|
on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Ibrahim Musa, Mohammed |
| Abstract: | Sudan faces deep challenges of the interrelation between food security, climate change, and the impact of the 15th April 2023 war in Sudan. This study investigates the complex relationships among these factors using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over two periods: 1961–2022 and 1961–2024, capturing pre- and post-conflict dynamics. Key variables analyzed include cereal production, population growth, annual mean precipitation, average temperature, and 15th April 2023 war-induced displacement. The results reveal significant long-run equilibrium relationships among these variables, highlighting the severe impacts of climate change and conflict on agricultural productivity and food security. Findings demonstrate that a 1% increase in cereal production land correlates with a 1.18% rise in food security before the war, but this effect diminishes post-conflict due to displacement and land loss. Population growth, while a positive contributor in stable periods, becomes non-significant under conflict conditions. Climatic variables show substantial influence, with altered precipitation patterns and rising temperatures exacerbating food insecurity. The study concludes that food security in Sudan is deeply intertwined with its social, political and environmental context. Policy recommendations include promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices, rebuilding agricultural infrastructure, and adopting integrated strategies to address the combined impacts of climate change and conflict on food security. |
| Keywords: | ARDL model, Climate Change, Food security, 15th April War in Sudan |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125570 |
| By: | Ishita Varma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; Institute of Economic Growth) |
| Abstract: | India's indigenous communities (Schedule Tribes or STs) have historically relied on forests for their subsistence, livelihood and cultural identity. Despite this, the STs lacked formal rights to reside in forests and use forest resources under governmental control. In 2008, the Forest Rights Act (FRA) was implemented which granted these STs access to forest land and non-timber forest products (NTFPs). This paper examines the impact of FRA on the dietary diversity of STs. We evaluate this objective by making use of four rounds of a large-scale consumer expenditure survey and use variation in forest cover as a proxy for the potential of the Act to employ a generalised difference-in-differences strategy. We find that post-FRA, dietary diversity of ST households increased in areas with greater forest cover. This increased dietary diversity is driven by an increase in the diversity of vegetables, fruits, and oils consumed. In addition, we find that the sources of food shifted from subsistence-based collection and cultivation to market purchases. Suggestive evidence points to an occupational shift toward non-agricultural employments, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, potentially facilitated by improved NTFP access. |
| Keywords: | FRA, Dietary Diversity, Indigenous Communities, Forest Dwellers, Land Tenure |
| JEL: | J15 O15 Q15 Q23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-012 |
| By: | Dan Li; Vassili Kitsios; David Newth; Terence John O'Kane |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By informing on regional agricultural impacts, this approach addresses broader risks to global food security. Extending an established multivariate econometric crop-yield model to incorporate country-specific error variances, the framework systematically relaxes restrictive homogeneity assumptions and enables transparent decomposition of predictive uncertainty into contributions from climate models, emission scenarios, and crop model parameters. In both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses focused on global wheat production, the results demonstrate significant improvements in calibration and probabilistic accuracy of yield projections. These advances provide policymakers and stakeholders with detailed, risk-sensitive information to support the development of more resilient and adaptive agricultural and climate strategies in response to escalating climate-related risks. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.21559 |
| By: | Özdogan, Mutlu; Wang, Sherrie; Ghose, Devaki; Fraga, Eduardo; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; Varela, Gonzalo J. |
| Abstract: | Rice is a staple crop for over half the world’s population, and accurate, timely information on its planted area and production is crucial for food security and agricultural policy, particularly in developing nations like Sri Lanka. However, reliable rice monitoring in regions like Sri Lanka faces significant challenges due to frequent cloud cover and the fragmented nature of small-holder farms. This research introduces a novel, cost-effective method for mapping rice planted area and yield at field scales in Sri Lanka using optical satellite data. The rice planted fields were identified and mapped using a phenologically-tuned image classification algorithm that high-lights rice presence by observing water occurrence during transplanting and vegetation activity during subsequent crop growth. To estimate yields, a random forest regression model was trained at the district level by incorporating a satellite-derived chlorophyll index and environmental variables and subsequently applied at the field level. The approach has enabled the creation of two decades (2000–2022) of reliable, field-scale rice area and yield estimates, achieving map accuracies between 70% and over 90% and yield estimations with less than 20% RMSE. These highly granular results, which were previously unattainable through traditional surveys, show strong correlation with government statistics. They also demonstrate the ad-vantages of a rule-based, phenology-driven classification over purely statistical machine learning models for long-term consistency in dynamic agricultural environments. This work highlights the significant potential of remote sensing to provide accurate and detailed insights into rice cultivation, supporting policy decisions and enhancing food security in Sri Lanka and other cloud-prone regions. |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11194 |
