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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service; USDA National Agroforestry Center; Environmental Defense; Soil and Water Conservation Society |
| Abstract: | [Contents:] Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect -- What Could Happen to Agriculture in the United States as the Climate Changes? -- How Agricultural Producers Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions -- How Producers Increase the Storage of Carbon on Agricultural Lands --What Are the Benefits of These Practices? -- International Climate Change Agreements and U.S. Agriculture -- A Market for Carbon? -- To Learn More About . . . |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:344931 |
| By: | Rabbitt, Matthew P.; Reed-Jones, Madeline; Hales, Laura J.; Burke, Michael P. |
| Abstract: | This supplement provides statistics that complement those in the Household Food Security in the United States in 2023 report (Report No. ERR-337), a research report that presents the primary national statistics on household food security, food spending, and the use of Federal food and nutrition assistance programs by food-insecure households. Additional statistics here cover component items of the household food security measure, the frequency of occurrence of food-insecure conditions, and selected statistics on household food security, food spending, and the use of Federal and community food and nutrition assistance programs. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersap:344962 |
| By: | Jacky Duvil (Université Quisqueya, IDEES - Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Feuillet Thierry (UNICAEN UFR SEGGAT - Université de Caen Normandie - UFR de Sciences Économiques, Gestion, Géographie et Aménagement des Territoires - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, IDEES - Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Evens Emmanuel (Université Quisqueya); Bénédique Paul (AIHP-GEODE - Archéologie Industrielle, Histoire, Patrimoine - Géographie, Développement, Environnement de la Caraïbe [UR6_1] - UA - Université des Antilles, Université Quisqueya) |
| Abstract: | This article assesses the individual vulnerability of 550 farming households, 430 in Haiti and 120 in the Dominican Republic, on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola to the impacts of climate change. This assessment is based on an integrated approach, using socio-economic and biophysical variables. The variables collected for each farm household were grouped into three categories: adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used to develop a vulnerability index for each farm household, enabling them to be classified according to their level of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. A logistic regression model was then used to identify the main factors influencing their vulnerability. The results revealed that on the island of Hispaniola, 33.91%, 32.09%, and 34% of farming households were classified as very vulnerable, vulnerable, and less vulnerable. In Haiti, these proportions were 36.74%, 36.51%, and 26.75%, while in the Dominican Republic, they were 20%, 20%, and 60%. Agricultural households with highly accessible credit (OR = 0.16, p < 0.001) and university education (OR = 0.05, p < 0.001) were relatively less vulnerable to climate change impacts compared to their counterparts. |
| Keywords: | climate change, vulnerability, farm household, island of Hispaniola |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04690866 |
| By: | Fateh Belaïd; Mohammad Aldubyan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The agricultural sector and global food security are facing an increasing number of risks due to climate change, the increasing population size, rising energy and agricultural demands, competing demands for land for biofuel production, and the degradation of soil quality. Between 2001 and 2018, the annual consumption of food and agricultural products increased rapidly by approximately 48%, and there was twofold population growth (WEF 2021). This increase in agricultural demand has also stimulated the demand for energy products, as the agricultural sector relies heavily on specific fuels for heating, machinery, and other activities. Given the consistent increasing trend of the global population, the world will be faced with the need to feed approximately 10 billion people by 2050, or approximately 50% more food than in 2010. |
| Keywords: | Agreement, Allocations, Alternative fuels, Balance |
| Date: | 2024–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2023-mp04 |
| By: | Kishore, P.; Roy, D.; Birthal, P.S.; Srivastava, S.K. |
| Abstract: | Policy supported technology-led intensification of agriculture has led to significant increases in agricultural productivity and food supplies in India. However, of late its negative externalities to natural resources, especially groundwater in semi-arid north-western region comprising the states of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan have become visible. Recognizing this, Punjab and Haryana brought out almost an identical groundwater regulation in 2009 which aligned sowing of water-guzzling paddy crop towards onset of the monsoon to prevent falling groundwater level. This paper reveals reveal that overextraction of groundwater continued even the regulation being in force. This perverse outcome could be due policy offsets such as highly subsidized electric power for irrigation, excessive procurement of paddy at minimum support price, stagnation in investment in major and medium irrigation schemes, and lack of incentives for crop diversification and adoption of water-saving technologies. It suggests a holistic approach for groundwater management, encompassing policies, technologies, incentives, institutions, and regulations. I am sure that policymakers will take due cognizance of this while designing a framework for groundwater governance. |
| Keywords: | Dairy Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamopb:344994 |
| By: | KO Yi-Chun; UCHIDA Shinsuke; HIBIKI Akira |
| Abstract: | This study explores the mechanisms underlying farmers in adapting to climate change, with a focus on the effect of farmers’ age on the relationship between temperatures and crop yields. Using municipality–level data on Japanese rice production between 2001–2018, we find a nonlinear (inverted U–shaped) age effect on the temperature–yield relationship. Farmers in their late 50s exhibit the highest resilience to extreme temperatures, experiencing minimal yield loss, while farmers above and below this age threshold suffer more from extreme temperatures. We also find that active participation of local communities can help retiring and inexperienced farmers mitigate the negative temperature effects. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24069 |
| By: | Rabbitt, Matthew P.; Reed-Jones, Madeline; Hales, Laura J.; Burke, Michael P. |
