nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2023‒09‒04
thirty-one papers chosen by



  1. The Appropriate Revision of the Basic Law on Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas: Problems in the mid-term report by the panel of the policy council on food, agriculture and rural areas for the verification of the basic law on food, agriculture and rural areas Part 1 on food and agriculture (Japanese) By YAMASHITA Kazuhito
  2. The Appropriate Revision of the Basic Law on Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas: Problems in the mid-term report by the panel of the policy council on food, agriculture and rural areas for the verification of the basic law on food, agriculture and rural areas Part 3 on food security (Japanese) By YAMASHITA Kazuhito
  3. The Coming Malthusian Catastrophe: The Climate and Biodiversity Crises as Global Food Crisis. By Blaber, Richard Michael
  4. Impact of climate change on household agricultural incomes in niger: spatial econometric analysis By Senzele, Joseph; AMAYENE, Chimène
  5. Measuring changes in the Nepal’s agri-food system By International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
  6. Is water a blessing or a curse? How to address water conflicts in West Africa By Kohnert, Dirk
  7. MODELLING SCENARIOS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR By Strokov, Anton (Строков, Антон); Potashnikov, Vladimir (Поташников, Владимир)
  8. The dynamics of deforestation and reforestation in a developing economy By Julien Wolfersberger; Gregory Amacher; Philippe Delacote; Arnaud Dragicevic
  9. The Appropriate Revision of the Basic Law on Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas: Problems in the mid-term report by the panel of the policy council on food, agriculture and rural areas for the verification of the basic law on food, agriculture and rural areas Part 2 on rural areas and environment (Japanese) By YAMASHITA Kazuhito
  10. Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms By Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
  11. Distortions, Producer Dynamics, and Aggregate Productivity: A General Equilibrium Analysis By Stephen Ayerst; Loren Brandt; Diego Restuccia
  12. Drought and Cattle: Implications for Ranchers By Cortney Cowley; Jacob Dice; David Rodziewicz
  13. Factors affecting the violence against women: evidence from rural Bangladesh By Hasan, Mohammad Monirul; Sakib, S M Nazmus; Khan, Trisa
  14. A critical assessment of neural networks as meta-model of a farm optimization model By Seidel, Claudia; Shang, Linmei; Britz, Wolfgang
  15. Synthesizing resilience: Key insights from a technical working group meeting By Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi
  16. Ecolabel certification in multi-zone marine protected areas can incentivize sustainable fishing practices and offset the costs of fishing effort displacement By Loana Garraud; Jennifer Beckensteiner; Olivier Thébaud; Joachim Claudet
  17. Nudger les agriculteurs innovants : une application à l’adoption du label bas-carbone By Douadia Bougherara; Léa Petit; Raphaële Préget; Sophie S. Thoyer
  18. Gender-Biased Technological Change: Milking Machines and the Exodus of Women from Farming By Philipp Ager; Marc Goñi; Kjell Salvanes
  19. Justice and Moral Economies in Modular, Adaptive, and Decentralized (MAD) Water Systems By Beresford, Melissa; Brewis, Alexandra; Choudhary, Neetu; Drew, Georgina; Garcia, Nataly Escobedo; Garrick, Dustin; Hossain, Mohammed Jobayer; Lopez, Ernesto; Nébié, Elisabeth Ilboudo; Pacheco-Vega, Raul
  20. Death, retirement or redeployment for unproductive farm animals? Dispositional tensions in organizational routines By Charrier François; Juliette Cognie; Aubin-Houzelstein Geneviève; Morgane Costes-Thiré; Vanina Deneux-Le Barh; Valérie Fillon; Victoria Fluckiger-Serra; Félix Jourdan; Aurore Kubica; Léa Lansade; Sébastien Mouret; Charline Nivelle; Alice Raspail; Suzanne Tapie; Jocelyne Porcher
  21. Lessons from developing district-level M&E plans to implement the National Resilience Strategy By Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi
  22. Regional vulnerability to the green transition By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Bartalucci, Federico
  23. FEATURES OF SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORT IN RURAL AREAS By Gataulina, Ekaterina (Гатаулина, Екатерина); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра); Ternovskiy, Denis (Терновский, Денис); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина)
  24. Conflicts and political intervention: Evidence from the anti-open grazing laws in Nigeria By Hufschmidt, Patrick; Ume, Chukwuma Otum
  25. "Balancing Growth and Green: Strategies for Sustainable Development in Developing Economies" By Yeboah, Samuel
  26. Analysis of the dynamic of inflation process in Nigeria: An application of GARCH modelling By Ekpeyong, Paul
  27. Sustainable Waste: Biomimetic Solutions For Medical and Food Waste Management Systems in the United States By See, Priti
  28. Determinants of climate change perception and behaviour of European households By Horbach, Jens
  29. Unpacking the green box: Determinants of Environmental Policy Stringency in European countries By Donatella Gatti; Gaye-Del Lo; Francisco Serranito
  30. Soap Operas and Pro-Savings Attitudes in Poor Rural Areas of Peru By Alberto Chong; Martin Valdivia
