|
on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Jimaima, Mulala; Muzeya, Hamwende; Lwisha, Charity Mutale; Chizyuka, Henry; Chisata, Chitambo Muyunda |
| Abstract: | Maize is both Zambia’s staple food crop and a key cash crop for smallholder farmers, yet the commercialization of maize production remains constrained by structural, economic, and institutional barriers. This study investigates the determinants of maize sales among smallholder farmers using nationally representative data from the 2015 Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS), covering over 8, 800 agricultural households. A multiple linear regression model was employed to assess the influence of socioeconomic, farm-level, institutional, and market-related factors on maize sales. Results indicate that maize commercialization is primarily shaped by economic and production-oriented variables rather than socio-demographic characteristics. Specifically, higher maize prices, larger cultivated areas, the use of hired labor, coupled with higher transport costs significantly increase maize sales, while reliance on unreliable price information exerts a strong negative effect. Conversely, factors such as gender, age, education, and distance to market were statistically insignificant, suggesting that structural constraints affect all farmers equally. These findings highlight the need for systemic interventions that reduce transaction costs through improved infrastructure, strengthen access to timely and reliable market information, and enhance production capacity via land access, input provision, and labor support. By addressing these universal barriers, policymakers and development partners can facilitate the transition of Zambia’s smallholder farmers from subsistence to market-oriented production, thereby improving rural incomes, food security, and national agricultural commercialization. |
| Keywords: | Maize commercialization; Smallholder farmers; Food security; Transaction costs; Agricultural policy |
| JEL: | Q1 Q13 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126050 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; armed conflicts; climate change; weather hazards; inputs; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168640 |
| By: | Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra |
| Abstract: | Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges confronting our global system today. The scientific community has clearly established that global temperatures are rising and the consequences of climate change may swiftly transition from an environmental risk to an economic threat. Agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable to changes in weather and climatic condition. Over 60% of the yield variability is chalked up to to climate change; significantly affecting food production and farmer income. Changes in climate affect the onset and duration of crop growing cycle, and the extent and duration of heat and water stress impact agriculture production. Moreover, it may trigger pest and disease outbreaks causing significant production losses. Small-scale farmers in rain-fed areas of Pakistan face the severe susceptibility to the challenges brought about by climate change. This vulnerability stems from their heavy dependence on traditional farming methods and their limited ability to adapt, exacerbated by their limited access to advanced technologies and high levels of poverty. Worldwide, crop yields from rainfed farming are approximately 50 percent less than those achieved through irrigated methods. In the absence of adaptation measures to cope with climate change, a potential decline of around 50 percent in rain-fed agricultural yields could potentially occur within the next 30-35 years. Promoting climate smart agricultural practices appears to be a dependable strategy for addressing risks posed by climate change. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; climate change; crop rotation; rainfed farming; vulnerability; Pakistan; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:139502 |
| By: | Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is a case of double injustice contributing a minuscule share of global greenhouse gases, yet it is bearing the brunt of global climate change impacts. It ranks among the top 10 countries vulnerable to climate change (Eckstein et al., 2021). The 2022 IPCC Report underlines the heightened vulnerabilities because of global warming and climate change leading to more floods. The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 20221, Pakistan could lose more than 9 percent of its annual GDP due to climate change. The Notre Dame- Gain Matrix2 ranks Pakistan 5th most impacted country by climate change shocks and is positioned as the 36th least-prepared nation to cope with climate changes (The World Bank Group, 2021). Besides, Pakistan scores worst on the indicator of Agriculture Capacity3 at 0.939. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate changes because of its arid to semi-arid environmental conditions (Nasim et al., 2018; Ullah et al., 2019, Ghaffar et al., 2022). Over the last two decades, the country has been facing the challenges of rising temperature, extreme heatwaves, drought, intense and erratic precipitation, water stress, glacial melting, recurring flash floods and super floods in 2010 and 2022. The combination of reduced crop yields, water scarcity, and changing agricultural practices can lead to severe food insecurity and economic challenges for marginalized communities and more importantly, for farmers. In July-August 2022, Pakistan faced unprecedented rainfall and riverine floods damaging cultivated crops, livestock and the infrastructure. Approximately 4.4 million acres of crops were damaged, and nearly 1 million animals perished. The total cost of damages and losses was estimated at $30.13 billion, with agriculture accounting for $12.9 billion (43 percent of the total) (Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2021-22). |
| Keywords: | agriculture; greenhouse gases; climate change; climate-smart agriculture; Pakistan; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:138510 |
| By: | Kinuthia, Dickson; Oingo, Balentine; Bryan, Elizabeth; Davis, Kristin E.; Wallin, Elsa; Bukachi, Salome A. |
| Abstract: | Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path. |
| Keywords: | agricultural production; gender; natural resources; nature-based solutions; smallholders; sustainability; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169362 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; development; policy analysis; reforms; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168997 |
| By: | Sharma, Kriti; Kumar, Anjani; Kumar, Nalini Ranjan |
| Abstract: | Potato remains a crucial crop for achieving India’s food security goals and generating income for small-scale farmers. But India, the largest potato producer after China, remains behind many of its peers in attaining high yield. A low varietal replacement rate could be one of the major reasons for low yield in India. This critical issue warrants investigation, yet empirical results remain limited in the Indian context. Drawing on data from a comprehensive field survey of 892 potato growing farmers conducted in 2018–19 across five major potato-producing states in India, we find the determinants of the average area-weighted age of potato varieties used, and their impact on potato yield. The instrumental variable regression analysis establishes a negative association between varietal age and yield of potato. It also underscores the importance of access to weather forecast and linkages with agricultural organizations to achieve higher yield. Furthermore, it shows that household size, links to political party, and information about new seeds from friends, progressive farmers and input dealers are associated with lower varietal age. These insights will be instrumental for policymakers and potato breeders in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and boosting food security in India amidst the impending demographic challenges. |
| Keywords: | crop yield; food security; policy innovation; potato harvesters; regression analysis; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152446 |
| By: | Adeyanju, Dolapo; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Gelli, Aulo; Idowu, Ifetayo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income. The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals. |
| Keywords: | school feeding; efficiency; sustainability; agricultural development; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:158431 |
| By: | Ali Akram; Kannika Thampanishvong |
| Abstract: | Climate change threatens agricultural sustainability, making the nexus of farm-level adaptation and economic performance a critical area of scientific inquiry. In Thailand, New Theory Agriculture (NTA) is a diversification strategy designed to enhance farmer resilience against climate and market risks. This study provides an experimental evaluation of the NTA's effectiveness, quantifying its impacts by comparing a treatment cohort of NTA adopters against a control group of non-adopters. The analysis reveals that NTA has a statistically significant positive effect on both farm diversification and profitability. Notably, participants in the NTA earned an average of $971 more in net farm revenue per growing season than their counterparts. This result contributes to the literature by empirically challenging the posited trade-off between resilience-oriented diversification and economic returns. Ultimately, the findings demonstrate that NTA represents an effective paradigm for concurrently achieving climate adaptation and economic sustainability in the Thai agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | New Theory Agriculture; Thailand; Climate change adaptation; Agricultural diversification |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:239 |
| By: | Kariuki, Sarah W.; Mohamed, Asha B.; Mutuku, Urbanus; Mutegi, Charity; Bandyopadhyay, Ranajit; Hoffmann, Vivian |
| Abstract: | Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact. |
| Keywords: | food safety; aflatoxins; impact assessment; agricultural technology; smallholders; training; maize; crops; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168192 |
| By: | Lena Kalukuta Mahina |
| Abstract: | This PhD thesis focuses on the development of circular agriculture solutions to enhance sustainability in African farming. The first chapter examines the broader potential of circular agriculture, particularly in maize farming, across Africa. Agriculture is essential to the continent's development, but the challenge remains in balancing productivity with sustainability. Circular agriculture, with its emphasis on restoring soil fertility, reducing dependency on chemical fertilizers, and minimizing ecological footprints, presents a promising solution. Through a literature review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology, this chapter identifies successful case studies and underscores the need for effective indicators to measure circularity, specifically in maize production. Building on this foundation, Chapter 2 explores a practical application of circular agriculture in Morocco, where a composting station dedicated to recycling date palm by-products was established. This chapter investigates the economic viability of such circular solutions, analyzing the compost’s impact on soil fertility and its adoption by local farmers in the Figuig Oasis. A detailed cost-benefit analysis reveals that, despite challenges, the project offers significant environmental and socio-economic benefits, with potential for replication in other similar agro-ecosystems. Finally, Chapter 3 focuses on maize productivity in the Haut-Katanga and Lualaba provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Using a data-driven approach, this chapter assesses the socio-economic and environmental factors that influence maize yields in these regions. The study emphasizes the role of data in informing on agricultural practices and suggests that circular solutions, informed by predictive modeling, could play a crucial role in improving productivity and food security in the DRC. Together, these chapters highlight the potential of circular agriculture to transform African farming into a more sustainable and productive system. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Circular; Agriculture; Date palm; Maize |
