of land-use change on six regulating ESs (e.g., habitat quality, water retention) and two provisioning ESs (e.g., crop production, livestock production). Results indicate that while climate change may initially have positive impacts on ESs, the induced negative impacts of land-use adaptation often overshadow these benefits. We show the effectiveness of a greenhouse gas (GHG) tax of 200€/tCO2eq on agriculture in offsetting the negative effects of land-use adaptation to climate change on ESs. This highlights the importance of integrating economic instruments, such as carbon pricing mechanisms, to promote the sustainable management of ESs in the context of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Climate change adaptation and mitigation, Spatial autocorrelation, Land use, Ecosystem services |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04692723 |
| By: | Moretti Elia; Loreau Michel; Benzaquen Michael |
| Abstract: | Feeding a larger and wealthier global population without transgressing ecological limits is increasingly challenging, as rising food demand (especially for animal products) intensifies pressure on ecosystems, accelerates deforestation, and erodes biodiversity and soil health. We develop a stylized, spatially explicit global model that links exogenous food-demand trajectories to crop and livestock production, land conversion, and feedbacks from ecosystem integrity that, in turn, shape future yields and land needs. Calibrated to post-1960 trends in population, income, yields, input use, and land use, the model reproduces the joint rise of crop and meat demand and the associated expansion and intensification of agriculture. We use it to compare business-as-usual, supply-side, demand-side, and mixed-policy scenarios. Three results stand out. First, productivity-oriented supply-side measures (e.g. reduced chemical inputs, organic conversion, lower livestock density) often trigger compensatory land expansion that undermines ecological gains-so that supply-side action alone cannot halt deforestation or widespread degradation. Second, demand-side change, particularly reduced meat consumption, consistently relieves both intensification and expansion pressures; in our simulations, only substantial demand reductions (on the order of 40% of projected excess demand by 2100) deliver simultaneous increases in forest area and declines in degraded land. Third, integrated policy portfolios that jointly constrain land conversion, temper input intensification, and curb demand outperform any single lever. Together, these findings clarify the system-level trade-offs that frustrate piecemeal interventions and identify the policy combinations most likely to keep global food provision within ecological limits. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.14720 |
| By: | Yasmine Blili (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, IAV Hassan II - Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II); Elie Abou Nader (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, IAV Hassan II - Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II); Iciar Pavez (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Paolo Prosperi (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Rachid Harbouze (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, IAV Hassan II - Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II); Leonidas Sotirios Kyrgiakos (UTH - University of Thessaly [Volos]); Christina Kleisiari (UTH - University of Thessaly [Volos]); Marios Vasileiou (UTH - University of Thessaly [Volos]); Vasileios Angelopoulos (UTH - University of Thessaly [Volos]); George Vlontzos (UTH - University of Thessaly [Volos]); Georgios Kleftodimos (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Pollination is a critical ecosystem service for agriculture, with 76 % of European food crops and 80 % of wild plants depending on it. However, bee populations are declining due to diseases, pesticides, and climate change, with major economic and environmental impacts. In France, pollination services are valued between 2, 3 and 5, 3 billion euros annually, but detailed data at the department scale (NUTS 3) is lacking. This study aims to fill this gap by quantifying the economic value of crop production (EVCP), the economic value of insect pollination (EVIP), and agricultural vulnerability to pollinator loss across all French departments. We analyzed data from 2022 for 34 major crops, of which 26 are pollinator-dependent, applying the dependence ratio method to estimate pollination contributions. We also developed a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify the main drivers of spatial variation in EVIP per hectare. We estimate France's economic value of crop production at 34, 8 billion € and economic value of insect pollination at 4, 2 billion €, with an agricultural vulnerability rate of 12 %. The highest economic value of insect pollination per hectare was recorded in Loire-Atlantique (19302, 5 €/ha) and the lowest in Seine-Saint-Denis (575, 5 €/ha). By analyzing crop-specific dependencies and regional production patterns, the study reveals that southern and western France, particularly departments