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on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2024‒05‒13
thirty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Marcel Adenäuer; Edith Laget; Merritt Cluff |
| Abstract: | Fertilisers are crucial components of food systems, with impacts beyond agricultural markets. This study utilises the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to examine the intricate interplay between fertiliser markets, policies, and their repercussions on agricultural markets, food security, and environmental sustainability over the medium term. Two distinct scenario analyses reveal significant insights. The first scenario shows that while short-term disruptions in fertiliser supply can be mitigated by existing stocks, prolonged deficits will increase global food prices by up to 6%, posing long-term threats to agriculture. In the second scenario, the removal of fertiliser subsidies in India leads to reduced domestic use, resulting in decreased agricultural production and exports coupled with increased imports. Although this will cause a modest 0.8% increase in global food prices, it will substantially cut agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, highlighting the pivotal role of domestic policies in attaining global environmental sustainability goals. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural support, Food security, Greenhouse Gas (GHG), Partial equilibrium modelling |
| JEL: | C54 Q11 Q17 Q18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:207-en&r=agr |
| By: | Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ranjana Roy (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ritika Juneja |
| Abstract: | The policy brief addresses the pressing issues within India's agricultural sector against the backdrop of ongoing farmers' protests, aiming to provide insights and actionable solutions for sustainable income growth and inclusive development. It highlights the modest increase in farmers' incomes over the years, indicating the necessity for proactive measures to address underlying issues. The suggested strategies aim to foster inclusive agricultural development by promoting diversification towards high-value commodities, enhancing market access through innovative approaches like contract farming and Farmers' Producer Organizations (FPOs), liberalizing trade policies to facilitate better price realization for farmers, incentivizing workforce transition out of agriculture, and boosting Total Factor Productivity (TFP) through investments in infrastructure and research. These strategies, if implemented effectively, can empower farmers, improve market efficiency, and contribute to the overarching goal of India's development envisioned in Viksit Bharat@2047. |
| Keywords: | Farmers' Income, Agriculture, Minimum Support Price (MSP), MNREGA, Diversification |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:18&r=agr |
| By: | Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sandip Das; Mahima Khurana |
| Abstract: | With increasing use of fertilizer and pesticides in the Indian farming system, and at many places in a very imbalanced manner, environment has been harmed. Soils are getting acidic with low carbon content, ground water is getting polluted with high nitrate content, and air is accumulating more nitrous oxide. In order to ensure sustainability of Indian agriculture, the government has been trying to promote Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF), renamed as Bhartiya Prakritik Krishi Padhati (BPKP)1. It was mentioned in the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2022-23 Budget Speeches of the Hon’ble Finance Minister, Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman, at 14th UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) by PM Narendra Modi, NITI Aayog and Economic Survey. However, the research questions for us are: what implication will be scaling up of ZBNF at a national level have on the sustainability of the environment, the productivity of major crops, the profitability of the farming community, and above all the national food security? In this study, we attempt to answer these questions with robust empirical analysis as well as field visits and focused group discussions with farmers. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, ZBNF, Natural Farming, Farmer Income, Subsidy |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:24-r-02&r=agr |
| By: | Warner, James; Rosenbach, Gracie; Benimana, Gilberthe; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; Dushimayezu, Bertrand; Nshimiyimana, Octave; Ingabire, Chantal; Spielman, David J. |
| Abstract: | Increased commercialization of smallholder farmers is a major emphasis of Rwanda’s PSTA4 and will continue with PSTA5, as well as other policy documents related to agriculture. Although PSTA4 sought to increase the profitability of smallholder production, efforts to address accelerating commercialization were limited due to the absence of data and analysis on returns to commercial production systems. Relatively little was known about smallholder agricultural decision-making and the associated costs and returns to production systems among these farmers. This policy note introduces an important research initiative that will explore various aspects of commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers and is meant as a general introduction to smallholder commercialization. In subsequent research papers, more detailed studies based on these initial findings will contribute to an improved understanding of agricultural smallholders by providing (1) more nuanced analysis of commercial farmer typologies, (2) estimates of returns to commercial production systems across multiple farmers typologies, and (3) recommendations designed to improve interventions in smallholder commercialization. This brief provides a summary of the results obtained from the 2022 Smallholder Farmer Commercialization Survey (IFPRI 2024). Designed to be representative at the national and provincial levels, ten households were surveyed in 202 villages resulting in a total of 2, 020 interviewed households. The survey covered a wide range of topics including: 1) household demographics; 2) migration, household assets and house conditions, and shocks; 3) household farm characteristics; 4) household expenditures (consumption and non-consumption), and 5) household income sources. The survey instrument was developed using other IFPRI surveys and was referenced to the 2020 AHS and the 2016-2017 EICV5 surveys from NISR. |
