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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Theofanis Zacharatos; Ginevra Coletti; Konstantinos Dellis; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | The agricultural sector contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions while facing pressures to meet nutritional needs of the growing population. Reducing post-harvest food losses represents an underappreciated path to achieving net-zero emissions without requiring radical changes in production systems. In this study, the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use, and Energy (FABLE) Calculator simulates post-harvest loss (PHL) reduction scenarios, assessing their socioeconomic and environmental impacts. We model five pathways: a business-as-usual pathway entitled Current Trends, two scenarios with 25% and 50% PHL reductions, and two National Commitments pathways, combining PHL reduction with other policies. Results show that reducing PHL alone lowers production needs and costs by increasing supply chain efficiency. However, only the NC-25% pathway achieves greater cost savings and emission reductions, underscoring the value of combining supply- and demand-side interventions. Ultimately, this study underscores that reducing post-harvest losses is linked to achieving many SDGs and is essential for transitioning to more sustainable agri-food systems. |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2547 |
| By: | Widmaier, A. |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a novel biodiversity dataset for Brazil, measuring the annual change in species richness during 1985-2020 at 300m resolution. It then uses a spatio-temporal ARDL model to establish the long-run effects of bio-diversity loss on agricultural yields. Brazil lost 8 percentage points in species richness compared to an undisturbed baseline during 1985-2020, largely driven by substantial reductions in regions bordering the Amazon. Long-run crop yields decreased up to 4% for every percentage point in biodiversity loss, and up to 10% when considering pest control species. Resulting soybean and maize yield decreases reduced agricultural GDP by 15.3% in 2020. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity, Crop Yields, Agriculture, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model |
| JEL: | C23 C82 O13 Q11 Q57 R14 |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2543 |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Vos, Rob; Kim, Soonho; Park, Beyeong; Zaki, Sediqa; Mamboundou, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available. The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience. |
| Keywords: | staple foods; food prices; Ukraine; less favoured areas; vulnerability; food security; imports; price volatility |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:140444 |
| By: | Donato Romano; Luca Tiberti; Tulia Gattone; Raul Caruso; Sara Balestri; Anna Balestra |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the pathways linking climate change and conflict, shedding light on the critical role the agrifood system can play as an intermediary. By conducting a scoping review of recent literature (2014-2024), this paper identifies two main pathways: increased competition over natural resources used in agriculture and decreased agricultural productivity. While some relationships, such as those examining the immediate causes of conflict – like threats to livelihoods, increased migration, and food insecurity – have been extensively studied, others, such as the impact of price changes and market forces, remain surprisingly underexplored. Various empirical approaches have been employed to identify these pathways, including ordinary least squares and logit/probit regressions as well as instrumental variables and structural equation modeling. Recently, the availability of high-resolution georeferenced datasets including socio-economic, environmental and conflict data, along with methodological advancements like spatial econometrics, have prompted more detailed and rigorous analyses. Current research gaps include the paucity of empirical studies at the micro level and the insufficient exploration of how market-based mechanisms influence the dynamics between climate change and conflict through the agrifood sector. The paper discusses future research directions, emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary approaches. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, conflict, agrifood system, agricultural production, resource scarcity. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q25 Q18 D74 O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2025_12.rdf |
| By: | Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Marilign, Yalew M.; Warner, James; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather event of 2015/16 caused severe drought conditions in northern and central Ethiopia affecting the welfare of millions of farmers in late 2015 and early 2016. Using nationally representative panel data collected in 2012 and 2016 and recent advances in the difference-indifferences literature, this paper explores the effects of the 2015/16 drought and the potential role of irrigation in reducing the adverse effects of the drought. We find that the drought caused, on average, a 37 percent reduction in net annual crop income, an 8 percent decline in area cultivated, a 3 percent decline in household dietary diversity score, and a 10 percent decline in the share of harvest sold for rainfed farmers. On the other hand, irrigating farmers affected by the drought managed to increase their daily expenditures by 72 percent of their average daily food expenditure in the pre-drought period, and maintained their net crop income, size of cultivated land, household dietary diversity, and share of harvest sold to the market. Overall, while rainfed agricultural producers suffered sharp declines in welfare, those farmers with access to irrigation maintained their economic status. The results suggest that irrigation protected farmers from the adverse effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event and given increasing climate variability in Ethiopia, the government should intensify its investment and support to irrigation development in the country. |