specialized in fruit and vegetables, are most economically dependent and vulnerable to pollinator decline. The GAM explained 97.6 % of the variability in EVIP per hectare, revealing that fruit and vegetable cultivation strongly drives pollination value. The results highlight spatial disparities in pollination dependency and underscore the need for territorially targeted conservation strategies. Compared to previous studies, our findings suggest a significant underestimation of pollination value, highlighting the need for fine-scale entomological research and territorially targeted conservation strategies to support sustainable agricultural development. However, the study has some limitations: certain crop prices had to be approximated, dependence ratios were fixed and do not account for local ecological conditions, and some minor crops were excluded. Despite these constraints, the results remain robust and provide a reliable basis for territorialized conservation policies. |
| Keywords: | Pollinators, Economic value, Vulnerability ratio, Dependence ratio method, Agriculture, Policy |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05301963 |
| By: | Killian Thibaud Chary (UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier); Emma Soulé (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Souhil Harchaoui (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Circularity is a powerful strategy for decreasing the use of non-renewable resources, nutrient pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions from food systems. To enhance food system sustainability, circularity and its trade-offs should be considered along with productivity, efficiency, or self-sufficiency strategies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural policies, Nutrient cycling, Environmental impacts, Crop-livestock integration, Circular food systems, systèmes alimentaires, impact sur l'environnement, systèmes agroalimentaires, autosuffisance, agroécologie, diversification, système de production, réglementation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05298391 |
| By: | Bertassello Leonardo (European Commission - JRC); Basu Nandita; Maes Joachim; Grizzetti Bruna (European Commission - JRC); La Notte Alessandra; Feyen Luc (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "In Europe, excessive inputs of nitrogen threaten ecosystems and public health. Wetlands act as natural filters, removing excess nutrients and protecting downstream waters. Using high-resolution data on nitrogen surplus and wetlands distribution, we estimate that existing European wetlands remove 1092 ± 95 kt of nitrogen per year. Restoring 27% of wetlands historically drained for agriculture (3% of land area), targeted in high nitrogen input areas, could reduce current nitrogen loads to the sea by 36%, but with potential costs to agricultural productivity. A more efficient strategy targets wetland restoration on farmlands projected to be abandoned by 2040, yielding a 22% load reduction, and enabling major rivers such as the Rhine, Elbe and Vistula to meet water quality targets with minimal agricultural impact. Our findings highlight wetland restoration as a cost-effective, policy-relevant solution that – if spatially targeted – can deliver major water quality improvements while supporting broader EU climate, biodiversity, and agricultural sustainability goals." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143319 |
| By: | Mohammed, Abdelradi; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth |
| Abstract: | A key challenge in modeling water scarcity in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models is getting the substitution elasticity between water and the other inputs right. This paper develops a novel method to derive the values of the substitution elasticity between water and land by implementing a one-way bottom-up linking from a crop model into a CGE model. Using biophysical relationships from a crop model, we calibrate the shape of the production function of agricultural activities in the CGE model. Furthermore, crop water requirement coefficients are imposed as biophysical constraints on the substitution in crop production. To demonstrate the advantages of this approach, we apply it to an irrigation water tax shock using SAM data for Egypt 2019 and compare the impacts under these derived elasticities with the elasticities of the GTAP-WATER model. The results show that our approach is similar to that of GTAP in the short run. However, in the long run, we find that the impact of the policy on agriculture is larger under the novel approach than under the GTAP elasticities. This method could be applied to other cases using region-specific crop model parameters to study water policy, water use efficiency, agricultural production, and rural development. |
| Keywords: | Linking, irrigation, crop water requirement, CGE model, water economics, elasticity |
| JEL: | Q25 C68 Q18 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/04 |