  31. Did Grain Futures Prices Overreact to the Russia-Ukraine War? By Carter, Colin A.; Steinbach, Sandro

  1. By: YAMASHITA Kazuhito
    Abstract: The mid-term report tries to shift agricultural policy from the structural adjustment policy of agriculture to agricultural protection by means of price support for all kinds of both small and large farmers. Though it emphasizes import risks of agricultural products facing the price pike of imports, Japan can continue to import such products because it can afford to buy domestic products which are priced much higher than imports. Arguments for the increase of the domestic price of agricultural products based on the notion of “appropriate price formation†discourage export and harm poor people. Direct payments will improve the sustainability of Japanese agriculture and provide consumers with food that is less expensive than now. The acreage reduction policy for rice paddy fields have deteriorated multifunctionality and will decrease the supply of food in a crisis. This abnormal and unprecedented policy which has increased the burden of consumers (the price of rice) through the reduction of the rice supply by means of the taxpayer burden (due to subsidies to farmers) remains in place. The increase in the profitability of full-time farmers resulting from consolidating farmland will lead to an increase in the rent for landowners which will allow them to manage or maintain farmland, waterways and roads. Many miscellaneous and complicated policies of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries discourage public officials in rural governments and farmers themselves from independently undertaking original and creative activities. Those policies should be streamlined and simplified.
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:23011&r=agr
  2. By: YAMASHITA Kazuhito
    Abstract: Japan will face a food crisis not due to a price hike in the world grain market but because of import disruptions caused by the destruction of sea lanes to Japan. But the mid-term report does not show how much food the Japanese people will need in such a crisis. This is indispensable for considering how much farmland, fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides and other production factors for agricultural production are needed, or the necessary amount of food that should be stockpiled for use in an emergency. It is important to recognize that we cannot provide the Japanese people with food without securing energy for the entire food supply chain including the supply of agricultural inputs, processing, storage, and distribution. The measures for food security differ depending on the different phases of a crisis, such as an initial stage without imported food and the next more serious stage without oil for agricultural production. The agricultural industry has taken advantage of food security and the increase of food self-sufficiency ratio to secure agricultural protection. It has promoted the acreage reduction of rice paddy fields and conversion of farmland for residential use which is contradictory to food security. We should restructure the measures for food security in terms of ensuring the supply of food for our nation.
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:23013&r=agr
  3. By: Blaber, Richard Michael
    Abstract: Thomas Malthus predicted that human population would always grow faster than food production, but the ‘Green Revolution’ of the 1960s appeared to disprove his thesis. Now anthropogenic climate change, with its adverse impacts on crop yields, the supply of water for irrigation, and the health and increased mortality of farm animals, is once again threatening to vindicate him, as human population grows from 8 billion now to an estimated 9.74 billion by 2050. Human-induced biodiversity loss is compounding this problem.
    Date: 2023–08–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wef2n&r=agr
  4. By: Senzele, Joseph; AMAYENE, Chimène
    Abstract: This study aims at analyzing the impact of Climate Change on the incomes of agricultural households in Niger through the spatial econometric modeling. It is based on the "household life survey" carried out in 2018 on 3901 farm households. So, the study showed that estimating the impact of climate on the whole of Niger (global basis) without taking into account the variabilities of climatic zones hides the particular sensitivities of each zones. This is the case of the Saharan zone, which is more sensitive to temperature than the other zones, which are more sensitive to rainfall. Also, the results reveals that the reduction in precipitation appears to be more harmful to farmers’ agricultural income than the increase in temperature. These results imply that the design of effective rural development programs and economic policies related to the fight against climate change, aimed at increasing household resilience, both in terms of adaptation and mitigation, must be done especially by taking into account the spatial variability of the impacts of climate change.
    Keywords: Climate change, spatial econometric modeling, agriculture, climatic zones, Niger
    JEL: Q11 Q51 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2022–08–13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118073&r=agr
  5. By: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Abstract: Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth†. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.
