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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒03‒18
forty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Kassel, Kathleen; Martin, Anikka; Scott, Sara; Sanguinett, Christopher; Symanski, Elaine; Bond, Shannon; Lanigan, Tiffany; Negron, Valerie; Smits, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | This collection of charts and maps presents key statistics about the farm sector, food spending and prices, food security and nutrition assistance, rural communities, agricultural production and trade, and the interaction of agriculture and natural resources. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Public Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersap:340217&r=agr |
| By: | Shin, Hyeseon |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339489&r=agr |
| By: | Aheeyar, Mohamed (International Water Management Institute); Jayathilake, Nilanthi (International Water Management Institute); Bucatariu, C.; Reitemeier, Maren (International Water Management Institute); Bandara, Ayomi (International Water Management Institute); Thiel, Felix (International Water Management Institute); Drechsel, Pay (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Agricultural trade; Poverty; Agrifood systems; Supply chains; Market disruptions; Export controls; World markets; Conflicts; Food prices; Fertilizers; Commodities; Food security; Healthy diets; Subsidies; Policies |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h052225&r=agr |
| By: | Chen, Sijia |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339501&r=agr |
| By: | Sydow, Sharon |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339525&r=agr |
| By: | Heimann, Tobias; Delzeit, Ruth |
| Abstract: | This study employs a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the effects of aquaculture production on agricultural markets, food prices and land use. We conduct a scenario analysis simulating, first, the fish sector developments expected by FAO; second, a rebuilding of sustainable wild fish stocks to achieve SDG 14; and third, a stronger expansion in aquaculture production with varying fishmeal supply. The results show direct effects of aquaculture production and limited fishmeal supply on agricultural production, land use, and food prices. Substituting fishmeal with plant-based feed when rebuilding sustainable fish stocks has lower effects on agricultural markets than growth in aquaculture production comparable to the first decade of this century. In addition, expanding aquaculture production increases prices for capture fish via fishmeal demand, instead of reducing capture fish prices by substituting consumer demand. Finally, rebuilding sustainable fish stocks has significant adverse effects on food prices in marine fish dependent regions in the southern hemisphere, and these regions need support in the transition period until sustainable fish stocks are achieved. The results of this study illustrate the interconnectedness of SDG 14 (life below water), SDG 15 (life on land) and SDG 2 (zero hunger). |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium (CGE), Aquaculture, Land use, Agricultural markets, Agricultural commodity trade, SDGs, Fishmeal, Soymeal |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:281986&r=agr |
| By: | Gohin, Alexandre |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339482&r=agr |
| By: | Corong, Erwin |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339558&r=agr |
| By: | Miller, Noah; Giri, Anil K.; Subedi, Dipak; Williams, Ryan |
| Abstract: | The first round of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP 1) provided payments to agricultural producers adversely affected by marketing losses caused by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Since the only producers eligible to receive a CFAP 1 payment were those who held unpriced inventory, ERS researchers examined the level of unpriced inventory held post-harvest 2019. Administrative USDA, Farm Service Agency (FSA) data on CFAP 1 applications and payments, and farm-level data on unpriced inventory were drawn from the 2019 Phase 3 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) to understand unpriced inventory held and CFAP 1 payments distributed to agricultural producers. For the majority of producers, significant levels of inventory existed post-harvest 2019. Since payments were made on the lower of 50 percent of production or the level of unpriced inventory, the majority of payments were made on production levels, from 58 percent of upland cotton payments to 81 percent of spring wheat payments. ERS researchers also analyzed the degree to which commodity-specific CFAP 1 rates reflected changes in county-average cash prices between January and April 2020 for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat. The share of counties in which the CFAP 1 rate exceeded 52.5 percent of the decline in cash prices ranged between 49.0 percent for corn and 99.9 percent for spring wheat. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersap:340102&r=agr |
| By: | Peng, Xue |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339559&r=agr |
| By: | Turner, Dylan; Tsiboe, Francis; Baldwin, Katherine; Williams, Brian; Dohlman, Erik; Astill, Gregory; Skorbiansky, Sharon Raszap; Abadam, Vidalina; Yeh, D. Adeline; Knight, Russell |
| Abstract: | This report provides a broad overview of the Federal programs that are designed to help agricultural producers manage risks to income or profitability caused by natural and economic forces. This report refers to these programs as “risk management programs.” Focus is given to risk management programs that are available under the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (i.e., 2018 Farm Bill). Thus, this publication serves as an update to previous work (Motamed et al., 2018), which focused on programs available under the Agricultural Act of 2014 (i.e., 2014 Farm Bill). Although each title of the Farm Bill contains programs that attenuate risk indirectly, most current targeted risk management programs are authorized under Title I: Commodity Programs or Title XI: Crop Insurance. Accordingly, this report primarily focuses on programs for crop and livestock producers that are available under these two titles. Available policies for managing production and price risk are discussed with recent trends in program enrollment and outlays provided. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:340216&r=agr |