| By: | Boss, Ruchira; Hoddinott, John; Colen, Liesbeth |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive evidence linking urbanization, market access, and rising incomes to dietary transitions and nutritional outcomes, both globally and within India, Indigenous communities, particularly in the North East Region (NER) of India, have received little attention in this context. This paper examines how income and market access shape the diets and nutrition of Indigenous Naga women in a geographically isolated and culturally distinct setting, providing a unique context to study the early stages of dietary and nutritional change. Using primary survey data from more than 800 women across cities, villages, and remote hamlets, we find that most women meet the minimum dietary diversity threshold and maintain adequate diet quality even in low-income, low-market access settings. However, higher income is consistently associated with more diverse diets, particularly through increased consumption of oils, meats, and pulses. Higher market access is associated with increased frequency of oil and fat consumption, reflecting a shift away from traditional food practices. Women in highaccess regions also exhibit higher Body Mass Index (BMI), indicating a shift toward overweight and obesity with increased proximity to food markets. By focusing on an isolated and understudied region, this study provides new evidence on the dual role of income and market access in shaping diets and nutrition, while highlighting the importance of Indigenous food systems in ensuring adequate diet quality. These findings have broader relevance for communities and regions undergoing similar transitions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:373336 |
| By: | Tur Cardona Juan (European Commission - JRC); Ciaian Pavel (European Commission - JRC); Antonioli Federico (European Commission - JRC); Fellmann Thomas (European Commission - JRC); Rocciola Francesco; Ierardi Irene; Crimeni Rocco; Anastasiou Evangelos |
| Abstract: | "The digitalisation of the EU agricultural sector is an essential part of the broader EU Digital Agenda and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) aiming to promote competitiveness, sustainability, and resilience in agriculture through digital transformation. This report analyses the current state of digitalisation in EU agriculture, covering the adoption of general IT and software tools and farm-specific technologies, key drivers and barriers, perceived sustainability aspects, and farm-level practices in data collection, management and sharing. The analysis is based on farm survey data from 1 444 respondents in nine EU Member States – Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary and Poland – collected between June and October 2024. The results show that while general IT and software tools are widely used, more expensive technologies specific to crop or livestock production have been less widely adopted. Adoption rates are higher among larger farms, those with better internet connectivity and those with specialised training. Key drivers of adoption include efficiency gains, cost savings, regulatory pressures and improved quality of life, while high costs and limited skills remain notable barriers. Farmers expect digital technologies to have positive economic, environmental and social impacts. Farm-level data collection is still largely manual or based on basic digital tools, which increases the administrative burden on farmers. Farmers appear to take a selective approach to data sharing, mainly due to concerns about privacy, security and data control. Promoting transparent data policies, ensuring farmers benefit from sharing and adopting a targeted policy approach for advanced technologies can help build trust and support wider digital adoption." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc141259 |
| By: | Wei Li; Kashi Kafle; Anna Josephson |
| Abstract: | Agricultural commercialization is often promoted as a key driver of development in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet its benefits may not extend equally to all farmers. Using longitudinal household data from the LSMS-ISA and a two-way Mundlak fixed effects estimator, we examine the relationship between farmers' gender and agricultural commercialization in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania. In Ethiopia and Nigeria, women-headed households and those with a higher share of women-managed land face substantial disadvantages in market engagement, particularly in households oriented towards self-consumption. Interestingly, in both countries, women-headed households that do engage in sales are more likely to sell to market buyers and less likely to sell to individual buyers compared to men-headed households. In contrast, in Tanzania, the negative associations between gender and commercialization are weaker and less robust across outcomes. Overall, these findings demonstrate that gender gaps in commercialization are highly context-specific rather than universal, highlighting the need for country-tailored policies that address the institutional and market constraints faced by women farmers. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.19556 |
