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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Raahil Madhok; Frederik Noack; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Olivier Deschenes |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how agricultural production responds to the loss of agricultural labor during the process of urbanization and structural transformation. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration opportunities induced by urban income shocks, we show that agricultural households do not systematically replace lost labor with increased capital. Instead, they cultivate less land and lower their use of agricultural technology, reducing crop production. Resulting changes in land and crop prices induce non-migrant households to expand agricultural investments and production. In aggregate, market adaptation mitigates over three-fourths of the direct agricultural losses from urbanization. Spatial reorganization moves food production from land near urban areas toward more remote areas with lower emigration. |
| JEL: | J43 O13 O15 Q15 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33854 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Zakirov, Bekzod; Useinov, Akhtem |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s and 2000s, Uzbekistan has made considerable progress in improving food security through prioritizing self-sufficiency, crop diversification, and, recently, administrative reforms in the agriculture sector to strengthen this strategic sector of the country. However, growing climate risks, rising food prices, and regional supply disruptions continue to expose the country’s food system to new vulnerabilities. This report emphasizes the importance of both household and food system resilience in ensuring sustainable food security, focusing on balanced nutrition and affordable food, and provides practical policy directions and recommendations. 1. Food availability is strong, but access and affordability remain at risk. Although undernourishment levels are low, many households struggle to afford diverse and nutritious diets. Limited access to healthy food options is the case for rural families and poor urban households, even though many rural families have access to small-scale agriculture. Economic shocks and price fluctuations pose ongoing threats to household food access. 2. Resilience is key to protecting food security during crises. Households with better infrastructure, adaptive capacity, diverse income sources, and strong community networks are more likely to maintain diverse food access during droughts, price shocks, or supply disruptions. Resilience reduces the need for harmful coping strategies and supports recovery. Household resilience also ensures that sufficient and nutritious food is available to maintain food system resilience in the long term. 3. Policies should focus on building resilience across multiple areas. Priority actions include investing in rural infrastructure, promoting climate-smart agriculture, expanding social protection systems, and tailoring support to different livelihoods, such as farmers and vulnerable groups. 4. Stronger government and international collaboration are essential. The Government of Uzbekistan could embed resilience into its national food and climate strategies. International partners can support this by aligning funding, improving data systems, promoting innovation, and scaling up inclusive, community-based solutions. |
| Keywords: | Food security, Resilience, Agriculture, Food production |
| JEL: | Q18 D13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:318075 |
| By: | Ulimwengu, John M.; Mutyasira, Vine; Keizire, Boaz |
| Abstract: | The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), developed by the African Union (AU) in 2003, marked a significant turning point for Africa’s agricultural development. CAADP’s objective was to transform agriculture into a key driver of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security across the continent. Through a focus on increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring that agricultural development was aligned with national and regional priorities, CAADP sought to tackle Africa’s persistent challenges of hunger, malnutrition, and economic stagnation. In 2014, the Malabo Declaration was introduced as the second phase of CAADP implementation, with a new set of ambitious targets aimed at ending hunger and halving poverty by 2025. The declaration reinforced the importance of agricultural-led growth and committed African governments to specific goals, including increasing agricultural productivity by at least 6% annually and allocating at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture. It also emphasized sustainable agriculture, resilience to climate change, and equitable access to resources, particularly for women and smallholder farmers. |
| Keywords: | CAADP; agricultural development; agriculture; economic development; food security; poverty; malnutrition; hunger; climate resilience; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:afsdcs:169385 |
| By: | Chigwe, Tabitha C. Nindi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the adoption of sustainable agricultural intensification practices— particularly cereal-legume intercropping—by smallholder farming households in Malawi. The focus of the study is on how spatial variation in key factors related to agricultural production and marketing influences farming households’ decision-making processes under risk. Separate analyses are done for six distinct agroecological zones in Malawi to evaluate how resource and market constraints affect farming households’ decisions to employ intercropping practices on their cropland and how the variations in these constraints have differing impacts on adoption of intercropping across different regions. This study provides valuable insights into the complexities of smallholder farming choices in diverse geographic contexts. |
| Keywords: | households; intercropping; smallholders; spatial analysis; sustainable agriculture; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:155279 |
| By: | Giorgio Fabbri (Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, GAEL); Paolo Melindi-Ghidi (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE) |
