nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒02
thirty-one papers chosen by
Angelo Zago, Università degli Studi di Verona


  1. Constraints facing rural poultry production in PNG: The role of input suppliers By Fang, Peixun; Benny, Dickson; Ovah, Raywin; Roberts, Arthur; Schmidt, Emily; Solomon, Elly
  2. "Unlocking the Potential of Technological Innovations for Sustainable Agriculture in Developing Countries: Enhancing Resource Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability" By Yeboah, Samuel
  3. Pass-through of cocoa prices along the supply chain: What's left for farmers in Côte D'Ivoire? By Bensch, Gunther; Kaestner, Kathrin; Vance, Colin
  4. Taming wildfires in the context of climate change: The case of Portugal By OECD
  5. A multi-sectoral integrated modelling framework for assessing greenhouse gas emissions and removals in the European Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Sectors By BARBOSA Ana Luisa; SALVUCCI Raffaele; RÓZSAI Máté; NEUWAHL Frederik; MUBAREKA Sarah; HRISTOV Jordan; BLUJDEA Viorel; PILLI Roberto; HILFERINK Maarten; WITZKE Heinz Peter; KESTING Monika; GRASSI Giacomo; FIORESE Giulia; PEREZ DOMINGUEZ Ignacio
  6. An Agronomic and Economic Analysis of Annual Ryegrass Management Practices in North-Texas Soybean Production By Flowers, Henry; Lopez, Jose A.; Drake, David; Jones, Curtis
  7. Confluence of climate, violence, disease, and cost shocks: vulnerability of and impacts on Nigerian Maize Traders By Vargas, Carolina M.; Reardon, Thomas; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.
  8. Examining the interplay between agri-food and trade competitiveness: A review of literature By Ajmani, Manmeet
  9. THE IMPACT OF MINING AND PLANTATION ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE ON THE CLEAN WATER CRISIS IN INDONESIA By naryono, endang
  10. Poverty impacts of food price increases in Burkina Faso By Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
  11. Exploring Disparate Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic and its Containment Measures on Food Security within Ethiopia By Debalke, Negash Mulatu
  12. The Paradox of Gender Equality and Economic Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Land Rights By Evelyn F. Wamboye
  13. Poverty impacts of food price increases in Kenya By Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
  14. Poverty impacts of food price increases in Niger By Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
  15. Poverty impacts of food price increases in Mali By Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
  16. Macroeconomic Impact of the War in Ukraine and of High Commodity Prices across Countries By Markus Haacker
  17. EU-wide comparison of the characteristics and presentation of branded food products (2021) By Kjersti Nes; Federico Antonioli; Federica Di Marcantonio; Pavel Ciaian
  18. Poverty impacts of food price increases in Ethiopia By Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
  19. Does hotter temperature increase poverty and inequality? Global evidence from subnational data analysis By Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Cong Nguyen, Minh; Trinh, Trong-Anh
  20. Socioeconomic impact of low-gluten celiac-safe wheat developed by gene editing By SANCHEZ FERNANDEZ Berta; BARRO Francisco; SMULDERS Marinus J.m.; GILISSEN Luud J.w.j.; RODRIGUEZ CEREZO Emilio
  21. Who (Actually) Gets the Farm? Intergenerational Farm Succession in the United States By Adrian Haws; David R. Just; Joseph Price
  22. Quantifying Climate Change Loss and Damage Consistent with a Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases By Marshall Burke; Mustafa Zahid; Noah Diffenbaugh; Solomon M. Hsiang
  23. Military Expenditure, Governance, and Environmental Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Cheikh T. Ndour
  24. The architecture of the Sudanese agricultural sector and its contribution to the economy between 1990 and 2021 [in Arabic] By Alhelo, Alzaki; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.