    Keywords: NEPAL, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, measurement, agrifood systems, food systems, agriculture, gross national product, off-farm employment, nonfarm income, economic sectors,
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:agdppb:136669&r=agr
  6. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: For many Africans, water is not only the source of life, but also a means of purification and a centre of regeneration. Water rituals and cults, such as 'Mami Wata', lead their followers to liberation of body and spirit. But customary rites can also cause harm. For example, the ancestral use of irrigation reduces contemporary female labour participation and female property rights. It is crucial to consider gender in resource management in the context of climate change, environmental degradation and population growth, which will exacerbate conflicts over scarce resources such as arable land, water, fishing and hunting. Poor governance leads to the alienation and exploitation of the majority and growing inequality, especially when water is scarce and people's livelihoods are threatened. Sub-Saharan Africa is the continent most affected by climate change, population growth and food insecurity. Yet African states, where water ecosystems are strategic resources, are more inclined to regional conflict than cooperation. In the past, climaterelated shocks have fuelled violent conflict in West Africa. Land pressure and water scarcity are causing increasingly acute crises. Traditional institutions of water and land management are often destabilised by modern irrigation techniques and massive inflows of foreign capital. Modernisation is driven by a Western-centred utilitarianism that cannot be universalised. The intensification of conflicts over water has revealed a general crisis that is likely to worsen, given the dynamics at work. Environmental degradation is one of the undesirable by-products of agricultural productivity growth, but customary institutions cannot provide adequate regulation to mitigate its effects. But even in West African regions where water is plentiful, the resource curse links the abundance of natural resources to higher levels of conflict. The commercialisation of water, including land and water grabbing, can even lead to interstate conflict through the effects of greed or grievances. Ultimately, however, conflicts are often not so much about access to scarce resources such as water, food or land, but rather about changing the political institutions through which resources are distributed. Water scarcity puts pressure on people, resulting in migration, displacement, food insecurity and impoverishment, which can lead to further conflict.
    Keywords: water scarcity, water rites; customary institutions; climate change; modernization; resource curse; gender inequality; land grabbing; water grabbing; governance; migration; sustainable development; post-colonialism; informal sector; international trade; ODA; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; Mali; Nigeria; Senegal; African Studies;
    JEL: D02 D18 D23 D31 D43 D47 E26 F13 F21 F22 F35 F51 F52 F54 F64 I31 J16 N17 N37 N47 N57 N97 O13 Q15 Q25 Q54 Q55 Q56 Z13
    Date: 2023–07–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118148&r=agr
  7. By: Strokov, Anton (Строков, Антон) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potashnikov, Vladimir (Поташников, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of the concentration of livestock farms, not only from an economic point of view, but also from an environmental one. The objective of the research is to develop ways for sustainable development of animal husbandry in Russia, taking into account the possibilities of continuous growth in production and export of meat and milk, balanced by current environmental problems (growth of farm waste) and the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The subject of the research is the environmental indicators characterizing the externalities arising from the production of livestock products (meat, milk, eggs). The work uses traditional scientific methods - descriptive, analytical, statistical and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official publications of regulatory documents and statistical data of the Russian state authorities, as well as foreign databases on agricultural statistics. The reported results conclude that the concentration of livestock production facilities leads to different environmental consequences. Among the leading regions specializing in livestock products, the highest concentration is in the Central Black Earth Region: the Belgorod and Kursk regions account for almost 30% of all agricultural waste in Russia. The greenhouse gas emissions were estimated using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model. The calculation results showed that Belgorod region has one of the lowest carbon footprint indicators in livestock production: 8 tons of СО2 equiv. per ton of protein, which is associated with the low-carbon development of poultry farming. In other regions, which specialize in dairy and beef cattle breeding, the carbon footprint is at least twice as high, for example, in Krasnodar krai; however, the indicators of waste output per unit of production, on the contrary, are lower there. Thus, the scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of scientific and analytical tools for the correct identification of local, regional and global environmental risks when assessing the efficiency of meat, milk and eggs production. So, in our study, local risks were assessed through the concentration of manure (nitrogen) elements per unit of agricultural land and cultivated area at the level of municipalities. Regional risks were assessed through the indicator of waste from agricultural products. And finally, global risks were assessed through the indicator of greenhouse gas emissions, which also allowed us to estimate the so-called cumulative carbon footprint of each region per unit of animal protein produced. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were developed to improve statistical reporting on production waste in the agricultural sector; to differentially collect and publish data on various types of feeding of farm animals in different categories of farms, which will subsequently help to better calculate animal diets and their potential waste and greenhouse gas emissions, in order to identify the most “wasteful” and “sustainable” animal husbandry practices.
    Keywords: externalities, livestock production, production concentration, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon footprint, agricultural policy, environmental policy
    JEL: Q15 Q53 C39
    Date: 2022–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022090&r=agr
  8. By: Julien Wolfersberger (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Gregory Amacher; Philippe Delacote; Arnaud Dragicevic
    Abstract: We develop a model of optimal land allocation in a developing economy that features three possible land uses: agriculture, primary and secondary forests. The distinction between those forest types reflects their different contribution in terms of public good. In our model, reforestation is costly because it undermines land title security. Using the forest transition concept, we study long-term land-use change and explain important features of cumulative deforestation across countries. Our results shed light on the speed at which net deforestation ends, on the effect of tenure costs in this process, and on composition in steady state. We also present a policy analysis that emphasizes the critical role of institutional reforms addressing the costs of both deforestation and tenure in order to promote a transition. We find that focusing only on net forest losses can be misleading since late transitions may yield, upon given conditions, a higher level of environmental benefits.
