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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Birthal, Pratap S.; Hazrana, Jaweriah; Roy, Devesh; Satyasai, KJS |
| Abstract: | Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to sustainable development of agriculture, and consequently to the livelihood of farming communities, and the governments’ efforts to improve food and nutrition security and reduce poverty, especially in countries more exposed to climate risks and dominated by small-scale producers who often lack finance for investment in risk management. During the past two decades, climate finance for agriculture has attracted considerable attention in policy debates, yet agriculture’s share in the total climate finance has remained minimal. Empirical evidence presented in this paper distinctly highlight the role of finance in building resilience of agriculture. These provide a basis for a change in policy stance to emphasize climate finance in investment and credit planning in agriculture, and the need for innovative approaches to deliver finance that is climate sensitive. Climate risks are predicted to be severe in plausible future climate scenarios; hence, the need for climate finance for agriculture cannot be understated. Current level of climate finance for agriculture is not commensurate with its requirement. Today’s investments in climate actions will shape future trajectory of agricultural growth, and its economic and social outcomes. I hope this paper will be useful for policymakers, financial institutions and other stakeholders to take informed decisions on financing agriculture for risk management. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Climate Change, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Risk and Uncertainty, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icar24:344992 |
| By: | Kandpal, Ankita; Birthal, Pratap S.; Mishra, Shruti |
| Abstract: | Research in and for agriculture has significant potential to address the current and future challenges to transforming agri-food production systems as more productive, efficient, and sustainable. In India, most research in agriculture and allied activities is carried out in public-sector institutions. Agricultural R&D, however, remains underinvested. In 2020-21, the country spent about 0.54% of agricultural gross domestic product on research and 0.11% on extension, much less than their corresponding global levels. Nevertheless, there is a strong justification for more investment in agricultural R&D. Every rupee spent on research pays back Rs 13.85, and on extension, Rs 7.40. Hence, by 2030, investment in R&D should be raised to at least one percent of the agricultural gross domestic product. Importantly, it should be accompanied by revamping of the research agenda, considering the likely demand for different food and non-food commodities, the current and future challenges, and opportunities. This study suggests more resources for research on livestock, fisheries, natural resource management, and climate adaptation and mitigation, and bridging the regional R&D gaps. The past is the guide to the future. Investment in R&D made today will decide the future course of agricultural development. The evidence presented in this study are of significant importance to research administrators and policymakers in taking informed decisions regarding investment in agricultural R&D and its prioritization for the smooth transformation of agri-food systems. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icar24:344995 |
| By: | Johannes Sauer; Philipp Mennig; Will Chancellor; Jesús Antón |
| Abstract: | The resilience of farms in a world of increasing climate uncertainties is a growing policy concern on a global scale. Resilience means finding a balance between ensuring adequate preparation to confront shocks, the ability to absorb its immediate impact, and, as part of the recovery phase, adapting and transforming farm practices to a new environment. A dynamic framework developed by OECD to measure these resilience capacities is applied to three case studies: crop farms affected by drought in Australia, and livestock farms impacted by disease outbreaks in France and Estonia. It was found that most farms performed well in only two of the four resilience capacities. Productivity, investment, and technical change are found to be key drivers of most resilience capacities in Australia, while in Estonia marketing contracts facilitated the successful adaptation and transformation of pig farms during the recovery phase. Future research should focus on finding how to better balance the four resilience capacities, prioritising the analysis of policy drivers. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Climate adaptation, Livestock diseases, Transformation |
| JEL: | Q1 Q12 Q18 Q5 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:211-en |
| By: | Hazrana, Jaweriah; Mishra, Ashok K. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of droughts on intra-household food consumption, diet diversity, and nutrition. The study provides a unique and nuanced understanding of how droughts affect the food consumption and nutrition of men, women, and children within a household. We use panel data from a nationally representative survey in Bangladesh. Findings show that after a drought, individuals spend 4.6% less on food and consume 3.4% fewer calories, 3.3% less protein, and 4.7% less fat. However, the effect is not homogeneous across all household members. Women and children, the most vulnerable groups, experience a greater shortfall in food consumption and nutrients than men. Furthermore, droughts lead to a less balanced household diet, characterized by reduced consumption of nutrient-rich animal-source and plant-based foods and increased reliance on cereals. Policymakers could support targeted interventions for vulnerable individuals to access adequate nutrition during climatic stress. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:345099 |