| Keywords: | drought; irrigation; resilience; farmers; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:139780 |
| By: | Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Andam, Kwaw S.; Amare, Mulubrhan; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Fasoranti, Adetunji |
| Abstract: | Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world and one of the highest consumers. This paper documents the challenges in cowpea production and consumption, export, and import trends in Nigeria. The critical and comparative review reveals several important insights. Cowpea is important for households and communities due to its substantial contributions to food security, nutrition, and revenue production. It plays a pivotal role in supporting various stakeholders involved in the value chain, including producers, processors, traders, and food vendors. Thus, cowpea is a crucial multipurpose crop. Although Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world, with a total production of 3.6 million tons in 2021, the demand for cowpea surpasses its supply due to factors such as the country's large population and low productivity. We describe the main challenges encountered in Nigeria's cowpea production, encompassing a range of issues such as high susceptibility to pests and diseases from planting to storage phases, low adoption of improved cowpea seed varieties, poor soil fertility, drought, and heat stress. The data suggest that low input use, low-yield varieties, and low productivity characterize the current level of cowpea production. Our findings suggest the need for tailored strategies to support the adoption of improved cowpea varieties in Nigeria to increase domestic production, adherence to quality standards, exploration of international markets for export opportunities, and ultimately, household income and improve nutritional outcomes. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; cowpeas; value chains; households; exports; imports; Nigeria; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:139672 |
| By: | Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops. |
| Keywords: | bioeconomic models; climate change; maize; crop modelling; agricultural production; modelling; climate models; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:139503 |
| By: | Martin, Will; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | Progress toward reducing global hunger has stalled since the mid-2010s. In fact, hunger is on the rise again, driven by slowing economic growth and protracted conflict, intensified by the impacts of climate change and economic shocks in many low- and middle-income countries. In addition, food systems worldwide have suffered disruptions in recent years, caused by the COVID-19-related global recession and associated supply chain disruptions, and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. These factors have also jeopardized efforts at addressing the challenges to food system sustainability. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the related sustainable development goals (SDGs), defined in 2015, recognize these challenges and set ambitious targets to end hunger and all forms of malnutrition and to make agriculture and food systems sustainable by 2030. Many other fora have restated and reiterated these ambitions, including the 2021 United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS). While governments around the world have subscribed to these ambitions, collectively they have not been very specific as to how to achieve the SDGs and related goals and targets, except for three means of implementation (MOI) involving (i) increases in research and development, (ii) reductions in trade distortions, and (iii) improved functioning and reduced volatility in food markets. This paper is part of a wider effort at assessing the international community’s follow-through on the above ambitions and the related (implicit or explicit) commitments made toward action for achieving them. While not presenting new research findings, we bring together available evidence and scenario analyses to assess the progress made toward the ambitions for transforming food systems, the actions taken in regard of the internationally concerted agenda, and the potential for accelerating progress. The number of hungry people in the world has risen from 564 million in 2015, when the SDGs were agreed, to 735 million in 2022. While declines to between 570 and 590 million by 2030 are projected, this is far above the 470 million projected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. The share of the world’s people unable to afford healthy diets is projected to decline from 42 percent in 2021 to a still far too high 36 percent by 2030. On the means of implementation, levels of spending on agricultural research and development have increased, particularly in key developing countries such as Brazil, China and India. However, rates of investment remain too low for comfort, particularly in low-income countries. Also, little progress has been made in reducing agricultural trade distortions and many countries continue to use trade policy measures, such as export restrictions, which have proven to increase the volatility of both world and domestic food prices. We conclude that progress toward the SDG-2 targets has been dismal, and that the food system challenges have only become bigger. But we also find that it is not too late to accelerate progress and that the desired food system transformation can still be achieved over a reasonable timespan and at manageable incremental cost. Doing so will require unprecedented concerted and coherent action on multiple fronts, which may prove the biggest obstacle of all. |
