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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Marshall, Quinn; Hewavidana, Budni H. |
| Abstract: | Food systems generate about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Without reducing them, it will not be possible to stabilize the climate and keep the increase in global temperature below 1.5oC from pre industrial levels. About 50 percent of agricultural emissions (in CO2eq) comes from methane, a super potent GHG, mostly from livestock production and rice cultivation. We consider six broad approaches to emission reduction from agriculture—emission taxes, repurposing of farm subsidies, regulations, investing in green innovations, carbon credits, and demand-side interventions. We find that not only carbon taxes on agricultural production, but also rearranging agricultural subsidies will have only small impacts in terms of improving human and planetary health. Regulatory approaches, including conditionality and payment for environmental services (PES) can be counterproductive if they lower yields and require expansion of agricultural land use. Instead, we find that investing more in R&D for sustainable intensification of agriculture focused on productivity enhancing innovations have strong potential to generate major efficiency gains, drastic reductions in emissions and improved food security. Demand interventions designed to contribute both to environmental goals and improvements in health outcomes can play a supporting role. Since multiple sustainable development goals are to be achieved, no single instrument by itself will be effective. Instead, multiple policy instruments will need to be bundled and designed to create synergies and address trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | food systems; greenhouse gas emissions; agriculture; taxes; subsidies; regulations; sustainable development goals |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168658 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; armed conflicts; climate change; weather hazards; inputs; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2307 |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi; Dauda, Bawa; Balana, Bedru; Edeh, Hyacinth; Shi, Weilun |
| Abstract: | In many developing countries, including Nigeria, much of fruit and vegetable production is lost largely because of lack of an adequate cold chain, including postharvest handling, cold storage and temperature-controlled transportation. As a result, not only the availability of fish, fruits, vegetables, milk, eggs and meat but also the safety and nutritional content of the food are affected. Under such conditions, all agents in the supply chain including farmers suffer from income reduction, while consumers face un-stable and lower-quality supply of normally more nutritious foods. Inadequate development of value chains and deficiencies in high costs associated with cooling systems are main causes of such losses. |
| Keywords: | fruits; vegetables; agricultural production; postharvest losses; cold storage; food safety; agricultural value chains; nutrition; Western Africa; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Nigeria |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:163635 |
| By: | Nguyen, Trang; Termeer, Emma; Berkhout, Ezra; Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew; Dijkxhoorn, Youri; de Steenhuijsen Pieters, Bart |
| Abstract: | In most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) the food system falls short in providing sufficient amounts of healthy foods to a burgeoning population. The growing awareness of how food systems are stressing planetary boundaries and failing to provide sustainable healthy diets and livelihoods has prompted the widespread call to transform the global food system (Béné 2022; FAO et al. 2020, 2024; Webb et al. 2020). Transforming food systems requires engaging various groups of actors with diverse perspectives and challenges (Leeuwis et al. 2021), including setting up alliances with the informal sector (Brouwer & Ruben 2021) and a strengthened focus on the role of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Globally, MSMEs represent about 90 percent of all businesses and account for 60 to 70 percent of employment and 50 percent of GDP. In the current food system, by being present at all value chain stages and better linking small-scale farmers to markets, MSMEs can offer affordable food to both urban and rural areas, create jobs and opportunities for young and female entrepreneurs, and support sustainable, circular food practices (IFAD 2021). These promises can be fulfilled if certain barriers that can hinder their contributions, such as high rates of food loss and waste (FLW), food safety concerns, and the uncertain informal context in which the majority of them operate are addressed (Termeer et al. 2024). |
| Keywords: | food systems; small and medium enterprises; sustainability; healthy diets; value chains; fruits; vegetables; food environment; markets; Benin; Ethiopia; Philippines; Tanzania; Vietnam; Western Africa; Eastern Africa; South-eastern Asia; Africa; Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168852 |
| By: | Hazell, Peter; Timu, Anne G. |
| Abstract: | Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services. |
| Keywords: | agricultural insurance; case studies; farmers; literature review; private sector |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2316 |
| By: | Berendson, Ricardo Morel; Gassmann, Franziska (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, RS: GSBE MORSE, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 2, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 6); Martorano, Bruno (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG); Tirivayi, Nyasha J.; Kamau, John |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of an innovative program that combines microfinance with farming extension services on food security outcomes in rural South-Western Uganda. For this purpose, we use experimental data and monthly panel data collected over two years to monitor seasonal changes. The results suggest that neither the combined approach of microfinance with farming extension services nor standalone microfinance demonstrated significant effectiveness in reducing food insecurity throughout seasons in the period of analysis. Households in both treatment groups experienced a reduction of dietary diversity mainly during land preparation approximately two years after the start of the interventions. Heterogeneous analysis revealed that households receiving MFM services and having better access to markets experienced occasional improvements in food security. Finally, households with higher food poverty levels in the MFM group experienced some improvements in food security, while those in the Microfinance group encountered sporadic negative outcomes in terms of dietary diversity. |
