|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2024‒04‒01
thirty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Fernando M. Aragon; Diego Restuccia; Juan Pablo Rud |
| Abstract: | We examine empirically whether the level of data aggregation affects the assessment of misallocation in agriculture. Using data from Ugandan farmers, we document a substantial discrepancy between misallocation measures calculated at the plot and at the farm levels. Estimates of misallocation at the plot level are much higher than those estimated with the same data but aggregated at the farm level. Even after accounting for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity, estimates of misallocation at the plot level are extremely high, with nationwide agricultural productivity gains of 562%. Furthermore, we find suggestive evidence that granular data may be more susceptible to measurement error in survey data and that data aggregation can attenuate the relative magnitude of measurement error in misallocation measures. Our findings suggest caution in generalizing insights on measurement error and misallocation from plot-level analysis to those at the farm level. |
| Keywords: | misallocation, agriculture, measurement error, distortions. |
| JEL: | O4 O13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-769&r=agr |
| By: | Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops. |
| Keywords: | bioeconomic models; climate change; maize; crop modelling; agricultural production; modelling; climate models |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2239&r=agr |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Based on statistical data produced by several competent organizations, this article discusses, first, the evolution of the sales of organic food products and the weight they represent on the overall food market. Representing 6.3% of the French food market in 2021 compared to 3.2% in 2015, organic products have enjoyed strong growth in recent years. Since 2021, however, the market has been facing many difficulties, mainly due to inflation, which is leading consumers to make new trade-offs in their purchasing actions. In a second step, this article focuses on French organic animal products, which will represent a little less than a quarter of organic food purchases in 2021. Organic livestock products are marketed for the most part through mass distribution channels and are not very concerned by foreign trade. Thus, contrary to other organic sectors (including fruits and vegetables), domestic consumption is almost exclusively assured by products from the national market. Even though the consumption of organic animal products has grown, at least until very recently (2021), there is, however, strong competition with other signs and quality labels (Label Rouge, AOP, IGP, CCP, etc.). In France, the share of organic production in total agricultural production (expressed in tonnage) is increasing, but it varies according to the sector. Eggs rank first on this criterion (15.4% of national production), ahead of dairy products (5.2% of cow's milk collection) and, further behind, meats, particularly pork and poultry (between 1% and 2% of slaughterings). |
| Abstract: | Basé sur une valorisation de données statistiques issues de différentes organisations compétentes, cet article discute, dans un premier temps, de l'évolution des ventes de produits alimentaires issus de l'agriculture biologique et du poids que celles-ci représentent dans le marché alimentaire global. En représentant 6, 3 % du marché alimentaire français en 2021 contre 3, 2 % en 2015, les produits bio ont bénéficié d'une forte croissance au cours des années récentes. Depuis 2021, cependant, le marché fait face à de nombreuses difficultés, en raison principalement de l'inflation qui amène les consommateurs à faire de nouveaux arbitrages dans leurs actes d'achat. Dans un second temps, cet article se focalise sur les produits animaux bio français, lesquels représentent un peu moins du quart des achats alimentaires bio en 2021. Les produits animaux bio sont commercialisés pour une grande part par le canal de la grande distribution et sont peu concernés par les échanges extérieurs. Ainsi contrairement à d'autres filières bio (dont les fruits et légumes), la consommation intérieure demeure quasi exclusivement assurée par des produits issus du marché national. Si la consommation de produits animaux bio s'est développée, du moins jusqu'à une période très récente (2021), une forte concurrence existe cependant avec les autres signes et mentions de qualité (Label Rouge, AOP, IGP…). En France, la part du bio dans la production agricole totale (exprimée en tonnage) augmente, mais elle varie selon les filières. Les oeufs occupent le premier rang sur ce critère (15, 4 % de la production nationale), devant les produits laitiers (5, 2 % de la collecte de lait de vache) et, plus loin derrière, les viandes, notamment celles de porc et de volailles (entre 1 et 2 % des abattages). |
| Keywords: | Organic farming, Animal production, France, Organic products, Inflation, Agriculture biologique, Productions animales, Produits bio |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04474832&r=agr |
| By: | Warnes, Xavier Sebastian (Stanford U); de Zegher, Joann F. (MIT); Iancu, Dan A. (Stanford U); Plambeck, Erica (Stanford U) |