| Keywords: | food security; food systems; hunger; nutrition; diet; sustainable development goals |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:138940 |
| By: | Tomoki Fujii (Singapore Management University); Christop Waibel (Construction Robotics and Innovative Building envelopes (CRIB), Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), 2400 Mol, Belgium); Xinyi Du (Singapore Management University); Zhongming Shi (Chair of Architecture and Building Systems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Singapore aims to achieve 30 percent food self-sufficiency by 2030, known as the 30-by-30 target, and this paper reviews Singapore’s changing landscape for urban agriculture and its recent progress towards the 30-by-30 goal, highlighting key challenges such as land constraints, high production costs, and resource limitations. Building-integrated agriculture (BIA), which utilizes building surfaces such as rooftops, façades, and balconies for food production within urban environments, is examined as a potential way to increase self-sufficiency through a simulation. Despite the BIA’s potential, practical issues—including regulatory concerns and infrastructure limitations—must be addressed before it can be implemented at scale. Insights from Singapore’s experience offer valuable lessons for other dense, land-scarce cities around the globe in seeking to enhance local food and sustainable production and strengthen resilience against supply shocks and disruptions. |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:021400 |
| By: | Léo Delpy (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This article is an original contribution to reconsider social protection mechanisms in contexts of rural extreme poverty from the perspective of One Health approach. Poor individuals in rural areas confront a set of risks stemming from climate, agriculture, livestock, health, and nutrition. This article introduces new perspectives in understanding the interplay between climate change and development. By delving into the interconnection between human, non-human animal, and environmental health issues, the One Health approach offers an original outlook for redefining the development of social protection programs. Then, this article operationalizes this approach in the context of southern Madagascar, a region characterized by the prevalence and interaction of human health issues (e.g. diseases, water and food scarcity), animal health issues (e.g. diseases, water and food scarcity), and environmental issues (e.g. drought, flood, wind). Using a mixed method incorporating original data, this article investigates the array of social protection mechanisms in response to diverse risks (human health, animal health, and environment health). The findings of this article underscore (i) the importance of interactions among human, animal and environmental risks and (ii) the inadequacy of social protection mechanisms in addressing these risks. |
| Keywords: | social protection, one health, poverty, climate change, rural poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05066683 |
| By: | Jean-Marc Blazy (ASTRO - Agrosystèmes tropicaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); M’hand Fares (UMR SELMET - Systèmes d'élevage méditerranéens et tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Alban Thomas (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The objective of our paper is to provide an explanation for the lack of joint adoption by farmers of cleaner technologies in banana production, specifically fallow period (FP) and disease-free seedlings (DFS). Our hypothesis is that while these technologies are synergistic from an agronomic and environmental perspective, and thus efficient from a social interest perspective, they are substitutable rather than complementary from a farmer's private interest perspective. In other words, farmers receive lower returns from adopting both technologies together than from adopting them in isolation. To test this hypothesis, we present a unified empirical framework for assessing complementarity. We estimate a structural model of complementarity that overcomes the unobservable heterogeneity bias found in previous models using a database of 607 banana farmers in the French West Indies. Our results support our hypothesis, showing a substitution effect between FP and DFS rather than a complementarity effect. Moreover, we observe a contrasting profile of adopting farmers: smallholders who are reluctant to change adopt FP, while more specialized farmers who anticipate a pesticide ban adopt DFS. A public policy that promotes joint adoption should compensate smallholders for the cost of the DFS technology, while compensating more productive farmers for leaving their land fallow. |
| Keywords: | Agroecology, clean technologies, complementarity, joint adoption |
| Date: | 2025–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05008165 |