    Keywords: Deforestation, Economic Development, Forest transition, Tenure costs
    Date: 2022–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04157160&r=agr
  9. By: YAMASHITA Kazuhito
    Abstract: The rural development policy that aimed to disperse factories throughout Japan has been ineffective recently, though it made great contributions to growth in the era of rapid economic expansion. The policy for the development of service industries which require the concentration of large populations in an area is also less effective for dilapidated rural areas. On the contrary, we have to decrease the farming population so that land-intensive farming such as rice may be conducted on a larger scale and become more profitable. In order to develop local areas as a whole, we have to concentrate populations in core cities to develop the service industry, arrange medical, childcare, and other similar facilities in a configuration that will lead to decent and healthy lifestyles in compact cities surrounding a core city, and let a few large-scale farmers operate large operations in very rural areas. The prefectural governments should play the role of coordinating local government policies over a wide area. Farmland should be managed in a way that is profitable, removing the need for subsidies The decrease in the price of rice that will result from the abolition of acreage reduction policy of rice paddy fields will encourage small-scale, part-time farmers to part with their farmland. The direct payments to full-time farmers will let them accumulate farmland so that they may be more profitable and pay more rent to landowners who manage the farmland. It is desirable to have more full-time farmers who have propensity to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers, insecticides and herbicides. In order to “produce more with less†, we should also improve varieties by means of gene editing.
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:23012&r=agr
  10. By: Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; conflicts; agrifood sector; employment; food processing; livelihoods; food security; beverage industry; infrastructure; inputs; Sudan Armed Forces; Rapid Support Forces
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:11&r=agr
  11. By: Stephen Ayerst; Loren Brandt; Diego Restuccia
    Abstract: The expansion in farm size is an important contributor to agricultural productivity in developed countries where more productive farms are larger, but in less developed economies the allocation of factor inputs to more productive farms is hindered. How do distortions to factor-input allocation affect farm dynamics and agricultural productivity? We develop a model of heterogeneous farms making cropping choices and investing in productivity improvements. We calibrate the model using detailed farm-level panel data from Vietnam, exploiting regional differences in agricultural institutions and outcomes. We focus on south Vietnam and quantify the effect of higher measured distortions in the North on farm choices and agricultural productivity. We find that the higher distortions in north Vietnam reduce agricultural productivity by 47%, accounting for 70% of the observed 2.5-fold difference between regions. Moreover, two-thirds of the productivity loss is driven by farms' choice of lower productivity crops and reductions in productivity-enhancing investment, which more than doubles the productivity loss from static factor misallocation.
    Keywords: Farm dynamics, productivity, size, distortions, misallocation, Vietnam.
    JEL: O11 O14 O4
    Date: 2023–08–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-754&r=agr
  12. By: Cortney Cowley; Jacob Dice; David Rodziewicz
    Abstract: Drought has occurred with greater intensity and frequency in many areas of the United States in recent years. Despite the growing concern surrounding the impacts of drought on the agricultural sector, few studies have quantified the impact of drought on the cattle industry. In this paper, we estimate the impacts of drought on cattle herd management, hay production, hay prices, and farm income in the United States from 2000 to 2022. Our results indicate that drought negatively impacts hay production and results in higher hay prices. Drought also contributes to herd liquidation and is correlated with lower farm incomes. As drought intensity increases, we find some evidence of reduced average herd sizes (liquidation). As herd size declines, revenues temporarily increase, which could be due to selling larger quantities of market and breeding stock. Overall, drought has a temporary positive effect on rancher revenues, but a negative effect on earnings.
    Keywords: drought; agriculture; cattle prices
    JEL: Q10 Q13 Q15
    Date: 2023–06–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:96488&r=agr
  13. By: Hasan, Mohammad Monirul; Sakib, S M Nazmus; Khan, Trisa
    Abstract: The present study investigates the phenomenon of domestic violence perpetrated against women in Bangladesh, and endeavors to identify potential determinants that may underlie its prevalence. By employing a multivariate logistic regression model and utilizing a national representative dataset comprising 5044 households in rural Bangladesh, the present study reveals noteworthy correlations between domestic violence and various factors, including but not limited to women's age, poultry farming, total land ownership, working in rural areas, and women's decision-making authority in agriculture. The age of female individuals is a crucial factor in the occurrence of domestic violence, as there exists a positive correlation between age and the likelihood of experiencing such violence, with older women being more susceptible to it. Nevertheless, the probability of violent behavior decreases after a specific period. The rearing of poultry in farms seems to have a noticeable effect on the incidence of violence, whereas the possession of extensive land holdings reduces the probability of violent occurrences. Men who work in rural areas are more likely to engage in violent behavior, possibly due to economic instability and adherence to traditional gender norms. Research indicates that female individuals who possess decision-making power in the realm of agricultural production tend to experience reduced levels of violence. In general, the aforementioned discoveries illuminate the intricate mechanisms that underlie domestic violence in rural areas of Bangladesh.