| Abstract: | This report provides statistics on food security in U.S. households throughout 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement data collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, in December 2023. An estimated 86.5 percent of U.S. households were food secure throughout the entire year in 2023, with access at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life for all household members. The remaining households (13.5 percent, statistically significantly higher than the 12.8 percent in 2022) were food insecure at least some time during the year. Very low food security is the more severe range of food insecurity where one or more household members experience reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns at times during the year because of limited money or other resources for food. In 2023, 5.1 percent of households were very low food secure, an estimate that is statistically similar to the 5.1 percent in 2022. Children and adults were food insecure at times during 2023 in 8.9 percent of U.S. households with children, statistically similar to the 8.8 percent in 2022. In 2023, very low food security among children was 1.0 percent, statistically similar to the 1.0 percent in 2022 and 0.7 percent in 2021. In 2023, the typical food-secure household spent 16 percent more on food than the typical food-insecure household of the same size and household composition. About 58 percent of food-insecure households participated in one or more of the three largest Federal nutrition assistance programs from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP); the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC); and the National School Lunch Program during the month before the 2023 survey. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:344963 |
| By: | Taye, Meron Teferi; Seid, Abdulkarim H.; Tilaye, R.; Tekleab, S.; Mohammed, M.; Berhanu, B. |
| Abstract: | Water is the medium through which most impacts of climate change on people’s livelihoods and ecosystems are transmitted. Climate change can lead to increasing scarcity of water, intensify variability in rainfall and, thereby, river discharge; and exacerbate the severity of flood, drought and heatwave extremes. Reducing climate-induced water scarcity and enhancing climate resilience to water-related hazards requires well-thought-out actions that include water infrastructure development, putting in place adaptive institutional frameworks, and increasingly developing and employing innovations and future-oriented climate and water data and decision support systems. This report is one of the outputs of the study conducted by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) as part of the project Prioritization of Climate-smart Water Management Practices. The aim of the study has been to develop recommendations for addressing two of the critical gaps identified for improving climate resilience of water resources management in Ethiopia, namely, (1) inadequate data and information on key hydrological variables that have led to a lack of recent knowledge on water availability, actual water use, water source types and potentials; and (2) a lack of decision support tools that would provide strategic and operational level information and capacity for risk-based planning and management of water resources. The report is based on an analysis of collected data, information gleaned through stakeholder consultations and a review of existing literature on climate and water data, and decision support tools in use in the Awash River Basin and at national level in Ethiopia. This synthesis report focuses on the technical aspects of climate and water data and decision support tools, while the institutional aspects are presented in Sanchez Ramirez et al. 2024. This study conceptualizes climate-smart water management as having three reinforcing objectives: maximize the goods and services that can be produced from the limited water resources; minimize the impact of climate extremes — floods and droughts at multiple scales; curtail the impact of rainfall variability across scales, including small-scale agricultural producers, and enhance water resources planning and management at the basin scale. Key challenges that have been identified include inadequate spatial coverage of hydrometeorological networks; short and, very often, intermittent river discharge data; almost nonexistent water use monitoring; fragmentation of data and inadequate capacity of skilled personnel. There are a number of ongoing efforts by the Ministry of Water and Energy with the aim of addressing these challenges. Weather forecasts are made regularly by the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute (EMI) with attempts to translate these forecasts into their potential impacts on agriculture, water and health. These forecasts and their translation into sector-specific implications need to be improved to make them actionable at lower spatial scales. There is also a need to improve the interoperability of databases and systems to minimize data fragmentation and ensure timely sharing of data. This report presents a conceptual architecture of improved water and climate data and decision support tools, together with specific recommendations for improving hydrometeorological data collection networks, monitoring of agricultural water use, communication of information across scales and decision support tools. The recommendations are intended to provide input for ongoing discussions on improving climate and water data and decision support tools for climateresilient water resources management in Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Climate Change, Dairy Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmwpb:344852 |
| By: | Editors:; Hanson, Wes L.; Itle, Cortney; Edquist, Kara |
| Abstract: | Excerpts from the Executive Summary: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first version of Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Agriculture and Forestry: Methods for Entity-Scale Inventory in 2014, as directed by Section 2709 of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008. In this updated version, USDA has revised the report to reflect the latest science‐based methods for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals from agricultural and forestry activities. This report has several important purposes, including the following: • Enables landowners and others to estimate entity-scale GHG fluxes and impacts (including fluxes associated with different management practices) using the most accurate science-based methods currently available. • Allows USDA to estimate GHG fluxes from current and future conservation programs and practices and assess the performance of conservation and renewable energy programs using the most accurate science-based methods currently available given agency objectives and available resources. Note that the intensity metrics of GHGs (i.e., emissions per production unit) are not explicitly addressed in this guidance. • Provides a basis for updating USDA’s GHG flux estimation tools, including COMET-Planner and COMET-Farm (see box 1-2). • Informs GHG estimates for other programs. For example, this report may inform emerging methods that underlie voluntary GHG registries, facilitate regional GHG markets, and provide technical inputs for future GHG reporting programs. This report was developed by authors that have expertise in GHG accounting specific to agriculture and forestry. The authors were chosen based on their experience with GHG inventories and accounting methodologies and their professional research experience. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Climate Change, Crop Production/Industries, Dairy Farming, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerstb:344934 |
| By: | Schmidt, Emily; Yadav, Shweta |