| Abstract: | The transition towards a sustainable food system requires comprehensive changes in food production and consumption, shaped by the interplay of public policy, market forces, and cultural norms. We develop a model to analyse the role of sustainable food culture in shaping consumption choices, particularly in terms of purchasing from short food supply chains. The model accounts not only for the heterogeneity of preferences and their evolution but also for the heterogeneity of incomes. This allows for a discussion of the effectiveness of policies fostering sustainable food consumption choices, considering their varying impacts across income levels. The results suggest that if policy makers seek to promote a sustainable food system, public policies must be carefully designed, as their effects can be uncertain and may impact low-income households. |
| Keywords: | Culture, sustainable food, short food supply chain, income distribution. |
| JEL: | Q18 Q56 D31 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2507 |
| By: | Wilson, William W.; Bullock, David; Dubovoy, Isaac |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:358647 |
| By: | Plastina, Alejandro; Wongpiyabovorn, Oranuch; Palange, Kyra; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | This joint report from the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) and the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies (CAPTS) provides an updated forecast for North Dakota farm income in 2025 and a preliminary outlook for 2026. Using the RaFF Farm Income Model—calibrated with USDA administrative data and regional projections from FAPRI-MU—the analysis projects a 39% increase in North Dakota net farm income (NFI) in 2025, reaching $4.79 billion. The primary driver of this increase is a sharp rise in direct government payments, which more than offset a $1 billion decline in crop receipts and stable production expenses. Livestock receipts are expected to rise modestly, led by record cattle prices. In 2026, NFI is projected to fall by 48% as government payments return to typical levels and commodity receipts weaken further. These projections provide a benchmark for evaluating short-term income dynamics in the state’s farm economy under current policy and market conditions. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing |
| Date: | 2025–05–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ndsure:358582 |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| Abstract: | This document outlines a comprehensive strategy for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to support implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035. With its renewed focus on transforming Africa’s agrifood systems, CAADP provides a framework to address criti cal challenges captured in six strategic objectives that cover sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, investment mobilization, food and nutrition security, inclusivity, resilience, and governance. Building on its long history of support to the CAADP process, IFPRI’s engagement with CAADP 2026–2035 will focus on providing evi dence, strengthening policy processes, building capacity, and supporting investment mobilization to accelerate Africa’s agrifood system transformation. This strategy identifies specific entry points and pathways through which IFPRI can contribute to achieving CAADP’s six strategic objectives including: (1) research and knowledge genera tion; (2) technical assistance and policy support; (3) capacity development; (4) investment and financing support; (5) monitoring, evaluation, and learning; and (6) stakeholder engagement and convening. Working closely with other CGIAR centers and leveraging its country and regional offices, expertise, partnerships, and extensive expe rience in Africa, IFPRI aims to play a pivotal key role in enabling CAADP’s vision of agricultural transformation and inclusive growth, contributing to food security, economic development, and resilience across the continent. By working across regional, subregional, and national levels, IFPRI will engage with partners to help translate CAADP 2025’s ambitious goals into tangible outcomes for food security, resilience, and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | CAADP; agrifood systems; sustainability; food security; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:174069 |
| By: | Fang, Peixun; Gimiseve, Harry; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohibitive to a large share of the population. This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and considering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clusters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transportation, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance access to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain. |
| Keywords: | poultry; households; livestock feed; value chains; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:152443 |
| By: | Dolislager, Michael; Belton, Ben; Reardon, Thomas; Awokuse, Titus; Ignowski, Liz; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Saravi, Babak; Tschirley, David |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to bring concepts from economic geography and human geography into closer dialogue and apply them to the analysis of food systems. We analyze temporal and spatial patterns of diet trans formation in Bangladesh using data from nationally representative household surveys. We conceptualize diet transformation as a ‘triangle’ comprised of three elements (food purchases, diet diversification, and processed food consumption), influenced by four conditioners (time, income, non-farm employment, and space). We find that: (1) Diets are converging over time and space. food purchases, non-staples, and processed foods occupy high shares of food consumption value, irrespective of urban or rural location. Controlling for income, rural landless households and households in urban areas have very similar diets. Households in ‘peripheral’ and ‘non-peripheral’ rural areas experience similar levels of diet transformation. (2) Food purchases and processed food consumption are conditioned mainly by non-farm employment (NFE). (3) Diet diversification is positively associated with income, but not with NFE or land ownership. We characterize the spatial convergence of diets as an outcome of ‘time-space compression’ (the accelerating volume and velocity of economic and social transactions resulting from advances in transport and communications technology), and the distinct form of peri-urbanization under conditions of extremely high population density found in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | diet; rural urban relations; food systems; household surveys; food prices; food consumption; off-farm