| Date: | 2025–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/394367 |
| By: | Hazell, Peter B. R.; Timu, Anne G. |
| Abstract: | Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services. |
| Keywords: | agricultural insurance; case studies; farmers; literature review; private sector |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169010 |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being. |
| Keywords: | smallholders; land rights; loans; livelihoods; weather; credit; remote sensing; access to finance; gender; impact assessment; insurance; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162767 |
| By: | Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop-livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock systems, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later, with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from the separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indications, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies. |
| Keywords: | crops; economics; livestock; weather; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152379 |
| By: | Abdelaziz, Fatma; Tarek, Abdallah |
| Abstract: | The rapid adoption of mobile phones in agricultural and production systems provides an avenue to unlock the potential of digital innovations to transform smallholder agriculture in low- and middle-income countries. Previous research highlights how the adoption of digital tools can enhance farmers' profits and marketing outcomes by improving market efficiency through better supply and demand matching. Other research similarly emphasizes how digital innovations can facilitate agricultural transformation and transform the functioning of markets by addressing multiple forms of institutional and market failures. However, despite these advantages and the availability of numerous digital tools for agriculture, their adoption remains low and uneven across Africa, where agricultural markets are still underdeveloped. Smallholder farmers in developing countries, including Egypt, face challenges in accessing essential information, which limits their ability to leverage market opportunities and maximize profitability. Given the limited understanding of the primary challenges hindering Egyptian farmers' adoption of digital technologies and the strategies needed to enhance their access to these innovations, this paper aims to utilize an extensive survey of smallholder farmers in Egypt to: (i) examine the constraints to adoption of digital agricultural tools in Egypt; and (ii) assess the impact of farmer training programs on the awareness and adoption of digital tools, using the Mahsoly mobile application and its new price monitoring tool as a case study. |
| Keywords: | digital innovation; farming systems; mobile phones; smallholders; Egypt; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:152510 |
| By: | Pal, Barun Deb; Kapoor, Shreya; Rashid, Shahidur |
| Abstract: | Salt water intrusion and rising soil salnity are threatening food and livelihood security of paddy farmers in coastal Bangladesh. Visible manifestations of these challenges are degraded soils and chronic decline in tradtional farming, as it is becoming an increasingly infeasible means of livelihood. Promoting saline-tolerant paddy varieties (STRV) has been one of the major focuses of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and the attention to the problem has been intensified in recent years through a partnerhsip with a consortium of CGIAR centers. Howewer, robust empirical analysis has hitherto been limited. Using farm level data, this paper analyzes the determinants and impacts of the adopting these new varieties. We use a multi-variate logit model to identify the constraints to adoption, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Endogeneous Switching Regression methods to assess the impacts on yeilds, and net income of the paddy farmers. Results show that adopting saline-tolerant rice varieties raises crop yield by an average of 1 to 2 tons per hectare, equivalent to a net income increase of about US$100 per hectare of cultivated land. Yet, adoption rates remain low due to several institutional constraints and perhaps a lack of nudging farmers in the scaling up strategies. Robustness of the results are tested, and the implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation; impact; livelihoods; saltwater intrusion; rice; seeds; soil; technology adoption; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:159540 |
| By: | Katoch, Sonali; Kumar, Anjani; Kolady, Deepthi E.; Sharma, Kriti |
| Abstract: | This study examines the adoption of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional data collected at the farm level in three key states of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh in 2023. A Food Safety Index (FSI) was developed to assess the intensity of adoption of food safety practices. Determinants of compliance with practices were assessed using multiple linear regression and an ordered logistic model. Generalized propensity score matching was used to evaluate the heterogenous impact of the adoption of FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are embracing a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the food safety index at the farm level. The various socioeconomic and demographic factors influence compliance with FSM which include education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure. The impact assessment reveals the direct relationship between FSM compliance and performance indicators. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, and strengthening formal marketing channels. |
| Keywords: | dairy farming; data; food safety; impact assessment; smallholders; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152508 |
| By: | Melesse, Mequanint B.; Duche, Vishwambhar; Guvvalavenkata, Anupama; Kumar, Dron; Sanil, Richu; Falk, Thomas; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S. |
| Abstract: | Water is a vital resource for agricultural production, sustaining ecosystem services, and supporting livelihoods of communities. However, population growth and climate change coupled with unsustainable water use and management are increasingly pushing the limits of water resources. In many parts of India, water scarcity is already posing a threat to agricultural systems and livelihoods due to prolonged droughts and climate variability. Water scarcity is more pronounced in semi-arid and arid dryland regions of India, where the majority of these regions are characterized as high to extreme water stress areas. Effective management and governance of water resources is crucial to sustain productivity of dryland agricultural systems and livelihoods in these regions. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; water; water management; surface water; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:168925 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face. |
| Keywords: | farm inputs; financial inclusion; food security; households; inorganic fertilizers; seeds; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162588 |
| By: | Yami, Mastewal; Cavicchioli, Martina; Abate, Gashaw T.; Kramer, Berber |
| Abstract: | Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies. |
| Keywords: | gender; social inclusion; teff; wheat; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:159546 |
| By: | Aladesuru, Damilola T.; Kasule, James B.; Bosch, Christine; Kato, Edward; Ringler, Claudia; Birner, Regina |
| Abstract: | While video extension is a recognized means to overcome the challenges posed by traditional agricultural advisory services, adoption has been limited. This paper presents two case studies conducted in Kenya and Uganda that explore the potential of video extension for promoting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. In Kenya, videos were rolled out by GROOTS Kenya, which predominantly serves women farmers. In Uganda, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries’ Agricultural Extension Services implemented the video rollout, focusing on both women and men farmers. We used qualitative research linked to both video rollouts to understand the benefits and challenges linked to the intervention. We also compared the implementation strategies used in the two countries to evaluate the suitability of videos as a “best fit” advisory provision tool. Both women and men farmers enjoyed watching the videos. They improved farmers' access to information, resulting in increased knowledge and adoption of CSA practices. Costs involved in some practices affected their adoption as did lack of intrahousehold decision-making power, particularly for women. In some cases, infrastructural challenges complicated the video showings. The findings underscore the importance of complementing traditional agricultural extension with interactive and context-specific video content without replacing and neglecting other modes of extension, as well as the need for political support to ensure the scalability and long-term success of video extension initiatives. |
| Keywords: | agricultural extension; climate-smart agriculture; decision making; farmers; women; Kenya; Uganda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152283 |
| By: | Jimaima, Mulala |
| Abstract: | This pilot study examines the role of language in the adoption and correct use of agricultural inputs among smallholder farmers in Zambia. Conducted with 15 farmers from linguistically diverse communities, the research explores how language preferences, comprehension levels, and communication channels shape decision-making around agricultural technologies. Despite high levels of formal education among participants, many expressed a strong preference for receiving agricultural information in local languages such as Bemba, Nyanja, Soli, Tonga, Lozi, and Lamba. Language barriers particularly those involving English-only labels and technical jargon were found to contribute to misinterpretation of instructions, misuse of inputs, and crop losses. The study also revealed limited engagement with extension officers and a growing reliance on agro-dealers and online platforms, raising concerns about the accessibility and accuracy of information. Findings emphasize the need for multilingual labelling, visual aids, and culturally resounding communication methods in agricultural extension and input dissemination. By highlighting the critical link between language, comprehension, and input adoption, the study calls for policy and programmatic attention to linguistic inclusion as a core element of agricultural development. The results provide a foundation for larger-scale research and offer practical recommendations to improve communication strategies in Zambia’s multilingual farming communities. |
| Keywords: | Multilingualism; Agricultural inputs; Smallholder farmers; Extension; Adoption; information |