  25. Unpacking the green box: Determinants of Environmental Policy Stringency in European countries By Francisco Serranito; Donatella Gatti; Gaye-Del Lo
  26. Exposures to climate change’s physical risks in Chile By Magdalena Cortina; Carlos Madeira
  27. Creating a low carbon economy through green supply chain management: investigation of willingness-to-pay for green products from a consumer’s perspective By Xia, Senmao; Ling, Yantao; de Main, Leanne; Lim, Ming K.; Li, Gendao; Zhang, Peter; Cao, Mengqiu
  28. Energising Environmental Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of Governance Quality in Mitigating the Environmental Impact of Energy Poverty By Stephen K. Dimnwobi; Kingsley I. Okere; Favour C. Onuoha; Benedict I. Uzoechina; Chukwunonso Ekesiobi; Ebele S. Nwokoye
  29. The EU estimated agricultural balance sheets By CAIVANO Arnaldo; CASTRO MALET Javier; GORRÍN GONZÁLEZ Celso Jesús; PORCELLA-ČAPKOVIČOVÁ Andrea
  30. Poverty impacts of food price increases in Nigeria By Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
  31. Fair compensation in large-scale land acquisitions: fair or fail? By De Maria, Marcello; Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.; Zanello, Giacomo

  1. By: Fang, Peixun; Benny, Dickson; Ovah, Raywin; Roberts, Arthur; Schmidt, Emily; Solomon, Elly
    Abstract: The average consumption of protein foods in Papua New Guinea (PNG) remains insufficient to meet nutritious diet guidelines, especially in rural areas. While an expanding literature has demonstrated that poultry is a cost-efficient animal source food to increase protein intake, rural households in PNG face high prices at the market for poultry meat. Similarly, the high price of poultry production inputs constrains greater uptake of rural poultry production. PNG’s heavy reliance on feed (and feed input) imports, as well as high transportation costs and insufficient rural manufacturing and processing infrastructure creates limited opportunities for rural subsistence and commercial poultry production growth. Objective: There is a lack of value chain studies to understand the feasibility of expanding the local mini livestock feed mill model in PNG to increase poultry feed supply in underserved areas. This study builds from earlier work on rural livestock feed infrastructure programs, and aims to fill the knowledge gap on the opportunities and constraints for expanding domestic livestock feed production and distribution via rural mini feed mills. Method: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with 8 mini mills and 13 poultry farmers across 4 highland provinces during October and November 2022. We synthesize the interview transcriptions of the qualitative interviews in tandem with quantitative analysis of food consumption and agri-food trade data, as well as the authors’ own field observations in this paper. Results: The in-depth interviews showed that the poultry farmers who purchased from local mini feed mills substantially lowered their feed costs, resulting in greater gross profits compared to rural poultry farmers that only sourced feed from commercial feed suppliers. However, the mini feed mills that we interviewed outlined a series of challenges in sustaining rural feed mills in PNG. The main challenges of running a successful mill included feed mill equipment procurement, electricity reliability, reliable raw ingredient supply, mini mill retailing to secure a client base, and adequate information about feed formulation. We identified two potential approaches that have overcome many of the identified challenges, that could be replicated and adapted to expand mini feed mill operations in the Highlands. The first approach is a farmer cooperative model that incorporates credit and feed delivery services to cooperative farmers. In doing so, they are able to better estimate volume demand for processed feed and accommodate feed production accordingly. The second approach follows a lead firm model, whereby a local farm supply retail outlet is expanding its business to include livestock feed production and supply, overcoming equipment procurement constraints given their previously developed business model focused on farm implement supply. Our evaluation provides detailed costs and benefits of both approaches for potential expansion of these livestock feed producer and distributor models.
    Keywords: PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; nutrition; protein; rural areas; poultry; prices; production; inputs; value chain; food; livestock; feed supply chains; feed processing; interviews; infrastructure; equipment
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2193&r=agr
  2. By: Yeboah, Samuel
    Abstract: This paper examines the potential of technological innovations in promoting sustainable agriculture in developing countries. With challenges like population growth, climate change, and limited resources, there is a critical need for efficient and environmentally sustainable farming practices. Technological innovations offer promising solutions to address these challenges and enhance resource efficiency while minimizing negative environmental impacts. The paper emphasizes the urgency of leveraging technology to overcome barriers faced by developing countries in agriculture. It discusses various technological innovations that can improve resource efficiency, including precision farming techniques, advanced irrigation systems, remote sensing, and data analytics. These innovations enable farmers to optimize resource utilization, reduce waste, and improve crop yields. Environmental sustainability in agriculture is also highlighted, with a focus on technological solutions to minimize soil degradation, water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. The paper explores eco-friendly practices such as organic farming, agroforestry, and biopesticides that can be implemented using technology to promote sustainability. Challenges to adopting technological innovations in developing countries are discussed, such as limited access to technology, lack of infrastructure, and financial constraints. The paper emphasizes the need for supportive policies, capacity building, and partnerships to facilitate technology transfer and widespread adoption. Overall, the paper advocates for harnessing the power of technological innovations to enhance resource efficiency and environmental sustainability in agriculture. It calls for tailored approaches, farmer empowerment, and knowledge sharing. Collaboration among governments, research institutions, private sectors, and civil society is essential to create an enabling environment for technology-driven sustainable agriculture. The findings underscore the potential of technological innovations to contribute to food security, poverty alleviation, and resilient livelihoods in developing countries. By embracing these innovations and addressing associated challenges, developing countries can unlock their agricultural potential and create a sustainable future.
