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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2023‒04‒24
forty-nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Pelikan, Janine; Boimah, Mavis; Chibanda, Craig; Deblitz, Claus; Gunarathne, Anoma; Almadani, Isam Mohamad; Schott, Johanna; Thobe, Petra; Weible, Daniela; Zamani, Omid |
| Abstract: | Like many other African countries, Ghana and Senegal import large quantities of meat and dairy products from overseas. As this trend rises, together with critical discussions about the consequences for local producers and food security, the role of exports from Europe to African countries has become an intensively discussed topic. It is often argued that imported products are lowering or impeding domestic production due to increased competition in Africa. In this context, the EU agricultural and trade policies are often criticized. We aim to develop and evaluate measures to avoid or reduce the undesirable effects of these exports. In the group of livestock products, we focus on poultry meat and milk products. We investigate the above-mentioned issues in the areas of politics, trade, production technology, value chains, and consumer preferences. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333432&r=agr |
| By: | Nath, Ishan |
| Abstract: | This paper combines local temperature treatment effects with a quantitative macroeconomic model to assess the potential for global reallocation between agricultural and non-agricultural production to reduce the costs of climate change. First, I use firm-level panel data from a wide range of countries to show that extreme heat reduces productivity less in manufacturing and services than in agriculture, implying that hot countries could achieve large potential gains through adapting to global warming by shifting labor toward manufacturing and increasing imports of food. To investigate the likelihood that such gains will be realized, I embed the estimated productivity effects in a model of sectoral specialization and trade covering 158 countries. Simulations suggest that climate change does little to alter the geography of agricultural production, however, as high trade barriers in developing countries temper the influence of shifting comparative advantage. Instead, climate change accentuates the existing pattern, known as “the food problem, ” in which poor countries specialize heavily in relatively low productivity agricultural sectors to meet subsistence consumer needs. The productivity effects of climate change reduce welfare by 6-10% for the poorest quartile of the world with trade barriers held at current levels, but by nearly 70% less in an alternative policy counterfactual that moves low-income countries to OECD levels of trade openness. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333404&r=agr |
| By: | Benjamin Ouvrard (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raphaële Préget (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Arnaud Reynaud (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Laetitia Tuffery (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | We use a discrete choice experiment with treatments to test if voluntary adoption of smart water meters by French farmers can be fostered by i) a collective conditional subsidy offered to farmers who adopt a smart meter only if the rate of adoption in their geographic area is sufficiently high, and ii) informational nudges. Using a sample of 1, 272 farmers, we find contrasted results regarding our nudges, but we show that a conditional subsidy is an effective tool to foster adoption of smart meters. Interestingly, the willingness to pay for the conditional subsidy is equal to the subsidy amount and independent of the collective adoption threshold. |
| Keywords: | Choice experiment, Nudges, French farmers, Smart water meters, incentives |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04043374&r=agr |
| By: | Johnson, David; Geldner, Nathan; Liu, Jing; Baldos, Uris Lantz; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Biobased energy, particularly corn starch-based ethanol and other liquid renewable fuels, are a major element of federal and state energy policies in the United States. These policies are motivated by energy security and climate change mitigation objectives, but corn ethanol does not substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions when compared to petroleum-based fuels. Corn production also imposes substantial negative externalities (e.g., nitrogen leaching, higher food prices, water scarcity, and indirect land use change). In this paper, we utilize a partial equilibrium model of corn-soy production and trade to analyze the potential of reduced US demand for corn as a biobased energy feedstock to mitigate increases in nitrogen leaching, crop production and land use associated with growing global populations and income from 2020 to 2050. We estimate that a 23% demand reduction would sustain land use and nitrogen leaching below 2020 levels through the year 2025, and a 41% reduction would do so through 2030. Outcomes are similar across major watersheds where corn and soy are intensively farmed. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333475&r=agr |
| By: | Tanguy Bernard (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sylvie Lambert (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Karen Macours (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Margaux Vinez |
| Abstract: | Since the 1960s, the increased availability of modern seed varieties in developing countries has had large positive effects on households' well-being. However, the effect of related land use changes on deforestation and biodiversity is ambiguous. This study examines this question through a randomized control trial in a remote area in the Congo Basin rainforest with weak input and output markets. Using plot-level data on land conversion combined with remote sensing data, we find that promotion of modern seed varieties did not lead to an increase in overall deforestation by small farmers. However, farmers cleared more primary forest and less secondary forest. We attribute this to the increased demand for nitrogen required by the use of some modern seed varieties, and to the lack of alternative sources of soil nutrients, which induced farmers to shift towards cultivation of land cleared in primary forest. Unless combined with interventions to maintain soil fertility, policies to promote modern seed varieties may come at the cost of important losses in biodiversity. |
| Keywords: | Agroecology, Agriculture, Environmental economics, Environmental impact |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04049025&r=agr |
| By: | Guillaume Gruère; Emanuela Migliaccio; Ethan Ellis; Wataru Kodama; Lapo Roffredi; Veronika Vanisova |
| Abstract: | Governments in many countries are pursuing higher environmental goals for agriculture. However, in an interconnected world, the unilateral adoption of environmental policies for agriculture can reduce the producers’ competitiveness and induce pollution leakage. This report analyses these challenges and discusses policy solutions, focusing on two examples: climate change mitigation policies and policies limiting the environmental impacts of pesticides. The extent of competitiveness and leakage effects is found to depend on market conditions, differences in pollution intensity, and the type of environmental policy adopted. Two policy routes are identified to improve agriculture’s environmental performance while maintaining the benefits of global markets. The first route relies on “direct” environmental policies, such as market-based instruments or regulations, which are rapidly effective in limiting environmental impacts but may require additional complementary policies to limit their potential competitiveness and leakage impacts. The second route involves alternative policies acting on agricultural supply, demand, or through private sector engagement, which limit competitiveness and leakage impacts but may require time to be environmentally effective. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture policy, Climate change, Competitiveness, Environmental policy, Pesticides, Pollution leakage, Trade policy |
| JEL: | Q17 Q18 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:193-en&r=agr |
| By: | Charlotte Emlinger (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Karine Latouche (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of the inclusion of GIs in bilateral agreements on French exports of foodstuffs. To do so, we rely on a unique dataset of firms and products concerned by Geographical Indications (GIs) in the French agri-food industry (excluding wine) for 2012-2017, merged with firm-product level data from French Customs and French National Institute of Statistics. Controlling for markets and firms characteristics, we exploit the time dimension of the agreements and compare GI firms exports before and after the signature of the 13 agreements (25 destination countries) which include GI list to protect. We explore both the impact of the agreements on the probability of firms to export (the extensive margin of trade), their exports in value and quantity (the intensive margin) and their price. We also consider the heterogeneous impact of agreements according to the kind of products (cheese, meat, other), the size of firms and destination characteristics (existence of similar geographical indications for domestic products). |