| Abstract: | Tropical deforestation for agriculture causes alarming CO2 emissions and loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. To prevent this, various governments and multinational commodity-buyers offer a positive incentive for locals conditional on no deforestation in a specified area. As an alternative to the area no-deforestation condition, we propose a weaker "regeneration condition": if forest is cleared on land in the specified area, locals prevent its economic use, enabling the forest to regenerate. With innovation in cooperative game theory, we characterize the best condition (area no-deforestation vs. area regeneration) and feasible incentives to prevent deforestation and to compensate each local for his missed economic opportunity. The regeneration condition is best in an area with the potential for entrants to engage in deforestation. Without entrants, if locals can cooperate, the area no-deforestation condition is best, and works with any incentive that is more valuable for locals collectively than deforestation. By surveying smallholder palm farmers in 58 villages of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, we fit our model with a price premium for palm fruit as the incentive, in each village as the area. A price premium is an imperfect incentive, having least value for a farmer with the least land and, correspondingly, high temptation to engage in deforestation. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) price premium is too low. Still, with a moderate price premium, our area regeneration condition prevents deforestation in most villages and is remarkably robust to deter potential entrants. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4143&r=agr |
| By: | Subedi, Dipak; Giri, Anil K. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:340782&r=agr |
| By: | Cécile Couharde; Rémi Generoso |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the National Ambient Air Quality Stan-dards, as defined by the Clean Air Act, on agricultural land valueswithin the corn and soybean regions of the United States. To achievethis objective, agricultural census data on farmland values are com-bined with pollution exposure metrics as defined by the Environmen-tal Protection Agency. Using a difference-in-differences approach andconducting various robustness checks, we find that compliance with airquality standards has a statistically significant negative effect on agri-cultural land values at the county level. Moreover, evidence from quan-tile regression analysis suggests that counties in the lower quantiles failto translate the economic and environmental benefits of pollution re-duction into increased farmland values, unlike their counterparts withthe highest-valued lands. |
| Keywords: | Air Quality Standards; Agricultural Land Values; Difference- in-Differences; Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | C21 Q15 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-9&r=agr |
| By: | Tasso Adamopoulos; Fernando Leibovici |
| Abstract: | We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to food imports from the conflict countries experienced a significant increase in food insecurity by consuming fewer varieties of foods. Motivated by this evidence, we develop a multi-country multi-sector model of trade and structural change with stochastic trade costs to study the impact and policy implications of trade risk. In the model, importers operate subject to limited liability and trade off the production cost advantage against the risk of higher trade costs when sourcing goods internationally. We find that trade risk can threaten food security, with substantial quantitative effects on trade flows and the sectoral composition of economic activity. We study the desirability of trade policy and production subsidies in partially mitigating exposure to trade risk and diversifying domestic economic activity. |
| Keywords: | food security; trade; risk; structural change; productivity |
| JEL: | E10 F10 F60 I30 O11 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:97907&r=agr |
| By: | Fatma Mhadhbi Mhadhbi (ECODEVELOPPEMENT - Ecodéveloppement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, AU - Avignon Université, UCAR - Université de Carthage (Tunisie)); Claude Napoléone (ECODEVELOPPEMENT - Ecodéveloppement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We examined the impact of agricultural intensification on the wellbeing of rural communities in a developing country on a sub-communal scale. To measure the interactions within this complex causal relationship, a statistical approach was applied, using partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) in its formative structure. Using PLS-PM to simultaneously relate the measured variables (manifest variables) and conceptual variables (latent variables), while incorporating other variables, such as the bioclimate and demography, we characterized the spatial structure of the links between intensive agriculture and wellbeing. The aim was to facilitate government intervention aiming to improve the wellbeing of rural households, while avoiding cumbersome and costly surveys when the scope of public action is extended to a region or a country. Our findings show that the generalization of the productivist system is not always appropriate in developing countries. In our case study, employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors is insufficient to accommodate the rural exodus. In such situations, agricultural intensification leads to poverty and migration to the areas of production and increases disparities in social wellbeing in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | agricultural intensification, rural wellbeing, developing country, partial least squares path modeling, Tunisia |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04487480&r=agr |