    Keywords: technological innovations, sustainable agriculture, developing countries, resource efficiency, environmental sustainability
    JEL: O13 Q01 Q16 Q55
    Date: 2023–07–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118215&r=agr
  3. By: Bensch, Gunther; Kaestner, Kathrin; Vance, Colin
    Abstract: Cocoa farmers in Côte d'Ivoire face precarious livelihoods. Low farm-gate prices that are a fraction of the world market price compel land-extensive farming practices that perpetuate a cycle of poverty and environmental degradation. This paper seeks to understand the drivers of the low pass-through of cocoa prices in the world's largest cocoa-producing country and to identify potential inefficiencies and remedies. The analysis comprehensively covers price formation along all segments of the in-country supply chain. Our approach couples econometric analyses using secondary cocoa price data and primary farm household survey data with qualitative assessments of institutional factors specific to the cocoa value chain in Côte d'Ivoire. Notwithstanding the country's highly regulated system of setting cocoa prices, we do not find evidence for inefficiencies that would explain persistently low farm-gate prices. Nor do we find that the recently introduced ''Living Income Differential'', a price premium on internationally traded cocoa, has benefited farmers. We conclude by advocating for the international cocoa industry to strengthen its development programmes in cocoa-growing communities, complemented by government provision of infrastructure and other public goods. Such efforts can ultimately serve to increase the opportunity cost of cocoa production, drawing farmers into other employment sectors while improving the resilience and livelihoods of those who remain.
    Keywords: Cocoa, pass-through, price, policy impact, value chain
    JEL: O12 O13 Q11
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:1035&r=agr
  4. By: OECD
    Abstract: The frequency and severity of extreme wildfires are on the rise in Portugal, causing unprecedented disruption and increasingly challenging the country’s capacity to contain losses and damages. These challenges are set to keep growing in the context of climate change, highlighting the need to scale up wildfire prevention and climate change adaptation. This paper provides an overview of Portugal’s wildfire policies and practices and assesses the extent to which wildfire management in the country is evolving to adapt to growing wildfire risk under climate change.
    Keywords: climate change adaptation, prevention, wildfire
    Date: 2023–09–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaac:37-en&r=agr
  5. By: BARBOSA Ana Luisa (European Commission - JRC); SALVUCCI Raffaele (European Commission - JRC); RÓZSAI Máté (European Commission - JRC); NEUWAHL Frederik (European Commission - JRC); MUBAREKA Sarah (European Commission - JRC); HRISTOV Jordan (European Commission - JRC); BLUJDEA Viorel (European Commission - JRC); PILLI Roberto (European Commission - JRC); HILFERINK Maarten; WITZKE Heinz Peter; KESTING Monika; GRASSI Giacomo (European Commission - JRC); FIORESE Giulia (European Commission - JRC); PEREZ DOMINGUEZ Ignacio (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture (mainly methane and nitrous oxide emissions) and from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF, mainly carbon dioxide emissions) have been traditionally addressed by different legislative initiatives, estimated through different accounting rules and assessed by different modelling tools, despite potentially arising from the same land parcel. This has created a fragmented view of how climate change impacts land-based actions at both the EU and Member State level. The revised LULUCF regulation proposed by the European Commission, and recently approved by the European Parliament and the Council, represents a step for the progressive integration of the LULUCF and agriculture sectors into a the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sectors, under the EU's overall emission reduction targets. The aim of this report is to test the integration of several sectoral modelling tools in a consistent manner for assessing GHG emissions and removals of the European AFOLU sectors. This should allow for a better understanding of the complex interactions between these different sectoral components and to inform decision-making about the overall emission mitigation potential that these sectors can provide in the future.
    Date: 2023–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc132798&r=agr
  6. By: Flowers, Henry; Lopez, Jose A.; Drake, David; Jones, Curtis
    Abstract: An analysis of the effect of ryegrass cover crop on no-till soybean yield, grain density, and height; and profitability of harvesting ryegrass for forage. Annual ryegrass is a cool-season annual bunchgrass, which due to its high palatability and digestibility is valuable for forage. Grazing cover crops is economically viable when the returns offset establishment costs without reducing crop yields. Six ryegrass management practices prior to planting soybean were evaluated: volunteer ryegrass as a cover crop, ryegrass forage harvested for hay, ryegrass forage grazing simulation, and three different herbicides applications that vary in timing (December, February, and March application). All forage and cover crop plots were terminated with Glyphosate or Paraquat two weeks prior to planting soybeans. There were no statistical differences in soybean yields, soybean height, and soybean grain density between annual ryegrass cover cropping and herbicide treatments. The results also indicated that ryegrass forage can produce up to 2, 741 kg ha-1 of dry matter that if sold as hay can generate a profit between $230 and $244 ha-1 . Similarly, if land is leased for grazing, ryegrass could generate a profit of $63 ha-1 if its dry matter production is 1, 006.70 kg.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea22:338474&r=agr