| By: | Rêve Dagher (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Nicolas Faysse (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Leila Temri (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Myriam Kessari (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Faten Khamassi (Laboratoire GREEN_TEAM - INAT - Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie) |
| Abstract: | Crop diversity is promoted for its environmental benefits. However, few analyses have been conducted on whether crop diversity can reduce farm economic vulnerability to multiple production stresses. Deglet Noor is the most frequently grown variety of date in Kebili Region, Tunisia. Other date varieties, termed "common date varieties", were formerly considered to be less profitable and hence marginalised. Date production in this region is facing constraints linked to climate change, decreasing water availability and rising labour costs. The study compares the economic benefits of producing Deglet Noor dates and common date varieties at farm level, when faced with different production stresses. A survey was made of 123 farmers producing dates in Kebili Region. In the absence of stress, Deglet Noor is the most profitable variety, but its profitability is particularly vulnerable to different stresses. By contrast, the profitability of common date varieties is much less sensitive to these stresses. Stress-free environments become increasingly rare in Tunisian oases. Hence, re-directing interest towards common date varieties could help build less vulnerable oasis farming systems. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Crop diversification, Dates, Tunisia, Underutilised crops, Profitability, Economic vulnerability |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05303130 |
| By: | Simon Cornée (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Damien Rousselière (Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Véronique Thelen (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the environmental benefits of grassroots cooperation in agriculture. Specifically, it focuses on the French context, which is characterised by a heavy reliance on pesticides and by strong inter-farmer interactions structured within farm machinery sharing cooperatives (CUMAs). We theorise that these social interactions are strategically complementary in the sense that the agroecological practices of farmers involved in the CUMA network, in a given spatial unit, are influenced by the presence and actions of CUMA members in their vicinity. At the extensive margin, increased peer-to-peer interactions, driven by a higher density of CUMA members, foster sociotechnical exchanges conducive to reducing pesticide use. At the intensive margin, if members individually make greater use of their CUMA, they collectively gain access to technologically advanced machinery assets, which leads to a reduction in pesticide use through improvements in technical efficiency. Our econometric analysis, based on a dataset provided by the National Federation of CUMAs covering 5793 individual cooperatives, fully supports the extensive-margin mechanism. The intensive-margin mechanism, however, is only observed for greater use of agroecological equipment by CUMA members, suggesting a rebound effect when it comes to conventional equipment. Overall, these results point to the idea of a ‘hidden agroecological transition.' |
| Keywords: | Social interactions, Collective action, Pesticides Agriculture, Farm machinery sharing cooperatives, Cooperatives |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04881201 |
| By: | Lucía Cuadro-Sáez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Corinna Ghirelli (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Maximiliano Moreno-López (BANCO DE ESPAÑA AND PARIS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS); Javier J. Pérez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive framework developed by the Banco de España to monitor and forecast food price dynamics in the euro area, particularly in response to the sharp increase in food inflation observed between 2022 and 2024. The study introduces a suite of models tailored to different aspects of the food value chain, integrating data from consumer and producer prices, farm-gate prices and international commodity and futures markets. Key tools include a Food Value Chain Model (VARx) to estimate the pass-through of commodity and fuel price shocks to consumer prices, an Asymmetric Price Transmission Model to capture non-linear effects and a Conditional Forecasting framework using different modelling approaches and futures data to simulate inflation scenarios. Additionally, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) assesses the long-term relationship between food and non-food prices. These tools aim to enhance central bank decision-making and food security analysis by providing timely, scenario-based insights into food inflation trends. |
| Keywords: | food prices, food inflation, inflation, euro area, monitoring, forecasting, central bank |
| JEL: | E31 C53 Q11 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2521e |
| By: | Derek Lemoine; Catherine Hausman; Jeffrey G. Shrader |