| By: | Zadeh, S. M.; Drechsel, Pay (International Water Management Institute); Salcedo, F. P. |
| Keywords: | Water quality; Sustainable Development Goals; Goal 6 Clean water and sanitation; Water pollution; Agricultural pollution; Monitoring; Wastewater; Human health; Sanitation |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h052240&r=agr |
| By: | David Nortes Martínez (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Frédéric Grelot (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Pauline Brémond (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Stefano Farolfi (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Juliette Rouchier (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Floods can severely disrupt agricultural activities. When these activities are part of production chains, domino effects can occur. We use agent‐based modeling to simulate the production dynamics of a French cooperative winery as an example of a production chain, adopting a dual individual‐collective perspective. The cash‐flow analysis shows that there are nonexplicit mechanisms in the cooperative organization that allow the propagation of flood impacts throughout the chain and influence the winegrowers' ability to cope, thus threatening the continuity of the winegrowers' activity and the cooperative winery itself. |
| Keywords: | agricultural cooperative, cashflow analysis, flood damage, vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04443707&r=agr |
| By: | Han-Yu Zhu; Peng-Fei Dai; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | Agricultural products play a critical role in human development. With economic globalization and the financialization of agricultural products continuing to advance, the interconnections between different agricultural futures have become closer. We utilize a TVP-VAR-DY model combined with the quantile method to measure the risk spillover between 11 agricultural futures on the futures exchanges of US and China from July 9, 2014, to December 31, 2022. This study yielded several significant findings. Firstly, CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat were identified as the primary risk transmitters, with DCE corn and soybean as the main risk receivers. Secondly, sudden events or increased economic uncertainty can increase the overall risk spillovers. Thirdly, there is an aggregation of risk spillovers amongst agricultural futures based on the dynamic directional spillover results. Lastly, the central agricultural futures under the conditional mean are CBOT corn and soybean, while CZCE hard wheat and long-grained rice are the two risk spillover centers in extreme cases, as per the results of the spillover network and minimum spanning tree. Based on these results, decision-makers are advised to safeguard against the price risk of agricultural futures under sudden economic events, and investors can utilize the results to construct a superior investment portfolio by taking different agricultural product futures as risk-leading indicators according to various situations. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.01745&r=agr |
| By: | Algieri, Bernardina; Kornher, Lukas; von Braun, Joachim |
| Abstract: | The inflation surge in recent years is having profound social, economic, and political consequences. With food price changes being an integral part of inflation, low income segments of the population are strongly impacted. What makes this period so unusual is the breadth of price pressures that are affecting both low and high-income countries. In essence, this phenomenon shows that inflation is increasingly synchronised across borders. This study examines price developments across countries and over time and investigates the driving factors behind food price hikes. Our analysis reveals that a complex mix of causes has led to the soaring food prices seen in 2021-2022. The spread of COVID-19 produced disruptions in the world’s supply chains, pushing the cost of producing and transporting food upward. The increase in fertilizer and energy prices has further exacerbated production costs for agricultural products. Adverse climatic phenomena (e.g., La Niña), generated droughts in parts of Africa, Asia, and the Americas, damaged harvests, and fuelled inflation. The war in Ukraine and the associated trade blockade of grain exports made things worse. Additional pressures included speculative activities in financial markets, which were already at play before the Russia-Ukraine war. In spite of all these increases in costs, inflation could perhaps have been kept under control by immediate, sufficiently restrictive monetary policies by Central Banks. Most likely, the main cause of the strong inflationary surge in several countries seems to have been the failure of some Central Banks to rapidly intervene to counteract the effects of overall price increases including key staples. Soaring inflation is continuing to make vulnerable countries hungrier and poorer and, therefore, prompt actions are necessary to help them. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:340561&r=agr |
| By: | Geppert, Frauke; Krachunova, Tsvetelina; Bellingrath-Kimura, Sonoko Dorothea |