| By: | Jérémy Lavarenne (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Michel Vaksmann (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); François Affholder (UPR AIDA - Agroécologie et intensification durables des cultures annuelles - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Marie Ferré (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Karine Nunes (Centre de recherche sur les circulations, les liens et les échanges - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, ECODEVELOPPEMENT - Ecodéveloppement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Parc Naturel Régional des Monts d’Ardèche); Michael Dingkuhn (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Fernando Antonio Macena da Silva (Embrapa - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - MAPA - Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento [Brasil] - Governo do Brasil); Agali Alhassane (CRA - Centre Régional AGRHYMET); Seydou Traoré (CRA - Centre Régional AGRHYMET); Benjamin Sultan (UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - UNC - Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie - UG - Université de Guyane - UA - Université des Antilles - UM - Université de Montpellier); Vincent Bonnal (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Mathieu Castets (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Alain Clopes (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Philippe Reitz (LIRMM - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Robotique et de Microélectronique de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier); Henri Songoti (CRA - Centre Régional AGRHYMET); Francis Forest (Retraité, UPR 1 Couverts permanents - Systèmes de semis direct sous couverture végétale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Christian Baron (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | The SARRA (Regional Analysis System for Agroclimatic Risks) model family has been under development by the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD) since the 1970s. Used in intertropical regions, the early versions of the model were designed to assess the impact of water stress—that is, the lack of accessible water for crops—on production and seedling losses. Their objectives were to improve risk estimation, optimize sowing management, and serve as a regional-scale early warning system for food security. Since the 2000s, the model has been increasingly used to analyze the impacts of climate change on agroclimatic risks. Several developments have enabled the integration of, on the one hand, the genetic characteristics of crops, and on the other hand, a better consideration of spatio-temporal dynamics, particularly through the use of remote sensing. Additionally, SARRA has gradually evolved from a descriptive model into a scenario-based anticipation tool, requiring structural transformations and the adoption of modern programming and versioning techniques to ensure traceability and reproducibility of simulations. Recognized for their simplicity, parsimony, and robustness, these models have proven effective for monitoring agricultural seasons, managing food security, and supporting decision-making in the face of climate risks. This article provides a retrospective analysis of their development, highlighting major innovations and their potential to guide resilient agricultural practices in response to current climate challenges. |
| Abstract: | La famille de modèles SARRA (Système d'Analyse Régional des Risques Agroclimatiques) est développée par le CIRAD depuis les années 1970. Utilisées dans les régions intertropicales, les premières versions du modèle permettaient d'évaluer l'impact des stress hydriques, c'est-à-dire le manque d'eau accessible par la culture, sur sa production ainsi que les pertes de semis. Elles avaient pour objectif d'améliorer l'estimation des risques, la gestion des semis et de servir de système d'alerte à l'échelle régionale pour la sécurité alimentaire. À partir des années 2000, le modèle a été sollicité pour analyser les effets du changement climatique sur les risques agroclimatiques. Plusieurs évolutions ont permis d'intégrer, d'une part, les caractéristiques génétiques des plantes et, d'autre part, une meilleure prise en compte des dynamiques spatio-temporelles, notamment par le biais de la télédétection. Par ailleurs, SARRA a progressivement évolué d'un modèle descriptif vers un outil d'anticipation et de simulation de scénarios, nécessitant des transformations structurelles et l'adoption de techniques modernes de programmation et de versioning afin d'assurer la traçabilité et la reproductibilité des simulations.Reconnus pour leur simplicité, parcimonie et robustesse, ces modèles se sont avérés efficaces pour le suivi des campagnes agricoles, la gestion de la sécurité alimentaire et la prise de décision face aux risques climatiques. Cet article propose une rétrospective de leur développement et met en lumière les innovations majeures ainsi que leur potentiel pour guider des pratiques agricoles résilientes face aux défis climatiques actuels. |
| Keywords: | crop modeling, rainfed farming, food security, climate change adaptation, agroclimatic zones, zones agroclimatiques, adaptation au changement climatique, sécurité alimentaire, agriculture pluviale, modélisation des cultures |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05046043 |
| By: | Varypaiev, Olexii |
| Abstract: | This article examines the transformation of food culture in Ukraine during the full-scale Russian Ukrainian war (2022 to 2025), interpreting nutrition as a key element of cultural resistance, symbolic survival, and national identity. Based on empirical observations, historical analysis, and interdisciplinary methodology, the study explores how traditional Ukrainian food practices, especially the preparation and collective consumption of dishes such as borshch, varenyky, and salo, function as both a response to material deprivation and a reaffirmation of national belonging. The article highlights the role of wartime kitchens, food volunteering, refugee adaptation, and everyday cooking as domains where meaning is produced and cultural memory is maintained under extreme conditions. Particular attention is given to the symbolic and sensory dimensions of food, where taste and smell evoke collective memory and serve as anchors of psychological resilience in displaced and traumatized communities. The article also explores how the wartime experience reshapes the perception of everyday meals, turning them into rituals of continuity and defiance. Furthermore, it addresses the environmental and ethical challenges faced by food systems during the war, including the degradation and contamination of agricultural soils caused by shelling, chemical exposure, and the destruction of ecosystems. This aspect, often overlooked in philosophical or cultural discourse, reveals the deep entanglement between nutrition, ecology, and conflict. By analyzing food through the lens of philosophical anthropology, memory studies, and the sociology of everyday life, the article proposes that nutrition during wartime transcends physical survival and becomes a political, existential, and ethical phenomenon. It concludes that in the Ukrainian context, food practices offer not only nourishment but also resistance, healing, and the continuity of national identity through embodied and affective experience. |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9xhkw_v1 |
