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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Hultgren, Andrew; Carleton, Tamma; Delgado, Michael; Gergel, Diana; Greenstone, Michael; Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Jina, Amir; Kopp, Robert; Malevich, Steven; McCusker, Kelly; Mayer, Terin; Nath, Ishan; Rising, James; Rode, Ashwin; Yuan, Jiacan |
| Abstract: | Climate change threatens global food systems 1 , but the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown and controversial 2 . Even within the well-studied context of US agriculture, some analyses argue that adaptation will be widespread and climate damages small 3, 4 , whereas others conclude that adaptation will be limited and losses severe 5, 6 . Scenario-based analyses indicate that adaptation should have notable consequences on global agricultural productivity 7-9 , but there has been no systematic study of how extensively real-world producers actually adapt at the global scale. Here we empirically estimate the impact of global producer adaptations using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12, 658 regions, capturing two-thirds of global crop calories. We estimate that global production declines 5.5 × 10 14 kcal annually per 1 °C global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise (120 kcal per person per day or 4.4% of recommended consumption per 1 °C; P 10, 11 , we find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions losses are also substantial. These results indicate a scale of innovation, cropland expansion or further adaptation that might be necessary to ensure food security in a changing climate. |
| Keywords: | Crops, Agricultural, Temperature, Acclimatization, Internationality, Agriculture, Food Supply, Income, Climate Change, Crop Production |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt9r6850k1 |
| By: | Bakhtmina Zia |
| Abstract: | The impacts of climate change, conflicts, the spread of infectious diseases, and global economic downturns have greatly affected food production, disrupted supply chains, and hindered access to affordable, nutritious food. It poses risks to both local and global food security, in addition to agricultural market competitiveness. Given the increasing concerns about climate change and its implications for global agriculture and food security, evaluating agricultural competitiveness via a composite scale to measure the effects of climate change would be beneficial. This study examined a global agricultural competitiveness index (GACI) framework developed through a systematic review and an expert survey. The results show that most countries experienced a decline in their competitiveness scores with agricultural assessment in the context of the impact of climate change. This framework can serve as a global benchmark for assessing and comparing national and international standing. Furthermore, it can help policy development aimed at promoting sustainable and inclusive agriculture, ultimately contributing to improved global food security. Keywords: Agriculture, Competitiveness, Pillars, Global Agricultural Competitiveness, Index, Climate Change |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.05508 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; armed conflicts; climate change; weather hazards; inputs; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168640 |
| By: | Kinuthia, Dickson; Oingo, Balentine; Bryan, Elizabeth; Davis, Kristin E.; Wallin, Elsa; Bukachi, Salome A. |
| Abstract: | Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path. |
| Keywords: | agricultural production; gender; natural resources; nature-based solutions; smallholders; sustainability; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:169362 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; development; policy analysis; reforms; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168997 |
| By: | Adeyanju, Dolapo; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Gelli, Aulo; Idowu, Ifetayo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income. The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals. |
| Keywords: | school feeding; efficiency; sustainability; agricultural development; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:158431 |
| By: | Kariuki, Sarah W.; Mohamed, Asha B.; Mutuku, Urbanus; Mutegi, Charity; Bandyopadhyay, Ranajit; Hoffmann, Vivian |
| Abstract: | Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact. |
| Keywords: | food safety; aflatoxins; impact assessment; agricultural technology; smallholders; training; maize; crops; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168192 |
| By: | Hazell, Peter B. R.; Timu, Anne G. |
| Abstract: | Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services. |
| Keywords: | agricultural insurance; case studies; farmers; literature review; private sector |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:169010 |
| By: | Katoch, Sonali; Kumar, Anjani; Kolady, Deepthi E.; Sharma, Kriti |
| Abstract: | This study examines the adoption of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional data collected at the farm level in three key states of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh in 2023. A Food Safety Index (FSI) was developed to assess the intensity of adoption of food safety practices. Determinants of compliance with practices were assessed using multiple linear regression and an ordered logistic model. Generalized propensity score matching was used to evaluate the heterogenous impact of the adoption of FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are embracing a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the food safety index at the farm level. The various socioeconomic and demographic factors influence compliance with FSM which include education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure. The impact assessment reveals the direct relationship between FSM compliance and performance indicators. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, and strengthening formal marketing channels. |
| Keywords: | dairy farming; data; food safety; impact assessment; smallholders; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:152508 |
| By: | Farjana, Fariha; Nguyen, Thanh Tung; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | The internet is expanding at a rapid rate, which is true even in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. The internet affects how people produce and consume food and other goods and services. This may also have implications for incomes and diets in smallholder farm households, where poverty and undernourishment are still commonplace. Here, we use primary data collected from 720 farm households in Bangladesh to analyze how using the internet affects agricultural production activities and food consumption choices. Potential issues of endogeneity are addressed through an instrumental variable approach and other quasi-experimental methods. Our results suggest that using the internet increases farm production diversity, commercialization, and income by improving farmers’ access to markets, information, and innovative ideas. We also find positive effects on dietary diversity, even though the results depend on the concrete dietary indicators used. Strikingly, using the internet seems to encourage the production of certain nutritious and profitable foods but does not always lead to an increase in their consumption. Our results highlight the important role of the internet in enhancing farm productivity, income, and potentially also diets. At the same time, our findings also suggest that more efforts are needed to improve dietary outcomes and nutrition. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:358944 |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being. |