| Abstract: | In this study, we identified currently available digital and smart technologies for German agriculture and classified their applicability. We differentiated our findings by three categories and ten sub-categories, including complex systems for data collection, software- and hardware-based technologies with a total of 201 commercial technologies. Additionally, we took an inventory of the country-specific agricultural environmental impacts and conducted an online survey on the barriers and potentials of digital technologies in relation to sustainability, followed by an experts' dialogue with stakeholders from agriculture, policy, industry, research, and civil societies, and a literature review assessment. On this basis, we elaborated key recommendations for further actions that prevail barriers and promote potentials for a sustainable digitalisation in German agriculture. We also provided best-practice examples from other European countries. Our findings showed that policy actions are urgently needed to establish a broader use of digital and smart technologies for sustainability purposes in daily farm work. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:efisdi:284380&r=agr |
| By: | Catherine Laroche-Dupraz (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST) |
| Abstract: | Conclusions and perspectives of the Carrefour de l'innovation agronomique sur la PAC, 2023, Rennes. The 2023 reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has introduced greater subsidiarity for Member States, who are now responsible for drawing up their own National Strategic Plans (NSP), in line with their national priorities, but with a commitment to contributing to European objectives. At French level, there is a tension between two objectives that are difficult to reconcile in the implementation of the CAP: maintaining income support for farmers on the one hand, and supporting the agro-ecological transition of farms on the other. The compromise reached clearly prioritizes securing incomes for existing farmers, but casts doubt on the ability to achieve the objectives of the Green Pact. To be more effective in achieving the sustainability objectives of European agriculture, the post-2027 CAP will have to consider not only how to secure installations and transitions to production systems consistent with the objectives, but also give clear signals to encourage the transition of European diets. |
| Abstract: | Conclusions et perspectives du Carrefour de l'innovation agronomique sur la PAC, 2023, Rennes. La réforme de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) 2023 a apporté une plus grande subsidiarité des Etats Membres , en charge de construire eux-mêmes leur Plan Stratégique National (PSN), en lien avec leurs priorités nationales, mais en engageant leur Etat dans la contribution aux objectifs européens. Au niveau français, on a bien une tension entre deux objectifs difficiles à concilierdans la mise en œuvre de la PAC : le maintien du soutien au revenu des agriculteurs d'une part, et le soutien de la transition agro-écologique des exploitations d'autre part. Le compromis auquel on aboutit est clairement priorisé sur la sécurisation du revenu des agriculteurs en place, mais amène à douter de la capacité à atteindre les objectifs du pacte vert. Pour gagner en efficacité pour l'atteinte des objectifs de durabilité de l'agriculture européenne, la PAC post-2027 devra envisager non seulement la sécurisation des installations et des transitions vers des systèmes de production cohérents avec les objectifs, mais aussi donner des signaux clairs pour favoriser la transition des régimes alimentaires européens. |
| Keywords: | PAC, transition agroécologique, plan stratégique national, Grean Deal |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04467630&r=agr |
| By: | Abebe, Meseret B.; Alem, Yonas |
| Abstract: | Climate change is making El Niños more frequent and intense. Therefore, understanding the effects of El-Niño-induced climatic events is essential to designing effective coping and adaptation strategies. We identify the impact of the 2015-16 El-Niño-induced large-scale drought on smallholder farmers' livestock holding and milk production using nationally representative data collected before and after the drought. We show that drought reduced milk production and livestock holding by 25.8% and 8.4%, respectively. Heterogenous impact analysis suggests that asset-rich households sold livestock and financed feed purchases, which insulated their milk production from the drought. In contrast, asset-poor households kept their livestock despite the severe drought and absorbed all the decline in milk production. Our findings have important implications for formulating safety net and adaptation programs targeting smallholder farmers and the livestock sector in a rapidly changing climate. |
| Abstract: | Durch den Klimawandel werden El Niños immer häufiger und intensiver. Es ist wichtig, die Auswirkungen der El-Niño-Ereignisse zu verstehen, um wirksame Bewältigungs- und Anpassungsstrategien zu entwickeln. Wir ermitteln die Auswirkungen der durch El Niño verursachten großen Dürre 2015-16 auf den Viehbestand und die Milchproduktion von Kleinbauern anhand national repräsentativer Daten, die vor und nach der Dürre erhoben wurden. Wir zeigen, dass die Dürre die Milchproduktion und den Viehbestand um 25, 8 % bzw. 8, 4 % verringerte. Die Analyse der heterogenen Auswirkungen zeigt, dass vermögensstarke Haushalte ihren Viehbestand verkauften und damit den Kauf von Futtermitteln finanzierten, was ihre Milchproduktion Milchproduktion vor der Dürre schützte. Im Gegensatz dazu behielten die vermögensarmen Haushalte ihren Viehbestand trotz der schweren Dürre bei und fingen den gesamten Rückgang der Milchproduktion auf. Unsere Ergebnisse haben wichtige Implikationen für die Formulierung von Sicherheitsnetz- und Anpassungsprogrammen für Kleinbauern und den Viehzuchtsektor in einem sich rasch verändernden Klima. |
