|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2022‒11‒07
sixty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Möllers, Judith; Herzfeld, Thomas; Batereanu, Lucia; Arapi-Gjini, Arjola |
| Abstract: | In the Republic of Moldova, agricultural policies aim to increase the compettveness of its farming sector, ensure the sustainable management of its natural resources and improve the living standards in rural areas. The state is an important player, allocatng fnancial resources for supportng agriculture and carrying out investment projects in this feld. A post-investment subsidy program incentvises agricultural producers to modernise their farms and producton. Farmers who have made investments in developing producton and post-harvest infrastructure could beneft from subsidies for these investments and fnancial resources allocated by the Agency for Interventon and Payments in Agriculture. However, it is not clear how benefcial these subsidies are for agricultural producers and whether the goals formulated by policies are met. A critcal challenge of policy assessment is the lack of regular surveys gathering farm-level data in Moldova. Another challenge is that the impact of some investments can only be quantfed with a delay of several years. This report results from an impact assessment study analysing the efectveness of existng policy measures. A survey of 800 farms was carried out to realise this assessment, which provided informaton about the actvity and investments made over several years. The team of researchers analysed the collected data to evaluate the policy measures covered by the survey. The study highlights essental facilitators and barriers to the farms' agricultural investment and business actvity. The impact assessment underlined that the investment subsidies had measurable positve efects on labour, farm producton and economic success. At the same tme, it indicated directons for improving and rebalancing policy instruments to increase the compettveness and sustainability of the agricultural sector of the Republic of Moldova. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:327297&r= |
| By: | Hörner,Denise; Bouguen,Adrien; Frölich,Markus; Wollni,Meike |
| Abstract: | In most of Sub-Saharan Africa, agricultural extension models have become more decentralizedand participatory and thus, rely on effective farmer-to-farmer learning, while increasingly includingnon-traditional forms of education. At the same time, agricultural technologies become more complex and are nowoften promoted as integrated packages, likely to increase the complexity of the diffusion process. Based on arandomized controlled trial, this study assesses the effects of ‘farmer-to-farmer’ extension and a video intervention onadoption of a complex technology package among 2,382 smallholders in Ethiopia. Both extension-only and extensioncombined with video increase adoption and knowledge of the package, especially of its more complex components; althoughon average, there is no additional effect of the video intervention on adoption. Knowledge and the number ofadopted practices also increase among farmers not actively participating in extension activities, suggestinginformation diffusion. For this group, the additional video intervention has a reinforcing effect, and particularlyfosters adoption of the integrated package. |
| Keywords: | Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing,Climate Change and Agriculture,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Agricultural Extension,Fertilizers |
| Date: | 2021–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9840&r= |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Baje, Lora Kryz; Ancheta, Jenica; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the government has intensified its lending programs to help the country’s agricultural sector, particularly smallholders, in accessing retail lending. However, the lack of markets and low prices have had significant implications on the repayment capacity and credit rating of small farmers and fisherfolk in the Philippines. Indeed, lending programs are unlikely to become successful if financing and production are not viewed in the bigger context of value chain financing. This paper looks into the current financing ecosystem of farmers and fisherfolk and provides recommendations on how the existing value chain financing can be made more inclusive and sustainable. |
| Keywords: | small farmers and fisherfolk;agricultural value chain financing; smallholder agricultural production |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2022_vol__46_no__1b&r= |
| By: | Fishman,Ram; Gine,Xavier; Jacoby,Hanan G. |
| Abstract: | Widespread adoption of efficient irrigation technologies, including drip irrigation, has been proposed as a means of limiting groundwater overexploitation, especially in the intensively farmed and water-stressed South Asia region. This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial conducted in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh to evaluate the potential productivity and water-saving benefits of smallholder drip irrigation. A group of well-owners was encouraged to adopt drip irrigation through a subsidy scheme, whereas a control group was left to its own devices. The results indicate that, after three years, the drip group shifted into more remunerative and irrigation reliant crops, enjoyed higher agricultural revenue, and transferred (primarily through cash sales) more of its groundwater to adjacent plots. In terms of groundwater pumping, which has zero marginal price in this setting, there is precisely zero difference between the drip and control groups. The evidence thus suggests that drip adoption in South India, while increasing irrigation efficiency, will not save groundwater. |
| Keywords: | Hydrology,Irrigation and Drainage,Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage,Water and Food Supply,Climate Change and Agriculture,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Energy Policies&Economics |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9713&r= |
| By: | Moritz Laber; Peter Klimek; Martin Bruckner; Liuhuaying Yang; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | The war in Ukraine highlighted the vulnerability of the global food supply system. Due to dependencies in the global food-production network, the local loss of one crop can lead to shortages in other countries and affect other products made from it. Previous studies treat products in isolation and do not account for product conversion during production. Here, we reveal the losses of 125 food products after a localized shock to agricultural production in 192 countries using a multilayer network model of trade (direct) and conversion of food products (indirect), thereby quantifying $10^8$ shock transmissions. We find that a complete agricultural production loss in Ukraine has highly heterogeneous impacts on other countries, causing relative losses of 89% in sunflower oil and 85% in maize via direct effects, and up to 25% in poultry meat via indirect impacts. Our model offers a general framework to assess systemic risks in the food system |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2210.01846&r= |
| By: | Marie Merlo; Thia Hennessy; Cathal Buckley; Seamus O’Mahony |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa181:327307&r= |
| By: | Dessy,Sylvain Eloi; Tiberti,Luca; Tiberti,Marco; Zoundi,David Aime |
| Abstract: | Climate change and weather shocks pose major challenges for household income security and well-being, especially for smallholder farmers’ communities. In such communities, imperfect risk insurance and labor markets may induce households to use traditional institutions such as polygyny to harness their size and composition to their resilience strategies against these shocks. This paper tests this hypothesis by analyzing how polygyny’s interaction with droughts affects crop yields. For identification, the paper relies on the spatial variation in polygyny’s prevalence across Mali’s rural communes and the randomness of drought episodes. The findings show that polygynous communities are more resilient to drought-induced crop failure. Exploration of the mechanisms shows that polygynous communities diversify their income sources more than monogamous ones, including via child marriage—a phenomenon known to undermine women’s outcomes. As the literature links polygyny to underdevelopment, interventions to eliminate it should make formal resilience and adaptation strategies available to drought-prone communities. Failure to do so may entrench political opposition to enforcing a ban on polygyny and child marriage. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Climate Change and Agriculture,Livestock and Animal Husbandry,Food Security,Social Cohesion |
| Date: | 2021–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9663&r= |
| By: | Yacoubou Djima,Ismael; Kilic,Talip |
| Abstract: | An accurate understanding of how input use affects agricultural productivity in smallholderfarming systems is key to designing policies that can improve productivity, food security, and living standards inrural areas. Studies examining the relationships between agricultural productivity and inputs typically rely on landproductivity measures, such as crop yields, that are informed by self-reported survey data on crop production.This paper leverages unique survey data from Mali to demonstrate that self-reported crop yields, vis-à-vis(objective) crop cut yields, are subject to non-classical measurement error that in turn biases the estimatesof returns to inputs, including land, labor, fertilizer, andseeds. The analysis validates an alternative approach to estimate the relationship between crop yields andagricultural inputs using large-scale surveys, namely a within-survey imputation exercise that derives predicted,otherwise unobserved, objective crop yields that stem from a machine learning model that is estimated with a randomsubsample of plots for which crop cutting and self-reported yields are both available. Using data from a methodologicalsurvey experiment and a nationally representative survey conducted in Mali, the analysis demonstrates that it ispossible to obtain predicted objective sorghum yields with attenuated non-classical measurement error, resulting in aless biased assessment of the relationship between yields and agricultural inputs. The discussion expands on theimplications of the findings for (i) future research on agricultural intensification, and (ii) the design of futuresurveys in which objective data collection could be limited to a subsample to save costs, with the intention to applythe suggested machine learning approach. |