  7. By: Vargas, Carolina M.; Reardon, Thomas; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.
    Abstract: Using unique primary survey data on 1100 Nigerian maize traders, we use probit models to estimate the probability of experiencing exogenous shocks and its relationship to trader characteristics (gender, size, and location), and traders vulnerability, measured as the probability of experiencing severe impacts. We study five types of exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price changes, spoilage, and COVID-19. We analyze the relationship among these shocks and the trader characteristics that make traders more vulnerable. We find traders are prone to experience more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. This is especially the case for price shocks, which are often accompanied by violence, climate, and COVID shocks. The poorer Northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks, with Northern traders experiencing more price shocks, and Southern traders more violence shocks but in their long supply chains from the North. Women are more prone to experience a violence shock and men, a severe climate event. A limitation is that the data only analyze the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantify lost income. A key policy implication is the need for a differentiated response and prevention strategy based on the particular mix of shocks and types of traders and regions.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Industrial Organization, International Development, Marketing, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2023–08–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midasp:338499&r=agr
  8. By: Ajmani, Manmeet
    Abstract: Every nation strives to establish its competitiveness in the global agri-food trade. However, defining and quantifying this concept remains a challenge, lacking a universally accepted description or a consolidated metric. Among the prevalent gauges in international research are the Balassa index and its adaptations (such as revealed trade advantage, revealed competitiveness, normalized revealed comparative advantage, and revealed symmetric comparative advantage), alongside diverse indicators tied to exports and imports (like the Grubel-Lloyd index or trade balance index). This comprehensive literature review identifies these metrics and highlights key determinants for bolstering competitiveness in agri-food trade. Foremost among these factors is the presence of supportive legislation and effective trade policies, followed by the production of higher value-added and more sophisticated goods, as well as efficient and profitable manufacturing processes. While the European Union (EU) and its member states feature prominently in the studied materials, the analysis extends to encompass candidate countries and significant EU trade partners including Canada, China, and ASEAN nations. As such, several of these insights could potentially be applied more broadly.
    Keywords: Agri-food trade, trade competitiveness, international trade
    JEL: F13 F17 O32
    Date: 2023–08–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118396&r=agr
  9. By: naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI)
    Abstract: Population growth, industrialization, mining and plantations which are developing at a very high rate have had a very extraordinary impact on human survival, one of which is the clean water crisis, with the reason that economic development green lands have become settlements and offices, mountains have been dredged for minerals to be used as mines and what's sad is that forests are being burned to open plantations and what's worse is that forest burning is being carried out by big companies not by small communities and the impact is being felt now, the rivers are black because of industrial waste, the sea is filled with household waste and fog. the excruciating smoke caused by forest fires has resulted in losses for the community. One of the impacts that is currently being felt is the crisis of clean water for consumption. The long drought resulted in reduced water absorption as a result of which farmers could not plant rice or even failed their crops due to drought. Overlapping inter-sectoral regulations, indecisive laws and low public awareness of the environment have resulted in incalculable environmental pollution and natural damage.
    Date: 2023–08–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:c8spf&r=agr
  10. By: Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
    Abstract: The prices of many agricultural commodities, including many staple grains, started to increase in mid-2020 partly due to supply chain bottlenecks associated with the outbreak of Covid-19. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 caused an additional spike in commodity prices, particularly wheat and maize. This brief estimates the impact of these price increases on poverty in Burkina Faso. It is part of a series of six such briefs that estimate the poverty impact of higher world prices for staple grains. The other briefs cover Kenya, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c). We use the same approach in all six country studies. The analysis starts by exploring the effect of the rise in international grain prices on the real price of selected grains in the domestic markets of the country. Next, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household in a nationally representative survey, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) are estimated based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below. The methods are described in more detail in a method brief.
    Keywords: BURKINA FASO; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; agricultural products; commodities; grains; supply chains; Coronavirus; coronavirus; disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; prices; poverty; markets; Ukraine
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:21&r=agr
  11. By: Debalke, Negash Mulatu
    Abstract: Covid-19 affects food security of households through different pathways. Several studies from many developing countries, including Africa, show that the pandemic has had heterogeneous impacts on food security across various groups of households, livelihood options and sectors in the economy. This study aims to examine the trajectory of and potentially differential impacts of the early days of the pandemic on food security, outcome variable, in Ethiopia along households’ location or sectors, ownership of assets and varying livelihoods and income sources. Also, the government’s containment measures such as movement restrictions with-in the country, curfew or lockdown, and closure of non-essential businesses, are the key explanatory and indicator variables in the estimation. Using the World Bank’s nationally representative harmonized panel data on households drawn from the high frequency phone survey (HFPS), the study undertakes fixed effects regression. The results indicated that the Covid-19 pandemic had a statistically significant impact on overall food insecurity in Ethiopia and households have experienced a declining trend in food insecurity along the survey rounds. Within country travel restriction has a statistically significant and heterogeneous impact on the outcome variable, i.e. probability of households’ being moderately/severely food insecure. Households who had rental income sources were significantly exposed to food insecurity due to the pandemic. Moreover, the results identified the significant heterogeneity of the impacts between households with and without receiving remittance and assistance. The finding suggests the important role of social protection in guarding households from deteriorating trajectory of food insecurity during the pandemic in the short term. Overall, the paper determined that mobility restriction, ownership of land, rental income, remittance, and assistance are statistically significant indicators of heterogeneity of the pandemic’s impacts on food security. Finally, it points that the findings of can be used to informing short term and medium-term policy responses and interventions by the government of Ethiopia and international donor organizations.