| By: | Naspolini, Giovanna; Libra, Jesse Madden; Cunial, Santiago; Pérez Urdiales, María |
| Abstract: | Water is not only vital for human life but also is a critical economic input. Climate change will likely exacerbate conflicts over the multiple uses of water in Latin America. Adopting a south-south perspective approach, this study compares direct water requirement patterns over time among Brazil, Colombia, and Costa Rica, applying an environmental-extended Structural Decomposition Analysis between 2013 and 2017. While all countries experienced increased water consumption during the period, Brazils and Colombias results suggest gains in water productivity at the national level and for Agriculture. Results also indicate that Exports are the main water consumption driver of Agriculture in Brazil and Costa Rica. The Water and sanitation sector in Colombia experienced a decrease in direct water requirements, which is illustrated by a strong negative intensity effect. In contrast, an expressive positive intensity effect in Costa Rica resulted from a sectoral GDP fall. The findings of this study offer support to sectoral climate adaptation plans in all countries as well as water conservation and sustainable development policies. |
| Keywords: | water;Sanitation;environment;Development;Water footprint;input-output tables |
| JEL: | Q25 Q56 R15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13733 |
| By: | Ulaganathan Sankar (Honorary Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai) |
| Abstract: | The Forest Rights Act 2006 aimed at correcting the historic injustice done to scheduled tribes and other traditional forest dwellers by giving usufruct rights on certain forest resources and associating them in forest management. This paper reviews implementation of the Act and other supportive measures taken by the government towards achieving the goals of carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and increase in livelihood opportunities of the dwellers. This paper argues that if the dwellers services are fully available as guardians of forests, they can generate many external benefits, some are at local level, some at regional level, and a few at global level. Hence, this paper suggests a few additional supportive measures for empowering and incentivizing STs and OTFDs to invest in forest ecosystem assets to achieve these multiple goals. |
| Keywords: | biodiversity, community forestry, eco restoration, forest rights, sustainable development |
| JEL: | Q01 Q23 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2024-262 |
| By: | Moscona, Jacob; Sastry, Karthik |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:159 |
| By: | Roy, Tirthankar |
| Abstract: | The economic emergence of societies in arid and semi-arid tropical regions depended on their ability to extract and recycle water and manipulate the environment for this purpose. India is a prominent example of this process. This pathway to economic growth has significant political and environmental costs. In light of climate change, a key question for the future is: Is tropical development sustainable in this way? The paper answers by drawing on the economic history of the tropical arid regions and a recent literature on climate impact on water resources. |
| JEL: | N50 N55 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:125641 |
| By: | Masayasu Asai; Jesús Antón |
| Abstract: | Ensuring the well-being of farmers, their families, farmworkers, and that of their communities is high on the agenda of governments and policy makers in OECD countries. The quality of agricultural jobs (e.g. working conditions) and quality of life aspects such as environmental quality, health, depopulation of rural areas, isolation, crime, discrimination, and access to knowledge together determine the well-being of those active in the agricultural sector. Relevant policy design has tended to be hampered by serious data gaps. By focusing on different dimensions of well-being, this paper proposes a framework for social issues in agriculture to identify cross-cutting challenges. Seven policy examples, covering diverse social issues such as mental health, developing social connections in isolated rural areas, and inclusiveness of Indigenous Peoples and those with disabilities, confirm the need to look beyond traditional sectoral policies and to address social issues from a broader policy perspective. Only a multipronged approach can successfully remove the barriers that hinder opportunities for all farmers and their communities. |
| Keywords: | Data gaps, Inclusiveness, Rural development, Social sustainability, Well-being |
| JEL: | H7 I13 J81 Q13 Q18 R2 |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:212-en |
| By: | Vashold, Lukas; Pirich, Gustav; Heinze, Maximilian; Kuschnig, Nikolas |