employment; economic geography; Bangladesh; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprpp:159534 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | This paper makes a comparative analysis of investment in the agricultural sector, starting with a general conceptualisation of the issue of investment and particularly investment in agriculture on the African continent. A comparative analysis is made investments in African countries such as Angola, South Africa and Mozambique, from the point of view of agriculture's contribution to the GDP of these countries, in which the Mozambican agricultural sector contributes more than 20% to the economy and is one of the largest sources of employment. Agricultural investments in Africa are mostly financed by credit lines from international organisations and different creditor countries. Of the three countries under analysis, South Africa has a very well organised and developed agricultural structure, producing for the domestic market and supplying some international markets. One of the problems in African agriculture is the lack of efficient agricultural policies and an input market. Experiments carried out in some African countries show that some farmers who received fertilisers at zero cost had a significant increase in agricultural production. |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:a53vf_v1 |
| By: | Chistophe Muller (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE); Nouréini Sayouti Souleymane (Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA)) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural policies in poor rural developing countries have the potential to improve both household nutrition and agricultural income. But can these policy consequences be reconciled? This is not obvious because many policies are deficient. Moreover, in villages, mismatches have been observed between nutrition and profit indicators. However, incomes raised by such policies may generate nutrition improvement. In Niger, a major program directed to agro-pastoralists is the 3N Initiative. Do these policies enhance households’ agricultural profit and dietary intakes? And if so, is it because of an income effect, or through alternative channels? Using an agropastoral survey conducted in 2016 Niger, we find that livestock extension services that reduce calorie intake while improving diet diversity operate mostly through an increased household’s pastoral profit. In contrast, veterinary services and low-cost livestock feed programs improve diet diversity, but do not affect profit and calories. Because livestock extension services foster households specializing in cattle and sheep rearing and sometimes switching to transhumance, they restrict their access to energy-dense cereals. This generate a perverse consequence on caloric intakes, despite rising animal calories. Therefore, nutritional policy-makers should better account for agro-pastoralist access to cereal markets and monitor whether policies generate differential incentives, especially through profit, for specific specialization or lifestyle. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2508 |
| By: | Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Abstract: | Digital innovations hold significant potential to address multiple forms of market failures. However, their adoption remains low and heterogenous across Africa. Smallholder farmers face significant barriers in accessing essential information, limiting their ability to seize market opportunities and enhance profitability. While numerous digital tools have been developed for farmers in the region, most are still in pilot phases. The landscape of digital agricultural innovations in Egypt, the focus of this study, presents a similar outlook, whereby the Egyptian market has an array of innovative digital study, presents a similar outlook, whereby the Egyptian market has an array of innovative digital agricultural tools that offer different services to farmers (including digital advisory agricultural and market services). Several demand and supply-side factors contribute to the low adoption of these digital innovations and their disparities among smallholder farmers in Africa and Egypt. On the supply side, the most important challenges include inadequate public and private investment in complementary infra-structure, unsustainable business models, and a misalignment in the pace of innovation. The most important demand-side challenges include lack of digital literacy, insufficient context-specific needs assessments, digital divide, and accessibility, usability, and user trust. User confidence and trust in digital tools is another important but understudied topic.. However, we lack empirically grounded evidence on alternative supply and demand-side interventions to enhance the adoption and scaling of digital innovations in various contexts, including Egypt. |
| Keywords: | agricultural technology; digital agriculture; digital innovation; smallholders; Egypt; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masprn:152495 |
| By: | Tefera, Mulugeta; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Leight, Jessica; Tambet, Heleene |
| Abstract: | The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) is Ethiopia’s national safety net program, launched in 2005 and currently in its fifth phase. The objective of the PSNP is to protect households’ food consumption and assets, reduce their vulnerability to shocks, and address underlying causes of extreme poverty (MoA FSCD 2020). Households who have an adult available to work are required to take part in public works that focus on building infrastructure and improving the natural resource base (MoA FSCD 2020). As such, these projects are partially designed to contribute to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, there is limited evidence about how sustainable land management (SLM) activities are conducted under the PSNP on both publicly and privately operated lands, and how the uptake of these activities and their benefits differ by gender. |
| Keywords: | households; food consumption; poverty; shock; vulnerability; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshrs:152385 |
| By: | Yamada, Sho; Keeni, Minakshi; Fuyuki, Katsuhito |