| Keywords: | RWANDA, CENTRAL AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, commercialization; smallholders; agriculture; decision making; surveys; households; migration |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:rssppn:9&r=agr |
| By: | Mishra , Ashok (Arizona State University); Valera , Harold Glenn (International Rice Research Institute); Yamano, Takashi (Asian Development Bank); Pede, Valerien (International Rice Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of increased fertilizer prices under different scenarios on rice production, consumption, trade and prices. Using a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework, the simulation results show that a 30% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices would reduce rice yields by 0.45% to 1.33%, but increase world rice prices by 7% to 23% between 2022 and 2025. As the world market price for rice increases significantly, rice trade and rice consumption will decrease accordingly, estimated at 1.7% to 7.0% and 0.27% to 0.78%, respectively. The simulation results also show that retail prices for rice would increase significantly in all rice-consuming countries. The impact of higher fertilizer prices would vary widely in the major rice-producing countries. |
| Keywords: | rice; world prices; Asia; rice trade; food security; partial equilibrium model |
| JEL: | F51 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0724&r=agr |
| By: | Burnett, J. Wesley; Szmurlo, Daniel; Callahan, Scott |
| Abstract: | This report explores patterns across cropland owner-operators and cropland renters in the adoption of conservation tillage, cover cropping, and six permanent structural practices (riparian buffers, field borders, filter strips, terraces, grass waterways, and contour farming). Data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) (2011–2021) on corn, soybeans, cotton, barley, and sorghum growers show little evidence of systemic differences in conservation practice adoption on owner-operated fields compared to cash-rented fields. Differences between owner-operated plots and share-rented plots persist for certain practices and regions of the United States. The report also examines how the institutional factors surrounding farmland rental markets challenge the notion that land renters are inclined to exploit long-term soil quality for short-term profits. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:341821&r=agr |
| By: | Graubner, Marten; Hüttel, Silke |
| Abstract: | Much of the land economics literature has largely ignored the spatial nature of competition and related differences between farmland rental and sales markets. In this note we propose a model for price formation in both markets under a spatial competition framework. We demonstrate that price formation differs, particularly under policy-induced output price shocks. We suggest that using rent-price ratio as an approximation for expectations in the net returns of farming, based on the net present value model, may produce biased results. We conclude that estimates for the capitalization of agricultural, environmental and energy policy into farmland prices can be biased. |
| Keywords: | Land Markets, Rent-price Ratio, Spatial Competition |
| JEL: | L13 Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:forlwp:290396&r=agr |
| By: | Hales, Laura J.; Coleman-Jensen, Alisha |
| Abstract: | Since 1995, when consistent food security monitoring began in the United States, differences have been identified in the prevalence of food insecurity across race and ethnicity. Households with Hispanic and Black, non-Hispanic reference persons have had a higher prevalence of food insecurity than households with White, non-Hispanic, or other, non-Hispanic reference persons. Less is known about the food security status of race and ethnic groups that comprise a smaller share of the population—including American Indian and Alaskan Native, Asian, Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and multiracial groups, including individuals identifying as American Indian and White, individuals identifying as Black and White, and other multiracial combinations. This report combines 6 years of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement (2016–21) to examine household food security among these race and ethnic groups, including by household and economic characteristics and across Hispanic and Asian origin groups. The prevalence of food insecurity ranges from a low of 5.4 percent for Asian households to a high of 23.3 percent for American Indian and Alaska Native households. Meaningful differences in food insecurity exist across and within racial, ethnic, and origin groups. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:341822&r=agr |
| By: | Astorga-Rojas, Diego |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how better market access through infrastructure improvements leads to the adoption of new agricultural technologies. In particular, I study the case of Brazil, and how the construction of the federal highway network from 1950 to 2000 affected the modernization of the agricultural sector. To address endogeneity concerns, I use the creation of Brasilia, and the project to connect it to the state capitals, as a natural experiment. I build a predicted network of highways by computing the cheapest way to connect the state capitals with Brasilia and use it to instrument market access. I find that municipalities where market access increased adopted new agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, improving agricultural productivity as a result. Market access also increased the machinery and equipment used for production, but only when Brazil deregulated its agricultural markets and opened to international trade, after 1990. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity, infrastructure, market access, mechanization |