| Keywords: | smallholders; land rights; loans; livelihoods; weather; credit; remote sensing; access to finance; gender; impact assessment; insurance; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162767 |
| By: | Pal, Barun Deb; Kapoor, Shreya; Rashid, Shahidur |
| Abstract: | Salt water intrusion and rising soil salnity are threatening food and livelihood security of paddy farmers in coastal Bangladesh. Visible manifestations of these challenges are degraded soils and chronic decline in tradtional farming, as it is becoming an increasingly infeasible means of livelihood. Promoting saline-tolerant paddy varieties (STRV) has been one of the major focuses of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and the attention to the problem has been intensified in recent years through a partnerhsip with a consortium of CGIAR centers. Howewer, robust empirical analysis has hitherto been limited. Using farm level data, this paper analyzes the determinants and impacts of the adopting these new varieties. We use a multi-variate logit model to identify the constraints to adoption, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Endogeneous Switching Regression methods to assess the impacts on yeilds, and net income of the paddy farmers. Results show that adopting saline-tolerant rice varieties raises crop yield by an average of 1 to 2 tons per hectare, equivalent to a net income increase of about US$100 per hectare of cultivated land. Yet, adoption rates remain low due to several institutional constraints and perhaps a lack of nudging farmers in the scaling up strategies. Robustness of the results are tested, and the implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation; impact; livelihoods; saltwater intrusion; rice; seeds; soil; technology adoption; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:159540 |
| By: | Yami, Mastewal; Cavicchioli, Martina; Abate, Gashaw T.; Kramer, Berber |
| Abstract: | Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies. |
| Keywords: | gender; social inclusion; teff; wheat; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:159546 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face. |
| Keywords: | farm inputs; financial inclusion; food security; households; inorganic fertilizers; seeds; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162588 |
| By: | Pitts, Stephen Michael |
| Abstract: | Many smallholder agricultural producers around the world struggle to make a living in difficult market environments. These producers face important decisions: whether to enter producer cooperatives, whether to remain loyal to these cooperatives, and whether to stay in rural agriculture or migrate to cities. They are influenced by the decisions of their peers, the market environment, and climate change. My research aims to better understand these decisions at the micro- and macrolevels. With these insights in hand, I hope to work with producer organizations to improve their services and local governments to improve their policies, in both cases to better serve smallholder producers. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaeth:358877 |
| By: | Stewart, Hayden; Kuchler, Fred; Sweitzer, Megan |
| Abstract: | Food products sold at retail stores may carry a variety of claims on packaging, including claims about human health (low fat), environmental stewardship (USDA Organic), and the types of inputs used in making the food (non-genetically modified organism or non-GMO). This study examines which claims appeared most frequently on fluid milk and yogurt product packaging, the number of claims that appeared on products, which ones were complementary (appearing together), and which ones competed for consumers’ attention (appearing on separate products). Emphasis is placed on claims related to farm production methods. Label Insight and Circana (formerly IRI) data for 2022 were used to conduct the study. Claims that a product is USDA Organic certified were found on 10.9 percent of fluid milk products and 8.9 percent of yogurt products. Organic products were also more likely to contain animal welfare and non-GMO claims than conventional fluid milk and yogurt products. Natural food claims were more common than organic claims and commonly appeared with hormone-free claims. Complementary claims fell into two groups: Verified claims that required farmers, suppliers, or retailers to incur some expenses appeared together, and claims that required little or no new activities or costs appeared together. The two groups rarely overlapped. |
| Keywords: | Dairy Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:358890 |
| By: | Yi, Jing; Jiang, Shiyun; Tran, Dianna; Gómez, Miguel I.; Canning, Patrick; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Barrett, Christopher B. |
| Abstract: | The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | food systems; agricultural development; gender gap; input output analysis; labour; agricultural value chains; employment; structural adjustment |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168646 |
| By: | Thurlow, James; Holtemeyer, Brian; Jiang, Shiyun; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee |
| Abstract: | Transformation of the agrifood system is a cornerstone of many governments’ national development plans. This reflects the importance of agrifood systems for the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor populations as well as the continued strong association of agricultural transformation with longer-term economic development and structural change. Agrifood transformation is also key to healthier diets and more sustainable production systems. However, adopting an agrifood system perspective is not trivial—it requires looking “beyond agriculture” when prioritizing policies and tracking outcomes by also considering upstream and downstream agrifood-related activities, such as agro-processing and food distribution. Measuring transformation therefore requires economywide data and innovative metrics. This study introduces two such metrics: AgGDP+, which captures the total value-added across the on- and off-farm sectors of the agrifood system, and AgEMP+, which reflects the employment generated across its various components. It further explains how consistent estimates of AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ were produced for 211 and 186 countries, respectively, over the period between 2000 and 2021, and demonstrates how this Agri-Food System Dashboard—a publicly available resource—can be used to monitor transformation, prioritize investments, and better understand the evolving role of agrifood systems in national economies or at regional or global scales. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; economic development; investment; livelihoods; healthy diets; sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:174848 |
| By: | Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; Pradhan, Mamata |
| Abstract: | Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is pivotal in combating the impacts of climate change on global agriculture and food security. It has increasingly gained prominence as an adaptation strategy against the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly in South Asia. However, scaling up the adoption of CSA interventions becomes critical, due to predominantly small and marginal nature of landholdings in the region, various institutional and policy constraints, and trade regulations and barriers. Another significant challenge lies in categorizing and prioritizing the multitude of technologies considered to be climate smart. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the different CSA technologies within the socio-economic context of six South Asian countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with the main objective of proioritization and scaling-up of these methods. The study begins by compiling an inventory of existing technologies and subsequently prioritizing them by using the World Bank (WB) CSA Technology Index. Secondly, the study tries to address the key challenges and propose policy measures to upscale the adoption of CSA technologies in these countries using participatory research conducted with the key stakeholders in these countries. The participatory research provided valuable insights, revealing critical policy and institutional barriers, and providing a basis for framing strategies and policy solutions to facilitate wider adoption of CSA technologies in the region. |