| By: | Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | The agriculture sector receives substantial fiscal subsidies in various forms, including through programs that are linked to production and others that are decoupled. As the sector has reached the technology frontier in production over the last three decades or so, particularly in high- and middle-income countries, it is intriguing to investigate the impact of subsidies on productivity at aggregate level. This study examines the impact of subsidies on productivity growth in agriculture globally using a long time series on the nominal rate of assistance for 42 countries that covers over 80 percent of agricultural production. The econometric results show heterogenous effects from various subsidy instruments depending on the choice of productivity measure. Regression results suggest a strong positive effect of input subsidies on both output growth and labor productivity. A positive but relatively small impact of output subsidies is found on output growth only. Subsidies that are mostly decoupled reveal no significant impact on any of the productivity measures. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity; agricultural technology; econometrics; globalization; input output analysis; subsidies |
| Date: | 2024–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:140668 |
| By: | Zorbas, Christina; Resnick, Danielle; Jones, Eleanor; Suri, Shoba; Iruhiriye, Elyse; Headey, Derek D.; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob; Arndt, Channing; Menon, Purnima |
| Abstract: | Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2), Zero Hunger, by 2030 is in jeopardy due to slowing and unequal economic growth, climate shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict, lackluster efforts toward investing in food system sustainability and agricultural productivity growth, and persistent barriers to open food trade. Nevertheless, numerous commitments to achieving SDG 2 have been repeatedly expressed by Heads of State and Ministers at diverse global meetings since the SDGs became a focus in 2015. To identify the intensity and degree of convergence of commitments that national governments have collectively made to realizing SDG 2, this paper provides a qualitative assessment of statements from more than 68 global meetings and 107 intergovernmental commitment documents since 2015. Analyzing these commitments against seven critical factors necessary for impact at scale, we find that stated intentions to solve the global food security and hunger challenge have become more pronounced at global meetings over time, especially in the wake of the crises. However, the intent to act is not consistently matched by commitments to specific actions that could help accelerate reductions in hunger. For instance, while increased financing is often recognized as a priority to reach SDG 2, few commitments in global fora relate to detailed costing of required investments. Similarly, many commitment statements lack specificity regarding what and how policy interventions should be scaled up for greater action on SDG 2 or the ways to enhance different stakeholders’ capacities to implement them. While horizontal coherence was mentioned across most global fora, it was only present in about half of the commitment statements, with even less recognition of the necessity for vertical coherence from global to local levels. Despite global acknowledgement of the importance of accountability and monitoring, usually by way of progress reports, we find few consequences for governments that do not act on commitments made in global fora. We discuss the implications of these findings and offer recommendations for how to strengthen the commitment-making process to help accelerate actions that can reduce food insecurity and hunger and augment the legitimacy of global meetings. This work can inform the policy advocacy community focused on SDG 2 and those engaged in catalyzing and supporting intergovernmental action on other SDGs. Our findings reiterate the importance of attention to global governance and the political economy of global meetings—which is necessary to strengthen our focus on delivering outcomes that put the world on a path that brings the solution to the problems of global hunger and food insecurity within reach. |
| Keywords: | food security; diet; accountability; food policies; hunger; governance; nutrition |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:138946 |
| By: | Peter Zhixian Lin; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | In the early 1940s, Japanese American farmers represented a highly skilled segment of the agricultural workforce in the Western United States, characterized by higher education levels and more specialized farming expertise than U.S.-born farmers. During World War II, around 110, 000 Japanese Americans (and 22, 000 agricultural workers among them) were forcibly relocated from an “exclusion zone” along the West Coast to internment camps. Most never returned to farming. Using county-level panel data from historical agricultural censuses and a triple-difference (DDD) estimation approach we find that, by 1960, counties in the exclusion zone experienced 12% lower cumulative growth in assessed farm value for each percentage point reduction of their 1940 share of Japanese farm workers, relative to counties outside the exclusion zone. These counties also lagged in farm revenues, adoption of high-value crops, mechanization, and adoption of commercial fertilizer. We present suggestive evidence of broader negative spillovers to local economic growth beyond the agricultural sector. Taken together, our findings highlight the long-run economic costs of this policy, illustrating how the loss of skilled farmers can reduce agricultural growth and, in a time of fast technological adoption, may have negative effects on the whole regional development. |
| JEL: | N42 N52 O15 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33971 |