| Keywords: | Bilateral trade agreements, Firm level data, Export performance, Trade margins |
| Date: | 2023–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04033399&r=agr |
| By: | Alessandro, Gatto; Kuiper, Marijke; van Meijl, Hans |
| Abstract: | Transitioning to a more sustainable food system requires identifying synergies between nutritional targets (SDG2) and FLW generation (SDG12.3), assessing FLW along global FSC when diets shift to more sustainable consumption. Bridging economic and technical modelling of FLW, we trace FLW in physical quantities along global FSC in a global economic model. We compile a new global FLW database and investigate how transitioning towards the EAT-Lancet diet influences FLW magnitude, composition and location along FSC in 2030. The EAT-Lancet diet reduces FLW generation along FSC, enlarging shares of non-processed plant-based products, highly suitable for reuse. Nonetheless, as the diet increases food trade, imports from high-income regions generate large amounts of losses in low- and mid-income regions, requiring complementary policies to achieve SDG12.3 on a global scale. We address current FLW data and methodological inconsistencies, providing a starting point for bridging economic and technical models to assist policies and multidisciplinary investigations on FLW. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333418&r=agr |
| By: | Wang, Zhan; Martha, Geraldo; Liu, Jing; De Lima, Cicero Zanetti; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Transportation cost has played an increasingly important role in Brazil agriculture, as the agricultural production frontier expands to inland area with less developed transportation network. High transportation cost would result in less agricultural profitability, which further reduces input use and causes lower yield. To deal with this problem, Brazil has set ambitious plan on improving transportation infrastructure, but its impact on agricultural production and deforestation remains unknown. To research the implications of transportation cost for Brazil agriculture and environment, we developed an innovation method of estimating transportation cost on spatial level for Brazil, and research the impact of projected transportation cost reduction with a grid-resolving partial equilibrium model on Brazilian agriculture, on national, state level and spatial level. Results indicates that the reduction of transportation cost causes moderate increase in both crop production and cropland expansion. However, that impact shows strong variance on State level, causing concentration of input allocations and output production to states of Mato Grosso and Bahia. Finally, spatial pattern within each state are also identified, which would contribute to local-targeted agricultural and transportation policy making. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333501&r=agr |
| By: | Randolph, Hannah |
| Abstract: | A number of developing countries use land expropriation policies to expand cities and develop peri-urban areas. In China alone, an average of 1, 600 square kilometers were expropriated annually between 2004 and 2018. The impact of this urban development strategy on expropriated households is not well-understood. I estimate the causal effect of expropriation on Chinese households' livelihood choice and earned income, relying on panel data and comparison to non-expropriated households to observe how household-level outcomes change in response to expropriation. Controlling for baseline outcomes, I find that for at least the first two years, expropriation reduces household agricultural participation and production but does not increase other types of income-generating activities. The result is reduced food security and ability to earn income. Compensation paid to households does not fully offset these effects in cases where households lose all their land or are uncompensated. These findings suggest concrete policies governments can implement to lessen the negative welfare impacts of urban development on expropriated households: higher compensation rates, development of rural non-agricultural labor markets, and direct food assistance to expropriated households. |
| Keywords: | Land rights, Land expropriation, Household welfare, China |
| JEL: | H13 O15 Q15 |
| Date: | 2023–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116766&r=agr |
| By: | Thom, Ferike |
| Abstract: | Disruptions of international trade chains are omnipresent: The COVID-19 pandemic, the recent US-Chinese “trade war” and the congestion of the Suez Canal. What are the effects and underlying mechanisms of a comprehensive trade stop? To answer these questions, I used the partial equilibrium model CAPRI and simulated an almost complete stop for all food imports into the EU. In the import stop scenario, EU prices increased for all products, but to different extent. This led to an increase in agricultural production, which caused an increase in GHG emissions. The EU’s trading partners experienced a decrease in income from exports. As also the EU’s exports decreased, the trading partners substituted these through an increase in domestic production. This increase was largest in animal production which is associated with a high value-added and thus income opportunities to the concerned regions. These results clearly show that an EU import stop in food has a substantial negative impact in monetary and environmental terms in- and outside of the EU. However, the results suggest that a reduction of EU exports can foster the economic development in other regions. I could show that the effects of a comprehensive, far-reaching import stop are higher than the sum of the effects of the single product import stops. This finding indicates that the implication of imposing or lifting a trade restriction for a specific product can differ depending on which trade restrictions are in place for other products. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333448&r=agr |
| By: | Muhammad Ayaz (University of Balochistan, TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Mazhar Mughal (Centre de recherche de l'ESC Pau - ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) |
| Abstract: | Measuring the precise nature and causes of land inequality is critical for addressing and implementing policy initiatives related to agricultural productivity, rural development and within-country income distribution. In this study, we argue that measuring land inequality solely among land owners does not provide a complete picture of land allocation among agricultural actors. We analyze land inequality (with or without the inclusion of landless peasants) as well as landlessness to present a holistic picture of land inequality across all districts of Pakistan. We employ data on 152, 582 farm households from two rounds of the district-representative Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement Survey to construct Gini and Mean Logarithmic Deviation (MLD) indicators of land inequality and decompose it into within- and between-district inequalities. We found that inequalities measured without including landless peasants portray different picture of land disparities than that based on measures of inequality including landless workers. Our main findings are four-fold: 1) Land inequality measured including landless peasants is much higher (Gini = 0.84) than than that without them (Gini = 0.67), and has increased much more between 2007 and 2015 when landless peasants are included (6%) than when measured without them (1%). 2) In 22% of the districts, land inequality without landless peasants decreased between 2007 and 2015 while that measured without them increased. The opposite is true in 5% of the districts. 3) Land inequality without landless workers is higher in irrigated and humid regions with better soil quality and rough terrain while inequality with landless workers is higher in more arid and semi-arid districts. Districts with rough topography face less landlessness in the presence of predominantly-small holder farms, whereas more fertile soil is associated with higher landlessness. 4) Districts based on Pashtun tribal ancestral land distribution rights have the lowest rates of landlessness (20%) while districts with pre-colonial Zamindari-based land distribution show the highest incidence of landlessness (66%). The findings highlight the need for robust tenancy reforms in districts with humid climate, higher land inequality and lower landlessness in order to provide land tenure security to landless tenants and protect them from force eviction by powerful landed elites. Use of information technology in registering land rights through geo-coordinates can be helpful in improving land security and the expansion of the agricultural land markets. Besides, there is a greater need of land redistribution in the southern and south-western districts where landlessness is high despite relatively low extent of land inequality. |
| Keywords: | Land inequality, landlessness, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2023–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04004784&r=agr |
| By: | Roger Martini |