| Keywords: | climate change; climate-smart agriculture; prioritization; scaling up; Bangladesh; Bhutan; India; Nepal; Pakistan; Sri Lanka; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:155261 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, Abenezer |
| Abstract: | Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation. |
| Keywords: | public works; public investment; watershed management; small-scale irrigation; nutrition; resilience; social safety nets; food security; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168643 |
| By: | Headey, Derek D. |
| Abstract: | Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts. |
| Keywords: | food insecurity; malnutrition; prevalence of undernourishment; poverty; stunting |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:169686 |
| By: | Ragasa, Catherine; Umar, Sulaiman; Sani, Rabiu Mohammed; Onyibe, Johnson E.; Omoigui, Lucky; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Andam, Kwaw S. |
| Abstract: | This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity. Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers. Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed. |
| Keywords: | cowpeas; maize; seed systems; supply balance; varietal screening; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162923 |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. |
| Keywords: | climate; rice; risk; trade; vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168523 |
| By: | Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Ergasheva, Tanzila; Lambrecht, Isabel B. |
| Abstract: | Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1, 704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations. |
| Keywords: | food security; malnutrition; gender; diet; intrahousehold relations; dietary diversity; Tajikistan; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162924 |
| By: | Eissler, Sarah; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | We present findings from a qualitative study conducted as part of an impact assessment of the Programme to Reduce Vulnerability in Coastal Fishing Areas (PRAREV) , supported by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and implemented from 2013 to 2021. This study was designed to focus solely on the gender aspects of PRAREV, which overall aimed to support fishing communities and actors in the fishing sector in Djibouti, specifically those living in rural coastal areas affected by climate change, by reducing their vulnerability to the effects of climate change and promote co-management of marine resources. The program targeted those who are poor and who rely on fishing, particularly women involved in fish processing and marketing. The qualitative findings shared in this paper complement findings from an accompanying quantitative study, which found positive effects of the program on incomes, production, women’s influence on decisions, and food security, but not on resilience or nutritional status. We used multiple qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with program staff and men and women leaders and members of fishing organizations to examine the following research questions focused on the gender component of the program: 1) How the program was delivered from multiple perspectives; 2) How the program strengthened the fishers’ and fishmonger associations; and 3) The benefits and costs of the program in the areas of climate change resilience, livelihoods, and changes in the fishing sector. While PRAREV aimed to take a gender-sensitive approach, the gender strategy and its delivery could have been improved. PRAREV mainly reached women by intentionally including women fishing organizations so that they could benefit from access to collective resources, training, and knowledge. PRAREV trainings often were not communicated to women members of fishing organizations, which led to women’s relative exclusion compared to men members. However, participants shared both positive and negative feedback on the PRAREV program. They generally agreed that when delivered, the trainings were well received and increased knowledge and awareness of climate change and knowledge of upgrading techniques in the fishing sector. The climate change trainings developed awareness about the drivers of climate change and taught best practices on the preservation of local marine resources. However, these trainings did not address adaptation to depleted fish populations in mangroves or reefs. Other trainings focused on value chain upgrading were well received and when delivered, increased relevant knowledge. However, their reach was limited, particularly among women fishing organization members. Finally, PRAREV provided organizations key resources for value chain upgrading and integration in the fishing sector in a way that preserved the local marine environment (e.g., boats, knives, fishing wires, nets). While fishing organization members spoke positively of these resources, there were challenges in delivering them. They were delivered late in the project, often without training or a sustainability plan, or were often not delivered as promised, creating frustration and tension among group members. They were also often delivered in smaller quantities than originally communicated and as such, the recipient fishing organizations limited their use. Overall, group members felt there was limited transparency in delivering these resources. Based on these findings, we share recommendations for PRAREV and similar programs. We suggest conducting formative research on the local fishing sector to identify how men and women want to participate and the key barriers they face in doing so. With respect to resource provision, programs should provide resources earlier and should deliver them with a sustainability plan that has community buy in. Implementers should aim to understand how groups could make use of high-value common property to enable transparency and sustainability. Trainings should also be tailored to the local context and be more in-depth. Importantly, program staff should ensure that all intended beneficiaries, especially women, are invited and able to participate in program trainings so that all members can benefit from the knowledge, awareness, and skill building gained at each training event. Programs should implement a more robust monitoring plan to ensure resources are adequately used and equitably distributed, and that all intended beneficiary groups benefit equitably. Finally, although PRAREV was designed to undertake a gender-sensitive approach, further refinement of this approach could likely improve program delivery and impact. A gender accommodative approach would have supported and empowered women from within the traditional gender roles that they feel more comfortable with to participate and upgrade in their respective fishing activities. |
| Keywords: | fishing; gender; vulnerability; women's empowerment; Djibouti; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:155277 |