| By: | Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.; ElDidi, Hagar |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is highly dependent on irrigated agriculture for employment, income generation and food security—around 90 percent of all food production relies on either surface or groundwater irrigation. The growing dependence of agriculture but also industries and the drinking water sector on groundwater has led to the overexploitation of groundwater resources and, in some areas, to the deterioration of groundwater quality. Fiscal incentives for solarization of irrigation/drinking water pumps are likely to further increase water withdrawals and make water governance more complex. To understand the perspectives of groundwater users, a qualitative study was conducted in the alluvial groundwater systems of Punjab as well as the hard rock systems of Balochistan. Interviews with key informants at federal, provincial, and district level were also conducted to capture insights from additional decisionmakers affecting groundwater management and governance. The study identified a series of challenges around groundwater management and use, including overexploitation of groundwater resources, worsening groundwater quality raising serious health challenges, lack of communities’ participation in decision making, particularly women, non-availability of actionable data, weak enforcement of laws and regulations relating to groundwater governance, and partisan decision-making driven by political influentials and local bureaucracies. Solarization of irrigation pumps without proper regulatory and monitoring framework is expected to exacerbate groundwater extraction and accelerate water stress. The study strongly suggests an urgent need for not only integrated water management at all levels with equitable distribution of water resources but also to engage local communities and other stakeholders, including women in water conservancy awareness campaigns, groundwater quality monitoring, and decision-making. Moreover, the management and governance of water, particularly groundwater, must be insulated from political and partisan decision making. It is equally important to look at the quality of groundwater from a wider prism, considering health and water supply, sanitation and hygiene to address the increase in water borne diseases. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; food security; groundwater irrigation; women; employment; governance; Pakistan; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:139604 |
| By: | Sarah Wheeler (Flinders University of South Australia, University of Adelaide); Céline Nauges (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); R. Quentin Grafton (ANU - Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | The allocation of water across space and time is a key challenge of water governance, with demand and supply often not well matched over time and place. Best practice water pricing and markets may promote water conservation, yet their application is limited. We highlight the governance principles needed for best practice water pricing and water markets, describe differences across regions, and provide six key water demand governance recommendations, for both Global North and Global South countries. |
| Keywords: | Global South, Global North, water trade, water markets, water crisis, water security, climate change, sustainable development, taxes, costs, tariffs, subsidies. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05143769 |
| By: | Ali ZEGGAGH; Serge GARCIA |
| Abstract: | Water scarcity is a major challenge in many Mediterranean countries, where intermittent water supply and inefficient distribution lead to significant economic and social costs. This paper examines the cost structure of drinking water utilities in Algeria, focusing on the impact of water rationing, network inefficiencies and production constraints. Using a translog cost function estimated with a Cluster-Robust Correlated Random Effects Instrumental Variable (CRE-IV) approach, we analyse the determinants of variable costs and assess network economies such as economies of density and scale, as well as trade-offs in water supply management. Our results indicate the presence of economies of scale in both water production and distribution, with cost elasticities of 0.7415 for production capacity and 0.7904 for distributed volume, suggesting that expanding service coverage can reduce average costs. However, we find strong cost complementarities between water losses and distributed volume, suggesting that utilities often prioritise increasing supply over network maintenance. Furthermore, the interaction between (possibly reduced) service hours and production capacity shows a significant positive effect on marginal costs due to the water availability constraint, highlighting the economic burden of continuous water supply in a context of resource scarcity. By estimating the shadow price of water in situ, we quantify the opportunity cost of water abstraction, and find a value of 18.59 DZD/m3, compared to the estimated marginal cost of 5.77 DZD/m3. This reflects the problem of water scarcity and the inefficiency of current supply strategies. Our findings underscore the need for better resource allocation policies that emphasise network rehabilitation, demand-side management and cost-reflective pricing mechanisms, hence providing important insights for policy makers seeking to improve the efficiency and sustainability of water supply systems in water-stressed regions. |
| Keywords: | Drinking water distribution, water supply interruptions, water scarcity, water losses, cost function, shadow price of water. |
| JEL: | C23 C26 D24 L95 Q25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-19 |
| By: | Edison D. Macusi; Erna S. Macusi |