| Abstract: | Since the Second World War, conflicts in developing countries have led to the displacement of rural residents. In Sri Lanka, an internal conflict between 1989 and 2009 displaced many rural residents. Muthur residents were forced to evacuate in 2006 and returned in 2014 on average after prolonged displacement. In this study, we aim to identify the constraints on agriculture in post-conflict settings and the roles of governments and aid donors in enhancing the recovery of their livelihoods. Through semi-structured interviews with Muthur farmers, we found conflict-induced constraints, such as deterioration in human capital, destruction of storage facilities, confusion of land ownership, constrained paddy cultivation, along with other agricultural constraints. Addressing land ownership issues and providing financial compensation are crucial for enhancing livelihood recovery in such cases. However, in intrastate conflicts, the role of the government in leading reconstruction is problematic. If land ownership issues are not resolved, development projects can harm their livelihoods. |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3zcwu_v1 |
| By: | Wilson, William W.; Bullock, David; Dubovoy, Isaac |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:358648 |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle; Mekonnen, Daniel; Chege, Christine |
| Abstract: | In late 2023, a unique survey was fielded in Ethiopia to study micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) selling food directly to consumers in two locations in Ethiopia (a woreda of Addis Ababa, and Butajira). The survey was unique as it combines a listing exercise, which attempted to list all businesses selling food directly to customers within a specific area, and a business-oriented survey, which enumerated information about management characteristics, the use of healthy foods, nutritional awareness, and the constraints businesses might face in selling more healthy foods. We find that businesses rarely follow good business practices, they have poor access to capital, and supply challenges and variable quality are major constraints to expanding their businesses. Finally, we find many vendors are not aware of nutritional content of specific foods they might sell. From the business perspective, business trainings could help vendors become better businesses, but helping deal with supply challenges earlier in the value chain could also allow them to sell more, with consistently higher quality. |
| Keywords: | enterprises; food environment; nutrition; surveys; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprpp:155237 |
| By: | Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Xia, Tian; Nava, Noé J.; Li, Xianghong; Cardell, Lila |
| Abstract: | Price and income elasticities are key to understanding how changes in prices and income affect food demand. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s International Food Security Assessment and Baseline models rely on price and income elasticity estimates from previous studies (Seale et al., 2003; Muhammad et al., 2011). This study derives new elasticities using an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) approach and relies on data from the 2017 International Comparison Program (ICP) of the World Bank. The ICP data, covering 176 economies, are categorized by geographic regions and income groups. Results indicate that consumers in low-income economies allocate a higher proportion of their income to necessities like food, while those in high-income economies spend more on luxury goods. Marginal shares demonstrate changes in food spending distribution across subcategories based on income levels. The study also identifies the price elasticity of various food items, distinguishing between relatively price inelastic (e.g., “bread and cereals, ” “oils and fats, ” “fruit, ” “vegetables, ” and “sugar, jam, honey, chocolate, and confectionery”) and price elastic (e.g., “meat, ” “fish and seafood, ” and “nonalcoholic beverages”) subcategories. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerstb:358604 |
| By: | Voraprapa Nakavachara; Chanon Thongtai; Thanarat Chalidabhongse; Chanathip Pharino |
| Abstract: | This study examines how consumer attitudes toward animal welfare influence food selection and pricing using real-world market data from a Swiss supermarket. Our findings indicate that higher animal welfare standards are consistently associated with higher prices, suggesting that ethical considerations play a significant role in generating price premiums based on consumer preferences. On average, a one-point increase in the animal welfare score (ranging from 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest) corresponds to a 16.4% price increase, with the effect being most pronounced in Dairy & Eggs (25.3%), compared to Meat & Fish (14.3%). These results highlight the psychological and behavioral factors underlying consumer preferences for ethically produced foods. Additionally, we find limited evidence of a price premium for climate-friendly food products, observed only in Yogurts & Desserts, a subcategory within Dairy & Eggs. Our findings contribute to the understanding of how ethical food attributes influence consumer decision-making and pricing in retail settings. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.04042 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Dorosh, Paul A.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | This report synthesizes the key discussions and outcomes of the “Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications” conference, held on March 5, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya. Convening a diverse group of experts in research, development, and humanitarian efforts, the conference aimed to explore actionable solutions for the socioeconomic challenges triggered by Sudan’s ongoing conflict. Participants at the conference delved into the conflict’s adverse impacts on agriculture, markets, employment, and food security, as well as its wider regional impacts. Notably, the conference findings underscore the urgent need for supporting smallholder farmers, stabilizing markets, generating employment opportunities, and enhancing agricultural productivity within a comprehensive recovery strategy. Furthermore, conference participants stressed the importance of innovative data gathering, collaborative policy formulation, international support, and coordination to ensure effective interventions. This report succinctly presents the interventions discussed in the conference’s research and panel discussion sessions, particularly the pivotal insights offered in each to guide policy that will build peace, strengthen resilience, and relaunch and accelerate human and economic development efforts in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | armed conflicts; data collection; policy innovation; food security; agriculture; resilience; markets; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:140775 |