| By: | Kim, Jiyeon; Gammans, Matthew; Arita, Shawn; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | On April 17, 2025, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) finalized a Section 301 action targeting China’s dominance in shipbuilding and maritime logistics by imposing new port fees on Chinese-operated (Annex 1) and Chinese-built (Annex 2) vessels arriving at U.S. ports. This white paper evaluates the implications of these fees for U.S. agricultural exports, using 2024 data on port calls and vessel characteristics. We simulate the counterfactual costs that would have been incurred under the final policy, finding that, absent shifts in routing or vessel choice, annual shipping costs could initially rise by $2.3 billion and escalate to $6.2 billion by 2028. For major commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, the added fees translate to an estimated 5 to 7 cents per bushel. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Risk and Uncertainty, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ndsuag:358893 |
| By: | Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Hoddinott, John F.; Roy, Shalini |
| Abstract: | Evidence shows that cash and in-kind transfer programs increase food security while interventions are ongoing, including during or immediately after shocks. But less is known about whether receipt of these programs can have protective effects for household food security against shocks that occur several years after interventions end. We study the effects of a transfer program implemented as a cluster-randomized control trial in rural Bangladesh from 2012-2014 – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) – on food security in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess TMRI’s impacts at three post-program time points: before the shock (2018), amidst the shock (2021), and after the immediate effects of the shock (2022). We find that TMRI showed protective effects on household food security during and after the pandemic, but program design features “mattered”; positive impacts were only seen in the treatment arm that combined cash transfers with nutrition behavior change communication (Cash+BCC). Other treatment arms – cash only, and food only – showed no significant sustained effects on our household food security measures after the intervention ended, nor did they show protective effects during the pandemic. A plausible mechanism is that investments made by Cash+BCC households in productive assets – specifically livestock – increased their pre-shock resilience capacity. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; resilience; shock; social protection; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:155053 |
| By: | Forest Service |
| Abstract: | The 2020 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment summarizes findings about the status, trends, and projected future of the Nation’s forests and rangelands and the renewable resources that they provide. The 2020 RPA Assessment specifically focuses on the effects of both socioeconomic and climatic change on the U.S. land base, disturbance, forests, forest product markets, rangelands, water, biodiversity, and outdoor recreation. Differing assumptions about population and economic growth, land use change, and global climate change from 2020 to 2070 largely influence the outlook for U.S. renewable resources. Many of the key themes from the 2010 RPA Assessment cycle remain relevant, although new data and technologies allow for deeper and wider investigation. Land development will continue to threaten the integrity of forest and rangeland ecosystems. In addition, the combination and interaction of socioeconomic change, climate change, and the associated shifts in disturbances will strain natural resources and lead to increasing management and resource allocation challenges. At the same time, land management and adoption of conservation measures can reduce pressure on natural resources. The RPA Assessment findings and associated data can be useful to resource managers and policymakers as they develop strategies to sustain natural resources. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:358937 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Angelos Alamanos; Giannis Arampatzidis; Stathis Devves; Konstantinos Dellis; Christopher Deranian |
| Abstract: | Achieving climate-neutrality is a global imperative that demands coordinated efforts from both science and robust policies supporting a smooth transition across multiple sectors. However, the interdisciplinary and complex science-to-policy nature of this effort makes it particularly challenging for several countries. Greece has set ambitious goals across different policies; however, their progress is often debated. For the first time, we simulated a scenario representing Greece's climate-neutrality goals drawing upon its main relevant energy, agricultural and water policies by 2050. We follow a systems-nexus approach that encompasses the FABLE Calculator, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), and the tools WaterReqGCH, LandReqCalcGCH and BiofuelGCH. The results indicate that most individual/sector policies have the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions across all sectors of the economy (residential, industrial, transportation, services, agriculture, and energy production). However, their implementation seems to be based on governance assumptions that often overlook sectoral interdependencies and infrastructure constraints, hindering progress towards a unified and more holistic sustainable transition. |
| Keywords: | Climate Neutrality, Energy-emissions modelling, LEAP, FABLE Calculator, WaterReqGCH, Decarbonization, Greece |
| Date: | 2025–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2544 |
| By: | Ceballos, Francisco; Chugh, Aditi; Kramer, Berber |
| Abstract: | The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization. |
| Keywords: | agricultural extension; artificial intelligence; farmers; inputs; India; Kenya; Asia; Southern Asia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:169348 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John |
| Abstract: | Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | subsidies; fertilizers; resilience; supply chain disruptions; supply chains; global value chains; maize; smallholders; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168639 |
| By: | Bealem, Tigist Endashaw; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Thomas, Timothy S.; Zerfu, Taddese Alemu; Bryan, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | This brief provides an overview of Ethiopia’s climate risks, gender dynamics, and nutrition challenges and includes discussion of how these issues are intertwined, an overview of the policy landscape, and recommendations for strengthening the integration of gender, climate change and nutrition in the country. With a population of approximately 126.5 million people as of 2023, Ethiopia ranks as the second most populous country in Africa and stands out as one of the region's fastest-growing economies, with an economic growth rate of almost 10% per year over the last 15 years (World Bank, 2024). Ethiopia’s agrifood system accounted for 48% of Ethiopia’s national GDP and 77.2% of employment in 2019. Pri mary agriculture alone contributed more than 1/3 of GDP and 2/3 of employment, while other parts of the agrifood system such as processing, trade, and input supply contributed 12.8 percent to GDP and 9.4 percent to employment (Diao et al., 2023). The sector is dominated by smallholder farmers who cultivate a diverse array of crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables (Dawid & Mohammed, 2021). Women make up more than 40% of the agriculture labor force and head approximately 25% of all farming households in the country (World Bank, 2019). |
| Keywords: | climate change; gender; nutrition; economic growth; agrifood systems; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gcanfs:174904 |