| Abstract: | Minerals are essential to fuel the green transition, can foster local employment and facilitate economic development. However, their extraction is linked to several negative social and environmental externalities. These are particularly poorly understood in a development context, undermining efforts to address and internalize them. In this paper, we exploit the discontinuous locations of mines along rivers and their basins to identify causal effects on agricultural yields in Africa. We find considerable impacts on vegetation and yields downstream, which are mediated by water pollution and only dissipate slowly with distance. Our findings suggest that pollution from mines may play a role in the limited adoption of intensive agriculture. They underscore an urgent need for domestic regulations and international governance to limit negative externalities from mining in vulnerable regions. |
| Keywords: | pollution; agriculture; river basin; mining; earth observation |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:67404185 |
| By: | Michels, Jacob; Zereyesus, Yacob; Beghin, John |
| Abstract: | We compute corrections for sedentary behavior in physical activity levels (PALs) and incorporate them along with corrections for over estimation of basal metabolic rates (BMRs) into threshold caloric intakes, known as Minimum Dietary Energy Requirements (MDERs). Using these modified MDERs, we compute new estimates of food insecure populations using USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model for the 83 countries covered by IFSA for 2023. We compute moderate upward biases in the FAO’s MDERs due to sedentarism of 3.52% or 57.49 kcal a day, leading to an average of 1720 caloric MDER, which translate to reductions in the estimate of food insecure population of 71.3 million in the 83 IFSA countries. With both BMR and PAL corrections, the MDER falls to 1638 kcal on average and the food insecure population estimate falls by 173.6 million. Relative to USDA-ERS’ 2100-calorie threshold estimating 1.056 billion food-insecure, the 1638 kcal per capita per day accounting for BMR and PAL corrections would result in 711.7 million reductions. Robustness checks using a lognormal distribution approach with FAO data confirm similar large responses of food insecure population estimates to the MDER corrections for the same countries. Beyond the correction for systematic upward bias, estimating more precise MDERs will lead to more precise food insecure estimates. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:345098 |
| By: | Alam, Mahim; Kabir, Janesar; Rajia, Sultana; Sen, Topon |
| Abstract: | Market integration serves as an important measure of market efficiency, particularly in relation to pricing efficiency. This paper investigates the nature and extent of market integration in Bangladesh by analyzing the most recent weekly rice market price data from six district markets between May 2020 and June 2023. The findings reveal that the wholesale rice price series are non-stationary at their levels but become stationary after first differencing. A vector error correction model (VECM) is employed following the Johansen-Juselius procedure to assess the co-integrating relationships between the district markets. The negative and statistically significant error correction terms for the Barishal, Chattogram, and Sylhet districts suggest that short-run price adjustments converge toward long-term equilibrium. The results of the VECM indicate a long-term equilibrium relationship between the Dhaka rice market and those in Barishal, Chattogram, Dinajpur, and Khulna. However, in the short run, the estimated coefficients suggest only weak price transmission between district markets within the same week. |
| Keywords: | Rice Market Dynamics;Spatial Transmission of Price; Bangladeshi Rice Economics;Rice Market Connectivity;Bangladeshi Agricultural Markets |
| JEL: | A1 Q0 Q1 Q10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121993 |
| By: | Ufuk Can; Oguzhan Cepni; Abdullah Kazdal; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of climate anomalies on inflation and its subcomponents in Turkiye. Using a dataset spanning January 2003 to February 2024, we employ local projections methods to examine the short- and medium-term impacts of various climate anomalies on inflation indicators, such as headline CPI, food CPI, unprocessed food prices, rent, and producer prices. Our findings reveal that climate shocks significantly influence headline inflation, food prices, particularly unprocessed food prices, and producer prices in the short term, while also affecting rent prices. However, these effects often reverse or diminish in the medium term. We also uncover distinct responses to cold winters versus hot summers, highlighting the asymmetric impact of temperature anomalies. Cold winters tend to create inflationary pressures, particularly on food and producer prices, while hot summers can induce deflationary effects. Additionally, we observe that the impact of wind anomalies on prices is muted, while precipitation shocks primarily affect unprocessed food prices. These results underscore the complex and multifaceted relationship between climate change and inflation, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of these dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Climate anomalies, Inflation, Local projections |
| JEL: | E31 Q54 C22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2412 |
| By: | Pierre Levasseur (SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Séa Rouly; Suneha Seetahul (The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Pacific Islands face challenges of low water accessibility and increasing climate threats posing risks to populations. These challenges are compounded by public health concerns related to poor nutritional outcomes and obesity. Using household survey data from Kiribati, this study contributes to the literature by analyzing the relationship between access to safe drinking water and risky behaviors leading to obesity. The findings reveal a significant negative association between access to a piped water system and purchases of soft and sweet beverages (SSB). Compared to households with a piped water system, those relying on groundwater and rainwater purchase 381 and 406 extra grams of SSB per week, respectively. Thus, improving access to safe water can be a relevant public policy to prevent hazardous beverage consumption and obesity, along with the already documented positive outcomes such policies can have for human health and economic development. |