| JEL: | O13 O18 F14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:289868&r=agr |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute; United Nations Development Programme |
| Abstract: | Analysis of a comprehensive survey of Sudanese rural households conducted from November 2023 to January 2024 by IFPRI and UNDP reveals significant socioeconomic impacts of the ongoing armed conflict on the Sudanese population, underscoring the need for immediate and targeted policy and programmatic interventions. The conflict has severely disrupted rural household incomes and exacerbated existing vulnerabilities related to their housing and access to infrastructure and services. Most households live in inadequate housing conditions, with disparities in access to water, electricity, and sanitation services posing additional challenges. Rural households’ low access to assets, including agricultural land, further complicates their livelihoods. The conflict, primarily concentrated in urban areas, particularly Khartoum, has triggered mass migration, with significant numbers relocating to states like Aj Jazirah and Gedaref. These migrants, often from relatively better-off backgrounds, face substantial income losses, necessitating basic needs support and enhanced provision of public services, particularly for the large families that are more likely to migrate. Agriculture, a critical sector for rural livelihoods, has been significantly affected across all states. Most households reported not cultivating land during the summer season of 2023 due to the conflict. The sharp reduction in the area of crops planted underscores the need for support for farming activities, particularly for smallholder households. The survey highlights extensive exposure to shocks among rural households, with personal shocks, such as illnesses among household members, being the most common. Natural and climatic shocks, although less prevalent, alongside conflict-related shocks, like theft and violence, emphasize the complex challenges faced by these communities. Market access and disruptions have further impacted rural households, with a considerable proportion of rural households unable to sell or buy goods, primarily due to high prices and sharp reductions in income for most households. These market challenges, coupled with the overall economic instability, necessitate interventions aimed at maintaining and improving market accessibility and functionality to promote recovery and resilience. The findings from the analysis of the survey data lend support to designing and implementing comprehensive strategies that address the immediate needs of displaced populations and other rural households affected by income losses and market disruptions. Enhancing public services, supporting livelihoods, building resilience through shock-responsive social protection systems, agricultural and economic interventions, and ensuring equitable access to resources and markets for all households, particularly those headed by women and vulnerable groups, are the principal policy recommendations that emerged from this analysis. This study of rural household livelihoods amid the armed conflict in Sudan provides a foundation for targeted interventions and policy reforms aimed at mitigating the conflict’s impacts and fostering long-term resilience and economic stability. |
| Keywords: | livelihoods; armed conflicts; household surveys; impact assessment; migration; resilience; food security; assets; market access; shock; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:140797&r=agr |
| By: | Markus Lampe (Vienna University of Economics & Business, CEPR); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We seek to understand the welfare of dairy cattle in Denmark from 1750 to 1900, a period marked by significant agricultural development and industrialization. By applying contemporary animal welfare metrics to historical data, we uncover a detailed picture of how bovine welfare evolved. Our findings reveal a complex pattern of both improvements and declines in welfare over time, influenced by changes in farming practices such as feeding, housing, and health management. Our work contributes to a deeper understanding of the nexus of economic progress and animal welfare, highlighting the historical complexities of agricultural practices and their impact on animal welfare. |
| Keywords: | Animal welfare, cattle, dairying, Denmark |
| JEL: | N53 N54 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0257&r=agr |
| By: | Rabi Mohtar |
| Abstract: | It is estimated that $1 trillion to $6 trillion per year (up to 2050) needs to be invested globally if the world is to stay below the 2°C global warming ceiling of the Paris Agreement and to meet its adaptation goals. Currently, investments stand at about $630 billion per year, way below the original target. And although great efforts have been made in the climate-finance area, more than 70% of the funds deployed have gone to one sector, renewable energy, followed by the transportation sector. The agriculture sector has been severely underfunded, even though it produces 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This leaves the most vulnerable communities at risk as the effects of climate change are already impacting this sector intensely. In this policy brief, four principles are proposed as a foundation when deploying funds into climate-change mitigation and adaptation projects: equity, creativity, impact, and transparency. Climate finance has an enormous potential to make bigger impacts when the right principles are applied. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb20-23&r=agr |
