nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2022‒04‒11
35 papers chosen by

  1. The Role of Agro-Ecological Sensitive Agriculture in Building Resilient and Sustainable Food Systems in Malawi By Kabambe, Vernon H; Ngwira, Amos; Mkondiwa, Maxwell; Njira, Keston O W
  2. Harvesting trees to harvest cash crops: The role of internal migrants in forest land conversion in Uganda By Ignaciuk, Ada; Kwon, Jihae; Maggio, Giuseppe; Mastrorillo, Marina; Sitko, Nicholas J.
  3. The formation of agricultural governance: the interplay between state and civil society in European agriculture, 1870-1940 By Jordi Planas; Anton Schuurman; Yves Segers
  4. The Changing Rural Landscape in Pakistan: Labour Markets and Consumption Patterns By Rafi Ullah
  5. Public investment prioritization for Rwanda’s inclusive agricultural transformation: Evidence from rural investment and policy analysis modeling By Aragie, Emerta; Diao, Xinshen; Spielman, David J.; Thurlow, James; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Benimana, Gilberthe
  6. Drivers and stressors of resilience to food insecurity – Evidence from 35 countries By d’Errico, Marco; Pinay, Jeanne; Luu, Anh; Jumbe, Ellestina
  7. Tennessee Consumers' Views About Farmstead Milk By Zaring, Caitlin S.; Jensen, Kimberly L.; Rihn, Alicia L.; Hughes, David W.; Morgan, Mark T.
  8. Profile of Policies, Strategies and Major Programmes Supporting Agro-ecological Intensification in Malawi By Kamoyo, Kefasi; Kambauwa, Gertrude; Kabambe, V.H.
  9. Agricultural productivity and land inequality. Evidence from the Philippines By Ludovic Bequet
  10. What is Holding Back Milk Production Potential in Pakistan? By Abdus Sattar
  11. COVID-19, gender, and small-scale farming in Nepal By Leder, S.; Shrestha, Gitta; Upadhyaya, R.; Adhikari, Y.
  12. The impact of COVID-19 on staple food prices: location matters By Yade, M.; Matchaya, Greenwell; Karugia, J.; Goundan, A.; Guthiga, P.; Taondyande, M.; Odjo, S.; Nhlengethwa, S.
  13. On track to achieve no net loss of forest at Madagascar’s biggest mine By Katie Devenish; Sébastien Desbureaux; Simon Willcock; Julia Jones
  14. Cattle, seaweed, and global greenhouse gas emissions By Nin-Pratt, Alejandro; Beveridge, Malcolm C. M.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Marwaha, Nisha; Stanley, Michele; Grisenthwaite, Robert; Phillips, Michael J.
  15. Distributional consequences of wheat policy in Sudan: A simulation model analysis By Dorosh, Paul A.
  16. Government transfers, COVID-19 shock, and food insecurity: Evidence from rural households in India By Kumar, Anjani; Saroj, Sunil; Mishra, Ashok K.; Rashid, Shahidur
  17. What to Make of Biofuels? Understanding the Market from 2010 to the Present, and Projecting Ahead to 2030 Given Current Policies By Witcover, Julie
  18. Evaluating cereal market (dis)integration in Sudan By Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens; Siddig, Khalid
  19. Behaviour Change Interventions in the Water Sector By Jui Kamat; Rose Meleady; Theodore Turocy; Vittoria Danino
  20. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on rural women and men in Dang District, Nepal By Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Gupta, Shweta; Barooah, Prapti
  21. Role of Responsible Governance in Enhancing Integrated Goat Keeping and Cropping Systems in Southern Malawi: Trade-offs and Synergies towards Agroecological Transitions and Transformation By Mkondiwa, Maxwell; Kabambe, Vernon H; Ngwira, Amos R
  22. Remote sensing data for monitoring agricultural production and economic activity: Application in Egypt By Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelradi, Fadi; Kassim, Yumna; Guo, Zhe
  23. Tennessee's Wine Industry: Consumer Perceptions, Quality Assurance Programs and Marketing Strategies By Rihn, Alicia L.; Jensen, Kimberly; Hughes, David W.
