nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2022‒10‒31
forty-six papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. Future Foodscapes By Michael Morris; Ashwini Rekha Sebastian; Viviana Maria Eugenia Perego
  2. Economic and Food Security Impacts of Agricultural Input Reduction Under the European Union Green Deal’s Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies By Beckman, Jayson; Ivanic, Maros; Jelliffe, Jeremy L; Baquedano, Felix G; Scott, Sara G
  3. Securing Forest Tenure Rights for Rural Development By World Bank
  4. Integrating Venezuelan Migrants in Colombia’s Agri-Food Sector By Ashwini Rekha Sebastian; Viviana Maria Eugenia Perego; Juan Carlos Munoz Mora
  5. Sustainable Lowland Agriculture Development in Indonesia By World Bank
  6. Is Dirt Cheap ? The Economic Costs of Failing to Meet Soil Health Requirements onSmallholder Farms By Gourlay,Sydney; Kilic,Talip
  7. Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in PNG By Kosec, Katrina; Schmidt, Emily; Carrillo, Lucia; Fang, Peixun; Ivekolia, Mark; Ovah, Raywin
  8. Managing Pesticides for Greener Growth in Lao PDR By World Bank
  9. Aligning agricultural and rural development policies in the context of structural change By Dalila Cervantes-Godoy
  10. Improving Governance of Indonesia's Peatlands and Other Lowland Ecosystems By World Bank
  11. Satellite Monitoring for Forest Management By World Bank
  12. Russian market power in international wheat trade and implications for global food security By Uhl, Kerstin Marit
  13. Oceans for Prosperity By World Bank
  14. Incentivizing Social Learning for the Diffusion of Climate-Smart Agricultural Techniques By Adjognon,Guigonan Serge; Nguyen Huy,Tung; Guthoff,Jonas Christoph; van Soest,Daan
  15. It takes two to tango: combining asset specificity and uncertainty to explain the diversity of plural forms By Paula Sarita Bigio Schnaider; Maria Sylvia Macchione Saes; Emmanuel Raynaud
  16. Two Heads Are Better Than One : Agricultural Production and Investment in Côte d’Ivoire By Donald,Aletheia Amalia; Goldstein,Markus P.; Rouanet,Lea Marie
  17. Aging population and agricultural sustainability issues: case of Turkey By Şinasi Akdemir; Elpidio Kougnigan; Fersin Keskin; Handan Vuruş Akçaöz; İsmet Boz; İlkay Kutlar; Yann Emmanuel Sonagnon Miassi; Güsel Küsek; Metin Türker
  18. Russia-Ukraine war and the global crisis: Impacts on poverty and food security in developing countries By Arndt, Channing; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
  19. Beyond reducing deforestation: impacts of conservation programs on household livelihoods By Gabriela Demarchi; Caue D Carrilho; Thibault Catry; Stibniati Atmadja; Julie Subervie
  20. A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change By Richard S.J. Tol
  21. See it grow: Monitoring the use of stress-tolerant varieties and seed performance By Wellenstein, Hailey; Kramer, Berber
  22. Healthy and Sustainable Diets in Bangladesh By Mehra,Divya; Tong,Junying; Dizon,Felipe Jr Fadullon; De Pee,Saskia
  23. Agricultural Productivity in Burkina Faso: The Role of Gender and Risk Attitudes By Sepahvand, Mohammad H.
  24. 2022 Global food report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions: Mid-year update By Vos, Rob; Rice, Brendan; Minot, Nicholas
  25. Landowners’ willingness to accept pesticide reduction in the Pipiripau River Basin (Brazil) By Leidimari Neves Do Prado; Jens Abildtrup
  26. Should the Food Insecurity Experience Scale Crowd Out Other Food Access Measures ?Evidence from Nigeria By Lain,Jonathan William; Tandon,Sharad Alan; Vishwanath,Tara
  27. Assessment of Long-term Finance Providers for Small and Medium Agribusinesses By World Bank Group
  28. How Brexit has raised UK food prices By Jan David Bakker; Nikhil Datta; Josh De Lyon; Luisa Opitz; Dilan Yang
  29. From Necessity to Opportunity : Lessons for Integrating Phone and In-Person Data Collectionfor Agricultural Statistics in a Post-Pandemic World By Zezza,Alberto; Mcgee,Kevin Robert; Wollburg,Philip Randolph; Assefa,Thomas Woldu; Gourlay,Sydney
  30. Non-Labor Input Quality and Small Farms in Sub-Saharan Africa : A Review By Michelson,Hope Carolyn; Gourlay,Sydney; Wollburg,Philip Randolph
  31. Estimating Local Agricultural GDP across the World By Blankespoor,Brian; Ru,Yating; Wood-Sichra,Ulrike; Chambers,Thomas Timothy; You,Liangzhi; Kalvelagen,Erwin
  32. The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Shocks in Thailand By Chaitat Jirophat; Pym Manopimoke; Suparit Suwanik
  33. With big data come big problems: pitfalls in measuring basis risk for crop index insurance By Matthieu Stigler; Apratim Dey; Andrew Hobbs; David Lobell
  34. Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local andGlobal Food Security By Deininger,Klaus W.; Ali,Daniel Ayalew; Kussul,Nataliia; Shelestov,Andrii Yu; Lemoine,Guido; Yailimova,Hanna
  35. Equilibrium Effects of Food Labeling Policies By Barahona, Nano; Otero, Cristobal; Otero, Sebastian
  36. Geography, Institutions, and Global Cropland Dynamics By Park,Hogeun; Selod,Harris; Murray,Siobhan; Chellaraj,Gnanaraj
  37. Irrigation Organizations: Drought Planning and Response By Wallander, Steven; Hrozencik, Aaron; Aillery, Marcel
  38. Do Index Insurance Programs Live Up to Their Promises ? Aggregating Evidence from Multiple Experiments By Castaing,Pauline; Gazeaud,Jules
  39. Irrigation Organizations: Water Storage and Delivery Infrastructure By Hrozencik, Aaron; Wallander, Steven; Aillery, Marcel
  40. The Big Expansion of Rural Secondary Schooling during the Cultural Revolution and The Returns to Education in Rural China By Terry Sicular; Mengbing Zhu
  41. Measuring Land Tenure at the Individual Level : Lessons from Methodological Research in Armenia By Gourlay,Sydney; Maggio,Giuseppe; Safyan,Anahit; Zezza,Alberto
