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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2023‒05‒15
28 papers chosen by |
| By: | Nassif, Marie-Helene (International Water Management Institute); Abi Saab, M. T.; Tawfik, Mohamed (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Water reuse; Agricultural water use; Water quality standards; Regulations; Guidelines; Policies; Irrigation water; Wastewater; Physicochemical properties; Risk management |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h051740&r=agr |
| By: | Miranda, Javier; Börner, Jan |
| Abstract: | Sustainable use of land resources is at the core of the bioeconomy, and it is of central importance for development in the coming decades. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals reflect this aspect of development both directly and indirectly. Important global trends, such as a growing and richer world population, are consistently increasing demand for biomass products, leading to tradeoffs among related goals such as “Zero Hunger” and “Life on Land.” Regarding land supply for biomass production, there is a need for agricultural land and pressure in forest areas. Empirical evidence at regional and global levels points to land suitability, local and international markets, and governance as major drivers of land supply for the bioeconomy. However, global models lack an economically consistent description of the divergence between legal requirements for land use (de jure) and current land use trends (de facto) in tropical regions, where these tradeoffs are expected to be higher. Our analysis empirically estimates the average marginal effect of the socioeconomic, climatic, and governance drivers of land supply in the tropics. We used subnational panel data to construct a fractional response model to estimate these effects. Then, we used the econometric results to calculate heterogeneous individual land supply elasticities to commodity prices at the subnational level. Our results support the idea that in forest-abundant areas, soaring prices reinforce agricultural land expansion. Further, our results support previous evidence that the type of governance (conventional or environmental) determines the likelihood of a reduction or expansion of agricultural land in the tropics but with a very small magnitude compared to other drivers. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2023–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:334202&r=agr |
| By: | Mastrangelo, João Paulo; Gori Maia, Alexandre |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the extent to which farms with secure land rights are less prone to deforest and more likely to comply with the Forest Code in the Brazilian Amazon. We use a unique dataset with farm-level information for the whole population of farms in the state of Acre, Brazil. We work with a proxy for land tenure security defined as the absence of overlapping property rights, which means that for each rural plot, there is only one land title attesting to whom the legal ownership belongs. We evaluate the impacts of secure land right on the farm's share of the deforested area and the likelihood that farmers comply with the Brazilian Forest Code, which defines a limit of 20% of the deforested area in each farm. The non-randomness between the treatment (land security) and control (land insecurity) groups is controlled using the inverse probability weighting regression adjustment. Our results highlight that land tenure security reduces the deforested area and increases compliance with the Forest Code. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc23:334335&r=agr |
| By: | Antonio Accetturo (Bank of Italy); Matteo Alpino (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of weather shocks on yield of corn, durum wheat, and grapevine using two-way fixed effect models on Italian province-level panel data at the annual frequency. Our estimates reveal substantial non-linearity in the effect of temperature on agricultural yields, in line with the literature. Furthermore, grapevine appears less sensitive to heat than cereals. Combining our estimates with projections on future climate under the A1B scenario, we find that by 2030 the effects of climate change on crop yield will be non-negative. The crop at the highest risk of losses is corn. |
| Keywords: | temperature shocks, precipitation, agricultural yields, climate change |
| JEL: | Q10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_756_23&r=agr |
| By: | Franzel, Steven |
| Abstract: | About 1.5 billion people, most of the world’s poor, live on small farms in developing countries. Improving livelihoods requires investing in their “agriculture human capital†: skills, abilities and knowledge, social and personal attributes and experience to enable them to farm productively and sustainably. These include technical agricultural skills in crops and livestock, business skills in marketing, records, as well as functional skills such as empowerment, leadership, and innovation. There is high demand for human capital development but public agencies often cannot provide it and smallholders cannot afford to pay for it. There is great need for it as agriculture becomes more commercial, information- and skill-intensive and climate change increases weather hazards. This brief aims to assess the private sector’s role in developing smallholder human capital, and the advantages, limitations and challenges of this involvement. It outlines how development agencies and governments can facilitate the private sector to increase investment. The brief concludes with recommendations on how development agencies and governments can support and facilitate private sector investment. The main providers of non-formal agricultural train ing are extension and advisory services (EAS), mainly government, private companies, NGOs and farmer organizations. Other providers include agricultural technical and vocational education and training centres, on-the-job training such as internships, and informal interaction between farmers. |