    Keywords: Domestic Violence, Women’s decision making, Age, Small business, Work in rural areas
    JEL: I14 I24 I31 I38 O15 O20
    Date: 2023–06–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117873&r=agr
  14. By: Seidel, Claudia; Shang, Linmei; Britz, Wolfgang
    Abstract: Mixed Integer programming (MIP) is frequently used in agricultural economics to solve farm-level optimization problems, but it can be computationally intensive especially when the number of binary or integer variables becomes large. In order to speed up simulations, for instance for large-scale sensitivity analysis or application to larger farm populations, meta-models can be derived from the original MIP and applied as an approximator instead. To test and assess this approach, we train Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as a meta-model of a farm-scale MIP model. This study compares different ANNs from various perspectives to assess to what extent they are able to replace the original MIP model. Results show that ANNs are promising for meta-modeling as they are computationally efficient and can handle non-linear relationships, corner solutions, and jumpy behavior of the underlying farm optimization model.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods
    Date: 2023–08–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubfred:338200&r=agr
  15. By: Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi
    Abstract: Titukulane was designed to reduce the number of chronically food insecure households by enhancing the capacities of local and national governance structures to implement resilience-focused policies. To achieve this Titukulane is implementing interventions that buildresilience and improve food security and nutrition outcomes for communities. Specifically, under Purpose area 3, these interventions are aimed at building institutional and local capacities to reduce risk and increase resilience among ultra-poor and chronically vulnerable households.Specific interventions implemented under Purpose 3 are disaster risk management, natural resource management and overall coordination of the National Resilience Strategy especially at district level.
    Keywords: MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; food insecurity; capacity development; resilience; nutrition; poverty; natural resources management; disaster risk management
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:136822&r=agr
  16. By: Loana Garraud (CRIOBE - Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jennifer Beckensteiner (IUEM - Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Olivier Thébaud (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - IUEM - Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Joachim Claudet (CRIOBE - Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: As area-based marine conservation coverage expands to meet global targets, tension with fishing activities increases. While fully protected areas (FPAs) provide the largest range of long-term social-ecological benefits, their establishment has been constrained by difficulties arising from the short-term costs of protection, and associated limitations in economic incentives and in the resources required for effective implementation. Building on an existing bio-economic model for self-financed FPAs, we examine the economic and operational feasibility of establishing an ecolabel approach to balance the costs endured by fishers when implementing an FPA. Optimal increased profits can be achieved by designating the ecolabelled self-funded managed-fishing area for 20-25% of FPA. Multi-zone MPAs with a price premium derived from catch ecolabel certification inside partially protected areas surrounding FPAs provide incentives to help fishers engage into adopting sustainable fishing practices. Here we pave the way for more innovative approaches towards transformative changes for fisheries sustainability.
    Keywords: Multi-use marine protected areas, Ocean governance, Fisheries management, Co-management, Protection levels, Transformative change, Marine spatial planning
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04158288&r=agr
  17. By: Douadia Bougherara (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Léa Petit (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Raphaële Préget (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sophie S. Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)
    Keywords: Nudge, Comportement des agriculteurs
    Date: 2022–12–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04168224&r=agr
  18. By: Philipp Ager (University of Mannheim); Marc Goñi (University of Bergen); Kjell Salvanes (Norges Handelshøyskole)
    Abstract: This paper studies the link between gender-biased technological change in the agricultural sector and structural transformation in Norway. After WWII, Norwegian farms began widely adopting milking machines to replace the hand milking of cows, a task typically performed by women. Combining population-wide panel data from the Norwegian registry with municipality-level data from the Census of Agriculture, we show that the adoption of milking machines triggered a process of structural transformation by displacing young rural women from their traditional jobs on farms in dairy-intensive municipalities. The displaced women moved to urban areas where they acquired a higher level of education and found better-paid employment. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a Roy model of comparative advantage, extended to account for task automation and the gender division of labor in the agricultural sector. We also quantify significant inter-generational effects of this gender-biased technology adoption. Our results imply that the mechanization of farming has broken deeply rooted gender norms, transformed women’s work, and improved their long-term educational and earning opportunities, relative to men.