  24. The Impact of National Home Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP) on Rural Communities in Nigeria By Elda N. Okolo-Obasi; Joseph I. Uduji
  25. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on rural women and men in Senegal By Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Gupta, Shweta; Barooah, Prapti
  26. Pepsico supply chain and gender assessment. Barriers and opportunities to promote women’s economic empowerment in Colombia By Susana Martínez-Restrepo; María del Pilar Ruiz; Mónica Cortés; Tatiana Piñeros
  27. Political economy of wheat value chains in post-revolution Sudan By Resnick, Danielle
  28. Agricultural Windfalls and the Seasonality of Political Violence in Africa By David Ubilava; Justin V. Hastings; Kadir Atalay
  29. Quarterly market report for animal products, October to December 2021 By International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
  30. You reap what (you think) you sow? Evidence on farmers’behavioral adjustments in the case of correct crop varietal identification By Paola Mallia
  31. Subsidizing Compliance: A Multi-Unit Price List Mechanism for Legal Fishing Nets at Lake Victoria By Diekert, Florian; Eymess, Tillmann; Goeschl, Timo; Gómez-Cardona, Santiago; Luomba, Joseph
  32. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on rural women and men in northern Ghana By Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Gupta, Shweta; Barooah, Prapti
  33. Community Forest Management: The story behind a success story in Nepal By François Libois; Jean-Marie Baland; Nicolas Delbart; Subhrendu Pattanayak
  34. Do Standards Improve the Quality of Traded Products? By Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl; Herghelegiu, Cristina
  35. DEVELOPMENT OF FARM MODEL FOR ND and NGP Prediction of Corn and Soybean Yields in the Presence of Random Shocks By Addey, Kwame Asiam; Shaik, Saleem; Nganje, William

  1. By: Kabambe, Vernon H; Ngwira, Amos; Mkondiwa, Maxwell; Njira, Keston O W
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2021–12–28
  2. By: Ignaciuk, Ada; Kwon, Jihae; Maggio, Giuseppe; Mastrorillo, Marina; Sitko, Nicholas J.
    Abstract: This working paper merges socio-economic data with data on deforestation to explore the interrelationship between rural migration, the development of the commercial agricultural sector, and forest cover loss. Specifically, we test the role of cash crop producers and inter-district migrants on the tree loss in the parish of residence, while controlling for several other household-level and parish-level contributing factors of deforestation, including population density, proximity to markets and protected areas. Also, we investigate the agricultural channel, specifically producing cash crops, as one major channel through which inter-district migration affects deforestation. Our analysis aims to support the identification of policy strategies to reduce the adverse impacts of agricultural commercialization initiatives on Uganda’s critical natural resources; and identify policy options that maximize migrant’s benefits on recipient areas while minimizing downside risks of migration related to over-exploitation of resources and deforestation.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries
  3. By: Jordi Planas; Anton Schuurman; Yves Segers
    Abstract: In this paper, we focus on the relationship between state and agriculture in Europe in the period roughly from 1870 to 1940. Since the crisis of the late nineteenth-century, state intervention had increased into many areas of agricultural markets, and a growing social mobilization within the countryside had also made its mark, with the diffusion of agricultural associations (landowners associations, farmers unions, specialized crop producers’ associations, co-operatives, ...) that led to a much more organized rural society. Already prior to the 1930s, the state had become involved, one way or another, with the development of agriculture, such as the promotion of technical advancement, in the regulation of agricultural markets, and in the development of farm supportive policies. Throughout this period, agricultural associations played a growing role as intermediary institutions, and it is this period that we consider to be the formative period of this interplay between the state and agricultural civil society. The result was a metamorphosis from the mobilization of the peasantry and the representation of agrarian interests to a form of selfgovernment or co-government of the agricultural sector at the national level, which reached its highest point only after the Second World War.
    Keywords: agricultural governance, state intervention, agricultural organizations, agricultural modernization, European agriculture, early twentieth century
    JEL: N43 N44 N53 N54
    Date: 2022–04
  4. By: Rafi Ullah (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)
    Abstract: Pakistan’s rural areas have complex economies with employment permeating across a range of industry divisions apart from agriculture. This paper aims to examine the trends in rural employment and consumption patterns by looking at key individual and household level indicators. The data used for this exercise comes from Household Integrated Economic Surveys (HIES) conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) over multiple years. A thorough examination of the trends indicates that there has been a persistent shift in non-farm-related employment in Pakistan, with about half the working population now involved in non-farm-based jobs. Furthermore, approximately two-third of household income comes from sources that are not directly linked to agricultural production, either crop production or livestock. People in rural Pakistan are switching from non-farm employment due to a myriad of reasons, including an increase in peri-urban agglomerations, increasing connectivity, low returns to agriculture, and scarcity of land due to skewed land ownership. Household consumption patterns over the past two decades also indicate key shifts in the nature of commodities consumed. Households on average spend less than half their total consumption expenditure on food items. This is even true for families in the lowest income quintile. There is a need to examine further the changing economic landscape of rural areas in Pakistan. The research needs to move away from ideological pitfalls that have often inhibited factual realities by relegating rural areas as nondynamic places that only contain primary sector economic activities.