| Keywords: | poverty; small farmers; developing countries; livelihoods; agriculture; climate change; weather hazards; private sector; investment; development; extension programmes |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:136631&r=agr |
| By: | Ferreira Balieiro, Samuel |
| Abstract: | Estimating farmers’ supply responses to changes in framework conditions is important to inform decision-makers on the expected impacts on production volume as well as the resulting land-use shifts. Existing agricultural supply response models generally require either larger databases with farm-level data for microregional analysis or are implemented with a coarse resolution (e.g., country level) due to the lack of data. While such approaches are suitable for regions with abundancy of data or for global-scale analysis, there is a need for an alternative for micro-level analysis in countries with low data availability. In addition, it is important to include the spatial component in the regional supply response analysis, allowing not only the quantification of the overall change in output but also the likely spatial land-use change. Against this background, this dissertation aims to answer the research question whether a combination of a biophysical model with farm-level economic data can be used to estimate farm-level profitability of individual crops and respective cropping systems and thereby simulate farmers’ supply responses in countries with limited data availability. To answer this question, a new modeling approach called Profitability Assessment Model (PAM) is developed, tested and validated. This new modeling approach follows the principles of minimum data, focusing on delivering timely and quantitative analyses with satisfactory accuracy to inform decision-makers. That is an important feature since the overall goal of the concept is to limit the data required by the model to a minimum, allowing quick implementation while accepting moderate accuracy. The PAM is a spatially explicit model with simulation units’ size of spatial resolution grid varying between 5 and 30 arcmin (10x10 to 50x50 km in area), following that used by the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM). PAM estimates the profitability of each farming alternative at the simulation unit level and allocates the land to maximize farmers’ return to land. The PAM model is developed and calibrated for the Brazilian agricultural sector. Using Brazil as the case study is interesting due to its overall importance in the global production of agricultural commodities as well as the environmental impact of land-use changes. For this case study, four production system are represented in the PAM model: (a) double cropping of soybeans and maize, (b) soybeans with a cover crop, (c) sugarcane monoculture and (d) beef production. While the profitability of the arable crops is endogenously estimated, beef is considered as an opt-out option, which is modeled based on exogenous return-to-land information. Since soybean, maize and sugarcane production accounts for 84% of the total seeded area in Brazil, the current version of the PAM model represents the most important cropping alternatives to farmers in Brazil, but not all. An important methodological contribution of the dissertation is the development of routines for the extrapolation of each production cost component from the known typical farms’ data to all regions in the country. These routines are based on local expertise as well as existing information on yield levels, prevailing production systems and farming conditions. Each cost component is analyzed individually and, based on theoretical discussions, specific cost functions are proposed following the expected behavior of each cost item – e.g., linear relationship with yields or fixed per ha. That should improve the accuracy of the model in estimating production costs (and finally profitability) while also allowing the model to be adapted to simulate changes in framework conditions that may affect only selected cost items (e.g., a significant increase in fuel prices). In addition, the PAM model improves on existing models because it accounts for specific cost components such as the transport of sugarcane from farm to mill, which is required due to the perishability of the crop. Besides the important impact of inbound transport cost on the overall profitability of sugarcane production, the endogenous simulation of this cost item allows the model to spatially differentiate among regions depending on the current availability of mills. A major constraint for regional profitability analysis is the lack of information regarding farm input and output prices. To overcome this problem, the PAM model provides an interesting alternative by endogenously estimating prices via the transport module. By considering the different transportation costs of each crop and basing the distance estimation on the actual availability of roads, the model allows a straightforward conversion of reference prices to farm-gate prices. The ability to endogenously simulate transport cost is a useful feature