| By: | Shin, Kiseok |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339491&r=agr |
| By: | Chellai, Fatih |
| Abstract: | Subject and purpose of work: In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyzes strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods: different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results: Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices . Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions: Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources. |
| Keywords: | Strategic Food;Food Reserve, Food security, Arab Countries. |
| JEL: | C1 E3 Q1 |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120067&r=agr |
| By: | Yotov, Yoto V. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339473&r=agr |
| By: | Mathilde Aubry (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie); Ben Hamadi (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie); Roland Condor (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie); Nazik Fadil (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie); Christine Fournes (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the results of a study on the digitalisation of the agri-food sector in a French region characterised by small-and medium-sized farms. Our results, which rely on a survey comparing digital practices in the agri-food sector with other sectors, reveal a paradox. While digitalisation is mostly perceived as a panacea capable of increasing agricultural productivity while respecting the planet, it is not widespread in the agri-food sector and even less than in other sectors of the same size. At the same time, the perceived impact of digitalisation is also lower than in other sectors. To increase the digitalisation of this sector, two elements emerge from our results: both the implementation of a global digital transformation strategy and membership of a professional association are required. Here, we refer to a broad definition of digitalisation, which includes organisational and social aspects, and does not only address technological dimensions. Our study challenges the technocentric and productive vision of digitalisation. It suggests that farmers' institutional environments and policies need to take a more holistic view of digitalisation to provide increased sense and generate engagement. |
| Keywords: | Empirical study, Organisational impact, Small business, Farms, Agri-food sectors, Digitalisation |
| Date: | 2022–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04430806&r=agr |
| By: | Ivanic, Maros |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339497&r=agr |
| By: | van Bergeijk, Peter A.G. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339476&r=agr |
| By: | Imbulana, Upali (International Water Management Institute); Aheeyar, Mohamed (International Water Management Institute); Amarasinghe, Upali A. (International Water Management Institute); Amarnath, Giriraj (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Irrigation systems; Villages; Irrigation management; Water governance; Arid zones; Sustainability; Water resources; Water management; Water security; Tanks; Drainage canals; River basins; Climate change |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h052495&r=agr |
| By: | Fosu, Felix |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339512&r=agr |
| By: | Aheeyar, Mohamed (International Water Management Institute); Jayathilake, Nilanthi (International Water Management Institute); Bucatariu, C.; Reitemeier, Maren (International Water Management Institute); Drechsel, Pay (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Food waste; Waste reduction; Stakeholder analysis; Food production; Governance; Waste management; Municipal authorities; Sustainable Development Goals; Goal 12 Responsible production and consumption |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h052481&r=agr |
| By: | Giri, Anil K.; Subedi, Dipek; Kassel, Kathleen |
| Abstract: | Government payments to the farm sector were a record-high $45.7 billion in calendar year 2020. COVID-related payments from two programs—USDA’s Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) at $23.5 billion and Small Business Administration’s (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) at $6.0 billion—accounted for nearly two-thirds of those 2020 payments. This report analyzes the distribution of direct Government payments relative to cash receipts in calendar year 2020 using Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients. We find that USDA COVID-related payments from CFAP relative to cash receipts at the State level were closely aligned with distribution of cash receipts. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersap:340041&r=agr |
| By: | Lohmar, Bryan |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339499&r=agr |
| By: | Adenäuer, Marcel |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339495&r=agr |