| JEL: | Q00 Q01 Q10 |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126056 |
| By: | Laura Peralta; Marie Boltz; Philippe Delacote; Kenneth Houngbedji; Julien Jacob |
| Abstract: | We examine the environmental impacts of legal provisions to restore land rights for populations displaced by armed conflict, focusing on Colombia’s Land Restitution Law. Leveraging annual satellite data on forest cover loss, detailed records of the timing and location of restitution claims, and a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, we find that land restitution is associated with increased tree cover loss. Importantly, this effect is not driven by deforestation in primary forests, but rather by forest loss in areas formerly used for agriculture. These findings highlight the environmental trade-offs inherent in post-conflict land reforms. While restoring land rights is critical for transitional justice and economic recovery, attention to environmental outcomes is essential to ensure sustainable and equitable reconstruction. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Land rights, Internal conflict, Colombia |
| JEL: | O12 O13 O17 D74 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-38 |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Xu, Wenqian |
| Abstract: | Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners. |
| Keywords: | agricultural transformation; economic development; productivity; structural adjustment |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152282 |
| By: | Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.; Falk, Thomas; Sanil, Richu; ElDidi, Hagar; Zhang, Wei; Kosec, Katrina; Melesse, Mequanint B.; Duche, Vishwambhar |
| Abstract: | Unsustainable water management is associated with reduced agricultural production and poverty, reduced ecosystem services and resilience, and insufficient and unreliable domestic water access. As a common pool resource with high subtractability and low excludability, water is easily depleted if no effective coordination exists among users to ensure provision and regulate withdrawals. This creates one of the greatest challenges for people living in semi-arid and arid environments. The majority of India’s population is estimated to face physical water scarcity for at least part of the year, with 600 million people living in areas of high to extreme water stress. As water management is highly complex, with many users sharing the same resource but often unknown to each other, stopping overuse is difficult, especially when it is more profitable to irrigate water-consumptive crops than water-conserving crops. Farmers, policymakers, donors, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in India have all articulated the need for more effective tools to improve water management and governance. Coordination and effective management of water resources are crucial to sustain agricultural productivity, but so far progress has been disappointing. Technical tools such as crop water budgeting can play an important role in enabling communities to manage their water resources, but unless communities have the knowledge and motivation to use these tools, their application and impacts are limited. To date, attention to the question of how knowledge about collectively available water is translated into effective management through collective action, norms and rules has been insufficient. Blueprint rules introduced in a top-down manner have not changed water users’ behavior. However, there is strong evidence that effective community rules and their enforcement can motivate such behavior. The better these rules fit the social-ecological context and internalized norms, the more effective they will be. Participatory development approaches have addressed these challenges. The key question is how to promote such coordination, rules, and behavior in a participatory way without external imposition and in a low-cost manner that allows largescale implementation. |
| Keywords: | agricultural production; sustainability; water governance; water management; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:162988 |
| By: | Kane, Papa Abdoulaye; Barry, Mamadou Bobo; Eissler, Sarah; Tall, Thiané; Camara, Astou Diao; Sall, Moussa; Fass, Simone; Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Goats are an important source of income, nutrition and resilience in Senegal. This study assesses opportunities to strengthen women’s agency, increase resilience to climate change, and improve nutrition along the various stages of goat value chains from the acquisition of feed resources and other inputs to processing, marketing and consumption of various goat products. The qualitative study finds that even though goats are more climate resilient than other livestock, climate change impacts on goat production and productivity are increasingly felt, particularly through impacts on feed resources. The study identified opportunities to strengthen women’s roles along the goat value chain, particularly in goat production and, to a lesser extent, in processing of goat products. Women and their families also benefit from the consumption of goat milk and women have some degree of control over income from the sale of goat products. Strengthening women’s agency in these nutrient-rich and relatively climate-resilient value chains will require improving their access to land resources and better animal feeds, supporting women’s groups and building women’s capacity for processing and marketing goat products, improving access to electricity for cold storage of goat products, and raising awareness regarding the nutritional benefits of goat products, especially for women and children. |
| Keywords: | climate change; goats; nutrition; climate resilience; value chains; women’s empowerment; gender; Senegal; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152294 |
| By: | Kumar, Shalander; Kumar, G. Kishore; Roa, K.P.C. |
| Abstract: | Smallholder agriculture, especially in the global South, is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change; hence, the aim of the Digital Innovation initiative was to equip farmers with actionable weather-based agro advisories to improve farm management and mitigate climate risks. This working paper explores the delivery of contextualized climate information to farmers in Rayagada and Gajapati districts of Odisha. The region is characterized by predominantly rainfed agriculture and high vulnerability to climate variability. The objective was to enhance farmers' resilience by providing tailored climate advisories and understand the dynamics of their decision-making across various farming stages while using agro advisories. A mixed-methods approach was employed, involving surveys with 200 farmers across four blocks of two districts and focus group discussions to gather comprehensive insights into their decision-making processes. The study found that 79% of farmers were male, while 21% were female, highlighting the need for gender-sensitive advisories. Decision-making was influenced by a complex interplay of traditional knowledge, market dynamics, climate advisories, and social influences. Digital climate services, such as those offered by ISAT, have shown to be valuable, with 82% of farmers accessing these advisories. Adoption rates varied significantly across different farming activities, with 67% adoption for supporting crop sowing decisions and 69% for crop protection, compared to lower uptake in land preparation (29%) and irrigation (24%). For decisions on crop and cultivar choice, farmers didn’t intend to use the weather-based agro-advisories yet. Probably, advisories based on the seasonal climate forecast needed for decisions on crop and cultivar choices in the past either were not available or less reliable, resulting in the reluctance of farmers to use such advisories. The findings suggest that climate advisory services should be more localized, culturally sensitive, and integrated with traditional practices to address farmers' diverse needs effectively. By bridging the gap between modern advisory systems and traditional wisdom, these integrated services have the potential to enhance farm-level resilience and contribute meaningfully to the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Odisha. |
| Keywords: | digital innovation; Information and Communication Technologies; crop management; India |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:163043 |
| By: | Yi, Jing; Jiang, Shiyun; Tran, Dianna; Gómez, Miguel I.; Canning, Patrick; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Barrett, Christopher B. |
| Abstract: | The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | food systems; agricultural development; gender gap; input output analysis; labour; agricultural value chains; employment; structural adjustment |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168646 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, Abenezer |
| Abstract: | Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation. |
| Keywords: | public works; public investment; watershed management; small-scale irrigation; nutrition; resilience; social safety nets; food security; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168643 |
| By: | Benfica, Rui; Hossain, Marup; Davis, Kristin E.; Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Azzarri, Carlo |
| Abstract: | Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost” of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; environment; food security; sustainability; true cost accounting; food production; Kenya; Vietnam; Africa; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152074 |
| By: | Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; Pradhan, Mamata |
| Abstract: | Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is pivotal in combating the impacts of climate change on global agriculture and food security. It has increasingly gained prominence as an adaptation strategy against the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly in South Asia. However, scaling up the adoption of CSA interventions becomes critical, due to predominantly small and marginal nature of landholdings in the region, various institutional and policy constraints, and trade regulations and barriers. Another significant challenge lies in categorizing and prioritizing the multitude of technologies considered to be climate smart. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the different CSA technologies within the socio-economic context of six South Asian countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with the main objective of proioritization and scaling-up of these methods. The study begins by compiling an inventory of existing technologies and subsequently prioritizing them by using the World Bank (WB) CSA Technology Index. Secondly, the study tries to address the key challenges and propose policy measures to upscale the adoption of CSA technologies in these countries using participatory research conducted with the key stakeholders in these countries. The participatory research provided valuable insights, revealing critical policy and institutional barriers, and providing a basis for framing strategies and policy solutions to facilitate wider adoption of CSA technologies in the region. |
| Keywords: | climate change; climate-smart agriculture; prioritization; scaling up; Bangladesh; Bhutan; India; Nepal; Pakistan; Sri Lanka; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:155261 |
| By: | Headey, Derek D. |
| Abstract: | Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts. |
| Keywords: | food insecurity; malnutrition; prevalence of undernourishment; poverty; stunting |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169686 |
| By: | HarvestPlus |