| Keywords: | Drought, diff-in-diff, climate change, smallholder farmer, livestock holding |
| JEL: | D13 O13 O44 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:284396&r=agr |
| By: | Sergio L. Franklin Jr.; Robert S. Pindyck |
| Abstract: | Forestation is viewed as an important means of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere and thereby reducing net CO₂ emissions. But how much CO₂ can be removed, and at what cost? Focusing on forested and forestable areas in South America, and using spatially disaggregated data, we estimate a supply curve for forest-based atmospheric CO₂ removal. The supply curve traces out the marginal cost of removing a metric ton of CO₂ as a function of total annual CO₂ removal. Each point on the curve corresponds to a specific location, and accounts for land opportunity costs as well as costs of tree planting and maintenance. We show that over a billion tons of CO₂ can be removed annually via forestation at a cost below $45 per ton, and about 2.5 billion tons can be removed at a cost below $90 per ton. The supply curve applies to only South America, but with sufficient data could be extended to the entire world. |
| JEL: | C6 Q50 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32207&r=agr |
| By: | Murken, Lisa; Krähnert, Kati; Van den Broek, Karlijn; Adriko, John; Gornott, Christoph |
| Abstract: | This paper applies a mental model approach to study the role of tenure security in farmers' decisionmaking on agricultural investment in Uganda. We investigate the role that both perceived tenure security and formal land rights, measured by the possession of land certificates, play. Our focus is on investment in improved seeds, a widely applied strategy in agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The study design leverages the roll-out of a large land demarcation and registration project, which creates exogenous variation in farmers' tenure security. Results show that, in contrast to expectations derived from economic theory, tenure security plays only a minor role in farmers' decision-making process to invest in improved seeds. Out of 15 potential factors determining a farmer's investment decision, both perceived tenure security and possession of a land certificate are among the least chosen factors, regardless of whether or not households participated in the land registration project. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that female-headed households value formalized land rights more than male-headed households. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht mit einem Mental Model-Ansatz, welchen Einfluss die Sicherheit des Landbesitzes bei der Entscheidungsfindung über Agrarinvestitionen von Kleinbauern in Uganda hat. Wir analysieren die Rolle, die sowohl die wahrgenommene Eigentumssicherheit als auch formale Landrechte, gemessen durch den Besitz von Landzertifikaten, spielen. Unser Schwerpunkt liegt auf Investitionen in verbessertes Saatgut - einer weit verbreiteten Strategie in der landwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und der Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Das Studiendesign nutzt die Einführung eines großen Landregistrierungsprojekts, das zu exogener Variation in der Sicherheit des Landbesitzes führt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass im Gegensatz zu den aus der Wirtschaftstheorie abgeleiteten Erwartungen die Sicherheit des Landbesitzes im Entscheidungsprozess der Kleinbauern, in verbessertes Saatgut zu investieren, nur eine untergeordnete Rolle spielt. Von den 15 potenziellen Faktoren, die die Investitionsentscheidung eines Kleinbauern bestimmen, gehören sowohl die wahrgenommene Eigentumssicherheit als auch der Besitz eines Landzertifikats zu den am seltensten ausgewählten Faktoren. Dies ist unabhängig davon, ob Haushalte an dem Landregistrierungsprojekt teilgenommen haben oder nicht. Eine Heterogenitätsanalyse zeigt, dass von Frauen geführte Haushalte formalisierten Landrechten eine wichtigere Rolle beimessen als von Männern geführte Haushalte. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural investment, decision-making, land titles, mental models, tenure security |
| JEL: | Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:284401&r=agr |
| By: | Allen IV, James |