  42. Spatial Structural Change By Fabian Eckert; Michael Peters
  43. The impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate: A review By Felbermayr, Gabriel; Peterson, Sonja; Wanner, Joschka
  44. Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services By Haleh Kootval; Alice Soares
  45. Spatial Finance By World Bank; WWF
  46. Mapping global hotspots and trends of water quality (1992-2010): a data driven approach By Sebastien Desbureaux; Frederic Mortier; Esha Zaveri; Michelle van Vliet; Jason Russ; Sophie Aude; Richard Damania

  1. By: Michael Morris; Ashwini Rekha Sebastian; Viviana Maria Eugenia Perego
    Keywords: Agriculture - Agricultural Extension Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Agriculture - Food Markets Agriculture - Food Security
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: Beckman, Jayson; Ivanic, Maros; Jelliffe, Jeremy L; Baquedano, Felix G; Scott, Sara G
    Abstract: The European Commission has proposed strategies that would impose restrictions on EU agriculture through targeted reductions in the use of land, antimicrobials, fertilizers, and pesticides. We perform a range of policy simulations to examine the economic implications of several of the proposed targets, finding reduction in global agriculture production, higher prices, less trade, and more global food insecurity.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2020–11
  3. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Forestry Management Communities and Human Settlements - Land Administration Environment - Forests and Forestry Rural Development - Agricultural Growth and Rural Development
    Date: 2020–11
  4. By: Ashwini Rekha Sebastian; Viviana Maria Eugenia Perego; Juan Carlos Munoz Mora
    Keywords: Agriculture - Agribusiness Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Agriculture - Food Markets Conflict and Development - Conflict and Fragile States Poverty Reduction - Migration and Development Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Agriculture - Crops & Crop Management Systems Agriculture - Forestry Management Environment - Ecosystems and Natural Habitats Environment - Forests and Forestry Environment - Sustainable Land Management
    Date: 2021–02
  6. By: Gourlay,Sydney; Kilic,Talip
    Abstract: Agricultural productivity is hindered in smallholder farming systems due to several factors,including farmers’ inability to meet crop-specific soil requirements. This paper focuses on soil suitability formaize production and creates multidimensional soil suitability profiles of smallholder maize plots in Uganda,while quantifying forgone production due to cultivation on less-than-suitable land and identifying groups of farmersthat are disproportionately impacted. The analysis leverages the unique socioeconomic data from a subnational surveyconducted in Eastern Uganda, inclusive of plot-level, objective measures of maize yields and soil attributes.Stochastic frontier models of maize yields are estimated within each soil suitability class to understand differencesin returns to inputs, technical efficiency, and potential yield. Only 13 percent of farmers are cultivating soil thatis highly suitable for maize production, while the vast majority are cultivating only moderately suitable plots.Farmers cultivating highly suitable soil have the potential to increase their observed yields by as much as 86 percent,while those at the opposite end of the suitability distribution (with marginally suitable land) operate closerto the production frontier and can only increase yields by up to 59 percent, given the current technology set. There isheterogeneity in potential gains across the wealth distribution, with poorer households facing more heavilyconstrained potential. Assuming no change in technologies and management practices used by Ugandan farmers, there arelimited economic gains tied to closing suitability class-specific productivity gaps, or even at the extremereaching the average potential productivity levels observed in the high suitability class.
    Date: 2022–06–27
  7. By: Kosec, Katrina; Schmidt, Emily; Carrillo, Lucia; Fang, Peixun; Ivekolia, Mark; Ovah, Raywin
    Abstract: The welfare of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) population depends on domestic agriculture productivity and stability. As of 2019, value-added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors totaled approximately 17 percent of GDP. However, when considering the downstream value chain activities directly related to the agriculture sector (e.g., agriculture processing, domestic food trade and transportation, and domestic food commodity sales), the larger agri-food system in PNG contributes over 25 percent to the country’s overall GDP (Pradesha and Dorosh, 2022). Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction within the country. Growing a globally competitive agriculture sector also demands investments and capacity strengthening in mid-stream value chain operations such as product aggregation, transport logistics, packaging and processing, and handling. It is important that these investments also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. Previous research suggests that where women are economically empowered and have access to decent jobs in lucrative nodes (i.e., activities) of value chains, households have higher incomes and are less likely to be poor (FAO, 2011). In PNG, despite women’s greater share of employment in agriculture (60 and 52 percent of women and men work in agriculture, respectively), women participate less in higher-value agricultural production and trade activities (Chang et al., 2016; Omot, Chambers, and Spriggs, 2013; World Bank, 2022).
