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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2023‒03‒13
25 papers chosen by |
| By: | Mintewab Bezabih (Environment and Climate Research Center, Policy Studies Institut); Finn Tarp (University of Copenhagen); Hailemariam Teklewold (Environment and Climate Research Center, Policy Studies Institute); Alemu Mekonnen (Department of Economics, Addis Ababa University); Tagel G/Hiwot (Environment and Climate Research Center, Policy Studies Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of how the choice of seed technology impacts farm productivity and management in a setting characterized by high risks. The findings reveal that risk aversion and climate are important driving forces for crop technology choice. Risk averse farmers can hedge against the risks they face by skewing their choices towards traditional varieties. A comparison of the relative importance of traditional versus improved varieties shows that the latter lead to gains in crop income. We also found notable differences from adopting a singular versus a combination of the varieties, with the combination having lower impact on income, compared to improved-varieties-only and higher income compared to traditional-varieties only. The exact opposite holds for the impact of alternative varieties on the cost of risk. The implication is that the risk prone nature of Ethiopian agriculture leads to marked tradeoffs in terms of productivity and risk between the two sets of varieties. |
| Keywords: | traditional and improved varieties, crop revenue, risk premium, multinomial switching regression, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | Q16 Q57 C22 |
| Date: | 2023–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuderg:2321&r=agr |
| By: | Pauline Castaing (World Bank Group); Antoine Leblois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | The Great Green Wall is a crosscountry initiative to improve the environment of desertification areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper refers to the implementation of Great Green Wall projects in Nigeria to document the local impact of environmental restoration on children's food security and health. Our identification strategy uses two types of variation to capture these effects. The spatial variation comes from the heterogeneous exposure of the children to these new environmental restoration programs. The temporal variation comes from sudden changes between 2013 and 2016. Taking the height-to-age z-score as main outcome of interest, we find a significant and robust health improvement for children living next to community-based orchards whereas proximity to shelterbelts generates mixed impacts. Gains in health (+0.5 standard deviation in the height index) coexist with higher dietary diversity score for children living near orchards. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Restoration, Food security, Nigeria, Nutrition, Impact evaluation |
| Date: | 2023–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03958274&r=agr |
| By: | François Bareille (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julien Wolfersberger (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matteo Zavalloni (Università degli Studi di Urbino 'Carlo Bo') |
| Abstract: | We study the link between institutions and the establishment of protected areas for natural resources conservation. Using difference-in-differences we estimate the impacts of democratization on the share of countries' area under protected areas in a panel of 144 countries over 1992-2018. We find that countries that democratized devote higher shares of their land to protected areas, but only in the medium- and long-run. Our preferred estimates indicate that, fifteen years after democratization, the share of the countries' area under PAs increases on average by one percentage point more than what would have been implemented without democratization. We also find evidence that democratization leads countries to implement the different types of protected areas in a non-homogeneous way. Our results are robust to several estimators and treatment definitions, confirming the critical role of institutions for natural resources conservation. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity, Democracy, Difference-in-differences, Natural parks, Natural reserves |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03920138&r=agr |
| By: | Annelies Deuss; Edith Laget |
| Abstract: | Approval procedures are critical to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) systems as they uphold countries’ commitments to facilitate safe trade. However, they can create significant costs and act as non-tariff barriers if not properly administered. This report examines the costs and opportunities that are associated with seven of the most pressing issues related to the administration of approval procedures. The analysis reveals that countries have increasingly raised specific trade concerns (STCs) to the WTO about issues related to approval procedures. Furthermore, gravity analysis demonstrates that trading partners dealing with STCs related to approval procedures trade 26% less on average than those not dealing with any STC. An OECD survey specifically designed to evaluate how issues related to approval procedures can be addressed indicates that multiple solutions exist to enhance efficiencies in agro-food trade, such as digitalizing SPS systems, relying on international standards or simplifying SPS measures. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture and food standards, Digitalisation, Gravity estimation, Non-tariff barriers, Safe trade, Specific Trade Concerns (STCs) |
| JEL: | F13 F53 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:192-en&r=agr |