    Keywords: agriculture, World War II, geographic mobility
    JEL: J16 J24 J43 J61 N34 O14 O33
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2023-017&r=agr
  19. By: Beresford, Melissa; Brewis, Alexandra; Choudhary, Neetu; Drew, Georgina; Garcia, Nataly Escobedo; Garrick, Dustin; Hossain, Mohammed Jobayer; Lopez, Ernesto; Nébié, Elisabeth Ilboudo; Pacheco-Vega, Raul
    Abstract: Scholars and practitioners now acknowledge that “MAD Water” systems (modular, adaptive, decentralized engineered infrastructures) will expand to meet human water needs under future climate change, migration, and urbanization scenarios. Yet social science research on existing MAD water infrastructures documents how the use and deployment of such systems often undermines water justice. Here we posit that identifying and analyzing moral economies for water provides one approach for scholars to understand—and possibly predict—when and why justice norms in MAD water systems break down or become unstable. Moral economies are institutional arrangements in which people’s shared ideas of justice normatively shape how they distribute and exchange basic resources. We review the concept of moral economies, explain an operational framework for researching moral economies, and illustrate how moral economies function within three already-operating MAD water systems today: water sharing arrangements, informal water vending markets, and small-scale water commons. We argue that when moral economies are embedded and operating successfully within MAD water systems, they can create check-and-balance mechanisms against injustice. But when moral economies are absent or failing in MAD water systems, water injustices often prevail. As such, the moral economies framework provides not only a tool for analysis, but also a possible language and pathway forward toward organizing for justice in MAD water systems.
    Date: 2023–07–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6ywp7&r=agr
  20. By: Charrier François (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel); Juliette Cognie (PRC - Physiologie de la reproduction et des comportements [Nouzilly] - IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur] - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Aubin-Houzelstein Geneviève (CODIR - Collège de Direction - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Morgane Costes-Thiré (GenPhySE - Génétique Physiologie et Systèmes d'Elevage - ENVT - Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - ENSAT - École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Vanina Deneux-Le Barh (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur]); Valérie Fillon (GenPhySE - Génétique Physiologie et Systèmes d'Elevage - ENVT - Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - ENSAT - École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Victoria Fluckiger-Serra (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Félix Jourdan (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Aurore Kubica (IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur]); Léa Lansade (PRC - Physiologie de la reproduction et des comportements [Nouzilly] - IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur] - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur]); Sébastien Mouret (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Charline Nivelle (IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur]); Alice Raspail (SELMET-LRDE - Systèmes d'Elevage Méditerranéens et Tropicaux - Laboratoire de Recherche sur le Développement de l'Elevage - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Suzanne Tapie (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Jocelyne Porcher (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, PRC - Physiologie de la reproduction et des comportements [Nouzilly] - IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur] - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Keywords: Retirement, Farm animals, Redeployment
    Date: 2023–07–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04170273&r=agr
  21. By: Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi
    Abstract: The National Resilience Strategy (NRS) aims to build resilience against economic and environmental shocks, promoting inclusive growth, food security, and well-being for all Malawians. The NRS consists of four pillars: (1) Resilient Agricultural Growth; (2) Risk Reduction, Flood Control and Early Warning and Response Systems; (3) Human Capacity, Livelihoods, and Social Protection; and (4) Catchment Protection and Management. Titukulane RFSA is piloting the NRS in Zomba and Mangochi districts, working with District Councils to coordinate implementation with various stakeholders. This learning brief highlights the lessons learned from developing the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) plans in Zomba and Mangochi districts and offers recommendations for other districts planning to implement the National Resilience Strategy (NRS). The brief also discusses the Opportunities for Collaboration between National and District Pillar Leads and Aligning the NRS with Key Government Strategies, particularly the Malawi 2063 (MW 2063), to foster synergy and impact.
    Keywords: MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; resilience; shocks; food security; agriculture; early warning systems; flood control; capacity development; watersheds; catchment
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:136821&r=agr
  22. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés (Cañada Blanch Centre and Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics); Bartalucci, Federico (Cañada Blanch Centre and Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics)
    Abstract: The impacts of climate change are unevenly distributed across territories. Less is known about the potential effects of climate policies aimed at mitigating the negative consequences of climate change, while transitioning economies towards low-carbon standards. This paper presents an analytical framework for identifying and assessing the regional impacts of the green transition. We develop a Regional Green Transition Vulnerability Index, a composite measure of the regional vulnerability of European regions to the socio- economic reconfigurations prompted by the green transition. The index brings to light strong regional variations in vulnerability, with less developed, peri-urban, and rural regions in Southern and Eastern Europe more exposed to the foreseeable changes brought about by the green transition. We also draw attention to the potential rise of pockets of growing ‘green’ discontent, especially if the green transition contributes, as is likely to be the case, to leaving already left-behind regions further behind.