| Abstract: | From May to December 2023, IFPRI implemented the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey which was designed to understand rural livelihoods and welfare across different areas of PNG (Schmidt et al., 2024). Given the rural nature of the survey sample, almost all surveyed households depend on their own-farm production (predominantly starchy roots and tubers) to meet daily caloric needs. On average, households reported utilizing about 1.6 hectares of land for agriculture cultivation at the time of the survey. The survey collected a detailed account of the quantity of food types consumed by the household in order to estimate the average caloric intake per adult equivalent. Comparing the estimated caloric intake reported by surveyed households, with a recommended calorie intake suggests that only 45 per cent of individuals in surveyed households meet the recommended daily caloric intake for a lightly active individual. The survey also collected anthropometry data for children under five years of age and found that 36 percent of surveyed children were stunted in their growth. The 2023 Rural Household Survey represents an important effort in collecting a wide breadth of information about rural livelihoods. However, greater investments of in-depth data collection and analysis should be undertaken to examine specific components of PNG household livelihood strategies. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; rural population; livelihoods; welfare; agricultural production; food; anthropometry; stunting |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:15 |
| By: | Nigussie, Likimyelesh; Joshi, Deepa; Tsegaye, B.; Admasu, W.; Abate, N. |
| Abstract: | This research study on gender and water resources management, led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and its partners in Ethiopia, was designed to collect primary and secondary data on how smallholder agricultural producer communities in selected catchments are impacted by and cope with climate change. Our focus was on exploring opportunities and barriers for designing and implementing gender-responsive and climate resilient water resources planning and management interventions that are contextually relevant. The research findings will be further translated into actionable recommendations for gender-responsive decision support tools for climate-smart water resources management. The study, informed by the Gender Empowerment Framework and a qualitative research methodology, analyzed soil and water conservation initiatives and small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions in four districts of the Awash River Basin. These locations were the Kalu and Habru districts from the Upper Awash Catchment in Wollo, and the Ewa and Afambo districts from the Lower Awash Catchment in Afar. These four districts were chosen for their diversity of conservation initiatives and livelihoods. Data were collected from a total sample size of 309 individuals – 288 of whom were smallholder farmers (160 women and 128 men) and 21 were key informants from local government offices – by conducting 96 in-depth interviews, 24 focus group discussions and 21 key informant interviews. The data were analyzed to assess the gender dynamics of productivity, production and practices, and SSI practices, focusing on three key dimensions: resources, agency and institutions. The three key results and recommendations are as follows: First, climate impacts result in diverse outcomes for women (and men). It causes malnutrition in persons with special needs and increases the workload of women and girls, who are predominantly responsible for domestic work. This requires interventions that focus on the needs, priorities, barriers and challenges of these groups, and ensure targeted opportunities in decision-making, access to resources and services, and benefits. Second, deep-rooted sociocultural norms and barriers impact outreach efforts for women and marginalized groups; this includes the effective engagement of these groups in capacity building training programs, and their access to relevant information, entrepreneurial opportunities and linkages across the value chains. Without addressing these barriers, making a sustained impact in terms of gender equality and social inclusion will not be possible. We recommend adopting interventions that address the structural barriers to women’s participation in leadership positions, promoting gender-responsive practices across institutions and building synergy among relevant stakeholders. Third, insufficient institutional capacities among implementing actors present key obstacles to the design and implementation of gender-responsive climate-smart water technologies and practices. Overcoming these challenges necessitates commitment from leaders and the allocation of sufficient resources to establish and enhance institutional systems such as mechanisms for accountability, monitoring and evaluation. Additionally, it entails evidence-based and data-driven research on gender to collate gender and social inclusion challenges. This report presents a synthesis focused on the methodology and key findings of the Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI) study. For further information, the reader is advised to refer to the detailed report prepared as part of the study, which can be accessed by contacting the lead author. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Climate Change, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirp:344851 |
| By: | Joseph, Josiah; Hayoge, Glen; Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude; Dorosh, Paul; Schmidt, Emily; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu |
| Abstract: | Sweet potato plays an important role in the food system of Papua New Guinea (PNG), accounting for over 12 percent of total calories consumed in the country (IFPRI, 2023). Three-quarters of sweet potato production takes place in the highlands where it is harvested throughout the year (Chang et al., 2013). However, the production and consumption of sweet potatoes in PNG faces several challenges, including climate change, pests and diseases, and market access constraints. In particular, a significant decline in sweet potato production due to an El Niño-related drought in early 2024 is a realistic possibility. This memo describes analysis using a partial equilibrium model to estimate the potential effects of a shortfall in sweet potato production on market prices and consumption, including consumption levels for various types of households in the highlands and other parts of PNG. We also discuss policy options for mitigating negative effects on household welfare. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; sweet potatoes; food systems; calories; agricultural production; market prices; consumption; household food security; El Niño; drought |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:12 |
| By: | Arua, Stanley; Gondo, Robert; Kinau, Adrian; Kotto, Aaron; Dorosh, Paul; Schmidt, Emily; Tian, Junyan |
| Abstract: | Coffee is one of Papua New Guinea’s leading agricultural export in value terms, accounting for 156 million USD of export earnings in 2021 (FAOSTAT, 2023), 13 percent of agricultural export revenues and 1.4 percent of total export revenues. The coffee industry is a major source of income for some 2.5 million people, mainly in farm households, and is cultivated in 17 out of 22 provinces (ACIAR, 2021). Coffee exports and incomes are threatened, however, by a number of supply side factors such as ageing coffee trees, outbreaks of coffee berry borer, poor production practices and challenges in reaching markets (i.e. transport and post-harvest handling), as well as by demand-side fluctuations in the world price of coffee (World Bank, 2022; Dorum et al., 2023). This research note first presents an overview of PNG’s coffee sector, including a discussion of production trends and structure of the coffee value chain. We then utilize a simple partial equilibrium model of coffee supply and demand, along with data on coffee production and household consumption from the PNG Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of 2009/10, FAOSTAT and the World Bank, to simulate the impacts of potential production and price shocks on the coffee industry in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Finally, we present an analysis of price movements in recent years and the potential costs and benefits of a price stabilization policy for coffee producers. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; coffee; agriculture; income; households |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:14 |