| JEL: | G21 I30 Q16 Q18 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024014 |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; Maruyama, Eduardo; Wagner, Julia |
| Abstract: | A common narrative about agri-food value chains (AVCs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is that smallholders are paid substantially less for their agricultural products relative to the prices consumers pay for them. Some of that difference can be attributed to market channels—even in competitive and efficient agricultural markets, there are costs involved as agricultural products move from producers to consumers, including expenses for transportation, collection and aggregation, grading, processing, distribution, packaging, and retailing. |
| Keywords: | markets; agrifood systems; value chains; agricultural value chains |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168165 |
| By: | Olanipekun, Caleb Ibukun; Salaudeen, Kamaldeen Oladimeji; Totin, Edmond; Yamauchi, Futoshi; Balana, Bedru; Popoola, Olufemi |
| Abstract: | The world population is growing fast, heralding the challenge of feeding over 9.1 billion people with safe food by the year 2050. The amount of food production has increased through efforts made by actors in the agricultural production sector (Bourne, 2014). Food produced globally is sufficient to provide 100% of nutritional requirements of every living human being, but unfortunately, this has not translated to better food security in certain countries in the world, malnutrition has gotten worse in several countries around the world. According to GHI, 64 countries will not reach low hunger, much less zero hunger (SDG2) by 2030, in fact, low hunger status may not be reached globally until 2160. |
| Keywords: | drying; food security; harvesting; solar drying; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:163564 |
| By: | Yi, Jing; Jiang, Shiyun; Tran, Dianna; Gómez, Miguel I.; Canning, Patrick; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Barrett, Christopher B. |
| Abstract: | The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | food systems; agricultural development; gender gap; input output analysis; labour; agricultural value chains; employment; structural adjustment |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2311 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, Abenezer |
| Abstract: | Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation. |
| Keywords: | public works; public investment; watershed management; small-scale irrigation; nutrition; resilience; social safety nets; food security; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2308 |
| By: | Bouët, Antoine; Traoré, Fousseini; Mamboundou, Pierre; Diop, Insa; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.†International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition; sustainable development goals; self-sufficiency; trade; policies; agriculture; Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:4 |
| By: | Namugumya, Brenda S.; Abedin, Jainal; Herens, Marion |
| Abstract: | Strengthening the multidisciplinary capabilities necessary to accelerate food systems transformation has garnered increased interest over the past decade. A capabilities assessment was done with the Strategic Partners of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation in Bangladesh to understand their abilities to facilitate transformative changes towards sustainable healthy diets. Both Strategic Partners, the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) and the Bangladesh National Nutrition Council (BNNC), have long histories and well-established structures for collaboration and coordination with diverse stakeholders to realize the nutrition-focused (BNNC) and the food-related (FPMU) ambitions of the Government of Bangladesh. They are engaged in food and/or nutrition policy development, governance of the sectors, and monitoring progress at both national and sub-national levels. Using a capability assessment tool tailored to capturing food systems transformation capabilities at organizational level, the capabilities to deliver results and adapt and self-renew were the highest scored for FPMU. BNNC scored more on the capabilities to achieve coherence and to relate to support food systems transformation higher. However, food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets emerged as relatively new concepts in both organizations. It was acknowledged that whereas the current mandates of BNNC and FPMU may address issues relevant for sustainable healthy diets, to date this still lacks adequate translation into the current policy development and planning operations and has no intentional prioritization. Both teams underscored the urgency to invest in human resources and institutional capacity strengthening as well as earmarking finances to pursue food systems transformation agendas. Becoming more articulated and explicit about what comprises food systems change, what are sustainable healthy diets and what could be monitored is crucial to support the Strategic Partners to have tangible actions to track. Moving from food system narratives to specific actions will facilitate understanding of what is, or needs to be, monitored. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; sustainability; healthy diets; food systems |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168013 |
| By: | Patrick J. Brady; Melissa N. Laska; Rachel Widome; Sruthi Valluri |