| By: | Yang, Yuezhou |
| Abstract: | Debates on Chinese state capitalism and agribusiness expansion have focused on issues of China’s overseas agricultural land investments. While China-focused analyses have deepened our understanding of the complex dynamics between Chinese state-business relations and the diverse regimes of capital export, they often overlook the institutional complexities of host countries. This study addresses that gap by investigating the interplay between the agency of different types of Chinese investors and the land tenure institutions in Tanzania and Zambia. I conceptualize three distinct types of Chinese investors – cooperative competitors, flying geese, and footloose opportunists—each characterized by unique drivers and objectives for internationalization. I further theorize how these investors navigate, adapt to, and improvise within the constraints of host-state land tenure systems. Drawing on 28 comparative cases collected through multiple field trips, the analysis highlights both the differences among Chinese firms operating in the same institutional setting and the varying strategies employed by similar firms across different regulatory environments. The typology developed in this study not only sheds light on the diverse and adaptive strategies of Chinese overseas investors but also provides broader insights into how firms engage with institutional constraints across sectors and beyond Africa. |
| Keywords: | variety of capital; China; Africa; property institutions; agricultural investments; Belt and Road Initiative |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128300 |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora |
| Abstract: | Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region. |
| Keywords: | shock; food prices; fertilizers; markets; price volatility; inflation; food security; welfare; Central America |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162957 |
| By: | Federico Carril-Caccia (University of Granada); Jordi Paniagua (University of Valencia; Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame\nAuthor-Name:Â Marta Suarez-Varela; Bank of Spain; Trier University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of food crises on forced international migration (FIM) flows using a structural gravity model, thereby testing the influence of liquidity constraints in the context of heterogeneous migration costs and economic resources of potential migrants. We construct a dataset that measures food crises' severity, intensity, and causes. Our results suggest that food crises increase forced international migration. While mild food crises skew international migrants to developed and nonneighbouring countries, more severe events divert them to closer destinations. The results indicate that food crises tighten liquidity constraints on migration, and this worsens as they intensify. Under more severe food crises, migrants may lack the necessary resources to afford the higher costs of migrating internationally, particularly to a developed nation, thus choosing a closer destination or migrating internally. |
| Keywords: | Forced migration; Food crisis; Food insecurity; liquidity constraints; heterogeneous migrations costs; Gravity equation |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202530 |
| By: | Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1, 053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit. |
| Keywords: | credit; productivity; investment; smallholders; welfare; risk; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:163758 |
| By: | Hoffmann, Vivian; Murphy, Mike; Kariuki, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Unsafe food imposes significant health and productivity burdens on developing countries. We test the impact of a simple information intervention through which low-income urban consumers in Kenya were provided information about the likelihood that maize flour from the formal and informal sector violated a food safety standard. We find a 42 percent increase in the share of households consuming the similarly priced, lower risk formal sector flour type at follow-up in the treatment group relative to the control group, from a base of 33 percent. The intervention was equally effective for households earning below and above the sample median income level. Our results demonstrate the potential for low-cost interventions to increase the salience of food safety as a product attribute in informal markets or where regulatory enforcement is weak. |
| Keywords: | consumers; food safety; health; households; productivity |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168191 |
| By: | Berniell, Inés (University of La Plata); Marchionni, Mariana (Universidad Nacional de la Plata); Pedrazzi, Julián (Universidad Nacional de la Plata); Viollaz, Mariana (CEDLAS-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design, we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results. |
| Keywords: | Brazil, Amazon, mayoral elections, climate change, gender, Latin America |
| JEL: | J16 D72 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17920 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Tambet, Heleene |
| Abstract: | Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics. |
| Keywords: | climate change; land management; gender; social protection; sustainable land management; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168513 |
| By: | Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Balana, Bedru; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | This country brief supports GCAN's goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Nige ria’s current situation and policy objectives in these areas. A recent study from Andam et al. (2023) underscores the vital role of Nigeria’s agrifood system in the country's economy. In 2019, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $469.3 billion, supported by a workforce of 66.8 million people (Andam et al. 2023). The agrifood sector made a substantial contribution, generating $175.3 billion in GDP and providing employment for 41.9 million individuals. This sector encompasses both primary agriculture and off-farm activities, including processing, trade, transport, food services, and input supply. Primary agriculture alone contributed $103.3 billion to GDP and employed 32.2 million people. Off-farm agrifood activities contributed approximately 40 percent of the agrifood GDP and 20 percent of agrifood employment (Andam et al. 2023). |
| Keywords: | gender; climate change; nutrition; resilience; agrifood systems; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gcanfs:174789 |
| By: | Burger, Maximilian Nicolaus; Nilgen, Marco; Vollan, Björn |
| Abstract: | Citizens’ Juries (CJs) are increasingly implemented as a means to engage citizens in deliberation on complex policy challenges, yet their effectiveness can be undermined by cognitive biases and limited value-driven reasoning. This study evaluates the impact of bias alleviation and value activation exercises on deliberative quality and civic engagement in four CJs conducted in Bogotá, Colombia. Two juries incorporated these exercises as treatment interventions, and two served as controls with extended deliberation time. Results reveal that deliberation itself modestly reduced confirmation bias compared to non-participants, while the structured interventions enhanced participants’ awareness of biases and value-based reasoning. However, the interventions did not significantly reduce the occurrence of biases and led to a perceived trade-off with deliberation time. Participation in CJs also showed improved trust in science and political self-efficacy, demonstrating their potential to foster civic engagement. These findings highlight the nuanced benefits and limitations of integrating debiasing interventions into mini-publics to enhance deliberative quality and equity in policymaking. |