| By: | Ana Rosidha Tamyis; Widjajanti Isdijoso; Sirojuddin Arif; Akhmad Ramadhan Fatah |
| Keywords: | food security, nutrition, stunting |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:2388 |
| By: | Rajiv, Sharanya; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) is applied to panel household survey data from 2007, 2009, and 2011 in Tajikistan to investigate the causal impact of household resilience on food security in the presence of coping strategies. Key findings • Three significant factors define household resilience capacity: access to basic services, including affordable energy supply; assets; and social safety nets. The latter two factors underscore the importance of formal and informal transfers as effective responses when shocks intensify. • Coping strategies allow households to quickly adjust their behavior to adapt to shocks in the short-term, potentially enhancing their overall resilience in the long-term. • Resilience capacity at a given point in time enhances households’ future food security. Households with higher resilience capacity are likely to have a higher household food expenditure share (HFES) and less likely to face loss of food expenditure share, particularly due to the protective effect of resilience when shocks intensify. • While households with an older head have higher food expenditure share, households with a male head and/or located in rural areas are less likely to face a worsening household food expenditure share. • As household size increases, the household food expenditure share initially decreases but eventually increases at a gradual pace. Conversely, as size increases, households are initially less likely to experience loss of HFES, but this likelihood eventually increases. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; resilience; food security; energy consumption; social safety nets; assets; households; financial institutions |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:145254 |
| By: | Gimiseve, Harry; Miamba, Nelson; Na’ata, Bartholomew; Dorosh, Paul; Schmidt, Emily; Yadav, Shweta |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Papua New Guinea introduced a partial ban on poultry imports from Australia and Asian countries (representing about 70 percent of total PNG poultry imports) in response to the biosecurity threat posed by Avian Influenza (bird flu). Such a restriction on supply has the potential to lead to sharp price increases, steep reductions in household consumption and greater food insecurity. This memo presents an overview of PNG’s poultry sector and describes an analysis of the ef fects of these trade restrictions on poultry prices, production and consumption using a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s poultry sector. This new analysis builds on earlier work (Dorosh and Schmidt, 2023) that explored the implications of a total ban on poultry imports, by simulating the impacts of a partial poultry ban, including the effects on various household groups within PNG. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; poultry; imports; biosecurity; avian influenza; supply; prices; household consumption; food security; trade |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:13 |
| By: | Rajiv, Sharanya; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) is applied to panel household survey data from 2007, 2009, and 2011 in Tajikistan to investigate the causal impact of household resilience on food security in the presence of coping strategies. Key findings • Three significant factors define household resilience capacity: access to basic services, including affordable energy supply; assets; and social safety nets. The latter two factors underscore the importance of formal and informal transfers as effective responses when shocks intensify. • Coping strategies allow households to quickly adjust their behavior to adapt to shocks in the short-term, potentially enhancing their overall resilience in the long-term. • Resilience capacity at a given point in time enhances households’ future food security. Households with higher resilience capacity are likely to have a higher household food expenditure share (HFES) and less likely to face loss of food expenditure share, particularly due to the protective effect of resilience when shocks intensify. • While households with an older head have higher food expenditure share, households with a male head and/or located in rural areas are less likely to face a worsening household food expenditure share. • As household size increases, the household food expenditure share initially decreases but eventually increases at a gradual pace. Conversely, as size increases, households are initially less likely to experience loss of HFES, but this likelihood eventually increases. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; resilience; food security; energy consumption; social safety nets; assets; households; financial institutions |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:145254t |
| By: | El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of agricultural exports and CO2 emissions on economic growth in 78 high-income countries from 2004 to 2023. Using a robust econometric framework that includes fixed-effects and random-effects models, the research finds that agricultural exports positively influence economic growth by generating revenue and enhancing competitiveness, while CO2 emissions negatively affect growth due to the associated environmental costs. The analysis, supported by the Hausman test and panel data techniques, highlights the need for balanced policy interventions that promote agricultural export growth while mitigating CO2 emissions. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to achieve sustainable economic development by integrating environmental considerations into economic strategies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Exports, CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Static Gravity Model, High-Income-Countries. |
| JEL: | F11 F14 O47 Q17 Q18 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121888 |
| By: | Joseph Ikechukwu Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda Nduka Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Justitia Odinaka Nnabuko (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Geraldine Egondu Ugwuonah (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Josaphat Uchechukwu Onwumere (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the multinational oil companies’ (MOCs) corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives in Nigeria. Its special focus is to investigate the impact of the global memorandum of understanding (GMoU) on mainstreaming gender sensitivity in cash crop market supply chains in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Design/ methodology/ approach – This paper adopts an explanatory research design, with a mixed method to answer the research questions and test the hypotheses. A total of 1200 rural women respondents were sampled across the Niger Delta region. Findings - Results from the use of a combined logit model and propensity score matching indicate a significant relationship between GMoU model and mainstreaming gender sensitivity in cash crop market supply chains in the Niger Delta. Research limitations/implications – This study implies that MOCs’ CSR intervention that improve women’s access to land and encourage better integration of food markets through improved roads and increased mobile networks, would enable women to engage in cash crop production. Originality/ value – This research contributes to gender debate in agricultural value chain from a CSR perspective in developing countries and rational for demands for social projects by host communities. It concludes that business has an obligation to help in solving problems of public concern. |