| Keywords: | water accessibility, nutrition transition, soft drinks, obesity, Small Island Developing States (SIDS). |
| Date: | 2024–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04693637 |
| By: | Marshall Burke; Mustafa Zahid; Mariana C. M. Martins; Christopher W. Callahan; Richard Lee; Tumenkhusel Avirmed; Sam Heft-Neal; Mathew Kiang; Solomon M. Hsiang; David Lobell |
| Abstract: | We study whether the sensitivity of economic, health, and livelihood outcomes to climate extremes has declined over the last half century, consistent with adaptation. Understanding whether such adaptation is already occurring is central to anticipating future climate damages, to calibrating the level of ambition needed for emissions mitigation efforts, and to understanding additional investments in adaptation that could be required to avoid additional damages. Using comprehensive panel data across diverse geographies and outcomes, including data on mortality, agricultural productivity, crime, conflict, economic output, and damages from flooding and tropical cyclones, we find limited systematic evidence of adaptation to date. Across 21 outcomes we study, six show a statistically significant declining sensitivity to a changing climate, five show an increasing sensitivity, and the remainder show no statistically significant change. Our results do not imply that specific documented adaptation efforts are ineffective or certain locations have not adapted, but instead that the net effects of existing actions have largely not been successful in meaningfully reducing climate impacts in aggregate. To avoid ongoing and future damages from warming, our results suggest a need to identify promising adaptation strategies and understand how they can be scaled. |
| JEL: | O13 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32985 |
| By: | Worrawoot Jumlongnark |
| Abstract: | This article explores the challenges and opportunities faced by the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) in Thailand from a microfinance perspective. It examines the role of BAAC as a specialized financial institution in assisting underprivileged households and small businesses in accessing financial services. The study highlights the political exploitation of BAAC for populist strategies and the negative impact of corruption on the effectiveness of its operations. Additionally, it discusses the rice-pledging policy in Thailand, which was driven by political motivations and resulted in significant losses for the government. The article emphasizes the need for sustainable development strategies and decreased political interference to enhance the performance of BAAC and effectively support farmers and the poor in Thailand. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.03157 |
| By: | Sears, James |
| Abstract: | Researchers seeking to identify a causal treatment effect of interest often gravitate toward reduced-form modeling approaches, while those interested in characterizing the structure of demand gravitate toward structural models of the full market environment. In this paper we demonstrate that, rather than operate as perfect substitutes, reduced-form and structural approaches can play a complementary role in icharacterizing market dynamics and policy implications. These opportunities are particularly ripe in regards to questions of food policy and marketing strategy impacts, as researchers frequently must balance the need to fully characterize demand and potential feedback loops with the desire to interpret estimated objects in a causal fashion. We provide an example of the complementary use of mixed empirical methods: first we utilize an event study framework to estimate the changes in alcoholic beverage and non-alcoholic beer purchasing in response to the adoption of county-level COVID-19 stay-at-home policies. Second, we estimate a structural model of differentiated alcoholic beverage products that can provide novel insight into the substitution at play behind the growth of the non-alcoholic beer market. Taken together, the results from these two empirical approaches provide novel insight into recent dynamics in the alcoholic beverage market and carry important implications for future food and beverage marketing strategies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:345096 |
| By: | Armijos-Bravo, Grace |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:80621 |
| By: | Gianni Betti; Francesca Gagliardi; Emanuele Giordano; Daniela Evangelista; Angelo Riccaboni |
| Abstract: | We performed an exhaustive review of the literature on indicators of agri-food quality and safety. Our interest concerned creation of information systems of indicatorsto guide consumer, policy-maker and institutional decisions. Since we found little literature on all such aspects together, we propose an original step-by-step procedure for integrating new technological and methodological systems of statistical indicators for these actors. |
| JEL: | Q18 C81 C13 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:908 |