| Abstract: | Regulations are an important part of the policy toolkit governments can use to address climate and environmental objectives in agriculture. This report reviews existing literature on the characteristics and assessment of environmental regulations in agriculture. It finds that direct evidence on the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of agri-environmental regulations is generally limited and situation-specific. However, a taxonomy that classifies and organises information on regulations can give a sense of their number, the environmental domains covered, and the scope and depth of their application. This is potentially useful with respect to measuring progress on international commitments for action on climate change mitigation and other analysis. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Climate change, Environment |
| JEL: | K23 Q18 Q28 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:194-en&r=agr |
| By: | Zanetti de Lima, Cicero; Martha, Geraldo; Barioni, Luis G.; Baldos, Uris Lantz; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Brazil has made significant investments in public agricultural research and development (R&D) over the past 50 years. This policy priority has allowed the country to achieve high levels of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, especially in the past two decades1, 2. These investments have benefitted consumers, both in Brazil and worldwide. Brazil had not fully recovered from a recent economic recession (mid-2014 to 2016) when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Before COVID-19 public agricultural R&D expenditures in Brazil had already declined compared to its 2000-2017 levels2. The fiscal deterioration in the wake of this pandemic could further jeopardize Brazil’s capacity to invest in agricultural R&D. This paper explores the potential consequences of such a slowdown in public agricultural R&D expenditures in Brazil, and hence on productivity growth rates, land use, agricultural output, yields, and food prices at both the national and global levels over the 2017–2050 horizon. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333395&r=agr |
| By: | Gabriela Demarchi (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Julie Subervie (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Thibault Catry (UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - UG - Université de Guyane - UA - Université des Antilles - UM - Université de Montpellier); Isabelle Tritsch (UPR Forêts et Sociétés - Forêts et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | Ensuring the perpetuity and improvement of REDD initiatives requires rigorous impact evaluation of their effectiveness in curbing deforestation. Today, a number of global and regional remote sensing (RS) products that detect changes in forest cover are publicly available. In this study, we assess the suitability of using these datasets to evaluate the impact of local REDD projects targeting smallholders in the Brazilian Amazonb] Firstly, we reconstruct the forest loss of 21, 492 farms located in the Transamazonian region for the period 2008 to 2018, using data from two RS products: Global Forest Change (GFC) and the Amazon Deforestation Monitoring Project (PRODES). Secondly, we evaluate the consistency between these two data sources and find that the deforestation estimates at the farm level vary considerably between datasets. Despite this difference, using microeconometric techniques that use pre-treatment outcomes to construct counter-factual patterns of REDD program participants, we estimate that about two hectares, or about four percent of the forest area, were saved on average on each of the 350 participating farms during the first years of the program, regardless of the data-source used. Moreover, we find that deforestation decreased on plots surrounding participating farms during the very first years of the program, suggesting that the program may have had a positive effect on neighboring farms as well. Finally, we show that participants returned to their business-as-usual pattern of clearing one to three hectares per year at the end of the program. The environmental gain generated by the program, however, was not offset by any catch-up behavior, as the two hectares saved on each farm before 2017 were not cleared in 2018. By calculating the monetary gain of the delayed carbon dioxide emissions, we find that the program's benefits were ultimately greater than its costs. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04037153&r=agr |
| By: | Lin, Biing-Hwan; Guthrie, Joanne; Smith, Travis |
| Abstract: | Food prepared away from home (FAFH) has become a mainstay in U.S. consumers’ diets, accounting for more than 50 percent of total food expenditures since 2009 and more than 30 percent of total food energy intake since 2011. This report analyzes data from nationally representative food consumption surveys conducted between 1977 and 2018 to examine U.S. consumers’ dietary quality relative to the Federal dietary guidance and how this varies by food source. The food sources this report examines include food at home, food purchased at restaurants, food purchased at fast-food establishments, food obtained at school among K–12 school and daycare children, and other food obtained away from home. Dietary quality is measured by nutrient and food-group density (i.e., intake amount per 1, 000 calories) for 12 nutrients and 35 food groups. All analyses are conducted for individuals aged 2 and above, both as a group and subdivided by demographics. In general, U.S. consumers make more nutritious choices when grocery shopping for foods than when obtaining food from commercial eating establishments. Compared with FAFH, food at home (FAH) is denser in underconsumed nutrients and food groups—e.g., fiber, iron, whole grains, fruits, dairy, and dark green vegetables—and lower in the density of over-consumed nutrients and food groups, including saturated fats, sodium, and refined grains. However, FAH has more added sugars in addition to a lower intake of seafood and most types of vegetables. In recent years, school foods have differed from other FAFH consumption due to a lower density of saturated fats and a higher density of whole grain, fiber, and fruit. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2023–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:333757&r=agr |
| By: | Claire Alestra; Gilbert Cette; Valérie Chouard; Rémy Lecat |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the COP21 goals of net zero CO2 emissions and global warming below 2°C at the end of the century. It uses the ACCL model, particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price shocks and technology improvements on CO2 emissions, temperature changes, climate damage and GDP. Our simulations show that without climate policies, i.e. a ‘business as usual’ scenario, the warming may be +4 to +5°C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. We also find that an acceleration in ‘usual technical progress’ - not targeted at reducing greenhouse gas intensity - makes global warming and climate damage worse than the ‘business as usual’ scenario. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without technological changes to avoid CO2 emissions. To hit such climatic targets, intervening only through the relative price of different energy types, e.g. via a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multi-lever climate strategy, associating diverse price and technology measures. This mix combines energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of non-carbon-emitting electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of our four polluting energy sources (corresponding to a relatively low but achievable carbon tax scenario). None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals. |
| Keywords: | : Climate, Global Warming, Technology, Environmental Policy, Growth, Long-Term Projections, Uncertainties, Renewable Energy |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 E23 E37 O11 O47 O57 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:909&r=agr |
| By: | Golub, Alla; Haqiqi, Iman; Karami, Omid; Sajedinia, Ehsanreza; Taheripour, Farzad |
| Abstract: | Transboundary water resources are crucial in ensuring people have an adequate water supply. These shared resources need to be managed in a sustainable, equitable, and collaborative manner. The focus of this study is on Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, where the situation is particularly difficult due to climate change, weak cooperation among riparian countries, intensive hydropower development, inefficient agricultural practices, and political instability. This study evaluates the economic outcomes of transboundary water allocation scenarios under alternative climate futures and considers cooperation plans that can be implemented to reduce controversies over water allocation in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin. In addition to the contribution to resource policy literature, this study offers a unique coupling of a complex economic model with a hydrological model. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333500&r=agr |
| By: | Ray, Srabashi; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Labor is a critical, but often overlooked, input in agriculture. In this paper we develop a theoretical model to demonstrate how agricultural labor market functioning plays a significant role in determining the impact and distributional consequences of conservation policies. We next propose a novel approach to use the theoretical model to explain the impacts of a groundwater conservation policy from a spatially explicit quantitative model comprising 75, 000+ grids within the US. Building on existing literature of gridded agricultural production (Baldos et al. 2020) and local labor markets using Commuting Zones (Fowler, Rhubart, and Jensen 2016b) we develop the SIMPLE-G-CZ model of agricultural production and labor markets. We find that labor market rigidities dampen the effectiveness of conservation policies. Limited labor mobility also results in the conservation policy’s incidence being borne in greater proportion by farm workers, with these impacts varying widely across local labor markets. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333401&r=agr |