| Keywords: | Gender, cash crop market, supply chains, corporate social responsibility, multinational oil companies, sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/026 |
| By: | Jose, Anu |
| Abstract: | How do income shocks affect intra-household expenditure patterns in agricultural economies? Using rainfall data and household panel data, with responses from both spouses, from rural Ethiopia, we show that a negative household level income shock significantly reduces female expenditures relative to male expenditures (31.4% greater reduction). We specifically explore the channel of female and male labour supply as an explanation behind the observed differentiated impacts on spousal consumption. We find evidence that engaging in off-farm employment provides women with an independent income and allows them to smooth their expenditures during farm income shock. We also find evidence that the wife’s involvement in managing and controlling the household farm, measured as her time spent on the farm relative to the husband, negates the shock-induced gender differential in expenditures. Together, these results highlight gender-specific impacts of household income shocks on consumption and the role female economic opportunities play in negating intra-household impacts of such household shocks. |
| Keywords: | Income shocks, gender, intrahousehold allocation, labour supply, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121873 |
| By: | Charles M. Kahn; Ahyan Panjwani; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we introduce a model to study the interaction between insurance and banking. We build on the Federal Crop Insurance Act of 1980, which significantly expanded and restructured the decades-old federal crop insurance program and adverse weather shocks—over-exposure of crops to heat and acute weather events—to investigate some insights from our model. Banks increased lending to the agricultural sector in counties with higher insurance coverage after 1980, even when affected by adverse weather shocks. Further, while they increased risky lending, they were sufficiently compensated by insurance such that their overall risk did not increase meaningfully. We discuss the implications of our results in the light of potential changes to insurance availability as a consequence of global warming. |
| Keywords: | Climate risk; Insurance; Bank lending; Financial Stability |
| JEL: | Q54 G22 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-67 |
| By: | Jean-Éric Pelet (IAE - IAE AMIENS); Bonnie Canziani (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Greensboro, USA); Nic Terblanche (Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | ◦Purpose Teaching wine tasting online is challenging, even given the curated digital tools of the Wine & Spirit Education Trust, a highly renowned online wine certification system is used. This paper initially explores wine experts' opinions about online wine education and subsequently examines the feasibility of customizing wine appreciation lexicons to Chinese learners. ◦Design/methodology/approach A two-study multimethod approach was adopted. Study 1, a two-stage Delphi study, was conducted with seventeen wine experts representing a number of countries, using a mix of closed/open-ended questions in an online survey. Data was collected in a market study in Study 2, conducted at agricultural markets in Thailand (pilot test) and China. Dialogues with market sellers were undertaken, evoking mental imagery of wine descriptors to explore the relevance of traditional versus local aromas and flavors to describe wine. ◦Findings Findings concentrate on three main areas: general advantages/disadvantages of online wine education, reactions towards asynchronous/synchronous methods of wine tasting, and lastly, feasibility of customizing a wine appreciation lexicon for Chinese learners. ◦Originality The article presents novel insights into the role of online wine education in China. |
| Keywords: | China, Delphi study, Learning management systems, Online wine tasting evaluation, WSET certification, Sensorial marketing China Delphi study Market study Learning management systems Online wine tasting evaluation Sensorial marketing WSET certification, Sensorial marketing China, Market study, Sensorial marketing, China Delphi study Market study Learning management systems Online wine tasting evaluation Sensorial marketing WSET certification alcohol consumption in emerging markets, WSET certification alcohol consumption in emerging markets |
| Date: | 2024–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04670360 |
| By: | Zachary Brown |
| Abstract: | Effective waste management policies are critical for addressing environmental issues ranging from climate change to pollution. This report uses new survey data to provide evidence on the most important factors in determining key waste-related outcomes at the household level. Results show that providing collection services is critical in supporting household waste prevention efforts and that charging schemes for mixed waste can play an important complementary role in supporting sustainable waste management. Based on a discrete choice experiment, most households are shown to be willing to pay a price premium for products with sustainable packaging, but at the same time, around a third of households would require a price discount in order to opt for such products. Taken together, findings from the analysis show that waste policies play an important role in stimulating demand for sustainable consumption. |
| JEL: | D1 D12 D91 Q53 C25 |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:249-en |
| By: | Yan-Hong Yang; Ying-Hui Shao; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the dynamic spillovers among the crude oil, carbon emission allowance, climate change, and agricultural markets. Adopting a novel $R^2$ decomposed connectedness approach, our empirical analysis reveals several key findings. The overall TCI dynamics have been mainly dominated by contemporaneous dynamics rather than the lagged dynamics. We also find climate change has significant spillovers to other markets. Moreover, there are heterogeneous spillover effects among agricultural markets. Specially, corn is the biggest risk contributor to this system, while barley is the major risk receiver of shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.09669 |
| By: | Lieke, Sophie-Dorothe; Adhi, Andriyono Kilat |
| Abstract: | While consumers in palm oil-importing countries mainly encounter palm oil as an ingredient, consumers in palm oil-producing nations additionally rely on it as their primary cooking oil. Using focus group discussions across low, middle- and high-income groups (10 groups, n=81), this paper considers underrepresented consumer perspectives by examining how the situational context in urban Indonesia influences the significance of palm oil and its consumption patterns. Palm oil catalyzes cultural practices, ensures food security and contributes to income generation. We identify perceived structural and cultural barriers inhibiting consumer-driven and local demand for more sustainable palm oil, and importantly who in consumers’ eyes carry the responsibility and power to materialise these changes. This ensures that the call for improved food sustainability is not unilateral, but that action is tailored and administered at appropriate levels. Nonetheless, challenges persist as for Indonesians palm oil truly serves as so much more than just an ingredient. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:344920 |