| By: | Hinz, Julian |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339475&r=agr |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Human activity has transformed the planet at a pace and scale unprecedented in recorded history, causing irreversible damage to communities and ecosystems. Countries have focused their capacities on economic growth, with too little attention to externalities in terms of environmental quality. The world will not avoid catastrophic warming unless wealthy nations accelerate their reduction of own emissions and help poorer countries to do the same. North America and Europe have contributed 62 % of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution, while Africa has contributed only 3%. However, it is in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the impacts are most severe and the people most vulnerable. Developed countries, in their own interests, should focus on ways to help developing countries phase out fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy. However, there are tensions between richer and poorer nations over who should pay the costs of global warming. Rich countries have a responsibility to act more quickly than their low-income counterparts. Yet governments continue to subsidise the use of fossil fuels, and banks and companies still invest more in polluting industries than in climate solutions. The consumption habits of the richest 10 % of people generate three times more pollution than those of the poorest 50 %. Emerging economies such as China and India, which plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and 2070 respectively, should join the developed world in accelerating emissions reductions. It is not just the way we produce and use energy that needs to change quickly. It's the way we consume food, the way we protect nature. It's everything, everywhere, all at once. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, especially in SSA countries where agriculture is central to the economy. Among the top eight countries with the highest cumulative net emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use are two SSA countries, Nigeria and DR Congo. Most of these emissions are embodied in trade and are caused by consumption in regions such as Europe, the United States and China. The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP27 will not be enough to turn the tide, nor will it necessarily translate into climate finance commitments, given the lack of progress in delivering the promised US$100 billion in annual climate finance from rich countries. African countries themselves need to reflect on their own strengths and step up their efforts in a timely and substantial way. |
| Keywords: | Environmental sustainability; Carbon neutrality; climate change; Carbon dioxide; environmental pollution; greenhouse gas; fossil fuel; renewable energy; Governance; European Union; highly industrialized countries; emerging economies; BRICS; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Africa; Nigeria; DR Congo; |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E23 E26 F18 F54 F64 G38 H23 H84 H87 I15 I31 K32 N17 N37 N57 O13 O44 O55 Q54 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120212&r=agr |
| By: | Heimann, Tobias; Argueyrolles, Robin; Reinhardt, Manuel; Schuenemann, Franziska; Söder, Mareike; Delzeit, Ruth |
| Abstract: | The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030, and bans the use of biofuels with a high risk of causing indirect land‐use change in high carbon stock areas (high ILUC‐risk criteria). The only biofuel feedstock affected by this criterion is palm oil. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model DART‐BIO for a scenario‐based policy analysis and evaluate a phase‐out of palm oil‐based biodiesel, and an additional phase‐out of soy oil‐based biodiesel in the EU. Our results show that the palm phase‐out has only a relatively small impact on global palm fruit production and total crop land use in tropical and subtropical regions, while the soy phase‐out leads to a comparable stronger decrease in global soy production, and a reduction in total cropland use in soy‐producing regions. Both policies lead to increased oilseed production in the EU. Therefore, farmer in Malaysia and Indonesia face a significantly reduced income. While European farmers profit the most, EU firms and households are confronted with higher expenditures. Finally, this study indicates that unilateral demand‐side regulations for a single good in a single sector is not sufficient for effective environmental protection. Enhanced binding sustainability criteria and certification schemes for the use of all vegetable oils in every sector and industry as well as improved protection schemes for sensible forest areas are necessary. |
| Keywords: | Biofuels, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), Land Use, Palm Oil, Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), Soy Oil |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:281955&r=agr |
| By: | Richa Richa; Ilan Noy; Subir Sen |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather induced migration is a growing concern for low and middle income countries due to the increased variability in the weather and the increase in the number of extreme weather disasters associated with climate change. The objective of this paper is to examine the inter-linkages between weather, disasters, and migration, in India. To examine the bidirectional flow of migrants across Indian states, we estimate gravity models with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), in line with previous studies’ methodology. We find that agriculture-dependent states and states with low level of human development are more likely to face out-migration driven by weather variations and disasters. Internal migration is seasonal, temporary and often short-distance in nature. We find statistical evidence that repeated exposure of vulnerable populations to extreme weather and disasters may ultimately lead to more permanent migration. This raises urgent questions concerning the efficacy of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies at the sub-national level. |