    Keywords: Green transition, environment, left-behind regions, development trap, European Union
    JEL: O44 Q56 R11
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2023/16&r=agr
  23. By: Gataulina, Ekaterina (Гатаулина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ternovskiy, Denis (Терновский, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: One of the priorities of state policy is small business and the development of rural areas. It is obvious that rural small business (SB) is an important aspect of the development of rural areas. However, it has been little studied, which justifies the relevance of the study. The purpose of the work is to analyze the state of rural small business, to identify the peculiarities of its support. The objectives of the study include an analysis of methodological issues of identification and support of small businesses in rural areas, the formation of a database based on a review of information sources, analysis of the current state of, and support measures for, small businesses in rural areas based on the generated data sets. A separate task of the study is to identify the status quo and peculiarities of support for rural small businesses in the context of COVID-19. The work was carried out at the Center for Agri- Food Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021. The main sources of information were data from the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses and the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses receiving support. The two registers are maintained by the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. Comparative, computational-constructive, statistical methods were used. As a result, for the first time, an assessment of the current state of rural small business in Russia was obtained in regional and sectoral cross-sections in terms of the number and density of businesses; in comparison with the urban areas, which is also the novelty of this work. The regions with the highest concentration of rural small business, as well as regions where it develops less successfully, are highlighted. It is shown that the main volume of support for rural SBs falls on agriculture, although the main sphere of rural SBs is trade, transport, and only then agriculture. The results can be used to improve regional and federal policy in the field of rural development. Further research can develop in terms of further monitoring of rural small business, expanding the analysis of the characteristics of rural small businesses, now available through a limited range of indicators, identifying factors affecting the development of rural small businesses.
    Keywords: Small-scale rural entrepreneurship, rural development, government support, agriculture, subsidies and grants, Register of small and medium-sized businesses
    Date: 2021–12–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220152&r=agr
  24. By: Hufschmidt, Patrick; Ume, Chukwuma Otum
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the effects of Anti-Open Grazing Laws (AOGLs) on herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. The laws, enacted as a response to escalating violent conflicts over fertile land resources between herders and farmers, aimed to reduce clashes by prohibiting livestock grazing in specific areas and periods. Our study employs a geographic difference-in-discontinuities design, leveraging the sharp change in legal conditions at state borders and the panel structure of our data. We integrate conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) with spatially disaggregated microdata to analyze how AOGLs influence conflict incidence across regions of Nigeria. Our findings indicate limited effectiveness of AOGLs in curbing herder-farmer conflicts, suggesting instead a displacement of conflicts. It also appears that the laws have led to a slight increase in overall conflict within the states implementing them, arguably due to increased engagements between herder or farmer groups and security forces. These results underscore the need for more comprehensive, context-specific interventions to address the root causes of herder-farmer conflicts.
    Keywords: Conflict, civil war, climate change, ethnicity, resource competition, herder-farmer conflicts
    JEL: D74 N47 Q13 Q34
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:1009&r=agr
  25. By: Yeboah, Samuel
    Abstract: In this systematic review, the intricate relationship between growth and sustainability in developing economies is explored, focusing on Sustainable Development Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The research aims to identify strategies that foster economic growth while promoting responsible consumption and production practices, contributing to a more sustainable future for these nations. By conducting a comprehensive literature search using various databases and keywords, relevant studies meeting the inclusion criteria were selected. Through meticulous data extraction, key insights were gathered to analyse the challenges and opportunities faced by developing economies in achieving a balance between economic prosperity and environmental preservation. The findings shed light on a range of sustainable growth strategies, including those promoting decent work opportunities and social welfare while ensuring environmental sustainability. Successful cases of responsible consumption and production practices are also examined, demonstrating the potential for sustainable development. The implications of this systematic review are vital for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders. Understanding the interconnectedness of growth and sustainability enables decision-makers to devise informed policies and initiatives, guiding developing economies towards green and inclusive pathways of development. This review emphasizes the urgency of achieving SDG 8 and underscores the critical role of developing economies in global sustainability efforts.
    Keywords: Sustainable development, economic growth, sustainability, developing economies, responsible consumption, production practices, SDG 8, green pathways, environmental preservation, social welfare.