    Keywords: PAPUA NEW GUINEA, OCEANIA, value chains, agriculture, agricultural value chains, gender, inclusion, agricultural value chains, women's participation, poultry, sweet potatoes, vegetables, women's empowerment
    Date: 2022
  8. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Agriculture - Food Security Agriculture - Pest Management Environment - Environmental Protection Environment - Persistent Organic Pollutants
    Date: 2021–03
  9. By: Dalila Cervantes-Godoy
    Abstract: The economic importance and level of employment in agriculture are declining in many rural regions. There are many reasons for this, including demographic changes, deeper urban-rural linkages, technological advances, growing urbanisation, and land use change. To successfully accompany this structural change, agricultural and rural development policies must be coherent. This requires an improved understanding of areas of complementarity and trade-offs between these policies to ensure better integration and to avoid overlaps. Areas of complementarity include rural policies with transferable benefits for agriculture, such as investments in rural infrastructure, digital connectivity, health care, and other public services. With respect to agricultural policies, these complementarities exist with policies that have wider rural benefits, such as investments in agricultural innovation systems, improvements in extension services, and land and water management policies. As the transition towards a diversified low carbon rural economy continues, additional synergies could be developed between agriculture and rural policies.
    Keywords: Agricultural policy, Policy complementarity, Rural policy
    JEL: Q15 Q18 R11 R50 Q16
    Date: 2022–10–24
  10. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Agriculture - Crops & Crop Management Systems Agriculture - Forestry Management Environment - Ecosystems and Natural Habitats Environment - Forests and Forestry Environment - Sustainable Land Management
    Date: 2021–02
  11. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Agriculture - Forestry Management Environment - Drylands & Desertification Environment - Environmental Protection Environment - Forests and Forestry Environment - Natural Resources Management Environment - Sustainable Land Management
    Date: 2020–12
  12. By: Uhl, Kerstin Marit
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2021
  13. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Agriculture - Fisheries & Aquaculture Environment - Coastal and Marine Environment Environment - Ecosystems and Natural Habitats Environment - Marine Environment Water Resources - Coastal and Marine Resources Water Resources - Oceans
    Date: 2021–03
  14. By: Adjognon,Guigonan Serge; Nguyen Huy,Tung; Guthoff,Jonas Christoph; van Soest,Daan
    Abstract: Unsustainable land use is a key threat to both economic development and environmentalconservation in developing countries. This study implemented a randomized controlled trial in arid Burkina Faso to testthe effectiveness of financial incentives in stimulating the adoption of sustainable land management practices (SLMPs).It did so in the context of a so-called cascade training program, in which some farmers were trained in theimplementation of sustainable land management practices, who were then asked to disseminate their newly acquiredknowledge and expertise to other farmers in their social networks. The study finds that offering payments conditionalon adoption improves both the transfer of information from the trained to the peer farmers, as well as the peerfarmers' sustainable land management practices adoption rates. Offering financial incentives thus mitigates two ofthe most important barriers to the adoption of sustainable land management practices – the (perceived) lack of privatebenefits and insufficient diffusion of the technical implementation information from the trained farmers to theirpeers. Finally, the study documents that adoption of sustainable land management practices generates substantialincreases in crop productivity and agricultural income already after one agricultural cycle.
    Date: 2022–05–11
  15. By: Paula Sarita Bigio Schnaider (USP - University of São Paulo); Maria Sylvia Macchione Saes (USP - University of São Paulo); Emmanuel Raynaud (SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: In this paper, we rely on an extended version of the traditional transaction cost economics (TCE) framework to explain the variety of plural forms in the governance of food supply chains. Relying on the interplay of two transactional attributes – asset specificity and uncertainty – we explore not only the existence of plural forms, but their empirical diversity. This aspect has been largely under-explored and very little has been done empirically so far in this respect, despite its empirical significance. From an organizational point of view, this diversity requires an explanation as they carry different governance properties. We propose that while both are important drivers for the prevalence of plural forms, each of them plays a different role in their composition. Whereas uncertainty determines the type of plural form, asset specificity determines the level of coordination within the plural form and sheds light in the relative weights of each organizational arrangement composing it. An embedded case study of the Korin firm in Brazil, a leading firm in the organic food market, illustrates.
    Keywords: asset specificit,yuncertainty,food supply chains,governance,plural forms,transaction costs
    Date: 2022–02–28
  16. By: Donald,Aletheia Amalia; Goldstein,Markus P.; Rouanet,Lea Marie
    Abstract: Low levels of agricultural productivity and investment hinder economic growth indeveloping countries. This paper presents results from a field experiment in Côte d'Ivoire, which randomizedwives’ participation in an agricultural extension training for rubber, a male-dominated export crop that takes sixyears to start producing latex but requires upfront care. The training included a planning portion, consisting offilling out an action plan for rubber farming over the next two years, and a skills portion. In the without-wife group,households witnessed a 26.4 percent drop in the value of the crop harvested and a 18.4 percent drop in productivity, withlabor going to planting rubber seedlings. In the group with wife participation, households had higher levels ofinvestment (planting 20 percent more rubber seedlings) and were able to maintain pre-program levels of agriculturalproduction on older trees and other crops. These householdsincreased their labor hours and agricultural input use, resulting in no drop in overall production or productivity.This outcome did not come through increased skills or incentives. Rather, underlying these results are increasesin planned agricultural management by wives, increased retention of the action plan, and a reduction in genderedtask division. The results show how including women in economic planning can improve the efficiency of householdfarm production and promote higher levels of investment.