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Aragie, Emerta; Diao, Xinshen; Spielman, David J.; Thurlow, James; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Benimana, Gilberthe
    Abstract: As Rwanda is expected to return to its rapid growth trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic, agriculture will continue to play a central role in the structural transformation of the entire economy. To this end, the Government of Rwanda continues to invest in the agricultural sector by building on Strategic Plans for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTAs) that began in the early 2000s. The challenging question is how to prioritize public expenditures across a broad portfolio of policies and programs. Ambitious plans, whether in the short or long term, require difficult decisions. The prioritization of public investment becomes even more complex as Rwanda’s structural transformation advances and as new investments—beyond the farm—become critically important for the agricultural sector. The structural transformation process itself means that as agriculture becomes more integrated with the rest of the economy, public resource allocations need to address a wider range of issues across the entire food system; these include nutrition-sensitive food production systems, inclusive value chain development, nonfarm rural enterprise development, and climate-resilient sustainable intensification of both crops and livestock. This study provides evidence that is designed to assist the Government of Rwanda in its selection of agricultural policy, investment, and expenditure portfolios that reflect the country’s broad focus on its food system and structural transformation. This process of prioritization will need to incorporate multiple public investments targeting multiple development outcomes and will need to be grounded in the costeffective use of public resources in a largely market-led transformation process. This data-driven and evidence-based approach must critically underpin an informed investment prioritization process that helps achieve ambitious targets in an environment constrained by limited public resources. The study uses the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with contributions from colleagues at the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) and the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The study draws on data from multiple sources as well as expert insights to inform the application of RIAPA’s Agricultural Investment for Data Analyzer (AIDA) module as a tool to measure the impacts of alternative public expenditure options on multiple development outcomes. Using this integrated modeling framework, the study links agricultural and rural development spending to four specific outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement; at the same time, it considers the synergies and tradeoffs associated with the different investment options in the transformation process. The paper first assesses the contribution of public expenditures to agricultural and rural development under the fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4) that extends between 2018 and 2024. These findings are important, given the fact that since the beginning of PSTA 4, the budget allocated to MINAGRI (measured in constant prices) has stagnated. Our results suggest that increased spending on agriculture is well justified and that such spending is essential if the Government of Rwanda is to achieve its long-term development goals.
    Keywords: RWANDA, CENTRAL AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, public investment, rural areas, policies, agriculture, investment, modelling
    Date: 2022
  6. By: d’Errico, Marco; Pinay, Jeanne; Luu, Anh; Jumbe, Ellestina
    Abstract: Resilience is often associated with multivalued and multi-faceted strategies, programs, and projects. After approximately 15 years of empirical evidence in the literature, few research questions remain unexplored and unanswered, especially with the recent occurrence of a global pandemic. In this paper, we are assessing whether there are few and consistently relevant elements that determine resilience capacity as well as investigating which shocks are most dramatically reducing resilience. We also investigate which coping strategies are most frequently adopted in the presence of shocks. Our results show that diversification of income sources, education, access to land, livestock, and agricultural inputs, are the main drivers of households’ resilience capacity. Moreover, the most prevailing shocks are found to be natural, health and livelihood-related shocks. In addition to this, we show that reducing the quantity and quality of food consumed, seeking an extra job, selling assets, taking credit, relying on relatives and social networks are the most adopted coping strategies. Finally, we found that coping strategies are able to mitigate the adverse effects of shocks on resilience capacity; however, they are not sufficient to offset their long-term negative consequences. Our conclusion is that adequate investments in resilience are conditional to a) engaging with activities that are broadly consistent across countries and b) fine-tuning the interventions based on context-specificity. This working paper has been developed as a background document for The State of Food and Agriculture 2021 – Making agrifood systems more resilient to shocks and stresses.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty
  7. By: Zaring, Caitlin S.; Jensen, Kimberly L.; Rihn, Alicia L.; Hughes, David W.; Morgan, Mark T.
    Abstract: Packaging of fluid milks can serve as an initial market entry point for dairy farmers to enter into on-farm processing due to the product requiring less equipment and facilities investment than other dairy products. Understanding consumer preferences for milk that is produced and processed on-farm (farmstead) can aid in understanding the share of milk consumers who are interested in purchasing on-farm processed milk, the attributes of those most interested in the product to aid in target marketing, and consumers’ preferred outlets to purchase farmstead milk (FSM) which can assist in marketing the product. In addition, some dairy farmers may host visitors on-farm, either serving as an agritourism venue with educational tours about how milk is produced or on-farm stores to buy the processed milk. FSM is defined in this study as milk where the farmer produces the milk and then processes and packages on a Tennessee dairy farm. FSM may be sold directly to consumers at on-farm stores or farm stands, through farmers markets, through home delivery, or it may be sold by other sellers such as grocery stores, specialty stores or restaurants. The overall goal of this study is to provide a better understanding of Tennessee milk and dairy products consumers’ views about and preferences for FSM. Specific objectives of this study are to ascertain: a. prior knowledge about and purchases of FSM, b. interest in future purchases of FSM, c. how demographics vary across prior purchases and future interest in purchasing FSM, d. projected FSM purchases and expenditures among those interested in purchasing FSM, e. attitudes about on-farm produced and processed milk and dairy products, f. anticipated outlets where respondents would purchase FSM among those interested in purchasing it, and g. on farm purchases and visits by those interested in visiting a dairy farm.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Farm Management, Marketing
    Date: 2022–01–03
  8. By: Kamoyo, Kefasi; Kambauwa, Gertrude; Kabambe, V.H.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics
    Date: 2021–08
  9. By: Ludovic Bequet (Center for Research in the Economics of Development, University of Namur)
    Abstract: This paper presents the first detailed empirical evaluation of the effect of agricultural productivity on land inequality using the context of genetically modified (GM) corn seeds introduction in the Philippines. Using three waves of census data covering 21 years and 17 million plots, I identify the effect by exploiting exogenous variations in soil and weather, leading to differences in potential gain from GM corn cultivation. Results show that municipalities that benefited more from the technology experienced an increase in landholding inequality, measured by the area farmed by top decile and by the Gini index. This effect is partly driven by a relative increase in agricultural land and more precisely by a lower contraction in more affected areas. While increased land inequality is associated with a higher level of terrorist activity, it does not seem to have any adverse effect on poverty, household income or expenditure.