| By: | Rodolphe Desbordes; Markus Eberhardt |
| Abstract: | The damage function used to assess the economic impact of secular changes in temperature is one of the most speculative components of integrated assessment models of climate change. Existing work informing this debate is based on pooled empirical models incorporating limited non-linearity and giving little regard to dynamics. We use aggregate and agricultural data for 151 countries over the past six decades to estimate dynamic heterogeneous models which (a) allow the weather-output nexus to differ freely across countries, (b) help distinguish short-run from long-run effects, and (c) account for unobserved time-varying heterogeneity. Overall, we find that, in low-income or high-temperature countries, a permanent 1?C rise in temperature is associated with a fall in income per capita of about 1.3% in the short-run and 8.5% in the long run. These long-run effects are substantially larger than those commonly suggested in the literature. |
| Keywords: | temperature, weather, climate change, economic development, economic growth |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:2024-01&r=agr |
| By: | Biteau, Corentin; Bry-Chevalier, Tom; Crummett, Dustin; Ryba, Ren; St. Jules, Michael |
| Abstract: | Insect meal has been proposed as one way for the food system to reduce its reliance on fishmeal and soy meal, given the environmental and human rights problems associated with those inputs. However, insect meal is currently too expensive to compete with fishmeal and soy meal, hindering its adoption in large-scale agriculture. There is little indication that insect meal will become cheaper in the near future, especially as the insect industry encounters barriers such as a lack of large-scale production technologies, limited utilisation of food waste, and a lack of standardisation in insect meal quality. One solution may be to set up production facilities in tropical countries, where energy needs are lower and labour costs are cheaper, but this would mean sacrificing food self-sufficiency and potentially causing job losses. Another solution involves charging a premium for insect-fed meat, but studies reveal that consumers would be unlikely to pay such a premium. Overall, it is unlikely that insect meal will displace fishmeal and soy meal in the near future; it may be more realistic to address the challenges associated with forage fish depletion and soy production via increased agricultural efficiency and targeted domestic and transnational policy instruments. |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fdbwg&r=agr |
| By: | Thi-Minh-Ngoc Luu (International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, 10000, Hanoi, Vietnam Author-2-Name: Phuong Mai Nguyen Author-2-Workplace-Name: International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, 10000, Hanoi, Vietnam Author-3-Name: Bao Trung Phan Author-3-Workplace-Name: International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, 10000, Hanoi, Vietnam Author-4-Name: Ta Huy Hung Author-4-Workplace-Name: International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, 10000, Hanoi, Vietnam Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - As Vietnam is a densely populated country with stable economic growth and rising concern for environmental problems in recent years, people are increasingly showing more interest in organic food. This study aims to explore the purchase intention of Vietnamese Generation Z (Gen Z) towards organic food. Methodology - We extended the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) with three specific pro-environmental factors that are health consciousness, environmental concern, and knowledge of organic food, to investigate the purchase intention of Gen Z. A self-administered online survey was conducted in Hanoi, Da Nang, and Ho Chi Minh City as they are most populated cities in the country. Findings - 426 valid responses were received for data analysis after three months. Linear regression analysis was run in SPSS software to test six hypotheses. Research findings reveal that attitude has the most substantial influence on the purchase intention of Gen Z, followed by health consciousness, subjective norms, and personal norms. Notably, environmental concerns and knowledge of organic food do not necessarily affect Gen Z's purchase intention. Our findings suggest that related stakeholders in the organic food market adjust their production and marketing tactics to attract Gen Z better. Novelty - The novelty of this paper is attributed to our effort to integrate pro-environmental variables into the TPB to test their impact on organic food purchase intention in a new research context of a transition country. Type of Paper - Empirical " |
| Keywords: | Organic food, Purchase intention, Generation Z, Vietnam |
| JEL: | M31 M59 |
| Date: | 2024–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr328&r=agr |
| By: | Rabbitt, Matthew P.; Beymer, Matthew R. |
| Abstract: | Readiness is a cornerstone of military service. Military readiness includes cognitive and physical abilities to train and execute missions. Previous studies among civilians demonstrate that food security is associated with cognitive function and body mass index. Therefore, food security is vital to maintaining military readiness. While no analyses have been conducted on the prevalence of food insecurity for a representative sample of the active duty U.S. military, studies of individual military installations have demonstrated food insecurity rates between 15 and 33 percent. The authors compared food insecurity among the U.S. military and civilian adult populations, using data from the 2018 and 2020 Status of Forces Survey of Active Duty Members and the Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement. A weighting procedure was used to ensure the military and civilian adult populations were demographically equivalent. The findings show that the prevalence of food insecurity was 25.3 percent among the military population compared with 10.1 percent among a demographically equivalent civilian adult population. A more severe form of food insecurity, very low food security, was estimated to be 10.5 percent of the military population in 2018 and 2020, compared with 3.6 percent of the comparable civilian adult population during this period. The findings demonstrate that the military population is at elevated risk for food insecurity and that food insecurity measures can be used to reliably construct measures of active duty service members’ food insecurity for monitoring and research purposes. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2034–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:341823&r=agr |