| By: | Just, David R.; Jiao, Jie |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:345097 |
| By: | Ulaganathan Sankar (Honorary Professor, (Corresponding Author), Madras School of Economics, Gandhi Mandapam Road, Chennai) |
| Abstract: | This paper classifies ecosystem services under 5 groups: at thresholds, provisioning, supporting, regulating and cultural; the first comes under Anthropocene and the last four from MEA. It considers issues raised by ecological economists on sustainable scale, use of marginal analysis, and distributional equity. It stresses the need for monetary valuation for resource allocation decisions and discusses problems in monetary valuation for services in each group. As the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” of governments in solving global environmental problems is not accepted by developed countries now, most developing countries face difficulties in implementing SDGs and enhancing provision of ecosystem services. This paper suggests that a decentralized approach involving local communities can enable eco restoration and achieve SDGs at lower cost to governments. |
| Keywords: | Anthropocene, ecosystems, ecological thresholds, strong sustainability, planetary boundaries, sustainable development |
| JEL: | Q51 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2024-257 |
| By: | Luckeneder, Sebastian; Giljum, Stefan; Maus, Victor; Sonter, Laura J.; Lenzen, Manfred |
| Abstract: | The integration of metals and minerals into global supply chains leads to mining impacts that manifest far from the location of final consumption. To address these distant impacts, new legal frameworks are emerging that require companies to exercise due diligence across their entire supply chains. However, accurately quantifying local mining impacts and tracing them from production to consumption remains challenging. This study examines global flows of forest loss within mine sites from 2001 to 2019, with a focus on final demand in the European Union. By integrating satellite imagery with a multi-region input-output framework, we find that 12% of global forest loss caused by mining is linked to EU consumption, with 89% of these impacts occurring outside EU borders. The study identifies variations in impact intensities across global mining areas, commodities, and European industry sectors, offering actionable strategies and highlighting challenges for responsible material sourcing in consumer and producer regions. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus045:67247598 |
| By: | Jose Garrido (Concordia University [Montreal], Chaire DIALog); Xavier Milhaud (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, Chaire DIALog); Anani Olympio (CNP Assurances, Chaire DIALog); Max Popp (EcoAct France) |
| Abstract: | This book presents an introduction for beginners to climate science from an insurance perspective. The focus is on the measurement of climate change and of its impact on policyholders and their insurers. Climate change presents several challenges for society, endangering food supply and water security, affecting human health, and threatening transportation systems (Dundon et al., 2016) as well as property (Warren-Myers et al., 2018; Miljkovic et al., 2018). It also affects the economy (Pryor, 2017). The consequences of this environmental change are expected to be deep and far-reaching, particularly in insurance sectors such as agriculture, property-casualty, health and life. As a result, climate change can threaten the sustainability of insurance programs, in different ways. First, because the increase in total losses may require hikes in premiums and solvency capital. A precise quantitative assessment of this increase is not yet determined, but it is clear that both recent and future costs are a serious threat; according to Munich Re (2024), losses caused by natural disasters in 2023 reached US250bn, withUS 95 bn of which being insured. Although no disasters of the magnitude of Hurricane Ian occurred in 2023, a fair share of the losses were associated with several severe storms occurred in the US and Europe. These related events are considered as evidence of the global warming trend, with a potential impact particularly on property and casualty insurance (Gupta and Venkataraman, 2024; Golnaraghi, 2021). In this particular insurance sector, Swiss Re (2021) forecasts increased frequency and severity of events due to climate change that will cost 30%-63% more in insured catastrophe losses by 2040. This cost increase could even reach 90%-120% in specific markets, such as China, the UK, France and Germany. Secondly, climate change puts into question some fundamental principles of insurance, such as risk insurability, pooling, diversification, and risk transfer. The literature discusses the possible outcomes and implications for the insurance industry (Charpentier, 2008; Thistlethwaite and Wood, 2018; Courbage and Golnaraghi, 2022). Other, more optimistic perspectives suggest that far from being the victim of climate change the insurance business could find in it an opportunity, through the development of new technical solutions (Rao and Li, 2023; Savitz and Dan Gavriletea, 2019; Wagner, 2022). For now, climate change already has forced the strategic withdrawal of insurers in certain markets in the USA (California, 2023). The general objective of this book is to present an actuarial perspective on the study of climate change and its impact on the insurance industry. Actuaries are experts at measuring and managing risks. The DIALog Research Chair team regroups several members, both from industry and academia, with ample actuarial expertise. Hence it was