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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Song, Lei (University of California, Santa Barbara); Frazier, Amy E (Arizona State University); Crawford, Christopher L.; Estes, Anna Bond; Estes, Lyndon |
| Abstract: | Producing sufficient food to meet a growing population while minimizing the ecological impacts of agricultural expansion is a major world challenge. We aim to optimize the spatial allocation of future cropland in a manner that balances agricultural and ecological priorities, and test scenarios to reduce the need for cropland expansion to meet future food demands. We design a spatial trade-off model that linearly aggregates multiple land use objectives with flexibly- assigned weights to identify optimal areas for cropland expansion. We apply this model in Tanzania, where conservation of its biodiverse ecosystems is often in conflict with agriculture, to evaluate how various decision-making factors impact future cropland allocation and the associated ecological impacts. The model considers potential yield of five key crops (maize, paddy rice, sorghum, cassava, and common beans) along with travel time to markets (as an indicator for market proximity), and costs to biodiversity, carbon sequestration and landscape connectivity. Results show that compared to only considering crop yields, a hybrid solution, which equally considers multiple factors in decision-making, reduced travel time to markets by 25.4%, biodiversity loss by 1.4%, carbon loss by 0.8%, and connectivity loss by 27.5%, while only increasing land demand by 2.6%. Furthermore, increasing cropland area usage intensity and expanding the cultivation of high-yield crops can effectively boost food production, with the potential to double the current production only using existing cropland. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4xnwb |
| By: | Gillespie, Jeffrey; Raszap Skorbiansky, Sharon; Law, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | United States’ organic dairy production has grown over the past three decades. This study uses USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey data from 2005, 2010, 2016, and 2021 (along with other USDA data) to examine changes in farm structure, production costs, technology adoption, and challenges facing organic dairy producers. As organic dairy markets evolved (along with regulatory changes in production standards), organic milk production and the number of organic dairy operations increased. The report shows that the growth of organic milk production has differed by U.S. State, with regional differences in farm structure and cost of production. From 2005 to 2021, there have been modest changes in organic dairy farm structure and adoption of technology, with larger farms more likely to utilize advanced technologies and production systems and benefit from economies of scale. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Dairy Farming, Dairy Production/Industries, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:346026 |
| By: | Laborde, David; Olivetti, Elsa; Piñeiro, Valeria; Illescas, Nelson |
| Abstract: | This study identifies food system interventions with high transformational potential for Indonesia by utilizing the MIRAGRODEP a multi-region, multisector computable general equilibrium model to analyze policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. Initiatives such as social safety nets and food stamps can enhance affordability, while repurposing farm subsidies can improve socio-economic sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages that include social safety nets, repurposing agricultural supports, environmental regulation and investment in sustainable production, can lead to substantial GDP growth, poverty reduction, and dietary enhancements. However, each intervention presents distinct trade-offs between economic gains and environmental implications. This analysis underscores the need for a holistic policy approach when trying to achieve multiple sustainability goals. Implementing a blend of policies designed to promote environmental, social, and economic sustainability simultaneously could drive Indonesia towards a sustainable and resilient food system, addressing the complex interplay between economic development, environmental conservation, and improved nutrition. |
| Keywords: | food systems; computable general equilibrium models; policies; social safety nets; sustainable development; agriculture; economic development; nutrition; poverty; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Indonesia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2265 |
| By: | Adjlane Sabah (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions); Khiari Reguia (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions); Mokhnane Tarek (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions) |
| Abstract: | Algeria is seeking to achieve sustainable agricultural development due to its increasing effects in providing the growing food needs of the population and providing job opportunities for current and future generations. .The agricultural sector is the main source of food and also contributes to providing inputs for many industries that depend mainly on agricultural products. It is also a source of hard currency through its ability to achieve a surplus for export, in addition to creating new job opportunities through various projects.The aim of this study is to introduce the state of Oued Souf is rich in natural, human and water resources. It is especially known for producing some agricultural crops such as potatoes, wheat, barley, peanuts and more. It also aims at identifying the most important challenges it faces so that we can suggest a number of recommendations that contribute to addressing these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Desert agriculture sustainable agricultural development constituents obstacles JEL Classification Codes: Q1 Q01, Desert agriculture, sustainable agricultural development, constituents, obstacles JEL Classification Codes: Q1, Q01 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684570 |