| Keywords: | climate, disasters, bilateral migration, NELM, gravity model |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10919&r=agr |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Bo Yeon Jang; Adam Storeygard; David N. Weil |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel method for assessing the effect of constraints imposed by spatially-fixed natural resources on aggregate economic output. We apply it to estimate and compare the projected effects of climate change and population growth over the course of the 21st century, by country and globally. We find that standard population growth projections imply larger reductions in income than even the most extreme widely-adopted climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Climate and population impacts are correlated across countries: climate change and population growth will have their most damaging effects in similar places. Relative to previous work on macro climate impacts, our approach has the advantages of being disciplined by a simple macro growth model that allows for adaptation and of assessing impacts via a large set of climate moments, not just annual average temperature and precipitation. Further, our estimated effects of climate are by construction independent of country-level factors such as institutions. |
| JEL: | J11 O44 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32145&r=agr |
| By: | Patrick Welch (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy); Enrique Silva (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy); Martim Smolka (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy); Amy Cotter (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy) |
| Abstract: | The urgent need to address climate change has prompted subnational governments worldwide to explore innovative financing mechanisms to fund climate investments. This paper examines land value capture (LVC) as a potential source of financing for local climate action, reviewing instruments and implications associated with their implementation. It demonstrates how public climate interventions, including low-carbon transportation and green infrastructure, can positively impact land values and how subnational governments can recover those increments through LVC for additional public benefit. The paper examines common LVC instruments and their rationale, exploring how these mechanisms have been employed in different jurisdictions to fund climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. The paper underscores the potential of LVC as a viable financing mechanism for subnational climate action, offering insights into its practical implementation. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2401&r=agr |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Human activity has transformed the planet at a pace and scale unprecedented in recorded history, causing irreversible damage to communities and ecosystems. Countries have focused their capacities on economic growth, with too little attention to externalities in terms of environmental quality. The world will not avoid catastrophic warming unless wealthy nations accelerate their reduction of own emissions and help poorer countries to do the same. North America and Europe have contributed 62 % of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution, while Africa has contributed only 3%. However, it is in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the impacts are most severe and the people most vulnerable. Developed countries, in their own interests, should focus on ways to help developing countries phase out fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy. However, there are tensions between richer and poorer nations over who should pay the costs of global warming. Rich countries have a responsibility to act more quickly than their low-income counterparts. Yet governments continue to subsidise the use of fossil fuels, and banks and companies still invest more in polluting industries than in climate solutions. The consumption habits of the richest 10 % of people generate three times more pollution than those of the poorest 50 %. Emerging economies such as China and India, which plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and 2070 respectively, should join the developed world in accelerating emissions reductions. It is not just the way we produce and use energy that needs to change quickly. It's the way we consume food, the way we protect nature. It's everything, everywhere, all at once. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, especially in SSA countries where agriculture is central to the economy. Among the top eight countries with the highest cumulative net emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use are two SSA countries, Nigeria and DR Congo. Most of these emissions are embodied in trade and are caused by consumption in regions such as Europe, the United States and China. The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP27 will not be enough to turn the tide, nor will it necessarily translate into climate finance commitments, given the lack of progress in delivering the promised US$100 billion in annual climate finance from rich countries. African countries themselves need to reflect on their own strengths and step up their efforts in a timely and substantial way. |
| Keywords: | changement climatique; neutralité carbone; dioxyde de carbone; pollution; combustibles fossiles; énergies renouvelables; gouvernance; Union européenne; pays industrialisés; économies émergentes; BRICS; Afrique subsaharienne; Afrique du Sud; Nigeria; RD Congo; |
| JEL: | E26 F16 F18 F54 F64 G38 H23 H84 H87 I15 I31 K32 N17 N37 N57 O13 O44 O55 Q54 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120231&r=agr |
| By: | Cavicchioli, Martina; Kramer, Berber; Trachtman, Carly |
| Abstract: | This issue brief introduces a conceptual framework to describe the factors that inform farmers’ varietal uptake choices, by integrating choice behavior alongside more contextual and technical aspects of seed uptake. The framework was developed to support qualitative data analysis for generating behavioral intelligence about farmers’ decision-making about crop varieties, which may be of use to government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and companies that operate in the seed sector. |