| Abstract: | As we mark the 20th anniversary of HarvestPlus in 2023, I am pleased to share progress towards our mission of addressing hidden hunger in the Global South through biofortification. Our journey to improve nutrition and health is making a difference in the lives of the most vulnerable people. It is heartening to share that in 2023, over 103 million people in farming families across Africa, Asia, and Latin America were eating nutrientenriched foods made from biofortified crops that they grew on their farms, and over 227 million people were accessing through markets. There is additional reach of biofortified crops through organizations like International Potato Center (CIP), The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, and others. In a world where three billion people cannot afford a healthy diet, our work is making a meaningful contribution in providing healthy and affordable nutritious foods to over 330 million people. However, much more needs to be done to enrich food systems and provide access to safe, affordable healthy diets, especially for the most vulnerable people. Through strategic partnerships with public, private, and civil society actors and robust research alliances with CGIAR crop breeding centers and national agricultural research and extension systems (NARES), we have significantly expanded the production and distribution of biofortified crops. By the end of 2023, more than 443 varieties of biofortified crops were released in more than 40 countries, and over 20.7 million farming households were cultivating these varieties on their farms. Our evidence led policy and regulatory reform efforts continue to successfully influence national and regional policies and shape nutrition agendas, leading to an enabling environment for public and private sector investments and support for biofortified crops. This is essential for accelerated uptake, sustainability, and longterm impact. We maintained a focus on ensuring women, adolescent girls, and young children are prioritized and benefit from biofortification, and efforts to increase the economic empowerment of women smallholder farmers and women-led SMEs are gaining momentum. HarvestPlus has also made significant strides in enriching school meal programs with biofortified foods. By incorporating these nutrient-rich crops into school feeding initiatives, we are not only addressing malnutrition but also fostering healthier, more productive futures for children around the world and contributing to nation building. During 2023, HarvestPlus integrated with IFPRI and the wider CGIAR, strengthening our nutrition research, evidence generation, and policy and advocacy efforts. With our crop development partners across CGIAR and national agriculture research systems, we will help facilitate better and more nutritious crop varieties and innovations are developed and released. These innovations will be delivered to our beneficiaries through private and public partnerships including with HarvestPlus Solutions, the scaling arm of HarvestPlus, with a goal of improving the lives and resilience of 1 billion people in the next decade. I extend my sincere gratitude and appreciation to all the members of the HarvestPlus Program Advisory Committee (PAC) as their work comes to an end with the successful integration. The PAC played a critical role in guiding and providing oversight over the last 20 years and placing the HarvestPlus program in this position of strength. This milestone year reflects the dedication and passion of our team members, partners, donors, and supporters. Together, we have made meaningful strides in advancing our mission, for which we are very grateful. The path ahead is full of opportunities to deepen the impact and improve lives of millions more, drive further innovation, and continue our mission to alleviate malnutrition globally. |
| Keywords: | gender; biofortification; impact; food systems |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:annrep:176136 |
| By: | Ragasa, Catherine; Umar, Sulaiman; Sani, Rabiu Mohammed; Onyibe, Johnson E.; Omoigui, Lucky; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Andam, Kwaw S. |
| Abstract: | This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity. Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers. Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed. |
| Keywords: | cowpeas; maize; seed systems; supply balance; varietal screening; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162923 |
| By: | Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Ergasheva, Tanzila; Lambrecht, Isabel B. |
| Abstract: | Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1, 704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations. |
| Keywords: | food security; malnutrition; gender; diet; intrahousehold relations; dietary diversity; Tajikistan; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162924 |
| By: | Benson, Todd; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Masanjala, Winford |
| Abstract: | Malawi has been at the center of the debate on agricultural input subsidies in Africa ever since it significantly expanded its fertilizer subsidy program about two decades ago. When it did so, Malawi was a trailblazer, receiving international attention for seemingly leveraging the subsidy program to move the country from a situation characterized by food deficits and widespread hunger to crop production surpluses. In this paper we trace the history of Malawi’s subsidy program over the past 70 years, describing how the country arrived at that watershed moment earlier this century and how the subsidy program has developed since. We show how donor support for the program has wavered and how external pressure to remove the subsidy has repeatedly been unsuccessful. We also demonstrate how over the years the program’s total fiscal burden has fluctuated significantly. However, we find that since the expansion of the subsidy program in 2004, the fiscal costs of the program have shown little correlation with the maize harvest that same agricultural season. We show that the subsidy program has succeeded in raising awareness about the value of the fertilizer for increased crop productivity. However, despite its continued prominence in the country’s agricultural policy, most Malawian smallholder do not manage to grow sufficient maize to feed their households throughout the year, and every year millions depend on food assistance during the worst months of the lean season. |
| Keywords: | fertilizers; subsidies; maize; food security; Malawi; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspp:138880 |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. |
| Keywords: | climate; rice; risk; trade; vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168523 |
| By: | Eissler, Sarah; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | We present findings from a qualitative study conducted as part of an impact assessment of the Programme to Reduce Vulnerability in Coastal Fishing Areas (PRAREV) , supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and implemented from 2013 to 2021. This study was designed to focus solely on the gender aspects of PRAREV, which overall aimed to support fishing communities and actors in the fishing sector in Djibouti, specifically those living in rural coastal areas affected by climate change, by reducing their vulnerability to the effects of climate change and promote co-management of marine resources. The program targeted those who are poor and who rely on fishing, particularly women involved in fish processing and marketing. The qualitative findings shared in this paper complement findings from an accompanying quantitative study, which found positive effects of the program on incomes, production, women’s influence on decisions, and food security, but not on resilience or nutritional status. We used multiple qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with program staff and men and women leaders and members of fishing organizations to examine the following research questions focused on the gender component of the program: 1) How the program was delivered from multiple perspectives; 2) How the program strengthened the fishers’ and fishmonger associations; and 3) The benefits and costs of the program in the areas of climate change resilience, livelihoods, and changes in the fishing sector. While PRAREV aimed to take a gender-sensitive approach, the gender strategy and its delivery could have been improved. PRAREV mainly reached women by intentionally including women fishing organizations so that they could benefit from access to collective resources, training, and knowledge. PRAREV trainings often were not communicated to women members of fishing organizations, which led to women’s relative exclusion compared to men members. However, participants shared both positive and negative feedback on the PRAREV program. They generally agreed that when delivered, the trainings were well received and increased knowledge and awareness of climate change and knowledge of upgrading techniques in the fishing sector. The climate change trainings developed awareness about the drivers of climate change and taught best practices on the preservation of local marine resources. However, these trainings did not address adaptation to depleted fish populations in mangroves or reefs. Other trainings focused on value chain upgrading were well received and when delivered, increased relevant knowledge. However, their reach was limited, particularly among women fishing organization members. Finally, PRAREV provided organizations key resources for value chain upgrading and integration in the fishing sector in a way that preserved the local marine environment (e.g., boats, knives, fishing wires, nets). While fishing organization members spoke positively of these resources, there were challenges in delivering them. They were delivered late in the project, often without training or a sustainability plan, or were often not delivered as promised, creating frustration and tension among group members. They were also often delivered in smaller quantities than originally communicated and as such, the recipient fishing organizations limited their use. Overall, group members felt there was limited transparency in delivering these resources. Based on these findings, we share recommendations for PRAREV and similar programs. We suggest conducting formative research on the local fishing sector to identify how men and women want to participate and the key barriers they face in doing so. With respect to resource provision, programs should provide resources earlier and should deliver them with a sustainability plan that has community buy in. Implementers should aim to understand how groups could make use of high-value common property to enable transparency and sustainability. Trainings should also be tailored to the local context and be more in-depth. Importantly, program staff should ensure that all intended beneficiaries, especially women, are invited and able to participate in program trainings so that all members can benefit from the knowledge, awareness, and skill building gained at each training event. Programs should implement a more robust monitoring plan to ensure resources are adequately used and equitably distributed, and that all intended beneficiary groups benefit equitably. Finally, although PRAREV was designed to undertake a gender-sensitive approach, further refinement of this approach could likely improve program delivery and impact. A gender accommodative approach would have supported and empowered women from within the traditional gender roles that they feel more comfortable with to participate and upgrade in their respective fishing activities. |