| Keywords: | Crops and Crop Management Systems,Climate Change and Agriculture,Food Security,Gender and Development,Labor & Employment Law,Agricultural Economics |
| Date: | 2021–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9841&r= |
| By: | Iimi,Atsushi |
| Abstract: | Despite the richness of the existing literature, it remains a challenge to find rigorous evidence of the impacts of transport connectivity on agricultural production. The paper aims at contributing to the prolonged debate on the transport-agriculture nexus in Africa, by taking advantage of the unique circumstances in Mozambique where the government intensively invested in road infrastructure during a relatively short period of time in the 2010s. With the highly disaggregated location-specific fixed-effects and instrumental variable technique used to control for the endogeneity issue, the paper shows that the improved road connectivity increased agricultural production significantly. In particular, access to domestic markets is found to be important. It is also found that agricultural production exhibits decreasing returns to scale, heavily depending on land input. |
| Keywords: | Transport Services,Food Security,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Climate Change and Agriculture,Inequality,Irrigation and Drainage,Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage |
| Date: | 2021–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9728&r= |
| By: | Kosec, Katrina; Schmidt, Emily; Carrillo, Lucia; Fang, Peixun; Ivekolia, Mark; Ovah, Raywin |
| Abstract: | Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Investments in midstream value chain infrastructure (e.g., improved storage facilities, rural feeder roads, electricity, and cold storage transport) are crucial to strengthen linkages between producers and consumers. These investments should also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. In this study, we analyzed three key value chains in Papua New Guinea—poultry, sweet potato, and fresh vegetables—aiming to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward ways to improve productivity, increase revenue, and bolster competitiveness and inclusiveness within the agriculture and livestock sectors. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA, OCEANIA, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:11&r= |
| By: | Ngoma,Hambulo,Finn,Arden Jeremy,Kabisa,Mulako |
| Abstract: | To what extent do the behavioral choices of Zambian smallholder farmers influence the negative effects of climate shocks, and what impact do these choices have on vulnerability and resilience? This paper uses nationally representative, three-wave household-level panel data to investigate these questions. The empirical estimation employs an instrumental variable probit regression model, which also controls for the endogeneity of key choice variables. There are four main empirical findings. First, droughts are the most prevalent climate shock rural smallholder farmers in Zambia face, but the extent of exposure differs spatially, with the Southern and Western Provinces being the hardest hit. Nationally, about three-quarters of all smallholder farmers are vulnerable and only about one-quarter are resilient. Second, increased climate shocks correlate with both increased vulnerability and reduced resilience, with short- and long-term deviations in seasonal rainfall worsening vulnerability and resilience. Third, higher asset endowments and education level of the household head reduce vulnerability and increase resilience among smallholder farmers. Female-headed households are more vulnerable and less resilient, on average. Fourth, the use of climate-smart agricultural practices—namely, minimum tillage and use of inorganic fertilizers or hybrid maize seed—significantly improves household resilience in the short term. The paper draws two main policy implications from the findings. First, the results point to an urgent need to invest in research and development for climate shock–tolerant crop varieties and in broader climate-smart agricultural technologies to scale out and scale up context-specific practices through innovative digital platforms. Second, more investment is needed in risk mitigation strategies such as weather indexed insurance, targeted social cash transfers and how to make these work effectively for smallholder farmers. Other important complementary elements include investment in innovative digital platforms that can facilitate timely delivery of climate information services and facilitating asset accumulation and education that can enable farmers to improve climate shock resilience over time. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Natural Disasters,Food Security,Poverty Assessment,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Poverty Lines,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Poverty Diagnostics |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9758&r= |
| By: | Spiegel, Alisa; Heidecke, Claudia; Osterburg, Bernhard |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa181:327299&r= |
| By: | Adam Wąs; Paweł Kobus; Vitaliy Krupin; Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks; Maciej Pyrka; Robert Jeszke; Krystian Szczepański |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa181:327300&r= |
| By: | Komatsu,Hitomi; Ambel,Alemayehu A.; Koolwal,Gayatri B.; Yonis,Manex Bule |
| Abstract: | The rural land use fee and agricultural income tax are major payments for rural landholders in Ethiopia. This paper examines the gender implications of these taxes using tax payment and individual land ownership data from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey 2018/2019. It finds that the rural land use fee and agricultural income tax, which are assessed on the area of landholdings, are regressive. Female-headed- and female adult-only households bear a larger tax burden than male-headed and dual-adult households. Norms limiting women’s role in agriculture and gender agricultural productivity gaps are likely to result in lower consumption and accordingly, a higher tax burden for female-headed households than for male-headed households. Reducing the tax rates for smallholders can diminish the gender difference in tax burdens, but the tax continues to be regressive. This highlights the difficulty of area-based land taxes to be vertically equitable. |
| Keywords: | Gender and Development,Taxation&Subsidies,Gender and Economics,Gender and Poverty,Economics and Gender,Gender and Economic Policy,Macro-Fiscal Policy,Public Sector Economics,Economic Adjustment and Lending,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Food Security |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9715&r= |
| By: | Bhatta, Astha |
| Abstract: | Though declining in importance as Nepal undergoes structural transformation, agriculture still accounts for 23.9% of GDP and one in five people was employed in the sector with a larger share of women (33 percent) employed in agriculture than men (14.7 percent) (Labor survey of 2017-18). While not directly employed in agriculture, approximately 60 percent of the population has some engagement with the sector. |
| Keywords: | NEPAL, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, food security, war, agriculture, agricultural sector, risk, agricultural products, fertilizers, women, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resapn:22&r= |
| By: | Ali,Daniel Ayalew; Deininger,Klaus W. |
| Abstract: | The importance of well-functioning land markets for structural transformation via labormovements to the non-agricultural sector, growth in farm size, and the ability to use land as collateral for creditand has long motivated Government efforts at reducing the transaction costs of registering and transferring land andsupporting large farm formation. Rigorous evidence on the effect of such measures has, however, been scant. This paperexplores the impact of institutional arrangements on productivity for a representative sample of 3,000 largefarms in Zambia, one of the earliest African adopters of such policies to close this gap. Instrumental-variable (IV)regressions suggest title has no effect on productivity, investment, or credit access and reduces rather thanimproves rental market participation. Measures to harness Zambia’s potential include improving title quality throughexclusive use of digital registries; imposition of a land tax on state land to incentivize productive rather thanspeculative land use and cancel outdated legacy documents; and greater involvement of traditional authorities in recordmaintenance and land management, possibly via land tax revenue sharing. |
| Keywords: | Land Administration,Food Security,Agricultural Economics |
| Date: | 2021–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9702&r= |
| By: | Léa Crepin (Paris-Saclay University, AgroParisTech, INRAE, Paris-Saclay Applied Economics, 91120, Palaiseau, France & Climate Economics Chair, Palais Brongniart, 28 Place de la Bourse, Paris, 75002, France) |
| Abstract: | Minimizing the trade-offs between agricultural production, development and forest conservation is key to ensure that conservation policies can achieve long-term impacts. Taking the case of the Brazilian Amazon in the context of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon, we estimate the impact of the blacklisting of municipalities with high deforestation risk on soybean production (a major driver of deforestation), exports and land-use changes. Difference-in-difference regressions and generalised synthetic control method are first used to determine the impacts of the policy. The triple difference strategy is then applied to explore heterogeneity in the production and export changes across municipalities. We find that, although effective to reduce deforestation, the policy is unlikely to have undermined the soybean production and exports. On the contrary, our results suggest that the soybean sector benefited from the changes in land use following the implementation of the blacklist. However, we do not find evidence that land restriction triggered intensification of soybean production, which suggests that soybean benefited from an intra-crops reallocation. |