| Abstract: | Multiple lines of research aim to quantify the economic impacts of climate change, including through reduced-form and structural approaches. We show that the effects of climate change on economic activity depend on changes in weather across time and space: changes in contemporary weather have direct effects on output; changes in past weather and in expectations of future weather induce adaptation; and changes in weather elsewhere around the globe introduce a general equilibrium component. Using this framework, we argue that estimation of climate impacts faces a trilemma: a methodology can have at most two of (i) robustness to a particular economic model structure, (ii) interpretation as effects of persistent, widespread, anticipated climate change, and (iii) quasi-experimental identification. We summarize the literature on climate damages in light of the trilemma, with an emphasis on recent progress understanding adaptation and spatial spillovers. We propose directions for future work. |
| JEL: | C23 C51 F18 O13 Q17 Q51 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34348 |
| By: | Solomon Hsiang |
| Abstract: | Empirical research has revolutionized how we understand the global economic impacts of climate change. Recent empirical analyses have tested theoretical ideas, challenged prior estimates, and revealed important and unexpected impacts. Further, the credibility and replicability of empirical results have played a critical role in guiding high-stakes climate policies. Here, I describe the landscape of empirical economic research on global impacts, I explain elements of modern analyses, I summarize recent findings on a range of topics, and I point towards promising new areas of investigation. In particular, I focus on empirical perspectives for six “grand challenges” in the field: understanding climate change’s global impact on economic output, health, conflict, food security, disasters, and migration. Overall, I argue that interwoven empirical findings across outcomes are aligning to paint an increasingly coherent picture of a future global economy impacted by climate change. Taking the literature as a whole, the global consequences of unmitigated climate change are likely to be substantial, unequal, negative in net economic value and potentially destabilizing. |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34357 |
| By: | Maguette Sembene (Virginia Tech Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics); Bradford Mills (Virginia Tech Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics); Anubhab Gupta (Virginia Tech Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics) |
| Abstract: | Historical data show a rising trend in extreme heat in the past four decades in the Groundnut Basin of Senegal. We evaluate the economic costs of extreme heat on groundnut production in the region. Using temperature data from the ERA5 global climate reanalysis, we define extreme heat degree days (EHDDs) as the cumulative number of degree days above 35 °C during the groundnut growing season and estimate its effect on quasi-profits and yields at the person, household, and field levels utilizing a two-year panel data of 1, 123 households. Our econometric estimations show that an additional EHDD reduces quasi-profits by 5, 460 FCFA per hectare and significantly lowers yield by 2.5%. Further, rainfall interactions with EHDD generate compounding losses under high heat and rainfall. The findings highlight important and often unseen effects of increasing temperatures on agricultural practices in climate-vulnerable areas such as the Groundnut Basin and underscore the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Extreme heat, Groundnut, Economic costs, The Groundnut Basin, Senegal |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vpi:aaecpp:aaecpp2025-02 |
| By: | Kanjarla, Adith |
| Abstract: | The U.S. “Generally Recognized as Safe” (GRAS) framework is intended to safeguard the food supply, yet structural gaps have enabled widespread use of food additives with limited oversight. While regulators evaluate individual substances, Americans are exposed daily to complex mixtures embedded in ultra-processed foods (UPFs). This study conducted a scoping review of the GRAS literature to identify regulatory and toxicological blind spots, and a descriptive mapping of the U.S. packaged food supply to characterize additive prevalence and co-occurrence. Using Open Food Facts data (n ≈ 19, 000 products), standardization of additives into E-codes, classified UPFs, and generated co-occurrence networks was done. Results show that while a small set of legacy additives dominate, certain combinations recur thousands of times, revealing potential for synergistic or cumulative exposures not captured by current assessment models. Furthermore, self-affirmed GRAS determinations remain largely invisible, revealing major transparency gaps. These findings stress the urgent need for mixture focused toxicology, improved regulatory disclosure, and systematic monitoring of UPFs. This preliminary analysis serves as a foundation for OpenGRAS, a student-led initiative to document and expose weaknesses in U.S. food additive governance. |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e5fgc_v1 |