    Date: 2022–05–16
  17. By: Şinasi Akdemir (Cukurova University); Elpidio Kougnigan (Cukurova University); Fersin Keskin; Handan Vuruş Akçaöz (Akdeniz University); İsmet Boz; İlkay Kutlar (Akdeniz University); Yann Emmanuel Sonagnon Miassi (Cukurova University); Güsel Küsek; Metin Türker
    Abstract: Agriculture is a sector that is widely known to be impacted not only by the natural conditions of a country but also by other economic and political sectors. Turkish agriculture, in a context marked in recent years by a rural exodus of young people, marks the vagueness of the current state of the agricultural sector and its future. It is with this in mind that this research was carried out, based on a questionnaire survey of 312 producers in 5 provinces of Turkey, to assess the impact of the ageing of the rural population on the agricultural sector. The results of this study show that with age, producers invest less in agricultural activity, altogether abandoning productions requiring more labour. The possibility of taking over the family farm by descendants plays an important role in the degree of involvement of producers. Through these findings, this study makes it possible to address targeted agricultural policies according to age stages.
    Keywords: Aging farming population,Farm succession,Impact,Farming sustainability,Turkey
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Arndt, Channing; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the increase occurring since February (Figure 1). Wide variation exists across products, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent and rice prices declining by 13 percent. The price of crude oil and natural gas has also risen substantially, while the weighted average price of fertilizer has doubled. With these changes in global prices, many developing countries and their development partners are concerned about the implications for economic stability, food security, and poverty.
    Keywords: PHILIPPINES, SOUTH EAST ASIA, ASIA, Ukraine, poverty, food security, armed conflicts, crises, prices, shock, agrifood systems, equality, diet, commodities, fertilizers
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Gabriela Demarchi (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Caue D Carrilho (USP - Universidade de São Paulo); Thibault Catry (UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - UG - Université de Guyane - UA - Université des Antilles - UM - Université de Montpellier); Stibniati Atmadja (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Julie Subervie (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, INSPÉ Montpellier - Mémoires - Institut national supérieur du professorat et de l'éducation - Académie de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier)
    Abstract: Understanding why forest conservation initiatives succeed or fail is essential to designing cost-effective programs at scale. In this study, we investigate direct and indirect impact mechanisms of a REDD+ project that was shown to be effective in reducing deforestation during the early years of its implementation in the Transamazon region, an area with historically high deforestation rates. Using counterfactual impact evaluation methods applied to survey and remote-sensing data, we assess the impact of the project over 2013-2019, i.e., from its first year until two years after its end. Based on the Theory of Change, we focus on land use and socioeconomic outcomes likely to have been affected by changes in deforestation brought about by the initiative. Our findings highlight that forest conservation came at the expense of pastures rather than cropland and that the project induced statistically greater agrobiodiversity on participating farms. Moreover, we find that the project encouraged the development of alternative livelihood activities that required less area for production and generated increased income. These results suggest that conservation programs, that combine payments conditional on forest conservation with technical assistance and support to farmers for the adoption of low-impact activities, can manage to slow down deforestation in the short term are likely to induce profound changes in production systems, which can be expected to have lasting effects.
    Keywords: REDD+,CO2 emissions,impact evaluation,livelihood,Brazilian Amazon
    Date: 2022–09–19
  20. By: Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, BN1 9SL Falmer, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impactof climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term.
    Keywords: climate change; weather shocks; economic growth; social cost of carbon
    JEL: O44 Q54
    Date: 2022–08
  21. By: Wellenstein, Hailey; Kramer, Berber
    Abstract: Farming is an inherently high-risk activity, and farmers’ livelihoods depend on a set of interlinked environmental factors including weather, soil conditions, disease, pests, and more. Unfortunately, globally, many of the risks in agricultural production have been exacerbated by increasingly erratic and extreme weather patterns (Porter et al. 2014). One way to mitigate such climate risk is the use of seed varieties that are bred to be resilient to the types of extreme weather that crops regularly suffer, such as drought (Cacho et al. 2020). Use of such seeds can potentially help reduce insurance premiums to more sustainable levels, as drought-tolerant varieties could help mitigate losses from moderate droughts and thus insurance would only be required to cover farmers for losses associated with more severe droughts. In this project note, we examine to what extent the use of drought-tolerant varieties is associated with improved performance in the context of a crop insurance project in Kenya. We hypothesize that crops grown from drought-tolerant varieties sustain less damage than other varieties. We test this hypothesis and extend our analysis to ask if there are phenological differences between stress-tolerant varieties (STVs) and non-STVs that would affect the period during which insurance coverage is needed. Finally, since both reduced risk exposure and phenological differences could affect insurance payouts, and thereby insurance premiums in the longer run, we examine differences in farmers’ yields and insurance payouts between the two groups.