| By: | Feriga, Moustafa (World Bank); Lozano Gracia, Nancy (World Bank); Serneels, Pieter (University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies five areas where climate change may impact work and draws lessons for developing countries by reviewing the evidence. Firstly, demand for labor is unevenly affected, with agriculture, heat-exposed manufacturing, and the brown energy sector experiencing downturns, while other sectors may see a rise, resulting in an uncertain overall impact. Secondly, climate change impacts labor supply through absenteeism, shirking, and altering work-time patterns, depending on the activity and sector. Thirdly, productivity may decline, especially in heat-exposed industries, primarily due to health reasons. Fourthly, heightened earnings variability likely increases vulnerability among the self-employed. Fifthly, climate change can influence labor allocation and catalyze sectoral reallocation. Higher temperatures are also linked to increased migration. But caution is needed in interpreting these findings, as studies across these topics predominantly use fixed effect estimation and concentrate on short-term impacts, neglecting adaptation. Emerging research on adaptation indicates that workplace cooling is unappealing for firms with narrow profit margins, while coping strategies of farms and households have unclear optimality due to adoption barriers. Government responses remain understudied, with six potential areas identified: green jobs, green skills, labor-oriented adaptation, flexible work regulation, labor market integration, and social protection. The paper concludes by outlining future research directions. |
| Keywords: | climate change, labor, development |
| JEL: | Q54 J01 O1 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16914&r=agr |
| By: | Mr. Christian Bogmans; Mr. Andrea Pescatori; Ivan Petrella; Ervin Prifti; Martin Stuermer |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes supply and demand elasticities for a broad set of commodities based on a consistent dataset and identification methodology. We apply granular IV methods to a new cross-country panel dataset of commodity production and consumption from 1960-2021. The results indicate that commodity demand and supply are typically price inelastic. Demand and supply tend to be the most inelastic for minerals, whereas they are most elastic for agricultural commodities. The elasticities of energy commodities fall somewhere in between. Supply and demand become more elastic at longer time horizons for mineral and energy commodities, but not for most agricultural commodities. |
| Keywords: | Commodities; international trade; price elasticities; demand; supply; energy; agriculture; minerals; metals. |
| Date: | 2024–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/077&r=agr |
| By: | PERPIÑA CASTILLO Carolina; HORMIGOS FELIU Clara (European Commission - JRC); DORATI Chiara (European Commission - JRC); KAKOULAKI Georgia (European Commission - JRC); PEETERS Leen; QUARANTA Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); TAYLOR Nigel (European Commission - JRC); UIHLEIN Andreas (European Commission - JRC); AUTERI Davide (European Commission - JRC); DIJKSTRA Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The green energy transition and its boost to the deployment of renewable energy can offer a unique opportunity for rural areas to benefit from their natural resources. The present study aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the technical potential of renewable energy sources in the EU’s rural areas, focusing on solar, wind and hydropower. This will help to provide relevant insights into how rural areas and communities can contribute to and benefit from the EU’s green energy transition, without undermining natural areas, key biodiversity and bird areas, high-value natural arms and food production. Moreover, a comparative analysis between current renewable energy production and potential in rural areas identifies which sustainable development trajectories for the future deployment of renewables are the most suitable in each specific territory. The report shows that solar photovoltaic systems in rural areas generate 136TWh a year but have the potential to generate 60 times more (8600TWh/year). Rural areas produce 280TWh a year through onshore wind but have the potential to produce four times more (1200TWh/year). Hydropower production in rural areas yields 280TWh a year, but it could potentially be 25% higher (350TWh/year). This work also addresses the concept of energy communities, as an emerging framework intended to foster a just green transition for rural communities, where generated values and benefits can be retained locally, while also promoting democratic participation and citizen engagement. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135612&r=agr |