| By: | François Cassiere (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Virginie Noireaux (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | The role tensions at work of farmers are a very current subject that is still not very much dealt with in a context where the suffering of farmers is more than ever being questioned. The challenges of the ecological transition, the transformation of consumption patterns, the role of industrialization of production processes and the evolution of the structure of agricultural sectors (with the weight of distributors) lead to questioning the roles of farmers in the agricultural ecosystem and in particular those of small farmers. To ensure the survival of their activity, farmers are forced to take on new roles, particularly commercial ones in terms of distribution of their production and sales. This generates constraints that are a major source of tension for them. They do not always have the necessary resources (knowledge, skills, time, etc.) to cope with these changes. We combine the grid of role tensions (Katz and Kahn, 1967) with that of Hobfol's resources (1998, 2001) in order to characterize the tensions that farmers experience in carrying out their activity in order to cope with the need to adapt. The case study of a mid-mountain territory based on the analysis of the discourse of 22 livestock and dairy farmers highlights important role tensions generating important and permanent discomfort and stress linked to the need to act to ensure the sustainability of the farms. Our results allow us to better understand the mobilised resources by these situations of tension and to provide elements for imagining mechanisms for supporting and reducing these tensions. Collective strategies are an option to explore |
| Abstract: | Les tensions de rôle au travail des agriculteurs constituent un sujet très actuel encore peu traité. La mutation des systèmes agricoles conduit les agriculteurs à endosser de nouveaux rôles en particulier en matière de distribution de leur production et génère des contraintes qui sont une source importante de tensions pour ces exploitants. Ceux-ci ne disposent pas toujours des ressources nécessaires (connaissances, compétences, temps, etc.) pour faire face à ces évolutions. En retenant la grille des tensions de rôles, nous caractérisons les tensions que connaissent les agriculteurs dans l'exercice de leur activité. L'étude du discours de 22 éleveurs et producteurs laitiers met en évidence, pour les deux filières, la présence de tensions de rôles et des questionnements autour du positionnement à adopter. Les tensions concernent les choix de mise en marché (canaux, vente), la manière d'atteindre les objectifs et sont fortement liées aux aspects économiques et à l'évaluation des résultats. Mots-clés : tensions de rôle, bien-être au travail, agriculture locale, canaux courts de distribution, stratégie collective. |
| Keywords: | role tensions workplace well-being local agriculture short distribution channels collective strategy, role tensions, workplace well-being, short distribution channels, collective strategy, local agriculture |
| Date: | 2022–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03958188&r=agr |
| By: | Iris van Dam (Sciensano [Bruxelles] - RIIP - Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur, ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Emilie Guillon (Alimentation & Santé - UniLaSalle); Ella Robinson (GLOBE - Global Obesity Centre - Institute for Health Transformation - School of Health and Social Development - Deakin University [Burwood]); Olivier Allais (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Gary Sacks (GLOBE - Global Obesity Centre - Institute for Health Transformation - School of Health and Social Development - Deakin University [Burwood]); Stefanie Vandevijvere (Sciensano [Bruxelles] - RIIP - Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur) |
| Abstract: | Objectives: Food companies could play an important role in improving population diets, but often escape accountability through unspecific commitments. This study evaluated nutrition-related commitments and estimated performance of the largest packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers, supermarkets and quick-service restaurants (QSR) in Europe. Methods: To quantitatively assess companies' publicly available commitments in 2020, the "Business Impact Assessment on Obesity and Population Nutrition" was applied. The proportion of sales from ultra-processed and "unhealthy" food categories (product categories not-permitted to be marketed to children) and over time changes in the number of QSR transactions and QSR and supermarket outlets were calculated. Results: Company commitments fell short of best practice recommendations (median overall score of 21%, range: 1%–62%). Food and beverage companies generated 82% (15%–100%) and 58% (1%–100%) sales from ultra-processed and "unhealthy" products, respectively. The number of QSR outlets and transactions substantially increased in Europe since 2011, while QSR commitments to improve population nutrition remained limited. Conclusion: Whilst most companies made some nutrition-related commitments, they did not comply with best practice recommendations. A large proportion of sales was generated from ultra-processed/unhealthy products and QSR outlets increased. Government regulations are urgently needed. |
| Keywords: | Europe, Food environments, Food industry, Food supply, Nutrient profile, Business impact assessment, Accountability |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03761087&r=agr |
| By: | Secor, William; Thapa, Tulsi; Wyche, David |