    Keywords: Covid-19; pandemic; probability; impacts; food insecurity; heterogeneity; livelihood
    JEL: I31
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118288&r=agr
  12. By: Evelyn F. Wamboye (Penn State University; Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: Equal rights and proactive protection of the right for women and girls to inherit and own land in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is important to the expansion of the capabilities of women and girls to lead the kind of lives they value, and have reason to value. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the role of women’s ownership and access to land in SSA in determining gender equality and women’s economic and social outcomes, and provides suggestions to inform effective gender-sensitive land policies. Using cross-sectional regression analysis, we find that ownership of land by women positively contributes to women’s absolute employment. Conversely, results from pairwise correlation showed that lack of ownership of land by women is highly correlated with increased women’s unemployment. Despite these findings, the proportion of women who own land in SSA is 40 percent lower than that of men, whereby about 30 percent of women own land in SSA, compared to 70 percent of men. Moreover, women usually acquire this land either through purchase from the market system or marriage.
    Keywords: Land inheritance, gender equality, sub-Saharan Africa, Land ownership
    JEL: B54 J16 J21 O55
    Date: 2021–12–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:601&r=agr
  13. By: Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
    Abstract: Kenya is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key staple grains such as maize and wheat, both because these are important in diets and because Kenya depends on im ports of these products. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine developments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of rela tively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Kenya. Figure 1 shows the movements in the prices of four key grain staples—maize, rice, sorghum and wheat—from the beginning of 2020.
    Keywords: KENYA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; staple foods; grains; diets; prices; markets; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine; poverty
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:23&r=agr
  14. By: Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
    Abstract: The prices of staple grains began rising in mid-2020, reflecting higher fertilizer prices and the supply chain bottlenecks caused by the outbreak of Covid-19, and increased sharply following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. How have these dramatic increases in world prices of cereals affected poverty in low-income countries? This brief estimates the impact of higher world grain prices on poverty in Niger. Other briefs in this series examine the impact of higher food prices on poverty in Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c). All six studies use a similar approach. First, we examine the effect of the rise in international cereal prices on the real price of key grains in the domestic markets of the country. Second, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household using nationally-representative survey data, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, we estimate the changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below.
    Keywords: NIGER; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; grains; staple foods; prices; fertilizers; supply chains; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine; cereals; poverty; income; households
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:25&r=agr
  15. By: Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
    Abstract: Because of low incomes and associated large shares of expenditure on food, Mali is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key grain staples such as maize and wheat. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine develop ments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of relatively stable prices on world mar kets, the prices of key food staples began to rise during 2020. This period of price increases, span ning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Mali.
    Keywords: MALI; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; poverty; low income groups; food; prices; grains; markets; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:24&r=agr
  16. By: Markus Haacker (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine was associated with large changes in the prices of key food and fuel commodities (wheat, maize, coal, gas, and oil) in 2022 which produced macroeconomic gains for exporters and losses as import costs increased. Across 49 countries benefitting, these gains averaged about 8 percent of GDP and reach up to 36 percent of GDP. In contrast, 125 countries suffered direct losses between 0 percent of GDP and 5 percent of GDP, and 10 countries losses between 5 percent of GDP and 10 percent of GDP. Economic performance was significantly worse among countries experiencing losses from the commodity price shock. An increase in the costs of imports of 1 percent of GDP was associated with lower GDP growth (minus 0.1 percent) and a weakening fiscal balance. Most significantly, GDP in countries experiencing losses in the form of higher import costs bought less when measured against the consumer price index (a loss of 0.75 percent for each percent of GDP in increased import costs). This price effect wiped out all gains from real GDP growth for high-income countries experiencing a negative commodity price shock and resulted in declining living standards for low-income countries relying on imports.
    Date: 2023–08–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:652&r=agr
  17. By: Kjersti Nes; Federico Antonioli (European Commission - JRC); Federica Di Marcantonio; Pavel Ciaian (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Differences in composition of seemingly identical branded food products (DC-SIP) occur when a good is marketed in one Member State as being identical (same brand labelling and same or similar front-of-pack appearance) to a good marketed in another Member State while that good has a significantly different composition or significantly different characteristics. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) developed a common testing methodology to examine the occurrence of this practice in the European single market. This methodology was applied in the first EU-wide testing campaign in 2018/2019. The objective of this study is to replicate the 2018/2019 testing campaign to provide figures for 2021 on the occurrence of DC-SIP in the European single market and to compare them with the results of the 2018/2019 testing campaign. In addition to the result of this comparison, this report presents the results of a survey of brand owners about their (potential) actions regarding DC-SIP in response to recent regulatory changes, namely the amended Directive 2005/29/EC – the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive (UCPD) – where a specific provision on DC-SIP (Article 6(2)(c)) was introduced by Directive (EU) 2019/2161.