| By: | Sophia Baum (Complexity Science Hub Vienna); Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna) |
| Abstract: | India's proposed rice export restrictions, potentially affecting 40% of the global rice supply, may have severe consequences for several African and Middle Eastern countries. Projected losses of up to 304 kg per capita, as seen in the case of Djibouti, pose a significant threat to food security. The indirect effects through production and further trade can impact the availability of a range of secondary products such as meat, eggs, sweeteners, and alcohol. For example, Liberia’s losses over secondary products, excluding rice itself, accumulate to 5.2 kg per capita. While a diverse portfolio of import sources and domestic production can mitigate these losses to a certain extent, it cannot completely eliminate them. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, Rice Embargo, India, Global Trade, African Countries, Middle Eastern Countries, Secondary Products, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:001 |
| By: | Ambler, Kate; Balana, Bedru; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Maruyama, Eduardo; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers must invest in agricultural inputs (i.e., seeds, chemicals, equipment, land, and labor) during the planting season before earning income from the sale of agricultural produce after harvest. Credit can help relax liquidity constraints. In rural Nigeria, access to credit is limited, especially formal credit from financial institutions. Less than a third of households in rural Nigeria report using credit and only two percent of rural households borrowed credit from formal financial institutions (EFInA 2020). The rest is borrowed informally from friends, family, or local money lenders. Credit can take many different forms. For example, credit can take the form of a cash loan, where funds are provided to a borrower to make an investment of any kind. Another common form of credit is when specific goods, for instance agricultural inputs, are provided in advance to a payment. In both cases, the borrower must pay back both the loan amount, and any interest incurred from the loan. We partnered with Crop2Cash, a digital financial technology startup company operating in Nigeria, to test take-up for these two forms of credit. |
| Keywords: | smallholders; farm inputs; income; agriculture; credit; loans; Southern Africa; Western Africa; Nigeria |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:152224 |
| By: | Benfica, Rui; Hossain, Marup; Davis, Kristin E.; Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Azzarri, Carlo |
| Abstract: | Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost†of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; environment; food security; sustainability; true cost accounting; food production; Africa; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Eastern Africa; Kenya; Vietnam |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2269 |
| By: | Winters-Michaud, Clayton P.; Haro, Alfredo; Callahan, Scott; Bigelow, Daniel P. |
| Abstract: | The United States has a total land area of 2.26 billion acres. In 2017, the major uses of land were grassland pasture and rangeland at 659 million acres (29 percent of the U.S. total), forest-use land at 622 million acres (28 percent), cropland at 390 million acres (17 percent), special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas) at 318 million acres (14 percent), miscellaneous other uses (such as wetlands, tundra, and unproductive woodlands) at 197 million acres (9 percent), and urban land at 74 million acres (3 percent). This study presents findings from the most recent (2017) inventory of U.S. major land uses, drawing on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, the U.S. Department of Transportation, the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of the Interior, and various other sources. The data sources are collected for each State to estimate the use of several broad classes and subclasses of agricultural and nonagricultural land over time. National and regional trends in land use are discussed using earlier major land-use estimates dating back to 1945. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:345316 |
| By: | Adong, Annet; Ambler, Kate; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; de Brauw, Alan; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Islam, AHM Saiful; Wagner, Julia |
| Abstract: | Intermediary firms within agri-food value chains operating between the farmgate and retailers typically account for at least as much, if not more, value added as the primary agricultural production sector of the economy, but little is known about how these small and largely informal firms conduct their business. Drawing on a set of innovative surveys implemented amid the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, we describe the financial activities of the firms that transform agricultural produce into food. We document four sets of results. First, across all intermediary actors in our data the overwhelming majority of transactions are cash-based. Second, although many intermediary actors are un-banked, access to financial accounts varies considerably by value chain segment, commodity, and country. Third, while most intermediary actors report using mobile money for personal purposes, especially in Uganda, very few use mobile money to facilitate business transactions. Fourth, although intermediary actors frequently report exposure to risk, very few effectively manage this risk. We conclude by discussing how intermediary agri-food value chain actors represent an underappreciated population for the promotion of new technologies both to improve the stability of the agricultural sector and to improve outcomes among smallholder farmers. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; finance; mobile phones; technology; value chains; Africa; Eastern Africa; Asia; Southern Asia; Bangladesh; Uganda |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2266 |
| By: | Carroll, Carlos; Noon, Barry; Masino, Susan; Noss, Reed F. |