| Keywords: | plant breeding; smallholders; climate change adaptation; food security |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:issbrf:138050&r=agr |
| By: | Borisova, Tatiana; Litkowski, Carrie; Law, Jonathan; Mandalay, Okkar |
| Abstract: | USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) publicly releases forecasts and estimates of financial indicators that provide insights relevant to the financial health of the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on preliminary data and projections, the sector's income is forecast four times over a period spanning from February to the following February. Estimates are released later when more complete data are gathered, for example, from USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey. This report discusses the evolution of the 2020 farm sector income forecasts, illustrating how the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and related economic uncertainty affected the forecasts. USDA, ERS overestimated 2020 cash receipts and underestimated 2020 production expenses, generally resulting in an overprediction of the 2020 farm sector income relative to official estimates in all four forecasts. The first forecast (released in February 2020) was close to the estimated value because the dollar value of the overprediction of cash receipts nearly offset the underprediction of direct Government payments. In contrast, the last 2020 farm income forecasts (released in February 2021) significantly deviated from the later estimates (released in September 2021), contrary to the historical evidence showing the forecasts converge to the estimates over the forecasting cycle. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics, Production Economics, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersap:340103&r=agr |
| By: | Ivo Steimanis; Esther Blanco; Björn Vollan |
| Abstract: | In this study, we provide causal evidence on the capacity of monetary incentives to encourage real-life local leaders managing water and land to improve their procedural fairness. We report results from incentivized decisions and surveys conducted with local leaders in rural Namibia (n=64) and their constituents (n=384). Conditional payments are introduced in a setting where leaders can select among different rules that vary in their perceived procedural fairness in distributing a monetary allocation. In a within-subject design we randomly introduce a small or large conditional payment for allowing for a vote. The majority of leaders (64%) embrace democratic decision-making initially. With payments there is a significant reduction in autocratic leadership, by switching mainly to appearing democratic while keeping control, but with no significant increase in truly democratic leadership. Explorative analyses reveal that the effects are mainly driven by extrinsically motivated leaders to govern, who are less democratic initially and who reap the conditional payments without effectively including constituents in the decision process. Our findings suggest that simply introducing conditional payments for democratic choices may not be sufficient to promote democratization of local governance for the management of natural resources, and caution against their blueprint use in pluralistic governance settings. |
| Keywords: | local governance of common pool resources, social norms, conditional payments, economic experiment |
| JEL: | D7 Q2 Q5 C9 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2024-03&r=agr |
| By: | Fatouros, Nikos |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect that higher natural disaster frequency has on economic outcomes. Even if there is clear evidence that natural disaster incidents are not only going to be more frequent but will also start affecting a wider pool of countries, research has not yet analyzed the economic impact of the interaction between climate change and more frequent extreme rare events. With this study, we try to unveil the mechanisms through which natural disasters and climate change are interconnected, as well as provide policy insights regarding the adoption of greener inputs, in the form of green capital. Our findings suggest that raising temperatures are expected to negatively affect consumption as well as increase debt. We also show that under “green” technology adaptation, countries are projected to achieve higher levels of consumption and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Green Technologies, Natural Disasters, Climate Change, Sustainable Growth |
| JEL: | E60 O11 Q51 Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120162&r=agr |
| By: | Brandi, Clara; Holzer, Kateryna; Morin, Jean-Frédéric; van Asselt, Harro; Weber, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Linking trade to environmental goals is gaining momentum. Ever more discussion about trade and climate interlinkages are prevalent in both the trade and climate policy communities. The dedicated Trade Day at the 28th Conference to the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) underlines the growing interest in trade and climate interlinkages. Given the urgency of the climate crisis, using the toolbox of trade policies to help tackle climate change should be a priority. Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are a promising trade policy tool to accelerate the transition toward greener economies and help address the climate crisis. PTAs - agreements that reduce trade barriers among their parties - are mushrooming around the world and they include an increasing number of environmental provisions. These provisions in PTAs can help reduce environmentally harmful subsidies, incentivise the green transition, and favour the diffusion of environmental technologies. But so far, climate-related environmental provisions in PTAs have not been designed in ways that enable them to live up to this potential. Many such climate provisions in PTAs remain vague, weak, and not very innovative. This policy brief outlines why we should use PTAs as a policy tool; discusses pitfalls of their current design; and shows how negotiators should improve the design of climate-related provisions to unlock their full potential. We discuss three types of provisions that have the potential to strengthen climate protection through PTAs: ossil fuel subsidies: Climate provisions in PTAs should seek to eliminate or phase down fossil fuel subsidies, provide for Special and Differential Treatment (SDT) for developing countries, and increase transparency on fossil fuel subsidies. Environmental goods and services (EGS): Climate provisions in PTAs should eliminate tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers for EGS, offer SDT for developing countries in the context of EGS, and should incentivise limate-friendly production through preferential tariffs. Investment: Climate provisions in PTAs should be designed so as to shield climate policy measures from legal challenges by providing a treaty-wide exception specifically for climate policy measures, reaffirming the right to regulate explicitly in relation to climate policy measures or carving out measures taken to address climate change from the application of Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). We also outline five general policy recommendations for promoting the effectiveness of climate provisions in PTAs: 1) Prioritise win-win solutions; 2) facilitate the participation of non-state actors; 3) strengthen capacity-building and assistance; 4) enhance impact assessment, and knowledge diffusion; and 5) promote compliance and enforcement. |
| Keywords: | trade & investment, climate change |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:283117&r=agr |
| By: | Nicola Garbarino; Sascha Möhrle; Florian Neumeier; Marie-Theres von Schickfus |
| Abstract: | Dealing with the consequences of climate change will put an increasing burden on public and private fnances. We use the example of floods in a survey experiment among 8, 000 German households to elicit households’ preferences for climate adaptation policies. In Germany, as in many countries, we observe low insurance penetration in combination with high ex-post state aid in case of large events. We fnd that prior expectations of flood aid, conditional on severe flooding, are low. Providing information about high ex-post aid increases support for a mandatory flood insurance scheme, which is seen as fairer compared to public aid. We also show that this result is driven by respondents updating their expectations, and reactions are stronger among uninsured households in low-risk areas. In contrast, information about announcements to cut flood aid does not signifcantly alter expectations and views. We conclude that fairness concerns are relevant in the discussion of public and private responsibilities in dealing with climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, public aid, mandatory insurance, survey experiment |
| JEL: | G52 H23 H84 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_406&r=agr |
| By: | Burani, Nadia; Mantovani, Andrea |
| Abstract: | We consider a duopolistic market in which a green firm competes with a brown rival, and both firms offer vertically differentiated products. Consumers are heterogeneous in both their willingness to pay for intrinsic quality and environmental concern. The latter is positively related to the green firm's market share, giving rise to a green network e¤ect. We characterize how price and quality schedules are set and how consumers sort between the two firms at the market equilibrium. When considering pollution both from consumption and production, we compute total welfare and evaluate the impact of an emission tax and a subsidy for the consumption of the green good. Our analysis demonstrates that efficiency can be achieved through an emission tax, which restores the optimal differential between firms' intrinsic qualities, combined with a discriminatory subsidy, which restores the optimal sorting of consumers. |
| Keywords: | bidimensional product differentiation; environmental concern; green network effect; pollution emissions; price discrimination; subsidy |
| JEL: | D21 L13 H21 Q58 Q51 |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129135&r=agr |
| By: | van Cranenburgh, Sander; Meyerhoff, Jürgen; Rehdanz, Katrin; Wunsch, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Efficient experimental designs aim to maximise the information obtained from stated choice data to estimate discrete choice models' parameters statistically efficiently. Almost without exception efficient experimental designs assume that decision-makers use a Random Utility Maximisation (RUM) decision rule. When using such designs, researchers (implicitly) assume that the decision rule used to generate the design has no impact on respondents' choice behaviour. This study investigates whether the decision rule assumption underlying an experimental design affects respondents' choice behaviour. We use four stated choice experiments on coastal adaptation to climate change: Two are based on experimental designs optimised for utility maximisation and two are based on experimental designs optimised for a mixture of RUM and Random Regret Minimisation (RRM). Generally, we find that respondents place value on adaptation measures (e.g., dykes and beach nourishments). We evaluate the models' fits and investigate whether some choice tasks particularly invoke RUM or RRM decision rules. For the latter, we develop a new sampling-based approach that avoids the confounding between preference and decision rule heterogeneity. We find no evidence that RUM-optimised designs invoke RUM-consistent choice behaviour. However, we find a relationship between some of the attributes and decision rules, and compelling evidence that some choice tasks invoke RUM consistent behaviour while others invoke RRM consistent behaviour. This implies that respondents’ choice behaviour and choice modelling outcomes are not exogenous to the choice tasks, which can be particularly critical when information on preferences is used to inform actual decision-making on a sensitive issue of common interest as climate change. |