| Keywords: | deforestation, conservation policy, soybean, priority list, Amazon |
| JEL: | Q23 Q17 Q58 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2022.07&r= |
| By: | Nabwire, Leocardia; Van Campenhout, Bjorn |
| Abstract: | This policy note summarizes results of a study on the impact of COVID-19 on dairy value chains in Uganda. We use a stack survey consisting of 1616 dairy farmers, 695 small-scale milk traders, and 93 milk collection centers (MCCs) that were surveyed in-person in late 2018 as the basis for follow-up telephone interviews in 2020 and 2021. We find that the COVID-19 crisis mainly affected the dairy value chain through a reduction in demand as international trade reduced and households reduced consumption of more expensive foods due to income losses. As a result, prices drastically reduced at multiple stages of the value chain, and the number of actors affected by the price decrease worsened as the pandemic persisted. In general, we see that while dairy business closures during COVID-19 are limited, the joint reduction in demand and price leads to widespread reductions in scale of operation, dairy revenues and household income, although these somewhat recover over time, especially among MCCs. In the long-run, policy efforts to increase and stabilize local and export demand for dairy products seems most promising. For example, the government may institute policies that promote consumption of dairy products in schools and homes through information campaigns or temporary dairy vouchers. Government should also make it a priority to keep international trade flowing. |
| Keywords: | UGANDA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, processors, revenue, foods, value chains, international trade, markets, institutions, farmers, traders, household income, food security, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, dairy industry, policies, agricultural value chains, social protection |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:february2022&r= |
| By: | Nico, Gianluigi; Azzarri, Carlo; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is strongly affected by environmental factors, including variability in temperature and precipitation, which in turn shape the livelihoods farmers derive. In this context, the intensity of engagement in agriculture is directly influenced by temperature and rainfall patterns (ILO 2018). Both extreme weather shocks (that is, heat waves, droughts, and floods) and weather variability (that is, changes in temperature and rainfall patterns) can significantly disrupt participation in agriculture and related sectors, particularly when farmers’ capacity to cope with and adapt to these shocks is low. This policy note summarizes the results of a study designed to quantify the impact of climate variability and extreme weather shocks on the intensity of individuals’ participation in the agricultural sector in Africa, where intra-annual weather variability is high, and dependence on rainfed agriculture is significant. The study specifically focused on changes in the number of weekly hours worked in response to weather variability and climate extremes, and explored both the impact on women’s participation and their potential to mitigate the negative effects of these shocks. |
| Keywords: | AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, CENTRAL AFRICA, EAST AFRICA, NORTH AFRICA, SOUTHERN AFRICA, WEST AFRICA, agriculture, weather, climate change, environment, farmers, women, agricultural employment, extreme shocks |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gcanpn:14&r= |
| By: | Lassalas, Marie; Chatellier, Vincent; Detang-Dessendre, Cécile; Dupraz, Pierre; Guyomard, Hervé |
| Abstract: | The future CAP displays a greater climate and environmental ambition sought notably through the new first-pillar instrument of the eco-scheme. This article analyses the access conditions of farmers to the French eco-scheme through the so-called environmental certification way. Our results highlight the low level of climate and environmental ambition of this access way since almost all farms would have access to the first level and more than a third to the upper level without any change in their current practices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:324701&r= |
| By: | Galang, Ivory Myka R. |
| Abstract: | Credit programs have been long viewed as salient means to develop the Philippine agriculture sector, especially small-farm agriculture. From subsidized directed, credit programs in the country have become more market-oriented in recent years. However, there have been little to no studies examining how access to credit affects the agricultural performance of poor agricultural producers, including the beneficiaries of the agrarian reform program. Using primary data from the Department of Agrarian Reform’s Baseline Survey on Project Convergence on Value Chain Enhancement for Rural Growth and Empowerment, this study analyzes the borrowing incidence among Agrarian Reform Beneficiary Organization (ARBO) member households, particularly those engaged in farm production. The results show that (1) borrowing ARBO agricultural households are better off than the nonborrowing ones in terms of housing characteristics and agricultural performance; (2) farmer associations and cooperatives are among the top sources of agricultural credit in the countryside aside from microfinance institutions; (3) and Certificate of Land Ownership Award-holding ARBO agricultural households have higher borrowing incidence than the average ARBO agricultural households. Thus, to further improve credit retailers’ lending performance and reach in the countryside, the study recommends giving leadership and management capacity training. |
| Keywords: | credit; poor; agrarian reform beneficiaries; CLOA; collective CLOA; individual CLOA; loan; formal credit; informal credit; agricultural households; DAR |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2021-07&r= |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This report contributes to the project "Securing agriculture and rural development in times of COVID-19, pathways to regional responses for recovery, reforms, and resilience" by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The objectives of the report are threefold: 1) to assess the multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture, food security, and rural community; 2) to review the policy responses taken by the governments of eight Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) countries to mitigate the effects of the crisis, and 3) to provide contextual options to build the resilience of the agricultural sector during post-COVID-19 recovery and against future shocks. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:327296&r= |
| By: | Galang, Ivory Myka R. |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies the benefits and problems in the subdivision of collective land titles in the Philippines. In particular, it discusses how the parcelization of collective Certificates of Land Ownership Awards (CCLOAs) can improve the agricultural performance of farmers. Baseline survey data from the Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR)’s Project Convergence on Value Chain Enhancement for Rural Growth and Empowerment provide evidence favoring to accelerate the subdivision of CCLOAs. This study encourages the adoption of other rural development strategies, such as farm consolidation, aside from the parcelization of land titles. DAR must also adopt a modern cadaster and record system to improve the country’s agrarian justice delivery system and efficiently implement the parcelization program. |
| Keywords: | CCLOAs;agrarian reform beneficiaries;agriculture;Project ConVERGE |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:pjdevt:pidspjd2022-2a&r= |
| By: | Buschmann, Christoph; Osterburg, Bernhard |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa181:327306&r= |
| By: | Michler,Jeffrey David; Josephson,Anna Leigh; Kilic,Talip; Murray,Siobhan |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurementerror in remote sensing weather data in the analysis of smallholder agricultural productivity. The analysisleverages 17 rounds of nationally-representative, panel household survey data from six countries in Sub-SaharanAfrica. These data are spatially linked with a range of geospatial weather data sources and related metrics. Thepaper provides systematic evidence on measurement error introduced by (1) different methods used to obfuscate theexact GPS coordinates of households, (2) different metrics used to quantify precipitation and temperature, and (3)different remote sensing measurement technologies. First, the analysis finds no discernible effect of measurementerror introduced by different obfuscation methods. Second, it finds that simple weather metrics, such as total seasonalrainfall and mean daily temperature, outperform more complex metrics, such as deviations in rainfall from the long-runaverage or growing degree days, in a broad range of settings. Finally, the analysis finds substantial amounts ofmeasurement error based on remote sensing products. In extreme cases, the data drawn from different remote sensingproducts result in opposite signs for coefficients on weather metrics, meaning that precipitation or temperaturedrawn from one product purportedly increases crop output while the same metrics drawn from a different productpurportedly reduces crop output. The paper concludes with a set of six best practices for researchers looking to combineremote sensing weather data with socioeconomic survey data. |