| Abstract: | Background: Food security, defined as consistent access to sufficient food to support an active life, is a crucial social determinant of health. A key dimension affecting food security is position along the rural-urban continuum, as there are important socio-economic and environmental differences between communities related to urbanicity or rurality that impact food access. The COVID-19 pandemic created social and economic shocks that altered financial and food security, which may have had differential effects by rurality and urbanicity. However, there has been limited research on how food security differs across the shades of the rural-urban community spectrum, as most often researchers have characterized communities as either urban or rural. Methods: In this study, which linked restricted use Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data to census-tract level United States Department of Agriculture Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes, we estimated the prevalence of household food security across temporal (2015-2019 versus 2020-2021) and socio-spatial (urban, large rural city/town, small rural town, or isolated rural town/area) dimensions in order to characterize variations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic by urbanicity/rurality. We report prevalences as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Results: The prevalence of food security was 87.7% (87.5-88.0%) in 2015-2019 and 88.8% (88.4-89.3%) in 2020-2021 for urban areas, 85.5% (84.7-86.2%) in 2015-2019 and 87.1% (85.7-88.3%) in 2020-2021 for large rural towns/cities, 82.8% (81.5-84.1%) in 2015-2019 and 87.3% (85.7-89.2%) in 2020-2021 for small rural towns, and 87.6% (86.3-88.8%) in 2015-2019 and 90.9% (88.7-92.7%) in 2020-2021 for isolated rural towns/areas. Conclusion: These findings show that rural communities experiences of food security vary and aggregating households in these environments may mask areas of concern and concentrated need. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-01 |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. |
| Keywords: | climate; rice; risk; trade; vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2310 |
| By: | Haugen, Ronald |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2023–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:349394 |
| By: | Javier Ib\'a\~nez; Jaime Mart\'inez-Valderrama; Joaqu\'in Francisco Lavado Contador; Manuel Pulido Fern\'andez |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an integrated modelling assessment that estimated the sensitivities of five endogenous factors in commercial rangelands, i.e. number of active farmers, profits, stocking rate, standing herbage biomass, and soil erosion, to the same percentage variation in 70 factors, including economic and climate drivers. The assessment utilised a system dynamics model (107 equations) which represents an area of extensive private farms, its farmers, the main local markets on which they trade, and key ecosystem services involved. The assessment procedure consisted in analysing the behaviours of 288, 000 variants of this system during 300 years, each under a different economic and climate scenario. Our key findings were as follows: 1) It is likely that at least annual grasslands will suffer environmental degradation in the future, and that such degradation will be primarily caused by climate change, not by the increasing demand for livestock products; 2) Private farming systems provide social and economic security to farmers against the effects of climate change, especially in a scenario of rising prices of animal products. However, this research will remain incomplete until its methods and results can be contrasted with other similar assessments. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.17215 |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; The Anh, Dao; Tho, Pham Thi Hanh |
| Abstract: | The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply—consumers purchase foods in the food environment, while retailers of the food consumers purchase represent the end of the value chain. In many countries, the food environment is undergoing rapid change as economies grow and populations urbanize; a consequence is that a larger share of food consumed is purchased by the end consumer (de Bruin and Holleman 2023). Viet Nam is no different. Viet Nam’s growing and urbanizing economy has, over time, led to a changing food environment. This note focuses on one type of retailer in Viet Nam’s food environment: the small grocery. We define small groceries as stores that are not supermarkets, are not part of a chain, and have a fixed storefront from which they do business on a daily or near daily basis. These stores play a small but important role in Viet Nam’s food environment, particularly in rural areas, and as we will demonstrate, almost all these groceries sell at least one component of a sustainable healthy diet. As a result, what they sell could help play a role in improving the diets of Viet Nam’s population. To focus on learning more about small groceries, this note makes use of two datasets. One is a listing exercise that enumerated all the businesses selling food in sampled wards of three districts: Dong Da, in urban Ha Noi; Dong Anh, which is in peri-urban Ha Noi; and Moc Chau, which is a rural district northwest of Ha Noi. The second survey used the first survey as a sample frame, and was specifically designed to learn about the constraints and opportunities that micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face in considering selling more healthy foods (Ceballos et al. 2023). Small groceries are one type of business in the food environment, and all can be considered MSMEs. |
| Keywords: | food environment; food consumption; sustainability; nutrition; health; small and medium enterprises; Asia; South-eastern Asia; Vietnam |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168651 |
| By: | Namugumya, Brenda S.; Mengesha, Belay Terefe; Pittore, Katherine; Herens, Marion |
| Abstract: | Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Ethiopia’s Food Systems Roadmap. The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors, and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term, goal-oriented decision making and implementation (Ansell and Gash 2008), for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations. Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; food systems; sustainability; healthy diets; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:169022 |