    Keywords: Differences in composition, branded food products, UCPD, Food Chain
    JEL: L15 L66 Q18
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc131303&r=agr
  18. By: Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
    Abstract: After a long period of relatively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the Covid-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Ethiopia.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; prices; markets; staple foods; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; shock; poverty; Ukraine
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:22&r=agr
  19. By: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Cong Nguyen, Minh; Trinh, Trong-Anh
    Abstract: Despite a vast literature documenting the harmful effects of climate change on various socioeconomic outcomes, little evidence exists on the global impacts of hotter temperature on poverty and inequality. Analysis of a new global panel dataset of subnational poverty in 134 countries finds that a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature leads to a 9.1 percent increase in poverty, using the US$1.90 daily poverty threshold. A similar increase in temperature causes a 1.4 percent increase in the Gini inequality index. The paper also finds negative effects of colder temperature on poverty and inequality. Yet, while poorer countries—particularly those in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa—are more affected by climate change, household adaptation could have mitigated some adverse effects in the long run. The findings provide relevant and timely inputs for the global fight against climate change as well as the current policy debate on the responsibilities of richer countries versus poorer countries.
    Keywords: climate change; temperature; poverty; inequality; subnational data; Knowledge for Change (KCP) grant
    JEL: Q54 I32 O10
    Date: 2023–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120156&r=agr
  20. By: SANCHEZ FERNANDEZ Berta; BARRO Francisco; SMULDERS Marinus J.m.; GILISSEN Luud J.w.j.; RODRIGUEZ CEREZO Emilio (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Advances in biotechnology over the last decades have led to the development of new genomic techniques (NGTs). In 2021, the “Study on the status of new genomic techniques under Union law and in light of the Court of Justice ruling in Case C-528/16” was published as requested by the Council of the European Union (Council Decision (EU) 2019/1904). The study defined NGTs as techniques which are able to alter the genetic material of an organism and which have been developed after the adoption of the current EU legislation on genetically modified organisms (EU Directive 2001/18/EC). In addition last year, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published two reports on the technological state-of-the-art and on current and future market applications of NGTs (Broothaerts et al., 2021; C. Parisi & Rodriguez-Cerezo, 2021). This report presents the case study of a product developed with a NGT - CRISPR/Cas targeted mutations – namely the low-gluten celiac-safe wheat. Here, a detailed description of the gene-edited low-gluten celiac-safe wheat products currently under development in the EU is provided. Furthermore, we illustrate the potential contribution this product would make to ensure food security, nutrition and public health if it were approved for cultivation and marketing in the EU. This report is drafted to support the impact assessment accompanying the Commission proposal on Legislation for plants produced by certain new genomic techniques.
    Date: 2023–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc131711&r=agr
  21. By: Adrian Haws; David R. Just; Joseph Price
    Abstract: We link census records for millions of farm children to identify owner-operators of the family farm in adulthood, providing the first population-level evidence on intergenerational farm transfers. Using our panel of U.S. census data from 1900 to 1940, our analysis supports the primogeniture hypothesis that oldest sons are more likely to inherit the family farm. Daughters are rarely observed as successors. We find that the birth order relationship among sons is relatively small and is only present for the subset of families with parents who are working age when they first have a successor, indicating that they had a succession plan. In families without an early successor, adult children who are tenant farmers or are not in an urban area are more likely to later inherit their family’s farm. Tenancy and rural residence are much more predictive of succession than is birth order. Thus, unplanned succession may primarily benefit underresourced farmers. With fewer than one-fifth of farm families having a child successor, the slow growth in succession as parents reach retirement age and life expectancy suggests the importance of identifying a successor early.
    JEL: D64 J24 N32 N52 Q12 Q15
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31604&r=agr
  22. By: Marshall Burke; Mustafa Zahid; Noah Diffenbaugh; Solomon M. Hsiang
    Abstract: Climate change is generating demonstrable harm around the world. Political and legal efforts have sought to associate climate impacts with specific emissions, including in recent international policy discussion of Loss and Damage (L&D). However, no quantitative definition of L&D exists, nor does there exist a framework for linking specific emissions to specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, linking it explicitly to recent efforts to calculate the social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2), and demonstrate its use in a variety of applications. We calculate that future damages from past emissions, one component of L&D, are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions, a more commonly discussed component of L&D: 1 ton of CO2 emitted in 1990 causes $4 in global cumulative discounted damages by 2020 and an additional $327 in discounted damages through 2100 (2% discount rate). These estimates of past and future damages from marginal emissions can be used to calculate L&D for a range of specific emitting activities: for instance, an individual taking one long-haul flight every year for the past decade will generate ~$5500 in damages through 2100, the emissions associated with multiple oil majors between 1988-2015 have already caused $50-200B of cumulative global economic damage by 2020, and CO2 emissions in the US since 1990 have caused ~$2T in global damage through 2020, with India ($293B) and Brazil ($167B) being harmed the most. Carbon removal offers an alternative to transfer payments for settling L&D, but we show that it becomes increasingly ineffective in limiting damages as the delay between emission and recapture increases.