| Keywords: | Disability,Climate Change and Agriculture,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Food Security,Labor & Employment Law,Labor Markets,Rural Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9867&r= |
| By: | Julia B. Block; Michael Danne; Oliver Mußhoff |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa181:327308&r= |
| By: | Khan,Amjad Muhammad; Rodella,Aude-Sophie |
| Abstract: | Do Sahelian countries face specific risks of water-related conflict Sahelian countries facegrowing fragility and climate challenges—especially those belonging to the Group of Five Sahel States (known as the G5Sahel)—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. This study examines how their relation to water availability andirrigation infrastructure factors in. It documents that the G5 Sahel countries, given their high baseline water scarcityand state fragility, face a higher risk of conflict over water resources compared to the rest of Africa. This isdemonstrated through empirical analyses using geospatial data and exploiting (i) climate-induced variation in wateravailability, and (ii) an event study analysis of conflict trends, which sharply increased post-2010 in the regionfollowing the Arab Spring and the rise of the Boko Haram. Irrigated areas are found to be important for bufferingagainst weather shocks but are also more prone to targeting during conflict events compared to non-irrigated regions.The evidence suggests that this reflects increased competition for scarce (fertile) resources between state andrebel groups on this climate frontier with a well-documented history of agropastoral conflict. Other regions of Africaare not found to experience similar conflict related to water resources. These findings are especially pertinent forinforming projects and policy interventions in fragile countries as post-COVID-19 recovery and climate action plansare rolled out. |
| Keywords: | Hydrology,Irrigation and Drainage,Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage,Labor Markets,Nutrition,Food Security |
| Date: | 2021–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9805&r= |
| By: | Hart N. Feuer (Kyoto University [Kyoto]); Fatiha Fort (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Geographical Indication (GI) has been employed in Europe to promote well-known agri-food products, many with reputations going back hundreds of years, so there has been an assumption that the protection of such historical patrimony would materi- alize in countries adopting European-style GI policies. However, from a public policy view in many new GI countries, the primary goal for GI has more narrowly been the expansion of economic opportunities and exports. The question we raise in this paper concerns the extent to which the prioritization of economic growth encourages GI regulators to accept and even encourage ahistorical territorial and production speci- fications that disadvantage or discourage the oldest and most traditional producers. This argument cen- tres around two renowned producers in the historical Mikawa Region of 1 Japan, which have struggled to realize the potential of GI or have become embroiled in legal disputes. We document how the GI authori- ties' top-down implementation and utilitarian view of promoting production has clouded their ability to evaluate patrimony based upon historical merit, lead- ing to unfavourable starting positions for famous products with hundreds of years of history. |
| Keywords: | Japon |
| Date: | 2022–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03791270&r= |
| By: | Ruth Jazrel M. Bandong; Pedcris M. Orencio; Bernice Anne C. Darvin-De Torres |
| Abstract: | To strengthen family farming in the Southeast Asian region effectively, it is necessary to understand where the initiatives are in terms of policy support and how family farmers participate in the integrated phases of the policy cycle (Howell et al. 2009). Therefore, this paper aims to provide insights on the importance of grassroots participation in public policymaking and assess various mechanisms and pathways towards an enabling environment that supports the development of family farming in SEA. This was done through analysis of information gathered from stakeholders who attended the Regional Policy Forum on Developing Public Policies for Family Farming: Reaching Out to the Grassroots through Participatory Policy Making. This regional forum was organized by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) in partnership with the Asian Farmers’ Association for Sustainable Rural Development (AFA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and was held on 27 April 2021 via Zoom. |
| Keywords: | policy, grassroots, family farming, Southeast Asia |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sag:seappr:2022:534&r= |
| By: | N. Devaraju (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Rémi Prudhomme (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Anna Lungarska (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Xuhui Wang (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences [Beijing] - Peking University [Beijing]); Zun Yin (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nathalie de Noblet-Decoudré (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Raja R. Chakir (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pierre-Alain Jayet (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thierry Brunelle (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nicolas Viovy (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adriana De Palma (Department of Life Sciences - NHM - The Natural History Museum [London]); Ricardo Gonzalez (Department of Life Sciences - NHM - The Natural History Museum [London], Department of Life Sciences - Imperial College London); Philippe Ciais (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impacts of a public policy scenario that aims to halve nitrogen (N) fertilizer application across European Union (EU) agriculture on both carbon (C) sequestration and biodiversity changes. We quantify the impacts on ecosystem C and biodiversity by integrating economic models (supply-side model AROPAj and partial equilibrium model NLU) with an agricultural land surface model (ORCHIDEE-CROP) and a biodiversity model (PREDICTS). The two economic models simulate contrasting ways of implementing a 50% nitrogen reduction policy: a massive land abandonment with a large reduction in agricultural production (AROPAj); an extensification of crop production with a smaller reduction in agricultural production (NLU). Here, we show that the two economic scenarios lead to different outcomes in terms of C sequestration potential and biodiversity. Land abandonment associated with increased fertilizer price in the supply-side model facilitates higher C sequestration in soils (+1,014 MtC) and similar species richness levels (+1.9%) at the EU scale. On the other hand, more extensive crop production is associated with lower C sequestration potential in soils (-97 MtC) and similar species richness levels (-0.4%) because of a lower area of grazing land. Our results therefore highlight the complexity of the environmental consequences of a nitrogen reduction policy, which will depend fundamentally on how it is implemented. |
| Abstract: | Dans cette étude, nous examinons les impacts d'un scénario de politique publique visant à réduire de moitié l'application d'engrais azotés (N) dans l'agriculture de l'Union européenne (UE) sur la séquestration du carbone (C) et les changements de biodiversité. Nous quantifions les impacts sur le C et la biodiversité des écosystèmes en intégrant des modèles économiques (modèle de l'offre AROPAj et modèle d'équilibre partiel NLU) avec un modèle de surface des terres agricoles (ORCHIDEE-CROP) et un modèle de biodiversité (PREDICTS). Les deux modèles économiques simulent des manières contrastées de mettre en œuvre une politique de réduction de 50% de l'azote : un abandon massif des terres avec une forte réduction de la production agricole (AROPAj) ; une extensification de la production végétale avec une plus faible réduction de la production agricole (NLU). Nous montrons ici que les deux scénarios économiques conduisent à des résultats différents en termes de potentiel de séquestration du carbone et de biodiversité. L'abandon des terres associé à une augmentation du prix des engrais dans le modèle de l'offre facilite une plus grande séquestration de C dans les sols (+1,014 MtC) et des niveaux de richesse des espèces similaires (+1,9%) à l'échelle de l'UE. En revanche, une production végétale plus extensive est associée à un potentiel de séquestration de carbone plus faible dans les sols (-97 MtC) et à des niveaux de richesse des espèces similaires (-0,4 %) en raison d'une surface de pâturage plus faible. Nos résultats soulignent donc la complexité des conséquences environnementales d'une politique de réduction de l'azote, qui dépendra fondamentalement de la manière dont elle sera mise en œuvre. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural land surface model |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03763653&r= |
| By: | Das,Smita; Delavallade,Clara Anne; Fashogbon,Ayodele Emmanuel; Ogunleye,Wale Olatunji; Papineni,Sreelakshmi |
| Abstract: | Occupational sex segregation is a key driver of the gender gap in earnings. Using data from 11,691 aspiring agribusiness entrepreneurs across five states in Nigeria, this paper explores the gender gap in the sectoral choice decision, and especially the role played by norms around gender roles. When given a choice of 11 agricultural value chains in a government program, the majority (54 percent) of the entrepreneurs chose to enter into poultry, a value chain with relatively lower profit potential, and women were more likely to choose poultry than men. This paper finds evidence of more restrictive gender norms in Northern States, which lowers women’s likelihood of crossing over to potentially more lucrative value chains. The gender gap in sectoral choice is also attributed to differences in work experience especially in agricultural activities and in the chosen value chain, as well as in land ownership and differential access to tertiary-level education. The paper shows that women with more experience in male-dominated value chains exhibit lower self-efficacy, which could reflect the challenges they face when deviating from social norms to operate within these sectors. |