| Abstract: | Excerpts from the Preface: This publication compiles summaries of over 20 published, academic journal articles related to agricultural transportation research. The focus is on recent research, spanning roughly the last 6 years, from 2015 to 2020. The compendium’s primary goal is to spotlight the main findings and methods of recent peer-reviewed agricultural transportation research in an easy-to-read, accessible format. The Compendium sections are structured around specific modes of transportation, as follows: • Section I covers multimodal and supply chain research. • Section II summarizes inland (barge and lake) water transportation research. • Section III summarizes marine (ocean and port) water transportation research. • Section IV summarizes truck research. • Section V contains summaries of U.S.-focused rail research. • Section VI concludes the compendium with summaries of Canadian rail research. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uamsrr:330714&r=agr |
| By: | Tuki, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Although the incidence of conflicts between Fulani nomadic pastoralists and sedentary farmers in Nigeria have risen significantly during the last decade, no study has, to the best of my knowledge, examined how these conflicts influence distrust of members of the Fulani ethnic group and the larger Muslim population, nor the conditions under which these conflicts, which are primarily about competition over land and water resources, morph into religious conflicts. Using novel survey data collected from Kaduna, the state with the third highest incidence of pastoral conflicts in Nigeria, this study fills these gaps. The regression results show that exposure to pastoral conflicts cause distrust of members of the Fulani ethnic group and Muslims; although the size of the effect is much larger for the Fulani compared to Muslims. This shows that the population in Kaduna tend to conflate the Fulani with Muslims. Religious polarization was found to catalyze the process of resource conflicts turning religious. |
| Keywords: | Pastoral conflict, Farmer-herder conflict, trust, Fulani, Religion, KadunaState, Nigeria |
| JEL: | D74 O13 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmit:spvi2023101&r=agr |
| By: | Po Yin Wong (School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London.); Karlygash Kuralbayeva (King's College London); Liana O. Anderson (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN)); Ana M. Pessoa (National Institute for Space Research (INPE)); Torfinn Harding (University of Stavanger Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study Brazil’s Bolsa Verde program, which pays extremely poor households for implementing sustainable activities and maintaining forest cover at the communal level. Using difference-in-differences, we find that the program keeps deforestation 22% lower inside treated areas compared to similar untreated areas. The estimated program benefits in terms of emissions reductions are about four times the program costs. Heterogeneous effects across property types suggest that the program provides protection against deforestation pressure from groups other than program recipients. Data on fines and satellite-based alarms point to monitoring and reporting as a mechanism through which the program reduces illegal deforestation. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Poverty, Conservation, Evaluation, Brazil |
| JEL: | I38 O13 Q23 Q28 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:110&r=agr |
| By: | Guillaume Bataille (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Hubert Stahn (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Agnes Tomini (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | We examine the efficiency and environmental consequences of assigning species-specific common-property rights, considering a Lotka-Volterra model in which fisheries are specialized in the harvesting of a single species. We show that the fragmentation of the ecosystem implies the tragedy of the anticommons even when fisheries compete for the resource. Indeed, contrasting the private exploitation equilibrium with the socially optimal solution, we demonstrate that the predator stock is too high while the prey stock is too low under private property rights. A puzzling result is that the "abundant" species is actually underused because of insufficient economic incentives; however, the scarce and high-priced species does not necessarily suffer from overexploitation. Biological interactions are consequently the main driver of stock depletion. Finally, we investigate how to simultaneously solve both the tragedy of the commons and that of the anticommons and analyze the economic costs of regulating only the tragedy of the commons. |
| Keywords: | exclusive property rights, common-pool resource, anticommons, fisheries, prey-predator relationship, optimal control |
| JEL: | C61 C73 H23 Q22 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2305&r=agr |
| By: | Danilo Bertoni; Laure Latruffe (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Daniele Cavicchioli |
| Abstract: | The impact of business transfer on family business performance is widely explored in the literature but is neglected for agriculture although family farms are key players in the economy. We investigate whether the succession changes the economic performance of family firms for Italian family farms during the period 2008–2014. Our results show that succession on these family businesses has a negative effect on their economic performance related to capital, due to an increase in capital after succession. One policy implication is that support for investment by new farmers should be improved. |
| Keywords: | Family business, Succession, Economic performance, Propensity score matching, PSM, Italian farms |
| Date: | 2023–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03967915&r=agr |