| Abstract: | Effective conservation of old-growth ecosystems, along with their unique biodiversity and climate benefits, requires coordinated actions from the scale of individual trees to broad regions. The US government is currently developing a conservation strategy for old-growth forest on federal lands, and similar efforts are occurring globally as nations implement the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. An effective strategy must include elements at three spatiotemporal scales: immediate restrictions on harvest of old-growth and mature forests and old trees, standards to ensure management activities do not degrade old growth at the stand scale, and longer-term planning for old-growth restoration and recruitment across landscapes. Lessons from previous US forest policy, especially the Northwest Forest Plan, can inform efforts to strengthen each of these three components in the US old-growth conservation strategy. Ecosystem-based standards are needed to ensure protection of sufficient mature forest so that recruitment into the old-growth stage shifts ecosystems closer to historic proportions of old growth. In addition to clarifying existing goals related to ecological integrity, comprehensive old-growth policy must incorporate specific goals for recovering at-risk species based on empirical relationships across scales of biodiversity between forest habitat and species viability that are relevant across varied ecological contexts. Reversing extinction debt and ensuring long-term adaptation potential requires designation of large landscapes anchored by remaining old-growth stands, surrounded by areas managed for restoration of ecological integrity, native biodiversity, and ecosystem services including climate change mitigation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:c7fek |
| By: | Greig, Alastair; McIlory, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines ten comprehensive manure management systems that are considered viable in an NI context to reduce ammonia loss in raw milk production systems. Estimates of their ammonia loss, the cost of the system and the resulting abatement costs are developed to provide a comparison. |
| Keywords: | Dairy Farming, Dairy Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes324:345320 |
| By: | Anna Josephson; Jeffrey D. Michler; Talip Kilic; Siobhan Murray |
| Abstract: | The availability of weather data from remotely sensed Earth observation (EO) data has reduced the cost of including weather variables in econometric models. Weather variables are common instrumental variables used to predict economic outcomes and serve as an input into modelling crop yields for rainfed agriculture. The use of EO data in econometric applications has only recently been met with a critical assessment of the suitability and quality of this data in economics. We quantify the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in EO data in the context of smallholder agricultural productivity. We find that different measurement methods from different EO sources: findings are not robust to the choice of EO dataset and outcomes are not simply affine transformations of one another. This begs caution on the part of researchers using these data and suggests that robustness checks should include testing alternative sources of EO data. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07506 |
| By: | Jana, Arjun; Goli, Srinivas |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts * 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted ‘U-shape’ relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961-2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Population Growth; Agricultural Land; Land-Population Relationship; Dynamic Panel Data Analysis; Spatial Econometrics; Malthusian-Boserupian Debate |
| JEL: | J11 Q15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121803 |
| By: | Caterina Lepore; Mr. Junghwan Mok |
| Abstract: | We assess financial stability risks from floods in the Netherlands using a comprehensive set of flood scenarios considering different factors including geographical regions, flood types, climate conditions, return periods, and adaptation. The estimated damage from each flood scenario is used to calibrate the corresponding macro-financial scenario for bank stress tests. Our results show the importance of considering these heterogeneous factors when conducting physical climate risk stress tests, as the impact of floods on bank capital varies significantly by scenario. We find that climate change amplifies the adverse impact on banks’ capital, but stronger flood defenses in the Netherlands can help mitigate some impacts. Further, we find a non-linear relationship between flood damages and banks’ capital depletion, highlighting the importance of considering extreme scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Physical risk; flood scenario; banking stress test; climate risk analysis |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/197 |
| By: | Ann M. Furbush; Anna Josephson; Talip Kilic; Jeffrey D. Michler |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of livelihood diversification on food insecurity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis uses household panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in which the first round was collected immediately prior to the pandemic and extends through multiple rounds of monthly data collection during the pandemic. Using this pre- and post-outbreak data, and guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the causal effect of livelihood diversification on food insecurity. Our results do not support the hypothesis that livelihood diversification boosts household resilience. Though income diversification may serve as an effective coping mechanism for small-scale shocks, we find that for a disaster on the scale of the pandemic this strategy is not effective. Policymakers looking to prepare for the increased occurrence of large-scale disasters will need to grapple with the fact that coping strategies that gave people hope in the past may fail them as they try to cope with the future. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.02285 |
| By: | Mr. Christian Bogmans; Mr. Andrea Pescatori; Ervin Prifti |