| Keywords: | Gender and Development,Inequality,Educational Sciences,Food Security |
| Date: | 2021–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9695&r= |
| By: | Abay,Kibrom A.; Barrett,Christopher B.; Kilic,Talip; Moylan,Heather G.; Ilukor,John; Vundru,Wilbert Drazi |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on a randomized experiment conducted among Malawian agricultural householdsto study nonclassical measurement error in self-reported plot area and farmers’ responses to new information (theobjective plot area measure) that was provided to correct nonclassical measurement error. Farmers' pre-treatmentself-reported plot areas exhibit considerable nonclassical measurement error, most of which follows aregression-to-mean pattern with respect to plot area, and another 18 percent of which arises from asymmetric roundingto half-acre increments. Randomized provision of GPS-based measures of true plot area generates four importantfindings. First, farmers incompletely update mistaken self-reports; most nonclassical measurement error persistseven after the provision of true plot area measures. Second, farmers update asymmetrically in response to information,with upward corrections being far more common than downward ones even though most plot sizes were initiallyoverestimated. Third, the magnitude of updating varies by true plot area and the magnitude and direction of initialnonclassical measurement error. Fourth, the information treatment affects self-reported information about non-landinputs, such as fertilizer and labor, indicating that the effects of measurement error and updating spill over acrossvariables. Nonclassical measurement error reflects behavioral anomalies and carries implications for bothsurvey data collection methods and the design of information-based interventions. |
| Keywords: | Labor & Employment Law,Food Security,Climate Change and Agriculture,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Health Care Services Industry,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2022–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9908&r= |
| By: | Olatunji A. Shobande (University of Aberdeen, UK); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study examines the role of natural resources and the carbon emission Kuznets curve (CKC) in managing the climate crisis in Africa, using annual series data from the World Bank from 1980 to 2019. The empirical strategy is based on the second-generation panel techniques that account for cross-sectional dependency in the series. Specifically, the empirical evidence is based on the Westerlund (2017) panel cointegration test, panel augmented mean group (AMG), common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and the vector autoregressive-vector error correction (VAR) approach. Evidence from the panel analysis confirmed the existence of CKC U-shaped nexus in Africa, but the country-level results are mixed. Furthermore, results using the vector autoregressive-vector correction model indicate possible convergence among the variables across the African countries. Also, natural resource unidirectionally Granger-causes carbon emissions. We suggest the consideration of environmental factors in the utilisation of natural resources. Similarly, energy efficiency is crucial to decouple carbon from energy usage. Our results highlight the importance of the effective and efficient management of natural resources, and energy efficiency in mitigating the aftermath of carbon emissions and preventing a climate crisis in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Kuznets Curve; carbon emission; Natural resource; climate crisis; Time series analysis; Africa |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:22/077&r= |
| By: | Carletto,Calogero; Dillon,Andrew S.; Zezza,Alberto |
| Abstract: | Advances in agricultural data production provide ever-increasing opportunities for pushing the research frontier in agricultural economics and designing better agricultural policy. As new technologies present opportunities to create new and integrated data sources, researchers face trade-offs in survey design that may reduce measurement error or increase coverage. This paper first reviews the econometric and survey methodology literatures that focus on the sources of measurement error and coverage bias in agricultural data collection. Second, it provides examples of how agricultural data structure affects testable empirical models. Finally, it reviews the challenges and opportunities offered by technological innovation to meet old and new data demands and address key empirical questions, focusing on the scalable data innovations of greatest potential impact for empirical methods and research. |
| Keywords: | Food Security,International Trade and Trade Rules,Labor&Employment Law,Gender and Development,Climate Change and Agriculture,Crops and Crop Management Systems |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9745&r= |
| By: | Fukase,Emiko; Kim,Yeon Soo; Chiarella,Cristina Andrea |
| Abstract: | Previous literature found overwhelming evidence of an agricultural gender gap in favorof male farmers. The case of Sri Lanka is unique as agricultural productivity, measured by yield per unit ofland, is 25.4 percent higher among female farmers than male farmers. Using the nationally representative 2016 Sri LankaHousehold Income and Expenditure Survey and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique, the paper exploresthe sources of this unconditional female productivity advantage. The analysis finds that the smaller plot sizecultivated by women is the leading source of female productivity advantage, reflecting the inverse relationshipbetween cultivated area and productivity. However, this productivity advantage does not translate into women’shigher crop earnings. Another important source is the gendered pattern of crop mix as women tend to cultivate morehigh-value, export-oriented crops, while men are more likely to grow paddy with low productivity. Once controlling forplot size and crop mix, a conditional male productivity advantage emerges, reflecting men’s greater access toagricultural resources and potentially an unequal pattern of division of labor associated with social and gender norms.Policies to promote equitable access to resources and address other constraints to women’s productivity inagriculture continue to be important in promoting gender equality. |
| Date: | 2022–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10025&r= |
| By: | Cirera,Xavier; Comin,Diego Adolfo; Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose; Lee,Kyungmin |
| Abstract: | Technology is key to boost productivity and generate more and better quality jobs in Senegal. This paper uses a novel approach to measure technology adoption at the firm level and applies it to a representative sample of firms in Senegal. It provides new measures of technology adoption at the firm level, which identify the purposes for which technologies are used and analyzes some of the key barriers to improving technology adoption at the firm level in Senegal. First, the adoption of general-purpose information and communications technologies, such as computers, the internet, and cloud computing for business purpose, is low but very heterogeneous and positively associated with size and formal status. Second, most firms still rely on pre-digital technologies to perform general business functions, such as business administration, production planning, supply chain management, marketing, sales, and payment. Third, most firms, including large and formal firms, still rely on manual methods or manually operated machines to perform critical pro duction tasks that are sector specific, such as harvesting in agriculture or packaging in food processing. The paper presents evidence of three main challenges to improve technology adoption: access to finance, information, and knowledge (firm capabilities), and access to markets and competition. |
| Keywords: | Food Security,Energy Policies&Economics,Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage,Irrigation and Drainage,Livestock and Animal Husbandry,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Pulp&Paper Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Food&Beverage Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Construction Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,General Manufacturing |
| Date: | 2021–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9657&r= |
| By: | Markhof,Yannick Valentin; Ponzini,Giulia; Wollburg,Philip Randolph |
| Abstract: | Every year, disasters account for billions of dollars in crop production losses in low- andmiddle-income countries and particularly threaten the lives and livelihoods of those depending on agriculture. Withclimate change accelerating, this burden will likely increase in the future and accurate, micro-level measurementof crop losses will be important to understand disasters’ implications for livelihoods, prevent humanitarian crises,and build future resilience. Survey data present a large, rich, highly disaggregated information source that istrialed and tested to the specifications of smallholder agriculture common in low- and middle-income countries.However, to tap into this potential, a thorough understanding of and robust methodology for measuringdisaster crop production losses in survey microdata is essential. This paper exploits plot-level panel data foralmost 20,000 plots on 8,000 farms in three Sub-Saharan African countries with information on harvest, input use,and different proxies of losses; household and community-level data; as well data from other sources suchas crop cutting and survey experiments, to provide new insights into the reliability of survey-based crop lossestimates and their attribution to disasters. The paper concludes with concrete recommendations for methodology andsurvey design and identifies key avenues for further research. |