natural for the DIALog team to tackle this project and explore the impact of climate change on the insurance industry, more particularly in health and life insurance. This study starts by exploring the need for a standardized method to measure climate change. This is crucial in order to compare different regions and periods in a standardised analysis. In recent years the actuarial community has developed actuarial climate indices to measure climate change in an factual, objective and consistent way. First, Chapter 1 reviews the recent scientific literature on the few actuarial climate indices that have been defined so far and extends the existing methodology to calculate an actuarial index for climate data in France. Then Chapter 2 describes how climate science can be used to link a physical climate risk to insurance costs. In particular it focuses on the impact of heat waves on excess mortality. A deterministic and a stochastic model are proposed to link the Heat Index to excess mortality. The chapter includes a frank discussion of the advantages and difficulties with the approach. Finally Chapter 3 further explores the link between extreme temperatures and excess mortality in France. A more technical exposure is used, in order to propose a new mortality forecasting model that includes explanatory terms capturing the correlation between temperature and mortality, as well as the effect of high temperature anomalies. |
| Abstract: | Ce livre présente une introduction pour non-initiés à la science du climat du point de vue de l'assurance. L'accent est mis sur la mesure du changement climatique et de son impact sur les assurés et leurs assureurs. Le changement climatique présente plusieurs défis pour la société, menaçant l'approvisionnement alimentaire et la sécurité de l'eau, affectant la santé humaine, et menaçant les systèmes de transport (Dundon et al., 2016) ainsi que les biens immobiliers (Warren-Myers et al., 2018; Miljkovic et al., 2018). Il affecte également l'économie (Pryor, 2017). Les conséquences de ce changement environnemental devraient être profondes et étendues, en particulier dans les secteurs de l'assurance tels que l'agriculture, les biens et responsabilités, la santé et la vie. Le changement climatique représente une menace pour la durabilité de certains programmes d'assurance, de différentes façons. Premièrement, parce que l'augmentation des pertes totales peut nécessiter des hausses de primes et de capital de solvabilité. Une évaluation quantitative précise de cette augmentation n'a pas encore été déterminée, mais il est clair que les coûts récents et futurs représentent une menace sérieuse ; selon Munich Re (2024), les pertes causées par des catastrophes naturelles en 2023 ont atteint 250 milliards de dollars, dont 95 milliards de dollars étaient assurés. Bien qu'aucune catastrophe de l'ampleur de l'ouragan Ian ne se soit pas produite en 2023, une part importante des pertes était associée à plusieurs tempêtes sévères survenues aux États-Unis et en Europe. Ces événements connexes sont considérés comme des preuves de la tendance au réchauffement climatique, avec un impact potentiel notamment sur l'assurance des biens et des responsabilités (Gupta and Venkataraman, 2024; Golnaraghi, 2021). Dans ce secteur particulier de l'assurance, Swiss Re (2021) prévoit une augmentation de la fréquence et de la gravité des événements due au changement climatique, qui coûterait 30% à 63% de plus en pertes assurées par catastrophes d'ici 2040. Cette augmentation des coûts pourrait même atteindre 90% à 120% dans certains marchés, tels que la Chine, le Royaume-Uni, la France et l'Allemagne. Deuxièmement, le changement climatique remet en question certains principes fondamentaux de l'assurance, tels que l'assurabilité des risques, la mutualisation, la diversification et le transfert des risques. La littérature discute des résultats et implications possibles pour l'industrie de l'assurance (Charpentier, 2008; Thistlethwaite and Wood, 2018; Courbage and Golnaraghi, 2022). D'autres perspectives, plus optimistes, suggèrent que loin d'être victime du changement climatique, le secteur de l'assurance pourrait y trouver une opportunité, grâce au développement de nouvelles solutions techniques (Rao and Li, 2023; Savitz and Dan Gavriletea, 2019; Wagner, 2022). Pour l'instant, le changement climatique a déjà forcé le retrait stratégique des assureurs de certains marchés aux États-Unis (California, 2023). L'objectif général de ce livre est de présenter une perspective actuarielle sur l'étude du changement climatique et son impact sur l'industrie de l'assurance. Les actuaires sont des experts dans la mesure et la gestion des risques. L'équipe de la Chaire de recherche DIALog regroupe plusieurs membres, à la fois de l'industrie et du milieu universitaire, possédant une expertise actuarielle. Il était donc naturel pour l'équipe DIALog de s'attaquer à ce projet et d'explorer l'impact du changement climatique sur l'industrie de l'assurance, plus particulièrement en assurance santé et en assurance vie. Cette étude commence par explorer la nécessité d'une méthode standardisée pour mesurer le changement climatique. Cela est crucial pour comparer différentes régions et périodes dans une analyse commune. Ces dernières années, la communauté actuarielle a développé des indices climatiques actuariels pour mesurer le changement climatique de manière factuelle, objective et cohérente. D'abord, le chapitre 1 passe en revue la littérature scientifique récente sur les quelques indices climatiques actuariels qui ont été définis jusqu'à présent, et étend la méthodologie existante pour