    Keywords: KENYA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, stress, tolerance, drought tolerance, seed, agricultural insurance, crop insurance, risk
    Date: 2022
  22. By: Mehra,Divya; Tong,Junying; Dizon,Felipe Jr Fadullon; De Pee,Saskia
    Abstract: An ideal food system is envisioned to provide healthy diets for people and be sustainable for theenvironment. Such a food system is required to deliver on these goals even as diets are increasingly anddisproportionately comprised of high-fat and/or high-sugar foods vis-à-vis nutritious diets. The ideal “planetaryhealth diet,” as defined in the EAT Lancet report for several countries, presents trade-offs when contextualizedat the local level. Using Bangladesh as the case study, this paper examined the change in diets (between 2000 and 2016)and their greenhouse gas emissions over time and compared the nutritional value and environmental impact to twomodeled diets: national food-based dietary guidelines and the planetary health diet/EAT Lancet diet. The analysisfinds that despite a change of the diet toward the recommended diet, significant gaps remain from a nutritionalperspective. Moreover, meeting the dietary guidelines would increase greenhouse gas emissions by at least 10 percent.Compared to the food-based dietary guidelines, the EAT Lancet diet requires dietary patterns to change even moresignificantly and would increase greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent. The policy implications and options from theproduction and demand sides are complex and require assessing multiple trade-offs.
    Date: 2022–09–01
  23. By: Sepahvand, Mohammad H. (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: This study analyzes how risk attitudes influence the agricultural productivity of men and women in a sub-Saharan African country, Burkina Faso. By using a large representative panel survey of farmers, the results show that as female farmers increase risk taking, the productivity of female-owned plots goes down. The study controls for various socio-economic factors and explores how the diversity of the regions of the country affects gender differences. Findings show that agricultural policy interventions in Burkina Faso need to be gender sensitized when addressing issues related to credit constraints, improved inputs, and policies that support increase in productivity.
    Keywords: Risk attitudes; Gender differences; Agriculture; Productivity; Sub-Saharan Africa; Burkina Faso
    JEL: D13 D81 J16 O13 Q12 Q18
    Date: 2022–10–19
  24. By: Vos, Rob; Rice, Brendan; Minot, Nicholas
    Keywords: food security, food insecurity, food crises, nutrition, malnutrition, resilience, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, hunger, weather extremes, economic shocks
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Leidimari Neves Do Prado (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jens Abildtrup (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Brazil is the largest buyer of pesticides in the world and allows the use of chemicals that have long been banned in other countries. One in four Brazilian cities has water polluted by agrochemicals, and the poorest and most vulnerable suburban communities are considered to be suffering disproportionately from this exposure to pesticide contamination of drinking water. To increase the quantity and improve the quality of water, in 2012, the Pipiripau River Basin (PRB) was selected as the site of one of the main pilot studies in Brazil for the protection of water resources. However, the Payment for Environmental Services (PES) currently implemented in the Water Producer Programme (WPP) does not address pesticide use reduction as an environmental service. In this study, we report the result of a survey of land owners in the basin and in particular the results of a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) applied to estimate the potential Pipiripau Basin landowners' Willingness-To-Accept (WTA), compensation for reducing the use of agrochemicals on their land. This study is the first to apply a dce to analyse policies for pesticide reduction and the protection of water resources in Brazil, and there are very few studies worldwide on the topic to date. We find that the contract characteristics are important determinants of the WTA. Furthermore, farm and landowner characteristics also impact the estimated WTA, including, for example, the farm type, the current use of pesticides, and who is involved in the decision-making. We also find clear evidence that profit considerations are not the only determinant of landowners' decision to participate in a pesticide use reduction scheme.
    Date: 2022–12
  26. By: Lain,Jonathan William; Tandon,Sharad Alan; Vishwanath,Tara
    Abstract: Measurement of food access typically relies on a consensus of different indicators. However,there is a growing list of surveys in which the Food Insecurity Experience Scale is one of the few food accessindicators captured, likely because it is an official measure for tracking progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goal of zero hunger. This paper uses a nationally representative, multipurpose household surveyconducted in Nigeria to investigate the validity of the Food Insecurity Experience Scale. It compares the Food InsecurityExperience Scale to monetary poverty and a widely used food access metric that has been more extensively validated, theFood Consumption Score. Although it is possible for food access metrics to be poorly aligned and capture differentdimensions of poor food access, empirically supported assumptions in standard consumption models result in manydimensions of poor food access being concentrated among the poorest segments of the population. However, the paperdemonstrates that the Food Insecurity Experience Scale does not appear to correctly identify the population with poorfood access—it finds little difference in the share with poor food access among poor and nonpoor Nigerians. Moreover,even the very richest and very poorest households have a similar prevalence of poor food access, according to theFood Insecurity Experience Scale. These patterns are in stark contrast to the Food Consumption Score, which suggeststhat food access is significantly lower for poorer Nigerians. Combined, the results demonstrate the importanceof measuring food access with more than one indicator, and they call into question the notion of using the FoodInsecurity Experience Scale alone, despite the measure being a key Sustainable Development Goal food security indicator.
    Date: 2022–08–16
  27. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Agriculture - Agribusiness Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Rural Finance Private Sector Development - Small and Medium Size Enterprises
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Jan David Bakker; Nikhil Datta; Josh De Lyon; Luisa Opitz; Dilan Yang
    Abstract: Some products imported to the UK from the European Union have been more affected by the post-Brexit trading rules than others. Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang find that leaving the single market and customs union has led to a 6% rise in food prices in the UK.