| By: | Coppens, Léo; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank |
| Abstract: | Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide key inputs to decision-makers on economically efficient climate policies, and technical change is one of the key assumptions in any IAM that estimates mitigation costs. We conduct a systematic survey of how technical change is currently represented in the main IAMs and find that a diversity of approaches continues to exist. This makes it important to conduct an up-to-date assessment of what difference technical change makes to IAM results. Here we attempt such an assessment, using an analytical IAM with a reduced-form representation of technical change, which we can calibrate on the relationship between abatement costs and the timing of abatement in 109 IAM scenarios from two major databases. We first show in theory how a range of technical-change mechanisms can be adequately captured in a reduced-form model, in which the key difference is whether technical change is a function of time, i.e., exogenous, or cumulative past emissions abatement, i.e., endogenous. We then derive analytical and quantitative results on the effect of technical change on optimal climate policy, for both cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness policy problems. Under cost-benefit analysis, technical change has a quantitatively large, negative effect on long-run emissions and temperatures. The effect on carbon prices differs markedly depending on whether technical change is exogenous or endogenous, and whether clean technology deployment is incentivised by carbon prices or a dedicated deployment subsidy. Under cost-effectiveness analysis, technical change has a small effect on transient emissions and temperatures, but it has a large, negative effect on carbon prices almost irrespective of the policy instruments available. We make several practical recommendations for how IAMs can better incorporate TC, particularly when facing computational constraints. |
| Keywords: | integrated assessment models; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; induced innovation; technical change |
| JEL: | C61 O30 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124548 |
| By: | Wear, David N. (Resources for the Future); Coulston, John W. |
| Abstract: | Much of the United States is heavily forested, and these forests support the world’s largest and most diverse wood products sector while providing several other ecosystem services. Forest management in the form of timber harvesting and reforestation determines the overall sustainability of all service values. We use remeasured forest inventory plots to define harvest rates and intensities and estimate comparable economic harvest choice and tree-planting models for all subregions and ownership groups of the United States. Annual harvest rates range from near zero in the southern Rockies to 3.8 percent of forest plots in the South-Central region. We test hypotheses regarding the economic rationale of harvest choice and find that all regions and ownerships except public ownerships in the Pacific Coast region are responsive to changes in timber prices. We estimate regional timber supply equations using Monte Carlo simulations of harvest choices applied to the plots constituting the current inventory. This approach to supply uniquely accounts for not only the quantity of standing biomass but also the detailed composition of inventory. Timber supply is shown to be more responsive to sawtimber prices than pulpwood prices and is mostly inelastic (one-period price elasticities |
| Date: | 2024–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-09 |
| By: | Guerrero Compeán, Roberto; Zegarra Méndez, Eduardo; Lacambra Ayuso, Sergio |
| Abstract: | Strengthened governance is crucial to reduce economic risks associated with disasters, but little is known about its impact. We combine a new dataset on disaster risk management governance for 26 countries from the Latin America and Caribbean region with annual information on economic losses resulting from disasters between 1980 and 2016. To account for endogenous disaster risk management (DRM) governance processes, we exploit the fact that changes in DRM regulatory frameworks affect a country's capacity for disaster risk identification and reduction to provide instrumental variable estimates of their impact. We find that disasters cause substantial economic losses and that a more robust governance for disaster risk resilience to economic losses reduces the expected economic toll caused by natures shocks. Our estimates suggest that the improvement of DRM governance in Latin America and the Caribbean mitigate the economic toll of disasters, especially in a context where climate change leads to the occurrence of more frequent and severe natural hazards across the region. |
| Keywords: | Disaster Risk Resilience;governance;economic losses;Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | O54 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13659 |
| By: | Gagliardi, Nicola; Grinza, Elena; Rycx, François |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of rising temperatures on firm productivity using longitudinal firm-level balance-sheet data from private sector firms in 14 European countries, combined with detailed weather data, including temperature. We begin by estimating firms' total factor productivity (TFP) using control-function techniques. We then apply multiple-way fixed-effects regressions to assess how higher temperature anomalies affect firm productivity - measured via TFP, labor productivity, and capital productivity. Our findings reveal that global warming significantly and negatively impacts firms' TFP, with the most adverse effects occurring at higher anomaly levels. Labor productivity declines markedly as temperatures rise, while capital productivity remains unaffected - indicating that TFP is primarily affected through the labor input channel. Our moderating analyses show that firms involved in outdoor activities, such as agriculture and construction, are more adversely impacted by increased warming. Manufacturing, capital-intensive, and blue-collar-intensive firms, compatible with assembly-line production settings, also experience significant productivity declines. Geographically, the negative impact is most pronounced in temperate and mediterranean climate areas, calling for widespread adaptation solutions to climate change across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Global warming, Firm productivity, Total factor productivity (TFP), Semiparametric methods to estimate production functions, Longitudinal firm-level data |
| JEL: | D24 J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1485 |