| By: | Fletcher, Robert; Buchholz, Georg; de Lange, Emiel; Felandro, Isabel; Hotz, Hannes; Kelman, Ariana; Khanyari, Munib; Mcloughlin, Lee; Mumbunan, Sonny; Neumärker, Bernhard; Saif, Omar; Simonneau, Martin; Stinson, Jim; Sze, Jocelyne; West, Ben |
| Abstract: | This article outlines the case for a Basic Income for Nature and Climate (BINC): a novel mechanism for funding biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation activities. Over the past 150 years, the international conservation movement has successfully protected endangered species in many places throughout the world (Langhammer et al. 2024). Yet it currently struggles to confront rapidly accelerating global biodiversity loss, which some have labelled the sixth extinction crisis (WWF 2024). This biodiversity crisis is compounded by the growing impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Conservation and climate policy have thus become increasingly conjoined (Locke et al. 2021). At the same time, however, there is growing recognition that dominant conservation approaches, centred mainly on creation and enforcement of protected areas (PAs) and other area-based measures, have produced a range of social injustices, including widespread displacement or marginalization of those living in or near conservation-critical spaces (Dowie 2011; Tauli-Corpuz et al 2020). Growing economic inequality throughout the world is a documented threat to biodiversity (Mikkelson et al. 2007). Yet rather than redressing this inequality, conservation has unfortunately often contributed to it by further marginalizing the rural poor who most directly rely on biodiversity for their livelihoods and who are most negatively impacted by climate change (Turner et al. 2012). (...) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fribis:318190 |
| By: | Abdu, Aishat; Malapit, Hazel J.; Go, Ara |
| Abstract: | Agricultural programs targeting women may increase women’s work burdens and shift the distribution of work between productive and reproductive tasks. Complementary information on women’s sense of control over their time highlights additional benefits of agricultural programs beyond changes in women’s workloads. Despite program interventions, gender norms often persist, affecting how communities perceive work intensity and division of responsibilities between men and women. The relationship between women’s time use and nutrition is complex and interacts with mediating factors, requiring a multifaceted approach to program design and evaluation. Evidence linking time use data to nonfarm work is lacking, highlighting the need to leverage WEAI time use data to fill this critical gap. |
| Keywords: | women; agriculture; gender; female labour; division of labour |
| Date: | 2025–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:anress:174463 |
| By: | Mr. Edward R Gemayel; Mr. Samuele Rosa; Vidhi Maheshwari; Christoph Ungerer; Peter Lindner |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces growing climate vulnerability, with rising temperatures and extreme weather threatening agriculture, food security, and economic growth. These challenges worsen poverty, fiscal constraints, and limited human capital investment. To address these risks, SSA countries need to scale up green investments while ensuring debt sustainability. Given insufficient traditional public financing, a mix of grants, concessional debt, and private investments is crucial. This paper presents survey results on climate finance in SSA and introduces the Climate Finance Preparedness Index (CFPI) to assess countries' readiness for green financing, highlighting the need for policy reforms, institutional strengthening, and innovative financial products. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); Climate change adaptation; Climate financing; Mitigation and resilience; Public financial management (PFM) |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/099 |
| By: | Hisaki KONO; Ernst DAVID; Tsilavo RALANDISON; Yutaka ARIMOTO |
| Abstract: | Spatial price dispersion in agricultural markets is often interpreted as evidence of market inefficiencies. Yet, price differences may also reflect variations in product quality, especially where formal grading is absent. This study utilizes a novel dataset of transaction-level paddy rice sales from rural Madagascar, collected in 2022-2023, that includes laboratory-assessed grain quality indicators. By employing hedonic regressions, we construct a composite quality index to quantify how much of the observed cross-regional price variation can be explained by quality differences. We find that quality accounts for only a small share of observed dprice dispersion, and controlling for quality has little impact on conventional measures of market integration. This suggests that buyers may face challenges in accurately assessing quality at the point of sale. In such contexts, buyers appear to rely on village-level reputations as a substitute, with villages known for high-quality rice commanding price premiums that exceed what is explained by observable quality attributes. These results highlight the importance of informal reputation as a substitute for formal quality verification in rural markets and suggest that weak qualityprice linkages may undermine incentives to invest in quality. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-25-004 |
| By: | Victor Ushahemba Ijirshar; Isaiah Iortyom Udaah; Bridget Ngodoo Mile; Joyce Seember Vershima; Abba Adaudu |
| Abstract: | This study examined the effect of insecurity on agricultural output in Benue state. A descriptive survey design was employed, and 400 respondents were purposively selected from insecurity-prone local government areas, namely, Guma LGA, Agatu LGA, Gwer LGA, Gwer-West LGA, Katsina-Ala LGA, Logo LGA, Ukum LGA and Kwande LGA. The data were collected through the administration of a questionnaire and were analysed using t tests and structural equation modelling (SEM). The t-test was used to compare farmers' incomes before and after the insecurity in the study area to assess if the differences were statistically significant, while Structural Equation Modelling analysed the complex relationships among multiple variables, employing regression and factor analysis to model both direct and indirect effects. The results revealed that the monetary value of crop and livestock output decreased during periods of insecurity. Furthermore, the study showed that insecurity has an adverse effect on crop and livestock output. This means that a one percent increase in insecurity leads to a 0.211% and 0.311% decrease in crop and livestock output respectively. The study concluded that insecurity reduced agricultural output in Benue state. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the government deploy more security personnel, establish community policing initiatives, and employ modern surveillance technologies to deter criminal activities in insecure areas. Additionally, for places experiencing farmer-herder conflict, the government should provide grazing reserves for herdsmen and further strengthen the state law on open grazing prohibition and the establishment of ranch law. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.01525 |