| Keywords: | fishing; gender; vulnerability; women's empowerment; Djibouti; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:155277 |
| By: | Andam, Kwaw S.; Amare, Mulubrhan; Zambrano, Patricia; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Chambers, Judith A. |
| Abstract: | Nigeria is the largest consumer and producer of cowpea in Africa. Produced predominantly by smallholder farmers, cowpea is relied on by millions of Nigerians and is one of their main sources of affordable protein. Despite cowpea’s economic relevance (Nwagboso et al. 2024; Phillip et al. 2019), cowpea yields in Nigeria have barely grown over the last 20 years. One of the main abiotic constraints of the crop is the pod-borer insect (Maruca vitrata), which can cause damages of up to 80 percent. Given that conventional breeding has not been successful in addressing this constraint, local and international efforts over the last decades focused on developing a pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea. The culmination of these efforts in Nigeria was the commercial release of the PBR cowpea variety SAMPEA-20T in late 2019. This is a significant milestone, as it was the first transgenic food crop to be approved for cultivation in Nigeria. In its programming under the “Feed the Future Innovative Maize and Cowpea Technologies to Increase Food and Nutrition Security in Africa” activity, implemented by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) aims for an adoption rate of PBR cowpea in Nigeria of 25 percent by 2025, with yield gains of 20 percent and accompanying reductions in pesticide applications. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) Program for Biosafety Systems (PBS) is leading a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) project, funded by USAID. The study goal is to generate causal evidence of the use of the PBR cowpea variety and its consequential household and farm impacts and associated value chain effects. In a collaboration with IFPRI’s Nigeria Country Office, PBS is leading and coordinating the overall study while the IFPRI-Nigeria Country Office designs and implements the quantitative and qualitative approaches to the evaluation. IFPRI has worked with technology developers, the AATF and its partners (including private local seed companies), to ensure access to necessary data and cooperation by the evaluation team, while maintaining the team’s independence. To ensure such required independence, the evaluation team has separated the cooperation in implementing the evaluation (including distributing inputs) from the data analysis. The evaluation team will continue to maintain its independence in the methodological approach and the analysis of the results from the implemented randomized controlled trial (RCT), adhering to international standards. |
| Keywords: | cowpeas; smallholders; nutrition; yields; pests; transgenic plants; value chains; impact assessment; Nigeria; Western Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:nsspwp:145074 |
| By: | Ceballos, Francisco; Chugh, Aditi; Kramer, Berber |
| Abstract: | The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization. |
| Keywords: | agricultural extension; artificial intelligence; farmers; inputs; India; Kenya; Asia; Southern Asia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169348 |
| By: | Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Hoddinott, John F.; Roy, Shalini |
| Abstract: | Evidence shows that cash and in-kind transfer programs increase food security while interventions are ongoing, including during or immediately after shocks. But less is known about whether receipt of these programs can have protective effects for household food security against shocks that occur several years after interventions end. We study the effects of a transfer program implemented as a cluster-randomized control trial in rural Bangladesh from 2012-2014 – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) – on food security in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess TMRI’s impacts at three post-program time points: before the shock (2018), amidst the shock (2021), and after the immediate effects of the shock (2022). We find that TMRI showed protective effects on household food security during and after the pandemic, but program design features “mattered”; positive impacts were only seen in the treatment arm that combined cash transfers with nutrition behavior change communication (Cash+BCC). Other treatment arms – cash only, and food only – showed no significant sustained effects on our household food security measures after the intervention ended, nor did they show protective effects during the pandemic. A plausible mechanism is that investments made by Cash+BCC households in productive assets – specifically livestock – increased their pre-shock resilience capacity. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; resilience; shock; social protection; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:155053 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John |
| Abstract: | Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | subsidies; fertilizers; resilience; supply chain disruptions; supply chains; global value chains; maize; smallholders; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168639 |
| By: | Asante, Felix A.; Asante, Seth |
| Abstract: | This report is produced from the proceedings of the Inception workshop on “Strengthening National Capacities and Policies for Food Systems analysis and Transformation in Ghana” project held on Wednesday, 2nd August 2023 at Alisa Hotel, Accra. The workshop aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the project and outlined its objectives, and timeline, alongside a review of the current landscape of the Ghana’s Food Systems Transformation. It brought together various stakeholders and institutions in the Ghanaian food systems. The workshop facilitated valuable discussions among participants to gather insights and inputs for the project's advancement (see attached list of participants). Three distinct presentations – project overview, project deliverables and timelines, and food systems diagnostics and tools as well as trade-offs and opportunities – were made at the workshop. |
| Keywords: | food systems; capacity development; sustainable development; food security; nutrition; Ghana; Western Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:140482 |
| By: | Zahniser, Steven |
| Abstract: | This economic brief explores changes in U.S. horticultural imports from Mexico between 2007–09 and 2021–23. These imports grew significantly during the period studied, boosting U.S. per capita availability of a wide range of fresh produce. This growing trade was accompanied by shifts in U.S. horticultural production, including declines for some types of fruit and vegetables. In real terms (2023 U.S. dollars), U.S. horticultural imports from Mexico grew from an annual average of $7.3 billion during 2007–09 to $19.7 billion during 2021–23. Imports increased for all 20 of the leading horticultural imports from Mexico—with avocados, raspberries, strawberries, blueberries, and lettuce increasing the most in terms of their shares of total U.S. horticultural imports from Mexico. An expansion of Mexicoʼs production made possible the increase in U.S. horticultural imports from Mexico, to the extent that for some products (blueberries, chile peppers, lettuce, blackberries, cauliflower, and broccoli, for example), Mexicoʼs horticultural sector became more oriented towards the U.S. market. In the cases of avocados and blueberries, the increase in imports began when the U.S. markets for these products were just starting to undergo substantial growth, rather than when those markets were mature and growing slowly. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:371448 |
| By: | Hoffmann, Vivian; Murphy, Mike; Kariuki, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Unsafe food imposes significant health and productivity burdens on developing countries. We test the impact of a simple information intervention through which low-income urban consumers in Kenya were provided information about the likelihood that maize flour from the formal and informal sector violated a food safety standard. We find a 42 percent increase in the share of households consuming the similarly priced, lower risk formal sector flour type at follow-up in the treatment group relative to the control group, from a base of 33 percent. The intervention was equally effective for households earning below and above the sample median income level. Our results demonstrate the potential for low-cost interventions to increase the salience of food safety as a product attribute in informal markets or where regulatory enforcement is weak. |
| Keywords: | consumers; food safety; health; households; productivity |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168191 |
| By: | Ray, Soumyajit; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Bhanjdeo, Arundhita; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs)—farmer collectives, often legally registered - can mitigate some of the constraints smallholder farmers face by improving their access to extension, services, and markets, especially for women. We evaluate the effects of a set of interventions delivered through women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, India, using a panel of 1200 households and a difference-in-difference model with nearest neighbor matching. A complementary qualitative study in the same areas helps triangulate and interpret our findings. The interventions aimed to improve agricultural productivity by coordinating production and improving access to services, while also providing gender sensitization trainings to FPO leaders and members. We collect household data on asset ownership and agricultural outcomes and individual data on women’s and men’s empowerment using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). Our results for asset ownership, land cultivated, cropping intensity, and per acre yields, revenues or costs are statistically insignificant. Effects on men’s and women's empowerment are mixed. While we see positive effects on women’s decisionmaking, asset ownership, control over income and attitudes towards intimate partner violence, the program is associated with an increase in workload and a reduction in active group membership for both men and women. Men appear to cede control over resources and decisionmaking to other household members. Additional analyses suggest that while some effects can occur in the short-term, others take time to accrue. FPO based interventions that aim to empower women or other marginalized groups likely require sustained investments over multiple years and will need to go beyond improving FPO functioning and increasing women’s participation to transforming social norms. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; farmers organizations; cooperatives; markets; prices; yields; empowerment; smallholders; women; gender; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:151877 |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora |
| Abstract: | Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region. |
| Keywords: | shock; food prices; fertilizers; markets; price volatility; inflation; food security; welfare; Central America |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162957 |
| By: | Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1, 053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit. |
| Keywords: | credit; productivity; investment; smallholders; welfare; risk; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:163758 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Tambet, Heleene |