for the simulation of scenarios based on price shocks. Apart from the development of the modeling approach, this dissertation focuses on the quantitative model validation as a key step to identify strengths and limitations of the concept. Projected yields are validated against regional statistics and production cost estimates are benchmarked against the two available datasets, with a suitable number of primary typical-farm data. Furthermore, the resulting land-use maps are evaluated against two simplified validation maps representing current land use. In the business-as-usual scenario, the PAM model estimates a national weighted average of returns to land of 248 USD/ha for double cropping and 188 USD/ha for sugarcane. This relationship, however, is different in the states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, where, on average, sugarcane has a higher return to land than double cropping. Benchmarking PAM’s production cost estimates with observed local data shows a satisfactory model accuracy with a relative mean absolute error (rMAE) lower than 14%. The lowest error found in the production cost estimation is in sugarcane (rMAE of 8.7%) and the highest in second-crop maize (rMAE of 14%). The validation of the business-as-usual land-use map shows that the PAM model is able to satisfactorily reproduce the current land use in Brazil. The visual and quantitative validation results show a strong correlation between the available land-use maps, with PAM allocating the same crop as observed in 86% of total arable land. To test the ability of the PAM model to predict land-use and output changes due to changing framework conditions, a scenario analysis is carried out: What will happen in case yields of key crops change significantly as a consequence of climate change? Due to the strong reduction in the returns to land for grains (i.e., maize and soybeans) in the tropical region more than 24% of the current arable land is simulated to move from grains to sugarcane production. These results, however, vary significantly in the different regions, where the most affected states are Goiás, Paraná and Mato Grosso, jointly accounting for more than 55% of the total land-use change. This dissertation contributes to the overall development of regional farmers’ supply response models for countries with limited data availability, showing that it is feasible to combine a biophysical model and farm-level economic data as the basis for the profitability estimation in a high spatial resolution. The ability to estimate individual cost components separately gives the model the required flexibility for the simulation of market- and policy-related questions, providing timely and accurate information for decision-makers. The bottom-up approach based on local expertise is an important strength of the PAM model, avoiding unrealistic parametrization and ensuring that the majority of local features of production systems are included in the estimation. Finally, considering the overall goal of using minimum data, the model accuracy indicates a strong potential of the model to answer research questions, with additional parametrization and integration expected to further improve its performance. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2023–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwo:334261&r=agr |
| By: | Nassif, Marie-Helene (International Water Management Institute); Tawfik, Mohamed (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Water reuse; Agricultural water use; Planning; Water governance; Guidelines; Multi-stakeholder processes; Regulations; Institutions; Cost recovery; Water rights; Wastewater; Political aspects |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h051744&r=agr |
| By: | Chambers, Adam |
| Abstract: | Excerpts from the Introduction: Environmental markets can be leveraged by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to help accomplish the agency’s mission of delivering conservation solutions so agricultural producers can protect natural resources and feed a growing world. This technical note has been developed to explain how environmental markets can help get more conservation on the ground. Environmental markets can be used as an economically efficient mechanism that helps identify the least-cost options for addressing some of our Nation’s most challenging environmental problems. These markets take the form of carbon markets, water quality markets, water quantity markets, and wildlife habitat markets. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Marketing, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:unrctn:334259&r=agr |
| By: | Gebrezgabher, Solomie (International Water Management Institute); Kodua, T.; Mateo-Sagasta, Javier (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Water reuse; Projects; Cost recovery; Economic analysis; Cost benefit analysis; Wastewater treatment plants; Agriculture; Landscaping; Investment; Potable water; Prices; Aquifers; Groundwater recharge |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h051739&r=agr |