| By: | Xinyu Li |
| Abstract: | In 2025, intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Oxnard, California, disrupted the state's \$49 billion agricultural industry, a critical supplier of 75% of U.S. fruits and nuts and one-third of its vegetables. This paper quantifies the economic consequences of these raids on labor markets, crop production, and food prices using econometric modeling. We estimate a 20-40% reduction in the agricultural workforce, leading to \$3-7 billion in crop losses and a 5-12% increase in produce prices. The analysis draws on USDA Economic Research Service data and recent ICE detention figures, which show arrests in Southern California rising from 699 in May to nearly 2, 000 in June 2025. The raids disproportionately affect labor-intensive crops like strawberries, exacerbating supply chain disruptions. Policy recommendations include expanding the H-2A visa program and legalizing undocumented workers to stabilize the sector. This study contributes to agricultural economics by providing a data-driven assessment of immigration enforcement's economic toll. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.03787 |
| By: | Stern, Jonathan |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susphd:0225 |
| By: | Andrianady, Josué R. |
| Abstract: | This study tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in Madagascar using time-series data from 1990 to 2015. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests, we analyze the nexus between CO$_2$ emissions, economic growth, agricultural production, and trade openness. Results confirm a U-shaped EKC, with economic growth initially reducing emissions before increasing at higher income levels. Trade openness marginally reduces emissions, while agricultural production has no significant impact. Granger causality tests indicate that economic growth drives emissions. Policy recommendations include promoting trade in environmentally friendly goods and investing in clean energy to mitigate emissions. |
| Keywords: | EKC Hypothesis, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth, ARDL, Granger Causality, Madagascar |
| JEL: | A1 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125625 |
| By: | Britos, Braulio; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Trupkin, Danilo R. |
| Abstract: | International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data. Our model identifies two key channels through which agricultural distortions affect migration and productivity: a first channel where distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity, and a second channel where distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration. |
| Keywords: | Agricultura, Migración, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2502 |
| By: | Gardiner, Hannah; Pettinger, Clare; Haslam-Lucas, Amanda; Diouri, Barbara; Ruminska, Joanna; Dunn, Laura; Ashton, Yve; Hunt, Louise; Hickson1, Mary |
| Abstract: | For complex challenges like food systems transformation, some scholars suggest co-production involving multiple actors including citizens is essential. Additionally, some argue the desirability of moving towards ‘food democracy’, aligning with participatory approaches gaining popularity more broadly. Urban food policy initiatives are examples of innovation in food democracy and food citizenship, but questions around delivery of participation and engagement remain. For example, delivering authentic participation is an ongoing challenge and the impacts on those engaged have rarely been studied. Furthermore, personal transformations are essential for collective action on urban food system transformation and similarly receive minimal focus. The need for development in these areas is reflected in the Milan Urban Food Policy Pact (MUFPP) goals including enhancing stakeholder participation (action 2) and enhancing food knowledge and action through participatory education, training and research (action 19). We report the experiences of 12 individuals engaged as community food researchers (CFRs) within transdisciplinary food system research in UK urban settings (FoodSEqual). Creative methods were used, including participatory mapping, collage, and poetic inquiry; alongside utilising assemblage theory concepts. We found CFRs developed relationships within and beyond their communities, expanded their food system knowledge and hope for change, and gained advocacy-related skills and beliefs. Our unique contribution demonstrates how personal outcomes from engagement in participatory research could support urban food systems transformation by creating conditions and capacities for active food citizenship and food democracy alongside personal transformations. This also suggests the CFR model could contribute to delivery of MUFPP goals, particularly actions 2 and 19 (described above). |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:skr48_v1 |
| By: | Kym Anderson |
| Abstract: | China was one of the world’s most important areas of growth in wine demand in the 2010s, accounting for 7% of the world’s wine consumption and 8% of its value of wine imports by 2017. But China’s per capita wine consumption peaked in the mid-2010s, and its wine imports have more than halved since then. As well, the sources of China’s imports of wine have fluctuated considerably over the past two decades, making this a risky market for wine exporters. Certainly the COVID-19 disruption played a role, but between 2019 and 2022 the fall in sales was considerably larger for wine (47%) than for spirits (17%) and beer (9%), such that wine’s share of alcohol consumption in China fell by two-fifths over those three years alone. The article examines reasons behind the dramatic gyrations in this globally important market and their impact on wine-exporting countries and speculates on future trends. |
| JEL: | D12 F13 F14 Q17 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2025-08 |
| By: | Mohammadzadeh Asl, Nazi; Hataminia, Soheil |