| By: | Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP and urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, particularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors. |
| Keywords: | climate; shock; market prices; computable general equilibrium models; agriculture; crop yield; poverty; nutrition; machine learning; risk assessment; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ewracb:2 |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim |
| Abstract: | This research report aims to identify major food supply implications and potential entry points for a more efficient, nutritious, sustainable, and equitable transformation of Senegal’s food system. Inspecting key indicators from the FSD, Senegal’s food system is indeed failing to provide healthy diets to the population in an inclusive and sustainable manner. For example, total food supplies are estimated to be energy insufficient (below 2, 500 kilocalories (kcal) per capita per day in 2013), lacking diversity (especially in terms of fruit and pulses, with supplies of only 53 and 15 grams (g) per capita per day in 2019, respectively), and potentially threatening soil biodiversity. Therefore, it is unsurprising to observe that 46 percent of the population in 2020 was unable to afford a healthy diet and 49 percent was moderately or severely food insecure. This is also reflected in the poor performance of dietary indicators for infants and children, as well as the high anemia prevalence in women. |
| Keywords: | food systems; healthy diets; income; urbanization; Senegal; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:1 |
| By: | Berdegué, Julio A.; Trivelli, Carolina; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | The food sector constitutes the largest global source of employment, supporting the livelihoods of most of the world’s poor and vulnerable populations. This article provides an extensive review of the available evidence of the employment effects of innovations and policy interventions in agrifood systems and value chains in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review was guided by a two-part hypothesis: (1) food systems currently underperform in terms of their potential for generating decent jobs and income opportunities, and (2) this gap is only growing as expanding food markets and existing agrifood supply chain business models skew gains to the disadvantage of smallholders, agrifood small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and food sector workers. |
| Keywords: | employment; livelihoods; policies; agrifood systems; value chains; smallholders; agricultural transformation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:169667 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John |
| Abstract: | Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | subsidies; fertilizers; resilience; supply chain disruptions; supply chains; global value chains; maize; smallholders; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Kenya |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2306 |
| By: | jamaldin, sadam |
| Abstract: | This study explores the factors affecting the production of maize among farmers in Mzumbe ward. It is important to understand the challenges facing these farmers in order to improve their yields and livelihoods. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, using both quantitative and qualitative data to analyze the determinants of maize production. The study finds that resource availability, market demand, size of the farm, education level, gender and income, all play important roles in determining the level of maize production. The results also reveal that yield per acre is used as a standard measure of maize productivity. Generally these findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to improve the productivity and profitability of maize farming in Mzumbe ward |
| Keywords: | sadam jamaldin production of maize farm size |
| JEL: | D11 D6 |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119175 |
| By: | Kene Boun My; Quang-Huy Nguyen; Phu Nguyen-Van; Thi Kim Cuong Pham; Anne Stenger; Tuyen Tiet; Nguyen To-The |
| Abstract: | This study uses a quantitative approach based on a discrete choice experiment with 586 farmers in Northern Vietnam to measure how representative market and non-market factors could influence their preferences for participating in organic certification schemes. Our results suggest that a sales contract with either flexible or guaranteed prices is a significant incentive to explain their willingness to pay higher production costs to be involved in organic certification schemes. Furthermore, providing farmers with training and technical support is also essential to motivate farmers toward organic agriculture. Finally, neighborhood cooperatives and formal leaders' participation in organic certification could encourage farmers to convert to organic agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Discrete choice experiment; Organic certification; Farmers' preferences; Leadership; Role of network |
| JEL: | C93 D10 Q00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-6 |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle; Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew |
| Abstract: | The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply—consumers purchase foods in the food environment, while retailers of the food consumers purchase represent the end of the value chain. In many countries, the food environment is characterized by a large number of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) who sell the majority of healthy foods. Ethiopia fits this description; among healthy food groups purchased by at least one-third of customers within a given week, at least 88 percent of consumers making purchases by them from MSMEs (de Brauw and Hirvonen 2024). This note summarizes lessons from a set of surveys conducted among 1686 MSMEs likely to sell healthy foods in woreda 8 of Kolfe Keranyo in Addis Ababa and in Butajira town in central Ethiopia in late 2023. The first survey concentrated on listing all businesses selling food in selected areas of the two sample locations; the second survey then asked detailed questions about the business environment and practices of selected MSMEs. The majority of surveyed MSMEs can be characterized as either kiosks or small shops; the next most common were restaurants, followed by street vendors and juice shops (de Brauw et al. 2024). |