| By: | Ludovic Mbakop (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus via Mersin 10, Turkey); Glenn Jenkins (Queen's University); Leonard Leung (Asian Development Bank, Manilla, The Philippines); Kamil Sertoglu (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus via Mersin 10, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study measures the impact of traceability attributes on international buyers’ willingness to pay for coffee produced in Ethiopia and the impact of accurate information on the production location of the coffee on the pricing according to its type and grade. Two sets of regressions models were used to investigate the important determinant factors affecting the export prices of trader and producer coffee, one each for trader and producer coffee, to measure the impact of the ECX on the prices and to evaluate the effect of the coffee types and grades on the prices. The results show that after coffee was forced to be traded via the ECX, traceable coffee export prices increased more than the reported price of non-traceable coffee. We also found that after the introduction of the ECX, the reported export prices of coffee were much more closely aligned to the movements in the international prices of coffee than before the ECX. Furthermore, we also find evidence that exporters and overseas buyers do not trust the results of the inspection and grading of coffee by the ECX unless traceability is also present. This is the first study to evaluate foreign buyers’ willingness to pay for the attribute of traceability of Ethiopian coffee and to see how traceability has affected buyers’ trust in the grades given by the ECX for the coffee it graded. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopian commodity exchange, Ethiopian coffee, Coffee traceability, Commoditization |
| JEL: | D40 E23 Q17 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1504&r=agr |
| By: | Marine Jouvin (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, West Africa, Afrique de l'Ouest, Côte d'Ivoire, Cacao |
| Date: | 2022–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04066369&r=agr |
| By: | Timo Boppart; Patrick Kiernan; Per Krusell; Hannes Malmberg |
| Abstract: | Developing countries employ a very large share of their workforce in agriculture, a sector in which their labor productivity is particularly low. We take a macroeconomic approach to analyze the role of agriculture in development. We construct a new database with systematic measures of inputs and outputs of agricultural production around the globe. The data exhibits strong neoclassical features: going from poor to rich countries, capital and intermediate input prices decline dramatically relative to labor prices; concurrently, capital and intermediate input use in agriculture increases by a factor of 300–800 relative to labor. Input intensification accounts for a bit less than two thirds of the agricultural labor productivity gap between the poorest and richest countries. Our observations are well explained by an aggregate agricultural production function with input substitutabilities significantly above unity. On the demand side, standard non-homothetic preferences accurately capture how the expenditure share of agricultural goods varies across the development spectrum. We incorporate our findings into a closed-economy general-equilibrium model with minimal distortions, showing that non-agricultural TFP differences play a much more important role than agricultural TFP differences in explaining income differences. |
| JEL: | E0 O0 O13 Q0 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31101&r=agr |
| By: | Sviataslau Valasiuk (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Faculty of Forest Sciences, School for Forest Management, Forest-Landscape-Society Network) |
| Abstract: | Despite their recent global expansion in nominal terms, many transboundary nature protected areas tend to avoid hands-on cross-border co-operation. One common explanation which is widely seen a major obstacle towards the concerted transboundary conservation is international free riding on the centralised decision-making level. I examine empirically whether international free-riding is embedded in citizens’ stated preferences for extended protection in the case of two transboundary nature protected areas Białowieża Forest and Fulufjället. I scrutinise a sub-set of merged survey samples from the four countries involved, including only the citizens assumingly incentivised to free-ride on unilateral foreign country’s conservation action. I apply attitudinal indicators to form effect-coded variables that measure free-riding, and control for use value, nationality, individual socioeconomic characteristics, and incentive compatibility of the survey design. The results indicate no widespread tendency of international free-riding; the conclusion is maintained with varying modelling approaches or sampling strategy employed. |
| Keywords: | transboundary nature protected areas, stated preferences, public good, free-riding, binary logit, negative binomial regression |
| JEL: | H41 Q23 Q28 Q51 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2023-09&r=agr |
| By: | Osaid Alshamleh (Department of Accounting and Finance, Cyprus International University, Hespolat, Mersin 10, Turkey); Glenn Jenkins (Queen's University); Tufan Ekici (Department of Economics, Ramapo College of New Jersey, Mahwah, N.J. USA) |
| Abstract: | The estimation and analysis of the distribution of the negative health impacts of certain commodities subject to excise taxes in Belize and the distribution of the burdens of the excise taxes across households of different income levels are the focus of this article. Particular attention is given to the taxation of soft drinks and cosmetics. We examine the income distribution and tax revenue impacts using the commodity data from the household expenditure survey by and the effective tax rates expressed as a percentage of the value of the final consumption of each item. As in many developing countries, taxes on alcoholic beverages and tobacco products are found to be regressive. The most regressive excise taxes are on soft drinks and cosmetics. Households across the economy pay more in excise taxes on cosmetics than they do on either alcoholic beverages or tobacco products. Relative to the level of household expenditures, the burden of the excise taxes on cosmetics is highest for households in the lowest quintile of total expenditures. The impact of soft drinks in creating obesity is likely to be much greater for high income households whose total consumption per household is twice that of low-income households. |