| By: | Thibault Lemaire (UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - École d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Paul Vertier (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | Global commodity prices spikes can have strong macroeconomic effects, particularly in developing countries. This paper estimates the global commodity prices pass-through to consumer price inflation in Africa. Our sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02-2021m04. We consider 17 commodity prices separately to take into account both the heterogeneity in price variations and the cross-correlations between them, and to depart from aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in African countries. Using local projections in a panel dataset, we find a maximum passthrough of 24%, and a long-run pass-through of about 20%, higher than usually found in the literature. We also consider country-specific regressions to test whether estimated pass-through are related to countries' observable characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices, food prices, energy prices, inflation, pass-through, Africa |
| Date: | 2023–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03944888&r=agr |
| By: | Julien Jacob (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Caroline Orset Orset (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This literature review sheds light on the role of marketing authorisations and liabilities in controlling industry lobby behaviour aimed at enhancing the lobbyists' private interest to the detriment of the public interest. We present two political tools available to public authorities, marketing authorisation and liabilities (civil and criminal) to regulate firms that market products that could be harmful to society. We draw on the economic literature and contributions that study how these policy tools can be used to achieve three main objectives: providing incentives for risk mitigation, fostering innovation and the acquisition of information on unclear risks, and avoiding collusion between public bodies and the companies being regulated. We conclude with a brief discussion of the areas that require more in-depth research on this topic. |
| Keywords: | Industry risks, Information acquisition, Innovation, Liability rules, Lobby, Scientific uncertainty |
| Date: | 2022–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03966054&r=agr |
| By: | Sylvain Chabé-Ferret (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Institute for Advanced Studies - Institute for Advanced Studies); Philippe Le Coënt (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); Caroline Lefebvre (Laboratoire de Virologie [Toulouse] - CHU Toulouse [Toulouse]); Raphaële Préget (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); François Salanié (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Subervie Julie (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sophie S. Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Nudges are increasingly used to alter the behavior of economic agents as an alternative to monetary incentives. However, little is known as to whether nudges can backfire, that is, how and when they may generate effects opposite to those they intend to achieve. We provide the first field evidence of a nudge that is designed to encourage pro-environmental behavior, which instead backfires. We randomly allocate a social comparison nudge inviting winegrowers to adopt biological pest control as an alternative to chemical pesticide use. We find that our nudge decreases by half the adoption of biological pest control among the largest vineyards, where the bulk of adoption occurs. We show that this result can be rationalized in an economic model where winegrowers and winegrower-cooperative managers bargain over future rents generated by the adoption of biological pest control. This study highlights the importance of experimenting on a small scale with nudges aimed at encouraging adoption of virtuous behaviors in order to detect unexpected adverse effects, particularly in contexts where negotiations on the sharing of the costs of adoption are likely to occur. |
| Keywords: | Nudges, Behavioral Economics, Pesticides, Government Policy. |
| Date: | 2023–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03971193&r=agr |
| By: | Claridge, Jordan |
| Abstract: | This aim of this paper is to examine how a single English demesne (the personal farm of a seigniorial lord, as opposed to the land of their peasant tenants) managed its stock of working horses over a period of almost 170 years. It leverages the exceptionally rich body of surviving manorial accounts from the Battle Abbey manor of Barnhorn to look very closely, not only at how the demesne managed its horses, but how it operated within the context of the larger Battle Abbey estate. |
| Keywords: | medieval; agriculture; horses; horse trade; farm animals; pastoral agriculture; manor; manorial accounts; monastic records |
| JEL: | N00 N53 N73 N83 |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:118191&r=agr |
| By: | Thibault Lemaire; Paul Vertier |
| Abstract: | Global commodity prices spikes can have strong macroeconomic effects, particularly in developing countries. This paper estimates the global commodity prices pass-through to consumer price inflation in Africa. Our sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02-2021m04. We consider 17 commodity prices separately to take into account both the heterogeneity in price variations and the cross-correlations between them, and to depart from aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in African countries. Using local projections in a panel dataset, we find a maximum pass-through of 24%, and a long-run (18 months) pass-through of about 20%, higher than usually found in the literature, which typically uses aggregate indices. We also consider country-specific regressions to test whether estimated pass-through are related to countries’ observable characteristics. We find evidence that the pass-through is negatively correlated with the GDP per capita and the quality of transport infrastructure, and positively correlated with the share of food and energy in the consumption basket and the share of taxes on goods and services in government revenue. Net oil exporters, countries with larger energy subsidies and with a more independent central bank tend to have a lower pass-through. We further show that commodity-specific pass-through are correlated with the share of corresponding goods in the consumer basket. |