| By: | Thierry Brunelle (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Raja Chakir (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Alain Carpentier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Bruno Dorin (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Daniel Goll (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, BIOGEO - Contrôles des cycles biogéochimiques terrestres - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives); Nicolas Guilpart (Agronomie - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Federico Maggi (Environmental Engineering - The University of Sydney); David Makowski (MIA Paris-Saclay - Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Nesme (UMR ISPA - Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère - Bordeaux Sciences Agro - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jutta Roosen (TUM - Technische Universität Munchen - Technical University Munich - Université Technique de Munich); Fiona Tang (Department of Civil Engineering [Clayton] - Monash University [Clayton]) |
| Abstract: | Many countries have implemented policies to reduce the use of chemical inputs in agriculture. However, these policies face many obstacles that limit their effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to review the main challenges associated with reducing chemical inputs in agriculture and to propose potential solutions. Our analysis, based on a literature review linking agronomy and economics, shows that several agronomic options have proven effective in reducing chemical inputs or mitigating their negative impacts. We argue that the organization of the agri-food system itself is a major barrier to their implementation. Involving all stakeholders, from the chemical input industry to consumers, and designing appropriate policy frameworks are key to address this issue. We recommend combining different policy instruments, such as standards, taxes and subsidies, in a simplified and coherent way to increase effectiveness and ensure better coordination in the adoption of sustainable practices. |
| Abstract: | De nombreux pays ont mis en œuvre des politiques visant à réduire l'utilisation d'intrants chimiques dans l'agriculture. Toutefois, ces politiques se heurtent à de nombreux obstacles qui limitent leur efficacité. L'objectif de cet article est de passer en revue les principaux défis liés à la réduction des intrants chimiques dans l'agriculture et de proposer des solutions potentielles. Notre analyse, basée sur une revue de la littérature associant agronomie et économie, montre que plusieurs options agronomiques se sont avérées efficaces pour réduire les intrants chimiques ou atténuer leurs impacts négatifs. Nous soutenons que l'organisation du système agroalimentaire lui-même est un obstacle majeur à leur mise en œuvre. L'implication de toutes les parties prenantes, de l'industrie des intrants chimiques aux consommateurs, et la conception de cadres politiques appropriés sont essentielles pour résoudre ce problème. Nous recommandons de combiner différents instruments politiques, tels que les normes, les taxes et les subventions, d'une manière simplifiée et cohérente afin d'accroître l'efficacité et d'assurer une meilleure coordination dans l'adoption de pratiques durables. |
| Keywords: | Réduction d'intrants, Normes, Taxes, Subvention |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04644219 |
| By: | Maurine Mamès (UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Mechthild Donner (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Hugo de Vries (UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Partnerships have their own vision of sustainability, from formal broad concepts such as bioeconomy or blue economy to grounded-specific objectives. As highlighted in numerous studies, managing diverse visions towards a common goal can be challenging. This article seeks to explore the factors influencing sustainable value co-creation through a novel lens: the intermediaries operating at the partnership level. These intermediaries are potential key players in the success of partnerships focused on sustainable food and bioeconomy systems in Europe. To identify their roles and positions, three in-depth case studies were conducted on partnerships (Pôle Mer Mediterranée, Foodwest, and BIOEAST) operating at regional, national and cross-countries scales. The findings contribute to the existing literature by clarifying the role of intermediaries in sustainable value co-creation processes and by classifying the positioning of intermediaries within partnerships. Here, we have described intermediaries as the actors within a partnership who facilitate interactions between partners and/or partners' connections with the outside. Two different types of intermediaries emerged (i) a part-time facilitating group of intermediaries loosely bound together and (ii) a full-time management team of intermediaries coherently intervening. The study demonstrates that both categories have a major influence in shaping the sustainable co-creation process even though they employ different approaches using a unique mix of tools: animation, communication (internal), promotion of the partnership (outside) and coordination. These are further influenced by factors such as the level of formality or informality in communication between intermediaries and partners as well as their specific geographic and thematic contexts. |