| Abstract: | During the global recession of 2020 food insecurity increased substantially in many countries around the world. Fortunately, the surge in food insecurity quickly came to a halt as the world economy returned to its positive growth path, despite double-digit domestic food inflation in most countries. To shed light on the relative importance of income growth and food inflation in driving food insecurity, we employ a heterogeneous-agent model with income inequality, complemented by novel cross-country data for the period 2001-2021. We use external instruments (changes in commodity terms-of-trade, external economic growth, and harvest shocks) to isolate exogenous variation in domestic income growth and ood inflation. Our findings suggest that income growth is the dominant driver of annual variations in food insecurity, while food price inflation plays a somewhat smaller role, aligning with our model predictions. |
| Keywords: | Food insecurity; inclusive growth; food inflation; inequality; diet. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/188 |
| By: | Elías Albagli; Pablo García Silva; Gonzalo García-Trujillo; María Antonia Yung |
| Abstract: | This paper studies emigration pressures associated with climate change and sheds light on how they could evolve as climate degrades further. We start with a narrative approach focusing on four historical events. We document that severe climate disruption led to significant outward migration in the past, driven by social conflict, violence, and, in some cases, societal collapse. Then, we turn the analysis to the present. Using a regression panel approach for 154 countries between 1990 and 2020, we find a highly significant and nonlinear relationship between climate change and migration, with a U shape around a “temperature optimum.” The nonlinearity is stronger in poorer countries. Indeed, despite tropical climatic zones having experienced the smallest increase in temperature thus far, they exhibit the largest increase in outward migration due to their higher initial temperature and lower GDP per capita (limiting adaptation). Finally, we use the estimated model to project future migration under five IPCC scenarios and for a tipping point scenario (AMOC collapse). We find moderate effects on migration increase under moderate climate scenarios, but that migration would double for tropical areas in the most extreme scenario. In the AMOC collapse scenario, where regions close to the poles will freeze, we find much larger effects, with total outward migration being driven by cold and temperate climate countries. We conjecture that our results constitute a lower bound of the possible effects, given (i) the non-well-captured nonlinearities and (ii) the potential fall in income due to climate damages that limit adaptation. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1019 |
| By: | Restrepo, Brandon J.; Zeballos, Eliana |
| Abstract: | A notable shift toward online grocery shopping is occurring. To examine the prevalence and frequency of online grocery shopping, the methods of receiving groceries purchased online, and the primary motivators prompting U.S. consumers to buy groceries online, this report uses nationally representative data from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s 2022 Eating and Health Module of the American Time Use Survey. The analysis reveals that about one in five individuals who usually do any grocery shopping in their household purchased groceries online at least once in the past month. Shoppers more likely to buy groceries online than their counterparts and who shopped online more frequently were female, ages 15–24, non-Hispanic White, married or partnered, from a household with young children, more educated, income ineligible for SNAP benefits, or frequently did the grocery shopping in their households. Pickup and delivery options were chosen almost equally, and more than two in five online grocery shoppers cited time constraints as the main reason the shoppers chose to buy groceries online. Examining the drivers of online grocery shopping can inform program, policy, and retailer decision making—given the potential for online grocery shopping to improve food access, foster healthier purchases, and alter the food retail landscape. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:346028 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801-1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| Keywords: | international trade, income distribution, geography |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2033 |
| By: | Dardati, Evangelina; Laurent, Thibault; Margaretic, Paula; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and employing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that, as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. In particular, we find that one standard deviation contraction in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle/high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and observe positive and significant origin-and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our findings contribute to understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, conflict, and international migration while offering insights into migration patterns across countries. |
| Keywords: | Migration flows, climate change, conflict, droughts |
| JEL: | C31 F22 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129726 |