    JEL: O10 O20 O44 Q56
    Date: 2023–04–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118180&r=agr
  26. By: Ekpeyong, Paul
    Abstract: This study investigates the dynamics of inflation volatility in Nigeria, with a specific focus on the Food Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI, and Headline CPI. The analysis utilizes the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture time-varying volatility in the inflation rates. The study covers the period from January 1995 to December 2022, employing monthly data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria database. The results indicate that all three inflation series display time-varying volatility, signifying varying degrees of fluctuations and uncertainties in price movements over different periods. Furthermore, the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects in the residuals of the volatility models confirms the dynamic nature of inflation volatility. The study identifies significant structural breaks in the volatility of Food CPI during the years 2000, 2008, and 2018, emphasizing the importance of understanding the drivers of inflation volatility. External events and policy changes during these periods impacted food prices and led to shifts in volatility. Policy recommendations are made to address the challenges posed by inflation volatility in Nigeria. These include implementing price stability measures, enhancing food security, strengthening monetary policy, promoting data transparency and analysis, and undertaking fiscal reforms. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of inflation volatility in Nigeria and provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating effective strategies to manage inflation and achieve macroeconomic stability. The study highlights the importance of monitoring inflation dynamics and implementing timely policies to ensure sustained economic growth and development in the country.
    Keywords: ARCH, Consumer price index, Headline, core, volatility, GARCH
    JEL: E6 E61 E63
    Date: 2023–07–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118128&r=agr
  27. By: See, Priti
    Abstract: This paper explores the potential of biomimetics to revolutionize medical and food waste management systems in the United States. By forging circular economies in these fields, biomimetics can provide robust financial benefits. Furthermore, biomimetics can mitigate waste accumulation and related health hazards from such systems. In light of this paper’s findings, ongoing and long-term financial investments in biomimetic technology are recommended to create sustainable medical and food waste systems on a nationwide scale.
    Date: 2023–08–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x62k5&r=agr
  28. By: Horbach, Jens
    Abstract: The success of climate change measures is highly dependent on household behaviour as one of the most important emission sources of carbon dioxide. Private heating, electricity consumption or private transport are important key levers to reduce households' impacts on climate change. The paper analyses the determinants of climate change related attitudes and activities based on econometric estimations of European survey data. The results show that personal factors such as female gender, qualification and a high income are positively correlated to green behaviour. Persons having difficulties to pay their bills show a lower probability of buying local, climatefriendly products, but a bad economic situation is not a barrier for green attitudes. The results for the political orientation show that politically left and middle oriented persons are more likely for supporting climate change related actions.
    Keywords: Climate change, green household behaviour, European data, multivariate probit model
    JEL: C25 D12 D91 Q01
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:1034&r=agr
  29. By: Donatella Gatti (University Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN UMR-CNRS 7234); Gaye-Del Lo (University Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN UMR-CNRS 7234); Francisco Serranito (University Paris Nanterre, EconomiX UMR-CNRS 7235)
    Abstract: This paper identifies the determinants of OECD Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) index using a panel of 21 European countries for the period 2009-2019. If there is a large literature on the macroeconomic, political, and social determinants of EPS, the people’s attitudes or preferences toward environmental policies is still burgeoning. Thus, the main goal of this paper is to estimate the effects of people’s awareness regarding environmental issues on the EPS indicator. Due to the endogeneity of preferences, we have applied an instrumental variable framework to estimate our empirical model. Our most important result is to show that individual environmental preferences have a positive and significant effect on the level of EPS indicator : on average, a rise in individual preferences of 10% in a country will increase its EPS indicator by 2.30%. Our results have important policy implications.
    Keywords: Environmental policy stringency, Environmental attitudes/concerns, Inequality, Environmental Kuznets curve, EU
    JEL: Q0 Q1 Q3 Q50 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2023.07&r=agr
  30. By: Alberto Chong (Department of Economics, Georgia State University and Universidad del Pacifico); Martin Valdivia (Grupo Analisis para el Desarrrollo (GRADE))
    Abstract: We wrote, produced, and implemented a randomized intervention of a five-episode soap opera focusing on attitudes related to trust and savings. It was shown to females living in poor and violence-scarred rural areas and who received the national conditional cash transfer. We find that one year after the intervention treated females significantly improve their attitudes towards savings, especially as a precautionary motive, which is consistent with the intended message of the intervention.
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2314&r=agr
  31. By: Carter, Colin A.; Steinbach, Sandro
    Abstract: We study the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on corn, wheat, and soybean futures prices. The war provides a natural experiment to evaluate whether futures markets are driven by investor herding. Using event study methods, we find that wheat futures prices rose by 30 percent above the counterfactual immediately after the invasion, more than corn futures prices, which were up by 10 percent. This relative price response cannot be explained by herding behavior. Instead, we argue the larger move in wheat was due to fundamental concerns over the possibility of a complete disruption of Black Sea grain exports, including exports from Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter. Soybean prices did not respond to the war, contradicting herding. There is no statistical evidence of abnormal speculative pressure in the market around the time of the invasion, and we conclude the markets put a fair price on the wartime risk of Black Sea grain shipment disruptions.
    Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, war premium, event study, behavioral finance, herding
    JEL: G13 G14 Q02
    Date: 2023–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118248&r=agr

General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.