| Keywords: | Bioeconomy, Food systems, Sustainability, Intermediaries, Co-creation, Partnerships |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05285111 |
| By: | Kaplan, Lennart |
| Abstract: | The political economy literature highlights the redistribution of resources to political support groups - often along regional or ethnic lines - as an axiom of political systems. In contrast to this dominant pattern, Kasara (2007) documents a puzzling result of discriminatory rent extraction by political leaders from farmers in their ethnic home region. Linking a new database on the ethnic and regional affiliation of political leaders to fine-grained survey data, I disentangle ethnic and regional affiliations and show that their intersection explains the phenomenon which I will label in the following "reversed favoritism." More specifically, I provide evidence that agricultural price hikes indeed do not reduce poverty among co-ethnic farmers in the leader's birth region. My results indicate that leaders seem to act politically rational as they only apply this treatment in regions where they enjoy high trust. I show in an exploratory analysis that the counter-intuitive support of discriminatory policies can be explained by transfers in other areas, namely development aid. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, Favoritism, Ethnicity, African Agriculture, Development Aid |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:328236 |
| By: | Maxwell Fogler |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the trade-off that households in agrarian economies face between immediate production needs and long-term human capital investment. We ask how exogenous agricultural productivity shocks affect primary and secondary school enrollment in Rwanda, a country characterized by a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture alongside ambitious development goals. Using a district-level panel dataset for the years 2010-2021, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable strategy. Plausibly exogenous variation in annual rainfall is used to instrument for a satellite-derived measure of vegetation health and agricultural productivity, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing for a causal interpretation of the results. For primary education, where direct costs are low, enrollment is countercyclical: positive productivity shocks are associated with lower enrollment. Notably, boys' primary enrollment is found to be significantly more elastic to these shocks than girls' enrollment. Conversely, for secondary education, which entails additional financial outlays, enrollment is strongly procyclical. Positive productivity shocks lead to significant increases in enrollment. Further, a sustained positive shock is associated with a subsequent decline in female secondary enrollment. The results challenge previous regional findings supporting the "girls as a buffer" hypothesis and investigate the dynamic and gendered responses to the persistence of economic shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.10780 |
| By: | Tiantian Yang; Richard S. J. Tol |
| Abstract: | To address the dual environmental challenges of pollution and climate change, China has established multiple environmental markets, including pollution emissions trading, carbon emissions trading, energy-use rights trading, and green electricity trading. Previous empirical studies suffer from known biases arising from time-varying treatment and multiple treatments. To address these limitations, this study adopts a dynamic control group design and combines Difference-in-Difference (DiD) and Artificial Counterfactual (ArCo) empirical strategies. Using panel data on A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2024, this study investigates the marginal effects and interactive impacts of multiple environmental markets implemented in staggered and overlapping phases. Existing pollution emissions trading mitigates the negative effects of carbon emission trading. Carbon trading suppresses (improves) financial performance (if implemented alongside energy-use rights trading). The addition of energy-use rights or green electricity trading in regions already covered by carbon or pollution markets has no significant effects. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.26403 |
| By: | María Jesus Campion Arrastia; Emilio Dominguez Irastorza; Nuria Oses Eraso; Julen Perales Barriendo |