| Keywords: | democracy; environmental economics; food systems; participatory research; public participation; sustainability; Colombia; Americas; South America |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:169372 |
| By: | Mindy L. Mallory; Rundong Peng; Meilin Ma; H. Holly Wang |
| Abstract: | Price transmission has been studied extensively in agricultural economics through the lens of spatial and vertical price relationships. Classical time series econometric techniques suffer from the "curse of dimensionality" and are applied almost exclusively to small sets of price series, either prices of one commodity in a few regions or prices of a few commodities in one region. However, an agrifood supply chain usually contains several commodities (e.g., cattle and beef) and spans numerous regions. Failing to jointly examine multi-region, multi-commodity price relationships limits researchers' ability to derive insights from increasingly high-dimensional price datasets of agrifood supply chains. We apply a machine-learning method - specifically, regularized regression - to augment the classical vector error correction model (VECM) and study large spatial-plus-vertical price systems. Leveraging weekly provincial-level data on the piglet-hog-pork supply chain in China, we uncover economically interesting changes in price relationships in the system before and after the outbreak of a major hog disease. To quantify price transmission in the large system, we rely on the spatial-plus-vertical price relationships identified by the regularized VECM to visualize comprehensive spatial and vertical price transmission of hypothetical shocks through joint impulse response functions. Price transmission shows considerable heterogeneity across regions and commodities as the VECM outcomes imply and display different dynamics over time. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13967 |
| By: | John Buckell; Thomas Hancock |
| Abstract: | There is increasing acknowledgement - including from the UK government - of the benefit of employing deliberative processes (deliberative fora, citizens' juries, etc.). Evidence suggests that the qualitative reporting of deliberative fora are often unclear or imprecise. If this is the case, their value to policymakers could be diminished. In this study we develop numerical methods of deliberative processes to document people's preferences, as a complement to qualitative analysis. Data are taken from the Food Conversation, a nationwide public consultation on reformations of the food system comprising 345 members of the general public. Each participant attended 5 workshops, each with differing stimuli covering subtopics of the food system. In each workshop, individuals twice reported responsibility, from 0-10, for changing the food system for 5 stakeholders (governments, the food industry, supermarkets, farmers, individuals). Analyses examined individuals' perceptions of food system change responsibility. Governments were most responsible and farmers least so. We assessed variation by workshop content, and by demographics. Reported responsibility changed most for individuals, and changed least for the food industry. We devise a model to document a reversion effect, where shifts in perceptions on responsibility that occurred during workshops waned over time; this was strongest among those who intended to vote (rather than not to). These results can support qualitative analyses and inform food system policy development. These methods are readily adopted for any such deliberative process, allowing for statistical evaluation of whether they can induce opinion change. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.14102 |
| By: | Trachtman, Carly; Kramer, Berber; do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy |
| Abstract: | Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research. |
| Keywords: | agricultural research for development; plant breeding; experimental design; market research |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:169025 |
| By: | Pienkowski, Thomas; Clark, Matt; Mascia, Michael B.; Rivera-Hechem, María Ignacia; Gelcich, Stefan; Cook, Carly; Watrobska, Cecylia M.; Jagadish, Arundhati; Mills, Morena |
| Abstract: | This year marks the halfway point for multiple global environmental goals, including plans to nearly double the extent of area-based conservation to 30% of the world’s surface by 2030 (1). To date, this coordinated international effort has been inadequate to halt global biodiversity loss. A major but unaccounted-for cause of the shortfall between policy ambitions and real-world outcomes is the abandonment of conservation initiatives, including both informal abdication of resource management responsibilities and formal reversal of governing rules and boundaries (Fig. 1). The US$200 billion annually committed to conservation is spent on a wide diversity of conservation measures, increasingly beyond traditional national parks and other protected areas (PAs), including community-based conservation, eco-certification, and payments for ecosystem services (2). The scant monitoring of conservation abandonment, derived almost entirely from PAs, demonstrates widespread informal abandonment of management responsibilities (i.e., “paper parks” (e.g., 3, 4)) and formal abandonment through protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) (e.g., 5, 6). |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:49kbx_v1 |
| By: | Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Yimam, Seid; Arega, Tiruwork; Alemu, Tekie; Gonfa, Kidist H.; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of irrigation schemes, the study documents the physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures of irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s most intensively used river basin, the Awash. The findings show that about 20 percent of the equipped area of irrigation schemes in the basin is not being irrigated, while the number of actual beneficiaries on average exceeds the number of planned beneficiaries. The results also show significant knowledge gaps among irrigation scheme managers, extension agents, and leaders of water users’ associations (WUAs): 96 percent of them do not know the total water withdrawals or the irrigation water requirement per season. About 14 percent of the surveyed irrigation schemes have neither traditional water committees nor WUAs, and only 21 percent are organized in legally registered WUAs despite a substantial number of identified benefits of these organizations. Moreover, only 58 out of 489 irrigation schemes have women committee members. Many schemes lack a clear strategy for covering maintenance costs: almost 40 percent of schemes collect contributions from members only when the system fails, while 17 percent report no contributions for maintenance at all suggesting considerable risk of system deterioration and failure. The results challenge some of the assumptions about irrigation infrastructure in Ethiopia and confirm and quantify other assumptions in the literature. |
| Keywords: | irrigation schemes; infrastructure; Awash River; river basins; advisory officers; water user associations; women; Ethiopia; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:158200 |
| By: | Filewod, Ben; Brutti, Giulia; Atkinson, Giles |