| By: | Schmidt, Emily; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie |
| Abstract: | This study describes the employment patterns of rural households in Rwanda and explores their challenges and opportunities for rural income diversification. Detailed analysis using a 2022 rural household smallholder survey on agricultural production and employment in Rwanda, reveals that: • Agricultural wage labor is the dominant source of off-farm income and is the primary means of supplementing rural household income. This is different than other LMICs where households are more likely to develop nonfarm enterprises that bring in extra income and diversify the rural economy towards more value-added output while also increasing demand for rural inputs. • This research suggests that factors like access to education and financial services are key factors to employment decisions and improved rural urban linkages. |
| Keywords: | employment; rural population; households; income; diversification; agricultural production; access to finance; education; Rwanda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:rssppn:155441 |
| By: | Aragie, Emerta A. |
| Abstract: | With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is home to 77 million people who directly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (World Bank, 2024a). The country registered robust agricultural growth of about 5% on average for a decade since 2013 (NBE, 2023). The Ethiopian government has been encouraged to target its development interventions to sustain and accelerate the growth and transformation of the economy (IFAD, 2023; Aragie & Balié, 2019). However, the pattern of support and the composition of growth are critical factors influencing changes in poverty, employment, and diet quality (Christiaensen & Martin, 2018; Pham & Riedel, 2019). Assessing the linkages between economic growth and poverty, employment, and diet quality is a topic of importance to both country policymakers and their development partners. Few studies, including Fan and Zhang (2008), Aragie, et al (2022), Benfica, et al. (2019) and Pauw and Thurlow (2015), have so far assessed and ranked various on-farm and off-farm interventions in relation to their impacts on selected outcome indicators and suggested to policy makers the most cost-effective ways of allocating scarce public resources for maximum impact. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; investment; climate change; prices; globalization; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:168419 |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | There has been an unprecedented development in the governance of the supply of resources, services, innovations, and marketing of products of Bulgarian farms over the last two decades. However, due to insufficient (statistical, official, etc.) information and traditional inadequate (Neoclassical Economics, Agent Theory, etc.) approaches to analysis, there is no complete knowledge of the dominant forms and driving factors of governance in the main functional areas of farm management. This article incorporates the interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics framework and identifies the structure of governance and contractual modes used by Bulgarian farms. It is based on original and representative data collected through a survey with the managers of typical farms of different types and locations. The contemporary structure, factors and evolution of market, contract, internal, collective and hybrid modes of governance used by country's farms in the supply of natural, material, biological, financial and human resources, short-term assets, services, innovations, risk management, marketing of farm produce and services, and provision of ecosystem services, are all specified. A comparative study of the governance structures before the EU accession of the country is also made. The systemic application of the incorporated approach is needed, but it requires the collection of a new type of (micro)economic data on important characteristics of agricultural agents, different forms of governance of farm activities and relations, and critical dimensions and costs of transactions. |
| Keywords: | agricultural contracts, land, service, labor, finance, and input supply, marketing, transaction costs, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124824 |
| By: | Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Hashim; Jones, Eleanor |
| Abstract: | In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur. |
| Keywords: | agrifood sector; sustainable development; investment; poverty; nutrition; Uganda; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:anress:174467 |
| By: | Okrent, Abigail; Zeballos, Eliana |
| Abstract: | This report analyzes recent trends in household food spending across socioeconomic groups amid a combination of uncommon and economically impactful events. These include the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruptions, historically high food price inflation, and the pandemic stimulus. Estimates from a two-part spending model on 15 food categories based on the 2016–22 Consumer Expenditure Diary Survey show a partial return to prepandemic (2016–19) spending levels in 2022, but this was uneven across food categories and socioeconomic groups. As spending at restaurants in 2022 continued to be below 2016–19 levels, spending at supermarkets and other stores remained higher, especially on fruits and vegetables, prepared meals and salads, desserts, and savory snacks and sweeteners. These food spending patterns were similar across sociodemographic groups in 2022, with the exception of households enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). With record inflation in 2022 reducing household purchasing power, non-SNAP low-income households reduced food spending at supermarkets and other stores relative to SNAP households, indicating the program's role in mitigating income constraints. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:358660 |