| Keywords: | excise tax, tax incidence, cosmetics, soft drinks, obesity, regressivity, Belize |
| JEL: | H22 L66 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1502&r=agr |
| By: | Christopher J. Smith; Alaa Al Khourdajie; Pu Yang; Doris Folini |
| Abstract: | Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs). However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider climate uncertainty in their construction. Here we show that climate uncertainty alone significantly changes the cost-benefit optimal CO$_2$ emissions, varying from -14 to +12 GtCO$_2$ yr$^{-1}$ in 2050 (5-95% range) for an ensemble of scenarios that limit warming to 1.5{\deg}C with low overshoot. Climate uncertainty is also responsible for a factor of five range in the social cost of carbon (SCC) in this scenario ensemble. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the strength of present-day aerosol radiative forcing are strong determinants of SCC and optimal mid-century CO$_2$ emissions. This confirms that reducing climate uncertainty can refine cost-optimal emissions projections, and points to a missing feedback between climate and emissions in scenario construction. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.08957&r=agr |
| By: | Germán Caruso; Inés de Marcos; Ilan Noy |
| Abstract: | Climate change severely impacts critical facets of human capital across the life cycle. This is particularly alarming as both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather shocks continue to increase, and extremes appear to be the main channel of causality. At the same time, human capital has a vital role in driving effective climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here, we provide a framework for analyzing the multiple interlinkages between climate change and human capital and document the existing evidence on the impacts of climate change damages, and the effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation, on human capital across the life cycle. The framework presents two channels through which human capital is affected: direct effects on health, nutrition, and wellbeing, and indirect effects through changes in economic systems, markets, and through damage to infrastructure. These two channels call for different policy interventions, focusing on the different stages of the life cycle. For mitigation and adaptation, we find that while these are overall clearly beneficial, they are also associated with significant human capital costs for specific sectors and groups in society. Ignoring these costs can only lead to worse outcomes, as it can lead to diminishing public support for the required mitigation and adaptation (as has arguably been the case with globalization). Since there is also evidence that high human capital improves adaptation and mitigation, this suggests that adaptation and mitigation that accounts and compensates for these ‘sectoral’ losses can create a virtuous cycle that leads to positive outcomes for both climatic action and human capital. |
| Keywords: | climate change, human capital, mitigation, adaptation, health, education, labor |
| JEL: | I14 I15 I24 I25 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10374&r=agr |
| By: | Bencsik, Panka (University of Chicago); Lusher, Lester (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Taylor, Rebecca L.C. (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic data in Los Angeles. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to dine out and less likely to grocery shop. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost. |
| Keywords: | traffic congestion, time constraints, store choice, nutrition, fast food |
| JEL: | I12 I30 J22 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16036&r=agr |
| By: | Richard Freund (University of Cape Town, School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In 2021, Ethiopia experienced a prolonged drought after two consecutive failed rainy seasons. This paper investigates the effect of the drought on young adults’ experiences of anxiety and depression by applying a difference-in-differences strategy to this event, in a natural experiment. I construct a Standardised Precipitation Index using 40 years of satellite rainfall data to exogenously measure local drought intensity and combine with unique longitudinal data. I find that exposure to the drought increases the probability of young adults experiencing symptoms consistent with either mild or severe anxiety (depression) by nearly 12 (10) percentage points. This represents a 63% and 55% increase relative to the pre-drought sample averages, respectively. These results are robust across alternative model specifications and a variety of sensitivity checks. The impact on depression is driven by those who were severely exposed to the drought, while both mild and severe exposure affect anxiety. The drought has a greater impact on individuals in rural households, those working in agriculture, and on individuals born into the poorest households. According to the mediation model estimated, the increase in mental health issues may partly be explained by the drought’s impact on inflation, perceived household poverty, and physical illness. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:294&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-Marie Cardebat (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | Vin, Théorie Economique, Algorithmes, Viticulture, Prix, Bordeaux, Vente, Industrie Viticole |