| By: | Lakhwinder Singh (Punjabi University, Patiala); Nirvikar Singh (University of California, Santa Cruz, USA); Prakarsh Singh (Plaksha University, Mohali, Punjab) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the state of Punjab’s economy, reasons for its current situation, prospects for growth, and policies to enable that growth. Punjab’s economy is characterized by slow growth, societal challenges, and environmental degradation. We identify four interrelated issues that act as constraints on the Punjab economy. First, driven largely by dependence on the central government’s food procurement policy, and its specific nature, the state remains heavily agricultural in a narrow manner. Second, Punjab’s fiscal situation is constrained in ways that make fiscal policy dysfunctional: related causal factors include the agricultural structure and the state’s political economy. Both physical and soft infrastructure have been negatively affected by the problems in public finances. Third, a combination of regional and domestic politics during an era of liberalization has disadvantaged the state, with existing manufacturing industries declining, and new industries and services not emerging rapidly enough. Fourth, both individual human capital and institutional or organizational capital have either failed to develop, or have deteriorated in some dimensions over recent decades, making Punjab less innovative and less attractive for new investment. The paper argues that prospects for meaningful economic development in Punjab will depend on collaboration between the state and national governments, including fiscal support from the latter to deal with switching costs and accumulated fiscal issues. We also discuss several specific policy areas, including agricultural diversification, industrial development and innovation, cross-border services, and decentralization to the local level. |
| Keywords: | : Punjab, India, growth, development, agriculture, industrialization, public finances |
| JEL: | H70 O13 O14 O15 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:169 |
| By: | Hazarika, Gautam (The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley) |
| Abstract: | Rice and wheat are India's staple cereal crops and there is significant regional variation in the suitability to the cultivation of each. Both are so-called 'plough-positive' crops, whose cultivation is benefited by ploughing. It has previously been argued that the ancient adoption of the plough, a heavy implement better suited to handling by men, was a factor in the evolution of cultural norms prescribing a domestic role for women in society (Boserup, 1970). This study contends that rice is an anomalous plough-positive crop in that its cultivation, highly labor-intensive, has traditionally required much female labor. This, it is argued, may have led to a local loosening of plough culture's strictures against work by Indian women proportional to the local relative, to wheat, suitability to rice cultivation. To distinguish between a cultural effect and the technical effect of the labor-intensivity of rice cultivation, this study considers the workforce participation of urban women, spatially removed from agricultural operations. It is found that the district urban female workforce participation rates in both the 2001 and 2011 Censuses of India significantly increase in the district relative suitability to rice cultivation. Further, the increase in the district urban female workforce participation rate between 2001 and 2011 was significantly more pronounced in districts potentially better suited to growing rice than wheat. In addition, analysis of microdata from the 1999-2000 National Sample Survey of Employment and Unemployment reveals that the urban female propensity to work significantly increases in the district relative suitability to rice cultivation, though, tellingly, only so in the case of natives of the district, those whose culture will have been shaped by the local agro- ecology. Finally, urban females principally engaged in domestic duties are likelier to report that they are required to be so occupied, the compulsion probably cultural in nature, the less relatively suitable the district is to rice cultivation, with this effect too confined to natives of the district. Taken together, these findings suggest that rice cultivation has played a cultural role in Indian women's workforce participation. |
| Keywords: | deep roots of culture, female labor force participation, India |
| JEL: | Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17250 |
| By: | Thilo Nils Hendrik Albers (HU Berlin); Felix Kersting (HU Berlin); Monique Reiske (HU Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Using interwar German agriculture as a case, this paper explores the political cost of debt deflation which we characterize with farmers' leverage ratios. Primary deficits drove their increase during 1924-1928, but deflation pushed them to unsustainable levels during 1929-1932. We construct corresponding exogenous county-level exposure measures and show their effect on economic distress as well as political radicalization. Our results suggest that debt deflation increased the Nazi party's rural vote share by over 8 percentage points relative to a counterfactual baseline scenario and was thus a necessary condition for its rural dominance and ascension to parliamentary power. |
| Keywords: | great depression; weimar germany; nsdap; extremism; debt deflation; economic crisis; |
| JEL: | D72 N13 N54 |
| Date: | 2024–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:511 |
| By: | Esmeralda Arranhado; Lágida Barbosa; João A. Bastos |
| Abstract: | We examine an individual-level poverty measure for Benin using cross-sectional data. Since our measure is defined within the interval [0, 1], we combine fractional regression models and machine learning models for fractions to examine the factors influencing multidimensional poverty measures and to predict poverty levels. Our approach illustrates the potential of combining parametric models, that inform on the statistical significance and variable interactions, with SHapley Additive ex- Planations (SHAP) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) plots obtained from a random forest. Results highlight the importance of addressing gender inequalities in education, particularly by increasing access to female education, to effectively reduce poverty. Furthermore, natural conditions arising from agroecological zones are significant determinants of multidimensional poverty, which underscores the need for climate change policies to address poverty in the long term, especially in countries heavily reliant on agriculture. Other significant determinants of welfare include household size, employment sector, and access to financial accounts. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Poverty; Benin; Fractional regression model; Machine learning; SHAP values; ALE plots. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03432024 |