| Abstract: | The relationship between poverty and the environment is multi-dimensional and complex, necessitating a detailed analysis, particularly at the regional level. This study evaluates and ranks Iran’s 30 provinces based on the poverty-environment nexus. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a composite index comprMiising energy consumption intensity, CO₂ emissions, water stress index, and desertified land area was developed for the year 2021. The first two principal components explained approximately 71% of the total variance. Results indicate a significant negative correlation between poverty and environmental degradation (r = -0.61). In this context, wealthier provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Khuzestan experience the highest environmental degradation, whereas poorer provinces encounter relatively less environmental pressure. The findings suggest that improved economic conditions in Iranian provinces have often been accompanied by reduced livability and heightened environmental degradation. Therefore, policymakers are advised to prioritize enhancing livability by integrating sustainable water resource management and desertification control into poverty alleviation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Welfare, Poverty, Inequality, Environment, Livability |
| JEL: | A12 A13 I3 I31 O10 O18 O21 O44 Q2 Q25 Q28 Q5 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125768 |
| By: | Assane Ka (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey); Sérigne Modou Sarr (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey); Alioune Badara Diop (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey); Aliousseyni Ly (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey); Pape Diène Faye (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey, Université Senghor [Alexandria]); Ousmane Cissé (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey); Mamadou Sy (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey); Daouda Ngom (UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]); Bernard Riéra (MECADEV - Mécanismes Adaptatifs et Evolution - MNHN - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The Sangomar Marine Protected Area (AMPS) plays an important socio-economic, ecological and cultural role. However, since its creation, little information exists on its total economic value, which is generally difficult for local people to perceive. This study is a contribution to the assessment of the economic value of the AMPS. To do this, surveys were carried out in three villages of Dionewar (Dionewar, Falia and Niodior) using focus groups for all types of ecosystem service with specific socio-professional categories, fisheries services and managers. The criteria measured concerned the identification of stakeholders, the population's perception of the services and their monetary value. The results show that the majority of stakeholders in the AMPS are fishermen (48%), carters (42%) and women who process fish and forest products (29%). A total of 19 ecosystem services were inventoried, and divided into 4 categories (provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services). The most important services in terms of scores were nursery (8.71), soil formation (8.43) and the water cycle (8.38). The total economic value of the AMPS was estimated at 2, 808, 323, 563 FCFA, with regulating services having the highest value (61.87%), followed by provisioning services (22.53%). These results should serve as a decision-making tool to raise awareness of the importance of the AMPS among the population and political decision-makers. |
| Keywords: | Ecosystem Services, Total Economic Value, Sangomar Marine Protected Area, Economic Valuation, Dionewar Municipality |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05197504 |
| By: | Lauro Nogueira (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPE/UERN - CCSAH/UFERSA); Fábio Lúcio Rodrigues (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPE/UERN); Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias Souza (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPGE-UFPB); Jevuks Matheus de Araújo (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPGE-UFPB) |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to investigate how water scarcity and periods of drought can affect firearm homicide rates in the Brazilian semi-arid region between 2002 and 2020. To this end, the methodology of inference in counterfactual distributions proposed by Chernozhukov, Fernández-Val and Melly (2013) was employed. The main findings indicate that periods of severe drought have a significant impact on homicide rates in the semi-arid region. These effects are more pronounced when associated with factors such as the presence of rural municipalities and the migration process. In other words, there is strong evidence that drought in the hinterlands/countryside contributes to the increase in crime rates in both urban and rural municipalities. Additionally, the decomposition of the results revealed that periods of extreme drought, coupled with other unfavorable factors, act as triggers for the increase in homicide rates in the Brazilian semi-arid region, significantly exacerbating conditions of vulnerability during these adverse climatic shocks. |
| Keywords: | Water Scarcity; Drought; Homicide Rate; Brazilian Semiarid. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:021486 |
| By: | Romero-Goyeneche Oscar Yandy; Ramirez Matias; Osorio-Garcia Ana Milena; Harman Canalle Ursula |
| Abstract: | This paper undertakes an analysis of deforestation in the Amazon area using a pathways-based approach to sustainability. We ground the analysis primarily in the sustainability transitions literature but also draw a bridge with socio-ecological concepts which helps us to understand the nature of transitions in this context. The concept of a deforestation system is developed by examining the interplay of infrastructure, technologies, narratives, and institutions. Drawing on a literature review and an in-depth case study of Puerto Maldonado in Madre de Dios, Peru, the paper identifies three pathways for addressing deforestation: optimisation, natural capital, and regenerative change. We suggest that while the optimisation pathway provides partial solutions through mitigation and compensation strategies, it often reinforces extractivist logics. The study also underscores the limitations of natural capital frameworks, which tend to rely on centralised governance and market-based instruments while lacking broader social engagement. In contrast, our findings emphasise the potential of regenerative strategies rooted in local agency, community-led experimentation, and context-sensitive institutional arrangements. The paper contributes to ongoing debates on biodiversity governance by illustrating how the spatial and long-term dynamics of deforestation interact, and why inclusive, territorially grounded pathways are crucial for bending the curve of biodiversity loss. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.06663 |