    Date: 2022–02
  10. By: Abdus Sattar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)
    Abstract: Pakistan produced 55 million tonnes of buffalo and cow milk during 2019-20. The estimated potential production is much higher—at the research station level, the estimated potential is 82 million tonnes, while the maximum breed potential is 110 million tonnes. Several factors, including; low return for dairy farmers, credit constraints, the low genetic potential of milking animals, the absence of a formal milk marketing system, lack of healthcare for milking animals, insufficient/ improper feeding, and lack of research, constrains opportunities in the dairy sector.
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Leder, S.; Shrestha, Gitta (International Water Management Institute); Upadhyaya, R.; Adhikari, Y.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Gender; Small-scale farming; Women farmers; Smallholders; Women's organizations; Social inclusion; Awareness-raising; Food security; State intervention; Relief
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Yade, M.; Matchaya, Greenwell (International Water Management Institute); Karugia, J.; Goundan, A.; Guthiga, P.; Taondyande, M.; Odjo, S.; Nhlengethwa, S.
    Keywords: Food prices; Commodities; COVID-19; Pandemics; Food shortages; Food surplus; Forecasting; Markets; Urban areas; Rural areas; Maize flour; Rice; Garri; Millets; Perishable products; Coastal states; Landlocked states
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Katie Devenish (School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom); Sébastien Desbureaux (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Simon Willcock (School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom); Julia Jones (School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: Meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals requires reconciling development with biodiversity conservation. Governments and lenders increasingly call for major industrial developments to offset unavoidable biodiversity loss but there are few robust evaluations of whether offset interventions ensure no net loss of biodiversity. We focus on the biodiversity offsets associated with the high-profile Ambatovy mine in Madagascar and evaluate their effectiveness at delivering no net loss of forest. As part of their efforts to mitigate biodiversity loss, Ambatovy compensate for forest clearance at the mine site by slowing deforestation driven by small-scale agriculture elsewhere. Using a range of methods, including extensive robustness checks exploring 116 alternative model specifications, we show that the offsets are on track to avert as much deforestation as was caused by the mine. This encouraging result shows that biodiversity offsetting can contribute towards mitigating environmental damage from a major industrial development, even within a weak state, but there remain important caveats with broad application. Our approach could serve as a template to facilitate other evaluations and so build a stronger evidence-base of the effectiveness of no net loss interventions.
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Nin-Pratt, Alejandro; Beveridge, Malcolm C. M.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Marwaha, Nisha; Stanley, Michele; Grisenthwaite, Robert; Phillips, Michael J.
    Abstract: This study is a first attempt to estimate the impact of a red seaweed (Asparagopsis taxiformis) feed additive on total emissions from cattle and the feasibility of scaling up farmed seaweed production to meet projected demand from the livestock sector. The approach used for the analysis combines projections of supply and demand of beef and milk production to 2050 with a cattle herd model that allows calculation of animal categories by age and sex, animal weight and production, and feed intake and methane emissions from cattle. At the time of this study, the seaweed additive showed limited applicability in grazing systems as it has been used experimentally, mostly incorporated in mix rations for each treatment animal, with not enough evidence available at present to determine the time of decay of the active component in seaweed after consumption by animals with limited access to the additive. Given these limitations, this study assumes that the applicability of the seaweed additive could be extended in the future to most dairy systems via slow-release formulations that have already been developed for other CH4 inhibitors and that can be fed daily during milking time. Based on this assumption, the maximum potential reduction of enteric methane emissions of the new technology is analyzed by projecting a scenario where the seaweed additive is supplied globally to dairy cows. Results show that the seaweed additive could result in a reduction of up to 10 percent in total methane emissions from cattle compared to a No-Seaweed scenario. Most of this reduction was driven by decreased emissions in Latin America, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The estimated reduction in feed intake associated with the seaweed additive was equivalent to an annual reduction in grain consumption of approximately 50 kgs per cow, or US$5 billion in global cost savings per year. The total amount of dry seaweed needed to supply dairy cows in 2050 was estimated at 5 million metric tons per year, representing 18 percent of the world’s seaweed-farmed area. Simply assuming the sector’s long-term historical average growth rates, this production level might be reached in approximately 20 years, although there are still several open questions about production and technologies and high variability in production costs and producer prices, as A. taxiformis is not extensively produced at present. Available knowledge on seaweed production seems to suggest that, at least at the start, production of A. taxiformis will be by nearshore culture. Expansion of nearshore culture could result in site competition with established seaweed production, access to operational license and government approvals in several countries, licenses to use livestock feeds incorporating seaweed as a feed additive, and more research to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of the additive in accordance with country’s regulations. The best possibilities for the development of production A. taxiformis seem to be in South Asia, for its growing demand and production of dairy products, its importance in terms of global emissions, and its location near the best- and well-established seaweed production areas in Southeast Asia.