| Keywords: | Coastal adaptation, Climate change, Experimental design theory, Decision rules, Random regret minimisation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:281987&r=agr |
| By: | Guibril Zerbo |
| Abstract: | This article examines the determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for flood insurance, focusing on the role of information and information sources. We use data from a September 2022 field survey of 593 individuals in urban Burkina Faso. We find that 71.3% of individuals are willing to spend money on insurance. But many individuals have a lower willingness to pay than the expected loss. This suggests that individuals would appreciate insurance cover, but do not have sufficient income to pay the insurance premium. We also find that being well informed about flood risk increases the likelihood of paying the expected loss for insurance. However, obtaining flood information from television increases WTP whereas radio does not. These results suggest the need to take information sources into account when developing effective communication policies against these risks. Another result is that recourse to the family and risk aversion reduce PAD. Finally, trust in insurers and ambiguity aversion increase individuals' chances of paying the expected loss for insurance. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, Flood risk; Insurance, Willingness to pay; Information |
| JEL: | D81 D83 G22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-7&r=agr |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid |
| Abstract: | We think of the cleanup of water pollution in the Ganges river in India as a local public good and ask whether this cleanup ought to be decentralized or centralized. We depart from the existing literature on this subject in two important ways. First, we allow the heterogeneous spillovers from cleaning up water pollution to be positive or negative. Second, we focus on water pollution cleanup in three cities---Kanpur, Prayagraj, Varanasi---through which the Ganges flows. Our model sheds light on two broad issues. First, we characterize efficient water pollution cleanup in the three cities, we describe how much water pollution is cleaned up under decentralization, we describe the set of cleanup amounts under decentralization, and we discuss why pollution cleanup under decentralization is unlikely to be efficient. Second, we focus on centralization. We derive the tax paid by the inhabitants of the three cities for pollution cleanup, the benefit to a city inhabitant from water pollution cleanup, how majority voting determines how much pollution is cleaned up when the spillovers from cleanup are uniform, and finally, we compare the amounts of pollution cleaned up with majority voting with the efficient pollution cleanup amounts. |
| Keywords: | Centralization, Cost Sharing, Decentralization, Ganges River, Water Pollution |
| JEL: | O13 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120175&r=agr |
| By: | Taryn Dinkelman; Grace Kumchulesi; Martine Mariotti |
| Abstract: | Between 1967 and 1974, a bilateral treaty increased circular labor migration from Malawi to South Africa by 200%, bringing over 53 million USD in earnings into origin communities. A deadly migrant worker plane crash in 1974 ended these flows and led to migrant repatriation. We study how this shock affected local labor markets. In regions receiving more migrant capital after the crash, workers, particularly women, shifted from farming into non-farm work over thirty years. Investments in non-farm physical and human capital contribute to these sectoral changes. This natural experiment shows that temporary capital inflows can permanently reshape rural labor markets. |
| JEL: | J21 J24 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32144&r=agr |
| By: | Anne A. Gharaibeh (Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan); Tareq N. Aldela’a (Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan) |
| Abstract: | The global population has grown rapidly, causing urbanization and rural habitat loss. Current research investigates the causes for habitat loss and fragmentation in the Bani-Kinanah County, Irbid, Jordan. It defines loss and fragmentation as natural or anthropogenic separation of green land. It also examines decision-makers' challenges and proposes greenways to reduce habitat loss and fragmentation. The study utilized snowball sampling to interview decision-makers and ArcGIS software to digitize aerial photographs. A literature review and criteria analysis determined greenway and green corridor locations. The study compared digitized aerial photos from 2005 and 2021 for several villages to assess built-up areas, street construction, and ecological natural corridors. Agricultural footprints were also examined. Interviewing the decision-makers revealed that habitat loss and fragmentation are attributed to physical and non-physical factors. they suggested modifications to natural habitat regulations and laws, public awareness of their importance and the causes of fragmentation, and physical interventions to minimize negative effects to prevent habitat fragmentation and loss. This study provides a foundation for understanding habitat fragmentation and loss and proposing solutions. The study recommends community involvement and collaboration with nature/environmental associations to monitor and prevent changes. It also proposes greenways and green corridors to sustain natural habitats. |
| Keywords: | Habitat loss and Fragmentation, greenway planning, rural development, Jordan |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0295&r=agr |