| By: | Boimah, Mavis; Weible, Daniela |
| Abstract: | The growing exports of European dairy products to West Africa is raising concerns globally with regards to its role in the retarded growth of the dairy sectors in recipient nations. Focusing on consumers, this study examines the influence of product origin on consumer behavior in Ghana and Senegal, two developing countries with high patterns of dairy imports mainly from Europe. A total of 312 and 532 households were sampled for the study in Ghana and Senegal respectively. In the analysis, we used descriptive statistics, Principal Component Analysis, and a logit model. The results show that socio-demographic characteristics, especially age, household size, education and income play crucial roles in the consumption of local, domestic and imported dairy products. Moreover, product origin influence consumer perceptions, and hence preferences. Consumers generally reveal a positive attitude towards local dairy products in both countries. However, final purchase decisions as the study show are to a large extent influenced by product price and availability, encouraging the consumption of imported and domestic products. Milk powder and its domestically processed products obviously play a crucial role in ensuring a reliable access to affordable dairy products in developing countries, and in this facet, their imports are encouraged. However, hygienic handling and processing of local milk in addition to good packaging and labelling are essential. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333409&r=agr |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Climate change presents a major social, economic and political challenge for the Slovak Republic. The majority of municipal administrations are unaware of the potential climate risks they face today and in the coming years. Identifying risks posed by climate change and its inevitable impacts is an essential part of developing adaptation policies. While national adaptation policies have historically been formulated in an ad hoc manner, an evidence-based approach that relies on data is increasingly informing policy decisions. This paper provides an overview of the country’s adaptation policy context and presents a methodology – and the results of its application – for measuring climate change risks with respect to heat, drought and extreme precipitation. The results aim to inform future budget allocation decisions for climate change adaptation. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation, climate hazards, data envelopment analysis |
| JEL: | C60 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaac:35-en&r=agr |
| By: | Taheripour, Farzad; Hoyoung, Kwon; Mueller, Steffen; Emery, Isaac; Karami, Omid; Sajedinia, Ehsanreza |
| Abstract: | No major effort has been made to assess uncertainties in land use emissions values of biofuels due to changes in emissions factors. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap with two different but related research activities. The first research activity studies the available sources of information on vegetation and soil carbon data sets that have been used in developing land use emissions factors to understand their similarities and differences across various land types and ecological conditions. The second research activity mixes the estimated land use changes obtained from an advanced version of the GTAP-BIO model for a wide range of biofuel pathways with various sets of emissions factors obtained from different vegetation and soil carbon data sources (examined in the first research activity) to examine the sensitivity of the ILUC emissions values for the examined pathways with respect to the changes in emissions factors. These research activities make significant contributions to the existing debates on uncertainties in ILUC emissions values. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333402&r=agr |
| By: | Domenico Dentoni (Labex Entreprendre - UM - Université de Montpellier, Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Carlo Cucchi; Marija Roglić (Labex Entreprendre - UM - Université de Montpellier, Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Rob Lubberink; Rahmin Bender; Timothy Manyise |
| Abstract: | Societal actors across scales and geographies increasingly demand visual applications of systems thinkingthe process of understanding and changing the reality of a system by considering its whole set of interdependenciesto address wicked problems affecting food and agriculture. Yet, despite the wide offer of systems mapping tools, there is still little guidance for managers, policy-makers, civil society and changemakers in food and agriculture on how to choose, combine and use these tools on the basis of a sufficiently deep understanding of socio-ecological systems. Unfortunately, actors seeking to address wicked problems with inadequate understandings of systems often have limited influence on the socio-ecological systems they inhabit, and sometimes even generate unintended negative consequences. Hence, we first review, discuss and exemplify seven key features of systems that should bebut rarely have beenincorporated in strategic decisions in the agri-food sector: interdependency, levelmultiplicity, dynamism, path dependency, self-organization, non-linearity and complex causality. Second, on the basis of these features, we propose a collective process to systems mapping that grounds on the notion that the configuration of problems (i.e., how multiple issues entangle with each other) and the configuration of actors (i.e., how multiple actors relate to each other and share resources) represent two sides of the same coin. Third, we provide implications for societal actors-including decision-makers, trainers and facilitators-using systems mapping to trigger or accelerate systems change in five purposive ways: targeting multiple goals; generating ripple effects; mitigating unintended consequences; tackling systemic constraints, and collaborating with unconventional partners. |
| Keywords: | Systems thinking Causal loop diagrams value network analysis wicked problems agri-food systems socio-ecological systems, Systems thinking, Causal loop diagrams, value network analysis, wicked problems, agri-food systems, socio-ecological systems |
| Date: | 2023–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04002011&r=agr |
| By: | Wei, Taoyuan; Glomsrød, Solveig; Asbjørn, Aaheim; Ma, Lin |
| Abstract: | The Model for Global Responses to Anthropogenic Changes in the Environment (GRACE) was developed for economic analysis of climate change issues including mitigation, impacts, and adaptation. Since 2005, GRACE has been updated in line with the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. So far, Norway has not been a specific region in GRACE. To include Norway in a new version of GRACE, we need a GTAP database that ensures consistency with the official national accounting data of Norway. This study describes how we adjust the GTAP v. 10 data to achieve this consistency. For this purpose, we apply the official input-output (IO) table of Norway for the year 2014 and the annually updated Table 11123 of the National accounts to adjust macroeconomic data of the original GTAP database for components of GDP like production, income, and expenditure. The balance between supply and demand of products is finally taken care of by introducing an additional parameter in the adjusted GTAP data as “changes in inventory” for all regions. The official energy accounts and CO2 emissions data of Norway are used to replace the corresponding data of Norway in the GTAP database. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333436&r=agr |
| By: | Guenwoo Lee; Ayu Pratiwi; Farikhah; Aya Suzuki; Takashi Kurosaki |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset of 1, 574 shrimp farmers, this study investigates whether online communities of practice can replace or compensate for traditional agricultural extension services. This study reveals that the correlation between the use of the community and conventional extension services, such as neighboring farmers, family members, and extension workers, is not statistically significant in the full sample. However, on excluding the non-community members, the results indicate that those who obtain information from their neighbors or extension workers are more likely to use the community. Regarding the reliability of the community, those who obtain information from their neighboring farmers or family members are less likely to choose the community as their most reliable source of information. This is consistent with the results obtained after excluding non-community members. Furthermore, we found a negative and statistically significant correlation between the frequency of information sharing and inquiries and information sources such as neighboring farmers and family members, and no association between increased time spent at home due to the COVID-19 pandemic and increased use of the community. The results suggest that online communities of practice may not yet have penetrated farmers in Indonesia and act as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, conventional extension services. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e183&r=agr |