    JEL: Q54 Q56
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31658&r=agr
  23. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Cheikh T. Ndour (University Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal)
    Abstract: This article examines how good governance counteracts the effects of military expenditure on carbon emissions in forty African countries. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used to analyze time series data from 2010-2020. Military expenditure per capita is used to measure military expenditure per penetration, while CO2 emissions per capita are used as an indicator of environmental degradation. The following findings are established. First, from the non-interactive regressions, we find suggestive evidence that arms expenditure increases CO2 emissions. All indicators of good governance contribute to the increase of CO2 emissions. Second, with interactive regressions, we find that improved governance has a negative effect on CO2 emissions per capita. Third, the results are robust to a sensitivity check, considering the synergy effects of governance. This paper provides policy recommendations on low-carbon economies, military expenditure and governance that could help to ensure environmental sustainability by reducing CO2 emissions. In addition, the study findings can provide guidance to other developing countries seeking to implement effective approaches to environmental sustainability while strengthening climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
    Keywords: climate change; Emission reduction; Environmental degradation; Sustainability; Econometric analysis
    Date: 2023–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:23/051&r=agr
  24. By: Alhelo, Alzaki; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.
    Abstract: The paper reviews the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector over the last three decades (1990 through 2021) and examines the drivers of that performance. Key findings show that the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product was greater during the 1990–1999 period than during the other two decades; agricultural productivity as well was higher in that decade than in the subsequent two decades. The sector has remained a major source of employment and livelihood. During the last decade reviewed (2010–2021), the sector regained its leading position as a generator of foreign currency. Public investment in agriculture and government spending allocated to the sector were lower than in other countries in the region. Political elites have generally lacked commitment to development plans in the sector. Political developments in Sudan have disrupted more recent efforts to revitalize the sector. Climate change, as manifested in rising temperature, declining rainfall, and drought, is a substantial determinant currently affecting the sector. The paper discusses some broad recommendations for improving the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector.
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; agricultural sector; gross national product; agricultural productivity; employment; livelihoods; public investment; government spending; development; political aspects; climate change; gross domestic product
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2191a&r=agr
  25. By: Francisco Serranito; Donatella Gatti; Gaye-Del Lo
    Abstract: This paper identifies the determinants of OECD Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) index using a panel of 21 European countries for the period 2009-2019. If there is a large literature on the macroeconomic, political, and social determinants of EPS, the people’s attitudes or preferences toward environmental policies is still burgeoning. Thus, the main goal of this paper is to estimate the effects of people’s awareness regarding environmental issues on the EPS indicator. Due to the endogeneity of preferences, we have applied an instrumental variable framework to estimate ourempirical model. Our most important result is to show that individual environmental preferences have a positive and significant effect on the level of EPS indicator : on average, a rise in individual preferences of 10% in a country will increase its EPS indicator by 2.30%. Our results have important policy implications.
    Keywords: Environmental policy stringency; Environmental attitudes/concerns, inequality; environmental Kuznets curve; EU
    JEL: Q0 Q1 Q3 Q50 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2023-25&r=agr
  26. By: Magdalena Cortina; Carlos Madeira
    Abstract: We estimate real estate's exposure in Chile to five weather risks, including labor productivity loss due to heat, fires, floods, drought coastal deterioration as measured by the Chilean Climatic Risk Atlas (ARCLIM) and Climate Impact Explorer (CIE) sources. According to our joint ARCLIM-CIE indicator, we measure risk exposure for the appraisal value of all properties of 39% for Chile and 51%, 36%, 36% and 27% for the Central, North, Metropolitan and South macrozones, respectively. flooding is the greatest risk for Chile, followed by drought. We find that the CIE source underestimates the climate exposures in Chile relative to the ARCLIM measures, particularly for the flooding and drought risks.
    Date: 2023–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:976&r=agr
  27. By: Xia, Senmao; Ling, Yantao; de Main, Leanne; Lim, Ming K.; Li, Gendao; Zhang, Peter; Cao, Mengqiu
    Abstract: This study investigates how consumers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for green products affects the decisions made by the green supply chain players. Through the application of game theory and uncertainty theory, our findings show that a higher consumer WTP for green products usually leads to a higher retail price and market share of green products, which motivates retailers and manufacturers to invest more in green technology. We also find that an increased WTP for green products can spur retailers to reduce the optimal green cost-sharing rate due to the pressure of increasing costs. In addition, we find that retailers are willing to lower the cost sharing rate when the confidence level increases. Regarding the contributions made by this study, it is one of the first to explore the transmission mechanisms involved in the management of the green supply chain by linking consumers’ WTP for green products to strategic decisions made by green supply chain players under conditions of uncertainty. Furthermore, our study could help green supply chain players to optimise the cost sharing mechanisms they use to generate more revenue, due to the increase in WTP for green products, which will in turn help to facilitate a low carbon economy.