| By: | Rida Lyammouri; Boglarka Bozsogi |
| Abstract: | Fluctuating precipitation and extreme weather are long-standing features of life in West Africa, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin. Communities across the region have historically adapted to these unique climatic conditions in diverse ways. However, the growing impact of climate change, coupled with challenges to food security and ecological resilience, has elevated these issues on the agendas of regional and international policy platforms. Despite this recognition, the region faces significant capacity-building needs and a lack of vertical integration of sub-national actors in climate strategy—both of which are essential to unlocking the transformative economic potential of climate action. What the region needs now is not more high-level strategies, but concrete implementation. Climate has rightfully gained prominence among strategic priorities, yet actions continue to lag behind rhetoric. Local, regional, and national leaders must approach climate, environmental, and food system issues holistically—embedding them within the local sociocultural and economic context. Crucially, they must also acknowledge and address the role of resource management structures that perpetuate the vicious cycles linking climate stress and conflict. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_21-25 |
| By: | Miriam Manchin; Alex Newnham; Elena Nikolova |
| Abstract: | We study how pre-industrial climate risk during 1500-1800 influenced historical bilateral inward migration and present-day international migration stocks in Europe. Using high-resolution data, we find that one standard deviation increase in historical precipitation decreases the share of today’s migrants in a given location by 0.48 percentage points and also negatively influences historical migration flows. The results only hold in historically rural locations and are driven by climate variability during growing season, suggesting that climate risk affected migration through agriculture. Our findings suggest that the persistent effect of historical climate risk on current migration patterns is through differences in historical prosperity. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Climate Risk, Historical Migration |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:503 |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia presents a unique case among developing countries, having combined major social welfare programs with an East Asian-style development-state approach to investment. However, it differs from its East Asian counterparts in two key areas: it has not maintained decades of uninterrupted political stability, nor has it implemented a comprehensive land reform. Even so, its experience illustrates both the strengths and weaknesses of the East Asian development model. Despite a decade of high growth and significant poverty reduction in the early 2000s, Ethiopia continues to grapple with widespread poverty, vulnerability, high unemployment, food insecurity, and violent internal conflict. These persistent challenges are now compounded by the existential threat of climate change and a rapidly growing youth population. The Government of Ethiopia has proposed an ambitious, multi-year agenda of structural reforms aimed at addressing climate change while pursuing its broader development objectives. These reforms include redefining the role of the state in relation to the private sector. If Ethiopia’s past success in adapting its development strategy is any indication, it may once again be able to turn crisis into opportunity. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_31-25 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan faces significant challenges due to prolonged conflicts, political instability, and economic disruptions. The ongoing conflict is disrupting market systems, exacerbating price volatility, and limiting the availability of essential commodities. Supply chain disruptions, insecurity, and infrastructure damage often restrict market access and contribute to rising food and fuel costs. In conflict-affected areas, transportation and security challenges intensify price disparities, making staple foods and key agricultural inputs increasingly unaffordable, especially for vulnerable populations. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is conducting a comprehensive market monitoring initiative across Sudan’s 18 states, tracking the prices and assessing the availability and quality of essential commodities, observing changes in exchange rates, and gathering qualitative insights from market actors. This report provides an overview of market trends in Sudan during February 2025. It will be updated monthly. |
| Keywords: | commodities; prices; market economies; shock; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:agrowp:174297 |
| By: | Valeriu Nalban; Luis-Felipe Zanna |
| Abstract: | Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that help to understand the propagation channels of these shocks, the policy trade-offs they imply, and the ensuing implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The exercises highlight the important role of economic characteristics and frictions, such as the weight of food expenditures in the consumption basket, the GDP share of the agriculture sector, the degree of imports substituting for the damaged domestic agricultural supply, the extent of inflation expectations’ anchoring and central bank credibility, and the specific characteristics of the monetary policy framework, including the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the definition of the price stability objective. Overall, the extent of these characteristics and frictions in developing countries render them more vulnerable and constitute bigger challenges in monetary policy conduct relative to developed economies. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Weather Shocks; Quarterly Projection Model; Transmission Mechanism; Developing Countries |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/095 |