| Abstract: | Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics. |
| Keywords: | climate change; land management; gender; social protection; sustainable land management; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168513 |
| By: | Trachtman, Carly; Kramer, Berber; do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy |
| Abstract: | Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research. |
| Keywords: | agricultural research for development; plant breeding; experimental design; market research |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169025 |
| By: | Burger, Maximilian Nicolaus; Nilgen, Marco; Vollan, Björn |
| Abstract: | Citizens’ Juries (CJs) are increasingly implemented as a means to engage citizens in deliberation on complex policy challenges, yet their effectiveness can be undermined by cognitive biases and limited value-driven reasoning. This study evaluates the impact of bias alleviation and value activation exercises on deliberative quality and civic engagement in four CJs conducted in Bogotá, Colombia. Two juries incorporated these exercises as treatment interventions, and two served as controls with extended deliberation time. Results reveal that deliberation itself modestly reduced confirmation bias compared to non-participants, while the structured interventions enhanced participants’ awareness of biases and value-based reasoning. However, the interventions did not significantly reduce the occurrence of biases and led to a perceived trade-off with deliberation time. Participation in CJs also showed improved trust in science and political self-efficacy, demonstrating their potential to foster civic engagement. These findings highlight the nuanced benefits and limitations of integrating debiasing interventions into mini-publics to enhance deliberative quality and equity in policymaking. |
| Keywords: | democracy; environmental economics; food systems; participatory research; public participation; sustainability; Colombia; Americas; South America |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169372 |
| By: | Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Yimam, Seid; Arega, Tiruwork; Alemu, Tekie; Gonfa, Kidist H.; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of irrigation schemes, the study documents the physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures of irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s most intensively used river basin, the Awash. The findings show that about 20 percent of the equipped area of irrigation schemes in the basin is not being irrigated, while the number of actual beneficiaries on average exceeds the number of planned beneficiaries. The results also show significant knowledge gaps among irrigation scheme managers, extension agents, and leaders of water users’ associations (WUAs): 96 percent of them do not know the total water withdrawals or the irrigation water requirement per season. About 14 percent of the surveyed irrigation schemes have neither traditional water committees nor WUAs, and only 21 percent are organized in legally registered WUAs despite a substantial number of identified benefits of these organizations. Moreover, only 58 out of 489 irrigation schemes have women committee members. Many schemes lack a clear strategy for covering maintenance costs: almost 40 percent of schemes collect contributions from members only when the system fails, while 17 percent report no contributions for maintenance at all suggesting considerable risk of system deterioration and failure. The results challenge some of the assumptions about irrigation infrastructure in Ethiopia and confirm and quantify other assumptions in the literature. |
| Keywords: | irrigation schemes; infrastructure; Awash River; river basins; advisory officers; water user associations; women; Ethiopia; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:158200 |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Nataliia, Kussul; Lemoine, Guido; Shelestov, Andrii; Shumilo, Leonid |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether satellite imagery can be used to derive a measure to estimate conflict-induced damage to agricultural production and compare the results to those obtained using media-based conflict indicators, which are widely used in the literature. The paper combines area for summer and winter crops from annual crop maps for 2019–24 with measures of conflict-related damage to agricultural land based on optical and thermal satellite sensors. These data are used to estimate a difference-in-differences model for close to 10, 000 Ukrainian village councils. The results point to large and persistent negative effects that spill over to conflict-unaffected village councils. The predicted impact is three times larger, with a distinctly different distribution across key domains (for example, territory controlled by Ukraine and the Russian Federation) using the preferred image-based indicator as compared to a media-based indicator. Satellite imagery thus allows defining conflict incidence in ways that may be relevant to agricultural production and that may have implications for future research. |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11221 |
| By: | Ulimwengu, John M. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition security; policy innovation; shock; resilience |
| Date: | 2024–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:163039 |
| By: | Seymour, Greg; Cole, Steven M.; Costenbader, Elizabeth; Mwakanyamale, Devis; Adeyeye, Olajumoke; Feleke, Shiferaw; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | Increasingly, gender transformative approaches (GTAs), which seek to transform the underlying causes of gender inequalities, including discriminatory gender norms, are being used in agrifood systems (AFS) interventions. A growing body of evidence finds that GTAs contribute to positive impacts on a wide range of important development outcomes and have potential for improving gender equality. One limitation to better understanding changes in AFS-based gender norms as a result of GTAs is a lack of appropriate quantitative tools for measuring these norms. This work is an important step in filling that gap. Herein we detail the collaborative process that we undertook in Nigeria and Tanzania to develop a quantitative approach to measuring gender norms in the cassava, poultry, and fisheries value chains in each country. We then provide guidance for how implementing and research partners using GTAs in AFS can apply our learnings to their own work. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; gender norms; gender inequality; value chains; gender; Nigeria; Tanzania; Africa; Eastern Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152444 |
| By: | Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and ma-chine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings sug-gest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including production volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors. |
| Keywords: | shock; economic shock; computable general equilibrium models; agriculture; market prices; poverty; nutrition; crop yield; machine learning; climate; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ewracb:168174 |
| By: | Esther Devilliers (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Niklas Möhring (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Robert Finger (Agricultural economics and policy - ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]) |
| Abstract: | Low-input production systems aim at mitigating agriculture's environmental impact with a lower level of chemical inputs. However, comparing the performance of low-input systems to conventional ones, particularly in terms of productivity and yield, is challenging due to selection bias. First, we often lack observational data on low-input systems. Then, when available, the comparison between the two production systems is challenging due to potential endogeneity in input use and selection bias. To effectively develop policies promoting the adoption of low-input systems and assess their impact, for example, on pesticide use and yields, it is crucial to employ an econometric framework that addresses these issues. This article proposes an endogenous switching approach combined with control functions to tackle selection bias and input endogeneity simultaneously. Using unbalanced panel data on Swiss wheat production, which includes both low-input and conventional systems, our framework allows us to analyze the differentiated role of inputs as well as their price elasticity for both conventional and low-input farming systems. |
| Keywords: | Control Function, Endogenous Switching Regression, Pesticide Use, Low-input Production Systems |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04157545 |
| By: | Mockshell, Jonathan; Asante-Addo, Collins; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Ritter, Thea; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S. |
| Abstract: | This process evaluation (PE) is part of a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) of the use of a new pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria, a project led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). While the IE draws from a representative sample of 1, 399 farmers to determine the causal impacts of the use of PBR cowpea, the PE complements the IE by exploring in detail the potential adoption of the PBR cowpea variety and the reasons for adoption or non adoption, including its potential impacts on actors throughout the value chain. A program impact pathway (PIP) is the basis of this PE. The PIP identifies how impacts emerge from program inputs, processes, outputs, and outcomes to highlight barriers and facilitators of adoption. Given that this PE was conducted before the rollout of PBR cowpea in the IE, the analysis focuses on the potential of this innovative seed to achieve positive outputs and outcomes based on the PIP. Qualitative data were gathered from eight focus group discussions with farmers and 180 semi-structured interviews conducted with farmers, extension agents, seed dealers, and cowpea traders from eight local government areas (LGAs) in the states of Adamawa and Kwara. Given that the data are qualitative, the data are not representative. However, important insights were found that can help guide the IE. |
| Keywords: | impact assessment; cowpeas; farmers; agriculture; value chains; stakeholders; Nigeria; Western Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:nsspwp:145073 |
| By: | Bleck, Jaimie; Carrillo, Lucia; Gottlieb, Jessica; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Soumano, Moumouni |
| Abstract: | We surveyed 2, 919 community leaders across seven regions of Mali to provide insights on the prevalence and severity of shocks and crises across localities; which types of shocks and crises are most difficult from which to recover; the formal and informal ways in which local actors are involved in aid distribution systems; and the types of programming local actors view as most beneficial for promoting resilience. Despite increasing prevalence of conflict across localities, leaders predominately cited climate-related shocks as the most difficult from which to recover— especially droughts. We find that localities vary in the inclusiveness of local governance around aid distribution: while elected mayors are almost always involved, traditional leaders, women’s group and youth leaders in villages, civil servants, and civil society leaders are each involved in 40–60% of localities. We used both a budget allocation exercise and an experimental game in which we introduced the concept of anticipatory action (AA) programming—aid that is “triggered” by an early warning signal to arrive before a shock and mitigate its worst effects—to probe preferences over aid modality. We found that leaders see value in balancing investment across resilience programming (including AA) and humanitarian response, especially food aid. However, there is some important variation between village- and commune-level officials: village-level leaders are more likely to prioritize aid modalities that target households directly, like food aid and cash transfers, while commune-level leaders are more likely to prioritize risk prevention trainings. Our findings have important policy implications for promoting local resilience in Mali, including the importance of investing more in drought resilience, engaging actors at different levels of local governance who have different information and perspectives, and simultaneously investing in capacity-building around early warning system accuracy and dissemination. |