| Abstract: | Efforts to balance national economic development and global environmental sustainability in the forests of the Congo Basin can be informed by natural capital accounting. We contribute an initial estimate of the gross value of the Congo Basin forests (in 2019) for four provisioning services (industrial timber, artisanal timber, fuelwood, and bushmeat), one cultural service (tourism), and one regulating service (carbon sequestration). We estimate the distribution of ecosystem service values across land use categories, based in part on mapping customary tenures using a cumulative cost method, thus tying value production and associated incentives to the economic agents who manage forest natural capital. We find a total (i.e. regional) gross annual value for the Congo Basin forests of 2019 USD$ 7.8 billion (equivalent to 6.3% of regional GDP; comparisons with GDP are indicative only because our figures include the value of intermediate inputs). Total gross value is evenly split between lands under legally recognized statutory tenure and areas under alternative tenure arrangements. Values per unit land range from a high of $159.16/ha in community forests to a low of $0.10/ha in Pygmy areas. For carbon services, we compare three prominent approaches for estimating volumes. We find marked variation in both total volumes and the distribution of volumes across public and private economic agents, with significant implications for ongoing efforts to monetize carbon services in the Congo Basin. Our approach and results address critical issues not only of the value of forest assets in the Congo Basin (as well as attendant ambiguities), but also to whom this natural capital value might accrue if demonstrated value is aligned with value realization. |
| Keywords: | carbon; Congo Basin rainforest; distribution; ecosystem services; natural capital accounting |
| JEL: | Q57 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128510 |
| By: | Seymour, Greg; Cole, Steven M.; Costenbader, Elizabeth; Mwakanyamale, Devis; Adeyeye, Olajumoke; Feleke, Shiferaw; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | Increasingly, gender transformative approaches (GTAs), which seek to transform the underlying causes of gender inequalities, including discriminatory gender norms, are being used in agrifood systems (AFS) interventions. A growing body of evidence finds that GTAs contribute to positive impacts on a wide range of important development outcomes and have potential for improving gender equality. One limitation to better understanding changes in AFS-based gender norms as a result of GTAs is a lack of appropriate quantitative tools for measuring these norms. This work is an important step in filling that gap. Herein we detail the collaborative process that we undertook in Nigeria and Tanzania to develop a quantitative approach to measuring gender norms in the cassava, poultry, and fisheries value chains in each country. We then provide guidance for how implementing and research partners using GTAs in AFS can apply our learnings to their own work. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; gender norms; gender inequality; value chains; gender; Nigeria; Tanzania; Africa; Eastern Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:152444 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan. |
| Keywords: | energy policies; food security; health; households; socioeconomics; water; water policies; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:174711 |
| By: | Bernardina Algieri; Leonardo Iania; Arturo Leccadito; Giulia Meloni |
| Abstract: | Can we predict fine wine and alcohol prices? Yes, but it depends on the forecasting horizon. We make this point by considering the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 and 50 Indices, the retail and wholesale alcohol prices in the United States for the period going from January 1992 to March 2022. We use rich and diverse datasets of economic, survey, and financial variables as potential price drivers and adopt several combination/dimension reduction techniques to extract the most relevant determinants. We build a comprehensive set of models and compare forecast performances across different selling levels and alcohol categories. We show that it is possible to predict fine wine prices for the 2-year horizon and retail/wholesale alcohol prices at horizons ranging from 1 month to 2 years. Our findings stress the importance of including consumer survey data and macroeconomic factors, such as international economic factors and developed markets equity risk factors, to enhance the precision of predictions of retail/wholesale (fine wine) prices. |
| Keywords: | alcohol retail and wholesale prices; dimensionality reduction; forecasting models; Liv-ex Fine Wine Indices |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/374676 |
| By: | Rubin, Deborah |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on approaches for strengthening women’s empowerment that were implemented by project partners involved in the International Food Policy Research (IFPRI)-led Applying New Evidence for Women’s Empowerment (ANEW) project funded by the Walmart Foundation. The study explores the partner organizations’ websites and publications, project materials, and selected staff interviews to better understand how each envisions women’s empowerment and the pathways for supporting it. The four implementing project partners are Grameen Foundation, Professional Assistance for Development Action (PRADAN) in India, Root Capital in Mexico, and TechnoServe in Guatemala. Their programs and their organizational approaches vary in whether they primarily focus on women rather than more broadly targeting both women and men and their gender relationships. Some organizations are more “organic” in integrating attention to gender and empowerment into their programs, designing and implementing an approach on a case by case basis. Others are more intentional in establishing organization-wide policies, strategies, and monitoring systems. The organizations also differ in their positions on supporting “economic empowerment” and clear economic benefits such as prioritizing increased income or assets in contrast to those that also seek to actively change social norms and achieve other social dimensions of empowerment that encompass behaviors around decision-making, mobility, and self-confidence. Another variation is in the organizations’ attention to enterprise development and, consequently to entrepreneurship and upgrading, and what aspects of women's empowerment are most critical for achieving those goals. This paper offers implementers and their funders insight into organizational differences in approaches to women’s empowerment. The review demonstrates that both funders and implementers continue to focus on strengthening women’s economic empowerment by increasing women’s incomes and assets, often with good results. However, they often lack clear theories of change or explicit strategies to strengthen other dimensions of women’s empowerment. More nuanced, evidence-based theories of change and targeted actions could strengthen program design to expand and support women’s achievement of empowerment across all its dimensions. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; gender; policies; women; women’s empowerment |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:155195 |
| By: | Falck-Zepeda, José B.; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio |
| Abstract: | Robust impact assessment methods need credible yield, costs, and other production performance parameter estimates. Sample data issues and the realities of producer heterogeneity and markets, including endogeneity, simultaneity, and outliers can affect such parameters. Methods have continued to evolve that may address data issues identified in the earlier literature examining genetically modified (GM) crops impacts especially those of conventional field level surveys. These methods may themselves have limitations, introduce trade-offs, and may not always be successful in addressing such issues. Experimental methods such as randomized control trials have been proposed to address several control treatment data issues, but these may not be suitable for every situation and issue and may be more expensive and complex than conventional field surveys. Furthermore, experimental methods may induce the unfortunate outcome of crowding-out impact assessors from low- and middle-income countries. The continued search for alternatives that help address conventional survey shortcomings remains critical. Previously, existing assessment methods were applied to the impact assessment of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize adoption in Honduras in 2008 and 2012. Results from assessments identified endogeneity issues such as self-selection and simultaneity concurrently with influential outliers. Procedures used to address these issues independently showed trade-offs between addressing endogeneity and outliers. Thus, the need to identify methods that address both issues simultaneously, minimizing as much as possible the impact of method trade-offs, continues. We structured this paper as follows. First, we review the literature to delineate data and assessment issues potentially affecting robust performance indicators such as yields and costs differentials. Second, we discuss and apply four types of approaches that can be used to obtain robust performance estimates for yield and cost differentials including: 1) Robust Instrumental Variables, 2) Instrumental Variable Regressions, and 3) Control/Treatment, and 4) Machine Learning methods that are amenable to robust strategies to deal with outliers including Random Forest and a Stacking regression approach that allows for a number of “base learners” in order to examine the pooled 2008 and 2012 Honduras field surveys. Third, we discuss implications for impact assessment results and implementation limitations especially in low- and middle-income countries. We further discuss and draw some conclusions regarding methodological issues for consideration by impact assessors and stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | maize; yields; impact assessment; agriculture; data; capacity building; machine learning; parametric programming; herbicide resistance; Honduras; Latin America and the Caribbean; Central America |
| Date: | 2025–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:174327 |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | Rapidly changing global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions are prompting countries to rethink their energy and food security strategies more rigorously than ever before. This urgency is particularly evident in many developing countries, especially those of the former Soviet Union (FSU), which have intensified their efforts to reconceptualize agro-industrial complexes (AICs) concerning energy efficiency and renewable energy. The aim of this study is to conduct an integrative literature review to provide a systematic and comprehensive perspective on this subject. An analysis based on the Scopus and Google Scholar databases shows that AICs have attracted considerable interest in recent years due to their potential to increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the agricultural sectors. The main issue with AICs is the urgent need to scale up their application in conjunction with sustainable development practices such as green growth, circular economy and energy transition. The integration of renewable energy sources into AICs can improve agricultural development by promoting the production and integration of sustainable energy into the agricultural sector. The literature review concludes with theoretical and conceptual implications on the studied topic that will be of interest to scholars, policy makers and businesses. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency, integrative literature review, renewable energy integration, sustainable agriculture, synthesis, agro-industrial complexes, circular economy |
| JEL: | Q42 Q16 O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:319683 |
| By: | Ulimwengu, John M. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition security; policy innovation; shock; resilience |
| Date: | 2024–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:163039 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan. |
| Keywords: | energy policies; food security; health; households; socioeconomics; water; water policies; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:174711 |
| By: | Anesti, Nikoleta (Bank of England); Esady, Vania (Bank of England); Naylor, Matthew (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | We construct a novel data set to investigate the sensitivity of household inflation expectations to personal experienced inflation, testing whether households weigh price changes differently across items in the consumption basket. Across households of all age, income, gender, work status, UK region, and house tenure groups, food prices matter significantly more for inflation expectations dynamics than other components, including energy. In particular, households’ expectations are sensitive to changes in food price-driven inflation at short, medium and long horizons, and this association is persistent, non-linear and asymmetric. Our results imply that the risk of household expectations contributing to persistent inflationary dynamics are greatest following large and inflationary shocks to, specifically, food prices. Moreover, our findings can rationalise a number of empirical regularities related to household expectations: their upwards bias relative to actual inflation; cross-sectional heterogeneity across demographic groups; and their ‘supply-side’ oriented view of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Households; inflation expectations; inflation experiences; food prices; heterogeneity; persistence; non-linearities; asymmetries |
| JEL: | C33 D84 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1125 |
| By: | Resnick, Danielle |
| Abstract: | For two decades, there have been ongoing efforts at harmonizing large-scale food fortification (LSFF) policies and procedures in West Africa. Despite some notable successes, micronutrient deficiencies in the region remain elevated. To identify which bottlenecks exist towards greater harmonization on LSFF, this study adopted a political economy perspective to consider areas of contention over interests, ideas, and institutions between domestic stakeholders, across countries, and within regional bodies. The study finds that West African governments have made impressive strides with harmonizing their LSFF standards and committing to the importance of fortification as one of several instruments for improving micronutrient deficiencies. Likewise, the donor and technical community have worked closely with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as specialized institutions of ECOWAS, such as the West African Health Organization (WAHO), to advance the LSFF agenda, support the private sector and national fortification alliances, and identify new food vehicles for fortification. At the same time, incoherent trade, tax, and macroeconomic policies in a context of multiple shocks and crises, protectionist impulses aimed at building up domestic agro-industries, lack of financial commitment to LSFF structures in the absence of donor support, and uneven financial contributions to ECOWAS and WAHO remain barriers to progress. Learning from these lessons and considering how to address LSFF from a holistic perspective that accounts for West Africa’s unique demographic, economic, and political characteristics will not only benefit extant harmonization efforts in ECOWAS but also help with broader continental alignment on fortification under the African Union’s 2025-2036 food and nutrition security strategy. |
| Keywords: | food fortification; nutrition; nutrition policies; micronutrient deficiencies; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:174593 |