| By: | Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | This study explores Zambia’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Zambian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data on domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of these outcomes. We find that Zambia’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with foreign capital flows and world market price volatility together accounting for approximately three-fourths of potential variations in GDP, private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. Domestic agricultural yield volatilities contribute the remaining one-fourth. The current struc-ture of the Zambian economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, its relatively small contribution to GDP limits its economywide and macroeconomic impacts. Instead, export earnings from cop-per and foreign exchange capital flows play a much more significant role in shaping Zambia's economic risks and their social and economic impacts. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Zambian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors. |
| Keywords: | shock; economic shock; computable general equilibrium models; agriculture; market prices; exports; climate; machine learning; Zambia; Africa; Southern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ewracb:168167 |
| By: | Huang, Kaixing; Hou, Hao |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the economic impact of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme in China, the world's largest rural public health program, covering over 800 million rural residents. Using longitudinal survey data from villages that gained access to the program in different years, we find that the program improved the probability of being in good health by 4.4% to 8.2% across age groups. For the average participating household, per capita income increased by 20.3% over a decade, driven primarily by greater off-farm labor participation and higher wages, alongside significant agricultural income growth. The aggregate income gains were six times the government's program investments. These effects can be replicated by a structural model that characterizes the health investments and labor allocation of utility-maximizing rural residents. Counterfactual analyses based on the structural model suggest that China could further increase the program's benefits by raising the reimbursement rate up to 0.8 (but not beyond). Additionally, eliminating the current cross-province reimbursement constraints would further boost income gains by 18.7%. |
| Keywords: | rural public health insurance, income, health, migration |
| JEL: | I13 I38 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124703 |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | Tunisia’s stagnant growth since the Jasmine Revolution (2011) illustrates that political democracy, when not anchored in economic democracy, is fragile at best. Economic democracy remains absent in Tunisia, as markets are concentrated and continue to be burdened by high barriers to entry and rules that favor a privileged few. These conditions stifle dynamism, competition, and ultimately, inclusive growth. The government’s decision to paper over these structural weaknesses through subsidies and other forms of social welfare, in an effort to maintain social peace, has proven costly and short-sighted. Under the ongoing threat of climate change, business-as- usual economic management is no longer a viable option. Droughts and floods are becoming more frequent and more destructive; sea-level rise is increasingly contaminating coastal aquifers with saltwater intrusions; and agricultural losses in key crops and livestock continue to undermine food security (FS) for millions. Tunisia’s leadership can turn this crisis into an opportunity— provided it succeeds in transforming the economy to meet the democratic aspirations of its people, both political and economic. This transformation must also ensure climate resilience, attract private investment (both domestic and foreign), and generate full employment. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_27-25 |
| By: | Upton, Joanna; Duchoslav, Jan; Tennant, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | Southern Malawi has historically been less food secure than the rest of the country, and the current lean season will be no different. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee expects 2, 460, 000 people in the Southern Region (29% of its population) to require humanitarian assistance at the peak of the lean season in February and March 2024, compared to 1, 560, 000 people in the Central Region (18% of its population) and 388, 000 people in the Northern Region (15% of its population) (MVAC 2023). The Southern Region is home to 44% of Malawi’s population, but to 56% of those in need of humanitarian assistance. More people in the Southern Region are in danger of going hungry in the coming months than in the Central and Northern regions combined. But who are these people, what is behind their vulnerability, and what does the future have in store for them? |
| Keywords: | food security; households; maize; data; prices; cyclones; crop production; Malawi; Eastern Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:impass:139431 |
| By: | De Weerdt, Joachim; Dillon, Brian; Hami, Emmanuel; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia |
| Abstract: | It is often observed that smallholder farmers sell most of their marketable surplus immediately after the harvest when seasonal price movements reach their lowest point, instead of waiting just a few more months until prices recover. Most explanations for this seemingly sub-optimal behavior focus on economic or infrastructural issues, such as credit constraints or lack of storage facilities. In this study, we take a closer look at two potential behavioral explanations. One explanation focuses on household expenditure and assumes that households face challenges in accurately predicting future expenditures, systematically underestimating future needs. A second potential explanation focuses on household income, where motivated reasoning leads farmers to sell too early and/or at low prices. To test these hypotheses, we conduct two planning-based interventions among a sample of Malawian smallholder farmers: (1) a detailed expense budget and (2) a sales plan with explicit commitment to timing of sales, quantities and prices. The treatments were administered at harvest time in May 2022 and April 2023. |
| Keywords: | household income; prices; smallholders; surpluses; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:148993 |