| Keywords: | governance; climate; conflicts; resilience; Mali; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152260 |
| By: | Rubin, Deborah |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on approaches for strengthening women’s empowerment that were implemented by project partners involved in the International Food Policy Research (IFPRI)-led Applying New Evidence for Women’s Empowerment (ANEW) project funded by the Walmart Foundation. The study explores the partner organizations’ websites and publications, project materials, and selected staff interviews to better understand how each envisions women’s empowerment and the pathways for supporting it. The four implementing project partners are Grameen Foundation, Professional Assistance for Development Action (PRADAN) in India, Root Capital in Mexico, and TechnoServe in Guatemala. Their programs and their organizational approaches vary in whether they primarily focus on women rather than more broadly targeting both women and men and their gender relationships. Some organizations are more “organic” in integrating attention to gender and empowerment into their programs, designing and implementing an approach on a case by case basis. Others are more intentional in establishing organization-wide policies, strategies, and monitoring systems. The organizations also differ in their positions on supporting “economic empowerment” and clear economic benefits such as prioritizing increased income or assets in contrast to those that also seek to actively change social norms and achieve other social dimensions of empowerment that encompass behaviors around decision-making, mobility, and self-confidence. Another variation is in the organizations’ attention to enterprise development and, consequently to entrepreneurship and upgrading, and what aspects of women's empowerment are most critical for achieving those goals. This paper offers implementers and their funders insight into organizational differences in approaches to women’s empowerment. The review demonstrates that both funders and implementers continue to focus on strengthening women’s economic empowerment by increasing women’s incomes and assets, often with good results. However, they often lack clear theories of change or explicit strategies to strengthen other dimensions of women’s empowerment. More nuanced, evidence-based theories of change and targeted actions could strengthen program design to expand and support women’s achievement of empowerment across all its dimensions. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; gender; policies; women; women’s empowerment |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:155195 |
| By: | Kumar, Kishore G.; Kumar, Shalander; Rao, K.P.C.; Patil, Mukund; Jat, M.L. |
| Abstract: | Following the successful demonstration of the iSAT system's ability to generate data-driven, science-based weather advisories, efforts were undertaken to scale the system and improve its capabilities. The focus was on four key areas; expanded crop coverage to cover a wider range of crops, flexible information access to accommodate local information and user preferences, targeted and timely advisories tailored to specific crop growth stages and delivered at the right time and multilingual and multi-format advisories (SMS, mobile app, WhatsApp, website) to reach a diverse audience. To achieve these goals, the ISAT system was modified in several ways. Location-specific information was incorporated through lookup tables, mobile apps, and direct input, the decision-making process was refined to generate advisories that align with farmers' specific needs, advisories were produced in two formats: SMS-friendly and detailed versions for mobile apps, WhatsApp, and websites and options were added to translate advisories into local languages. The challenges and limitations in realising the full potential of context-specific advisories include availability of reliable and consistent data, tailoring advisories to specific conditions that requires further refinement and adaptation, effective delivery through various mobile devices and platforms, government policies on bulk SMS and data privacy, language barriers requiring translation and localization for reaching a wider audience and user awareness and capacity to utilize them information effectively. By addressing these challenges, the ISAT system can continue to evolve and provide even more valuable and impactful services to farmers and agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | digital innovation; Information and Communication Technologies; crop management; advisory services |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:162942 |
| By: | Ioannis Chalkiadakis (ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - Institut Curie [Paris] - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gareth W Peters (UC Santa Barbara - University of California [Santa Barbara] - UC - University of California); Guillaume Bagnarosa (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Alexandre Gohin (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Novel empirical evidence is studied for the way the agricultural commodities futures markets process information. The significant effect of institutional announcements, such as those of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), on the participants in such markets has been well documented in the literature. However, existing studies consider measures of market ‘surprise' or analysts' ‘sentiment' that do not stem directly from unstructured text in official reports or public news. In this work, we aim to verify the structural changes incurred in the corn and wheat markets by the release of the USDA reports while considering higher-order structural information of several market-related processes. Furthermore, we investigate whether there is evidence for statistical causality relationships between the market reaction, in terms of price, volume and volatility, and market participants' sentiment induced by public news. To address these goals we rely on a recently published efficient algorithm for statistical causality analysis in multivariate time-series based on Gaussian Processes [Zaremba, A.B. and Peters, G.W., Statistical causality for multivariate nonlinear time series via Gaussian process models. Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab., 2022, 1–46. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11009-022-09928-3.]. Market and public news text signals are jointly modeled as a Gaussian Process, whose properties we leverage to study linear and non-linear causal effects between the different time-series signals. The participants' sentiment is extracted from public news data via methods developed in the area of statistical machine learning known as Natural Language Processing (NLP). A novel framework for text-to-time-series embedding is employed [Chalkiadakis, I., Zaremba, A., Peters, G.W. and Chantler, M.J., On-chain analytics for sentiment-driven statistical causality in cryptocurrencies. Blockchain: Res Appl., 2022, 3(2), 100063. Available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096720922000033.] to construct a sentiment index from publicly available news articles. The conducted studies offer a more comprehensive perspective of the information that is available to investors and how that is incorporated into the agricultural commodities market |
| Keywords: | Text-as-data, Time-series, Agricultural commodities, Natural language processing, Multiple-Output Gaussian process, Statistical causality |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05280276 |
| By: | Mockshell, Jonathan; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Asante-Addo, Collins; Ritter, Thea; Zambrano, Patricia; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S. |
| Abstract: | Policymakers are increasingly considering the promise of modern biotechnology, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to help solve development problems in health, agriculture, and other fields (Zambrano et al., 2022). However, debates persist around health and environmental implications (National Academies of Sciences, 2016; Raman, 2017; Smyth et al., 2021). The regulation of GMOs varies globally, with some countries implementing outright bans or imposing stringent controls (Sarkar et al., 2021; Yali, 2022). A recent study examines the Nigerian policy environment for Pod Borer Resistant (PBR) cowpea, which has been genetically engineered to resist the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) [Mockshell et al., (unpublished)]. Legume pod borers significantly reduce cowpea yield and quality, with losses of up to 80% reported (Andam et al., 2024; Mockshell et al., 2024). This policy note summarizes the findings of the paper, providing insights to guide policy development around the adoption of biotech food crops in Nigeria and other countries in Africa South of the Sahara (SSA). The primary research question is: Is there an enabling policy environment for PBR cowpea and what factors contribute to it? |
| Keywords: | policies; biotechnology; health; agriculture; genetically modified organisms; cowpeas; boring organisms; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:nssppn:163386 |
| By: | Kalmey, Tim; Meya, Jasper; Sager, Lutz |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between household incomes and the biodiversity footprints of consumption in the United States from 1996 to 2022. Combining detailed household expenditure surveys with environmentally-extended multi-regional input-output accounting methods, we calculate consumption-based (i) land-use and (ii) species-loss footprints as proxies for overall biodiversity pressure. We find thatthe average biodiversity footprints of US households declined between 1996 and the early 2010s but began increasing again thereafter, as rising consumption pressure outpaced technological improvements. To characterize the relationship between household income and biodiversity footprints, we construct Environmental Engel Curves (EECs). Just like aggregate footprints, EECs shifted downwards until the early 2010s but have moved upwards in recent years, mainly due to a more biodiversity-intensive composition of expenditures, as we show. Moreover, EECs for land use are concave, implying a "biodiversity-equality trade-off" of moderate size. In 2022, full redistribution to achieve perfect income equality would have raised aggregate land use by 3.2% all else equal, calling for additional efforts to maintain a given biodiversity conservation goal. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity, Land-use, Consumption, Environmental Engel Curve, Footprint, Inequality, Trade |