    Keywords: cost sharing; game theory; Green supply chain management; low carbon economy; uncertainty theory; willingness-to-pay
    JEL: Q50 D10
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116895&r=agr
  28. By: Stephen K. Dimnwobi (Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria); Kingsley I. Okere (Gregory University, Uturu, Nigeria); Favour C. Onuoha (Evangel University Akaeze, Nigeria); Benedict I. Uzoechina (Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria); Chukwunonso Ekesiobi (Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Nigeria); Ebele S. Nwokoye (Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The Sub-Saharan Africa region is disproportionately affected by energy poverty and is considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Therefore, addressing the pressing challenges of energy poverty and promoting environmental sustainability in this region is of paramount importance. Consequently, this study appraises the relationship between energy poverty and ecological preservation in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2005 to 2020, using government effectiveness and regulatory quality as moderating variables. A combination of energy poverty indicators and an index of energy poverty computed via the principal component analysis method were applied to identify the link between energy poverty and ecological sustainability. The instrumental variable generalized method of moment technique was applied to address the likelihood of endogeneity issues, and the Driscoll-Kraay approach was employed to check the consistency of the instrumental variable generalized method of moment method. Key findings indicate that energy poverty expands the ecological footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to ecological deterioration, while the interaction with government effectiveness and regulatory quality further deteriorates the environment. Subsequently, the study provides several recommendations to mitigate the influence of energy poverty on the environment.
    Keywords: Energy Poverty, Environmental Sustainability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2023–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:23/050&r=agr
  29. By: CAIVANO Arnaldo (European Commission - JRC); CASTRO MALET Javier; GORRÍN GONZÁLEZ Celso Jesús; PORCELLA-ČAPKOVIČOVÁ Andrea
    Abstract: In order to provide internal agro-economic modellers with a shared reference data source, the JRC and DG AGRI agreed in 2017 to construct a dataset to provide an approximation of the apparent use of several agricultural commodities at Member State level. This dataset was made publicly available so that the benefits can be shared with other modellers and with anyone interested in figures concerning EU agricultural production, consumption, and trade. During the five years next to its publication, this dataset has demonstrated to be a successful tool with increasing number of on-line visits. Many improvements were implemented. Additional agriculture sectors have been covered, new indicators were integrated. External factors like the Brexit imposed some adaptations. This new edition of the report became necessary. The user guide, the description of the methodology, and the description of the data transformation process have been revised. Attention is paid to the limitations of the methodology and to the cautions for using this data. Original contents not part of previous edition take into account the maturity developed during five years of history, and analyse the usage and diffusion of the tool, the communication challenges, the publication as open and FAIR data, the API for allowing machines to interact with the data, and the perspectives for future improvements.
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc134041&r=agr
  30. By: Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
    Abstract: The prices of staple grains on international markets began to rise in mid-2020 in response to higher fertilizer prices and supply constraints associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. They further spiked in early 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This brief examines the impact of these events on poverty in Nigeria. It is part of a series of six such briefs that estimate the poverty impact of higher world prices for staple grains. The other briefs cover Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c). The methodological approach is similar in all six country studies. First, we examine the effect of the increases in international cereal prices on the real price of key grains in the domestic markets of the country. Second, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household using nationally-representative survey data, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, we estimate the changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below.
    Keywords: NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; grains; markets; fertlizers; supply chains; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine; cereals; households; poverty
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:26&r=agr
  31. By: De Maria, Marcello; Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.; Zanello, Giacomo
    Abstract: Despite the existence of a legal framework defining the right to fair compensation, and notwithstanding the vast literature on transnational and domestic land deals, no theory has been developed so far to allow for a specific analysis of the economics of fair compensation in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs), limiting our understanding of the underlying reasons of success or failure of this important legal protection mechanism. Building on the review of the existing literature on fair compensation and on the critical examination of several real-world case studies, this paper fills this gap by developing a three-player sequential game, which captures the peculiarities of fair compensation in large-scale land deals. We show that, under specific but not uncommon circumstances, the local community will be offered a zero-compensation as a rational consequence of the players’ optimisation, and this will lead to a land conflict, with all players incurring additional costs. Our findings suggest that local populations will be offered – and willing to accept – a compensation that is smaller than their original livelihood, unless they can oppose the land deal at no cost. Thus, the right to consent is inextricably related to the right to reject in LSLAs. If the former is frictionless while the latter comes at a cost, then there is space for strategic behaviours that exploit power imbalances and discretionary processes, and the fair compensation right is, in practice, weakened.
    Keywords: large-scale land acquisitions; land grabbing; fair compensation; zero compensation; sustainable land governance; land rights; UK Research and Innovation’s Global Challenges Research Fund (UKRI GCRF) through the Trade; Development and the Environment Hub project (project number ES/S008160/1).
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2023–10–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119742&r=agr

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