| By: | Caroline Orset (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The increase in economic activity, particularly in transport, leads to a significant increase in emissions of pollutants, such as ammonia, arsenic and cadmium, at the European Union (EU) level. This can seriously impact human health and, consequently, public health spending. Based on data from 15 European Union countries from 1992 to 2020, a panel co-integration approach is used to study these pollutants' short- and long-term co-movements and per capita health expenditure. The results show a long-term relationship between ammonia, arsenic and cadmium emissions and per capita health spending, as they are panel-cointegrated. Ammonia and cadmium emissions exert a statistically significant positive effect on health expenditure in the short run, and arsenic emissions have a statistically significant positive impact in the long run. The forecast assessment of reductions in health spending resulting from policies to reduce emissions of air, land and water pollutants, such as ammonia, arsenic and cadmium, from the transport sector supports investments in its policies that reduce pressure on health spending. The reduction in annual healthcare expenditure is greater when these reductions are made sooner and more severely. Indeed, varying the reduction in emissions for each pollutant by 10% and 100%, respectively, from the first year for all countries over a 3-year period results in an average annual reduction in health spending of 2.05% and 51.02%, respectively. However, if we wait until the third year, the annual reduction is only 0.77% and 17.63% respectively. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04521160&r=agr |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | Ghana achieved lower middle-income country status by 2011. However, its growth path in the previous decades did not lay the foundations for the economic transformation of Ghanaian agriculture and therefore its overall economy. It relied primarily on extractive and non-renewable resources (gold and oil) and cocoa exports, and it did not diversify. While much progress was made in poverty reduction, pervasive low productivity and job informality continue to condemn millions to poverty, vulnerability, and therefore to chronic food insecurity. Despite its abundant natural resource endowment, and despite decades of growth, Ghana is again on the brink. The harsh assault of the COVID-19 pandemic laid bare its structural weaknesses. Ghana must again recover: it urgently seeks an Extended Credit Facility of about $3 billion and a restructuring of its debt, to enable it ride out of its current crisis and pursue its vision of ‘Ghana Beyond Aid.’ |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb28-23&r=agr |
| By: | Scott Wentland; Gary Cornwall; Jeremy G. Moulton |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new method for valuing land, a key asset on a nation’s balance sheet. The method first employs an unsupervised machine learning method, kmeans clustering, to discretize unobserved heterogeneity, which we then combine with a supervised learning algorithm, gradient boosted trees (GBT), to obtain property-level price predictions and estimates of the land component. Our initial results from a large national dataset show this approach routinely outperforms hedonic regression methods (as used by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, for example) in out-of-sample price predictions. To exploit the best of both methods, we further explore a composite approach using model stacking, finding it outperforms all methods in out-of-sample tests and a benchmark test against nearby vacant land sales. In an application, we value residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural land for the entire contiguous U.S. from 2006-2015. The results offer new insights into valuation and demonstrate how a unified method can build national and subnational estimates of land value from detailed, parcel-level data. We discuss further applications to economic policy and the property valuation literature more generally. |
| JEL: | E01 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bea:papers:0115&r=agr |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | Nigeria has the potential to be an economic powerhouse, but food insecurity stalks a large share of its population. Over the last fifteen years, undernutrition has increased from over 7% (2004-06) to nearly 13% of the population (2017-2019). The COVID-19 pandemic of course exacerbated health and nutrition problems. With the current high inflation, an additional 4 million people have been pushed into poverty, from 90 million (Dec. 2022) to 94 million (April 2023) (WBG, June 2023). |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb36-23&r=agr |
| By: | Rafael Pucci |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the understudied phenomenon of urban land conflicts in contexts with weak enforcement of property rights. I examine, both theoretically and empirically, the use of arson as a violent tool to force slum removal from high-value land in cities. Leveraging fine-grained geocoded data, I employ panel regression and Difference-in-Differences analyses to demonstrate that the probability of slum fires dramatically increases with rising land prices. This effect is nonlinear and driven exclusively by slums situated on private lands, highlighting the role of high-powered incentives behind arson. These results illustrate how urban land conflicts can have different outcomes than their rural counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Urban Land Conflict; Slums; Arson; Violence; Property Rights |
| JEL: | K42 D74 O18 R10 |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon13&r=agr |
| By: | Henderson, Richard; Gastelle, Jesse; Caffarelli, Peter |
| Abstract: | This report provides a breakout by mode of corn, wheat, soybeans, sorghum, and barley movements to either domestic markets or U.S. ports for export between 1978 and 2020. It is the thirteenth update of an initial modal share study completed in 1992. The purpose of this series of reports is to provide the latest information about changes and trends in the relative competitiveness and efficiency among the different transportation modes in moving grain. Estimates of the tonnages (and shares) of grain railed, barged, and trucked are developed from a variety of secondary sources. This data can be used to identify trends and implications on transportation from factors, such as changes in production volumes and commodity mix, as well as changes in the relative demand for U.S. grain for domestic purposes versus export. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uamstr:341819&r=agr |