| Date: | 2022–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9968&r= |
| By: | Kebede,Hundanol Atnafu |
| Abstract: | International commodity price shocks may have large impacts on producers in developing countries.In this paper, a unique household panel data from Ethiopia is utilize to show that a decrease in international coffeeprice has strong pass-through to the consumption of households that rely on coffee production as a main sourceof livelihood. It also results in decreases in on-farm labor supply (particularly male labor supply) and inducesreallocation of labor towards non-coffee fields, but has negligible effect on off-farm labor supply. The decline inconsumption has significant consequences on child malnutrition: children born in coffee-producing householdsduring low coffee price periods have lower weight-to-age and weight-to-height z-scores than their peers born innon-coffee households. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Health Care Services Industry,Nutrition,International Trade and Trade Rules |
| Date: | 2021–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9839&r= |
| By: | Abay,Kibrom A.; Hirfrfot,Kibrom Tafere; Berhane,Guush; Chamberlin,Jordan; Abay,Mehari H. |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than ayear. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of thewar, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihoodactivities of affected households. The analysis uses difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends inthe outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak ofthe civil war. The findings show that seven months into the conflict, the outbreak of the civil war increased theprobability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location andEvent Data on households’ exposure to violent conflict, the analysis shows that exposure to one additional battle leadsto a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reducedhouseholds’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities.Non-farm and wage-related activities have been the most affected by the conflict, while farming activities have beenrelatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas have been much more affected than those in ruralareas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on thepopulation, constitute novel evidence of the near-real-time impacts of an ongoing civil conflict, providing directevidence of how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. The paperhighlights the potential of phone surveys to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts whereconventional data sources are not immediately available. |
| Date: | 2022–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10004&r= |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ancheta, Jenica |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the capacities of agrarian reform beneficiary organizations (ARBOs) to participate in value chains using data from three pilot areas in Mindanao of the Project Convergence on Value Chain Enhancement for Rural Growth and Empowerment project of the Department of Agrarian Reform. The study found low levels of organizational maturity and weak alliances among farmer organizations in the country. Thus, small farmers’ participation in higher value chains has been limited, with only members of matured organizations benefitting from value chain initiatives. To capacitate farmer organizations, the study recommends that the government pool its resources and efforts and develop strategic capacity-building interventions. Achieving organizational maturity requires farmer members to commit to their ARBO through equity participation. Alternative ownership rights structure may also be considered to encourage members—both commercial and subsistence farmers—to participate and invest in cooperatives. Another strategy is to enable farmer organizations to establish enterprises that will generate income for their members. Lastly, it is also important for organizations to strengthen social relations through regular meetings, collective activities, and patronage incentives to build trust among members. |
| Keywords: | value chain; agrarian reform; agriculture; agrarian reform beneficiary organization; ARBOs; farmer organization |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2021-09&r= |
| By: | Behrer,Arnold Patrick; Wang,Sherrie |
| Abstract: | Wildfires throughout western North America produce smoke plumes that can stretch across theagricultural regions of the American Midwest. Climate change is likely to increase the number and size of these fires andsubsequent smoke plumes. These smoke plumes change direct, diffuse, and total sunlight during the crop growing seasonand consequently influence yields of both corn and soybeans. The analysis in this paper uses a twelve-year panel ofcounty-level yields from all counties east of the 100th meridian combined with measures of exposure to smoke plumesof low and high density during the growing season. It shows that low-density plumes enhance yields, likely by increasingin the fraction of diffuse light, while high-density plumes decrease yields. Because there are more low-density plumestoday, the net effect is a slight increase in yields on average. As climate change makes wildfires larger and morefrequent, the overall impact of smoke on yields is expected to be substantially more negative. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change and Environment,Climate Change and Health,Science of Climate Change,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Climate Change and Agriculture,Brown Issues and Health,Pollution Management & Control,Air Quality & Clean Air,Social Aspects of Climate Change,Climate Change Impacts |
| Date: | 2022–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9953&r= |
| By: | Hasanbasri,Ardina Roosiany; Kilic,Talip; Koolwal,Gayatri B.; Moylan,Heather G. |
| Abstract: | Across Sub-Saharan African countries with customary tenure systems and low levels of documentedland ownership, there are limited nationally representative insights on men and women landowners’ rights over land.Variations in institutions and norms governing land ownership further complicate cross-country comparisons.Using machine learning techniques and nationally representative, intrahousehold survey data elicited inprivate from men and women on their ownership of assets, this paper creates unique profiles of landowners inEthiopia, Malawi, and Tanzania, anchored in a range of constructs related to self-reported rights and control overland parcels. The analysis reveals a high degree of cross-country consistency in the new insights. Landowners,particularly women, often do not have full rights and decision-making power over land. Multiple correspondenceanalysis demonstrates that transfer rights (rights to bequeath, sell, rent out, and use as collateral) contributethe most to the variation in the composition of the constructs related to rights and control over land.Hierarchical clustering shows that landowners can effectively be clustered into three categories: (1) ownerswith mostly exclusive transfer rights, (2) owners with mostly joint transfer rights, and (3) owners with no/limitedtransfer rights. Owners with transfer rights tend to have all other rights and measures of control. Women areoverrepresented in the cluster of landowners with no/limited transfer rights, and in moving from the cluster with mostlyjoint transfer rights to the one with mostly exclusive transfer rights, the increase in the share of individualsnot needing permission to exercise any right is considerably greater among women than men. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Economics,Gender and Development,Inequality,Food Security,Labor & Employment Law |
| Date: | 2022–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9900&r= |
| By: | Andrea Pufahl; Wolfgang Roggendorf |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa181:327309&r= |
| By: | Thapa,Dikshya; Farid,Muhammad Noor; Prevost,Christophe |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to a long-standing debate in development practice: Under whatconditions can externally established participatory groups engage in the collective management of services beyond thelife of a project Using 10 years of panel data on water point functionality from Indonesia’s rural water program,the Program for Community-Based Water Supply and Sanitation, the paper explores the determinants of subnational variationin infrastructure sustainability. It then investigates positive and negative deviance cases to answer why somecommunities have successfully engaged in system management despite being located in difficult conditions as perquantitative findings and vice versa. The findings show that differences in the implementation of communityparticipation, driven by local social relations between frontline service providers, that is, village authoritiesand water user groups, explain sustainable management. This initial condition of state-society relations influences howthe project is initiated, kicking off negative or positive reinforcing pathways, leading to community collective actionor exit. The paper concludes that the relationships between frontline government representatives and community actorsare an important and underexamined aspect of the ability of external projects to generate successful community-ledmanagement of public goods. |
| Keywords: | Hydrology,Small Private Water Supply Providers,Water Supply and Sanitation Economics,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water and Human Health,Water and Food Supply,Energy Policies & Economics,Regional Governance,Social Accountability,Local Government |
| Date: | 2021–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9798&r= |
| By: | Leonhard Lades; Federica Nova (Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland and UCD Geary Institute for Public Policy) |