| By: | Sagebiel, Julian; Cavallaro, Nino; Quaas, Martin |
| Abstract: | Despite the urgent need to preserve natural capital, little is known about the direct benefits people receive from it. Reliable benefit estimates are required to incorporate the complex values of natural capital in national capital accounting, cost-benefit analyses, project appraisal, and international policy agreements. The study employs a spatial-explicit choice experiment approach, which estimates benefits people receive from changes in natural capital conditional on the current endowment in their places of residence. Studying changes in protected areas and high nature value farmland across Germany, we identify significant use and non-use values of natural capital stocks. We find that the marginal values of natural capital are conditional on the spatial endowment and on whether the type of natural capital is use or non-use related. We use our estimates together with geographic information system data to aggregate and map the distribution of the demand for protected areas and high nature value farmland across Germany. The results are easily transferable to other regions and contexts and allow trading off the benefits and costs of restoring natural capital and biodiversity. Our findings enrich the discussion on the loss of natural capital and biodiversity and can significantly contribute to broader policy discussions in the context of the interlinked climate and biodiversity crises. |
| Keywords: | Natural Capital Valuation; Discrete Choice Experiment; Biodiversity Values; Spatial Preference Heterogeneity; Benefit Transfer |
| JEL: | Q28 Q50 Q51 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125429 |
| By: | Didier Raboisson (UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UM - Université de Montpellier, ENVT - Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse); Guillaume Lhermie (UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UM - Université de Montpellier, ENVT - Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse, University of Calgary); Raphael Guatteo (BIOEPAR - Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | To support farmers in their decisions related to Q fever, a dedicated economic assessment tool is developed. The present work describes the calculator, its economic rationale, and the supporting assumptions. The calculator integrates a yearly compartmental model to represent population dynamism and the main interactions between disorders linked to Q fever, especially reproductive disorders (abortion, retained foetal membranes, purulent vaginal discharge and endometritis, extra services, and calving–conception delays). The effects of the nontangible cost of the disease on human health, the welfare of the animals, and the workload of farmers were not integrated into the model. The model shows high-level sensitivity to the prevalence of Q fever in the herd prevaccination and to the costs of abortion and extra days of calving–conception intervals. Breakeven points, i.e., cost values that allow us to achieve positive vaccination benefits, are also reported. For herds with moderate or high prevalence rates of Q fever prevaccination (>30%), a vaccination benefit is observed. The vaccine should be considered a type of insurance in herds with low prevalence rates of Q fever prevaccination (≤20%). The calculator was developed to aid decision-making at the farm level, and no conclusion can be extrapolated as a generic trend based on the present work. |
| Keywords: | Cost, Economics, Vaccine, Benefits, impact économique, France, bovin laitier, ferme laitière, Coxiella burnetii, dynamique des populations, fièvre Q, bien-être social, vaccin, évaluation de l'impact, vaccination, épidémiologie, système d'aide à la décision, endométrite |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04546084 |
| By: | Elmallakh, Nelly Youssef Louis William; Gatti, Roberta V.; Islam, Asif Mohammed; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam Mohamed Sayed |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the long-term impacts of early-life drought exposure on the human capital and socioeconomic outcomes of women born in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco across more than five decades. Using a pooled cross-section of 13 rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys, the paper demonstrates that early childhood drought exposure significantly hinders female education, leading to lower educational attainment, increased illiteracy, and reduced likelihood of secondary school completion. These adverse effects are concentrated among women from rural households, suggesting that drought impacts operate through disruptions to agricultural livelihoods. Furthermore, the paper finds that early-life drought exposure is associated with reduced adult height, an increased likelihood of early marriage, and continued engagement in agricultural labor. This study provides novel evidence on the enduring human costs of climate variability in the Middle East and North Africa region, highlighting the urgent need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of rural women in the face of climate change. |
| Date: | 2025–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11190 |
| By: | Miguel Perez (MultiON Consulting) |
| Abstract: | This study applies Stata’s quaidsce quaidsce quaidsce quaidsce command to estimate a censored demand system for food consumption in Mexican households using data from the 2022 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures. The high prevalence of zero expenditures across food groups presents a challenge for traditional demand estimation methods. quaidsce quaidsce quaidsce quaidsce implements a two-step procedure that corrects selection bias, ensuring more accurate estimates of price and income elasticities. Our findings demonstrate that failing to account for censoring leads to systematic biases in elasticity estimates, with distortions increasing as the proportion of censored observations grows. By efficiently handling censored dependent variables, quaidsce quaidsce quaidsce quaidsce enhances the reliability of demand system estimation, making it a valuable tool for researchers working with consumption and expenditure data. |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:usug25:07 |