| Abstract: | The application of fertilisers is a fundamental aspect of soil fertility conservation. In recent decades, the growth in agricultural output has led to a significant increase in demand for fertilisers. The global fertiliser market is characterised by significant volatility and sensitivity to shifts in the global geopolitical landscape. In recent years, events such as the Russian aggression against Ukraine or export restrictions by the Chinese authorities have resulted in a considerable rise in prices and an increase in uncertainty about future behaviour. In this study, the prices of fertilisers typically available in Spain are employed to forecast not only the prices of fertilisers, but also those of essential macronutrients, namely nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Forecasting the prices of essential nutrients can inform the environmental assessment of human activities that modify the composition of soil nutrients. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nav:ecupna:2402 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Angelos Alamanos; Roy Brouwer; Sofia Frantzi; Conrad Landis; Lydia Papadaki; Hezal Sari; Theofanis Zacharatos |
| Abstract: | Water-system stress challenges driven by aridification, rapid urbanization and tourism peaks, irrigation-intensive agriculture, pollution, fiscal underinvestment and entrenched social inequities, need integrated and adaptive policy responses. We present the Global Climate Hub's interdisciplinary approach along with an application framework that was developed under the ERC-funded Water Futures project, aiming to tackle such challenges: We couple cross-sectoral modelling (physical and natural systems, water-energy systems, and economics), digital-twin forecasting and real-time monitoring, with experimental-economics, behavioural-economics and Living Labs to allow stakeholders' feedbacks and solutions' co-design. Through regulated sandboxes and randomized trials, the project tests pricing reforms, behavioural nudges and technological pilots (IoT/AI leak detection, decentralized treatment, nature-based solutions), producing robust socio-economic narratives and distributional metrics to inform investment choices. Preliminary policy guidance urges an iterative evidence loop of modelling-valuation- Living Lab validation and solution co-design, supported by open data, towards equitable tariff design, targeted subsidies, matched innovation financing and capacity building to scale proven solutions. The proposed approach translates diverse theories into operational pathways for resilient, efficient and socially just urban drinking-water systems, offering a replicable blueprint for regions facing water scarcity. |
| Keywords: | Water Resources Management, Socio-technical transformations, Behavioural Economics, Living Labs, Global Climate Hub |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2558 |
| By: | Mamadou Daffe (Direction générale du Budget du Ministère des Finances et du Budget du Sénégal) |
| Abstract: | This article studies the impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and Senegal on the country's dairy sector, using a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM) based on the model developed by Decaluwé and calibrated on Senegal's social accounting matrix (SAM) for the year 2014. The specificity of the model is the disaggregation of imports and exports according to their origin or destination, respectively through a CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) function and a CET (Constant Elasticity of Transformation) function. The results indicate that, for Senegal, the EPA has a rather negative impact on the dairy sector, and does not contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2.3). Its implementation leads to a lower production and to a reduced employment in the sector. It is also causing a drop in the demand for raw milk for intermediate consumption and a decline in rural household income. On the other hand, an increased taxation on milk powder imports will have a beneficial effect on the added value of the sector, the income of raw milk‑producing households and wage rates in the dairy sector |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie l'impact de l'Accord de Partenariat Économique (APE) entre l'Union européenne (UE) et le Sénégal sur la filière lait de ce pays avec un Modèle d'Équilibre Général Calculable (MEGC) dynamique récursif qui s'appuie sur le modèle développé par Decaluwé et calibré sur la matrice de comptabilité sociale (MCS) du Sénégal pour l'année 2014. La spécificité du modèle est la désagrégation des importations et des exportations selon l'origine ou la destination, respective‑ment au moyen d'une fonction CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) et d'une fonction CET (Constant Elasticity of Transformation). Les résultats montrent que pour le Sénégal, l'APE a un impact plutôt négatif sur la filière lait et ne contribue pas à l'atteinte des Objectifs de développement durable (ODD 2.3). Sa mise en œuvre entraînerait une contraction de la production et une baisse de l'emploi dans les branches productives du secteur. Elle causerait égale‑ment une baisse de la demande de lait brut en consommation intermédiaire et une diminution du revenu des ménages ruraux. En revanche, une augmentation de la taxe sur les importations de lait en poudre aurait un effet bénéfique sur la valeur ajoutée des branches d'activités de la filière, le revenu des ménages producteurs de lait brut et les taux de salaire dans l'industrie laitière. |
| Keywords: | Senegal, EPA, Dairy sector, APE, Sénégal, Filière lait |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05269536 |