| Abstract: | Behaviourally informed interventions such as nudges are increasingly used to encourage sustainable and often meat-free diets. These interventions are motivated by concerns about peoples health, animal welfare, and the environmental degradation linked to meat consumption. However, dietary choices are very personal and often of cultural importance, and behavioural interventions have been criticized, for example, for being paternalistic, manipulative, and not respecting people's autonomy. Applying the FORGOOD ethics framework, this paper organises diverse ethical arguments in favour and against using behavioural interventions to reduce meat consumption. We present a systematic high-level discussion on the ethics of influencing peoples diets and suggest that choice architects should reflect on ethical implications when designing, and before implementing, behavioural interventions to reduce meat consumption. |
| Keywords: | Meat Consumption; Sustainable Diets; Nudge; Libertarian Paternalism; Ethics; FORGOOD |
| JEL: | F18 H23 P48 Q00 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202209&r= |
| By: | Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir |
| Abstract: | In Central Asia, community water governance institutions emerged and prevailed for a long time. By employing an analytical modelling approach using variants of the evolutionary Hawk-Dove game, we scrutinise three epochs' (pre-Tsarist, Tsarist and Soviet) coordination mechanisms and qualitatively compare them in the efficiency spectrum. We find that the pre-Tsarist community water governance setting, due to its synergetic and pluralistic aspects, was associated with higher efficiency than the Tsarist and Soviet periods' settings. The pre-Tsarist community arrangement linked irrigation duties with benefits. Our analytical model reveals how the Tsarist Russian regulation that replaced the election-sanctioning element with a de-facto system appointing the irrigation staff and paying them fixed wages corrupted the well-established pre-Tsarist decentralised water governance. We term this move the "Kaufman drift". Resulting inadequacies in the water governance could have been averted either by restoring the community mechanism's election-sanctioning attribute or else with an alternative approach such as privatising water resources. With the use of the "Krivoshein game," we produce an alternative scenario for the region where we envisage the potential consequences of the water privatisation. Modelling history might not disentangle the complex nature of water governance evolution fully, however, the heuristics we use in the analysis assist in guiding the diagnosis of the matter and its solution. This makes our study well-timed for contemporary Central Asia. The analyses assess current water management's chances to return to ancient principles of election-sanctioning and perspectives of private irrigation water rights. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:327298&r= |
| By: | Himelein,Kristen |
| Abstract: | Food purchased and consumed away from home is a growing share of household expenditure indeveloping countries. Therefore, measuring the monetary value and estimating the caloric equivalent of these mealsare increasingly important for the accurate calculation of a cost-of-basic-needs poverty line. The standard approach usesthe per-calorie cost of the food consumed at home to estimate the caloric equivalent of food purchased andconsumed away from home, but it does not include an allowance for the overhead or profit of the food seller.This paper retains the assumption of equal composition in the food baskets consumed inside and outside the home anduses data from a consumption experiment in the Marshall Islands to estimate a “multiplier” to increase theper-calorie cost to allow for these expenses. The methodology generates reasonable estimates of meal-specificand overall multipliers. Although the impact of their application is minimal in this case, it may be larger incontexts with higher shares of food purchased and consumed away from home in total consumption. |
| Date: | 2022–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10018&r= |
| By: | Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | We study how precipitation has affected food consumer price inflation (CPI), using dynamic panel estimation of food CPI Phillips curves across countries for 34 OECD member and candidate economies from 1985 to 2010 augmented with climate variables. We allow for nonlinear effects of precipitation on food CPI inflation, and also control for possible nonlinear effects of temperature. We find that precipitation has significant nonlinear effects on food CPI inflation. The coefficient of food CPI inflation on the linear precipitation term is significantly negative, and the coefficient on the quadratic precipitation term is significantly positive. Consequently, food CPI inflation increases as precipitation becomes very low and very high. Moreover, we find that temperature has no additional explanatory power for food CPI inflation over and above that of precipitation. We control for the effects of inflation expectations, the output gap and exchange rate changes on food CPI inflation, which are significant with the expected signs. |
| Keywords: | climate change, precipitation, temperature, inflation, food prices |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9961&r= |
| By: | Nicole Figueiredo (IPC-IG) |
| Keywords: | school feeding; social protection; food assistance; Mexico; Desayunos Escolares |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:pbrief:81&r= |
| By: | Flores,Fernanda Martínez; Milusheva,Svetoslava Petkova; Reichert,Arndt Rudiger |
| Abstract: | Migration is one of the channels West African populations can use to adjust to the negative impacts of climate change. Using novel geo-referenced and high- frequency data, this study investigates the extent to which soil moisture anomalies drive international migration decisions within the region and toward Europe. The findings show that drier soil conditions decrease (rather than increase) the probability to migrate. A standard deviation decrease in soil moisture leads to a 2 percentage point drop in the probability to migrate, equivalent to a 25 percent decrease in the number of migrants. This effect is concentrated during the crop-growing season and likely driven by financial constraints. The effect is only seen for areas that are in the middle of the income distribution, with no impact on the poorest or richest areas of a country, suggesting that the former were constrained to start and the latter can address those financial constraints. |
| Keywords: | Crops and Crop Management Systems,Climate Change and Agriculture,Natural Disasters,Inequality,Climate Change and Environment,Climate Change and Health,Science of Climate Change,Food Security |
| Date: | 2021–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9664&r= |
| By: | Dimova, Ralitza (University of Manchester); Abou, Edouard Pokou (Jean Lorougnon Guede University); Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Viennet, Romane (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Is the impact of women's bargaining power on the welfare of the household always positive? We address this question by developing a novel experimental measure of bargaining power over family expenditures in Ivory Coast and studying its determinants. We find that men prioritise food expenditures, women prioritise the transfers to parents and the two of them show similar revealed preferences with respect to educational expenditures. The bargaining power of the woman over the three categories of expenditures of interest is correlated with the education of the wife, the income of the husband and the bride price. The results contribute to the debate on the superior concern of the woman about child welfare and could have interesting policy implications. |
| Keywords: | bargaining power, public goods games, revealed preferences, Côte d'Ivoire |
| JEL: | C93 J43 O55 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15583&r= |
| By: | Lugo,Maria Ana; Niu,Chiyu; Yemtsov,Ruslan G. |
| Abstract: | Rural poverty in China fell from 96 percent in 1980 to less than 1 percent of the population in2019. Using PovcalNet data for China and a set of comparable countries, this paper estimates growth-poverty elasticities.It finds that China stands out for its record of sustained, fast growth, rather than because of an unusually highgrowth-poverty elasticity. In addition, changes in mean consumption, rather than changes in the distribution, drivepoverty reduction. Furthermore, until 2010, changes in inequality attenuated the impact of growth on poverty. Thepaper also studies which channels mattered the most for rural poverty reduction by applying a decompositionframework to multiple rounds of Chinese Household Income Project surveys conducted in 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2013,and 2018. The findings show that broad-based, labor-intensive growth in agriculture was initially the maindriving force for rural poverty reduction, followed by the expansion of non-agriculture sectors. As the country’spoverty rate approached 10 percent by 2007, transfers from migrant workers and, later, public transfers became themajor drivers of further rural poverty reduction. Throughout the period, the fall in the demographic dependency rate alsoplayed a significant role. As China’s living standards continue to rise, the official definition of poverty willhave to adjust to the higher minimum. Continued structural transformation and the inclusive growth agenda retaincrucial importance for sustained poverty reduction. |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9849&r= |
| By: | Schneider,Kate; Christiaensen,Luc; Webb,Patrick J.; Masters,William Alan |
| Abstract: | The affordability of nutritious diets is increasingly used as a metric of how well a food systemprovides access to nutritious diets for all. Recent work on least-cost diets has focused on individuals, while most foodand anti-poverty programs and policies target the household level. Members within households have differing nutritionalneeds, presenting the methodological question: how should the cost of nutritious diets be estimated at the householdlevel This study develops bounds on the cost, affordability, and seasonal variation of least-cost diets for wholehouseholds, illustrated with the example of Malawi. When intrahousehold sharing is not possible to observe, thebounded approach provides insights into the range of the cost and affordability, and the extent to which the cost mayvary seasonally. The results reveal that when meals are shared, ignoring demographic diversity within householdsgreatly underestimates the affordability of adequate diets. |