| By: | Ioanna Mouratiadou (ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, LER - Laboratoire d'Études Rurales - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2, Isara); Alexander Wezel (AGE - Agroécologie et Environnement - Isara, Isara); Kintan Kamilia (Isara); Angelica Marchetti (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Maria Luisa Paracchini (JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]); Paolo Bàrberi (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Agroecology is identified as an important solution to increase the sustainability of agricultural and food systems. Despite the increasing number of publications assessing the socio-economic outcomes of agroecology, very few studies have consolidated the scattered results obtained on various case studies. This paper provides new insights by consolidating evidence on the varied socio-economic effects of agroecology across a large number of cases at a global level. To this purpose, we used a rapid review methodology, screening more than 13, 000 publications to retrieve evidence on the socio-economic outcomes of the implementation of agroecological practices. The results of the review indicate that (1) agroecological practices are associated more often with positive socio-economic outcomes across the broad range of evaluated metrics (51% positive, 30% negative, 10% neutral, and 9% inconclusive outcomes); (2) the socio-economic metrics associated with financial capital represent the vast majority of evaluated metrics (83% of total) and are affected positively in a large share of cases (53%), due to favourable outcomes on income, revenues, productivity and efficiency; (3) human capital metrics (16%) are associated with a larger number of negative outcomes (46% versus 38% positive), due to higher labour requirements and costs that are however partly compensated by an overall greater number of positive outcomes on labour productivity (55%); and (4) the results vary depending on the agroecological practice assessed; e.g. for agroforestry, we identify 53% positive outcomes while for cropping system diversification 35%. These results indicate an overall favourable potential for farms to benefit from a positive socio-economic performance with the use of agroecological practices. Yet, the magnitude, temporal aspects, and success factors related to these outcomes, as well as the trade-offs between them, and the system-level effects of an agroecological transition are to be further assessed, since they can have an important influence on the performance of individual farms. |
| Keywords: | Agroecological practices, Socio-economic indicators, Sustainable livelihoods, Farm economic performance, Agroforestry, Intercropping |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04527200&r=agr |
| By: | Rudloff, Bettina; Mensah, Kristina; Wieck, Christine |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the recent literature on geostrategic aspects of economic policy and the objective of economic security by addressing food security as a subcategory within economic security. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this study analyses whether and how the relevance of food security as a national policy goal has changed. It focuses on the questions of whether countries’ policy choices towards this objective have initiated longer-term strategic shifts, rather than just acute reactions, and analyses the extent to which these adjustments are influenced by underlying geopolitical considerations. To answer these questions, developments in food security policies are identified, focusing primarily on the perspective of security of supply. This perspective fits with the recent political focus and current initiatives by many countries aiming at national economic and supply security in general. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatrcp:341933&r=agr |
| By: | Léo Coppens; Simon Dietz; Frank Venmans |
| Abstract: | Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide key inputs to decision-makers on economically efficient climate policies, and technical change is one of the key assumptions in any IAM that estimates mitigation costs. We conduct a systematic survey of how technical change is currently represented in the main IAMs and find that a diversity of approaches continues to exist. This makes it important to conduct an up-to-date assessment of what difference technical change makes to IAM results. Here we attempt such an assessment, using an analytical IAM with a reduced-form representation of technical change, which we can calibrate on the relationship between abatement costs and the timing of abatement in 109 IAM scenarios from two major databases. We first show in theory how a range of technical-change mechanisms can be adequately captured in a reduced-form model, in which the key difference is whether technical change is a function of time, i.e., exogenous, or cumulative past emissions abatement, i.e., endogenous. We then derive analytical and quantitative results on the effect of technical change on optimal climate policy, for both cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness policy problems. Under cost-benefit analysis, technical change has a quantitatively large, negative effect on long-run emissions and temperatures. The effect on carbon prices differs markedly depending on whether technical change is exogenous or endogenous, and whether clean technology deployment is incentivised by carbon prices or a dedicated deployment subsidy. Under cost-effectiveness analysis, technical change has a small effect on transient emissions and temperatures, but it has a large, negative effect on carbon prices almost irrespective of the policy instruments available. We make several practical recommendations for how IAMs can better incorporate TC, particularly when facing computational constraints. |