| By: | Louis Olié (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Léo Delpy (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jérôme Ballet (Passages - UB - Université de Bordeaux - ENSAP Bordeaux - École nationale supérieure d'architecture et du paysage de Bordeaux - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article examines social protection pathways in the former French colonies in sub-Saharan Africa. We identify five steps to understanding the patterns and dynamics of social protection in these countries that provide evidence of its exogenous construction. First, we characterize the main developments in social protection systems and policies from their inception, covering the colonial era to the present, underlining the role of colonial legacy and the global social policy framework. Second, we document the similarity of national social protection trajectories and lack of national ownership of the policy problem markedly that characterizes social protection pathways. |
| Keywords: | Social protection, Sub-saharan africa, Colonialism, Global social policy, International aid, Afrique au sud du Sahara, Bénin, Burkina Faso, Cameroun, Tchad, République centrafricaine, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Gabon, Guinée, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritanie, Niger, Sénégal, Comores, Togo, protection sociale, politique de développement, changement social, aide au développement, gouvernance, pauvreté, politique de l'environnement, politique sanitaire, colonialisme, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04633467 |
| By: | Himanshu Jaiswal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); A. Ganesh Kumar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Though the economy of the BIMSTEC members heavily depends on the agricultural sector, the intra-regional trade among them is below par because of several bottlenecks. One such bottleneck is the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures adopted by the members of the BIMSTEC for agricultural products. This article investigates the agricultural trade patterns and the impact of SPS measures on BIMSTEC intra-trade. In a three-step analysis, we first do a demand and supply analysis for agricultural products at HS-6 digits using Michelaye's index. It shows that each member country has several high-potential commodities that can be traded with other member countries, but they are not. Second, we analyze the trends and patterns related to the SPS measures notified by the member countries to the WTO from 1st January 1996 to 31st May 2024. Several stylized facts have been illustrated. Finally, using these SPS statistics in a modified gravity model, we find that both the emergency and the regular SPS notifications significantly and negatively impact the agri-exports, and the former one are more harmful than the latter ones. The notifications, which end up as a trade dispute, hurt trade sentiments significantly. The notifications having objectives such as `Animal health' and `Food safety' are trade-distorting, while the notifications with multiple objectives containing objectives such as `Plant protection' and `Protect humans' are, in fact, trade-inducing. |
| Keywords: | Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, Agricultural Trade, BIMSTEC, Gravity Model, Non-tariff measures |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-013 |
| By: | Sem Duijndam (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); W. Botzen (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Liselotte Hagedoorn (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Marijn Ton (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Jens de Bruijn (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Silvina Carretero (CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]); Jeanne Dachary-Bernard (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bénédicte Rulleau (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jeroen Aerts (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]) |
| Abstract: | Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood riskwill havemajor impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change. |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05189058 |
| By: | Dominique Desbois (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, LEF - Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech, Département EcoSocio - Département Économie et Sciences Sociales pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | With 2050 as its horizon, the focus of this 2025 edition of Déméter is resolutely forward-looking. This horizon serves as a framework for proposing multisectoral reflections on the possible futures of agriculture and agri-food, and their likely impacts in light of current demographic and environmental realities. A series of articles outline the various concerns of the editorial committee members on global agricultural and food issues. The book is organized into three parts: "Agrospheres" analyzes the geo-economic transformations at work, focusing on technological innovations, socio-demographic issues, and climate emergencies; "Regards d'avenir" (Looking to the future) focuses on Pakistan—the fifth most populous country in the world—red fruits, rapidly expanding on-demand products, and genetic resource banks, which preserve our food resources; "Repères" (Benchmarks) documents the French markets for nuts, medicinal and aromatic plants, carbon, and finally French food consumption. |
| Abstract: | Con el año 2050 como horizonte, la orientación de esta edición 2025 de Déméter es decididamente prospectiva. Este horizonte sirve de marco para proponer reflexiones multisectoriales sobre los posibles futuros de la agricultura y la agroalimentación, y sus probables repercusiones a la luz de las realidades actuales en materia de demografía y medio ambiente. Una serie de «artículos» detallan las diferentes preocupaciones de los miembros del comité editorial sobre las cuestiones agrícolas y alimentarias mundiales. La obra se divide en tres partes: «Agrosferas» analiza las transformaciones geoeconómicas en curso, centrándose en las innovaciones tecnológicas, los retos sociodemográficos y las urgencias climáticas; «Perspectivas de futuro» se centra en Pakistán, el quinto país más poblado del mundo, las frutas rojas, productos de demanda en rápida expansión, y los bancos de recursos genéticos, conservatorios de nuestros recursos alimentarios; «Referencias» documenta el mercado francés de los frutos secos, el de las plantas medicinales y aromáticas, el del carbono y, por último, el del consumo alimentario francés. |