| Keywords: | Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Inequality,Early Child and Children's Health,Nutrition,Reproductive Health,Pharmaceuticals Industry,Pharmaceuticals & Pharmacoeconomics |
| Date: | 2021–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9834&r= |
| By: | Panagiotpu, Dimitrios; Stavrakoudis, Athanassios |
| Abstract: | The goal of this study is to assess the strength and mode of price dependence by time scale, among the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Spain and Greece. These three Mediterranean countries are responsible for 95\% of olive oil production within the European Union and they account for more than 50\% of the olive oil exports worldwide. For the empirical analysis, monthly prices from the aforementioned countries are utilized along with the tools of discrete wavelets and nonparametric copulas. Results indicate that: (a) Price linkages in the short-run are significantly different from those in the longer-run, with price dependence being stronger in the longer-run, and (b) in the very long run, price shocks of the same sign but of different magnitude are transmitted from Italy to Spain with a higher probability than they are transmitted from Italy to Greece. Accordingly, the time scale affects the intensity as well as the pattern of dependence, pointing this way to asymmetric price co-movement. Regarding the integration of the three markets, the finding of asymmetric co-movement is not consistent with well-integrated markets. |
| Keywords: | Wavelets; Copulas; Extra virgin olive oil; Price dependence. |
| JEL: | C14 L66 O13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114656&r= |
| By: | Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes |
| Abstract: | The traditional consumer price index is often produced at an aggregate level, using data fromfew, highly urbanized, areas. As such, it poorly describes price trends in rural or poverty-stricken areas, where largepopulations may reside in fragile situations. Traditional price data collection also follows a deliberate sampling andmeasurement process that is not well suited for monitoring during crisis situations, when price stability maydeteriorate rapidly. To gain real-time insights beyond what can be formally measured by traditional methods, this paperdevelops a machine-learning approach for imputation of ongoing subnational price surveys. The aim is to monitorinflation at the market level, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. The capabilities arehighlighted using World Food Programme surveys in 25 fragile and conflict-affected countries where real-time monthly foodprice data are not publicly available from official sources. The results are made available as a data set that coversmore than 1200 markets and 43 food types. The local statistics provide a new granular view on importantinflation events, including the World Food Price Crisis of 2007–08 and the surge in global inflation following the 2020pandemic. The paper finds that imputations often achieve accuracy similar to direct measurement of prices. Theestimates may provide new opportunities to investigate local price dynamics in markets where prices are sensitive tolocalized shocks and traditional data are not available. |
| Keywords: | Inflation,Nutrition,Food Security,Inequality,International Trade and Trade Rules |
| Date: | 2021–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9886&r= |
| By: | Ridolfo, Heather; Biagas Jr, David; Abayomi, Emilola J; Rodhouse, Joseph |
| Abstract: | In 2018, new wage questions were proposed to be added to the Agricultural Labor Survey. In addition, several changes were made to the revised computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) script based on previous research. To evaluate the addition of the new wage questions and revisions to the CATI script, a field test was conducted using the original Agricultural Labor Survey and a revised version. Behavior coding was conducted on a subset of the interviews conducted in NASS telephone data collection centers. The purpose of this behavior coding was to compare interviewers’ administration of the original Agricultural Labor CATI instrument and the revised instrument. Results showed that neither of the instruments was administered appropriately at an acceptable rate. Additionally, the new wages questions were often administered with major changes or not at all. These findings indicate a need for additional enumerator training and a review of the Agricultural Labor CATI instruments. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:unasrr:327242&r= |
| By: | Baffes,John,Kabundi,Alain Ntumba |
| Abstract: | The prices of 27 internationally traded commodities are decomposed into transitory and permanent shocks by applying an ideal band-pass filter to monthly data from 1970–2020. The two types of shocks contributed roughly equally to price variations, but with wide heterogeneity. Permanent shocks ac-counted for two-thirds of the variability in agricultural prices but less than 30 percent in energy prices. The transitory shock component revealed three medium-term cycles. The first (from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s) and third (from the early 2000s to 2020 onward) exhibit similar duration and involve almost all commodities, while the second (spanning the 1990s) is mostly applicable to metals, with the notable absence of energy. The permanent shock components differ across commodities, with an up-ward trend for most industrial commodities and downward trend for agriculture. Moreover, the permanent component of commodity prices where investment is irreversible, including energy, metals, and tree crops, exhibits a high degree of nonlinearities, which also coincide with the two post–World War II supercycles. By contrast, the permanent component of annual agricultural prices is linear, reflecting greater flexibility in investment allocation and input use of these commodities. Prices of commodities subjected to widespread policy interventions, such as international commodity agreements, exhibit persistent deviations from linear trends. |
| Keywords: | Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Commodity Risk Management,Food Security,International Trade and Trade Rules,Trade and Multilateral Issues |
| Date: | 2021–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9792&r= |
| By: | Lucas Sato (IPC-IG); Nourjelha Mohamed (IPC-IG) |
| Keywords: | social insurance; social protection; agricultural workers; MENA |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:80&r= |
| By: | Henning Schaak (SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Jens Rommel (SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Julian Sagebiel (iDiv - German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research); Jesus Barreiro-Hurlé (JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Seville]); Douadia Bougherara (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Luigi Cemablo (University of Naples Federico II); Marija Cerjak (UNIZG - Faculty of Agriculture [Zagreb] - University of Zagreb); Tajana Čop (UNIZG - Faculty of Agriculture [Zagreb] - University of Zagreb); Mikołaj Czajkowski (UW - University of Warsaw); María Espinosa-Goded (University of Sevilla); Julia Höhler (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Carl-Johan Lagerkvist (SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Macario Rodriguez-Entrena (Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]); Annika Tensi (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Sophie Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Marina Tomić Maksan (UNIZG - Faculty of Agriculture [Zagreb] - University of Zagreb); Riccardo Vecchio (University of Naples Federico II); Katarzyna Zagórska (UW - University of Warsaw) |
| Date: | 2022–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03738351&r= |
| By: | Albert Kwame Osei-Owusu; Michael Danquah; Edgar Towa |
| Abstract: | This paper applies an environmentally extended input-output analysis, leveraging the Eora database, to estimate the global raw material footprints of 51 African nations from 1995 to 2015. It employs least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and panel regression models to quantify the effects of diverse variables on Africa's raw material footprints. The findings show that the raw material footprints of Africa's production and consumption soared by 41 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, from 1995 to 2015, mainly driven by biomass and construction materials. |
| Keywords: | Ecological footprint, Input–output, Raw materials, Africa, environmental impact, Regression analysis |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-115&r= |
| By: | Roberto Esposti (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interdependence among commodity prices. Commodities belonging to three different groups (energy commodities, metals, agricultural commodities) are considered. The analysis is performed via a battery of time-varying Granger causality tests. They allow assessing whether price interdependence occurs and to identify the candidate first movers. These tests also allow observing how long and in which sub-periods these causality relationships occur. The approach is applied to the monthly prices of eleven commodities over the 1980-2021 period. Results suggest that interdependence is weak for energy and agricultural commodities and often concerns limited time periods, while it seems stronger and longer lasting among metals. Moreover, if an overall price driver has to be identified, agricultural commodities more than oil seem to be the best candidates. |
| Keywords: | Commodity Prices, Time Varying Granger Causality, Price Interdependence. |
| JEL: | Q11 C32 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:471&r= |