| By: | Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria); Olorunfemi Y. Alimi (Lead City University, Ibadan, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The research investigates the relationship between intelligence quotient (IQ) and environmental degradation, aiming to understand how cognitive abilities influence environmental outcomes across different nations and time periods. The objective is to examine the impact of intelligence quotient (IQ) on environmental indicators such as carbon emissions, ecological demand, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), seeking insights to inform environmental policy and stewardship. The study utilizes statistical techniques including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), and Iteratively Weighted Least Squares (IWLS) to analyze data from 147 nations over the years 2000 to 2017. These methods are applied to explore the relationship between IQ and environmental metrics while considering other relevant variables. The findings reveal unexpected positive associations between human intelligence quotient and carbon emissions, as well as ecological demand, challenging conventional notions of "delay discounting." Additionally, variations in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis are identified across different pollutants, highlighting the roles of governance and international commitments in mitigating emissions. The study concludes by advocating for the adoption of a "delay discounting culture" to address environmental challenges effectively. It underscores the complex interactions between intelligence, governance, and population dynamics in shaping environmental outcomes, emphasizing the need for targeted policies to achieve sustainability objectives. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; intelligence quotient; population; output; carbon emission; EKC, World |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 Q50 I20 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/017 |
| By: | Reimer, Matthew N.; Rogers, Anthony; Sanchirico, James (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is expected to increase short-run shocks and extreme events in oceanic conditions. Fishery managers are considering how to design climate-ready systems that enable fishers and fishing communities to adapt to these events without jeopardizing the long-run sustainability of the ocean ecosystem. This paper highlights a suite of potential policy options already employed by fishery managers worldwide. Although these options have been designed to address unique conditions in particular settings, it is valuable to understand whether and how they might be extrapolated to other settings to increase fishers’ adaptive capacity. We take a first-principles approach by considering what constitutes a fishery and then discussing how managers can increase adaptive capacity across internal and external margins conditional on the fishery definition. We contribute to the literature on climate-ready fisheries by expanding the discussion on adaptive capacity to include both internal and external margins, whereas the literature has focused on external margins for reducing barriers to entry. We also discuss the scientific and political economy challenges and trade-offs of introducing adaptive capacity into the US fishery management system. Ultimately, the benefits of doing so must be weighed against the risks of compromising a highly prescriptive system critical for achieving fishery sustainability. |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-06 |
| By: | Sylvain Barone (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Stéphane Ghiotti (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | An important evolution has occurred in local water management since 2014 with the so-called Gemapi reform (management of aquatic environments and flood prevention) and its deployment at the local level. This reform upsets the balance between institutions and redistributes the cards between the various actors involved in this management, especially between the inter-municipalities and the watershed institutions. The objective of this paper is to better understand the modalities, the scope and the meaning of these reconfigurations, based on a case study of the Montpellier area. To do this, it proposes to analyze how the Gemapi reform was implemented, by placing this process in a specific local context and management trajectory. Two main lessons emerge: a lack of clarification of roles; a trend towards the affirmation of inter-municipalities and the weakening of watershed institutions, some of the implications of which we will mention. |
| Abstract: | Une évolution importante est intervenue dans la gestion locale de l'eau à partir de 2014 avec la réforme dite Gemapi (pour « gestion des milieux aquatiques et prévention contre les inondations ») et son déploiement aux échelles locales. Cette réforme bouscule les équilibres entre institutions et redistribue les cartes entre les différents acteurs impliqués dans cette gestion, plus particulièrement entre les intercommunalités à fiscalité propre et les syndicats de bassin-versant. L'objectif de ce texte est, à partir d'une étude de cas à l'échelle de l'aire métropolitaine montpelliéraine, de mieux saisir les modalités, la portée et le sens de ces reconfigurations. Pour cela, il propose d'analyser comment a été mise en œuvre la réforme Gemapi , en inscrivant ce processus dans un contexte local et une trajectoire de gestion bien spécifiques. Il en ressort deux principaux enseignements : une absence de clarification des rôles ; une tendance à l'affirmation des intercommunalités à fiscalité propre et à l'affaiblissement des syndicats de bassin-versant, dont nous évoquerons quelques-unes des implications. |
| Keywords: | Gemapi, water, governance, inter-municipality, watershed institutions, Montpellier, gouvernance, intercommunalités, syndicats de bassin-versant, eau |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04193775 |
| By: | José Garrido (Concordia University [Montreal], Chaire DIALog); Xavier Milhaud (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CNP - Chaire DIALog); Anani Olympio (CNP Assurances); Max Popp (EcoAct France) |
| Abstract: | This book presents an introduction for beginners to climate science from an insurance perspective. The focus is on the measurement of climate change and of its impact on policyholders and their insurers. Climate change presents several challenges for society, endangering food supply and water security, affecting human health, and threatening transportation systems (Dundon et al., 2016) as well as property (Warren-Myers et al., 2018; Miljkovic et al., 2018). It also affects the economy (Pryor, 2017). The consequences of this environmental change are expected to be deep and far-reaching, particularly in insurance sectors such as agriculture, property-casualty, health and life. As a result, climate change can threaten the sustainability of insurance programs, in different ways. First, because the increase in total losses may require hikes in premiums and solvency capital. A precise quantitative assessment of this increase is not yet determined, but it is clear that both recent and future costs are a serious threat; according to Munich Re (2024), losses caused by natural disasters in 2023 reached US$ 250 bn, with US$ 95 bn of which being insured. Although no disasters of the magnitude of Hurricane Ian occurred in 2023, a fair share of the losses were associated with several severe storms occurred in the US and Europe. These related events are considered as evidence of the global warming trend, with a potential impact particularly on property and casualty insurance (Gupta and Venkataraman, 2024; Golnaraghi, 2021). In this particular insurance sector, Swiss Re (2021) forecasts increased frequency and severity of events due to climate change that will cost 30%-63% more in insured catastrophe losses by 2040. This cost increase could even reach 90%-120% in specific markets, such as China, the UK, France and Germany. Secondly, climate change puts into question some fundamental principles of insurance, such as risk insurability, pooling, diversification, and risk transfer. The literature discusses the possible outcomes and implications for the insurance industry (Charpentier, 2008; Thistlethwaite and Wood, 2018; Courbage