| Abstract: | Across sub-Saharan Africa, countries with a greater percentage of overlapping days in their school and farming calendars also have lower primary school survival rates. In theory, greater overlap between the school and farming calendars should indeed reduce schooling investments, and farm-based child labor too, as it constrains the time allocation opportunity set for both productive activities. I causally identify such effects by leveraging a four-month shift to the school calendar in Malawi that exogenously changed the number of days that the school calendar overlapped with specific crop calendars, which differentially affected communities based on their pre-policy crop allotments. Using panel data for school-aged children, I find that a 10-day increase in school calendar overlap during peak farming periods significantly decreases school advancement by 0.34 grades (one lost grade for every three children) and the share of children engaged in peak-period household farming by 11 percentage points after four years. Secondary analyses reveal stronger negative schooling impacts for girls and poorer households driven by overlap with the labor-intensive planting period. A policy simulation illustrates that adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods is a highly cost-effective educational intervention to increase school participation by better accommodating farm labor demand. |
| Keywords: | education; child labour; households; crop production |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2235&r=agr |
| By: | Margherita Bove; Rute Martins Caeiro; Rachel Coelho; Sam Jones; Patricia Justino |
| Abstract: | Following the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production—a forced labour system that operated in colonial Mozambique from 1926 to 1961. During this period, the Portuguese colonial government granted geographic concessions to private companies, within which smallholder farmers were forced to cultivate cotton for payment in cash. |
| Keywords: | Long-run effects, Forced labour, Violence, Gender, Social capital, Regression discontinuity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-8&r=agr |
| By: | Macdonald, Kate; Diprose, Rachel; Grabs, Janina; Schleifer, Philip; Alger, Justin; Cashore, Benjamin William; Cisneros, Paúl; Delgado Pugley, Deborah; Garrett, Rachael; Hopkinson, William |
| Abstract: | Jurisdictional approaches (JAs) have emerged over the past decade as a significant mode of sustainable commodity governance, particularly in tropical forest countries. JAs are characterized by multistakeholder initiatives with substantial government involvement, aiming to integrate environmental, social, and economic objectives in land use management within territorial jurisdictions. Often framed as a progression beyond certification-based approaches, JAs offer a complementary strategy to supply chaindriven initiatives. Despite their novelty in the voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) context, JAs draw on longstanding policy agendas by governments and previous conservation efforts. Built upon initiatives like the United Nations' REDD+, contemporary JAs represent a convergence of different governance practices. This paper aims to provide conceptual clarity and a critical analysis of JAs, drawing on a global cross-commodity review of academic literature and policy publications. Five key themes are identified: conceptual analysis of JAs, inclusion and participation, the influence of social and political contexts, interactions with external governing institutions, and an assessment of impact and effectiveness. The synthesis highlights the flexibility of JAs and the diverse interpretations within the literature. The paper concludes with policy implications and avenues for future research, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of JAs' potential contribution to sustainability governance. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sgscdp:284370&r=agr |
| By: | Enrique Ide |
| Abstract: | I examine the implications of cross-market mergers of suppliers to intermediaries that bundle products for consumers. These mergers are controversial. Some argue that suppliers' products will be substitutes for intermediaries, despite not being substitutes for consumers. Others contend that because bundling makes products complements for consumers, products must be complements for intermediaries. I contribute to this debate by showing that two products can be complements for consumers but substitutes for intermediaries when the products serve a similar role in attracting consumers to purchase the bundle. This result leads to new recommendations and helps explain why cross-market hospital mergers raise prices. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.12575&r=agr |
| By: | Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance); Szerman, Dimitri; Assunção, Juliano |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impacts of ten recently built hydroelectric power plants in the Brazilian Amazon on deforestation. Using the inventory of all sites with hydropower potential yet undeveloped, we apply the synthetic control method to estimate the causal impact of each power plant on forest loss. Overall, the construction of the ten plants contributed to 21 percent of the observed forest loss within a 50-kilometer radius of the construction site. Notably, this impact is solely attributed to four plants. In at least three of these plants, construction licenses were granted despite technical recommendations against them. In contrast, the remaining plants, which received technical clearance from the environmental agency, have negligible effects. These findings highlight the effectiveness of robust environmental regulations and underscore their vulnerability to high-level political interference. |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6y7vk&r=agr |
| By: | Harstad, Bard (Stanford U) |