| By: | Sands, Ronald; Beach, Robert |
| Abstract: | Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have proven useful for simulating future economic activity and environmental indicators, especially in response to global drivers such as population, income, technology, and dietary preference. The focus of this paper is to show how output from CGE models can also be converted to nutritional indicators such as calories, carbohydrates, protein, fats, and micro-nutrients. This paper covers post-simulation analysis of food demand, rather than how to specify food demand within a general equilibrium model. There are strong links between the specification of food demand in a model, and how that is calibrated, to the realism possible for reporting calories and other nutritional indicators. It turns out that modification to the underlying social accounting matrix (SAM) can improve the realism of projections of food demand, by increasing the consistency between monetary units in the SAM and physical units (metric tons) in food balance sheets such as those published by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. If model output by food commodity can be expressed by weight (e.g., consumption in terms of grams per person per day), then food conversion tables can be applied to obtain a comprehensive list of nutrient consumption, including macro- and micro-nutrients. This information can be summarized in a variety of nutritional indicators. We cover two key steps: (1) pre-processing of the SAM and food balance sheets; and (2) post-processing of CGE model output. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333467&r=agr |
| By: | Adrien Hervouet; Stéphane Lemarié |
| Abstract: | In the seed sector, for some self-pollinated varieties such as wheat, innovative breeders compete directly with self-producing farmers for commercializing their new seed varieties. The use of farm-saved seed (FSS) can reduce breeders’ incentive to innovate. Several countries have established different royalty systems for both certified seed and FSS to reduce such inefficiencies. In this article, we develop a theoretical model to compare these different systems. More precisely, we compare six different systems by analyzing their impact on the incentive to innovate, as well as production efficiencies at both the seed and agricultural production levels. We show that royalty systems leading to a certain proportion of FSS are welfare improving. The systems leading the highest total welfare levels are those in which the royalty level on FSS is regulated, i.e., either defined directly by the regulator (French or UK systems) or imposed at the same level of certified seed (Australian system). When all economic effects are taken into account, the Australian system performs better with high research costs. Conversely, with low research costs, the best system is either the French or the UK system, depending on the relative cost of producing FSS vs. certified seed. |
| Keywords: | Farm-Saved Seeds, Intellectual Property Rights, Plant Breeders' Rights, Royalty Rates |
| JEL: | L13 O34 O38 Q16 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2023-03&r=agr |
| By: | Diane Kapgen; Laurence Roudart |
| Date: | 2022–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/345825&r=agr |
| By: | Ngavozafy, Antonia; Suarez-Cuesta, David; Latorre, María C. |
| Abstract: | On 15 July 2021, the European Commission made publicly available the tariff elimination schedules of the Association Agreement between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur countries, a mega-regional trade agreement that were concluded on 28 June 2019. Tariff reductions under the EU-Mercosur AA often take the form of linear cuts where both Parties will eliminate or reduce base rates in equal stages from the date of entry into force until the final years of implementation. Tariff-rate quotas (TRQ), either reciprocal or transitional, and specific treatments for some sensitive agri-food products are exceptions to these staging. Although they concern relatively smaller number of national tariff line, liberalization through TRQ is a key element of the EU-Mercosur AA. To evaluate the impacts of the EU-Mercosur AA, we use a standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 8 regions and 36 sectors aggregated from the GTAP10 sectoral and regional classifications, which incorporate tariff-rate quotas. We expect a trade creation effect between the EU and Mercosur countries, which will be associated with welfare gains in both sides. The agreement will also have significant impacts on third parties: suppliers of agricultural commodities on the EU market and suppliers of manufactured products on the Mercosur markets will suffer from trade diversion. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333466&r=agr |
| By: | Bentley, Alison |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2022–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp22:333327&r=agr |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Dairy products benefit from sustained international demand (+1.8% per year) due to population growth and the gradual modification of diets. This demand dynamic is taking place in a production context that is becoming more delicate due to the impact of global warming on fodder production, soaring raw material prices, the negative environmental impact of dairy production in several geographical areas and, at least in some countries, the difficulty of ensuring the generational renewal of farmers. International prices for dairy products have become highly volatile. After an analysis of the main trends at work, on a global scale, between the supply and demand of dairy products, this communication deals more with the evolution of world trade in dairy products. To do this, it relies on the processing of customs data, both on an international scale (via the BACI database) and at the more restricted level of the European Union (via the Comext database). Mainly dominated by three major zones (the European Union, New Zealand and the United States), world exports of dairy products practically tripled (in current currency) between 2000 and 2020 to reach almost 60 billion euros (excluding intra-European Union trade). The rise of China in world dairy imports, the recent levelling off of New Zealand's exports and the strong diversification of the types of dairy products exported are three significant phenomena of the last decade. The European Union has consolidated its leading position in world dairy exports, accounting for 38% of world trade by value. This communication also focuses on the evolution of trade in dairy products between the Member States of the European Union and the African continent, while identifying the particular case of Tunisia. |
| Abstract: | Les produits laitiers bénéficient à l'échelle internationale d'une demande soutenue (+1, 8% par an) en raison de l'essor démographique et de la modification progressive des régimes alimentaires. Cette dynamique de la demande intervient dans un contexte productif qui devient plus délicat en raison de l'impact du réchauffement climatique sur les productions fourragères, de la flambée du prix des matières premières, des impacts environnementaux négatifs de la production laitière dans plusieurs zones géographiques et, du moins dans certains pays, de la difficulté à assurer le renouvellement générationnel des éleveurs. Les prix internationaux de produits laitiers sont devenus fortement volatils. Après une analyse des principales grandes tendances à l'œuvre, à l'échelle mondiale, entre l'offre et la demande de produits laitiers, cette communication traite plus de la dynamique des échanges mondiaux de produits laitiers. Pour ce faire, elle s'appuie sur un traitement des données des douanes, tant à l'échelle internationale (via la base de données BACI) qu'au niveau plus restreint de l'Union européenne (via la base de données Comext). Dominées pour l'essentiel par trois grandes zones (l'Union européenne, la Nouvelle-Zélande et les Etats-Unis), les exportations mondiales de produits laitiers ont pratiquement triplé (en monnaie courante) entre 2000 et 2020 pour atteindre près de 60 milliards d'euros (hors commerce intra-Union européenne). La montée en puissance de la Chine dans les importations mondiales de produits laitiers, le plafonnement récent des exportations de la Nouvelle-Zélande et la forte diversification des types de produits laitiers exportés constituent trois phénomènes marquants de la dernière décennie écoulée. L'Union européenne conforte sa position de leader dans les exportations mondiales de produits laitiers, en représentant 38% des échanges mondiaux exprimés en valeur. Dans cette communication, une focalisation est également faite sur l'évolution des échanges de produits laitiers entre les Etats membres de l'Union européenne et le continent africain, ce tout en identifiant le cas particulier de la Tunisie. |
| Keywords: | Dairy markets, Dairy products, International trade, Competitiveness, Prices, European Union, Africa, Tunisia, Marchés laitiers, Produits laitiers, Echanges internationaux, Compétitivité, Prix, Union européenne, Afrique, Tunisie |
| Date: | 2023–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04038123&r=agr |
| By: | Food Security Information Network (FSIN) |