| Date: | 2022–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04067898&r=agr |
| By: | Mário S. Céu; Raquel M. Gaspar |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on the prediction of financial distress of agricultural firms operating in the vineyards and olive crops sectors in Mediterranean countries, specifically in Portugal, Spain, and Italy, which are considered to be crucial for the production of these crops. The sample size of the study is 5, 057 firms. Twelve models are presented, estimated from subsamples of combinations between countries and crops. Logistic regression is used for the estimation of these models. The accuracy of the models is evaluated, taking into account the importance of misclassification costs. Additionally, the areas under the ROC curves are calculated and compared in a dynamic of possible combinations between crops and countries. The study concludes that there are differences between the two sectors, as well as across countries, and suggests that dedicated models for each country or crop may improve the the models’ accuracy. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, financial distress, prediction models, ROC curves |
| JEL: | G24 G33 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02662023&r=agr |
| By: | Rozinskaya Natalia (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Chaplygina Irina (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Sorokin Alexander (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | The article is devoted to the analysis of one of the features of the behavior of peasant farms that distinguishes them from the behavior of firms, namely the tendency to reduce production volumes in response to the improvement of market conditions (inertness, in the terminology of N.D.Kondratiev). The authors turn to theoretical explanations of this trend, in particular in the works of A.Chayanov, and then attempt to test the reliability of the identified feature on Russian data from the beginning of the XX century. Having analyzed the dynamics of the amount of land plowed by peasants in response to the dynamics of prices in various provinces of Russia, the authors find a significant negative correlation. Comparing with similar results for landlords, the authors come to conclusion that negative correlation is specific only to peasant farms, thereby proving the hypothesis of inertness. |
| Keywords: | Peasant economy, the inertia of the household, price elasticity of supply, cultivated areas, A.V. Chayanov, Russian empire, XIX-XX century |
| JEL: | Q10 Q12 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0052&r=agr |
| By: | Francisco Estrada; Richard S. J. Tol; Wouter Botzen |
| Abstract: | Damage functions in integrated assessment models (IAMs) map changes in climate to economic impacts and form the basis for most of estimates of the social cost of carbon. Implicit in these functions lies an unwarranted assumption that restricts the spatial variation (Svar) and temporal variability (Tvar) of changes in climate to be null. This could bias damage estimates and the climate policy advice from IAMs. While the effects of Tvar have been studied in the literature, those of Svar and their interactions with Tvar have not. Here we present estimates of the economic costs of climate change that account for both Tvar and Svar, as well as for the seasonality of damages across sectors. Contrary to the results of recent studies which show little effect that of Tvar on expected losses, we reveal that ignoring Svar produces large downward biases, as warming is highly heterogeneous over space. Using a conservative calibration for the damage function, we show that previous estimates are biased downwards by about 23-36%, which represents additional losses of about US$1, 400-US$2, 300 billion by 2050 and US$17-US$28 trillion by the end of the century, under a high emissions scenario. The present value of losses during the period 2020-2100 would be larger than reported in previous studies by $47-$66 trillion or about 1/2 to 3/4 of annual global GDP in 2020. Our results imply that using global mean temperature change in IAMs as a summary measure of warming is not adequate for estimating the costs of climate change. Instead, IAMs should include a more complete description of climate conditions. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.08049&r=agr |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Richard Berner; Robert F. Engle III; Hyeyoon Jung; Johannes Stroebel; Xuran Zeng; Yihao Zhao |
| Abstract: | We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macro-prudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices; (ii) better understand and incorporate feedback loops between climate change and the economy; and (iii) further explore “compound risk” scenarios in which climate risks co-occur with other risks. We discuss how the process of mapping climate stress scenarios into financial firm outcomes can incorporate existing evidence on the effects of various climate-related risks on credit and market outcomes. We argue that more research is required to (i) identify channels through which plausible scenarios can lead to meaningful short-run impact on credit risks given typical bank loan maturities; (ii) incorporate bank-lending responses to climate risks; (iii) assess the adequacy of climate risk pricing in financial markets; and (iv) better understand and incorporate the process of expectations formation around the realizations of climate risks. Finally, we discuss the relative advantages and disadvantages of using market-based climate stress tests that can be conducted using publicly available data to complement existing stress testing frameworks. |