| Abstract: | International trade and natural resource exploitation interact in multiple ways. This paper first presents a dynamic game in which the South (S) exploits (e.g., deforests) in order to export (e.g., lumber or agricultural products). Because of negative externalities, the North might lose from trade, unless the resource has already been depleted. Anticipating this, S exploits more. All negative results are reversed if renegotiation-proof tariffs can be contingent on the size of the remaining resource stock. Larger gains from trade, and more attractive terms of trade, can be used to slow exploitation. Combined with export subsidies, the outcome is first best. |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F55 Q37 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4127&r=agr |
| By: | Yasmine van der Straten; Enrico Perotti; Frederick van der Ploeg; Rick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of voter support for climate policies aimed at containing the effect of climate risk, as weather conditions worsens at a time of rising economic inequality. Households differ in age, beliefs and income, and the scale of intervention to preserve habitable land reflects the preference of the majority coalition. Economic polarization tightens conditions for more households, while rising climate risk increases support for public adaptation. If beliefs on attainable impact are not too dispersed, an initially coalition of young and old pessimists might tip towards a coalition of old optimists and young pessimists, leading to a jump in support for public action. A steady rise in inequality may ultimately induce a second political tipping point, towards a coalition of the low-income old and young pessimists, although the effects on public adaptation are weaker. Public intervention is undermined by pessimism about the efficacy of public adaptation and the “tragedy of the horizon” effect, as voters only partially internalize benefits for future generations. This prevents public adaptation from converging to the long-term social optimum even when political support is highest. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation, economic inequality, tragedy of the horizon, political tipping points |
| JEL: | D63 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10961&r=agr |
| By: | Harstad, Bard (Stanford U); Storesletten, Kjetil (U of Minnesota Twin Cities) |
| Abstract: | This project analyzes how a political incumbent can be motivated to conserve rather than exploit a depletable resource. This political economy problem is relevant for tropical deforestation as well as for other environmental problems. It is shown that the larger is turnover of policymakers (e.g., because of political instability), the more the principal benefits from conservation by lending compared to flow payments (in return for lower deforestation). Conservation by lending exploits the political incumbent's impatience (and time inconsistency) by offering a loan with repayments that are contingent on the forest cover. |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4120&r=agr |
| By: | Klaus Desmet; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg |
| Abstract: | With average temperature ranging from -20°C at the North Pole to 30°C at the Equator and with global warming expected to reach 1.4°C to 4.5°C by the year 2100, it is clear that climate change will have vastly different effects across the globe. Given the abundance of land in northern latitudes, if population and economic activity could freely move across space, the economic cost of global warming would be greatly reduced. But spatial frictions are real: migrants face barriers, trade and transportation are costly, physical infrastructure is not footloose, and knowledge embedded in clusters of economic activity diffuses only imperfectly. Thus, the economic cost of climate change is intimately connected to these spatial frictions. Building on earlier integrated assessment models that largely ignored space, in the past decade there has been significant progress in developing dynamic spatial integrated assessment models (S-IAMs) aimed at providing a more realistic evaluation of the economic cost of climate change, both locally and globally. This review article discusses this progress and provides a guide for future work in this area. |
| JEL: | F1 Q5 R0 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32197&r=agr |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a key issue on the parliamentary agenda in Latin America and the Caribbean, and its proper management can boost economic development and foster social inclusion in the region. Legislators belonging to the Parliamentary Observatory on Climate Change and Just Transition (OPCC) therefore requested their parliamentary teams, under the supervision of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) office in Brasilia, to prepare this document, which analyses the framework legislation on climate change in eight countries, selected according to criteria of diversity and representation in OPCC —Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay— and highlights some good practices that offer opportunities for improvement. One of the conclusions drawn from a comparative analysis is that this type of legislation is generally enacted with a broad consensus, evolves over time, and tends to regulate institutional frameworks for climate policy and the economic aspects of climate change management. However, other elements appear less frequently, such as mitigation targets or comprehensive approaches to just transition strategies. |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:68878&r=agr |