    Keywords: UK Economy, Brexit, supply chains, trade, prices, imports, uk, eu
    Date: 2022–06–21
  29. By: Zezza,Alberto; Mcgee,Kevin Robert; Wollburg,Philip Randolph; Assefa,Thomas Woldu; Gourlay,Sydney
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted survey and data systems globally and especially in low- andmiddle-income countries. Lockdowns necessitated remote data collection as demand for data on the impacts of the pandemicsurged. Phone surveys started being implemented at a national scale in many places that previously had limitedexperience with them. As in-person data collection resumes, the experience gained provides the grounds to reflect on howphone surveys may be incorporated into survey and data systems in low- and middle-income countries. This includesagricultural and rural surveys supported by international survey programs such as the World Bank’s Living StandardsMeasurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s AGRISurvey, or the50x2030 Initiative. Reviewing evidence and experiences from before and during the pandemic, the paper analyzes andprovides guidance on the scope of and considerations for using phone surveys for agricultural data collection. Itaddresses the domains of sampling and representativeness, post-survey adjustments, questionnaire design, respondentselection and behavior, interviewer effects, as well as cost considerations, all with an emphasis on the particularitiesof agricultural and rural surveys. Ultimately, the integration of phone interviews with in-person datacollection offers a promising opportunity to leverage the benefits of phone surveys while addressing theirlimitations, including the depth of content constraints and potential coverage biases, which are especially challengingfor agricultural and rural populations in low- and middle-income countries.
    Date: 2022–09–08
  30. By: Michelson,Hope Carolyn; Gourlay,Sydney; Wollburg,Philip Randolph
    Abstract: Adoption of non-labor agricultural inputs, including pesticides and mineral fertilizers,remains low among small-scale farmers in many low-income countries. Accurate measurement of the quality of theseinputs and of quantities deployed is essential for assessing economic returns, understanding the drivers of agriculturalproductivity, and proposing and evaluating policies for increasing agricultural production. Reviewing evidenceregarding the quality of mineral fertilizers and pesticides available to small farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa, this papersummarizes four key findings. First, the available evidence on non-labor input quality to date centers mostly on ureafertilizer and glyphosate herbicide, with limited assessment of other important inputs, including multi-nutrientfertilizers. Second, the evidence shows that nitrogen shortages are exceedingly rare for urea, although qualityproblems are more common in fertilizer blends including nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium blends, as well asdiammonium phosphate, and in glyphosate herbicide. Third, although nutrient shortages in nitrogen, phosphorous, andpotassium fertilizer blends and diammonium phosphate fertilizer blends are likely attributable to problems withmanufacturing and storage, problems with available herbicides could be due to manufacturing issues,counterfeiting, or adulteration. Fourth, although farmers are broadly suspicious of the quality of mineral fertilizerand pesticides, evidence from several studies suggests that these beliefs do not reflect lab-based assessments ofquality. In light of these findings, this paper recommends best practices for evaluation of non-labor input quality andsummarizes research evaluating farmer assessment of fertilizer and pesticide quality. The paper concludes byidentifying key evidentiary gaps related to measuring non-labor agricultural input quality and use, and recommendsspecific topics for future research.
    Date: 2022–06–17
  31. By: Blankespoor,Brian; Ru,Yating; Wood-Sichra,Ulrike; Chambers,Thomas Timothy; You,Liangzhi; Kalvelagen,Erwin
    Abstract: Economic statistics are frequently produced at an administrative level such as the sub-nationaldivision. However, these measures may not adequately capture the local variation in the economic activities that isuseful for analyzing local economic development patterns and the exposure to natural disasters. Agriculture GDP is acritical indicator for measurement of the primary sector, on which 60 percent of the world’s population depends for theirlivelihoods. Through a data fusion method based on cross-entropy optimization, this paper disaggregatesnational and subnational administrative statistics of Agricultural GDP into a global gridded dataset atapproximately 10 x 10 kilometers using satellite-derived indicators of the components that make up agricultural GDP,namely crop, livestock, fishery, hunting and timber production. The paper examines the exposure of areas with atleast one extreme drought during 2000 to 2009 to agricultural GDP, where nearly 1.2 billion people live. Thefindings show an estimated US$432 billion of agricultural GDP circa 2010.
    Date: 2022–06–27
  32. By: Chaitat Jirophat; Pym Manopimoke; Suparit Suwanik
    Abstract: This paper studies the dynamic impact of climate shocks on economic activity and inflation in Thailand, a developing country susceptible to the effects of climate change. We utilize a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis that accounts for the asymmetric and nonlinear impacts of climate change. Overall, climate shocks are significantly contractionary on output whereas their effect on inflation is rather muted. For output, the impact is more pronounced on the production rather than expenditure side of the economy, although highly persistent climate shocks can have significant effects on demand. Furthermore, we find that the macroeconomic impact of climate change varies significantly across sectors of production as well as components of inflation. Raw food prices, in particular vegetables, are sensitive to climate shocks, consistent with the agricultural sector being most vulnerable, with effects that are more pronounced in the short-run. This contrasts with industrial production and service sectors that experience more persistent effects. We also find that dry versus wet weather conditions deliver varying effects on output and inflation, and we also find that the impact of climate shocks are more severe if extreme weather events are large, as well as sustained for longer periods of time. Finally, utilizing a panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), we quantify significant differences in the impact of climate shocks on aggregate output across provinces, depending on the provincial level of income as well as its proportion of output tied to agricultural activities.