| Abstract: | Avec 2050 pour horizon, l'orientation de cette édition 2025 du Déméter est résolument prospective. Cet horizon sert de cadrage pour proposer des réflexions multisectorielles sur les possibles futurs de l'agriculture et de l'agroalimentaire, et leurs impacts probables à l'aune des réalités actuelles concernant la démographie et l'environnement. Des « billets » précisent les différentes préoccupations des membres du comité de rédaction sur les problématiques agricoles et alimentaires mondiales. L'ouvrage est organisé en trois parties : « Agrosphères » analyse les transformations géoéconomiques à l'œuvre, ciblant les innovations technologiques, les enjeux socio-démographiques et les urgences climatiques ; « Regards d'avenir » dirige la focale sur le Pakistan – cinquième État le plus peuplé au monde –, les fruits rouges, produits à la demande en expansion rapide, et les banques de ressources génétiques, conservatoires de nos ressources alimentaires ; « Repères » documente le marché français des noix, celui des plantes médicinales et aromatiques, celui du carbone, et enfin celui de la consommation alimentaire française. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Food, Environment, Rural Economy, Rural Sociology, Prospective, Agricultura, Alimentación, Entorno, Economía rural, Sociología rural, Prospectivo, Alimentation, Environnement, Economie rurale, Sociologie rurale |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05189776 |
| By: | Leonardo Manr\'iquez-M\'endez |
| Abstract: | The United States, a leading global producer and consumer of beef, continues to face substantial challenges in achieving price harmonization across its regional markets. This paper evaluates the validity of the Law of One Price (LOP) in the U.S. beef industry and investigates causal relationships among regional price dynamics. Through a series of econometric tests, we establish that regional price series are integrated of order one, displaying non-stationarity in levels and stationarity in first differences. The analysis reveals partial LOP compliance in the Northeast and West, while full convergence remains elusive at the national level. Although no region demonstrates persistent price leadership, Southern prices appear particularly sensitive to exogenous shocks. These findings reflect asymmetrical integration across U.S. beef markets and suggest the presence of structural frictions that hinder complete market unification. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.21950 |
| By: | Magreth Felician Felix (Tanzania Revenue Authority); Ismail Abdi Changalima (UDOM - University of Dodoma [Tanzanie]); Goodluck Goldian Ntangeki (CBE - College of Business Education) |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing attention to sustainability in supply chain management, empirical evidence on how sustainable supply chain practices directly influence organizational performance, particularly from the perspective of developing countries, remains limited. To fill this gap, the study examines the influence of sustainable supplier management practices on organizational performance. The study relied on the data obtained through structured questionnaires from randomly selected 80 respondents from Dodoma quality furniture located in Dodoma city, Tanzania. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive and multiple linear regression analysis in IBM SPSS version 25. The findings reveal that sustainable supplier management practices, including sustainable supplier selection, sustainable supplier integration, and sustainable supplier monitoring, are perceived as relevant in a manufacturing firm. Furthermore, the findings indicate that sustainable supplier selection, sustainable supplier integration, and sustainable supplier monitoring are positively and significantly related to organizational performance. These findings confirm that sustainable supplier management practices are critical determinants of organizational performance in the context of a manufacturing firm. The study emphasizes prioritizing sustainability in supply chain management to enhance long-term performance and gain a competitive edge in environmentally conscious markets. The positive role of sustainable supplier management practices on organizational performance urges policymakers to develop comprehensive policies supporting sustainable supplier practices, enabling organizations to achieve economic, environmental, and societal benefits while navigating competitive challenges. |
| Keywords: | Performance, sustainable supplier integration, sustainable supplier monitoring, sustainable supplier selection, sustainable supply chain management |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05153497 |
| By: | Nafindra Tsilavina Elisé Rakotoarisoa; Andrianandraina Tolojanahary Olivier Zonantenaina (FOFIFA - Centre National de Recherche Appliquée au Développement Rural); Sarah Audouin (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Fenitra Josiane Rakotondrabearimino (Université d'Antananarivo); Mandranto Nantenaina Andriamanantsoa (Université d'Antananarivo); Syndhia Mathé (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Chloé Lecomte (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Patrice Djamen (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Claire Orbell (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Keywords: | Madagascar, innovation agricole, qualité, Innovation agricole, Services Support à l'innovation, Qualité, Evaluation, Conseil agricole |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05183261 |
| By: | Jose Cobian Alvarez; Budy Resosudarmo |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effects of devastating flooding on household welfare in northern Peru. Remote sensing data are used to construct a novel damage index as a proxy for the local economic impact caused by the 2017 coastal El Niño floods. Using 5-year panel data from the Peruvian National Household Survey (ENAHO), we observe that affected households experience a decrease in income and expenditure compared to those in unaffected areas during the period 2015–2019. Additionally, poverty increases as a result of this natural hazard, especially among households in urban areas. Although there is a recovery in income and expenditure in the aftermath of the floods, households mitigate their consumption through donations of food and clothing. We suggest that, in a context where the occurrence of flooding affects the most vulnerable groups, the development of formal risk-coping strategies such as insurance is crucial for boosting their ability to reduce, mitigate, or adapt to future disaster risk. |