| Abstract: | The Davao Gulf in the Philippines has diverse marine resources on which the coastal fishing communities crucially depend for their food and livelihood. Recent studies have shown that resource depletion in the country’s fishing grounds is due to overfishing and destruction of the aquatic environment. In 2014,  a joint administrative order by the Department of Interior and Local Government and the Department of Agriculture was implemented in the Davao Gulf to establish a three-month closed fishing season to reduce the annual fishing effort by 20 percent. This study aimed to validate the effectiveness of the closed season fishing policy; identify the factors that influenced the positive response in implementing the fishing policy; understand how it influenced the fishing strategies, movement patterns,  and effort allocation of small-scale fishers; and determine the possible impacts of the policy on main commercial markets. The results of the study showed that the unabated capture of wild fish can impact the marine ecosystem if not allowed to replenish itself. Recent advancements in fishing technology using GPS and sonars,  coupled with increasing fish demands from a fast-growing population, have resulted in widespread depletion of global fish stocks. Other findings from this study revealed the cooperation of fishers and fishing communities toward its implementation and provided evidence for economic motivation, informed communication, better organization, and perceived negative consequences of violations such as the impounding of fishing gear and boats and the scale of operation promoted by the government. |
| Keywords: | Davao Gulf, small-scale fisheries, Philippines, fisheries |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sag:seadps:2025:603 |
| By: | Emiliano Basco; Diego Elías; Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre; Luciana Pastore |
| Abstract: | Agriculture, and especially soybean production, has a critical role in Argentina's economy, as a major contributor to GDP and export revenue. This paper studies the impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina using a novel department-level dataset spanning 1980–2023. We estimate a fixed effects spatial error model (SEM) to quantify the long-run effects of weather shocks - measured by extreme heat, precipitation, and ENSO phases - while controlling for economic and technological factors such as seed technology and relative prices. Our results show that extreme heat significantly reduces yields, while moderate rainfall boosts them up to a nonlinear threshold. El Niño phases increase yields, whereas La Niña events are detrimental. Technological adoption and favorable price signals also enhance productivity. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both climatic and spatial dynamics when analyzing agricultural outcomes. The model provides a strong empirical basis for forecasting soybean yields and informing policy decisions under increasing climate uncertainty. These models can be employed as effective tools for anticipating yield outcomes under different climate scenarios and utilized in climate-related stress exercises. This work provides valuable insights for policymaking decisions, contributing to prepare for potential economic impacts stemming from climate risks on Argentina's agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | Soybean Yields, Argentina, Forecasting, Model Selection |
| JEL: | Q10 Q12 C13 C32 C33 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1278 |
| By: | Yafei Wang; Marielle Brunette; Fanny Claise |
| Abstract: | Forest insurance is a relevant tool to consider in a context of increasing natural hazard due to climate change. However, forest insurance is highly heterogeneous from one country to another, with some countries having large insured forest areas and others not. In this article, we attempt to identify the reasons for this heterogeneity. To do so, we compare the forest insurance schemes of two countries, France and China. France is characterized by a low level of insured forest area, while China is the opposite. We identify differences and similarities between the two schemes that can explain the heterogeneity in terms of insured area. In particular, we highlight the different role of the government in these schemes. Finally, we present some innovative insurance products likely to encourage insurance adoption. |
| Keywords: | Insurance, Forestry. |
| JEL: | G22 Q54 Q23 Q58 O57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-14 |
| By: | Headey, Derek D.; Venkat, Aishwarya |
| Abstract: | Climate change is resulting in increased frequency of extreme weather events, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) already characterized by highly vulnerable malnourished populations. Unsurprisingly, there are many empirical studies of the linkages between extreme weather events and undernutrition, especially stunting and wasting in early childhood, and several existing reviews of this literature. However, the quality of empirical studies in this highly multi-disciplinary literature is uneven, and existing reviews do exhaustively illustrate the potential pitfalls of climate-nutrition analyses. In this more critical review, we therefore have five objectives. First, to map out the existing literature, particularly in terms of the types of dependent and independent variables used, the geographies in which different studies focus their analysis, and the types of statistical methods used. Our second objective is to illustrate the empirical limitations and pitfalls of this literature through a more critical review. Our third objective is to be critically constructive, by developing a checklist of good practices for analytical studies in this literature, which we hope will be formalized and broadly adopted. Our fourth objective is to illustrate the usefulness of these good practices through a deep dive into what we consider an exemplary study in the literature from Blom et al. (2022). Our final objective is to identify possible steps for new types of survey methods and data collection, actions for the adoption of best-practice analytical methods and identify important research questions for future research. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; climate change; nutrition; undernutrition; extreme weather events; stunting; wasting disease (nutritional disorder) |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:138887 |