| Keywords: | Commodity Prices, Food Prices, Energy Prices, Inflation, Pass-Through, Africa |
| JEL: | C23 E31 F44 O11 Q02 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:906&r=agr |
| By: | Jorge M. Uribe (Universitat de Barcelona & Universitat Oberta de Catalunya.) |
| Abstract: | Climate change adaptation depends crucially on the fiscal space of countries. The historical accumulation of high debt levels among emerging and low-income developing countries, which are disproportionately affected by climate change, poses a significant concern. In light of this issue, we empirically examine the potential trade-off between reducing vulnerability to climate change and maintaining fiscal stability. Our findings indicate that governance, as a measure of institutional quality, is the key determinant of both fiscal stability and climate change preparedness. Thus, there is no inherent trade-off between the two aims. Higher levels of institutional quality result in increased preparedness for climate hazards and a lower likelihood of fiscal crises. However, our survival analysis also highlights that fiscal stability is contingent upon the debt burden, particularly the interest paid on that debt. This could potentially result in fiscal instability. In light of these findings, international efforts to address the consequences of climate change should aim to maintain relatively constant interest payments on debt among emerging and low-income countries during their ecological transition. Our results further suggest that enhancing human habitat conditions, while considering the role of governance, is the most effective means of simultaneously reducing the likelihood of a fiscal crisis and increasing preparedness for climate hazards. A reduction in the human habitat vulnerability index by one unit results in approximately a 40% decrease in the probability of a fiscal crisis, while an equivalent increase in governance reduces the probability by 55%. |
| Keywords: | Climate vulnerability, Climate hazards, Macroeconomic instability, Duration analysis, Survival analysis, Debt-overhang. JEL classification: E44, E62, F34, Q54. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202303&r=agr |
| By: | Samaniego, Joseluis; Lorenzo, Santiago; Rondón Toro, Estefani; Krieger Merico, Luiz Fernando; Herrera Jiménez, Juan; Rouse, Paul; Harrison, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | The negative impacts of climate change call for an urgent global response, to mitigate emissions and strengthen the adaptive capacity of social, economic, and environmental structures. In Latin America and the Caribbean, in a context of high vulnerability and three simultaneous crises affecting the region, development models need to be transformed, to bring about a sustainable transition. During this process, national and local policies must harness the full potential of climate action, through adoption of new technologies, innovation, productive reorganization, and identification of synergies. This is why nature-based solutions and carbon dioxide removal measures and technologies are critical to achieving climate goals. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the opportunities and challenges of large-scale implementation of such measures in the region, emphasizing the need to accelerate ongoing efforts, expand the research frontier and manage risks. |
| Date: | 2023–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:48691&r=agr |
| By: | Juliano Assunção; Flávia Chein; Giovanni Leo Frisari; Sérgio Mikio Koyama |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of climate-related events on the Brazilian banking sector. The analysis of physical risks reveals that, although short-run weather fluctuations and extreme events (droughts and floods) have limited impact on financial outcomes, climate change projections are expected to generate sizeable consequences to deposits and credit. We also document relevant geographical heterogeneity in the results and the importance of bank adaptation responses, avoiding areas with more considerable climate risks. The analysis of transition risks shows that the exposure of banks to green sectors concerning high impact sectors has a U-shape, growing since 2011. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:572&r=agr |
| By: | Chiara Criscuolo; Antoine Dechezleprêtre; Mario Cervantes |
| Abstract: | The transition to climate neutrality requires cost reductions in existing clean technologies to enable rapid deployment on a large scale, as well as the development of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen. This policy paper argues that science, technology, innovation, and industrial (STI&I) policies focusing on developing and deploying low-carbon technologies are crucial to achieving carbon neutrality. It notes however that the current level of innovation is insufficient to meet the net-zero challenge due to a policy emphasis on deployment rather than research and development (R&D) support. The paper explores the rationale for more ambitious STI&I policies targeted at R&D for climate neutrality and provides policy recommendations for an effective innovation policy for net-zero, including its interaction with the broader climate policy package. |
| Keywords: | climate change mitigation, innovation policy, low-carbon innovation, technological change |
| JEL: | O38 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaac:143-en&r=agr |
| By: | Katarzyna Reyman; Gunther Maier |