| Keywords: | climate change, cost-benefit analysis, induced innovation, integrated assessment models, technical change |
| JEL: | C61 O30 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11059&r=agr |
| By: | Nisha Taneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sanjana Joshi; Sanya Dua; Biswajit Nag; Rashmi Rastogi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the BBIN MVA can help in improving the export competitiveness of the North eastern region. Using secondary data and an in-depth primary survey a detailed examination of supply chain of two key items – pharmaceuticals and fresh and processed pineapple is undertaken to understand the impediments in the inbound and outbound supply chains. The efficiency of current supply chains is measured in terms of time and cost incurred in various stages of the supply chains and indicative costs on alternative routes are obtained to assess how the sectors could benefit and improve their export competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | BBIN MVA, Northeast Region (NER), exports, supply chain, pharmaceuticals, pineapple |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:419&r=agr |
| By: | Saon Ray (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Vasundhara Thakur |
| Abstract: | The literature on backward and forward linkages in global value chains (GVCs) explores the interconnectedness of production processes across different stages and locations within the global economy. The significance of imports in value chains, however, is relatively unexplored. Recognising imports' role in bolstering exports can rejuvenate external demand and spur growth. To examine Indian imports from ASEAN, we utilise the ARDL bounds test for 2011-12 Q1 to 2020-21 Q2. The results reject the null hypothesis of no level relationship between ASEAN imports and other variables. Notably, the positive long-run coefficient of export logs suggests a favourable impact on Indian imports from ASEAN, while the negative COVID-19 dummy coefficient indicates pandemic-induced import setbacks. |
| Keywords: | Imports, exports, import demand function, COVID-19, global value chains, GVCs |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:420&r=agr |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik; Gyowon Gwon |
| Abstract: | As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997-2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on high-frequency data and robust to alternative estimation methodologies—show that these effects vary across countries, depending on the severity of weather shocks and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The impact of weather shocks on supply chains and inflation dynamics is likely to become more pronounced with accelerating climate change that can have non-linear effects. These findings have important policy implications. Central bankers should consider the impact of weather anomalies on supply chains and inflation dynamics to prevent entrenching second-round effects and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. More directly, however, governments can invest more for climate change adaptation to strengthen critical infrastructure and thereby minimize supply chain disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; weather anomalies; temperature; supply chain pressures; inflation; structural VAR |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/079&r=agr |
| By: | BIANCHI Guia (European Commission - JRC); MATTI Cristian (European Commission - JRC); PONTIKAKIS Dimitrios (European Commission - JRC); REIMERIS Ramojus (European Commission - JRC); HAEGEMAN Karel Herman (European Commission - JRC); MIEDZINSKI Michal (European Commission - JRC); SILLERO ILLANES Carmen (European Commission - JRC); MIFSUD Solange (European Commission - JRC); SASSO Simone (European Commission - JRC); BOL Erica (European Commission - JRC); MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC); ANDREONI Antonio; JANSSEN Matthijs; SAUBLENS Christian; STEFANOV Ruslan; TOLIAS Yannis |
| Abstract: | Addressing complex challenges requires different tools, mindsets and approaches from those traditionally used, which contributed to create some of these challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, raising inequalities. Focusing on one is not sufficient and understanding their interlinkages and feedback effects is essential. Innovation policy alone cannot help us tackle such problems, nor to achieve the European Green Deal – Europe’s own socio-economic transformation strategy. For this, interterritorial collaboration, network governance and coordinated policy-action mixes enable efforts at the local, regional and national level to achieve long-term societal wellbeing and climate resilient development. Building partnerships is therefore not only a desired objective, but a necessary prerequisite to move towards long-term societal wellbeing and secure Europe’s open strategic autonomy. ‘Innovation for place-based transformations’ includes three operational documents. First, the ACTIONbook provides some activities to build strategic and purpose-driven partnerships within an institution, department, territory, and across boundaries. Then, a collection of practices from territories describes existing approaches to transformative innovation taking place in Europe. Finally, a collection of tools for ACTION is linked to activities described in the ACTIONbook and can be used to put them in practice. This document is published by the Joint Research Centre and the European Committee of the Regions and is the result of a co-creative effort with Partnerships for Regional Innovation (PRI) pilot participants, the PRI Scientific Committee, experts and policymakers. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135826&r=agr |