| By: | Samantha Borkhoche; Miss Eman Abdulla; Mr. Edward R Gemayel; Vidhi Maheshwari; Faten Saliba |
| Abstract: | Africa is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change despite its minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. The continent’s burden manifests in shifting weather patterns which threatens food security and economic stability, compounded by a growing population. This paper is a novel attempt at understanding whether trade in “green goods" and engaging in “green practices" can reduce negative environmental outcomes in the region. Using local projections methods, we find that increasing trade in “green goods" decreases the harmful effect on the environment in the medium-term. In the medium-term, there are cumulative improvements in ecological footprint by about 4%, decreases in net CO2 emissions embedded in trade by about 60-100% of total domestic production, and decreases in PM2.5 air pollution by about 1%. We also construct a novel Green Practices Index for Sub-Saharan Africa to benchmark individual country performance and facilitate regional cooperation on green practices. We find that engaging in green practices decreases harmful environmental outcomes by about 0.3-1.5% in the medium-term. |
| Keywords: | Development strategy; production practices; regional cooperation; externalities; resource use; growth resilience; local projection methods; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/131 |
| By: | Ghosh, Samarpita; Sarkhel, Prasenjit |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how political representation for marginalized groups affects development outcomes and environmental choices by studying the adoption of clean cooking fuels under India's Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY). Focusing on political reservations for Scheduled Tribes (STs), we assess how these institutional arrangements influence household fuel use across ecologically diverse regions. Using village-level data from the 2020 Mission Antyodaya Survey and high-resolution forest cover data, we employ a spatial regression discontinuity design (SRD) to compare LPG adoption between Scheduled Areas (administratively designated tribal-majority regions) and non-Scheduled Areas. We find that ST political reservations at the assembly constituency level are associated with a significant reduction in PMUY uptake in Scheduled Areas. To explore variation within SAs, we employ Propensity Score Matching to assess the impact of the Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas Act (PESA), which mandates ST representation in local governance. We find that PESA increases LPG adoption in villages located in open forest and scrubland, while it reduces uptake in regions with moderately dense forests. Additionally, our analysis reveals that higher forest cover displaces clean fuel use, and quantile regressions confirm that PESA implementation is linked to forest gains-suggesting that politically empowered ST leaders may promote conservation, inadvertently reinforcing biomass dependence. Our findings highlight a policy trade-off between environmental stewardship and the clean energy transition in ecologically sensitive tribal areas. |
| Keywords: | Clean Fuel, Forest Cover, PESA, Propensity Score Matching, Scheduled Area, Spatial Regression Discontinuity |
| JEL: | O13 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:320716 |
| By: | Jean-Marc Figuet (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Keywords: | Vin, Finance, Entreprises, Consommation, Oenologie, « Entreprise(s) » |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05137973 |
| By: | Custodio Estefania; Jimenez Calvo Sofia; Ramos Maria Priscila; Sartori Martina; Ferrari Emanuele (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "Hunger and malnutrition remain significant challenges in Kenya, affecting labour productivity and economic performance. This work integrates the effect of key micronutrients (haem iron, zinc, and vitamins A RAE and B2) on labour productivity into the DEMETRA single-country dynamic CGE model for Kenya. Aligned with the recent national plans, it simulates a national policy promoting better nutrition by introducing subsidies for healthy foods like fruits, vegetables, fish, and dairy. Preliminary results suggest that building the dynamic baseline micronutrients intakes contribute positively to improve labour productivity in all regions in Kenya; however, disparities of impacts appear across regions due to their differences in the current food security and nutrition conditions. A greater labour productivity is then reflected in an increase in GDP in the medium- and long-term due to micronutrients intake. The simulation of sale subsidies of healthy food commodities highlights the presence of two mechanisms over economic variables: an increase through micronutrients intakes but a decrease due to lower public budget for education and health expenditure that also impact on labour productivity and GDP. These results highlight the necessity to consider a comprehensive socio-economic cost-benefit analysis for each policy measure and further research into alternative strategies like food fortification and biofortification. Nutritional policies could serve as growth strategies by leveraging the hidden economic benefits of nutrient-rich diets." |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:eapoaf:202506 |