    Keywords: WORLD; beef; cattle; seaweeds; greenhouse gas emissions; greenhouse gases; milk; livestock production; climate change; livestock; methane
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Dorosh, Paul A.
    Abstract: Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various policy options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful policy analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, wheat, wheat flour, bread, food prices, value chains, trade, models, wheat value chain, model simulation
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Kumar, Anjani; Saroj, Sunil; Mishra, Ashok K.; Rashid, Shahidur
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has decimated the lives and livelihoods of people around the world. The impact of COVID-19 has been especially devastating for low-income families in rural areas of India. Food insecurity became pervasive in rural areas soon after the nationwide lockdown was announced, as many families relied on daily wage work to fund basic necessities. By providing cash transfers and the additional foodgrains, Indian policymakers acted swiftly to reduce the financial impact on family income and consumption. This paper investigates the factors affecting the participation of rural families in the cash transfer program and the effect of government cash transfers on food insecurity. Results indicate that the government cash transfer program in India decreased moderate food insecurity by 2.4% and severe food insecurity by about 0.92%.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; food insecurity; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; rural areas; cash transfers; households; shock; income; models; Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana; food insecurity experience scale (FIES); Rasch model; Lewbel IV model
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Witcover, Julie
    Abstract: Low-carbon biofuels are projected to play a critical role in the early and middle stages of a transition away from petroleum fuels, and they will likely have a longer-term role in uses like aviation and maritime transportation that require energy-dense fuels in high volumes. Policies over the last decade aimed to move low-carbon biofuels squarely into U.S. markets. While these policies encouraged the production of conventional biofuels such as crop-based ethanol, cellulosic fuels that can have a significantly lower carbon footprint per unit energy failed to materialize at commercial scale. A research team at the University of California, Davis examined the track record of the past decade for clues as to why this happened, and looked forward to 2030 to point to how current policies are likely to still fall short in delivering low-carbon biofuels that can reach scales needed for these hard-to-decarbonize sectors. The findings highlight barriers to low-carbon biofuel development that would safeguard against unintended consequences such as additional emissions from land use changes or higher food prices that can come from competition with the use of crops for fuel. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Business, Biomass fuels, Forecasting, Market assessment
    Date: 2022–04–01
  18. By: Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens; Siddig, Khalid
    Abstract: This paper evaluates spatial market and price transmission in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. We use comprehensive and long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a multivariate vector of error-correction cointegration models (VECM) to characterize both short-term and long-term price transmissions across local cereal markets. We find that among the 15 local wheat markets and 18 sorghum markets we can only detect significant spatial market integration among 7 wheat and 10 sorghum markets. Despite some strong spatial market integration among a few neighboring markets, there is no market integration between several regions. For example, cereal markets in Darfur are not integrated with cereal markets in the rest of the country. Among integrated markets, we observe significant variations in the strength of price transmission elasticities as well as speed of adjustment to longterm equilibrium, which implies that shocks (and price policies) in some markets can affect only some other markets. Most of the strong price transmission and spatial market dependence follow existing trade flows and road networks, insinuating that infrastructural barriers may be obstructing spatial market integration. We also find that markets in production surplus states are less responsive to price changes in neighboring markets than those located in cereal deficit states. Finally, we also observe relatively stronger spatial integration and short-term adjustment in sorghum markets than wheat markets. Shocks to sorghum prices in sorghum producing markets have permanent impact while shocks to wheat prices in wheat producing markets endure transitory effects. These findings have important policy implications for improving the efficiency of cereal markets in Sudan and other similar settings.
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, markets, cereals, prices, efficiency, food prices, spatial market integration, cereal markets
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Jui Kamat (School of Psychology, University of East Anglia, Norwich); Rose Meleady (School of Psychology, University of East Anglia, Norwich); Theodore Turocy (School of Economics and Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science, University of East Anglia, Norwich); Vittoria Danino (Anglian Centre for Water Studies, Anglian Water)
    Abstract: The water sector is increasingly making use of behaviour change interventions across a wide range of applications. These interventions can be alternatives to traditional infrastructure or end of pipe solutions by mitigating problems created by human behaviours. This article reviews 60 behaviour change interventions carried out during AMP6, addressing behaviours related to water use, water recycling and those focusing on maintaining broader environmental sustainability. Based on this review, we identify opportunities for strengthening the development processes in the sector for behaviour change interventions.