| JEL: | D12 D31 H23 Q20 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327109 |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute; Hayoge, Glen; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Schmidt, Emily |
| Abstract: | This bulletin provides an overview of select food prices during the second quarter of 2024, from April to June. During this quarter, two rounds of data were collected per month across all markets, except for Goroka in April and Lae in May, where only one round of data was collected. The prices presented here are the monthly averages. The graphs in this bulletin show price changes within the second quarter and compare second quarter prices with the first quarter of 2024, between January and March. To access the complete food price dataset, please download it from our website. |
| Keywords: | legumes; markets; food prices; sweet potatoes; staple foods; Papua New Guinea; Melanesia |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfpb:149268 |
| By: | Philippine Coeugnet (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel, GABI - Génétique Animale et Biologie Intégrative - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julie Duval (Territoires - Territoires - AgroParisTech - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Gwenaël Vourc'H; Julie Labatut (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel, GABI - Génétique Animale et Biologie Intégrative - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Participatory approaches involving not only farmers but also citizens in the design of desirable futures in agriculture are developing, but remain quite limited and little studied in the field of livestock farming where the crisis of confidence with society is growing. Citizens are often only consulted to identify their perception or to promote the acceptability of innovations. Our article proposes to broaden the way in which the role of citizens in the design processes of future livestock systems can be envisaged, by proposing an analytical framework to characterize the learning dynamics generated during the participation of citizens in an intermediation system in this sector. Based on the analysis of exchanges between participants during the workshop and qualitative surveys conducted a posteriori, we highlight that the participation of citizens within this system has generated (i) the recognition and exchange of different types of knowledge as well as (ii) the integration of values which led to (iii) a reframing of the issues and the formulation of new problems, and (iv) changes in perception, posture and practices, questioning the future of research on livestock farming systems. |
| Abstract: | Les approches participatives incluant non seulement des agriculteurs, mais également des citoyens dans la conception de futurs désirables en agriculture se développent, mais restent assez limitées et peu étudiées dans le domaine de l'élevage où la crise de confiance avec la société est croissante. Notre article propose d'élargir la façon dont le rôle des citoyens dans les processus de conception de futurs systèmes d'élevage peut être envisagé, en proposant un cadre d'analyse permettant de caractériser les dynamiques d'apprentissages engendrées lors de la participation de citoyens au sein d'un dispositif d'intermédiation dans ce secteur. À partir de l'analyse d'un dispositif d'intermédiation dans le Massif central, nous mettons en évidence que la participation de citoyens a engendré (i) une prise en compte et un croisement de différents types de connaissances ainsi qu'(ii) une intégration des valeurs ce qui a amené à (iii) un recadrage des enjeux et à la formulation de nouvelles problématiques, et (iv) à des changements de perception, de posture et de pratiques, questionnant l'avenir de la recherche sur les systèmes d'élevage. |
| Keywords: | Co-design, Intermediation, animal sciences, Learning dynamics, Co-conception, Intermédiation, Sciences animales, Dynamiques d'apprentissage |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05279501 |
| By: | Mukashov, Askar; Warner, James; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | This study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic root and cereal yield volatility risks are the most important for GDP, poverty, and undernourishment outcomes, while external factors like world energy prices pose the most significant risks to high-income households’ consumption. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Rwandan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors. |
| Keywords: | risk assessment; climate; shock; economic shock; market prices; computable general equilibrium models; machine learning; agriculture; crop yield; Rwanda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ewracb:168183 |
| By: | Benito Arruñada; Marco Fabbri; Daniele Nosenzo; Giorgio Zanarone |
| Abstract: | We provide causal evidence on how a community’s formal institutions and social structure jointly affect the value of its land to outside investors. Using field research and a lab-in-thefield experiment in rural Benin, we show that potential urban investors perceive a higher risk of expropriatory collusion among villagers—and thus invest less—when villages lack formal land records and exhibit strong social tightness. We also find that, although formalizing land rights increases the confidence of outsiders, it does not eliminate their concerns about collusion: outsiders remain wary of investing in villages with a tight social structure even with formal property rights, indicating that local collusion continues to pose a barrier to developing impersonal property markets. Our findings therefore suggest that in addition to facilitating intra-community investment and trade (e.g., by formalizing land ownership), well-designed property institutions should also guarantee the impartial treatment of outsiders. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2025-11 |
| By: | Torsten Ehlers; Jon Frost; Carlos Madeira; Ilhyock Shim |
| Abstract: | Whether and how extreme weather shocks transmit to economic activity and, in turn, inflation is key for monetary policy. We look at the macroeconomic effects of different types of weather disaster for up to 151 countries over 2000-24. We study their macro-level and sectoral effects on GDP growth and on relevant sub-components of inflation. Using local projections, we find that the negative effects on GDP can be quite sizable and long-lived: -2%, -1% and -0.4% after the average-size droughts, landslides and wildfires, respectively, over four years. At the sectoral level, we find that agriculture-forestry-fishing and mining-construction-water-energy are negatively affected by several types of weather disaster. Most types of weather disaster have relatively small and short-lived effects on inflation, but with larger and more persistent increases in food prices than in the other components of CPI. Fiscal space and insurance can reduce the negative impact of natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | climate change, GDP growth, inflation, natural disasters, sectoral production |
| JEL: | E31 E32 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1292 |
| By: | Gumma, Murali K.; Panjala, Pranay; Choudhary, Karan; Dubey, Sunil K.; Bellam, Pavan Kumar; Murthy, C. S.; Mohammed, Ismail; Mohammed, Irshad |
| Abstract: | This technical report discusses the application of geospatial analysis for real-time crop monitoring, focusing on the crop distribution in the study districts of Uttar Pradesh—Lakshmipur Kheri, Sitapur, and Shahjahanpur—for the Rabi 2023-24 season. The study employs Sentinel-2 time series satellite data in conjunction with ground data collection to effectively classify and map crops, highlighting the predominant crops in each district. Furthermore, the utilization of this data for various stakeholders is explored to enhance decision-making processes in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | digital innovation; spatial data; crop modelling; remote sensing; crop monitoring; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:162550 |
| By: | Stefano Giglio; Theresa Kuchler; Johannes Stroebel; Olivier Wang |
| Abstract: | We outline a research agenda to better understand the economic and financial consequences of nature and biodiversity loss. Our starting point is a simple model in which ecosystem services—such as pollination, water filtration, and carbon sequestration—enter economic production, and where nature degradation and climate change reinforce one another through a “Twin-Crises Multiplier.” We then extend this framework to allow for heterogeneity across firms, industries, and geographies in how they depend on, and in turn affect, nature. This broader perspective provides a foundation for empirical analyses of how biodiversity loss influences aggregate output, firm productivity, and financial risk. We conclude by identifying opportunities for asset pricing and corporate finance research to systematically incorporate nature and biodiversity into financial economics. |
| JEL: | G0 G12 Q30 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34286 |
| By: | Chisoro, Shingie |
| Abstract: | South Africa's citrus and wine industries have achieved relative success in global markets to become the country's leading agri-food exports. However, the two industries have realised relatively different upgrading trajectories in global value chains (GVCs). The citrus industry quickly grew its export earnings to become the world's second largest citrus exporter, while the wine industry has been slipping the global ranks to become the world's thirteenth largest wine exporter from seventh place, with declining export earnings since 2010. The role played by industry associations in the export performance of each industry has been central. However, the roles of co-ordination and collective private governance for long-term industry growth, together with engagement with public governance, are not widely understood. Drawing on literature on upgrading in GVCs and collective organisation, this paper analyses the export performance of the two industries through critically reflecting on the key decisions and activities of the respective industry associations to tackle challenges for upgrading in export markets, highlighting the key factors underlying the differences in performance. We consider the composition and interests of member firms, access to and use of organisational resources, investments in collective industry goods and services, and the relationship with the government. We find that citrus and wine both have similar conditions regarding access to resources through industry levies, and the observed differences in export performance boil down to the activities and initiatives that the industries used the resources to invest in, and how they implemented the activities and initiatives, rather than the quantity of levies. It appears that the success of the citrus industry largely stems from the historical decisions of the organisation to invest in collective long-term research and technical capabilities directly creating dynamic efficiencies for producers and upgrading in the product mix. The study has important policy implications for African producers seeking to enter and to participate in agrifood GVCs. Coalitions to generate collective solutions and support long-term investments for African producers in GVCs are more crucial than ever in terms of building capabilities when stakeholders pull together, and industry bodies do not simply lobby for the short-term interests of their most powerful members. |
| Keywords: | citrus, wine, upgrading, exports, collective organisation, industry associations |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sgscdp:327116 |