| Abstract: | By mid-2022, the magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity in countries with available data reached alarming levels, but data gaps continued to obscure the full picture. In 2021, the population in the three highest phases of acute food insecurity was the largest in the six-year history of the GRFC. By September 2022, these numbers increased again to 201.4– 205.1 million people, making 2022 the fourth consecutive year of rising levels of acute hunger. The number of acutely food-insecure people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent is actually higher than this estimate, but data gaps continue to limit reporting of timely, comparable and consensual data. Data was missing for 2022 in eight countries/territories, including Bangladesh (Cox’s Bazar), Palestine and the Syrian Arab Republic. Were the 2021 figures for these eight countries/territories included, 17.3 million people would be added to the total number in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or equivalent. |
| Keywords: | food insecurity, food crises, nutrition, malnutrition, resilience, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, hunger, weather extremes, economic shocks |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:issbrf:136365&r=agr |
| By: | Khumbuzile C. Mosoma (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Heinrich R. Bohlmann (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we measure the total factor productivity (TFP) in the South African agricultural sector using annual time series data from 1980 to 2019. First, a Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated recursively to determine the time-varying factor contributions of labour, capital and land to agricultural output. Second, a growth accounting framework is used to measure TFP growth, which is then converted to a measure for TFP. The results show that TFP growth recorded an average growth of 2.2 percent between 1980 and 1989, followed by a decline to 0.04 percent between 1990 and 1999, a period characterised by major policy reforms and economic structural changes in the agricultural sector, such as the removal of agricultural subsidies and the introduction of competition with the deregulation of markets in 1996. A recovery in TFP with a growth rate of 2.3 percent was recorded between 2000 and 2009, attributed to the precipitation of new technology and skills improvement underpinned by export growth fuelled by foreign-demand induced agricultural production growth in industries like fruits, wine, cotton and grains. The TFP growth was slow between 2010 and 2019 compared to the previous period, attributed to stagnation in policy reforms and rising incidence of drought, labour challenges and increasing cost of production. The study recommends a carefully designed policy mix of land and water reform, complemented by a comprehensive farmer support programme that addresses skills, markets, drought-resistant varieties and affordable production loans to enhance TFP. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity, growth accounting framework, South African agriculture |
| JEL: | Q10 D24 C51 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202306&r=agr |
| By: | Ricardo Dahis; Ivan de las Heras; Santiago Saavedra |
| Abstract: | Policies often have costs today but benefits far into the future, especially climate change and environmental policies. A critical dimension in this trade-off is politicians’ age, which impacts their life expectancy, career concerns, and what education they receive. We study this trade-off in the case of Brazilian mayors and environmental outcomes, using close elections. We find that when a young politician is elected, there is a reduction in deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions without significant effects on municipal GDP. Our study of mechanisms suggests young mayors matter because they belong to a new cohort, not because of age per se. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Age |
| JEL: | P18 Q23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:020694&r=agr |
| By: | Kate Schneider (Johns Hopkins University); Jessica Fanzo (Johns Hopkins University); Lawrence Haddad (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Mario Herrero (Cornell University); Jose Rosero Moncayo (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Anna Herforth (Harvard University); Roseline Reman (Alliance of CIAT-Bioversity); Alejandro Guarin (International Institute for Environment & Development); Danielle Resnick (Brookings Institution); Namukolo Covic (International Livestock Research Institute); Christophe B\'en\'e (Alliance of CIAT-Bioversity; Wageningen Economic Research Group); Andrea Cattaneo (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Nancy Aburto (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Ramya Ambikapathi (Cornell University); Destan Aytekin (Johns Hopkins University); Simon Barquera (Instituto Nacional de Salud P\'ublica); Jane Battersby-Lennard (University of Cape Town); Ty Beal (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Paulina Bizzoto Molina (European Centre for Development Policy Management); Carlo Cafiero (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Christine Campeau (CARE); Patrick Caron (University of Montpellier, Cirad, ART-DEV); Piero Conforti (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Kerstin Damerau (Cornell University); Michael DiGirolamo (Johns Hopkins University); Fabrice DeClerck (EAT Forum); Deviana Dewi (Johns Hopkins University); Ismahane Elouafi (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Carola Fabi (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Pat Foley (United Nations World Food Programme); Ty Frazier (Oakridge National Laboratory); Jessica Gephart (American University); Christopher Golden (Harvard University); Carlos Gonzalez Fischer (Cornell University); Sheryl Hendriks (University of Greenwich); Maddalena Honorati (World Bank); Jikun Huang (Peking University); Gina Kennedy (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Amos Laar (University of Ghana); Rattan Lal (Ohio State University); Preetmoninder Lidder (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Brent Loken (World Wildlife Fund); Quinn Marshall (International Food Policy Research Institute); Yuta Masuda (Vulcan); Rebecca McLaren (Johns Hopkins University); Lais Miachon (Johns Hopkins University); Hern\'an Mu\~noz (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Stella Nordhagen (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Naina Qayyum (Tufts University); Michaela Saisana (Joint Research Centre); Diana Suhardiman (KIT Royal Tropical Institute); Rashid Sumaila (University of British Columbia); Maximo Torrero Cullen (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Francesco Tubiello (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Jose-Luis Vivero-Pol (United Nations World Food Programme); Patrick Webb (Tufts University); Keith Wiebe (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Transforming food systems is essential to bring about a healthier, equitable, sustainable, and resilient future, including achieving global development and sustainability goals. To date, no comprehensive framework exists to track food systems transformation and their contributions to global goals. In 2021, the Food Systems Countdown to 2030 Initiative (FSCI) articulated an architecture to monitor food systems across five themes: 1 diets, nutrition, and health; 2 environment, natural resources, and production; 3 livelihoods, poverty, and equity; 4 governance; and 5 resilience and sustainability. Each theme comprises three-to-five indicator domains. This paper builds on that architecture, presenting the inclusive, consultative process used to select indicators and an application of the indicator framework using the latest available data, constructing the first global food systems baseline to track transformation. While data are available to cover most themes and domains, critical indicator gaps exist such as off-farm livelihoods, food loss and waste, and governance. Baseline results demonstrate every region or country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are optimal across all domains, and some indicators are independent of national income. These results underscore the need for dedicated monitoring and transformation agendas specific to food systems. Tracking these indicators to 2030 and beyond will allow for data-driven food systems governance at all scales and increase accountability for urgently needed progress toward achieving global goals. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.13669&r=agr |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym; Maliszewska, Maryla; Rodarte, Israel Osorio; Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | Climate change and the respective policies for carbon emission reductions will test the resilience of global value chains and shape them. Shocks in production and trade can be transmitted from one country to another by global value chains, although they can also help to lessen the blow of a domestic shock. This paper explores simulations from the ENVISAGE global computable general equilibrium model to enhance understanding of the potential longer-term impacts of environmental policies. It evaluates the key factors shaping the global economy with stylized scenarios that capture the essential elements of policies to achieve carbon emission reductions that will have an impact on trade. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333405&r=agr |
| By: | Fournier Gabela, Julio G.; Freund, Florian |