and Golnaraghi, 2022). Other, more optimistic perspectives suggest that far from being the victim of climate change the insurance business could find in it an opportunity, through the development of new technical solutions (Rao and Li, 2023; Savitz and Dan Gavriletea, 2019; Wagner, 2022). For now, climate change already has forced the strategic withdrawal of insurers in certain markets in the USA (California, 2023). The general objective of this book is to present an actuarial perspective on the study of climate change and its impact on the insurance industry. Actuaries are experts at measuring and managing risks. The DIALog Research Chair team regroups several members, both from industry and academia, with ample actuarial expertise. Hence it was natural for the DIALog team to tackle this project and explore the impact of climate change on the insurance industry, more particularly in health and life insurance. This study starts by exploring the need for a standardized method to measure climate change. This is crucial in order to compare different regions and periods in a standardised analysis. In recent years the actuarial community has developed actuarial climate indices to measure climate change in an factual, objective and consistent way. First, Chapter 1 reviews the recent scientific literature on the few actuarial climate indices that have been defined so far and extends the existing methodology to calculate an actuarial index for climate data in France. Then Chapter 2 describes how climate science can be used to link a physical climate risk to insurance costs. In particular it focuses on the impact of heat waves on excess mortality. A deterministic and a stochastic model are proposed to link the Heat Index to excess mortality. The chapter includes a frank discussion of the advantages and difficulties with the approach. Finally Chapter 3 further explores the link between extreme temperatures and excess mortality in France. A more technical exposure is used, in order to propose a new mortality forecasting model that includes explanatory terms capturing the correlation between temperature and mortality, as well as the effect of high temperature anomalies. |
| Abstract: | Ce livre présente une introduction pour non-initiés à la science du climat du point de vue de l'assurance. L'accent est mis sur la mesure du changement climatique et de son impact sur les assurés et leurs assureurs. Le changement climatique présente plusieurs défis pour la société, menaçant l'approvisionnement alimentaire et la sécurité de l'eau, affectant la santé humaine, et menaçant les systèmes de transport (Dundon et al., 2016) ainsi que les biens immobiliers (Warren-Myers et al., 2018; Miljkovic et al., 2018). Il affecte également l'économie (Pryor, 2017). Les conséquences de ce changement environnemental devraient être profondes et étendues, en particulier dans les secteurs de l'assurance tels que l'agriculture, les biens et responsabilités, la santé et la vie. Le changement climatique représente une menace pour la durabilité de certains programmes d'assurance, de différentes façons. Premièrement, parce que l'augmentation des pertes totales peut nécessiter des hausses de primes et de capital de solvabilité. Une évaluation quantitative précise de cette augmentation n'a pas encore été déterminée, mais il est clair que les coûts récents et futurs représentent une menace sérieuse ; selon Munich Re (2024), les pertes causées par des catastrophes naturelles en 2023 ont atteint 250 milliards de dollars, dont 95 milliards de dollars étaient assurés. Bien qu'aucune catastrophe de l'ampleur de l'ouragan Ian ne se soit pas produite en 2023, une part importante des pertes était associée à plusieurs tempêtes sévères survenues aux États-Unis et en Europe. Ces événements connexes sont considérés comme des preuves de la tendance au réchauffement climatique, avec un impact potentiel notamment sur l'assurance des biens et des responsabilités (Gupta and Venkataraman, 2024; Golnaraghi, 2021). Dans ce secteur particulier de l'assurance, Swiss Re (2021) prévoit une augmentation de la fréquence et de la gravité des événements due au changement climatique, qui coûterait 30% à 63% de plus en pertes assurées par catastrophes d'ici 2040. Cette augmentation des coûts pourrait même atteindre 90% à 120% dans certains marchés, tels que la Chine, le Royaume-Uni, la France et l'Allemagne. Deuxièmement, le changement climatique remet en question certains principes fondamentaux de l'assurance, tels que l'assurabilité des risques, la mutualisation, la diversification et le transfert des risques. La littérature discute des résultats et implications possibles pour l'industrie de l'assurance (Charpentier, 2008; Thistlethwaite and Wood, 2018; Courbage and Golnaraghi, 2022). D'autres perspectives, plus optimistes, suggèrent que loin d'être victime du changement climatique, le secteur de l'assurance pourrait y trouver une opportunité, grâce au développement de nouvelles solutions techniques (Rao and Li, 2023; Savitz and Dan Gavriletea, 2019; Wagner, 2022). Pour l'instant, le changement climatique a déjà forcé le retrait stratégique des assureurs de certains marchés aux États-Unis (California, 2023). L'objectif général de ce livre est de présenter une perspective actuarielle sur l'étude du changement climatique et son impact sur l'industrie de l'assurance. Les actuaires sont des experts dans la mesure et la gestion des risques. L'équipe de la Chaire de recherche DIALog regroupe plusieurs membres, à la fois de l'industrie et du milieu universitaire, possédant une expertise actuarielle. Il était donc naturel pour l'équipe DIALog de s'attaquer à ce projet et d'explorer l'impact du changement climatique sur l'industrie de l'assurance, plus particulièrement en assurance santé et en assurance vie. Cette étude commence par explorer la nécessité d'une méthode standardisée pour mesurer le changement climatique. Cela est crucial pour comparer différentes régions et périodes dans une analyse commune. Ces dernières années, la communauté actuarielle a développé des indices climatiques actuariels pour mesurer le changement climatique de manière factuelle, objective et cohérente. D'abord, le chapitre 1 passe en revue la littérature scientifique récente sur les quelques indices climatiques actuariels qui ont été définis jusqu'à présent, et étend la méthodologie existante pour calculer un indice actuariel basé sur les données climatiques en France. Ensuite, le chapitre 2 décrit comment la science du climat peut être utilisée pour lier un risque climatique physique aux coûts de l'assurance. En particulier, il se concentre sur l'impact des vagues de chaleur sur l'excès de mortalité. Un modèle déterministe et un modèle stochastique sont proposés pour lier l'indice de chaleur à la surmortalité. Le chapitre inclut une discussion des avantages et des difficultés de l'approche. Enfin, le chapitre 3 explore plus en détail le lien entre les températures extrêmes et la surmortalité en France. Une présentation plus technique est utilisée, afin de proposer un nouveau modèle de prévision de la mortalité incluant des termes explicatifs qui puissent capturer la corrélation entre la température et la mortalité, ainsi que l'effet des anomalies de température élevée. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Actuaries Climate Index™, European actuarial climate indices, physical climate risk, geographical grid, heat waves, excess mortality. |
| Date: | 2024–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684629 |
| By: | Mayang Rizky; Nila Warda; Rachma Indah Nurbani; Elza Elmira; Ridho Al Izzati |
| Keywords: | inequality, livelihood capital, rural |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3679 |