| By: | Olivier Droulers (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sophie Lacoste-Badie (LUMEN - Lille University Management Lab - ULR 4999 - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | Objective: To explore the impact of online food shopping in France on the selection of products purchased and its potential impact on shoppers' dietary balance. Design: A qualitative study involving in-depth semi-structured individual interviews. The interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed through a reflexive thematic analysis approach. Setting: France. Participants: Thirty-four male and female respondents aged between 21 and 61 years old, residing in various regions of France, including urban, suburban and rural areas, with diverse profiles in terms of gender, age, location and number of children under 18. Results: Five key themes were identified as influencing decision-making with regard to the products purchased, namely 'less choice, especially for fresh produce', 'sense of security in buying the same products', 'convenience of online shopping through time-saving and product recommendation lists', 'avoiding unplanned purchases' and 'less fresh produce purchased, sometimes replaced by more processed items'. In turn, all of these factors potentially have an impact on the diet of online shoppers. Conclusions: With grocery e-commerce penetration expected to double in the next 5 years, the study underscores the consequences of online shopping on consumers' dietary balance. The findings have practical implications for online food retailers, inciting them to develop solutions that would encourage e-grocery shoppers to buy more fresh produce and sample a more varied diet. Additionally, they highlight the importance of monitoring the influence of technology on the consumer buying process, particularly with regard to food. |
| Keywords: | Balanced diet, Consumer decision-making, Food consumption, Online grocery shopping |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05068599 |
| By: | Jean Marie Cardebat (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Alors que le secteur des vins et des alcools est confronté à des barrières sur ces marchés historiques, il pourrait se retourner vers le Brésil. Le pays coche toutes les cases d'un marché d'exportation, mais il mérite mieux que d'être considéré comme une roue de secours. La filière aurait tout intérêt à s'y intéresser durablement. |
| Keywords: | Vin, Agro-alimentaire, Economie, Alcool, Exportations, International, « Entreprise(s) », Solde commercial |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05133534 |
| By: | Francisco Blasques (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Paolo Gorgi (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Siem Jan Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); James Sampi (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the economic impact of natural disasters on food prices and production. We address the key issues of data aggregation and counterfactual biases. Our data set consists of regional information on prices and production for fourteen food products in Peru. This granularity level of the data allows us to disentangle nominal from real effects, while we still can account for within-country differences. On the other hand, the random nature of intense rainfalls and droughts allows us to establish a natural counterfactual for each event by comparing between and within-regions. Our empirical results show that prices increase in the aftermath of disasters, while production strongly declines, which mask the price increases at the macroeconomic level. This is particularly apparent during extreme events. The supply channel turns out to be the main mechanism through which disasters affect prices. These effects are mostly heterogeneous. When conditioning on storage life-duration of the products, we find that prices of perishable products are affected by rainfalls only while those of semi-durable products by both rainfalls and droughts. |
| Keywords: | Climate events, price, production, fixed effects panel data, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C33 E20 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250024 |
| By: | Laron Alleyne; Patrick Blagrave |
| Abstract: | We examine the vulnerability of inflation in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to global food and fuel inflation changes, drawing on a large panel of 168 countries, including 31 SIDS. Estimates using the local projections methodology of Jordà (2005) reveal that inflation in SIDS is nearly twice as responsive to international food commodity inflation shocks as in non-SIDS counterparts. There is also evidence of asymmetry in food inflation pass-through, with food-inflation increases having larger pass-through than equivalently sized food-inflation decreases. Results hold even in the presence of country-specific fixed-effects and other control variables, most notably the weight of food and oil in a country’s CPI basket, further strengthening the finding that there is something SIDS-specific leading to higher food inflation pass-through. In the case of shocks to international crude oil inflation, the disparity between SIDS and non-SIDS is less apparent. Our results can be interpreted as indicating that market structures, dependence on imports, and the health of supply chains impact food-inflation passthrough, and should thus be priority areas for policymakers in SIDS. |
| Keywords: | Small Island Developing States; Inflation; Pass-through; Local Projections; Global Supply-Chain |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/138 |