    Keywords: Behaviour, behaviour change, water consumption, water recycling, sewerage, sustainability, non-household behaviours, intervention design, intervention implementation, intervention evaluation
    Date: 2022–04
  20. By: Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Gupta, Shweta; Barooah, Prapti
    Abstract: To understand the impact of COVID-19 on rural women, we designed a longitudinal panel study with five rounds of phone survey data collection in Dang district in the mid-western region of Nepal. This note summarizes results from all rounds. The study sample was drawn using systematic random sampling from a large, representative household listing survey conducted in February 2020 across four rural municipalities in Dang district. Figure 1 provides a detailed description on the study timeline and sample size covered in each round.
    Keywords: NEPAL, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, women, gender, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, income, food security, rural areas, rural unemployment, migrants, healthy diets, food access, social protection, diet,
    Date: 2022
  21. By: Mkondiwa, Maxwell; Kabambe, Vernon H; Ngwira, Amos R
    Abstract: This brief reflects on the cases of two villages in Lingoni section, Domasi EPA in Machinga district, combined with literature review and key informant interviews, to highlight the significant contribution of village-level responsible governance in enhancing agroecological intensification amongst small holders. The study reveals that through using village by-laws as tools, successful control of free grazing of livestock and uncontrolled fires has been prevented for many years, allowing local cropping systems to embrace long season crops such as cassava and pigeon peas, and winter cropping including multiple cropping with irrigation. The full range of resulting agroecological benefits are presented and discussed including the trade-offs from all sides of the systems.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2021–11–01
  22. By: Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelradi, Fadi; Kassim, Yumna; Guo, Zhe
    Abstract: This policy note showcases two examples on how remote sensing data can be used for monitoring agricultural production and economic activities. The first case aims to generate granular data on agricultural production, which remain scarce in Egypt and the MENA region. The second case demonstrates the potential of remote sensing data to monitor economic activities during the COVID19 pandemic. Based on these data and together with other recent findings, we provide the following recommendations to facilitate post-COVID-19 recovery in Egypt: - Targeting of stimulus and recovery packages based on the economic repercussions experienced across geographies and sectors - Identifying and supporting promising value chains which experienced a significant slowdown in economic activities - Diversifying economic activities and markets to improve the resilience of agri-food systems. - Investment in data infrastructure to monitor and respond to future shocks. This may be supported by scale up of digital solutions, which proved to be effective in sustaining business activities even during the pandemic.
    Keywords: EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, agricultural production, remote sensing, monitoring, economic activities, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, investment, spatial distribution
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Rihn, Alicia L.; Jensen, Kimberly; Hughes, David W.
    Abstract: The Tennessee Wine and Grape Board and Tennessee Department of Agriculture commissioned a research study addressing consumer perceptions and value of Tennessee wines and how those perceptions vary between Tennessee residents and non-residents. The study also addressed consumer perceptions of wine quality assurance programs (QAPs) and local labeling related to Tennessee wines. Together, these objectives provide information about how consumers perceive Tennessee wines, local wines and QAPs, which can be leveraged when making future business and marketing strategies. Internet surveys were used in September 2021 to elicit consumer purchasing behavior, perceptions, and valuations towards Tennessee wines and QAPs. A total of 1,216 U.S. consumers completed the survey, with nearly 61 percent of the sample consisting of Tennessee residents. Non-Tennessee participants were from across the U.S. with Florida, Texas, New York, Georgia and Ohio having the largest levels of participation. Non-Tennessee residents were recruited to participate because they had either recently or planned to visit Tennessee. In general, consumers perceived local and Tennessee wines favorably but do not differentiate between local ingredients, processing/fermentation or sales locations, which implies that local terminology is often positive, but vaguely interpreted by the end consumer. There is an opportunity for the Tennessee wine industry to use this information and take actions to define their own reputation. Consistent quality and positive experiences can aid in maintaining a positive local brand image and reputation, which can benefit wine industry stakeholders throughout the state. Although participants indicated awareness of Tennessee wines and vacations, the results were lower for wine trails and clubs, meaning there is potential to build the customer base for Tennessee wines by making potential customers more aware of wine trails and clubs that are available and feature Tennessee wines. Increased awareness in- and out-of-state could benefit the industry through access to additional markets. For instance, many participants indicated their visits to Tennessee involved visiting family/friends. If more in-state family/ friends are aware of Tennessee wine offerings, a stable local market could be used to attract additional tourists through family connections. These connections also provide the opportunity to explore additional marketing avenues (e.g., restaurants, etc.) that can increase market penetration and product availability to consumers. Beyond local and Tennessee wine perceptions, participants were asked about QAPs and how that relates to their purchasing decisions. Participants indicated they would expect to pay $21.39 per bottle of QAP certified wine (versus an average current spending of $14.89 per bottle of non-QAP wine). Results show that QAPs are perceived as important, could aid in growing the Tennessee wine industry, and that the source influenced