| Keywords: | health; nutrition; food environment; food consumption; small and medium enterprises; Africa; Eastern Africa; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168663 |
| By: | Siewers, Samuel |
| Abstract: | Building upon the argument that factor endowments influence distributional outcomes, this paper examines the consequences of the China shock to global food markets for economic inequality in Brazilian municipalities from 1985 to 2020. I propose a new identification strategy that exploits plausibly exogenous variation in demand for soybeans based on fluctuations in the size of the pig stock in China and show that the proceeds of this China-driven agricultural bonanza have been rather unequally distributed. The soy boom has fueled land consolidation and economic inequality, especially in places dominated by large-scale mechanized agriculture. Income gains have been mostly limited to the top deciles of the distribution, while the poorest segments of the population have become worse off. Additionally, there is evidence that the more unequal a municipality, the more deforestation and rural conflict increase as soy expands. |
| Keywords: | inequality, soybeans, Brazil, China shock, deforestation, conflict, sustainability, supply chains |
| JEL: | D63 F63 O13 Q17 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:310313 |
| By: | Namugumya, Brenda S.; Herens, Marion; Kruft, Krista; de Groote, Bram; Tuyen, Huynh Thi Thanh; Huong, Pham Thi Mai; Thanh, Duong Thi |
| Abstract: | Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Viet Nam’s “National Action Plan on Food Systems Transformation in Viet Nam towards Transparency, Responsibility, and Sustainability by 2030†(FST-NAP). The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term goal-oriented decision making and implementation, for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations (Ansell and Gash 2008). Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; food systems; sustainability; healthy diets |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:169021 |
| By: | Delgado, Luciana; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane |
| Abstract: | At the global level, awareness about the significance of food loss and waste has grown significantly over the past decade. The international community has taken the matter to hand as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and has committed to “halve the per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer level and reduce food losses along production and supply chains, including post-harvest losses†by 2030. |
| Keywords: | beans; capacity development; surveys; value chains; Rwanda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:2 |
| By: | Yun-Shi Dai; Peng-Fei Dai; St\'ephane Goutte; Duc Khuong Nguyen; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | Stable and efficient food markets are crucial for global food security, yet international staple food markets are increasingly exposed to complex risks, including intensified risk contagion and escalating external uncertainties. This paper systematically investigates risk spillovers in global staple food markets and explores the key determinants of these spillover effects, combining innovative decomposition-reconstruction techniques, risk connectedness analysis, and random forest models. The findings reveal that short-term components exhibit the highest volatility, with futures components generally more volatile than spot components. Further analysis identifies two main risk transmission patterns, namely cross-grain and cross-timescale transmission, and clarifies the distinct roles of each component in various net risk spillover networks. Additionally, price drivers, external uncertainties, and core supply-demand indicators significantly influence these spillover effects, with heterogeneous importance of varying factors in explaining different risk spillovers. This study provides valuable insights into the risk dynamics of staple food markets, offers evidence-based guidance for policymakers and market participants to enhance risk warning and mitigation efforts, and supports the stabilization of international food markets and the safeguarding of global food security. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.15173 |
| By: | Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simu late a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the un certainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernour ishment). Key findings suggest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including produc tivity volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, and vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors. |
| Keywords: | shock; economic shock; computable general equilibrium models; agriculture; market prices; poverty; nutrition; crop yield; machine learning; climate; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ewracb:3 |
| By: | Stefano Giglio; Theresa Kuchler; Johannes Stroebel; Olivier Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the economic effects of the interaction of nature loss and climate change in a model that incorporates important aspects of both processes. We capture the distinct ways in which they affect economic activity—with nature constituting a key factor of production and climate change destroying parts of output—but also the ways in which they interact: climate change causes nature loss, and nature provides both a carbon sink and adaptation tools to reduce climate damages. Our analysis of these feedback loops reveals a novel amplification channel—the Twin-Crises Multiplier—that systematically affects optimal climate and nature conservation policies. |
| Keywords: | climate change, biodiversity loss |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11619 |