| By: | Carina Cavalcanti (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University, Southport and Nathan, QLD, Australia.); Andreas Leibbrandt (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia.) |
| Abstract: | This field study investigates the characteristics and preferences of artisanal fishers who continue their profession in a lake afflicted by overfishing. We relate their economic preferences, fishing data, social networks, and socio-demographic information to their decision to either persist or discontinue fishing 4 and 15 years later. Our findings reveal that an increasing portion of fishers have chosen to cease fishing over time. We observe that the fisher’s risk preference is an important and robust factor for persistence: More risk-averse fishers are more likely to endure in their fishing endeavors. We also find evidence that better socially integrated, older and less educated individuals are more persistent. In contrast, we do not observe any notable relationships between persistence and the individual extent of overfishing or social preferences. These insights offer valuable novel knowledge regarding the evolving dynamics of resource user groups. By understanding these factors, policymakers and managers can optimize their approach to designing effective management practices and policies. |
| Keywords: | common pool resource, fishing, risk aversion |
| JEL: | C91 D81 H23 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2024-04&r=agr |
| By: | John C. Whitehead; Alicia Louis Cornicelli; Lisa Bragg; Rob Southwick |
| Abstract: | We use the contingent valuation method in a survey of Great Lakes anglers to estimate the willingness to pay for a Great Lakes recreational fishing trip. Employing various assumptions and models, we find that the willingness to pay for a trip ranges from $54 to $101 ($2020). We then combine the willingness to pay per trip estimates with an estimate of the number of trips and find that the aggregate economic value of Great Lakes fishing trips in the U.S. is $611 million. We conduct a sensitivity analysis over the estimates of willingness to pay and the number of trips and estimate that the 90% confidence interval around the mean estimate of $632 million is ($182.5, $1, 553) million. Key Words: Economics, Recreational fishing, Willingness to pay |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:24-11&r=agr |
| By: | Maris, Robbie (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, University College London (UCL)); Zack, Dorner (Department of Environmental Management, Lincoln University); Carlsson, Fredrik (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | Shifting individual behaviour is an important tool for addressing environmental issues and there is a wide literature evaluating interventions to encourage pro-environmental behaviour. One important but under-researched area is the effect of combining interventions to affect behaviour. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of two interventions – monetary incentives and nudges – on nature restoration volunteering. We use a two-by-two treatment design to evaluate the individual and combined effects of the interventions in a field experiment setting. We find that the monetary incentive significantly increases volunteering behaviour, despite concerns incentives may crowd out motivation, but that nudging alone is ineffective at shifting behaviour. However, there are considerable positive synergies between the monetary incentive and nudge. The monetary incentive becomes more than twice as effective when it is combined with a nudge. We find support for our theoretical prediction that this synergy arises because the nudge reduces motivational crowding out effects from the incentive. Our results have important policy implications, showing that concerns around motivation crowding out from monetary incentives could be mitigated by simple, low-cost nudges. |
| Keywords: | Field experiment; incentive; nature restoration; nudge; PEB; pro-environmental behaviour; synergy; volunteering |
| JEL: | C93 D91 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0842&r=agr |
| By: | Alizadeh, Armin; Schulz, Zhi-You Richard; Armbruster, Kevin Gerhard; Benlian, Alexander; Wiener, Martin |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:138879&r=agr |
| By: | Ponthiere, Gregory |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the Tragedy of the Commons - a Pareto-dominated overuse of a common resource - through the lenses of Stoicism, and, in particular, of the Stoic discipline of desires, according to which one should wish for nothing that is not under one's control. When the Stoic discipline of desires is modelled as a requirement of indifference between outcomes differing only on things out of control, Stoic agents are shown not to overuse the common resource. Alternatively, when the Stoic discipline of desires requires indifference between best outcomes under each circum- stance, the Nash equilibrium, if it exists, cannot be Pareto-dominated. Depending on how the Stoic discipline of desires is formalized, a recen- tering of agents towards things under their control either allows them to avoid overusing the commons, or makes the use of commons not "tragic". |
| Keywords: | Tragedy of the Commons, Stoicism, rationality, common resource game, land overuse |
| JEL: | Q24 D62 D91 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1405&r=agr |