calculer un indice actuariel basé sur les données climatiques en France. Ensuite, le chapitre 2 décrit comment la science du climat peut être utilisée pour lier un risque climatique physique aux coûts de l'assurance. En particulier, il se concentre sur l'impact des vagues de chaleur sur l'excès de mortalité. Un modèle déterministe et un modèle stochastique sont proposés pour lier l'indice de chaleur à la surmortalité. Le chapitre inclut une discussion des avantages et des difficultés de l'approche. Enfin, le chapitre 3 explore plus en détail le lien entre les températures extrêmes et la surmortalité en France. Une présentation plus technique est utilisée, afin de proposer un nouveau modèle de prévision de la mortalité incluant des termes explicatifs qui puissent capturer la corrélation entre la température et la mortalité, ainsi que l'effet des anomalies de température élevée. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Actuaries Climate Index™, European actuarial climate indices, Physical climate risk, Geographical grid, Heat waves, Excess mortality |
| Date: | 2024–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684634 |
| By: | Sheldon, Ian; Chow, Daniel C.K. |
| Abstract: | In a forthcoming paper, Chow and Sheldon (2024) conclude that US challenge(s) to Canada’s dairy tariff rate quotas (TRQs), under the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) preferential trade agreement’s (PTA) dispute resolution mechanism, are really a “fuss about nothing”, and no more than a response to lobbying by its dairy industry. However, this conclusion misses the possibility that the United States, in its enthusiasm for using the USMCA mechanism, is revealing a key component of its approach to settlement of trade disputes. In this context, the current paper focuses on answering two related questions: (i) are proponents of reviving the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body acting in the vain hope of securing US support for its reform; and (ii), has the United States irrevocably moved on by creating and using parallel dispute resolution mechanisms in US-led PTAs, that can be used to revolve WTO-type disputes as well as specific PTA disputes? |
| Keywords: | Dairy Farming, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:345095 |
| By: | Kapatamoyo, Musonda |
| Abstract: | This paper explores Artificial Intelligence (AI) 's transformative role in digital transformation and its implications for Africa's socio-economic development. We examine how AI's advanced analytics, machine learning algorithms, and predictive modeling capabilities reshape operational strategies. Case studies elucidate the diverse applications of AI in Africa, including natural resource management such as mining, wildlife conservation, precision agriculture, and water resource management. Examples such as copper deposit discovery in Zambia (Mitimingi & Hill, 2024) and AI-powered wildlife monitoring in Burkina Faso (Vermeulen et al., 2013) illustrate its potential to drive growth, competitiveness, and sustainability across the continent. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302527 |
| By: | Fitzgerald, Jack |
| Abstract: | Moscona & Sastry (2023, Quarterly Journal of Economics) - henceforth MS23 - find that cropland values are significantly less damaged by extreme heat exposure (EHE) when crops are more exposed to technological innovation. However, MS23's 'innovation exposure' variable does not measure innovation, instead proxying innovation using a measure of crops' national heat exposure. A re-examination of MS23's replication data - which permits a close but inexact reproduction of MS23's published findings - shows that this proxy moderates EHE impacts for reasons unrelated to innovation. The proxy is practically identical to local EHE, so MS23's models examining interaction effects between their proxy and local EHE effectively interact local EHE with itself. I document extensive evidence that MS23's findings on 'innovation exposure' are simply artefacts of nonlinear impacts in local EHE, and uncover robustness issues for other key findings. I then construct direct measures of innovation exposure from MS23's crop variety and patenting data. Replacing MS23's proxy with these direct innovation measures decreases MS23's moderating effect estimates by at least 99.8% in standardized units; none of these new estimates are statistically significantly different from zero. Similar results arise from an instrumental variables strategy that instruments my direct innovation measures with MS23's heat proxy. These results cast doubt on the general capacity for market innovations to mitigate agricultural damage from climate change. |
| JEL: | O31 Q10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:158 |
| By: | Sophie Giordano-Spring (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Carlos Larrinaga (Universidad de Burgos); Géraldine Rivière-Giordano (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School) |