    Keywords: climate shocks; Climate change; Macroeconomy; Inflation; Extremity; Nonlinearity; Sectors of production; Output
    JEL: E23 E52 O13 O53 Q56
    Date: 2022–10
  33. By: Matthieu Stigler; Apratim Dey; Andrew Hobbs; David Lobell
    Abstract: New satellite sensors will soon make it possible to estimate field-level crop yields, showing a great potential for agricultural index insurance. This paper identifies an important threat to better insurance from these new technologies: data with many fields and few years can yield downward biased estimates of basis risk, a fundamental metric in index insurance. To demonstrate this bias, we use state-of-the-art satellite-based data on agricultural yields in the US and in Kenya to estimate and simulate basis risk. We find a substantive downward bias leading to a systematic overestimation of insurance quality. In this paper, we argue that big data in crop insurance can lead to a new situation where the number of variables $N$ largely exceeds the number of observations $T$. In such a situation where $T\ll N$, conventional asymptotics break, as evidenced by the large bias we find in simulations. We show how the high-dimension, low-sample-size (HDLSS) asymptotics, together with the spiked covariance model, provide a more relevant framework for the $T\ll N$ case encountered in index insurance. More precisely, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the relative share of the first eigenvalue of the covariance matrix, a measure of systematic risk in index insurance. Our formula accurately approximates the empirical bias simulated from the satellite data, and provides a useful tool for practitioners to quantify bias in insurance quality.
    Date: 2022–09
  34. By: Deininger,Klaus W.; Ali,Daniel Ayalew; Kussul,Nataliia; Shelestov,Andrii Yu; Lemoine,Guido; Yailimova,Hanna
    Abstract: This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine toestimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satelliteimagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machinelearning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield.Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14 rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% ofwhich is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which isparticularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons.Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the currentwinter crop can be harvested fully.
    Date: 2022–07–07
  35. By: Barahona, Nano; Otero, Cristobal; Otero, Sebastian
    Abstract: We study a regulation in Chile that mandates warning labels on products whose sugar or caloric concentration exceeds certain thresholds. We show that consumers substitute from labeled to unlabeled products—a pattern mostly driven by products that consumers mistakenly believe to be healthy. On the supply side, we find substantial reformulation of products and bunching at the thresholds. We develop and estimate an equilibrium model of demand for food and firms’ pricing and nutritional choices. We find that food labels increase consumer welfare by 1.6% of total expenditure, and that these effects are enhanced by firms’ responses. We then use the model to study alternative policy designs. Under optimal policy thresholds, food labels and sugar taxes generate similar gains in consumer welfare, but food labels benefit the poor relatively more
    Keywords: Food labels, equilibrium effects, misinformation, sugar taxes.
    JEL: D12 D22 I12 I18 L11 L81
    Date: 2022–04
  36. By: Park,Hogeun; Selod,Harris; Murray,Siobhan; Chellaraj,Gnanaraj
    Abstract: The paper studies the dynamics of agricultural land use at the global scale as measured fromspace using satellite imagery between 2003 and 2018. It shows large global movements in and out of cropland andcorrelates these movements with biophysical, economic, and institutional variables. The empirical identification ofthese effects relies on a two-stage approach that disentangles the effect of local geography fromnational-level characteristics. The paper finds that weak land governance, inequality, and pressure on land resourcescontribute to land degradation but are less able to explain movements into cropland which could more likely reflectnational policies.
    Date: 2022–06–09
  37. By: Wallander, Steven; Hrozencik, Aaron; Aillery, Marcel
    Abstract: Drought can have a major impact on irrigated agricultural production. This report summarizes information from USDA’s 2019 Survey of Irrigation Organizations about irrigation organizations’ role in drought planning and response.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022–01
  38. By: Castaing,Pauline; Gazeaud,Jules
    Abstract: Despite limited uptake, index insurance is often seen as one of the most remarkableinnovations of the past decades to help smallholder farmers manage risks. This paper uses a Bayesian hierarchical modelto aggregate evidence from existing experiments and assess the external validity of their results. The findings showpositive but highly heterogeneous responses to index insurance across experiments. Interventions expanding accessto index insurance typically boost productive investments by 0.06–0.11 standard deviation on average. However, treatmenteffects display substantial heterogeneity and there is no evidence that this heterogeneity can be meaningfullyexplained by basic household characteristics. The existing evidence base thus offers limited insights to predict theimpact of index insurance in new settings. The paper concludes that governments and development agencies shouldremain cautious before investing in the widespread expansion of index insurance.
    Date: 2022–09–06
  39. By: Hrozencik, Aaron; Wallander, Steven; Aillery, Marcel
    Abstract: Water delivery and storage organizations allow irrigation water to be transported and stored for use by farmers and ranchers. This report reviews data on water storage, conveyance, and metering infrastructure that is managed by these organizations.