| By: | Corong, Erwin; Gautam, Madhur; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | As the agricultural transformation associated with economic development proceeds, the economic fulcrum of the agrifood system moves from on-farm, or primary, production activities to activities that are increasingly non-farm sector based, such as agro-processing, food services, wholesale and retail trade, etc. Therefore, the traditional measures of farm employment and value-addition (or GDP) come to represent a smaller and smaller share of the total contribution of the agrifood system. Better quantification is important not only to appreciate the transformation within the agrifood system with economic development, but also to inform better policies and strategies to create more and better-quality jobs and accelerate structural transformation in developing economies. There are two broad approaches to measuring the size of the agrifood sector—tracking activity in agrifood sectors; and exploiting the full structure of the economy to assess the direct and indirect employment required to meet final demand for agrifood products. Both approaches are used in an analysis based on the global GTAP database and their results compared. The findings suggest that the final demand approach provides a more comprehensive assessment of the economic activities needed to meet final demand, with agrifood sector accounting for a much larger share of GDP, and the broader agrifood sector generating more and better-quality skilled jobs for both male and female workers. Another key aspect of the relationship is the resources needed to produce non-food products such as biofuels, clothing and leather products that rely on agricultural inputs. Including the resources needed to produce non-food agrifood outputs substantially increases the importance of the agrifood sector in overall activity and employment. |
| Keywords: | measurement; employment; agrifood systems; agrifood sector; trade |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:169012 |
| By: | Haugen, Ronald |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:349395 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Omoigui, Lucky |
| Abstract: | CONTEXT Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seeds in developing countries, including Africa south of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality control performance of intermediary seed systems such as community seed schemes (CSS), which still operate predominantly outside the formal seed systems. We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS, their economic and technical characteristics, the extent of seed quality control achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing. METHODS Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess origins and drivers of their growth, extent of seed production, relations with upstream actors (breeder and foundation seed providers) and downstream actors (seed buyers), economic structures of their seed production, aspects of quality control measures they engage, and potential roles of external support, such as training on the implementation of these quality control measures. |
| Keywords: | quality control; seed quality; training; legumes; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa; Nigeria |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2302 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Tambet, Heleene |
| Abstract: | Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics. |
| Keywords: | climate change; land management; gender; social protection; sustainable land management; Africa; Eastern Africa; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2309 |
| By: | Nigus, Halefom; Nillesen, Eleonora (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG); Mohnen, Pierre (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, QE Econometrics) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of exposure to markets on farm households' agricultural investment decisions. We assess whether and how market experience affects farmers' adoption of risky but profitable technologies and explore the role of plausible demand-side barriers therein. Specifically, we hypothesize that risk preferences and locus of control change with market experience and as such may explain the relationship between market experience and investment decisions. We use surveys and incentivized experimental data, collected from the Tigray regional state of Ethiopia and use an Endogenous Switching Probit and IV-Probit models to attenuate endogeneity issues. Our findings suggest, first, that market exposure induces farmers to adopt agricultural technologies, such as chemical fertilizer, improved seeds, manure, and row planting and second, that market experience attenuates risk aversion and, although less robustly so, leads to a more internal locus of control. Policies to in crease farmers' investments may thus not be confined to providing access to technologies and information but should perhaps be complemented with interventions that attend to lowering psychological barriers. |
| JEL: | C93 G22 H41 O17 |
| Date: | 2023–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023028 |
| By: | Barbara Annicchiarico (Department of Law, Roma Tre University); Cédric Crofils (LEDa, Paris-Dauphine and PSL Research Universities) |
| Abstract: | Using data from a selection of Latin American countries affected by El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation climate phenomena, we observe that extreme weather events can be highly disruptive for an economy, particularly in the agricultural sector, while also giving rise to inflationary pressures. Motivated by these findings, this paper examines the optimal stabilization policies for a climate-vulnerable economy with two segmented sectors: agriculture (producing food) and manufacturing. In response to climate disasters affecting agriculture, it is found to be optimal to increase fiscal transfers to farmers while maintaining core inflation at its target level. Deviating from the optimal policy mix results in smaller welfare losses as long as core inflation remains stabilized. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Physical risk; Dual Economy; Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy; E-DSGE modeling |
| JEL: | E32 E52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2504 |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi; Dauda, Bawa; Balana, Bedru; Edeh, Hyacinth; Shi, Weilun |