| JEL: | G0 Q0 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31097&r=agr |
| By: | Hao-Ran Liu; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | The Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) and its sub-indices of wheat, maize, soyabeans, rice, and barley are daily price indexes reflect the price changes of the global spot markets of staple agro-food crops. In this paper, we carry out a visibility graph (VG) analysis of the GOI and its five sub-indices. Maximum likelihood estimation shows that the degree distributions of the VGs display power-law tails, except for rice. The average clustering coefficients of the six VGs are quite large (>0.5) and exhibit a nice power-law relation with respect to the average degrees of the VGs. For each VG, the clustering coefficients of nodes are inversely proportional to their degrees for large degrees and are correlated to their degrees as a power law for small degrees. All the six VGs exhibit small-world characteristics to some extent. The degree-degree correlation coefficients shows that the VGs for maize and soyabeans indices exhibit weak assortative mixing patterns, while the other four VGs are weakly disassortative. The average nearest neighbor degree functions have similar patterns, and each function shows a more complex mixing pattern which decreases for small degrees, increases for mediate degrees, and decreases again for large degrees. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.05760&r=agr |
| By: | Olayinka Oyekola (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Lotanna E. Emediegwu (Department of Economics, Policy and International Business, Manchester Metropolitan University); Jubril Olayinka Animashaun (Department of Economics, University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | There are considerable differences in greenhouse gas emissions across countries, with little consensus on the extent to which political regimes affect environmental outcomes. This paper shows that the incentives that resource endowments and prices generate are key to understanding the influence of political regimes on emission outcomes. We analyze the relationship between commodity windfalls and CO2 emissions in a model of stratified political regimes, identifying the limits of democracies for environmental quality. To study the impact of international commodity prices on CO2 emissions, we use a panel of 179 countries covering the period 1970 to 2018. We then explore democracies and autocracies as channels for the heterogeneous effects of commodity windfalls on environmental quality. Our panel fixed effects estimation strategies account for the rich dynamics of contemporaneous emissions. Our baseline results show that commodity windfalls increase CO2 emissions in the long run. Similarly, countries with above threshold scores by measures of democratic institutions, such as executive recruitment, executive constraints, and political competition, have a significantly higher levels of CO2 emissions than those with lower scores. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | commodity windfalls, democracy, environmental quality, carbon emissions |
| JEL: | Q56 Q33 O13 H87 H11 |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2306&r=agr |
| By: | Magalie Dubois (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | vin, formation, alimentation, alcool, goût |
| Date: | 2022–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04066555&r=agr |
| By: | Tawfik, Mohamed (International Water Management Institute); Nassif, Marie-Helene (International Water Management Institute); Mahjoub, O.; Mahmoud, A. E. D.; Kassab, G.; Alomair, M.; Hoogesteger, J. |
| Keywords: | Water reuse; Water policies; Institutional development; Case studies; Wastewater treatment; Infrastructure; Water resources; Government; Regulations; Monitoring |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h051738&r=agr |
| By: | Dikshya Singh (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment) |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights the crucial role of energy in economic growth and the potential benefits of increased access to clean and affordable energy. The brief also emphasizes the importance of sustainable development given Nepal's social and ecological vulnerabilities. It presents pathways to green structural transformation and discusses the co-benefits of replacing petroleum products with cleaner energy sources. Overall, this brief aims to provide insights on how Nepal can achieve rapid and equitable economic growth while promoting sustainable development through a transition to clean energy. |
| Keywords: | Nepal , Clean energy , Economic growth , Sustainable development , Green structural transformation , Petroleum products , Renewable energy , Energy efficiency , Net-zero emissions , Climate change , Industrialization , Environmental costs , Fossil fuels , Policy overhaul , Economic readjustments |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saw:ibrief:ib/22/01&r=agr |