| JEL: | C23 O12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2025-07 |
| By: | Burke, Josh; Mercer, Leo |
| Abstract: | This report consists of a response made on behalf of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in August 2024 to the ‘Integrating Greenhouse Gas Removals in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme’ joint consultation of the UK Government, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs for Northern Ireland. The consultation document is available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultati ons/integrating-greenhouse-gas-removals- in-the-uk-emissions-trading-scheme. |
| Keywords: | UK ETS; BECCS; carbon accounting; carbon credits; carbon market; DACCS; emission trading; GGR |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129080 |
| By: | Mr. Zamid Aligishiev; Daria Kolpakova |
| Abstract: | Peru is highly exposed to periodic El Niño Costero events, which impair production in the country’s fishing, agriculture, and construction sectors, as well as inflict sizeable damages to physical assets. Moreover, rising average temperatures are expected to diminish productivity in agriculture, fisheries, and energy. Without efforts to strengthen its adaptive capacity, the country remains highly vulnerable to such acute and chronic physical risks in the long term. This paper combines a Markov-switching DSGE model with empirical estimates of losses from such risks to conduct a scenario analysis of their macro-fiscal implications. We find that cumulative income losses could reach up to 18.6 percent by 2050 and 50.6 percent by 2100. The analysis further shows that scaling up investments in structural resilience and adaptation can partially mitigate these losses—raising output by up to 12.3 percent by 2050 and 31 percent by 2100—while also generating long-term fiscal savings. |
| Keywords: | El Niño; Weather shocks; Structural resilience; Acute physical risk; Chronic physical risk; El Niño shock; scenario analysis; anomaly in El Niño; temperature anomaly; building macroeconomic resilience; investment needs; Climate change; Natural disasters; Potential output; Global; Caribbean |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/144 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagne (Paris School of Economics); Krasimir Shishmanov (Tsenov Academy of Economics); Penka Shishmanova (Tsenov Academy of Economics); Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | Economic gains from trade integration channel through inward or outward multilateral resistance terms, hence through consumption or production effects. But these impacts differ in their relative intensity among members of the integrated region, which leads to asymmetric outcomes. We study these asymmetric effects of European integration on the exports vs. imports of the members of the Single Market and obtain disaggregated asymmetric EU estimates for 170 industries. The econometric analysis delivers a rich database of more than 9, 300 estimates of the EU effects on trade among its members. Three main findings emerge from our analysis. First, previous estimates where asymmetries were silenced underestimated the gains from EU integration. Second, these asymmetries in the effects of the Single Market on the members’ trade are very large. Third, the EU has benefited disproportionately the consumers in older/richer members and the producers in the new/poorer joiners. |
| Keywords: | European Integration, The Single Market, Asymmetric Trade Costs |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202533 |
| By: | Ojea Ferreiro Javier; Panzica Roberto; Papadopoulos Georgios |
| Abstract: | "This study investigates how extreme flood events can indirectly impact the global supply chain through production disruptions. Using a data-driven, agent-based network model that combines company-level data with flood hazard maps, the research simulates the transmission and amplification of shocks. The findings emphasize that the size of inventories is crucial; a lean-inventory system leads to faster shock propagation, higher losses, and fewer recoveries compared to an abundant-inventory system. Additionally, the study identifies that the number and criticality of flooded companies’ trade links, along with the magnitude of the flood, correlate with the speed and severity of contagion. Interestingly, a key metric —the average criticality of affected firms’ outgoing links— consistently peaks before the onset of the shock’s fast-propagation regime. This could serve as an early warning indicator, giving businesses and policymakers precious time to react. By identifying these critical vulnerabilities, this research provides a framework for enhancing the resilience of global supply chains in the face of increasing climate-related and other risks." |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202509 |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf; Martin D. Siyaranamual; Andy Sumner |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of education expansion on structural transformation and income inequality in Indonesia, contextualized within the Kuznetsian framework of economic development. Using a natural policy experiment from the 1978-1979 extension of the school year, we apply a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to establish the causal relationship between increased education and labour shifts from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets, Structural transformation, Inequality, Indonesia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-50 |
| By: | Lorenz Goette; Zhi Hao Lim |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the potential for behavioral interventions aimed at promoting resource conservation within one domain to induce spillovers in another. Through a large-scale natural field experiment involving around 2, 000 residents, we assess the direct and spillover effects of real-time feedback and social comparisons on water and energy consumption. Three interventions were implemented: two targeting shower use and one targeting air-conditioning use. We document a significant reduction in shower use attributable to both water-saving interventions, but no direct effects on air-conditioning use from the energy-saving intervention. For spillovers, we precisely estimated null effects on air-conditioning use arising from the water-saving interventions, and vice versa. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.04371 |