| Abstract: | This note describes a labelling experiment introduced to crates of tomatoes cool transported from the northeast region of Nigeria to Lagos or Port Harcourt. A label was attached to a random sample of crates to ensure that the quality of tomatoes is orthogonal to the labels and the destination market was not informed of the experiment. The label contained the information on (a) the project (IFPRI), (b) the transportation method (cool transportation), and (c) the origin of tomatoes (Jos or Gombe), as shown below. The experiment was conducted in the first rounds from Jos and Gombe (Lagos), and the fifth round from Jos (Port Harcourt). As expected, the labeled crates were priced higher than the unlabeled crates. About 9 to 33% of the sale price is attributed to improved information on the quality of tomatoes via the labels. |
| Keywords: | labelling; prices; tomatoes; capacity building; labelling; cold chains; experimental design |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168929 |
| By: | Aragie, Emerta A. |
| Abstract: | With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is home to 77 million people who directly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (World Bank, 2024a). The country registered robust agricultural growth of about 5% on average for a decade since 2013 (NBE, 2023). The Ethiopian government has been encouraged to target its development interventions to sustain and accelerate the growth and transformation of the economy (IFAD, 2023; Aragie & Balié, 2019). However, the pattern of support and the composition of growth are critical factors influencing changes in poverty, employment, and diet quality (Christiaensen & Martin, 2018; Pham & Riedel, 2019). Assessing the linkages between economic growth and poverty, employment, and diet quality is a topic of importance to both country policymakers and their development partners. Few studies, including Fan and Zhang (2008), Aragie, et al (2022), Benfica, et al. (2019) and Pauw and Thurlow (2015), have so far assessed and ranked various on-farm and off-farm interventions in relation to their impacts on selected outcome indicators and suggested to policy makers the most cost-effective ways of allocating scarce public resources for maximum impact. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; agrifood systems; investment; climate change; prices; globalization |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:162 |
| By: | Suke Li |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes historical data from five agricultural commodities in the Chinese futures market to explore the correlation, cointegration, and Granger causality between Peanut futures and related futures. Multivariate linear regression models are constructed for prices and logarithmic returns, while dynamic relationships are examined using VAR and DCC-EGARCH models. The results reveal a significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures through DCC-EGARCH, whereas the VAR model suggests limited influence from other futures. Additionally, the application of MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction highlights the critical role of time step configurations in forecasting accuracy. These findings provide valuable insights into the interconnectedness of agricultural futures markets and the efficacy of advanced modeling techniques in financial analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.16697 |
| By: | Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Mawia, Harriet; Niyonsingiza, Josue |
| Abstract: | Food systems are critically important for food security and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Moreover, expansion of nonfarm components of food systems (FS) reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. FS, particularly off-farm segments of food value chains, must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations and to provide the quantity and variety of food demanded as a result of increases in urbanization and income, as well as to accommodate accompanying technological and other changes. The impact, inevitability, and amenability to policy interventions of these factors and the extent of FS transformation needed differs across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas that are significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment varies across countries. However, there is currently no system in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy, such as employment. This study of Rwanda uses secondary data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) (2023), World Bank (2023), and Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV) (2023) to investigate demographic trends in overall FS employment and who is and is not engaging in FS; and to document sectoral and overall economic growth, population and demographic changes, and urbanization trends—all which influence and are influenced by FS growth. The study contributes to the literature by testing the predicted patterns of employment growth and inclusiveness in agrifood systems, and by pointing to the nodes of employment in FS where gender- and age-based inequities exist, thereby facilitating policymaking and interventions to ameliorate the problems. In addition, tracking performance in employment-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Rwanda contributes to our understanding of the progress made in SSA toward inclusiveness, efficiency, and poverty reduction, particularly progress that benefits women and the youth. Rwanda’s economy grew remarkably during the two decades covered in the study (2001–2022). Agriculture contributed significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) as well as to overall and FS employment. Per capita income more than doubled, although it still is about half the average GDP per capita of SSA. The population, threequarters of whom are under 35 years of age, increased by 70% during the period. There have been great strides in education, particularly for girls and women. However, urbanization has been slow, and half of the country’s urban residents live in the capital city. The unemployment rate in Rwanda has been twice the SSA average and has generally been increasing. More than half of the workers are employed in agriculture, although this share declined considerably during the period. Farming contributes significantly to FS employment. However, the share of overall FS employment declined during the period, due to a decline in farming employment accompanied by stagnant employment in non-farm FS. Relative to men, women’s overall labor force participation rate is considerably lower and their unemployment rate higher. A larger share of women work in low-skill jobs and this gap increased during the period; a relatively larger share of women are employed in FS, but a smaller share work in the nonfarm component of FS and this gender gap widened. Similarly, relative to mature adults, youth are less advantaged. The labor force participation rate of youth is considerably lower, and the rate of unemployment is higher and increasing relatively faster among youth. However, differences in FS employment among youth and mature adults were considerably lower and shown no clear trend. Findings of this study point to several short- and long-run policy implications. |