its impact on purchasing behavior. In general, QAP sources from within the industry (e.g., associations, wineries) had a more positive impact on purchasing decisions than sources from outside the industry (e.g., universities, independent third-parties, government agencies). Likely this preference is related to the complexity of wine production and flavor development, meaning having a QAP from a source that is familiar with all of the dimensions involved with wine making would align better and likely understand quality better than an organization less familiar with the industry. However, the choice experiment results indicate that a university-based QAP will not impact wine choice, but wine sweetness and Tennessee origins positively influenced choice. These findings suggest that sweetness and origin have a stronger impact than a university QAP. Overall, the results indicate that using an industry-specific organization as a source for the QAP would improve its impact more so than other types of organizations but other wine features (e.g., sweetness, origin) may be more influential on choice. The next section summarizes 15 key insights from the study, followed by a brief introduction, study methods and sample demographics, the in-depth results, a summary, and then recommendations based on the key findings.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Marketing
    Date: 2022–02–01
  24. By: Elda N. Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Joseph I. Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the national home grown school feeding programme (NHGSFP) in Nigeria. Its special focus is to investigate the impact of NHGSFP on rural communities in Nigeria. This paper adopts a survey research technique, aimed at gathering information from a representative sample of the population, as it is essentially cross-sectional, describing and interpreting the current situation. A total of 2400 households were sampled across the six geopolitical regions of Nigeria. The results from the use of a combined propensity score matching and logit model indicate that NHGSFP makes significant contributions to improving the health and educational status of rural school children, stimulate job creation and boost rural economy. This implies that a well-designed and integrated home grown school feeding programme can make significant contributions to improving food security at the household level, spurring job creation and boosting agricultural markets. This suggests the need for a purposeful engagement and support from all stakeholders to ensure the success of home grown school feeding programmes. This research adds to the literature on school feeding in low-income countries. It concludes that school feeding programmes have been shown to directly increase the educational and nutritional status of recipient children, and indirectly impact the economic and social lives of themselves and their family.
    Keywords: School feeding programme, propensity score matching, logit model, rural communities, sub Saharan Africa
    Date: 2022–01
  25. By: Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Gupta, Shweta; Barooah, Prapti
    Abstract: To understand the impact of COVID-19 on rural women, we designed a longitudinal panel study collecting five rounds of phone survey data with data drawn from a representative face-to-face survey in rural Senegal covering Fatick, Kaffrine, Kaolack, Kedougou, Kolda, Matam, Saint-Louis, Sedhiou, Tambacounda, and Ziguinchor regions. Due to low survey coverage of females in the first round, the second and third rounds surveyed both spouses and then randomly picked one male or female respondent per household to include in the study. For comparability we focus on findings from rounds 2-5. Figure 1 provides a detailed description of the study timeline and sample size covered in each round.
    Keywords: SENEGAL, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, women, gender, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, income, food security, rural areas, rural unemployment, households, food access, food availability,
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Susana Martínez-Restrepo; María del Pilar Ruiz; Mónica Cortés; Tatiana Piñeros
    Abstract: The main goal of this study is to understand PepsiCo’s supply chain including the roles men and women have on-farm; perceptions of women in agro industry; barriers and opportunities women encounter in accessing the supply chain as direct suppliers, producers, or on-farm workers; and, access to technical assistance, technology, finance, and inputs needed to produce to PepsiCo’s specifications. This information will inform the development of field activities for the Investing in Women to Strengthen Supply Chains Global Development Alliance (GDA) in Colombia.
    Keywords: Pepsico, Mujeres, Cadena de Suministro, Participación de la Mujer, Trabajadores Agrícolas, Mujeres en la Agroindustria, Empoderamiento de la Mujer, Cadena de Suministro de Papas, Cadena de Suministro de Plátano, Colombia
    JEL: Q11 Q13 Q16 J43 O54
    Date: 2021–08–31
  27. By: Resnick, Danielle
    Abstract: Wheat flour and bread have played a central role in Sudan’s political economy throughout the country’s post-independence history. In 2019, increasing bread prices precipitated the protests that ousted the government of Omar al-Bashir. How has Sudan’s recent political transition and economic circumstances impacted distortions within the wheat value chain? What are the policy preferences of relevant stakeholders for improving the affordability of wheat products and the productivity of domestic wheat farmers? This paper addresses these questions by drawing on key informant interviews in Sudan and utilizing a political settlements approach, which captures the underlying distribution of power among elites and citizens. The post-revolution political settlement contains a much broader distribution of power shared between a civilian alliance movement and the military, each of which has distinct interests in the wheat value chain. The paper elucidates the preferences of different stakeholders to address policy distortions and discusses bottlenecks that need to be overcome for those options to be feasible. In doing so, the analysis reveals that, while the policy of subsidizing bread remains contentious, there are broader coalitions for interventions related to regulatory and monitoring reforms, improvements in domestic wheat procurement, enhanced agricultural investments, and targeted cash transfers to cushion subsidy reductions.