| Abstract: | We often observe substantial delays in the development of land. The literature lists a number of reasons: from risk and uncertainty to problems with the specific plot to land banking and speculation by investors. In an earlier, quantitative analysis for the GZM metropolis in Poland (Reyman, Maier, 2022), we applied survival analysis to the development process and found strong influence of institutional factors. This research extends and complements the earlier study with qualitative interviews with developers and city officials, two important actors in this process. We believe that clashing perspectives of those two actors will provide us with meaningful insights into institutional and behavioural factors that influence the time of land development in GZM. After four trial qualitative in-depth interviews with city officials, we re-think questions and intend to talk to a total of five city officials and five investors. We will select interview partners from different cities (big, small, rural counties), and different investors’ types (big – small, local – country/Europe level). In this presentation, we will report the results of the trial interviews. Some first preliminary observations are that city officials show a strong pro-investor attitude; do not see land speculation as a problem in their area; face competition from neighbouring cities for investors; observe some ownership problems caused by inheritance negligence or inhabitants’ emigration. |
| Keywords: | in-depth interviews; land development delays; land hoarding; timing of land development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_252&r=agr |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Preserving heritage is an important part of maintaining collective identity for future generations. Yet, in the context of the climate crisis, it is imperative to understand to what extent there is a tangible trade-off between conserving character vis-a-vis averting the worst of climate change – a much more existential threat to those future generations. Studying data for more than half of the English housing stock, I show that conservation area status – a special areabased designation to preserve the unique character of a neighborhood – not to be confused with preservation of historic buildings – in England may be responsible for up to 3.2 million tons of avoidable CO2 emissions annually. Using a suite of micro-econometric methods I show that properties in conservation areas have a notable worse energy efficiency; experience lower investment in retrofitting and consume notably higher levels of energy owing to poor energy efficiency. Effect sizes are very consistent comparing engineering based energ consumption estimates with actual consumption data. Effects can be directly attributed to planning requirements for otherwise permitted development that only apply to properties by virtue of them being located inside a conservation area. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency ; climate crisis ; zoning ; climate adaptation JEL codes: Q54 ; Q55 ; R14 ; R48 ; N74 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1451&r=agr |
| By: | Hillary Stein |
| Abstract: | I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand’s dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand’s largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its price is determined in twice-monthly auctions. I use event studies to quantify the impact of surprise auction results on the New Zealand dollar on a high-frequency basis. I find that a 1 percent increase in whole milk powder prices has a modest, but nevertheless significant, effect on the nominal exchange rate that does not seem to be explained by interest rate movements. Rather, the effect seems to be driven by a combination of two channels: a financial flows channel and a fundamental channel. The methodology developed here can potentially be applied to other commodity exporters. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates; commodity prices; terms of trade; event studies |
| JEL: | F31 F41 G14 |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:95646&r=agr |
| By: | Mauro Pisu; Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo; Assia Elgouacem; Tobias Kruse; Yannick Hemmerlé |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews different methods for assessing and comparing across countries the impact of climate change mitigation policies and policy packages on emissions. Broadening and deepening past and recent mitigation policies’ stocktaking efforts, as well as mapping them to their emission base, is key to comparing pricing and non-pricing policies and feed comparable information to ex-post empirical and ex-ante analytical models. Ex-post empirical approaches can provide benchmark estimates of policies' effectiveness from past data and furnish key parameter estimates to calibrate ex-ante analytical models (partial equilibrium, general equilibrium and integrated assessment models). Moreover, they can complement ex-ante analytical models by empirically validating their assumptions and informing models’ choices. Ex-ante analytical modelling are well suited to provide long-term forward-looking projections also on yet-to-be implemented policies. Sector specific models, such as energy system models, are well suited for a granular assessment of the impact on emissions of a wide range of price- and non-price-based policies. Outputs from the ex-ante sector-specific models can then feed into a Computable General Equilibrium model to quantify the effect of individual policies and policy packages on emissions, taking into account second order effects and reducing the risk of double counting the effect of policies. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, energy system models, evaluation of mitigation policies, general equilibrium models, stocktaking of mitigation policies |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1749-en&r=agr |
| By: | Philippe Boyer (Académie d'Agriculture de France) |
| Date: | 2022–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03883713&r=agr |