| Abstract: | Purpose Since the withdrawal of IFRIC 3 in 2005, there has been a regulatory freeze in accounting for emission rights that contrasts with the international momentum of climate-related financial disclosures. This paper explores how different narratives and institutional dynamics explain the failure to produce guidance on accounting for emission rights. Design/methodology/approach This paper mobilises the notion of field-configuring events to examine a sequence of six events between 2003 and 2016, including four public consultations and two dialogues between standard setters. The paper presents a qualitative analysis of documents produced in this space that investigates how different practices and narratives configured the field's positions, agenda, and meaning systems. Findings Accounting for emission rights was gradually decoupled from climate change and carbon markets, relegated to the research pipeline, and forgotten. The obstacles that the IASB and EFRAG found in presenting themselves as central in the recurring events, the excess of representations, and the increasingly technical and abstract debates eroded the 2003 momentum for regulation, making the different initiatives to revitalise the project vulnerable and open to scrutiny. Lukes (2021) refers to nondecision-making to express that some issues are suffocated before they are expressed. Originality/value The regulation of accounting for emission rights, an area that has received scant attention in the literature, provides some insights into the different narrative mechanisms that, materialising in specific times and spaces, draw regulatory attention to particular accounting issues, which are problematised and, eventually, forgotten. This study also illustrates that identifying interests is problematic as actors shift from alternative positions over a long period. The case examined also raises some doubts about the previous effectiveness of international standard setters in dealing with matters of connectivity between the environment and finance, as is the case for accounting for emissions rights. |
| Keywords: | Emission rights Accounting regulation IASB Field-configuring events Carbon Paper type Research, Emission rights, Accounting regulation, IASB, Field-configuring events, Carbon Paper type Research |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04686904 |
| By: | DIJKSTRA Lewis (European Commission - JRC); JACOBS-CRISIONI Chris |
| Abstract: | Functional Rural Areas describe central market towns and their hinterland. They allow for a better, i.e. more harmonised, comparison of socio-economic indicators. They are created as the rural counterpart of the Functional Urban Areas. Together they cover the entire territory. The methodology to create them is a draft, and feedback is warmly welcomed. This publication summarises the assumptions behind the delineation of Functional Rural Areas, and highlights some of the benefits of using them for statistical analysis. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138561 |
| By: | Rousseau, Lola; Næss, Jan Sandstad; Carrer, Fabio; Amini, Sara; Brattebø, Helge; Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Resource efficiency strategies are key to reduce material use and help limit global warming to below 2°C in 2100. Understanding the role of such strategies at municipal-level requires a localized approach. Here we evaluate a ramp-up of resource efficiency strategies and their associated effects on vehicle usage and climate benefits towards 2050 for 19 individual sub-regions within the Greater Oslo region in Norway. In our scenarios, material stocks increase from 344 megatonnes (Mt) in 2022 to 349-367 Mt in 2050 driven by population growth, with low-end estimate relying on a sufficiency scenario limiting floor area per capita and banning new single-family houses. The sufficiency (SUF) scenario reduces total material consumption until 2050 (48 Mt) with 28% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (66.3 Mt) with continuation of ongoing trends, thereby reducing GHG emissions from material production by 17% (BAU: 12.44 MtCO2-eq, SUF: 10.36 MtCO2-eq). If resource efficiency strategies are combined with rapid material production decarbonization in-line with a 2°C scenario, a 30% reduction in emissions is achievable (8.67 MtCO2-eq). Car ownership rates and traveled distance per capita decrease in the sufficiency scenario compared to 2022 with 6.4%. Assuming the current relationship between settlement characteristics and transport demand, total driving distance fails to decline due to population growth. Limiting the floor-area per capita in residential buildings significantly decreases material demand. Resource efficiency strategies including densification need to be complemented with a rapid decarbonization of material supply and stronger incentives to move away from car driving to maximize climate change mitigation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9ek48 |
| By: | Ekström, Mathias (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sjåstad, Hallgeir (Dept. of Strategy and Management, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Bjorvatn, Kjetil (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | To mitigate global warming, collective behavior change is needed. But which tools should policymakers prioritize: economic incentives, nudges, or a combination? Current evidence from social science provides little direct advice, as it either lacks credible identification of causality or objective long-term behavioral data. Addressing both limitations, we present causal evidence from a two-year field experiment, comparing how a small price incentive and a social norm-nudge affect the recycling behavior of more than 2, 000 households. The results show a large, immediate, and persistent positive effect of incentives on both the quantity and quality of recycling, but no effect of the norm-nudge. However, the price incentive reduced customer satisfaction, unless it was combined with the norm-nudge, suggesting that appealing to norms can make climate incentives more acceptable. |
| Keywords: | economic incentives; nudges; behavior change; norm-nudge |
| JEL: | J01 J12 |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2024_015 |