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, cash transfers, wheat, wheat flour, bread, food prices, value chains, trade, social protection, wheat value chain, pre-revolution, political economy
    Date: 2021
  28. By: David Ubilava; Justin V. Hastings; Kadir Atalay
    Abstract: We study the seasonality of violence against civilians in the cropland of Africa. We combine monthly international cereal prices with grid-cell level cropland area fraction and harvest seasons to investigate the relationship between agricultural income shocks and violent attacks by different violent actors. We find that violence in the cropland is associated with the price increase, and the effect is apparent during the early post-harvest season when the value of spoils to be appropriated is highest. Among considered perpetrators, we find political militias as the most likely force behind the seasonal political violence in Africa.
    Date: 2022–02
  29. By: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Abstract: This quarterly market report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of weekly and monthly retail prices of selected agricultural commodities that are important for food security and nutrition in Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in agricultural markets in Malawi.
    Keywords: MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, livestock, prices, food prices, chickens, eggs, retail prices, goat meat, livestock products, fish
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Paola Mallia (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Adoption of improved seed varieties has the potential to lead to substantial pro ductivity increases in agriculture. However, only 36 percent of the farmers that grow an improved maize variety report doing so in Ethiopia. This paper provides the first causal evidence of the impact of misperception in improved maize varieties on farm ers' production decisions, productivity and profitability. We employ an Instrumental Variable approach that takes advantage of the roll-out of a governmental program that increases transparency in the seed sector. We find that farmers who correctly classify the improved maize variety grown experience large increases in inputs usage (urea, NPS, labor) and yields, but no statistically significant changes in other agricul tural practices or profits. Using machine learning techniques, we develop a model of interpolation to predict objectively measured varietal identification from farmers' self reported data which provides proof-of-concept towards scalable approaches to obtain reliable measures of crop varieties and allows us to extend the analysis to the nationally representative sample.
    Date: 2022–03
  31. By: Diekert, Florian; Eymess, Tillmann; Goeschl, Timo; Gómez-Cardona, Santiago; Luomba, Joseph
    Abstract: Like many common-pool resources, the Lake Victoria fisheries are characterized by poor compliance with production input regulations that are intended to reduce overexploitation. To explore the use of input subsidies to increase compliance, we determine the subsidy level required to induce demand for legal fishing nets, thereby compensating fishermen for loss of productivity net of enforcement risk. Our study additionally tests the subsidy-enhancing effect of a norm-nudge. A new multiple price list mechanism for eliciting revealed willingness to pay for multiple units of a production input is developed, adapted to the demands of a challenging field setting, and implemented with 462 fishermen at 20 landings sites on the Tanzanian lakeshore. Consistent with the high prevalence of illegal fishing gear at our sites, we find a zero median demand for legal net panels at local market prices. The subsidy required to shift median demand to at least one legal net panel is a 21% discount. Norm-nudging generates no policy-relevant enhancement of the subsidy.
    Keywords: compliance; natural resource management; subsidies
    Date: 2022–03–09
  32. By: Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Gupta, Shweta; Barooah, Prapti
    Abstract: While the lockdown in Ghana due to COVID-19 was not as stringent or long as in other countries (at least up to June 2021), it has severely affected rural household incomes, including remittances. Almost three-quarters of households surveyed reported income loss due to the pandemic in Aug/Sep 2020. Use of savings, borrowing and asset sales were common. Women often relied on men’s savings as a coping strategy; government transfers were insignificant. Addressing COVID-19 in rural areas is hindered by a domestic water supply crisis. Approximately half of respondents reported being worried about water availability, changing their activities due to lack of water, not having enough drinking water, and not washing hands when necessary.
    Keywords: GHANA, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, impact assessment, rural areas, gender, women, men, household income, lockdown,
    Date: 2021
  33. By: François Libois (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Marie Baland (CRED - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, University of Namur); Nicolas Delbart (LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris); Subhrendu Pattanayak (Duke University [Durham])
    Abstract: Since 1993, Nepal has implemented one of the most ambitious and comprehensive program of decentralization of forest management in the world, which is widely considered a success story in terms of participatory management of natural resources. Using quasi-experimental methods, we first quantify the net gains in tree cover related to the program in the Hills and Mountains of Nepal, and describe their temporal evolution. We then discuss the mechanisms driving forest restoration, highlighting that, while community forestry played a role in increasing forest biomass and forest size, it also reduced demand pressures by altering energy choices.
    Keywords: Forest management,Community forestry,Nepal,Energy,Participatory development Forest management,Participatory development
    Date: 2022–03
  34. By: Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl; Herghelegiu, Cristina
    Abstract: We examine whether standards raise the quality of traded products by correcting market failures associated with information asymmetry on product attributes. Matching a panel of French firmproduct- destination export data with a dataset on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs), we find that such quality standards enforced on products by destination countries: (i) favor the export probability of high-quality firms provided that their productivity is high enough; (ii) raise the export sales of high-productivity high-quality firms at the expense of low-productivity and low-quality firms; (iii) improve the average quality of consumption goods exported by France. We then develop a simple new trade model under uncertainty about product quality, in which heterogeneous firms can strategically invest in quality signaling, to rationalize these empirical results on quality and selection effects.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2021–12–31
  35. By: Addey, Kwame Asiam; Shaik, Saleem; Nganje, William
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2022–03–30

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.