    Keywords: Farm Management, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–10
  40. By: Terry Sicular (University of Western Ontario); Mengbing Zhu (Beijing Normal University, China)
    Abstract: During the Cultural Revolution China embarked on a dramatic, albeit temporary, expansion of secondary education in rural areas that affected tens of millions of children who reached secondary school age in the late 1960s and 1970s. The conventional wisdom is that this expansion was politicized and low quality. Using instrumental variables estimation, we exploit variation in the expansion across localities and birth cohorts to estimate the impact of Cultural Revolution education on individual outcomes. Creative use of historical county-level information matched with rich household survey data from the mid-1990s allows analysis of multiple outcomes. We find a significant, positive effect of Cultural Revolution years of education on off-farm employment and wage earnings. The effect on household income is mixed and likely reflects the substitution of market purchases for own production.
    Keywords: Education expansion, secondary education, returns to schooling, rural China, Cultural Revolution
    JEL: I21 I28 J24 J31 O15
    Date: 2022
  41. By: Gourlay,Sydney; Maggio,Giuseppe; Safyan,Anahit; Zezza,Alberto
    Abstract: Evidence indicates that land rights are strongly associated with several indicators ofwell-being and development outcomes, including access to credit, resilience to shocks, productivity, and bargainingpower. Accurately capturing gender differences in land rights is thus critical for development policy, promptingthe need to shift from household-level land rights data collection to collecting more and better individual-leveldata on land rights. The importance of individual land rights has been recognized in the Sustainable DevelopmentGoals (SDG) agenda, with the inclusion of two key indicators on land rights—SDG indicators 1.4.2 and 5.a.1. Althoughclear guidance exists for computing and monitoring these, the choice of data collection methods may influence theresulting indicators and the understanding of the underlying land rights. Specifically, research has shown that the useof proxy respondents in the collection of data on assets, including land, results in a biased understanding of men’sand women’s holdings vis-à-vis self-reporting. This paper uses data from a methodological experiment in Armenia toassess the implications of survey design—namely, respondent strategy and the level of disaggregation of land data—on themeasurement of individual land rights and SDG indicator monitoring. The findings suggest that in the context ofArmenia, the measurement of SDG 5.a.1 and 1.4.2 (a) is robust to respondent approach and data disaggregation level,driven largely by the high rates of documentation. Meanwhile, land rights that are less objective, such as theright to bequeath and perception of tenure security, are sensitive to these survey design choices.
    Date: 2022–08–16
  42. By: Fabian Eckert; Michael Peters
    Abstract: Between 1880 and 1920, the US agricultural employment share fell from 50% to 25%. However, despite aggregate demand shifting away from their sector of specialization, rural labor markets saw faster wage growth and industrialization than non-agricultural parts of the US. We propose a spatial model of the structural transformation to analyze the link between aggregate structural change and local economic development. The calibrated model shows that rural areas adapted to the decline of the agricultural sector by adopting technologies already in use in urban locations. Without such catchup growth, economic development would have been urban-biased and spatial inequality would have increased.
    JEL: O1 R11
    Date: 2022–09
  43. By: Felbermayr, Gabriel; Peterson, Sonja; Wanner, Joschka
    Abstract: While international trade can offer gains from specialization and access to a wider range of products, it is also closely interlinked with global environmental problems, above all, anthropogenic climate change. This survey provides a structured overview of the economic literature on the interaction between environmental outcomes, trade, environmental policy and trade policy. In this endeavor, it covers approaches reaching from descriptive data analysis based on Input-Output tables, over quantitative trade models and econometric studies to game-theoretic analyses. Addressed issues are in particular the emission content of trade and emissions along value chains, the relocation of dirty firms and environmental impacts abroad, impacts of specific trade polices (such as trade agreements or tariffs) or environmental policy (such as Border Carbon Adjustment), transportation emissions, as well as the role of firms. Across the different topics covered, the paper also tries to identify avenues for future research, with a particular focus on extending quantitative trade and environment models.
    Keywords: trade,trade policy,environment,climate,carbon emissions
    JEL: F13 F18 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2022
  44. By: Haleh Kootval; Alice Soares
    Keywords: Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Conflict and Development - Disaster Management Environment - Adaptation to Climate Change Environment - Natural Disasters Science and Technology Development - Climate and Meteorology
    Date: 2020–11
  45. By: World Bank; WWF
    Keywords: Environment - Biodiversity Environment - Climate Change and Environment Environment - Environment and Energy Efficiency Environment - Environmental Economics & Policies Environment - Environmental Protection Environment - Sustainable Land Management
    Date: 2020–12
  46. By: Sebastien Desbureaux (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Frederic Mortier (UPR Forêts et Sociétés - Forêts et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Esha Zaveri (World Bank Group); Michelle van Vliet (Utrecht University [Utrecht]); Jason Russ (World Bank Group); Sophie Aude (World Bank Group); Richard Damania (World Bank Group)
    Abstract: Clean water is key for sustainable development. However, large gaps in monitoring data limit our understanding of global hotspots of water quality and their evolution over time. We demonstrate the value added of a data-driven approach to provide accurate high-frequency estimates of surface water quality worldwide over the period 1992-2010. We assess water quality for six indicators (temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity, nitrate-nitrite, phosphorus) relevant for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). The performance of our modelling approach compares well to, or exceeds, the performance of recently published process-based models. The model's outputs indicate that poor water quality is a global problem that impacts low-, middle-and high-income countries but with different pollutants. When countries become richer, water pollution does not disappear but evolves.
    Date: 2022–08–30

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