| Abstract: | Achieving climate targets requires more stringent mitigation policies, including the participation of economic sectors beyond energy-intensive industries. However, what this implies for carbon leakage risks remains largely an open question. This paper aims to fill this gap by assessing potential carbon leakage risk for all sectors under varying climate policy scopes covering GHG emissions along global supply chains. To measure this risk, we use the emission-intensity and trade-exposure metric and emission data including CO2 and non-CO2 gasses. Under a uniform carbon price and assuming full carbon cost pass-through, we find that carbon leakage risk in downstream sectors can be as high as in sectors whose direct GHG emissions are subject to carbon pricing. We also find that agri-food and transport sectors have, on average, a higher potential risk than energy-intensive industries. Our results highlight the importance of developing sound anti-leakage mechanisms tailored to each sector’s characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333468&r=agr |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer |
| Abstract: | We study the role of proximity to historical ethnic borders in determining individual land ownership in Sub-Saharan Africa. Following an instrumental variable strategy, we document that individuals have a lower likelihood of owning land near historical ethnic borders. In particular, the likelihood of owning land decreases by 15 percentage points, i.e., about 1/3 of the mean rate of landownership, for rural migrants who move from 57km (90th percentile) to 2 km (10th percentile) from the border. This result aligns with the view that competition for land is stronger and property rights are weaker close to historical ethnic borders in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Land ownership, Borders, Property Rights, Historical Homelands, Development, Africa, Voronoi Tessellation, Thiessen Tessellation |
| JEL: | D74 N57 O13 O17 O43 P48 Q15 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1261&r=agr |
| By: | Zijin Xie (Faculity of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigated how bans/restrictions on trophy hunting affect wildlife conservation in private land conservation areas (PLCAs). We developed a bioeconomic model to examine wildlife and land utilization in a fixed-size PLCA with a land manager. We calibrated the model for the lion-hunting industry in PLCAs in South Africa. The model simulates the impact of trophy-hunting restrictions on the lion population under different management scenarios. We demonstrated that restrictions on trophy hunting would be effective if wildlife-based tourism is an alternative land use to trophy hunting. However, the restrictions on trophy hunting will negatively affect the wildlife (lion) population if alternative land use is not wildlife-based. Although wildlife-based tourism is considered a positive alternative to trophy hunting, it is more vulnerable to external shocks than trophy hunting. Our results suggest that international bans/restrictions on trophy hunting should be cautiously imposed, particularly in the context of the global pandemic, which has had a devastating effect on wildlife-based tourism. |
| Keywords: | Bioeconomic modeling, Lion hunting; PLCA, Tourism, Trophy hunting, Wildlife conservation |
| JEL: | Q57 Q2 Q26 |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2023-007&r=agr |
| By: | Rudik, Ivan; Lyn, Gary; Tan, Weiliang; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic-spatial equilibrium model to quantify the economic effects of climate change with a focus on the United States. We find that climate change reduces US welfare by 4% and global welfare by over 20%. Market-based adaptation through trade and labor reallocation increases US welfare, but with substantial spatial heterogeneity. Adaptation through labor reallocation and trade are complementary: together they boost welfare by 50% more than their individual effects. We additionally develop a new dynamic envelope theorem method for measuring welfare impacts in reduced form and to validate our quantitative model. We find that welfare distributions from our two approaches are consistent, indicating that our quantitative model captures the first-order factors for measuring the distributional impacts of climate change. The level and distribution of the economic impacts of climate change depends the sectoral and spatial structure of the economy, and the extent to which different markets can adapt. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333486&r=agr |
| By: | Sass, Karina Simone (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Haddad, Eduardo Amaral (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario (Sao Carlos School of Engineering, University of Sao Paulo) |
| Abstract: | Droughts can lead to severe socioeconomic impacts on cities by affecting industrial production, food and energy price, and income. Given that the frequency and intensity of this climatic event are increasing because of climate change, assessing the vulnerability of economic activities to drought is essential to develop adaptation strategies. This study explores the economic effects of droughts on the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), a region with a high concentration of people and economic activities and frequently hit by droughts. Our method comprises an integrated system of analysis that puts together climatic and economic databases. The integrated modeling system is divided into three steps: i) calculate a variable to represent drought conditions; ii) estimate the direct impact of droughts on sectoral activities through an econometric model; and iii) estimate the total impact on the economy through a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model calibrated with municipal data. The econometric model results showed that energy and water-intensive industries are more sensitive to droughts in the SPMA. The results from the simulations in the SCGE model showed that the impact on these sectors could spread to the entire economy, indirectly affecting activities such as land transport, construction, and personal services and decreasing the total production and disposable income of metropolitan municipalities. |
| Keywords: | local droughts impact; industrial activity; regional analysis; integrated modeling |
| JEL: | C68 R10 |
| Date: | 2023–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2023_004&r=agr |
| By: | Khumbuzile C. Mosoma (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Heinrich R. Bohlmann (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Sifiso M. Ntombela (National Agricultural Marketing Council); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Although South Africa has implemented several land reform policies and farmer development support programmes, little progress has been achieved in bridging the inequality gap between mainly black emerging and mainly white established farmers. This study seeks to quantify the effects of land reform policy in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulates two policy scenarios. The first policy scenario assumes that the current land reform approach will continue where government transfers land, but without transitional farmer support to improve the productivity of new farmers. The second policy scenario assumes that the state will additionally allocate transitional farmer support to new farmers, including those operating on land-reform farms and in the former homeland areas. The results reveal that the effects of land reform policy are minimal but positive at the aggregate economic level across the two scenarios. Achieving a land reform target of 30 percent will benefit the real GDP by R242.4 million under scenario 1 and R608.6 million under scenario 2 by the end of the simulation period. There is also a positive effect on selected macroeconomic indicators such as imports, employment, and investment, notably when comprehensive support services are provided. Primary industries like field crops, horticulture, and livestock experience significant output gains. Similar to industrial output, exports for the primary agricultural industries are impacted positively in the long term as new land is made available, making more output available for the export market. Although the implementation of land reform might be a costly exercise initially, it can be achieved at a lower cost than what is assumed or expected. Simulation results suggest that land redistribution will not harm the economy if accompanied by comprehensive farmer support. The study recommends that the government and the private sector work together to create a just and inclusive agricultural landscape. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Land reform policy, Computable General Equilibrium modelling |
| JEL: | Q15 C68 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202307&r=agr |
| By: | Yoshinori Nakagawa; Keiichiro Kobayashi; Ken Jimbo; Kazuhito Yamashita; Akiko Yoshioka, Tatsuyoshi Saijo |