| Keywords: | data; employment; food systems; nutrition; youth; Rwanda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:3 |
| By: | Beckman, Jayson; Jarrell, Philip; Morgan, Stephen |
| Abstract: | The retaliatory tariffs against U.S. agricultural exports emerging in mid-2018 have been removed by all countries except for China and Turkey. The tariffs put in place by Turkey largely targeted U.S. tree-nut exports. As of November 2023, Turkey increased the most-favored-nation duty, the tariff that all World Trade Organization members pay, on almonds and walnuts, which further increased the tariff on U.S. exports. This report used a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the impacts to U.S. tree-nut exports from the higher tariff. In addition to the most-favored-nation tariff, the authors examined nontariff barriers that push the effective tariff rate for almonds and walnuts sometimes beyond Turkey’s bound rate (the highest tariff allowed by the World Trade Organization) for imports of tree nuts. The report uses that information to consider a scenario that applied the bound rate for almonds and walnuts to Turkey’s imports. Results indicate that Turkey decreases imports of tree nuts from the United States (and the world) if most-favored-nation tariffs are increased. The effects are magnified if the bound rates are considered. Results from the model indicate that increasing most-favored-nation rates would lead to decreases in U.S. exports to Turkey of almonds by 19.4 percent and walnuts by 26.6 percent. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:349305 |
| By: | Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | There is little evidence on how energy poverty affects rural households in low- and middle-income countries. To address this, the CGIAR NEXUS Gains Initiative developed the Rural Household Energy Insecurity Experiences Scale (RHEIES) and piloted the tool in Ethiopia using in-depth interviews. We find heterogeneous energy insecurity experiences across locations and gender dimensions. |
| Keywords: | rural population; households; energy resources; poverty; economic development; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168170 |
| By: | Héctor M. Núñez |
| Abstract: | This research examines spatial integration in Mexican regional-food markets, with an emphasis on the degree of processing. The analysis employs a pairwise approach to evaluate the convergence of price differentials for each item across city pairs. Additionally, it examines the influence of geographical and economic factors on price convergence. Key findings reveal: 1) there is no evidence of market divergence across food processing categories; 2) unprocessed items exhibit the highest levels of market integration and the fastest adjustment rates; 3) price differentials for unprocessed items consistently demonstrate nationwide integration; and 4) factors such as geographical proximity, road infrastructure, and the similarity in store density between cities significantly enhance the speed of price convergence toward long-run equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Food prices;Food processing degree;Spatial market integration;Distance |
| JEL: | C33 E31 Q11 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-01 |
| By: | Joseph Ikechukwu Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda Nduka Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Joy Ukamaka Uduji (Enugu State, Nigeria); Steven Emeka Emengini (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Longinus Chukwudi Odoh (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Deborah Patience Okoro (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Chikodili Nkiruka Okafor (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the multinational oil companies’ (MOCs) corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives in Nigeria. Its special focus is to investigate the impact of the global memorandum of understanding (GMoU) on improving gender responsiveness of cassava value chain in Niger Delta regions of Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – This paper adopts a survey research technique, aimed at gathering information from a representative sample of the population, as it is essentially cross-sectional, describing and interpreting the current situation. A total of 780 rural women respondents were sampled across the Niger Delta region. Findings – The results from the use of a combined logit model and propensity score matching indicate that CSR of the MOCs using GMoU model has recorded little but significant success in enhancing rural women participation in the cassava value chain in the Niger Delta. Practical implications - This implies that if CSR interventions are not tailored to enhance opportunities for women, they may contribute towards reducing the participation of women in economic, political and social development and, by extension, damping efforts of reducing poverty and achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the Niger Delta. Social implications – This suggests that MOCs’ CSR interventions in the cassava value chain should consider gender relations to benefit men and women and alleviate household poverty. Originality/value – This research contributes to the inequality debate in the agrifood value chain and inclusive growth literature from the CSR perspective in developing countries and the rationale for demand for social projects by host communities. It concludes that business has an obligation to help in solving problems of public concern. |
| Keywords: | Gender, cassava value chain, corporate social responsibility, multinational oil companies, sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/015 |