| Abstract: | Humanity is facing various challenges today, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the resulting energy and food security crises, the collapse of the global biogeochemical cycle systems including carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, and the biodiversity collapse. Faced with such urgent challenges to survival, it is only natural that we would attempt to solve them with immediate and effective responses. However, future generations who will live decades from now may not necessarily regard these solutions as the best choices. Such concerns become real when discussions about the future are stifled by short-term interests of individual nations, preventing consensus-building and the development of creative visions for the long-term future. Therefore, various methods have been developed to design a long-term future to ensure the protection of the interests of future generations, who do not have a voice to negotiate with the current generation. One of these methods, Future Design (FD)—which systematizes the way policy makers imagine policies from the perspective of the future—has been gaining attention in recent years. We (authors 2–5) conducted discussions to simulate the adoption of the FD approach during the G7 Hiroshima Summit in 2023 when the participating leaders will respond to the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To this end, we developed a concrete image of what the international community will look like in 2053, and then envisioned a path for the international community to realize cooperation among various seemingly unrelated issues that will become linked within a span of 30 years. Based on this experience, we have the following proposals for the Heads of State and Government participating in the 2023 G7 Hiroshima Summit. In particular, we would like to emphasize that Heads of State or Government should strive to establish an international governance system to provide global public goods. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:23-003e&r=agr |
| By: | Martin, Will; Ivanic, Maros; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | In recent years, policymakers have become more insistent in seeking advice on policies targeting multiple objectives in addition to the traditional economists’ concerns for economic efficiency and equity. Dealing with multiple goals in a serious manner is quite challenging given that it generally requires roughly as many instruments as goals, each instrument typically affects multiple goals, and the effects of instruments on goals are typically non-linear. Economists have adapted to the need to incorporate multiple goals using simple devices such as radar diagrams to highlight the local impacts of individual instruments on all goals. While useful in understanding these differential impacts, these approaches do not take us far in terms of designing policy packages needed to best achieve multiple goals. This paper proposes using programming approaches based on quantitative models to design policy packages for multiple goals. Two illustrative applications are provided—one to the setting of carbon tax rates for agricultural commodities and one to the allocation of R&D resources across agricultural activities in Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333461&r=agr |
| By: | CERMEÑO, Alexandra L.; SANTIAGO-Caballero, Carlos |
| Abstract: | According to the literature, transaction costs are influenced by several factors, ranging from institutional differences to asymmetric information. However, testing these hypotheses requires rich data not usually available in historical sources. In this study, we use a large-scale census of 1749 to analyze price gaps of wheat across rural municipalities and their local markets in Old Castile. For the first time in the literature, we examine price gaps across 5, 163 contiguous municipalities and assess transaction costs with unprecedented detail. By employing canonical variables and testing for spatial autocorrelation, we explore the determinants of transaction costs and contribute to the ongoing debates around the "Little Divergence." Our findings not only shed light on the factors that influence transaction costs but also represent a step forward in operationalizing them. Overall, this study offers new insights into the factors that shape transaction costs and contributes to the literature on the "Little Divergence." Our analysis demonstrates the importance of rich data in testing hypotheses related to transaction costs and highlights the benefits of using historical data to inform contemporary debates in economics. |
| Keywords: | Price gaps, transaction costs, spatial equilibrium model, autocorrelation |
| JEL: | F15 N73 N93 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2023-01&r=agr |
| By: | Arulampalam, Wiji (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Bhaskar, Anjor (Azim Premji University, Bangalore); Srivastava, Nisha (nstitute for Human Development, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | We examine the link between a mother’s autonomy - the freedom and ability to think, express, make decisions, and act, independently - and the nutritional status of her children. We design a novel statistical framework that accounts for the cultural and traditional environment to create a measure of maternal autonomy treating this as a latent characteristic that is fixed in the short term. Using data from India, we deal with two econometric challenges : (i) creation and measurement of the ‘autonomy’ index, and (ii) endogeneity caused by selection due to son preference. We find : (i) one standard deviation (SD) higher autonomy score is associated with a 0.16 SD higher Height-for-Age Z-scores (HAZ) ; and an (ii)10% lower prevalence of stunting (HAZ |
| Keywords: | Child Nutrition ; Latent Factor Models ; Maternal Autonomy ; Endogenous selection ; Son preference JEL codes: I15 ; I14 ; C38 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1455&r=agr |
| By: | Emilio Depetris-Chauvin (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Ömer Özak (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of proximity to historical ethnic borders in determining individual land ownership in Sub-Saharan Africa. Following an instrumental variable strategy, we document that individuals have a lower likelihood of owning land near historical ethnic borders. In particular, the likelihood of owning land decreases by 15 percentage points, i.e., about 1/3 of the mean rate of landownership, for rural migrants who move from 57km (90th percentile) to 2 km (10th percentile) from the border. This result aligns with the view that competition for land is stronger and property rights are weaker close to historical ethnic borders in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Borders, Conflict, Intra-State Conflict, Ethnic Borders, Non-Civil Conflict, Ethnic Conflict, Territory, Property Rights, Landownership, Population Pressure, Migration, Historical Homelands, Development, Africa, Economic Development, Economic Growth, Voronoi Diagram, Voronoi Tesselation, Thiessen Tesselation |
| JEL: | D74 N57 O13 O17 O43 P48 Q15 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smu:ecowpa:2304&r=agr |
| By: | Chen, Y.-H. Henry; Paltsev, Sergey; Gurgel, Angelo; Reilly, John; Morris, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been widely used in energy, land use, technology, and climate policy studies. Here we provide details of revisions that form the basis of EPPA7, the current version. Key updates include: 1) using the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-power) database as the core economic data for the world economy; 2) updating regional economic growth projections; 3) separating extant and vintage capital of the previously aggregated fossil generation; 4) using an innovative approach to calculate the costs of backstop (i.e., advanced) power generation options based on engineering data from the Energy Information Administration; 5) identifying base year biofuel output from existing sectors; and 6) re-parameterizing electric vehicles based on recent studies. Our simulations demonstrate that with widespread mitigation policies worldwide, regions relying heavily on fossil fuel imports benefit from lower global fossil fuel prices when their domestic emissions targets are lenient, but the benefits dissipate when deeper emissions cuts are imposed domestically. We also provide an illustration how the model output can be used to calculate the net present values of unrealized fossil fuel production and stranded assets from idling coal power generation under various policy scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333493&r=agr |
| By: | Przemyslaw Kowalski; Clarisse Legendre |
| Abstract: | The challenge of achieving net zero CO2 emissions will require a significant scaling up of production and international trade of several raw materials which are critical for transforming the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels to one led by renewable energy technologies. This report provides a first joint assessment of data on production, international trade, and export restrictions on such critical raw materials from the OECD’s Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials covering the period 2009-2020. It presents data on production and trade concentrations, sheds early light on the impact of export restrictions, and discusses possible directions of further work in this area. The evidence presented suggests that export restrictions may be playing a non-trivial role in international markets for critical raw materials, affecting availability and prices of these materials. OECD countries have been increasingly exposed to the use of export restrictions for critical raw materials. |
| Keywords: | Export taxes, Global value chains, GVCs, International supply chains, Licensing requirements, OECD’s Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F18 |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:269-en&r=agr |